2-2 Basic Definitions: Events, Sample Space, and Probabilities ‘To understand probability, some familiarity with sets and with operations involving sets is useful, Asset isa collection of elements. The clements of a set may be people, horses, desks, cary, files in a cabinet, or even numbers. We may define our set as the collection of all horses in a given pasture, all people in a room, all cars in a given parking lot at a given time, all the numbers between 0 and 1, or all integers. The number of elements in a set may be infinite, as in the last two examples. ‘A set may also have no elements, ‘The empty sot Is the set containing no elements. It's denoted by 2. We now define the universal set. ‘The untversal set Is the set containing everything in a.ghen context. We denote the untversal set by S. Given asset A, we may define its camplemene ‘The complement of set A Is the set containing all the elements in the uni- ‘versal set S that are not members of set A. We denote the complement of Aby. The set ls often called “not A.” _A\Venn diagram isa schematic drawing of sts that demonstrates the relationships botween different sets. Ina Venn diagram, setz are shown as cirles, or other closed figures, within a rectangle corresponding to the universal set, S. Pigure 2-1 is a Venn diagram demonstrating the relationship between a set A and its complement %. "As an example of a sot and its complement, consider the following. Let the uni- versal sot S be the set of all students at a given university. Define Aa the sot of all students who own a car (at least one car). The complement of A, or A, is thus the set of all students at the university who da norown a car. Sets may be related in a number of ways. Consider two sets A and B within the context af the sams universal set S. (We say that A and B are subset af the universal set S} IFA and Bhave some elements in common, we say they iavesec. ‘The Intersection of A and B, denoted An B, is the set containing all ele- ‘ments that are members of both A and 8. When we want to consider all the elements af two sets A and B, we look at their ‘The unlon of A and B, denoted A UB, Is the set containing all elements that are members of elther A or B or Both,FIGURE 2.1 ASet A and its Complement FIGURE 2.2 Sets @ and B and Ther intersection FIGURE 2-3 The Union of Aand 8 FIGURE 2-4 Two Disjont Sets As you can see from these definitions, the union of two sets contains the intersec- tion of the two sets. Figure 2-2 is a Venn diagram showing two sets A and B and their intersection AA B. Figure 2-8 is a Venn diagram showing the union of the same sets. -As an example of the union and intersection of sets, consider again the set of all students al a university who own a car. This is set A. Now define set B as the sot of all students at the university who own a bicycle. The universal set Sis, as before, the set ofall students at the university. And A 71 Bisthe intersection of A and B—itis the set of all students at the university who own both a car and a bicycle. And A U Bis, the union of A and Bit is the set of all students at the university who own either a ‘ar or abicycle or both. “Two sets may have no intersection: They may be disjotnt. In such a case, we say that the intersection of the two sels is the empty sot @.In symbols, when A and Bare digint, Af B= @. As an example of two disjoint sets, consider the set of all students enrolled in a business program at a particular university and all the stuclents at the university who are enrolled in an art program. (Assume no student is enralled. in both programs.) A Venn diagram af two disjoint sels is shown in Figure 2-4. ‘In probability theory we make use of the idea of a set and of operations involving, sets. We will now provide some basic definitions of terms relovant tothe computation of probability. These are an experimen, a sample space, andl an event. ‘An experiment is a process that leads to one of several possible outeomes. ‘An outcome of an experiment is some observation or measurement. Drawing a card out of a deck of 52 cards is an experiment. One outcome of the ‘experiment may be that the queen of diamonds is drawn. “A single outcome of an experiment is called a basic oicome or an elementary cent. Any particular card drawn from a deck isa basic outcome. ‘The sample space Is the universal set 5 pertinent to a given experiment. ‘The sample space Is the set ofall possible outcomes of an experiment.FIGURE 2-5 _ Sample Space for Drawing a Card ‘The sample space for the experiment of drawing a card out of a deck is the set of al cards in the deck. The sample space for an experiment of reading the temperature is the set of all numbers in the range of temperatures. ‘An event Isa subset of a sample space. Its set of basic outcomes. We say that the event occurs if the experiment gWves rise to a basic outcome belonging to the event. For example, the event “an ace is drawn out of a deck of cards" isthe set of the four ‘aces within the sample space consisting of all 52 cards. This event occurs whenever Cone of the four aces (the basic outcomes) is drawn. “The sample space for the experiment of drawing a card out of a deck of 52 cards is shown in Figure 2-5. The figure also shows event A, the event that an ace is drawn. In this context, far a given experiment we have a sample space with equally likely basic outcomes. When a card is drawn out ofa wel-shuflled deck, every one of the cards (the basic outcomes) is as likely to occur as any other. In such situations, it seems Tea- sonable to define the probability of an event as the rdatve siz ofthe event with respect to the size of the sample space. Since a deck has 4 aces and 52 cards, the size of A is 4 and the size of the sample space is $2. Therefore, the probability of A is equal to 4/52 “The rule we use in computing probabilities, assuming equal likelihood of all basic outcomes, is as follows: Probability of event A: ra) PA) = 56) a ‘where ‘n(A) = the number of elements in the set of the event A ‘n{S) = the number of elements in the sample space $‘Chapter 2 FIGURE 2-6 The Events and ¥ and Their union and intersection ‘The probability of drawing an ace is P(A) = n(Al/n(S) = 4/52. PraProbability 2-5. Let G be the event that agi is born. Let F be the event that a baby over 5 pounds s brn. Characterize the union andthe intersection ofthe two event 2-6. Consider the event that a player scores a point ina game against team A and the event thatthe same player scores porn in & game against tam B. What ithe union ofthe two events? What isthe intersection ofthe two events? 2-7. A dicistossed twice and the two outcomes ae noted. Drave the Venn diagram ofthe sample space and indicate the event “the second tsi greater than the Brst™ Calculate the probability of the event 2-8. Ford Motor Company advertises its cars on radio and on television. The com pany is inloresed in assessing the probabily that a randoraly chosen person is {Exposed to at last one ofthese two modes of advertising. If we deine event R asthe event that a randomly chosen person was exposed o a radio advertisement and tventT asthe event thatthe person was exposed o a llevsion commercial, define RUTand RAT inthis context. 2-9, A brokerage frm deals in stocks and bonds. An analyst for the frm i inter- ‘sted in asresing the probability that a person who inquces about the frm will even tually purchase sock (event §) or Bonds (event Bl. Define the union and the Intersection ofthese two evens. 2-10, "The European version of roulette is diferent from the U.S. version in thatthe Earopean route wheel does’ have O0. How does thischange the probability of win- ning when you bet ona single number? European casinos charge a small admission fc, which i ot the casein US. cases. Doss this make seae 1 you, based on your answer to the earier question? 2-3 Basic Rules for Probability ‘We have explored probability on a somewhat intuitive level and have seen rules that help us evaluate probabilities in special cases when we have a known sample space with equally likely basic oulcomes. We will now look at some probability rules that hold regardless of the particular situation or kind of probability (objective ‘or subjective). Prt, et us give a general definition of probability. Probabilty Is a measure of uncertainty. The probability of event A Is a rhumerical measure of the likelinood of the event's occurring, The Range of Values Probability obeys certain rules. The frst rule sets the range of values that the proba bility measure may take. Forany event A, the probabilty (A) sass O=mA=1 an When an event cannot occur, it probability s zero, The probability of the empty set iszero: PIC) ~ 0. Ina deck where half the cards are red and half are black, the prob- ability of drawing a green card is zero because the set corexponding to that event is the empty set: There are no green cards. Events that are certain to occur have probability LOO, The probability of the entice sample space Sis equal to 1.00: {S) = 1.00. If we draw a card out ofa deck, ‘of the 52 cards inthe deck will certainly be drawn, and so the probability ofthe sample space, the st ofall 52 cards is equal to 1.00.Chapter 2 FIGURE 27 Interpretation of a Probabulty op + a bent sot very ert as bert every icyou Bybee heer pretence ents mare ee egies gecuetian San scto eco. ‘Within the range of values 0 to 1, the greater the probability, the more confidence wwe have in the occurrence of the event in question. probability of 0.25 implies a very high confidence in the occurrence of the event. A probability of 0.80 implies a high confidence. When the probability is 0.5, the event is as likely to occur as itis rot to occur. When the probability is 0.2, the event is not very likely to occur. When wwe assign a probability of (105, we believe the event is unlikely to oceur, and so an. Figure 2-7 isan informal aid in interpreting probability. ‘Note that probability isa measure that goes from 0 to 1, In everyday conversation we often describe probability in less formal terms. For example, people sometimes talk about odds. Ifthe odds are 1 to 1, the probability is 1/2; if the adds are 1 to 2, the probability is 1/3; and so on. Also, people sometimes say, “The probability is 80 percent.” Mathematically, this probability is 0.80, The Rule of Complements ur second rule for probability defines the probability of the complement of an event.in terms ofthe probability of the original event. Recall that the complement of set A isdenoted by X. Probability of the complement: AA) = 1 — RA) (23) ‘As a simple example, ifthe probability of rain tomorrow is 0.3, then the probability of no rain tomorrow must be 1 — 0.3 = 0.7 Ifthe probability of drawing an ace is 4/52, then the probability of the drawn card’s not being an ace is | — 4/52 = 48/52. ‘The Rule of Unions. We now slate a very important ru, the tule of unions. The rule of unions allows ws to write the probability of the union of two events in terms of the probabilities of the two events and the probability of theie intersection’! Tho rule of unions: PIU B) = P(A) + A) — ANB) 4)Probably (The probability of the intersection of two events P(A AB) is called their Joint [robabilty} The meaning of this ule ie very simple and insitve: When we add the probablies of A and B, we are measuring, or counting, the probability oftheir inter ection arice-once when measuring the relative sie of A within the sample space and ‘once when doing this with, Since the elatve size, or probability, ofthe interescton of the two sts is counted twice, we subtract it once so tat we are lef withthe tre proba bility ofthe unin ofthe two events (refer to Figure 2-6). Note that instead of finding the probability ofA U By direct counting, we can uve the rule of unions: We know thatthe probability of an ace i 4/52, the probability of a heat is 13/52, andthe probability of {heir intersction—the drawn card being the ace of rare 1/52. Thus, A U ¥) = 4/52 + 13/52 ~ 1/52 = 16/52, which sexacly what we find from direct. “The rule of unions is especially usefil when we do not have the sample space for the union of events but do have the separate probabilides, For example, suppose your chance of being offered a certain job is 0, your probability of geting anoter job is 0.5, and your probability of being offered bothjobs (Le, the intersection) is 0.3 By the rule of unions, your probability of being offered at leat one ofthe two jobs (their union) s0.4+ 05-03 = 08. ‘Mutually Exclusive Events ‘When the sets corresponding to two evens are disjoint ie, have no intersection), the ‘wo events ae called mutually exclusive (we Figure 2-4). For mutually exclusive events, the probability ofthe intersection ofthe events is zero. This i to because the intersection of the evens isthe empty set, and we know thatthe probability of the empty set is zero. For mutually exclusive events A and B: RAN B)=0 @s) “This fact gives usa special rule for unions of mutually exclusive evens. Since the probability of the intersection of the two events i 20 there i no need to subtract ‘PAC B) when the probability of the union ofthe twa events is computed. Therefore, For mutually exclusive events A and B: PLA.U B) = POA) + PCB) eH “This is not really a new rule since we can always use the rule of unions forthe union cof two events: Ifthe events happen to be mutually exclusive, we subtract ero a the probabiliy of the intersection. “To continue our cards example, whats the probability of drawing ether a heart or ‘aclub? We have PY U &) = PIV) + Pa) = 13/52 + 13/52 = 26/52 = 1/2. We need ‘ot subtract the probabil of an intersection, since no card is both a club and a heart 2A, According to an article in Forte, institutional investors recently changed the proportions oftheir pordolios toward public sector funds.* The article implies that #% ‘of investors studied invest in public sector funds and 6h in corporate funds. Assume that 2 invest in both kinds. Ian investor is chosen at random, what is the probability that this investor as either public or corporate funds? Sista Ream Mar 076.Chapter 2 LAX, According to The New Yonk Times, 5 million BlackBerry users found their devices nonfunctional on April 18, 20075 If there were 18 million users of handheld data devices ofthis kind on that day, what isthe probability that a randomly chosen user could not use a device? 218. In problem 2-12, assume that 3 million out of 18 million users eauld not use their deviees as cellphones, and that | milion could not use their devices asa cell- phone and for data device. What is the probability that a randomly chosen device Could not be used either for data or for voice communication? 2-44. According to a report on CNN Business News in April 1995, the probability of being murdered (in the United States) in I year is in 100,000, How might such a probability have been obtained? 2.45. Assign a reasonable numerical probability to the statement “Rain is very likely tonight.” 2-16. How likely isan event that has a 0.65 probability? Describe the probability in words, 2-17, Ifatcam hasan 80% chance of winning a game, describe its chances in words. LAB. ShopperTrak is a hidden electric eye designed to count the number of shoppers entering a store. When twa shoppers enter a siore together, one walking in front of the other, the following probabilities apply: There is a 0.98 probability thatthe first shop- per will be detected, a 0.94 probability that the second shopper wil be detected, and a (0.93 probability that both of them will be detected by the device. What isthe probabil. ity that the device will detect atleast one of two shoppers entering together? 19. A machine produces components for use in cellular phones. At any given time, the machine may be in one, and only one, of three states: operational, out of control, or down. From experience with this machine, a quality control engineer knows thatthe probability that the machine is out of control at any moment is 0.02, and the probability that itis down is 0.015. «2, What isthe relationship between the two events “machine is out of control” and “machine is down"? 4 When the machine is ether out of control or down, a repair person must be called. What i the probability that a repair person must be ealled right now? Unless the machine is down, it can be used to produce a single item. Whatis the probability that the machine can be used to produce a single component right now? What is the relationship between this event and the event machine is down"? 2-20, Following are age and sex data for 20 midlevel managers at a service com- pany: 34 F,49 M,27 M, 63 F, 33 F, 29 F, 45 M, 45 M,30 F,39 M42 M, 30, 48M, 135 F, 82 F, 37 F, 48 F, 50M, 48 F, 61 FA manager must be chosen at random to serve on a companywide committe that deals with personnel problems. What i the probability that the chosen manager will be either a woman or over 50 years old oF both? Solve both directly from the data and by using the law of unions. What is the probability thal the chosen manager will be under 30? 2-21. Suppose that 25% of the population in a given area is exposed to a television commercial for Ford automobiles, and 34% is exposed to Ford's radio advertisements. ‘Also, itis known that 10% of the population is exposed to both means of advertising. Ifa person is randomly chosen out of the entire population in this area, what is the probability that he or she was exposed to a least one ofthe two modes of advertising? 2.92. Suppose it is known that 85% of the people who inquire about investment opportunities at a brokerage house end up purchasing stock, and 33% end up purchasing bonds Its also known that 28% ofthe inguirers end up geting a portfolio “ttn ref hey th Unt Maks Da” Fi Naw iT. Ae 19,207,with both stocks and bonds. Ifa person is ust making an ingury, what ithe probabil {gy tha she or he will get stock or bonds or bath (Le. open any portolio)? 2-23. A firm has 550 emplayees; 380 of thems have had at least me colloge edu ‘ation, and 412 of the employees underwent a vocational Waining program. Furlher- ‘more, 357 employees both are callegeeducaled and have had the vocatioaal training. [fam employee i chosen at random, what i the probability that he or she i college educated or has had the training or both? 2-24. Tn problem 2-12, what ie the probability that a randomly chosen user could use hie or Ber device? 2.25, Aspart of a student project forthe 1994 Science Fairin Orange, Massachusets, 2B horses were made to listen to Mocart and heavy-metal music. The results were ab fallows: 11 of the 28 horses exhibited some head movements when Mozart was played ‘exhibited some head movernents when lhe heavy metal was played, and 5 moved their heads when both were played. [a horse is chosen at random, whats the proba bility the horse exhibited head movements to Movart orto heavy metal orto bath?