❳⑩❈ ❙❯❻❚ ❚❍➮◆● ❑➊

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚&

✣➔ ◆➤♥❣✱ ✷✵✶✾

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✴✹✵

❈❤"#♥❣ ✺✳ ()❝ ❧",♥❣ -❤❛♠ 01

✶✳ ,-❝ ❧01♥❣ ✤✐➸♠

✶✳✶ ✣6♥❤ ♥❣❤➽❛
✲ ❈❤♦ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } +, +-♥❣ +❤➸ ❝0 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤3✐ ♣❤4 +❤✉5❝ ✈➔♦
+❤❛♠ 93 θ ❝❤:❛ ❜✐➳+✳ ❑❤✐ ✤0✱ ♠5+ ❤➔♠ ✭+❤3♥❣ ❦➯✮ θ̂ = θ̂(X1 , ..., Xn ) ✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔ ♠5+
!❝ ❧ $♥❣ ❝G❛ +❤❛♠ 93 θ✳
✲ ❱I✐ ♠5+ ♠➝✉ ❣✐→ +KL ❝4 +❤➸ {x1 , x2 , ..., xn } +❛ +❤✉ ✤:D❝ ♠5+ ❣✐→ +KL ❝4 +❤➸ ❝G❛ θ̂✳
❑❤✐ ✤0✱ ❣✐→ +KL θ̂(x1 , ..., xn ) ✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔ !❝ ❧ $♥❣ ✤✐➸♠ ❝G❛ +❤❛♠ 93 θ ❞N❛ +K➯♥ ♠➝✉ ❣✐→
+KL {x1 , x2 , ..., xn }✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✴✹✵

✶✳✷ :❤➙♥ ❧♦↕✐ 0-❝ ❧01♥❣

✲ OI❝ ❧:D♥❣ θ̂ = θ̂(X1 , ..., Xn ) ✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔ !❝ ❧ $♥❣ ❦❤-♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝G❛ +❤❛♠ 93 θ ♥➳✉
E(θ̂) = θ✳
❚K♦♥❣ +K:Q♥❣ ❤D♣ ♥❣:D❝ ❧↕✐ +❤➻ +❛ ❣E✐ θ̂ ✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔ !❝ ❧ $♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ✈➔ ❣✐→ +KL b(θ) =
E(θ̂) − θ ✤/ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝0❛ !❝ ❧ $♥❣✳
✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔
✲ OI❝ ❧:D♥❣ θ̂ = θ̂(X1 , ..., Xn ) ✤:D❝ ❣E✐ ❧➔ !❝ ❧ $♥❣ ❦❤-♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ 2✐➺♠ ❝➟♥ ❝G❛ +❤❛♠
93 θ ♥➳✉
lim E(θ̂) = θ.
n→+∞

✲ ❈❤♦ θ̂1 ✈➔ θ̂2 ❧➔ ❤❛✐ :I❝ ❧:D♥❣ ❦❤T♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝G❛ +❤❛♠ 93 θ✳ ❚❛ ♥0✐ :I❝ ❧:D♥❣ θ̂1 ❤✐➺✉
5✉↔ ❤7♥ θ̂2 ♥➳✉ D(θ̂1 ) < D(θ̂2 )✳
:I❝ ❧:D♥❣
✲ OI❝ ❧:D♥❣ θ̂ ❝G❛ θ ❧➔ :I❝ ❧:D♥❣ ❦❤T♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ✈➔ ❝0 ♣❤:V♥❣ 9❛✐ D(θ̂) ❜➨ ♥❤➜+ ✤:D❝
❣E✐ ❧➔ !❝ ❧ $♥❣ 282 ♥❤➜2✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 !❝ ❧$%♥❣ ❦❤*♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ ./✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✈➔ ♣❤$6♥❣ 7❛✐
✣:♥❤ ❧;✿ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝,❛ ♠/0 01♥❣ 0❤➸ ❝3 E(X) = µ, D(X) = σ2✳ ●✐↔ 78
{X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝,❛ X ✳ ❑❤✐ ✤3✿
1 Pn
✐✮ X = Xi ❧➔ ?@❝ ❧?A♥❣ ❦❤C♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ µ✳
n i=1
1 P n
✐✐✮ S 2 = (Xi − X)2 ❧➔ ?@❝ ❧?A♥❣ ❦❤C♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ σ2 ✳
n − 1 i=1
◆❤➟♥ ①➨.✿ ❈3 0❤➸ ❝❤E♥❣ ♠✐♥❤ ✤?A❝ F➡♥❣✿
n
n−1 2 1X
E(S∗2 ) = σ ✈@✐ S∗2 = (Xi − X̄)2
n n
i=1

✣✐➲✉ ♥➔② ❝3 ♥❣❤➽❛ S∗2 ❧➔ ?@❝ ❧?A♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ✭❦❤C♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ 0✐➺♠ ❝➟♥✮ ❝,❛ σ2✱ ❞♦ ✤3 ♥3
✓❦❤C♥❣ ✤?A❝ ❝❤R♥✔ ❧➔♠ ♣❤?U♥❣ 7❛✐ ♠➝✉✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✹✴✹✵

!❝ ❧$%♥❣ ❦❤*♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ .➾ ❧➺

✣:♥❤ ❧;✿ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝3 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤W✐ ❇❡F♥♦✉❧❧✐ ✈@✐ 0❤❛♠ 7W p✳ ●R✐
(X1 , X2 , ..., Xn ) ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝,❛ X ✳ ❑❤✐ ✤3✿
X1 + X2 + ... + Xn
P̂ =
n

❧➔ ♠/0 ?@❝ ❧?A♥❣ ❦❤C♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ 0❤❛♠ 7W p✳

B ♥❣❤➽❛✿ ◆➳✉ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ A ❝3 0➾ ❧➺ p ❝❤?❛ ❜✐➳0✱ ✈➔ 0F♦♥❣ ♠➝✉ ✤✐➲✉ 0F❛ ❦➼❝❤ 0❤?@❝ n ❝3 k
❝→ 0❤➸ ♠❛♥❣ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ A✱ 0❤➻ 0➛♥ 7✉➜0 fn = k/n ❧➔ ♠/0 ?@❝ ❧?A♥❣ ❦❤C♥❣ ❝❤➺❝❤ ❝,❛ p✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✺✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞G ✶
✲ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝- ❦/ ✈1♥❣ µ ✈➔ ♣❤45♥❣ 6❛✐ σ2 ❝❤4❛ ❜✐➳8✳ ✣➸ 4<❝ ❧4>♥❣
❝❤♦ µ 2
✈➔ σ ♥❣4?✐ 8❛ 8✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤ ✤✐➲✉ 8B❛ ♠➝✉ ❦➼❝❤ 8❤4<❝ ✷✵✵ ✈➔ 8➼♥❤ ✤4>❝ 8B✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✈➔
♣❤45♥❣ 6❛✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ ♠➝✉✿
x̄ = 125, 8; s2 = 2, 76
❑❤✐ ✤-✱ 8❛ ❝- 8❤➸ ①❡♠ µ ≈ 125, 8 ✈➔ σ 2 ≈ 2, 76✳
✲ ✣➸ 4<❝ ❧4>♥❣ 8➾ ❧➺ p ❝P 8B✐ Q♥❣ ❤R ❝❤♦ S♥❣ ❝P ✈✐➯♥ ❆✱ ♥❣4?✐ 8❛ ❦❤↔♦ 6→8 ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥
4000 ♥❣4?✐ 8❤➻ ❝- ✷✻✹✵ ♥❣4?✐ Q♥❣ ❤R S♥❣ ❝P ✈✐➯♥ ♥➔②✳ ◆❤4 ✈➟②✱ 8❛ ❝- 8❤➸ ①❡♠ 8➾ ❧➺ Q♥❣
❤R S♥❣ ❝P ✈✐➯♥ ❆ ①➜♣ ①➾✿
p ≈ 2640/4000 = 0, 66

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✻✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 X θ
{X1 , X2 , ..., Xn }
L = L(X1 , ..., Xn ) U = U (X1 , ..., Xn )
α ∈ (0, 1)

P (L < θ < U ) = 1 − α.

(L, U ) θ 1−α
α U −L

(L, U ) θ
1−α

1−α
α1 , α2 ∈ (0, 1) α1 + α2 = α

Gn = Gn (X1 , ..., Xn , θ)
Gn Gn
n→∞ θ Gn
θ
a b P (Gn ≤ a) = α1 P (Gn < b) = 1 − α2
a < Gn (X1 , ..., Xn , θ) < b θ

L, U

P (L < θ < U ) ≥ 1 − α.

α1 = 0 α2 = 0

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ✷✳✷ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ❦➻ ✈0♥❣ ❦❤✐ ✤➣ ❜✐➳( ♣❤67♥❣ 8❛✐
❇➔✐ (♦→♥✳ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝-❛ ♠01 12♥❣ 1❤➸ ❝4 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤7✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ 2 ) ✈:✐

µ ❝❤;❛ ❜✐➳1 ✈➔ σ2 ✤➣ ❜✐➳1✳ ❚➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ µ ✈:✐ ♠E❝ F ♥❣❤➽❛ α✳
●>✐ ?✳ ◆➳✉ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝-❛ X 1❤➻

X −µ
Z= √ ∼ N (0; 1).
σ/ n

✲ ❱:✐ α ∈ (0; 1)✱ ❝❤M♥ α1 = α2 = α/2 ✈➔ zα/2 = Φ−1 (1 − α2 ) ❧➔ ❣✐→ (@A (B✐ ❤↕♥ ♠E❝

α/2 ❝-❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤7✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ 1➢❝✱ ❣✐↔✐ ❜➜1 ♣❤;P♥❣ 1Q➻♥❤✿

σ σ
−zα/2 < Z < zα/2 ⇔ X − zα/2 √ < µ < X + zα/2 √
n n

1❛ ✤;S❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ✤7✐ ①E♥❣✳

✲ ◆➳✉ ❝❤M♥ α1 = 0 ❤♦➦❝ α2 = 0✳ ▲W❝ ♥➔② 1❛ 1❤❛② zα/2 ❜X✐ zα ✈➔ 1❤✉ ✤;S❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥

❝➟② ♠01 ♣❤➼❛✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✵✴✹✵

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✶✴✹✵

❛✳ ❑➳( D✉↔
❱:✐ ✤0 1✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✿
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ✤7✐ ①E♥❣ ❝-❛ µ✿
σ σ
x − zα/2 √ < µ < x + zα/2 √ ,
n n

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② 17✐ ✤❛ ❝-❛ µ✿

σ
µ < x + zα √ .
n
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② 17✐ 1❤✐➸✉ ❝-❛ µ✿
σ
µ > x − zα √ .
n

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✷✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❱➼ ❞# ✷
❑❤"✐ ❧%&♥❣ ✭❦❣✮ ❝-❛ ♠01 1❤✐➳1 ❜4 ❝5 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤"✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ2 ) ✈;✐ σ = 0.2 ✭❦❣✮✳ ❈❤>♥
♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✷✺ 1❤✐➳1 ❜4 ♥❣%C✐ 1❛ 1➼♥❤ ✤%&❝ 1F✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ♠➝✉ x = 65, 1 ✭❦❣✮✳ ❱;✐ ✤0 1✐♥ ❝➟②
✾✺✪ ❤➣② 1➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ✭✤"✐ ①Q♥❣✮ ❝❤♦ ❦❤"✐ ❧%&♥❣ 1F✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝-❛ 1❤✐➳1 ❜4 ♥➔②✳ ❈❤♦
❜✐➳1 z0,025 = 1, 96✳
●✐↔✐✳
✲ ❈→❝ $% ✤➦❝ ()*♥❣ ♠➝✉✿ n = 25; x̄ = 65, 1✳
✲ ✣3 (✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96✳
✲ ❙❛✐ $% *9❝ ❧*;♥❣✿
σ 0, 2
ε = zα/2 √ = 1, 96 ∗ √ = 0, 0784
n 25
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ❦❤%✐ ❧*;♥❣ ()✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ µ ❝C❛ (❤✐➳( ❜E ♥➔②✿

x̄ − ε < µ < x̄ + ε ⇔ 65, 02 < µ < 65, 18

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✸✴✹✵

❜✳ ❱➜♥ ✤➲ ❝/ ♠➝✉
❚H ❝I♥❣ (❤J❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ µ (❛ (❤➜② )➡♥❣ $❛✐ $% ❝C❛ *9❝ ❧*;♥❣ |x − µ| ❜➨ ❤N♥
σ
❤♦➦❝ ❜➡♥❣ zα/2 √ ✳
n
✲ ❙❛✐ $% *9❝ ❧*;♥❣✿
σ
ε = zα/2 √
n
✲ ✣✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ❤↕♥ ❝❤➳✿ ε<∆ ✈9✐ ∆>0 ❝❤♦ ()*9❝✳

σ
ε = zα/2 √ < ∆
n

✲ ●✐↔✐ ❜➜( ♣❤*N♥❣ ()➻♥❤ (❤❡♦ n✿

2
zα/2 σ

n> .
∆

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✹✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞# ✸
❚FT ❧↕✐ ✈;✐ ❱➼ ❞W ✷ ♥➳✉ ②➯✉ ❝➛✉ Y❛✐ Y" %;❝ ❧%&♥❣ ❦❤Z♥❣ ✈%&1 [✉→ ✵✱✵✺ 1❤➻ ✈;✐ ✤0 1✐♥ ❝➟②
✾✽✪ 1❛ ❝➛♥ ❝❤>♥ 1"✐ 1❤✐➸✉ ❜❛♦ ♥❤✐➯✉ 1❤✐➳1 ❜4 ✤➸ ❦❤↔♦ Y→1❄ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳1 z0,01 = 2, 326✳
●✐↔✐✳
✲ ❙❛✐ $% *9❝ ❧*;♥❣✿
σ
ε = zα/2 √
n
✲ ✣✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ❤↕♥ ❝❤➳✿ ε < ∆ = 0, 05✳
✲ ❙✉② )❛✿ 2
zα/2 σ

n> .
∆
✲ ✣3 (✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 98 ⇒ α = 0, 2; zα/2 = z0,01 = 2, 326✳
❉♦ ✤W✿
2, 326 ∗ 0, 2 2
 
n> = 86, 56
0, 05
❱➟②✱ ❦➼❝❤ (❤*9❝ ♠➝✉ (%✐ (❤✐➸✉ ❝➛♥ ❦❤↔♦ $→(✿ n = 87
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✺✴✹✵
CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ✷✳✸ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ )✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ❦➻ ✈1♥❣ ❦❤✐ ❝❤2❛ ❜✐➳) ♣❤27♥❣ 8❛✐
❇➔✐ )♦→♥✿ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝-❛ ♠01 12♥❣ 1❤➸ ❝4 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤7✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ 2 ) ✈:✐

µ ✈➔ σ2 ❝❤<❛ ❜✐➳1✳ ❚➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ µ ✈:✐ ✤0 1✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✳
●=✐ >✳ ◆➳✉ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝-❛ X 1❤➻

X −µ
T = √ ∼ Tn−1
S/ n

✲ ❱:✐ ♠I❝ J ♥❣❤➽❛ α✱ ❝❤M♥ α1 = α2 = α/2 ✈➔ ❧➜② ❣✐→ 1PQ tn−1;α/2 ❧➔ ❣✐→ )?@ )A✐ ❤↕♥ ❝-❛
♣❤➙♥ ♣❤7✐ Tn−1 ✱ 1❛ ✤<R❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ✤7✐ ①I♥❣✳
✲ ❈❤M♥ α1 = 0 ❤♦➦❝ α2 = 0✳ ▲V❝ ♥➔② 1❛ 1❤❛② tn−1;α/2 ❜W✐ tn−1;α ✈➔ 1❤✉ ✤<R❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣

1✐♥ ❝➟② ♠01 ♣❤➼❛✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✻✴✹✵

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✼✴✹✵

❑➳) C✉↔
❱:✐ ✤0 1✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✿
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② ✤7✐ ①I♥❣ ❝-❛ µ✿
s s
x − tn−1;α/2 √ < µ < x + tn−1;α/2 √ ,
n n

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② 17✐ ✤❛ ❝-❛ µ✿

s
µ < x + tn−1;α √ .
n

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ 1✐♥ ❝➟② 17✐ 1❤✐➸✉ ❝-❛ µ✿

s
x − tn−1;α √ < µ.
n

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✽✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ◆❤➟♥ ①➨&✿
✐✮ ❑❤✐ n > 30✿ tn−1;α/2 ≈ zα/2 ✳
✐✐✮ ❑❤✐ ❦➼❝❤ )❤*+❝ ♠➝✉ ❧+♥ ✭n > 30✮ )❤❡♦ ✤5♥❤ ❧6 ❣✐+✐ ❤↕♥ )9✉♥❣ )➙♠ ❦➳) <✉↔ )9➯♥ ✈➝♥

→♣ ❞C♥❣ ✤*D❝ ❞E )❤✐➳✉ ❣✐↔ )❤✐➳) ✈➲ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤H✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❝J❛ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X✳

❱➼ ❞+ ✹
▼!" ♠➝✉ ✶✻ ♣✐♥ ❞,♥❣ ❝❤♦ 1♠❛3"♣❤♦♥❡ ✤67❝ ❝❤8♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝:❛ ❝;♥❣ "② ❆ ❝> "✉?✐ "❤8
"3✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ "➼♥❤ "3➯♥ ♠➝✉ x = 24308 ✭❣✐D✮ ✈➔ ✤! ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ♠➝✉ s = 727 ✭❣✐D✮✳ ●✐↔ 1N
3➡♥❣ "✉?✐ "❤8 ♣✐♥ 1♠❛3"♣❤♦♥❡ ❝> ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤Q✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ❱S✐ ✤! "✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪✱ ❤➣② "➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣
"✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ "✉?✐ "❤8 "3✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝:❛ ♣✐♥ 1♠❛3"♣❤♦♥❡ ✤67❝ 1↔♥ ①✉➜" ❜]✐ ❝;♥❣ "② ❆✳ ❈❤♦
❜✐➳" t15;0,025 = 2, 1314✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✾✴✹✵

●✐↔✐✳ ❚❤❡♦ ❣✐↔ )❤✐➳)✿

n = 16; x̄ = 24308; s = 727

✣O )✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; tn−1;α/2 = t15;0,025 = 2, 1314
❙❛✐ SH✿
s 727
ε = tn−1;α/2 √ = 2, 1314 ∗ √ = 387, 382
n 16
❑❤♦↔♥❣ )✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ )✉T✐ )❤U )9✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝J❛ ♣✐♥ S♠❛9)♣❤♦♥❡✿

x̄ − ε < µ < x̄ + ε ⇔ 23920.618 < µ < 24695.382

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✵✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞+ ✺
◆➠♥❣ 1✉➜" ✭"↕✴❤❛✮ ❝:❛ ♠!" ❧♦↕✐ ❝➙② "3d♥❣ "✉➙♥ "❤❡♦ ❧✉➟" ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤Q✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ❍➣② "➻♠ 6S❝
❧67♥❣ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ ✤Q✐ ①f♥❣ ♥➠♥❣ 1✉➜" "3✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝:❛ ♠!" ❧♦↕✐ ❝➙② "3d♥❣ ♥➔② ✈S✐ ✤! "✐♥ ❝➟②
✾✺✪ "3➯♥ ❝g 1] ❜↔♥❣ 1Q ❧✐➺✉ ✤✐➲✉ "3❛ 1❛✉ ✤➙②✿
◆➠♥❣ 1✉➜"✭"↕✴❤❛✮ ✹✷✲✹✼ ✹✼✲✺✷ ✺✷✲✺✼ ✺✼✲✻✷ ✻✷✲✻✼
❙Q ✤✐➸♠ "❤✉ ❤♦↕❝❤ ✷ ✺ ✶✹ ✶✵ ✺
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳" z0,05 = 1, 645; z0,025 = 1, 96; z0,02 = 2, 054; z0,01 = 2, 326✳
●✐↔✐✳ ❉↕♥❣ )❤✉ ❣U♥✿

◆➠♥❣ S✉➜)✭)↕✴❤❛✮ ✹✹✱✺ ✹✾✱✺ ✺✹✱✺ ✺✾✱✺ ✻✹✱✺

❙H ✤✐➸♠ )❤✉ ❤♦↕❝❤ ✷ ✺ ✶✹ ✶✵ ✺

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✶✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❈→❝ #$ ✤➦❝ '()♥❣ ♠➝✉✿
n = 36; x̄ = 56, 028; s = 5, 321
✣1 '✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; tn−1;α/2 ≈ zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96
❙❛✐ #$✿
s 5, 321
ε = tn−1;α/2 √ = 1, 96 ∗ √ = 1, 738
n 36
❑❤♦↔♥❣ '✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ♥➠♥❣ #✉➜' '(✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤✿
x̄ − ε < µ < x̄ + ε ⇔ 54, 29 < µ < 57, 766

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✷✴✹✵

✷✳✹ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ )✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ♣❤/0♥❣ 1❛✐ ✭✤5❝ )❤➯♠✮

❇➔✐ )♦→♥✿ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝A❛ ♠1' 'B♥❣ '❤➸ ❝D ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤$✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ 2 ) ✈I✐
µ✈➔ σ2 ❝❤)❛ ❜✐➳'✳ ❚➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ '✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ σ2 ✈I✐ ✤1 '✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✳
❑➳) =✉↔✿ ◆➳✉ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝A❛ X '❤➻ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥✿
(n − 1)S 2
χ2 = ∼ χ2n−1 .
σ2

✲ ❱I✐ ♠R❝ S ♥❣❤➽❛ α✱ ❝❤V♥ α1 = α2 = α/2 ✈➔ ❧➜② ❣✐→ '(W χ2n−1;α/2 , χ2n−1;1−α/2 ❧➔ ❣✐→ )@A
)B✐ ❤↕♥ ♠R❝ α/2 ✈➔ 1 − α/2 ❝A❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤$✐ χ2n−1 ✱ '❛ ✤)X❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ '✐♥ ❝➟②✳
✲ ❈❤V♥ α1 = 0 ❤♦➦❝ α2 = 0✳ ▲Z❝ ♥➔② '❛ '❤❛② χ2n−1;α/2 ❜[✐ χ2n−1;α ✱ χ2n−1;1−α/2 ❜[✐
χ2n−1;1−α ✈➔ '❤✉ ✤)X❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ '✐♥ ❝➟② ♠1' ♣❤➼❛✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✸✴✹✵

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✹✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❑➳" #✉↔
❱!✐ ✤$ %✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✿
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ %✐♥ ❝➟② ❤❛✐ ♣❤➼❛ ❝❤♦ σ2 ✿
(n − 1)s2 2 (n − 1)s2
< σ < ,
χ2n−1;α/2 χ2n−1;1−α/2

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ %✐♥ ❝➟② %4✐ ✤❛ ❝❤♦ ♣❤56♥❣ 7❛✐ σ2 ✿

(n − 1)s2
0 < σ2 < .
χ2n−1;1−α

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ %✐♥ ❝➟② %4✐ %❤✐➸✉ ❝❤♦ ♣❤56♥❣ 7❛✐ σ2 ✿

(n − 1)s2
< σ 2 < +∞.
χ2n−1;α

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✺✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞) ✻
▼!" ❞➙② ❝❤✉②➲♥ "+ ✤!♥❣ ✤.♥❣ ❣↕♦ ✈➔♦ ❜❛♦ ✤56❝ ❦✐➸♠ ";❛✳ ❈➙♥ "❤> ✷✺ ❜❛♦ ❣↕♦ ❞♦ ❞➙②
❝❤✉②➲♥ ♥➔② "❤+❝ ❤✐➺♥ "❤➻ "➼♥❤ ✤56❝ ✤! ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❦❤F✐ ❧56♥❣ ❣↕♦ ♠G✐ ❜❛♦ s = 0, 15
✭❦❣✮✳ ❱K✐ ✤! "✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪ "➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ♣❤5Q♥❣ R❛✐ ❝S❛ ❦❤F✐ ❧56♥❣ ❣↕♦ ✤56❝
✤.♥❣ ❝❤♦ ♠G✐ ❜❛♦ ❜T✐ ❞➙② ❝❤✉②➲♥ ♥➔②✳ ●✐↔ "❤✐➳" ❦❤F✐ ❧56♥❣ ❣↕♦ ✤56❝ ✤.♥❣ ❝❤♦ ♠G✐ ❜❛♦
"✉➙♥ "❤❡♦ ❧✉➟" ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤F✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳"✿ χ224;0.025 = 39, 364✱ χ224;0.975 = 12, 401.
✣→♣ ./✿ 0, 0137 < σ2 < 0, 0435✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✻✴✹✵

✷✳✺ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ "✛ ❧➺

❇➔✐ "♦→♥✿ ❳➨% ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ A %@♦♥❣ %A♥❣ %❤➸ ❝B %➾ ❧➺ ❧➔ p ✭❝❤5❛ ❜✐➳%✮✳ ✣➸ ❦❤↔♦ 7→% ❣✐→ %@M p
%❛ %✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤ ✤✐➲✉ %@❛ ♠$% ♠➝✉ ❦➼❝❤ %❤5!❝ n✳ ●✐↔ 7R %@♦♥❣ ♠➝✉ ♥➔② ❝B k ♣❤➛♥ %R ♠❛♥❣
❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ A✳ ❍➣② %➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ %✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ p✳
❑➳" #✉↔✿
✲ ●W✐ X ❧➔ 74 ♣❤➛♥ %R ♠❛♥❣ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ A %@♦♥❣ ♠➝✉ ❦➼❝❤ %❤5!❝ n✱ %❛ ❝B X ∼ B(n, p)✳
❚❤❡♦ ✤M♥❤ ❧[ ❣✐!✐ ❤↕♥ %➼❝❤ ♣❤➙♥ ▼♦✐✈@❡✲▲❛♣❧❛❝❡✱ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥✿
X − np
Z=p ❝B ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤4✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ ❝❤✉➞♥ %➢❝ N (0, 1)✳
np(1 − p)

✲ ❱!✐ α ∈ (0; 1) ❝❤♦ %@5!❝✱ ❝❤W♥ α1 = α2 = α/2 %❛ ✤5e❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣✿

r r
p(1 − p) p(1 − p)
p̂ − zα/2 < p < p̂ + zα/2
n n

✈!✐ p̂ = X/n = k/n✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✼✴✹✵
CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✽✴✹✵

▼➦" ❦❤→❝✱ ❞♦ p̂ ❧➔ ♠-" ./❝ ❧.0♥❣ ❝3❛ p ♥➯♥ "❛ ❝6 "❤➸ ①❡♠ p ≈ p̂ ❦❤✐ n ❧/♥✳
✣✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥✿ np̂ > 5 ✈➔ n(1 − p̂) > 5✳
❛✳ ❑➳, -✉↔
❱/✐ ✤- "✐♥ ❝➟② 1 − α✿
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➟② ✤E✐ ①F♥❣ ❝❤♦ p✿
r r
p̂(1 − p̂) p̂(1 − p̂)
p̂ − zα/2 < p < p̂ + zα/2 .
n n

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➙② "E✐ ✤❛ ❝❤♦ p ✿

r
p̂(1 − p̂)
p < p̂ + zα .
n

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② (-✐ (❤✐➸✉ ❝❤♦ p✿

r
p̂(1 − p̂)
p > p̂ − zα .
n
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✾✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞# ✼
●✐❡♦ ✹✵✵ ❤↕( ✤➟✉ ①❛♥❤ (❤➻ ❝1 ✺✵ ❤↕( ❦❤4♥❣ ♥↔② ♠➛♠✳ ❱<✐ ✤= (✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✽✪✱ ❤➣② (➻♠✿
❛✮ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ✤F✐ ①G♥❣ ❝❤♦ (➾ ❧➺ ❤↕( ♥↔② ♠➛♠✳
❜✮ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② (F✐ (❤✐➸✉ ❝❤♦ (➾ ❧➺ ❤↕( ❦❤4♥❣ ♥↔② ♠➛♠✳
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳( z0,05 = 1, 645; z0,025 = 1, 96; z0,02 = 2, 054; z0,01 = 2, 326✳
●✐↔✐✳
k 400 − 50
❛✳ ✲ ❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ =
p̂ = = 0, 875✳
n 400
✲ ✣9 (✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 98 ⇒ α = 0, 02; zα/2 = z0,01 = 2, 326
r r
p̂(1 − p̂) 0, 875 ∗ (1 − 0, 875)
✲ ❙❛✐ ;-✿ ε = zα/2 = 2, 326 ∗ = 0, 0385
n 400
✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ (➾ ❧➺ ❤↕( ♥↔② ♠➛♠ ♣✿

p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 8365 < p < 0, 9135

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✵✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❜✳ ✲ ❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿
k 50
p̂ = = = 0, 125
n 400
✲ ✣, -✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 98 ⇒ α = 0, 02; zα = z0,02 = 2, 054
✲ ❙❛✐ 56✿
r r
p̂(1 − p̂) 0, 125 ∗ (1 − 0, 125)
ε = zα = 2, 054 ∗ = 0, 034
n 400

✲ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② -6✐ -❤✐➸✉ ❝❤♦ -➾ ❧➺ ❤↕- ❦❤?♥❣ ♥↔② ♠➛♠ ♣✿

p > p̂ − ε ⇔ p > 0, 091

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✶✴✹✵

❜✳ ◆❤➟♥ ①➨(
✐✮ ❑❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ 12 ❧45♥❣ ❝→ (❤➸
❚B ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ -➾ ❧➺ -❛ ❝C -❤➸ 5✉② D❛ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ 56 ❧EF♥❣ ❝→ -❤➸ ♠❛♥❣
❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝K✉ ❤♦➦❝ 56 ❧EF♥❣ ❝→ -❤➸ ❝M❛ -N♥❣ -❤➸✳ ❈P -❤➸✿
✲ ●R✐ ❑ ✈➔ ◆ ❧➛♥ ❧EF- ❧➔ 56 ❧EF♥❣ ❝→ -❤➸ ♠❛♥❣ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝K✉ ✈➔ 56 ❧EF♥❣ ❝→ -❤➸
❝M❛ -N♥❣ -❤➸✳ ❑❤✐ ✤C✱ -➾ ❧➺ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝K✉✿
K
p= (1)
N

✲ ❉Y❛ -D➯♥ ♠➝✉ ✤✐➲✉ -D❛✱ -❛ E[❝ ❧EF♥❣ ✤EF❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ -➾ ❧➺ ♣✿

p1 < p < p 2 (2)

❚B ✭✶✮ ✈➔ ✭✷✮ 5✉② D❛ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ❣✐→ -D` ❑ ❤♦➦❝ ◆✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✷✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞; ✽
❚!♦♥❣ ♠&' ❝✉&❝ ❜➛✉ ❝, - ♠&' ✤/❛ ♣❤34♥❣ ❝5 ✶✵✵✵✵ ❝, '!✐✳ ◆❣3;✐ '❛ ♣❤<♥❣ ✈➜♥ ♥❣➝✉
♥❤✐➯♥ ✸✵✵ ❝, '!✐ '❤➻ '❤➜② ❝5 ✶✺✻ ♥❣3;✐ F♥❣ ❤& ❝❤♦ G♥❣ ❝, ✈✐➯♥ ❆✳ ❱J✐ ✤& '✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪
'➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ '✐♥ ❝➟② ✭✤Q✐ ①G♥❣✮ ❝❤♦ TQ ❧3V♥❣ ❝, '!✐ - ✤/❛ ♣❤34♥❣ ♥➔② F♥❣ ❤& ❝❤♦ G♥❣ ❝,
✈✐➯♥ ❆✳
●✐↔✐✳ ●R✐ ❑ ❧➔ 56 ❧EF♥❣ ❝a -D✐ b ✤`❛ ♣❤Ec♥❣ ♥➔② M♥❣ ❤, K♥❣ ❝a ✈✐➯♥ ❆✳ ❚❛ ❝C -➾ ❧➺ M♥❣
❤, K♥❣ ❝a ✈✐➯♥ ❆✿ p = K/10000✳
❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂ = k/n = 156/300 = 0, 52
✣, -✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96
❙❛✐ 56✿ r
p̂(1 − p̂)
r
0, 52 ∗ 0, 48
ε = zα/2 = 1, 96 ∗ = 0, 0565
n 300
❑❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ -➾ ❧➺ M♥❣ ❤,✿
p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 4635 < p < 0, 5765
❚B ✤C✱ 5✉② D❛✿
0, 4635 < K/10000 < 0, 5765 ⇔ 4635 < K < 5765
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✸✴✹✵
CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❱➼ ❞# ✾
✣➸ "#❝ ❧"&♥❣ )* ❧"&♥❣ ❝→ ❝, -.♦♥❣ ❤1✱ ♥❣"3✐ -❛ ❧➔♠ ♥❤" )❛✉✳ ❇➢- ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✺✵✵ ❝♦♥
❝→✱ )❛✉ ✤, ✤→♥❤ ❞➜✉ ✈➔♦ ❝→❝ ❝♦♥ ❝→ ✤➣ ✤"&❝ ❜➢- ✈➔ -❤↔ ❝❤G♥❣ -❛ ①✉*♥❣ ❤1✳ ❙❛✉ ✤, ❜➢-
♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✷✵✵ ❝♦♥ ❝→ ✤➸ ❦✐➸♠ -.❛ -❤➻ -❤➜② ❝, ✸✵ ❝♦♥ ❝, ✤→♥❤ ❞➜✉✳ ❱#✐ ✤P -✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✵✪
-➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ✤*✐ ①T♥❣ ❝❤♦ )* ❧"&♥❣ ❝→ ❝, -.♦♥❣ ❤1✳
●✐↔✐✳ ●!✐ ◆ ❧➔ &' ❧()♥❣ ❝→ ./♦♥❣ ❤2✳ ❚❛ ❝6 .➾ ❧➺ ❝→ ✤()❝ ✤→♥❤ ❞➜✉✿ p = 500/N ✳
❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂ = k/n = 30/200 = 0, 15
✣A .✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 9 ⇒ α = 0, 1; zα/2 = z0,05 = 1, 645
❙❛✐ &'✿ r
p̂(1 − p̂)
r
0, 15 ∗ 0, 85
ε = zα/2 = 1, 645 ∗ = 0, 0415
n 200
❑❤♦↔♥❣ .✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ .➾ ❧➺ ❝→ ✤()❝ ✤→♥❤ ❞➜✉✿
p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 1085 < p < 0, 1915
❚G ✤6✱ &✉② /❛✿
0, 1085 < 500/N < 0, 1915 ⇔ 2610, 9 < N < 4608, 3
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✹✴✹✵

✐✐✮ ❱➜♥ ✤➲ ✈➲ ❝0 ♠➝✉

✲ ❙❛✐ &' (J❝ ❧()♥❣✿ r
p̂(1 − p̂)
ε = zα/2
n
✲ ✣✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ❤↕♥ ❝❤➳✿ ε ≤ ∆✱ ∆ > 0 ❝❤♦ ./(J❝✳
✲ ●✐↔ &O ❣✐→ ./P p̂ ❦❤Q♥❣ ❜✐➳♥ ✤A♥❣ ❧J♥ ❦❤✐ .➼♥❤ .➼♥❤ ./➯♥ ❝→❝ ♠➝✉ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✱ ❦❤✐ ✤6✿
2
zα/2

n≥ p̂(1 − p̂).
∆

✲ ❚/♦♥❣ ./(U♥❣ ❤)♣ ❦❤Q♥❣ ❝6 ❞W ❧✐➺✉ ✤➸ .➼♥❤ ❣✐→ ./P p̂✱ &O ❞Y♥❣ ❜➜. ✤➥♥❣ .❤[❝ p̂(1 − p̂) ≤
1/4 .❛ .❤✉ ✤()❝ ❜➜. ✤➥♥❣ .❤[❝✿
2
zα/2

1
n≥ .
4 ∆

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✺✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞# ✶✵
▼P- ❝✉P❝ ❦❤↔♦ )→- )T❝ ❦❤V❡ ❝P♥❣ ✤1♥❣ ✤❛♥❣ ✤"&❝ ❧➯♥ ❦➳ ❤♦↕❝❤ -.♦♥❣ ♠P- ❦❤✉ ✈Z❝ ✤[
-❤\ ❧#♥ ✈#✐ ♠]❝ ✤➼❝❤ "#❝ -➼♥❤ -✛ ❧➺ -.➫ ❡♠ -b ✵ ✤➳♥ ✶✹ -✉e✐ ❝❤"❛ ✤"&❝ -✐➯♠ ❝❤f♥❣ ❜↕✐
❧✐➺- ✤➛② ✤f✳ ❈→❝ ♥❤➔ -e ❝❤T❝ ❝f❛ ❞Z →♥ ♠✉*♥ -✛ ❧➺ ♠➝✉ ❝f❛ -.➫ ❦❤[♥❣ ✤"&❝ -✐➯♠ ❝❤f♥❣
✤➛② ✤f k/n ♣❤↔✐ ♥➡♠ -.♦♥❣ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ ❝f❛ -✛ ❧➺ -❤Z❝ p ✈#✐ )❛✐ )* ±0, 05 ✈#✐ ①→❝ )✉➜- -*✐
-❤✐➸✉ ✾✽✪✳ ❍V✐ ❦➼❝❤ -❤"#❝ ♠➝✉ ✤✐➲✉ -.❛ -*✐ -❤✐➸✉ ❧➔ ❜❛♦ ♥❤✐➯✉❄
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳- z0,05 = 1, 645; z0,025 = 1, 96; z0,02 = 2, 054; z0,01 = 2, 326✳
●✐↔✐✳ ❙❛✐ &' (J❝ ❧()♥❣✿ r
p̂(1 − p̂)
ε = zα/2
n
✣✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥✿ ε ≤ ∆ = 0, 05✳ ❙✉② /❛✿
2
zα/2

n≥ p̂(1 − p̂).
∆

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✻✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❱➻ p̂ ❝❤$❛ ❜✐➳) ♥➯♥ →♣ ❞/♥❣ ❜➜) ✤➥♥❣ )❤4❝ p̂(1 − p̂) ≤ 1/4 )❛ )❤✉ ✤$6❝✿
2
zα/2

1
n≥ .
4 ∆

✣9 )✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 98 ⇒ α = 0, 02; zα/2 = z0,01 = 2, 326✳ ❉♦ ✤?✿

 2
1 2, 326
n≥ = 541, 0276
4 0, 05

❱➟②✱ n = 542✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✼✴✹✵

❱➼ ❞# ✶✶
❙↔♥ ❧$%♥❣ ❣↕♦ ❜→♥ +❛ -+♦♥❣ ✶ ♥❣➔② ❝2 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤6✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ✣✐➲✉ -+❛ =↔♥ ❧$%♥❣ ❜→♥ +❛ -+♦♥❣
✶✷✵ ♥❣➔②✱ -❛ ✤$%❝ ❜↔♥❣ =6 ❧✐➺✉ =❛✉✿
❙↔♥ ❧$%♥❣ ✭❦❣✮ ✹✵✵✲✹✹✵ ✹✹✵✲✹✽✵ ✹✽✵✲✺✷✵ ✺✷✵✲✺✻✵ ✺✻✵✲✻✵✵ ✻✵✵✲✻✹✵ ✻✹✵✲✻✽✵
❙1 ♥❣➔② ✹ ✾ ✶✺ ✷✸ ✸✵ ✷✷ ✶✼

❛✮ ❱F✐ ✤G -✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪ -➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ✤6✐ ①P♥❣ ❝❤♦ =6 -✐➲♥ ❜→♥ +❛ -+✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ -+♦♥❣
♠G- ♥❣➔②✳ ❇✐➳- ❣✐→ ♠S✐ ❦❣ ❣↕♦ ❧➔ ✶✺✳✵✵✵ ✤T♥❣✳
❜✮ ◆❣➔② ❝2 =↔♥ ❧$%♥❣ ❣↕♦ ❜→♥ +❛ ❦❤V♥❣ ♥❤W ❤X♥ ✺✻✵ ❦❣ ✤$%❝ ❣Z✐ ❧➔ ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠✳ ❱F✐
✤G -✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✽✪✱ -➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ -✐♥ ❝➟② ✤6✐ ①P♥❣ ❝❤♦ =6 ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠ -+♦♥❣ ✶✵✵✵ ♥❣➔②
❜→♥✳
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳- z0,05 = 1, 645; z0,025 = 1, 96; z0,02 = 2, 054; z0,01 = 2, 326✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✽✴✹✵

●✐↔✐✳
❛✳ ❉↕♥❣ )❤✉ ❣B♥✿
❙↔♥ ❧$%♥❣ ✭❦❣✮ ✹✷✵ ✹✻✵ ✺✵✵ ✺✹✵ ✺✽✵ ✻✷✵ ✻✻✵
❙0 ♥❣➔② ✹ ✾ ✶✺ ✷✸ ✸✵ ✷✷ ✶✼

❈→❝ DE ✤➦❝ )G$♥❣ ♠➝✉✿ n = 120; x̄ = 566, 67; s = 64

✣9 )✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; tn−1;α/2 = t119;0,025 ≈ z0,025 = 1, 96✳
❙❛✐ DE✿
s 64
ε = tn−1;α/2 √ = 1, 96 ∗ √ = 11, 45
n 120
❑❤♦↔♥❣ )✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ ❦❤E✐ ❧$6♥❣ ❣↕♦ )G✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❜→♥ ✤$6❝ )G♦♥❣ ✶ ♥❣➔②✿
x̄ − ε < µ < x̄ + ε ⇔ 555, 22 < µ < 578, 12
❑❤♦↔♥❣ )✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ DE )✐➲♥ ❚ ✭♥❣➔♥ ✤T♥❣✮ )G✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❜→♥ ✤$6❝ )G♦♥❣ ✶ ♥❣➔②✿
555, 22 ∗ 15 < T < 578, 12 ∗ 15 ⇔ 8328, 3 < T < 8671, 8
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✾✴✹✵
CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❜✳ ●#✐ ❑ ❧➔ () ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠ 34♦♥❣ ✶✵✵✵ ♥❣➔②✳ ❚❛ ❝8 3➾ ❧➺ ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠✿ p = K/1000✳
❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠✿
k 30 + 22 + 17
p̂ = = = 0, 575
n 120
✣? 3✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 98 ⇒ α = 0, 02; zα/2 = z0,01 = 2, 326✳
❙❛✐ ()✿ r r
p̂(1 − p̂) 0, 575 ∗ (1 − 0, 575)
ε = zα/2 = 2, 326 ∗ = 0, 105
n 120
❑❤♦↔♥❣ 3✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ 3➾ ❧➺ ♥❣➔② ❝❛♦ ✤✐➸♠ ♣✿

p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 47 < p < 0, 68

❙✉② 4❛✿
0, 47 < K/1000 < 0, 68 ⇔ 470 < K < 680

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✹✵✴✹✵

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt