Discussion on

Risk Assessment

BY,
USMAN ILYAS
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
UNIVERSITY OF MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGY, LAHORE
 Risk Analysis
• Technically speaking, risk analysis is different
from hazards and vulnerability analysis,
• focusing on how often specified events may
occur and the magnitude of their
consequences.
• Risk analysis may be based on quantitative or
qualitative data, or a combination of these
• Qualitative analysis uses descriptive scales to
describe the likelihood and magnitude of risks.
The Probability/Impact Matrix is an example
which can be quite simple to produce.
Probability/Impact Matrix
 Limitation of risk analysis
One limitation of risk analysis as it is often
practiced is that it does not take a broad view
of human vulnerabilities and capacities,
tending instead to focus on more visible and
quantifiable elements at risk, such as buildings
and physical or financial assets, and human
lives (although wider dimensions can be
incorporated into qualitative or semi-
quantitative models) (Twigg, 2004).
Other examples/presentations for
determining probability
 Case Study
• Fire risk assessment undertaken by the Laos
Urban Disaster Mitigation Program as part of
the Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Program of
ADPC in Vientiane
• 7 key risk factors were identified and these
were given a numeric value to arrive at a total
risk score for the 100 communities in the 4
urban districts of Vientiane.
• Scoring results classified half of the 100
communities in the high risk level and 6
communities as very high risk.
 Example of Fire Hazard Risk
Assessment in Chantabury, Laos PDR
• On the basis of this Vientiane City Fire Risk
Assessment, a community in Chantabury a
district was chosen for community level
assessment and fire risk prevention action
planning where in 11 fires have occurred
since 1989.
 Example of Fire Hazard Risk
Assessment in Chantabury, Laos PDR
Total Fire Hazard Rating
Mapping Community Disaster Risk
• The results of the Participatory Risk Assessment
(PRA) are usually put into a map. Colors are used
to indicate areas or delineate zones in the
community or ward which are high, moderate or
low risk to various threats or hazards or which are
safe or unsafe for settlements, economic
activities and other community functions. The
working groups in the community risk assessment
process discuss and agree on the criteria for high,
moderate or low risk to use.
Mapping Community Disaster Risk
• In the Laos Urban Disaster Mitigation Disaster
Program, Community assessment revealed the
following risk attributes—
• poor quality of the electrical wiring system (some
68 households do not have their own electric
meter),
• poor access for the fire truck and pedestrian in
the occurrence of a fire,
• buildings made of wood or 2 storey concrete-
wood and building density especially in the area
of Unit 2
 Cont….
• Risk levels were indicated by various colors: for
high risk - red; for medium risk - green; and for
low risk - blue. Houses with children and
elderly as well as community resources like the
Ban office, sources of water and sand, etc. for
fire prevention and fire fighting were indicated
in the map.
• Maps can also contain the safe evacuation
centers and the safe route to these shelters.
 Using the results of the participatory
risk assessment
• The Participatory Risk Assessment unites the
community (and other stakeholders) in
common understanding of local hazards
vulnerabilities and capacities. It is the
common take off point for sound planning and
implementation of appropriate and adequate
risk reduction measures.
 Basic steps involved are:
a) Identify the hazards and analyze its nature and
behavior
b) Determine the elements at risk and probably
damages
c) Determine conditions and factors of vulnerability.
Why can the elements at risk be damaged?
(physical, economic, social, motivational, reasons)
d) Identify existing coping strategies and
capacities/resources for risk reduction
e) Identify measures and interventions to reduce the
vulnerability of the elements at risk
f) Prioritize risk reduction measures to undertake:
immediate, short-term, medium-term, long-term
 Overview of DRR

Understand DRR from Practitioners point of view

Discuss the 4 STEPS in simplifying the meaning of

DRR…..
 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR)
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce
the damage caused by natural hazards like
earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones,
through an ethic of prevention.
78
Understanding DRR………4 STEPS
81
85
86
87
88
89
 In Conclusion………
Disaster Risk Reduction
• Wide range of measures to be adopted…
appropriate to each scale……… from household
to community…….district……
• Different measures for different
hazards……..with different location…
different socio-economic condition……

• Wide range of stakeholders need to be

involved…..…. family to community to local
authorities…NGOs……..
Everybody has a role to play in reducing
disaster risk.
͞ Reducing disaster risk and increasing
resilience to natural hazards in different
development sectors can have multiplier
effects and accelerate achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals.
͟ Ban Ki-moon Secretary General of the
United Nations
Everybody has a role to play in reducing
disaster risk.
“I took a loan to buy two cows under the drought
relief scheme…now we make a good income from
the milk, and don’t have to worry so much about
what will happen if the rains don’t come”

“Livelihoods was our priority, with the raised

income we build a machhan (raised platform) in
my house and also one for my livestock” Zorina,
Tangail, Bangladesh
"Disaster risk reduction is an obligation for all --
donors, governments and the private sector.
We cannot wait for more disasters to happen
to understand the benefits of Disaster Risk
Reduction policies.͟

-- Toni Frisch, Swiss Humanitarian Aid

Department
 Disaster Risk Reduction Context

Only 4% of the estimated $10 billion in

annual humanitarian assistance is devoted to
prevention and yet every dollar spent on risk
reduction saves between $5 and $10 in
economic losses from disasters
Disasters don't strike equally across the
globe; they hit the poor the hardest.
96
The worst natural disasters don't intentionally seek
out poor people. They just do the most damage to
people with the fewest resources.
98
THANKS