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KEC International (KECI IN)

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs457 | TP: Rs500

February 1, 2023 Healthy execution; disappointing margins


Q3FY23 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco  Order prospects remains healthy at Rs1.1trn.

Change in Estimates  Margins impacted (down 259bps YoY) due to execution of legacy projects
Current Previous
(TBCB order) and continued losses in SAE Brazil.
FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE
Target Price 500 495 We revise our EPS estimates by -55.1%/-6.4%/+1.1% for FY23/24/25, factoring
Sales (Rs. m) 1,82,948 2,03,196 1,81,513 1,99,667
in near term challenges on margins front, despite decent revenue visibility
% Chng. 0.8 1.8
EBITDA (Rs. m) 15,642 19,812 15,991 19,667 given healthy order inflow outlook. However, picking out of legacy orders to
% Chng. (2.2) 0.7
EPS (Rs.) 27.4 40.0 29.3 39.6
lead gradual improvement in margins, sequentially. KEC International (KEC)
% Chng. (6.4) 1.1 reported mixed quarterly performance with revenue growing 31% YoY, while
EBITDA margin contracted by 259bps YoY (due to execution of legacy order
Key Financials - Consolidated and SAE performance). Margins are likely to revive from Q4FY24 (75-100bps)
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E with completion of SAE projects and execution of newer orders. Net debt and
Sales (Rs. m) 1,37,423 1,63,809 1,82,948 2,03,196
working capital are expected to improve, led by better cash collections and
EBITDA (Rs. m) 9,035 7,945 15,642 19,812
Margin (%) 6.6 4.9 8.6 9.8 expected breakeven in SAE. Management is confident to achieve ~20%
PAT (Rs. m) 3,684 1,226 7,049 10,285 revenue growth with order inflows of ~Rs200bn for FY23.
EPS (Rs.) 14.3 4.8 27.4 40.0
Gr. (%) (33.4) (66.7) 474.7 45.9
DPS (Rs.) 4.0 0.7 4.4 8.0 We remain positive on KEC for long term given its 1) strong OB, 2) healthy
Yield (%) 0.9 0.2 1.0 1.8 execution momentum, 3) strong T&D outlook and 4) strong revenue visibility
RoE (%) 10.6 3.3 17.5 21.8
from non-T&D segments like Civil, Railways, Oil & Gas etc., once margins
RoCE (%) 12.4 8.8 17.9 21.5
EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 normalize. The stock is trading at PE of 16.7x/11.4x FY24/25E. Maintain
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.1 19.3 9.6 7.6 ‘Accumulate’ rating with TP of Rs500 (Rs495 earlier).
PE (x) 31.9 95.7 16.7 11.4
P/BV (x) 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.3
Civil and T&D drives revenue growth of 31% YoY: Consolidated sales grew 31%
YoY to ~Rs43.7bn (PL estimate ~Rs40.9bn), led by pickup in Civil up 75% YoY to
Key Data KECL.BO | KECI IN
52-W High / Low Rs.550 / Rs.345
Rs8.5bn, T&D up 40% YoY to Rs22.7bn, while railways declined 5% YoY to Rs9bn
Sensex / Nifty 59,708 / 17,616 and cables down by 5% to Rs3.7bn. Gross margin declined 587bps YoY to 19.6%,
Market Cap Rs.117bn/ $ 1,432m
Shares Outstanding 257m due to execution of legacy projects with adverse commodity prices. EBITDA
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.279.02m declined 16.4% YoY to ~Rs2bn (PL estimate ~Rs2.1bn) while EBITDA margins
contracted by 259bps YoY to 4.6%, due lower gross margin and subdued SAE
Shareholding Pattern (%) brazil performance. SAE reported a EBITDA loss of Rs500mn in Q3FY23. PAT
Promoter’s 51.88 declined 81% YoY to Rs176mn (PL estimate Rs362mn and consensus estimate
Foreign 12.62
Domestic Institution 25.56 Rs802mn), due to poor operating performance and higher interest expenses (up
Public & Others 9.94
81.2% YoY). Interest cost was higher due to increased debt level including interest
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -
bearing acceptance (up Rs7.7bn) and rising interest cost.

Stock Performance (%)


1M 6M 12M
Strong order book of ~Rs290bn: Order Inflows came in at ~Rs50.9bn (down 24%
Absolute (7.7) (2.1) (9.5) YoY on a high base) driven by T&D, Civil and Railways segment. YTD FY23 order
Relative (5.9) (4.7) (10.7)
inflows came in at Rs155.5bn (up 10% YoY). SAE order inflows came at Rs10bn in
Q3FY23 from Brazil, Mexica, USA. Current order book (including L1) in SAE stands
Amit Anwani
at Rs20bn comprising of supply of tower, hardware and polls. Order book stands at
amitanwani@plindia.com | 91-22-66322250
Rs289.8bn as on Q3FY23. Tender pipeline remains healthy at Rs1.1trn, from both
Nilesh Soni
nileshsoni@plindia.com | 91-22-66322214 domestic as well as international market, thereby driving order inflows going
forward.

February 1, 2023 1
KEC International

Legacy order and SAE drags EBTDA margin (down 259bps YoY)
YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr.
Y/e March (Rs mn) Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 9MFY23 9MFY22
(%) (%) (%)
Revenue 33,400 42,748 33,181 40,640 43,746 31.0 7.6 117,567 94,675 24.2
Total Revenues 33,400 42,748 33,181 40,640 43,746 31.0 7.6 117,567 94,675 24.2
Expenditure 31,010 40,231 31,497 38,861 41,747 34.6 7.4 112,104 88,157 27.2
as % of sales 92.8 94.1 94.9 95.6 95.4 95.4 93.1
Consumption of RM 24,879 33,881 24,631 31,812 35,152 41.3 10.5 91,595 70,701 29.6
as % of sales 74.5 79.3 74.2 78.3 80.4 77.9 74.7
Employee Cost 3,227 3,180 3,406 3,545 3,204 (0.7) (9.6) 10,155 9,407 8.0
as % of sales 9.7 7.4 10.3 8.7 7.3 8.6 9.9
Other expenditure 2,904 3,170 3,460 3,504 3,391 16.8 (3.2) 10,355 8,050 28.6
as % of sales 8.7 7.4 10.4 8.6 7.8 8.8 8.5
EBITDA 2,390 2,517 1,684 1,780 1,999 (16.4) 12.3 5,463 6,518 (16.2)
Depreciation 393 419 393 399 408 4.0 2.4 1,200 1,160 3.5
EBIT 1,997 2,098 1,291 1,381 1,591 (20.4) 15.2 4,263 5,359 (20.4)
Other Income 50 34 80 161 17 (65.9) (89.3) 258 100 157.1
Interest 824 954 1,000 1,277 1,493 81.2 17.0 3,770 2,206 70.9
Extra ordinary items - - - - - - - - (436) -
PBT 1,223 1,178 371 266 114 (90.7) (57.0) 751 2,816 (73.3)
Total Tax 287 58 61 (287) (62) (121.5) (78.5) (288) 616 (146.7)
Reported PAT 936 1,120 310 552 176 (81.2) (68.1) 1,039 2,200 (52.8)
Adj. PAT 936 1,120 310 552 176 (81.2) (68.1) 1,039 2,541 (59.1)
Adjusted EPS 3.6 4.4 1.2 2.1 0.7 (81.2) (68.1) 4.0 9.9 (59.2)

Margins (%) Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 bps bps 9MFY23 9MFY22 bps
EBIDTA 7.2 5.9 5.1 4.4 4.6 (259) 19 4.6 6.9 (224)
EBIT 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.6 (234) 24 3.6 5.7 (203)
EBT 3.7 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 (340) (39) 0.6 3.0 (234)
PAT 2.8 2.6 0.9 1.4 0.4 (240) (96) 0.9 2.7 (180)
Effective Tax rate 23.5 4.9 16.4 -107.9 -54.0 NA NA -38.3 21.9 NA
Source: Company, PL

February 1, 2023 2
KEC International

Conference Call Highlights


 Tender pipeline remains healthy at Rs1.1trn, from both domestic as well as
international market.

 Margins were impacted due to execution of legacy project (TBCB project)


and subdued performance in SAE. Margins are likely to bottom out in Q3FY23
and expand ~75-100bps in Q4FY24.

 Management is confident of achieving high single digit margins by


1QFY24 primarily led by Civil segment and SAE performance improving.
Beyond that margins are expected to be in the 8-10% range.

 Net debt incl. acceptances declined ~Rs3bn on QoQ basis to Rs56.2bn


and further targets to reduce it by Rs5bn.

 Net WC at 139 days saw a reduction of 9 days vis a vis 2QFY23.

 There has been no cash collection from Afghanistan, though it expects to


receive Rs2bn in Q4FY23.

 Order inflows declined ~24% mainly due to delay in order finalization.

 Order book stands at Rs289.8bn as on Q3FY23, with legacy order to be ~3-


4% of total order book.

 T&D revenue grew 40% YoY on back of strong execution. Traction remains
strong from Middle East, India, America and Africa. Tendering pipeline remains
strong in both India and overseas. Segment forayed in the growing segment of
HVDC terminal station.

 SAE Brazil bagged orders worth Rs10bn for supply of tower and hardware.
Cost of debt in Brazil is 18-20% and the company is in process of
refinancing it, which will bring it down to 12-13%.

 Railways revenue declined 5% YoY to Rs9bn. It has strengthened presence


in the tech enabled segment with multiple orders in metro for Ballast less
tracks.

 Civil revenue grew 75% YoY, led by strong opening order book execution.
Order inflows were driven by orders from including substantial orders in water
pipelines, public spaces, industrial, residential and data centre segments.
Currently KEC is executing 4 data center orders in India.

 Oil & Gas revenue came in at Rs1.6bn. Order book including L1 stands at
Rs10bn.

 Cables revenue declined ~5% YoY to Rs3.7bn largely due to delay from
customer on account of uncertainty on account of volatile copper and
aluminium prices. Developed 10 new products this year (4 successfully
commercialized).

 Guidance: Confident to meet revenue growth guidance of 20% and order


inflow to be ~Rs190bn for FY23.

February 1, 2023 3
KEC International

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E

Net Revenues 1,37,423 1,63,809 1,82,948 2,03,196 Non-Current Assets


YoY gr. (%) 4.8 19.2 11.7 11.1
Cost of Goods Sold 59,490 77,318 81,961 88,390 Gross Block 21,594 23,594 25,594 27,594
Gross Profit 77,932 86,491 1,00,987 1,14,806 Tangibles 21,594 23,594 25,594 27,594
Margin (%) 56.7 52.8 55.2 56.5 Intangibles - - - -
Employee Cost 12,587 13,596 15,734 18,288
Other Expenses 5,956 7,044 9,275 10,160 Acc: Dep / Amortization 9,161 10,801 12,541 14,445
Tangibles 9,161 10,801 12,541 14,445
EBITDA 9,035 7,945 15,642 19,812 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) (20.8) (12.1) 96.9 26.7
Margin (%) 6.6 4.9 8.6 9.8 Net fixed assets 12,433 12,793 13,053 13,149
Tangibles 12,433 12,793 13,053 13,149
Depreciation and Amortization 1,579 1,640 1,740 1,904 Intangibles - - - -

EBIT 7,456 6,305 13,902 17,908 Capital Work In Progress 2,968 2,968 2,968 3,557
Margin (%) 5.4 3.8 7.6 8.8 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 410 - - -
Net Interest 3,160 5,121 4,789 4,482 Net Deferred tax assets 1,703 1,703 1,703 1,703
Other Income 134 311 311 325 Other Non-Current Assets 3,890 5,815 6,037 9,652

Profit Before Tax 3,994 1,496 9,423 13,751 Current Assets


Margin (%) 2.9 0.9 5.2 6.8 Investments 126 126 126 139
Inventories 10,665 13,015 13,283 13,918
Total Tax 674 269 2,375 3,465 Trade receivables 55,738 65,075 70,172 77,938
Effective tax rate (%) 16.9 18.0 25.2 25.2 Cash & Bank Balance 2,619 2,587 2,658 3,451
Other Current Assets 10,368 9,829 11,526 11,176
Profit after tax 3,321 1,226 7,049 10,285 Total Assets 1,61,248 1,79,779 1,93,002 2,14,257
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 514 514 514 514
Adjusted PAT 3,684 1,226 7,049 10,285 Other Equity 35,685 36,728 42,648 50,877
YoY gr. (%) (33.4) (66.7) 474.7 45.9 Total Networth 36,199 37,242 43,163 51,391
Margin (%) 2.7 0.7 3.9 5.1
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) (363) - 0 0 Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 5,607 13,607 11,107 11,107
Reported PAT 3,321 1,226 7,049 10,285 Provisions - - - -
YoY gr. (%) (39.9) (63.1) 474.7 45.9 Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 2.4 0.7 3.9 5.1
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt 25,039 25,039 25,039 25,039
Total Comprehensive Income 3,321 1,226 7,049 10,285 Trade payables 68,473 71,807 80,196 93,526
Equity Shares O/s (m) 257 257 257 257 Other current liabilities 27,632 33,788 35,200 34,898
EPS (Rs) 14.3 4.8 27.4 40.0 Total Equity & Liabilities 1,61,248 1,79,779 1,93,002 2,14,257
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

February 1, 2023 4
KEC International

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics


Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E Year
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E

PBT 3,994 1,496 9,423 13,751 Per Share(Rs)


Add. Depreciation 1,579 1,640 1,740 1,904 EPS 14.3 4.8 27.4 40.0
Add. Interest 3,160 5,121 4,789 4,482 CEPS 20.5 11.1 34.2 47.4
Less Financial Other Income 134 311 311 325 BVPS 140.8 144.9 167.9 199.9
Add. Other 546 - - - FCF (16.6) (10.6) 33.0 28.6
Op. profit before WC changes 9,279 8,256 15,953 20,137 DPS 4.0 0.7 4.4 8.0
Net Changes-WC (9,253) (8,715) (3,090) (6,738) Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (2,863) (269) (2,375) (3,465) RoCE 12.4 8.8 17.9 21.5
Net cash from Op. activities (2,837) (728) 10,488 9,934 ROIC 10.8 7.5 13.9 16.8
Capital expenditures (1,417) (2,000) (2,000) (2,601) RoE 10.6 3.3 17.5 21.8
Interest / Dividend Income 106 - - - Balance Sheet
Others (736) - - - Net Debt : Equity (x) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6
Net Cash from Invt. activities (2,047) (2,000) (2,000) (2,601) Net Working Capital (Days) 125 124 117 118
Issue of share cap. / premium - - - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes 1,567 8,000 (2,500) - PER 31.9 95.7 16.7 11.4
Dividend paid (1,025) (184) (1,128) (2,057) P/B 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.3
Interest paid (2,725) (5,121) (4,789) (4,482) P/CEPS 22.3 40.9 13.4 9.6
Others 7,141 - - - EV/EBITDA 16.1 19.3 9.6 7.6
Net cash from Fin. activities 4,959 2,695 (8,417) (6,539) EV/Sales 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
Net change in cash 75 (33) 71 793 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 0.2 1.0 1.8
Free Cash Flow (4,269) (2,728) 8,488 7,345 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)


Y/e Mar Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23
Net Revenue 42,748 33,181 40,640 43,746
YoY gr. (%) (2.0) 30.6 13.3 31.0
Raw Material Expenses 18,597 13,139 16,611 17,289
Gross Profit 24,150 20,042 24,029 26,457
Margin (%) 56.5 60.4 59.1 60.5
EBITDA 2,517 1,684 1,780 1,999
YoY gr. (%) (29.0) 5.3 (29.7) (16.4)
Margin (%) 5.9 5.1 4.4 4.6
Depreciation / Depletion 419 393 399 408
EBIT 2,098 1,291 1,381 1,591
Margin (%) 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.6
Net Interest 954 1,000 1,277 1,493
Other Income 34 80 161 17
Profit before Tax 1,178 371 266 114
Margin (%) 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.3
Total Tax 58 61 (287) (62)
Effective tax rate (%) 4.9 16.4 (107.9) (54.0)
Profit after Tax 1,120 310 552 176
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 1,120 310 552 176
YoY gr. (%) (42.3) (32.8) (52.0) (81.2)
Margin (%) 2.6 0.9 1.4 0.4
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 1,120 310 552 176
YoY gr. (%) (42.3) (32.8) (31.2) (81.2)
Margin (%) 2.6 0.9 1.4 0.4
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 1,120 310 552 176
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 257 257 257 257
EPS (Rs) 4.4 1.2 2.1 0.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research

February 1, 2023 5
KEC International
Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
550
1 04-Jan-23 Accumulate 495 474

452 2 08-Nov-22 Accumulate 495 435


3 04-Oct-22 Accumulate 473 440
353
4 14-Sep-22 Accumulate 473 434
255 5 04-Aug-22 Accumulate 473 444
6 05-Jul-22 Accumulate 451 397
157

Jul - 22
Jul - 21
Aug - 20
Feb - 20

Jan - 21

Jan - 23
Jan - 22

7 29-Jun-22 Accumulate 451 415


8 10-May-22 Accumulate 451 367
9 05-May-22 Accumulate 451 375
10 08-Apr-22 Accumulate 559 399

Analyst Coverage Universe


Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 ABB India Accumulate 3,291 2,689
2 Apar Industries BUY 2,260 1,687
3 Bharat Electronics BUY 125 94
4 BHEL Sell 36 80
5 Cummins India Accumulate 1,514 1,396
6 Engineers India BUY 89 80
7 GE T&D India Hold 102 116
8 Kalpataru Power Transmission Accumulate 549 570
9 KEC International Accumulate 495 474
10 Larsen & Toubro BUY 2,481 2,113
11 Praj Industries BUY 520 367
12 Siemens Accumulate 3,290 2,837
13 Thermax Accumulate 2,556 1,956
14 Triveni Turbine BUY 340 276
15 Voltamp Transformers Hold 3,150 2,691

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)


Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

February 1, 2023 6
KEC International

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February 1, 2023 Amnish


Digitally signed by Amnish Aggarwal
DN: c=IN, st=Maharashtra,
2.5.4.20=21151ea12dd366d1ac370cb42343ee44b6e851c37bdbac5f86
aa4ff3e6948487, postalCode=400018, street=570,SADHNA HOUSE,PB
7
MARG,WORLI,Mumbai,Maharashtra-400018,

Aggarwal
pseudonym=5359cd84fad1bdb19c658b8fa14b58ef,
serialNumber=7a6f13691881d5a8af6353865a61b48b7040e72f4a1bf5
3182e368b3ca14a5e4, ou=NA, o=PRABHUDAS LILLADHER PRIVATE
LIMITED, cn=Amnish Aggarwal
Date: 2023.02.01 20:44:45 +05'30'

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