BCG Consumer Sentiment Survey

COVID-19 consumer
sentiment research
India survey snapshot: April 30-May 03 results
MAY 2020
India—Wave 3—May, 2020 India
This COVID-19 consumer sentiment research is based on a global survey

which currently covers both developed and emerging markets. It will
be fielded in waves to provide a longitudinal view of consumer
sentiments about the coronavirus pandemic, and about consumer
consumption outlook
Context for This document is focused on Wave 3 in India, which was fielded from
this April 30th-May 03rd, 2020; covering ~1,300 SEC A and B respondents in
Metros, Tier 1 & Tier 2 cities. The following is not an exhaustive
document analysis of that study, but rather a first-read of its results
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

This study assesses the overall shift in spending across a large set of
categories (~50). It also tracks overall consumer sentiment towards the
COVID-19 virus
1
Despite announcement of certain relaxations, consumers concerns around health,

1 economic situation and daily activities still sustain at equal levels
2 Over 50% consumers have a negative outlook towards future income; more than 40%
feel that their spending is going to be remain negatively impacted
3 Winning and losing categories largely consistent over time
4 Secured loans (home/ auto) likely to see reduced demand; significant concern
around loan repayments
Executive 5
Shopping outlets in mall likely to be worst hit; E-commerce preferred, however
skepticism around restrictions on assortment
Summary

1 in 3 likely to trade down for discretionary categories, while more trading up in
6 select essentials (staples/ HH care)
Govt. relaxations not considered as an indicator of things under control

7
More than 50% consider virus under control only when a vaccine is available or when
new cases slow down in India as well as globally
8 Travel & OOH entertainment revival likely to take atleast a few months, even after
the Virus is 'under control', while local retail/ commute likely to bounce back sooner
2
Wave 3 survey conducted in the midst of Lockdown

extension announcement, albeit with many relaxations
Survey: Survey: Survey:
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
56,342
# of COVID cases in India
2.4X
35,365
20,471

14,792
10,815
5,274
5 110 519 1,024
2-Mar
3-Mar
4-Mar
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
1-May
2-May
3-May
4-May
5-May
6-May
7-May
8-May
10-Mar
11-Mar
12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar
19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
22-Mar
23-Mar
24-Mar
25-Mar
26-Mar
27-Mar
28-Mar
29-Mar
30-Mar
31-Mar
10-Apr
11-Apr
12-Apr
13-Apr
14-Apr
15-Apr
16-Apr
17-Apr
18-Apr
19-Apr
20-Apr
21-Apr
22-Apr
23-Apr
24-Apr
25-Apr
26-Apr
27-Apr
28-Apr
29-Apr
30-Apr
1-Apr
2-Apr
3-Apr
4-Apr
5-Apr
6-Apr
7-Apr
8-Apr
9-Apr
22/3: Janata 24/3: Nationwide 14/4: Lockdown 01/5: Lockdown
curfew/India lockdown for 21 extended till 3rd May extended till 17th
lockdown for a day days May, with relaxations
3
Note: Online survey conducted among SEC AB respondents in Metro- Tier 2 towns, Wave 1: Mar 23-26 (N=2,106), Wave 2: Apr 17-20 (N=2,324), Wave 3: Apr 30-May 03 (N=1,327)
Source: Ministry of Health & Family welfare (Data updated as on 08 May)
1
Consumer sentiment in India similar to global markets; China shows

early signs of recovery
% consumers India China France Italy UK USA
The world is in serious danger due

to the coronavirus 79% 78% 81% 77% 79% 73%
The worst of the coronavirus is not

43% 26% 59% 50% 65% 57%
over
There will be an economic recession

82% 70% 89% 89% 89% 80%
due to the coronavirus

I'm trying to avoid public spaces as
much as possible due to the 85% 83% 84% 88% 86% 85%
coronavirus
I've changed my daily lifestyle as a

81% 68% 70% 83% 85% 82%
results of the coronavirus
Above 70% 60% to 70% Below 60%

Note: Question text: “How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?” Circle size reflects the percentage of respondents who agree with the given
statement. Sources: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 24–27 2020 (N = 2,783 US; 2,779 China; 2,954 France; 3,024 Italy; 3,126 UK), and BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment
4
Survey, April 30–03 May 2020 (N = 1,327 India)
1
Despite relaxations in Lockdown, concerns across health,

economic situation and daily lifestyle continue
Health Economic situation Daily lifestyle

% consumers agreeing
84% 81% 82% 87% 86% 87% 84% 82%

83% 83%
79% 79%
75% 75%
68%

41% 43% 40%
The world is in People of all There will be an Economic situation I’m maintaining I’m working
serious danger ages are dying economic recession will not improve social distance from home
for several years from others
Note: Question text: "How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?" Combined Strongly agree and Somewhat agree
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26 2020, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively) 5
2
Over 50% continue to have a negative outlook on future income

Younger consumers, lower SECs & small businesses more pessimistic
Expected change
Age SEC Occupation
in income
Salaried
18-25 yrs
SEC A 17% 57%
Wave 3 14% 61%
20% 54% 22% 52% Self-employed
26-35 yrs
29% 49%
23% 52%

Wave 2 SEC B
36-45+ yrs Small business
19% 54% 14% 60% SEC B
21% 51% 10% 65%
Wave 3
% expecting higher income in the next 6 months % expecting lower income in the next 6 months
Question text: “How do you expect your overall available household income to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?". Note: Self-employed includes professions
like doctors, CAs, yoga instructors, etc. Small business includes businesses with <10 employees and shop owners
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,324 and N = 1,327 respectively) 6
2
43% have unfavorable sentiment on future spends

Younger consumers, lower SECs and small businesses less resilient
Expected change
Age SEC Occupation
in total spends
Salaried
18-25 yrs
SEC A 30% 44%
Wave 3 28% 48%
32% 43% 34% 42% Self-employed
26-35 yrs
33% 42%
34% 41%

Wave 2 SEC B
36-45+ yrs Small business
30% 47% 24% 47%
34% 41% 17% 52%
Wave 3
% expecting increase in total spends in the next 6 months % expecting decrease in total spends in the next 6 months
Question text: "How do you expect your overall spends to change in the Next 6 months as compared to before lockdown?" Note: Self-employed includes professions like doctors, CAs, yoga
instructors, etc. Small business includes businesses with <10 employees and shop owners
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,324 and N = 1,327 respectively) 7
3
Essentials, at-home entertainment, health and insurance consistent

winners; travel, OOH, discretionary, large ticket purchases losers
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May
Winners 23-26th Mar 17-20th Apr 30 Apr-03th May Losers
Fresh foods Vacation/leisure travel
Staples Business travel

Travel
Public transport
Household care products
Daily Spas, theme parks, concerts
essentials Personal care products
Restaurants
Utilities (electricity, water) OOH
Entertainment Movies at cinema hall
Mobile services Luxury brands/products
Home wifi connection Cosmetics, makeup, perfume
At-home Paid OTT subscription Apparel/fashion
entertainment Tobacco & smoking supplies
DTH services

Discretionary
spends Alcohol
Toys & games
Food delivery
Savings
Saving/ Home construction/renovations
Investments Insurance Home
Home furnishings and décor
Preventive diagnostics/test
Scooters/bikes
Vitamins, herbs, supplements Cars
Auto
Health Medical procedures Non-mobile consumer electronics
First-aid Electronics
Education
Education
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories with Top 2 Box > (5% more than average) classified as winning categories. Categories with Bottom 2 Box > (5% 8
more than average) classified as losing categories. Categories neutral across waves: Baby/children's food, Non prescription medications, Prescription medicines, House rent
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively)
3
Essentials, at-home entertainment, savings and health & wellness continue to

see more positive sentiment
Change in spends in next six months Top winners
∆ in top 2 box1
Distribution of survey responses (%)
since Wave 2
7% 12% 29% 26% 25% Fresh foods 11%
Essentials for
6% 13% 37% 22% 22% Staples 5%
daily life
6% 12% 33% 24% 24% Household care products 10%
8% 13% 28% 25% 27% Mobile services 17%
At-home
6% 7% 37% 26% 25% Home Wifi connection entertainment/ 12%
Media
10% 13% 24% 31% 23% Paid OTT subscription 9%
11% 21% 18% 24% 25% Savings Saving/ 8%

8% 13% 32% 24% 22% Insurance Investments 9%
9% 8% 35% 24% 25% Education Education 15%
9% 13% 28% 25% 25% Preventive diagnostics/ tests 1%
8% 11% 32% 26% 23% Vitamins, herbs, supplements 8%
Health &
6% 14% 37% 27% 17% First-aid Wellness 4%
6% 13% 30% 29% 23% Medical procedures 11%

A lot less Somewhat less About the same Somewhat more A lot more
1. Likely to spend somewhat more and likely to spend a lot more 9

Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories with Top 2 Box > 42% (5% more than average) classified as winning categories
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively)
3
Travel, outdoor leisure activities, discretionary spending and big ticket items
continue to witness more negative sentiment
Change in spends in next six months Top losers
∆ in bottom 2 box1
Distribution of survey responses (%) since Wave 2
38% 21% 9% 14% 18% Vacation/ leisure travel -5%
Travel &
33% 22% 13% 9% 23% Business travel transport -6%
31% 27% 16% 13% 13% Public transport 3%
30% 25% 11% 16% 18% Spas, theme parks, concerts -5%
Out-of-home
32% 28% 11% 16% 13% Restaurants entertainment -4%
35% 29% 10% 15% 11% Movies at cinema hall 1%
23% 23% 20% 15% 18% Luxury brands/products -5%
15% 25% 24% 20% 17% Apparel/ fashion -9%
20% 26% 23% 14% 18% Cosmetics, makeup, perfume Discretionary -4%
spends

26% 18% 23% 17% 16% Tobacco & smoking supplies -11%
22% 22% 21% 18% 18% Alcohol -13%
26% 26% 16% 16% 16% Food delivery 0%
Non-mobile
30% 21% 24% 15% 10% Non-mobile consumer electronics electronics -8%
58% 12% 10% 9% 10% Home construction/ renovations Home -1%
20% 25% 20% 21% 14% Home furnishings and décor improvement -3%
36% 16% 23% 11% 13% Scooters/bikes -15%
33% 18% 23% 13% 12% Cars Automobiles -16%
18% 24% 28% 14% 16% Automotive spare parts -4%
A lot less Somewhat less About the same Somewhat more A lot more
1. Likely to spend somewhat less and likely to spend a lot less

Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?" For consumer electronics categories, cars, scooter/bike, home construction, Bottom 2 box is a 10
sum of those who have already cancelled their plans to purchase and those who plan to spend less among those who still plan to buy in next 6 months. Categories with Bottom 2 Box > 41% (5% more than
average) classified as losing categories. Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 23-26, April 17-20 2020, April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 2,106, N = 2,324, and N=1,327 respectively)
4
Significant concerns around loan re-payments; reduced demand

likely to reflect in low demand for associated loan products as well
86% consumers are worried about 30-40% plan to defer loans; while 15- ~30% customers plan to take a loan
servicing loans post moratorium 20% new customers plan to take loans of smaller ticket-size
% consumers who have loans Among consumers who were intending to buy Among consumers who intended to take loan
these categories pre-COVID pre COVID and still plan to take it1
14 13 Not worried/ 13% 20% Same value

Not at all worried 58
as planned
27 30 Somewhat worried
44%

48% Lesser value
28
than planned
59 57 Extremely worried
43% More value
32% 14
than planned
Home loan Auto loan Home Loan Auto loan
Had no intent to take loan but now plan to take in next 6 months Had intent to take loan but now postponed or cancelled
Had intent to take loan and still plan to take in next 6 months
Question text: "How worried are you about paying your existing loan payment once the moratorium is lifted?" 1. Includes responses from those intending to
take secured & unsecured loans
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 17-20 2020 (N = 2,324) 11
5
Shopping outlets in mall likely to be worst hit; E-commerce preferred, however

skepticism around restrictions on assortment
Change in spends in next 1 month
(assuming all retail options are accessible) Drivers to reduce spends Drivers to increase spends
Online websites Unsure about product

35 32 33 61% availability
50% To avoid exposure to crowd
Expect higher prices – no Prefer a nearby shop, minimize

Local shops 30 34 36 54%
discounts
48% travel

Stand alone stores
31 23 46 44% To avoid crowded places 45% Expect discounts/ promotions
(Single/ multi brand)
Shopping outlets
in malls
26 20 54 54% To avoid crowded places 40% Expect wider assortment
% consumers (among those who will decrease % consumers (among those who will increase
Increase spends Same spends Reduce spends spends) spends)
Note: Question text: "In the next one month, how much do you expect your total spend on the following types of stores/sites to change"; "What are the key reasons to increase/ decrease
spends (Top 3 reasons)"
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, April 17-20 2020, (N = 2,324) 12
6
1 in 3 likely to trade down for discretionary categories, while more

trading up in staples/ HH care
Daily essentials Discretionary spends
Trading up:
Buying more expensive 24 25 22 26
30 29 32 28
brands or higher 34
variant of same brand
26
43 45 41
No Change: 47 29
40

Buying the same
55 56
brand
46
32 33 33 37
Trading down: 29 28
Buying cheaper brands 14 15
or lower variant of
same brand Staples Household Personal care Packaged F&B Apparel/ Alcohol Cosmetics, Mobile device Consumer
care Fashion make up durables
(Large & small
Trade up No Change Trade down
appliances)
Note: Categories considered: Apparel/ Fashion, Packaged F&B, Staples, Personal care, Cosmetics, Household care products, Mobile, Electronics (large, small), Alcohol
Question text: In the next one month (CPG)/ six month (Electronics) how do you expect the choice of your brands to change?
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327) 13
7
Over 50% believe that Treatment and containment of cases are the
strongest indicators that the virus is in control
Government relaxations & re-opening of shops, offices least likely to instill confidence
Consumer definitions of "under control"
Vaccine/ medicines available 51%

Number of new cases slowdown globally 43%
Treatment/
Medication to treat virus approved 36%
containment
No/negligible new cases in India 33%
Number of new cases in India slowdown 32%

Coronavirus testing widely available 28%
Government removes restrictions 24%
Removal of restrictions
Easing of Majority of retail stores re-open 17%
not considered an
curbs Majority of offices re-open 16% effective indicator for
the Virus to be in control
Majority of restaurants re-open for dining in 14%
Note: Question text: "When will you feel that the Coronavirus is under control? Please select up to three."
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey April 30-May 03 2020 (N=1,327) 14
8
Time till spending returns to 'normal'
post the virus is 'under control' (%)
Flights 5 11 53 25 6
Hotels 8 20 47 21 4
Travel &
Travel & OOH Tourism
Trains 6 25 50 16 3
entertainment
unlikely to witness Bus/Metro 17 28 41 12 1
immediate revival Commute Auto/Taxi 30 37 20 11 2

even post Virus

control, local retail Local shops 40 43 11 51
likely to bounce back Retail
sooner Malls 16 35 38 7 2
Restaurants 14 33 39 13 1
Note: Question text: “If coronavirus were to be under
control, after how long do you think your spending OOH
would return to normal i.e., similar to before the
Coronavirus outbreak?" Excludes those who never did leisure Movie theatres 12 31 38 14 5
the activity before Coronavirus
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey
April 30-May 03 2020 (N = 1,327) Immediately Within a few weeks Within a few months In 1 year or more Never 15
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care
prior to producing this COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Research, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time.
COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Research is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute
for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are
advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using COVID-19 Consumer
Sentiment Research as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision.

16
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COVID-19 consumer

This COVID-19 consumer sentiment research is based on a global survey

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Despite announcement of certain relaxations, consumers concerns around health,

3 Winning and losing categories largely consistent over time

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Govt. relaxations not considered as an indicator of things under control

Wave 3 survey conducted in the midst of Lockdown

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Consumer sentiment in India similar to global markets; China shows

The world is in serious danger due

The worst of the coronavirus is not

There will be an economic recession

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

I've changed my daily lifestyle as a

Above 70% 60% to 70% Below 60%

Despite relaxations in Lockdown, concerns across health,

Health Economic situation Daily lifestyle

84% 81% 82% 87% 86% 87% 84% 82%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Over 50% continue to have a negative outlook on future income

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

43% have unfavorable sentiment on future spends

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Essentials, at-home entertainment, health and insurance consistent

Staples Business travel

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Essentials, at-home entertainment, savings and health & wellness continue to

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

6% 13% 30% 29% 23% Medical procedures 11%

1. Likely to spend somewhat more and likely to spend a lot more 9

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

1. Likely to spend somewhat less and likely to spend a lot less

Significant concerns around loan re-payments; reduced demand

14 13 Not worried/ 13% 20% Same value

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Home loan Auto loan Home Loan Auto loan

Shopping outlets in mall likely to be worst hit; E-commerce preferred, however

Online websites Unsure about product

Expect higher prices – no Prefer a nearby shop, minimize

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

1 in 3 likely to trade down for discretionary categories, while more

Daily essentials Discretionary spends

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Vaccine/ medicines available 51%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

immediate revival Commute Auto/Taxi 30 37 20 11 2

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

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