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March 25, 2011 – Equity Averages trade between February highs and March lows
It was Friday, February 18th when The Dow Industrial Average reached 12,391.29 with the
NASDAQ as high as 2840.51. It was Wednesday, March 16th when the Dow tested 11,555.48 with
the NASDAQ at 2603.50. The rebound since then has the Dow just 1.8% below its February high
with the NASDAQ 3.7% lower. At the high we had a ValuEngine Valuation Warning. At the lows
stocks were still fundamentally overvalued, and remain overvalued today. At the highs weekly
momentum for the Dow was at 9.5. Today weekly momentum has declined to 7.6, with a trend
below 8.0 a negative. February 18th was the Friday before the unrest in Egypt came to a head.
We reached the lows following Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. Since the
March lows these uncertainties continue with Libya and many other global problems all
bubbling under the stock market. Meanwhile at home the US housing market depression has
deepened, community banks remain extremely stressed and regional banks face new
assessments from the FDIC beginning in April.
Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are not operating under a ValuEngine Valuation
Warning, but 58.7% of all stocks are overvalued. In addition 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued with 5 by
double-digit percentages.
10-Year Note – (3.406) Weekly, annual, and semiannual value levels are 3.496 and 3.796 with daily,
and monthly risky levels at, 3.289 and 3.002.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1428.8) Comex Gold traded as high as $1.448.6 the Troy ounce on Thursday, which
is a new all time high. Daily and annual value levels are $1413.3 and $1356.5 with weekly, monthly
and quarterly pivots at $1440.7, $1437.7 and $1441.7, and semiannual risky level at $1452.6.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($105.28) Nymex crude oil remained below its March 7th high at $106.96 per
barrel. Monthly and semiannual value levels are $96.43, and $87.52 with annual and pivots at $99.91,
$101.92 and $103.39, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $107.14 and $110.87.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.4166) Weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4028 and 1.3227 with daily, semiannual
and monthly risky levels at 1.4210, 1.4624 and 1.4637.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,171) Daily, annual, quarterly, semiannual, and semiannual value levels are 11,914,
11,491, 11,395, 10,959, and 9,449 with weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 12,271, 12,741 and
13,890.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
• The Dow Industrial Average (12,171) Daily and annual value levels are 11,914 and 11,491
with weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,271 and 12,741. The Dow is 1.8% below its
February 18th high at 12,391.29.
• The S&P 500 (1309.7) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1281.5, 1262.5 and 1210.7
with weekly and monthly risky levels at 1330.7 and 1381.3. SPX is 2.6% below its February
high at 1,344.07.
• The NASDAQ (2736) My daily value level is 2657 with weekly, quarterly and monthly risky
levels at 2792, 2853 and 2926. Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.
The NASDAQ is 3.7% below its February high at 2840.51.
• The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2312) My daily value level is 2226 with weekly, quarterly, and
monthly risky levels at 2360, 2438 and 2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.
NDX is 3.8% below its February high at 2,403.52.
• Dow Transports (5166) Daily and quarterly value levels are 5111 and 4671 with weekly and
annual pivots at 5164 and 5179. Transports are 2.7% below its February high at 5306.65.
• The Russell 2000 (817.10) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 806.39, 784.16 and
765.50 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 842.72 and 850.79. Semiannual value levels are
631.62 and 567.74. The Russell 2000 is 2.5% below its February high at 838.00.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (437.41) My daily value level is 422.35 with
monthly, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 453.89, 462.98 and 465.93. Semiannual and
annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and 259.30. The SOX is 7.8% below its February high
at 474.33.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576

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