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Equitymaster Agora Research Private Limited
Independent Investment Research
14 March 2016
Use This Checklist to Find Winning Small Caps
Even in a Volatile Market
Times are tough for equity investors. 2016 has started badly. Volatility has been quite high.
Many stocks that ran up sharply last year have crashed. This is especially true of small caps.
The BSE SmallCap index has fallen 13% since the start of the year. But this does not tell you
the kind of damage many stocks have suffered. Investors in smallcaps stocks know this very As markets correct,
well. Many portfolios are deep in the red.
buy fundamentally
And that's not the worst part. strong small caps and
Many were firsttime retail investors. They put down their hardearned money in small caps let the magic of
when the markets were booming in 2014.
compounding do the
They made some money initially. Some who borrowed to invest made a killing. Unfortunately, rest.
they got into the action late, unaware of a timeless truth about stock markets. When small caps
as a group start to run up, it's not a time to get excited. It's a time to start worrying. That's
because brokers always sell small caps aggressively only after a bull market has gathered
steam. Large and midcaps have already moved up by then.
A new breed of retail investors hears news about the ‘easy profits' made by friends and colleagues. They resist the temptation
initially. Then they give in. Throwing caution to the wind, they jump in at high valuations, only to get creamed.
But all is not lost. Sure, you will have to get rid of the junk stocks in your portfolio. We told you how to do this in our Hidden
Treasure report in January. There's a useful checklist in it. Use it and throw out the fundamentally weak small caps in your portfolio.
You could hold on to the rest. But I would like to give you another checklist today.
This will help you prune your holdings further.More importantly,it will help you decide on the ones you should hold on to or even
consider buying more.
So without further delay, here is the checklist to find the best smallcaps.
These companies:
Dominate their chosen niche
Have built a durable fortress that competition finds difficult to breach
Have strong longterm growth prospects
Generate returns well above their cost of capital while using little or no debt
Are run by competent, visionary, ethical, and experienced people
That's it! Even if you find only few such businesses, it will be enough.The key is to buy them at attractive valuations and hold
on to them through thick and thin. During market corrections, increase your holding in these stocks. Let the magic of
compounding do the rest.
You Don't Get a Second Chance to Make a Solid First Impression...
And this company is leaving no stone unturned to make it count.
The title of today's recommendation is not something that I have come up with. It's a statement I have borrowed from my
interaction with Mr. J Lakshmana Rao, the Chairman and Managing Director of MoldTek Packaging Ltd. (MTPL), as he spoke
about his quest for innovation and success with top players (clients) in the industry.
Management meetings are always interesting, and they are a quintessential part of our recommendations. However, this meeting in
Hyderabad left an extraspecial impression. It wasn't just about business, financials, and growth prospects. Of course, we
discussed all those...and they were impressive. But what really stood out was Mr Rao's passion for what he does. Never before I
have met a promoter who goes so deep into product and process, and is so focused on keeping the company ahead of the curve.
Indeed, it is MTPL's technically competent, experienced, and handson management that has the company ahead of its industry
peers.
As we entered the office, a showcase of the company's products met our sight sophisticated plastic containers in various colours,
shapes, and sizes, with names like Castrol, Dulux, Cadbury, and Amul printed on them. It made me think how much of a difference
packaging can make to a brand image and value...a nuance that most of us overlook. Not the consumer goods industry though. It
spends millions researching cracking packaging designs that not only appeal to the consumer but are easy to display and stack on
shelves. After all, it's an increasingly competitive world. And as product and pricing differentiation diminishes, packaging becomes
more important than ever in influencing the buying decisions of consumers.
MoldTek Packaging Ltd(MTPL) is a onestop shop for packaging solutions. With around 20% market share, it is a leader in rigid
plastic packaging in India. Paints and lubes comprise around 60% and 35% of its sales respectively. The company boasts of long
term relationships with top players in these industries. It is a key supplier to Asian Paints. Not to mention the largest supplier to
Castrol Ltd. Other clients include Berger Paints, Kansai Nerolac, Akzo Nobel, and Bharat Shell.
Remember when paints and lubes used to come in greasy, leaky, smelly, rusted tin containers? Aren't today's suave plastic
containers a relief? Well, you can thank MTPL for that. The company pioneered the concept of plastic pails in India with Asian
Paints.
And the company has never rested on its laurels. Over the years, it has been known for being ‘the only' and ‘the first' company in
the rigid packaging industry in many areas. It is the only company in this industry that is that is completely backward integrated to
make molds, labels and even robots. The same leads to substantial cost and space saving. It's the only packaging company in the
world to make inhouse, worldclass robots. And that too at onethird of the cost. The company has patents for a locking system to
avoid counterfeiting, which is great for brand image and scalability. Airproof and tamper evident square plastic containers with pull
up spouts are another of the company's innovations.
MTPL has pioneered in house in mould labelling (IML) concept in India, and is the only domestic company in this industry
that makes in house robots for IML decorations. In simple terms, IML results in high picture quality and everlasting decoration,
and hence improves brand image. It offers bar coding. But most importantly, it has better hygiene than conventional labelling as no
human touch is involved. There is huge untapped potential for this technology in India. So far, a lack of domestic facilities and the
high cost of importing IML have kept user industries at bay. With almost no competition in IML, MTPL is indeed in a very sweet
spot. Within three to four years, the share of IML based products in sales has risen from nil to over 45%. The management
is sure it will take this number to at least 70% in the near to medium term. There is huge opportunity to exploit. More so in in
the hygieneconscious food segment. With IML commanding at least a 4% premium over other methods, the company has a
major competitive advantage.
Going forward, the company sees food and the FMCG industry (8% of sales) as one of the key growth drivers. In the near future,
MTPL expects the share to double. It has clients like Amul, Vadilal, Kwality, Unilever, and Cadbury. As per the management, the
edible oil segment (five and 15litre packs) itself is a Rs 10 billion market. It expects to grab 10% of this in the near to medium term.
This is almost a third of the overall sales in FY15. It has already received orders from segment leaders such as Adani Wilmar,
ConAgra, Cargill, Healthy heart etc. Along with that, growth will be driven by increased production capacities at existing plants and
new plant in Dubai. The latter will go commercial in June 2016. In the medium to long term, the management expects further
opportunities to open up in the Gulf region.
The company seems to be on the cusp of high growth. Historically too, the financials have been impressive. The company has
enjoyed an 18% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in profits for the last five years. Operating cash flows have been positive
and return ratios attractive. The average return on equity for the last five years has been 20%. And the company has been paying
dividends for the last eight years, with an average payout ratio for the last five years at 46%. We recommend investors Buy the
stock from a four to fiveyear perspective.
We would like to remind you to keep the suggested asset allocation in mind. Do not allocate more than 2%3% of your portfolio to a
single smallcap stock.
How MoldTek Packaging Will Boost its Fortunes
Huge opportunity in edible oil segment
The company has entered into packaging for edible oil for 5 litres and 15 litres pack. The potential market size is estimated
to be around Rs 10 bn. The management expects to grab at least 10% market share over next two years. This could imply
revenues up to Rs 1000 million, around a third of company's sales in FY 15 and gives strong future growth visibility. The
company has a track record of striking and maintaining longserving relationships with top clients in the industry that it caters
to. So far, it has already received orders from marquee players in the edible oil segment such as Adani Wilmar, Cargill,
Healthy Heart, ConAgra, to name a few.
A decline in crude oil price has made edible oil segment open to plastic containers. However, once this shift happens, it is
unlikely that edible oil companies wouldgo back to using tin containers irrespective of crude price movements. Such a step
may have a negative impact on brand image. We believe that MoldTek Packaging has capitalized this opportunity well and
its results will be seen in the coming years.
Best placed to benefit from shift to IML labeling
MTPL has pioneered in house IML concept in India and uses in house robots for the decoration. As compared to
conventional screen printing, IML commands 4% 5% premium. Over a period of last three to four years, the share of IML in
company's sales has risen from nil to over 45%. The IML process packaging market is still in a nascent stage in India as
there is no other company offering it in house and costs of importing are prohibitive. The management is confident of
increasing IML's share to around 70% in paints and lube industry. In the processed food and FMCG segment particularly,
this technology has a huge demand as there is no human touch involved, making it more hygienic. With the company's
ambitious plans to grow in this segment (from 5% 8% of sales to 17% in the next one to two years), we believe IML will be
one of the important factors in making this company a preferred packaging vendor.
Growth to come as production commences from incremental capacities
The company has recently added around 8,000 tons to 22,000 tons of injection molding capacity in the existing plants.
Further, it has set up RAK (Ras Al Khaimah free trade zone) plant with a capacity of 3,000 tons in Dubai which the
management believes to be a strong market. The company enjoys tax advantage and other benefits in this region. Also, the
management believes that there are significant business opportunities in the Gulf region and is already taking steps to pursue
them.
All the incremental capacities will contribute to sales from FY 17 offering growth visibility. Also, almost 90% of this facility
will use IML. This factor, along with the fact that the capacity utilization will improve over time; will also imply better margins
in future.
Technological edge and cost competitiveness make it a preferred supplier
One of the most impressive things about the company is its quest for innovation to come up with better products and focus
on improving processes to reduce costs that no other competitor has been able to offer. No wonder then that the company is
one of the biggest suppliers to the top players in the segments that it caters to. Patented locking system, tamper evident,
spouted, square containers that are more convenient to use and, inhouse process for IML decoration are some of many
feats of the company. It is worth mentioning here that the company is the only in the world in the rigid plastic packaging
industry to have complete backward integration, including inhouse manufacturing of labels and robots. It is the only
packaging company in the world that manufactures robots, at onethird of the cost of imported robots, that too more efficient
than the imported ones. A complete selfreliant facility lets the company keep costs and rejection rates in control and allows
uninterrupted and stable production which is crucial to its clients. Being a pioneer with the first mover advantage, the
company is placed better than its competitors to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the Indian market, especially now
as it plans to have a significant presence in hygiene conscious food and FMCG industry.
Strong financials
The company's net profits have grown at a CAGR 18% over the Robust quality of earnings
last five years (FY10FY15) and returns on equity over the
same period average around 20%.The debt to equity ratio has
also come down over the years from 1.4 times in FY 13 to less
than 0.2 times in FY15. The quality of earnings is strong with
operating cash flow to net profits averaging around 2 times for
last 5 years (FY11FY15). The icing on the cake is consistent
dividends, with average payout at around 46% for last five
years (FY11FY15). Going forward, the growth prospects are
strong and profitability is likely to improve as the share of IML
moves up and because of better realizations in the new markets
that the company has stepped in.
Key Challenges for MoldTek Packaging Ltd
Volatility in crude oil prices
The company's main raw materials are polymers (crude based derivatives) and comprise around 60% of the sales. Since
polymers are derivatives of crude oil, any fluctuation in the international price of crude oil affects the price of polymers. While
MTPL has pricing arrangements with the customers to pass on the raw material cost fluctuations, any inability or lag to pass
on the increased costs of polymers to its customers in future may affect the company's profitability.
Client concentration risk
While MoldTek Packaging boasts of some highly reputed, profitable companies in its client list, it does face risks arising due
to client concentration.The company's top client Asian Paints Ltd alone accounts for about a quarter of the company's
revenues. The company has in fact dedicated plant for Asian Paints at Satara. Going forward, as and when these clients set
up more capacities, the companies will be setting up plants at the same time to serve the packaging needs. As such, the
loss of any significant customer or a significant reduction in demand from such customers in these industries could have an
adverse effect on the company's business. Also, in a B2B business, the bargaining power is limited. That said, the company
is better tackling this risk now with its focus on new markets such as Gulf region and on segments like edible oil, food and
FMCG.
Slowdown in key customer sectors
A large chunk of the company's current revenues is derived from the paints, and oil & lubricant industries. Around 60% of its
sales come from paints segment while 30%35% from lubricants segment. While lubricants industry is facing structural
challenges with regards to volume growth (more efficient lubricants resulting in longer intervals between changing thus
reducing the volume demand), growth in the paints industry is also linked to economic growth. As such, any slowdown in
these key segments or demand of the company's products by these industries could adversely impact the company's growth
prospects.
If the company is able to capitalise on the huge growth potential in the food and edible oil industry, it will not only boost the
company's growth prospects, but also reduce its concentration to just a few customers and sectors.
Adverse changes in industry trends and preferences
In recent years, MoldTek Packaging has successfully adopted InMould labelling (IML) technology which enables it to
produce a picture quality decoration on the molds produced by it. The company is among the few companies which have
been successful in development of various new technologies which are commercially adopted. In order to compete
effectively in the rigid packaging industry, the company must be able to identify and understand evolving industry trends and
preferences, and to develop new products to meet the demands of customers. If the company fails to adapt to industrial
trends and preferences, customer requirements or technological changes, its business and financial performance could be at
risk.
Equity dilution concerns and low promoter stake
Currently, promoter stake in MoldTek remains at 34%. The company had come up with a QIP worth Rs 55 crore in FY 15
and has used the funds for capacity expansion. In a B2B business, especially with heavy dependence on clients, bargaining
power is low. Hence, company will have to add capacities to grow in future. One cannot totally rule out the case of further
equity dilution in future. That said, the management has stated that it will not go for further dilution, at least until FY17. Also,
unlike in the past, the debt to equity ratio has come down and is now considerably below one. As such, the company is in a
better position to fund expansion without opting for dilution.
About the Company
Established in 1986, MoldTek Packaging Limited (MTPL) is one of the leaders in rigid plastic packaging in India with around 20%
market share. It is involved in the manufacturing of injection molded containers for lubes (around 35% share in revenues), paints
(around 60% share in sales), food, FMCG and other products (5% 8% of sales). It has a huge injection molding capacity of around
22,000 TPA (in FY15) which will go up to 32,000 TPA in FY 17.This will include RAK plant in Dubai with 3,000 TPA capacity.
The company is a pioneer and innovator of pail packaging in India and has introduced spouts and inmold spout concepts for the
paint and lube pails. With inhouse manufacturing capability in place, it is not dependent on imports.
It is a pioneer in the field of InMold label (IML) decoration in India. It has an in house tool room with latest machines to design and
produce complex molds. Even the labels are manufactured inhouse. All this helps it reducing mold downtime (due to quick mould
maintenance) and hence zero supply blackouts. It has a worldclass integrated facility right from product inception to mold designing,
processing and decorating the products. It has 7 plants spread across locations and three stock points to ensure timely delivery. All
its plants are ISO certified.
Complete backward integration and wide sales and distribution spreads allows company to offer excellent quality at competitive
prices. The company has an enviable list of clients such as Asian Paints, Castrol, Bharat Shell, Kansai Nerolac, Berger Paints,
Kwality, Vadilal, Cadbury, Amul etc. Going forward, the company has ambitious plans to grow in food and FMCG segment,
especially edible oils. The company raised around Rs 550 million by way of preferential issue of shares to some of the leading funds
in India in FY15. It has used the funds for capacity expansion at existing plants and for setting up RAK plant in Dubai.
Key Management Personnel
Janumahanti Lakshmana Rao, Chairman and Managing Director, holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from Sri
Venkateswara University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh. He also holds a post graduate diploma in management from Indian Institute of
Management, Bangalore, specializing in marketing and finance areas. He promoted MoldTek in 198586 with an overall project cost
of USD 5.5 million. He has over 30 years of work experience. Under his leadership, MoldTek went for public issue in 1993 and is
listed on BSE & NSE. Under his leadership, the company has grown to become a leader in pail packaging industry in India. He is
also Chairman & Managing Director of MoldTek Technologies Limited.
A. Subramanyam, Deputy Managing Director holds a bachelor's degree from Regional Engineering College, Suratkal. He
completed a short term course in mould design and manufacturing from Central Institute of Plastic Engineering & Technology,
(CIPET) Chennai. In 1986, he promoted MoldTek along with Mr. J Lakshmana Rao. He manages the overall functioning of all the
plants and in house tool room which plays a vital role in developing products for our rigid packaging business.
With three decades of experience, he oversees inhouse research and development division and inhouse toolroom for designing
and development of new products. He has developed in house robots and introduced IML with robotic technology, which has given
the company a platform to develop IML products for the first time in India.
Risk Analysis
In order to further improve our risk analysis of companies we have come out with a revised Equitymaster Risk Matrix (ERMTM). The
ERMTM is broken down in to 4 sub heads namely industry risk, performance risk, management risk and balance sheet risk. (For
details please refer to the ERMTM at the end of the report).
Regulatory Risk
Some businesses are subject to regulations by external government agencies. These companies are subject to regulatory risk
since they do not have the liberty to operate in a free environment. Excessive regulations can create bureaucratic hassles
and impede growth. Thus, higher the regulation, higher is the risk for any business. As far as MTPL is concerned, we do not
foresee any significant regulatory barrier. We assign a risk rating of 7 to the stock on this parameter.
Cyclicality Risk
A business cycle is characterized by alternating periods of expansion and contraction. Businesses whose fortunes typically
swing with industry cycles are known as cyclical businesses. Cyclical businesses do well during an industry upturn and vice
versa. On the other hand, there are some businesses that are not very cyclical. These businesses are more immune to
changes in industry cycles in the sector and have less risk. In short, if the business is cyclical, the risk is higher. A
substantial share of company's earnings come from lubricants and paint industry, the prospects of which depend to a large
extent on overall economic growth. Moreover, crude price fluctuations could impact company's earnings. That said, as per the
management, the company has the flexibility to pass on the input price fluctuations. Also, the company is aiming to increase
its presence in food/FMCG segment which will make the business less cyclical. We assign a medium risk rating of 5 to the
company on this parameter.
Competition Risk
Every industry is characterized by competition. However, some industries where entry and exit barriers are typically low have
higher competition risk. Low barriers mean that more players can enter into the industry thereby intensifying competition.
There is an intense competition in the conventional packaging and labeling segment. That said, the company has come up
with innovative products and processes, such as square pails and IML to stay ahead of competition. It is also one of the
preferred suppliers to all key players in the enduser industry due to its focus on quality and consistency. We assign a
medium risk score of 6 to the company.
Sales growth
Over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5 years and explicit forecast for the next 5 years) we expect sales CAGR of
around 16%. We assign a risk rating of 5 to the company on this parameter.
Net Profit Growth
Over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5 years and explicit forecast for the next 5 years) we expect a net profit
CAGR of around 21%. We assign a risk rating of 6 to the company on this parameter.
Operating Margin
The operating margin is a measurement of what proportion of a company's revenue is left over after paying for variable costs
of production such as raw materials, staff costs, and sales and marketing costs. A healthy operating margin is required for a
company to be able to pay for its fixed costs, such as interest on debt. The higher the margin, the better it is for the company
as it indicates its operating efficiency. MTPL's average operating margin over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5
years and explicit forecast for the next 5 years) stands at 14%.That said, we expect margins to improve in the future on
account of customers accepting IML and with company increasing its presence in edible oil, food and FMCG segment. We
therefore assign a score of 4 to the company on this parameter.
Net Margins
The net margin is a measurement of what proportion of a company's revenue is left over after paying for all the variable and
fixed costs inclusive of interest and depreciation charges. Net margin is the final measure of profitability. It reflects the total
profits the company takes home. Higher the margin, better it is for the company as it indicates better pricing power and
effective cost management. For MTPL, the average net margin over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5 years and
explicit forecast for the next 5 years) stands at around 7%. We assign a score of 3 to the company on this parameter.
Return on Net Worth (RoNW)
Return on Net Worth is an important tool to assess a company's potential to be a quality investment by determining how well
the management is able to allocate capital into its operations for future growth. RoNW of above 15% is considered decent for
companies that are in an expansionary phase. The average RoNW over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5 years and
explicit forecast for the next 5 years) for the company stands at around 21%. As such, we assign a score of 6 to the
company on this parameter.
Earnings quality
This measure helps us assess the quality of earnings reported by the company. For instance, some companies may follow
aggressive accounting practices and recognize revenues earlier than warranted. Earlier recognition of revenues boosts profits.
However, at the same time they do not generate sufficient operating cash flow (OCF). This signifies debtors are not liquidated
on time as sales were booked in advance. Such companies face working capital issues and their quality of earnings is poor.
We assess earnings quality by dividing operating cash flow to net profits. Higher the ratio better is the quality of earnings. For
MTPL, the average OCF/net profit ratio over the tenyear period (actual history of past 5 years and explicit forecast for the
next 5 years) stands above one which is good. We thus assign a score of 10 to the company on this parameter.
Transparency
Transparency is the key to any business. Transp arency can be gauged by assessing the past dealings of the company with
various stakeholders, the way it displays its financial information and the frequency of management's desire to communicate
with external shareholders whenever some unfortunate incident happens. The easiest way to gauge the same is checking the
level of disclosures in the company's quarterly financial updates and annual reports. Transparent managements would get a
higher rating. We are fairly satisfied with the company's disclosures and found the management quite approachable. We,
thus, assign a low risk score of 8 to the company on this parameter.
Capital allocation
Apart from transparency, capital allocation skills are equally important in assessing management quality. By capital allocation
we mean how the management chooses to deploy capital in the business. There are many instances where growth is given
priority over returns on the investment. This results in a company with larger size but with poor returns. Managements are
enticed to increase the size since their compensation is tied to the size of organization they manage. Also, they sometimes
destroy shareholder wealth by making expensive acquisitions or by diversifying into unrelated areas. Hence, capital allocation
skills assume great importance in gauging management quality. Capital allocation skills are good when return ratios depict
resilience. In short, more stable/higher the return ratios better the capital allocation skills. The financials of MTPL have shown
resilience. The management has brought down the debt. At the same time, the company seems to be very wellplaced to
capitalize future growth opportunities. We assign a score of 7 to the company on this parameter.
Promoter Pledging
Promoters typically pledge their shares to take a loan which is generally infused in the company. This exercise is generally
resorted to when all other sources of external liquidity dry out. The risk with this strategy arises when share price falls. This
triggers margin calls. If management is unable to provide some sort of a collateral to the lending party from whom the money
is borrowed that party may sell the shares to recover its money. This accentuates the share price fall. Hence, higher the
promoter pledging higher is the risk. There is no promoter pledging in MTPL. However, we would have been more comfortable
with a higher promoter stake (currently at 33.9%).We assign a rating of 8 to the company on this parameter.
Debt to equity ratio
A highly leveraged business is the first to get hit during times of economic downturn, as companies have to consistently pay
interest costs, despite lower profitability. We believe that a debt to equity ratio of greater than 1 is a highrisk proposition. The
company in the past had debt to equity ratio higher than 1, which has now been brought down to well below one. At the end
of FY15, the debt to equity ratio was below 0.2 times. Over the tenyear period (actual ratio for last five years and forecast for
next five years), the average debt to equity ratio stands at 0.6 times. As such, we assign a score of 8 to the company on this
parameter.
Interest coverage ratio
The interest coverage ratio is used to determine how comfortably a company is placed in terms of payment of interest on
outstanding debt. It is calculated by dividing a company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by its interest expense
for a given period. The lower the ratio, the greater are the risks. MTPL's average interest coverage ratio for ten years (actual
past five years and forecasted next five years) stands at around 10 times. As such, we assign a score of 9 to the company
on this parameter. It may be noted that leverage, return generating capability, earnings quality and management risk get the
highest weight in our matrix. Hence, scores assigned to these factors influence the overall score.
Considering the above analysis, the total ranking assigned to the company is 92. On a weighted basis, it stands at 7. This
makes the stock a low risk investment from a longterm perspective.
ERMTM
Company Specific Parameters Points Riskiness (A) Weightage (B) Weighted (A*B)
HighMediumLow
Industry risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Regulatory risk $ 7 5.0% 0.4
Cyclicality risk $ 5 5.0% 0.3
Competition risk $ 6 5.0% 0.3
Performance risk
Sales growth 5 5.0% 0.3
Net profit growth 6 5.0% 0.3
Operating margins 4 5.0% 0.2
Net margins 3 5.0% 0.2
RoNW 6 10.0% 0.6
Earnings Quality (OCF/PAT) 10 10.0% 1.0
Management risk
Transparency $ 8 10.0% 0.8
Capital allocation $ 7 10.0% 0.7
Promoter pledging $ 8 10.0% 0.8
Balance Sheet risk
Debt to equity ratio 8 10.0% 0.8
Interest coverage ratio 9 5.0% 0.5
Final Rating 92 7.0
*Excluding extraordinary gains
For qualitative factors, denoted by $ sign, lower the risk, higher the rating For any risk parameter if the score is below or equal to 4 it indicates high risk. The risk score
of these parameters is highlighted in red color. For risk parameters where the score is above 4 riskiness is low. The risk score of such parameters is highlighted in grey.
Updates On MOLDTEK PLASTICS:
Add: Alert | Portfolio
Market Data
Price On Reco. Date (Rs) 129 (BSE)
Why Is The Stock Worthy Of Investment
CMP BSE / NSE (Rs) 130 / 129
The company has been one of the preferred
Change Since Reco. 0.5% 'Buy the stock of Mold
suppliers to leading companies in the end user
52week High/Low (Rs) 167 / 83 Tek Packaging Ltd at
industries such as Castrol, Asian Paints,
current price'.
NSE Symbol MOLDTKPAC Berger Paints, Kansai Nerolac to name a few
BSE Code 533080 and enjoys long term relationship with them. Apart from paint and lube industry
that together account for around 90% of its business, the company is now
No. Of Shares 27.69 m
focusing on food and FMCG segment which seems to be a promising market.
Face value 5.0 Since MTPL is the pioneer in India and has the first mover advantage in
FY15 DPS 2.0 offering inhouse IML (4%5% premium over other labeling methods) decoration
Dividend Yld (FY15 at current which allows human touch free labeling, its prospects in hygiene conscious
1.5% food segment look bright. It is already supplying to Vadilal, Kwality, Amul,
prices)
Cadbury etc.
Free Float 66.1%
Market Cap (Rs m) 3,572 In edible oil (5 litre and 15 litre pack) segment alone, the market is around Rs
10 billion of which the company expects to grab 10% in next one to two years.
Premium Search This implies around 35% of sales value in FY5. It has already received orders
from clients like ConAgra, Adani Wilmar, Cargill, to name a few.
Enter Company Name
Apart from this, incremental production from recently added capacities in India
and RAK plant offer growth visibility. The management is quite confident of
Rs 100 Invested Is Now Worth
better growth in future and intends to capitalise on the opportunities in Gulf
region (Iran) as well.
What deserves a special mention here that the company is much ahead of the
curve in this industry and beats competition hands down when it comes to
technological edge. It is the only rigid plastic packaging company in the world
that makes robots (more efficient than imported robots and at one third of the
cost of imported robots). Further, it is the only company in the world to have
complete backward integrated manufacturing. This allows the company to
offer world class quality packaging products to clients, cost efficient operations
and strong reputation among clients. Most importantly, it lends the company
first mover advantage in this industry.
View Updated Chart
As the company grows further in different segments and share of IML goes up,
Stock Price Performance profitability is likely to improve. Coming to financials, the company has enjoyed
(as on 14th Mar 2016) 18% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in profits in last 5 years. Operating
cash flows have been positive and return ratios attractive. The average return
Mold Tek Pack Index*
on equity for last 5 years at 20%. On the top of that, the company has been
1Yr 18.0% 7.1% paying dividends since last 8 years. The average dividend payout ratio for last
3Yr 83.7% 18.6% 5 years stands at 46%. The debt to equity ratio for the company has also
5Yr 39.0% 5.5%
come down significantly (from 1.2 times in FY14 to less than 0.2 times in FY
* BSE Smallcap
15) and lies well within our comfort zone.
Returns over 1 year are compounded annual averages
(CAGR) Going forward, we expect return ratios to improve and profits of the company to
grow at higher CAGR.
Shareholding (Dec2015)
As such, we recommend investors to Buy the stock at current price.
Category (%)
Promoters 33.9 Within your overall exposure to equities, please ensure that you broadly
Foreign Portfolio Investors 2.7
follow our suggested asset allocation. We suggest that no single small
cap stock should comprise more than 23% of the total stock portfolio.
Mutual funds 16.7
Financial Institutions 0.5 Please note that the stock does not make it to the list of top stocks to buy
Others 46.3 this month as we would like to have some more margin of safety in the
valuations
Total 100.0
Rationale for Valuation
As per our estimates, the net profit is expected to grow at a compound average
growth rate of 24% (FY 15FY 20E). With debt coming down and expected
margin improvement on account of growth in new markets and across
segments, the return ratio (on net worth capital) is also expected to improve in
future.
We have valued Mold Tek Packaging Ltd on Price to earnings multiple basis
and have assigned a target multiple of 12 times (as compared to trailing twelve
months P/E multiple of 17 times) to the earnings in FY 20.As such, we have
arrived at a target price of Rs 215 for the company from FY 20 perspective.
This implies point to point returns of 66% and average annual returns
(CAGR) of around 15% (including dividend yield). We recommend investors to
Buy the stock at current prices. However, please do not Buy the stock if the
stock price exceeds Rs 145.
Please note that the stock does not make it to the list of top stocks to buy
this month as we would like to have some more margin of safety in the
valuations.
Within your overall exposure to equities, please ensure that you broadly
follow our suggested asset allocation. We suggest that no single small
cap stock should comprise more than 23% of the total stock portfolio.
Financials at a glance
(Rs m) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Sales 1,497 1,743 1,920 2,537 2,850 2,748 3,195 3,955 4,529 5,358
Sales growth (%) 16.5% 10.2% 32.1% 12.3% 3.6% 16.3% 23.8% 14.5% 18.3%
Operating profit 185 211 200 295 400 441 527 672 770 911
Operating profit margin (%) 12.4% 12.1% 10.4% 11.6% 14.0% 16.1% 16.5% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Net profit 81 92 58 91 169 238 270 360 416 496
Net profit margin (%) 5.4% 5.3% 3.0% 3.6% 5.9% 8.6% 8.5% 9.1% 9.2% 9.3%
Balance Sheet
Current assets 475 570 664 850 877 788 991 1,494 1,653 1,851
Fixed assets 402 577 729 745 743 1,055 1,148 1,150 1,300 1,473
Investments 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
Other assets 16 38 25 29 41 38 38 38 38 38
Total Assets 924 1,216 1,449 1,656 1,693 1,913 2,208 2,713 3,023 3,393
Current liabilities 202 232 269 418 331 344 366 402 430 470
Net worth 327 463 491 525 1,157 1,301 1,464 1,683 1,935 2,235
Loan funds 386 512 665 655 145 200 310 560 590 620
Other liabilities 9 9 25 58 60 68 68 68 68 68
Total liabilities 924 1,216 1,449 1,656 1,693 1,913 2,208 2,713 3,023 3,393
Valuations
(Rs m) FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Revenue (Rs m) 1,497 1,743 1,920 2,537 2,850 2,748 3,195 3,955 4,529 5,358
PAT (Rs m) 81 92 58 91 169 238 270 360 416 496
EPS (Rs) 2.9 3.3 2.1 3.3 6.1 8.6 9.8 13.0 15.0 17.9
Price to earnings (x) 44.2 39.0 62.1 39.5 21.2 15.1 13.3 9.9 8.6 7.2
Price to sales (x) 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
Price to book value (x) 11.0 7.7 7.3 6.8 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6
Performance Review
The last one month brought relief to the markets after a bad start to 2016. It is unclear if this is just a relief rally or if the markets
have found a bottom. The Union Budget brought some cheer as the government reiterated its intention to stick to its fiscal deficit
targets. However, the budget was a lost opportunity in our view.
In last one month, BSE Sensex has gained around 5%, while BSE Smallcap index gained about 2.7%.
The recent volatility in the markets has caused significant damage to sentiments. This has resulted in major corrections in many
speculative stocks. At the same time many fundamentally strong stocks have seen their valuations fall. We believe investors
should take advantage of the situation and buy good quality stocks for the longterm.
We will keep updating you about such opportunities through our special reports and results analysis for the stocks under coverage.
Please keep a track of the same. Also, please make sure that your allocation to a single small cap stock does not exceed
2%3% of your portfolio. Further, please keep the maximum buy limits and suggested asset allocation limits in mind while
acting on respective recommendations.
Let us turn our focus to the performance review of our Hidden Treasure recommendations.
The stock of CanFin Homes has appreciated about 15% in the last one month. The steep rally has been on the back of strong
emphasis on affordable housing in the Union Budget 201617. On the demand side, the government proposed to give tax waiver on
additional interest of Rs 50,000 per annum to firsttime home buyers for housing loans up to Rs 3.5 million.
On the supply side, the government has announced tax benefits for real estate companies constructing affordable housing units.
These include a 100% deduction on profits, a service tax exemption and an excise duty exemption on ready mix concrete used at
the construction site. These measures are expected to spur growth in affordable dwelling units, which will propel demand for small
ticket housing loans. That, in turn, will benefit HFCs present in this segment.
Since CanFin Homes is a strong player in housing finance market in South India with average loan ticket size of Rs 1.8 million,
there has been a rally in its stock price. At current valuations, the stock offers limited upside. We therefore change our view on
the stock to Hold.
We have updated our estimates on Indoco Remedies for FY20. Consequently, we have also rolled over our target price to Rs 420
based on our FY20 estimates. The company has been facing delays in drug approvals in the US market. This has led to
postponement in the launch of some drugs too. Further, we have also accounted for higher depreciation. On the positive side, the
company is done with the restructuring exercise of its sales force, which help in better growth going forward. Taking all these
aspects into consideration and based on our revised target price, the current price does not offer sufficient margin of safety to
invest in the stock. However, investors who have stock in their portfolio can continue to Hold on to it.
Open Position Table
Company Reco. Date View Reco. Target Prices as Change View as on Expected
Price (Rs) Price (Rs) on (%) ** 11th return ***
11th March
March 2016
2016
Page Industries 15Jan09 Buy 305 17,377 11,372 3629% Hold 53%
eClerx Services Ltd # 14Mar09 Buy 48 1,485 1,310 2645% Hold 13%
Balkrishna Industries Ltd * 15Oct09 Buy 76 834 601 687% Buy 39%
City Union Bank # 15Jan10 Buy 23 129 85 269% Buy 52%
Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals 15Feb10 Buy 122 250 165 35% Hold 52%
Savita Oil Technologies Ltd * 15Jun11 Buy 538 850 475 12% Hold 79%
Kolte Patil Developers Ltd * 15Oct13 Buy 76 250 117 54% Buy 114%
Indoco Remedies ^ 15Nov13 Buy 98 420 280 187% Hold 50%
Under
Accelya Kale Solutions Ltd ^ 14Mar14 Buy 691 880 27% Hold NA
review
VST Tillers & Tractors Ltd 15Apr14 Buy 970 2,000 1,440 48% Hold 39%
MT Educare Ltd 14Aug14 Buy 127 234 158 24% Hold 48%
CanFin Homes # * ^ 14Oct14 Buy 429 1,180 1,010 135% Hold 17%
Orbit Exports 15Nov14 Buy 363 530 277 24% Buy 91%
Navneet Education Ltd * 15Dec14 Buy 97 140 82 15% Buy 71%
Mayur Uniquoter * 14Mar15 Buy 449 640 409 9% Buy 56%
Fluidomat Ltd @ 24Mar15 Buy 234 400 170 27% Buy 135%
Infinite Computer Solution 11Apr15 Buy 296 423 192 35% Hold 120%
Gulshan Polyols * 15May15 Buy 332 500 303 9% Buy 65%
Ambika Cotton Mills * 15Jul15 Buy 1,052 1,420 804 24% Buy 77%
Vinati Organics Ltd 15Oct15 Buy 430 740 410 5% Buy 80%
Sintex Industries * 14Nov15 Buy 100 139 72 28% Buy 93%
Ruchira Papers * 15Jan16 Buy 55 95 62 12% Buy 53%
Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd 15Feb16 Buy 272 496 255 6% Buy 95%
MoldTek Packaging Ltd ! 14Mar16 Buy 129 215 129 0% Buy 66%
** Calculated by dividing current price by recommended price
* Based on estimates for FY18
# Adjusted for stock split/bonus/rights issue
^ Revision with respect to previous monthly review
@ While Fluidomat was recommended with 'But at lower price' view on 15th January 2015, the view was revised to Buy on 24th March 2015 with recommendation
price of Rs 234. 'Change (%)' has been calculated accordingly.
! Price as on 14th March 2016
***Please note: Subscribers must note that stocks with the highest expected returns may not necessarily be fundamentally the safest ones to
invest your money. These stocks also need to be evaluated on various qualitative parameters like management quality, competitive advantage
and stability in earnings and profit margins. We strongly recommend subscribers to go through our latest updates on all stocks before making
any investment decisions.
The Top Stocks To Buy Now
Allow us to introduce you to the logic, our thought process and selection criteria for the top stocks to buy. Now, as we are aware, it
is a tough task for investors to choose a handful of Best buys from amongst our buy recommendation. That is the reason we
decided to include this feature in our reports, where we will do the job of short listing the best buys. The 'must have' criteria for
stocks to be eligible in the list of best buys are a high rating on the ERMTM. The additional level of filter will be their return potential
over a period of four five years. However, as you understand, the list will not be static but will evolve over time.
As you can see in the Performance review, we currently have a 'Buy' view on fourteen stocks. Out of these, seven stocks
make it to the list of 'Top Stocks to Buy now', being available at attractive valuations. Further, their ERMTM scores too qualify
for featuring in the list.
Please note that the stock does not make it to the list of top stocks to buy this month as we would like to have some more
margin of safety in the valuations before including it in the list.
As the prices of these stocks change, we will tell you whether to buy more of them or hold on to them in the coming months.
Meanwhile, if there are few other smallcap stocks that we really like and find attractive, we will add them too to this list.
Please do pay attention to our latest views on the stocks mentioned in this list every month. It will help you decide where to invest
your surplus funds. Having said that, irrespective of the number of stocks you buy, you must ensure that no single small cap
stock comprises more than 2 to 3% of your overall portfolio. Also, kindly follow the suggested asset allocation while
investing in stocks.
Here is our list of top stocks to buy
Balkrishna Industries Ltd
Orbit Exports
Navneet Education
Ambika Cotton Mills
Vinati Organics Ltd
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd
Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd (HMVL)
Richa Agarwal (Research Analyst), Managing Editor, Hidden Treasure has over 7 years of experience as an equity
research analyst. She routinely scours the small cap universe for fundamentally strong companies trading at attractive
prices. Having degrees in both finance as well as engineering has served her well in analysing business models across
the small cap space. Richa is also the specialist in our team for the Oil & Gas sector.
Where Hidden Treasure Fits In...
We recommend that investors should decide their exposure to equities, which is only
one part of the overall investment portfolio, after they have kept aside some cash.
While we are no experts in wealth management, we believe keeping aside some safe
cash is absolutely necessary. Not only will this cash take care of your liquidity needs,
but it will also come handy during market declines. Particularly when there will be
opportunities to pick up fundamentally strong stocks at cheap valuations. For some of
you this cash component could be 6 months of usual monthly expenditure, for others
36 months. You need to decide what amount works for you, and then set it aside.
Maybe in a FD, or in a pure liquid fund. Or maybe just cash at home!
Having decided what portion of your overall portfolio will be in equities, it is time to decide the allocation of stocks within your
equity portfolio.
As your experience will tell you, stock markets tend to be very volatile. And putting too much money in a single stock or sector can
be very risky. That is why we recommend to our subscribers to have a welldiversified equity portfolio comprising the appropriate
proportion of small cap, mid cap and large cap/ bluechip stocks. Based on their relative riskiness, we have created an asset
allocation pyramid that can help you in deciding how much money you should invest in a stock. However, it must be noted that the
allocation levels could differ from person to person depending on the risk appetite.
Small cap stocks are inherently more risky compared to bluechip or mid cap stocks. On the brighter side, they present a huge
growth potential. It is not unusual for a good small cap stock to turn a multibagger in a matter of months. But on the flipside, there
is a high risk attached. We'll tell you straightaway that not all small cap stocks tend to be outperformers. In fact, we have seen
small cap stocks plunging 8090% when things turn sour. That is the reason small caps are not recommendable to those having a
low risk profile. Even for investors having an appetite for slightly more risk, not more than 10% of one's portfolio should be
invested in small cap stocks. This means that a single small cap stock should not form more than 23% of your
portfolio.This will ensure that even if your investment in a particular stock turns out to be a failure, it will not have a very adverse
impact on your overall portfolio.
What does 'Closed Position' mean?
Hidden Treasure recommendations are meant to meet the target prices within a time frame of five years. So when the stock meets
target price or completes the time frame we 'close the recommendation'. However, since we keep reviewing our assumptions and
estimates for the stock even in the interim, the view or target price on the stock may warrant a change. This could be a revision
upwards or downwards. In such cases, if the previous recommendation on the stock is no longer valid we close that
recommendation. So we essentially close recommendations either by giving a Sell view or putting out a changed view.
How to read the returns calculations?
For positions that are not closed returns are calculated from date of recommendation till date.
For closed positions, there can be two types of calculations.
Assuming we initially gave a Buy on a stock with no subsequent recommendations on the same stock. In that case the
calculation is fairly simple. The returns shown in this case is simply the change in stock price from the date of
recommendation till the date on which the position was closed.
Now let us take a case where we initiated with a Buy (1st position) and subsequently came with another recommendation
(2nd position) on the same stock. Let us assume that the subsequent recommendation was also a buy.
In such cases, the return calculation depends on whether the 1st position is closed or not. If the first position is closed
before we reiterate buy then the return on the first position will be calculated as shown previously.
However, if 1st position was not closed before we reiterated buy, then the return calculation is from the earlier buy
recommendation till the date on which the position was closed. Basically where we have reiterated view on a stock we try to
show cumulative returns. The same logic applies with Hold recommendations as well.
Now let us look at Sell recommendations. There can be two situations here.
If there is no recommendation subsequent to the Sell recommendation we show maximum drop in stock price from date of
sell recommendation till date.
If the Sell recommendation is followed up by another recommendation, we show maximum drop in stock price between the
two recommendation dates.
Basically we have tried to cover all hypothetical instances in this note that may help you better understand the return calculations
and closed positions of our recommendations. If you have any query pertaining to it please do write in to us for further clarifications.
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objective of the recommendation service.
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the stock at current market price.
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valuations keeping in mind the tenure and the objective of the service.
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recommendation service.
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