The afghan stalemate

THE high-stakes peace talks ended with just a promise of the rival
sides meeting again. The two-day weekend parleys in Doha
between the Afghan Taliban and the government in Kabul failed to
break the stalemate as fighting in Afghanistan raged on. There has
not even been an agreement on a ceasefire during Eidul Azha.

The Taliban’s recent military victories seemed to have led to a headiness in

their ranks, while the fractious Afghan ruling coalition with its fast-losing
authority didn’t have much to offer. The two sides have agreed to expedite the
talks but there is still no clear framework for future negotiations.

It’s apparent that the Taliban seek to restore the old order before engaging in
any power-sharing talks with various Afghan factions on their own terms. The
Taliban’s push for victory has brought Afghanistan closer to a full-blown civil
war that can suck regional countries into the conflict. Yesterday’s rocket
attacks in Kabul close to the presidential palace during Eid prayers hours after
the Doha talks are ominous.

The recent talks marked the most senior-level interaction yet between the two
sides. For months, Taliban and Afghan government representatives have been
meeting intermittently in the Qatari capital without making any headway in
talks. It was hoped that with the presence of the top leadership and facilitation
from the US and some other countries the meeting could produce some kind
of a breakthrough. Representatives from the European Union, the US and UN
were also present at the talks.

The Taliban cannot think of ruling Afghanistan without international

legitimacy.

The Taliban’s supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada’s statement that his

group “strenuously favours a political settlement” despite victories on the
ground gave some hope of negotiations moving forward. But at the end of the
recent discussion, there was no indication of a ceasefire as both sides merely
agreed they would “work to prevent civilian casualties”.

A joint statement said that the two would work to provide humanitarian
assistance across Afghanistan. But with no sign of hostilities ceasing, the work
of the aid agencies has been made all the more difficult. Notwithstanding the
pledge to meet again and speed up talks, the situation does not look
encouraging.
Read: 'We lost': Some US veterans say blood spilled in Afghanistan was
wasted

A major impediment in the way of a breakthrough are the differences between

the two sides vis-à-vis priorities. While the Afghan side insists on a ceasefire
before there can be any real dialogue, the Taliban want a firm commitment
regarding the establishment of their strict version of a Sharia system.

There is also a huge gap between their respective views on an inclusive

government comprising all segments of Afghan society and ethnic groups. The
Taliban have never come out clearly about their interpretation of an inclusive
system and whether they believe in elected democracy.

Similarly, their views on human rights, particularly on women’s right to

education and to work has remained extremely vague. Their demand for the
restoration of an ‘Islamic emirate’ contradicts their claim that they believe in a
pluralistic political system.

Growing fractiousness within the Afghan government and other anti-Taliban

groups has also been a reason for their not coming out with a coherent policy
in peace talks. The situation has exacerbated with the dwindling authority of
President Ashraf Ghani in the face of the Taliban’s military offensive.

Many Afghan leaders blame Ghani’s obstinacy and temperament for the
growing divide. Unsurprisingly, there have been an increasing number of
voices for the president to step down and give way to a more acceptable
interim administration. But there seems to be no uncontroversial leader who
could unite the disparate Afghan factions.

The rise of regional militias led by warlords has further diminished the
government’s writ. Although they pledge their allegiance to the government in
Kabul, these private armies are meant to protect the fiefdoms of local
strongmen. That has raised the fear of fragmentation of the country, making
the peace process more difficult. More worrisome are reports of some of these
warlords having connections with certain regional countries.

In recent weeks, ahead of the Doha talks, the Taliban blitz has been more
spectacular than expected. Heavy casualties suffered by Afghan government
forces underscore the fierceness of the insurgents’ assault. The group now
controls border crossings and main trade routes with all neighbouring
countries, denying the Afghan government a major source of income from
custom duties and transit fees. Fierce fighting is going on in large swaths of
Afghanistan.

Such strategic military gains have certainly given the Taliban an edge over the
Afghan government. But their objective of a military takeover of the country is
neither achievable nor will it be acceptable to the international community.
Despite battlefield gains, the insurgents have not been able to take control of
any major Afghan town. It may be either part of their strategy or a lack of
capacity or both.

But more importantly, it’s also the consensus amongst the US and regional
countries against the restoration of an Islamic emirate in any form that would
deter the Taliban from going for a military solution. The Taliban cannot think
of ruling Afghanistan without international legitimacy.

Meanwhile, the withdrawal of foreign troops doesn’t mean that the US is

completely out of the Afghan scene. President Joe Biden’s administration has
pledged to continue supporting the Afghan government forces. The US base in
Qatar is now being used for training these forces. That makes it imperative for
the Taliban to seek a negotiated political settlement. But that also requires a
more rational approach on the part of the Afghan government.

More important, however, will be the role of regional countries to push both
warring sides towards result-oriented negotiations. While the latest Doha
negotiations may have failed to break the deadlock, the agreement between
the two sides to return to the table soon for more constructive discussions
gives some hope of a breakthrough.

No side can win peace on the battlefield. Peace talks are never easy between
rivals that have been involved in a prolonged war. But it’s the only way out of
the bloody conflict.