Professional Documents
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Acta Astronautica
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/actaastro
a r t i c l e in f o abstract
Article history: Space debris is a topic of concern among many in the space community. Most forecasting
Received 12 October 2014 analyses look centuries into the future to attempt to predict how severe debris densities
Received in revised form and fluxes will become in orbit regimes of interest. Conversely, space operators currently
23 February 2015
do not treat space debris as a major mission hazard. This survey paper outlines the range
Accepted 27 March 2015
of cost and risk evaluations a space operator must consider when determining a debris-
Available online 4 April 2015
related response. Beyond the typical direct costs of performing an avoidance maneuver,
Keywords: the total cost including indirect costs, political costs and space environmental costs are
Space debris discussed. The weights on these costs can vary drastically across mission types and orbit
Debris mitigation
regimes flown. The operator response options during a mission are grouped into four
categories: no action, perform debris dodging, follow stricter mitigation, and employ ADR.
Current space operations are only considering the no action and debris dodging options,
but increasing debris risk will eventually force the stricter mitigation and ADR options.
Debris response equilibria where debris-related risks and costs settle on a steady-state
solution are hypothesized.
& 2015 IAA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction graveyard orbit for GEO. Active Debris Removal (ADR) has
also been suggested, and widely studied, as a possible
The presence and creation of debris due to human method for reducing debris density. However, ADR techni-
operations in orbit is an ongoing problem. It is recognized ques considered in the literature, such as robotic re-orbiting
that the continuation of current trends in launches and long [5–8], electrodynamic tethers [9,10], laser ablation [11–14],
orbital lifetimes of satellites will only increase the density of ion shepherd methods [15–18], tethered tugging of large LEO
debris in both Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and High Earth Orbit debris [7,19–24], harpoons or nets to capture debris [7,25,26],
(HEO) regimes, such as geosynchronous (GEO) [1–4]. This has and electrostatic tractors [27–30], are economically costly,
led to increased use of passivation techniques to avoid on- technically challenging to develop, and often overshadowed
orbit break-ups, improved spacecraft shielding against small by political hurdles [31,32]. More recently, Just-in-time Colli-
object impacts, and the mitigation guidelines of a 25-year sion Avoidance (JCA) concepts are discussed where the orbit
lifetime rule for LEO and sub- or super-synchronous of a large debris object is nudged with an intercept mission to
avoid collisions with operating assets or other debris objects
[33]. Such technology could be more cost effective than ADR,
☆
This paper was presented during the 65th IAC in Toronto.
but requires highly accurate debris tracking and leaves the
n
Corresponding author. debris in orbit.
E-mail addresses: hanspeter.schaub@colorado.edu (H. Schaub), There are many important research papers discussing
lee.jasper@colorado.edu (L.E.Z. Jasper),
the projected growth of space debris in the near Earth
paul.anderson@colorado.edu (P.V. Anderson),
dmcknight@integrity-apps.com (D.S. McKnight). environment, such as the often cited studies by Liou
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.03.028
0094-5765/& 2015 IAA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79 67
published in References [1] and [2]. Here, the LEO debris during a mission are classified under one of the following
population greater than 10 cm in size is modeled for the categories:
next 100–200 years, showing that even with an optimistic
50% mitigation compliance rate, the LEO debris population 1. Make no mission changes in response to space debris.
could double over 200 years. Reference [34] shows the 2. Respond to conjunction warnings by dodging close-
debris doubling over 100 years if no mitigation methods approach debris or using JCA.
are implemented. While such figures are alarming to space 3. Follow current or more stringent end-of-mission miti-
debris researchers and experts who understand that these gation guidelines.
results represent mean trends, the worst-case scenarios 4. Begin active debris removal or remediation in the orbit
regime of interest.
could be much more severe. Convincing the general public,
policy makers, and research funding agencies that action is
required now to control this debris hazard remains a Currently only elements of options 1 or 2 are employed
challenge. For example, operators today are able to fly in the operator community. Implementing shorter post-
satellites in their desired LEO or HEO orbits with only mission orbital lifetimes (element of option 3) can have a
minimal concern regarding space debris avoidance. When significant impact on the commercial viability of launch
asking unmanned satellite operators how often they need operation if it is not uniformly adopted. Elements of option
to make an additional maneuver to avoid debris, the 4 are discussed and researched, but economically viable
and proven solutions are at least a decade away from being
common answer is that this almost never happens. If
flight ready. The natural question arises: At what point is
there is a warning of a possible conjunction, the uncer-
the total space-debris-related cost large enough to warrant
tainty of the miss distance is often so large that the
options 3 or 4? This paper considers a high-level decision
warning is ignored, or the conjunction is accounted for
logic from an operator's point of view on how to respond
in regular orbit maintenance maneuvers, thus not expend-
to a space debris threat including not only direct mission-
ing additional fuel. Therefore, considering that space related financial considerations, but also indirect costs
debris strikes have had a minimal documented impact such as tracking or debris avoidance analysis, environ-
on current satellite operations, doubling or tripling debris- mental and political considerations. While earlier studies
related risk – especially 100–200 years in the future – is focus on the overall space debris growth, the impact to the
unlikely to convince policy makers or operators to demand individual space operator can vary by orders of magnitude
strong space debris mitigation and remediation policies depending on where the satellite is flown, the mission
over the next decade. There are significant on-going efforts duration, and the mission objectives (e.g., high-value
to better attribute many anomalies and failures of commercial communication satellite versus low-cost
unknown cause to their trigger.1 some of these anomalies CubeSat technology demonstration).
may have been caused by non-trackable debris, the true The paper outline is as follows. First, the present-day
current space debris threat has not yet been captured or status of the LEO and GEO debris environment is reviewed.
communicated. Next, the overall space debris costs and associated
Reference [35] discusses the need to consider near- response decision factors are discussed, illustrating how
term ADR (remediation) developments and stronger end- these can vary drastically across mission types. A mission
of-life disposal guidelines (mitigation). The complexity of scenario case study illustrates how different mission types
considering LEO space debris risks is shown by how the are impacted very differently by space debris, leading to
fragment sizes and orbit types impact the risk to the space the current range of operator responses to debris-related
operator. Vance proposes in Reference [36] an economic risk. This is important when trying to bridge the divide
metric by which competing debris removal methods are between space debris researchers and operators/policy
evaluated for the highly populated sun-synchronous orbit makers. A fundamental question is asking whether com-
regime. However, this orbit-specific analysis only consid- mon mitigation guidelines for all LEO operators make
ers cost due to the economic value of the satellite, and the sense. Another important aspect to consider is what
environmental cost if the satellite experiences a fragmen- happens if stronger mitigation or ADR measures are
tation collision. Risk costs of the de-orbit maneuver, costs implemented. In particular, would these ADR efforts con-
incurred by precision tracking of the debris to be removed, tinue indefinitely, or could the debris control methods
and political cost considerations are not included. stabilize to new operational equilibriums? Finally, the
Thus, this paper investigates a means to bridge the possible operator responses and costs to the debris threat
divide between space debris researchers that support are reviewed and discussed.
near-term action (begin ADR within a decade) to control
the space debris population, and most space operators that
2. Present day space debris congestion
are successfully operating satellites without demanding
stronger mitigation and remediation methods. In particu-
LEO is the most studied orbit regime for orbital debris –
lar, this study highlights the complex decision logic that
this is because it is the most densely populated regime (using
space operators face when considering the total space
spherical shell densities), as illustrated in Fig. 1, and many
debris-related cost. The available debris response options
commercial, government, and military satellites are in this
regime. GEO has the next largest spherical density, while
1
http://www.integrity-apps.com/events/scaf/. Oltrogge states that its volume density can be as critical as
68 H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79
are proactive, long-term responses that seek to avoid the rocket bodies has a significant impact on their
possible creation of future debris including: (3) a following competitiveness.
of stricter mitigation guidelines, and (4) using ADR to Debris tracking: This is mostly covered by the US Air Force,
reduce the long-term debris in an orbit regime of interest. but other countries are starting to develop their
The multitude of debris-related costs a space operator own space situational awareness programs [53].
must consider are discussed in detail throughout the Debris analysis: Considers the labor time and costs of
remainder of this Section. Interestingly, the answers to analyzing possible debris threats.
the questions in Fig. 4 can vary strongly from one operator Risk of de-orbit: Considers the risk of debris causing
to another as illustrated in Table 1. The table columns damage on Earth. This is negligible for small
indicate the following considerations: satellites, strong for LEO satellites, and has no
weight on GEO satellites.
Thrusting: Considers the cost of having to implement Reputation Loss: Considers the political and professional
thrusting. This would have a strong weight on impact if the operator's satellite causes damage
small satellites that typically don't have thrust- to another satellite.
ing, or very little fuel. On most other bodies this Space environment: Considers the risk either operating in
weight is low as these satellites already have a high-density debris environment, or the risk to
thrusting capabilities. De-orbiting rocket bodies other operators if the operator's satellite causes a
after they deliver their payload would require a large debris field.
lot of fuel, thus the strong weight.
Downtime: Considers the impact if mission operations Currently the practice is to either not consider space
have to be suspended to address debris issues. debris, or account for possible conjunction events in their
This has a strong weight for commercial or regular orbit correction maneuver planning, as illustrated in
military satellites. Fig. 5. Prior to the Iridium/Cosmos collision in 2009, the
Insurance: Space insurance costs are heavily weighted response was mostly to do nothing. Even now, the spacecraft
towards commercial GEO satellites. Small satel- operators and insurance industry do not appear overly
lite operators don't often purchase insurance. concerned with addressing space debris. Malfunctions
While the US government satellites don't typi- known to be related to debris are currently still rare [54].
cally carry insurance, some other countries' gov- In contrast, space debris research is strongly arguing for
ernments do purchase satellite insurance. increased space debris mitigation or remediation. Operators
Mitigation: Considers the costs to implement current of low-risk assets with short mission lifetimes are less
mitigation guidelines. This is a large challenge concerned with debris and therefore typically choose the
for CubeSats and small satellites, and limits them no action response. As total debris hazard related risk
often to lower altitudes. For commercial launch increases, it is necessary to maneuver through the debris
providers, the cost of de-orbiting their spent field, or increase the spacecraft shielding, increasing all
related costs and risks. These approaches are reactive since
operators are only responding to the current debris environ-
ment. As the debris-related risks rise to a critical level, likely
driven by major catastrophic events such as collisions, the
total costs will justify pursing stricter mitigation than the
current IADC standards. If the environment becomes sig-
nificantly more hostile to space operators, ADR may be
required, thereby increasing the costs to remediate the
debris environment considerably. These latter two
approaches actively attempt to alter the environment, pro-
viding a proactive approach to risk reduction.
Fig. 2. Illustration of the LEO debris hazard [34] and regions of high Current technology status makes mitigation costly and
economic interest. remediation all but unaffordable – this leads to a strong
03/ 19 10
vents [50 km]
m]
03/ 18 8
ear
h/Year
03/ 17 6
Month/
-Miss Eve
Mon
03/ 16 4
Near-M
03/ 15 2
Nea
03/ 14 0
0 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0
Long
ngitude [de
deg]
Fig. 3. Forecasted longitude-dependent debris congestion in GEO regime.
70 H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79
Fig. 4. Illustration of the cost considerations leading to a space debris response decision.
Table 1
Representative weighting for various debris hazard impacts on mission types using the coloring. – strong, – medium, – low and – no
weight
Short-Term (Reactive) Long-Term (Proactive) time. Seeking ADR technologies that have a broader
impact will facilitate their development, and spread out
Pre-2009
the costs over a range of mission operations such as orbital
Level of Perceived Total COST
Today?
servicing, or autonomous refueling. The current space
debris mitigation requirements are a step in the right
direction, but do they go far enough? Instead of worrying
about active removal, or increased costs of tracking an
ever-growing debris population, what are the costs asso-
ciated with requiring a greatly reduced post-mission
satellite disposal time (e.g., proposing a 10-year reentry
rule for certain LEO satellites, instead of the current
No Action
Debris Stricter
Enact ADR general 25-year standard)?
Dodging Mitigation
reducing science return and revenue. The satellite down- failure would occur.4 The insurance costs illustrate how the
time can be a stronger cost to commercial operators than the space debris costs are driven by outlier event.
fuel usage. For smaller science satellites that only have a
small amount of fuel aboard, it can be more costly to 3.3. Indirect costs
consume fuel, resulting in significantly shorter mission life-
time as illustrated in Table 1. An indirect cost is one that occurs due to generally having
Orbital debris has built up over the years because it is debris in orbit, but is not unique to the particular mission.
less costly to abandon the spacecraft than choosing “miti- Examples include the cost of tracking debris, or staffing for
gation” or post mission disposals. It is directly expensive to debris-related analysis. Unfortunately, the natural progress
operators and launchers to perform mitigation operations. towards creating more orbital debris distributes indirect costs
Even for government payloads, contracts are often to all entities that utilize satellites. Perhaps one of the largest
awarded based upon lowest price, thus it is more compe- costs, that has yet to be well understood, is the cost to the US
titive to not have mitigation costs. In a study by Adilov Air Force (USAF). While the USAF tracks all visible objects in
et al. [55] they demonstrate that choosing to create debris orbit for its own Space Situational Awareness (SSA) defense
leads to less overall direct cost to operators, and higher reasons, the creation of debris further stresses this organiza-
profits. They further point out that, for commercial appli- tion. This affects operators because the USAF freely provides
cations, it is more competitive to have more operational tracking, conjunction, and some Collision Avoidance (COLA)
assets than necessary. This means that it is, again, more analysis for most satellite operators today [59]. With the
profitable to create debris. If an asset is lost, it will be Iridium–Cosmos collision, the collaboration between the USAF
replaced adding further mass and objects in orbit, increas- and operators around the world has increased. Still, the USAF
ing debris growth. While this description is based upon a is not obligated to provide information to operators and these
simple economic model, this is supported by actual prac- indirect costs get distributed to US citizens. The community is
tices of companies that have reduced mitigation practices currently dependent upon US government cooperation.
due to their expense [56]. Implementation of more precise and smaller debris tracking
Spacecraft insurance is another direct cost to be con- is a costly undertaking. Several nations are investigating
sidered. First-party policies insure against the failure of the improving their own space situational awareness capabilities
asset, while third-party policies covers satellite owners for [53]. The US government accountability office May 2011
suits that may be filed by third parties in the event that report [60] outlines the significant fiscal and managerial
their satellite hits another satellite and damages that other challenges of expanding the SSA capabilities. Space debris
satellite.3 While many of the smaller satellite operators growth is mentioned as one of the drivers for needing
don't carry insurance, the larger commercial, and some improved SSA. The US SSA-related investments over 2006–
non-US government satellites, do carry first party insur- 2015 sum up to about 5.3 billion US dollars. This does not
ance with a world wide combined insurance premium cost include the costs of operating the existing SSA programs and
of about $800 million per year. Third-party insurance is facilities. However, factoring out the specific debris-related
still rarer, only larger commercial satellites in LEO and GEO cost components is very challenging as many of these SSA
carry it, with the world-wide insurance premiums sum- systems have non-debris-related functions as well.
ming to about $20 million per year (see footnote 1). The analysis of a conjunction, often automated, and
However, though space debris rarely factors into the current maneuver planning can be considered indirect costs to the
insurance cost premiums, insurance companies are beginning mission operator [61]. Conversations with DigitalGlobe
to consider debris [38,57]. The worst LEO debris-related mis- indicate that the cost of monitoring JSpOC warnings,
sion risk is about 0.8% [38], while the total on-orbit failure risk analyzing them, and occasionally planning COLA maneu-
is about 1.5%. Rocket bodies, after having delivered their pay- vers (less than 10 per year), is about 15% of the cost of one
load to orbit, may still be covered by third party insurance for full time engineer. The creation of the automated analysis
30 days to one year. Thus, rocket body operators debris cost system costs more, but it was a one-time cost for the
concerns don't end with the mission termination. For third- company. Further, COLA maneuvers do not reduce lifetime
party spacecraft insurance the premium would be lower if of the spacecraft at this point because they can be built
there is a way to avoid a collision as the insurance risk is into the normal station keeping maneuvers. Assuming
dominated by collision concerns. With first-party insurance the DigitalGlobe is similar to many other LEO operators, it is
concerns are dominated by mechanical breakdown issues with a tangible, but minimal, indirect cost to operate in the
the satellite itself, rather than with debris-related collisions. The current debris environment. This is the major reason why
incremental risk is small enough to be ignored for now (see there are strongly conflicting responses to the current
footnote 1). However, this could rapidly change if there is a debris environment between operators (little to no
catastrophic collision of a large, insured satellite. Thierry Colliot response) and the space debris research community.
is quoted as saying “You can potentially lose the premium of a
whole year in one single event” [58]. With the increased
3.4. Political costs
liability of the launch vehicles, satellite insurance rates have
been dropping, leaving very thin margins and higher risk if a
There are five United Nations treaties on outer space.
For example, the 1972 Liability Convention5 specifies that
3 4
Information obtained in conversation with Chris Kunstadter. http://tinyurl.com/pmr53n9.
72 H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79
another large debris field generating high altitude ASAT 35 collisions in the next 100 years. Increased mitigation
were performed today, the political fallout and costs to adherence will significantly lower this, to about half as
operators would be higher than with these tests. A high many collisions ( 15).
altitude ASAT test by any country could be both a political It can be argued that these studies are not really
“black eye” and impede further collaborations between the representative because they are mean values. Outlier condi-
country performing the test and the rest of the space- tions, such as the Iridium–Cosmos collision, will drive the
faring community. debris population, not the mean [63]. For example, if there
Looking at the Iridium–Cosmos collision in 2009, there were two collisions back-to-back, this will cause many more
were no legal repercussions for the Russians or Iridium challenges versus if there is only one collision within 15
space operators, although Iridium lost a functioning space- years. Mean growth studies are not a good illustration of how
craft. At the time of the collision, the two bodies were not good, or bad, the space debris environment will be.
expected to collide.13 In fact, they were not even among With the recent Chinese ASAT test and Iridium–Cosmos
the most likely space objects to collide that day. Iridium collision, the number of new objects created was equiva-
ended up maneuvering into the Cosmos' flight path, and lent to about 16 years of launches [35]. It can be said that
this collision has helped increase the communication years of successful mitigation can be negated by one
between the US Air Force and satellite operators. Possible collision [59]. In this way, collisions, and the associated
conjunctions events are slightly more transparent, and increase in space debris density in the associated orbit
planned maneuvers can be verified a priori to avoid a regime, can be considered a enhancer/multiplier for all
resulting conjunction event. This satellite-to-satellite colli- previous costs. This is also the case for indirect and
sion naturally resulted in direct costs to Iridium, but also political costs which are enhanced by the space environ-
indirect costs to users of space, specifically the USAF. Many ment weight factor.
operational lessons have been learned since the Iridium– DigitalGlobe created an automated conjunction analy-
Cosmos collision. Today's political costs, if an operator sis tool (at cost to the company) that analyzes the JSpOC
were to maneuver into the path of another object, are conjunction reports. This tool was created only after the
expected to be higher because of the improved tracking Iridium–Cosmos collision, emphasizing that collisions
data being provided, and the increased awareness of space increase infrastructure costs. If there are enough conjunc-
debris hazards. tion events per day, a dedicated analysis team may be
Next, consider the multi-ton spacecraft Envisat which is required, increasing costs to operators further. Further,
no longer operational, but remains near the popular A- more collisions will eventually cause insurance rates to
train obit. As discussed earlier, this sun-synchronous orbit increase on satellites. The SwissRe report already indicates
region has the highest risk of colliding with other debris, that the rates for GEO satellites are being reconsidered to
and is in a heavily populated zone of expensive, commer- account for growing space debris [38].
cial satellites. The loss of the ESA Envisat satellite in April If a collision were to occur in heavily populated orbital
2012 has prompted many in the European Union to regimes, such as the sun-synchronous orbits or GEO, this
consider ways to actively remove this object from orbit would have even greater effect. A collision in GEO will
due to its large size and high orbit.14,15 With ESA attempt- distribute debris throughout the entire belt within a day
ing to follow international guidelines and publicity of this [72]. As illustrated in Fig. 3, the GEO gravity wells will
event in space debris circles, there appears to be a genuine causes some of this debris to be focused on these regions,
effort to consider ways to remove this object from orbit increasing the local-longitude conjunction likelihood even
[26,68–70]. Besides considering the technical challenges of further. A collision in the commercially popular sun-
moving Envisat, the political costs would be considerable if synchronous orbits could result in costly direct costs to
Envisat were to collide with another operating satellite, locally operating satellites, and make future operation in
and cause a massive debris field in the highly commercial such sun-synchronous orbits more challenging. Both of
sun-synchronous orbit regime. This appears to be one of these narrow orbit regimes are special in that the opera-
few current debris concerns where a potential political tors are flying there to take advantage of particularly
black eye is causing some ADR research in Europe. In the favorable orbital physics. These mission types are not
end, even these political costs are not high enough to possible by simply moving the GEO satellite to a lower
currently warrant funding an Envisat ADR mission, but the orbit, or changing the plane of the sun-synchronous
pressure is mounting. spacecraft.
Both ESA and NASA have looked into the predicted This paper considers two reactive and two proactive
mean number of collisions expected, in LEO, over the next operator or policy maker responses to the threat of space
hundred or two hundred years [1,71]. Without changes to debris. The reactive options are to ignore space debris, or
current-day practices, it is expected that there will be over to track debris and perform collision avoidance maneuvers
if required. The two primary long-term, proactive avenues
13
http://celestrak.com/events/collision.asp
are to improve the debris environment either through
14
http://tinyurl.com/6tja2t7 stronger mitigation efforts or commencement of active
15
http://tinyurl.com/kq96x5x debris removal (ADR) missions.
74 H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79
4.1. No action related to space debris threat operator may choose to perform a burn despite large
conjunction uncertainty.
Many LEO satellite operators do not respond to debris Weaving and dodging about the medium- and large-
hazards because (a) their spacecraft does not have any sized debris is currently an affordable option for the space
maneuvering capability, or (b) they do not consider the operators because the various indirect costs, such as
conjunction information reliable enough to justify the cost of tracking and cataloging the debris, is not currently charged
an avoidance maneuver. Inherent in the later consideration is to the space operators. However, if this should change in
the impact of spacecraft shielding. This provides some level of the future, and operators would have to pay for good
security to the operator that the satellite could withstand tracking data (pushing infrastructure costs onto opera-
impingements with very small debris. tors), the cost balance would shift in favor of proactive
The no action option is certainly the most economical debris responses.
response during a mission, but also the one with a high A recent development is the concept of Just-in-time
risk. There is a growing population of small- and nano- Collision Avoidance (JCA) technologies [33]. Here short-
satellite missions that have no propulsion capability. These notice (within days or hours) intercept methods allow a
missions are often high-risk technically and designed for a large debris object to be nudged, thus avoid hitting
short mission duration. When considering all the risks that another large debris object, or an operating satellite. While
might terminate their operation, the probability of being this method can be cost-effective in avoiding an immedi-
hit by debris is not a driving consideration. ate large-on-large fragmentation event, this method only
Some satellites with maneuvering capabilities still moves the debris, and does not remove it from orbit and
choose not to respond to debris conjunction threats and future conjunction events. However, it could provide
rely on shielding to handle the small debris. Regarding critical near-term large debris protection to a space opera-
large debris threats, operators might arrive at this no- tor willing to fund such an action.
action response because they don't have access to con-
junction data, feel the uncertainty of the conduction 4.3. Stronger mitigation implementation and/or practices
prediction is so large (often 10's of km or more) that they
cannot justify the cost of an avoidance maneuver, or they Mitigation is the process of reducing the likelihood that
choose to avoid additional maneuvers to retain fuel for a specific object will cause more debris. Unlike the earlier
other mission objectives and simply accept the higher two actions, it is not a response to an immediate debris
mission risk. As illustrated in Fig. 5, prior to the Iridium– threat. The first, and most widely used, mitigation practice
Cosmos collision this “no-response” decision was the most involves passivation where rocket bodies and satellites
common response. that have reached end-of-life dump fuel, short out bat-
teries, and effectively reduce the amount of on-board
stored energy (they should also have captive mechanism
4.2. Dodging space debris features). Prior to the ASAT tests and the Iridium–Cosmos
collision, it was post-mission explosions due to stored
The “debris dodging” response considers moving an energy that caused the most debris growth. Passivization
operating spacecraft to avoid another space object, or minimizes potential break-ups in orbit. Most space agen-
changing the flight path of debris to avoid a collision. cies have their own passivation guidelines, and their
Since the Iridium–Cosmos collision many operators' common implementation has greatly helped reduce the
response to debris threats have evolved. The medium- small debris growth.
and large-debris conjunction assessments are more reli- The second mitigation practice, that is generally not as
able and transparent, and the 2009 event raised the widely followed, is to implement post mission disposal.
awareness of debris collision risk. Thus, since 2009, an The most widely referenced general mitigation guidelines
increased number of operators is choosing to make orbit are the United Nation's (UN) IADC and Committee on the
corrections to effectively weave through space debris field. Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) Mitigation Guide-
Conversations with LEO and GEO space operators showed lines. The well known LEO 25 year deorbit and GEO
that these corrections are commonly integrated into the 235 km reorbit come from these guidelines. These guide-
regular orbit maintenance maneuvers. Thus, typically no lines are good step in the right direction because they
additional fuel is expelled, but the direction of the burn is focus on limiting the generation of future debris. However
slightly adjusted. However, note that these maneuvers are the guidelines, again, can be challenging to enforce. Some
only possible with respect to tracked debris (10 cm and countries, such as France and Belgium, have legislation
larger). About 98% of LEO debris falls into the LNT category, making the guidelines binding for their space operators.
and thus cannot be dodged. While this dodging strategy For most countries the COPUOS guidelines are not binding
only avoids about 2% of LEO debris, it does help avoid the and have a recommendatory value.
large-on-large collisions that are a major source of the As discussed previously, it is currently more cost-
small LNT debris. effective in the short-term for companies to create debris
Dedicated collision avoidance maneuvers will use up – i.e. not clean up their end of life satellites. Therefore,
some of the mission fuel reserves, and are currently very with the increasing commercial activities in orbit (both
rare. The conjunction uncertainty would need to be rather LEO and GEO), there is little short-term fiscal incentive to
low for such a decision. Or, if the mission is of high value push for better mitigation practices. This enforces the
(commercial satellite, costly science satellite, etc.) the concept of a global means for enacting and enforcing the
H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79 75
for all orbit regimes. For example, GEO and LEO already
16
have different guidelines. As illustrated in Fig. 2, the LEO
debris distribution is focused in a finite set of orbit 12
regimes. It is conceivable that refined mitigation guide- 8
lines are developed for particular LEO regions.
4
Jakhu suggests that the only way for these mitigation
methods to be effective is to have binding international 0
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space-faring nations [59]. This would require international Year
cooperation across many interests and domestic policy to
be made that could be unpopular within the space com-
munity, due to increased regulations. Laws such as The
French Space Operations Act from 2008, while well mean- Compliant
China
133 (50.4%)
ing, could remove competitiveness for French commercial 34
8 IntelSat
entities, since the rest of the world is not restricted by
15 Japan
similar laws. The challenge is that, economically, institut-
52 Russia
ing mitigation regulations appears to be an “all or nothing”
18 USA
effort where the only way for any company to interna-
tionally be competitive is for all nations to have similar Other
6
regulations.
Current mitigation guidelines have been shown to not 5
4
5
be enough to reduce debris growth in LEO [34] and there is 4 9
debate about whether the GEO rules are a reasonable 9
solution [73]. Further, adherence to the 25 year rule for
22
LEO is weak [74]. Only 15% of the high debris criticality 33
index spacecraft (often in high sun-synchronous orbits) IADC 33 61 Abandoned
are being maneuvered to have a decay time less than 25 Noncompliant 53 (20.1%)
78 (29.5%)
years. In GEO, operators are much better at self-regulating
and appear to be improving with their efforts to comply Fig. 7. Compliance to IADC guidelines for post-mission disposal of GEO
with post-mission IADC disposal guidelines. It should be satellites [47]. (a) Annual GEO disposal guideline compliance since intro-
duced. (b) Compliance to GEO disposal guidelines by entity for 1997–2013.
noted that the fuel cost to reorbit the end-of-life GEO
satellite is only about 11 m/s, much less than the 100's of
m/s required to deorbit LEO satellites. This could explain contributing 62% of the abandoned GEO satellites over this
the higher compliance rate at GEO. Using re-orbit statistics time period has been negligible. This illustrates that for the
compiled from ESA's annual Classification of Geosynchro- near-term it is cheaper to generate debris, than try to
nous Objects reports [47], Fig. 7 illustrates compliance to follow debris mitigation guidelines.
the IADC re-orbit guidelines since they were introduced to The natural question arises, how can LEO operators be
the international GEO operator community in 1997 [75]. encouraged to act more like GEO operators? Debris miti-
Fig. 7(a) shows the number of GEO satellites annually that gation is a key element to an economically sustainable
(1) reached the end of their operational lifespans, (2) space debris environment. The high GEO operators' com-
attempted re-orbit to an IADC-compliant disposal orbit, pliance rate is facilitated through:
and (3) successfully achieved the minimum periapsis
altitude increase stipulated in the IADC guidelines. The 1. Awareness of the debris-related mission risk: The low risk
margin between the number of assets that reached end-of- tolerance of GEO operators, as shown by the lion's
life and those that re-orbited into an IADC-compliant share of the space insurance being at GEO, and the
disposal orbit has decreased since 1997, indicative of a narrow operating regime about GEO make the opera-
growing international desire to preserve the long-term tors sensitive to space debris issues.
utilization of the GEO ring. Fig. 7(b) provides a breakdown 2. Availability of low-cost debris mitigation solution: It only
of the compliance data in Fig. 7(a): during 1997–2013, requires about 11 m/s of Δv to boost a satellite to a
approximately 50% of GEO satellites that reached end-of- super-synchrounous disposal orbit.
life were repositioned into IADC-compliant disposal orbits 3. Avoidance of the myriad of legal concerns about caus-
before deactivation, and 30% attempted post-mission dis- ing extremely rare terrestrial damage, as the satellites
posal, but were unsuccessful in achieving the IADC's do not re-enter the Earth's atmosphere.
minimum periapsis altitude increase. Interestingly, 53
GEO satellites were abandoned without any re-orbit
attempt during this time frame, the largest contributor In contrasts, many LEO missions are lower-budget and
being Russia (33 abandoned). The political costs to Russia more risk tolerant. Even for insured commercial satellites,
76 H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79
the operators engage in “debris dodging” to avoid track- large numbers of debris is daunting. A key driver in ADR
able LEO debris, often not realizing they are avoiding only technology developments is the economic viability. Other-
3% of the potentially lethal LEO debris population, and thus wise, it can cost more to remove an object from orbit than
have about the same chance of their mission pre-maturely it originally cost to put it into orbit. The economic hurdles
terminating due to a collision with a LNT object. to developing ADR solutions are considerable. However,
The fuel efforts required to deorbit are significantly the system costs can be reduced by considering that many
larger, around 100's of m/s for a sun-synchronous space- ADR-related technologies have a broader use. For example,
craft. Low-cost solutions to deorbit end-of-life satellites is the autonomous rendezvous and docking GNC sensor
critical. However, such technologies, such as drag or tether systems required to approach passive space debris, the
devices, will result in a passive re-entry. This raises touchless actuation systems, the robotic grapplers, are also
concerns with about causing terrestrial damage. A LEO being developed for autonomous orbital servicing, asteroid
operator may chose to simply abandon a satellite in orbit, capture systems, resupply missions, and space asset har-
rather than doing an active deorbit and assume the legal vesting systems. By highlighting the broad use of to-be-
risks. Thus, to encourage LEO operators to comply better developed ADR technologies, it is feasible to developed the
with debris mitigation guidelines, it is key to continue to required technological readiness level without investing
educate them on the true current and future debris risk, large funds into a singular ADR concept.
while providing access to low-cost and low-liability deor- It will likely be challenging for a single country to have
biting solutions. space debris researchers convince their policy makers and/
Another important question is whether more aggres- or population that the expense of an ADR system is
sive rules should be applied for particular orbit regimes worthwhile. However, it could be argued that ADR system
(much shorter than 25 years after end of life – LEO, development will provide vital new technologies with
reboosting of objects significantly beyond 235 km – broad mission applications for that country or industry.
GEO). At the 6th European Conference on Space Debris in This would make them a leader and key resource within
Darmstadt, Germany, McKnight voiced the idea of using the space-faring community.
shorter post-mission disposal times such as 10–15 years. One potential concept for funding of an ADR system
These measures might stabilize the debris population (internationally or regionally) is to tax all operators that
without needing ADR. Such stronger mitigation guidelines generate debris. Thus, there would be a tax associated with
would increase the mission costs of most space operators, launching and the debris generation potential of the
thus common enforcement would be critical. While there mission [62]. This would make the responsible parties
has been progress on improving mitigation, the slow pace for debris creation pay for the clean-up of space, but again,
of acceptance, especially in the countries that are the this cost structure will hurt competition without universal
largest contributors to debris, makes it appear that the adoption.
political and economic costs are (perceived as) currently A particular challenge with raising funds to implement
more than the cost of increasing debris. space debris mitigation and remediation is that they do
not return positive feedback [35]. This is because if
4.4. Remediation mitigation and remediation measures work, there will be
no major collisions. It is only the negative results, a
If operators and policy makers cannot be convinced collision, that are overly obvious. This makes costs asso-
that mitigation regulations should be adopted, remedia- ciated with prevention less tangible. However, besides the
tion appears to be the only other option for reducing well-known Iridium–Cosmos collision, there have been
growth to stabilize the debris density. While the ideal other cases where space debris has disabled a satellite,
scenario will have nations participating in mitigation AND such as with Cerise [54]. Tracking such debris-related
remediation, remediation is attractive because it can have failures is critical to convincing policy makers that the
very significant affects for small numbers of objects debris models and forecasts are true. However, it is very
removed from orbit. Further, remediation can be per- challenging to determine if a satellite failed due to a
formed readily unilaterally if satellite operators are mov- collision with a small debris object. Satellites fail for many
ing their own debris. This is good because a single country, reasons, including space weather, mechanical failures,
or small group of organizations, can directly improve the software glitches, etc. Recent satellite failure workshops
entire orbital environment and not necessarily need a are trying to share the histories of satellite failures to gain
world-wide policy effort. the data to track the exact causes.
The problem with unilateral implementation is that the But, as the perceived risk due to debris increases, direct
direct expense of these systems to the organizations costs to operators will increase because active responses
involved will be large. Even more troubling is that some will be chosen, and the indirect costs to all organizations
ADR concepts could be considered a space weapon. There- will also increase due to the associated space situational
fore, if a country like the US or Russia were to build an ADR awareness demands. Fig. 8 demonstrates this trend, and
system, there would be major concern about the use of considers three scenarios. When it becomes necessary to
this system. The creation of any ADR system would enact “stricter mitigation”, due to higher risk levels and/or
preferably be a public endeavor accepted by the interna- government requirements, this will create a ‘level-set’ of
tional community [62]. cost to operators that will be difficult to reduce. This is
Because there are 100,000's of centimeter or larger because the costs for mitigation will likely be needed for
sized debris objects in LEO, the economic costs to deorbit all future operations to stabilize the debris population. If
H. Schaub et al. / Acta Astronautica 113 (2015) 66–79 77
Short-Term (Reactive) Long-Term (Proactive) regimes debris hazard risk to a much higher value. Again,
early development of ADR technologies is needed to be
able to respond to such outlier events.
Late ADR
Implementation
Potential
'equilibrium' of 5. Conclusions
Direct COST
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