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Upgrade to BUY from Neutral with a higher DCF-derived MYR6.35 TP from Analyst
MYR4.51, 17% upside. Cases of the coronavirus are now worse than our initial
expectation, as number of the cases and death have doubled in <2 days. Due Alan Lim, CFA
to the Lunar New Year, risks of further transmission are now likely due to the +603 9280 8890
3bn trips expected in China. All this bodes well for long-term gloves demand. alan.lim@rhbgroup.com
Our new TP implies 32.4x forward P/E, +1.23SD from the 5-year forward P/E.
Coronavirus cases: 473; number of deaths: Doubled. According to Reuters,
citing the People’s Daily newspaper, the Chinese authorities have now
confirmed 473 cases of infections and nine deaths. The news wire went on to
report that the virus has now spread to Beijing and Shanghai. Other countries
affected are the US, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan.
The aforementioned report indicates that this is now worse than our
initial assumption of a contained case. In our last report, the number of
coronavirus cases stood at 223 with four deaths as at 21 Jan. These numbers
have effectively doubled in <2 days. Based on the frequent news updates we
have been monitoring, by the time this report reaches the reader, these
numbers could increase.
3bn trips expected in China due to the Lunar New Year. The travel season
in the East Asian nation – in conjunction with the Lunar New Year festivities –
is widely known as the highest number of human migration in the world, at 3bn
trips. Consequently, given the large number of Chinese citizens travelling
during this period, we believe there is a real risk of further transmission.
The World Health Organisation is currently holding a meeting in Geneva,
Switzerland, is to decide whether coronavirus will be declared a “Public Health
Emergency of International Concern" or PHEIC. The outcome should be known
by the end of the day.
Our view: Long-term demand for gloves to increase. Although the short-
term impact to gloves sales volume should be limited, we believe the
coronavirus will raise global health awareness. In turn, this bodes well for
gloves consumption in the long run.
We upgrade our call and TP. FY20-22 core earnings are maintained. Our TP
has been increased due to higher perpetual growth assumptions in our DCF
methodology. The new TP implies 32.4x forward P/E or +1.23SD valuation.
Downside risks: A quick resolution to the coronavirus issue, lower-than-
expected sales volume, volatile nitrile butadiene/latex prices, and a weaker-
than-expected USD.
Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial summary Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20F Aug-21F Aug-22F
Malaysia Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.23
Consumer Non-Cyclical / Rubber Products DPS (MYR) 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.12
Top Glove BVPS (MYR) 0.93 0.95 1.04 1.13 1.25
TOPG MK Equity ROE (%) 17.9 15.3 16.1 17.4 18.7
Valuation basis
We use DCF FCFE valuation. Valuation metrics Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20F Aug-21F Aug-22F
Recurring P/E (x) 32.7 37.5 32.7 27.7 23.4
Key drivers P/B (x) 5.82 5.69 5.24 4.79 4.34
Our FY20 forecasts are most sensitive to changes in: FCF Yield (%) 2.43 3.66 3.89 5.12 5.97
i. Sales volumes; Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1
ii. USD/MYR; EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 23.3 21.3 17.8 15.3
iii. Volatile raw material prices – nitrile butadiene EV/EBIT (x) 29.4 31.6 27.3 22.2 18.7
and natural rubber.
Key risks Income statement (MYRm) Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20F Aug-21F Aug-22F
The downside risks include: Total turnover 4221 4802 5285 5585 5713
i. Worse-than-expected sales volume; Gross profit 853 714 1064 1213 1302
ii. Lower-than-expected USDMYR
EBITDA (adj.) 689 695 761 900 1,028
Company Profile Depreciation & amortisation (146) (195) (166) (179) (189)
Top Glove is the world’s largest disposable glove Operating profit 553 512 594 721 839
producer with a production capacity of 70.1n pieces pa. Net interest (35) (81) (56) (50) (43)
Pre-tax profit 518 431 539 672 795
Taxation (90) (57) (113) (168) (199)
Net profit 424 371 425 503 595
Recurring net profit 424 371 425 503 595
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