Evans summary

John Meyer
108018271714
Aviation and marine shipping are two massive components of the GHG emission picture.
Their impact can be understood in terms of the demand for services (eg passenger or ton
kilometers) multiplied by the energy intensity of fulfilling a unit of demand. We can see that this
means both efficiency and overall utilization will be important for GHGs emitted by
transportation. Both aviation and shipping are causes and effects of globalization, so as
globalization continues demands for these services will increase. We might speculate that this is
a self-reinforcing effect and, perhaps, that a reverse on one side would precipitate a reverse on
the other.
Fuel costs are of huge importance to airline companies, as minimizing them and checking
their growth is one of the keys to profitability in that industry. Consequently, newer aircraft are
almost invariably more efficient than previous generations. Shipping is similarly situated vis a
vis fuel costs; lower costs are a clear benefit to the operators. Efficiency gains are realized
through larger ships, which ship a unit of cargo at a vastly lower energy intensity than would be
the case on smaller ships. In addition, ships with the luxury of time can gain 20% efficiency
gains for a 10% reduction in speed. Greater numbers of aircraft and sizes of ships have serious
land use implications. Airports are being built and expanded to handle the traffic, which in the
meantime is increasingly congesting airspace. The larger ships being built these days require vast
projects to accommodate them, including dredging, cutting of shipping channels, redesign of
harbors, and maybe even modification of canals. For the moment, the largest ships can only ply
the waters between the few harbors that can accommodate them.
Alternate fuels for aircraft are unlikely, barring a sufficiently robust scheme of CO2
emission regulation. Hydrogen is simply not energy dense enough to be compelling at this time.
Improved high bypass turbofans promise future efficiency gains with much more certainty.
Shipping has many small advances that together could constitute respectable gains, such as
various forms of drag reduction. I’ve also read that sails (or similar windpower) may make a
comeback on the high seas shipping lanes. Some of the most exciting developments are taking
place in the racing and cruising yacht scene, particularly the advent of wing sails which allow
dead simple sail handling and unmatched close hauling. These, like slow steaming, are only as
useful as the timetables allowed them. The turnover time on capital associated with shipping will
have to grow, but that cost can be borne better than the cost of what would otherwise be emitted.
If all these efficiencies reduce costs to the extent that a rebound effect is realized, then further
measures must be considered to reduce demand for these services, like perhaps localized vertical
integration of supply chains.