--------------------------

________________________________
From: Geopolitical Futures <comments@geopoliticalfutures.com>
Sent: Friday, 30 July 2021 18:12
To: GABRIEL SUN
Subject: COVID and Cars

COVID and Cars

July 30, 2021

View On Website
Open as PDF

 
COVID and Cars
Thoughts in and around geopolitics.
By: George Friedman

We have moved into the true second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous phases
were merely passing bubbles. This one appears real. Until now, there was a
perception in many places that the pandemic was over. The emergence of a new strain
of the virus opens a new chapter. We don’t know how many more variants will rear
their ugly heads or what new powers they might have. But this one is returning us
to the practices of the last chapter. Once again, we fear the breath of strangers,
we inhale our exhalation with masks, and we live less of a life than we expected to
live. Karl Marx had a saying that history repeats itself twice, the first time as
tragedy and the second time as farce.

(click to enlarge)

Because this is a disease, we are governed by the principles of the medical

profession. Its core principle is that no measure should be spared to prevent
deaths and grievous injury. That is a noble purpose, but the question is whether
this should be the sole principle by which this nation is governed or rather one
important consideration. This is not intended as a callous question. My life and
the lives of those I love are on the table. But at the same time, we are entering
the second round, and now we must consider whether this is to be a permanent
feature of our lives and whether the virus will learn to defeat our vaccines. The
future is unknown, but we need to consider the extent to which the governing
principle of the medical profession is sustainable.

Consider this. Every year in the United States, about 40,000 people die in car
accidents. Some 1.35 million die in car accidents globally. In fact, they are the
eighth-largest cause of death in the world. In the United States, about 3 million
people are injured in automobile-related accidents.

These numbers exist despite all the efforts made to make cars safer. The reason
cars aren’t banned is because the economic and social consequences of doing so
would be devastating. The supply of food and other essentials requires trucking.
Maintaining friends and seeing family require cars. In the United States, our
ability to use land efficiently depends on cars to sustain a dispersed population.
Yet this dependency carries a risk. In the back of your mind, you are aware as the
ignition is turned on that you may die. You dismiss this possibility, of course,
and proceed with your life.

What has happened is that a known risk of death and injury has been measured
against the necessities of life, and a calculated risk has shown that tolerating
the chance of death and enjoying the benefits of the car is preferable to seeking
to eliminate car deaths by eliminating the car. The principle that death must be
fought by all means is not practiced in the case of car deaths because a more
subtle calculation takes place.

It’s a reminder that in most actions of human life there is a possibility of death
or injury, but a life without those things would be impoverished. You can live
without many things for a short and predictable period. Living without them
indefinitely creates pressures on individuals and society. The trade-off between
death and life is the human condition.

The response to the pandemic has had a massive effect on the global economy, one
that we are only now beginning to fully understand. The economic problem is not
that billionaires might lose money – they have, on the whole, gained money – but
that it has disproportionately hurt poorer people, the lower-middle class and
poorer countries far worse. This isn’t a tradeoff between wealth and safety but
rather the real danger of death facing the reality of economic catastrophe with
shattered dreams. Those who resist the closings and the wearing of masks are
painted as reckless. Perhaps, but certainly not much more reckless than someone who
gets in a car and does not wear a seatbelt or take other safety measures.

Medicine has as its singular goal saving lives. The measures it recommends are
meant to do that, and to a great extent, they have been followed by a political
system justifiably panicking. But there is a cost that is imposed by every measure,
and it is unreasonable to expect the medical profession to calculate those costs.
That responsibility belongs to others. But the principle of the medical profession
to save lives at all costs is not a common social principle. Measuring the risk of
death against all the other risks is the key. The economy is not a luxury. It must
go on at a level that can support society. We cannot treat the worry about the
economy as a frivolous concern. Social life is not a luxury either. We are social
animals. The risks and rewards must be thoughtfully calculated by both states and
individuals. The mixture of risk and reward can to some extent be calculated.

Now that the delta variant is here, we must consider the possibility that others
are on the way. There is a vaccine, and it works now. Let those who choose not to
take it take their risks. They have made their choice, and perhaps it is the right
one. But my life should not be constrained to protect them; nor should the economy
and society. And it is altogether possible that among the new versions of COVID-19,
one will render my vaccine useless. Shall I shut down my life waiting for a new
vaccine that may never come?

I don’t know, but I must assume we have entered a new period in which COVID-19
outfoxes humanity. We will then have no choice but to accept the risks, knowing
that some of us will die, or accept the catastrophic implosion of the economy and
society. It’s not just a matter of masks as we have seen, but we have lived through
the logic of the previous cycle. The protections ultimately put in place led to
massive bankruptcies, job losses and the collapse of social interaction. Perhaps
the measures causing these outcomes will not be used this time, but having gone
down this path before, that is not assured. The idea that we can go on indefinitely
with each new chapter forcing us to shelter in place is a superficial view of what
will happen. As with automobiles, where we risk death on every ride and where many
find it, the risk of COVID-19 will be integrated into our thinking, and we will
make choices. The current solution must work, or a different math will be used.

A referral is the best compliment.

Feel free to forward this email to friends and colleagues.

Share this article on Facebook

 
 
We value your thoughts and opinions.
Reply here or simply reply to this email.
 
 
Follow Us
 
________________________________
 
View More Geopolitical Futures
 
 
 
You have received this email because you have subscribed to Geopolitical Futures as
scsun.76@gmail.com.

To change when you receive emails please update profile

Login to access this in your browser

© 2021 Geopolitical Futures, All rights reserved