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SHELF IN 2017
D i re c to r G e n e ra l B e n te N y l a n d
11 january 2018
Main trends in 2017
• Record‐high Norwegian gas sales
• Increase in total oil and gas production
• Significant cost cuts
• Record number of development plans
• Too few exploration wells and small
discoveries
Oil price has doubled over the last two years
per barrel
DollarDollar per fat
100
Index (level in 2013=100)
80
60
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Forecast autumn 2013 Autumn 2017
High activity and stable investment level
250
200
Billion 2018‐NOK
150
100
Discoveries
Ongoing field developments
50
Fields in production (2014‐2017)
Fields in production before 2014
The Shelf 2016
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Stable exploration activities
50 70
45
60
40
Number of exploration wells
35 50
Billion 2018‐NOK
30
40
25
30
20
15 20
10
10
5
0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
200
Million barrels oe per day
Million Sm³ oe per year
150
2
100
1
50
0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Record‐high Norwegian gas sales
140
12
120
Billion Sm³ (40 MJ sales gas)
10
100
Billion Scf per day
8
80
60 6
40 4
20 2
0 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Long‐term production at a high level
300
5
250
4
Million Sm³ oe per year
200
Million bbl oe per day
3
150
2
Historic
100
Undiscovered resources
Resources in discoveries
1
50
Resources in fields
Reserves
0 0 The Shelf 2016
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Medium‐sized oil companies becoming more important
60
50
40
Number of companies
30
Small companies
20 Medium‐sized companies
European gas/power companies
10
Majors
0 Large Norwegian companies
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
*incl. ongoing changes/mergers
E X P LO R AT I O N
Few and small discoveries in 2017
Discoveries do not replace production
Average size of discoveries
120 600
Resource growth Production
100 500
Million Sm oe
Millioner Sm³ o.e.
80 400
3
Million Sm³ oe
60 300
40
200
20
100
0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
New seismic technology provides
new opportunities in “old acreage”
2007 2017
16
3D‐seismic aquired the last 5‐6 years
Exploration is profitable
2007‐2016
1800
1600
1400
Present value 2017, billion NOK
1200
Cash flow 4% discount rate 7% discount rate
1000
4% discount rate
800
7% discount rate
600
400
200
0
Total NCS North Sea Barents Sea Norwegian Sea
17
Much left to discover –
most of it in the North
18
Resource growth after 1990
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
Million Sm³ oe
8 000
6 000
Undiscovered resources
4 000
Contingent resources
2 000
Reserves
0 Sold and delivered
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Serie5
19
FIELDS AND NEW
DEVELOPMENTS
Five new fields on stream in 2017
Byrding Sindre
Source: Statoil Source: XVISION A/S 2010
Flyndre
Gina Krog Maria Source: Offshore Magazine
Johan Castberg Statoil
Ærfugl Aker BP
Bauge Statoil
Njord (Njord future) Statoil
Fenja VNG
Snorre (SEP) Statoil
Skogul Aker BP
Yme (New development) Repsol
Ekofisk Sør (2/4 VC) ConocoPhillips
Valhall flanke vest Aker BP
Many development wells – even in challenging times
200
180
160
Number of development wells
140
120
100
80
¾
on fields
60
40
20
Movable rig
0 Fixed rig
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
High reserve growth in 2017
1 400
1 200 7,5
1 000
6,0
Million Sm³ oil
billion bbl oil
800
4,5
600
3,0
400
Discoveries
1,5
200
Fields
0 0,0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
THE SHELF IN 2017
• High production in the years to come
• Gas record
• Significant cost cuts
• Many new field developments
• Need for more exploration
• Great opportunities in the North
25