Ain Shams Engineering Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

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Ain Shams Engineering Journal

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Engineering Physics and Mathematics

Effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff

Jinping Zhang a,b, Hang Zhang a, Honglin Xiao a,⇑, Hongyuan Fang a, Yuping Han c, Lei Yu a
a
School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, High-tech District, No. 100 Science Road, Zhengzhou City 450001, Henan Province, China
b
Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection & Regional Coordinated Development, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou City 450001, Henan Province, China
c
North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengdong New District, No. 136 Jinshui East Road, Zhengzhou City 450046, Henan Province, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: To reveal the effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff, the abrupt change of the correlation
Received 1 August 2020 between rainfall and runoff is discussed. Then, according to the correlation between rainfall and runoff
Revised 29 September 2020 with the different rainfall states, the multivariate dynamic regression models of rainfall and runoff are
Accepted 4 October 2020
constructed, and the effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff are analyzed. The results
Available online xxxx
show that (1) the correlation between rainfall and runoff changed abruptly in 1980; (2) the rainfall
changes lead to runoff reductions, and runoff decreased by 15.79% under the runoff-yield condition Ⅰ from
Keywords:
1959 to 1979, while it decreased by 8% under the runoff-yield condition Ⅱ from 1980 to 2013; (3) the
Rainfall
Runoff
change of the runoff-yield conditions lead to the runoff reduction of 41.16% from 1959 to 1979, while
Runoff-yield condition it leads to a decrease in runoff by 35.58% from 1980 to 2013.
Multivariate dynamic Ó 2020 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams Uni-
versity. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/
by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction
On April 1, 2017, the Central Committee of the Communist Party
of China and the State Council issued a circular calling for the estab-
lishment of the Xiong’an New Area in the Hebei Province as an area
of national significance (similar to the Shenzhen Special Economic
Zone and Pudong New Area in Shanghai). The Xiong’an New Area
is located in the Baoding region at the North China Plain in the
Haihe River Basin, which suffers serious water shortage. Water
from the upstream reservoir guarantees the area. However, due to
climate change and human activities, runoff from the upstream
mountain area has been rapidly decreasing for the past 30 years.
For example, the average runoff observed at the Zhongtangmei
gauge in the upper reaches of the Xidayang Reservoir in the Xion-
g’an New Area decreased by 53.9% from 1980 to 2013 compared
with that from 1959 to 1979, while rainfall remains about
450 mm with little changes. So the correlation between rainfall
and runoff (CRR) must be assessed to address such water issues.
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: xhljy728@163.com, zhjp@zzu.edu.cn (H. Xiao).
Peer review under responsibility of Ain Shams University.
Production and hosting by Elsevier
The variation of the hydrological cycle due to the changing envi-
ronment has become a hot issue in hydrology and water resources
research. Climate change affects the elements of the hydrological
cycle such as rainfall, evaporation, etc. [13,12]. It thereby changes
water resources and river flow. Human activities exert a great
influence on river runoff mechanisms mainly by changing the
underlying surfaces [4,19]. The methods that have been used in
recent years to study the CRR include the statistical regression
[14,11,9,1,5,2], the experimental watershed comparisons [10,8],
and the hydrological model simulations, etc. [15,16,18,7]. The sta-
tistical regression methods require the comprehensive and accu-
rate hydrological data series, and the appropriate experimental
watersheds are difficult to select. Hydrological models have the
higher simulation accuracy but require more data for the calibra-
tion of the model parameters. Thus, in this study, the multivariate
dynamic regression model (MDRM) was applied to determine the
CRR with the changing environment.
The Xidayang Reservoir (Fig. 1) in the upper reaches of the
mountainous part of the Daqinghe River Basin with a control area
of 4420 km2 is an important water source of the Xiong’an New
Area. Two rivers, the Tanghe and Tongtian, flow into the reservoir.
The Tanghe River is the main tributary of the southern branch of
the Daqinghe River Basin, which originates at the foot of the Tai-
hang Mountains in Shanxi Province, China, and flows into the
Xidayang Reservoir together with the Tongtian River. Since 2012,
the Comprehensive Management Project of the Wangkuai-
xidayang Reservoir has been basically completed. Since then, if

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.010
2090-4479/Ó 2020 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al., Effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff, Ain Shams Engineering Journal, https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.010
J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al. Ain Shams Engineering Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 1. Location of the Zhongtangmei gauge.

Fig. 2. The rainfall and runoff data at the Zhongtangmei gauge.

the Wangkuai Reservoir has met the basic water supply of Baiyang-
dian, the Xidayang Reservoir has undertaken the emergency water
needed for Baiyangdian. The Zhongtangmei is the entry gauge of
the Xidayang Reservoir. It is about 23 km from the Xidayang Reser-
voir, its inflowing runoff changes have great influence on the water
volume in the reservoir. Therefore, the aims of this paper are that
using the data series (Fig. 2) of rainfall and runoff from 1959 to
2013 at Zhongtangmei guage, the changes of CRR are analyzed
firstly, then the MDRMs of rainfall and runoff with different rainfall
and runoff-yield conditions are constructed. Finally, the effects of
rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff are discussed.
2. Mathematical methods
variables in the same period plotted in a rectangular coordinate
system [6,17,3]. If two groups of sample data series of two given
variables are directly proportional in the same period of time, the
cumulative values of the two variables can be expressed as a
straight line in a rectangular coordinate system, and their slope
represents the proportionality constant. If the slope suddenly
changes, the year t corresponding to the change of slope is the time
that the CRR changes abruptly.
Assumption that two variables X and Y, corresponding to differ-
ent years of the value of X i (i = 1, 2, . . ., N) and Y i (i = 1, 2, . . ., N), the
0 0
cumulative sequences X i and Y i can be obtained as:
X
n
X 0i ¼ Xi; n ¼ 1; 2; . . . N ð1Þ
i¼1

2.1. Double cumulative curve method

X
n
Y 0i ¼ Y i; n ¼ 1; 2; . . . N ð2Þ
The double cumulative curve method (DCCM) describes the i¼1
relationship between the continuous cumulative values of two
2
J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al. Ain Shams Engineering Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 3. Flow chart of the study framework.

The DCCM provides the correlation curve of the accumulated
values of the two variables in a rectangular coordinate system.
2.2. Multivariate dynamic regression model
Different rainfall conditions produce different runoff volumes.
The regression equation of rainfall and runoff should be estab-
lished according to the amount of rainfall. Meanwhile, many fac-
tors can affect the runoff production process such as the
groundwater table, evaporation, water and soil conservation area,
etc. Therefore, the different MDRMs are needed to describe the
runoff production processes under the different runoff-yield condi-
tions. So in the study, rainfall is classified into various states firstly,
then the linear regression equation for rainfall and runoff can be
constructed. The MDRMs of various rainfall states can be con-
structed as follows:
2.3. Study framework
The study framework is shown in Fig. 3:
(1) An abrupt change of the CRR is determined using the DCCM.
Thus, two periods with the different runoff-yield conditions
are obtained.
(2) Using the anomaly percentage method, rainfall is classified
into three states: rich, normal, and poor.
(3) The MDRMs of these two periods (1959–1979, 1980–2013)
are constructed with various rainfall states.
(4) Runoff of the two periods with various rainfall states is cal-
culated and compared with the observed runoff to evaluate
the effects of rainfall and runoff -yield on runoff.
(5) Conclusions are drawn about the effects of rainfall and
runoff-yield on runoff.

Rt ¼ a0 þ a1 Pt þ a2 Pt1 þ a3 Pt2 ; Pt < P poor ð3Þ 3. Multivariate dynamic regression model construction

Rt ¼ b0 þ b1 Pt þ b2 Pt1 þ b3 Pt2 ; Ppoor 6 Pt 6 Prich ð4Þ 3.1. Classification of the rainfall states

Rt ¼ c0 þ c1 Pt þ c2 Pt1 þ c3 Pt2 ; Prich 6 P t ð5Þ To identify the CRR, the rainfall states must be classified with
the anomaly percentage method. The anomaly percentage of rain-
where a0 , a1 , a2 , a3 , b0 , b1 , b2 , b3 , c0 , c1 , c2 , and c3 are the regression
fall can be calculated as:
coefficients; Rt is the t-th year’s runoff; Pt is the t-th year’s rainfall;

Pt1 is the t – 1-th year’s rainfall; P t-2 is the t  2-th year’s rainfall; Pi  P
Ppoor is the threshold of a poor year; and P rich is the threshold of a rich gi ¼   100% ð6Þ
year. P

3
J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al. Ain Shams Engineering Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

where gi is the anomaly percentage of rainfall, Pi is the amount of

rainfall in the i-th year, and P is the mean annual rainfall. Based
on the Chinese ‘‘Standard for hydrological information and hydro-
logical forecasting” (GB/T22482-2008), the annual rainfall state
can be classified as rich year with gi > 15%, normal year with
15%  gi  15%, and poor year with gi < 15%.
3.2. Classification of the runoff-yield conditions
According to Fig. 4, the CRR change abruptly in 1980, so the
runoff-yield conditions can be divided into two periods:
(1) Period from 1959 to 1979: human activities interfered less
with water resources due to the less-developed economy
and society. Therefore, the runoff-yield condition formed
by the climate and underlying surfaces during this period
is called runoff-yield condition Ⅰ (RYCⅠ).
(2) Period from 1980 to 2013: Because of the implementation of
the Chinese economic reform policy, the society and econ-
omy develop rapidly, and human beings started to use water
greatly. Therefore, the runoff yield condition based on the
climate and underlying surfaces during this period is called
runoff yield condition Ⅱ (RYCⅡ).
3.3. Multivariate dynamic regression model construction process
Prior to the dynamic regression analysis, the correlations
between the current year’s runoff (CYRUN) and the current year’s
rainfall (CYRAIN), the CYRUN and the previous year’s rainfall
(PYR), and the CYRUN and the previous two years’ rainfall (PTYR)
are analyzed and discussed. Table 1 shows the multivariate coeffi-
cient matrix of the CRR under the different runoff-yield conditions.
The results presented in Table 1 show that in the rich year, the
CRR between the CYRUN and the CYRAIN under RYCⅠ is the largest
value of 0.682, and the CRR between the CYRUN and PYR is 0.38.
This means that the CYRUN is greatly influenced by the CYRAIN
and the PYR. In the rich year, each rainfall may be large, resulting
in the infiltration-excess runoff, even in the storage-excess runoff
locally flowing into the river, thus a strong positive correlation
presents between the CYRUN and the CYRAIN. Meanwhlie, the
baseflow of the Tanghe River originates from the deep groundwa-
ter formed by the PYR, so the positive correlation between the
CYRUN and the PRY. The CYRUN and the PTYR are negatively cor-
related, which contrasts the hydrologic principle. Under the RYCⅡ,
the CRR between the CYRUN and the CYRAIN and between the
CYRUN and the PYR in the rich year are similar to those under
the RYCⅠ. However, the smaller positive coefficient is obtained for
the correlation between the CYRUN and the PTYR, this means that
the CYRUN is affected by the PTYR too.
In the normal year, all variables are negatively correlated during
these two runoff-yield condition. This correlation may be biased
because the rainfall–runoff sample series is too short to be repre-
sentative. The CRR between the CYRUN and the CYRAIN in the poor
year is the smallest, but that of the CYRUN and the PYR is the lar-
gest. This shows that the CYRUN is mainly affected by the PYR. In
the Tanghe River Basin, rainfall in the poor year is generally small,
most of which is consumed by evaporation or retained in the aer-
ation zone and vegetation, thus the flood is difficult formed. More-
over, the flowing runoff in the poor year in the Tanghe River is the
baseflow, which is formed by the deep slowly flowing groundwa-
ter, and is replenished usually by the PYR and the PTYR.
The above results indicate that rainfall–runoff regression analy-
ses should be carried out for the different rainfall states. In the rich
year, the CYRUN depends on the CYRAIN and the PYR, while in the
poor year, the CYRUN depends on the CYRAIN, the PYR, and the
RPTY. Because of the potentially biased correlation, the regressions
between rainfall and runoff for the normal year are not discussed.
Thus, the rainfall–runoff MDRM from 1959 to 1979 for the
Zhongtangmei gauge can be written as:

Rich year : Rt ¼ 6:66 þ 0:0167Pt þ 0:0055Pt1
ð7Þ
Poor year : Rt ¼ 1:817 þ 0:067Pt þ 0:003Pt1
The rainfall–runoff MDRM from 1980 to 2013 for the Zhong-
tangmei gauge can be written as:

Rich year : Rt ¼ 16:164 þ 0:028Pt þ 0:0058Pt1 þ 0:0038Pt2
;
Poor year : Rt ¼ 1:969 þ 0:039Pt þ 0:0024Pt1 þ 0:002Pt2
ð8Þ
where Rt is the CYRUN, P t is the CYRAIN, Pt1 is the PYR, and P t-2 is
the PTYR.

3.4. Multivariate dynamic regression model construction analysis

In the regression model, R is the CRR. The larger value indicates

a better correlation between the independent and dependent vari-
ables in the regression model. The parameter P is the probability
that the correlation between the calculated and measured values
are coincident. If P < 0.05, the regression model passes the signifi-
cance test.

Fig. 4. Double cumulative curve of rainfall and runoff at the Zhongtangmei gauge
(1) For the RYCⅠ: The R value of 0.75 in the rich year means that
from 1959 to 2013.
the two independent variables P t and Pt - 1 in the regression
model can explain the dependent variables Rt with the bet-
ter linearly correlated. The P value is 0.045; so the regression
Table 1 model is significant. The R value obtained in the poor year is
Multivariate matrix of the CRR under the different runoff-yield conditions. 0.85. Similar to the rich year, it indicates the linear correla-
CYRUN of runoff-yield Rainfall CYRUN CYRAIN PYR PTYR tion exists these variables. The P value is 0.08 proves that
condition state the model can be used.
Ⅰ Rich 1.000 0.682 0.380 0.184 (2) For the RYCⅡ: The R value of the rich year is 0.69 shows the
Normal 1.000 0.094 0.239 0.028 linear regression relations in the variables P t , P t - 1 , P t - 2 and
Poor 1.000 0.363 0.613 0.451 Rt . The P value of 0.049 indicates that the model is reason-
Ⅱ Rich 1.000 0.614 0.457 0.127 able. The R value of 0.78 and P value of 0.40 in the poor year
Normal 1.000 0.133 0.167 0.105 imply the linear correlation of the variables of the regression
Poor 1.000 0.274 0.632 0.571
model, either.
4
J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al. Ain Shams Engineering Journal xxx (xxxx) xxx

3.5.2. Effect of the runoff yield condition on runoff

3.5. Effects of the rainfall and runoff yield conditions on runoff
3.5.1. Effect of rainfall on runoff
3.5.1.1. Effect of rainfall on runoff under RYCⅠ. Based on the assump-
tion that P 1 is the observed rainfall during the first period (1959–
1979) and R1 is the observed runoff under the RYCⅠ, and then
inserting P 2 of the second period (1980–2013) under the RYCⅡ into
0
Eq. (7), runoff under the runoff-yield condition Ⅰ(R1 ) can be calcu-
lated. Thus, the runoff change ratio caused by rainfall under the
RYCⅠ can be obtained as:
R01  R1
gP1 ¼  100%
R1
As shown in Table 2, compared with the observed runoff, the
annual runoff during the second period decreased by 9.94% in
the rich year, and also decreased by 19.66% in the poor year. So,
the rainfall change during the second period is responsible for
the reduced runoff observed at the Zhongtangmei gauge (weight:
15.97%).
3.5.1.2. Effect of the rainfall on runoff under RYCⅡ. Similarly, assum-
ing that P 1 during the first period is the observed rainfall and R2 is
the observed runoff during the second period, and inserting P1 into
0
Eq. (8), runoff under the RYCⅡ (R2 ) can be calculated. Thus, the run-
off change ratio of caused by rainfall under the RYCⅡ can be
obtained as:
R2  R02
gP2 ¼  100%
R02
As shown in Table 3, compared with the calculated runoff, the
annual observed runoff during the second period decreased by
3.69% on average in the rich year and by 5.76% in the poor year.
If the rainfall state changes, the runoff decreases by 8% under the
RYCⅡ.
3.5.2.1. Effect of the runoff yield condition on runoff during the first
period. Assuming that P1 is the observed rainfall and R1 is the
observed runoff during the first period from 1959 to 1979, and
0
inserting P1 into Eq. (8), runoff under the RYCⅡ ðR2 ) can be calcu-
lated. Thus, the runoff change ratio of caused by the runoff-yield
condition (Ⅰ or Ⅱ) can be written as:
R02  R1
gR1 ¼  100% ð11Þ
R1
As shown in Table 4, when the runoff-yield condition changes
from Ⅰ to Ⅱ during the first period, the annual observed runoff at
ð9Þ the Zhongtangmei gauge decreases by 39.74% in the rich year
and by 45.10% in the poor year. The weighted runoff reduction is
41.16%.
3.5.2.2. Effect of the runoff yield condition on runoff during the second
period. Assuming that P2 is the observed rainfall and R2 is the
observed runoff during the second period from 1980 to 2013 and
0
inserting P 2 into Eq. (7), runoff under the RYCⅠ (R1 ) can be calcu-
lated. Thus, the runoff change ratio caused by the change in the
runoff-yield condition from Ⅰ to Ⅱ can be written as:
R2  R01
gR2 ¼  100% ð12Þ
R01
As shown in Table 5, when the runoff-yield conditions change
from Ⅰ to Ⅱ during the second period, the annual observed runoff
at the Zhongtangmei gauge decreases by 35.57% in the rich year
and by 35.60% in the poor year. The weighted runoff reduction is
ð10Þ 35.58%.
Based on Table 2, if rainfall during the first period changes to
that during the second period under the RYCⅠ, runoff at the Zhong-
tangmei gauge will decrease by 15.97% on average. Based on
Table 5, if rainfall during the second period is maintained and
the runoff-yield condition changes from Ⅰ to Ⅱ, runoff at the Zhong-
tangmei gauge will decrease by 35.58%. This means that, compared

Table 2
Effect of rainfall on runoff under the RYCⅠ.
0
Rainfall state First period Second period R1 R2 Runoff change ratio (%)
Number of years Weight Number of years Weight
Rich 6 0.5 6 0.46 5.25 4.73 9.94
Poor 6 0.5 7 0.54 1.89 1.52 19.66
Weight 3.57 3.00 15.97

Table 3
Effect of rainfall on runoff under the RYCⅡ.

Rainfall state First period Second period R02 R2 Runoff change ratio (%)
Number of years Weight Number of years Weight
Rich 6 0.5 6 0.46 3.16 3.05 3.69
Poor 6 0.5 7 0.54 1.04 0.98 5.76
Weight 2.10 1.93 8.00

Table 4
Effect of the runoff-yield condition on runoff during the first period.

Rainfall state First period R02 R1 Runoff change ratio (%)

Number of years Weight
Rich 6 0.5 3.16 5.25 39.74
Poor 6 0.5 1.04 1.89 45.10
Weight 2.10 3.57 41.16

5
J. Zhang, H. Zhang, H. Xiao et al.
Table 5
Effect of the runoff-yield condition on runoff during the second period.
Rainfall state Second period
Number of years Weight
Rich 6 0.46
Poor 7 0.54
Weight
with rainfall during the first period and the RYCⅠ, rainfall during
the second period leads to the runoff reduction by 15.97% and
the RYCⅡ leads to the runoff reduction of 35.58%. Therefore, the
rainfall change contribution to runoff reduction is 15.97/(15.97 +
35.58)  100% = 30.98%, while the contribution of the runoff-
yield condition to the runoff reduction is 35.58/(15.97 + 35.58) 
100% = 69.02%.
4. Conclusions
In this study, the MDRM of rainfall and runoff is constructed,
which can be used to determine the effects of rainfall and runoff-
yield conditions on runoff, and further analyze the effects of differ-
ent rainfall states and the runoff-yield conditions on runoff. Thus,
the contributions of rainfall and runoff-yield changes to runoff
can be quantitatively obtained. Based on this study, it can be con-
cluded that (1) the rainfall changes lead to the runoff reduction by
15.79% under the RYCⅠ from 1959 to 1979, while it leads to the run-
off reduction of 8% under the RYCⅡ from 1980 to 2013; (2) With
the different states of rainfall from 1959 to 1979, the change in
the runoff-yield conditions leads to the runoff reduction of
41.16%. While with the different rainfall states from 1980 to
2013, it leads to the runoff reduction of 35.58%; (3) the different
rainfall and runoff-yield conditions have different effects on runoff,
but the main reason for the runoff reduction is the runoff-yield
condition changes, which accounted for 69.02%, while rainfall is
only 30.98%.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program
of China (Grant No. 2018YFC0406501), Program for Innovative
Talents (in Science and Technology) of the University of the Henan
Province (Grant No. 18HASTIT014), and Foundation for University
Youth Key Teachers of the Henan Province (Grant No.
2017GGJS006).
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Jinping Zhang is a professor in hydraulic engineering,
School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou
University, Zhengzhou, China. Born in 1979, she
received her PhD in hydrology and water Resources
from China Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-
power Research in 2007. She has long been engaged in
the research work of water resources planning and
management, regional water resources rational alloca-
tion and water cycle, regional agricultural soil and water
balance, etc. In total, she has published more than 50
academic papers, including more than 20 international
high-level papers.