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IHSM Poussin AcrlyicAcidValueChain March22
IHSM Poussin AcrlyicAcidValueChain March22
22 March 2018
Hilton Americas | Houston, TX, US
but mainly…
Acrylic Acid
Propylene
Acrylic acid
Macro economics/GDP
0 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
• Automotive Industry Architectural Coatings Produced
Residential US Construction Market Value
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Penetration %
economic factors Diaper 50
adoption
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Source: IHS Markit GDP per Capita in USD per annum © 2018 IHS Markit
• Disposable income
• Demographics Middle Class
400
Million Households
• Degree of urbanization Forecast
1,067kt
Global demand
N. America
1,283
16% EMEA & CIS N.E. Asia
1,640 4,621
20% 57%
Region
S. S.E. Asia
Capacity thousand America
metric tons
375
160 5%
2%
% world capacity
8
Million Metric Tons
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
90%
Operating Rate
80%
70%
60%
50%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
NAM WEP NEA
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
1,300
500
Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18 Dec-18
6.5
SAP 3.4
3.4
4.3
2-EHA 2.5
2.1
5.3
BA 2.1
2.5
5.3
Acrylic Acid 3.2
0.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Growth Rate (%)
NEA WEP NAM
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
4,000
Thousand Tons
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Capacity addition Demand
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
50 50
50
50
50
Operating Rate
Operating Rate
0 0% 0 0%
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 27 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 27
~ 200 Mt BA
~ 100 Mt BA
4
1
13
1
5 31%
Non Integrated
36
12
69%
Integrated into Propylene
5
4
8
800
H
Splitter • Fast growing domestic demand
WEP
600
Avg • Chequered reliability record
NEA Avg
NAM Avg
400
• China remains to prove itself as
200
global exporter…
0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0
Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Price comparison
1st
2,000 600 25%
Round 8
Pilot
Dollars Per Metric Ton
2nd 420
1,000 17%
Round 7
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
3rd
0 140 6%
Round 7
2,100
US Dollars per Metric Ton
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Trends Prices
Denis Poussin
Director \ Acrylates
+44 203 253 2623 tel
Denis.Poussin@ihsmarkit.com
London