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SOAL 4
b α = 0.6
Months Sales Forecast α=0.6
January $ 3,000 $ 3,200
February $ 3,400 $ 3,080
March $ 3,700 $ 3,272
April $ 4,100 $ 3,529
May $ 4,700 $ 3,872
June $ 5,700 $ 4,369
July $ 6,300 $ 5,167
August $ 7,200 $ 5,847
September $ 6,400 $ 6,659
October $ 4,600 $ 6,504
November $ 4,200 $ 5,361
December $ 3,900 $ 4,665
Saya menyarankan untuk menggunakan metode rata-rata 3 bulan, karena menunujukan rata-rate lebih tinggi yaitu $1,517
d Three Month Moving Average α = 0.6
Months Sales Forecast Error MAD MAPE Months Sales Forecast α=0.6 Error MAD MAPE
January $ 3,000 $ 4,363 $(1,363) $ 1,363 45.42% January $ 3,000 $ 3,200 $ (200) $ 200 6.25%
February $ 3,400 $ 3,938 $ (538) $ 538 15.81% February $ 3,400 $ 3,080 $ 320 $ 320 10.39%
March $ 3,700 $ 3,500 $ 200 $ 200 5.41% March $ 3,700 $ 3,272 $ 428 $ 428 13.08%
April $ 4,100 $ 3,238 $ 863 $ 863 21.04% April $ 4,100 $ 3,529 $ 571 $ 571 16.19%
May $ 4,700 $ 3,600 $ 1,100 $ 1,100 23.40% May $ 4,700 $ 3,872 $ 828 $ 828 21.40%
June $ 5,700 $ 3,975 $ 1,725 $ 1,725 30.26% June $ 5,700 $ 4,369 $ 1,331 $ 1,331 30.48%
July $ 6,300 $ 4,525 $ 1,775 $ 1,775 28.17% July $ 6,300 $ 5,167 $ 1,133 $ 1,133 21.92%
August $ 7,200 $ 5,275 $ 1,925 $ 1,925 26.74% August $ 7,200 $ 5,847 $ 1,353 $ 1,353 23.14%
September $ 6,400 $ 6,113 $ 288 $ 288 4.49% September $ 6,400 $ 6,659 $ (259) $ 259 3.89%
October $ 4,600 $ 6,650 $(2,050) $ 2,050 44.57% October $ 4,600 $ 6,504 $(1,904) $ 1,904 29.27%
November $ 4,200 $ 6,575 $(2,375) $ 2,375 56.55% November $ 4,200 $ 5,361 $(1,161) $ 1,161 21.66%
December $ 3,900 $ 5,450 $(1,550) $ 1,550 39.74% December $ 3,900 $ 4,665 $ (765) $ 765 16.39%
Saya menyarankan untuk menggunakan metode rata-rata 3 bulan, karena menunujukan rata-rate lebih tinggi yaitu 30.55%