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Pain declines but still elevated. Yes Bank reported a loss led by a sharp decline in CMP (`): 15
interest income due to interest reversal on recognition of fresh impairments and higher Fair Value (`): 11
provisions on these exposures. Deposit mobilization has improved which is positive but
BSE-30: 48,782
we are seeing volatile trends in asset quality (declined qoq) making it harder to predict
near term business direction and momentum. CET-1 at 11% is comfortable currently
but any fresh stress would be a negative outcome. Maintain SELL (FV unchanged).
YES Bank
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2021 2022E 2023E
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 15/11/SELL EPS (Rs) (1.4) (0.9) (0.1)
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 32-11 EPS growth (%) 89.4 37.2 89.4
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 365/5 P/E (X) (10.9) (17.3) (163.6) QUICK NUMBERS
ADTV-3M (bn) (Rs/US$) 1.8/0.1 P/B (X) 1.4 1.6 1.5
Shareholding pattern (%) BVPS 10.6 9.6 9.9 NII declined 23%
Promoters 0.0 RoE (%) (12.6) (6.8) (0.7)
yoy driven by
FPIs/MFs/BFIs 15.0/0.3/52.5 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
interest reversals
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M NII (Rs bn) 74 70 69
Absolute (6.7) (7.6) (47.8) PPOP (Rs bn) 44 40 43
Non-NPL stress at
Rel. to BSE-30 (5.3) (12.3) (64.0) Net profits (Rs bn) (35) (22) (2)
~9% of loans
Interest reversals and high credit costs push up losses
Retain SELL with
Yes Bank reported a loss led by high interest reversals and provisions for bad loans. Revenue Rs11 FV
increased on the back of a low base yoy, but declined ~50% qoq with NII declining ~60% led (unchanged)
by interest reversals. Operating profits declined ~90% qoq. These highlight the challenges in
forecasting revenue where impairment recognition is still not complete. Loan book was flat yoy
with corporate loan book declining 15% yoy while retail loans grew 23% yoy. Operating
expenses declined 8% yoy. The bank’s CET-1 ratio is at 11.2% which is well above the
regulatory limit despite the loss this quarter.
Even as we discuss the challenges for the bank, it is pertinent to note the remarkable recovery
in deposit mobilization in such a short period. Despite losing credibility over the past year the
bank has rebuild its reputation and reported an impressive ~33% yoy growth in retail term
deposits, 60% yoy growth in corporate term deposits and ~50% yoy growth in CASA in
FY2021. However, the bank is still far from normalcy. NPLs have still not normalized but
M B Mahesh, CFA
disclosures have improved making it easier to understand the stress book. Since FY2017, the
bank has reported ~30% of the peak loan book (FY2019) as slippages but there is still stress in
SMA book (8% of loans) some of which would get restructured in FY2022. The bank has a Nischint Chawathe
high coverage ratio (75% on NPL and 60% on all stress) and is optimistic that the slippages
would be lower than recovery but this is yet to be tested. Even if these challenges are addressed Abhijeet Sakhare
and credit costs are under control, the bank is still looking to compete in segments where the
large banks have built a strong franchise which implies that the return ratios, even if they do Ashlesh Sonje
recover, would still be weaker than that of peers. Finally, even if you do see recovery in return
ratios, we find valuations are not inexpensive to take a more constructive view given that any of Dipanjan Ghosh
the above challenges could persist for a much longer period than envisaged.
We maintain our SELL with an unchanged FV of Rs11. We value the bank at ~1.1X book for
RoEs which are likely to remain quite weak in the medium term. Confidence in building an
earnings trajectory is yet to emerge because the provisions required for bad loans are not easy
kspcg.research@kotak.com
to forecast today. Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL.
Banks YES Bank
Headline ratios. Reported gross NPL ratio was broadly flat qoq at ~15.4%, down from
16.8% in 4QFY210. This signifies some progress given the outstanding proforma GNPA
of ~Rs83 bn as on 3QFY21. Net NPL ratio was up ~180 bps qoq to 5.9%. This was a
result of high level of slippages during the quarter (~28% annualized) accompanied by
significant write-offs of ~Rs103 bn (~24% of opening advances, annualized). The
provision cover implies a PCR of ~66% on this book.
We have shared a snapshot of the other stressed portfolios for the bank and
corresponding provisions in Exhibit 3. Non-NPA stressed advances constitute ~8.8% of
advances for the bank, down from ~11.6% qoq.
Out of the outstanding SMA portfolio as on 3QFY21, ~Rs20 bn has already become
current. This gives us some comfort on the resolution of stress going forward.
Collections. Retail portfolio saw a collection efficiency of 96% in 4QFY21, up from ~95%
in 3QFY21. This is marginally lower than the collection efficiency of ~95% experienced in
the first two months of 4QFY20 (benchmark for pre-Covid performance).
We are still in the phase of building confidence in the operating profitability and asset
quality performance for the bank. It is hard to assess if the bank is conservative while it is
assessing its stress levels. Recent experiences from stressed asset resolution at Axis Bank
and ICICI Bank indicate that the situation does not normalize as swiftly as expected.
Hence, we continue to wait before building conviction on the bank’s outlook.
4QFY21
Loans Provisions Cover (%)
Gross NPL 286.1 188.0 65.7
Non-fund based NPL 16.7 3.8 22.9
Non-performing investment 65.9 60.7 92.1
SR 21.7 7.5 34.5
Standard restructured loans 12.4 0.8 6.0
Other standard exposures 11.8 4.9
Incremental expected Covid restructuring 25.0
Overdue (61-90 days) 24.6
Overdue (31-60 days) 88.9
Total stress 553.2 265.6 48.0
% of 4QFY21 loans 29.8 14.3
Non-NPA stress 162.8 5.7 3.5
% of 4QFY20 loans 8.8 0.3
Notes:
(1) 31-60 days and 61-90 days overdue portfolios exclude advances of ~Rs22 bn and ~Rs1.5 bn which are
instead shown as part of ‘incremental expected Covid restructuring’.
Exhibit 4: Gross NPL increased substantially in 2020 Exhibit 5: Slippages jumped sharply in 2020 and 4QFY21
NPL and coverage ratio, March fiscal year-ends, 1QFY18 – 4QFY21 Slippages and credit cost, March fiscal year-ends, 2014 - 2020,
(%) 1QFY21 – 4QFY21 (%)
Gross NPL (LHS) Net NPL (LHS) PCR (RHS) Slippages (%) Credit cost (%)
20 80 30.0
16 64 24.0
12 48 18.0
8 32 12.0
4 16 6.0
0 - -
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 7: Share of fee income from capital markets business has declined steadily since 2017
Breakup of fee income by business, March fiscal year-ends, 2016 - 2020 (%)
39 35 39 34
80 37
60 16
22 32 26
40 42
32
23
22 22
20
17 19 18
11 13
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Company
We see headwinds to near term NIM assumptions for the bank. Lending yields would be
under constant pressure as the bank moves away from the high margin corporate loan
portfolio to a less risky one and further shifts the loan mix towards retail and MSME. Given
the need to build a retail deposit base (102% CD ratio), Yes Bank continues to offer higher
premium on TD rates (~120bps) compared to peers.
Exhibit 8: Premium on Yes Bank’s deposit rates has declined for the short tenor, but remains high for
the long tenor
Comparison of term deposit rates offered by Yes Bank and frontline private sector banks, September 2019
onwards (%)
Source: Company
Exhibit 9: Improving share of CASA and retail term deposits Exhibit 10: Growth in both wholesale and retail term deposits
Break-up of funds, March fiscal year-ends, 2018 – 2020, 1QFY21 - Break-up of term deposits, March fiscal year-ends, 2018 – 2020,
4QFY21 (Rs bn) 1QFY21 – 4QFY21 (Rs bn)
2,800 1,280
2,100 960
1,524
1,400 1,276 640
1,204 923
1,021 1,083 795
700 773 870 320 617
525 551
314 389
- -
2018 2019 2020 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 2021 2018 2019 2020 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 2021
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 11: Reducing dependence on top few depositors has been a challenge for Yes Bank
Share of deposits with top 20 depositors, March fiscal year-ends, 2016 - 2020 (%)
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Company
We believe the bank’s strategy to shift to retail/SME is on the right track, we await greater
clarity on which specific segments will drive growth. Currently, the bank seems to be
focusing on the secured retail portfolio. 21% of the retail book is in secured business loans
and another ~31% is in auto loans (including CV).
Relative to bigger frontline banks, Yes Bank has the disadvantage of higher cost of funds
and lack of a strong customer base which can make cost of customer acquisition expensive.
While the bank is looking at exploiting its technological/payments leadership, we await
greater details to get more constructive on growth.
The management has guided towards ~15% loan growth in FY2022E. However, we remain
skeptical given the economic challenges and the bank’s positioning.
Exhibit 12: Share of retail loans increases to ~30%; wholesale down to 49%
Break-up of loans, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY18-4QFY21 (%)
4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 YoY (%)
Loan book (Rs bn) 2,035 2,147 2,396 2,439 2,415 2,363 2,245 1,861 1,714 1,645 1,669 1,697 1,669 (3)
Corporate and institutional 1,382 1,452 1,634 1,654 1,584 1,510 1,390 1,061 960 921 935 883 818 (15)
Business banking 197 187 199 190 188 182 168 153 137 148 134 136 150 10
Micro and small 208 208 220 224 239 239 242 236 223 197 200 204 200 (10)
Retail 248 301 343 371 403 432 445 413 408 378 401 475 501 23
% of loan book
Corporate and institutional 68 68 68 68 66 64 62 57 56 56 56 52 49 -700 bps
Business banking 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 100 bps
Micro and small 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 12 12 12 12 -100 bps
Retail 12 14 14 15 17 18 20 22 24 23 24 28 30 620 bps
Corporate and institutional Buisness banking Consumer banking Micro & small enterprise
100
13.0 12.3 10.2 9.9 13.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
40
65.1 67.7 67.9 65.6
56.0 56.0 56.0 52.0 49.0
20
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21
Source: Company
Exhibit 14: Exposure to CRE and construction/ EPC sectors continues to be high
Break-up of customer assets, March fiscal year-ends, 2014-3QFY21 (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21
Electricity 4.8 8.3 8.7 11.3 9.2 7.6 6.2 5.9 5.5 6.0
Commercial real estate 0.0 0.0 6.8 5.8 5.9 7.0 6.7 7.6 7.7 7.0
Other real estate 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 NA
Tech, ITES, Media 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 NA
Food processing 4.4 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 NA
Iron & Steel 3.5 3.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5 NA
Social & Commercial Infra 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.5 NA
Vehicles & equipments 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 NA
Construction/ EPC 2.9 3.1 6.0 7.3 7.9 10.0 10.7 11.1 10.6 10.0
Other metal/products 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 NA
Telecom 3.1 2.2 4.5 4.9 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 NA
Textiles 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 NA
Aviation 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 NA
Other industries 68.4 66.8 58.0 54.5 58.2 55.7 56.8 55.2 55.8 NA
Operating expenses down 13% yoy. The bank demonstrated a good performance on
the costs front. Staff expenses were down ~10% yoy, while other expenses were down
~7% yoy. The bank has shed a net of 65 branches in FY2021.
CET-1 at 11.2%. The high level of provisioning and consequent losses in 4QFY21
resulted in the CET1 ratio for the bank declining by ~190 bps qoq to 11.2%. CRAR for
the bank stands comfortable at ~17.5%.
11 6.5 6.7 7
8 2.1 4
5 0
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
20,000 102
15,000 84
10,000 66
5,000 48
0 30
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
Exhibit 17: Yes Bank has the highest percentage of employee cost to total cost among peer private banks
Employee cost as a percentage of overall costs, March fiscal year-ends, 2012-2023E (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Axis Bank 34.6 34.4 32.9 33.4 33.4 31.9 30.8 30.0 30.7 33.5 33.0 32.1
HDFC Bank 36.6 35.3 34.7 34.0 33.6 32.9 30.0 29.7 31.0 31.7 31.6 31.8
ICICI Bank 44.8 43.2 40.9 41.3 39.4 38.9 37.7 37.6 38.3 37.5 36.2 35.9
IndusInd Bank 36.1 37.7 37.0 34.2 33.7 31.8 31.8 28.9 26.8 29.5 28.0 30.7
Yes Bank 51.0 49.1 44.8 43.6 43.6 44.1 42.0 39.4 38.6 42.0 39.2 38.4
Exhibit 18: De-risking of balance sheet under process for capital conservation
Risk-weighted assets and total assets, fiscal year-ends, 2013 - 2021 (Rs bn)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2QFY21 2021
Credit RWA 553 643 907 1,151 1,625 2,232 2,680 2,037 2,004 2,311
Market RWA 88 80 70 95 132 182 193 138 129 124
Operational RWA 31 43 57 83 106 140 186 230 228 228
Total RWA 672 766 1,034 1,329 1,863 2,554 3,058 2,406 2,362 2,664
Assets 991 1,090 1,362 1,653 2,151 3,124 3,808 2,578 2,498 2,601
(Assets/RWA, %) 68 70 76 80 87 82 80 93 95 102
Loans 470 556 755 982 1,323 2,035 2,415 1,714 1,669 1,697
(Loans/credit RWA, %) 118 116 120 117 123 110 111 119 120 136
Exhibit 19: Steep decline in revenues in the last few quarters Exhibit 20: PBT growth has been very inconsistent
Revenue and NII growth, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY18 – 4QFY21 PBT growth, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY18 – 4QFY21 (%)
(%)
500
NII growth Revenue growth
200 26 29 41
-
150 (2) (9) (66)
122 (90) (91) (100)
(165)
(235)
(500)
100 (430)
140
50 33 (1,000)
23 24
31 23 28 417 16 3
-
(10) (1,500)
(49) (16) (10) (23)
(4)
(15) (9) (20)(60) (14)
(50) (29)
(38)
(52) (2,000) (1,820)
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY18
4QFY19
4QFY20
4QFY21
(100)
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
Exhibit 22: Yields declined in 4QFY21 due to interest reversals Exhibit 23: Cost of funds at higher end among peers
Calculated yield on loans versus peers, March fiscal year-ends, Calculated cost of funds versus peers, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY16
4QFY16 – 4QFY21 (%) – 4QFY21 (%)
Axis HDFCB ICICI IndusInd Yes Axis HDFCB ICICI IndusInd Yes
12.5 8.0
11.0
7.0
9.5
6.0
8.0
5.0
6.5
4.0
5.0
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17
2QFY18
4QFY18
2QFY19
4QFY19
2QFY20
4QFY20
2QFY21
4QFY21
3.0
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17
2QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
4QFY19
2QFY20
4QFY20
2QFY21
4QFY21
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 25: Yes Bank trades at 1.5X one-year forward book Exhibit 26: Yes Bank is trading at a discount to private bank
P/BV (12-month rolling forward adjusted book) for Yes Bank (X) peers
Yes Bank valuation discount to private bank peers (X)
Rolling PBR (X) (RHS)
6.0 2.5
4.8 2.0
3.6
1.5
2.4
1.0
1.2
0.5
-
0.0
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-15
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-16
Apr-18
Apr-20
Apr-15
Apr-17
Apr-19
Apr-21
Exhibit 27: Yes bank- key financial growth rates and ratios
March fiscal year-ends, 2018 – 2024E (Rs mn)
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the following
designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.