INVESTOR DIGEST

Equity Research | 22 December 2020

Economic Data HIGHLIGHT

Latest 2020F
• Fiscal Watch Dec-20: Potentially Larger Carry-Over Stimulus
7-DRRR (%), eop 3.75 3.75 • Mitra Keluarga: Key Takeaways from 2021 Outlook Conference Call (MIKA; Rp2,650;
Inflation (YoY %) 1.59 2.00 Buy; TP: Rp2,750)
US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,130 14,745 • Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 21 Dec’20

Stock Market Data ECONOMY

(21 December 2020)

Fiscal Watch Dec-20: Potentially Larger Carry-Over Stimulus

JCI Index 6,165.6 1.00%
Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 18,309.5  Total revenue contracted at a steady rate at -15.2% in 11M20. In detail, tax
Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 6,909.1 declined by -15.5%, with an intensifying drop in income tax (since Apr-20),
whereas the contraction in value-added tax slightly narrowed compared to Oct-
20. The only component from the tax side that still had positive growth was the
excise revenue. Meanwhile, the non-tax revenue decreased by -16.0% YoY, led
Market Data Summary*
by the deep decrease in natural resources. Fortunately, the positive growth in
2020F 2021F the public service agency revenue (due to the CPO fund) prevented the non-tax
from declining further.
P/E (x) 24.8 17.6  Based on revenue progress, what sectors have improved? Several sectors
P/BV (x) 2.5 2.3 have shown improvements, such as trading, finance, construction, and
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.2 13.6 transportation. However, the manufacturing sector (biggest slice of the GDP pie)
Div. Yield (%) 2.6 2.1 remained stagnant.
Net Gearing (%) 25.6 23.1
 Our view: FY20 revenue likely to contract between -15% to -17%. In a
ROE (%) 10.0 13.5
broader timeframe, the annual revenue has decelerated in the last 2 years, from
EPS Growth (%) -28.2 40.8
16.6% in 2018 to 0.7% in 2019, and likely -16% in 2020. As the country enters a
EBITDA Growth (%) -13.6 18.3
recovery cycle, the fiscal revenue is expected to register a modest improvement
Earnings Yield (%) 4.0 5.7
(below nominal GDP growth), as the government will still roll out several tax
incentives.
* Aggregate of 73 companies in MS research universe,
representing 64.4%of JCI’s market capitalization  Meanwhile, fiscal spending growth has been solid. Total spending reached
12.7% YoY in 11M20, with social and material spending accelerating by 81% YoY
and 22.5% YoY, respectively, mostly related to the COVID-19 relief expenditure.
The other expenditure post increased the most as a consequence of the PEN
stimulus. On the flip side, energy subsidy dropped by -28.3% YoY due to lower
fuel demand (11.9mn kl in 11M20 vs. 13.8mn kl in 11M19), as well as because of
the lowered fixed subsidy for diesel to Rp1,000/liter from Rp2,000/liter.
Moreover, the capital expenditure contracted by -7.6% amid the budget
reallocation.
 PEN stimulus realization reached 70%, with budget financing already
reaching 100%. The PEN stimulus has reached Rp483.6tn in mid-Dec-20 (70% of
target), with the highest realization rate in social safety net & SME stimulus
(91.5% of target). Meanwhile, the government has started injecting capital to
SOEs, amounting to Rp8.2tn out of the Rp60.7tn target. On the other hand, the
fiscal budget financing has reached 106% of target as of Nov-20 (Rp1,104.8tn as
of Nov-20 vs. Rp1,039.2tn target).

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 Equity Research | 22 December 2020

 Potentially larger carry-over PEN stimulus. All in all, assuming the FY20 fiscal revenue contracts by -16%, with fiscal
spending realization at 95%, the fiscal deficit is expected to be manageable, between -5.8% to -6.0% of GDP (vs. revised
budget target at -6.34% of GDP). Furthermore, the carry-over stimulus could be larger than expected, in our opinion.
Assuming the SOE capital injection is fully executed, followed by additional stimulus in less the next 2 weeks, the
conservative PEN stimulus realization is estimated to reach 85% of target, resulting in a carry-over of around Rp100tn
instead of Rp67tn.

TAX REVENUE DECLINED -15.5% YOY IN 11M20 TAX REVENUE IN SEVERAL SECTORS IMPROVED IN NOV-20,
EXCEPT FOR MANUFACTURE
Tax Revenue Growth Based on Sector
YTD Revenue Breakdown Growth (%YoY)
-27.3%
-26.2%
40.0% Manufacture -25.9%
-23.6%
6.6%
30.0% -32.6%
-17.5%
Trade -27.9%
-23.8%
20.0% -1.0%

% YoY
-25.5%
-40.9%
10.0% Finance -10.9%
-6.8%
2.7%
-23.8%
0.0% -26.9%
Construction -32.7%
-16.5%
-10.0% -15.5% -42.1%
-7.3%
-57.0%
-20.0% -15.9% Mining -63.5%
-41.3%
-23.3%
Apr-20
Feb-20

Sep-20
Jun-20

Jul-20
Mar-20

Oct-20
Aug-20
Jan-20

Nov-20
May-20

-14.6%
-19.4%
Transportation -27.2%
-9.7%
1.2%
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Tax Non-Tax
Nov Oct 3Q 2Q 1Q

Source: MoF Source: MoF

SOCIAL AND MATERIAL SPENDING DROVE THE GOVERNMENT SOCIAL SPENDING INCREASED BY 80.7% IN 11M20
SPENDING
Social Spending Realization 11M20
YTD Spending Breakdown Growth (%YoY) 11M19 11M20
Social Spending Breakdown
100.0%
80.7%
In Rp tn In Rp tn % YoY
80.0% Food Aid 18.9 41.5 119.1%
60.0%
40.0%
Family Hope Program 32.7 36.7 12.4%
22.5% National Healthcare Premium
20.0%
2.2% 35.8 44.6 24.7%
0.0% Aid
-20.0% -7.6%
Indonesia Smart Program 10.0 10.0 0.5%
-40.0%
Indonesia Smart Program -
4.4 6.8 53.2%
Oct-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
Jan-20

Nov-20
Feb-20

Sep-20
May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20
Mar-20

University
Cash transfer 45.8
Personnel Spending Material Spending Disaster Expenditure 3.0 5.3 73.6%
Capital Spending Social Spending Others 1.0 0.6 -43.2%
Total Social Spending 105.9 191.4 80.7%
Source: MoF Source: MoF

WE BELIEVE THE HIGHER MATERIAL SPENDING WAS DUE TO MEANWHILE, CAPITAL SPENDING DECREASED DUE TO BUDGET
COVID-19 RELATED SPENDING REALLOCATION
Material Spending Realization 11M20 (Ministries/Institution only) Capital Spending Realization 11M20
11M19 11M20 11M19 11M20
Material Spending Breakdown Capital Spending Breakdown
In Rp tn In Rp tn % YoY In Rp tn In Rp tn % YoY
Goods 113.0 116.4 3.0% Land 1.9 2.5 30.9%
Services 26.0 21.9 -15.7%
Machine and Equipment 35.4 43.1 21.8%
Maintenance 27.0 30.7 13.7%
Building 19.3 16.7 -13.7%
Travel 38.0 17.2 -54.7%
BLU 29.0 49.4 70.3% Road, Irrigation 56.7 42.1 -25.8%
Goods for public or regional Others 4.3 4.3 -0.7%
35.0 92.2 163.5%
government BLU 2.1 1.9 -9.1%
Total Material Spending 269.0 328.6 22.2% Total Capital Spending 119.7 110.4 -7.6%
Source: MoF Source: MoF

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id

Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id

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 Equity Research | 22 December 2020

CORPORATE

Mitra Keluarga: Key Takeaways from 2021 Outlook Conference Call (MIKA; Rp2,650; Buy; TP: Rp2,750)

 MIKA hosted a conference call yesterday, attended by its CEO and CFO, to provide color on its 4Q20 prognosis number
and 2021 outlook. MIKA’s story next year will still revolve around COVID-19, vaccine, BPJS Kesehatan’s standard class
policy, and recovery of elective cases. Post the conference call, we maintain our Buy rating for the company. Using the
new guidance, MIKA currently trades at 27x EV/EBITDA 12MF (-0.8SD below mean).

 4Q20P to be the record-high quarter. Yesterday, MIKA issued its prognosis number for 2020P and expected to book
record-high quarterly revenue and EBITDA in its 4Q20P. The company expected a Rp1tn revenue (+24% YoY/+16% QoQ)
and Rp383bn EBITDA (adj.) (+56% YoY/+12% QoQ) in 4Q20P (See Fig. 1). Lower EBITDA margin in 4Q20P was attributable
to slightly higher employee cost QoQ. This brought the FY20P to Rp3.3tn revenue (+4% YoY) and Rp1.1tn EBITDA (adj.)
(+10% YoY), vs. 9M20 at -3% YoY/-5% YoY revenue/EBITDA. FY20P accounts for 102% of consensus revenue/EBITDA
estimates, hence largely within expectation.

 Contribution in 4Q20P will still mainly come from COVID-19 cases and diagnostic testing (RT-PCR, etc.), as there are rising-
case trends in all Java regions (MIKA’s key operational areas) and more dedicated facilities for testing and treatment. MIKA
currently treats 750-800 COVID-19 cases/day, c. 45-47% of its total inpatient/day, translating to 53-55% of total revenue
(due to higher case intensity). Non-COVID-19 cases reportedly have recovered to 80% of normal for outpatient and
85-90% of normal for inpatient, as there is less pandemic fear among the public and as doctors have resumed normal
practice hours.

 2021 outlook. In its 2021F, MIKA expects 15-17% YoY revenue growth and 17-19% YoY EBITDA growth, with estimates
that the 1H21F will still be driven by COVID-19 cases and testing, whereas 2H21 driven by the return of elective
cases/procedures as COVID-19 cases diminish post mass vaccination. Sources of revenue growth come from 5-6% YoY
annual price increase, 4-5% YoY intensity increase (given more diagnostic testing), and 5-6% YoY volume increase. The
2021F guidance from MIKA is 2-7% higher than consensus estimates; hence, an upgrade may be needed. MIKA guided for
Rp330bn capex in 2021F for 2 greenfield hospitals.

 Growth strategy. MIKA’s expansion pipeline: 1) open its 26th hospital in Surabaya (Mitra Keluarga Pondok Tjandra) in Jan-
21, with 60 operational beds as a starter, pushed from 4Q20 initial target; 2) add 2 greenfield hospitals in 2021F in Greater
Jakarta (construction starts in 1Q21); 3) pursuing M&A opportunity, currently 1 target in the process; 4) add more
landbanks in Java for future expansion; 5) operate the IVF center in Jan-21, a new center of excellence located in Mitra
Keluarga Kelapa Gading. MIKA will continue to grow its teleconsultation and homecare services to embrace the digital
era.

 COVID-19 cases and diagnostic. MIKA has adapted to the increasing COVID-19 bed demand, especially after the long
weekend at the end of Oct-20, which lead to rising cases. To date, MIKA has assigned >900 beds for COVID-19 cases vs.
700 beds per Sep-20. Admittedly the struggle is mainly to add more ICU beds with ventilators, given the limited capacity.
MIKA has also added more PCR testing centers in the past 3 months; now, it operates 7 testing centers with >1.5k
tests/day vs. 3 testing centers (600 tests/day) in Sep-20.

 COVID-19 vaccination. MIKA has met with the KPC PEN team for vaccination arrangements for 2021 and will participate
in being vaccination centers next year. More details will come on pricing and mechanism; however, MIKA estimates a
small contribution to revenue from vaccination.

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 Equity Research | 22 December 2020

 BPJS Kesehatan’s standard class policy. BPJS Kesehatan will merge its inpatient class from currently offering 3 inpatient
class options to only 1 class—the lowest class in a hospital. MIKA believes this will lead to up-trading from BPJS Kesehatan
participants who want better service. Currently, MIKA’s revenue mix comes from 85% private/15% BPJS. Nevertheless,
Kasih hospital will see less impact from this policy, as most of its BPJS Kesehatan patients are class 3 members, given its
geography and facilities.

MIKA 2020P AND 2021 OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas

Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id

Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id
Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

FROM THE PRESS

Bank Permata (BNLI) announced the completion of merger with Bangkok Bank Indonesia (BBI)
Yesterday, BNLI has stated that the merger with BBI has reached a completion effective 21 Dec-21. According to the
prospectus, the merger should result in shareholders’ equity of Rp36tn in 2020. The merger deal includes capital injection
from Bangkok Bank Limited (BBL) to BNLI amounting to Rp10.8tn. (Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan)

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 Equity Research | 22 December 2020

COVID-19 INDONESIA

Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 21 Dec’20

 Testing: Daily specimens tested dropped to 37k yesterday. Similarly, daily case tested dropped to 25k yesterday.

 New cases: Indo recorded 6,848 new cases yesterday.

 Infection rate: Daily national infection jumped to 28% yesterday (3DMA 20%/7DMA 19%), rising trend driven by Jakarta.
Jakarta daily infection rate was 22% (3DMA 13%/7DMA 11%).

 Epicenters: Jakarta (+1,466), Central Java (+997), East Java (+837), West Java (+716). South Sulawesi saw rapidly rising
cases since end of Nov-20, and saw record-high new cases yesterday of 559. Banten also saw record-high cases of 275
yesterday.

 Hospital capacity: (See chart) Wisma Atlet occupancy as per 21 Dec was 76% in emergency hospital/72% in isolation flat.
Jakarta occupancy was 78% in ICU/85% in isolation.

 From the news: Jakarta will extend PSBB transisi until 3 Jan-21.

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Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

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Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

YTD Chg YTD YTD

Indices Last Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) Last Chg (%)
(%) Chg (%) Chg (%)

JCI 6,165.6 +1.0 -2.1 Rp/US$ 14,130 +0.14 -2.0 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 47.74 -2.8 -21.8
Dow Jones 30,216.5 +0.1 +5.9 US$/EUR 1.224 -0.11 -8.4 Copper (US$/mt) 7,847 -1.7 +27.6
Nikkei 26,714.4 -0.2 +12.9 YEN/US$ 103.32 +0.02 +5.1 Nickel (US$/mt) 17,267 -1.2 +23.8
Hang Seng 26,306.7 -0.7 -6.7 SGD/US$ 1.333 +0.38 +1.0 Gold (US$/oz) 1,877 -0.2 +23.7
STI 2,846.5 -0.1 -11.7 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 19,950 -0.5 +16.2
Ishares indo 23.9 -0.4 -7.0 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,406 -1.1 +12.4
Coal (US$/ton) 79.9 -0.2 +17.9
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 235.8 -0.9 +41.8
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow +6.2 -3,160 5Yr 5.26 +9 -117 39.96 -0.3 +15.9
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow +200.3 -4,562 10Yr 6.06 +8 -100 Baltic Dry Index 1,325.0 +2.0 +21.6

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Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
MANSEK universe 6,166 6,850 11.1 4,447,081 179,204 252,350 24.8 17.6 2.5 2.3 16.2 13.6 -28.2% 40.8% 2.6% 2.1%
Banking 1,735,320 64,115 101,348 27.1 17.1 2.5 2.3 N.A. N.A. -33.4% 58.1% 2.3% 1.4%
BBCA Neutral 34,150 35,000 2.5 841,969 26,722 32,541 31.5 25.9 4.6 4.2 N.A. N.A. -6.5% 21.8% 1.6% 1.5%
BBNI Buy 6,600 7,500 13.6 123,081 4,249 13,755 29.0 8.9 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. -72.4% 223.7% 3.1% 0.9%
BBRI Neutral 4,210 4,000 (5.0) 519,087 19,246 33,603 27.0 15.4 2.7 2.3 N.A. N.A. -44.0% 74.6% 3.3% 1.1%
BBTN Buy 2,000 1,900 (5.0) 21,180 1,510 2,120 14.0 10.0 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. 621.6% 40.4% 2.7% 1.4%
BDMN Buy 3,360 4,000 19.0 32,204 2,703 4,752 11.9 6.8 0.7 0.7 N.A. N.A. -33.6% 75.8% 4.4% 2.9%
BJBR Buy 1,725 860 (50.1) 16,972 1,260 1,438 13.5 11.8 1.5 1.5 N.A. N.A. -19.2% 14.1% 5.5% 5.5%
BJTM Buy 755 590 (21.9) 11,327 1,146 1,434 9.9 7.9 1.2 1.1 N.A. N.A. -16.8% 25.2% 6.4% 6.4%
BNGA Buy 1,065 840 (21.1) 26,765 2,340 4,211 11.4 6.4 0.7 0.6 N.A. N.A. -35.8% 80.0% 5.4% 3.5%
BNLI Sell 2,700 430 (84.1) 75,715 909 1,494 83.3 50.7 3.1 2.9 N.A. N.A. -39.4% 64.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 1,145 1,100 (3.9) 27,580 1,976 3,508 14.0 7.9 0.7 0.6 N.A. N.A. -40.4% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 3,770 3,200 (15.1) 29,043 1,189 1,547 24.4 18.8 4.6 3.8 N.A. N.A. -15.1% 30.1% 1.0% 0.8%
BFIN Buy 486 475 (2.3) 7,273 781 841 9.3 8.6 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 9.7% 7.7% 2.4% 3.2%
AMOR Buy 2,960 2,500 (15.5) 3,124 80 88 39.3 37.2 10.9 11.3 29.6 31.2 -12.9% 5.6% 2.8% 2.6%
Construction & materials 230,531 3,664 8,077 62.9 28.5 1.8 1.7 17.1 12.6 -70.9% 120.5% 1.3% 0.8%
INTP Buy 14,775 14,500 (1.9) 54,390 1,673 2,003 32.5 27.2 2.3 2.1 15.2 13.3 -8.9% 19.8% 1.2% 1.1%
SMGR Buy 12,500 11,020 (11.8) 74,144 2,520 2,825 29.4 26.2 2.2 2.1 11.3 10.6 5.4% 12.1% 1.7% 1.3%
ADHI Buy 1,650 810 (50.9) 5,875 105 361 55.9 16.3 1.0 1.0 11.5 8.8 -84.2% 243.0% 2.3% 0.4%
PTPP Buy 1,920 1,370 (28.6) 11,904 219 754 54.4 15.8 1.0 0.9 13.4 8.7 -76.5% 244.3% 2.3% 0.6%
WIKA Buy 2,080 1,680 (19.2) 18,637 561 1,159 33.2 16.1 1.3 1.2 11.3 8.6 -75.4% 106.5% 0.6% 1.2%
WSKT Buy 1,510 1,230 (18.5) 20,205 -2,141 -1,501 -9.4 -13.5 2.0 2.3 39.5 24.4 N/M 29.9% -2.1% -1.5%
WTON Buy 434 500 15.2 3,783 285 438 13.3 8.6 1.1 1.0 5.5 4.0 -44.4% 53.7% 4.1% 2.3%
WSBP Buy 270 195 (27.8) 7,118 -115 83 -61.7 85.9 1.0 1.0 23.8 16.9 N/M N/M 5.7% 0.0%
JSMR Buy 4,750 7,040 48.2 34,475 557 1,957 61.8 17.6 1.8 1.7 22.3 12.3 -74.7% 251.0% 1.3% 0.3%
Consumer staples 831,560 38,546 48,734 21.6 17.1 4.8 4.3 13.8 11.3 -16.1% 26.4% 4.0% 3.4%
ICBP Buy 9,775 12,050 23.3 113,995 5,977 6,319 19.1 18.0 4.0 3.5 11.2 10.9 18.6% 5.7% 2.2% 2.6%
INDF Buy 7,050 9,950 41.1 61,899 5,919 6,307 10.5 9.8 1.5 1.4 6.5 6.1 20.6% 6.5% 3.9% 4.8%
MYOR Buy 2,770 2,600 (6.1) 61,934 2,413 2,190 25.7 28.3 5.5 4.9 17.4 16.1 21.4% -9.2% 1.2% 1.5%
UNVR Buy 7,625 9,700 27.2 290,894 7,420 8,138 39.2 35.7 58.1 54.0 27.6 25.2 0.3% 9.7% 2.5% 2.6%
GGRM Buy 41,850 63,450 51.6 80,523 7,422 10,321 10.8 7.8 1.5 1.4 7.2 5.7 -31.8% 39.1% 6.2% 6.2%
HMSP Buy 1,530 2,400 56.9 177,967 8,342 13,384 21.3 13.3 5.8 5.0 16.4 9.7 -39.2% 60.4% 7.6% 4.6%
SIDO Buy 790 980 24.1 23,700 912 1,011 26.0 23.4 7.3 7.0 19.5 17.5 12.9% 10.9% 3.2% 3.7%
MLBI Buy 9,800 13,250 35.2 20,649 141 1,063 147.0 19.4 54.1 15.8 35.9 12.5 -88.3% 656.9% 4.4% 0.7%
Healthcare 58,773 842 1,080 69.8 54.4 4.5 4.3 24.5 19.8 30.2% 28.3% 0.1% 0.1%
MIKA Buy 2,650 2,750 3.8 38,559 547 659 70.5 58.5 8.5 7.8 46.5 37.5 -25.1% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0%
SILO Buy 5,450 5,950 9.2 8,856 -44 22 -201.4 398.7 1.5 1.5 12.1 9.5 87.0% N/M 0.0% 0.0%
HEAL Buy 3,820 4,000 4.7 11,357 339 400 33.5 28.4 4.6 4.1 14.2 11.8 32.9% 17.8% 0.3% 0.4%
Consumer discretionary 372,258 20,080 25,115 18.5 14.8 1.9 1.7 12.6 9.8 -33.2% 25.1% 3.1% 2.5%
ACES Neutral 1,830 1,500 (18.0) 31,385 711 1,055 44.2 29.7 6.4 5.6 34.3 24.3 -31.0% 48.5% 1.6% 1.1%
LPPF Buy 1,405 1,800 28.1 4,100 50 497 81.3 8.3 2.3 1.8 6.9 2.8 -96.3% 884.6% 0.0% 0.4%
MAPA Buy 3,050 3,850 26.2 8,694 54 606 159.7 14.3 2.8 2.4 22.9 7.8 -92.1% 1013.2% 0.0% 0.2%
MAPI Buy 920 1,000 8.7 15,272 -1,704 543 -9.0 28.1 3.6 3.2 -141.4 8.9 N/M N/M 1.4% 0.0%
RALS Buy 905 700 (22.7) 6,422 -132 143 -48.7 44.9 1.8 1.7 -94.5 21.0 N/M N/M 6.0% -1.3%
ERAA Buy 2,180 2,000 (8.3) 6,954 268 436 26.0 15.9 1.4 1.3 12.5 10.3 -9.3% 63.0% 0.8% 1.3%
ASII Buy 6,150 6,300 2.4 248,974 17,763 18,098 14.0 13.8 1.6 1.5 11.4 9.7 -18.2% 1.9% 3.9% 3.2%
SCMA Neutral 2,320 2,000 (13.8) 32,259 1,189 1,341 27.1 24.1 6.3 5.3 18.5 16.4 27.2% 12.8% 1.1% 1.7%
MNCN Buy 1,265 2,000 58.1 15,661 1,883 2,266 8.3 6.9 1.2 1.0 5.6 4.8 -15.7% 20.3% 1.2% 2.2%
PZZA Buy 840 750 (10.7) 2,538 -2 130 -1,230.3 19.5 2.1 1.9 13.8 7.4 N/M N/M 3.9% 0.0%
Commodities 398,760 17,069 23,710 23.3 16.8 1.7 1.6 7.8 6.5 -29.8% 38.9% 1.6% 2.1%
UNTR Buy 28,275 31,700 12.1 105,470 7,172 10,603 14.7 9.9 1.7 1.5 5.9 4.4 -36.6% 47.8% 2.0% 3.0%
ADRO* Buy 1,555 1,750 12.5 49,738 207 256 16.8 13.7 0.9 0.9 5.0 4.6 -48.9% 24.0% 2.6% 2.5%
HRUM* Neutral 3,200 3,000 (6.2) 8,213 29 10 20.1 59.7 1.7 1.8 11.5 16.1 54.7% -66.1% 2.7% 0.9%
INDY* Neutral 1,990 910 (54.3) 10,368 2 6 439.8 114.6 0.8 0.8 2.5 2.1 N/M 286.9% 0.1% 0.2%
ITMG* Neutral 15,075 15,000 (0.5) 16,531 58 93 20.1 12.5 1.4 1.3 6.8 5.1 -54.5% 61.3% 4.2% 6.8%

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 Equity Research | 22 December 2020

Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
PTBA Buy 3,040 3,100 2.0 35,028 2,246 2,917 15.5 11.9 2.0 1.9 10.5 7.9 -47.3% 29.9% 4.8% 6.2%
ANTM Buy 1,965 1,850 (5.8) 47,220 1,172 1,739 40.3 27.2 2.1 2.0 16.5 13.5 504.7% 48.3% 0.9% 1.3%
INCO* Neutral 5,400 4,000 (25.9) 53,656 103 106 36.6 35.6 1.8 1.8 11.8 11.4 78.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Neutral 1,595 800 (49.9) 11,879 -111 357 -106.8 33.3 2.2 2.0 24.2 13.3 81.8% N/M -0.3% 1.1%
MDKA* Buy 2,770 2,100 (24.2) 60,656 64 99 66.2 43.0 7.6 6.5 20.6 16.1 -11.8% 55.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 133,474 5,740 8,875 23.3 15.0 1.0 1.0 13.0 11.3 -29.2% 54.6% 1.8% 1.3%
ASRI Buy 288 210 (27.1) 5,659 42 683 135.5 8.3 0.5 0.5 12.2 9.0 -95.9% 1534.2% 0.7% 0.7%
BSDE Buy 1,315 1,160 (11.8) 27,840 1,399 2,050 19.9 13.6 0.9 0.8 13.8 12.8 -54.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.3%
CTRA Buy 1,055 1,120 6.2 19,581 832 1,094 23.5 17.9 1.2 1.2 13.5 11.6 -28.2% 31.5% 0.7% 0.7%
JRPT Buy 615 670 8.9 8,456 997 1,065 8.5 7.9 1.1 1.0 7.5 6.8 -1.9% 6.7% 3.1% 0.1%
PWON Buy 575 770 33.9 27,692 985 1,879 28.1 14.7 1.8 1.6 15.8 10.5 -63.8% 90.7% 1.0% 1.0%
SMRA Buy 900 960 6.7 12,984 420 604 30.9 21.5 1.7 1.6 12.4 11.2 -18.5% 43.8% 0.6% 0.6%
LPKR Neutral 244 200 (18.0) 17,224 74 391 233.2 44.0 0.6 0.6 13.3 13.4 N/M 429.7% 0.4% 0.4%
DMAS Buy 250 300 20.0 12,050 885 988 13.6 12.2 2.1 2.1 13.1 11.8 -33.7% 11.7% 12.8% 8.4%
BEST Neutral 206 130 (36.9) 1,987 107 122 18.6 16.3 0.4 0.4 8.0 11.5 -72.0% 14.2% 1.7% 0.5%
Telecom 503,091 24,823 26,452 20.3 19.0 3.2 3.1 6.6 6.2 -0.7% 6.6% 3.6% 3.8%
EXCL Buy 2,900 3,600 24.1 30,884 2,186 1,340 14.1 23.0 1.5 1.4 5.0 4.6 207.9% -38.7% 0.7% 0.6%
TLKM Buy 3,520 3,900 10.8 348,699 19,403 21,026 18.0 16.6 3.4 3.2 6.2 5.9 4.0% 8.4% 4.5% 4.8%
ISAT Buy 5,500 3,200 (41.8) 29,887 -1,046 -648 -28.6 -46.1 2.6 2.7 6.0 5.3 N/M 38.1% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 2,660 3,300 24.1 7,548 736 744 10.3 10.1 1.6 1.5 4.4 4.3 -17.8% 1.1% 5.8% 4.9%
TBIG Buy 1,635 1,400 (14.4) 35,367 1,068 1,264 33.1 28.0 6.5 5.8 13.6 12.7 30.4% 18.3% 1.7% 1.7%
TOWR Buy 1,010 1,300 28.7 50,707 2,476 2,725 20.5 18.6 5.1 4.4 11.4 10.6 5.7% 10.1% 2.4% 2.4%
Transportation 4,116 -175 251 -23.5 16.4 0.8 0.8 16.8 6.3 -155.7% N/M -1.1% 1.5%
BIRD Buy 1,645 1,700 3.3 4,116 -175 251 -23.5 16.4 0.8 0.8 16.8 6.3 N/M N/M -1.1% 1.5%
Poultry 135,684 2,988 5,574 45.4 24.3 3.8 3.4 20.1 13.6 -46.2% 86.5% 1.2% 0.9%
CPIN Buy 6,975 6,950 (0.4) 114,376 2,775 3,728 41.2 30.7 5.1 4.6 23.6 19.2 -23.6% 34.3% 1.2% 1.0%
JPFA Buy 1,650 1,700 3.0 19,349 344 1,696 56.2 11.4 1.8 1.5 12.9 6.7 -80.5% 392.5% 1.2% 0.5%
MAIN Buy 875 700 (20.0) 1,959 -131 150 -14.9 13.1 1.0 0.9 15.4 5.6 N/M N/M 0.0% 0.0%
Oil and Gas 43,514 1,511 3,133 28.8 13.9 1.1 1.1 8.4 6.8 61.2% 107.4% 1.4% 2.9%
PGAS* Buy 1,795 1,700 (5.3) 43,514 106 221 28.8 13.9 1.2 1.1 8.4 6.8 56.4% 109.1% 1.4% 2.9%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable

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RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542
Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer, Retail lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9549
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572
Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9623
Silvony Gathrie Banking silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544
Inggrid Gondoprastowo Healthcare, Consumer, Retail inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9450
Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant riyanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9488
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Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant wesley.alianto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9510
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Imanuel Reinaldo Economist imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9651

INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Silva Halim Managing Director silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales henry.pranoto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales kevin.giarto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales sharon.tjahjadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales angga.assaf@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales Ilona.simanungkalit@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375

RETAIL SALES
Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9693
Boy Triyono Jakarta boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 5678
Care Center Online Jakarta care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032
Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id 6261 8050 1825
Linawati Surabaya linawati@mandirisek.co.id 6231 535 7218
Maulidia Osviana Lampung maulidia.osviana@mandirisek.co.id 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
Yudhistira Putra Pradana Bandung yudhistira.pradana@mandirisek.co.id 6222 426 5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id 62361 475 3066
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INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).

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