Benchmark MACC.912.S-CP.2.6

1
Benchmark MACC.912.S-CP.2.6
Reporting Category Statistics and Probability
Standard Conditional Probability & the Rules of Probability
Benchmark Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B’s

outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of
the model.
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC and GR items.
Benchmark Clarification Find the conditional probability of an event given frequency data by
identifying the possible outcomes and determining their respective
probabilities.
Content Limits Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.
Stimulus Attribute Tables and charts may be used.

Items may be set in either real-world or mathematical contexts.
Response Attributes Gridded response items will have fractional answers.

The odds of an event must be expressed as a fraction.
Fractional answers must be in simplified form.
2
SAMPLE ITEM
The state results for the FCAT 2.0 are shown in the table below. A student is considered
proficient if he obtains an Achievement Level of 3 or higher. What is the probability that an 8th
grade student was proficient on the math test in 2012? What are the odds that the student was
NOT proficient?
FCAT 2.0 Mathematics – Next Generation Sunshine State

Standards
FCAT 2.0 Percentage of Students
Number
Grad Mean by Achievement Level
Year of
e Developmental 1 2 3 4 5
Students
Scale Score
3 2011 202,719 201 1 25 31 16 9
9
2012 203,207 202 1 24 30 18 10
8
4 2011 198,969 214 1 23 28 20 10
9
4 2012 193,802 215 1 22 27 20 12
8
5 2011 198,520 221 1 25 28 18 10
9
2012 199,844 222 1 24 27 18 11
9
6 2011 197,668 227 2 24 26 18 9
2
6 2012 199,076 227 2 25 25 18 10
3
7 2011 194,484 236 2 24 28 18 10
0
2012 198,277 236 2 24 27 18 10
0
8 2011 195,479 243 2 22 30 16 10
2
8 2012 194,346 243 2 21 30 16 11
2
Answer, part 1:
30/100 + 16/100 + 11/100 = 57/100 or .57
Answer, part 2:
3
22/100 + 21/100 = 43/100
43/100 : 57/100 or 43 : 57
Reporting Statistics and Probability

Category
Number
Benchmark Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B), and interpret
the answer in terms of the model.
Also Assesses MACC.912.S-CP.1.2

or Assessed
by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC items.
Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.
Limits
Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using the addition rule.
Clarification
Stimulus Test items may include illustrations of the following: tables, lists, tree diagrams,
Attributes and other forms.
Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Attributes
Sample Item If P(A) = 0.24 and P(B) = 0.52 and A and B are independent,
what is P(A or B)?
(a) 0.1248
(b) 0.28
* (c) 0.6352
(d) 0.76
(e) The answer cannot be determined from the information given.
4
Solution: 0.24 + 0.52 – (0.24)(0.52)

Category
Domain Conditional Probability & the Rules of Probability
Number
Benchmark Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and
B) = P(A)P(B|A) = P(B)P(A|B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
Also Assesses MACC.912-CP.2.6/2.7, MACC.K12.MP.7.1

or Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC, GR, and FR items.
Content Limits Items may include multiple events or repeats of one event.
Benchmark Students will determine probabilities of single or multiple events using

Clarification probability addition and multiplication formulas.
Stimulus Items may be set in either real world or mathematical contexts. Items may be a
Attributes single event, multiple events, or a combination.
Response Responses will be in fraction or decimal form and should be reduced to

Attributes simplest form. Responses may be comprised of more than one answer. (find
probabilities of more than one item in a question)
Sample Item Questions 1 and 2 relate to the following: An event A will occur with
probability 0.5. An event B will occur with probability 0.6. The probability
that both A and B will occur is 0.1.
1. The conditional probability of A, given B

(a) is 0.5.
5
(b) is 0.3.
(c) is 0.2.
* (d) is 1/6.
(e) cannot be determined from the information given.
2. We may conclude that

(a) events A and B are independent.
(b) events A and B are disjoint.
* (c) either A or B always occurs.
(d) events A and B are complementary.
(e) none of the above is correct.
3.
SAMPLE ITEM
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale labels hurricanes with a 1-5 rating
based on their intensity. The overall probability that a hurricane is rated
1-4 is 0.985. The probability of a hurricane hitting Florida is 0.32. The
probability that a hurricane is rated a 5 and misses Florida is 0.01. Given
this information, create and complete a two-way frequency table and
calculate the probability that a hurricane hits Florida given that it has a
category 5 rating.
Answer:
Rating of 1-
Rating of 5 4
Hits Florida 0.005 0.315 0.32
Misses
Florida 0.01 0.67 0.68
0.015 0.985 1
Defining A1 = hits Florida

A2 = misses Florida
B = has rating of 5
Then
P(A1)P(B│A1)
P(A1│B) = -----------------------------------------
P(A1)P(B│A1) + P(A2)P(B│A2)
(.32)(.005/.32)
P(A1│B) = ----------------------------------------- = .333
(.32)(.005/.32) + (.68)(.01/.68)
Or
P(A1│B) = (.005/.015) = .333
Answer:
6
The probability that a hurricane hits Florida given that it has a category
5 rating is .333

Category
Number
Benchmark Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using
characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or
complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).
Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.4.1

or Assessed
by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC and FR items.

Limits
Benchmark Students will determine all possible outcomes of events.

Clarification

Attributes
Sample Item 3. What is the sample space of flipping a coin and rolling a die?
Answer: P(Coin and Dice ) = P(Coin U Dice) =

{H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
7

Category
Number
Benchmark Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and
B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this
characterization to determine if they are independent.

or Assessed
by

Limits
Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using the multiplication

Clarification rule.

Attributes
Sample Item Toss two balanced coins. Let A = head on the first toss, and let B = both tosses
have the same outcome. Are events A and B independent? Explain your
reasoning clearly.
Solution: Yes, A and B are independent since P(A and B) is (.5)(.5)-0=0.25 and
P(A)P(B)= (.5)(.5)=0.25
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SAMPLE ITEM 2 MC
Anthony attends a high school that has four periods in the school day. Last semester, his friend
took the same classes and recorded how often the teachers were absent. The data are shown in
the table below. There were 2 quarters in the semester and 45 teacher work days in each quarter.
Based on this data, what is the probability that all four of Anthony’s teachers will be absent on
any given day?
Perio 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter

Teacher Name Subject
d Absences Absences
1 Mrs. Rodriguez Algebra 5 4
2 Ms. Williams English 1 2
3 Mr. Keene US History 0 10
Earth
4 Mrs. Medina Science 3 1
A) 1/60750
B) 26/45
C) 26/90
D) 1/56782
Answer:
(9/90)(3/90)(10/90)(4/90) = 1/60750
10

Category
Number
Benchmark Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and
interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of
A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of
B given A is the same as the probability of B.

or Assessed
by

Limits

Clarification rule.

Attributes
Sample Item Use the conditional probability formula to demonstrate how the probability of
being dealt a queen given that the card is red, is the same as the probability of
being dealt a queen.
Answer: P(queen|red)= P (queen)·P(red) / P (red)

(4/52)·(26/52)/(26/52) = 4/52 = 1/13
P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13
11

Category
Number
Benchmark Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories
are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a
sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate
conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of
students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and
English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your
school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same
for other subjects and compare the results.
Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.2.1, MACC.K12.MP.4.1

or Assessed
by

Limits
Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using tables, lists, or tree
Clarification diagrams.

Attributes
Sample Item Here are the counts (in thousands) of earned degrees in the United States in a
recent year, classified by level and by the sex of the degree recipient:
Bachelor’s Master’s Professional Doctorate Total

Female 616 194 30 16 856
Male 529 171 44 26 770
Total 1145 365 74 42 1626
1. If you choose a degree recipient at random, what is the probability that the
person you choose is a woman?
Answer : 856/1626
2. What is the conditional probability that you choose a woman, given that the
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person chosen received a professional degree?
Answer : 30/74
3. Are the events “choose a woman” and “choose a professional degree

recipient” independent? How do you know?
Answer: No if they were independent then P(woman) = P(woman|professional

degree), the answers to #1 and #2 would be the same.
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Category
Number
Benchmark Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and
independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example,
compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance
of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.
Also Assesses MACC.912.S-CP.1.3 & MACC.912.S-CP.1.4

or Assessed
by

Limits
Clarification rule.

Attributes
Sample Item Researchers are interested in the relationship between cigarette smoking and
lung cancer. Suppose an adult male is randomly selected from a particular
population. Assume that the following table shows some probabilities
involving the compound event that the individual does or does not smoke
and the person is or is not diagnosed with cancer:
Event Probability
smokes and gets cancer 0.08
smokes and does not get cancer 0.17
does not smoke and gets cancer 0.04
does not smoke and does not get cancer 0.71
Suppose further that the probability that the randomly selected individual is
a smoker is 0.25.
(a) Find the probability that the individual gets cancer, given that he is a
smoker.
Answer : 0.08/0.25 = 0.32

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(b) Find the probability that the individual does not get cancer, given that he
is a smoker.
Answer : 0.17/0.25 = 0.68
(c) Find the probability that the individual gets cancer, given that he does
not smoke.
Answer : 0.04/0.75 = 0.053
(d) Find the probability that the individual does not get cancer, given that he
does not smoke.
Answer : 0.71/0.75 = 0.947
15

Category
Number
Benchmark Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound
events and solve problems.

or Assessed
by
Content Items shall be limited to no more than five different sets. Limit to real world
Limits contexts and age appropriate situations.
Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using the permutation and
Clarification combination formulas.
Response MC items of permutations should include answers using combination formula.

Attributes
Sample Item 1. Students are celebrating their academic success with ice cream sundaes.
There are 4 toppings available for their ice cream. Students may choose 2 out
of the 4 toppings for their ice cream. This includes an option for a double
helping of one topping. How many two-topping combinations can students
choose?
Answer : 4C2 + 4= 6 + 4 =10
2. The school is going to hold an Algebra competition. Each teacher is to

randomly select 2 students to represent their class. If Ms. Brown’s class has 10
boys and 14 girls, what is the probability that one boy and one girl will be
chosen to represent her class?
Answer : (10C1 · 14C1) / 24C2 = (10· 14) / 276 = 35/69

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Benchmark MACC.912.S-IC.1.1
Reporting Probability and Statistics

Category
Standard Making Inferences & Justifying Conclusions
Number
Benchmark Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population
parameters based on a random sample from that population.
Benchmark Students will calculate, summarize, and interpret data using measures of center
Clarification including mean and median and measures of spread including range, standard
deviation, and variance. Students will use these measures to make comparisons
and draw conclusions about data sets.

or Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR, GR, and MC items.
Content Limits Items may include calculations for mean, median, variance, and standard
deviation. Items may include the choice of which measure of center is the best
representation of a data set.
Clarification and spread.
Stimulus Items must be set in mathematical or real-world context.

Attributes
Response Responses will be rational numbers.
Attributes
Sample Items Sample Item 1 MC

The average grade point average (GPA) for 25 top-ranked students at a
local college is listed below. (Use the rounding rule for the mean).
3.80 3.77 3.70 3.74 3.70
3.86 3.76 3.68 3.67 3.57
3.83 3.70 3.80 3.73 3.67
3.78 3.75 3.73 3.65 3.66
3.75 3.64 3.78 3.73 3.64
Find the mean of the GPAs.
Sample Response 1
A. 3.7236
B. 3.764
*C. 3.724
D. 3.887
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Sample Response 1C
Item Context: Mathematics (Statistics)
Sample Item 2 MC
The average grade point average (GPA) for 25 top-ranked students at a
local college is listed below. (Use the rounding rule for the mean).
3.80 3.77 3.70 3.74 3.70
3.86 3.76 3.68 3.67 3.57
3.83 3.70 3.80 3.73 3.67
3.78 3.75 3.73 3.65 3.66
3.75 3.64 3.78 3.73 3.64
Find the median of the GPAs.
Sample Response 2
A. 3.7
*B. 3.73
C. 3.74
D. 3.75
Sample Response 2 B

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Sample Item Sample Item 3 FR

Summer income for 14 high school students is listed below:
1,208 2,400
1,337 3,020
1,055 456
810 1,765
1,208 987
2,343 1,654
734 1,356
Find the standard deviation. (Use the rounding rule for standard deviation).
7 1 9 . 2
Sample Response 3 719.2

Item Context Mathematics (Statistics)
Sample Item 4 FR
Summer income for 14 high school students is listed below:
1,208 2,400
1,337 3,020
1,055 456
810 1,765
1,208 987
2,343 1,654
734 1,356
Find the variance.

5 1 7 2 4 9
Sample Response 4 517249

Item Context Mathematics (Statistics)
19
* Teacher may access in the classroom.

Category
Number
Benchmark Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-
generating process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a
spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a
row cause you to question the model?
Also Assesses LACC.9.10.WHST.1.1, LACC.9.10.WHST.2.4

or Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR or MC items.
Content Limits Items may include calculations for mean, median, variance, and standard
deviation.
Clarification and spread. Students will use these measures to make comparisons and draw
conclusions about statistics and probability models.

Attributes
Response Responses may be written understanding of inferences conditions.
Attributes * Teacher may access in the classroom.
Sample Item
Suppose you have a population in which 60% of the people approve of gambling.
You want to take many samples of size 10 from this population to observe how the sample proportion
who approve of gambling varies in repeated samples.
*1. Describe the design of a simulation using the partial random digits table below to estimate the sample
proportion who approve of gambling. Then carry out five trials of your simulation.
20
6 0 0 9 1 9 3 6 5 1 5 4 1 2 3 9 6 3 8 8 5 4 5 3 4 6 8 1 6
3 8 4 4 8 4 8 7 8 9 1 8 3 3 8 2 4 6 9 7 3 9 3 6 4 4 2 0 0 6
8 2 7 3 9 5 7 8 9 0 2 0 8 0 7 4 7 5 1 1 8 1 6 7 6 5 5 3 0 0
6 0 9 4 0 7 2 0 2 4 1 7 8 6 8 2 4 9 4 3 6 1 7 9 0 9 0 6 5 6
6 8 4 1 7 3 5 0 1 3 1 5 5 2 9 7 2 7 6 5 8 5 0 8 9 5 7 0 6 7
*2. The sampling distribution is the distribution of all possible simple random samples of size 10 from
this population. What is the mean of this distribution?
Answer: p = 0.6 is the mean of the distribution, to find the sample mean average the results from
question 1.
Free Response Item
3. If you used samples of size 20 instead of size 10, which sampling distribution would give you a better
estimate of the true proportion (of people who approve of gambling)? Explain your answer.
Answer: Samples of size 20 would give better estimates because of decreased variability.
21

Category
Number
Benchmark Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys,
experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to
each.
Content Items may include research questions from surveys, observational studies, or
Limits experiments. Items may include sampling methods such as simple random,
systematic, stratified, or cluster.
Benchmark Students will use and compare surveys, experiments, and observational
Clarification studies and decide which questions each is designed to answer.
Student will use qualitative and quantitative measures to collect data
Students will choose the type of sampling from a variety of situations as well
as understand the reasoning behind random sampling.
Students will identify sources of bias, including sampling and non-sampling
errors.
Stimulus Items must be set in real-world context.

Attributes
Response Answers need to be situations that are possible.
Attributes
Sample Item 1. After a class receives the same lesson from the same teacher the class is
divided randomly into two equal sized groups. One group is given a multiple
choice test and the other group is given an essay test. Then the average of the
test scores from each group are compared.
What is the technique for gathering data in this situation?
A. survey
B. observational study
*C. experiment
D. survey/experiment
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2. Group businesses in Orlando, Fl according to type: medical, shipping,

retail, manufacturing, financial, construction, restaurant, hotel, tourism, other.
Then select a random sample of 10 businesses from each business type to
survey.
What type of sampling is being used in this situation?
A. simple random sampling

B. cluster sampling
C. systematic sampling
*D. stratified sampling
3. Students in grades 9-12 at an area high school were asked whether or not
they should have tougher classes to help improve their testing performance on
state assessments?
What form of bias was used in this situation?
A. type of question
B. language
*C. sample
D. misleading
23

Category
Number
Benchmark Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion;
develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random
sampling.

or Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using GR and MC items.
Content Limits Items may include confidence level and/or confidence interval. Items may
include intervals for the mean when the population standard deviation is
known and when the population standard deviation is not known. Items may
include confidence intervals for proportions also. Items may include finding
sample size needed for specific results.
Benchmark Students will create, explain and interpret confidence intervals of a mean or
Clarification proportion by understanding point estimate, confidence levels and sample size
when the population standard deviation is known and when the population
standard deviation is not known. Students will also interpret and apply the
maximum error of the estimate ("margin of error").

Attributes
Response Answers will include confidence levels in percentages, confidence intervals
Attributes with a mean or proportion estimate or sample sizes in whole numbers.
Sample Items
1. When people smoke, the nicotine they absorb is converted to cotinine, which
can be measured. A sample of 40 smokers has a mean cotinine level of 172.5.
Assuming the population standard deviation is known to be 119.5, what is the
90% confidence interval estimate of the mean cotinine level of all smokers?
A. 74.64 < x́ < 164.36

*B. 141.42 < x́ < 203.58
C. 166.49 < x́ < 178.51
D. 141.42 < x́ < 178.51
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Gridded Response
2. The music industry recently has adjusted to the increasing number of songs being downloaded
instead of being purchased on CDs. So, it has become important to estimate the proportion of
songs being currently downloaded. If we want to be 95% confident that the sample percentage is
within 1% point of the true population percentage of songs obtained by downloading, how many
randomly selected song purchases must be surveyed to determine the percentage downloaded?
Sample Response
9 6 0 4
25
Benchmarks: MACC.912.S-IC.2.5, & MACC.912.S-IC.2.6
Body of Statistics and Probability

Knowledge
Benchmark MACC.912.S-IC.2.5 & MACC.912.S-IC.2.6

Number
Benchmark MACC.912.S-IC.2.5: Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two
treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are
significant.
MACC.912.S-IC.2.6: Evaluate reports based on data.
Also assesses or LACC.910.WHST.1.1, LACC.910.WHST.2.4, LACC.910.WHST.3.9, and

assessed by MACC.K12.MP.3.1, MACC.912.S-IC.1.1
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using and MC, GR and FR items.
Benchmark Students will understand, create and analyze the null hypothesis and the
Clarification alternative hypothesis (basics of hypothesis testing).
Students will understand the p-value is the probability of getting a sample
statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis when the null
hypothesis is true. Students will understand p-value rules for decisions to
reject or not to reject the null hypothesis.
Students will decide whether a Type I error (occurs when you reject the
null hypothesis when it is true) and a Type II error (occurs if you do not
reject the null hypothesis when it is false) have occurred in the outcome of
the hypothesis testing.
Content Limits Items may include writing a null and alternative hypothesis for data or
interpreting a given null and alternative hypothesis.
Items may include stating the hypothesis, identifying the claim, computing
the test value, finding the p-value, making a decision on given information
and/or summarizing the results.
Attribute
Response Items may be writing the null and alternative hypothesis or analyzing the
Attributes given null and alternative hypothesis.
Answers may include the p-value and/or a decision to be made based on
the p-value.
26
Sample Item 1 FR
The average undergraduate cost for tuition, fees, room, and board for all accredited universities
was $26,025. A random sample in 2009 of 40 of these accredited universities indicated that the
mean tuition, fees, room, and board for the sample was $27,690 with a population standard
deviation of $5492. What is the null and alternative hypothesis for the conjecture?
A. H˳: µ= $26,025 and Ң: µ > $26,025

B. H˳: µ < $26,025 and Ң: µ = $26,025
C. H˳: µ =$26,025 and Ң: µ < $26,025
* D. H˳:µ = $26,025 and Ң: µ ≠ $26,025
Sample Item 2 FR
Using the statistics from sample item 1 and a 0.05 level of significance, what is the p-value
of this sample?
Sample Response
0. 0 2 7 4
Sample Item 3 MC
The average undergraduate cost for tuition, fees, room, and board for all accredited universities
was $26,025. A random sample in 2009 of 40 of these accredited universities indicated that the
mean tuition, fees, room, and board for the sample was $27,690 with a population standard
deviation of $5492. At a 0.05 level of significance, which of these statements is the correct
conclusion for the hypothesis test using the p-value?
* A. Reject the null hypothesis with p-value of 0.0274 with a significance level of
0.05.
B. Do not reject the null hypothesis with p-value of 0.0274 with a significance
level of 0.05.
C. Except the null hypothesis with p-value of 0.0274 with a significance level of
0.05.
D. Not enough information to formulate a conclusion.
Item Context Probability & Statistics

27
Sample Item 4 MC
The hypothesis of a sample gives the following conclusion for proportion of car crashes occurring
less than a mile from home:
The proportion of car crashes occurring less than a mile from home is 0.23.
What are the Type I and Type II errors which could happen with these results?
A. Type I error: Fail to reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes
occurring less than a mile from home is 0.23 when the proportion is actually
different from 0.23.
Type II error: Reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes occurring
less than a mile from home is 0.23 when that proportion is actually 0.23.
*B. Type I error: Reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes occurring
less than a mile from home is 0.23 when that proportion is actually 0.23.
Type II error: Fail to reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes
different from 0.23.
C. Type I error: Reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes occurring
less than a mile from home is 0.23 when that proportion is actually different
from 0.23.
Type II error: Fail to reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes
0.23.
D. Type I error: Fail to reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes
0.23.
Type II error: Reject the claim that the proportion of car crashes occurring
less than a mile from home is 0.23 when that proportion is actually different
from 0.23.
Item Context Probability & Statistics

28
Benchmark MACC.912.S-ID.1.1

Category
Standard Interpreting Categorical & Quantitative Data
Number
Benchmark Represent data with plots on the real number line (dot plots, histograms, and box plots).
Also MACC.K12.MP.4.1
Assesses or
Assessed by
Content Items will include raw data.

Limits
Benchmark Students will create a data distribution in the form of: dot plots, histograms, or box
Clarification plots.
Stimulus Data must be rational numbers

Attributes
Response Graphs must be appropriately labeled and draw to scale.
Attributes
Sample Item Here are the season home run statistics of two major league baseball players I in
increasing order. Draw parallel box plots to compare the two players.
Here are numbers for the first player:

16 19 24 25 25 25 33 33 33 34
34 37
37 40 42 45 45 46 46 49 73
Here are the numbers for the second player:

13 20 24 26 27 29 30 32 34 34
38 39
39 40 40 44 44 44 44 45 47
HRcodes
1 *
Draw
2 parallel box plots for the two players:
HomeRuns
15 30 45 60 75
29

Category
Number
Benchmark Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center
(median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) or five
number summaries of two or more different data sets.
Also MACC.912.S-ID.1.1, MACC.K12.MP.5.1

Assesses or
Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR and MC items.
Content Items may include calculating measures of center and spread.

Limits
Benchmark Students will calculate measures of center and spread of multiple data sets and
Clarification compare the results.

Attributes
Response Answers may include mean, median, IQR, and standard deviation.
Attributes
Sample Item Sample Item 1 MC
The average grade point average (GPA) for 25 top-ranked students at a local
college is listed below.
3.80 3.77 3.70 3.74 3.70
3.86 3.76 3.68 3.67 3.57
3.83 3.70 3.80 3.73 3.67
3.78 3.75 3.73 3.65 3.66
3.75 3.64 3.78 3.73 3.64
Find the five-number summary for the GPAs.
Sample Response 1
A. 3.64, 3.675, 3.73, 3.775, 3.86
*B. 3.57, 3.67, 3.73, 3.775, 3.86
C. 3.64, 3.67, 3.73, 3.775, 3.80
D. 3.57, 3.67, 3.73, 3.775, 3.9
Sample Response 1 B
30
2. Use graphs and numerical summaries to describe how the following three data
sets are similar and how they are different.
A: 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17

B: 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 16, 17
C: 5, 5, 5, 11, 17, 17, 17
Answer:
Similar- Each set has the same mean of 11 and the same median of 11 all
three sets are symmetric. All three sets have the same minimum value of 5
and maximum value of 17.
Different – They all have different standard deviations (spread)

A. 4.32, B. 5.07, C. 6.0.
3. Sample Item MC
Which statement describes the histogram appropriately?
*A. The histogram is skewed to the right (positively skewed).

B. The histogram is skewed to the left (negatively skewed).
C. The histogram is a normal distribution.
D. The histogram is bimodal.
31

Category
Number
Benchmark Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets,
accounting for possible effects of extreme data points (outliers).
Also MACC.K12.MP.4.1, MACC.912.S-ID.1.2

Assesses or
Assessed by
Content Items may include identifying outliers from a set of data in a graph such as a
Limits histogram or box-and-whisker plot. Items may also include what effect adding a
higher or lower value have on a particular mean, median, mode or range.
Benchmark Students will identify outliers, the possible reasons for them and what effect they
Clarification have on the mean, median, mode and range of data.

Attributes
Response Answers will include numerical outliers, reasons for outliers, or effect of specific
Attributes outlier on mean, median, mode or range of data.
Sample Item Summer income for 14 high school students is listed below:
1,208 2,400
1,337 3,020
1,055 456
810 1,765
1,208 987
2,343 1,654
734 1,356
Which of these statements is true?

A. 456 is an outlier.
*B. 3020 is an outlier.
C. 456 and 3020 are outliers.
D. There are no outliers.
32

Category
Number
Benchmark Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution
and to estimate population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for
which such a procedure is not appropriate. Use calculators, spreadsheets, and
tables to estimate areas under the normal curve.
Assesses or
Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR, GR, and MC items.
Content Items may include finding area under a curve between z-scores, finding z-scores
Limits with given probability or finding specific data values with given probability.
Items may include students analyzing graphs with z-sores, data values or
probabilities.
Benchmark Students will identify the properties of a normal distribution, find area under the
Clarification standard normal distribution, find probabilities of a variable under a normal
distribution, and find specific data values for given percentages using the standard
normal distribution.

Attributes
Response Items may be in decimal or percentage form. Items should specify whether the
Attributes answer expected is in decimal or percentage form. Z-scores may be negative.
What is the probability (in decimal form) with the given information
using the standard normal distribution?
P (-2.46 < z < 1.74)
Sample Response
0 . 9 5 2 1
33
Sample Item 2 MC
For men aged between 18 and 24 years, serum cholesterol levels (in
mg/100mL) have a mean of 178.1 and a standard deviation of 40.7 (based in
data from the National Health Survey). What is the z-score corresponding to
a male, aged 18-24 years, who has a serum cholesterol level of 259.0
mg/100mL?
Sample Response 2
A. -1.99
*B. 1.99
C. 6.36
D. 80.9
Sample Response 2 B
Sample Item 3 FR
Women’s heights have a mean of 63.6 inches and a standard deviation of 2.5
inches. What is the z-score corresponding to a woman with a height of 70
inches?
Sample Response 3
2 . 5 6
Sample Response 2.56

34

Category
Number
Benchmark Summarize categorical data for two categories in two-way frequency tables.
Interpret relative frequencies in the context of the data (including joint, marginal,
and conditional relative frequencies). Recognize possible associations and trends
in the data.
Also MACC.K12.MP.4.1, LACC.910WHST.3.9

Assesses or
Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR and MC items.
Content Items will be presented in two-way frequency tables.

Limits
Benchmark Students will calculate and interpret frequencies found in two-way tables.
Clarification
Attributes
Response Answers may be in decimal or percentage form. Answer may require written
Attributes statements.
Sample Item In 2006, an electronic replay system debuted in both men’s and women’s
professional tennis. Each player is allowed two unsuccessful challenges per set.
Here are some data on the results of challenges made during the first few months
of the new system.
Successful Unsuccessful
Men 201 288
Women 126 224
1. Calculate the marginal distribution (in percents) for each of the two variables.
Answer: Gender- Men 489/839 = 58.28%, Women 350/839 =41.72%
Challenge results- Successful : 327/839 = 38.97%, Unsuccessful- 512/839 =
61.03%
2. Write a sentence describing what each marginal distribution tells you.
A higher percentage of men make challenges than women. 61% of all
challenges are unsuccessful.
35
3. Write a few sentences describing the relationship between gender and

challenge results.
Of the men who made challenges about 41% were successful. Only 36% of
the women who made challenges were successful.
36
Benchmark MA.912.S-ID.2.6 & MACC.912.S-ID.3.7
Reporting Category Probability and Statistics

Standard MACC.912.S-ID.2.6 & MACC.912.S-ID.3.7
1. Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and
describe how the variables are related.
a. Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve
problems in the context of the data. Use given functions or choose a
function suggested by the context. Emphasize linear, quadratic, and
exponential models.
b. Informally assess the fit of a function by plotting and analyzing
residuals.
c. Fit a linear function for a scatter plot that suggests a linear
association.
MACC.912.S-ID.3.7
2. Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant
term) of a linear model in the context of the data.
Also Asses MACC.K12.MP.4.1, MACC.K12.MP.5.1, MACC.K12.MP.8.1
Benchmark Students will graph data on a scatter plot, describe the association,
Clarification and interpret the slope.
Content Limits
Data points limited to one, two, or three digits
Stimulus Attributes Tables and charts may be used.
Items may be set in either real-world or mathematical contexts.
Response Attributes Equations may be presented in standard or slope-intercept form.

* Teacher may assess in the classroom.
37
SAMPLE ITEM
Mrs. Santiago would like to know how well her Algebra students will perform on the state’s
End-of-Course Assessment. She has decided to gather some data from the previous year in order
to determine a least squares regression line. She plans to use the students’ scores on her
classroom test to predict how well they will do on the End-of-Course Assessment. Given the
data in the table below
I. Graph the data on a scatter plot and describe how the variables are related.
Answer: *Teacher may assess in the classroom.
II. Find the equation of the least squares regression line.
III. Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of this linear model in the context
of the data.
Classroom Test Algebra EOC Scale

Score Score
90 450
80 425
75 425
40 350
80 430
85 440
II.
A) y = .11x + 14.73
B) y = 14.73x + .11
C) y = 271.17x + 1.98
D) y = 1.98x + 271.17
Answer:
D)
Solution:
(n∑xy)-(∑x∑y) (6 * 192,175) – (450 * 2520)

m = ---------------------- = ---------------------------------------- = 1.98
(n∑x2)-(∑x)2 (6 * 35350) – (450)2
38
(∑y∑x2)-(∑x∑xy) (2520 * 35350) – (450 * 192,175)

b= ------------------------ = ---------------------------------------------- = 271.17
(n-∑x2)-(∑x)2 (6 * 35350) – (450)2
y = mx + b = 1.98x + 271.17
III.
Slope: The Algebra EOC Scale Score will rise 1.98 points for every one point increase on
the classroom test score.
Y-Intercept: When the classroom test score is 0, the Algebra EOC score will be 271.17
39
Benchmark MACC.912.S-ID.3.8 & MACC.912.S-ID.3.9

Category
Number
Benchmark MACC.912.S-ID.3.8: Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation
coefficient of a linear fit.
MACC.912.S-ID.3.9: Distinguish between correlation and causation.
Build on students’ work with linear relationships in eighth grade and introduce the
correlation coefficient. The focus here is on the computation and interpretation of
the correlation coefficient as a measure of how well the data fit the relationship.
The important distinction between a statistical relationship and a cause-and-effect
relationship arises in S.ID.9.
Assesses or
Assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR, GR, or MC items.
Content Items may include calculating the correlation coefficient of a set of paired data
Limits and the interpretation of the relationship between the two variables.
Benchmark Students will calculate the correlation coefficient of a set of paired data (x,y) to
Clarification determine the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables.
Student will also use scatter plots to aid their interpretation of the data.

Attributes
Response Answers will include the correlation coefficient and/or the interpretation of a
Attributes given correlation coefficient.
The table below lists the numbers of murders and the population sizes (in
hundreds of thousands) for large cities in America during a recent year.
What is the correlation coefficient of the data?
Murders 25 26 40 25 11 64 28 65 25 6 590
8 4 2 3 1 8 8 4 6 0
Populatio 4 6 9 6 3 29 15 38 20 6 81
n
40
Sample Response 1
0 . 7 2 7
Sample Response 1 0.727

There is a strong positive relationship between the number of murders
and the population size of large American cities.
41
Benchmark MACC.912.S-MD.1.1
*Teacher may assess in the classroom.

Standard Using Probability to Make Decisions
Benchmark Number MACC.912.S-MD.1.1
Benchmark Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical

value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability
distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions.
Also assesses or MACC.K12.MP.4.1

assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR or MC items
Benchmark Students will graph a random variable distribution on a scatter plot.

Clarification
Content Limits Items may include probability distributions or raw data. Items may include
discrete random variables, discrete uniform variables, binomial or
exponential data.
Stimulus Attribute Items must be set in mathematical or real-world context.
Response Attributes Items may be in fraction or decimal form.

42
Sample Item 1 FR
The probabilities that a randomly selected customer purchases 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 items at a

convenience store are 0.32, 0.12, 0.23, 0.18, and 0.15, respectively.
(a) Identify the random variable of interest. X = ________. Then construct a probability
distribution (table), and draw a probability distribution histogram.
Solution:
X= number of items purchased.
43

Benchmark Number MACC.912.S-MD.1.2
Benchmark Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of
the probability distribution.

assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC and GR items
Benchmark Students will use the formula to calculate the expected value (mean) and
Clarification variance of a random variable.
exponential data.
Sample Item 1 MC
X 4 5 6 8 10
P(X) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.15 0.05
A) What is the mean of the Probability Distribution?
Solution: 4(0.4) + 5(0.3) +6(0.1) + 8(0.15) + 10(0.05) = 5.4

44
What is the variance of the Probability Distribution?
A. 0.35
B. 1.71
* C. 2.94
D. 5.4
Solution: (4-5.4)²·(0.4) + (5-5.4)²·(0.3) + (6-5.4)²·(0.1) + (8-5.4)²·(0.15) + (10-5.4)²·(0.05) = 2.94
Item Context Probability and Statistics

45
*Teacher will assess in the classroom.

Benchmark Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a

sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be calculated; find the
expected value. For example, find the theoretical probability distribution for
the number of correct answers obtained by guessing on all five questions of
a multiple-choice test where each question has four choices, and find the
expected grade under various grading schemes.

assessed by
Benchmark Students will use the formula to calculate the expected value (mean) of a
Clarification random variable.
exponential data.
Sample Item *Teacher will assess in the classroom.

46
*Teacher will assess in the classroom.

Benchmark Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a

sample space in which probabilities are assigned empirically; find the
expected value. For example, find a current data distribution on the number
of TV sets per household in the United States, and calculate the expected
number of sets per household. How many TV sets would you expect to find
in 100 randomly selected households?

assessed by
exponential data.
Sample Item *Teacher will assess in the classroom.

47
Benchmark MACC.912.S-MD.2.5 & MACC.912.S-MD.2.6

Benchmark MACC.912.S-MD.2.5 : Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by

assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
a. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For example, find the
expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast-food
restaurant.
b. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For
example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile
insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor
or a major accident.
MACC.912.S-MD.2.6: Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g.,

drawing by lots, using a random number generator).

assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using GR, FR or MC items.
exponential data.
Sample Item 1
1. A box contains ten $1 bills, five $2 bills, three $5 bills, one $10 bill, and one $100 bill. A person is charged
$20 to select one bill.
a) Calculate the expected value and interpret this value in the context of this problem.
b) Is the game fair?
Solution:
48
a) $1(10/20) + $2(5/20) + $5(3/20) +$10(1/20) +$100(1/20) = $7.25 is the expected amount a person
would collect.
b) No the game is not fair because the expected winnings are less than the amount charged to play.
49

Benchmark Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product
testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
Also assesses or MACC.912.S-ID.1.4, MACC.K12.MP.1.1

assessed by
Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using FR, GR, or MC items
Benchmark Students will analyze decisions and strategies using the probability formulas,
Clarification and/or z-scores to solve real world statistics problems.
Content Limits Items may include finding z-scores, confidence intervals, or p-values from
hypothesis test.

Sample Item Sample Item 1 GR
Engineers must consider the breadths of male heads when designing

motorcycle helmets. Men have head breadths that are normally distributed
with a mean of 6.0 inches and a standard deviation of 1.0 inch (survey data
from Gordon Churchill). 100 men are randomly selected. What is the
probability that the men have a mean head breadth less than 6.2?
Sample Response
0 . 9 7 7 2

Benchmark MACC.912.S-CP.2.6

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1

Reporting Category Statistics and Probability

Standard Conditional Probability & the Rules of Probability

Benchmark Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B’s

Item Types This benchmark will be assessed using MC and GR items.

Stimulus Attribute Tables and charts may be used.

Response Attributes Gridded response items will have fractional answers.

FCAT 2.0 Mathematics – Next Generation Sunshine State

30/100 + 16/100 + 11/100 = 57/100 or .57

22/100 + 21/100 = 43/100

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.912.S-CP.1.2

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Solution: 0.24 + 0.52 – (0.24)(0.52)

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Domain Conditional Probability & the Rules of Probability

Also Assesses MACC.912-CP.2.6/2.7, MACC.K12.MP.7.1

Benchmark Students will determine probabilities of single or multiple events using

Response Responses will be in fraction or decimal form and should be reduced to

1. The conditional probability of A, given B

2. We may conclude that

Defining A1 = hits Florida

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.4.1

Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.

Benchmark Students will determine all possible outcomes of events.

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Answer: P(Coin and Dice ) = P(Coin U Dice) =

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.2.1

Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.

Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using the multiplication

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Perio 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.7.1

Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.

Benchmark Students will determine probable outcomes of events using the multiplication

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Answer: P(queen|red)= P (queen)·P(red) / P (red)

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.2.1, MACC.K12.MP.4.1

Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Bachelor’s Master’s Professional Doctorate Total

person chosen received a professional degree?

3. Are the events “choose a woman” and “choose a professional degree

Answer: No if they were independent then P(woman) = P(woman|professional

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.912.S-CP.1.3 & MACC.912.S-CP.1.4

Content Limit to real world contexts and age appropriate situations.

Response Responses may be in decimal or reduced fraction form.

Answer : 0.08/0.25 = 0.32

Answer : 0.17/0.25 = 0.68

Answer : 0.04/0.75 = 0.053

Answer : 0.71/0.75 = 0.947

Reporting Statistics and Probability

Also Assesses MACC.K12.MP.1.1, MACC.K12.MP.8.1

Response MC items of permutations should include answers using combination formula.

Answer : 4C2 + 4= 6 + 4 =10

2. The school is going to hold an Algebra competition. Each teacher is to

Answer : (10C1 · 14C1) / 24C2 = (10· 14) / 276 = 35/69

Reporting Probability and Statistics