VICENTE, JUDE MICHAEL RUTOL OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

BSBA 2A 10:30 TO 11:30 MWF MODULE # 2

ASSIGNMENT
Problem Set No. 1

1. Use quantitative forecast methods for the data shown below:

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Observatio 24 34 36 37 41 44 45
n

Compute For:
a. Naïve Method,

Period Observation Forecast

1 24
2 34 24
3 36 34
4 37 36
5 41 37
6 44 41
7 45 44

b. Three-period Moving Average

Period Actual Forecast

Demand
January 21
February 25
March 29
April 21
May 25 (21+25+29+) = 55.6
3
June 20 (25+29+21+ ) = 61
3
July 18
August 21
Septembe 20
r
October 19
 November 18
December 15

c. Three-period Weighted Moving Average

Period Actual Forecast

Demand
January 21
February 25
March 29
April 21 ((29x3)+(25x 2)+(21x 1))=
26
6
May 25 ((21x3) +(29x2) +(25x1))=
24
6
June 20 ((25x 3)+(21x2)+ (29x1)) =
24
6
July 18
August 21
September 20
October 19
November 18
December 15

D. Four-period Weighted Moving Average

Four-Period Weighted Moving Average
Demand Supply Forecast
1 35
2 50
3 65
4 55
5 70 (55x4) + (65x3) + (50x2) +( 35x 1) = 55
10
6 75
 2. Suppose that the University had the following data of its growth of enrollment
from 2006 – 20014.
Year Enrollment
2006 3000
2007 3200
2008 3600
2009 3650
2010 4000
2011 4200
2012 4300
2013 4410
2014 4520

A. Forecast the 2015 enrollment using three-year weighted moving average forecast.

a. Using smooth α= 0.30, forecast the 2015 enrollment.

b. Use four-year weighted moving average from 2010 t0 2015

3. For the 2007-2008 Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) season, Purefoods

James Yap was the scoring leader with an average of 33 points per game. The
following data shows the average number of points per game for the scoring
leader from 2002-2003 season to the 2007-2008 season

Season Average
2002-2003 25
2003-2004 35
2004-2005 29
2005-2006 34
2006-2007 35
2007-2008 33

a. Use exponential smoothing to forecast this time series. Consider smoothing

constant of α = 0.20 and α = 0.30. What value of the smoothing constant
provides the best forecast?
b. What is the forecast of the leading scoring average for 2008-2009 season?
4. The Javill Department Store has been an authorized dealer for flat TV for the
past 5 years. The number of flat TV sold each year is shown in the table.

Year No. Flat TV Sold

1 40
2 25
3 35
4 39
5 43

a. Develop an equation for the linear trend component of the time series.
b. Use the developed trend equation from (b) to prepare for the sales in Year 6
and year 7.