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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Chapter 2
Part I: Discrete Random Variable and Probability
Distributions

Dr. Cao Van Kien

vankien.tt@gmail.com

January 8, 2021

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Outline

1 Random variable

2 Probability mass function

3 Cumulative distribution function

4 Expectation

5 Variance

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Random variable (bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
A random variable is a function from a sample space S into the real numbers. We
usually denote random variables with uppercase letter, e.g., X, Y , . . .

X : S → R.

Example:

• Experiment: toss a coin 2 times, random variable: X = number of heads in 2


tosses.
• Experiment: toss 10 dice, Random variable: X = sum of the numbers.
• Experiment: apply different amounts of fertilizer to corn plants, Random
variable: X = yield/acre.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Random variable (bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
A random variable is a function from a sample space S into the real numbers. We
usually denote random variables with uppercase letter, e.g., X, Y , . . .

X : S → R.

Example:

• Experiment: toss a coin 2 times, random variable: X = number of heads in 2


tosses.
• Experiment: toss 10 dice, Random variable: X = sum of the numbers.
• Experiment: apply different amounts of fertilizer to corn plants, Random
variable: X = yield/acre.

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 3 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Random variable (bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
A random variable is a function from a sample space S into the real numbers. We
usually denote random variables with uppercase letter, e.g., X, Y , . . .

X : S → R.

Example:

• Experiment: toss a coin 2 times, random variable: X = number of heads in 2


tosses.
• Experiment: toss 10 dice, Random variable: X = sum of the numbers.
• Experiment: apply different amounts of fertilizer to corn plants, Random
variable: X = yield/acre.

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 3 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Sample space of random variable (khæng gian m¨u cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

• In defining a random variable, we have also defined a new sample space. For
example, in the experiment of tossing a coin 2 times, the original sample
space is
S = {HH, HT, T H, T T } .

• We define a random variable X = number of heads in 2 tosses. The new


sample space is
Range(X) = {0, 1, 2}

• The new sample space Range(X) is called the range (mi·n gi¡ trà) of the
random variable X .

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Sample space of random variable (khæng gian m¨u cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

• In defining a random variable, we have also defined a new sample space. For
example, in the experiment of tossing a coin 2 times, the original sample
space is
S = {HH, HT, T H, T T } .

• We define a random variable X = number of heads in 2 tosses. The new


sample space is
Range(X) = {0, 1, 2}

• The new sample space Range(X) is called the range (mi·n gi¡ trà) of the
random variable X .

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Sample space of random variable (khæng gian m¨u cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

• In defining a random variable, we have also defined a new sample space. For
example, in the experiment of tossing a coin 2 times, the original sample
space is
S = {HH, HT, T H, T T } .

• We define a random variable X = number of heads in 2 tosses. The new


sample space is
Range(X) = {0, 1, 2}

• The new sample space Range(X) is called the range (mi·n gi¡ trà) of the
random variable X .

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Type of Random Variables (c¡c lo¤i bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
A random variable X is said to be discrete (ríi r¤c) if it takes only a countable
number of possible values, i.e., Range(X) is a finite or countably infinite set.
Otherwise, it said to be continuous (li¶n töc).

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Examples of Continuous Random Variables

Example: Below are some examples of continuous random variables:

• Waiting time for your bus to come,


• Life time of electronic products,
• A randomly selected FPT student's height/weight/temperature,
• Throwing a dart toward a board. Let X be the distance to the center, and Y
the angle relative to the positive x-axis.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Examples of Continuous Random Variables

Example: Below are some examples of continuous random variables:

• Waiting time for your bus to come,


• Life time of electronic products,
• A randomly selected FPT student's height/weight/temperature,
• Throwing a dart toward a board. Let X be the distance to the center, and Y
the angle relative to the positive x-axis.

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 6 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Examples of Continuous Random Variables

Example: Below are some examples of continuous random variables:

• Waiting time for your bus to come,


• Life time of electronic products,
• A randomly selected FPT student's height/weight/temperature,
• Throwing a dart toward a board. Let X be the distance to the center, and Y
the angle relative to the positive x-axis.

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 6 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Examples of Continuous Random Variables

Example: Below are some examples of continuous random variables:

• Waiting time for your bus to come,


• Life time of electronic products,
• A randomly selected FPT student's height/weight/temperature,
• Throwing a dart toward a board. Let X be the distance to the center, and Y
the angle relative to the positive x-axis.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Probability mass function (h m khèi x¡c su§t)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range {x1 , x2 , . . .}. The probability
mass function (pmf) of X, denoted fX : R → R, is defined as
(
P (X = xi ) if x = xi , for i = 1, 2, . . .
fX (x) =
0 for all other x

A pmf fX (x) for a discrete random variable X satisfies the following:


• 0 ≤ fX (x) ≤ 1, for all possible values of x.
• The total sum is 1: i fX (xi ) = 1.
P

Example: Let X be the numerical outcome of a single toss of a fair coin (0 for tails
and 1 for heads). Then its pmf is

 2 if x = 0
 1

fX (x) = 21 if x = 1
0 for all other x .


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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Probability mass function (h m khèi x¡c su§t)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range {x1 , x2 , . . .}. The probability
mass function (pmf) of X, denoted fX : R → R, is defined as
(
P (X = xi ) if x = xi , for i = 1, 2, . . .
fX (x) =
0 for all other x

A pmf fX (x) for a discrete random variable X satisfies the following:


• 0 ≤ fX (x) ≤ 1, for all possible values of x.
• The total sum is 1: i fX (xi ) = 1.
P

Example: Let X be the numerical outcome of a single toss of a fair coin (0 for tails
and 1 for heads). Then its pmf is

 2 if x = 0
 1

fX (x) = 21 if x = 1
0 for all other x .


Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 7 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Probability mass function (h m khèi x¡c su§t)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range {x1 , x2 , . . .}. The probability
mass function (pmf) of X, denoted fX : R → R, is defined as
(
P (X = xi ) if x = xi , for i = 1, 2, . . .
fX (x) =
0 for all other x

A pmf fX (x) for a discrete random variable X satisfies the following:


• 0 ≤ fX (x) ≤ 1, for all possible values of x.
• The total sum is 1: i fX (xi ) = 1.
P

Example: Let X be the numerical outcome of a single toss of a fair coin (0 for tails
and 1 for heads). Then its pmf is

 2 if x = 0
 1

fX (x) = 21 if x = 1
0 for all other x .


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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Displaying pmf

We may display the distribution of a discrete random variable using a table.

x x1 x2 ···
P (X = x) p1 p2 ···

Notation: pi = fX (xi ) for all i.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Find the pmf of X in each question below and display it by table.


Example (Roll a fair die once). Let X be the number obtained.
The pmf is: (
1
6 if x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
fX (x) =
0 for all other x.
The probability distribution table is:

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
P (X = x) 6 6 6 6 6 6

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Find the pmf of X in each question below and display it by table.


Example (Roll a fair die once). Let X be the number obtained.
The pmf is: (
1
6 if x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
fX (x) =
0 for all other x.
The probability distribution table is:

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1
P (X = x) 6 6 6 6 6 6

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 9 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Cumulative distribution function (h m ph¥n phèi t½ch lôy)

A different way of characterizing the distribution of a random variable is through


specifying all the cumulative probabilities.
Definition
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a discrete random variable X,
denoted as FX (x), is
X
FX (x) = P (X ≤ x) = fX (xi ).
xi ≤x

For a discrete random variable X , FX (x) satisfies the following properties:


• 0 ≤ F (x) ≤ 1 • lim FX (x) = FX (a)
x→−a+
• lim FX (x) = 0
x→−∞
• P (a ≤ X < b) = FX (b) − FX (a)
• lim FX (x) = 1
x→+∞
• If x ≤ y , then F (x) ≤ F (y).
Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 10 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Cumulative distribution function (h m ph¥n phèi t½ch lôy)

A different way of characterizing the distribution of a random variable is through


specifying all the cumulative probabilities.
Definition
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a discrete random variable X,
denoted as FX (x), is
X
FX (x) = P (X ≤ x) = fX (xi ).
xi ≤x

For a discrete random variable X , FX (x) satisfies the following properties:


• 0 ≤ F (x) ≤ 1 • lim FX (x) = FX (a)
x→−a+
• lim FX (x) = 0
x→−∞
• P (a ≤ X < b) = FX (b) − FX (a)
• lim FX (x) = 1
x→+∞
• If x ≤ y , then F (x) ≤ F (y).
Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 10 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

The cdf can be displayed as a table or graph.

x x1 x2 ···
P (X ≤ x) p1 p1 + p2 ···

Remark: The probability distribution function FX (x) represents the concentration


level of the probability to the left of the point x.
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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Example: Assume that X has the pmf Its cdf given by


given by
if

0 x<0
if x = 0
1 

4
 1

if 0≤x<1
1 if x = 1

FX (x) = 4
2
fX (x) = 3
if 1≤x<2
 14 if x = 2

4


1 if x ≥ 2.


0 otherwise

Then pmf of X is given in Figure a. Thus, the graph of the cdf of X is as


shown in Figure b.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expected value of a random variable (ký vång hay trung b¼nh)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .} (finite or
countably infinite). The expected value of X is defined as
X X
µ = E(X) = xi P (X = xi ) = xi fX (xi ).
xi ∈RX xi ∈RX

Note: E(X) represents the mean value of X over a large number of repetitions of
the experiment.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the expected value of the number of messages received per hour.

E(X) = 10 · 0.08 + 11 · 0.15 + · · · + 15 · 0.07 = 12.5

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the expected value of the number of messages received per hour.

E(X) = 10 · 0.08 + 11 · 0.15 + · · · + 15 · 0.07 = 12.5

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expected value of functions of X

Theorem
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .}. Let h be
a real-valued function defined on the range of X . The expected value of h(X) is
defined as
X X
E(h(X)) = h(xi )P (X = xi ) = h(xi )fX (xi ).
xi ∈RX xi ∈RX

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the expected value of the square of the number of messages received per
hour.
  6
X
E X2 = x2i fX (xi )
i=1
= 10 · 0.08 + 112 · 0.15 + 122 · 0.30 + 132 · 0.20 + 142 · 0.20 + 152 · 0.07
2

= 158.1.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the expected value of the square of the number of messages received per
hour.
  6
X
E X2 = x2i fX (xi )
i=1
= 10 · 0.08 + 112 · 0.15 + 122 · 0.30 + 132 · 0.20 + 142 · 0.20 + 152 · 0.07
2

= 158.1.

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 16 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = 0, π4 , π2 , 3π 4 ,π ,



Example:

4 ) = fX (π) = 5 . Find E (sin(X)).


such that fX (0) = fX ( π4 ) = fX ( π2 ) = fX ( 3π 1

Answer. We have
X
E (sin(X)) = sin(xi )fX (xi )
xi ∈RX
1 π 1 π 1 3π 1 1
= sin(0) · + sin( ) · + sin( ) · + sin( ) · + sin(π) ·
√ 5 4 5 2 5 4 5 5
2+1
= .
5

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = 0, π4 , π2 , 3π 4 ,π ,



Example:

4 ) = fX (π) = 5 . Find E (sin(X)).


such that fX (0) = fX ( π4 ) = fX ( π2 ) = fX ( 3π 1

Answer. We have
X
E (sin(X)) = sin(xi )fX (xi )
xi ∈RX
1 π 1 π 1 3π 1 1
= sin(0) · + sin( ) · + sin( ) · + sin( ) · + sin(π) ·
√ 5 4 5 2 5 4 5 5
2+1
= .
5

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Properties of expectation

Theorem
Let X be a discrete random variable with pmf fX (x). Suppose that h1 , h2 , . . . , hk
are real-valued functions, and let c be a real constant. The expectation of X
satisfies the following properties:
1 E(c) = c
2 E(c · X) = c · E(X)
P  P
k k
3 E i=1 hi (X) = i=1 E (hi (X)).

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 18 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Remark: There are few equations which you might think are true, but they do not
hold true in general:

• E(|X|) 6= |E(X)|

• E(X 2 ) 6= E(X)2

• E X1 1

6= E(X)

• E eX =

6 eE(X)
• E(XY ) 6= E(X)E(Y ) unless X, Y are independent
 E(X)
• E X
Y 6= E(Y )

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Variation of a random variable (ph÷ìng sai cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .}. The
variance of X is defined as
h i
2
σ 2 = Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) .

Note:

• The variance is the average squared distance from the mean µ.


• The variance of a random variable X is a measure of dispersion or scatter in
the possible values for X .
• The larger (smaller) σ 2 is, the more (less) spread in the possible values of X
about the population mean E(X).
• Computing formula:
h i
2 2
Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) = E X 2 − [E(X)] .
 

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 20 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Variation of a random variable (ph÷ìng sai cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .}. The
variance of X is defined as
h i
2
σ 2 = Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) .

Note:

• The variance is the average squared distance from the mean µ.


• The variance of a random variable X is a measure of dispersion or scatter in
the possible values for X .
• The larger (smaller) σ 2 is, the more (less) spread in the possible values of X
about the population mean E(X).
• Computing formula:
h i
2 2
Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) = E X 2 − [E(X)] .
 

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 20 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Variation of a random variable (ph÷ìng sai cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .}. The
variance of X is defined as
h i
2
σ 2 = Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) .

Note:

• The variance is the average squared distance from the mean µ.


• The variance of a random variable X is a measure of dispersion or scatter in
the possible values for X .
• The larger (smaller) σ 2 is, the more (less) spread in the possible values of X
about the population mean E(X).
• Computing formula:
h i
2 2
Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) = E X 2 − [E(X)] .
 

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 20 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Variation of a random variable (ph÷ìng sai cõa bi¸n ng¨u nhi¶n)

Definition
Let X be a discrete random variable with range RX = {x1 , x2 , x3 , . . .}. The
variance of X is defined as
h i
2
σ 2 = Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) .

Note:

• The variance is the average squared distance from the mean µ.


• The variance of a random variable X is a measure of dispersion or scatter in
the possible values for X .
• The larger (smaller) σ 2 is, the more (less) spread in the possible values of X
about the population mean E(X).
• Computing formula:
h i
2 2
Var(X) = E (X − E(X)) = E X 2 − [E(X)] .
 

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 20 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Applications and Properties of variance

Ùng döng: Trong cæng nghi»p, ph÷ìng sai biºu thà ë ch½nh x¡c cõa s£n xu§t. Trong
ch«n nuæi, nâ biºu thà ë çng ·u cõa c¡c con gia sóc. Trong trçng tråt, nâ biºu
thà mùc ë ên ành cõa n«ng su§t, ...

Theorem
Suppose X and Y are random variable with finite variance. Let c be a constant.
• Var(c) = 0
• Var(cX) = c2 Var(X)
• Suppose X and Y are independent, then

Var(X + Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ).

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 21 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Remark: In general,

• Var(|X|) 6= |Var(X)|

• Var(X 2 ) 6= Var(X)2

• Var X1 1

6= Var(X)

• Var eX =

6 eVar(X)
• Var(XY ) 6= Var(X)Var(Y )

6= Var(Y ) .
 Var(X)
• Var X
Y

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Definition
The standard deviation of X is the positive square root of the variance:
√ p
σ= σ2 = Var(X).

Note: We see that the unit of the measure of variance is equals to the square of the
unit of measure of the random variable. So when we need to evaluate the dispersion
of a random variable in its units, we often use the standard deviation instead of the
variance.

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Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the variance and the standard deviation of the number of messages
received per hour.
Answer. We have

• Var(X) = E X 2 − [E(X)]2 = 158.1 − 12.52 = 1.85.


 

• σ = Var(X) = 1.85 = 1.36.
p

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 24 / 25
Random variable Probability mass function Cumulative distribution function Expectation Variance

Expectation

Example: The number of email messages received per hour has the following dis-
tribution:

x = number of messages 10 11 12 13 14 15
fX (x) 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.07

Determine the variance and the standard deviation of the number of messages
received per hour.
Answer. We have

• Var(X) = E X 2 − [E(X)]2 = 158.1 − 12.52 = 1.85.


 

• σ = Var(X) = 1.85 = 1.36.
p

Dr. Cao Van Kien Discrete R.V. and Probability Distributions January 8, 2021 24 / 25
Thank you very much for your attention!

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