Special Edition #61 (ECONOMIC FORECASTS)

FILAB INSIGHTS 11/16/2020 - 11/20/2020

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The “insights” expressed in this document do not necessarily represent the

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“FILAB CHALLENGE” This report was elaborated under the supervision of FILAB Head and the
coordinator of the career of Management and Corporate Finance of the Faculty
of Business Sciences. Collaborated with this edition: Nicolle Cabanillas,
Mayra López, José Sanchez, Alonso Santamaria and Sebastian Vallejos.
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“FILAB Webinar” This week we invite you to our FILAB webinars at 5pm. On Wednesday the
25th, Jared Miller will analyze the times of Fintech Lending in emerging
markets and how SMEs can finance themselves with financial technology in
crisis scenarios. On Friday the 27th, Janisia Bennet will teach the use of
Bloomberg technology for the development of financial intelligence. Also, you
can watch here our webinar from last week (10/29/20) on the transition from
LIBOR to SOFR rates with the participation of Lizzette Lara from Bloomberg
LP.
 1. NEWS 2. TABLES
Table 1: Matrix of returns of the World Equity Indices
Insights of the week: “Economic Forecasts”
After restrictions on economic activity in the US and an Index Ticker Country Points Currency 1d 5d 1m 12m
increase in COVID-19 cases (+1 million last week), an S&P/BVL SPBLPGPT PE 18,810.39 PEN 1.39% 4.22% 5.60% -4.53%
annualized contraction of its economy of between 0.5% S&P 500 SPX US 3,557.54 USD -0.68% -0.77% 3.32% 14.45%
(Bloomberg) and 1% (JPMorgan) is expected. In Peru, the EURO STOXX 50 SX5E EU 3,467.60 EUR 0.45% 1.04% 7.43% -5.87%
NIKKEI NKY JP 25,527.37 JPY -0.42% 0.56% 8.55% 10.45%
political and social scene stabilized during last week with the IBEX 35 IBEX ES 7,977.90 EUR 0.60% 2.49% 15.17% -13.52%
assumption of the presidency of Francisco Sagasti. The SHANGHAI COMP SHCOMP CN 3,377.73 CNY 0.44% 2.04% 3.04% 17.07%
GDP grew 29.9% in the third quarter of this year, the results
of the last quarter will depend on the level of consumer Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)
demand in the face of lower wages and job losses. Note: d=days, m=months. Return=% Price Change. Bloomberg Functions: WEI (World Equity Indices), COMP (Comparative Returns). CL: WEI <GO>, CL:
SPX <Index> COMP <GO>

TOP News: “US: Recession Forecast "

Table 2: Most active securities of S&P 500 (USD)
Due to the increase in Covid-19 cases and the restrictions
imposed on companies in several states in the US, an Company Ticker Last Price($) Market Cap ($B) ROE P/E(x)
economic contraction of 1% (annualized) has been forecast Apple Inc AAPL UQ Equity 117.34 1,994.99 73.60% 36.04
for the first quarter of 2021. This after an expansion of General Electric Co GE UN Equity 9.76 85.50 5.12% 65.52
33.1% in the third quarter and an estimated growth of 2.8% Pfizer Inc PFE UN Equity 36.70 203.99 20.51% 15.41
in the fourth quarter of this year. Analysts at JPMorgan Ford Motor Co F UN Equity 8.74 34.77 1.90% 55.61
Comcast Corp CMCSA UQ Equity 49.17 224.97 13.79% 20.07
Chase & Co. expect fiscal support of $ 1 trillion more by the
end of the first quarter of the following year.
Table 3: Most active securities of S&P/BVL (PEN)
Local: "Significant economic expansion" Last Price
GDP increased 29.9% in the third quarter, the most Company Ticker Market Cap (S/ B) ROE P/E(x)
(S/)
significant growth reported by any major economy to date, Volcan Cia Minera SAA VOLCABC1 PE Equity 0.42 6.42 -26.59% #N/D
driven by fewer restrictive measures and large amounts of Trevali Mining Corp TV PE Equity 0.16 0.13 -19.33% #N/D
fiscal stimulus (20% of GDP). Construction activity Nexa Resources Atacocha SAA ATACOBC1 PE Equity 0.15 0.14 -3.09% #N/D
expanded 129% in the same period, driven by families taking Banco BBVA Peru SA BBVAC1 PE Equity 2.15 14.04 14.76% 11.19
advantage of savings for home improvement projects. Minsur SA MINSURI1 PE Equity 1.69 4.87 -3.02% #N/D
However, recent political turmoil could affect public Data: Bloomberg (11/20//2020)
Note: Market Cap is total current market value in thousands of millions (B)
investment in the fourth quarter and business confidence. Bloomberg Functions: MOST (Most Active Securities) y RV (Relative Value) CL: SPX <Index> MOST <GO> y CL: AAL UQ <Equity> RV <GO><GO>

International: “Debt crisis forecast "

The latest projections shown by the IMF estimate a 4.9% Table 4: Local and International Corporate Events
drop in the world economy. At the same time, most
Companies Nov-23 Nov-24 Nov-25 Nov-26 Nov-27
countries have had to increase their debt to face the Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)
pandemic, which is why it is expected that the economies Corporación Lindley SA (PE) ER Note: ER= Earning Release, D=
will have to face a debt crisis in the medium term. Dell Technologies Inc (US) ER Dividends. Bloomberg Function
Empresa siderúrgica del Perú (PE) ER EVTS (Corporate Events), CL:
EVTS <GO>; Bloomberg Excel
Indeco SA (US) ER
Function BDS.
Newell Brands Inc (US) D
Andino Investment Holding SAA (PE) ER

Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)

Note: Bloomberg Function TOP (TOP News), VRUS (Coronavirus
Market Impact), CN (Company News), Command Line (CL): TOP
<GO>, VRUS <GO>
 3. TABLES 4. FIGURES

Table 5: Matrix of prices and returns of commodities in the futures market Figure 1: Weekly Local Ranking Returns
Returns
S&P BVL Index (PE), Ticker: SPBLPGPT Profitability
Commodity Last Price 1d 5d 1m 12m -0.77%
Average
Crude (WTI) USD/1000 BBL (CL1) 42.15 0.98% 5.03% 5.77% -27.04%
Crude (Brent) USD/Barrel (CO1) 44.96 1.72% 120.32% 7.64% -29.07% Firms with Best Performance
Gasoline USD/ Gall (XB1) 117.52 1.09% 4.43% 3.19% -29.81% Diamondback Energy Inc 18.57%
Gold USD/100 ounce (GC1) 1,872.40 0.59% -0.73% -1.56% 27.93% L Brands Inc 16.39%
Occidental Petroleum Corp 14.32%
Silver USD/ounce (XAG) 24.18 0.52% -2.00% -1.75% 42.03%
Copper USD/25000 pounds (HG1) 329.10 2.78% 3.56% 5.18% 24.28% Technipfmc PLC 13.00%
Viacomcbs Inc 12.55%
Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020) Firms with Worst Performance
Note: d=days, m=months. Return=% Price Change. Bloomberg Functions: GLCO (Glob- al Commodity Pricing) y Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc -12.13%
HCP (Precio historico con var %), LC: GLCO <GO>, CL: CL1 COMB <Comdty> <GO>; Excel Bloomberg Function Boston Scientific Corp -11.27%
BDH. Cardinal Health Inc -9.70%
Centene Corp -8.82%
Table 6: Risk free rate yield curves Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -8.42%
Tasa 3M 6M 1A 5A 10A
US (USD) 0.067% 0.087% 0.101% 0.372% 0.825%
Figure 2: Weekly International Ranking Returns
PERU (PEN) 0.320% 0.385% 0.536% 2.162% 3.935%
LIBOR (EUR) -0.543% -0.519% -0.468% N/A N/A Standard & Poors 500 Index (US), Ticker: SPX Profitability
UNITED KINGDOM (GBP) -0.097% -0.128% -0.040% -0.009% 0.300%
JAPAN (JPY) -0.109% -0.103% -0.157% -0.124% 0.008% Average 4.22%

Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020) Firms with Best Performance

Note: Peru (Zero Coupon PEN), US (Treasury Actives Curve), UK (GBP UK Sovereign), JP (Sovereign Debt JPY), Trevali Mining Corp 35.83%
EUR LIBOR (ACT/360). Bloomberg Function: GC (Graph Curves) CL: GC <GO> Intercorp Financial Services 17.91%
Cia Minera Atacocha SA 17.74%
Union Andina de Cementos SAA 12.78%
Table 7: Currency Rates Matrix Cementos Pacasmayo SAA 11.71%
T/C o FX Rate Daily Weekly Monthly Firms with Worst Performance
Bolsa de Valores de Lima -0.82%
USDPEN 3.5931 3.6428 3.5973 Engie Energía Perú SA -0.70%
EURPEN 4.2626 4.3092 4.2662 Enel Distribución Perú SAA -0.20%
USDEUR 0.8435 0.8449 0.8431
Refinería La Pampilla SAA 0.00%
GBPEUR 1.1201 1.1153 1.0997
Enel Generación Perú SAA 0.00%
USDJPY 103.86 104.63 104.71
USDCAD 1.3095 1.3137 1.3125

Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020) Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)

Note: Historical currency rate based on closing date 11/20/20. Note: Prices return of members with the greatest impact within 5 days.
Bloomberg Function: FXC (Currency Rates Matrix) y GP (Line Chart), CL: FXC <GO> Bloomberg Functions: MRR (Members Ranking Return), CL: SPX <Index>
CL: USDPEN REGN <Curncy> GP <GO> MRR <GO>.
 5. FIGURES 6. FIGURES
Figure 3: Peruvian economy recovered in the third quarter of this year Figure 4: USA: A period of recession is expected for the first quarter of 2021

Peru's Quarterly GDP (YoY) USA Quarterly GDP (YoY)

10 15
-9.40 9.9
5
3.4
0 10
PERCENTAGE %

PERCENTAGE %
3.2
-5 -0.8
5
-10
-2.8
-15
0
-20
-25 -5
-30
-30.20
-35 -10
03/1/12
09/1/12
12/1/12
03/1/13
06/1/13
09/1/13
12/1/13
03/1/14
06/1/14
09/1/14
12/1/14
06/1/15
12/1/15
03/1/16
06/1/16
09/1/16
12/1/16
03/1/17
06/1/17
09/1/17
12/1/17
03/1/18
09/1/18
12/1/18
03/1/19
06/1/19
09/1/19
12/1/19
03/1/20
06/1/20
09/1/20
06/1/12

03/1/15
09/1/15

06/1/18

12/1/17

03/1/18

06/1/18

09/1/18

03/1/19

06/1/19

09/1/19

12/1/19

03/1/20

06/1/20

09/1/20

12/1/20

03/1/21

06/1/21

12/1/21
12/1/18

09/1/21
Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)
Note: YoY: Year over year. Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: PRGQTOTL <Index> GP <GO> Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)
Note: YoY: Year over year. Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: GDP CYOY <Index> GP <GO>

Stock of the Week (ETSY US Equity): ETSY Inc Figure 5: Etsy registers significant growth after the crisis (+ 216.16% YTD)

Companies in the technology sector closed the week with notable growth. At the end of Performance
the week, the companies with the highest growth in the S&P 500 Index are CF Industry Etsy stock VS S&P 500 Index
Holding (+ 4.2%), Microchip Technology Inc. (+ 2.7%), Take-Two Interactive Software 141.60
(+ 2.7%) and Etsy, which closed with a growth of + 4.1%. This online sales company 150

PERCENTAGE %
has seen its value grow largely due to the restriction measures given due to COVID-19,
in that sense it already shows an annual growth of + 234.75% and a YTD of + 216.16%, 100
which shows the great momentum that technology companies have had this year. 113.49
50
0
-50

Etsy stock price performance S&P 500 Performance

Data: Bloomberg (11/20/2020)

Note: Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: ETSY <Equity>, SPX <Index> GP <GO>