HSCI 6263 Biostatistics for Clinical and Translational Research

BIOSTAT ASSIGNMENT 1: PROBABILITIES AND POWER ANALYSIS

Biostat Assignments provide opportunities for you to develop hypotheses, to calculate statistics,
and to interpret output and summary tables. Each assignment focuses on one or two of the
statistical concepts discussed in the weekly readings. Biostat Assignment 1 focuses on
probabilities and power analysis. There are 10 questions; each question is worth 1 point. Submit
your completed assignment through the link provided on Blackboard.

NAME: ________________________________

PART ONE: PROBABILITIES

A class of 40 students completed a survey on what pets they like. The choices were Cats, Dogs
and Birds. Figure 1.1 shows the survey results in a Venn diagram. Question 1-6 asks you to
calculate the probabilities based on these results.

There are a couple of resources available to help you with these problems – one is Chapter 4 in
White (2020) and the other is the Practice Problem set 2B for this week. Both resources have
definitions and rules related to probabilities. In particular, you will be needed to refer to the
Addition and Multiplication rules for calculating the combination of events. Look for cue words
in the questions to help you decide which rule to apply. As a final note, pay close attention to
what music items the questions are referring to when calculating the probability. Not all
questions are the same!

Figure 1.1 Pets survey

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HSCI 6263 Biostatistics for Clinical and Translational Research

1) Based on Figure 1.1, calculate the following probabilities: (Show your work and report
proportions out to forth decimal places.)
a) Students who like Cats, which is p(Cats).

b) Students who like Cats and Birds, which is p(Cats ∩ Birds).

c) Students who like Cats, Birds and Dogs, which is p(Cats ∩ Birds ∩ Dogs).

2) If one student is chosen at random, what is the probability that the student will like Cats or
Birds (i.e., p(Cats ∪ Birds))?

3) What is the probability of liking Birds given that a student already liked Cats (i.e., p(Birds |
Cats))?

4) Based on the information provided, we can calculate the conditional probability of liking
Dogs given that a student already liked Cats is equal to 0.2857 (i.e p(Dogs | Cats)= 0.2857).
Using the Multiplication Rule, what is the probability that a person liked both Dogs and Cats?

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HSCI 6263 Biostatistics for Clinical and Translational Research

5) If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability that student with prefer ONLY Dogs?

6) If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability that person will prefer ONLY Birds?

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HSCI 6263 Biostatistics for Clinical and Translational Research

PART TWO: POWER ANALYSIS

Nutritionists at George Washington University want to compare two different diets for a group of
diabetic patients. Investigators plan to test the null hypothesis that the mean difference in blood
glucose (mg/dL) for patients following Diet 1 will be the same as those patients following Diet 2.
The research hypothesis states the mean difference in blood glucose will be different between the
two diet groups. Investigators plan to draw their random sample of diabetic patients from the
Washington DC area. Recruited patients will be randomly assigned to one of two diets. A fasting
blood glucose test will be conducted on each patient at the beginning of the study and again 12
weeks later.

The biostatistician on the project wants to conduct a power analysis to determine the sample size
needed to detect group differences. The standard deviation of blood glucose distribution for Diet
Group 1 is reported to be 4.5 mg/dL; the standard deviation of blood glucose distribution for Diet
Group 2 is reported to be to be 8.2 mg/dL. The biostatistician wants to estimate the number of
subjects needed in each group (assuming equal sized groups) and decides to run an analysis for a
two-sample t-Test at a significance level of 0.05 for a two-tailed test. In order to create a
thorough recommendation for the study team, the analysis is run at four levels of power (80%,
85%, 90% and 95%).

Follow the instructions provided on Blackboard to complete Questions 1 and 2. A link to the
online power calculator is also available on Blackboard.

1) Calculate the effect sizes and fill in the results in Table 2.1 (below) accordingly.

ANSWER:
Table 2.1: Sample size estimations for two-group comparison

Mean Difference in Blood Mean Difference in Blood

Glucose for Diet Group 1 Glucose for Diet Group 2 Effect Size
(SD = 4.5 mg/dL) (SD = 8.2 mg/dL) (Cohen’s d)

5 mg/dL 9 mg/dL

4 mg/dL 9 mg/dL

3 mg/dL 9 mg/dL

2 mg/dL 9 mg/dL

1 mg/dL 9 mg/dL

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HSCI 6263 Biostatistics for Clinical and Translational Research

2) Carry over the effect sizes that you calculated in Table 2.1 and put them in the first column
of Table 2.2 (below). Calculate the sample size estimations for each effect size and level of
statistical power. Fill in the results accordingly.

ANSWER:
Table 2.2: Sample size estimations for two-group comparison*

Statistical Power

Effect Size 80% 85% 90% 95%

* Numbers within each cell represent the sample size per group

3) Refer to Table 2.2 and describe what patterns you see in the sample size values. What
happens to sample size as you read across a row (i.e. as statistical power changes)? What
happens as you read down a column (i.e. as effect sizes change)?

4) Choose two cells from Table 2.2 (from two different columns and two different rows) and
interpret those values. Remember that the purpose of this power analysis is to provide an
estimate for the sample size of the study. So in your interpretation, it is the number in the cell
that reflects how many people would need to be recruited per group given the power and the
effect size (column and row respectively).