Introduction to the Statistics of NDT Page 1 of 4

NDT.net • May 2006 • Vol. 11 No.5

Introduction to the Statistics of NDT

E. Ginzel - Materials Research Institute

Abstract

NDT inspectors are increasingly being required to produce quantitative results using tools
that are not optimum for the task. As a result, uncertainties in the quantities they provide
can be expected. These uncertainties can be broadly grouped into two categories;
detection uncertainty and dimensional uncertainty.

DETECTION UNCERTAINTY

Detection uncertainty relates to whether or not a flaw has been found. This is in itself is a
controversial topic. What constitutes a flaw? If we consider that any deviation from a pure
condition constitutes a "flawed" item then even the smallest crystal dislocation in a metal
structure could be interpreted as a "flaw". Not many (probably not any) components would
be considered "unflawed" if the definition was taken to this extreme. Flaw detection must
therefore take on some practical considerations. Detection of flaws in NDT is by indirect
means and whether or not a flaw is detected therefore depends on a variety of factors.
These factors include the nature of the flaw itself, the test method used, the sensitivity of
the test method used and human factors.

Having agreed upon the test method and test protocol, there are four possible outcomes in
an inspection of a component. These four options constitute the probability matrix of
detection.

1. An item is flawed and the NDT method detects it (True Positive)

2. No flaw exists and the NDT method indicates a flaw present (False Positive)
3. An item is flawed and the NDT method does not detect it (False Negative)
4. No flaw exists and the NDT method has no indication of a flaw (True Negative)

These are the foundations of the concept of "Probability of Detection" or POD. In NDT, this
concept was developed mainly in NASA in the USA during the 1970s. It has since expanded
to a few other venues of NDT inspections but is not yet as widely accepted as might be
expected.

PODs try to assess a minimum flaw size that will be reliably detected by the NDT
technique. This is best done by plotting the accumulation of flaws detected against the flaw
size of all the flaws "detected" or that produce a response over some threshold. Ideally all
flaws over some critical size will be detected and flaws smaller than that are not
"detected". The tool most commonly used for POD description is the POD curve. Figure 1
illustrates a POD curve that indicates there is an 80% chance of detecting a flaw 2.2mm
high and we can state with 90% confidence that it would not be greater than 3.3mm high.
Or conversely we may state that we have a 90% confidence that a flaw 2.2mm high will be
detected will not have a POD less than 65%.

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Fig 1: Sample POD curve

The best way to describe a confidence curve (e.g. 95 %) is to state that: If the actual POD
curve were to be reconstructed over and over using the same method and data, then 95%
of those constructed curves would be above the confidence curve (i.e. 5% would be
below). In other words, we are 95% sure that the REAL POD curve is above the confidence
curve.

The confidence level must also consider the effects of the full matrix for POD where we
have the potential for false calls. In a set of specimens with known flaws over the minimum
required size for detection we can see that a miss of one item could destroy our confidence
in the system if a high confidence is required. E.g. if there was a selection of 30 specimens
it would require that 28 samples be tested in order to provide assurance that we have we
could have a 95% confidence that the results are indicative of the detection capabilities of
the test system. However, if we missed a flaw in one of the 28 samples we would no longer
have 95% confidence of in the probability of detection.

An example of the population size required to be tested to assess the probability reliability
is found at the website http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm There they explain that
the confidence level tells you the larger your sample, the more sure you can be that the
test results truly reflect the population distribution. This indicates that for a given
confidence level, the larger your sample size, the smaller your confidence interval can be.
However, the relationship is not linear (i.e., doubling the sample size does not halve the
confidence interval).

Conversely, if we have a large population we need to make a test of many samples to

ensure that the results are indicative of the entire population (the calculator at the
referenced website indicates 278 samples are required in a population of 1000 to ensure a
95% confidence level).

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DIMENSIONING UNCERTAINTY

Quite a different set of uncertainties exists when an NDT operator is required to provide
dimensional information about the flaws detected. Dimensions usually requested include;
length, maximum vertical extent, depth below a test surface and position with respect to
some X-Y coordinate system.

NDT uses indirect measurement methods to assess flaw dimensions. Magnetic particle
inspection uses the pattern of small particles entrapped in a magnetic field. Eddy current
uses coil impedance phase and amplitude information to gauge flaw depth and size.
Ultrasonic testing uses arrival times, amplitude and phase information to provide depth,
area and nature of a flaw.

However, even more direct methods can suffer from variation in estimates of dimensions.
Handing a vernier calliper to ten people and asking them to provide the three dimensions
(length, width, height) of a steel block will still result in a scattering of dimensions being
recorded. Variations will result due to; different skill levels with the calliper, measurements
at different places along the block surfaces, different pressures used on the calliper
actuator and even rounding of readings if the vernier is mechanical instead of digital.

Analysis of the variations of sizing in NDT becomes important when the results are used
with fracture mechanics to assess if a flaw can be allowed to remain in the part or not.
Materials' properties are studied in mechanical laboratories to determine the maximum
flaw size that will not result in the component failing. This is an important concept for NDT
users as it stresses the opposite to what most people ask of NDT. Instead of "What is the
smallest flaw a test method can find?" the real concern is, "What is the largest flaw that
could be missed by the NDT method?"

When an NDT operator is asked to make a judgment about the size of the flaw the result is
then compared to an allowable dimension chart. But if the NDT method is not exactly
accurate then there is some possibility that the dimension estimated by the NDT operator
is less than actually exists, i.e. the operator under sizes the flaw. The NDT operator's
estimate then results in an underestimate of the severity of the flaw. By an analysis of the
sizing technique, the fracture mechanics engineer can incorporate a safety factor in the
calculations that provides for the potential that the sizing technique used might undersize a
flaw.

As with POD calculations, the sizing estimates are analysed using a comparison to results
obtained from destructive testing. One such analysis is illustrated in Figure 2. Figure 2 is a
plot of the vertical extent of flaws that were sized by destructively examining the test
sample and comparing those values to the NDT estimate of vertical extent. Destructive
testing involves cutting and polishing or splitting the sample by means of a "nick break"
and examining the flaws under a microscope to determine the maximum flaw size. This
method too has some variability associated with it. It is the maximum overall value that is
generally considered the reference to which the NDT size is compared. An ideal NDT
method would plot all the NDT estimates along the line that equals the destructive test
sizes. However, a scatter of estimates from the ideal is more typical of NDT methods
assigned the task of sizing. This scatter is indicated in Figure 2.

Figure 2 also incorporates sizing tolerance lines. These are lines parallel to the ideal
indicating the error in the size as estimated by NDT compared to the ideal or "assumed"
correct size.

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Fig 2: Plot of NDT Size versus Destructive Size of Flaws

SUMMARY

Probability of detection and sizing tolerances are now commonly required in several
industries. The aircraft industry, and in particular the military, use this type of information
for damage tolerance analysis of their components and scheduling of inspection intervals.
Nuclear industries are adapting this form of analysis to assess the reliability of NDT to
detect flaws in components during in-service inspections. More recently the pipeline
industry has relied on this type of analysis to develop fitness for purpose acceptance
criteria for the construction of pipelines.

The statistical and probabilistic assessments of the NDT technique are useful tools.
However, the process is time-consuming, costly and not absolute. Statistical assessment
relies on the comparison of limited samples that must be verified using destructive
methods. Although it is assumed that the destructive methods are the "true" values, here
too there can be uncertainty and variation. Was the macro section made at the peak
vertical extent? How precise was the measurement reported by the destructive test lab? If
the flaw was long and there was depth variation to the upper edge does the destructive
test reflect this? When length is reported what is the limit to which the destructive test can
assess the flaw?

Probability of detection is also a function of what is defined as a flaw, and since variations
in determining "actual" size of a flaw can exist due to the destructive testing methods, it
follows that the POD results of NDT assessments are not solely a function of the NDT
technique.

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