Special Edition #60 (PERUVIAN SCENARIO)

FILAB INSIGHTS 11/09/2020 - 11/13/2020

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“FILAB CHALLENGE” This report was elaborated under the supervision of FILAB Head and the
coordinator of the career of Management and Corporate Finance of the Faculty
of Business Sciences. Collaborated with this edition: Nicolle Cabanillas,
Mayra López, José Sanchez, Alonso Santamaria and Sebastian Vallejos.
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value. Also, you can watch here our webinar from last week (10/29/20) on the
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 1. NEWS 2. TABLES
Table 1: Matrix of returns of the World Equity Indices
Insights of the week: “Peruvian scenario”
The country went through a hectic week after the vacancy Index Ticker Country Points Currency 1d 5d 1m 12m
of Martin Vizcarra, Merino's assumption of the presidency S&P/BVL SPBLPGPT PE 18,048.41 PEN 1.37% 0.30% 2.16% -8.39%
and his subsequent resignation amid nationwide protests. S&P 500 SPX US 3,585.15 USD 1.36% 2.16% 2.91% 14.89%
The sol dollar exchange rate (SPOT) reached its maximum EURO STOXX 50 SX5E EU 3,432.07 EUR 0.11% 7.12% 5.75% -7.53%
NIKKEI NKY JP 25,385.87 JPY -0.53% 4.36% 8.44% 8.94%
in 18 years (3.64 USD / PEN), the yield curve of Peruvian IBEX 35 IBEX ES 7,783.70 EUR 0.75% 13.29% 13.64% -15.96%
bonds fell -0.875% and the Lima Stock Exchange fell by - SHANGHAI COMP SHCOMP CN 3,310.10 CNY -0.86% -0.06% -0.79% 14.48%
6.5% (11/10). However, Peruvian bonds are still rated A3
(Moody’s) and BBB + (S&P). This week the market reaction Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)
is expected in response to recent events. Note: d=days, m=months. Return=% Price Change. Bloomberg Functions: WEI (World Equity Indices), COMP (Comparative Returns). CL: WEI <GO>, CL:
SPX <Index> COMP <GO>

TOP News: “Crisis in Peru "

Table 2: Most active securities of S&P 500 (USD)
Manuel Merino resigned from the Presidency of Peru this
Sunday, after six days of assuming office. This, after Company Ticker Last Price($) Market Cap ($B) ROE P/E(x)
protests against his government that left two dead and General Electric Co GE UN Equity 9.25 81.03 5.12% 62.10
several wounded; as a consequence, 14 ministers resigned Apple Inc AAPL UQ Equity 119.26 2,027.63 73.60% 36.63
from their position. The Peruvian economy (Gross Domestic Ford Motor Co F UN Equity 8.54 33.98 1.90% 54.34
Product - GDP) will contract 14% this year, according to the Cisco Systems Inc CSCO UQ Equity 41.40 174.75 31.05% 15.63
Carnival Corp CCL UN Equity 16.01 13.35 -21.90% #N/A
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the worst recession in
more than a century. There is a lot of expectation about who
will hold the presidential office. Table 3: Most active securities of S&P/BVL (PEN)
Last Price
Local: " Economic and political uncertainty " Company Ticker Market Cap (S/ B) ROE P/E(x)
(S/)
The current crisis could further contract the Peruvian Volcan Cia Minera SAA VOLCABC1 PE Equity 0.38 6.31 -26.59% #N/A
economy after a fall in GDP of -30.2% in the second quarter Refinería La Pampilla SAA RELAPAC1 PE Equity 0.07 0.55 -46.04% #N/A
due to the Covid-19 pandemic. After the vacancy of Martín Ferreycorp SAA FERREYC1 PE Equity 1.68 1.64 2.27% 33.73
Vizcarra, the yield premium of dollar bonds over US Banco BBVA Peru SA BBVAC1 PE Equity 2.15 14.04 14.76% 11.19
Treasuries increased by 4 bips (basis points = 1% / 100), the Aenza SAA AENZAC1 PE Equity 1.56 1.36 -32.05% #N/A
Lima Stock Exchange (SPBLPGPT) fell -6.5% and the USD Data: Bloomberg (11/13//2020)
Note: Market Cap is total current market value in thousands of millions (B)
/ PEN exchange rate rose to 3.64 at the close of the week.
Bloomberg Functions: MOST (Most Active Securities) y RV (Relative Value) CL: SPX <Index> MOST <GO> y CL: AAL UQ <Equity> RV <GO><GO>

International: “Small caps recovery"

Small caps (companies with a market capitalization Table 4: Local and International Corporate Events
between $ 300 million and $ 2 billion) had a sustained
Companies Nov-9 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13
weekly growth and outperformed technology. The S&P Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)
Small Cap 600 and Russell 2000 indices grew 2.46% and Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SA (PE) ER Note: ER= Earning Release, D=
2.29% respectively. Enel Generación Piura SA (PE) D Dividends. Bloomberg Function
Walmart Inc (US) ER EVTS (Corporate Events), CL:
EVTS <GO>; Bloomberg Excel
La Positiva Vida Seguros y Rea (PE) ER
Function BDS.
3M Co (US) D
Petróleos del Perú SA (PE) ER
Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)
Note: Bloomberg Function TOP (TOP News), VRUS (Coronavirus
Market Impact), CN (Company News), Command Line (CL): TOP
<GO>, VRUS <GO>
 3. TABLES 4. FIGURES

Table 5: Matrix of prices and returns of commodities in the futures market Figure 1: Weekly Local Ranking Returns
Returns
S&P BVL Index (PE), Ticker: SPBLPGPT Profitability
Commodity Last Price 1d 5d 1m 12m 0.30%
Average
Crude (WTI) USD/1000 BBL (CL1) 40.13 -2.41% 8.05% -1.83% -30.47%
Crude (Brent) USD/Barrel (CO1) 42.78 -1.72% 120.32% -0.35% -32.42% Firms with Best Performance
Gasoline USD/ Gall (XB1) 112.54 -2.74% 3.78% -3.71% -31.17% Trevali Mining Corp 14.29%
Gold USD/100 ounce (GC1) 1,886.20 0.69% -3.36% -0.77% 28.44% Nexa Resources Peru SAA 7.44%
Intercorp Financial Services 6.62%
Silver USD/ounce (XAG) 24.67 1.60% -3.68% 2.12% 45.44%
Copper USD/25000 pounds (HG1) 317.80 1.05% 0.76% 3.60% 20.47% Empresa Siderúrgica Perú SAA 5.48%
Credicorp LTD 4.81%
Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020) Firms with Worst Performance
Note: d=days, m=months. Return=% Price Change. Bloomberg Functions: GLCO (Glob- al Commodity Pricing) y Cia de Minas Buenaventura -11.74%
HCP (Precio historico con var %), LC: GLCO <GO>, CL: CL1 COMB <Comdty> <GO>; Excel Bloomberg Function Unión Cerv Perú Back&Johns -5.00%
BDH. Minsur SA Invesiones -2.94%
Southern Copper Corp -2.07%
Table 6: Risk free rate yield curves Enel Distribución Perú SAA -1.36%
Tasa 3M 6M 1A 5A 10A
US (USD) 0.089% 0.096% 0.119% 0.407% 0.898%
Figure 2: Weekly International Ranking Returns
PERU (PEN) 0.329% 0.422% 0.623% 2.421% 4.185%
LIBOR (EUR) -0.539% -0.512% -0.456% N/A N/A Standard & Poors 500 Index (US), Ticker: SPX Profitability
UNITED KINGDOM (GBP) -0.026% -0.078% -0.032% 0.012% 0.337%
JAPAN (JPY) -0.100% -0.102% -0.148% -0.113% 0.020% Average 2.16%

Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020) Firms with Best Performance

Note: Peru (Zero Coupon PEN), US (Treasury Actives Curve), UK (GBP UK Sovereign), JP (Sovereign Debt JPY), Kimco Realty Corp 38.60%
EUR LIBOR (ACT/360). Bloomberg Function: GC (Graph Curves) CL: GC <GO> Diamondback Energy Inc 35.81%
Regency Centers Corp 34.30%
Valero Energy Corp 33.40%
Table 7: Currency Rates Matrix Federal Realty Invs Trust 28.35%
T/C o FX Rate Daily Weekly Monthly Firms with Worst Performance
Biogen Inc -24.42%
USDPEN 3.6428 3.5928 3.5865 Etsy Inc -14.60%
EURPEN 4.3092 4.2681 4.2042 Air Products & Chemicals Inc -13.97%
USDEUR 0.8449 0.8422 0.8534
Pool Corp -11.04%
GBPEUR 1.1153 1.1069 1.1023
Marketaxess Holdings Inc -9.71%
USDJPY 104.63 103.35 105.4
USDCAD 1.3137 1.3050 1.3189

Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020) Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)

Note: Historical currency rate based on closing date 11/13/20. Note: Prices return of members with the greatest impact within 5 days.
Bloomberg Function: FXC (Currency Rates Matrix) y GP (Line Chart), CL: FXC <GO> Bloomberg Functions: MRR (Members Ranking Return), CL: SPX <Index>
CL: USDPEN REGN <Curncy> GP <GO> MRR <GO>.
 5. FIGURES 6. FIGURES
Figure 3: Peruvian sol reaches minimum level in 18 years Figure 4: Lima stock exchange falls -6.5% after presidential vacancy

Exchange rate USDPEN Lima stock exchange general index performance (SPBLPGPT)
Sol spot price
5
3.60 0
3.40
-5

PERCENTAGE
USDPEN

3.20
-10
3.00 -6.5
-15
2.80 3.64
-20
2.60
-25
2.40
2003

2017
2002

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

2018
2019
2020
-30
03/13/20 05/13/20 07/13/20 09/13/20 11/13/20

Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)

Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)
Note: Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: PEN BGN <Curncy> GP <GO> Note: Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: SPBLPGPT <Index> GP <GO>

Figure 5: Credicorp stock drops 20% after presidential vacancy

Stock of the Week (BAP US Equity): Credicorp LTD
The presidential vacancy given by the Peruvian congress on Monday night produced an Credicorp stock price performance
unfavorable session for the Peruvian stock market the next day. The Lima Stock
Exchange fell to - 6.50%, while the financial sector was one of the most affected with a 140
137.5
fall of -14.1%. Meanwhile, on Tuesday Credicorp reached a minimum value of $ 111.36,
which reported a fall of up to 20%. This company represents 52% of the benchmark 135
MSCI Peru Index. However, on Friday Credicorp closed at $ 125.15, which means a
daily growth of 4.40%. 130

US $ 125

120

115
112.92
110
07/01/2020 08/01/2020 09/01/2020 10/01/2020 11/01/2020

Data: Bloomberg (11/13/2020)

Note: Bloomberg Function GP (Price graph). CL: BAP US <Equity> GP <GO>