Technology Futures Analysis and Porter's Generic Strategies

Technology Futures
Analysis &
Generic
Strategies
Jairus Kent Vital

TM 281
Technology Management Center, UP Diliman
November 28, 2020

Agenda
01 02
TECHNOLOGY FUTURE ANALYSIS
FUTURES ANALYSIS METHODS
03 04
METHOD SELECTION, PORTER’S GENERIC
QUALITY & PRACTICE STRATEGIES
TECHNOLOGY
FUTURES
ANALYSIS
A systematic framework of processes and

methods used for technological
advancement 01
Why Anticipate the Future?
● Rapid technological innovation is driving the industries to be evolutionary and adaptive
● The rise of new technologies displacing old & traditional technologies, the onset of Schumpeter’s
Creative Destruction, has shaped the progress of the global economy
● The shift into the Fourth Industrial Revolution sets the trigger of the information age and race for the
study of the future (i.e. displacement of CD-R King by e-commerce is the prime example of
Schumpeter’s gale in the present time)
(TFAWMG, 2003; Cana, 2020)

Why Anticipate the Future?
● For big companies to prioritize R&D, plan for new product development, and to make strategic
decisions for technology acquisitions
● For small companies to form competitive technological intelligence through measuring adoption and
diffusion rates of innovation
● For the government to analyze the societal impact of technological change and its long-term impact
● For the industry as an awareness-raising tool for spotting emerging opportunities
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

Technology Futures Analysis
Converting
information to Relating Implementing
something useful forecasts to plans strategy
Intelligence Roadmapping Foresight
Monitoring Forecasting Assessment

Gathering and Anticipating Anticipating all
interpreting technological effects of
information change technological
change (Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)
Difference between
Technology... The future is encompassing
and is clouded by uncertainty
Linear future > 5 years and shaped by reciprocal
< 5 years influences
Backed by expert and

FOREC
Backed by historical
top management
AST
data (quantitative)
decisions (qualitative)
FORES
Result-oriented
Networking and
IGHT
and can be done
individually knowledge sharing
Usually predicts Predicts many

one future, given possible futures,
Ends with selecting a future
the present data based on existing
Ends with scenario to serve as a present
and upcoming
identifying futures decision-making insight
factors
(Cuhls, 2003)
Technology Forecast
“Purposeful and systematic attempt to anticipate and understand technological change”
● Can be approached as projective or exploratory: given the present and

historical data, it is possible to predict how a certain technology and its
attributes can grow or even decline in the future
● It enables plans and strategies that will maximize gains and minimize
loss in the future by identifying technologies with great future
potential
● Forecast quality depends on the availability of information; thankfully
we live in the information era where tremendous amount of data is
accessible
● Elements of Forecasts:
○ Time of Forecast
○ Technology to be Forecasted
○ Statement of Characteristics of Technology
○ Statement of Probability of the Characteristics
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Mishra, Deshmukh & Vrat, 2001; Cuhls, 2003)
Technology Forecast
● Lessons when conducting Technology Forecasting (based on early forecast studies conducted)
○ Avoid over optimism when forecasting timing of market success for new technologies
○ Practicality of new technologies works in different and often unforeseen ways
○ Minimize attempts to predict the social implications of new technologies
○ Include logical, economic, and historical analysis for each innovation
○ Careful and studied approach can yield good insights for accurate forecast
● Limitations of Technology Forecasting
○ Limitations of Quantitative Techniques (i.e. lack of data)
○ Limitations of Qualitative Techniques (i.e. human bias, lack of experts)
○ Limitations of Forecast translated to Implementation (i.e. lack of commitment, external factors,
complexity of technology)
○ Problem in Selection of Techniques (i.e. lack of techniques for selecting proper tool)
(Mishra, Deshmukh & Vrat, 2001)

Technology Foresight
“Systematic and participatory process that involves gathering technological intelligence and
building nationwide visions for the medium-to-long term future, aimed at informing
present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions”
● Can be approached as normative: we create future possibilities and assess

their impact/s in the present time so that it will serve as a guide to achieve
an ideological future
● It allows nations and organizations to adapt with the evolving technology
environment and sustain their competitiveness
● Approaches to Foresight:
○ Future Studies = reports, scenarios, and statements provide insights
for the future studies
○ Networking = by utilizing technology network among experts and
employing surveys, we anticipate the future
○ Planning = foresight can be achieved through systematic and
strategic planning
(Lee, 2015)
Foresight Process
(Popper, 2008)
Foresight Process
● Pre-foresight / Scoping
○ Strategic and early process decisions related to overall aspirations
● Recruitment
○ Enrolling of experts in the foresight process
● Generation
○ Heart of the process
○ Generation of knowledge and shared visions
○ Activities:
■ Exploration = using methods like brainstorming to identify issues and trends
■ Analysis = using methods like expert panels, extrapolation, and SWOT to understand
how issues and trends influence one another
■ Anticipation = using methods like scenarios and Delphi to anticipate possible futures
● Action
○ Shaping the future through strategic planning
○ Getting commitment from stakeholders in implementing generated decisions
○ Roadmapping and Morphological analysis can bridge foresight and strategic planning
● Renewal
○ Gaining and understanding of knowledge in generated outputs
○ Evaluate outputs through traditional social research methods like interview and surveys
(Popper, 2008)
Elements of the Foresight Process
● Geo-R&D Context ● Target Groups
○ Clustering countries based on GERD ○ Type of stakeholders/experts
(gross expenditure on R&D) ○ Government Agency, Research
● Domain Coverage Community, Firms, Trade Bodies,
○ Industry area of study NGOs, Intermediary Organizations,
● Territorial Scale Trade Unions
○ Geographical scope of study ● Participation Scale
● Time Horizon ○ Level of openness of the study
○ Time scale of study
● Sponsorship ● Codified Outputs
○ Type of actors funding and supporting ○ Production of policy recommendations,
the foresight trends analysis, scenarios, research, list
○ Usually government, NGOs, research of technologies, forecasts, and
agencies, and business sector roadmaps
● Methods Mix
○ Combination of foresight methods
(Popper, 2008)
FUTURE
ANALYSIS
METHODS
02
Classifying the Methods
QUALITATIVE
EXPERT OPINION
TREND ANALYSIS
MONITORING/INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE
STATISTICAL FAMILY NATURE E
MODELS & SIMULATIONS SEMI-QUALITATIV
SCENARIOS
VALUE/DECISION/ECONOMIC
DESCRIPTIVE & MATRIX
CREATIVE EVIDENCE
MAJOR
CLASSIFICATIONS
CAPABILITY CREATIVITY
EXPERTISE
PROJECTIVE
INTERACTION
APPROACH
NORMATIVE
(TFAMWG, 2003; Popper, 2008)
Classifying by:
Approaches
● Projective / Exploratory
○ Starting from the present, advancing step-by-step toward the future based on historical data
and current trends
○ What are the trends? What may affect the trends? What are the probable futures? What will
happen if this trend develops?
● Normative
○ Inventing a desirable future by identifying technological means
○ What are the desirable futures? Can we find a path to get to those? What do we do now to
make the future happen?
(TFAMWG, 2003)
Classifying by:
Nature
● Qualitative
○ Provides subjective meaning to events and perceptions through opinions, judgments, beliefs,
and attitudes
○ Methods include backcasting, brainstorming, citizens’ panels, environmental scanning, essays,
expert panels, futures workshops, gaming, interviews, literature review, morphological
analysis, questionnaires and surveys, relevance trees, scenarios, and SWOT analysis
● Quantitative
○ Measures variables and apply statistical analyses to generate data
○ Methods include bibliometrics, modelling and simulation, and extrapolation
● Semi-quantitative
○ Application of mathematical principles to quantify subjective expert judgments by weighting
opinions and probabilities
○ Methods include cross-impact and structural analysis, Delphi, key technologies, multi-criteria
analysis, stakeholder mapping, roadmapping
(Popper, 2008)
Classifying by:
Capability
The ability of a method to gather information
● Evidence
○ Forecast must be supported with documentation and measurable
statistical analysis
● Expertise
○ Skills and knowledge of individual used to support and advise
top-down decisions
○ Methods rely on tacit knowledge and experience
○ Allows more holistic and comprehensive understanding of foresight
● Interaction
○ Articulation of expert advice
○ In a democractic society, legitimacy is gained from bottom-up
● Creativity
○ Original and imaginative thinking provided by gurus in brainstorming
sessions
○ Methods rely on inventive and ingenious gurus
(Popper, 2008)
Classifying by:
Family

Expert Opinion
● Intensive consultation with technical experts
● Relatively informal technique that can assist in identifying problems, priority areas, and investment
recommendations
● Eliminate bias by getting a group of experts (usually around 12 to 20) and conducting one-by-one
sessions
● Methods include focus groups, interviews, and participatory techniques
● Advantages
○ Fast feedback
○ Wide perspective
○ Convergent and divergent thinking
○ Good for evidence building
○ Improves output quality
● Disadvantages
○ Based on traditional and own perspective
○ Experts may miss updated knowledge
○ Can be costly and time-consuming versus other methods
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Popper, 2008; Freeman et al., 2013)
Expert Opinion
● How to identify experts?
○ Experienced professional consultant ○ Referrals from fellow experts
○ Academe / professor / researcher ○ Online database
○ Industry expert ○ Conference speakers
○ CEOs and entrepreneurs ○ Number of patents, publications, and awards
○ Government consultants ○ Hedonic self-rating expertise scale
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Popper, 2008; Freeman et al., 2013; Murphy, Meehan, & Bogue., 2003)
Expert Opinion
● KEY TECHNOLOGIES is a method wherein experts layout a curated list of emerging technologies
necessary for future interventions, that shall serve as insights for stakeholders for investment and
strategic objective decision-making
○ Example: Chief Technology Officer Chalmers Brown has identified 4 key technologies that
startups should invest on to increase work efficiency, reduce costs, stay organized, and
increase the bottom-line.
■ Customer Relationship Management Software
■ Business Intelligence and Analytics Tools
■ Employee Collaboration Tools
■ Payments Platform
(Freeman et al., 2013; Brown, 2017)

Expert Opinion
● DELPHI METHOD is the repeated but structured polling of a questionnaire to the same anonymised
group of experts until a unified judgment is derived
○ It increases the chance of realizing a proposed technology by a unified expert decision
○ Most useful when there is no true or knowable answer like decision and policy-making, and
long-range forecasting
○ Advantages:
■ Anonymity reduces bias
■ Structured responses are weighted equally
■ Controlled feedback reduces statistical noise and allow reconsideration
○ Disadvantages:
■ Lack of clear methodology
■ Does not allow discussion to elaborate views
Expert Opinion
● DELPHI METHOD
○ Steps:
■ Survey development containing assumptions and key questions
■ Recruitment and survey of experts
■ Collate feedback and summarize results
■ Delphi Round: share response summary to experts
■ Repeat as necessary until a consensus is agreed upon by the experts
Expert Opinion
● DELPHI METHOD
○ Example: Ten Year Delphi Forecast of Irish Specialty Foods (2000-2010)
■ 27 food industry experts (academe, farmer, manufacturers, retailers) were asked “What will be the sales
forecast of Irish Specialty Foods in 2005 & 2010?”
■ Questionnaires were sent via mail and summarized by the researchers
■ Every round the researchers sent the the expert’s forecast and the median forecast of all experts and ask
if they agree with the consensus
■ The decreasing standard deviation (SD) can trigger that the consensus has been reached and end the
Delphi round
■ The consensus among the experts was that in the year 2005 the forecast sales will be 140 billion Euros
and 165 billion Euros in the year 2010
(Murphy, Meehan, & Bogue., 2003)

Statistical Methods
● Methods include demographics, cross-impact analysis, and risk analysis
● CORRELATION ANALYSIS forecasts the patterns of new technology development that are similar
with existing technology
● BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS is the statistical analysis of text documents, publications, and patents
○ Goes beyond expert bias, allowing the discovery of new facts and patterns
○ Although, not all R&D activities are published or patented
○ Convention of the modernity (information era) has allowed the progress of data mining, a major
aspect in bibliometric analysis
○ Ideal for S&T intensive industries due to dependence with patents and publications

Trend Analysis
● Prediction based on quantitative historical data
● Provide a rough idea of how past and present developments may look like in the future assuming that
the future is the continuation of the past
● Longest established tool for forecasting which encompasses economic forecasting models
● Methods include trend impact analysis, precursor analysis, and long wave analysis
● GROWTH CURVE FITTING is the estimation of technology’s lifecycle
○ Helpful in estimating the upper limit of technology growth at each stage and predicting when
will technology reach particular stage
○ FISHER-PRY ANALYSIS is a type of growth curve fitting method that uses mathematical
techniques to project the rate of market adoption of superior new technologies assuming from
the old technology displaced
■ Based on the fact that technology adoption follows a logistic curve (S-curve) with time
and rate of adoption as variables
■ Variables can be determined from data of early adopters and then project the time at
which market takeover will be reached
■ Used to forecast how installed base of telecoms will change over time, adoption rate of
new chemical production process, and displacement rate of digital measuring devices
over analog devices in petroleum refineries
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Popper, 2008)
Trend Analysis
● FISHER-PRY ANALYSIS
○ Advantages
■ Projects the rate of market adoption of new superior technology
■ Projects the loss of market adoption of old displaced technology
■ Can use at least four data points
■ Simple and easy to use
○ Disadvantage
■ Cannot predict two or more emerging technologies
■ Difficult to predict short periods forecasts
(Lokuhitige & Brown, 2017)

Trend Analysis
● FISHER-PRY ANALYSIS
○ Example: A 2017 study on the
Fisher-Pry forecast of IoT
technology based on bibliometric
analysis of IoT publications in top 5
countries
■ The study forecasts that IoT
technology penetration in
top 5 countries will reach
100% at year 2022 (with the
US and China on the lead due
to earlier penetration by
2020)
(Lokuhitige & Brown, 2017)

Monitoring and
Intelligence Methods
● Finding early indications of possibly important future technology and gain as much lead time as
possible
● ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING and TECHNOLOGY WATCH are common methods
○ Observation, examination, monitoring, and systematic description of PESTLE factors in context
of the country, the industry, or the organization
○ Provides awareness of external environment changes
○ Provides general input for future research and areas for improvement
○ Also known as competitive intelligence in private firms
○ Example: AirBnB used this method in exacting their standard fares to compete against major
hotel brands and chains
● LITERATURE REVIEW is the scanning and comprehension of literature studies and publications then
compare views and visions among various authors

Modeling and Simulation
● A model is a simplified representation of some part of the real world
● Methods include cross-impact analysis, sustainability analysis, causal models, diffusion modeling,
complex adaptive system modeling, technological substitution, economic base modeling, and
technological assessment
● AGENT MODELING involves the creation of computer generated “agents” that interact with one
another according to set behavior rules
○ This best describes how infection spreads in a population
○ Can also be used on how idea, belief, market fad, or behavioral pattern behaves in society
○ Also used to simulate sustainable energy like clean coal, tidal power, and photovoltaics
● SYSTEMS SIMULATION allow users to search for best approach to an opportunity without costly
risks
○ Allows test simulation of multiple agents or variables
● All models and simulations depend on data quality and realistic variable relationships, which remains a
challenge on implementing them to the real physical world
● To be realistic, it must allow branching decisions allowing all possible alternatives

● Example: Forecast analysis of outsourcing through simulation modelling
○ A Danish company wants to know the long-term effect of outsourcing vs internal production
○ Through simulation modelling (using ProModel software), they were able to plot possible future scenarios in terms
of profit projection
○ They used scenario case, literature, historical data, and global economic trends as basis
○ The company ended up with proceeding with 65% internal and 35% internal production
PROFIT
Profit projection of combined
(Euros)
Communication outsourcing and internal
simulation
Profit projection of
100% internal
Data input
(i.e. cost, YEAR
scenario, etc) (10 yr increment)
Profit projection of 100% outsourcing
ProModel User Interface (Hansen, Rasmussen & Jacobsen, 2016)
● CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS determine how each future event/scenario would interact with each other
○ Assumes that each variable/scenario are interdependent and affect each other resulting in new
scenarios
○ This is used to assist scenario development and link to roadmapping
○ It forces attention to experts and estimates the interdependency of future issues
○ Data collection may pose a problem
(Pravinkumar et al., 2018)

● CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
○ Example: Cross-impact analysis on the Future of the Chemical Industry in Year 2000
■ Five scenarios and their probability were identified by experts through Delphi method and SWOT
analysis
■ The probability of each event are then assessed if one of the event were to be realized with the
question “What will be the likelihood of event X if event Y will happen in year 2000?”
■ For example, if event 2 (increase in government intervention in innovation) were to happen, then
event 5 (declining returns on conventional research) will decrease in probability from 20% to 15%
Initial
EVENTS PROBABILITIES Probability Event 1 Event 2 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5
(1) Use of plastics expand six-fold in 1985
(2) Increased government intervention in innovation Event 1 15% 100% 30% 25% 10% 15%
(3) Computational chemistry Event 2 20% 10% 100% 35% 7% 40%
(4) Chemical industry expands into textiles Event 3 25% 15% 20% 100% 15% 5%
(5) Declining returns on conventional research Event 4 10% 15% 25% 25% 100% 15%
Event 5 20% 25% 15% 50% 20% 100%
(Pravinkumar et al., 2018)

Scenarios
● Conception of different possible futures based on well-defined set of assumptions
● Refer to previous reports for examples and clarifications :)

Value / Decision /
Economic Methods
● Methods include action analysis, cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and economic base
modeling
● RELEVANCE TREE APPROACH subdivides a broad topic into branching smaller subtopics
○ A normative approach in which a topic is approached in a hierarchical manner
○ Goals and objectives of proposed technology are broken down into lower levels, like a tree,
showing their important connections
○ Probabilities of each goal are then estimated
○ Each probability are used to forecast the likelihood of achieving goals and objectives of
proposed technology
○ This is used to analyze complex problems down to its root cause, deduce potential solutions,
and estimate an R&D program
○ Downside of this method is that it is based on human judgment erring bias and weakens the
method if insights are not purposeful
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Lincoln Interactive, 2008)

Value / Decision /
Economic Methods
● RELEVANCE TREE APPROACH
○ Example: Relevance Tree of Renewable Energy
(Lincoln Interactive, 2008)

Descriptive and
Matrices Methods
● Methods include backcasting, checklist for impact identification, innovation system modeling,
institutional analysis, mitigation analysis, social impact assessment, multiple perspectives
assessment, organizational analysis, and requirements analysis
● ROADMAPPING is a growing activity in this category wherein major technological steps are
projected together with strategies to reach milestone
○ Refer to previous report for examples and clarifications :)

Descriptive and
Matrices Methods
● ANALOGIES is an another popular descriptive method wherein it involves a systematic comparison of
technology with earlier similar form of technology
○ The new technology must have an initial established data that exhibits similar growth patterns
with an identical technology
○ This is based on assumption that people in the future will react on the new technology just like
how they reacted with the identical mature technology
○ Analogies forecast are mostly probable but never certain since they also rely on expert panel
and personal assumptions
○ Steps:
■ Describe the situation
■ Select experts
■ Identify and describe analogies
■ Rate similarity
■ Derive forecasts
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Jun, Sun & Park, 2017)
Descriptive and
Matrices Methods
● ANALOGIES
○ Example: Analogous forecast for hybrid car attribution in Korea based on US hybrid car
adoption growth model
■ The analogy is supported by comparison of US & Korean web search propensity (1),
income (2) and patent intensity (3)
■ Analogous growth curves of US and Korea are “statistically fit” and comparable
(Jun, Sun & Park, 2017)

Descriptive and
Matrices Methods
● ANALOGIES
○ Example: Analogous forecast for hybrid car attribution in Korea based on US hybrid car adoption growth model
■ Based on the analogies formed, they extrapolated the US growth as applied in Korean hybrid car forecast
■ The left figure shows the US market share of hybrid cars from July 2013 to Jan 2016
■ The right figure shows the forecast extrapolation of expected hybrid car market share in Korean market
from Jan 2016 to May 2018
(Jun, Sun & Park, 2017)

Creativity
● Methods include creativity workshops, TRIZ, vision generation, and science fiction analysis
● BRAINSTORMING is an interactive method used in group sessions to generate new ideas around a
specific subject

METHOD SELECTION,
EVALUATION &
PRACTICE
03
Choosing a Forecasting Method
● Method needs to be time, space, and technology specific
● It is better to use several methods simultaneously since each
method can only deal with limited aspects of forecasting
● Levary and Han considered 3 Basic Factors:
■ Extent of Available Data
■ Degree of Data Validity
■ Degree of Similarity with Proposed and Existing
Technology (Time Horizon)
○ Each factor are categorized as small, medium, and large
○ If there is small/medium amount of data & no similar
technology, Delphi method is the best choice
○ If there is medium/large amount of data & high level of
similar technology, correlation analysis is the best choice
○ If there is medium/large amount of data & timeline of
study is long, trend analysis is the best choice
(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Lincoln, 2008)

Choosing a Forecasting Method
● Comprehensive Procedure:
○ Identify the characteristics of technology (like rate of change, ease of diffusion, number of
alternatives, etc) and assign weights for each (to reduce variance among expert ratings)
○ Using a 10-point scale, technology experts will rate each characteristics
○ Using the same scale, forecast methods experts will suggest an applicable method and rate
each of it based on the technology characteristics
○ Superimpose the technology characteristics and forecast method with the best fit (forecast
method that closely matches the technology characteristic ideally by getting statistical error)
● Advantages of using this method:
○ Address a large number of characteristics affecting technology
○ Match forecast techniques with characteristics
○ Enables comparison of many forecast techniques to arrive at most suitable one
○ Minimize subjectivity in forecast technique selection through structured and statistical
approach
○ Simple to contemplate and execute

Example: Forecast Method for E-Commerce
E-commerce Technology Characteristics Score
Characteristics Weight Average Score Combined Weight
(Weight x Score)
Incremental Innovation 10 6 60
Radical Innovation 10 6 60
Technology Option Range 5 7 35
Modular Structure 5 7 35
Contemporary Developments 5 6 30
Rate of Change 8 8 64
Life Cycle 8 8 64
Adhere to Technology Trend 8 7 56
Time Horizon 5 8 40
Reliability 6 8 48
Accuracy of Occurrence 5 7 35
Consistency of Data 10 8 80
Flexibility to Change 10 9 90
Confidence of Occurrence 8 7 56
Ease of Implementation 10 9 90
Ease of Exploitation 5 8 40
Post development analysis 5 8 40
Feedback and Control 10 8 80
Impact on Environment 5 7 35
Cost Effective 8 7 56
Ease of Diffusion 10 7 70
Measurement of Performance 5 7 35
n = 25 internet experts with 10-25 years experience
Forecast Method Scores
Average Weighted Score
Characteristics Weight
Delphi Normative Quantitative
Incremental Innovation 10 80 100 100
Radical Innovation 10 100 80 40
Technology Option Range 5 50 15 5
Modular Structure 5 25 40 5
Contemporary Developments 5 50 20 5
Rate of Change 8 64 48 24
Life Cycle 8 64 32 40
Adhere to Technology Trend 8 40 16 80
Time Horizon 5 50 25 50
Reliability 6 42 42 54
Accuracy of Occurrence 5 40 30 45
Consistency of Data 10 50 70 60
Flexibility to Change 10 100 100 10
Confidence of Occurrence 8 56 56 72
Ease of Implementation 10 80 90 20
Ease of Exploitation 5 40 25 10
Post development analysis 5 25 40 20
Feedback and Control 10 50 50 10
Impact on Environment 5 20 50 5
Cost Effective 8 80 40 32
Ease of Diffusion 10 50 40 10
Measurement of Performance 5 40 25 30
n = 3 forecast method experts
Square Error
Square Error
Characteristics Weight (Ecommerce Scores - Forecast Scores)^2
Incremental Innovation 10 400 1600 1600
Radical Innovation 10 1600 400 400
Technology Option Range 5 225 400 900
Modular Structure 5 100 25 900
Contemporary Developments 5 400 100 900
Rate of Change 8 0 256 625
Life Cycle 8 0 1024 1600
Adhere to Technology Trend 8 256 1600 576
Time Horizon 5 100 225 576
Reliability 6 36 36 100
Accuracy of Occurrence 5 25 25 36
Consistency of Data 10 900 100 100
Flexibility to Change 10 100 100 40
Confidence of Occurrence 8 0 0 6400
Ease of Implementation 10 100 0 256
Ease of Exploitation 5 0 225 4900
Post development analysis 5 225 0 900
Feedback and Control 10 900 900 400
Impact on Environment 5 225 225 4900
Cost Effective 8 576 256 900
Ease of Diffusion 10 400 900 576
Measurement of Performance 5 25 100 25
Mean Square Error
Mean Square Error
(Average of Square Error)
Mean Square Error 6593 8497 30670
RANK 1 2 3
Analysis:
● The forecast technique with the least amount of deviation is the appropriate technique to be
employed for the specific technology based on established characteristics
● For this example, Delphi method is deemed most appropriate to carry-out the forecast process of
e-commerce
● It is best if the second least amount of deviation be employed to validate the forecast technique. So a
normative forecast technique should back the Delphi forecast for e-commerce

Choosing a Foresight Method
● Selection process is usually dominated by intuition, insight, impulse, and sometimes inexperience
● Popper suggested to recognize the fundamental attributes and elements of the foresight activity
to reduce subjectivity
● Based on Intrinsic Attributes of the Method ● Based on Elements of the Foresight Process
○ Nature ○ Geo-R&D Context
○ Capabilities ○ Codified Outputs
○ Methods Mix
(Popper, 2008)
● Based on 886 foresight studies conducted
worldwide, 3 widely used methods are
○ Literature Review
○ Expert Panels
○ Scenarios
● On average, around 5 methods are used per
foresight study
● In terms of nature of method, qualitative
methods are frequently used since future
studies are inevitably informed by expert and
creative opinions
● In terms of capabilities of method, most
studies lean toward evidence, expertise, and
interactive-based methods, with weak
association with creative methods due to lack
of guidance and literature
(Popper, 2008)
● In terms of geo-R&D context:
○ High GERD countries rely on
roadmapping and modelling
○ Low GERD countries use exploratory
and comparative techniques like
scanning, SWOT, and bibliometrics
● Influence is relatively high
(Popper, 2008)
● In terms of codified outputs:
○ If you want policy recommendations, use
extrapolation
○ If you want trends analysis, use
extrapolation
○ If you want scenarios, use scenario
method, extrapolation, and modelling
○ If you want research priorities, use
literature review and expert panel
○ If you want list of key technologies, use
expert panels, literature review, Delphi,
extrapolation, and brainstorming
○ If you want forecasts, use extrapolation
and modelling
○ If you want technology roadmap, use
roadmaps, expert panel, literature review,
future workshops, and key technologies
● Influence is high
(Popper, 2008)
● In terms of method mix:
○ Most methods are combined with
literature review, expert panels, and
scenarios
○ Scenarios are used with extrapolation
○ Brainstorming is used with futures
workshop and SWOT
○ Delphi is used with brainstorming
○ Environmental scanning is used with
extrapolation and brainstorming
● Influence is high
(Popper, 2008)
Strategies for Implementation
● Strengthen relationship between foresight and innovation system
○ When foresight can direct national R&D system, it will lead to a desirable future
○ Foresight must be effected at the regional level as well
○ Corporate level foresight must coincide with corporate and national R&D system
● Establish link between foresight and roadmap to strengthen execution
○ Desirable future scenario can only be achieved through R&D and technology development
○ Roadmap can allow proper and systematic technology development to achieve future scenario
● Encourage participation of citizens in foresight activity
○ This will maximize the positive effect and minimize negative effect of S&T programs to be
effected to achieve future scenarios
(Lee, 2015)
Corporate Technology Forecasting
● Usually not shared by corporations
● Decisions are mostly based on tacit knowledge without much forecast used
● Competitive Intelligence is more common in the corporate world, rather than the term forecast
○ Novartis employed technology intelligence specialists to watch the market and meet physically
every quarter to integrate the information gathered into a holistic strategy
○ GlaxoSmithKline applied scientometrics (similar to bibliometrics) to identify growing research
fields and close researches with low impact. They identified that GI research has the least
research performance and closed it, while they focused on research involving the CNS since it
has the most research potential generated.

Corporate Technology Forecasting
● Common methods used per industry:
○ Pharmaceuticals use bibliometrics and roadmapping due to the
■ It is an R&D-intensive industry, so the forecast methods above allows them to reduce
research complexity and allow better allocation of research budget
○ Electronics industry use conference analysis, roadmapping, and lead-user analysis
■ It is a market-driven industry so forecast data depends on the consumers
■ It is a fast-paced world battling for the dominant design so monitoring of competitors is
critical
○ Machinery Industries use QFD
■ It is a mature and less dynamic industry so technological change is more on incremental
innovations integrating the needs of the customers
○ Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, and Machinery Industries use patent analyses, benchmarking,
expert interviews, and scenario analyses

Corporate Technology Foresight
● At the corporate level, foresight exercises allows them to adapt to the shortening lifecycle and survive
the evolving technology environment
● IBM released a report called the Global Innovation Outlook which contains megatrends information
that deals with the healthcare industry, e-government, and change management
○ IBM has been trying to adapt to the new environment from analog to digital, from main-frame
computer to a business solutions company
● Corning uses a roadmap to foresee future technology solutions and insights such as LCD, optic fibers,
and bio-related innovations
(Lee, 2015)
National Technology Foresight
● At a national level, foresight exercises serves as the control tower for the national innovation system
● The time horizon commonly pursued worldwide is 10-20 years by at least 200 government experts
employing methods like literature reviews, scenarios, and trend extrapolations
● Common foresight objectives:
○ Foster cooperation and networking
○ Orienting policy development
○ Recognizing barriers and drivers to science, technology, and innovation (STI)
○ Encourage futures thinking and shared visions
○ Priority and research goals setting for STI
● Common insights raised by national foresight activities include:
○ Call for policy shifts
○ Creation of new projects, programs, strategies, and discussions
○ Further research for the NGOs and private industry
○ Improve academe-industry linkage
○ Increase public spending
○ Include international cooperation in innovation system
(Lee, 2015; Berze, 2014)

● The United States of America published the World Foresight Report that maps the global future in 2025
and 2030. It contains information of world megatrends in economy, governance, and issues
● The United Kingdom has focused their foresight studies in areas of brain science, new diseases, and
intelligent building systems
● In Korea, foresight is conducted every 5 years, with the following steps:
○ Identify future needs and issues of society
○ Align them with technology and Delphi analysis
○ Scenario analysis for future social changes
● Japan utilizes multiple foresight techniques to influence their basic science, technology, and societal plans
(Lee, 2015)
● The Philippines has embarked on a futures thinking workshop to support and strengthen the long-term
Filipino vision “Ambisyon 2040”
○ In 2040, all Filipinos will enjoy a stable and comfortable lifestyle, secure in the knowledge that we
have enough for our daily needs and unexpected expenses, that we can plan and prepare for our
own and our children’s futures. Our families live together in a place of our own, yet we have the
freedom to go where we desire, protected and enabled by a clean, efficient, and fair government
○ The Asian Development Bank engaged with 30 policy makers from the National Economic
Development Authority (NEDA) and its attached agencies with a one of the objectives:
■ Identifying future scenarios with key focus in education as key towards economic
development (higher education, alternative learning systems [ALS], and the K-12 model)
(NEDA, 2016; ADB, 2020)

○ The scenario was made for the future of alternative learning system under 4 scenario categories
(ADB, 2020)
○ Based on the scenarios developed, the following recommendations were generated towards the
Department of Education:
■ Conducting pilots for unstructured learning to alter the current view of alternative learning
■ Developing a niche for ALS
■ Engaging public–private partnerships, forming consortia of ALS providers, mobilizing donor
funding for the pilots, and transferring technology from foreign experts
■ Building capacity of teachers to increase their readiness for new technology.
○ Economic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said “In the era of industry 4.0, it could not be
business-as-usual. The government must be prepared to face the challenges and seize the
opportunities using strategic thinking and foresight.”
(ADB, 2020)
Quality Evaluation of Methods
● Evaluation should establish the effectivity and how far the method has achieved its intended output
● Serves as a challenge since there is no toolkit for evaluating the influence of the forecast, its output,
and the extent of activity
● Aspects of Evaluation:
○ Product-oriented results like strategic reports, and proposals; which are possible to count and
document
○ Process-oriented results like networks built, shared understanding, alliance formation; which
are difficult to measure and monitor since it requires more explicit examination
● Evaluation of Methods in terms of:
○ Futures = assessment depends on the period of forecast, the longer is the forecast period, the
more difficult it is to assess
○ Participation and Networks = engagement of multiple experts and formation of networks
makes the assessment more complex; hence, it must be carried in real time
○ Action = are the decisions attributed in the forecast or are they merely used as means of
legitimation?

PORTER’S GENERIC
STRATEGIES
04
Porter’s Generic Strategies
● Generic strategies, compiled by Michael Porter, to allow organizations gain competitive advantage
and attract loyal customers
● Based on competitive advantage and scope:
○ Competitive Advantage (Lower Cost / Differentiation)
○ Competitive Scope (Broad / Narrow)
● Porter’s Generic Strategies
○ Cost Leadership COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
○ Differentiation
COST UNIQUENESS
○ Cost Focus
Differentiation Focus
NARROW BROAD
○ Cost Leadership Differentiation
○ Best-Cost Provider
SCOPE Best-Cost Provider
Cost Focus Differentiation Focus
(Akan et al., 2005)

Differentiation Strategy
● Company focuses on providing unique product/service, setting them apart from competitors
● Allows premium pricing since the customers are willing to pay for it due to its appeal with sophisticated and
knowledgeable customers
● Effectively implemented in the presence of superior quality, unique offering, multiple features, prestige, or
after-sale service support
● Best to use when:
○ There are many ways to differentiate your product/service
■ Hotel chains can differentiate on such features as location, size of room, range of guest services,
in-hotel dining, and the quality and luxuriousness of bedding and furnishings
○ Needs are diverse
■ Restaurants can differentiate based on the diversity of consumer preferences through menu
selection, ambience, pricing, and customer service
○ Few rivals with differentiation strategy
■ The best way to appeal to buyers is sell what the rivals are not emphasizing
■ When companies are claiming “ours tastes better” or “ours gets your clothes cleaner,” it means
that there is a strong competition occuring in that industry
○ Technological change and innovation are fast-paced
■ This is most true in video games, PCs, and mobile phones
■ Competitors are in an ongoing battle to set themselves apart by introducing the best
next-generation products; otherwise , they will quickly lose out in the marketplace.
(Akan et al., 2005; Morris, 2019)
● Be careful when:
○ Product/service value is overestimated
■ Be careful when potential buyers conclude “so what,” they will likely decide the product
is not worth the extra price and sales will be disappointingly low
○ Features are easy to duplicate
■ This is why firms must search out sources of uniqueness that are time-consuming or
burdensome for rivals to match to win a sustainable competitive edge over rivals
○ Excessive costs diminishing profitability
■ Company efforts to achieve differentiation nearly always raise costs
■ Add little touches of differentiation that add to value but are inexpensive to institute
○ Failing to understand the market’s need
■ Buyers will not adopt if they are satisfied with a basic functions of a product and don’t
think “extra” attributes are worth a higher price
● Tactics with Significant Organization Performance:
○ Innovation in Marketing Technology and Methods
○ Fostering Innovation and Creativity
○ Focus on Building High Market Share

○ Innovation in Marketing Technology and Methods
■ Land Rover Ltd. organized a special marketing event addressed only to Range Rover
owners
● With the help of their $150,000 investment on marketing database system, they
were able to identify 4,000 Range Rover owners and sold their new model with
$52 million in sales
● Database utilization has shifted from simple databank to allowing interaction and
tracking of customers
● Research dictates it is 8-10 times more expensive to find new customers than to
market in your existing market
(Akan et al., 2005)

○ Fostering Innovation and Creativity
■ P&G innovation focus has shifted from incremental innovation & internal performance
parameters to holistic innovation which is more customer-centric
● This is primarily due to maturing technologies of the company as indicated by
their declining sales growth
● Holistic innovation was employed through empathic design (a customer insight
technique where firms “fit in the shoes of its customers”) and computational
modeling
● P&G met all their financial projections in 2004 with 25% increase in profits
surmounting to $6.5 billion
● This highlights the significance of including foresighting in strategic planning
process
■ The Idea Factory has identified four options to foster innovation:
● Develop cross-functional teams
● Explore the external perspective of the environment (think outside the box)
● Balance the creative and operation imperatives (enhancing the internal motivation
system)
● Establish a proactive and learning organization
(Akan et al., 2005)
○ Building High Market Share
■ Longo, a Toyota car dealer company, was able to sell 56 vehicles a day, landing them in
2004 list of top-selling dealers in the US
● Their success was attributed to their workforce diversity that enabled them to
form a bond through sharing of cultural values with their non-White customers
● This is supported with the significant rise of immigrants in the US
● Besides hiring people of color, they also liaise with ethnic media partner New
California Media (which is composed of mostly Hispanics and other minorities)
(Akan et al., 2005)

Cost Leadership Strategy
● Producing standardized products at low cost per unit for price-sensitive markets
● Focuses on gaining competitive advantage by having the lowest overall cost
● Low-cost manufacturing and rapid distribution as the mindset
● Achieved through mass production & distribution, economies of scale, full utilization of resources,
revamping the value chain, lean production methods, and tight control of overhead costs
● Be careful of aggressive cost-cutting that may affect product quality and service productivity
○ Strong price competition
■ Low-cost providers are in the best position to compete offensively on the basis of price
○ Identical products/services with competitors
■ Commodity products set the stage for lively price competition
○ Strong market demand (thus high bargaining power)
■ McDonald’s has developed a loyal “fast-food” market for being the first quick service
restaurant chain in the market
○ Low switching cost in part of buyer
■ When the product or service differences between brands do not matter much to buyers,
buyers nearly always shop the market for the best price
○ New entrants to attract mainstream market
■ Huawei introducing the concept of entry level smartphones
Cost Leadership Strategy
○ Minimizing Distribution Costs
■ Walmart & Home Depot utilizes cross docking to minimize distribution costs
● Distribution Channels are the major source of added cost in the retail sector
● They avoid putting products in storage but are placed in staging and shipping
docks immediately
● This eliminates redundant activities and shifting cost between distributors and
suppliers (avoiding less-than-truckload)
(Akan et al., 2005)

Focus Strategy
● Focus on specific market segment, either by
○ Demographic
○ Geographic
○ Product/Service Range
● Aims at growing market share through effective operation in niche segment versus large competitors
● Market segment should have large growth potential but small enough to be noticed by competitors
● Allows directing of firm’s resources to certain value chain activities to build advantage
○ You know that your market is niche with strong potential
○ Want to enhance customer relations
● Be careful when:
○ Market is too small that it will entail higher production costs
○ The segment becomes attractive to major competitors
(Akan et al., 2005)

Focus Strategy
● This can be combined with Low Cost & Differentiation Strategy
● Focus/Low-Cost Tactics with Significant Organization Performance
○ Outstanding Customer Service
○ Improving Operational Efficiency
○ Controlling Product/Service Quality
○ Extensive Training of Front-line Personnel
● Focus/Differentiation Tactics with Significant Organization Performance
○ Producing Specialty Products/Services
○ Producing Products/Services for High Price Market Segments
(Akan et al., 2005)

Cost Focus Strategy
● Tactics with Significant Organization Performance
○ Outstanding Customer Service
■ Hampton Inn, the budget hotel brand of Hilton Hotels, instills the “Make It Hampton”
philosophy which is basically 100% customer satisfaction guarantee
● Three cornerstones enabling customer satisfaction: Welcome, Room, and
Breakfast
● Their target are the value conscious travellers
● Quality Control may seem not a low-cost tactic but it encourages standardization
of procedures reducing customer complaints allowing cost savings in the long run
■ Men’s Wearhouse, a discount retailer, focuses on men’s apparel and hands-on service to
customers
● They are 20-30% cheaper compared to competitors and tailoring service is
always present which is only few in most department stores
● This accounts to forecasted 10% sales growth or $1.71 billion
(Akan et al., 2005)

Cost Focus Strategy
○ Improving Operational Efficiency
■ Community Hospitals of Central California saved 19% in supply costs by employing a
medication dispensing system called MedStations
● This reduces the time of getting medicines from 2 hours down to 30 minutes
● It is connected with various hospital departments like materials managements
and billing systems which efficiently tracks inventory
● It can also properly trace medication costs per patient and prevent losses
○ Controlling Product/Service Quality
■ Jollibee succeeded in pioneering in the Philippine market thanks to tight control of
operations management yet catering products fit to the local palate
■ E*Trade invested in a new software that avoids previous problems of system overload in
their online brokerage website
● Their quality control investment reduces waste and help save money
○ Extensive Training of Front-line Personnel
■ Southwest Airline, a low-fare airline company, capitalizes on human interactions which
allowed them to garner the lowest customer complaint in the US airline industry
● Besides careful recruitment, employee training is streamlined and cross-trained
which also accounts to their low turnover rate
(Akan et al., 2005)
Differentiation Focus Strategy
○ Producing Specialty Products/Services
■ Pier 1, a furniture retailing company, has shifted from being a low-cost distributor to
distributing high-end imported and specialized fixtures, which accounted to their 400%
increase in sales after the transition
■ The Vegetarian Kitchen is the oldest standing restaurant in the Philippines that purely
caters to the vegetarian and vegan community
○ Producing Products/Services for High Price Market Segments
■ The “Dare to be First” campaign of Cadillac was aimed to appeal China’s elite high-flying
entrepreneurs
● The campaign allows Cadillac to be differentiated by other top-tier luxury cars by
being the first mover
(Akan et al., 2005)

Best-Cost Provider
● Combines differentiation and cost strategies by making upscale products at a lower cost, giving
customers more value for their money
● The objective is to exceed customer expectations (quality and cost wise) by delivering superior value
● Works best in a diverse differentiated markets who are price sensitive
● Be careful when being too likened with low-cost leaders, there must be a significant difference
between the low-cost and best-cost
● Examples:
○ Toyota provides the best vehicle options for the lower class market but also caters the upper
class market through its luxury vehicle division Lexus
○ LazMall sells a variety of goods that attracts the Filipino mass market (like the availability of SM
Store but also sells premium branded goods for the upper class Filipinos (like S&R)
○ Pizza Hut practices a menu tiering system to cater the mainstream market such as selling value
pizza by the slice for the lower class market but also serves bistro-level cuisine for the
(Morris, 2019)
First Mover Advantages
● Build the firm’s image and reputation with buyers
● Produce cost advantage over future rivals in terms of new technology
● Create strong loyal customer market
● Difficult to imitate or duplicate by rivals
● Secure access and commitments to rare resources
● Gain new knowledge over critical success factors
● Gain market share and position in best locations
● In the Philippines, first movers benefit from Income Tax Holiday
○ Use of design, formula, method, process, or system that is new or untried
(Schilling, BOI)
Thank you!
Do you have any questions? :)
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References
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Asian Development Bank. (2020). Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. Asian Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS200126-2
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303.

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Technology Futures

Jairus Kent Vital

November 28, 2020

A systematic framework of processes and

(TFAWMG, 2003; Cana, 2020)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

Intelligence Roadmapping Foresight

Monitoring Forecasting Assessment

Backed by expert and

Usually predicts Predicts many

● Can be approached as projective or exploratory: given the present and

(Mishra, Deshmukh & Vrat, 2001)

● Can be approached as normative: we create future possibilities and assess

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Freeman et al., 2013; Brown, 2017)

(Murphy, Meehan, & Bogue., 2003)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Lokuhitige & Brown, 2017)

(Lokuhitige & Brown, 2017)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Popper, 2008)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Pravinkumar et al., 2018)

(Pravinkumar et al., 2018)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Lincoln Interactive, 2008)

(Lincoln Interactive, 2008)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Jun, Sun & Park, 2017)

(Jun, Sun & Park, 2017)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Popper, 2008)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008; Lincoln, 2008)

(Mishra, Deshmukh & Vrat, 2001)

(Mishra, Deshmukh & Vrat, 2001)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

(Lee, 2015; Berze, 2014)

(NEDA, 2016; ADB, 2020)

(Firat, Woon & Madnick, 2008)

SCOPE Best-Cost Provider

Cost Focus Differentiation Focus

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005; Morris, 2019)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

(Akan et al., 2005)

CREDITS: This presentation template was

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