Background

Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world which is highly vulnerable to Natural
Disasters because of its Geographical location, Flat and low-lying landscape, Population density,
Poverty, Illiteracy, Lack of Institutional setup etc. In other words, the Physical, Social as well as
Economic conditions of Bangladesh are very typical to any of the most vulnerable countries to
Natural Disasters in the world. The total land area is 147,570 sq. km. consists mostly of
Floodplains (almost 80%) leaving major part of the country (with the exception of the north-
western highlands) prone to flooding during the rainy season. Moreover, the adverse affects of
Climate Change – especially High Temperature, Sea-level Rise, Cyclones and Storm Surges,
Salinity Intrusion, Heavy Monsoon Downpours etc. has aggravated the overall Economic
Development scenario of the country to a great extent.

Climate change in Bangladesh

Climate change occurs when changes in Earth's climate system result in new weather patterns
that remain in place for an extended period of time. This length of time can be as short as a few
decades to as long as millions of years. Since the industrial revolution the climate has
increasingly been affected by human activities driving global warming,[1] and the terms are
commonly used interchangeably in that context.
Climate change in Bangladesh is a pressing issue. According to National Geographic,
Bangladesh is one the most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change.[1] Bangladesh
being located on the Tropic of Cancer receives fairly direct radiation throughout the year and
maintains relatively high temperature.

Climatic Impacts:

Bangladesh experiences different types of Natural Disasters almost every year because of the
Global Warming as well as Climate Change impacts, these are:  

Floods / Flash Floods (Almost 80% of the total area of the country is prone to flooding).

Cyclones and Storm Surges (South and South-eastern Parts of the country were hit by Tropical
Cyclones during the last few years).

Salinity Intrusion (Almost the whole Coastal Belt along the Bay of Bengal is experiencing
Salinity problem).

Extreme Temperature and Drought (North and North-western regions of the country are
suffering because of the Extreme Temperature problem).
Sectoral Impacts

Agriculture and Fisheries:

 The economy of Bangladesh is based on Agriculture mainly, with two thirds of the population
engaged (directly or indirectly) on Agricultural activities. The impact of Climate Change on
Agricultural production in Bangladesh would be wide spread and devastating for the country’s
economy. Beside this, other impacts of Climate Change such as - Extreme Temperature,
Drought, and Salinity Intrusion etc. are also responsible for the declining crop yields in
Bangladesh. Temperature and Rainfall changes have already affected crop production in many
parts of the country and the area of arable land has decreased to a great extent. The Salinity
intrusion in the coastal area is creating a serious implications for the coastal land that were
traditionally used for rice production.
The fisheries sector has also experienced an adverse affect because of the impacts of Climate
Change. The fisheries sector contributes about 3.5% of the GDP in Bangladesh and people
depend on fish products in order to meet up majority of their daily protein requirements. There
are around 260 species of fish in the country and almost all the varieties are sensitive to specific
salt and freshwater conditions.

Water Resources and Hydrology:

In a high density country like Bangladesh, the effects of Climate Change on the Surface and
Ground water resources will be very severe and alarming. Changes to water resources and
hydrology will have a significant impact on the country’s economy, where people mostly depend
on the Surface water for Irrigation, Fishery, Industrial production, Navigation and similar other
activities.

Coastal Areas:

Almost one forth of the total population of the country live in the coastal areas of Bangladesh,
where majority of the population are some how affected (directly or indirectly) by Coastal
Floods / Tidal Surges, River-bank Erosion, Salinity, Tropical Cyclones etc. With the rise of Sea-
level  up to one meter only, Bangladesh could lose up to 15% of its land area under the Sea water
and around 30 million people living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh could become Refugees
because of Climate Change impacts. Agriculture, Industry, Infrastructure (School, Hospitals,
Roads, Bridges and Culverts etc.), Livelihoods, Marine Resources, Forestry, Biodiversity,
Human Health and other Utility services will suffer severely because of the same. Salinity
Intrusion from the Bay of Bengal already penetrates 100 kilometers inside the country during the
dry season and the Climate Change in its gradual process is likely to deteriorate the existing
scenario to a great extent. Moreover, the Bay of Bengal is located at the tip of the north Indian
Ocean, where severe Cyclonic storms as well as long Tidal waves are frequently generated and
hit the coast line with severe impacts because of the Shallow as well as Conical shape of the Bay
near Bangladesh.
Forestry / Biodiversity:

Bangladesh has got a wide diversity of Ecosystems including Mangrove forests at the extreme
south of the country. The “Sundarbans” a World Heritage, is the largest Mangrove Forest in the
world, comprising 577,00 ha of land area along the Bay of Bengal. A total of 425 species have
been identified there, the most significant is the famous Royal Bengal Tiger. Therefore, Climate
Change impacts will have negative effects on the Ecosystem of the Forest recourses in
Bangladesh while the Sundarbans is likely to suffer the most.

Urban areas:

Cities and Towns situated along the Coastal belt in Bangladesh are at the Front line of Climate
Change related Disaster impacts and could experience a severe damage directly because of the
Sea level Rise and Storm Surges at any time. Direct impacts may occur through the increased
Floods, Drainage congestion and Water logging as well as Infrastructure Damage during extreme
events. The important Urban sectors that suffered severely by the previous floods in Bangladesh
include Urban Infrastructure, Industry, Trade, Commerce and Utility services etc. As
consequence, it hampered usual productivity during and after major floods and hence increased
the vulnerability of the urban poor by many folds. It should be mentioned here that, around 40
per cent of the urban population in Bangladesh lives in the Slum and Squatter settlements of the
major cities which are highly prone to Disaster risk during Flooding further.

Vulnerable groups:

The Urban poor are therefore directly at the risk of Natural Disasters being enhanced by the
impacts of Climate Change - especially in the absence / shortage of the necessary Infrastructure
as well as Employment opportunity for them in the major cities of the country. In Bangladesh,
Women are especially Vulnerable because of the Gender inequalities in the Socio- economic and
Political institutions. During the 1991Cyclone and Storm surge in Bangladesh, the death rate in
case of women was almost five times higher than the men. Because men were able to
communicate with each other in the public spaces, but the information did not reach most of the
women timely.
Climate Change Fallout: 13.4cr people to be hit hard
WB report depicts grim picture

Climate change and Security issue

The climate change in Bangladesh creates insecurities for food, water, life, property, settlement,
livelihood assets, livelihoods and others. Climatic impacts reduce securities directly and
indirectly. Environmental degradation, degradation of land resources ultimately reduces food
securities, health securities etc and at the same time increases conflicts over resources and
livelihood persuasions. Following are limited elaborations of insecure domains;

Food security: Loss of crop due to flood, storm surge, cyclone, and drought are increasing every
year. Salinity and permanent inundation are also limiting crop production.

Water scarcity: Reduced precipitation, prolonged dry season and drought are resulting scarcity
of drinking water. Contamination of fresh water resources with saline water are reported in the
coastal aquifer.
Loss of property and life: An increasing number of people are suffering damage or loss to their
property and some time life. Increased cyclone, storm surges, floods, river bank erosion destroys
and damage peoples properties including land, house, cattle, and other livelihood assets and
living essentials. Frequent disasters increases damage and loss by many folds.

Land degradation and loss: Following the climate change, the river bank and costal erosion are
increasing at alarming rate. According to IPCC findings a 45 cm sea-level rise will inundate
almost 10.9% of our territory and will displace 5.5 million population of our coastal regions.
Salinity intrusion into the country side reached 100km and degrades land resources. Land use for
farming, shrimp and other uses in the declining context generates conflicts.

Loss of livelihoods: Land loss and degradation, scarcity of water, floods, and other hazards
reduces livelihood opportunities. The rough sea limits fishing opportunities. Health hazards,
malnutrition, access to services prior, during and after disasters reduces working days and
opportunities.

Insecurity of women: Women and disadvantaged groups are suffering more during disasters as
they don’t receive warning in time and women has to take care of their children, elderly and
disabled.

Insecurity of women: Women and disadvantaged groups are suffering more during disasters as
they don’t receive warning in time and women has to take care of their children, elderly and
disabled.

Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh

Climate change adaptation is a pressing issue in Bangladesh. The country is one of the most
impacted by climate change. Factors such as frequent natural disasters, lack of infrastructure,
high population density (166 million people living in an area of 147 000 km2 [1]), an extractivist
economy and social disparities are increasing the vulnerability of the country in facing the
current changing conditions. There, in almost every year, large regions suffer from more intense
events like cyclones, floods and erosion. The mentioned adverse events are slowing the
development of the country by bringing almost to collapse socio-economical and environmental
systems.[2]
Climate Change adaptation plays a crucial role in fostering the country's development. This is
already being considered as a synergic urgent action together with other pressing factors such as
the permanent threat of shocks – natural, economic or political- the uncertain impact of
globalization, and an imbalanced world trade impede higher growth rates.
The adaptation concept

The IPCC defines adaptation as the "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to

actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities". From this main definition, three types of adaptation are distinguished:

1. Anticipatory adaptation – Takes place before impacts of climate change are perceived. It

is also defined as proactive adaptation.
2. Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not occur from a conscious response to
climatic stimuli but is produced by ecological changes in natural systems and by market
or welfare changes in human systems. It is also defined as spontaneous adaptation.
3. Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a policy decision, based on
knowledge that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is
required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.

Specific adaptive measures

Paradigm shift from risk prevention to risk reduction
Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction may seem two different fields but however
both are similar in their objectives which is to build resilience in the face of hazards. The relation
between the two field in one study is explained as ‘Climate change adaptation requires the re-
shaping and re-designing of development, social and economic practices to respond effectively
to new or anticipated environmental changes. Likewise Disaster Risk Reduction seeks to
influence development decision-making and protect development aspirations from environment
related risks. The effectiveness of both adaptation and DRR are limited if they are not viewed
within the broader context of sustainable development.[11]
Bangladesh has shown important results on disaster risk mitigation and is in fact, one of the
world leaders in disaster management.[12] It has been made possible as the country changed its
disaster programs from prevention to risk reduction.[13] The deaths and damages by
natural catastrophes has been drastically reduced in comparison to 1970. Once highly dependent
on international aid for providing relief to the affected communities through ad-hoc relief
supports, the country soon realized the importance of establishing a culture of resilience to
mitigate the risk occurred from the catastrophes.
With a mission ‘to achieve a paradigm shift in disaster management from conventional response
and relief to a more comprehensive risk reduction culture, and to promote food security as an
important factor in ensuring the resilience of communities to hazards’ the government of
Bangladesh in collaboration with multilateral partners and civil society organizations working on
a direction to achieve 3 goals which are i. Saving lives, ii. Protecting investments iii. Effective
recovery and building.
Strong institutional setup
One of the major successes of Bangladesh on adaptation of climate change is a strong
institutional setup. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR) has a wide range
of programs on DRR. It has recently drafted a ‘National Plan for Disaster Management (2016-
2020)’ with a detail institutional framework on disaster management. According to the NPDM,
disaster management policy and activities is guided by several drivers including, ‘a) Disaster
Management Act 2012; b) Standing Orders on Disasters (SOD) first introduced in 1997 and then
revised in 2010; (SOD) first introduced in 1997 and then revised in 2010; c) National Plan for
Disaster Management 2010-2015; d) Disaster Policy Act 2015; e) SAARC Framework for
Action (SFA) 2006-2015; f) Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2016-
2030; g) Asian Regional Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction (ARPDRR); and the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs).[14]
Bangladesh is also supported by different international organizations such as United Nations,
World Bank, and so on. With help from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP),
Bangladesh developed a flood action plan initiating a culture of disaster management and risk
reduction. UNDP also supported Bangladesh to establish the Disaster Management Bureau.
[13]
 Bangladesh also has a large network of NGOs all through the country who are highly active in
supporting the people vulnerable from climate change.
Recommendation

Future trends are becoming clear, insofar as there is a need for more quantified spatial
specific information, especially on future changes in extremes. This information is
needed for improved flood and drought risk analyses. Therefore, we propose a climate
change micro-level downscaling analysis of the future climate scenarios for Bangladesh.
The output of this downscaling exercise is necessary for future water availability, food
security, flood risk analyses, and forest eco-systems.

The other major issue that needs to be seriously addressed is the inter-annual variability
ENSO. One of the biggest El Niño related threats is forest fire. Forest fires threaten many
ecologically-important areas, including habitats for rare species like tigers, and the smoke
they give off is a serious threat to local people’s health. Improved longer-term projection
based on El Niño variability is essential for adapting to forest hazards in Bangladesh.

It is also important to improve our understanding of emissions from fires in the region,
which would ultimately help improve climate models. It will also contribute to initiatives
like the United Nations Collaborative Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation program.