Statistical Counting Techniques

• Tree diagram

• Multiplication Rule

• The Factorial

• Permutations

• Combinations
 Tree diagrams may be used in to help determine the number of possible events.

Example 1:
Draw a tree diagram to find the number of ways we can
form a lunch that consists of a beverage, a bread choice,
and a sandwich filling. There are 2 different beverages
(soda or juice), 3 different types of breads (bagel, rye, or
white), and 4 different kinds of fillings (cheese, pastrami,
roast beef, or turkey).

We list each beverage choice. For every beverage choice

there are three bread choices. For every bread choice,
there are four filling choices. We draw a line to each
possibility, and then list the possible combinations. If we
count the number of possibilities, we see that there are 24
possible outcomes.
There is another way to determine possible outcomes without having to draw a tree, which can quickly become
cumbersome when there are many different choices. This is by using the fundamental counting principal.

The fundamental counting principle provides us with a way to determine the number of possible outcomes when we
have several different options.

The fundamental counting principle states that we can simply multiply the number of different choices to find the
number of possible outcomes. In the example shown for creating tree diagram, we are asked to find the number of
possible outcomes if a lunch menu allows you the choice of selecting a beverage (out of 2 - soda or juice), bread choice
(out of 3 - bagel, rye, or white), and filling (out of 4 - cheese, pastrami, roast beef, or turkey). We can use the
fundamental counting principle: 2 * 3 * 4 = 24, so there are 24 possible outcomes.
Example 2:
How many different kinds of beverages and bread can be made from 3 beverage choices (coffee, tea, juice) and 3 bread
choices (bagel, muffin, scone)?

Example 3:
How many outcomes are possible if you toss a coin and roll a 6-sided number cube?

Example 4:
A cell phone company offers 3 payment plans, 4 styles of phones, and 6 decorative phone wraps. How many phone options
are available?
Example 5:
A license plate is to be formed of 4 characters: first two will be letters and the last two will be numbers. How many such
plates can be formed if
- no repetition is allowed

- repetition of digits and letters is allowed

- first digits must be 9 and repetition of digits and letters is not allowed

- first letter must be W, K, or L and the first digit must be 0, 1, or 2. Repetitions not allowed.
Example 6:

Given the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, find how many 4-digit numbers can be formed from them if the number must be odd,
without any repeated digits.

Note: If some operations must be performed in a special way, it is usually advisable to do it first. However, for
nonspecial operation the order in time of space filling is often arbitrary.
Example 7:

Bill's Pizza offers pepper, onion, sausage, mushrooms, and anchovies as toppings for the plain cheese base of the pizzas.
How many different pizzas can be made?
Example 8:

Three different flags are available. In how many ways can a signal with at least 3 flags be arranged on a flagpole, if the
order of the flags on the flagpole counts?

The addition principle. If two operations are mutually exclusive, and the first can
done in m ways, and the second in n ways, then one operation or the other can be
done in m+n ways.
Example 9:

In how many ways can 3 books, denoted A, B, and C, be arranged in order on a shelf?
In how many ways can 5 books be arranged in order?
In how many ways can 7 books be arranged in order?
In how many ways can n books be arranged in order on a shelf?
Permutation. A permutation of a number of objects is any arrangements of these objects in a definite order.
To "permute" a set of objects means to arrange (order) them in a definite order.

The number of permutations of a set of n different objects, taken all together is

𝒏! = 𝒏 ∙ 𝒏 − 𝟏 ∙ 𝒏 − 𝟐 ∙ ⋯ ∙ 𝟏

In how many ways can we reorganize n different objects? – In 𝒏! ways.

FACTORIAL is an operator on non-negative integers defined as:

𝑛! = 𝑛 ∙ 𝑛 − 1 ∙ 𝑛 − 2 ∙ ⋯ ∙ 1 (the product of all whole numbers from 1 to n)

0! = 1 (there is only one way to order zero objects)

Note: Multiplication principle takes order into account. However, it doesn't matter which space on the shelf is filled
first. Multiplication principle still applies and gives the same answer. It helps us in analyzing the problem if we think of
performing a definite sequence of operations one after another, even though we might do things in different order. In
fact, in the previous example, the three books can all be put on the shelf at the same time, rather than one after another;
but such way of looking at problem provides no insight into its solution, whereas the one-book-after another approach
does.
1, 2, 3, … n,…

Example 10:
Find:

4! =

3! =

5!
=
3!

Note: 10! = 10 ∙ 9!

100! = 100 ∙ 99!

𝑛! = 𝑛 ∙ 𝑛 − 1 !
(𝑛 + 1)! = (𝑛 + 1) ∙ 𝑛!
Example 11:

A television news director has 8 news stories to present on the evening news.

- How many different ways can the stories be presented?

- If only 3 of the stories can be presented, how many possible ways can just those 3 stories be presented?

- Can we generalize how we found the second question?

Permutation Formula
Order matters

, 𝒓≤𝒏

Example 12:

P
5 3=

P
9 4=

P
12 9 =
Example 13:
A combination lock will open when the right choice of three numbers (from 1 to 30, inclusive) is selected. How many
different lock combinations are possible assuming no number is repeated?

Example 14:
From a club of 24 members, a President, Vice President, Secretary, Treasurer and Historian are to be elected. In how many
ways can the offices be filled?

Example 15:
How many words can be formed from the letters of the word HYPERBOLA, taken all together? In how many of these
words will the letters h and y occur together? In how many will the letters h and y not occur together?
Example 16:
Find the number of permutations with letters EYE.

Permutations with Repetition:

Example 17:
Find the number of distinguishable permutations of the letters of the following words:

a) MIAMI b) VIRGINIA
Combinations

Example 18:
In how many ways can a reader select 3 books, without regard to their order, from a set of 4 different books denoted by A,
B, C, and D?

If the order did matter, then the number of arrangements would be equal: …

An entirely different problem arises if we wish to make a selection of 3 books from A, B, C, and D without taking order
into account. There are only 4 possible selections:

ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD.

For example, we do not list ACB because it is the same selection as ABC, since order does not count. Thus, to remove
duplicates - there are 3! in each selection, we have to divide them out:

Each selection in the above list is called a combination of the 4 books taken 3 at a time. The total number of combinations
is denoted by

Why are the number of combinations less than the number of permutations?
Example 19:

A standard deck of 52 cards has 4 suits and 13 different cards in each suit.
If the order in which cards are dealt is not important, how many different 5-card hands are possible?

If order did matter, we would use ____________________________________________

However, order does NOT matter, so remove duplicates.

There are 5! repeats – divide them out _________________________________________

 A combination is an arrangement of items in which order does not matter.
Number of combinations of n objects taken r at the time.

5 C3 =
Example 20:

A student must answer 4 out of 6 essay questions on a test. In how many different ways can the student
select the questions?

Does order matter in this situation? _____________

What is the combination? _____________________

Compute: __________________________________
 Permutation or Combination?

- Picking three team members from a group.

- Picking a team captain, pitcher, and shortstop from a group.

- Picking first, second and third place winners.

- Selecting three students to attend a conference in New York.

- Selecting a lead and an understudy for a school play.

- Assigning students to their seats on the first day of school.

- Selecting 3 numbers for a combination lock.

Combinations and permutations can only be used if repetition is not allowed.

When repetition is allowed, use the multiplication rule.
Probability
Probability (classical probability) is the measure of the likelihood an event is to occur.

Example 16:
Find probability of rolling a 4 on a six-sided number cube.

Example 17:
What is the probability of choosing a red candy in a bag that contains 4 red candies and 6 blue candies?
In counting outcomes, it is sometimes helpful to create tree diagrams or apply the fundamental counting principle.

Example 18:
Write the sample space (all possible outcomes) for the following event:
- A couple plans to have two kids. List all possible gender sequences.

- A coin is tossed three times.

- Find: P(all heads), P(one head), P(2nd toss is head)

Example 19:
What are the possible number of outcomes if one 6- sided number cube is rolled and one card is drawn from a 52-card deck?

Example 20:
One card is drawn from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that it is
- An ace?

- A red card?

- A diamond?

- Not an ace?
Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability
The process above describes theoretical probability. This is what mathematically would expect to happen. Experimental
probability describes what actually happens in actually performing the event. If we to actually draw candies from the bag in
the example 2 (putting back the candy after we draw it), each draw is called a trial. If we perform 5 trials, we may not see a
probability of 2/5. However, if we perform 100 trials, we would most likely see the probability getting closer to 2/5. If we
performed an infinite number of trials, we expect the probability to be 2/5, our theoretical probability.
Experimental probability is what actually occurs when conducting a probability experiment.

Example 21: The table shows the outcomes of a coin tossing experiment.

Outcomes Frequency

Heads 14

Tails 11

1) What is the experimental probability of getting tails?

2) What is the theoretical probability of getting tails?

Subjective Probability

Subjective probability is where you use your opinion to find probabilities.

For example:

• You think you have an 80% chance of your best friend calling today, because her car broke down
yesterday and she’ll probably need a ride.
• You think you have a 50/50 chance of getting the job you applied for, because the other applicant is
also very qualified.
• You’re taking your dog to the vet today, and based on past experience you’re pretty confident you’ll
need over $100 for the bill.

No calculations are involved in subjective probability; it involves opinions (usually based on your past
experiences) only.
Compound Events
Compound events consist of two or more events.
Mutually exclusive
Events do not occur at the same time - either one or the other will occur.

For example, if I am rolling a six-sided number cube, rolling an odd number and a 2 are mutually exclusive - either one or the
other will occur. To find the probability of mutually exclusive compound events, we add the probability of each individual
event.
Example 22:

P(odd or 2)?

P(odd or 2) = P(odd) + P(2) = 3/6 + 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

The formula for finding the probability of mutually exclusive events is:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

The formula for finding the probability of not mutually exclusive events is:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ˗ P(A and B)

Example of not mutually exclusive events: Students that take statistics and students that take algebra. There might be those
that take both.
Example 23:
Refer to the table which summarizes the results of testing for a certain disease.

Positive Test Results Negative Test Result

Subject has the disease 85 7

Subject does not have the disease 28 153

If 1 subject is randomly selected from the 273 subjects given a test, find the probability of selecting a subject who had a
positive test result or has a disease.
Complement of an Event
ത is the set of all events in which 𝐸 does not occur.
The complement of an event 𝐸 (denoted 𝐸)
Example 24:

𝐸 =get heads on coin flip

𝐸ത =get tails on coin flip

𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝐸ത = 1
Independent and dependent compound events occur when we have a first event AND then one more additional
events. When the outcome of one event does not influence the outcome of another, we have an independent compound
event. To find the probability of independent compound events, we multiply the probabilities of each individual event.

Example 25:
We have a bag of 10 candies with 4 of them red and 6 of them blue. Find the probability of first drawing a red candy and
then drawing a blue candy, if we put back whatever we drew the first time before drawing the second time.

P(red) and P(blue), with replacement (this means we will be putting the candy back after the first draw)

P(red) =
P(blue) =

P(red) and P(blue) =

The formula for finding the probability of independent events is:

P(A and B, with replacement) = P(A) * P(B)
If we do NOT replace the candy, we have a dependent compound event. We still multiply the probability of the events, but
the probability of the second event depends on the outcome of the first event, because we will not be putting back the candy
drawn, so the contents of the bag of candy will be different.
Find P(red) and P(blue), without replacement (we will not be putting the candy back)

P(red) =

After we pick out a red candy (and don't put it back), the bag now contains 3 red candies and 6 blue candies, for a total of 9
candies.
P(blue) =

P(red) and P(blue) without replacement =

The formula for finding the probability of dependent events is:

P(A and B, without replacement) = P(A)*P(B following A)
Example 26:
In a bag there are 3 white, 12 purple and 15 blue balls. Assuming that balls are put back into the bag after each drawing,
what is the probability that when 3 balls are drawn
- First is white, second is purple, and third is blue?

- All of them are white?

- None of them are purple?

Example 27:
Solve Example 26, assuming that there is no replacement.
5% Guideline for Cumbersome Calculations
If calculations are cumbersome and if a sample size is no more than 5% of the size of the population, treat the selections as
being independent (even if the selections are made without replacement, so that they are technically dependent).
Example 28:
A drug has a cure of 95%. If three people take this drug, what is the probability that all three will be cured?

Example 29:
Given that 40% of the population above the age of 25 are college graduates in a city, what is the probability that when two
people above the age of 25 are selected at random,
- Both are college graduates?

- Neither is a college graduate?

- One is a College Graduate and the other is not?

Example 30:
A company produces 30% defective items. If three items are randomly selected, what is the probability that
• All three are defective?

• None of three are defective?

• At least one of the three is defective?

Example 31:
In town, 40% of the phone numbers are not listed. Four numbers are randomly selected, what is the probability that at
least one is listed?

Example 32:
There is a 90% chance that Sam will not get a speeding ticket on a day when he is actually speeding. What is the
probability that he will get at least one ticket out of 50 times?
Odds provide another way to predict outcomes. While probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible
outcomes, odds for something happening are the probability of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes.

Example: What are the odds of rolling a 2 from a 6-sided number cube?
The odds would be: ways to roll a 2 : ways to not roll a 2
There is only 1 way to roll a 2 with a 6-sided number cube, but there are 5 ways to not roll a 2. Therefore the odds for
rolling a 2 would be 1:5.

Notice that adding the two numbers in an odds ratio gives you the total number of possible outcomes.

Contrast this with probability, where the ratio of rolling a 2 would be 1/6, the number of ways to roll a 2 compared with the
total number of possibilities.
The above example represents the odds for something happening. We can also use odds to represent the chance of the odds
against something happening. The odds against something happening is the opposite ratio of odds for something
happening. Odds against an event would be the ratio of the number of ways an event can't happen to the number of ways it
can. In the above example, the odds against rolling a 2 with a 6-sided number cube would be 5:1.

Example 33: Find the odds of a sum of 11 if a pair of number cubes are rolled.
Number of ways to get a sum of 11 _________
Number of ways to NOT get a sum of 11_____
ODDS FOR: ___________________________
Example 34: In a bag of marbles, 30 are blue, 15 are orange, 20 are yellow, and 10 are green. What are the odds against
drawing a green marble from the bag?
Number of ways to draw a green __________
Number of ways NOT to draw a green______
ODDS AGAINST:______________________
Conditional Probability
When finding a conditional probability, you are finding the probability that an event A will occur, given that another event,
event B, has occurred.

You can think of the line as representing “given”. On the left is the event of interest, and on the
right is the event we are assuming has occurred.

Example 35: A survey asked full time and part time students how often they
have visited the college’s tutoring center in the last month. The results are
shown in the table .
Suppose that a surveyed student is randomly selected.

(a) What is the probability the student visited the tutoring center four or more
times, given that the student is full time?

(b) Suppose that a student is part time. What is the probability that the
student visited the tutoring center one or fewer times?

(c) If the student visited the tutoring center four or more times, what is the
probability he or she is part time?
 In some situations, you will need to use the following formula to find a conditional probability.

Example 36:

In a sample of 40 vehicles, 18 are red, 6 are trucks, and 2 are both. Suppose that a randomly selected vehicle is red. What
is the probability it is a truck?

Example 37:

A board game comes with a special deck of cards, some of which are black, and some of which are gold. If a card is
randomly selected, the probability it is gold is 0.20, while the probability it gives a second turn is 0.16. Finally, the
probability that it is gold and gives a second turn is 0.08.
Suppose that a card is randomly selected, and it allows a player a second turn. What is the probability it was a gold card?
Random variable is a variable determined by chance.
Types of Random Variables A. Qualitative Random Variable B. Quantitative Random Variable
The possible values vary in kind but not in numerical degree. They 1. Discrete Random Variable
are also called categorical variables. When the random variable can assume only a countable, sometimes
infinite, number of values. (The number of tosses to get the first
Head when flipping a fair coin.)

2. Continuous Random Variable

When the random variable can assume uncountable number of
values in a line interval. (Height of a STAT student, or the weight of a
chocolate chip cookie.)

Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables

1. There is a numerical (not categorical) random variable x, and its number values are associated with corresponding probabilities.

2. σ 𝑃 𝑥 = 1 where x assumes all possible values.

3. 0 ≤ 𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 1 for every individual value of the random variable x.

The mean, 𝜇, of a discrete random variable, also referred to as expected value, is given by

𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)

𝛿 2 = ෍ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥) or 𝛿 2 = ෍ 𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥) − 𝜇2

𝛿= ෍ 𝑥 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑥) − 𝜇2
Example 38: You buy one $10 raffle ticket for a new car valued at $15,000. Two thousand tickets are sold. What is the
expected value of your gain?

Example 39: A local club plans to invest $10000 to host a baseball game. They expect to sell tickets worth $15000. But if it
rains on the day of game, they won't sell any tickets and the club will lose all the money invested. If the weather forecast for
the day of game is 20% possibility of rain, is this a good investment?
Example 40: A company makes electronic gadgets. One out of every 50 gadgets is faulty, but the company doesn't know
which ones are faulty until a buyer complains. Suppose the company makes a $3 profit on the sale of any working gadget, but
suffers a loss of $80 for every faulty gadget because they have to repair the unit. Check whether the company can expect a
profit in the long term.

Example 41: A game has the following rules: You pay $5 to play the game. A die is rolled. If the outcome is 6, you make $20
(net earning) – otherwise you lose the 5 dollars.
a) What is the expected value?
b) How can this game be adjusted, so that this becomes a fair game (i.e expected value = 0)
Example 42: It costs $5 to play a game. The players are awarded $10 if the outcome is a face card, $25 if the outcomes is an
ace. In every other case the player loses the bet. What is the expected value?

Example 43: An insurance company sells a $500,000 one year term life insurance policy for costs $1,000. The probability
that the person will survive the year is .999. Find the expected value of this policy to the insurance company.
Binomial distribution

Definition. A discrete random variable X is a binomial random variable if:

An experiment, or trial, is performed in exactly the same way n times.
Each of the n trials has only two possible outcomes. One of the outcomes is called a "success," while the other is called a
"failure." Such a trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
The n trials are independent.
The probability of success, denoted p, is the same for each trial. The probability of failure is q = 1 − p.
The random variable X = the number of successes in the n trials.

The probability of having ‘x’ success out of ‘n’ trials in a binomial experiment is:
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑝 𝑞 ,
𝑥
where
𝑛 𝑛!
= 𝑛𝐶𝑥 = 𝑛−𝑥 !𝑥! ,
𝑥
p - the probability of success in any one trial,
q - the probability of failure in any one trial 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝 .

Mean of Binomial Distribution: 𝝁 = 𝒏 ∙ 𝒑

Standard Deviation of Binomial Distribution: 𝝈 = 𝒏𝒑𝒒
Example 44:
USAir is known to have a 90% on-time arrival record for flights between Miami and Charlotte. If 6 flights are selected at
random, find the probability that
a) All 6 arrive on time
b) The first two arrive on time and the rest of the flights are not on time.
c) Exactly 2 flights out of 6 arrive on time.
d) At least 2 flights out of 6 arrive on time.
e) At most 4 flights arrive on time.
Example 45:
A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of
a) No fives turning up?
b) 1 five?
c) 3 fives?
d) At least 1 five turning up?
e) At most 2 five turning up?

Example 46:
Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6
randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?
Identifying Significant Results
According to the range rule of thumbs, the vast majority of values lie within two standard deviations of the mean.
We should consider a value to be significant if it’s at least two standard deviations away from the mean.
We can therefore identify “significant” values as follows:
- Significantly low are (𝜇 − 2𝜎) or lower
- Significantly high are (𝜇 − 2𝜎) or higher
- Values in between are not significant

Identifying Significant Results with Probabilities:

Significantly high number of successes
𝑥 successes among n trials is a significantly high number of success if the probability of 𝑥 or more successes is 0.05 or less.
𝑃 𝑥 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 ≤ 0.05
Significantly low number of successes
𝑥 successes among n trials is a significantly low number of success if the probability of 𝑥 or fewer successes is 0.05 or less.
𝑃 𝑥 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑒𝑤𝑒𝑟 ≤ 0.05

0.05 is not absolutely right. Other values such 0.01 could be used to distinguish between results that are significant and those that are not.
If, under a given assumption, the probability of a particular outcome is very small and the outcome occurs significantly less than or
significantly greater than what we expect with that assumption, we conclude that the assumption is probably not correct.
 Identifying significant results

According to the range rule of thumbs, the vast majority of values should lie within 2 standard
deviations of the mean. Thus, we should consider a value to be significant if it is at least 2 standard
deviations away from the mean.

We can therefore identifying “significant” values as follow:

- Significantly low are (𝜇 − 2𝜎) or lower

- Significantly high are (𝜇 + 2𝜎) or higher

- Values are not significant if in between