SRI LANKA EQUITY | BANKS

EARNINGS UPDATE | 03 MARCH 2020

Hatton National [HNB]: BUY [+34%] Kavinda Perera

kavinda@asiasecurities.lk
+94 11 772 2044
Asset quality improves; bottom line set to grow
We maintain our BUY rating and TP for HNB at LKR 165.00/ share (+27.2% Key statistics Voting | Non-voting
upside; +33.7% TSR) and HNBNV at LKR 130.00/share (+28.4% upside; BBG ticker HNB SL | HNBNV SL
+36.8% TSR). HNB’s NPL stock dropped 31.2% QoQ, with a major part CSE ticker HNB.N0000 | HNB.X0000
coming from releasing a sizeable single exposure into performing category. GICS subsector Diversified Banks
While impairments remained higher in 4Q CY20, we see this tapering down
Price at 02 Mar 21 (LKR) 129.75 | 101.25
in CY21E, given relatively better economic activity. Approx. 15.0% of the
155.75/89.69 |
book is currently in moratoriums, and we believe that the impairment 52 week Hi/Lo (LKR)
126.50/74.70
provisioning is adequate in the current context. We further expect loan Market cap (LKR mn) 65,242
growth and NIMs to improve in CY21E, supporting bottom line growth and Market cap (USD mn) 343
ROE. We believe that HNB’s strong capitalisation, lower NPL profile and No. of shares (mn) 421 | 105
mid-term growth potential is discounted by short-term headwinds.
ADT (LKR mn) - 3M 98.0 | 56.3
ADT (USD k) - 3M 515.9 | 296.3
Topline flat YoY; NIMs set to pickup in CY21E with rising interest rates
HNB’s 4Q CY20 net profit saw a 28.3% YoY drop on a higher base and driven by ADT (shares k) – 3M 702.0 | 495.9
a higher impairment charge. Total operating income saw a marginal 0.5% drop Free float (%) 42.7 | 87.5
YoY in 4Q CY20 as both NII (-8.0% YoY) and net fee and commissions (-13.3% Public float (%) 68.0 | 99.0
YoY) were weak. Looking ahead, we note that AWPR has been on a general Company website | CSE website
upward trend in 2021, indicating that rates have upward bias. With the deposit Source: CSE, Bloomberg, Company data
book largely repriced (lower rates) in CY20, we believe that the rise in interest Note: LKR converted at 190 LKR per USD
rates would likely lead to NIMs improving in CY21E to 4.30% (+20bps YoY).
Valuation summary Voting | Non-voting
Credit growth picks up in 4Q; better growth in CY21E with improved activity Price at 02 Mar 21 (LKR) 129.75 101.25
Loan book expanded 3.9% QoQ in 4Q CY20 closing CY20 marking a 5.5% YoY Target price (LKR) 165.00 130.00
growth, coming ahead of our estimates. Management indicated that there is
Upside (%) +27.2 +28.4
still demand for working capital-related credit, while investment-liked credit is
CY21E DPS (LKR)* 8.50 8.50
limited. Looking ahead, we expect loan growth to improve to 10.0% in CY21E
driven by mainly by retail and SME segments, while corporate book would likely Total return (%) +33.7 +36.8
start growing from mid-year. Source: Asia Securities |*incl. scrip dividend

Share price movement (indexed to HNB)

NPL stock drops sharply with a large exposure; further reduction in CY21E
HNB’s NPL stock dropped 31.2% QoQ marking a significant improvement in asset LKR
quality. While a large part of this (~20.0% drop) was due to the resolution of 240
the SOE-related NPL, we still note that the underlying asset quality has 220
improved. While impairment charges remained elevated, we note this was due 200
180
to the bank accounting for several at-risk sectors which are currently under
160
moratoriums (~15% of the book is in moratoriums now). Along with this, HNB’s
140
LLP/NPL coverage ratio has increased to 125.8%, while the specific provision 120
coverage has increased to 79.1% marking the best in the industry. Given this, 100
we believe that the bank has provided sufficiently considering the moratoriums 80
at play until March 2021. Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21

HNB ASPI S&P SL20

Unchanged TP for HNB at LKR 165.00/share and HNBNV at LKR 130.00/share
HNB currently trades at 0.4x CY21E BV, while HNBNV is at 0.3x. We believe Movement (%) YTD 3M 12M
that higher loan growth, stronger NIM and tapering down impairments should HNB 3 8 (11)
lead to a 25.7% growth in EPS with an ROE of 10.3% for CY21E. Added to this is
ASPI 8 15 31
the bank’s industry-leading capitalisation position. We maintain our TP for HNB
S&P SL20 10 16 10
at LKR 165.00/share (+27.2% upside; +33.7% TSR) and HNBNV at LKR 130.00/
share (+28.4% upside; +36.8% TSR), and rate both classes BUY. Source: CSE, Bloomberg
Financial summary
In LKR mn 4Q CY19 4Q CY20 YoY % CY20 CY21E YoY %
Net interest income 13,490 12,407 -8.0 50,837 57,528 +13.2
Pre-impairment income 10,192 10,509 +3.1 37,268 39,027 +4.7
Recurring net profit 6,264 4,490 -28.3 13,095 16,665 +27.3
Gross loans and advances 802,707 846,721 +5.5 846,721 931,393 +10.0
Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 12.52 8.77 -29.9 25.58 32.16 +25.7
ROE (%) 10.5 8.7 -1.8pp 8.7 10.3 +1.6pp
P/E (x) 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.0
P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: Historical interim ROE, P/E on a TTM basis
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 Estimate review and revisions
In LKR mn CY20 E CY20 A % var CY21E - O CY21E – N %Δ CY22E - O CY22E – N %Δ
Net interest income 50,926 50,837 -0.2 55,966 57,528 +2.8 59,489 61,191 +2.9
Pre-impairment income 35,150 37,268 +6.0 37,629 39,027 +3.7 40,159 40,865 +1.8
Recurring net profit 11,542 13,095 +13.5 14,484 16,665 +15.1 16,812 19,533 +16.2
Gross loans and advances 822,775 846,721 +2.9 872,141 931,393 +6.8 959,355 1,024,532 +6.8
Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 22.83 25.58 +12.0 27.78 32.16 +15.8 31.23 36.73 +17.6
Tan. BVPS (LKR) 297.50 297.86 +0.1 304.86 319.68 +4.9 315.79 342.38 +8.4
ROE (%) 7.7 8.7 +1.0pp 9.1 10.3 +1.2pp 10.0 11.0 +1.0pp
P/E (x) 5.0 5.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.8
P/B (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: O – Old estimate, N – New estimate

Key ratios
CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Recurring net income growth (%) 8.7 (16.8) (10.7) 27.3 17.2 9.4
Diluted recurring EPS growth (%) 7.8 (18.1) (12.8) 25.7 14.2 6.5
Loan growth (%) 19.2 1.0 5.5 10.0 10.0 10.0
Gross NPL (%) 2.78 5.91 4.31 4.20 4.00 3.80
Net NPL (%) 1.11 3.27 0.90 1.05 1.00 0.95
NIM (%) 5.47 5.26 4.11 4.30 4.35 4.37
NIS (%) 4.9 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7
Cost/income (%) 43.0 47.6 48.3 49.3 50.0 50.3
CASA (%) 34.0 34.4 38.7 34.0 34.0 34.0
Loans/deposits (%) 97.1 96.1 85.1 88.0 93.0 93.0

Tier 1 ratio (%) 12.80 14.57 14.73 14.37 14.49 14.80

Total capital ratio (%) 15.22 18.27 17.99 18.88 18.59 18.59

ROA (%) 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4

ROE (%) 13.8 10.5 8.7 10.3 11.0 11.0
P/E (x) 3.6 4.4 5.1 4.0 3.8 3.6
P/B (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dividend yield (%)* 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.5
Dividend payout (%)* 23.7 27.3 31.3 26.4 24.5 23.0

Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 35.80 29.32 25.58 32.16 36.73 39.10
DPS (LKR) 8.50 8.00 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.00
Tan. BVPS (LKR) 266.48 287.65 297.86 319.68 342.38 364.88

No. of employees 4,781 4,912 4,836 4,788 4,788 4,788

No. of branches 250 250 252 252 252 252
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: *Dividend yield and Dividend payout include both cash and scrip dividends

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 Income statement
In LKR mn CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Net interest income 53,636 56,356 50,837 57,528 61,191 65,288
Net fee and commission income 10,098 9,977 8,026 8,828 9,887 11,074
Net FX income 3,074 732 - - - -
Net trading income (45) 83 - - - -
Net investment income 218 188 - - - -
Total non-interest income 13,344 10,980 8,026 8,828 9,887 11,074
Other operating income 8,134 9,175 13,211 10,569 10,675 10,941
Total income 75,114 76,511 72,074 76,925 81,753 87,304
Personnel expenses (12,291) (14,026) (13,903) (15,374) (16,215) (17,188)
Depreciation and amortization (1,826) (2,704) (2,837) (2,997) (3,147) (3,218)
Other expenses (18,207) (19,699) (18,065) (19,527) (21,525) (23,526)
Total operating expenses (32,324) (36,428) (34,806) (37,898) (40,887) (43,932)
Pre-impairment income 42,790 40,083 37,268 39,027 40,865 43,371
Net impairment charge (9,784) (11,427) (16,047) (11,233) (8,201) (7,579)
Operating profit before VAT and NBT 33,006 28,656 21,222 27,795 32,664 35,792
VAT and NBT (6,843) (8,398) (4,048) (5,302) (6,231) (6,828)
Associate income (pre-tax) 303 187 407 407 407 407
Profit before tax 26,466 20,445 17,580 22,900 26,840 29,371
Income tax expense (7,317) (5,416) (3,918) (5,496) (6,442) (7,049)
Associate income (post-tax) - - - - - -
Minority interest (1,514) (359) (567) (738) (865) (947)
Recurring net income 17,636 14,670 13,095 16,665 19,533 21,375
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | *Breakdown not disclosed in interim reports

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 Balance sheet
In LKR mn CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 24,967 30,264 34,899 37,125 38,642 41,733
Balances with Central Banks 33,907 22,795 7,212 7,672 7,986 8,625
Placements with banks 8,506 15,490 12,126 12,369 12,616 12,869
Reverse repurchase agreements 1,169 2,072 2,827 2,827 2,827 2,827
Derivative financial assets 4,508 527 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032
Financial investments - FVTPL 264 1,155 1,095 1,106 1,117 1,128
Financial investments - FVOCI 76,005 133,953 256,395 243,575 231,396 219,826
Financial investments - HTM - - - - - -
Financial investments – Debt & other 165,822 156,511 193,349 174,015 182,715 191,851
Loans and advances 770,263 769,392 800,816 874,255 959,193 1,033,576
Equity method investments 2,027 2,138 2,522 2,522 2,522 2,522
Property, plant and equipment 42,417 44,024 43,655 41,658 39,511 37,293
Leasehold property - - - - - -
Intangible assets 1,378 1,568 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750
Other assets 17,381 17,745 13,803 13,527 13,257 12,992
Total assets 1,148,614 1,197,635 1,371,483 1,413,434 1,494,565 1,568,024

Liabilities
Customer deposits 818,042 835,060 994,949 1,058,401 1,101,648 1,189,780
Borrowings - Banks 77,976 87,213 89,747 71,797 86,157 103,388
Borrowings - Other 29,924 24,973 32,938 34,585 34,585 34,585
Subordinated debt 21,930 33,346 28,945 30,393 30,393 30,393
Repurchase agreements 16,679 17,569 10,361 8,289 8,289 8,289
Current tax liabilities 9,560 5,621 8,094 8,094 8,094 8,094
Derivative financial liabilities 2,519 573 337 337 337 337
Other financial liabilities – HFT - - - - - -
Other liabilities 34,649 42,808 46,452 25,961 31,692 (18,803)
Total liabilities 1,011,280 1,047,165 1,211,823 1,237,857 1,301,193 1,356,062

Equity
Stated capital 32,338 33,821 35,572 37,364 39,437 41,565
Statutory reserves 6,260 7,060 7,660 8,493 9,470 10,539
Retained earnings 20,181 23,073 29,361 37,832 47,425 57,371
Other reserves 73,882 81,555 81,656 85,739 90,026 94,527
Non-controlling interest 4,673 4,962 5,410 6,148 7,014 7,961
Total equity 137,335 150,471 159,659 175,577 193,372 211,962

Total equity and liabilities 1,148,614 1,197,635 1,371,483 1,413,434 1,494,565 1,568,024

Contingent liabilities 763,214 673,231 631,948 651,278 688,662 722,510

Source: Company data, Asia Securities

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 Top 10 shareholders – Voting (% held)
Shareholder Dec 2019 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Δ YoY (pp) Δ QoQ (pp)

Employees Provident Fund 9.75 9.75 9.75 - -

Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd-Life Fund 8.27 8.45 8.85 +0.58 +0.40

Milford Exports (Ceylon) (Pvt) Limited 7.91 7.91 7.91 - -

Stassen Exports (Pvt) Limited 6.85 6.85 6.85 - -

Mr. S.E. Captain 6.51 6.51 6.51 - -

Sonetto Holdings Limited. 4.91 4.91 4.91 - -

Citibank Newyork S/A Norges Bank Account 2 1.23 4.72 4.72 +3.49 -

Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd-General Fund 4.23 4.23 4.50 +0.27 +0.27

Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka Plc 3.07 3.07 3.07 - -

National Savings Bank 2.87 2.87 2.87 - -

Source: Company data

Top 10 shareholders – Non-voting (% held)

Shareholder Dec 2019 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Δ YoY (pp) Δ QoQ (pp)

UBS Switzerland AG 8.86 8.86 8.86 - -

BNYM SANV Re-Frontaura Global Frontier Fund LLC 5.53 5.53 5.53 - -

Citibank Newyork S/A Norges Bank Account 2 10.08 4.90 4.90 -5.18 -

Akbar Brothers Pvt Ltd A/c No 1 3.95 4.00 4.01 +0.06 +0.01

BNYM SANV Re-Neon Liberty Lorikeet master fund lp 3.71 3.71 3.71 - -

BNYM SANV Re-LF Ruffer total return fund 3.20 2.95 2.95 -0.25 -

CB Europe PLC Lux s/a Dunross and Co AB 2.07 2.07 2.07 - -

Employees Trust Fund Board 1.26 1.80 1.99 +0.73 +0.19

BNYM SANV Re-LF Ruffer absolute return fund 2.13 1.97 1.97 -0.16 -

Mr. S.E. Captain 1.55 1.55 1.55 - -

Source: Company data

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 Analyst Certification
I, Kavinda Perera, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my
personal views about the company. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or
will be, indirectly or directly, related to the specific view or recommendation expressed in this
report.

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Research
Kavinda Perera – Head of Research Lakshini Fernando Naveed Majeed
Strategy | Banks | Insurance | Economics | Finance Manufacturing |
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