Asia Pacific | July 2021

A new trajectory
for logistics real
estate in
Asia Pacific
What are the implications
for investors, developers
and occupiers?

Structural changes to asset allocations and operations

of logistics real estate and supply chain networks have
converged to accelerate logistics sector investment
and occupier demand. While activity levels have picked
up strongly in the last two years, the new trajectory of
logistics real estate is still in its early phase.
Key capital market themes include:

• Institutional investors have just begun their strategic

reallocation of their portfolios and need to increase
their exposure to logistics assets by 40-50% in the
near term

• Over the next 3-5 years, logistics and industrial

investment volumes to double to USD 50-60
billion, from the USD 25-30 billion in 2019-2020. To
expediently allocate capital into income producing
assets, more large and portfolio transactions are
expected

2 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

 • While yields have compressed, stiff
competition for assets, low cost of capital
and robust demand-supply dynamics will
support further yield compression, possibly
by a further 50-100 bps
• Due to the consistent increase in core and core
plus funds into the sector over recent years,
there is potential for more sale-and-leaseback
transactions

• Investment to pick up strongly in South

Korea, Australia and China, given availability
of new modern logistics stock, strong
inflow of funds focused on these countries
and resilient demand from increasing
e-commerce penetration rates

Every month, 3 million people will move to cities in Asia Pacific and 12 million people will join the middle class,
presenting significant growth potential for logistics real estate. The shift to ‘new economy’1 occupiers, increasing
adoption of technology and automations solutions and the rising importance of ESG and human-centric design
requirements all point to a new trajectory for the logistics sector. Ultimately, this new trajectory is supporting the
investment thesis for prime, modern logistics real estate.

1The ‘New Economy’ describes aspects or sectors of an economy that are producing or intensely using innovative or new technologies. This relatively new
concept applies particularly to industries where people depend more and more on computers, telecommunications and the Internet to produce, sell and
distribute goods and services (OECD)

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 3

Table of contents
01
Structural shifts in asset
allocations are driving fund flows
and investments
› Fund flows and investments grew strongly
in 2020 and the first half of 2021
› Larger deals and portfolio transactions
are accelerating
› South Korea, Australia and China
the key beneficiaries
› Doubling of investment volumes
to USD 50-60 billion in 2023
› Investing into core assets and sale-and-
leaseback deals
› Yield compression has been sharp
and more is expected
02
5 Operational changes in logistics 12
real estate underpinning rising
capital allocation
› Shift towards ‘New Economy’ occupiers
› Rapid adoption of technology
and automation
› A focus on ESG and human-centric design
considerations
03
The future of logistics operations 20
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01
Structural shifts in asset
allocations are driving
fund flows and
investments

Fund flows and Logistics funds raised in 2020 doubled and continued to accelerate further
in the first half of 2021 as institutional investors started to strategically
investments grew reallocate their portfolios to enhance diversification and resilience. During
strongly in 2020 and the pandemic in 2020, institutional investors grappled with economic
lockdowns, travel restrictions and mandatory work-from-home directives
the first half of 2021 that disrupted rents and occupancies of their retail, hotel and office assets.

Figure 1
Asia Pacific logistics
funds raised by vintage
Source: Preqin, JLL capital markets
research estimates

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 5

The increase in allocation to the sector has resulted in robust growth in investment volumes. In 2020, overall
commercial real estate transaction volumes were flat, but logistics and multifamily investments rose 25-30% year
on year.

Figure 2 100
-27%
Asia Pacific 90

transaction volumes 80

by sector 70

USD billion
60

2019 50
40 29% -38%
2020
30
20 -64%
26% -13%
10 67%
Source: JLL capital markets 17%
research estimates
0
Office Logistics Retail Residential Mixed-use Hotel Alternatives Healthcare

Larger deals and In the last four months, there has been a sharp increase in large portfolio
deals in the sector. In April 2021, ESR and GIC jointly acquired a USD 2.9
portfolio transactions billion Australian logistics and industrial portfolio. In the first quarter
are accelerating of 2021, LOGOS invested USD 1.3 billion in Moorebank Logistics Hub in
Sydney while Blackstone acquired a 22 million sq. ft. logistics platform in
India from Embassy and Warburg Pincus for an enterprise value of USD 700
million. In late 2020, Blackstone also invested USD 680 million in a 70%
stake in Guangzhou International Airport R&F Integrated Logistics Park.

Figure 3 8.0 16

Asia Pacific logistics 7.0 14

deals over USD 300 6.0 12
million
USD billion

5.0 10

AP Industrial volume 4.0 8

(>300 mn USD) 3.0 6
No. of deals over USD 300 mn
2.0 4
(RHS)
1.0 2

Source: RCA, JLL capital markets - 0

research estimates 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

6 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

The key beneficiaries
- South Korea,
Australia and China
Investment volumes are expected to pick up significantly in South
Korea, Australia and China. Since January 2020, logistics funds raised
for these countries have increased by 1-7 times, compared to the prior
five years. In contrast, logistics funds raised for Japan and India assets
have moderated.

Figure 4
Asia Pacific logistics
funds raised by
country focus

2015 - 2019
2020-2021

Source: Preqin, RCA

Doubling of Despite the strong growth in 2020, we expect volumes to accelerate further.
According to ANREV, Asia Pacific institutional investors currently have
investment volumes around 66% of their portfolios allocated to office and retail assets, and just
to USD 50-60 billion 16% and 6% allocated to logistics and residential assets respectively. This
is more skewed than investors in Europe and the US, where about 50% of
in 2023 portfolios are allocated to office and retail assets.
Ideally, portfolio managers would prefer (1) to increase exposure to a third
of their portfolios allocated to defensive sectors including logistics and
residential assets; (2) a third to growth and consumption oriented sectors
including hotels, retail and development and (3) maintain a third to office
assets where liquidity is more abundant, assets are more available for
investments and less operationally intensive.

Figure 5
Asset allocation in
commercial real
estate portfolios Retail
Office
Source: ANREV, JLL capital markets
research estimates Industrial/Logistics
Residential
Healthcare
Student Accommodation
Development
Other

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 7

 We estimate that Asia Pacific investors could seek to increase their exposure
to logistics assets to 20-23% from 16% currently. This allocation increase of
4%-7% implies an additional USD 200 billion investment into logistics assets
over the next few years, potentially USD 40-50 billion annually if executed
over 4-5 years. This could more than double the investment volumes in 2020

Investing into core More logistics funds with core and core-plus strategies were raised in the last
two years. These funds now make up 40-50% of total logistics funds, from
assets and sale-and- 20-30% five years ago.
leaseback deals As more institutional investors make logistics a core part of their portfolios,
they focus on high quality assets anchored by global or regional occupiers.
These tenants have strong credit quality and can commit to long leases.
Annual rent escalations are also frequently structured into their lease
agreements. These assets are increasingly available as more multinational
e-commerce operators and 3PLs demand more space.
Sale-and-leaseback transactions will likely rise as a result, as these assets
provide a ‘win-win’ solution for the corporate occupier that needs to
monetise the asset for operational needs while allowing the institutional
investor access to a steady rental income stream. Overall, sale-and-
leaseback transactions exceeded 10% of volumes in 1Q2021, from 7% in
2015-2020.

Figure 6
Proportion of core
and core plus funds
raised in Asia Pacific
logistics
Source: Preqin, RCA

8 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

Yield compression In the last four years, logistics yields have compressed by 60-220 bps in Asia
Pacific cities. In particular, Seoul and Sydney yields have compressed 120
has been sharp and bps over the last three years. While this decline was sharp, yields are still
more is expected expected to compress further by 50-100 bps on average due to:

1. Continued This is likely to put upward pressure on capital values. In the last three
quarters, logistics assets marketed by JLL have attracted strong bids, with
increase in asset the upper quartile bids reaching 5-9% above asking prices. In comparison,
allocation and funds retail assets attracted upper quartile bids reaching 0.5% above asking prices.

flow into the sector

Figure 7
Bid spreads (upper,
lower quartiles and
median) for assets
marketed by JLL
globally

Logistics
Living
Office
Retail
4Q20

2Q20
2Q20

3Q21

3Q20

3Q21
1Q20

4Q20
3Q20

4Q20

2Q20

Source: JLL Capital

1Q20

Markets Research
3Q21
1Q20

3Q20
1Q20
3Q20

3Q21
4Q20
2Q20

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 9

2. Still wide logistics Spreads are still wide and should narrow over time as rental growth
expectations over the next five years for office assets of 0-2% annually in
yield spread over 2021-2025 are no higher than for logistics given the current demand-supply
office assets dynamics in most Asia Pacific cities. Currently, logistics yields in Seoul,
Tokyo, Shanghai and Beijing range between 3.5%- 6.5% and still 90-180 bps
above office yields.

Figure 8
Logistics yield
spread over office
yields in 1Q2021

Logistics Yield
Spread

Source: JLL Capital Markets Research

Singapore

Beijing

Tokyo

Shanghai

Hong Kong

Paris

Seoul

Madrid

Frankfurt

Amsterdam

Sydney

London

San Francisco

Chicago

New York

Los Angeles
3. Attractive yield Wide spreads to costs of debt provide compelling cash on cash yields,
allowing funds and listed REITs to fund additional acquisitions easily. For
spread over cost of instance, in late 2020, Japan’s LaSalle Logiport REIT raised USD 456 million
debt for acquisition of four assets. In 1Q21, Mapletree Logistics Trust acquired five
assets in Korea for USD 250 million reflecting a 4.5% NOI yield, funded using
debt costing of 2.3%.

Figure 9
Cash on cash yield
JLL Capital Markets Research
Singapore

Osaka

Tokyo

Seoul

Hong Kong

Sydney

Melbourne

Shanghai

Beijing

10 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

4. Yield spread Asia Pacific logistics yields of 3.9%-6.7% are higher than yields of 3.35%-
4.5% in Europe and 3.8%-4.8% in the United States. Given the strong
globally tailwinds of growing urbanisation, consumption and e-commerce
adoption in Asia Pacific, global investors would find Asia logistics assets
compelling and provide the additional push to bring yields in Asia down
by 50-100 bps over the next few years.

Figure 10
Global prime logistics yields as at 1Q2021

Source: JLL

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 11

02
Operational changes
in logistics real estate
underpinning rising
capital allocation

Shift towards ‘New Economy’

occupiers
Occupier composition has shifted considerably in Asia in 2019 and 2020, up from 53% in the two years prior.
Pacific in recent years. Historically, the major logistics The ‘Logistics and Distribution’ segment in particular
and industrial occupiers across the region have been has grown at a rapid pace, and in the past two years
from the manufacturing, traditional retail trade, accounted for almost half of all take-up in the region3.
wholesale trade, and the transportation sectors. While With productivity across most major economies falling,
these groups remain active, there has been a clear shift the shift towards ‘new economy’ industries to help drive
towards occupiers engaged in the ‘new economy’2. economic growth and to boost productivity will only
The most visible sign of this is the greater level of further support e-commerce and 3PL sector expansion.
take-up and activity from e-commerce retailers (pure
play and omni-channel) and 3PL operators. Take up
of these operators are incorporated under ‘Logistics
and Distribution’ and ‘Retail Trade’ in Figure 11. These
two occupier groups now account for 59% of take up

2See footnote 4 in Executive Summary

3Excludes unidentified occupier categories; based on sample data collected by JLL

12 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

Figure 11
Lease take-up composition, APAC

Logistics & distribution Retail trade Source: JLL, May 2021

Note: Excludes unidentified
Manufacturing Professional & consulting services occupier categories; based on
sample data collected by JLL
Mining & construction Wholesale trade
Technology, media & communication Others

Relatively low e-commerce penetration rates across many countries in Asia Pacific provide scope for further
expansion. According to recent estimates, business to consumer (B2C) e-commerce revenue in Asia is expected to
rise by a CAGR of 8.2% between 2020 and 2025, from USD 1.44 trillion to an estimated USD 2.12 trillion4. Over this
period, the fashion segment is forecast to record fastest revenue growth, with a CAGR of 9.6%. This will be followed
by toys, hobby and DIY at 9.4%, and then food & personal care at an estimated 8.9% CAGR.

Figure 12
B2C e-commerce
revenue by segment in
Asia

Electronics & media

Fashion
Food & personal care
Furniture & appliances
Toys, hobby & DIY

Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook (e-commerce), November 2020

Note: The e-commerce market encompasses the sale of physical goods via a digital channel to a private end user (B2C). Incorporated in this definition are
purchases via desktop computer (including notebooks and laptops) as well as purchases via mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. The following
are not included in the e-commerce market: digitally distributed services, digital media downloads or streams, digitally distributed goods in B2B markets nor
digital purchase or resale of used, defective or repaired goods (e-commerce and C2C). All monetary figures refer to the annual gross revenue and do not factor
in shipping costs.

4Statista Digital Market Outlook (e-commerce), November 2020

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 13

 The global B2B
e-commerce market is
around five times the
size of the global B2C
e-commerce market

While the B2C e-commerce segment is often highlighted for its growth potential, the business to business (B2B)
segment is a much larger segment with strong growth prospects. According to the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD)5, the global B2B e-commerce market is around five times the size of the global
B2C e-commerce market, with Asia accounting for around 80 percent of the B2B e-commerce market.
B2B markets are inherently more complex, and as such, the B2B market has typically lagged the B2C market in
terms of venture capital funding, technology implementation and innovation. Nonetheless, the pace of innovation
in B2B markets has accelerated, with the COVID-19 pandemic, wider broadband access, and emerging 5G networks,
becoming key catalysts for innovation. This has resulted in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rising by a CAGR of
13.1% between 2013 and 2019.

Figure 13
B2B e-commerce
Gross Merchandise
Value (GMV)
Asia
RoW

Source: Statista analysis, 2019.

Note: 2019 is estimated

5https://unctad.org/news/global-e-commerce-jumps-267-trillion-covid-19-boosts-online-sales

14 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

More rapid adoption of technology and automation
Implementation of technologies that help companies improve efficiency, provide greater operational flexibility, and
increase the speed of supply chains has helped shape how modern, high specification logistics facilities are designed.
An example of a typical technology infrastructure ecosystem is shown below.

Advance Automation
surveillance and robotics
systems Automated mobile robots (AMRs)
Video monitoring Stationary robots
Remote gate entry/exit Storage and retrieval systems
Cyber security systems Collaborative robots (cobots)

Warehouse
management
systems Sustainability
Smart LED lighting
Real time inventory tracking
Rainwater collection
Control and order processing
Automated power controls
Preventive maintenance
Logistics technology
ecosystem
Vision technologies Full network
Intelligent cameras/sensors connectivity
Barcode scanners Core IT infrastructure
Vision guided robots WiFi connectivity
Cloud storage

Source: JLL

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 15

While an important consideration for many occupiers
and developers, adoption of advanced technologies
and automation solutions are not yet widespread.
Currently, only the larger occupiers with global
and regional networks have implemented these
technologies to any meaningful capacity. These groups
have the expertise, capacity, and capital to invest in
such technology. It also typically requires scale in
order for the capex to be cost-effective. For small to
How are technology and
automation costs accounted
for in rent?
16 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific
medium occupiers and developers, the benefits from
implementing technology and automation may not
cover the initial required capex, or the costs may take
too long to recoup.
Another key consideration is the capex model – who
pays for the technology infrastructure, the occupier or
the developer?
Some key points for consideration are:
If the landlord pays, the landlord
could (would usually) amortise the
capital cost through the lease rent
via a rent premium. In practice, there
are examples of a two-tiered rental
structure consisting of base building
rent plus a layer of amortised rent.
 Same as above. However, a key
consideration is, ‘does the additional
amortised rent get treated for the lease
How are technology and term only, or for the useful life of the
equipment, or in perpetuity?’ This is
automation costs accounted yet to be widely tested in the market.
for in value? An approach might be to use a higher
capitalisation rate against the rent
premium to reflect the uncertainty/risk
of future receipt.

If there is no amortised rental

component, the tenant may be willing
Do tenants pay more for to pay a higher overall rent due to
technology and automation? operational efficiencies, but this would
If so, what is the rental be difficult for market observers or
investors to quantify. Presumably
threshold? however, the landlord would want to
recoup capital via the rental premium.

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 17

 3PLs and fast moving consumer
Which occupiers tend to adopt goods companies because of the
more tech and automation competitive nature of their sectors,
solutions? and e-commerce groups who require
volume as margins are typically lower.

Nonetheless, with the rapid advancement of technology, and with costs continuing to fall, there is likely to be
greater adoption of technological and automation solutions across a broader group of occupiers. This may
particularly be the case for automation and robotics, where costs have fallen, and where this type of technology
arguably provides greater marginal value in terms of costs vs productivity. Automation and robotics also typically
require less space. This will support further growth in urban logistics where building footprints are smaller.

Figure 14
Average cost of an
industrial robot

Source: Ark Invest; ID 1120530,

Statista, 2020

Note: An Industrial robot is a programmable, mechanical device used in place of a person to perform
dangerous or repetitive tasks with a high degree of accuracy

18 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

A focus on ESG and
human-centric design
considerations
6Global Status Report, 2017
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG)
ESG criteria is becoming increasingly important for logistics real
estate, and the opportunity in promoting ESG principles across the
real estate sector is significant. According to the World Green Building
Council, building and construction is responsible for 39% of energy-
related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally6. Many occupiers,
developers and investors have recognised this and are moving
towards more sustainable and responsible real estate.
While financial outcomes will remain a top priority for most investors,
developers and occupiers, there are a number of push factors which
are driving greater investment into ESG initiatives. Such factors
include the emergence of sustainability benchmarks (e.g. Global
Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB)), the need to meet
regulatory requirements, and to ensure that corporate sustainability
values are upheld.
Human-centric Design
Human-centric design, which has the overarching objective to maximise
employee wellbeing, has often lagged the ESG agenda. Economics still
play a major role in decision making, and human-centric design often
doesn’t meet the financial return hurdles of developers and occupiers.
When analysing the total operating cost of a distribution centre, the
largest costs are typically 1) transportation costs, 2) labour costs, 3)
inventory carry costs, and 4) rent costs.
After transportation, which can account for up to 50% of costs, labour
costs are also a significant cost consideration, but it was not. However,
historically, labour costs did not heavily influence occupier decision
making. This was because the skill sets and labour were not difficult
to obtain. This has changed in recent years, and attracting and
retaining labour are very important across many markets in the region,
particularly in markets with an ageing population and a stagnating
labour pool. Central to this is improving the labour force’s working
environment.
A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 19
03
The future of logistics
operations

Future proofing through

sustainability
A critical driver in moving the sustainability agenda from
a marginal consideration to a pivotal one for developers
is the occupier push factor. In order to meet corporate
and social targets, an increasing number of occupiers
are demanding ESG features in the spaces they occupy.
From an investment perspective, sustainable
buildings are also inherently more defensive. And
while evidence of a green premium beyond nominal
levels is scarce, an increasing number of investors
are applying a brown discount on buildings that have
lower energy efficiency and lack notable ESG features.
Further to this is obsolescence. Market factors and
regulatory requirements will eventually make ESG
features standard across prime logistics real estate,
and retrofitting buildings is typically more costly than
developing new buildings on per sqm basis.

20 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

Finding the right mix of A by-product of increasing use of technology is higher
power requirements. This will increase not only due to
technology, productive automation, but also to accommodate growing demand
building footprint, and location for electric charging points for material handling
equipment, delivery vehicles and cars. Power will
Shifting occupier requirements, rapidly changing become a critical location consideration.
technology, and evolving supply chain networks will
remain key factors impacting building design over the Increasing supply chain agility
next three years. Key to building design is finding the
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the weak
right mix of technology across the most productive
points in global supply chain networks. While
building footprint. Automation and robotics can
globalisation of supply chains has enabled cost effective
have the most direct impact in terms of increasing
and efficient movement of goods around the world, the
throughput and higher volumes, and maximising
COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for more
productive capacity. E-commerce players typically
agility and flexibility across supply chains.
operate on low margins. Advancements in automation
and robotics that can further increase operational A consequence is the expansion of the supply chain
efficiencies will be increasingly adopted by a larger footprint. And this may accelerate as some occupiers
pool of occupiers. seek a different cost/resilience trade-off and look to
localise production and sourcing. Occupiers may also
Incorporating more automation and robotics solutions
seek to diversify their supply dependencies to improve
will result in buildings with smaller footprints as
resilience. The reorganisation of supply chains will
occupiers will be able to use the cubic capacity of
impact the occupiers’ overall footprint, location of their
their buildings more efficiently. This will lead to
facilities, and how buildings are designed.
increasing demand for taller buildings to permit
Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (ASRS).
ASRS technologies provide high density storage, and
can save up to 85% of occupied floor space.

A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific | 21

Incorporating a people-centric Adopting on-demand strategies
agenda There will be growing segment of the market which will
be facilities to be used ‘on-demand’. These facilities will
While technological solutions will be increasingly
provide occupiers with more flexibility to meet volatile
employed, people will remain critical to the operations
customer demand and provide a different model for
of occupiers in logistics real estate. There are two key
occupation than the standard lease commitment. This
aspects to this. The first is to ensure that operations are
also reflects the increasing need for flexibility across
located in close proximity to a large labour force with
global supply chain networks.
the right skill sets and knowledge to work alongside
technological solutions in buildings. Second but just as
crucial is to ensure the wellbeing of employees.
The logistics sector has typically lagged the office sector
when providing employees with attractive, productive,
comfortable and safe workplaces. However, with tight
labour markets and changing skill sets of warehouse
employees, the push towards human-centric design
in order to attract and retain employees will only
increase. Some key features that are increasingly
being incorporated into building design and amenities
include: high quality restaurants; retail and shopping
amenities; childcare centres, exercise amenities such as
gyms, walking/jogging paths, and even rock climbing
walls; and improved in-building connectivity (e.g.
multiple wireless access points).

22 | A new trajectory for logistics real estate in Asia Pacific

Research

Roddy Allan Regina Lim

Chief Research Officer, Head of Capital Markets Research,
Asia Pacific Asia Pacific
Roddy.Allan@ap.jll.com Regina.Lim@ap.jll.com

Peter Guevarra Sungmin Park

Director, Research, Director, Capital Markets Research,
Asia Pacific Asia Pacific
Peter.Guevarra@ap.jll.com Sungmin.Park@ap.jll.com

Advisory

Stuart Crow Tom Woolhouse

CEO Capital Markets, Head of Logistics & Industrial,
Asia Pacific Asia Pacific
Stuart.Crow@ap.jll.com Tom.Woolhouse@ap.jll.com

JLL office - Asia Pacific

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