SRI LANKA EQUITY | BANKS

EARNINGS UPDATE | 05 MARCH 2021

Commercial Bnk.[COMB]:BUY [+33%] Kavinda Perera

kavinda@asiasecurities.lk
+94 11 772 2044
Strong NII momentum & lower CoR to drive earnings
We increase our TP for COMB to LKR 105.00/share (+5.0% to old; +24.3% Key statistics Voting | Non-voting
upside; +32.5% TSR) and for COMBX to LKR 87.00/share (+4.8% to old; BBG ticker COMB SL | COMBX SL
+11.3% upside; +20.2% TSR). We maintain BUY for both classes. PAT in 4Q CSE ticker COMB.N0000 | COMB.X0000
CY20 was flat YoY (+59.0% QoQ) which came on the back of a strong NII GICS subsector Diversified Banks
growth reflecting robust CASA, coupled with faster deposit repricing. Along
Price at 04 Mar 21 (LKR) 84.50 | 78.20
with this, we expect NIMs to improve in CY21E, albeit modestly, and mainly
100.75/48.95
in 2H. Loan growth in CY20 was 3.3% YoY, and with the expected economic 52 week Hi/Lo (LKR)
|89.90/48.44
recovery, we increase our CY21E forecast to 10.0% (vs. 7.0% previously). Market cap (LKR mn) 98,175
IFC’s LKR 10bn injection has strengthened COMB’s capital position which is Market cap (USD mn) 517
a positive in the current environment. Long-term BUY rating on extremely No. of shares (mn) 1,099 | 68
weak valuations (both classes at 0.6x CY21E BV with an ROE of 12.6%).
ADT (LKR mn) - 3M 110.1 | 8.8
ADT (USD k) - 3M 579.7 | 46.2
Strong NII growth supported by lower cost of funds; NIMs to pickup in CY21E
Net profit in 4Q CY20 was flat YoY (+59.0% QoQ), backed by a strong Net ADT (shares k) – 3M 1,224 | 110.4
interest income (NII) performance and trading and FX gains. NII grew 17.9% YoY Free float (%) 58.2 | 73.7
(+0.3% QoQ) driven mainly by strong deposit repricing and a robust CASA base, Public float (%) 99.8 | 99.9
where ~70.0% of incremental deposits in CY20 came through CASA. With 1) Company website | CSE website
strong loan book growth and 2) interest rates gradually picking up, we expect Source: CSE, Bloomberg, Company data
NIMs to see a pickup in CY21E (+20bps YoY). Note: LKR converted at 190 LKR per USD

Impairment charges elevated in 4Q; CoR to trend down gradually in CY21E Valuation summary Voting | Non-voting
COMB booked impairment charges of LKR 4.7bn in 4Q CY20, closing CY20 with Price at 04 Mar 21 (LKR) 84.50 78.20
LKR 21.4bn in total impairments. G-Sec related impairments (given the Target price (LKR) 105.00 87.00
Sovereign downgrade) and booking additional prudential impairments for some
Upside (%) +24.3 +11.3
of the risk sectors drove this. While the 4Q charge was 37.2% lower than the
CY21E DPS (LKR)* 7.00 7.00
historically high 3Q, we note that CY20 Cost of Risk (CoR) was 227bps – one of
the highest in history, and we believe that the current risk factors are Total return (%) +32.5 +20.2
adequately reflected in the provisioning. Bank’s NPL stock dropped 0.5% QoQ, Source: Asia Securities |*incl. scrip dividend
and in line with our sector view, we expect NPLs and impairment charges to
Share price movement (indexed to COMB)
gradually taper down in CY21E, with CoR reducing to 120bps.
LKR
CY20 closes with soft loan growth, but we raise our CY21E estimate 130
Gross loans grew 1.3% QoQ in 4Q CY20, leading to the loan book expanding 3.3%
YoY in CY20. Management noted that SME loan demand is still concentrated 110
around working capital and short-term financing, while we expect investment-
90
led borrowing would see some pick up from 2H CY21E. We upgrade our loan
growth forecast to 10.0% for CY21E from 7.0% previously. 70

Our TP for COMB moves to LKR 105.00/share and COMBX to LKR 87.00/share 50
We maintain our expectation that CY21E will see a recovery in credit growth Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21
and asset quality, albeit back-end loaded. Both COMB and COMBX trades at COMB COMBX
0.6x BV CY21E with an ROE of 12.6%. While some of the residual macro risk ASPI S&P SL20
factors continue to weigh on the banking sector valuations, we note that the Movement (%) YTD 3M 12M
current valuations are attractive for a long-term play. With our estimate COMB 4 3 2
changes, our TP increases for COMB to LKR 105.00/share (+5.0% to old; +24.3%
ASPI 3 9 26
upside; +32.5% TSR) and for COMBX to LKR 87.00/share (+4.8% to old; +11.3%
S&P SL20 5 9 7
upside; +20.2% TSR). Both classes BUY.
Source: CSE, Bloomberg
Financial summary
In LKR mn 4Q CY19 4Q CY20 YoY % CY20 CY21E YoY %
Net interest income 11,933 14,073 +17.9 50,869 56,569 +11.2
Pre-impairment income 10,805 14,282 +32.2 50,467 46,219 -8.4
Recurring net profit 5,865 5,873 +0.1 16,940 20,472 +20.9
Gross loans and advances 930,737 961,859 +3.3 961,859 1,058,045 +10.0
Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 5.58 5.44 -2.5 15.70 17.28 +10.0
ROE (%) 13.6 11.5 -2.1pp 11.5 12.6 +1.1pp
P/E (x) 5.4 5.9 6.2 4.9
P/B (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: Historical interim ROE, P/E on a TTM basis
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 Estimate review & revisions
In LKR mn CY20 E CY20 A % var CY21E - O CY21E – N %Δ CY22E - O CY22E – N %Δ
Net interest income 49,335 50,869 +3.1 56,387 56,569 +0.3 61,350 59,944 -2.3
Pre-impairment income 45,381 50,467 +11.2 44,204 46,219 +4.6 47,924 47,750 -0.4
Recurring net profit 15,118 16,940 +12.1 18,406 20,472 +11.2 21,309 22,154 +4.0
Gross loans and advances 957,577 961,859 +0.4 1,024,607 1,058,045 +3.3 1,127,068 1,163,850 +3.3
Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 13.47 15.70 +16.6 14.84 17.28 +16.4 16.56 18.18 +9.8
Tan. BVPS (LKR) 122.71 134.88 +9.9 127.73 136.13 +6.6 130.97 140.03 +6.9
ROE (%) 10.6 11.5 +0.9pp 11.7 12.6 +0.9pp 12.6 13.0 +0.4pp
P/E (x) 5.7 6.2 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.6
P/B (x) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: O – Old estimate, N – New estimate

Key ratios
CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Recurring net income growth (%) 6.8 (2.7) (1.9) 20.9 8.2 6.2
Diluted recurring EPS growth (%) 5.3 (6.5) (4.3) 10.0 5.2 3.6
Loan growth (%) 18.1 3.7 3.3 10.0 10.0 8.0
Gross NPL (%) 3.24 4.95 5.11 4.80 4.20 3.80
Net NPL (%) 1.71 3.00 2.18 2.05 1.79 1.62
NIM (%) 4.23 3.96 3.51 3.70 3.83 3.90
NIS (%) 4.3 3.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5
Cost/income (%) 36.8 38.6 34.2 40.3 40.9 41.4
CASA (%) 38.0 37.6 42.9 43.5 42.5 38.0
Loans/deposits (%) 90.3 87.1 74.8 82.0 85.0 90.0

Tier 1 ratio (%) 11.14 12.30 13.22 12.99 12.49 13.57

Total capital ratio (%) 15.33 16.15 16.82 16.68 16.34 17.55

ROA (%) 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

ROE (%) 15.6 13.6 11.5 12.6 13.0 12.3
P/E (x) 7.2 5.1 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.5
P/B (x) 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Dividend yield (%)* 5.1 7.8 6.7 8.3 8.9 8.9
Dividend payout (%)* 37.0 39.6 41.4 40.5 41.3 39.8

Recurring diluted EPS (LKR) 17.55 16.41 15.70 17.28 18.18 18.82
DPS (LKR) 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.50
Tan. BVPS (LKR) 116.71 129.22 134.88 136.13 140.03 161.83

No. of employees 5,027 5,062 5,057 5,042 5,027 5,012

No. of branches 285 287 287 287 287 287
Source: Company data, Asia Securities | Note: *Dividend yield and Dividend payout include both cash and scrip dividends

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 Income statement
In LKR mn CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Net interest income 45,618 48,356 50,869 56,569 59,944 64,824
Net fee and commission income 10,634 10,752 9,822 10,313 11,550 12,936
Net FX income (3,122) 1,079 - - - -
Net trading income 89 282 1,878 1,972 2,071 2,174
Net investment income 272 1,136 6,390 2,341 2,208 2,221
Total non-interest income 7,873 13,248 18,090 14,625 15,829 17,332
Other operating income 11,373 6,082 7,771 6,217 5,595 5,035
Total income 64,864 67,687 76,729 77,411 81,367 87,192
Personnel expenses (13,290) (14,409) (14,993) (17,207) (18,528) (19,950)
Depreciation and amortization (1,603) (2,841) (3,103) (3,534) (3,698) (3,952)
Other expenses (8,994) (8,875) (8,167) (10,450) (11,391) (12,207)
Total operating expenses (23,887) (26,125) (26,263) (31,192) (33,617) (36,109)
Pre-impairment income 40,978 41,561 50,467 46,219 47,750 51,083
Net impairment charge (8,833) (11,332) (21,420) (13,022) (11,825) (12,919)
Operating profit before VAT and NBT 32,144 30,230 29,047 33,197 35,925 38,164
VAT and NBT (6,052) (7,256) (4,531) (5,312) (5,748) (6,106)
Associate income (pre-tax) - - - - - -
Profit before tax 26,093 22,974 24,516 27,885 30,177 32,057
Income tax expense (8,236) (5,564) (7,433) (7,250) (7,846) (8,335)
Associate income (post-tax) 6 10 4 4 4 4
Minority interest (128) (157) (147) (167) (181) (192)
Recurring net income 17,735 17,263 16,940 20,472 22,154 23,534
Source: Company data, Asia Securities

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 Balance sheet
In LKR mn CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E CY2022E CY2023E
Assets
Cash and cash equivalent 44,356 53,681 51,255 51,402 54,546 55,637
Balances with Central Banks 55,407 46,101 115,359 115,359 115,359 115,359
Placements with banks 19,899 24,904 16,422 16,750 17,085 17,427
Reverse repurchase agreements 9,514 13,148 - - - -
Derivative financial assets 7,910 1,831 2,637 2,637 2,637 2,637
Financial investments - FVTPL 5,520 21,468 35,189 28,152 16,891 11,824
Financial investments - FVOCI 176,761 197,825 278,717 209,038 199,643 199,643
Financial investments - HTM - - - - - -
Financial investments – Debt & Other 89,274 107,059 302,060 317,163 333,021 349,672
Loans and advances 868,375 894,677 910,609 995,107 1,090,906 1,173,256
Equity method investments 105 57 64 64 64 64
Property, plant and equipment 17,015 22,423 25,387 22,852 20,154 17,202
Leasehold property 103 102 - - - -
Intangible assets 1,434 1,646 1,801 1,801 1,801 1,801
Other assets 24,240 24,020 22,998 22,998 22,998 23,458
Total assets 1,319,912 1,408,941 1,762,496 1,783,321 1,875,105 1,967,979

Liabilities
Customer deposits 994,371 1,068,983 1,286,616 1,290,299 1,369,235 1,396,619
Borrowings - Banks 52,362 53,807 88,248 70,598 105,898 116,487
Borrowings - Other 25,362 23,249 54,556 38,189 40,099 46,113
Subordinated debt 37,992 37,887 38,247 30,598 36,717 42,225
Repurchase agreements 48,951 51,117 91,412 137,117 95,982 110,379
Current tax liabilities 6,736 5,197 6,991 7,690 8,459 9,305
Derivative financial liabilities 8,022 1,495 1,501 1,501 1,501 1,501
Other financial liabilities – HFT - - - - - -
Other liabilities 25,519 31,192 33,976 40,277 40,925 36,804
Total liabilities 1,199,315 1,272,928 1,601,547 1,616,270 1,698,816 1,759,435

Equity
Stated capital 39,148 40,917 52,188 54,346 57,901 60,947
Statutory reserves 7,444 8,388 9,285 10,309 11,417 12,593
Retained earnings 4,950 5,182 8,124 6,850 6,541 29,442
Other reserves 67,856 79,937 89,596 94,075 98,779 103,718
Non-controlling interest 1,199 1,589 1,756 1,471 1,652 1,844
Total equity 120,597 136,013 160,949 167,051 176,289 208,544

Total equity and liabilities 1,319,912 1,408,941 1,762,496 1,783,321 1,875,105 1,967,979

Contingent liabilities 658,860 580,962 730,562 739,194 777,238 815,735

Source: Company data, Asia Securities

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 Top 10 shareholders – Voting (% held)
Shareholder Dec 2019 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Δ YoY (pp) Δ QoQ (pp)

DFCC Bank PLC A/C 1 13.54 13.43 12.02 -1.52 -1.41

Mr. Y. S. H. I. Silva 8.07 9.70 8.87 +0.80 -0.83

Employees Provident Fund 9.63 9.63 8.62 -1.01 -1.01

CB NY S/A International Finance Corporation 4.44 4.44 7.12 +2.68 +2.68

Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd. - Life Fund 4.93 6.17 5.59 +0.66 -0.58

Citibank New York S/A Norges Bank Account 2 2.29 4.65 4.16 +1.87 -0.49

Melstacorp PLC 4.62 4.62 4.14 -0.48 -0.48

CB NY S/A IFC Emerging Asia Fund. LP - - 3.67 +3.67 +3.67

CB NY S/A IFC Financial Institutions Growth Fund LP - - 3.67 +3.67 +3.67

Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation Ltd. - General Fund 3.90 3.90 3.54 -0.36 -0.36

Source: Company data

Top 10 shareholders – Non-voting (% held)

Shareholder Dec 2019 Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Δ YoY (pp) Δ QoQ (pp)

Employees Trust Fund Board 7.78 7.78 7.78 - -

Akbar Brothers (Pvt) Ltd. A/C No 1 4.16 4.54 4.59 +0.43 +0.05

Deutsche Bank AG as Trustee to Assetline Income Plus Growth

- 2.60 2.60 +2.60 -
Fund

GF Capital Global Limited 2.59 2.59 2.59 - -

Mr. A. H. Munasinghe - 2.43 2.43 +2.43 -

Mr. M. F. Hashim 1.64 1.89 1.89 +0.25 -

Serendip Investments Limited 2.26 2.11 1.72 -0.54 -0.39

M. J. F. Exports (Pvt) Ltd 1.71 1.71 1.71 - -

Mrs. L. V. C. Samarasinha 1.35 1.51 1.51 +0.16 -

Saboor Chatoor (Pvt) Ltd 1.37 1.39 1.39 +0.02 -

Source: Company data

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 Analyst Certification
I, Kavinda Perera, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my
personal views about the company. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or
will be, indirectly or directly, related to the specific view or recommendation expressed in this
report.

Company Certification
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Research
Kavinda Perera – Head of Research Lakshini Fernando Naveed Majeed
Strategy | Banks | Insurance | Economics | Finance Manufacturing |
Telecommunications lakshini@asiasecurities.lk Energy | Construction
kavinda@asiasecurities.lk +94 11 772 2045 naveed@asiasecurities.lk
+94 11 772 2044 +94 11 772 2043

Harini Wijayaratnam Shevon Mendis Semini Mendis

Leisure | Healthcare Banks Consumer
harini@asiasecurities.lk shevon@asiasecurities.lk semini@asiasecurities.lk
+94 11 772 2042 +94 11 772 2047 +94 11 772 2048

Institutional Sales
Sabri Marikar Shiyam Subaulla Niroshan Wijekoon
Deputy Chairman COO, Equities niroshan@asiasecurities.lk
sabri@asiasecurities.lk shiyam@asiasecurities.lk +94 11 772 2007
+94 11 772 2022 +94 11 772 2011 +94 77 771 3645
+94 77 357 6868 +94 77 350 2016

Dayan Fernando Charith Perera Gagani Jayawardhana

Dayan@asiasecurities.lk charith@asiasecurities.lk gagani@asiasecurities.lk
+94 77 735 4081 +94 11 772 2015 +94 11 772 2014
+94 77 359 8937 +94 71 408 4953

Foreign Sales
Lahiru Ariyaratne Udith Wickramasinghe Jeevan Hettigoda
CEO udith@asiasecurities.lk jeevan@asiasecurities.lk
lahiru@asiasecurities.lk +94 11 772 2031 +94 11 772 2080
+94 11 772 2002 +94 71 868 8004 +94 77 378 2661
+94 77 3468103

Retail Sales
Subeeth Perera Priyantha Hingurage Romesh Priyadarshana
subeeth@asiasecurities.lk priyantha@asiasecurities.lk romesh@asiasecurities.lk
+94 11 772 2035 +94 11 772 2033 +94 11 772 2032
+94 71 404 2683 +94 77 350 2015 +94 77 254 8795

Kalana Hewawasam Ashan Silva Yasith Gallage

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