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Team Carnelian
2 hours ago
6 min read
To sum it, there are two big trends in making as we see - the Manufacturing
Shift and Infrastructure Spending. India is expected to double its
manufacturing GDP to USD 1tn by 2026 and simultaneously spend heavily
on infrastructure development. Both these have a significant multiplier
impact on the capex cycle. For almost 10 years now, India has been
suffering from a poor capex cycle and capital formation, which has led to
poor operating leverage for businesses which are catering to capex across
industries. That’s where lies another pot of gold!
For the period 2003 - 2008, out of 440 companies having a Market Cap over
Rs.1,000crs, 36 companies gave returns > 50x, 26 companies greater than
25x and 47 companies > 10x.
Similar returns are long awaited as the variables which are key to such a
setting have been missing since a long time. Corporate capex recovery,
credit formation, benign demand environment across key sectors were few
missing links. Everyone is keenly waiting for the capex cycle recovery as it
is one of the most important economic factors and a critical component for
sustainable long term economic growth. In the absence of any meaningful
contribution from private capex since long, the burden of capital
expenditure was largely a key agenda for the government. Though the
government has largely played its part, superior economic growth is
missing since long for want of equal contribution from private and
household capex.
It was a lost decade for India when it comes to meaningful investments and
capex post 2003-08 which can largely be attributed to weaker balance
sheets of banks, elevated NPA’s (11.2% in 2018), leveraged balance-sheet of
corporates, excess real estate inventory, excess supply across sectors and
short-term impact of notable transformational initiatives like GST, RERA,
Demonetization etc., the cumulative impact of which resulted into a
significant drop in corporate and household capex.
Though the intensity of capex was not at a desired level in the last decade,
lot of things were happening at a structural level which is setting the stage
just right for the next decade of high investment cycle. If we analyse the
current phase of the Indian economy, we find a lot of similarity with 2003-
2008. The first few years in that phase was marked by excess liquidity, low
inflation, bottoming out of NPA’s, improving commodity prices, strong
private participation from steel, cement and power sectors, positive global
outlook and a strong real estate market, which we interestingly are
observing in the current period too.
We are very excited with the similar setting in current phase of the
economy and strongly believe a similar trend will play out; we derive a
lot of comfort from the following key attributes.
1) Saving arising out of corporate tax cuts (25.2% from 34%) and low
interest rate - It is estimated that corporates will save in excess of Rs 1.5tn
every year which largely went into deleveraging initially but going forward
it will boost capex significantly. Lower interest rates saving will further
contribute Rs 50bn per annum.
6) Recovery in real estate sectors – RERA has brought about the much
need consolidation and implementation of best practices in the sector.
Lower interest rates, increasing affordability due to time correction, and
incentives in form of lower stamp duty, etc. has given it the much-needed
push. Early signs of demand revival are visible in the form of growing sales
from Q3-2020 onwards. Part of the Industry is also moving towards an asset
light model which should accelerate the overall project execution.
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