Professional Documents
Culture Documents
August 2020
Reinforcing
renewables
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CRISIL ViewCube
ViewCube is a compilation of sector views expressed during CRISIL’s webinars.
These include CRISIL’s own views, that of stakeholders, and those emanating from a poll done during the webinar.
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Contents
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Section 1
Our view
• Government support needed to improve competitiveness of the domestic solar manufacturing industry
• Though new tender structures improve quality of power, higher tariff required to maintain similar returns
• The sector will need estimated investments of Rs 1.4-1.5 lakh crore over the next five years
• Conducive regulatory environment ensuring relative stability in cash flow, amidst the pandemic
• Refinancing of Rs 60,000–70,000 crore of renewable debt can free up capital for growth
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Policy clarity, low base and milestone period to drive growth
Nascent period Peak addition period Policy rehaul and Milestone period
uncertainty period
16 GW 24 GW 27 GW 56 GW 64 GW 79 GW 113 GW
Increased focus on investment; share Slowdown due to policy December 2022
National Solar Mission launched; first batches under milestone; healthy
of solar energy begins to rise changes, renegotiations and
NTPC; SECI was founded substantially, led by government push pipeline
pandemic-led restrictions
and fall in capital cost
Note: Installed base is only for solar and wind energy (excludes other renewables)
Source: MNRE, CRISIL Research
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Low module prices, efficient plant design support lower solar tariffs
Tariff drop aided by falling capital cost Module pricing remains a huge silver lining, despite duty
Rs / unit
FY15 6.53 $ per Watt-peak) Safeguard
China
changes Safeguard
0.80 duty
FY16 5.20 0.70 subsidy duty
implemented
0.70
policy maintained
@25% Rate
FY17 4.55 falls to at ~15%
0.60 0.65
20%
FY18 2.97 Bhadla 0.50
0.18–0.20
0.49
0.40 0.32 0.34
FY19 2.68 0.29
0.27 0.16-0.18
0.30 0.22 0.21
0.33
New tenders 0.14-0.16
FY20 2.90 0.20 0.27
Utilisation levels from rising base of newer projects aiding PLF Regulatory changes
Note: The rate of 10% for basic customs duty has been used to depict a scenario; imposition of the duty and the actual rate are yet to be decided by the government
Source: SECI, MNRE, industry, CRISIL Research
Negative impact on sector Neutral impact on sector Positive impact on sector
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Site availability, delayed infra to keep wind tariffs from dropping
Tariffs inching up again, range bound at Rs 2.8-3.0 per unit Capital cost to remain stable
Rs / unit
Peak
FY15 4.8 demand; Change in Covid-19 Increased
good bidding led lower demand &
phase for mechanism additions new tech
FY16 4.5 OEMs
FY17 3.5
PLF Regulatory
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 changes Concentration of capacities leading to congested infra
PLF (%)*
Utilisation levels from increasing base of newer
projects aiding PLF
Rajasthan: 4,300 MW
Mainly in Barmer and Jaisalmer
35-38% Type I wind sites
Gujarat: 7,492 MW
28-32% Rann of Kutch region; select sites in
Type II wind sites Jamnagar, Porbandar, Morbi, Bhavnagar
Newer projects in Surendranagar
Time and cost overruns
5-10%
Karnataka: 4,791 MW
Project delays costing money Andhra Pradesh: 4,092 MW
Connectivity and terrain key constraints in ghat area Capacity located in Tamil Nadu:
9,304 MW
Note: *PLF at hub height greater than 100 m Mostly in Tirunelveli, Nilgiris, Erode,
Source: SECI, MNRE, industry, CRISIL Research Coimbatore and Tiruppur
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Domestic module makers less competitive than global leaders
Cost comparison between typical players in China and India
Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Cell Module China India
$80–100 crore 0.24-0.26
$20–25 crore 1-3%
Cent / W 10-13% Mark-up
0.20-0.22 0-2%
0.17-0.19 SG&A
Competitive China India 15% 7-10% 2-5% R&D
comparison 3-5% 1-3%
2-4% 12-15% Safeguard
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New business models warrant higher tariff to maintain returns
Power dispatchability to be the new focus area for upcoming renewable energy tenders
Peak power supply Round the clock Bundled – Thermal and renewable
Note: RE: Renewable energy; CUF: Capacity utilisation factor; For simplification of comparison, above scenarios are based on the assumption of standard 500 MW rated project plant capacity
Source: SECI, MNRE, industry, company filings, tender documents, CRISIL Research
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Global investors – A key pillar of support for funding needs
Investments of Rs 1.4-1.5 lakh crore required over the next three years
Rs 1.4–1.5 lakh crore
Rs 1.2–1.3 lakh crore
4% Rs 1.1–1.2 lakh crore 20-25%
3%
21% 15-20% Green bonds
3%
19% 15-20% Foreign funds
17% Internal accruals
57% 40-45% FII & banks
42%
Sustained investor confidence key to meeting future needs; domestic lenders remain cautious
Domestic debt
Policy + New
instruments
Internal accrual
Global funding
(green bonds
and foreign funds)
Note: Estimates are based on publicly available data. Developer green bond issuances, equity investments pertaining to funding provided by global private equity, and sovereign funds to developers for
expansion have been considered; stake sales and acquisitions excluded
Source: SECI, MNRE, industry, company filings, CRISIL Research
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© 2020 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved.
Renewables replete with refinancing opportunities
• Infra investment trusts (InvITs) and structures such as co-obligor groups seen as key sources of refinancing
• Increasing scale, diversity and track record make renewables sector conducive to refinancing, with comfort on cash flow stability
• Refinancing can free up banking lines and create room for debt capital for implementation of projects
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CRISIL’s experience: Solar modules – Building track record of stable
power generation
Study undertaken for assessment of technology risk
• CRISIL has assessed a portfolio of over 7.5 GW solar projects
• 75 projects chosen with an operational track of over three full years (individual projects having CODs between 2011 and 2017)
• Unbiased sampling across multiple states, module manufacturers and developers
• 330 instances studied overall (a project’s performance for a year counted as one instance, represented by one dot in the chart below)
1%
31%
• Only stray incidences where
-1% 11%
performance was lower than
8% 3% from P90 PLF
-3%
1%
-5%
Source: CRISIL Ratings Indicates % of instances between -3% & -5%
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CRISIL’s experience: Performance losses1 of solar assets within
modelled range and around the 2018 mark
Annual performance losses1 stable around 0.6% overall
0
0.63% 0.60%
>1.2%,
25%
• 70% of instances showed annual performance loss of
0 <0.8% (modelled/ expected & around typical loss warranted
2020 by suppliers for an asset over a 25-year life span)
0 0.8-
1.2%, study 0-0.4%,
7% 0.4- 59% • Average at 0.60-0.65%; within the range observed in a
• Performance of vintage projects seen within the same range of overall portfolio assessed,
indicating that older projects are also not showing signs of accelerated performance loss
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Payment behaviour of state discoms remains a key risk
~40% of industry’s operational private capacity exposed Variability/ volatility seen in payment profile of
to weaker discoms (payment period of over six months) state discoms
Percentage of operational private Payment track record across leading states (months)
capacity mix in overall renewables
15 Seen in CRISIL-rated projects
with respective state discoms (as
AP
of March 2020)
RJ
Rajasthan
7%
KA
5
MP
Gujarat Madhya Pradesh
10% 5% MH
GJ
0
Maharashtra Average payment
8% period Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
Telangana >6 months Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra
5% Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan
3-6 months
Karnataka Andhra Pradesh
8% <3 months
10%
• Average of multiple state discoms in a particular state (if applicable)
Tamil • Payments made by Andhra Pradesh discoms in December 2019/ January
Nadu • Central counterparties: NTPC (and 2020 have been amortised at full tariff
11%
NVVN), SECI & PTC • Payment delay/ track record means months of receivables standing in
• Additional 8-10% of capacities would March 2020 (similar to balance sheet method of calculation)
Source: MNRE, CEA, CRISIL Ratings be in captive and PSU balance sheets Source: CRISIL Ratings
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Increasing proportion of central counterparties lowering payment risk
Increasing footprint of central counterparties
Note: Represents footprint among privately owned capacities (5-7 GW of capacities are owned by PSUs & government entities)
Source: CRISIL Ratings, MNRE annual report
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Rs 60,000–70,000 crore of refinancing potential in the next 3 fiscals
^ Typical time frame for stabilisation of project; this excludes 12-14 GW of capacities that would be commissioned in FY23; 7-8 GW capacities present with PSUs and governments
Banks are aligned to refinance operational projects with a track record. Growing scale provides healthy opportunity to free up invested debt capital
Through benefits of diversification and cash flow related covenants, healthy proportion of amber and red discom exposure can also be part of the
refinancing pool
Refinancing has also increased in the ‘AA’ rated category, with over Rs 17,000 crore of debt refinanced (domestic / green bonds) in the past three
fiscals (vis-à-vis less than Rs 8,000 crore over fiscals 2014 to 2016)
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InvITs can support refinancing and aid capital unlocking
Regulations enable InvITs balance equity returns and debt service cushions
Healthy equity IRR of 12-14% possible with average DSCR of ~1.5 times in CRISIL’s assessed structures
Size of bubble indicates size of debt (Rs crore per MW)
Key concessions supporting suitability of
15.0%
InvITs
14.5%
4.4
• Relaxations around number of investors
Better reporting and corporate governance statutes, along with equity returns, enable InvITs to attract global equity players
such as pension and sovereign funds, and further aid equity capital unlocking
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Summary
Growth outlook: Strong pipeline of auctioned capacity to drive capacity base to 113 GW by March 2022
Tendering activity: New bids such as round the clock and peak power supply, to increase, at higher tariff of ~Rs 4/ unit
Payment: Increase in share of reliable central counterparties seen as a silver lining, with their share expected to rise to ~29% of overall private
capacities by March 2022
Key risks: Weak credit profile and payment track record of state discoms, dependence on imported modules from China and grid-balancing
cost with increasing proportion
Refinancing potential: Rs.60,000–70,000 crore of debt over the next three fiscals
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Section 2
Their view
• Over-leverage is an important issue, and hence, long-term investors must be disciplined to ensure stable
Pawan Agrawal • Investors remain cautious, however, due to policy changes around customs duties on modules and cells
Chief Financial Officer • Customs duties may be passed on to discoms as change in law and, thus, change in tariffs remain key
Azure Power monitorables for global investors
• Currently, equity investors have shown higher interest in commissioned assets, rather than under-
construction assets, due to the low financing and stabilisation risk involved
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Excerpts from panel discussion held at the webinar (2/3)
On availability of debt capital in the near term On discoms and hybrid tariffs
• Currently, banks and financial institutions are facing risk aversion from • There is a certain premium associated with hybrids as they fit in quite
investors, due to policy changes related to moratorium and exposure to efficiently in the load management of discoms
risky sectors
• Scheduling challenges are mitigated substantially under hybrids
• However, risk perception for renewables is generally lower, as the
industry has demonstrated stable operational performance and low
• Thus, back down of discoms’ own thermal power plants can be planned
better
degradation across various vintage assets
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Excerpts from panel discussion held at the webinar (3/3)
On scaling up of domestic module manufacturing On payment quality record of central counterparties
• Self-reliance is a welcome step, given India’s large dependency on • Owing to the pandemic, all discoms are making payments to central
imports of modules from other countries counterparties with a slight delay
• However, domestic manufacturing should be carried out in a careful • However, with capacities ramping up, sustained delay in payments from
and calibrated manner to avoid disruptions in the value chain state discoms will be a key monitorable
• •
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Section 3
Poll view
66%
80% 78%
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Results of survey conducted during the webinar* (2/2)
Q4. How confident are you that central Q2. Do you expect the pace of Q3. Do you think the newer
counterparties will be able to maintain equity inflows in renewables to implementation models such as peak
their current payment track record over sustain over the next two years? power supply and round the clock will
the next three years? gain traction over the next 12-18
months?
12%
72%
59% 81%
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List of CRISIL-rated companies in the renewables sector
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List of CRISIL-rated companies in the renewables sector (2/3)
Hinduja Renewables Energy Pvt Ltd Koppal Solar Power Projects Pvt Ltd Orchid Renewable Powertech Pvt Ltd
Hinduja Renewables Pvt Ltd KSD Zonne Energie LLP Ostro Anantapur Pvt Ltd
Hiraco Renewable Energy Pvt Ltd KVR Constructions Ostro Jaisalmer Pvt Ltd
Hyderabad Chemical Products Pvt Ltd Latur Renewable Pvt Ltd Ostro Madhya Wind Pvt Ltd
IEnergy Wind Farms (Theni) Pvt Ltd Leap Green Energy Pvt Ltd Ostro Urja Wind Pvt Ltd
Impex India-Dehradun Lexicon Vanijya Pvt Ltd Palace Solar Energy Pvt Ltd
Inox Renewables Ltd Lotus Clean Power Venture Pvt Ltd Panama Wind Energy Godawari Pvt Ltd
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List of CRISIL-rated companies in the renewables sector (3/3)
Renew Agni Power Pvt Ltd Sai Achyuth Energy Pvt Ltd Sree Jnanakshi Renewable Energy Pvt Ltd
ReNew Solar Energy (TN) Pvt Ltd Salasar Green Energy Pvt Ltd Sri Vinayaga Green Power Generation Pvt Ltd
SunBorne Energy Gujarat One Pvt Ltd
ReNew Wind Energy (AP) Pvt Ltd Sand Land Real Estates Pvt Ltd
Sunkon Energy Pvt Ltd
ReNew Wind Energy (Jath) Pvt Ltd Sanjay D Ghodawat Swelect Energy Systems Ltd
Renew Wind Energy (Karnataka 3) Pvt Ltd Santhana Lakshmi Renewable Energy Pvt Ltd Tarun Kiran Bhoomi Pvt Ltd
Renew Wind Energy (Karnataka 4) Pvt Ltd Santhiram Wind Power Pvt Ltd Tata Power Renewable Energy Ltd
Sapphire Industrial Infrastructures Pvt Ltd Torrent Solargen Ltd
Renew Wind Energy (Maharashtra) Pvt Ltd Tri Solar Pvt Ltd
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