Monthly Recap

June 2021

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

Index VNINDEX Index HNX-Index

1,600 375
325
1,400
275
1,200
225
1,000 175
800 125
600 75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
VN-Index VN30-Index

VN-Index
1,408.55 MONTHLY RECAP
+80.50 (+6.06%) The market's uptrend continued being well maintained with VN-Index conquering a new peak and
Volume: 740.4m successfully surpassing the psychological resistance of 1400 points. Ending June, VN-Index
Value: VND23,807 bn increased by 6.06% to 1,408.55 points with the average daily trading value continuing to increase
to VND23.8 trillion, much higher than VND18.4 trillion in April and VND15.5 trillion in March. VCB
Leading movers in May (+18.1%) led the upside along with large-cap stocks (VHM, GVR, GAS, NVL, SAB, PDR). Many other
Index sectors also contributed positively such as real estate, securities, building materials, fertilizer, oil
Tkr % Chg
Impact & gas, aviation, seafood, construction, retail and textiles. On the other side, the divergence
VCB +18.1% +17.9 pts occurred in the banking group as STB (-9.5%) pulled the market down the most along with BID,
VHM +15.0% +14.1pts VPB, TCB, CTG and TPB . In addition, foreign investors continued to be the net sellers of VND3,915
GVR +22.4% +7.0 pts billion, much lower than VND11,686 billion in May. In which, HPG continued to be sold the most
with a higher net value of VND4,994 billion along with VPB , MBB, VIC, DXG and KDC.
Lagging movers in May
Index In general, the market's uptrend in June was supported positively by many industry groups.
Tkr % Chg
Impact Moreover, market liquidity continuously increased while foreign capital outflows also decreased.
STB -9.5% -1.6 pts However, in the early trading sessions of July, the market sentiment became relatively negative
BID -2.9% -1.5 pts
and dragged VN-Index down below the 1400 point due to the increasing number of Covid-19
VPB -2.2% -1.1 pts
infections as well as stronger social distancing actions. As market movements are expected to be
HNX-Index quite shaky, investors should keep their portfolio proportions cautious and observe the market
closely at 1380-1400 points.
323.32
+5.47 (+1.72%) Mr. Hung Phan
Volume: 166.1m hungpv@acbs.com.vn
Value: VND3,948bn

Leading movers in May

Index
Tkr % Chg
Impact
VND +42.7% +5.7 pts
THD +3.9% +2.9 pts
SHS +15.8% +1.6 pts

Lagging movers in May

Index
Tkr % Chg
Impact
BAB -17.0% -4.9 pts
SHB -5.6% -3.7 pts
NVB -17.2% -2.3 pts

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

Macro highlight during June 2021

Despite new outbreaks of COVID-19 in major cities affecting the manufacturing and services
sector in last 2 months of 2Q2021, GDP 2Q2021 still managed to grow 6.61% YoY, supported
by strong activities from industry & construction sector and active export activities from the
FDI sector. In addition, Vietnam’s economy in 2Q2021 continued to show signs of recovery,
as IIP continued to improved, increased 9.3% YoY (vs +2.8% YoY in 2Q2020) in 2Q2021, but
the growth rate seems to have slowed as the recent COVID-19 outbreak hit major industrial
areas (Bac Ninh, Bac Giang and Binh Duong Province). In addition, FDI inflows registered in
2Q2021 remained solid and FDI disbursed remained stable and we are optimistic that inflows
will remain strong in upcoming months of 2021 as the global economy will gradually recover
and the outbreaks of COVID-19 in Vietnam is contaminated. Even though the CPI in 2Q2021
did not increase much, signs of increased inflation remained as the economy gradually
recovered, however, we expected that inflation will be within government’s target 4% as
they will try their best to control inflation to support stable economic development after
COVID-19.

Recently, the outbreak of the fourth wave of COVID-19 in major cities and industrial hubs
concerns us about stability of Vietnam’s economic activities in the coming months.
Outbreaks have been occurring in major cities and industrial hubs, which may constrain the
growth rate of Vietnam economy, especially manufacturing sector as PMI in June show signs
of a short-term contraction in industrial activities and could slow the recovery of Vietnam’s
economy in the last two quarters of 2021. Fortunately, with past experiences of successfully
containing past waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, with aggressive response to quarantine in
conjunction with strict lockdown, we hope Vietnam could overcome this wave soon and
bring the economic recovery back on track.

GDP Growth YTD Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2Q2021 rose 6.61% supported by recovery of
10% 7.08%
6.76% 5.64%
manufacturing activities
8%
6% •Generally, GDP 1H2021 rose 5.64% YoY, in which:
1.83%
4%
o Agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew 3.82% YoY in 1H2021 (vs +1.14% YoY
2%
in 1H2020);
0%
1H.18 1H 1H.20 1H.21
o Industry and construction sector recovered which grew 8.36% YoY in 1H2021 (vs
Agri.,fort.,&fish. Ind.&const.
+3.16% in 1H2020); and
Services GDP
o Service sector continued to be badly affected by COVID-19 which grew 3.96% YoY
in 1H2021 (vs +0.48% in 1H2020 and +6.68% YoY in 1H2019).
IIP Monthly Vietnam’s industrial production continued to recover in 2Q2021 but posed risks of
40% 30% contraction due to recent outbreak of COVID-19 in upcoming months
20%
20% 10% •IIP 1H2021 grew 9.3% YoY (vs +2.8% YoY in 1H2020), in which:
0%
0% -10% o Manufacturing grew 11.6% YoY in 1H2021 (vs +4.6% in 1H2020);
-20%
-20% -30% o Production and distribution of electricity IIP grew 8.6% YoY in 1H2021 (vs +2.0% in 1H2020);
Sep-20
May-20

May-21
Jan-20

Jan-21

o Water supply and waste treatment IIP grew 6.8% YoY in 1H2021 (vs +2.0% in 1H2020);
IIP MoM (RHS) IIP YoY
o Mining IIP growth continued to record a decline of 6.0% YoY in 1H2021 (vs -7.9% in 1H2020).

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

Bil USD FDI Monthly FDI inflows of 1H2021 remained strong and stable
6 400%
5 • Disbursed FDI in Vietnam reached USD9.3bn in 1H2021 – increasing 6.8% YoY,
300%
4 200% while registered FDI in 1H2021 increased 12.4% YoY reach USD13.6bn. The capital
3
2 100% contribution & share repurchase continued to decline 54% YoY to USD1.6bn in 1H2021.
1 0%
0 -100% • Vietnam’s top 3 FDI investors in 1H2021 are Singapore (USD5.6bn, +3.6% YoY),
Japan (USD2.4n, +66.8% YoY) and Korea (USD2.1bn, +44% YoY).
Sep-20
May-20

May-21
Jan-20

Jan-21

Total Reg. FDI exl. Capital Cont.

• Vietnam’s top 3 sectors are the manufacturing sector with USD7bn of registered
Disbursed FDI FDI; the production and distribution of electricity sector with registered capital of
% Registered FDI growth
USD5.3bn; and the real estate activities sector accounted for USD1.2bn.
Trading activities continued to remain strong in 1H2021 but export slow due to fourth
Bn USD Exports & Imports Mn USD
wave of COVID-19 hit major export-related manufacturers
40 6,000
30 4,000 Generally, according to GSO, total export-import turnover in 1H2021 reached VND317bn
2,000 (+32% YoY) with exports reached USD158bn (+28.4% YoY) while imports USD159bn (+35.6%
20
-
10 (2,000)
YoY). However, import turnover increased more rapidly than export turnover mainly due to
0 (4,000) the fourth wave of COVID-19 hit major cities (Bac Giang, Bac Ninh and Binh Duong Province)
where major export’s companies located, which resulting in a trade deficit of USD1bn in June
May-20

Sep-20

May-21
Jan-20

Jan-21

2021 and brought of trade deficit in 1H2021 to USD1.5bn.

EX IM Net EX (RHS)
Inflation increased slightly but remained low in 1H2021
•CPI in June increase 0.19% MoM and increased 2.42% YoY.
CPI
2.0% 10% •Generally, CPI average in 1H2021 increased 1.47% compared to average last year. In
5% addition, average core CPI of 1H2021 at 0.87% YoY.
0.0%
0%

-2.0% -5%
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Mr. Minh Trinh Viet
CPI monthly (RHS) CPI Yearly
minhtvh@acbs.com.vn

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

Technical View
VN-Index extend uptrend rally to third consecutive month

VN-INDEX performed well through out May and June as it perched up to a fresh two-month-high
at 1420 index points. From the month of May to June, VN-INDEX has 8 weeks of bull run, with just
1 week of minor retracement. This resumption and acceleration of uptrend is remarkable since it
is the biggest rally in-term of length since the beginning of this year. This add to the perspective
that in short-term VN-INDEX is stretched when the key zone of resistance at 1200-1210 is broken
through. As the up-trend is resumed, MA 20 is acting as short-term moving support for VN-INDEX
and can be used to generate buying opportunity. Liquidity is also a bright aspect of Vietnam ‘stock
market as it is still peaking at around 800 million traded shares per session. From the time forward,
VN-INDEX is expected to remain its up-trend strength; however, selling pressure may reappear as
VN-INDEX is stretched in a long rally from May. 1400 is near-term support and MA20 can also be
used as buying opportunity for minor retracement if selling pressure reappear.

Mr. Phuoc Luong

phuocld@acbs.com.vn

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

MARKET OVERVIEW
Foreign Transactions in June
bil VND bil VND
3,500
VN-Index 2,000 600
HNX-Index 100

3,000 1,500 -
500
1,000
2,500 (100)
400
500
2,000 (200)
- 300
1,500 (300)
(500)
200
1,000 (400)
(1,000)
500 100 (500)
(1,500)
0 (2,000) 0 (600)
1/6 3/6 7/6 9/6 11/615/617/621/623/625/629/6 1/6 3/6 7/6 9/6 11/6 15/6 17/6 21/6 23/6 25/6 29/6
Buy Sell Net Trade (RHS) Buy Sell Net Trade (RHS)

Market
# of Index 1 Month YTD
Sector Cap (Tr ROE T. P/B T. P/E
tickers Weight Return Return
VND)
Banks 16 1802.4 34.0% 7.0% 52.5% 19.9% 2.9 17.0
Real Estate 47 1296.0 24.2% 7.8% 40.8% 18.5% 4.4 38.6
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 28 532.9 10.3% 2.6% 0.6% 20.3% 5.7 47.3
Materials 60 514.8 9.9% 10.3% 49.9% 21.5% 3.0 39.4
Utilities 27 263.7 5.1% 13.0% 6.9% 13.8% 2.8 20.2
Capital Goods 75 180.5 3.3% 2.4% 25.0% 15.6% 1.7 41.6
Transportation 26 166.5 3.2% 7.4% 4.4% -27.7% 9.0 52.4
Diversified Financials 12 95.0 1.6% 31.4% 69.1% 17.6% 2.8 19.8
Energy 9 87.2 1.7% 3.9% 9.6% 14.8% 2.5 30.9
Software & Services 3 84.4 1.4% 7.5% 69.2% 22.6% 4.6 21.4
Retailing 9 80.6 1.6% 5.5% 25.7% 25.6% 3.9 20.1
Insurance 4 51.3 1.0% 6.5% -7.9% 9.8% 2.0 21.3
Consumer Durables & Apparel 17 45.6 0.9% 4.8% 49.7% 18.9% 3.3 24.6
Pharma, Biotechnology & Life Sciences 11 36.6 0.7% 4.6% 13.3% 15.9% 2.9 19.8
N/A 14 15.0 0.3% -4.9% 32.7% 11.0% 2.1 32.1
Automobiles & Components 6 8.6 0.2% 7.9% 25.6% 14.2% 1.8 15.3
Consumer Services 9 8.4 0.1% 6.2% 20.4% 1.3% 2.8 25.4
Technology Hardware & Equipment 1 5.7 0.1% 2.1% 51.2% 29.5% 4.4 16.9
Commercial & Professional Services 5 4.7 0.1% 1.8% 3.7% 15.0% 1.5 10.7
Household & Personal Products 1 1.8 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 32.3% 2.7 9.4
Media & Entertainment 2 1.5 0.0% -3.3% -40.2% -25.3% 2.4 0.0
Telecommunication Services 1 1.5 0.0% 22.6% 209.7% 2.7% 1.9 70.9
Health Care Equipment & Services 2 0.9 0.0% 3.9% 0.3% -3.6% 1.1 11.7
VN-Index 385 5285.6 100% 6.1% 27.6% 15.0% 2.9 19.4

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

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 Monthly Recap
June 2021

DISCLAIMER
Our Recommendation System
BUY:where we believe prospective 12 month VND total return (including dividends) will be 15% or more.
HOLD:where we believe it will be -15% to 15%.
SELL:where we believe it will be lower than -15%.

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all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly
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