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Strong Product positioning We continue to prefer companies with strong balance sheet, low debt levels, good
corporate governance, well managed working capital cycle and long-term scalability
Global leadership position
that would sail through these turbulent times and be beneficiary in the long-run. Our
top picks in the sector are L&T, KPP and APR.
July 6, 2021 1
Capital Goods
Flat OI in 4Q led by decline in L&T OI Utilization level inching towards pre-covid level
949
75.0
68.6 69.9
66.6
772
772
767
1,000 75.2
753
437
60.0
365
600
55.0
400
50.0
200 47.3
45.0
- 40.0
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Source: Company, PL Source: RBI, Company, PL
New order grew owing to lower base Low base and economic recovery led to higher IIP
Rs trillion Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
IIP growth (%) Capital Goods (%)
New projects 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.6
60
YoY gr. -20% -20% -82% -52% 89%
40
Completed projects 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 20 22.4
YoY gr. -69% -11% -49% -37% 100% 0 4.5
Stalled projects 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 -20 -18.3
-40 -34.7
YoY gr. -15% -85% -49% -81% 55%
-60
Revived projects 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
-80
YoY gr. 134% -42% -82% -52% -91%
-100
Implementation stalled projects 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
May-20
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Mar-20
Mar-21
Feb-20
Feb-21
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
Nov-19
Dec-19
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
YoY gr. -91% -90% 15% -97% 178%
Source: CMIE, Company, PL
Source: MOSPI, Company, PL
Qtr GDP growth inching towards Pre Covid level Business sentiments showing upswing
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Q4FY21
Q1FY22
-24.4
July 6, 2021 2
Capital Goods
July 6, 2021 3
Capital Goods
Source: Company, PL
July 6, 2021 4
Capital Goods
Management Commentary
Company Commentary
Management remains cautious in near term owing to market uncertainty on account of second wave of Covid-19. Sectors like
ABB power distribution, mining, metals, data centers, pharmaceutical, F&B, electronics, e-mobility, renewables, etc. are seeing good
traction.
Company expects steep rise in raw material and freight cost will impact margins till H1FY22 as OB comprise of legacy orders
APR which are of mostly fixed cost in nature. Focus remains towards value added product which help them gain market share, given its
superior product quality, first mover advantage and strong brand positioning.
Given strong bid pipeline (~Rs250bn), management guided OI of Rs150-170bn with healthy revenue growth of 15-20% YoY and
BHE
EBITDA margins in 20-22% range for FY22.
Management stands optimistic for exports market with demand revival expected from H2FY22, with recovery seen in China, North
KKC America and European region. For domestic market, traction continues in power generation, construction, mining and mineral
segment.
Management indicated strong traction in international T&D segment in Middle East, Africa, SAARC and MENA region. Though
KECI
domestic segment ordering pipeline remains healthy, some delay in order finalization has been witnessed.
Management remains optimistic for market recovery in FY22 with order pipeline being strong and orders coming from green
GETD energy corridor TBCB project, where GETD’s addressable market is ~Rs25bn from state utility. Going ahead, company would
continue to focus on cash flow over revenue and growth in OI.
Demand environment is vibrant across sectors primarily led by pick up in private capex cycle, short cycle orders and sharp
SIEM recovery in economic activity. Sectors such as data centre, e-commerce, waste heat recovery, smart infra, digitalization,
automation, TBCB, hospitals, sub-station, etc. would help drive growth going ahead.
Given the strong OB of Rs ~Rs139.8bn (including Linjemontage), management expects FY22 revenue to grow by 10-15% with
KPP
EBITDA margin to be in double digit.
Order pipeline remains healthy at Rs9.6trn for FY22E (domestic Rs6.6trn; exports Rs3trn), with traction in sectors like Metro,
LT Railways, Roads, Expressway, Water, Renewable and Power T&D. Management guided for low to mid teen growth in revenues
and order inflow for FY22.
Management indicated ordering activity from Tier 2-3 market specially from F&B, chemical and textile witnessed slowdown and is
TMX expected to be muted till end of Q1FY21, while big ticket orders from Oil & Gas, Chemical and FGD is witnessing traction. Sectors
like Cement, Steel, Refinery, Chemical, Pharma and F&B are expected to drive growth going ahead.
Management indicated order inflows in FY22 to be strong, mainly led by pent up demand and strong enquiry pipeline from
TRIV domestic as well as export market. Further given healthy order conversion in 1Q, it expects order inflows for product segment to
surpass the FY21 levels in H1FY22.
July 6, 2021 5
Capital Goods
Valuation Summary
CMP TP MCap Sales (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) PAT (Rs bn) EPS (Rs) RoE (%) PE (x)
Company Names S/C Rating
(Rs) (Rs) (Rs bn) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
ABB India* S UR 1,758 NA 372.5 73.2 58.2 72.8 84.7 5.3 2.8 5.8 6.8 3.0 2.3 4.0 4.6 14.3 10.9 19.0 21.9 8.0 6.5 10.8 11.6 123.2 161.6 92.6 80.3
Apar Industries C Buy 540 696 20.7 74.3 63.9 66.7 73.9 4.6 4.1 5.5 6.1 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 35.3 41.9 53.8 58.0 11.4 12.5 13.8 13.4 15.3 12.9 10.0 9.3
Bharat Electronics S Buy 181 208 441.1 129.2 140.6 164.9 192.9 27.3 31.8 34.9 41.8 17.9 20.7 24.9 29.8 7.4 8.5 10.2 12.2 19.0 20.0 21.3 22.1 24.6 21.4 17.7 14.8
BHEL S Sell 64 34 224.4 214.6 173.1 226.2 307.3 -2.3 -31.4 -6.2 17.3 -14.7 -27.2 -7.4 10.0 -4.2 -7.8 -2.1 2.9 -4.9 -9.8 -2.8 3.8 -15.2 -8.3 -30.2 22.4
Engineers India C BUY 79 129 44.5 32.4 31.4 33.9 37.0 4.5 3.5 3.9 5.4 4.2 4.0 4.6 6.0 6.7 7.2 8.2 10.7 17.8 19.4 24.7 27.8 11.8 11.0 9.6 7.4
GE T&D India S Hold 140 141 35.7 31.6 34.5 37.3 42.4 -2.2 1.5 2.2 2.7 -2.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 -9.7 2.2 4.4 6.4 -20.1 5.2 9.6 12.9 -14.4 62.9 31.8 21.7
KEC International* C UR 420 NA 107.9 119.7 131.1 148.2 170.4 12.3 11.4 14.1 17.1 5.7 5.5 7.2 9.0 22.0 21.5 27.9 35.0 21.6 18.0 19.6 20.7 19.1 19.5 15.1 12.0
Cummins India* S UR 869 NA 241.0 51.6 43.3 53.3 59.6 5.9 5.8 6.4 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.4 22.7 22.3 23.8 26.5 15.2 14.4 14.6 15.5 38.3 39.0 36.6 32.7
Kalpataru Power
S UR 422 NA 63.2 79.0 76.7 94.2 110.5 8.6 8.1 10.2 11.9 4.4 6.2 6.0 7.3 28.4 41.0 40.1 48.8 13.1 16.6 16.3 21.3 14.8 10.3 10.5 8.6
Transmission*
Larsen & Toubro* C UR 1,506 NA 2,114.6 1454.5 1359.8 1565.8 1728.9 163.3 156.2 176.6 197.8 95.5 115.8 96.9 110.2 68.0 82.5 69.0 78.4 14.8 16.2 12.1 12.5 22.1 18.3 21.8 19.2
Siemens C Acc 2,029 2,101 722.2 137.7 99.5 131.0 153.0 14.9 10.0 14.7 17.1 11.0 7.7 11.5 13.6 30.9 21.6 32.3 38.1 12.7 8.3 11.6 12.4 65.7 93.9 62.9 53.2
Thermax C Acc 1,484 1,559 167.1 57.3 47.9 59.6 73.3 4.1 3.6 5.1 6.2 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.6 18.9 23.0 32.1 41.0 7.0 8.3 10.7 12.5 78.7 64.5 46.2 36.2
Triveni Turbine C BUY 125 156 40.5 8.2 7.0 9.7 11.1 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.8 3.7 4.2 5.2 25.3 20.7 19.9 20.9 33.3 33.5 29.5 24.0
Voltamp Transformers S Acc 1,462 1,565 14.8 8.6 6.9 9.1 11.2 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 88.3 110.9 100.7 130.4 12.5 14.2 11.7 13.8 16.6 13.2 14.5 11.2
Source: Company, PL S=Standalone / C=Consolidated / Acc=Accumulate / UR = Under Review *: Due to recent run-up in the stock price, we have placed the ratings UR and will revise the
rating post result
July 5, 2021 6
Capital Goods
Change in Estimates
Sales PAT EPS
Rating Target Price
FY22 FY23 FY22 FY23 FY22 FY23
% % % % % % %
C P C P C P C P C P C P C P C P
Chng. Chng. Chng. Chng. Chng. Chng. Chng.
ABB India* UR Hold NA 1,337 NA 72,849 72,849 0.0% 84,716 84,716 0.0% 4,022 4,022 0.0% 4,638 4,638 0.0% 19.0 19.0 0.0% 21.9 21.9 0.0%
Apar Industries Buy Buy 696 696 0.0% 66,661 66,661 0.0% 73,906 73,906 0.0% 2,060 2,060 0.0% 2,220 2,220 0.0% 53.8 53.8 0.0% 58.0 58.0 0.0%
Bharat Electronics Buy Buy 208 208 0.0% 1,64,921 1,64,921 0.0% 1,92,866 1,92,866 0.0% 24,865 24,865 0.0% 29,825 29,825 0.0% 10.2 10.2 0.0% 12.2 12.2 0.0%
BHEL Sell Sell 34 34 0.0% 2,26,247 2,26,247 0.0% 3,07,287 3,07,287 0.0% -7,431 -7,431 0.0% 10,002 10,002 0.0% -2.1 -2.1 0.0% 2.9 2.9 0.0%
Engineers India BUY BUY 129 129 0.0% 33,910 33,910 0.0% 37,046 37,046 0.0% 4,630 4,630 0.0% 6,029 6,029 0.0% 8.2 8.2 0.0% 10.7 10.7 0.0%
GE T&D India Hold Hold 141 141 0.0% 37,292 37,292 0.0% 42,441 42,441 0.0% 1,124 1,124 0.0% 1,646 1,646 0.0% 4.4 4.4 0.0% 6.4 6.4 0.0%
KEC International* UR Acc NA 420 NA 1,48,206 1,48,206 0.0% 1,70,398 1,70,398 0.0% 7,170 7,170 0.0% 9,002 9,002 0.0% 27.9 27.9 0.0% 35.0 35.0 0.0%
Cummins India* UR Hold NA 796 NA 53,290 53,290 0.0% 59,606 59,606 0.0% 6,591 6,591 0.0% 7,359 7,359 0.0% 23.8 23.8 0.0% 26.5 26.5 0.0%
Kalpataru Power
UR BUY NA 448 NA 94,181 94,181 0.0% 1,10,510 1,10,510 0.0% 6,016 6,016 0.0% 7,315 7,315 0.0% 40.1 40.1 0.0% 48.8 48.8 0.0%
Transmission*
Larsen & Toubro* UR BUY NA 1,604 NA 15,65,756 15,65,756 0.0% 17,28,877 17,28,877 0.0% 96,940 96,940 0.0% 1,10,187 1,10,187 0.0% 69.0 69.0 0.0% 78.4 78.4 0.0%
Siemens Acc Acc 2,101 2,101 0.0% 1,31,047 1,31,047 0.0% 1,53,005 1,53,005 0.0% 11,485 11,485 0.0% 13,570 13,570 0.0% 32.3 32.3 0.0% 38.1 38.1 0.0%
Thermax Acc Acc 1,559 1,559 0.0% 59,567 59,567 0.0% 73,293 73,293 0.0% 3,616 3,616 0.0% 4,621 4,621 0.0% 32.1 32.1 0.0% 41.0 41.0 0.0%
Triveni Turbine BUY BUY 156 156 0.0% 9,657 9,657 0.0% 11,137 11,137 0.0% 1,374 1,374 0.0% 1,684 1,684 0.0% 4.2 4.2 0.0% 5.2 5.2 0.0%
Voltamp Transformers Acc Acc 1,565 1,565 0.0% 9,100 9,100 0.0% 11,206 11,206 0.0% 1,018 1,018 0.0% 1,319 1,319 0.0% 100.7 100.7 0.0% 130.4 130.4 0.0%
Source: Company, PL C=Current / P=Previous / Acc=Accumulate / UR = Under Review *: Due to recent run-up in the stock price, we have placed the ratings UR and will revise the rating
post result
July 5, 2021 7
Capital Goods
Analyst Coverage Universe
Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 ABB India Hold 1,337 1,388
2 Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Accumulate 410 392
3 Apar Industries BUY 696 524
4 Ashoka Buildcon BUY 160 115
5 Bharat Electronics BUY 208 169
6 BHEL Sell 34 67
7 Capacite's Infraprojects BUY 270 213
8 Container Corporation of India Hold 607 634
9 Cummins India Hold 796 772
10 Engineers India BUY 129 84
11 GE T&D India Hold 141 137
12 H.G. Infra Engineering BUY 476 414
13 IRB Infrastructure Developers BUY 179 158
14 ITD Cementation India BUY 97 88
15 J.Kumar Infraprojects BUY 272 190
16 Kalpataru Power Transmission BUY 448 382
17 KEC International Accumulate 420 417
18 KNR Constructions Accumulate 253 245
19 Larsen & Toubro BUY 1,604 1,416
20 NCC BUY 111 91
21 PNC Infratech UR - 306
22 Power Grid Corporation of India BUY 205 170
23 Sadbhav Engineering Accumulate 97 82
24 Siemens Accumulate 2,101 2,064
25 Thermax Accumulate 1,559 1,455
26 Triveni Turbine BUY 156 123
27 Voltamp Transformers Accumulate 1,565 1,424
July 6, 2021 8
Capital Goods
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
(Indian Clients)
We/I Mr. Viral Shah- BE Chemical Engineering, MBA Finance, Mr. Nilesh Soni- BCom, MBA (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby
certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was,
is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
(US Clients)
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reflect his or her or their personal views about all of the issuers and their securities; and No part of his or her or their compensation was, is or will be directly related to the specific
recommendation or views expressed in this research report.
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