Task #4.

Let us introduce Final Model for NYC.

Sales=50.85−7.574 Price ice cream∈the store + 4.246 Price maincompetitior s−0.172 Day . Week+ 2.546 Weekend dummy +0.

* Sales in Millions of cups.

We decided to predict sales for the first ten observations. On the represented table actual and predicted
values of Sales may be compared. It can be concluded that for these observations the deviation
represents on average 6% in absolute value.

ABS
Forcaste Deviatio Deviatio
Actual d n (%) n (in %)
53,9 49,62 8% 8%
46,35 49,02 -6% 6%
41,31 48,18 -17% 17%
47,65 50,46 -6% 6%
49,75 48,48 3% 3%
52,46 51,38 2% 2%
49,52 51,9 -5% 5%
49,41 48,19 2% 2%
53,45 50,05 6% 6%
52,12 50,16 4% 4%

Mean Deviation 6%

Let us introduce Final Model for LA & Chicago.

Sales=19 .020−3.551 LAdummy −1.087 Price❑ + 3.066 Price main competitior s + 0.072 Day . Week+ 0.938 Weekend du

We decided to predict sales for the first ten observations. On the represented table actual and predicted
values of Sales may be compared. It can be concluded that for these observations the deviation
represents on average 9% in absolute value.
 ABS
Forcaste Deviatio Deviatio
Actual d n n (in %)

23,66 22,69 4% 4%
22,47 21,74 3% 3%
21,39 21,84 -2% 2%
27,39 22,69 17% 17%
20,48 22,35 -9% 9%
25,42 22,66 11% 11%
22,82 21,76 5% 5%
19,29 21,63 -12% 12%
23,47 22,09 6% 6%
17,83 22,06 -24% 24%

Mean Deviation 9%

Task #5

Did the promotional campaign work? Explain using the results of your analysis.

Let us analyze the efficiency of promotional campaign for each particular model.

 As for the first model, which includes all variables, it can be concluded that the promo definitely
worked. To explain, the estimate is statistically significant (P-value = 000 < 1%), and the effect
equals to 2.427. In another words, promotional campaign resulted in 2.427 additional millions
of units in sales.
 As for the second model, which includes only NYC, it can be concluded that the promo definitely
worked there as well. To explain, the estimate is statistically significant (P-value = 000 < 1%),
and the effect equals to 1.333. In another words, promotional campaign resulted in 1  333 000
additional millions of units in sales.
 As for the second model, which includes LA and Chicago, it can be concluded that the promo
definitely worked there as well. To explain, the estimate is statistically significant (P-value = 000
< 1%), and the effect equals to 2.427. In another words, promotional campaign resulted in 2.427
additional millions of units in sales.

In conclusion, each model constitutes that promotional campaign positively effected sales. In fact,
estimates were statistically significant.