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Change in Estimates Margins impacted (down 259bps YoY) due to execution of legacy projects
Current Previous
(TBCB order) and continued losses in SAE Brazil.
FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Rating ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE
Target Price 500 495 We revise our EPS estimates by -55.1%/-6.4%/+1.1% for FY23/24/25, factoring
Sales (Rs. m) 1,82,948 2,03,196 1,81,513 1,99,667
in near term challenges on margins front, despite decent revenue visibility
% Chng. 0.8 1.8
EBITDA (Rs. m) 15,642 19,812 15,991 19,667 given healthy order inflow outlook. However, picking out of legacy orders to
% Chng. (2.2) 0.7
EPS (Rs.) 27.4 40.0 29.3 39.6
lead gradual improvement in margins, sequentially. KEC International (KEC)
% Chng. (6.4) 1.1 reported mixed quarterly performance with revenue growing 31% YoY, while
EBITDA margin contracted by 259bps YoY (due to execution of legacy order
Key Financials - Consolidated and SAE performance). Margins are likely to revive from Q4FY24 (75-100bps)
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E with completion of SAE projects and execution of newer orders. Net debt and
Sales (Rs. m) 1,37,423 1,63,809 1,82,948 2,03,196
working capital are expected to improve, led by better cash collections and
EBITDA (Rs. m) 9,035 7,945 15,642 19,812
Margin (%) 6.6 4.9 8.6 9.8 expected breakeven in SAE. Management is confident to achieve ~20%
PAT (Rs. m) 3,684 1,226 7,049 10,285 revenue growth with order inflows of ~Rs200bn for FY23.
EPS (Rs.) 14.3 4.8 27.4 40.0
Gr. (%) (33.4) (66.7) 474.7 45.9
DPS (Rs.) 4.0 0.7 4.4 8.0 We remain positive on KEC for long term given its 1) strong OB, 2) healthy
Yield (%) 0.9 0.2 1.0 1.8 execution momentum, 3) strong T&D outlook and 4) strong revenue visibility
RoE (%) 10.6 3.3 17.5 21.8
from non-T&D segments like Civil, Railways, Oil & Gas etc., once margins
RoCE (%) 12.4 8.8 17.9 21.5
EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 normalize. The stock is trading at PE of 16.7x/11.4x FY24/25E. Maintain
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.1 19.3 9.6 7.6 ‘Accumulate’ rating with TP of Rs500 (Rs495 earlier).
PE (x) 31.9 95.7 16.7 11.4
P/BV (x) 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.3
Civil and T&D drives revenue growth of 31% YoY: Consolidated sales grew 31%
YoY to ~Rs43.7bn (PL estimate ~Rs40.9bn), led by pickup in Civil up 75% YoY to
Key Data KECL.BO | KECI IN
52-W High / Low Rs.550 / Rs.345
Rs8.5bn, T&D up 40% YoY to Rs22.7bn, while railways declined 5% YoY to Rs9bn
Sensex / Nifty 59,708 / 17,616 and cables down by 5% to Rs3.7bn. Gross margin declined 587bps YoY to 19.6%,
Market Cap Rs.117bn/ $ 1,432m
Shares Outstanding 257m due to execution of legacy projects with adverse commodity prices. EBITDA
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.279.02m declined 16.4% YoY to ~Rs2bn (PL estimate ~Rs2.1bn) while EBITDA margins
contracted by 259bps YoY to 4.6%, due lower gross margin and subdued SAE
Shareholding Pattern (%) brazil performance. SAE reported a EBITDA loss of Rs500mn in Q3FY23. PAT
Promoter’s 51.88 declined 81% YoY to Rs176mn (PL estimate Rs362mn and consensus estimate
Foreign 12.62
Domestic Institution 25.56 Rs802mn), due to poor operating performance and higher interest expenses (up
Public & Others 9.94
81.2% YoY). Interest cost was higher due to increased debt level including interest
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) -
bearing acceptance (up Rs7.7bn) and rising interest cost.
February 1, 2023 1
KEC International
Legacy order and SAE drags EBTDA margin (down 259bps YoY)
YoY gr. QoQ gr. YoY gr.
Y/e March (Rs mn) Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 9MFY23 9MFY22
(%) (%) (%)
Revenue 33,400 42,748 33,181 40,640 43,746 31.0 7.6 117,567 94,675 24.2
Total Revenues 33,400 42,748 33,181 40,640 43,746 31.0 7.6 117,567 94,675 24.2
Expenditure 31,010 40,231 31,497 38,861 41,747 34.6 7.4 112,104 88,157 27.2
as % of sales 92.8 94.1 94.9 95.6 95.4 95.4 93.1
Consumption of RM 24,879 33,881 24,631 31,812 35,152 41.3 10.5 91,595 70,701 29.6
as % of sales 74.5 79.3 74.2 78.3 80.4 77.9 74.7
Employee Cost 3,227 3,180 3,406 3,545 3,204 (0.7) (9.6) 10,155 9,407 8.0
as % of sales 9.7 7.4 10.3 8.7 7.3 8.6 9.9
Other expenditure 2,904 3,170 3,460 3,504 3,391 16.8 (3.2) 10,355 8,050 28.6
as % of sales 8.7 7.4 10.4 8.6 7.8 8.8 8.5
EBITDA 2,390 2,517 1,684 1,780 1,999 (16.4) 12.3 5,463 6,518 (16.2)
Depreciation 393 419 393 399 408 4.0 2.4 1,200 1,160 3.5
EBIT 1,997 2,098 1,291 1,381 1,591 (20.4) 15.2 4,263 5,359 (20.4)
Other Income 50 34 80 161 17 (65.9) (89.3) 258 100 157.1
Interest 824 954 1,000 1,277 1,493 81.2 17.0 3,770 2,206 70.9
Extra ordinary items - - - - - - - - (436) -
PBT 1,223 1,178 371 266 114 (90.7) (57.0) 751 2,816 (73.3)
Total Tax 287 58 61 (287) (62) (121.5) (78.5) (288) 616 (146.7)
Reported PAT 936 1,120 310 552 176 (81.2) (68.1) 1,039 2,200 (52.8)
Adj. PAT 936 1,120 310 552 176 (81.2) (68.1) 1,039 2,541 (59.1)
Adjusted EPS 3.6 4.4 1.2 2.1 0.7 (81.2) (68.1) 4.0 9.9 (59.2)
Margins (%) Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 bps bps 9MFY23 9MFY22 bps
EBIDTA 7.2 5.9 5.1 4.4 4.6 (259) 19 4.6 6.9 (224)
EBIT 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.4 3.6 (234) 24 3.6 5.7 (203)
EBT 3.7 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 (340) (39) 0.6 3.0 (234)
PAT 2.8 2.6 0.9 1.4 0.4 (240) (96) 0.9 2.7 (180)
Effective Tax rate 23.5 4.9 16.4 -107.9 -54.0 NA NA -38.3 21.9 NA
Source: Company, PL
February 1, 2023 2
KEC International
T&D revenue grew 40% YoY on back of strong execution. Traction remains
strong from Middle East, India, America and Africa. Tendering pipeline remains
strong in both India and overseas. Segment forayed in the growing segment of
HVDC terminal station.
SAE Brazil bagged orders worth Rs10bn for supply of tower and hardware.
Cost of debt in Brazil is 18-20% and the company is in process of
refinancing it, which will bring it down to 12-13%.
Civil revenue grew 75% YoY, led by strong opening order book execution.
Order inflows were driven by orders from including substantial orders in water
pipelines, public spaces, industrial, residential and data centre segments.
Currently KEC is executing 4 data center orders in India.
Oil & Gas revenue came in at Rs1.6bn. Order book including L1 stands at
Rs10bn.
Cables revenue declined ~5% YoY to Rs3.7bn largely due to delay from
customer on account of uncertainty on account of volatile copper and
aluminium prices. Developed 10 new products this year (4 successfully
commercialized).
February 1, 2023 3
KEC International
Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E Y/e Mar FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
EBIT 7,456 6,305 13,902 17,908 Capital Work In Progress 2,968 2,968 2,968 3,557
Margin (%) 5.4 3.8 7.6 8.8 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 410 - - -
Net Interest 3,160 5,121 4,789 4,482 Net Deferred tax assets 1,703 1,703 1,703 1,703
Other Income 134 311 311 325 Other Non-Current Assets 3,890 5,815 6,037 9,652
February 1, 2023 4
KEC International
February 1, 2023 5
KEC International
Price Chart Recommendation History
(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
550
1 04-Jan-23 Accumulate 495 474
Jul - 22
Jul - 21
Aug - 20
Feb - 20
Jan - 21
Jan - 23
Jan - 22
February 1, 2023 6
KEC International
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Date: 2023.02.01 20:44:45 +05'30'