Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Anthropocene
Anthropocentrism
Corporate personhood
Ecocentrism/biocentrism
Ecological footprint
Legal personhood
Ontology
Preemption
Standing
That structurally tilts environmental law toward human interests which guarantees
destruction of water resources and the broader environment---only conferring rights
directly to river ecosystems can systemically prioritize protection over unsustainable
growth
Linda Sheehan 19, Advisor, Global Alliance for the Rights of Nature; Linda Sheehan Consulting, 2019,
“IMPLEMENTING NATURE’S RIGHTS THROUGH REGULATORY STANDARDS,” Vermont Journal of
Environmental Law, http://files.harmonywithnatureun.org/uploads/upload926.pdf
The stated purpose of many current environmental laws and their implementing regulations is to achieve “healthy”
systems.17 For example, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) states that the primary objective of marine mammal management
“should be to maintain the health and stability of the marine ecosystem.” 18 Similarly, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
“recognizes that each person should enjoy a healthful environment” 19 and “encourage[s] productive and enjoyable harmony” with the
environment. 20 It further encourages each person to exercise their “responsibility to contribute to the preservation and enhancement of the
environment.”21 Similar language is found at the state level .22 For example, the California Coastal Act states that “[u]ses of the
marine environment shall…maintain healthy populations of all species of marine organisms.”23
The desired “healthy” environment, however, has failed to materialize because, as written, the laws cannot
structurally achieve these goals . 24 Environmental laws have addressed some acute issues, such as large sewage and
industrial pollution releases, but have failed to prevent longterm, devastating harm, such as climate change and species
extinctions.25 Lack of funding, political backtracking, understaffing, weak enforcement, and other challenges
certainly have created obstacles for success.26 A lack of understanding of systems science when the laws were
adopted exacerbates such struggles. 27 Our single-stressor laws simply did not envision systemic shifts such as pollution-caused,
runaway climate change.
However, fully implementing existing environmental laws and associated regulations would still fail to ensure a thriving
planet because the laws themselves are fundamentally flawed. 28 Rather than recognize that nature and humans are
interconnected, these laws assume that we can isolate and control elements of the natural world as we choose. Most
federal U.S. environmental laws were developed over 45 years ago as reactions to human-caused tragedies such as long-
term DDT contamination, dead Great Lakes, and regular river fires.29 The shared intent of these laws was to set goals that would
sustainably protect ecosystems and species and hold users of the environment to those goals. 30 Despite this benevolent intent, however, the
structure of these laws reflects a societal perspective that the natural world is in essence a resource to be manipulated
for profit and other human desires. The ideology behind these laws, in other words, is not far detached from the
ideology that generated the environmental harm the laws were designed to prevent.
Consistent with a frame of nature as economic resource , our environmental laws legalize and externalize the
impacts of pollution, rather than more generally apply bans. 31 The laws further place the burden of proof on those impacted
to show pollution is harmful, rather than on pollution dischargers to show it is not.32 They fail to include provisions to pay
back our collective debt to nature through affirmative, sweeping restoration activities or broad establishment of habitat reserves. 33 An
economic system that treats nature as capital pushes back on such approaches, which are inconsistent with natural
systems’ perceived role as primarily an economic good.
The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) is a prime example. Often viewed as the closest approximation to a rights of nature statute, the ESA
operates from a basic premise that species as a whole have some right to exist, independent of their direct benefit to people.34 However, the “God
Squad” loophole35 and species-targeted attacks on the Act36 demonstrate the law’s limits in protecting the most fundamental of nature’s rights
when faced with conflicting human economic desires.37 Indeed, even the basic premise of the Act—to intervene only when species are poised to
vanish— demonstrates the law’s adherence to the current, primarily economic understanding of nature. 38 A law that recognized species’ own,
inherent rights to exist, thrive, and evolve might be called the “Healthy Species Act,” rather than the “Endangered Species Act.”39
Other examples include:
The U.S. National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which allows public environmental review of projects subject to government approval, but
fails to require that negative environmental impacts be avoided or mitigated to insignificance. 40 It further fails to effectively consider cumulative
impacts, opening the door to environmental “death by a thousand cuts.”41
The U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which places a “[m]oratorium on the taking and importation of marine mammals and marine
mammal products,” but fails to maintain the Act’s intent by issuing permits when economic interests arise. 42 For example, marine mammal
“take” permits were issued to aging California coastal power plants, which kill and injure marine mammals on seawater intake pipes.43
Unpermitted takings further occur regularly through destruction of habitats critical to threatened and endangered marine mammals; for example,
in California, the disappearance of once-abundant Chinook salmon and steelhead resulting from drained rivers endangers the existence of their
marine predators, including the mighty Southern Resident killer whale.44
The U.S. Clean Water Act (CWA) calls in Section 101 for the “elimination by 1985” of the “discharge of pollutants,” but has clearly not achieved
that objective well over two decades later.45 The Act’s regulations in fact allow continued pollutant discharges through permits, notably limiting
the discharges only if they have a “reasonable potential” to violate individual standards.46 In other words, the “no pollution” in effect has been
interpreted as “no pollution that violates negotiated water quality standards” – a far weaker mandate that often not met.47
Our system of law is nested within a larger context of societal attitudes and assumptions that impact both the law’s
development and implementation.48 There is a critical ideological bias with regard to natural systems , which
“treat[s] the human will and its wants as the center around which” implementation of environmental laws must
revolve.49 Faced with this bias, the environment will lose —and, since we are connected, so will we .
Because our societal and economic framework treats the natural world as a resource for humans first and foremost ,
our environmental laws and the regulations implementing them fall short of achieving the “healthy” result they state they seek. 50 In practice,
they pursue at best an environmental status of “not too degraded,” and at worst, not irreversibly so .51
What, then, would science-based environmental laws and regulations that implement the inherent rights of nature
look like? How would we define an end result that respects nature’s rights? And how do we engage scientists in defining “healthy ecosystems
and species,” towards protecting nature’s own right to flourish?
Science has already guided the development of regulatory standards under current environmental laws . 52 These
standards helped clean up serious pollution and rescue near-extinct species. 53 Lessons learned from the development of these standards can
guide the development of a new system of regulatory standards that recognizes nature’s inherent rights to exist,
thrive, and evolve.
III. CLEAN WATER ACT REGULATIONS VS. REGULATIONS THAT PROTECT WATERWAYS’ INHERENT RIGHTS
To understand more deeply the concept of nature’s rights-based regulations, we will deconstruct key assumptions in CWA regulatory standards
and illustrate how those assumptions perpetuate harm. We will then demonstrate how to build standards that advance nature’s inherent rights.
The CWA establishes a national objective to “restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters.” 54
Regulations, including water quality standards, set goals for our relationship with a water body consistent with the overarching statutory
framework. 55 They further drive management action, including setting boundaries for enforcement.56
The CWA’s water quality standards contain three basic elements: the designated uses of each water body or its portion, water quality criteria to
protect designated uses, and anti-degradation policies and implementation procedures, which maintain and protect existing uses and higher
quality waters. 57 Examining the assumptions behind each of these elements, and their integration into overall water quality standards, uncovers
opportunities to better protect waterways through a rights-based approach.
A. Laundry List of “Designated Uses” vs. Prioritization of Water System Integrity
The first element of CWA water quality standards is the “designated uses” of the protected waterways. 58 A waterbody’s “designated uses”
include a laundry list of extractive and discharge activities, including industrial, municipal, and agricultural uses. 59 The list also includes
protection of the waterway for fish and other species. 60 The list itself generally fails to prioritize certain uses over others, though some states do
prioritize designated uses by statute. 61 Importantly, these lists legalize continued contamination and extraction of the waters of the United States
and exempt key sources of pollution,62 despite mounting harm from exempt sources63 and the CWA’s lofty goals.64 By failing to
eliminate the discharge of pollutants 25 years past the original deadline, the CWA prioritizes existing human
waterway uses over the well-being of waterways and nature’s needs.65 Human pressure will increasingly
marginalize waterways’ needs .
By contrast, a
nature’s rights-based approach to regulation would recognize that we must protect the well-being of
waterways, both from a moral and a utilitarian perspective . The “moral test of government, and the measure of its strength, is how
it treats its most vulnerable members—particularly with respect to meeting their most basic needs.” 66 From a utilitarian perspective as well,
sound waterways are critical not only to human health, but to life itself .67
Rather than formulating a laundry list of individual designated uses that focus on human extraction, a rights-based
regulatory approach would prioritize protection of natural water systems systemically and for basic needs first ,
through strategies such as significantly enhanced pollution controls, mandatory groundwater use regulations, flow
assurances, and restoration projects. Prioritization of a rights-based approach for waterways’ basic needs extends as
well to protection of the human right to water for basic needs , such as drinking, personal sanitation, and cooking –
again, above the use of water simply for profit. 68 Only by ensuring the integrity of water systems for fundamental environmental and
human needs can we ensure that human use beyond such needs is healthy.
B. Criteria to Support “Designated Uses” vs. Criteria to Protect Rights
The second element the CWA water quality standards is science-based water quality criteria to support the specific designated uses of each water
body. 69 Criteria can be defined as either numeric limits or narrative statements.70 The U.S. EPA publishes recommended science-based criteria
for particular uses, but states and tribes can adopt more stringent criteria.71 These criteria are intended to regulate waterway uses, such as the
amount and type of contamination that can be released, thereby ostensibly protecting the “chemical, physical, and biological integrity” of the
water body.72
The CWA’s outdated, reductionist system of isolating scientific analysis by species and media, rather than engaging in
modern, systems-based science, inhibits the effectiveness of its standards .73 More broadly, water law and science
should consider all sources of pollution in all bodies of water, including groundwater, as well as other elements of
waterway integrity, such as flow and native species and habitats. As applied today, CWA science assesses natural systems as an
aggregation of elements, rather than a system of inter-relationships. 74 Modern science articulates these interconnected systems,
and the regulatory standards must change to reflect this in order to advance the rights of natural systems to well-being.75
C. “Antidegradation” v. Restoration
The third leg of the CWA standards stool, the “antidegradation policy,” protects existing uses of waterways and exceptionally
healthy waterways.76 In practice, however, the policy is implemented sporadically and inadequately .77 This practice reinforces
the concept that prioritizes human economic use over waterway integrity.78
A rights-based approach would set a higher bar not only for minimally protecting, but also for continuously improving,
waterway health and wellbeing . Existing environmental laws, including the CWA, generally ignore a broad duty to
continually improve existing waterway health. 79 Future, rights-based environmental laws and regulations, however,
could effectively recognize this duty. For example, new laws and regulations could require restoration of natural
systems that go beyond making the ecosystem whole, remediating increasingly more of the long-term,
anthropogenic damage done. Standards assessing and measuring ecosystem health would increase accountability in such efforts to repair
anthropogenic damage to the natural world.80
IV. DEVELOPING REGULATORY STANDARDS CONSISTENT WITH THE RIGHTS OF NATURE
As various Symposium speakers emphasized, individuals cannot assert fundamental human rights in isolation.81 “The natural world on the planet
Earth gets its rights from the same source that humans get their rights, from the universe that brought them into being.” 82 The rights of
nature framework is essential to understanding and implementing individuals’ fundamental duties to one another and
the natural environment. Similarly, elements of the natural world can exercise their rights only if they are healthy .
A growing number of statutes, constitutional provisions, and court decisions worldwide recognize the inherent rights of ecosystems and species to
exist, thrive, and evolve.83 Within this expanding rights of nature framework, how could U.S. laws and regulations accurately
capture standards of “healthy” ecosystems and species populations?84 One approach is to describe “healthy” systems as
essentially pristine, or unaffected by humans. This approach could be useful for comparison purposes and arguably could act as a policy goal.
However, this approach is not broadly applicable as a management tool. Moreover, the definition of the term “pristine” today is elusive85 and
prevents options for respectful human-nature interactions.
Examining the human right to health is another approach for defining “healthy” ecosystems. The World Health Organization emphasizes that
“health” is not simply the “absence of disease or infirmity.” 86 Unfortunately, “absence of disease or infirmity” is how “healthy”
ecosystems are often defined. 87 For example, the CWA’s backstop provision to protect waterways triggers when waterway
pollution violates standards or is just about to violate standards . 88 Waterways above the threshold standards are
deemed “clean.”89 Most U.S. environmental laws and regulations, such as the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act 90 and the Outstanding National
Resource Waters protections 91 presume that flourishing ecosystems occur only in special circumstances. The overwhelming default in
U.S. environmental laws allows for degradation up to a certain point . This approach injures both environmental and
human health.92
Since the enactment of U.S. environmental laws in the early 1970s, major advances in disciplines, such as systems science, modeling,
and machine learning, have allowed scientists to approach definitions of natural system health , 93 beyond the mere
“absence of disease or infirmity.”94 For example, some marine scientists have proposed that a “healthy ecosystem” is one that
evolves and perpetuates itself within the context of its expected natural lifespan in the face of external stress .95
Scientists thus can look for variations in the expected natural rate of change , such as acceleration or deceleration of
extinction rates, as indicators of health. 96 This “healthy ecosystem” definition recognizes not only that every natural
system will continually flourish, but that healthy natural systems will change .97
New research has deconstructed “natural systems” into measurable elements. 98 Each of these elements, both
individually and combined, are important indicators of ecosystem health . 99 For example, new studies propose that a healthy
ecosystem is one that maintains its structure (organization )100 and function (vigor) 101 over time, in the face of
external stress (resilience). 102 Such scientific advancements are critical for U.S. environmental regulatory standards to
transition and reflect nature’s right to health.
Finally, a successful regulatory system includes not only substance but also procedure. That is, waterways themselves should have a
voice in policy deliberations . For example, a nation or state could appoint independent expert “guardians” to speak for
the natural systems and represent their interests during the regulatory process and public comment . 103 This would
improve regulations to meet natural systems’ needs , despite prevailing economic biases and forces.104
CONCLUSION
Ethical considerations always underlie law and policy decisions. 105 Ignoring the role of ethics and values does not necessarily make
policymaking objective, scientifically or otherwise. 106 On the contrary, decision-making which ignores ethical considerations
simply reflects dominant ethics and values, whether held consciously or unconsciously.107
Careful examination of values and goals creates clear policy messages that foster the science needed to achieve
desired results, such as healthy ecosystems and species populations. Today, the dominant–often unexamined–societal
goal is infinite economic growth , fueled in large part by consuming nature as an economic “resource.”108 Given that
the earth is finite, this economic goal will continue to degrade natural systems , which is simply “ not sustainable .”
109 However, current environmental laws implicitly accept this goal, 110 and so at best can only slow degradation,
rather than achieve healthy ecosystems .111
Implementing the ethics and values of “nature as a rights-holder,” rather than “nature as property,” will yield new
results. For example, a water allocation system that recognizes both inherent human and nature rights will first allocate
water to sustain the fundamental needs of ecological and human populations, and only then serve privatization and
profit with the remainder .
Realizing “nature as a rights-holder” in law and policy requires a new narrative , one that seeks for us a goal of becoming
a “mutually-enhancing human presence” that gives back more than we take. 112 Faced with decisions, we can ask whether an
“action enhances the integrity, health, and functioning of the whole Earth Community.”113 When we critically examine our choices in
this way and continually act to improve, we and the earth benefit.
The anthropocentric ‘property’ view of nature is an inherent logic that must be challenged
directly---the plan allows a managed way out of the infinite growth mindset
Mark Hawkins 21, MSc in Environment, Politics and Development from the University of London, January
2021, “Imagining a Post-Development Future: What can the Degrowth and Rights of Nature Debates Offer Each
Other,” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348785651_Imagining_a_Post-
Development_Future_What_can_the_Degrowth_and_Rights_of_Nature_Debates_Offer_Each_Other
Sustainable Development as a guiding ideology has proven to be unsustainable . The recently published Global
Biodiversity Outlook 5 analysing the progress made on the 2010 targets agreed upon in Aichi, Japan, rather optimistically details key
successes thus far in reaching targets for the prevention of biodiversity loss. However, the authors cannot help but note that of 60 specific
elements set out only 7 have been achieved, with 38 showing some progress (largely in terms of establishing systems for data
gathering and other such preliminary activities) and 13 show no progress, or show a drift away from targets (SCBD 2020). More soberly the
2020 Living Planet Report (LPR) notes a 68 per cent decline in monitored global vertebrate populations since 1970, with
a high of 94 per cent in South America and the Caribbean and a low of 24 per cent in Europe and Central Asia (WWF 2020). The Mauna Loa
Observatory notes parts per million of CO2 for September 2020 are at 412 up from 408 last year, and from the early 300s in the
1950s (co2.earth [online]), while artic sea ice is melting at far higher rates than predicted (Jansen 2020). This is, of course, only the tip of the
iceberg. It is becoming increasingly apparent that paying lip service to environmental topics while continuing with the same
economic growth centred, globalised socio-environmental system is not enough .
In this context this essay has two interrelated aims, to be achieved by using a comparative approach. A number of more radical strategies to
deal more robustly with the rapidly accelerating crisis have been put forward and this essay seeks to analyse two of
them together in an effort to move towards creating an “ ontological plurality ” of separate yet supporting ways of
addressing the contradictions that are moving us so quickly towards a precipice (Nightingale et al. 2020 p.345). Secondly, I
seek to reiterate the importance of moving beyond current paradigms towards a “ great transformation ” (Beling et al. 2018
p.304).
To do this I first set out the key concepts to be addressed. Firstly, by looking at the key concepts I will be using, then by looking at
degrowth and the rights of nature (RoN) movements, their origins and how they are linked to ideas of hegemony and the frontiers of
economic extraction. I then go on to look at some
key weaknesses of the two movements. For degrowth this is largely
theoretical as it has not been adopted to any meaningful degree anywhere, despite gaining traction among environmental
groups, academics and increasingly appearing in news sources. For the RoN, I will focus on some key examples of its adoption, with a particular
focus on Bolivia and Ecuador where these rights have been adopted as integral parts of the new constitutions of those countries.
I find that degrowth is particularly weak when it comes to analysing the frontiers of extraction, tending to focus on
productive activities and modes of organization in industrial core countries , especially Europe. This is despite the fact that, in
terms of social justice , the worst effects of growth can be seen at these frontiers, where accumulation by
dispossession is rampant and dispossessed groups, especially Indigenous peoples, bear the brunt of resource
extractions negative externalities, while benefits are accrued elsewhere. This resource extraction represents the bedrock of
global economic growth . Degrowths lack of adoption is a further weakness of the movement and speaks to the
difficulty of challenging the hegemonic character of growth, with its ubiquitous nature in modern imaginings of progress and
development, and its fundamental usefulness to a wide array of actors. In this context the RoN's connection to Indigenous
worldviews and its wide and relatively rapid spread means it merits a place in the degrowth playbook .
For the RoN I find, through an analysis of Bolivian and Ecuador, that despite some moderate success in specific cases, the lofty goal of achieving
a more holistic, less anthropocentric national outlook in the context of a long history of extraction-caused devastation through their adoption has
faced a major road block in the form of growth. Growth, in this context, takes the form of a neo-extractivist economics whereby
increasing material flow out of the country forms the primary strategy for development and poverty alleviation . The
end result of the revolutionary Morales and Correa administrations has been further encroachment on Indigenous land and increasing threats to
the last bastions of biodiversity in these two nations, indicating a general failure in terms of the RoNs goals. Here degrowth could serve
both as a counterhegemonic discursive tool as well as a source of policies through which to achieve the good life
without environmental destruction or the dispossession of Indigenous groups .
Finally, I look at these two collective theories in the context of modernity itself, looked at as a set of inherent logics. By ‘inherent logic’ I
mean those values that exist, often below the surface of the collective conscious, that mould and limit the scope of
action and thought. These logics exist partly in human minds, and more completely in public discourse, policy
construction, governance arrangements and so on. I find that these two movements are mutually supporting in that they
target two of the greatest logics at the centre of modernity and the current crisis, the need to grow economic activity
and material throughput in order to prosper and anthropocentrism founded on the concept of the human-nature
duality. Degrowth offers space to imagine a way to organise society to achieve prosperity without constantly
increasing economic activity and material throughput. The RoN , both through laws inherent connection to culture
and due to the ideas regarding natures inherent value beyond the human at the core of this movement, challenges
anthropocentrism as a central logic withing society . Challenging such core tenants of modernity will likely be
necessary should we wish to build a better world in the ruins of modernity .
Rivers are key---they’re the lifeblood of the earth and river rights set a strong foundation
for broad recognition of nature’s rights
Monti Aguirre 20, Latin America coordinator of International Rivers; and Grant Wilson, executive director of the
Earth Law Center, 11/11/20, “Opinion: Time to recognise and respect rivers’ legal rights,”
https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/climate/opinion-time-to-recognise-and-respect-rivers-legal-rights/
Our new report, produced in collaboration with the Cyrus R. Vance Center for International Justice, finds that courts, legislatures and
indigenous authorities are increasingly recognising such natural rights, with a growing emphasis on rivers. Important
judicial and legislative developments took place in 2019 and 2020 in Bangladesh, Colombia, Uganda, Brazil and the United States, among other
jurisdictions. In September, environmental groups called on Ecuador’s highest court to enforce constitutional rights of nature to protect an
incredibly biodiverse freshwater ecosystem from mining. In the U nited S tates, several indigenous groups have recognised the
rights of rivers, including the Yurok with respect to the Klamath river and the Nez Perce general council on the Snake river.
In South Asia, earlier this year Bangladesh’s highest court affirmed that all rivers in the country are “living entities” and appointed a government
agency to act as their guardian. In India, in March 2020, the Punjab and Haryana High Court passed an order declaring Sukhna lake in
Chandigarh city a living entity, with similar rights as a person. These decisions followed a remarkable ruling in 2017 by the Uttarakhand High
Court in India recognising the legal personhood of the Ganga and Yamuna rivers; a ruling later stayed by the Supreme Court of India.
Our legal systems are failing
Released on the heels of a United Nations summit focused on the alarming loss of global biodiversity, our report offers insight into how
emerging legal precedent on the rights of nature can offer significant remedy. And that remedy can’t come soon
enough.
Rivers are the lifeblood of the planet . We rely on them for drinking water, fishing, agriculture and recreation. Many
rivers are also considered sacred. Rivers flow not only with water but with life, nurturing a magnificent array of fish, birds and other species,
from the headwaters to the ocean. As the Uttarakhand High Court declared in its 2017 ruling, rivers “are breathing, living, and sustaining the
communities from mountain to sea”.
But we are killing our rivers . Pollution, dams and the climate crisis have left waterways in a perilous state . According
to the World Wildlife Fund, two out of every three people experience a freshwater shortage for at least one month every
year, and populations of freshwater animals have declined by more than 80% since 1970. Clearly, our existing legal
frameworks to protect rivers are failing .
Unfortunately, the precipitous decline of rivers is entirely predictable. Most legal systems treat rivers as mere human
property, with no rights of their own. Our current economic system in many respects incentivises the wanton
exploitation of rivers – including their water, species and ecosystem functions – in order to maximise profits. Environmental laws
offer some protections, but they fail to challenge this paradigm or address the root causes .
Treat rivers and forests as ‘legal persons’
Instead of seeing water and rivers as commodities to be owned and exploited, a r ights o f n ature framework
acknowledges that nature has its own interests which must be respected by humans. Importantly, it allows legal actions
to be brought directly on behalf of rivers themselves, not merely as entities owned by human beings. By recognising
rights of nature, courts and legislatures can help preserve natural ecosystems for future generations and for everyone who
relies on them.
Although they may seem novel, the rights of nature fit comfortably in modern legal systems. The law has always
recognised the existence of non-human legal “persons”. If corporations and ships can be legal persons , there is no
reason why a river or forest cannot. We can also create new categories of rights-holders altogether.
Like corporations, ships or children, rivers can have designated guardians to represent their interests . As far back as 1972,
William Douglas, a United States Supreme Court justice, suggested that “those people who have a meaningful relation to that body of water —
whether it be a fisherman, a canoeist, a zoologist, or a logger” could be recognised as representatives of a river.
Today, that suggestion has become a reality. Courts and legislatures around the world have recognised or created bodies that
can speak on a river’s behalf. Te Awa Tupua is represented by a group of guardians appointed by the government and local Māori. In
Colombia, the Constitutional Court has created a comprehensive governance structure for the Atrato river, which is charged with conservation,
maintenance and restoration. And in Bhutan, the Royal Court of Justice recently devised new rules allowing environmental cases to be brought by
individuals acting as “trustees of nature”. Our research shows that all over the world, rights of nature are not just an idea: they are a concrete
reality.
The rights of nature movement is being led by a vibrant coalition of lawyers, activists and scientists. Indigenous
groups and concepts have been crucial to its development. Te Awa Tupua was created as part of a treaty settlement negotiated by
Māori people, and the Atrato river case was driven by the indigenous and Afro-descendant communities that have relied on the river for hundreds
of years. Western legal systems could learn much from indigenous legal systems . Concepts such as Māori kaitiakitanga
(stewardship) and Andean sumak kawsay (living well) reflect a worldview in which humans owe obligations to their natural environment. By
enshrining these principles in formal and customary law, indigenous systems have long recognised our shared
dependence on nature. Rights of nature offer an opportunity for other legal systems to learn from this insight .
As rights of nature laws and policies proliferate, a coalition of leading environmental organisations, scientists, politicians, indigenous leaders and
others are advancing a Universal Declaration of the Rights of Rivers, which describes the basic rights all rivers should be
entitled to. It will serve as a legislative starting point for governments that wish to pursue legal recognition of the
rights of rivers. Already, Jorge Octavio Villacaña Jiménez, a politician in Oaxaca, Mexico, is proposing state-wide rights of rivers legislation
inspired by the declaration, and many are soon to follow.
Rights of nature are no panacea. Restoring our long-neglected rivers will require extensive and immediate measures by
governments, courts, companies and civil society. But r ights o f n ature provide a framework for radical action .
They translate our ethical and spiritual obligations into legal systems and establish far-reaching enforceable rights
and duties . Recognising nature’s legal personality is something we owe to future generations and to the environment.
An economic system that prioritizes corporate rights over rights of nature guarantees
unsustainable growth and collapse---techno-fixes can’t solve, only re-drawing the
boundaries of the economy within biophysical limits can stave off extinction
Shannon Biggs 17, co-founder and Executive Director of Movement Rights and co-founder of the Global Alliance
for the Rights of Nature, et al., November 2017, “Rights of Nature & Mother Earth: Rights-Based Law for Systemic
Change,” https://www.ienearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/RONME-RightsBasedLaw-final-1.pdf
As humanity fast-tracks towards the collapse of our planetary systems , we sought to articulate a shared vision
toward a new economy based on living in balance with natural systems; where the rights of humans do not extend
to the domination of nature. We questioned the viability of a global economy whose jurisprudence places property
rights above all; recognizes corporate rights as the most sacred of property rights; subordinates human rights and the
collective rights of Indigenous Peoples to corporate rights; and where Nature is not recognized as having any intrinsic
rights at all .
We discussed the power and possibility of an emerging body of law— recognizing legal rights for ecosystems to exist ,
flourish and regenerate their vital cycles—as a necessary part of placing our human laws in alignment with Nature’s
laws, and our human actions and economy in an appropriate relationship with the natural order of which we are part. Major
points of discussion included the following:
• Living within the carrying capacity
of the planet we call home requires that we adhere to the natural laws governing all
life and does not extend human authority over them.
• In these respects, we recognize that ancient and living Indigenous cultures that live in connection with land, and have knowledge of its care,
have much to teach us about this world.
• Indigenous traditions tell us that all economic activity must be rooted in an understanding and respect of our sacred relationships with Mother
Earth, and that our continued wellbeing depends upon it.
• Science and common sense tell us that endless growth and the plundering of a finite planet is an impossibility, and an
absurdity.
• We must avoid techno-utopianism , the illusionary idea that technological innovation will provide a “fix” to the
inherent limits of a finite Earth. All technology must be subject to full life-cycle analyses , from sources to wastes to
interactive stimulations to development.
• The subordination of the web of life to the chains of the markets and growth of the corporate led system erodes the
primary means of existence on this planet , which is rooted in the diversity of life itself
• The current dominant economy fails to sustain and regenerate life because it is built on flawed foundations including:
» The endless industrial extraction and pollution of natural systems and functions;
» The privatization, commodification and legalized enslavement of nature as human and corporate property , which
places a price on nature and creates new derivative markets that increase inequality and expedite the destruction of ecosystems;
» A prevailing world-view that places humans above nature, and with dominion over nature (anthropocentrism);
» A worldview and economic system that demands expansion, consumption, profit and economic growth above all other values, without
recognition of carrying capacities of the planet and its ecosystems.
» Legal systems that ennoble private property at the expense of community, ecology and equity, and that directly serve the concentration of
extreme wealth in few hands.
» Militarism and endless war as a primary means of acquisition of governance over peoples and land, and a primary
expression of corporate growth models .
Changing the dominant legal and economic paradigms will require more than individual commitments to conservation
and “greener” shopping. It will require fundamental changes in law , especially the rules of the global economy. Law is
how we use power to make real the dominant values in a society . Over time most societies have cultivated the notion
that nature is a “thing” separate and apart from humans, and that understanding has been codified in law. The ownership of
ecosystems and other aspects of the natural world is promoted and protected by current law, upholding the control and dominance of humans over
nature.
Current law “sees” nature as human owned property. Prevailing law and world-views express and confirm human authority
over all of nature and do not provide the natural world with any legal standing in a court of law. From the tar sands of
Alberta to mountaintop removal for coal extraction, to fracking and deep ocean oil drilling , to the destruction of vast
tropical rainforests, to the massive continuing privatization of whole ecosystems, we have witnessed the horrifying
damage that has been done with the full blessing of the law. This cannot be sustained .
We seek a world where all human activity takes place in balance with the Earth’s offerings, and with reciprocity, dignity and respect for nature.
If we are to succeed as a species, we will need to redefine “wealth” away from financial accumulation towards
“sufficiency” and wellbeing. This will require a new body of human law to codify and enforce these values. We
therefore declare an imperative for the development and adoption of economic frameworks rooted in the inherent
legal Rights of Nature.
The Change to Come: Rights of Nature
The terms Rights of Nature or Rights of Mother Earth are interchangeable, though Indigenous preference for the use of Mother Earth better
describes our connection and relationship. Rights of Nature or Rights of Mother Earth seek to define equal legal rights for ecosystems to “exist,
flourish, and regenerate their natural capacities.” Recognizing these rights places obligations on humans to live within, not above, the natural
world, of which we are only one part, and to protect and replenish the ecosystems upon which our mutual wellbeing depends. In essence, it is
necessary to transform our human relationship with nature from property-based to a legal rights-bearing entity .
We are pointing to the need for a wholly different framework that recognizes that Earth’s living systems are not the
enslaved property of humans . Just as it is wrong for men to consider women property or one race to consider another race as property, it is
wrong for humans to see nature as property over which we have dominion. All
rights, including humans’, depend on the health and
vitality of Earth’s living systems. All other rights are derivative of these rights. This requires an essential paradigm
shift from a jurisprudence and legal system designed to secure and consolidate the power of a ruling oligarchy and a ruling
species, and to substitute a jurisprudence and legal system designed to serve all of the living Earth community .
In 2008, Ecuador became the first country to recognize Rights of Nature in their constitution. Bolivia has also passed national laws recognizing
the inherent rights of ecosystems. Nepal, and India and other countries are also putting forward similar national laws. Dozens of communities
across the US and around the world have taken similar action to place the rights of natural communities (including humans) above corporate
interests. The natural world is of a higher order of good that we dare not undercut. In that sense, it is sacred.
Call to Action
All must speak out for the needs of nature and our Mother Earth as a whole. It is our responsibility to live within the natural order that is sacred to
all life on earth. Wemust redraw the boundaries of the economy to bring them into line with ecological limits and the
common sense science of planetary boundaries. Nature’s needs are also our own and must be elevated and protected by
legal rights , and maintained through life-sustaining systems of exchange and reciprocity .
We therefore must initiate a process of re-educating societies, dispelling the dominant anthropocentric belief that the earth
belongs to humans. This will require fundamentally aligning global, regional, and local economic and legal structures
to exist within natural systems. Social movements must create the space for the shift that is necessary to protect against
the tide of corporate-led globalization.
The Rights of Nature demand regenerative, mature, and dynamic economic relations in which:
• The interdependence of humans and nature is primary; the laws of nature supersede rights to property; and vital natural cycles of life must be
protected for the good of all. Recognize that there is no separation between how we treat nature and how we treat ourselves;
• Nature is seen as the foundation of life itself; it is not seen as an inventory of goods and services for human beings, a dumping ground for
pollution and waste, or as capital;
• The rejection of all market-based mechanisms that allow the quantification and commodification of Earth’s natural processes, rebranded as
‘ecosystem services’;
• Indigenous Peoples are empowered by legal and cultural norms as partners or caretakers of the lands and territories in which they live;
• All communities must become true caretakers of the places in which they live, including writing new laws that recognize the rights of local
ecosystems to maintain their vital cycles and eliminate harmful projects in their midst;
• Whether one is Indigenous or not, we all must live in a responsible and natural way.
Scaling up rights of nature at the federal level is key to reorient environmental regulation
away from prioritizing corporate interests
Kai Huschke 20, the Northwest and Hawaii Organizer for the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund;
and Simon Davis-Cohen, research and communications associate for the Community Environmental Legal Defense
Fund, 4/16/20, “The EPA Has Abandoned Its Duty To Protect the Environment. ‘Rights of Nature’ Laws Can Fill
the Void,” https://inthesetimes.com/article/trump-epa-covid-19-environmental-law-rights-of-nature-air-water-
pollution
Authoritarian governments often prepare laws they wish to pass and have them “ready to go” when opportunity strikes. That’s what Fionnuala Ni
Aolain, a United Nations Special Rapporteur on Counterterrorism and Human Rights, recently told the New York Times.
“They draft laws in advance and wait ‘for the opportunity of the crisis to be presented,’” Ni Aolain explained.
It’s clear to us that greed-fueled bad actors are taking this pandemic as just such an opportunity. Corporate lobbies have quietly pushed
through laws criminalizing fossil fuel protests . Congress approved an unprecedented and unnecessary handout to
corporate America. Pipeline companies want to classify new pipelines as “essential,” including TC Energy, which got the
green light and began constructing the infamous Keystone XL pipeline. The federal government appears to be mulling a bailout for the fossil fuel
industry. And, last but not least, the Trump administration ordered the
E nvironmental P rotection A gency to stop enforcing anti-
pollution laws in some cases, removing what anemic oversight the EPA once held over corporate polluters, effectively suspending the agency
while taking action to roll back some environmental protections permanently .
The EPA’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic ― effectively ceasing enforcement of federal environmental laws ― will, regardless of the
motivations for this unprecedented decision, negatively impact peoples’ lives. This means that many communities, and the life-giving ecosystems
they depend upon, are on their own.
In this moment, many people are in shock, and for good reason. For others, however, this pandemic has not caused system failure but merely
exposed it. Innumerable communities across the U.S. know from first-hand experience that federal and state “regulations” do not
safeguard water, public health, and the ecosystems they rely on. Critically, they also understand the system of pollution “permits”
are a tool for the repression of democracy.
State and federal environmental laws have failed to avoid mass species die offs , cancers, public health catastrophes,
pervasive pollution, and the climate emergency.
Legalized Harm
Under this system of law, communities are forced to accept activities that are “permitted” by “environmental” law. The
democratic powers of such communities to govern corporations are superseded by federal and state regulations and
judge-made laws, like corporate “personhood,” that function to both legalize things that harm people and the
environment and prevent communities from protecting themselves.
Native nations, as well, have been assaulted by “environmental” laws that “permit” and “regulate” pipelines through
sacred land. For decades, such permits have always superseded the self-determining authority of these nations, often enshrined in treaties, to
say “no.”
Part of the problem is that old environmental laws treat ecosystems as property and function to legalize the status quo.
They offer polluters a shield of legal protection through the “permit” process.
Rights of Nature
For years, many communities
who have experienced this system firsthand have felt abandoned by their federal and
state “environmental” regulators . Many have taken their destiny into their own hands and stepped outside the modern paradigm of
environmental law. We must follow their lead.
In the past decade, multiple
Native nations and dozens of U nited S tates municipalities have passed enforceable Rights of
Nature laws. Arguably, 2019 was the movement’s biggest year in United States history. Here’s a rundown of what happened this past year:
The residents of Toledo, Ohio adopted the Lake Erie Bill of Rights, the first law in the U.S. to secure legal rights for a specific ecosystem.
Residents of Exeter and Nottingham, New Hampshire enacted laws elevating the rights of ecosystems above the rights of corporate polluters.
The Yurok tribe in the U.S. recognized legal rights of the Klamath River.
The High Court in Bangladesh recognized legal rights of rivers.
The National Lawyers Guild amended its constitution to include the rights of ecosystems.
A New York assemblyman proposed a law to recognize the rights of Lake Erie.
The Youth Climate Strike included Rights of Nature (and respect for indigenous sovereignty) in their list of demands.
Rights of Nature bills were introduced in Australia and the Philippines.
In Colombia, the Plata River was recognized as a “subject of rights.”
Quietly, 2020 is shaping up to be another historic year.
Just ahead of the EPA announcement, for the first time in U.S. history, a community successfully pressured a state to enforce a local Rights of
Nature law.
After seven years of community activism, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) revoked a permit for a frack waste
injection well in Grant Township, Pennsylvania. DEP officials cited Grant Township’s Home Rule Charter, which banned injection wells as a
violation of the Rights of Nature, as grounds for their reversal.
“Grant Township’s Home Rule Charter bans the injection of oil and gas waste fluids,” the DEP wrote. “Therefore, the operation of the [waste
injection] well as an oil and gas waste fluid injection well would violate that applicable law.”
Our colleague Chad Nicholson worked with Grant residents on the measure.
“This decision,” he said in a statement, “does not validate the actions of the DEP, but rather vindicates the resistance that communities like Grant
have engaged in to force governmental agencies into doing the right thing.”
Time to Scale Up
We live in a moment when multiple and radically different futures are possible . Some believe the pandemic is a
once-in-a-generation opportunity to remake society and build a more just and sustainable future . Meanwhile,
authoritarians and corporations are taking advantage of the moment to concentrate power and secure their future
profits .
In conjunction with new enforceable human rights to water, Rights of Nature is a “ready to go” peoples’ paradigm
shift. It is time to scale it up — crucially — such that those rights nullify the property rights of corporations when
there is a conflict .
We are talking about a course correction whereby the authority of human communities to govern the purpose and
behavior of corporations is recognized and enforced. It means changing the very purpose of the law that binds us
together. It means thinking about what is really “essential,” and driving that life-centered ethic into the law .
Communities across the country have already begun to rethink how human law treats the ecosystems our societies depend on. This new paradigm
is long overdue.
Sustainability Advantage
Internal Link
IL---AT: U.S. Not Key to Global Action (Houck 17)
Houck concludes current global action’s precarious and reversible---makes the aff key
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
All of this progress noted, one would be remiss not to recognize that the situation today is precarious . No country
on earth has done a more dramatic turnabout on environmental protection than the U nited S tates, whose relevant
agencies are now both led and staffed by individuals who have spent their professional lives opposing them ,
137even their right to [*25] exist. 138 Protective regulations are falling like ten-pins, and this is only the beginning.
139Nowhere in the world can one be confident that nature as we know it today, even in its diminished state, can
endure. All of which has fostered proposals to recognize nature's own rights more directly and raised legal questions
in turn that we can no longer ignore.
IL---Degrowth---Global Spillover/Modeling
Strong rights of nature get modeled globally due to judicial borrowing---that’s key to
overcome growth economics worldwide
Mark Hawkins 21, MSc in Environment, Politics and Development from the University of London, January
2021, “Imagining a Post-Development Future: What can the Degrowth and Rights of Nature Debates Offer Each
Other,” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348785651_Imagining_a_Post-
Development_Future_What_can_the_Degrowth_and_Rights_of_Nature_Debates_Offer_Each_Other
The RoN, unlike degrowth, have real world examples of its implementation, most notably in the constitutions of Ecuador and
Bolivia. Its greatest strength is that it addresses a key weakness in modern environmental law : it is difficult to show
one's rights have been damaged by the destruction or spoiling of a natural biome. One of the first mentions of the RoN was
put forward in the 1972 Supreme Court case on the issue of legal standing, in which the court rejected the Sierra Club, an environmental
organization, seeking to block the development of a ski resort in the Sierra Nevada mountains. Justice William O. Douglas, in a dissenting
opinion, advised that environmental objects should be granted legal personhood to make them legible before the law (Ogden 2018). In this vein in
Article 71 of the Ecuadorian constitution and Article 34 of the Bolivian constitution it is stipulated that any member of the
public may bring RoN cases before the courts, thus theoretically making it possible for anyone to intervene on the side
of the natural environment (Ecuador 7.71, Bolivia V.I.34.). Another strength of the RoN is its connection to Indigenous
thought. Kauffman & Martin (2018) argue in the case of the Wanganui river in New Zealand that RoN represents a compromise
between the modern state and Indigenous worldviews. This gives RoN great promise , representing a way to move
beyond the man nature duality, one of the pillars of modernity which is often absent from Indigenous thought
(Gudynas 2010). Furthermore, legal concepts are particularly mobile in the modern hyperconnected world thanks to
judicial borrowing . Affolder (2019) calls this “ contagious law-making ”, thus capturing both the spread of ideas from host
to host and the mutating of these ideas as they spread around the globe. The contagious nature of legal innovations,
especially in the case of environmental law , gives legal principles a malleability and manoeuvrability quite above
regular policy proposals. Yet law is often underrepresented in post-developmental arguments, in the case of degrowth this is
particularly true.
And so, we can see the context of these two schools of thought from the forefront of the post-development, where anthropocentric
development-through-growth has come against biophysical limits and an increasingly organised and broad coalition of critics.
The core of this idea, with its utility to continued accumulation, is the framing of continued growth as a ‘tide to raise
all boats’, paid for by a nature imagined as external, distant and limitless . Having introduced the key concepts, we will now
look at some blind spots in the two movements.
IL---Degrowth---Broad/General
Rights of nature are vital to put hard limits on growth that mandate sustainability---that
prompts a shift from focusing on GDP towards net positive impact as the metric for growth
Linda Sheehan 17, Executive Director, Planet Pledge, 4/21/17, “The Role of Nature’s Rights in Achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals,” http://files.harmonywithnatureun.org/uploads/upload651.pdf
First, how does nature’s rights help us understand what “sustainable” behavior looks like? “Sustainability” as a concept should guide us
to improve the health of the biosphere and our relationship with it, rather than prop up current, harmful
consumption and production practices . The Expert Report on Earth Jurisprudence submitted to you describes “sustainable” behavior as
being “reconnect[ed] … with Nature’s processes.” The Report emphasizes that nature can no longer be treated as a commodity – it
is our relation, and we must evolve law and policy to reflect that fact.
The concept of rights helps us understand this point more clearly. The 2030 SDG Agenda seeks to “realize the human rights of
all,” and adds that the SDGs are “grounded in” the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This is important, but we also must ground the SDGs
in nature’s rights if we are to protect human rights in practice.
For example, the U.N. has acknowledged that the human right to water is “a prerequisite for the realization of other human
rights .”1 But how can we say we have a right to something, like a waterway, if it does not itself have a right to exist
and thrive? The Earth Jurisprudence Report recommends that we fix this gap by recognizing nature’s rights in law
and practice , just as we recognize human rights and the rights of indigenous peoples.
Governments around the world are already taking up this charge. Just in the last few weeks, we have seen legislation passed at the national level
in New Zealand and two court decisions in India, which have recognized the legal personhood and rights of ecosystems and species. In addition,
the IUCN’s World Commission on Environmental Law recently concluded that recognition of nature’s inherent right to “exist, thrive, and
evolve” is essential to ensure ecologically sustainable development.
Just as law and policy grounded in human rights sets a higher standard for action, so too does law and policy grounded in nature’s
rights better protect the well‐being of ecosystems and species. Defining “sustainability” in terms of nature’s right to
thrive is significantly different from what we do now. We treat nature as a commodity for our economic system
first, with only limited safeguards to slow nature’s degradation. This approach is failing , as species and habitats
rapidly disappear and the global temperature continues to warm.
We must set our sights higher. The 2030 Agenda makes room for nature’s rights, calling for a “healthy environment” and declaring a
vision of a world “where all life can thrive.” The structure of our laws, policies, and scientific inquiry must support this core vision
of sustainability. This brings us to the second question: how does nature’s rights inform the meaning of “sustainable
development,” and how do we achieve such development in practice? Putting profit before people and nature is
unsustainable development . We must redefine what we expect sustainable business and finance to look like, and move
away from a primary profit objective and toward expanding benefits for Earth society, which includes all life.
What does this mean in practice? One conclusion is that we need to replace g ross d omestic p roduct as
a desirable measure of
sustainable progress. The Earth Jurisprudence Report observes that “blind adherence to economic growth as a measure of well–
being has resulted in increasing harm to the planet and to all of us.” GDP growth does not translate to sustainable
development ; it includes all development, both good and tragic. Earlier this year, the World Economic Forum itself criticized
such economic growth as failing to address the needs of the political economy.
Sustainable development calls on us to choose our actions in light of their broader impacts, rather than continue to
focus on short‐term profit . Fortunately, this economic evolution is already beginning. More businesses are measuring success not just by
profits and economic growth, but also by the measureable social and ecological benefits they generate. More investors are demanding investment
products that offer both financial returns and strong social and ecological returns. This expanded focus allows for improved consideration and
management of risk, and so can result in better financial performances over time than conventional instruments.
One such example is the increasing number of investments related to mitigating climate change, to help the world stay below the 2oC threshold.
The social and ecological impacts of climate change are potentially catastrophic and irreversible . Financial
investments that recognize and mitigate such risks, such as investments in the low carbon economy, will ensure sustainability
far more effectively than those that merely increase GDP. It is with climate change in mind that the World Economic Forum also
identified an “urgent” need for “long‐term thinking” in our economic system. To be sustainable in fact, development must be conceived and
implemented in light of the magnitude of the long‐term risks of climate change and other global stressors.
Our sustainable development objective, however, is not merely occasional success. We must create instead a self‐perpetuating
system, designed to generate development and investment behavior that regularly advances net positive impacts for
human and ecological communities. We need to think beyond current investment and economic practices to do this .
For instance, we should consistently place higher costs on economic behaviors that cause injury, such as fossil fuels ,
and reward with higher returns those economic choices that measurably benefit people and planet . Tying our
economic, business, and finance priorities to progress in safeguarding nature’s rights and human rights will help us
measure our success and keep us on track.
We also must evolve our characterization of nature as an economic commodity. Our relationship with nature is fundamentally familial and local.
As the Earth Jurisprudence Report recommend, development must reconnect with and respect nature’s processes, rather than
destroy those processes in the name of profit.
This brings us to our third question: how do we adjust our actions to best achieve our core sustainable development goal as
soon as possible? We have little time to course‐correct before the impacts of climate change, species extinctions,
and habitat destruction create tipping points that irreversibly injure all life .
The key is to focus on the 2030 Agenda’s core goal: “a world…where all life can thrive.” This includes the natural world, as we are inseparable
from it.
Our core goal for 2030 is not sustainable development. Our goal instead is a thriving world; sustainable development is just a tool. Nature’s
rights provides a necessary foundation from which our governance systems can build truly sustainable development
practices that will help us achieve our goal, including finance and business systems designed to seek out and
maximize ecological and social gains.
The distinguished members of this Assembly can take action now in this direction , by advancing nature’s rights laws
locally, as numerous communities and nations have done already, and by supporting a Declaration on the Rights of Nature.
Nature rights are vital to put boundaries on growth that make it sustainable
David R. Boyd 17, associate professor of law, policy, and sustainability at the University of British Columbia,
2017, The Rights of Nature: A Legal Revolution That Could Save the World, unpaginated ebook edition
Rights for nature impose responsibilities on humans to modify our behaviour in ways that will re-establish a
mutually beneficial relationship. Recognizing and respecting nature’s rights does not put an end to all human activities,
but requires eliminating or modifying those which inflict suffering on animals, threaten the survival of species, or undermine the
ecological systems that all life depends on . The precise meaning and effects of recognizing the rights of nature will
be worked out through community conversations, scholarly dialogue, public and political debates, negotiation, and, where
necessary, litigation, just as all novel legal concepts evolve.
It should be obvious that nature’s rights cannot be reconciled with endless economic growth, consumerism,
unconstrained globalization, or laissez-faire capitalism. We cannot continue to prioritize property rights and
corporate rights, burn fossil fuels at current rates , or perpetuate today’s linear economy that treats nature as a
commodity rather than a community. Actions needed to respect, protect, and fulfill nature’s rights include treating all
animals (human and non-human) with greater empathy and respect; rapidly shifting to 100 percent renewable energy ; protecting
vital natural cycles of life, such as water , carbon, and nitrogen; focusing on local production and consumption; and
redesigning the economy to acknowledge ecological limits and emulate nature’s circular approach . In a circular
economy, all inputs, outputs, and byproducts must be non-toxic, reusable, recyclable, or compostable. By redesigning products, processes, and
supply chains, we could create a restorative economy that benefits both people and the planet.
Perhaps the most critical missing piece of the puzzle is an informed public willing and able to close the gap between their actions and their
professed love of animals, endangered species, and nature. We need to place ecological literacy on par with reading, writing, and arithmetic as
foundational learning in our education systems. People need to speak out about the rights of nature and elect politicians who are willing to do the
same. People need to rethink their own priorities so as to leave a lighter footprint on the Earth and cause less suffering to animals, using
renewable energy, eating less meat and dairy (and shifting to ethical sources), reducing consumption, and shifting purchases toward services and
cradle-to-cradle products.
Many questions remain regarding the impact of recognizing nature’s rights. Yet there is a widespread and growing sense that treating nature
as a mere warehouse of resources for our use, and a repository for our pollution and garbage, is fundamentally
wrong. Cormac Cullinan believes that “the day will come when the failure of our laws to recognize the right of a river to
flow, to prohibit acts that destabilize Earth’s climate, or to impose a duty to respect the intrinsic value and right to exist of all life
will be as reprehensible as allowing people to be bought and sold.” Propelled by the global environmental crisis, the rights of
nature movement has the potential to create a world where people live in genuine harmony with nature . It forces us to
reflect upon the fact that we live on the only planet in the universe known to support life. Our evolution, and the evolution of the millions of other
species both different from and similar to humans, have combined to form an interdependent fabric that makes this planet a natural miracle, a
one-in-a-billion long shot.
IL---Degrowth---Extractive Industries
Rights of nature are the core of a material degrowth agenda---they directly limit the
extractive industries that fuel endless consumption and marginalize Indigenous populations
Mark Hawkins 21, MSc in Environment, Politics and Development from the University of London, January
2021, “Imagining a Post-Development Future: What can the Degrowth and Rights of Nature Debates Offer Each
Other,” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348785651_Imagining_a_Post-
Development_Future_What_can_the_Degrowth_and_Rights_of_Nature_Debates_Offer_Each_Other
In terms of degrowth the RoN offer a vanguard policy . Firstly, they are contagious , and have the ability to spread
beyond sluggish governments all too often in the thrall of powerful economic interests. Secondly the RoN are of
particular relevance to Indigenous people both directly in that they offer another tool in Indigenous groups and their
allies arsenals in resisting extraction and dispossession and indirectly in that they contribute to moving towards
pluralistic legal systems more responsive to Indigenous customs and world views. Indigenous groups that are
currently not adequately defended in degrowth, especially given they are historically and currently the greatest
victims of growth and accumulation . Thirdly as we have seen in the Columbia case, and will see in the cases of
Ecuador and Bolivia below it is extractive industries that are the targets of RoN laws, and it is in response to these
industries that such laws often surface. It is these sights of extraction that growth originates , by the creation of the
conditions that allow for the cheap natural resources to be obtained to fuel industry and consumption; materials
obtained from the land of the marginalised .
IL---Degrowth---Transition
Transition would work---balancing growth policies during the transition and practical
lifestyle changes will gain public support
Claudio Cattaneo 17, researcher at the Barcelona Institute of Regional and Metropolitan Studies of Autonomous
University (IERMB-UAB) on energy and landscape analysis, Ph.D. in Ecological Economics from Universitat
Autònoma de Barcelona, July 2017, “Degrowth – Taking Stock and Reviewing an Emerging Academic Paradigm,”
Ecological Economics, Vol. 137, p. 8
Moreover, growth policies may not necessarily be abandoned on a finite planet earth. Instead, such policies may allow
making maximum use of available resources (be it through expanded resource extraction, technological innovation, or increased
commodification of society) in the short term, while in parallel enabling the development of means to cope with
environmental limits in the long term. Drought in California arguably forced residential water consumption to
decrease in 2014 by some 30% (Reese, 2015) without causing major social disruptions. Such a decrease may not have been
achievable by appealing to voluntary frugality nor may have water-saving policies obtained sufficient public support
by pointing out unsustainable water consumption. The observed water savings might be temporary but show the capacity of humans to adapt in
face of acute resource shortage. The case also points to the importance of technology as a catalyst for factor substitution in production and
consumption in response to environmental constraints.
To be successful, degrowth has to identify a concrete and inclusive development perspective (see Schwartzman, 2012) for
the affluent and powerful elites and the marginalized poor. Direct benefits of degrowth might be experienced by
consumers in areas where further growth has obviously become undesirable, such as in the health care industry as illustrated
by Missoni (2015), in the food, nutrition and the agricultural sector, or in urban transportation. Degrowth
could address psychological
stress related to over consumption, long working hours, and the commodification of social relations and highlight
the benefits of a simplified life style away from positional competition and towards more collaborative community development.
Addressing life quality around resonant human interactions (Rosa, 2015) in face of increasing competition and
individuation may be a viable angle to highlight the benefits of degrowth . Decreasing working time can mitigate
environmental degradation (Knight et al., 2013, Fitzgerald et al., 2015) and provide a leverage point for virtually all other
degrowth proposals. In fact, we would regard a decrease in working time as the single silver bullet through which
degrowth can yield personal welfare gains, increase environmental sustainability , enhance democracy, and thus
obtain the support of larger parts of the population . Yet, to be a fulfilling choice, reduced working time, and degrowth in more
general, may hinge on a wider cultural recognition (see, e.g., Skidelsky and Skidelsky, 2012) that still appears to be hampered under the present
societal conditions.
Kallis (2013) argues that societies have the capacity to steer social processes towards degrowth, thereby opposing the view of
Sorman and Giampietro (2013) who consider that societies are destined to grow, crash, and adapt. We see a larger and more
differentiated space of development to which the degrowth discourse contributes visions for both social and
economic adaptation and the mitigation of environmental impacts. In a resource-constraint world, degrowth may
occur as a gradual and locally-specific transition (Buch-Hansen, 2014). We argue with Ott (2012) in favor of political prudence
through addressing specific problems with specific policies and against the pursuit of grand new utopias that often come with unintended
consequences.
Impact---Degrowth
Impact---Degrowth---AT: Turns---Top
Environmental destruction makes economic growth terminally unsustainable---river rights
are vital to avert catastrophic collapse
Brandon Rosenbach 19, Earth Law Center, 2/12/19, “Earth Law Makes Economic Sense,”
https://www.earthlawcenter.org/blog-entries/2019/2/earth-law-makes-economic-sense
The Guardian puts it most succinctly:
Natural capital is everything nature provides us for free. It is what our economy is built upon . We add man-made capital
in the shape of houses, factories, offices and physical infrastructure, and human capital with our skills, ideas and science.
Natural capital should, therefore, be at the heart of economics and economic policy – but it isn’t. As a consequence we
abuse nature, drive species to extinction , and destroy ecosystems and habitats without much thought to the
consequences. The damage won’t go away; as we wipe out perhaps half the species on the planet this century and induce
significant climate change, the economic growth we take for granted will be seriously impaired . Put simply, our disregard for
natural capital is unsustainable – it will not be sustained.
Since the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970, politicians and citizens alike have expected increased
environmental protection to result in a decrease in economic efficiency. One of the most common arguments against
increased environmental regulations claims that small businesses, the energy sector, and job growth will be stifled by
increased protections.
Logically, people assume that more protection will means businesses will need to spend more money to comply with new laws, but is it
necessarily true that strengthening environmental laws stifles business and the economy? No , in fact, many of the EPA’s
policies—such as acts promoting clean air and water—have resulted in a net economic benefit for the U nited S tates and
countless local communities.
Earth Law Center is one organization that works towards the same end – ensuring the long-term health of natural ecosystems and fellow species.
Earth Law Center helps local partners enact laws to protect coral reefs, rivers, and oceans across the US and around the world, areas that could
also provide economic benefits to local communities.
THE EPA AND THE CLEAN AIR ACT
To combat a rising trend of air quality issues resulting in both illness and death of human citizens, the EPA passed the Clean Air Act in 1970.
This required the EPA to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), effectively defining pollution standards for industrial and
automobile businesses. Predictably, companies and politicians argued the new laws would hinder business and the economy; opponents across
auto, steel and electrical utility industries combined forces to unsuccessfully delay the implementation timetable. In fact, opposition to strict clean
air standards has continued despite data, from 1970 until now, indicating significant improvements in air quality along with new growth sectors.
From 1972 to 2014, the six major pollutants outlined by the Clean Air Act have been reduced by 69%. There are no longer rampant smog alerts,
and it is uncommon in most cities for particulate emissions to obscure skylines. The health benefits resulting from the legislation have been
astounding, as cleaner air means fewer respiratory issues—including acute bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma—and a reduction in heart attacks.
The increased health of the general public in the United States equates to overall economic savings. In 2010 alone, an avoidance of 160,000
premature deaths from respiratory illness and 130,000 heart attacks can be attributed to cleaner air standards. These health benefits, which have
resulted in 13 million lost work days avoided, have brought about $22 trillion in cost savings compared to only $.5 trillion in costs related to the
bill. In the same time period, from 1972–2014, coal production, oil refineries, and the overall economy have all increased in production and
efficiency.
The Clean Energy Sector is a prime example of a new growth sector spurred by regulation changes. This year, the renewable energy surged to
18% of the U.S. power mix, signifying the success of the growing industry. At the same time, both greenhouse gas emissions from power
generation and consumer spending have declined. The wind and solar projects, which make up 62% of new power construction, are creating jobs
faster than the rest of the economy. Pioneers in the clean energy field are continuously developing new technologies improving our ability to
harness and save energy. The sector’s unprecedented growth stems from diverse support from local and state governments , corporations, and
organizations dedicated to a cleaner future, and with continued government support, the renewable energy sector will continue growing.
BUSINESSES NEED THE ENVIRONMENT TO SURVIVE
The Guardian notes that…the survival of society needs a supportive natural environment, not one ravaged by climate change. But
neither will happen unless we manage scarce resources at our disposal more successfully in both financial and
environmental terms.
Businesses are " sawing off the branch on which they stand " by failing to account for the natural capital impacts of
their operations, a senior member of WWF-UK has said. The charity's director of advocacy Trevor Hutchings, who is speaking about natural
capital at this week’s Sustainability Leaders Forum in London, believes businesses that treat natural resources such as water, forests,
and metals as 'infinite' are guilty of “extreme short-termism”.
Progressive business thinkers have already started to change their behavior. Hundreds of investors from around the world, who manage $24
trillion in assets, supported the UN climate deal in Paris 2015. The board of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the heirs to the world’s first great oil
fortune, divested from fossil fuels in their portfolio several years ago.
A ground-breaking new study, co-authored by almost 50 scientists, including Rainforest Alliance Chief Program Officer Nigel Sizer, charts an
ambitious yet achievable plan to halt mass extinction through a strategy of protecting half the Earth by 2050. The plan, linked to a policy
initiative called the Global Deal for Nature (GDN), is being proposed as a companion pact to the Paris Climate Agreement.
SAVING THE REMAINING HALF OF THE WORLD’S CORAL REEFS
Earth Law Center has joined with partners to save half of the coral reefs we still have left. With half of the world’s coral reefs already destroyed,
we have a unique opportunity to act now. Nonetheless, reefs face the problem that so many environmental resources face, the tragedy of the
commons. Individuals use the resource how it best suits themselves, without thinking about the consequences of
everyone using the resource just as they are. Reefs, being very close to shore, are particularly susceptible to damage from human
activity. In some instances, locals near reefs have banded together to protect reefs and establish new rules and regulations. In some circumstances,
environmental rules and regulations have failed because local people whose livelihoods are connected to the reefs will not accept lessening their
use of a reef in the present to ensure it can still support life in the future.
Globally, coral reefs and their ecosystems have an estimated value of $2.7 trillion dollars per year, providing economic goods and services worth
$375 billion each year. Reefs provide significant food sources for people around the world. A large problem in protecting coral reefs is
overfishing, and fishermen, who rely on reefs to survive, resist new regulations. Reefs also help protect coastlines by acting as natural
breakwaters, minimizing the impact of waves, flooding, and coastline erosion. The global net benefit of reefs acting as natural breakwaters is $9
billion per year. It is estimated that 63 million people live less than 33 feet above sea level and less than two miles from a coral reef. If waves
enter these areas without being blocked by reefs, they could cause loss of life or property.
Reefs, which provide habitat for a quarter of known marine species, are a key driver of tourism. In southeast Florida alone, reefs support 70,400
full and part-time jobs, related to fishing, scuba diving, and snorkeling tourism. Reefs are the backbone of many local economies around the
world, and many local governments have begun to protect these resources that cannot be replaced.
Belize is home to one of the most spectacular and biodiverse reefs on the globe, but in 2009, the reef was put on UNESCO’s “danger” list. In
response, the Belizean government has enacted new laws and procedures to restore the reef, which is the country’s most popular tourist attraction.
The Belize Government became the first country in the world to put a temporary ban on all offshore drilling and exploration. The government has
also banned single-use styrofoam cups and tripled the size of “no-take” zones to ensure ocean development. Economics help drive reef protection
in Belize. 200,000 Belizeans rely on the reef’s survival, and 15% of the country’s GDP comes from the reef. The reef also provides coastline
protection worth $350 million per year. Without the reef, many of the local businesses and people would struggle. The Belizean government’s
dedication towards protecting the reef has resulted in measurable benefits to ocean biodiversity, and it is imperative to the local economy that the
government continues in its efforts. Reefs, which account for 2.2% of all global ecosystem service values per year, are not only an important
environmental resource but a valuable economic resource as well.
Manta ray tourism is worth an estimated USD15 million in Indonesia. Raja Ampat, in the Papua region of Indonesia, has become a shining
example of marine eco-tourism, with manta rays serving as a conservation icon for this regency. Although their populations have been severely
depleted elsewhere in the region, manta rays are still abundant in the waters of Raja Ampat, largely due to progressive conservation measures
enacted by the local government. In November 2010, the head regent of Raja Ampat made a historic declaration, designating the entire 46,000
square kilometers (17,760 square miles) of Raja Ampat a sanctuary for sharks, manta rays, mobula rays, dugongs and turtles.
LET’S RESTORE AND PROTECT THE WORLD’S RIVERS
Earth Law Center drafted the Universal Declaration of Rights of Rivers and with partners, is seeking legal rights for
rivers around the globe. Rivers face threats from pollution, reduced flows, dam construction, energy production, and
more. Some 80% of the world’s wastewater is dumped—largely untreated—back into the environment, polluting rivers,
lakes, and oceans. Once a river is polluted, it is both expensive and difficult to restore clean ecosystems. Akin to
maintaining air free of pollutants, clean rivers are vital to healthy populations in our country and across the world .
The economic value of rivers cannot be taken for granted. The Colorado River, which runs through seven states, supports over
16 million jobs, accounts for $1.4 trillion in yearly economic activity, and plays a crucial role in the economy of the southwest
U nited S tates. A study commissioned by Arizona State University states that 87% of Nevada’s Gross State Product relies on Colorado River
water. The river is currently facing droughts and dropping water flow, and despite aggressive conservation efforts, there is a chance
the river will never again return to its previous healthy state.
The Ganges River, which runs through India and Bangladesh, is a holy body of water for Hindus who view it as a purification tool. Burying ashes
in the river ensures a break from the cycle of rebirth, and many Indians travel to the river to ceremonially spread the ashes of their loved ones.
The river’s holy status means people constantly use it to bath, swim and drink, resulting in an extremely polluted body of water. In 1985, the
Indian government raised $250 million to restore the river with limited efforts. Recently, government officials raised $3 billion dollars to clean
the holy river, but the initiative is struggling and behind schedule despite support from the prime minister.
When a local a river is polluted, countless local businesses are negatively affected . Roger Zalneraitis, executive director of
La Plata County Economic Development alliance, stressed the range of economic impacts a waste spill in the Animas River has had in
surrounding areas. Businesses directly associated with the river, such as rafting and fishing operations, were forced to temporarily closed. Other
business—like farms, nurseries, real estate agents, and photographers—have lost revenues from the river pollution.
HOW EARTH LAW CAN HELP
Earth Law Center is building an international movement from the ground up, one that gives better grounding to the idea that humans have a
responsibility for how we impact the world around us. The belief that nature - the species and ecosystems that comprise our
world - has inherent rights has proven to be a galvanizing idea, and we work with local communities to help them organize around
the rights of nature to protect their environment from the threats that they see. The heart of the ELC approach is to seek legal
personhood for ecosystems and species, a designation similar to that given to corporations in U.S. law, and one that if done
well will imply both rights for the entities so designated and responsibilities on the part of human beings and societies
to respect those rights.
Empowering nature empowers communities: when advocates see themselves as rights defenders rather than responsible
stewards of nature for human ends, the stakes are raised, and the relationships between people and the environment
is transformed. Part of this transformation involves rethinking how we determine value , as well as what we value.
EVERYONE BENEFITS FROM HEALTHY NATURE, THE ECONOMY INCLUDED
Despite the common opinion and rhetoric that environmental protection results in economic loss, many areas of
environmental protection will help rather than hurt the economy . Since the inception of the EPA, politicians have tried to
undermine environmental protection claiming to be pro-business.
Environmental resources, however, play a key role in maintaining human health, and in areas around the world, people
and local economies rely on these resources for their livelihoods.
When assessing the impact of new regulations and stricter laws, it is imperative to look beyond immediate business
procedures that may need to change to find the true net benefit of protecting a natural resource .
Even massive, long-term econ decline has minimal effects on the probability of war
Stephen M. Walt 20, the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University,
5/13/20, “Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War?,”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/coronavirus-pandemic-depression-economy-world-war/
If one takes a longer-term perspective, however, a sustained economic depression could make war more likely by
strengthening fascist or xenophobic political movements, fueling protectionism and hypernationalism, and making it more
difficult for countries to reach mutually acceptable bargains with each other. The history of the 1930s shows where such trends can
lead, although the economic effects of the Depression are hardly the only reason world politics took such a deadly turn in the 1930s. Nationalism,
xenophobia, and authoritarian rule were making a comeback well before COVID-19 struck, but the economic misery now occurring in every
corner of the world could intensify these trends and leave us in a more war-prone condition when fear of the virus has diminished.
On balance , however, I do not think that even the extraordinary economic conditions we are witnessing today are
going to have much impact on the likelihood of war. Why? First of all, if depressions were a powerful cause of war,
there would be a lot more of the latter . To take one example, the U nited S tates has suffered 40 or more recessions since the
country was founded, yet it has fought perhaps 20 interstate wars, most of them unrelated to the state of the economy. To
paraphrase the economist Paul Samuelson’s famous quip about the stock market, if recessions were a powerful cause of war, they would have
predicted “nine out of the last five (or fewer).”
Second, states do not start wars unless they believe they will win a quick and relatively cheap victory . As John
Mearsheimer showed in his classic book Conventional Deterrence, national leaders avoid war when they are convinced it will be
long, bloody, costly, and uncertain. To choose war, political leaders have to convince themselves they can either win a quick, cheap, and
decisive victory or achieve some limited objective at low cost. Europe went to war in 1914 with each side believing it would win a rapid and easy
victory, and Nazi Germany developed the strategy of blitzkrieg in order to subdue its foes as quickly and cheaply as possible. Iraq attacked Iran in
1980 because Saddam believed the Islamic Republic was in disarray and would be easy to defeat, and George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003
convinced the war would be short, successful, and pay for itself.
The fact that each of these leaders miscalculated badly does not alter the main point: No matter what a country’s
economic condition might be, its leaders will not go to war unless they think they can do so quickly, cheaply, and
with a reasonable probability of success.
Third, and most important, the primary motivation for most wars is the desire for security, not economic gain. For this
reason, the odds of war increase when states believe the long-term balance of power may be shifting against them, when they are convinced that
adversaries are unalterably hostile and cannot be accommodated, and when they are confident they can reverse the unfavorable trends and
establish a secure position if they act now. The historian A.J.P. Taylor once observed that “every war between Great Powers [between 1848 and
1918] … started as a preventive war, not as a war of conquest,” and that remains true of most wars fought since then.
The bottom line: Economic conditions (i.e., a depression) may affect the broader political environment in which
decisions for war or peace are made, but they are only one factor among many and rarely the most significant . Even
if the COVID-19 pandemic has large, lasting, and negative effects on the world economy —as seems quite likely—it is
not likely to affect the probability of war very much, especially in the short term.
2AC---Primacy Defense
Primacy’s not key to peace
Christopher Preble 16, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, 8/31/16, “NO
MORE OF THE SAME: THE PROBLEM WITH PRIMACY,” https://warontherocks.com/2016/08/no-more-of-the-
same-the-problem-with-primacy/
Such expenditures might still be justified if they were instrumental in keeping Americans safe. But, in fact, primacy is based on a number of
faulty premises , including: (a) that the United States is subjected to more urgent and prevalent threats than ever before; (b)
that U.S. security guarantees reassure nervous allies and thus contribute to global peace and stability; and (c) that a large and
active U.S. military is essential to the health of the international economy.
Primacists hold that the United States cannot adopt a wait-and-see attitude with respect to distant trouble spots. They believe that the
security of all states are bound together and that threats to others are actually threats to the United States. Primacists believe
that instability and crises abroad will adversely affect American interests if they are allowed to fester. “The alternative to Pax Americana—the
only alternative—is global disorder,” writes the Wall Street Journal’s Bret Stephens, with emphasis. Because any problem, in any part of the
world, could eventually threaten U.S. security or U.S. interests, primacy aims to stop all problems before they occur .
This assumption is based on a very selective reading of world history, grossly exaggerates the United States’ ability to control
outcomes, and underplays its costs. It also miscasts the nature of the threats that are facing us.
Tech nology has not evaporated the seas , allowing large land armies to march across the ocean floor. Meanwhile,
potential challengers like China face more urgent problems that will diminish their desire and ability to project power
outside of their neighborhood. They can cause trouble in the South China Sea, but that does not mean they can or will in the South Pacific or the
Caribbean. China’s economic troubles and rising popular unrest, for example, could constrain Chinese military spending increases and focus
Beijing’s attention at home. Causing problems abroad would threaten critical trading relations that are essential to the health of
the Chinese economy.
Primacists argue that we cannot rely on oceans to halt nuclear missiles that fly over them or cyberattacks in the virtual realm.
And terrorists could infiltrate by land, sea, or air, or they could be grown right here at home. But our own nuclear weapons provide a
powerful deterrent against state actors with return addresses, and a massive, forward-deployed military is not the best tool
for dealing with terrorists and hackers. The hard part is finding them and stopping them before they act. That is a job for the intelligence
and law enforcement communities, respectively. And small-footprint military units like special operations forces can help as needed.
There have always been dangers in the world, and there always will be. To the extent that we can identify myriad threats that our
ancestors could not fathom, primacy compounds the problem . By calling on the United States to deal with so many threats, to so many
people, in so many places, primacy ensures that even distant problems become our own.
Primacy’s other key problem is that, contrary to the claims of its advocates, it inadvertently increases the risk of conflict.
Allies are more willing to confront powerful rivals because they are confident that the United States will rescue them
if the confrontation turns ugly, a classic case of moral hazard, or what MIT’s Barry Posen calls “reckless driving.”
Restraining our impulse to intervene militarily or diplomatically when our safety and vital national interests are not threatened
would reduce the likelihood that our friends and allies will engage in such reckless behavior in the first place. Plus, a more
restrained foreign policy would encourage others to assume the burden of defending themselves.
Such a move on the part of our allies could prove essential, given that primacy has not stopped our rivals from
challenging U.S. power . Russia and China, for example, have resisted the U.S. government’s efforts to expand its influence in Europe and
Asia. Indeed, by provoking security fears, primacy exacerbates the very sorts of problems that it claims to prevent,
including nuclear proliferation. U.S. efforts at regime change and talk of an “axis of evil” that needed to be eliminated certainly provided
additional incentives for states to develop nuclear weapons to deter U.S. actions (e.g., North Korea).
Meanwhile, efforts intended to smother security competition or hostile ideologies have destabilized vast regions, undermined
our counterterrorism efforts, and even harmed those we were ostensibly trying to help. After U.S. forces deposed the tyrant Saddam Hussein in
2003, Iraq descended into chaos and has never recovered. The civil war in Syria, and the problem of the Islamic State in particular, is inextricable
from the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. The situation in Libya is not much better — the United States helped overthrow Muammar al-
Qaddafi in 2011, but violence still rages. The Islamic State, which originated in Iraq, has now established a presence in Libya as well, provoking
still more U.S. military action there. It is clear that those interventions were counterproductive and have failed to make
America safer and more secure, yet primacists call for more of the same .
Lastly, primacists contend that U.S. military power is essential to the functioning of the global economy. “U.S. security
commitments,” explain leading primacists Stephen G. Brooks, G. John Ikenberry, and William C. Wohlforth, “help maintain an open world
economy and give Washington leverage in economic negotiations.” The United States sets the rules of the game and punishes those who disobey
them. If the United States were less inclined to intervene in other people’s disputes, the primacists say, the risk of war would
grow, roiling skittish markets. But such claims exaggerate the role that U.S. ground forces play in facilitating global
trade, especially given the resiliency and flexibility of global markets in the face of regional instability. Moreover,
primacists ignore the extent to which past U.S. military activism has actually undermined market stability and upset vital regions. Smart
alternatives to primacy feature a significant role for the U.S. Navy and Air Force in providing security in the global
commons while avoiding the downsides of onshore activism.
In conclusion, America’s default foreign policy is unnecessarily costly and unnecessarily risky . Its defenders
misconstrue the extent to which U.S. military power has contributed to a relatively peaceful international system , and
they overestimate our ability to sustain an active global military posture indefinitely .
The United States needs an alternative foreign policy, one that focuses on preserving America’s strength and advancing its security, and that
expects other countries to take primary responsibility for protecting their security and preserving their interests. America’s leaders should restrain
their impulse to use the U.S. military when our vital interests are not directly threatened while avoiding being drawn into distant conflicts that sap
our strength and undermine our safety and values.
2AC---AT: Degrowth Bad/Innovation
Err neg---planetary boundaries are already being crossed and decoupling is impossible
Riccardo Mastini 18, PhD student in ecological economics and political ecology in the Institute of Environmental
Science and Technology at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, 6/1/18, “Work in a World Without Growth,”
https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/work-in-a-world-without-growth/
A fixation with growth in economics has seen GDP increase in proportion to environmental damage . As planetary
limits draw ever closer and are even being surpassed, such a model cannot be sustained . Riccardo Mastini explains how a
job guarantee could open up the way to a sustainable economic model.
Since the dawn of capitalism, market economies have placed a high emphasis on labour productivity. Continuous
improvements in technology geared towards productivity increases lead to more output being produced for a given
amount of labour. But crucially these advances also mean that fewer people are needed to produce the same amount of goods and services
each year. As long as the economy expands fast enough to offset increases in labour productivity there is no problem. But if the economy does
not grow, people lose their jobs.
Economic growth has been necessary within this system just to prevent mass unemployment. Communities and the politicians that represent
them celebrate the construction of a new factory not so much for the increase in supply of some needed product, but because of the jobs it creates.
In advanced economies, the shortage of employment has become more pressing than the shortage of products. Basically, we produce goods and
services mostly to keep people employed rather than to cater for their needs.
But what if economic growth were to slow down and, eventually, come to a halt in the near future? More than half a
century of ‘growth propaganda’ supporting the dogma that pursuing never-ending growth is plausible and desirable
may make this new prospect shocking for some. However, there is now overwhelming evidence that decoupling
GDP growth from increases in natural resource and energy use is impossible . And our plundering of Earth’s bounty
has already reached unsustainable levels with the overshot of several planetary boundaries.
It is, therefore, time for a bold public debate about whether it is desirable to continue our relentless pursuit of
economic growth, with the associated dire consequences for the health of the planet, simply to keep people employed.
Adopting an economic policy proposal known as the job guarantee could ensure full employment while our society transitions towards an
economy that no longer grows. All this, without sacrificing the goods and services needed for just and sustainable prosperity.
The need for planned economic degrowth
The idea of ‘degrowth’ takes aim at the irreconcilable contradiction between the growth imperative of capitalism and
sustainability on a finite planet. Degrowth is defined as an equitable downscaling of production and consumption
that will reduce society’s extraction of energy and raw materials and generation of waste . More broadly, degrowth
means the abolition of economic growth as a social objective . Instead, degrowth implies a new direction for society, one in which
we live and work differently from today by giving priority to a sustainable level of wellbeing for all citizens rather than to maximising wealth.
Transition now is better---diminishing tech returns mean society has already entered
“involuntary degrowth”
Mauro Bonaiuti 18, professor of ecological economics at the University of Turin, October 2018, “Are we
entering the age of involuntary degrowth? Promethean technologies and declining returns of innovation,” Journal of
Cleaner production, Volume 197, Part 2, p. 1807-1808
In the last few years the economic slowdown has been noted even by standard economists who have started to speak
openly of “ secular stagnation ”20. The basic idea is that, after the financial crisis, despite years of zero interest rate there
are no signs of a satisfying recovery of the global economy. Recognising, as did Larry Summers, 2014, Summers, 2015 and Paul
Krugman (2014), that what we are experiencing is something quite different from an ordinary crisis , it is an important
step that in some way legitimize the debate on post-growth society. However, the discussion on secular stagnation is rooted in
standard macroeconomic theory. Even if from different perspectives, all these authors21 advocate economic interventions aimed at stimulating a
return to growth. Above all these analyses do not offer any indication of the length or magnitude of future cycles of
innovation. As Georgescu-Roegen has already pointed out (Georgescu-Roegen, 1971, Georgescu-Roegen, 2011) standard economics
lacks an evolutionary theory and, consequently does not even take into consideration the possible irreversible
changes in the system (as degrowth supporters do). From this perspective the bioeconomic approach seems more
promising: it does not only ascertain the slowing down of innovation processes, but offers an explanation of it,
making it part of a more general hypothesis on the evolutionary trend of the system (the Great Wave), open to various
possible future scenarios.
7. Conclusions
The concept of Promethean Technologies is one of Georgescu-Roegen’s fundamental contributions to bioeconomic theory. It reveals how the
process of innovation is not only the outcome of small incremental variations but is also the result of discontinuous,
epoch-making innovation. Since greater complexity requires more accessible energy , Promethean technologies are the
only ones capable of producing a leap in the scale of complexity of human societies.
Tainter’s principle of Diminishing Marginal Returns, on the other hand, offers a basic understanding of societal dynamics as a consequence of
increasing complexity. Increasing complexity leads, in fact, to diminishing returns . By integrating G-R’s bio-economic view with
Tainter’s principle of diminishing returns, the author has formulated the hypothesis that, after the Promethean/Industrial Revolution returns on
investment in complexity follow a “Great Wave” trend.
The second part of the paper offers an initial enquiry into the Great Wave hypothesis, using Total Factor Productivity as an indicator of returns
on innovation. The analysis of data shows that the period after the Industrial Revolution can be divided into three large cycles (IR1, IR2, IR3),
and that each cycle presents a S-shaped trend, albeit of a different magnitude and duration.
In the US the application of coal/steam-engine/telegraph technology stimulated a rapid increase in productivity, reaching a peak between 1869
and 1892 (at almost 2%). Yet it was to be the great innovations of the second industrial revolution (the electric engine and the internal
combustion engine) with their momentous potential both for manufacturing and domestic consumption (electric light, indoor plumbing) that took
TFP values to their peak (2.78%) and, more than that, kept them high (at around 2%) for at least another 25 years, thanks in particular to
innovations in the transport system. However, after the peak in the 1930s productivity decreased until it reached a modest 0.34% in the period
1973–95. Although the use of computers and ICT has led to a significant revival of productivity, both the empirical
evidence and theoretical reasons lead one to conclude that the innovations introduced by IR3 are not powerful
enough to compensate for the declining returns of IR2.
This of course does not exclude the possibility that a new expansive cycle may follow the decline of IR3. What the Great Wave hypothesis
suggests, however, is that - without the intervention of a new Promethean technology - it is likely to be less influential, and briefer, than the
previous one: a conclusion that it would be impossible to draw by applying the instruments of standard macroeconomic theory (Summers, 2014,
Summers, 2015, Krugman, 2014; but also Gordon, 2015). This is the reason for emphasis having been placed here on a few bio-economic
concepts and on complex system theory.
In short, an analysis of TFP data for the three cycles after the Industrial Revolution seems to be consistent with the hypothesis of a Great Wave.
This means that the U.S. economy seems to have reached its first threshold of mutation - and hence entered a phase
of diminishing returns on innovation -in the thirties. This conclusion, moreover, thus appears to be consistent with evidence from
research in other fields, i.e. energy (Hall et al., 2008), mineral resources (Bardi, 2014), agriculture (Coelli and Prasada Rao, 2005), health,
education and scientific research, (Tainter, 2006, Strumsky et al., 2010), demonstrating that advanced capitalist societies (the U.S., Europe
and Japan) have
entered a phase of declining marginal returns or involuntary degrowth in many key sectors (Bonaiuti,
2014), with
possible major detrimental effects on the system’s capacity to maintain its present institutional
framework.
Even if growth solves some crises, innovation creates new ones---better to transition
Giorgos Kallis 17, ICREA Research Professor at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, environmental scientist
working on ecological economics and political ecology, formerly Marie Curie International Fellow at the Energy
and Resources Group of the University of California at Berkeley, PhD in Environmental Policy and Planning from
the University of the Aegean in Greece, 4/10/17, “Economics Without Growth,” in Another Economy is Possible:
Culture and Economy in a Time of Crisis, no page #
The economy is material (Georgescu-Roegen 1971)
Economic activity – production, exchange, or consumption – does
not take place in a vacuum. It extracts and transforms
inputs – energy and raw materials – and it produces undesirable outputs, such as waste or air emissions. Each society,
like each organism, has a “metabolism,” a pattern of material and energy throughput (Fischer-Kowalski 1997; Giampietro 2003). There is nothing
immaterial in information services, such as a social networking site like Facebook. These embed vast quantities of materials and energy [what
Odum (2002) called “emergy,” embodied energy]: raw materials used for computers; energy used to power servers; or food, materials, and
energy used to raise, educate, and move around the Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. The “immaterial” economy embodies a very material economy.
The economic process increases entropy as it converts high order matter and energy into low order energy
(Georgescu-Roegen 1971). For Georgescu-Roegen, the entropic death of life on the planet is the ultimate physical limit ; a
transition from exhaustive fossil fuels, which once used are turned into high-entropy energy irreversibly, to “renewable” solar
power, which will slow down the pace toward this entropic end . However, the presence or not of ultimate entropic limits has
been disputed; and even if there are such limits, they probably operate in time horizons of millions of years, making them
irrelevant for current generations. Nonetheless, specific stocks, such as oil or phosphorus upon which modern industry
or agriculture depend, may be exhausted. This is a matter of specific, not ultimate limits .
A preferable conceptualization of the relationship between society and resources is that of co-evolution. Resources such as fossil fuels, or
ecosystems such as the atmosphere, condition what societies can or cannot do in any given moment. Societies refashion such “limits”;
industrialized agriculture overcame the limits of land productivity and oil substituted coal. In the process new limits
and conditions were produced, such as soil pollution , erosion, exhaustion of phosphorus for fertilizers, or climate
change . The “responses” to such limits, such as the development of nuclear power, tar sands, or GMOs, may increase the
wellbeing of some (typically a few) at the expense of many others. It is more apt to think of the economy and social activity not as
ultimately limited in an absolute sense by a surrounding planetary ecosystem (Daly 1997), but in a constant co-evolutionary relationship, whereby
societies transform ecosystems, for better or for worse, and then have to adapt to their own transformations (Benton 1992; Kallis and Norgaard
2010).
Georgescu-Roegen’s insight remains important insofar as the economic process creates negentropic order in some places, by increasing entropy
elsewhere. Climate change is the result of the entropic shift of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Increasing carbon
emissions and concentrations in the atmosphere destabilize the climate with disastrous consequences , which will
strongly determine future co-evolution. If all currently available fossil fuels were to be extracted, temperature on the planet
would increase by 15 °C. To stay within what scientists claim as the safe operating zone of 2 ° C change, by 2050
the global economy would have to become 130 times more efficient in its use of carbon if it were to grow at the
same pace; in comparison from 1980 to 2007, efficiency improved by a mere 23 percent (Jackson 2011). Rich countries
should start cutting their emissions by 8– 10 percent per year (Anderson and Bows-Larkin 2013), when the best they have
achieved are 1 percent reductions, and this during recessions. A reduction of economic activity, in Georgescu-Roegen’s
terms a slowing down of the entropic economic process, seems unavoidable , either voluntarily by planned degrowth or involuntarily by a
disastrous change of the climate.
Another important insight of the material, or metabolic view, is that the production of energy and resources uses energy and
resources itself. To drill oil, one spends energy; to extract uranium and silicon, and build and operate nuclear or solar
power plants, also. The period of high growth has been associated with high energy productivity (or high energy surpluses) from oil and coal.
It is not clear how cleaner renewable energies, with lower e nergy r eturn o n energy i nvestment, will sustain high
growth rates or an economy of the present scale. While a short-term Keynesian perspective can suggest that public investment in
green infrastructures and renewable energy can be expansionary, in the long term this is unlikely to be the case, since one in effect is substituting
energy sources of high productivity for sources with low productivity. Labor can substitute energy, but this is the inverse of the growth process.
In conclusion, it is unlikely to have a “green growth.”
2AC---Sustainabilty/AT: Renewables
Degrowth is key---only way to avoid total societal collapse
Federico Demaria 18, Ph.D. in Environmental Science and Technology from Autonomous University of
Barcelona, researcher in ecological economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, 2/22/18, “Why
economic growth is not compatible with environmental sustainability,” https://theecologist.org/2018/feb/22/why-
economic-growth-not-compatible-environmental-sustainability
'Growth for the sake of growth' remains the credo of all governments and international institutions, including the European Commission.
Economic growth is presented as the panacea that can solve any of the world's problems: poverty, inequality,
sustainability, you name it. Left-wing and right-wing policies only differ on how to achieve it.
However, there is an uncomfortable scientific truth that has to be faced: economic growth is environmentally
unsustainable . Moreover, beyond a certain threshold already surpassed by EU countries, socially it isn't necessary. The central
question then becomes: how can we manage an economy without growth?
Enough is enough
Kenneth Boulding, the economist, famously said that: “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a
finite world is either a madman or an economist”.
Ecological economists argue that the economy is physical, while mainstream economists seem to believe it is
metaphysical.
Social metabolism is the study of material and energy flows within the economy. On the input side of the economy, key material resources
are limited, and many are peaking including oil and phosphorus. On the output side, humanity is trespassing planetary
boundaries .
Climate change is the evidence of the limited assimilative capacity of ecosystems . It is the planet saying: 'Enough is
enough!'.
Mainstream economists - finally convinced by the existence of biophysical limits - have started to argue that economic growth
can be decoupled from the consumption of energy and materials.
Trade off
Historical data series demonstrates that this - up to now - has not happened. At most, there is relative decoupling - a
decrease in resource use per unit of GDP. But, there is no absolute decoupling which is what matters for sustainability : an
absolute decrease of environmental resources consumption.
The only periods of absolute dematerialisation coincide with economic recession . Trade should also be taken into
account, to avoid externalisation of pollution intensive activities outside the EU.
The current economy cannot be circular. The main reason being that energy cannot be recycled , and materials only up to
a point. The global economy recycles less than 10 percent of materials; about 50 percent of processed materials are used to
provide energy and are thus not available for recycling. It is simple: economic growth is not compatible with environmental
sustainability.
The list of nice oxymorons is long - from sustainable development to its reincarnations like green economy or green
growth - but wishful thinking does not solve real problems . Increase in GDP leads to increase in material and energy
use, and therefore to environmental unsustainability.
No magic bullet
Technology and market based solutions are not magic bullets . Faith in technology has become religious: scientific
evidence shows that, based on past trends in technological improvement, these are coming way too slowly to avoid
irreversible climate change .
For instance, efficiency improvements lead to rebound effects , in the context of economic growth (the more efficient
you are, the more you consume; e.g. cars and consumption of gasoline). Renewable energy produces less net energy ,
because it has a lower EROI (Energy Return on Investement) than fossil fuels. For this, and other reasons, it cannot satisfy
current levels of energy consumption , which therefore needs to be reduced.
Most of the world’s fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground, unburned, to keep a global temperature rise to no
more than 2°C. In fact, fossil fuels should be called unburnable fuels.
Science sometimes brings bad news. An article recently published in Nature Sustainability argues that: “No country in the world meets the basic
needs of its citizens at a globally sustainable level of resource use.” The question then is: How can the conditions for a good life for all within
planetary boundaries be generated?
The uncomfortable truth to be faced by policy makers is the following: Economic growth is ecologically
unsustainable. The total consumption of materials and energy needs to be reduced, starting with developed countries.
De-growth strategy
Economic growth might also not be socially desirable. Inequalities are on the rise, poverty has not been eliminated
and life satisfaction is stagnant.
Economic growth is fueled by debt , which corresponds to a colonization of the future. This debt cannot be paid, and
the financial system is prone to instability .
For instance, scientifically it is not clear how the European Union will achieve a low-carbon economy in the context of economic growth, since it
implies a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
In fact, climatologists Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows have argued convincingly that: “ [F]or a reasonable probability of avoiding the
2°C characterization of dangerous climate change , the wealthier nations need, temporarily, to adopt a de-growth
strategy.”
Obviously, a transition from a growth society to a degrowth one poses several challenges. However, the emerging field of ecological
macroeconomics is starting to address them convincingly.
Happiness factor
Happiness and economics literature shows that GDP growth is not needed for well-being, because there are other
important determinants. High life expectancy is compatible with low carbon emissions , but high incomes are not.
Moreover, lack of growth may increase inequalities unless there is redistribution.
In any case, the issue is not whether we shall abandon economic growth. The question is how . Scientific debates around it
are on the rise, but I am afraid policy making is behind.
There are good signs: critiques of GDP as an indicator of well-being are common, there are policy proposals and degrowth is entering into the
parliaments. This is not new. For example, in 1972 Sicco Mansholt, a Dutch social-democrat who was then EU Commissioner for agriculture,
wrote a letter to the President of the EU Commission Franco Maria Malfatti, urging him to seriously take into account limits to growth in EU
economic policy.
Mansholt himself became President of the European Commission after only two months, but for too short a term to push a zero growth agenda.
The time is ripe not only for a scientific degrowth research agenda, but also for a political one. As ecological economists Tim Jackson and Peter
Victor argued in The New York Times: “Imagining a world without growth is among the most vital and urgent tasks for
society to engage in.”
AT: Resources Infinite
<All the sustainability cards answer this>
Returns on investment are declining across industries---that causes irreversible shortages
in fuels, ores, ammonia, steel, and more
Samuel Alexander 18, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Melbourne School of Design, University of
Melbourne, “A Critique of the Australian National Outlook Decoupling Strategy: A ‘Limits to Growth’
Perspective,” Ecological Economics, Volume 145, 2018, pp. 10-17
There are several reasons why efficiency gains, in the real world, are likely to be far less than the factor-five literature suggests.
First, optimistic claims tend to overlook the implications of ongoing depletion of non-renewable resources . As the most
easily accessible resource deposits are produced first, later deposits tend to require increasing time, energy and money to
discover and extract. With respect to fossil fuels, this trend is reflected in the declining energy return on energy invested
(EROI). Between 1995 and 2006 the global average EROI for oil and gas declined from an estimated 30:1 to 18:1 (Hall et al., 2014), with
average EROI of US oil production falling to 11:1 (Murphy, 2013). Further decline in EROI is expected in coming decades, given
the increasing reliance of the global economy on non-conventional, lower EROI, sources of oil and gas supply (Hall et
al., 2014).12 The impact of depletion is also evident in the mining sector with declining mineral ore grades and
increasing mining waste rock and tailings evident, both in Australia and globally, resulting in higher energy, water and
emission costs for mining and ore separation (Mudd, 2009; Diederen, 2009).13 This means that even if there are efficiency gains in, say,
manufacturing processes, to some extent they will be counteracted by efficiency declines in resource extraction. This
situation evokes the challenge faced by the Red Queen in Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, who has to run faster and faster simply to
stay in the same place (Likvern, 2012).
Second, enthusiastic efficiency claims about technology often attend only to the gross reductions, not the net
reductions, which are often far less . Von Weizsacker et al. (2009) cite a case study claiming factor-five reductions in the ecological
footprint of an Australian house, but it is not clear that embodied energy in both building and heating and cooling materials
has been adequately accounted for. A recent Australian study using hybrid life cycle assessment for estimating embodied energy found
that the additional materials required for heating and cooling often ‘require more embodied energy than the operational costs they save’
(Crawford et al., 2016: 449). Another example pertinent to Stretch is CCS
technology which has potentially very large fuel and
capital costs making it a potentially large source of future inefficiency (Supekar and Skerlos, 2015).
Third, optimistic efficiency projections sometimes fail to factor in the likelihood of diminishing returns over time. Ayres
and Warr (2009) note that for many decades there have been plateaus for the production efficiency of electricity and
fuels , electric motors , ammonia , iron and steel . While large increases are no doubt possible in certain areas, this does not imply that
rapid, large and continuous technical gains can easily be made across all sectors of the economy.
Consumption increases and resource depletions are occurring across the globe---true for all
economies and all materials
Giorgos Kallis 17, ICREA Professor, ICTA, Autonomous University of Barcelona, “Radical dematerialization and
degrowth,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Volume 375, Issue 2095, June 13, 2017, 20160383
Some authors see signs of a forthcoming dematerialization. Recent data show stagnation of material consumption in some Western
economies such as the UK [28]. Could this be a point of ‘peak stuff’, a natural peaking of material consumption as economies reach a
mature stage, after which material use declines? ([29], see also [30]). If that were the case, growth and dematerialization would be compatible, at
least in the long-run after developing countries had developed sufficiently to reach their ‘peak-stuff’.
As Gutowski et al. [30], however note, data on domestic material consumption does not account for the material embedded
in imported consumer goods . The true material use of a national economy does not include only the raw materials that it
extracts, imports or consumes within its borders. It includes also the materials embedded in the finished goods or services that it
imports. The material footprint of developed nations, that is the total amount of materials used to produce the goods and services that
they consume, increases hand in hand with the size of their economies (figure 2). There is no sign of peak-stuff if one
looks at material footprint instead of domestic material consumption (the actual materials consumed, plus imports minis
exports). Despite substantial deindustrialization and de-agrarianization, the material demands of the so-called ‘service economies’
continue to grow .
Take California: the information sector accounts for 8% of the total state product, 21% together with business and professional services that
include computer systems and design [31]. Agriculture's share of the economy is down to 2%. Yet, the state's water footprint grew almost 40%
from 1992 to 2010 [21].
Research on individual metals confirms a similar story to that of aggregated material flows. The Jevons' paradox is
confirmed for 57 different materials for all of which there is no evidence of dematerialization. Increases in consumption
and production outpace savings from technological improvements [32]. And at the sites where metals are extracted, conflicts intensify because of
the negative environmental and social consequences of extraction [33].
The separation in the trends of domestic material consumption and material footprint in high-income economies is not evidence that they are
doing something better. It is a by-product of the globalization of the economy. Industrializing economies produce the consumer goods of service
economies [30]. (The idea that one day all economies could graduate to be service economies with saturated material consumption raises the
question who would produce then their industrial goods?) This is a systemic pattern, revealed at the global scale , the only
appropriate scale to study a globalized economy with a global division of labour. At this scale, the prediction of EE is confirmed: material
extraction and consumption grow as the economy grows.
Cross-country comparisons confirm the same picture. A GDP growth (degrowth) of 1% leads to a 0.6% growth (degrowth) of material footprint
[22]. Same for carbon: a 1% increase (decrease) in GDP leads to about 0.5–0.7% increase (decrease) in carbon emissions [34]. These are
strong, statistically significant effects, as significant as one can hope to find in econometrics. One may well claim that the
causal relationship between GDP and resource use will finally change in the future with structural changes in the economy, or the advent of new
materials and technologies. But on this basis, no econometric study could ever be a basis for policy since we can always hope that with sufficient
will we can change established causal relations.
AT: Tech---Renewables
Renewables can’t replace fossil fuels and consumption will always outstrip them
Harold Wilhite 16, Research Director at the University of Oslo’s Centre for Development and Environment and
Academic Director of a program entitled Environmental Change and Sustainable Energy, The Political Economy of
Low Carbon Transformation: Breaking the habits of capitalism, 2016, no page numbers
'Green energy' programmes in the rich and 'emerging' countries of the world conform largely to the principles of green
economy and ecological modernization. They base themselves on a two-pronged strategy for reducing energy consumption
and decarbonizing energy production: 1) a transformation of production from fossil fuel-based to renewable-based energy
sources and 2) a reduction in the energy intensity of the economy through increased economic and technical efficiency. More weight
has been given to the development of renewable energies in part because a change in energy production can be seamlessly incorporated into an
economic growth strategy. This has been understood very well by China. It has made massive investments in developing, producing and
marketing both solar energy and wind energy (Knutsen and Ou 2015). However, early predictions about falling prices for solar
energy production have proven overly optimistic (see Guardian 2015), and high costs as well as other issues such as the
pollution associated with battery and solar cell production , as well as difficulties with energy storage and producing
electricity at scale are slowing the transition to solar. Recent reports of the International Energy Agency (IEA, an arm of the OECD)
have predicted a slow integration of renewable energies into production portfolios over the next century and that renewable substitution
will not make a significant difference to the aggregate global carbon emissions over the next half century. As I write in
Wilhite (2012: 85), another major hindrance to the development of renewable energies is 'competition with coal-based energy production: coal
production technologies are mature, coal reserves are plentiful and production is cheap compared to the alternatives'.
Furthermore, the coal industry is provided with heavy government subsidies. According to Mason (2015), USD 544 billion are spent each year on
fossil fuel subsidies. Referring to the IEA (2013) report on the progress towards reducing C02 emissions, Geels (2014: 36) writes that 'Despite
climate change debates and policies, coal's relative contribution to electricity generation expanded from 39 per cent in 2000
to 42 per cent in 2010. Renewable electricity sources have so far been mainly additional (original emphasis) to fossil fuels
with no (or limited) substitution effects'. Adding reserves of oil and gas to those of coal, it is estimated that there are 2.8 trillion tons of carbon
reserves globally and both exploration for new reserves and production of oil from tar sands, fracking and deep sea oil deposits continues at a
high tempo. In 2011, global investments in fossil fuel exploration and development was USD 674 billion (Mason 2015).
If one accounts for the slow transition to renewable energy production over the next century, as well as the post-
Fukushima scepticism to nuclear energy , the implication is that a rapid reduction in carbon emissions will not happen
without an absolute reduction in energy consumption in all sectors of the economy , including the residential sector, which
continues to be the fastest growing energy-using sector globally. This is where the theories that inform green policy are at their weakest,
ignoring the high energy habits that have formed in transport, heating, cooling, cleaning, food and other household
practices. The policy emphasis remains rigidly tied to reducing energy use through the promotion of technical and economic efficiency. The
theory that efficiency alone can reduce energy in a growth economy is, in the words of Wilhite and Norgard (2004) a 'delusion'
in energy policy, or as formulated by Bluhdorn (2007: 80), an exercise in 'energy metaphysics' . Energy use is the product of intensity
(the inverse of efficiency) and volume, but the latter is ignored in green energy policy. The delusion is evident in the historical record
of efforts to reduce (or conserve) energy in the OECD countries. Over the 40 years from the birth of energy conservation, economic
growth has outstripped energy efficiency, the result being small decreases in energy use for the OECD as a whole from very high
starting points relative to the remainder of the world.
AT: CCS---General
CCS can’t be scaled up and exaggerates warming
Samuel Alexander 18, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Melbourne School of Design, University of
Melbourne, “A Critique of the Australian National Outlook Decoupling Strategy: A ‘Limits to Growth’
Perspective,” Ecological Economics, Volume 145, 2018, pp. 10-17
The ANO Report also places great faith in carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) as a means of extensively reducing carbon
emissions. The technology is obviously attractive, in theory, because it holds out the hope of prolonging the consumption of coal
and gas in power stations – while capturing most of the emissions – and therefore delaying the need for a transition to 100% renewable
energy. There is, however, no discussion of the many unresolved problems with the technology. And even if it proves
technically feasible at scale, future CCS costs are subject to such great uncertainty that it is impossible , at this stage, to
assess economic feasibility in any definitive way .
The report does acknowledge that despite two decades of research and pilot projects, CCS has ‘not yet been demonstrated at
commercial scale’11 (Hatfield-Dodds et al., 2015b: 50). This is not just with respect to the capturing of carbon from power
plants, but also transportation via pipelines and storage in permanently safe geological sites (Scott et al., 2015; Hamilton,
2016). To date, most storage pilot projects have been abandoned because they ran into technical problems and cost
blowouts (Hamilton, 2016). And yet, despite the lack of progress to date, the Stretch scenario assumes CCS compatible coal and gas provides
50% of both Australian and global electricity by 2050. At the global level this requires about 2500 GW of CCS electricity generation, which
seems highly optimistic (Hatfield-Dodds et al., 2015b: 54). By comparison, the IEA's's (2008) most ambitious CCS implementation target, known
as the BLUE map scenario, assumes about 1500 GW of CCS compatible power generation by 2050 (IEA, 2008: 69).
In addition, heavy reliance on CCS could still result in a significant release of C02 emissions, exacerbating global
warming . Lenzen (2011) reviews estimates of life-cycle carbon emissions for CCS applied to coal and gas power plants and finds a realistic
capture rate of 80% emissions across all CCS applications (i.e. capture, transport, injection etc.). He points out that these estimates
have
typically not factored in the possible contribution of carbon leakage from geological storage sites. He shows that to safely
capture 1500 GtCO2 – which is close to the estimated global storage capacity – requires a CO2 leakage rate no higher than 0.01% per year. Such
a low leakage rate, however, is far from certain. He notes (Lenzen, 2011: 2171) that several studies (i.e. Pehnt and Henkel, 2009) have
‘emphasised the lack of knowledge and experience of underground storage and have concluded that there is no
guarantee for the low leakage rate .’ If the rate of leakage turns out to be significantly higher – i.e. between 0.1% and 1% per annum –
the additional long-term warming effect from CCS alone would be between 0.15 °C and 0.5 °C.
Sequestering carbon fails---can’t be scaled up fast enough
Dr Colin Pritchard 14, Senior Research Fellow in the School of Engineering at the University of Edinburgh, Dr
Aidong Yang, Associate Professor in the Department of Engineering Science at Oxford, P. Holmes, M. Wilkinson,
25 June 2014, “Thermodynamics, economics and systems thinking: What role for air capture of CO2?” Process
Safety and Environmental Protection, ScienceDirect
As a means of reducing absolute atmospheric CO2 levels, each 1 ppm reduction requires the removal of ca. 7 Gt CO2 (neglecting any continuing
accumulation of emissions). At 400 ppm concentration, this requires processing at the very least 12,000 Gt of air. Fugitive CO2 emissions equate to about 55% of total emissions or about 18
Gt/year. Of this, about 4 Gt/year is from transport ( IEA, 2012). Targeting transport emissions alone via DAC requires processing almost 6500 Gt/year of air. Capture of these
emissions would have to be done continuously and would require an infrastructure which is likely to be 300 times
larger than that to treat current global annual point source emissions, if the size of the infrastructure is proportional to the volume of the processed air/gas.
In practice the required scales of operation may need to be much higher , because the later we start, the higher will be the peak and the more CO2
will have to be removed to stabilise at a particular target atmospheric concentration (discounting climate tipping points which may have been reached in the meantime). At projected
rates of growth in emissions, reductions of 20–30 Gt/year have been forecast to be necessary beyond 2030, and these are far above the
capacity which could be conceived as practical for air capture . This timescale for development and deployment also
appears to be unrealistically short : comparable to the most optimistic estimates for deployment of point source CCS – a mature technology – at scale.
In a wide-ranging discussion of NETs, McGlashan et al. (2012) point out that “ The scale of development for these (emissions-reduction) technologies
required for them to have material impacts on atmospheric levels of CO2 to be significant would, in many cases, result in the
need for the development of supply chains in less than 20 years from an extremely low level or from scratch , to the scale of
many of the largest industries in existence today which have developed over centuries . This strongly implies that mitigation must still
remain the main near-term effort in terms of addressing climate change. Negative emissions technologies can be seen as an economically rational tool to augment mitigation
efforts and prevent emissions trajectories overshoot within a portfolio of emissions measures, but they should not be used as an excuse for delaying effective
expectation that air capture or similar technologies can be achieved reduces the incentive to invest in mitigation. Yet, while air
capture removes irreversibility in the increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, it does not protect against
irreversibilities in the climate system's response to forcing.” They also demonstrate that “It is optimal to pollute more when it is possible to cleanup afterward than when it is
not.”
The suggestion that low emission countries be involved in mitigation assumes that, with a world-wide carbon trading system in place, countries could earn credits by absorbing other countries’ carbon emissions via air capture. This
would only make economic sense if all of the cheaper methods for carbon capture had already been deployed in the emitting countries!
The ideathat DAC can provide an excuse for delaying more direct mitigation efforts is particularly corrosive ; and this paper finds no evidence to justify
could further lead to an irrecoverable situation as we approach “irreversibilities in the climate system's response to
such a stance, which
forcing”.
From a public perspective, there is a danger that championing of air capture (if conducted without informing the public of the techno-economic issues such as those outlined in this paper), may lead to a
perception that “the climate problem is sorted“, and thereby diminish the incentive to take ( much) more realistic
measures such as energy efficiency/conservation, and CCS, and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and decarbonisation of electricity supply, and even the decarbonisation of transport. This is of course a danger faced by all
technological approaches to CO2 reduction.
CCS tech takes so much energy that it offsets its own climate benefits
Jennie C. Stephens 14, is the Blittersdorf Professor of Sustainability Science and Policy at the University of
Vermont's Rubenstein School of Environment. March 2014, “Time to stop investing in carbon capture and storage
and reduce government subsidies of fossil-fuels” http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.266/pdf
The amount of energy required to capture and store CO2 is often not adequately recognized in optimistic perceptions
of the potential of CCS. This so-called energy penalty has been estimated to be about 30% with a range from 11 to 40%.20 This
means roughly that for every three coal-fired power plants utilizing CCS an additional power plant would be
required simply to supply the energy needed to capture and store the CO2. The magnitude of this energy penalty
(including even the lower estimates) is so high that it is difficult to imagine a future scenario in which consuming
this much additional energy to enable CCS would actually make sense.
Storage is not economically feasible
Kevin Bullis 13, Senior Editor for Energy @ MIT Technology Review, June 17 2013, “What Carbon Capture
Can’t Do,” http://www.technologyreview.com/view/516166/what-carbon-capture-cant-do/
I’ve recently reported on a handful of ways that researchers are trying to lower the cost of capturing carbon dioxide, with the view to storing it
underground or using it for something useful (see “Cheaper Ways to Capture Carbon Dioxide,” “Grasping for Ways to Capture Carbon Dioxide on the Cheap,” and “Fuel Cells Could Offer Cheap Carbon
Dioxide Storage”).
shouldn’t obscure the fact that the potential of carbon capture is limited. Carbon capture and storage
All of these improvements
will never be able to accommodate all of the carbon dioxide we emit now. And quite frankly, carbon capture would have trouble just
keeping up with the increase in coal consumption (see “The Enduring Technology of Coal”).
Capturing and storing carbon dioxide will always make electricity more expensive. It will always be cheaper just to let the carbon dioxide escape into the
atmosphere.
Even if costs are made far lower than they are today, the impact of carbon capture will be limited by the sheer scale of
infrastructure needed to store carbon dioxide. During combustion, each carbon atom from coal combines with two atoms of oxygen from the air, and this creates a huge amount of stuff.
Even once the gas has been compressed into a liquid that can be piped to storage sites, the volume is immense .
Vaclav Smil, a professor at University of Manitoba and master of sobering energy-related numbers, calculates that if we were to bury just one-fifth of the global carbon dioxide emissions,
we would need to build an industry capable of handling twice the volume of stuff as the entire oil industry , an industry that took 100 years to
develop, driven by a large and mostly expanding market.
Impact---Environment/Biodiversity
IL---CBD Update Conference
River rights are key to catalyze global action on environmental protection at the
Convention on Biodiversity update conference
Alessandra Korap Munduruku 21, a Munduruku Indigenous woman leader, won the Robert F. Kennedy Human
Rights Award for her work defending the culture, livelihoods and rights of Indigenous peoples in Brazil; Darryl
Knudsen, the executive director of International Rivers; and Irikefe V. Dafe, lead organizer of the First National
Dialogue on Rights of Nature in Nigeria, founder and CEO of River Ethiope Trust Foundation and an expert
member of the UN Harmony with Nature Initiative, 5/21/21, “Rivers Are Key to Restoring the World’s
Biodiversity,” https://independentmediainstitute.org/rivers-are-key-to-restoring-the-worlds-biodiversity/
In October 2021, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) will meet in China to adopt a new post-2020 global
biodiversity framework to reverse biodiversity loss and its impacts on ecosystems, species and people . The conference
is being held during a moment of great urgency: According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we now have less
than 10 years to halve our greenhouse gas emissions to stave off catastrophic climate change . At the same time, climate
change is exacerbating the accelerating biodiversity crisis. Half of the planet’s species may face extinction by the
end of this century.
And tragically, according to a UN report, “the world has failed to meet a single target to stem the destruction of wildlife and
life-sustaining ecosystems in the last decade.”
It’s time to end that legacy of failure and seize the opportunities before us to correct the past mistakes, manage the present
challenges and meet the future challenges that the environment is likely to face. But if we’re going to protect
biodiversity and simultaneously tackle the climate crisis, we must protect rivers and freshwater ecosystems . And we
must defend the rights of communities whose livelihoods depend on them, and who serve as their stewards and defenders. By doing so, we will
improve food security for the hundreds of millions of people who rely on freshwater ecosystems for sustenance and
livelihoods—and give the world’s estimated 140,000 freshwater species a fighting chance at survival.
Rivers Are Heroes of Biodiversity
At the upcoming CBD, countries are expected to reach an agreement to protect 30 percent of the world’s oceans and
land by 2030. But which land is protected , as part of this agreement, matters immensely . We cannot protect just any
swath of land and consider our work done. Member countries must prioritize protecting regions where biodiversity is
highest, or where restoration will bring the greatest net benefits. Rivers , which support an extraordinary number of species,
must be a priority zone for protection and restoration .
Rivers are unsung heroes of biodiversity: Though freshwater covers less than 1 percent of all the water on the planet’s surface, it
provides habitats for an astonishing number of species. Rivers are vital for conserving and sustaining wetlands,
which house or provide breeding grounds for around 40 percent of Earth’s species . That is a staggering amount of life in a very small
geographic area—and those figures don’t account for all the adjacent forests and other ecosystems, as well as people’s livelihoods that rely on
rivers.
Reversing the Decline of Rivers and Freshwater Ecosystems
Freshwater ecosystems have suffered from some of the most rapid declines in the last four decades . A global study
conducted by the World Wildlife Fund, “Living Planet Report 2020,” states that populations of global freshwater species have
declined by 84 percent, “equivalent to 4 percent per year since 1970.”
That is, by any measure, a catastrophe . Yet mainstream development models, water management policies and conservation and
protected area policies continue to ignore the integrity of freshwater ecosystems and the livelihoods of communities that
depend on them.
As a result of these misguided policies, fisheries that sustain millions of people are collapsing. Freshwater is increasingly
becoming degraded, and riverbank farming is suffering as a result of this. Additionally, we’re seeing Indigenous peoples,
who have long been careful and successful stewards of their lands and waters, face increasing threats to their autonomy and well-
being. The loss of biodiversity, and the attendant degradation of precious freshwater, directly impacts food and water
security and livelihoods.
But thiscatastrophe also suggests that by prioritizing river protection as part of that 30 percent goal , the global
community could slow down and begin to reverse some of the most egregious losses of biodiversity. We have an
incredible opportunity to swiftly reverse significant environmental degradation and support the rebound of myriad
species while bolstering food security for millions of people. But to do that successfully, COP countries must prioritize
rivers and river communities .
Here are a few things countries can do immediately to halt the destruction of biodiversity:
1. Immediately Halt Dam-Building in Protected Areas
Dams remain one of the great threats to a river’s health, and particularly to protected areas. More than 500 dams are currently being planned in
protected areas around the globe, states Yale Environment 360, while referring to a study published in Conservation Letters. In one of the most
egregious examples, Tanzania is moving ahead with plans to construct the Stiegler’s Gorge dam in the Selous Game Reserve—which has been a
UNESCO World Heritage site since 1982 and an iconic refuge for wildlife. In terms of protecting biodiversity, canceling dams like these is low-
hanging fruit if the idea of a “protected area” is to have any meaning at all.
2. Create Development ‘No-Go’ Zones on the World’s Most Biodiverse Rivers
Freshwater ecosystems face myriad threats from extractive industries like mining and petroleum as well as agribusiness and cattle ranching,
overfishing, industrialization of waterways and urban industrial pollution. Investors, financiers, governments and CBD signatories must put an
immediate halt to destructive development in biodiversity hotspots, legally protect the most biodiverse rivers from development, and
decommission the planet’s most lethal dams.
3. Pass Strong Water Protection Policies
Most policymakers and decision-makers—and even some conservation organizations—don’t fully understand how freshwater
ecosystems and the hydrological cycle function, and how intimately tied they are to the health of the terrestrial
ecosystems they want to protect. Rivers and freshwater ecosystems urgently need robust protections, including policies
that permanently protect freshwater and the rights of communities that depend on them. In some places, this may go as
far as granting rivers the rights of personhood . A growing global Rights of Nature and Rights of Rivers movement
is beginning to tackle just this.
4. Respect the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and Other Traditional Communities
Indigenous peoples protect “about 80 percent of the global biodiversity,” according to an article by National Geographic, even though they make
up just 5 percent of the world’s population. These are the world’s frontline defenders of water and biodiversity; we owe them an enormous debt.
More importantly, they deserve protection. It’s imperative governments respect Indigenous people’s territorial rights, as well as their right to self-
determination and free, prior and informed consent regarding projects that affect their waters and livelihoods.
Many Indigenous communities like the Munduruku in the Amazon are fighting to defend their territories, rivers and culture. Threats to fishing
and livelihoods from destructive dams, gold mining pollution and industrial facilities can be constant in the Tapajós River Basin in the Amazon
and many other Indigenous territories.
5. Elevate Women Leaders
In many cultures, women are traditionally the stewards of freshwater, but they are excluded from the decision-making processes. In response,
they have become leaders in movements to protect rivers and freshwater ecosystems around the globe. From the Teesta River in India to the
Brazilian Amazon, women are leading a burgeoning river rights movement. A demand to include women’s voices in policy, governments and
localities will ensure better decisions in governing shared waters.
The pursuit of perpetual unchecked economic growth with little regard for human rights or ecosystem health has led
our planet to a state of crisis . Floods, wildfires, climate refugees and biodiversity collapse are no longer hallmarks
of a distant future: They are here. In this new era, we must abandon rampant economic growth as a metric of success
and instead prioritize equity and well-being.
Free-flowing rivers are a critical safety net that supports our existence . To reverse the biodiversity crisis, we must
follow the lead of Indigenous groups, elevate women’s leadership, grant rights to rivers , radically reduce dam-
building and address other key threats to freshwater. What we agree to do over the next decade will determine our
and the next generations’ fate . We are the natural world. Its destruction is our destruction . The power to halt this destruction lies
in our hands; we only have to use it.
Successful CBD update’s key to global climate momentum and environmental protection
broadly
Tiffany Challe 21, Communications Associate at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law
School; MA in Sustainability Science and Education from the Graduate Center at CUNY, 4/22/21, “THE RIGHTS
OF NATURE — CAN AN ECOSYSTEM BEAR LEGAL RIGHTS?,”
http://blogs.law.columbia.edu/climatechange/2021/04/22/the-rights-of-nature-can-an-ecosystem-bear-legal-rights/
The “Rights of Nature” movement is fundamentally rethinking humanity’s relationship with nature, and it is gaining
momentum. It is led by activists advocating for ecosystems such as rivers, lakes, and mountains to bear legal rights in the
same, or at least a similar, manner as human beings. This movement is striving for a paradigm shift in which nature
is placed at the center and humans are connected to it in an interdependent way, rather than a dominant one. How
would such a legal system work, and could giving rights to nature help in the legal battle against climate change? A few case studies offer some
insight.
What are the “Rights of Nature”?
According to the “Rights of Nature” doctrine, an ecosystem is entitled to legal personhood status and as such, has the right to
defend itself in a court of law against harms, including environmental degradation caused by a specific development
project or even by climate change. The R ights o f N ature law recognizes that an ecosystem has the right to exist,
flourish, regenerate its vital cycles, and naturally evolve without human-caused disruption. Furthermore, when an
ecosystem is declared a “subject of rights,” it has the right to legal representation by a guardian — much like a
charitable trust designates a trustee — who will act on their behalf and in their best interest . This guardian is
typically an individual or a group of individuals well versed in the care and management of said ecosystem.
The goal of conferring rights to nature is to secure the highest level of environmental protection under which an ecosystem
can thrive and whose rights are not violated. These nature rights are very often associated with human rights, especially the right to a
clean and healthy environment.
What countries have declared rights of nature?
Over the last decade, courts, legislatures and various bodies of government in countries around the world have sought and won ecosystem
protection through nature rights.
In 2008, Ecuador became the first country in the world to formally recognize and implement the Rights of Nature, which Ecuadorians refer to as
the Rights of Pachamama (Mother Earth). The constitutional provisions regarding the Rights of Pachamama state: “Nature, or Pachamama, where
life is reproduced and occurs, has the right to integral respect for its existence and for the maintenance and regeneration of its life cycles,
structure, functions and evolutionary processes. All persons, communities, peoples, and nations can call upon public authorities to enforce the
Rights of Nature.”
In 2011, the first lawsuit using the Rights of Nature provision was filed by the Global Alliance for Rights of Nature (GARN) and others against a
construction company for building a road across Ecuador’s Vilcabamba River and dumping rubble into the river. The Provincial Justice Court of
Loja ruled in favor of the river. However, the construction company did not comply with the ruling and the GARN reportedly could not afford to
bring a second suit.
In 2017, four rivers sought and in some instances won legal rights: the Whanganui River in New Zealand, the Rio Altrato in Colombia, and the
Ganga and Yamuna rivers in India. The New Zealand case is fundamentally unique because the Parliament finalized The Te Awa Tupua Act,
appointing two guardians of the river: one representative of the Maori Indigenous people and one representative of the government — the Crown
— arguably reconciling two different worldviews.
In the United States, several cities have asked for an ecosystem to bear legal rights. In 2010, the City Council of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
unanimously passed an ordinance recognizing the Rights of Nature as part of a ban on shale gas drilling and fracking. In 2019, the city of Toledo,
Ohio adopted the Lake Erie Bill of Rights, a municipal law that gave the lake rights of its own. A farmer represented by Drewes Farms
Partnership filed a federal lawsuit claiming the ordinance made his farm vulnerable to “massive liability” when fertilizing its fields “because it
can never guarantee that all runoff will be prevented from entering the Lake Erie watershed.” Soon after, the state of Ohio joined the lawsuit,
arguing it (and not the residents) had the legal responsibility for environmental regulatory programs. In 2020, a federal judge ruled that the Lake
Erie Bill of Rights is “invalid in its entirety” based on the premise that the law itself was “unconstitutionally vague” and exceeded municipal
powers. The plaintiffs are currently trying to keep the Lake Erie Bill of Rights alive in state court.
Most recently, in February 2021, the Innu Council of Ekuanitshit and the Minganie Regional County Municipality recognized the Canadian
Magpie River’s legal rights of personhood through the adoption of twin resolutions — one resolution by the Innu and another resolution by the
municipality. The river bears nine rights and can be legally represented by guardians responsible for ensuring that these rights are respected.
Climate litigation using the rights of nature
Only a few rights of nature cases explicitly relate to climate change, according to the Global Climate Litigation Report: 2020 Status Review by
the United Nations Environment Programme with support from Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Here are five
climate lawsuits from around the world that do implicate the rights of nature and that can be found in the climate change litigation databases
maintained by the Sabin Center and the law firm Arnold Porter Kaye Scholer LLP. The latest case in Pakistan was decided a few days ago, on
April 15.
United States: Colorado River Ecosystem v. State of Colorado. In 2017, an environmental organization filed a lawsuit against the State of
Colorado as “next friends” for and guardians of the Colorado River Ecosystem, seeking declaration that the river is a “person” possessing “rights
to exist, flourish, regenerate, be restored, and naturally evolve,” and that actions of the State of Colorado violated those rights. The complaint
refers to the landmark environmental case, Sierra Club v. Morton (1972), in which a dissenting opinion argued that “environmental objects”
should have standing to sue. The complaint also alleges that climate change is one of the threats faced by the river. The federal district court for
the District of Colorado dismissed the case.
Colombia: Future Generations v. Ministry of the Environment. In 2018, a group of young plaintiffs filed a special constitutional claim called
tutela alleging that their fundamental rights to a healthy environment, life, health, food, and water were threatened by climate change and the
government’s failure to reduce deforestation in the Amazon. The Supreme Court of Colombia recognized that “fundamental rights of life, health,
the minimum subsistence, freedom, and human dignity are substantially linked and determined by the environment and the ecosystem,” and
ordered the government to develop and implement action plans to halt deforestation. It also recognized the Colombian Amazon as a “subject of
rights” in the same manner that the Constitutional Court recognized the Atrato River in Choco, Colombia. The Supreme Court declared that the
Colombia Amazon accordingly was entitled to protection, conservation, maintenance and restoration. The court ordered the government to
develop and implement action plans to address deforestation.
Argentina: Asociación Civil por la Justicia Ambiental v. Province of Entre Ríos, et al. In 2020, the groups Asociación Civil por la Justicia
Ambiental and Foto Ecologista de Paraná, and a class of children, filed a class action suit in the Argentinian Supreme Court against the
governments of the Province of Entre Ríos and the Municipality of Victoria City for their alleged failure to protect environmentally sensitive
wetlands. The plaintiffs asked the court to declare the Paraná Delta a “subject of rights” and an essential ecosystem for mitigating and adapting to
climate change, and to designate a “guardian” of the rights of the Paraná Delta who will be responsible for controlling the conservation and
sustainable use of the wetlands. The complaint references nature rights laws passed in other countries, including Bolivia, New Zealand,
Colombia, Ecuador and India. The case is pending a decision.
Peru: Alvarez et al v. Peru. In 2019, a group of Peruvian youths filed a suit against Peru, alleging that the government has not taken sufficient
action to address climate change. The complaint seeks to order the president, Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation,
the Ministry of Finance, and regional governments to develop action plans to reduce net deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon to zero by 2025.
The complaint also seeks the recognition of the Peruvian Amazon as an entity subject to the rights of protection, conservation, maintenance and
restoration, referencing other nature rights cases in Ecuador, Colombia and New Zealand; and a declaration that the situation of environmental
degradation in the Peruvian Amazon is unconstitutional. The case is pending a decision.
Pakistan: G. Khan Cement Company v. Government of Pakistan. On April 15, 2021, the Supreme Court of Pakistan upheld a decision by the
Provincial Government of Punjab that barred the construction of new or expanded cement plants in environmentally fragile zones. The Supreme
Court recognized that these cement plants could cause further depletion of groundwater, among other harmful environmental impacts. As part of
its consideration, the court emphasized the need for the government to uphold the precautionary principle of protecting the rights to life,
sustainability, and dignity of communities surrounding the project areas. In addition, the court recognized the need to protect the rights of nature
stating that “the environment needs to be protected in its own right” and that “[m]an and his environment each need to compromise for the better
of both and this peaceful co-existence requires that the law treats environmental objects as holders of legal rights.”
How successful are these rights of nature lawsuits?
Granting nature legal standing might arm it against injury under the law, but how does that translate into reality? Legal personhood attributed to
ecosystems has so far been mostly symbolic and it remains unclear how successful these lawsuits can be in gaining adequate, long-term
protection of ecosystems. Outcomes can vary based on how a case is framed and on what the interests of the claimants are. Questions surrounding
these potential outcomes continually arise: What exactly is the party seeking on behalf of the injured entity? Does the party seek to compel an
authority figure to pay for damages incurred? How are these damages measured? Who can be held responsible for these damages? Could the
appointed guardian be held responsible if a river floods and causes damages? Who has a say over a trans-boundary river, such as is the case in
India where the Ganges and Yamuna rivers extend beyond the border of Uttarakhand? If a complaint alleges that climate change is a threat, how
much liability does a specific industry’s activities bear in that respect? (This topic draws on the field of attribution science — see the Climate
Attribution Database, a joint project between the Sabin Center and Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.)
However, a growing number of lawsuits involving the r ights o f n ature might set a precedent for national and local
governments to act on biodiversity conservation by opposing extractive projects that might prove destructive to a
particular ecosystem. The lawsuits also draw attention to environmental justice issues faced by marginalized
communities , particularly Indigenous communities, who are stewards of these vital natural ecosystems and whose
livelihoods and cultural and spiritual practices depend on them.
How do the rights of nature fit in the climate crisis?
Within the context of the climate crisis , the “Rights of Nature” represents one legal theory that can help elevate the
urgency of protecting biodiversity in the fight against climate change .
This year, countries are set to negotiate a global agreement to protect nature under the United Nations C onvention
on B iological D iversity in Kunming, China. A coalition of more than 50 countries, known as the High Ambition Coalition
for Nature and for People, has committed to protecting 30% of the Earth’s land and waters by 2030 in order to curb
biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions — the 30 X 30 target. Can we reach this goal? That remains to be seen.
What is clear is that it’s going to take an array of tools to tackle climate change , and that most certainly includes
conserving our planet’s most biodiverse ecosystems .
Impact---Water---Global Sustainability
Water’s key to all environmental and social resilience---breakdown risks extinction
Johan Rockström 14, professor in environmental science at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm
University, et al., October 2014, “The unfolding water drama in the Anthropocene: towards a resilience-based
perspective on water for global sustainability,” Ecohydrology, Vol. 7, No. 5, p. 1249-1261
Now that Earth has entered the Anthropocene era (Crutzen, 2002; Steffen et al., 2007), in which humanity constitutes a
force of change at the planetary scale, the world faces a new, global level of water concern (Vörösmarty et al., 2013). The
empirical evidence is the exponential growth in global environmental impacts since the mid-1950s, referred to as the great
acceleration (Steffen et al., 2004). We risk pushing the Earth System away from the stable environmental conditions , which
have characterized the Earth during the Holocene period, the interglacial epoch of the past 10 000 years (Oppenheimer, 2004). This epoch is,
as far as we know, the only stable state of the planet that can support the modern world (Steffen et al., 2011b). The
Anthropocene era includes the challenge of providing freshwater for human development (health, food, energy, etc.) to the
more than nine billion people anticipated to be living on the planet in less than 40 years (UN, 2013). Managing this new situation , in
which abrupt, large-scale changes in the biophysical system can no longer be excluded, requires a strong focus on
water for resilience to shocks and increasing stresses, and on the role of water in the functioning and stability of
biophysical, social and economic systems. Resilience refers to the capacity to persist with changing conditions, to have the
ability to continue to develop in the face of change (Folke et al., 2010)
Water is critical to the resilience of landscapes and communities. It is connected to fundamental aspects of the
future survival and prosperity of humankind . All living organisms in the biosphere and the ability of landscapes to
provide ecosystem services depend on the freshwater, both in terms of ‘green’ evapotranspiration water for plant growth and
‘blue’ environmental water flows to sustain ecological habitats. In recent years, the realization that water is the bloodstream of the
biosphere has been an important eye-opener (Ripl, 2003). Water is a prerequisite for human health, food production and the
generation of all other ecosystem services, from biodiversity to temperature regulation .
In response to the deepening understanding of water's fundamental roles in the life-support systems of our planet, water resource thinking has
stepwise broadened in the last few decades (Figure 1) from blue (liquid) water only to green water (infiltrated rain) and finally to a much broader
focus on land–water ecosystem and cross-scale interactions. We argue that the evidence of rising water-related shocks and interactions in the
Anthropocene requires the emergence of a deeper social-ecological resilience-based approach to integrated land and water-resource management,
if we are truly to confront the water challenges facing humanity (Figure 1).
Ecosystem processes modify the hydrological cycle and alterations to the hydrological cycle affect ecosystem processes. These interactions affect
the ability of the biosphere to deliver human wellbeing as well as its capacity to buffer stress and shocks. Interacting changes can cause rapid
shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes, through which many of the ecosystem services generated can unintentionally be lost. Once a
threshold to a new stable state is crossed, it is difficult, if not impossible , to restore the original system functions
(Scheffer et al., 2001).
It is now crucial to develop a better understanding, especially of the role played by water in sustaining the resilience of
the biosphere in support of human development. The need for a new focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between
environment and society has recently been recognized by the hydrological science community (Montanari et al., 2013). This implies a deeper
insight into the fundamental role played by water in sustaining the resilience of the biosphere and the socio-economic and human systems that
form an integral part of it. This paper brings together a set of unsettled ecohydrological and water governance challenges in the Anthropocene.
We’re on the brink of global water tipping points that risk catastrophic impacts
Johan Rockström 14, professor in environmental science at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm
University, et al., October 2014, “The unfolding water drama in the Anthropocene: towards a resilience-based
perspective on water for global sustainability,” Ecohydrology, Vol. 7, No. 5, p. 1249-1261
Indications show that humanity may be pushing exploitation of finite natural resources and the use of the living
biosphere too far , putting at risk the future stability of the Earth system (Steffen et al., 2011a, 2011b), which is tightly
coupled to the regional and global use of freshwater (Meybeck, 2003; Vörösmarty et al., 2004). This may trigger water-
related tipping points with potentially disastrous and long-term implications for human civilization .
To address the new human predicament in the Anthropocene (Steffen et al., 2011a), science has advanced the planetary boundary
framework, which aims at defining the dynamic boundaries for critical Earth System processes beyond which
humanity is at high risk of crossing major tipping points, or fundamentally changing the environmental
preconditions for social and economic development (Rockström et al., 2009c; Rockström et al., 2009b). This provides
humanity with a ‘ safe operating space ’ within which the risk of large-scale abrupt changes is deemed very low. Water use has been
identified as one of the nine planetary boundaries. The Freshwater Boundary is defined as the maximum additional consumptive blue
water use in the world beyond the preindustrial situation, and set at 4000–6000 km3 year−1. Global consumptive use of blue water has been
estimated at 2600 km3 year−1 (Shiklomanov and Rodda, 2003). Several regions already suffer from the widespread impacts of the overuse of
blue water, and global projections indicate an increase in blue water use to a level approaching the global boundary by
2050 (Liu et al., 2009; Rockström et al., 2009a; Gerten et al., 2011).
The global water boundary is defined on the basis of the evidence of the role water plays in providing resilience
through wetness of landscapes, providing water for ecological functions and services, and preventing water scarcity
(Rockström et al., 2014). For example, evidence shows that river basins, with withdrawals exceeding more than 40–60% of available water
resources, experience severe water scarcity (Oki and Kanae, 2006; Grafton et al., 2012). Ongoing research aims at downscaling the
global planetary boundary for water to the local and regional scale, e.g. river basins and watersheds, by applying an
environmental water flow approach (Pastor et al., 2013), where thresholds are defined on the basis of the amount of freshwater that needs to be
maintained in rivers in order to maintain their stability and capacity to deliver key ecological functions. Applying this ‘bottom-up’ approach to
estimate a global water boundary based on local environmental water flow requirements results in a boundary estimate of an average maximum
allowed blue water withdrawal of 2800 km3 year−1, with a large uncertainty range of 1100–4500 km3 year−1 (Gerten et al., 2013).
Rivers should be given legal personhood as delineated natural ecosystems---it’s the best
way to create distinct legal persons to represent natural systems
Stacy Jane Schaefer 18, Associate Director of Land Conservation at the Maryland Department of Natural
Resources, 4/18/18, “The Standing of Nature: The Delineated Natural Ecosystem Proxy,”
https://gwjeel.com/2018/04/18/the-standing-of-nature-the-delineated-natural-ecosystem-proxy/
This is a moving passage that, at the time, could not offer a workable mechanism to identify a proxy for nature’s legal personhood. As Professor
Jonathan Cannon observes in his book, Environment in the Balance, there could be many issues associated with recognizing nature’s ability to
have standing in its own right: “Which things in nature would be represented? Why the River [as in Justice Douglas’ dissent in
Sierra Club] and not the watershed or the ecosystem of which the river is a part? And is the River the exclusive voice of
the ‘ecological unit of life’ that is a part of it, or does each unit have potential standing in its own right?” [60] And as
Professor Hope Babcock points out, “nature lacks any functional structure remotely similar to a corporation.”[61]
This Article’s proposal of the DNE proxy offers a mechanism to produce a nameable and distinct legal entity with
“functional structure” comparable to a corporation. Nature’s DNE proxy in each case is established by virtue of the
location and the effects of the underlying injury; use of science-based classification systems and “operational”
ecosystem definitions enable us to name, delineate and describe a DNE proxy and the injury it faces or has sustained.
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology can then demonstrate, on a single map, a polygon of a DNE proxy
with different layers of information collected from a variety of sources , including remote sensing imagery, cartographic data, as
well as data collected from previous research and surveys, on site assessments, drones, and photographs.[62]
A natural ecosystem is an organization that includes living organisms in a geographic area as well as the physical
environment–all functioning together as a unit . [63] Use of the DNE proxy therefore provides a site-specific
“umbrella” to cover the physical environment, interconnected biodiversity, natural habitats and natural processes
such as water filtration, air purification and soil retention. As such, the DNE proxy inherently represents nature’s
interest in existing, persisting, and maintaining and regenerating its vital cycles in a threatened or injured
geographic area. It is an entity in nature that–through science-based human delineation–becomes nature’s legal person proxy
that fits within the Court’s standing doctrine framework .
Solvency---DNE Mechanism---Feasibility
The DNE proxy mechanism would work just like any other case where lawyers represent
the interests of nonhuman legal constructions
Stacy Jane Schaefer 18, Associate Director of Land Conservation at the Maryland Department of Natural
Resources, 4/18/18, “The Standing of Nature: The Delineated Natural Ecosystem Proxy,”
https://gwjeel.com/2018/04/18/the-standing-of-nature-the-delineated-natural-ecosystem-proxy/
But who files the suit and how will this work in an actual case?
Just as litigation attorneys regularly are hired to represent other juristic persons such as corporations, litigation
attorneys would be hired to represent the DNE proxy . The attorneys need not be scientists themselves because, as
in other litigation contexts, the lawyers can work with one or more qualified expert witnesses. [102] For instance,
an attorney representing an injured person in a medical malpractice case works with one or more qualified medical
expert witnesses to conduct the necessary physical examinations, submit reports to the court, and testify when
necessary.[103] Similarly, the attorney retained to challenge the permits issued to convert a natural forest ecosystem
to a ski resort and highway, as in Sierra Club v. Morton, would work with qualified expert witnesses, such as
biologists and ecologists, to identify and delineate the DNE proxy/proxies and to describe the concrete and
particularized injury facing the DNE(s) that would be proximately caused by the permitted recreational
“development” of the DNE(s)’ forests.[104]
In Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc.,[105] the Supreme Court established a non-exclusive checklist for
trial courts to use in assessing the reliability of scientific expert testimony. The key factors include the following:
whether the expert’s technique or theory can be or has been tested—that is, whether the expert’s theory can be
challenged in some objective sense, or whether it is instead simply a subjective, conclusory approach that cannot
reasonably be assessed for reliability;
whether the technique or theory has been subject to peer review and publication; the known or potential rate of error
of the technique or theory when applied; the existence and maintenance of standards and controls; and
whether the technique or theory has been generally accepted in the scientific community.[106]
The use of a DNE proxy to establish nature’s legal personhood and right to exist and defend itself would be novel.
The underlying information, methods , technology, standards and frameworks, however, are not ;–this work is the
subject of objective, verifiable peer-reviewed publications , and studies and projects that adhere to rigorous
standards and controls .[107] The “novelty” is limited to the context in which this work now could be applied.[108]
Thus, a DNE proxy, seeking to protect itself from direct and imminent injury, could oppose the agency that issued
the permit, as well as the company or companies seeking to build the resort and highway. This action “preserves the
vitality of the adversarial process by assuring both that the parties before the court have an actual, as opposed to
professed, stake in the outcome, and that the legal questions presented . . . will be resolved, not in the rarified
atmosphere of a debating society , but in a concrete factual context conducive to a realistic appreciation of the
consequences of judicial action.”[109] In this instance, Nature’s DNE proxy is fighting for its continued existence
against the permitting government agency and the development company that seek to end the DNE’s existence.
Solvency---Broad Feasibility
Rights for nature are feasible---they require avoiding harm and remedying prior damage---
it’s a filter for all agency decisionmaking on resource use---the full framework’s key to
avoid extinction from environmental decline
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
A final concern is perhaps the most obvious, and seemingly the most challenging to answer even for those most open-minded to nature's claim.
How, in practice, would legal rights in nature be articulated, and what would they entail? 201We might sensibly start
by examining what has already taken place. While some see nature rights as Mission Impossible, others have been making it happen.
The first stab at the architecture of legal rights came in 1984 with the U.N. World Charter for Nature, earlier mentioned. 202A process of
legislation that spanned nine years, three drafts, and the comments of over fifty countries produced a final document announcing bold principles
(number one: "nature shall be respected and its essential processes shall not be impaired"), followed by over thirty "functions" and steps for
implementation. 203Perhaps the most relevant of these were that (1) actions causing "irreversible" damage be avoided; (2) those posing
"significant risk" not proceed until impacts were "fully [*37] understood"; (3) that damaged areas be "restored"; and (4) that nonrenewable
resources (e.g., minerals, the principal source of conflict) be developed compatibly with "the functioning of natural systems" … a nature bottom
line. 204
To be sure, as a Declaration none of this language was enforceable, but its level of detail, its use of the word "shall," and the supporting
statements of its drafters indicates the expectation that at least some of the signing members would, as with the U.N. Declaration on Human
Rights, convert these principles into law. Twenty-five years later, two of them did.
Ecuador rising largely from Andean roots led the way. The impacts of mining and oil exploration had brought massive
protests, some of them violent, from indigenous communities across the region. 205Nature rights were inextricably
entwined with their daily lives, a symbiosis captured in the word "Pachamama," not simply a belief but a way of relating to everything
else around them. 206Upon his election in 2007, President Correa - a Ph.D. economist (University of Illinois) and former Minister of the
Economy - made two overtures that startled the world. 207
The first was an offer to forego oil development in Yasuni National Park, a World Heritage Site and one of the most
biologically important environments on earth, at the sacrifice of billions of dollars in revenues … if nations of the
world reimburse 50% of these losses in compensation. 208Supervised by an international trust, much of the monies
would be used to protect and improve the lot of indigenous peoples in the region. Although Ecuador itself, minerals-
dependent and by no means a wealthy country, would be absorbing 50% of the hit, the world turned him down . No U.S. official even
acknowledged it. In 2013 [*38] Correa announced defeat and opened a small area of the Yasuni Park to oil exploration. 209Saving Pachamama
in one large coup was not going to work.
The other initiative moved from the ground up. Also in 2007, Correa called a constitutional convention, which the following
year produced three new articles conferring rights on nature itself. 210Promoted strongly by a coalition of indigenous groups
called the Pachamama Alliance (in turn supported by scientists, state legislatures, and several international NGOs), 211the articles were at first
blush breathtaking, even unimaginable … and they remain so in some quarters today.
Article: 71 announced the "right of Pachamama to be respected," including "the maintenance and regeneration of its vital cycles, structure,
functions and evolutionary processes," and the right of standing for every "individual, community, people, or nationality" to demand that public
authorities comply. 212Article: 72 added a right to restoration, over and above indemnification for damages under other laws. 213Article: 73
[*39] provided special protections for endangered species and ecosystems. 214As written, these obligations are absolute. 215 They were yet
reinforced by a later amendment inverting the burden of proof in cases of real or potential damage to nature. 216Until
recently only one exception to them, for the Yasuni exploration, had been made. 217
In 2017, nine years after enactment, Ecuador's articles were reexamined in a legislative process leading to a rights of nature
code. The first draft of the code contained little language on them and met considerable opposition. 218After debate, a second draft reinserted
the rights of nature, but with few specifics. 219After more debate, a final bill went to the President with each of the above articles restored, and
some yet strengthened. 220At last count, fourteen judicial decisions have cited these rights with approval . 221
Pausing to reflect on the Ecuador experience, three aspects are particularly instructive. The first is that they
include each element of the
ethical framework : existence, perpetuation, and restoration. The second is their orientation, which, aside from safeguards for
endangered species, is explicitly ecosystem-focused . To be sure, wildlife and other species are protected within ecosystem function, but
as with the U.N. Declaration earlier, Ecuador kept its eye on the larger prize. The third is that Ecuador was not alone.
[*40] Bolivia followed closely and went on to up the ante. In 2015, driven by the same impulses as its neighbor (it is also part of
the Andean universe) and after elections, it came under the direction of Latin America's first indigenous President, Evo Morales. 222In April
2010, on the heels of a failed climate change convention in Copenhagen, Bolivia hosted a World People's Conference on Climate Change and the
Rights of Mother Earth, which, with more than 32,000 participants from fifty-four countries, produced a Declaration of its own, presented to the
G-7 nations and the U.N. Secretary General later that year. 223Importantly, it was also presented to the national legislature, which then adopted
ten principles, the most relevant of which were the right of nature to its own existence, to its diversity in a natural state, and to restoration.
224Environmental ethics anno dominium 2000 made law.
In 2012, Bolivia enacted a more detailed version, Framework Law of the Mother Earth and Integral Development for Living Well, which
affirmed the legal rights of Pachamama and rejected material production and consumption as national goals. 225In addition to specific
prescriptions for, inter alia, renewable energy, organic agriculture, and corporate conduct, 226the legislature created a new Ministry of Mother
Earth and an ombudsman to receive and respond to citizen complaints. 227Citizens and organizations were, as in Ecuador, given standing to
defend nature's rights wherever they might arise. 228On paper, at least, Bolivia too was going to make it happen.
From these roots, legal principles of nature rights emerge: (1) to avoid disruption of basic ecosystem functions; (2) to
avoid harm to all natural areas where alternatives are available; (3) to avoid critical areas [*41] altogether; (4) to
mitigate prospective damage fully and in kind; and (5) to restore damage already incurred. None of these principles
are rocket-science; several are found in existing (if limited in scope) national programs. More detailed prescriptions are contained
in the earlier referenced Draft European Directive, 229with structures for implementation and enforcement (including
criminal law, a daunting provision). 230A similar structure was presented to the Ecuadorian Assembly in 2008, complete with decision-making
matrix and flow chart, but has not yet been adopted. 231With which, thirty-five years after its adoption, the U.N. Declaration of 1982 has born its
first offspring, more mature, more considered, and ready for take-off. What remains is to let it go forward and evolve. 232
This evolution will demand respect for existing environmental programs that have their own , often more-targeted
missions and some significant accomplishments to their name. They also have significant handicaps, however, some
shackled by their authorizing statutes, 233more still by the lack of budget and personnel (nowhere abundant), and nearly
all by political challenges that may leave them vulnerable, where functioning at all. Which is where rights of nature,
properly perceived, kick in .
Properly viewed, rights of nature need not be a separate regulatory system , raising obvious difficulties with redundancy
and conflicts. It [*42] need not be a system at all, but rather a pulse-check in the nature of due process that ensures decisions from
line agencies also meet standards fundamental to the earth as a whole. This has been the approach of several U.S.
states and many courts abroad in the interpretation of similarly broad mandates. 234 Most resource development does
not put species of ecosystems at serious risk , but for those that do, nature rights can be a significant partner to
existing programs , reinforcing them against the same pressures that led to their creation in the first place. Their next best
friend.
There are some of course who would argue that nature rights cannot, and should not, play so fundamental a role. We have met several arguments
earlier in this Article: . 235Taking them singly or in concert, it is hard not to conclude that, whatever science and ethics tell us about humans and
the natural world, these people simply do not want them to be fundamental. According to a recent contributor to the National Review:
I keep writing about [nature rights] because - like cancer, early detection and eradication surgery is the key to stopping this madness… . [A]
malevolently malignant attack on human thriving that, if allowed to take hold, presents an existential threat to human exceptionalism and the
moral values of Western civilization. 236
[*43] Whether humanity can loosen the shackles of this view sufficiently to appreciate, and accept, the exceptionalism of other life may be the
ultimate question of this field.
There are some who have done just this, including the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the Philippines, Hilario Davide. 237In a case
of first impression invalidating large sales of virgin timber previously authorized by the government, Davide wrote:
As a matter of fact these basic rights [preserving the rhythm and harmony of nature] need not even be written in the Constitution
for they are assumed to exist from the inception of humankind. If they are now explicitly mentioned … it is because
of the well-founded fear of its framers that unless the rights to a balanced and healthful ecology are mandated … the
day would not be too far when all else would be lost not only for the present generation but for also for those to
come - generations which stand to inherit nothing but parched earth incapable of sustaining life . 238
Solvency---Legal Personhood Feasibility
Legal personhood for nature’s totally feasible---corporate rights prove the law can easily
accommodate the interests of non-human entities
Erin L. O’Donnell 18, Senior Fellow at Melbourne Law School; and Julia Talbot-Jones, Visiting Fellow at the
Australian National University, 2018, “Creating legal rights for rivers: lessons from Australia, New Zealand, and
India,” Ecology and Society, Vol. 23, No. 1
Protecting the environment through judicial process is one of the lasting legacies of the rapid expansion of environmental law that occurred
through the 1960s and 1970s (Plater 1994, Gunningham 2009). Over this period, environmental law emerged as a distinct discipline and a range
of legal tools were established to protect the environment from the impact of human activities (Sax 1971, Grinlinton 1990, Preston 2007, Fisher
2010). Since then, most environmental law has focused on either protecting particular special or iconic features, or by
placing sustainable limits on development and use of resources (Doremus 2002, Stallworthy 2008, Fisher 2010, Godden and Peel
2010). However, these approaches have often obscured the particular interests of “nature ” behind the effects of
environmental degradation on human interests (Carlson 1998, Bertagna 2006, Sands 2012). For example, the public trust doctrine
(Sax 1970) places emphasis on the public use of natural resources (Preston 2005) rather than the protection of nature itself. Addressing this
obscurity has become one of the core challenges in environmental law.
The key question has become how to best represent the environment in court, and how to frame the legal challenges
to deliver “judicial protection of nature for the sake of nature itself” (Daly 2012:63). Stone (1972) proposed a method to
recognize the rights of nature in his seminal paper Should Trees Have Standing?, which showed how nature could be personified
in law, so that it could seek legal redress on its own behalf. Stone combined a philosophical argument with key practical steps to
enable the environment to become a legal subject. He identified three legal criteria that “go toward making a thing count
jurally”: (1) “that the thing can institute legal actions at its behest”; (2) “that in determining the granting of legal relief, the
court must take injury to it into account ”; and (3) “that relief must run to the benefit ” of it (Stone 1972:458 [emphasis in the
original]). The essence of these legal criteria is to create the possibility for nature to take action in court to protect its
own interests: to give nature itself legal standing .
Although Stone’s proposal has remained on the fringes of mainstream environmental law (Naffine 2012, Warnock 2012), it is premised on a
concept widely accepted in law: that legal rights can be conferred on nonhuman entities. The creation of “legal
fictions” is a long-standing mechanism to create legal personality for a range of nonhuman entities, including, most
notably, for-profit corporations (Micklethwait and Wooldridge 2003, Truitt 2006, Farrar 2007). The advantage of this legal approach is
that it creates a new, identifiable, legal entity (the legal person), which includes all the necessary legal rights
(standing, contract, and property) for granting the nonhuman entity its own personality. Although there are limited examples
of using the legal person in the environmental context, it has been used for many purposes throughout history, including
businesses, not-for-profit charities, and religious organizations (Micklethwait and Wooldridge 2003), as well as Hindu
deities.[1]
Rights of nature are legally feasible---the law’s evolved to recognize rights of non-human
legal entities and expanded to grant rights to previously-excluded classes of people---
environment’s no different
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
Stone's treatise, unsurpassed in the grace of its expression, rested on three legs. He noted, first, that standing and
other personal rights had been accorded to corporations , trusts , marine vessels , and a great range of institutions,
none of them even biologically alive. 149He went on to point out that law had evolved to recognize rights in slaves,
Jews, women, Native Americans, and others hitherto regarded legally as "objects," if regarded at all, each one over
fierce resistance entrenched in the past. 150He added, last, that the alternative to recognizing these rights placed
environmental interests in a conceptual hole, 151having to defend natural areas like Mineral King against highly
lucrative developments because a lone hiker some weekend would dislike seeing it on the horizon. Not a very
compelling posture. Perceived as a conflict between two (often-imbalanced) human interests, the most fundamental
interest is missing.
Time has solidified Stone's thesis. The range of rights accorded to U.S. corporations and similar business interests
now include, inter alia, speech, religion, freedom from government searches, and unlimited [*27] campaign
contributions as "persons" under the law. 152Indeed, the very characterization of these artificial entities as "persons"
paves the way for the privileges. At the same time, however, rights-holding has been extended in U.S. law to the
mentally disabled, immigrants, and lesbian, gay, and transgender individuals 153who, in recent centuries, were
persecuted for these same proclivities and remain so in many countries today. "The arc of the moral universe is
long," Martin Luther King once famously predicted, "but it bends towards justice." 154Assuming this to be true, or
at least that we want it to be true, and given our increased understanding of the interconnection of all life on earth , it
would not seem difficult to allow this life, too, its day in court. The threshold barrier is its standing, and it elicits a
chorus of criticism that, in the interest of fairness, deserves its moment in the sun.
Solvency---Representation/Speaking for Nature
Lawyers represent the interests of nonhuman entities all the time
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
Mineral King is the name of the mountain valley that was threatened by development in the Sierra Club v
Morton case
Perhaps the most primitive reaction is that trees cannot talk, they can't even be brought to court, so they will need a
human after all, which leads us back to homocentric litigation. Actually , it leads us instead to the conflation of
lawyer and client . Lawyers represent ships, estates, and other non-people every day. As they could, just as easily,
Mineral King. For these purposes trees don't need tongues , or an IQ of one, for that matter.
Lack of standing for nature means other legal and legislative avenues fail
Hope M. Babcock 16, Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center, 2016, “A Brook with Legal Rights:
The Rights of Nature in Court,” Ecology Law Quarterly, Vol. 43, https://lawcat.berkeley.edu/record/1127508?ln=en
Reflecting on the intervention petition of Little Mahoning Creek, the time seems ripe to revisit Stone‘s proposal.7 If
there was a moral and practical imperative to giving nature an independent voice in court in 1972, it is even truer
today . The current trend in the Supreme Court is to increase the barriers facing surrogate litigants who seek to
protect some feature of the environment from harm, particularly the barrier presented by Article III standing . Why
these cases increasingly fail—despite the ingenuity of the lawyers—is the attenuated, almost fictive connection
between the interested or injured party and the threatened resource. The lack of success in prosecuting these cases
forces the resolution of natural resource conflicts into the political branches , which evince no capacity to act . But, if
the natural resource could appear in its own right to complain of threats to its continued existence, the injury prong
of Article III standing should cease to be a problem .8
AT: Neg Arguments
AT: Conservative Backlash
No conservative backlash---support for RoN transcends political boundaries and wins over
skeptics
Robin R. Milam 12, Administrative Director for the Global Alliance for the Rights of Nature, 2012, “RIVERS
AND NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS AS RIGHTS BEARING SUBJECTS,” https://www.therightsofnature.org/rivers-
and-natural-ecosystems-as-rights-bearing-subjects/
In a historic preliminary agreement announced in August 2012, the Whanganui River of New Zealand is being granted legal personhood rights.
The River is a major commercial route on the North Island and is sacred to the Whanganui iwi ─ Maori. Negotiations have taken decades to get
this far. The proposed framework agreement assigns shared guardian responsibilities for the river to Iwi and officials representing the Crown.
This landmark move is a first for New Zealand but not for the world. (http://www.therightsofnature.org/rights-of-nature-laws/whanganui-river-
given-rights-as-a-legal-identity/)
Across the Pacific, the Vilcabamba River of Ecuador has also been recognized as a rights bearing subject of the law. In 2008 Ecuador became
the first country in the world to include Rights of Nature in its Constitution. The Constitution states that Nature … has the right to exist, persist,
maintain and regenerate its vital cycles, structure, functions and evolutionary processes. Furthermore, the people of Ecuador have the legal
authority and responsibility to enforce these rights on behalf of ecosystems including rivers. In 2011, a major development project impacted the
flow of the Vilcabamba River. Local residents filed a suit against the developer on behalf of the river. At the conclusion of a court trial, the river
won. The judge awarded damages to the river and restoration is currently in process. (http://www.therightsofnature.org/first-ron-case-ecuador/)
Granting legal standing to natural ecosystems is not isolated to these two cases. Recognizing rights of nature and natural ecosystems
is the focus of a global grassroots movement . In 2010 in Cochabamba, Bolivia over 35,000 people came together at a Peoples
Conference to acclaim the Universal Declaration for Rights of Mother Earth.( http://www.therightsofnature.org/universal-declaration/) A copy of
the declaration with 120,000 signatures was presented to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the Rio+20 Earth Summit in June 20126.
(http://www.rightsofmotherearth.com/signatures-delivered-rio20/) Also in 2010, the Global Alliance for the Rights of Nature1 was formed to
provide a global hub for empowering the movement.
Although the idea has been advanced for decades, the pivotal legal reframing of nature as a rights bearing subject actually took root in 2006 in the
small rural community of Tamaqua Borough, Pennsylvania, USA. (http://www.celdf.org/article.php?id=440) In less than a decade almost three
dozen communities in the United States have passed local ordinances which recognize Rights of Nature. In November 2012, more ordinance
proposals will be on local ballots. In addition to the United States and Ecuador, Rights of Nature laws are being implemented in Bolivia and
proposed in other countries.
The story of Tamaqua Borough (http://www.celdf.org/section.php?id=198) is an example of one of the ways communities from Maine to
Washington State and California are uniting to implement similar ordinances. Coal has provided the economic base for the Borough of Tamaqua
for much of the last century. As coal mining in the region declined, mining companies began to look for other sources of profit by using their
abandoned mine pits as toxic waste dumpsites. Industrial and wastewater sludge or “biosolids” were being dumped into the large unlined pits. In
time, toxic waste began to leach into the surrounding rivers and aquifers. When residents learned the coal companies also planned to fill the pits
with fly ash, the poisonous dust residue from coal mining, they rallied together. Attempting to protect their community, the Borough Council had
an abrupt awakening as they began to understand that the environmental regulatory systems did not provide protection they so desperately wanted
and needed. Because the rivers and aquifers had no standing in the law and the contaminating pits were owned by the mining corporations, the
community had no recourse for protecting themselves or their local ecosystems under the current laws and regulatory system. The permit process
permitted the contamination rather than provided protection of their local ecosystems.
With the assistance of Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund (CELDF http://celdf.org), Tamaqua Borough passed a rights based
ordinance which recognized the rights of the natural ecosystems that were being polluted and the rights of the community to decide on issues
effecting them. The ordinance declares that “It shall be unlawful for any corporation…to interfere with the existence of natural communities or
ecosystems or to cause damage…Ecosystems shall be considered to be ‘person’ for the purpose of enforcement.” The Borough of Tamaqua and
its residents are granted standing to represent natural communities and ecosystems.3
Other communities are driven by a variety of galvanizing issues. The City of Pittsburgh, PA (http://www.yesmagazine.org/people-
power/pittsburg-bans-natural-gas-drilling) has passed a local ordinance recognizing the rights of the local ecosystems and natural communities
while limiting corporate personhood rights to prevent fracking within the City. For Santa Monica, CA a resolution including recognition of the
Rights of Nature is part of the City’s overall Sustainability Plan. In Shapleigh, Maine, the City Council moved to protect the city’s ground water
resources from corporate extraction and exploitation by companies such as Nestle to produce bottled water. Food sovereignty, the Tar Sands pipe
line, threat of toxic contamination, and other emerging issues are uniting communities to stand for the rights of both their human and natural
communities.
The move is a fundamental change from the current position of most modern legal systems which treat nature as
property to be bought, sold, and consumed often under commerce laws. The underlying r ights o f n ature premise
recognizes our human interdependence on the natural ecosystems of which humans are apart and which sustain all
life . These interrelated values are integral to ancient indigenous wisdom around the world but are ignored by
today’s anthropologic framework for modern law.
It is a movement that transcends political values and ideologies . If you are inclined to assume the movement is the work of a
bunch of left winged progressive, tree huggers, think again. Many of the cities and townships in the US who have embraced R ights
o f N ature are conservative, right wing communities. Citizens across diverging political ideologies are emboldened
to take a stand once they fully understand that the US Constitution and/or current environment protection laws do
not protect the natural communities which sustain healthy, human life or do not recognize our rights as community to make the
quality of life choices that are ours to make.
The time has come to recognize that We the People are an integral part of the natural communities that sustain us and
to recognize the rights of our natural ecosystems not only to exist, but to sustain their natural, healthy balance for the
benefit of all life.
AT: Rights Inherently Anthropocentric
Rights aren’t inherently anthropocentric---human recognition doesn’t devalue nature
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
A more conceptual objection is that nature rights cannot exist because humans would have to declare them , making
them anthropocentric from the start, confusing process with substance. Of course, humans would have to recognize
them (or recognize them as natural law) but this makes them no less real, nor does it make them perforce human-
centered . If we acknowledge that other living things have rights to be, to continue to be, then it is simply false to
claim to say that these rights as ours; they are theirs and focused on their needs, which is the definition of
ecocentricity . In many instances, of course, anthropomorphic and ecocentric interests marry - a healthy river curves
to mind - but this is a far cry from contending that only one is valid. Neither logic nor law renders us incapable of
recognizing, and dealing with, the other.
AT: Impossible to Know Nature’s Interests
Nature self-evidently has interests in continued existence and restoration---no
interpretation required
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
Another objection to ecocentricity, although it is hard to take seriously, is that offered by the philosopher Mark
Sagoff: how does any human "purport to know the interests of a voiceless object?" 184It may be, he goes on,
Mineral King valley wants a Disney resort. The question, although in one sense facetious, can be met by simple
observation. All living things on earth struggle against dying and to reproduce their own , which if nothing else
demonstrates a primordial urge to exist and continue existing. And, as evidenced by green shoots poking up through
the sidewalk each spring, an urge to restore itself when it can. These are basic tenets of environmental ethics anno
dominium 2000. Anomalously, almost every child knows them. 185It is the adults who have the problem.
AT: Anthropocene Means No Natural Baseline
Even if there’s no objective natural baseline, we should still have protections against
ecocide, obviously
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
Others reject nature rights because, in their view, nature no longer exists . We are in the Anthropocene, human
impacts are everywhere, and there is no natural baseline. 186This claim is echoed by those who insist [*34] that
humans, too, are part of nature and thus whatever humans do is, by definition, natural as well. 187America's national
parks, one skeptic claims, are "as much human constructions as Disneyland." 188One might respond, as to Sagoff,
that one visit to Disneyland should suffice to show the difference. More particularly, though, while undoubtedly
altered and massively threatened by climate change, nature and natural systems are all around us, struggling, even
morphing, but surviving. Humans, like all other living elements of nature, will die too someday , but we still have
laws against homicide . Rights of nature are simply laws against ecocide as well.
AT: Nature Would Be A Defendant
Nature wouldn’t be a defendant or liable for environmental harm
Hope M. Babcock 16, Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center, 2016, “A Brook with Legal Rights:
The Rights of Nature in Court,” Ecology Law Quarterly, Vol. 43, https://lawcat.berkeley.edu/record/1127508?ln=en
Another question Stone raises is that if nature is granted rights, like the ability to appear in court as a plaintiff, why
should liability not attach to it for the harms it causes like wildfires, floods, landslides, and droughts? 311 In other
words, why should nature not also be required to appear as a defendant? Stone actually agrees that nature should pay
for the harm it causes and proposes that judgments against nature should be paid from trust funds established for
court ordered damages to the environment. 312 However, this would be a mistake . The complexity and
improbability of attributing harm to nature and ruling out any causative human factors like global warming, building
in flood prone and/or landslide vulnerable areas, or careless camping, makes this a much more complicated and
resource intensive effort than identifying a specific human cause for nature's harm and should not be entertained by
the courts . The last question, also raised by Stone, is the matter of determining appropriate remedies for injuries to
nature. 313 Although still a complex and difficult process, doing this has become more routine under laws like the
Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) 314 and the Oil Pollution
Act. 315
Counterplan Answers
Human Right to Nature CP
2AC---Human Right to Nature CP---Top Deficit
Rights of nature are better than human rights to nature---the CP institutionalizes
environmental destruction
Susana Borràs 16, lecturer of Public international law and International Relations in the Department of Public
International Law and International Relations in the Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV, Tarragona-Spain), 2016,
“New Transitions from Human Rights to the Environment to the Rights of Nature,” Transnational Environmental
Law, Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 113-143
The recognition and protection of ‘rights of nature’ represents a new approach in the field of environmental law.
Traditionally, legal systems have considered nature as ‘property’ and have promoted laws to guarantee the property
rights of individuals, corporations and other legal entities. The consequence has been that environmental laws and
regulations, despite their preventive approach, have developed so as to legalize and legitimate environmental harm .
Certainly, the recognition of individual rights in relation to the environment has had a significant influence at the supranational level. However,
the recognition of a human right to an adequate environment has not been without controversy . Firstly, the protection
of the environment through a human right to an adequate environment, rather than through protective rules, has had
no discernible positive impact on the conservation of natural resources. Secondly, protection of the environment is not
really an individual right but an unenforceable programmatic norm.
A new approach is emerging, however: the recognition of the rights of nature, which implies a holistic approach to all life and
all ecosystems . In recent years, a series of normative precedents have surfaced, which recognize that nature has certain rights as a legal
subject and holder of rights. These precedents potentially contribute not merely a greater sensitivity to the environment, but a thorough
reorientation about how to protect the Earth as the centre of life.
From this perspective, known as ‘ biocentrism ’, nature is not an object of protection but a subject with fundamental rights ,
such as the rights to exist, to survive, and to persist and regenerate vital cycles. The implication of this recognition is that human
beings have the legal authority and responsibility to enforce these rights on behalf of nature in that rights of nature
become an essential element for the sustainability and the survivability of human societies . This concept is based on the
recognition that humans, as but one part of life on earth, must live within their ecological limits rather than see themselves as
the purpose of environmental protection, as the ‘anthropocentric’ approach proposes. Humans are trustees of the
Earth rather than being mere stewards . The idea is based on the proposition that ecosystems of air, water, land, and atmosphere are a
public trust and should be preserved and protected as habitat for all natural beings and natural communities .
Recognizing rights of nature, Ecuador, Bolivia and a growing number of communities in the United States (US) are developing their
environmental protection policies on the premise that nature has inalienable rights. This is a radical move away from the assumption
that nature is property – an assumption which has fostered climate change , the disappearance of natural areas,
indiscriminate surface felling of trees, desertification of new territories, dumping of toxic substances, oil slicks, and
endless other actions that cause environmental damage . This article tracks the change from the anthropocentric to the biocentric
perspective and its implementation, including the recent trend in attributing a greater role to human responsibility for environmental protection.
The article also discusses new regulatory precedents which mark an evolution in environmental law, both nationally and internationally, aimed at
achieving an environmental policy that is more consistent with the conservation of natural resources. Finally, the article explores the questions of
who is able to claim the rights of nature and how legal systems can best defend them.
Rights of nature are the only durable, irreversible approach to environmental protection---
reliance on human interests fails
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
One need not be a Cassandra to note that the forests of the world are rapidly vanishing, as are wetlands to development,
mangroves to fish farms, and grasslands to desert; small continents of plastics now rotate in all five oceans , growing larger
each year, fragments leaching into the stomachs of pelagic turtles, fish, and birds; heavy toxins now contaminate the Arctic and do
not degrade; glaciers from the Andes to the Himalayas are melting, as are the ice sheets of the North and South Poles; Australia's
Great Barrier Reef is bleached white and disintegrating, and with it some of the most astonishing life forms on earth; fresh water
amphibians are plummeting, as are avian migrations, pollinators, and butterflies ; two thirds of the breeding birds of Britain, a
country noted for its attention to them, are in decline, some species already extinct; the tiger, the orangutan, and mega-vertebrates on every
continent are living on borrowed time and may find their final refuge in zoos; forms of life that developed over eons, entire
complexes of life, are winking out like birthday candles, up to three species an hour , an estimated 15% to 40% [*46] of
all species by 2050, not to malice, not necessarily by design, but all by human hands. 248
At the same time, national programs designed to arrest these declines, have at best slowed them instead. Those intending
to "eliminate" discharges end up authorizing them at lower levels; 249others [*47] managed under "multiple use" yield
to the highest bidders, 250yet others prescribe but do not require, 251or mitigate but do not avoid, 252or mitigate only
part of the harm and declare victory. 253On the natural resources side, landscape-level issues are rarely addressed, 254and recent
attempts to do so are now up for repeal. 255Recovery plans for endangered species - nature most at risk - lie unenforceable
and unimplemented, more aspirational than the term "plan" would imply. 256 Even the most ironclad statutes yield to the
unceasing demands of politicians, lobbyists, and litigation that may stall them for decades, 257leading to a kind of
stasis in [*48] which nature is simply lucky to hang on . At this pivotal juncture, America, long a world leader in
environmental protection , has gone into a freefall with no end in sight. 258All of which has prompted searches for new
approaches, a countervailing right of its own .
Nature rights are not the only response on the table. Fusing environmental rights with human rights has gained considerable traction
in countries with significant indigenous populations, opening their own front on natural resource preservation. 259The U.S. public trust doctrine
has experienced a revival of its own, 260and a recent trust case in Oregon (by and on behalf of children) has dared to challenge climate change
head on. 261The broadest of these approaches yet, launched in the early l970s, has been to incorporate environmental provisions (e.g., "each
person has the right to a healthy environment") into half the constitutions of the world, 262building their own precedent, leading to surprisingly
[*49] favorable judicial decisions on every continent 263and to such related initiatives as France's right of non-regression (an idea of genius).
264Given the success of these patently open-ended doctrines, one is tempted to simply declare "rights of nature" as well and let the courts figure
them out … as they have with such basic concepts as "due process," "privacy," and "equal protection" in other areas of law. To an extent this has
already begun, but considerable work has also been done on standards as well. There is room for both processes to move forward, which is the
way evolution works. And succeeds.
Each of these approaches seeks a redline for human development while there is still time . Each remains, however,
essentially anthropocentric , our entitlement to nature for our use and enjoyment, and this approach has its attractions not only
for its reliance on tangible benefits but also its
comforting notion that the environment is "ours" to begin with. Their
drawback is that they are also "ours" to end with , and what humans claim for themselves they can also unclaim ,
often quite easily . Programs disappear. Entire institutions disappear. Protections that depend on humans staying the
course are inherently fragile , and when lost can be lost forever. It is the terrible dynamic of this field.
Which takes us back to rights in nature. Their very ecocentricity , anathema to their critics, is their first value-added , an
extrinsic trigger new to the game. 265The decision is no longer simply mano-a-mano among competing human
preferences , and its measuring sticks are more objective than those found in other schemes : risks to living things we can
calculate, avoid, and restore. They are the missing party with its own bottom line. These rights may take decades to mature (what rights do not?),
but as rights, they will be difficult to remove . In the meantime, they open the door. More than that, they open the mind.
A second value-added by nature rights is deeply rooted in the human genome. We grew up together, producing linkages that E.O. Wilson calls
"biophilia," 266and they are all around us, found in the [*50] simplest things: in nursery rhymes, stuffed bears, and trips to the zoo, in
birdfeeders, whale watches and animal rescue leagues, in fishing rods, hunting licenses and the (astonishing) popularity of the National Park
System, in the Eagle Bar, the Chicago Bears and the Year of the Snake and the Rabbit, in corporate logos, real estate prices and the names of
SUVs, in the place we seek out for honeymoons, vacations or the briefest moment to exhale … a still pond, the shade of a tree, the sight of a
white bird rising, with gratitude for their being out there, for the simple fact of their being.
Rights of nature tap into a place that anthropomorphism and its pragmatism , for all their importance, cannot touch : a powerful link
to the human heart. They
provide a baseline not easy for humans to manipulate, backed by this undeniable bond. Their
contribution to the world at large could be yet greater , not limited to changing outcomes in particular cases, nor to empowering local
communities, nor to creating new protected areas and restoring old ones before they too disappear, nor even to finding a place in corporate
sustainability codes, gross domestic product, and other instruments of the prevailing economic order. Through each of these means and more, in
framing a new way to perceive the world, an old way really, a world we will continue to dominate but may come to
acknowledge as entitled to life, liberty, and a pursuit of happiness all its own.
A great deal may ride on this happening.
The CP misses the vast majority of harm to ecosystems that don’t intersect with human
interests
Erin L. O’Donnell 18, Senior Fellow at Melbourne Law School; and Julia Talbot-Jones, Visiting Fellow at the
Australian National University, 2018, “Creating legal rights for rivers: lessons from Australia, New Zealand, and
India,” Ecology and Society, Vol. 23, No. 1
Second, the argument for the use of legal personality for protecting nature is one of efficiency and cost
effectiveness . If the injuries to the environment (as opposed to the human users of, or participants in, that
environment) are ignored, then a significant proportion of the total injuries are not accounted for. For example, the
cost of poor water quality to users is calculated in terms of the costs of treatment necessary to improve the water
quality to the required standard. However, this treatment may fail to address the broader issues associated with the
river’s ecosystem health and well-being. If the injuries to the river are not recognized in court, then they cannot be
compensated for , which means that the true costs of environmental impacts may be underestimated . Further,
without giving due consideration to the injuries imposed on the river, the damages to other potential plaintiffs may
be insufficient to cover the costs of litigation. In some cases this may result in the litigation not proceeding.
States CP
2AC---States CP
Solvency deficits:
b) Federal lands---they’re key to the overall environment and only protected by federal
standing for nature
Michael Shank 21, the communications director at the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance and adjunct faculty at New
York University’s Center for Global Affairs, 3/19/21, “Protecting federal lands should be a no-brainer,”
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/544049-protecting-federal-lands-should-be-a-no-brainer
Undoing former President Donald Trump’s legacy of environmental damage and degradation — and his administration’s many
regulatory rollbacks — has been high on President Joe Biden’s 100 days to-do list. The impressive lineup of environmental leaders
appointed across energy, transportation, environment and interior departments and agencies indicates the seriousness of Biden’s green agenda.
Many in the environmental movement are, rightly, hopeful.
There’s one area in particular , however, where the Biden administration could go further and maximize its
environmental impact across agencies; it builds on Biden’s executive order to halt fossil fuel leasing on public lands
and water. It sits within the Department of Interior (DOI), now headed by the historic confirmation of America’s first Native American
secretary, Deb Haaland. It would start with federal lands and set an important legal rights-based precedent for how we
approach and utilize these taxpayer-owned lands.
Here’s the proposal. Federal lands — also referred to as public lands — should be safe for the public and should not threaten or
undermine public safety. That seems like a no-brainer. Further, anyone that compromises the public's safety — and the public's
“right to be let alone,” which U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis noted were “the most comprehensive of rights" in his dissent in
Olmstead v. United States — should be held accountable under the law.
This also seems like a no-brainer. Public lands should, indeed, be safe for the public. And yet they’re not. Public lands are some of the
most exploited, extracted and unsafe lands in America — a reality made worse by the Trump administration. But it’s a legacy of
heavy extraction that started long before Trump. A recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report shows that many of the nearly 900
mining operations on federal lands aren’t subject to royalties — meaning that companies are not paying taxpayers for the benefits of drilling on
public lands — nor are they required to produce data for the government to review.
This lack of transparency and accountability allows these mining operators — again, on public lands — to pollute and
discharge excessive damaging effluents into “ 12,000 miles of American rivers and streams and 180,000 acres of
lakes and reservoirs , destroying drinking-water supplies and crucial wildlife habitat .”
These private companies are operating freely within mining laws that haven’t been updated since the 1870s and extracting public resources on
taxpayer-owned land. Not only are they not paying royalties for access to public resources, but they’re also polluting these public resources
without paying cleanup costs.
For all these reasons and more, a lawsuit was recently filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon — and it’s
currently being appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit — that aims to establish legal protections for
Americans when using publicly owned land, whether they're doing scientific research, recreating socially or observing nature and its inhabitants.
It’s long past time that we update the old laws from the 1800s. This lawsuit, which aims to do that and set a new benchmark for treatment of
public lands, was brought against the Trump administration’s DOI, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (DOA), the U.S. Department of Defense
(DOD), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and their secretaries.
It will now carry forward and apply to Biden’s administration. Filed by the Animal Legal Defense Fund and others, the lawsuit applies a
rights-based framing and reaffirms what rightly should be perceived as citizens' rights — and , by extension, the rights
of nature and its inhabitants .
This latest effort to protect public lands isn’t new. President Theodore Roosevelt, an ardent protector of public lands, tried to set a standard for the
right use of public lands, encouraging the preservation and right use of forests and the right use of waters. Roosevelt would be horrified with the
exploitation, extraction and exhaustion of our public lands and with Trump’s last-minute selling off of oil drilling rights in the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge, just one example of how easily public lands can be exploited for private profit.
Biden’s administration has an opportunity to lead here and return the rights of
That’s why the lawsuit is so important and why
federally owned lands to the public. Biden put a freeze on new leases on public lands, but what about the old leases? What would it look
like in practice if the lawsuit moves forward and successfully secures the right to be “let-alone” on public lands?
It would give Americans freedom from harm on those lands — including the harm from air pollution, water pollution,
mining pollution, drilling pollution and more — and the right to clean air and clean water. Again, this seems like a no-brainer. And we have a
history of rights-based advocacy on which this lawsuit builds: the right to vote, the right to bear arms, the right to marriage, the right to choose
and the right to own property.
The freedoms won in the last century were pitched, packaged and positioned as rights owed to deserving and/or underserved communities. It's an
effective proposition, as Americans are fond of the Founders and their rights-based framing. The history of rights-based wins in court is arguably
the most compelling story of progress in America.
Now it's time to add to those rights: The right for humans to be let alone and the right of nature — and its inhabitants — to be let
alone , too. That is why the ALDF v. U.S. lawsuit is so important. Now, more than ever, we need legal protections — and rights —
to ensure that nature is left alone. Until we have a stronger legal foundation for the protection of the public and the
natural environment , both will continue to be put in harm's way.
It’s time for the Biden administration to strengthen the right to be let alone, in order to lock in environmental protection . This
one move might be Biden’s most effective environmental play this term. We've made much progress in the past century. Now it's
time to make more.
Federal courts will strike down the CP for violating the supremacy clause
Meredith N. Healy 19, J.D. Candidate, University of Colorado Law School, 2019, “Fluid Standing: Incorporating
the Indigenous Rights of Nature Concept into Collaborative Management of the Colorado River Ecosystem,”
Colorado Natural Resources, Energy & Environmental Law Review,
https://www.colorado.edu/law/sites/default/files/attached-files/healy_web_edition_pdf.pdf
Following Sierra Club v. Morton, environmental advocacy was limited to a duly-injured advocate with access to the
courts claiming injurious impact on a human. Over the past decade, however, American legal and social scholars have
begun to question whether this third-party advocacy is the best way to advocate for the environment .74
A. Grassroots Rights of Nature Legislative Campaigns Take on Well-Funded Oil and Gas Industry
From their Mid-Atlantic base, the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund (“CELDF”) has promoted the rights of nature by providing
legislative language to communities around the country.75 In 1995, CELDF began a dual mission to promote local self-government and the rights
of nature.76 Since then, over 200 communities have adopted CELDF-drafted local legislation.77
In New Mexico in 2013, the Mora County Board of Commissioners passed a CELDF-drafted ordinance “protecting the
rights of human communities, nature, and natural water.”78 The main thrust of the ordinance was the county’s desire that
“corporations may not drill, extract, or contract for any oil and gas development.”79 An energy exploration firm filed suit against
both the county and its board of commissioners, seeking an injunction to prohibit the defendants from enforcing the
ordinance proscribing extractive uses within the county.80 In a 138-page opinion, the United States District Court for the District
of New Mexico struck down the ordinance , holding, as pertinent here, that the ordinance violated the Supremacy Clause
and was impermissibly overbroad, in violation of the First Amendment.81 Nevertheless, local extractive use industry publications warned that
“[w]hile industry, the media and the public might ignore all the commotion created about the hydraulic fracturing discussion, this issue is the
beginning of a social movement that is greater than just the oil and gas industry, it is a potential game changer for all of corporate America.”82
In that same year, sixty percent of voters in the town of Lafayette, Colorado, approved the CELDF-drafted “Lafayette Community Rights Act.”
Supported by the League of Women Voters and a local grassroots group, East Boulder County United, this measure targeted the hydraulic
fracturing oil extraction technique (“fracking”) and proposed “certain rights for city residents and ecosystems as part of the city charter such as
clean water, air and freedom from certain chemicals and oil and gas industry by-products.” Less than a year later, the Boulder District Court
ruled in favor of the ballot measure’s opponent, the Colorado Oil and Gas Association. Finding the regulation of oil and gas to be a matter of
mixed state and local concern, Boulder County District Judge D. D. Mallard held that Lafayette did not have the authority to prohibit practices
authorized and permitted by the state.
Similar legislative and judicial attempts by CELDF to codify the rights of nature continue to meet resistance in federal
court . In perhaps the organization’s most publicized anti-fracking and rights of nature case, CELDF’s opponent, Pennsylvania General Energy,
filed a Motion for Sanctions for $52,000 in attorneys’ fees following the utility’s successful yet prolonged litigation in district and circuit courts.
The court reluctantly fined CELDF’s lawyers the full $52,000 for the “continued pursuit of frivolous claims and defenses.”
Space CP
2AC---Perms
Perm do both---durably fiating both means mining for the colonization program is
explicitly exempt from challenge by river rights
Perm do the plan and the United States federal government should substantially increase
outer-space colonization. Neither functionally nor textually intrinsic because investing in outer
space colonization is part of the counterplan. The perm doesn’t mine coal, but other material
sources can fill-in or the government can find workarounds
2AC---Colonization Fails
Colonization fails and we can’t get past mars
Ann Leckie et al. 16, Hugo- and Nebula-award-winning author, 02/16/16, “THE 12 GREATEST
CHALLENGES FOR SPACE EXPLORATION,” http://www.wired.com/2016/02/space-is-cold-vast-and-deadly-
humans-will-explore-it-anyway/
problem: takeoff
Gravity's a Drag
Getting off Earth is a little like getting divorced: You want to do it quickly, with as little baggage as possible. But powerful forces conspire
against you—specifically, gravity. If an object on Earth’s surface wants to fly free, it needs to shoot up and out at speeds exceeding 25,000 mph.
That takes serious oomph—read: dollars. It cost nearly $200 million just to launch the Mars Curiosity rover, about a tenth of the mission’s
budget, and any crewed mission would be weighed down by the stuff needed to sustain life. Composite materials like exotic-metal alloys and
fibered sheets could reduce the weight; combine that with more efficient, more powerful fuel mixtures and you get a bigger bang for your
booster.
But the ultimate money saver will be reusability. “As the number of flights increases, economies of scale kick in,” says Les Johnson, a technical
assistant at NASA’s Advanced Concepts Office. “That’s the key to getting the cost to drop dramatically.” SpaceX’s Falcon 9, for example, was
designed to relaunch time and again. The more you go to space, the cheaper it gets. —Nick Stockton
problem: propulsion
Our Ships Are Way Too Slow
Hurtling through space is easy. It’s a vacuum, after all; nothing to slow you down. But getting
started? That’s a bear. The larger an
object’s mass, the more force it takes to move it—and rockets are kind of massive. Chemical propellants are great
for an initial push, but your precious kerosene will burn up in a matter of minutes. After that, expect to reach the
moons of Jupiter in, oh, five to seven years. That’s a heck of a lot of in-flight movies. Propulsion needs a radical new method .
Here’s a look at what rocket scientists now have, or are working on, or wish they had. —Nick Stockton
problem: space junk
It's a Minefield Up There
Congratulations! You’ve successfully launched a rocket into orbit. But before you break into outer space, a
rogue bit of broke-ass satellite
comes from out of nowhere and caps your second-stage fuel tank. No more rocket.
This is the problem of space debris, and it’s very real. The US Space Surveillance Network has eyes on 17,000 objects—each at
least the size of a softball—hurtling around Earth at speeds of more than 17,500 mph; if you count pieces under 10 centimeters, it’s closer to
500,000 objects. Launch adapters, lens covers, even a fleck of paint can punch a crater in critical systems.
Whipple shields—layers of metal and Kevlar—can protect against the bitsy pieces, but nothing can save you from a whole satellite. Some 4,000
orbit Earth, most dead in the air. Mission control avoids dangerous paths, but tracking isn’t perfect.
Pulling the sats out of orbit isn’t realistic—it would take a whole mission to capture just one. So starting now, all satellites will have to fall out of
orbit on their own. They’ll jettison extra fuel, then use rocket boosters or solar sails to angle down and burn up on reentry. Put decommissioning
programs in 90 percent of new launches or you’ll get the Kessler syndrome: One collision leads to more collisions until there’s so much crap up
there, no one can fly at all. That might be a century hence—or a lot sooner if space war breaks out. If someone (like China?) starts blowing up
enemy satellites, “it would be a disaster,” says Holger Krag, head of the Space Debris Office at the European Space Agency. Essential to
the future of space travel: world peace. —Jason Kehe
problem: navigation
There's No GPS for Space
The Deep Space Network, a collection of antenna arrays in California, Australia, and Spain, is the only navigation tool for space.
Everything from student-project satellites to the New Horizons probe meandering through the Kuiper Belt depends on it to stay oriented. An
ultraprecise atomic clock on Earth times how long it takes for a signal to get from the network to a spacecraft and back, and navigators use that to
determine the craft’s position.
But as more and more missions take flight, the network is getting congested. The switchboard is often busy. So in the near term,
NASA is working to lighten the load. Atomic clocks on the crafts themselves will cut transmission time in half, allowing distance calculations
with a single downlink. And higher-bandwidth lasers will handle big data packages, like photos or video messages.
The farther rockets go from Earth, however, the less reliable this method becomes. Sure, radio waves travel at light speed, but transmissions to
deep space still take hours. And the stars can tell you where to go, but they’re too distant to tell you where you are. For future missions, deep-
space navigation expert Joseph Guinn wants to design an autonomous system that would collect images of targets and nearby objects and use
their relative location to triangulate a spaceship’s coordinates—no ground control required. “It’ll be like GPS on Earth,” Guinn says. “You put a
GPS receiver on your car and problem solved.” He calls it a deep-space positioning system—DPS for short. —Katie M. Palmer
problem: radiation
Space Turns You Into a Bag of Cancer
Outside the safe cocoon of Earth’s atmosphere and magnetic field, subatomic
particles zip around at close to the speed of light.
This is space radiation, and it’s deadly. Aside from cancer, it can also cause cataracts and possibly Alzheimer’s.
When these particles knock into the atoms of aluminum that make up a spacecraft hull, their nuclei blow up,
emitting yet more superfast particles called secondary radiation. “You’re actually making the problem worse,” says
Nasser Barghouty, a physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.
A better solution? One word: plastics. They’re light and strong, and they’re full of hydrogen atoms, whose small nuclei don’t produce much
secondary radiation. NASA is testing plastics that can mitigate radiation in spaceships or space suits.
Or how about this word: magnets. Scientists on the Space Radiation Superconducting Shield project are working on a magnesium diboride
superconductor that would deflect charged particles away from a ship. It works at –263 degrees Celsius, which is balmy for superconductors, but
it helps that space is already so damn cold. —Sarah Zhang
problem: food and water
Mars Has No Supermarkets
Lettuce got to be a hero last August. That’s when astronauts on the ISS ate a few leaves they’d grown in space for the first time. But large-
scale gardening in zero g is tricky. Water wants to float around in bubbles instead of trickling through soil, so engineers
have devised ceramic tubes that wick it down to the plants’ roots. “It’s like a Chia pet,” says Raymond Wheeler, a botanist at Kennedy Space
Center. Also, existing vehicles are cramped. Some veggies are already pretty space-efficient (ha!), but scientists are working on a genetically
modified dwarf plum tree that’s just 2 feet tall. Proteins, fats, and carbs could come from a more diverse harvest—like potatoes and peanuts.
All that’s for naught, though, if you run out of water. (On the ISS, the pee-and-water recycling system needs periodic fixing, and
interplanetary crews won’t be able to rely on a resupply of new parts.) GMOs could help here too. Michael Flynn, an engineer at NASA Ames
Research Center, is working on a water filter made of genetically modified bacteria. He likens it to how your small intestine recycles what you
drink. “Basically you are a water recycling system,” he says. “with a useful life of 75 or 80 years.” This filter would continually replenish itself,
just like your innards do. —Sarah Zhang
problem: bone and muscle wasting
Zero Gravity Will Transform You into Mush
Weightlessness wrecks the body : It makes certain immune cells unable to do their jobs, and red blood cells explode.
It gives you kidney stones and makes your heart lazy. Astronauts on the ISS exercise to combat muscle wasting and bone loss, but
they still lose bone mass in space, and those zero-g spin cycles don’t help the other problems. Artificial gravity would fix all that.
In his lab at MIT, former astronaut Laurence Young is testing a human centrifuge: Victims lie on their side on a platform and pedal a stationary
wheel as the whole contraption spins around. The resulting force tugs their feet—just like gravity, but awkward.
Young’s machine is too cramped to use for more than an hour or two a day, though, so for 24/7 gravity, the whole spacecraft will have to become
a centrifuge. A spinning spaceship could be shaped like a dumbbell, with two chambers connected by a truss. As it gets easier to send more mass
into space, designers could become more ambitious—but they don’t have to reinvent the wheel. Remember the station in 2001: A Space
Odyssey? The design has been around since 1903. —Sarah Zhang
problem: mental health
Interplanetary Voyages Are a Direct Flight to Space Madness
When physicians treat stroke or heart attack, they sometimes bring the patient’s temperature way down, slowing their metabolism to reduce the
damage from lack of oxygen. It’s a trick that might work for astronauts too. Which is good, because to sign up for interplanetary travel is to sign
up for a year (at least) of living in a cramped spacecraft with bad food and zero privacy—a recipe for space madness. That’s why John Bradford
says we should sleep through it. President of the engineering firm SpaceWorks and coauthor of a report for NASA on long missions, Bradford
says cold storage would be a twofer: It cuts down on the amount of food, water, and air a crew would need and keeps them sane. “If we’re going
to become a multiplanet species,” he says, “we’ll need a capability like human stasis.” Sleep tight, voyagers. —Sarah Zhang
problem: touchdown
Crashing Is Not an Option
Planet, ho! You’ve been in space for months. Years, maybe. Now a formerly distant world is finally filling up your viewport. All you have to do
is land. But you’re careening through frictionless space at, oh, call it 200,000 mph (assuming you’ve cracked fusion). Oh yeah, and there’s the
planet’s gravity to worry about. If you don’t want your touchdown to be remembered as one small leap for a human and one giant splat for
humankind, follow these simple steps. —Nick Stockton
problem: resources
You Can't Take a Mountain of Aluminum Ore With You
When space caravans embark from Earth, they’ll leave full of supplies. But you can’t take everything with you. Seeds, oxygen generators, maybe
a few machines for building infrastructure. But settlers will have to harvest or make everything else.
Luckily, space is far from barren. “Every planet has every chemical element in it,” says Ian Crawford, a planetary scientist at Birbeck, University
of London, though concentrations differ. The moon has lots of aluminum. Mars has silica and iron oxide. Nearby asteroids are a great source of
carbon and platinum ores—and water, once pioneers figure out how to mine the stuff. If blasters and drillers are too heavy to ship, they’ll have to
extract those riches with gentler techniques: melting, magnets, or metal-digesting microbes. And NASA is looking into a process that can 3-D-
print whole buildings—no need to import special equipment.
In the end, a destination’s resources will shape settlements, which makes surveying the drop zone critical. Just think of the moon’s far side. “It’s
been pummeled by asteroids for billions of years,” says Anita Gale, a space shuttle engineer. “Whole new materials could be out there.” Before
humanity books a one-way ticket to Kepler-438b, it’ll have to study up. —Chelsea Leu
problem: EXPLORATION
We Can't Do Everything By Ourselves
Dogs helped humans colonize Earth, but they’d survive on Mars about as well as we would. To spread out on a new world, we’ll need a new best
friend: a robot.
See, settling takes a lot of grunt work, and robots can dig all day without having to eat or breathe. Theoretically, at least. Current prototypes—
bulky, bipedal bots that mimic human physiognomy—can barely walk on Earth. So automatons will have to be everything we aren’t—like, say, a
lightweight tracked bot with backhoe claws for arms. That’s the shape of one NASA machine designed to dig for ice on Mars: Its two appendages
spin in opposite directions, keeping it from flipping over as it works.
Still, humans have a big leg up when it comes to fingers. If a job requires dexterity and precision, you want people doing it—provided they have
the right duds. Today’s space suit is designed for weightlessness, not hiking on exoplanets. NASA’s prototype Z-2 model has flexible joints and a
helmet that gives a clear view of whatever delicate wiring needs fixing. When the job’s done, just hop on an autonomous transporter to get home.
Attaboy, Rover. —Matt Simon
problem: space is big
Warp Drives Don't Exist ... Yet
The fastest thing humans have ever built is a probe called Helios 2. It’s dead now, but if sound traveled in space, you’d hear it screaming as it
whips around the sun at speeds of more than 157,000 miles per hour. That’s almost 100 times faster than a bullet, but even at that velocity it
would take some 19,000 years to reach Earth’s first stellar neighbor, Alpha Centauri. It’d be a multigenerational ship, and nobody dreams of
going to space because it’s a nice place to die of old age.
To beat the clock, you need power—and lots of it. Maybe you could mine Jupiter for enough helium-3 to fuel nuclear fusion—after
you’ve figured out fusion engines. Matter-antimatter annihilation is more scalable, but smashing those pugilistic particles together is dangerous.
“You’d never want to do that on Earth,” says Les Johnson, technical assistant for NASA’s Advanced Concepts Office, which works on crazy
starship ideas. “You do that in deep space, so if you have an accident, you don’t destroy a continent.” Too intense? How about solar power? All
you’d need is a sail the size of Texas.
Far more elegant would be hacking the universe’s source code—with physics. The theoretical Alcubierre drive would compress space in front of
your craft and expand space behind it so the stuff in between—where your ship is—effectively moves faster than light. Tweaking the Alcubierre
equations gets you a Krasnikov tube, an interstellar subway that shortens your return trip.
All aboard? Not quite. Humanity will need a few more Einsteins working at places like the Large Hadron Collider to untangle all the theoretical
knots. “It’s entirely possible that we’ll make some discovery that changes everything,” Johnson says. “But you can’t count on that breakthrough
to save the day.” If you want eureka moments, you need to budget for them. That means more cash for NASA— and the particle physicists. Until
then, Earth’s space ambitions will look a lot like Helios 2: stuck in a futile race around the same old star . —Nick
Stockton
problem: THERE’S ONLY ONE EARTH
Let's Not Boldly Go—Let's Boldly Stay
A couple decades back, sci-fi author Kim Stanley Robinson sketched out a future utopia on Mars built by scientists from an overpopulated,
overextended Earth. His Mars trilogy made a forceful case for colonization of the solar system. But, really, other than science, why should we go
to space?
The need to explore is built into our souls, goes one argument—the pioneer spirit and manifest destiny. But scientists don’t talk about pioneers
anymore. “You did hear that frontier language 20, 30 years ago,” says Heidi Hammel, who helps set exploration priorities at NASA. But since the
New Horizons probe passed by Pluto last July, “we’ve explored every type of environment in the solar system at least once,” she says. Humans
could still go dig in the dirt to study distant geology—but when robots can do it, well, maybe not.
As for manifest destiny? Historians know better. Western expansion was a vicious land grab, and the great explorers were
mostly in it for resources or treasure. Human wanderlust expresses itself only in the service of political or economic
will.
Of course, Earth’s impending destruction could provide some incentive. Deplete the planet’s resources and asteroid-belt mining
suddenly seems reasonable. Change the climate and space provides room for humanity (and everything else).
But that’s a dangerous line of thinking. “ It creates a moral hazard ,” Robinson says. “People think if we fuck up here on
Earth we can always go to Mars or the stars. It’s pernicious.” His latest book, Aurora, again makes a forceful case about settlement
beyond the solar system: You probably can’t. As far as anyone knows, Earth is the only habitable place in the universe. If we’re going
to leave this planet, let’s go because we want to—not because we have to. —Adam Rogers
2AC---Extinction Not Inevitable
Earth is habitable---no need to get off the rock
Alex Berezow 17, Senior Fellow of Biomedical Science, 5/4/17, “No, Stephen Hawking, We Won't Have To
Abandon Earth In 100 Years”, https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/05/04/no-stephen-hawking-we-wont-have-abandon-
earth-100-years-11231
So, it shouldn't come as a complete surprise that Dr. Hawking has a dire pronouncement for humanity. In an upcoming documentary, he says
that humans will need to find a new planet on which to dwell within 100 years if we want to survive. Why? According
to International Business Times, humans must abandon Earth "to survive situations like climate change , asteroid strikes ,
epidemics and overpopulation ."¶ He's wrong on every single count.¶ Climate change . There isn't a single worst-case
scenario in which our planet becomes too hot for humans to inhabit. Earth is not about to become Venus... or
Waterworld.¶ Asteroid strikes . The astrophysicist Ethan Siegel once commented, "It is very, very likely that we will
have no major asteroid impacts on Earth over the next 1,000 years, let alone the next 100. It is very likely that there
will be no species-threatening impacts over the next 10 million years. [Original emphasis]" ¶ Epidemics . Because of
economic development and advances in public health, infectious diseases will decline, not increase. We have
already eradicated smallpox, and polio may go extinct, too. Emerging infectious diseases, like Ebola, can be scary
but will come nowhere near threatening the existence of humanity. The biggest threats are from pandemic influenza
and antibiotic-resistant bacteria, but neither represents a threat to the survival of mankind. (Even the Black Death
only managed to kill 1/3 of Europe.)¶ Overpopulation . Demographers believe that the human population will hit
approximately 11 billion in the year 2100. However, because population growth is slowing (and has been for
decades), it is likely that the human population will peak and then decline sometime thereafter. In other words,
humans are not cockroaches; we will not keep reproducing until we're out of food.
--AT: AI
No AI extinction
Jennifer O’Brien 18, writer for CIO, citing Toby Walsh, Scientia Professor of Artificial Intelligence at UNSW,
leader of the Algorithmic Decision Theory group at Data61, Australia's Centre of Excellence for ICT Research,
Guest Professor at TU Berlin, fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, 8/22/18, “‘Don’t worry about
existential threat AI might pose’: futurist,” https://www.cio.com.au/article/645581/don-t-worry-about-existential-
threat-ai-might-pose-futurist/
CIOs need to put aside the Hollywood-induced fear that machines will take over the world and that humanity’s days
are numbered, according to AI expert Toby Walsh.
“We’re a long way from building machines that match human brains,” said Walsh, UNSW professor and research group leader
at Data61 (CSIRO), during his keynote address at the CIO Summit in Sydney.
“We can build machines that do narrow focused tasks - and they can do those tasks often at super-human level - but it’s yet to
be (maybe 50 or 100 years, or ever ) before we can build machines that match the full capabilities of humans . And we
certainly don’t build machines that have any consciousness, sentience, or desires of their own.
“ They do exactly what we tell them to do . That’s the problem in fact,” he said, explaining computers are frustratingly literal
devices.
“There are far more pressing problems facing the planet, like climate change, that we really need to deal with before we have
to worry about the existential threat that a rtificial i ntelligence might pose.”
That said, Walsh said he’s thrilled the topic is now on the radar of the CIO community and starting to show up in strategic business plans.
“AI is everyone’s favourite subject these days. It was pretty much my favourite subject since I was a young boy. I was reading too much science
fiction and dreaming about a future full of intelligent computers and robots.
“And that future seems to be arriving rather rapidly, so it’s great the rest of you are catching up to that dream I had as a young boy reading
people like Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov.”
Walsh said there are a number of reasons why AI is making progress today and happening at this point in history.
“AI is starting to invade our lives in some way, sometimes good and sometimes bad,” he said. “So why is it happening at this point in history?
Not ten years ago and not ten years in the future.”
He said the answer lies with four exponential trends. The first exponential trend is Moore’s Law, which is officially dead because of
technical issues like physical quantum limits.
“Intel has declared they are not going to double transistor count every two years going forward," he said.
“I’m not worried that’s going to hold back the field. Chip designers have been pretty lazy over the last 20 years. They have mostly been just
shrinking the 806 architecture.
"There has not been so much innovation in the design of chips and we’re starting to see that with DPUs. We’re going to see a lot more interesting
things in specialised hardware to do particular tasks like machine learning, which will give us more compute with the same transistor count.”
“Whilst Moore’s Law is technically dead, there’s enough innovation that’s going to happen that will give us ever-increasing compute power.”
The second exponential is the ever-escalating amount of data. “Corporations are discovering one of the most vital things they have in their
business is the data they have, about their operations, about their customers.
“The data that’s available has been doubling and that’s very useful for artificial intelligence because a lot of what we do these days, particularly
machine learning, is training on data,” he said.
But there’s one limitation worth pointing out about AI today, he noted, explaining machines are incredibly slow learners .
“Unlike humans, you can all learn from a single example. Machines and state-of-the-art machine learning still needs
hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions of examples to learn from," he said.
"But the good news is that that data is often being collected and we’re often having datasets that we can do that number from.”
The third exponential trend is the progress being made on the algorithmic front. “In the last few years, with things like deep learning, we’ve been
seeing in some cases exponential improvements in the performance of those algorithms.”
The fourth exponential trend is the amount of money flowing into the field, he noted.
“With this you can measure the amount of venture capital flowing into the field. You can see the activity, the amount of people, the number of
companies and the number of startups - all of these sorts of things have been doubling again every two years or so,” he said.
“Put those four things in a pot together and that is the recipe, largely speaking, for making significant progress.”
But while progress is being made, Walsh cautioned there’s still a long way to go before the industry can build machines
that can perform a broad set of tasks that humans can do.
“We can build narrow-focused tasks. We can teach them to do narrow-focused things like play Go, read x-rays, diagnose eye disease. So there’s
a lot we can do, but there’s a lot still we can’t do and a number of challenges.”
Given the ongoing limitations, he said AI today can do tasks that require a ‘moment’s thought.’
“You can recognise faces with a moment’s thought and that’s what we can teach computers to do. We can teach
computers to do it, but we should be very careful that when we do so, they may very well have the same biases that we have,” he said.
Rogue AI won’t cause extinction
Andrew J. Lohn 18, Ph.D. in electrical engineering, University of California Santa Cruz, engineer at the RAND
Corporation and a professor of public policy at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, et al., 4/30/18, “Will artificial
intelligence undermine nuclear stability?” https://thebulletin.org/2018/04/will-artificial-intelligence-undermine-
nuclear-stability/
A rtificial i ntelligence and nuclear war have been fiction clichés for decades. Today’s AI is impressive to be sure, but
specialized, and remains a far cry from computers that become self-aware and turn against their creators . At the same
time, popular culture does not do justice to the threats that modern AI indeed presents, such as its potential to make nuclear war more likely even
if it never exerts direct control over nuclear weapons.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the military significance of AI when he declared in September that the
country that leads in a rtificial i ntelligence will eventually rule the world. He may be the only leader to have put it so bluntly,
but other world powers appear to be thinking similarly. Both China and the U nited S tates have announced ambitious efforts to
harness AI for military applications, stoking fears of an incipient arms race.
In the same September speech, Putin said that AI comes with “colossal opportunities” as well as “threats that are difficult to predict.” The gravest
of those threats may involve nuclear stability—as we describe in a new RAND publication that outlines a few of the ways in which stability could
be strained.
Strategic stability exists when governments aren’t tempted to use nuclear threats or coercion against their
adversaries. It involves more than just maintaining a credible ability to retaliate after an enemy attack. In addition to that deterrent, nuclear
stability requires assurance and reassurance. When a nation extends a nuclear security guarantee to allies, the allies must be assured
that nukes will be launched in their defense even if the nation extending the guarantee must put its own cities at risk. Adversaries need to be
reassured that forces built up for deterrence and to protect allies will not be used without provocation. Deterrence, assurance, and reassurance are
often at odds with each other, making nuclear stability difficult to maintain even when governments have no interest in attacking each other.
In a world where increasing numbers of rival states are nuclear-armed, the situation becomes almost unmanageable. In the 1970s, four of the five
declared nuclear powers primarily targeted their weapons on the fifth, the Soviet Union (Beijing, after its 1969 border clashes with the Soviet
Union, feared Moscow much more than Washington). It was a relatively simple bilateral stand-off between the Bolsheviks and their many
adversaries. Today, nine nuclear powers are entangled in overlapping strategic rivalries—including Israel, which has not declared the nuclear
arsenal that it is widely believed to possess. While the United States, the United Kingdom, and France still worry about Russia, they also fret
about an increasingly potent China. Beijing’s rivals include not just the United States and Russia but India as well. India fears China too, but
primarily frets about Pakistan. And everyone is worried about North Korea.
In such a complex and dynamic environment, teams of strategists are required to navigate conflict situations—to
identify options and understand their ramifications. Could AI make this job easier? With AI now beating human professionals in the ancient
Chinese strategy game Go, as well as in games of bluffing such as poker, countries may be tempted to build machines that could
“sit” at the table amid nuclear conflicts and act as strategists.
A rtificially i ntelligent machines may prove to be less error-prone than humans in many contexts. But for tasks such
as navigating conflict situations, that moment is still far off in the future. Much effort must be expended before machines can
—or should—be relied on for consistent performance of the extraordinary task of helping the world avoid nuclear war. Recent research
suggests that it is surprisingly simple to trick an AI system into reaching incorrect conclusions when an adversary
gets to control some of the inputs, such as how a vehicle is painted before it is photographed.
1AR---AT: Impact Framing
Colonization isn’t a solution to extinction
Konrad Szocik 19, Assistant Professor of Philosophy at the University of Information Technology and
Management in Rzeszow, January 2019, “Should and could humans go to Mars? Yes, but not now and not in the
near future,” Futures, Vol. 105 p. 8-15
4. No rationale based on using space as a refuge
I argue, following other authors (Baum, 2009; Baum, Denkenberger, & Haqq-Misra, 2015;Jebari, 2015; Sandberg, Matheny, &Ćirković, 2008;
Turchin & Green, 2017) that human space settlement is not able to reduce and/or to exclude the risk of human extinction . For
it
this reason, it should not be perceived in terms of space refuge. In terms of both short-term and long-term perspectivesof risk assessment,
would be better to protect humans on Earth .5I reject the supportive role which could be played by human spacesettlement after a
catastrophe on Earth, i.e., a recovery coordination mission. Due to so-called the paradox of technological progress discussed in the
last section, further putative progress in space technology will be counterbalanced by increasing anthropogenic
risksincluding, among others, overpopulation and limited resources (these anthropogenic threats are unavoidable in near future, incontrast to
other risks that are only more or less probable but not unavoidable). Permanent lack of strong rationale for human missionto Mars–both now and
in the near future–leads to paradoxical situation. Even if in some point in the future the minimum level of advancement in human
deep-space technologies will be achieved, social, political, and economic contexts will gradually decrease the chances for
real preparation of this mission. Another paradox, let’s call it the risk dynamics paradox, is that the most probable threatsin the near future
are, asBostrom and Cirkovic (2008)argue, anthropogenic threats caused by civilizational and technologicalprogress. The paradox lies in the fact
that humans are not able to run from these kinds of risks that are rooted in their way of thinking, style of life, and
population dynamics, risks implied by Malthus’ law. The human species can try to protect against natural disaster
but not against deleterious effects of its own technological progress. In regard to possible future existential risks, I assume that
theirdeleterious power is a little bit exaggerated, and, in any event, human space settlement is not a right way to cope with
them.However, in any case, it is hard to speculate if any human space settlement must repeat the same path of human expansion as it wasthe
case on Earth. It is unclear if human technological expansion and exploration must always lead to deleterious and self-destructiveeffects. In this
paper, I do not discuss ethical and moral concerns which are traditionally considered when discussing the human place in space. They include
such topics as the human right to explore space (it means both right to intervene in any extraterrestrial object,and human duty and rationale for
space expansionism, mostly in the context of the idea of space refuge and possible catastrophicscenarios on Earth), or the value of human life and
space objects.
4.1. The philosophy of space refuge
Philosophers and space ethicists discuss the intrinsic value of Mars, and the human right to explore and to terraform Mars (Szociket al., in press
c). I take for granted following AndreasLosch (2019)that survival of the human species is high intrinsic value whichjustifies space exploration
and exploitation of space including terraforming and other activities expected to increase the survival ofhuman spaces. AsBaum et al.
(2015)argues, it is worth doing this to protect human civilization. This rationale of advocates of humanspace missions is counterbalanced by the
fact that real the existential risks are rather long-term. Earth still remains the unique humanhomeland, we are not multi-planetary species and this
is still well beyond our capacities. Any effort to settle lifeless space mustcompete with care for Earth (Reiman, 2009, p. 83). Treating human
space mission as a rescue mission sounds like a science-fictionstory given the limited technological capacities and the risk of this venture. Human
space settlement could work as space refugedesigned to support recovery of post-catastrophe Earth population. At best, space settlement would
be only a backup copy of primaryEarth civilization (Baum et al., 2015).
In addition to an evacuation scenario, there is a second scenario that partially overlaps with“evacuation”scenario but exploresthe concept of
humans as multi-planetary species. Humans should settle new place in space even if in fact future risks (epidemics,nuclear war, overpopulation,
limited resources, and/or environmental pollution)6are lethal only for some part of population.
The idea of space refuge is a vicious circle. Investing in space refuge involves time and effort needed for coping with
terrestrial risks. Public opinion may protest against space settlement program. Possible way to run away from the public opinion pressure is
atop-secret status of space refuge, which is whyBaum et al. (2015)discusses the importance of secrecy of this project. It seemsdoubtful that
human base on Mars could be kept in secret. A self-sustainable base in space requires afinancial effort that is in-comparable with previous space
activities including the ISS, human missions to the Moon, or current robotic missions. Inhabitants ofself-sustainable space refuge may be not
interested in taking a risk of reconstruction of post-catastrophe Earth which would beexpensive, dangerous, and inhibiting for the development of
the space refuge. The space refuge may be designed to become newhuman homeland or to be“only”additional human base with limited progress.
In both cases, crew of space refuge cannot be obligedneither forced to support Earth. In post-catastrophic Earth landscape, space refuge may be
better place to live. Reaction of itsinhabitants is not clear.
TonyMilligan (2011), p. 193) considers space resettlements as possible solution for demographic or climate problems. Milliganargues that space
settlement program should get priority as a program oriented in saving human species. Space settlement is not ableto solve anthropogenic
problems because space settlers will bring these problems to other planet. Even if Mars population will notreproduce (or will reproduce to low
extent needed for generational succession), overpopulation on Earth will not be inhibited bybuilding Mars settlement.
The concept of human species as endangered species is not in the center of scientific interests, asSandberg et al. (2008). This isinteresting social
fact mostly in regard to social sciences and humanities. In contrast to life scientists, philosophers do not needlaboratories neither extra funds to
think about future threats for human species. Despite this fact, a few philosophers and humanisticscholars consider this challenge. This tendency
is seen in small numbers of institutes such as The Future of Humanity Institute atUniversity of Oxford and academic journals asFuturesorBulletin
of the Atomic Scientistsdevoted to discuss these issues. Philosophersin general not only are not interested in future studies but they are focused
mostly on history of philosophy. This tendency is strongerin Europe than in the US. Despite historians, philosophers seem to be one of the
biggest groups which is focused on history. This lowinterest of scholars in future studies, mostly in sub-disciplines studying risks for humanity, is
at least partially affected by lack or lowawareness of dangers for human survival. Humans can be aware of existential risks for other animal
species but refer this tothemselves less often.Sandberg et al. (2008)note that, despite the fact that the probability of one extinction-level cataclysm
in-cluding asteroid impact or eruption of super volcano is very low, its lethal potential for humanity justifies anti-risk prevention policy.
4.2. Anthropogenic and exogenous risks
Possible risks include nuclear winter affected by nuclear wars, asteroid impact, eruption of super volcano (the former three riskshave the same
effect: inhibiting the sun light, decreasing temperature, and reducing or inhibiting food production),7epidemics,geoengineering failure,8biological
weapon, systemic failure (global electronic, internet, and satellite connection of the world andpossible global blackout), nanotechnology, and AI
catastrophes (Baum et al., 2015; see also: the list of the leading existential risks inFarquhar et al., 2017). This list should be extended to include
extensivefires which may be considered as a part of climate changerisk. Note that twofires in Portugal in 2017 emitted total heating 68 and 142
times bigger than nuclear bomb in Hiroshima (Ribau &Hernandez, 2018). The probabilities for these threats vary in regard to their short-term or
long-term perspectives, their reliability andfrequency. Some are based on the unpredictability of humans, as nuclear and biological weapons
attack. Other threats are un-predictable due to the current state of art, e.g. nanotechnology, AI, or bioengineering. Overpopulation and limited
resources arepredictable and unavoidable threats. To date, the most dangerous natural threat for survival of human species was the eruption
ofsuper volcano Toba around 75,000 years ago. There were 4000 survivors, including around 500 women in reproductive age(Rampino, 2008).
Similar deleterious effects of nuclear winter and global cooling of temperature might be caused by asteroid impact.The next natural catastrophe
on Earth may be fatally challenging due to human dependence on technology in food, water and energyresources.
Finally, if global technology collapses, human survival will be threatened even if relatively high number of individuals initiallysurvive. Economic
and social collapse may be greater than deleterious direct effects of natural disaster.
4.3. Demographic and biological challenges for human refuge in space
Baum et al. (2015)are concerned with capacity of crew refuge to deal with expected tasks–with their skills, psychological andphysiological well-
being after some catastrophe. The number of people designed to live in refuge matters genetically (founder effectand the risk of mutation in
small, isolated population). The number of astronauts planned forfirst human missions to Mars is small,very small. Mission planners do not treat
this mission in terms of long-term, space refuge-like mission, so they do not calculate thechallenge of human reproduction in space. Constraints
on human reproduction in space due to physiological deprivation are dis-cussed elsewhere (Szocik, Elias Marques et al., 2018).
Estimated minimal number of individuals needed for generational sequence and mission success in a hypothetical interplanetary6300 year
journey from Earth to Proxima Centauri b is calculated as 98 persons (Marin & Beluffi, 2018). But the“sufficient founderpopulation”will still
remain as a population challenge (Baum et al., 2015). According to Chris Impey, minimum viable population isestimated at 500 individuals
needed to avoid inbreeding, and 5000 to avoid extinction in long-term period (Impey, 2019).
Mission planners should also take into account genetic mutation risk. This challenge can be solved by relatively high number ofcrew or by
migrations and interactions between inhabitants of refuge and Earth. Mission planners may design the space mission toMars as a rescue mission
for Earth where there is a geneflow maintained between space refuge and Earth.
Sufficient biological variation may decline due to post-catastrophic deprivation of Earth population. Dependently on the kind ofcatastrophe, Earth
survivors are supposed to be modified in more or less extent due to nuclear explosion or other threats that affecthuman physiology. Social
engineering and rigorous sexual policy should be introduced to separate crew refuge from Earth popu-lation.
Mission planners may design another variant in which space base includes human reproduction. In this case (this is the casediscussed by Impey
but not by Baum et al.), minimum viable population is more important than in the case of reconstruction ofhuman population on post-catastrophe
Earth. In both scenarios, another important factor is at work.
Because discussed scenarios require advanced technology for space refuge and effective interplanetary transport, we may expectapplication of
substantial human enhancement practiced for interplanetary journeys (Zehr, 2018). The idea of human enhancementin Mars missions
may be used not only to cope with space environmental challenges including mostly altered gravity or cosmic raybut
also to improve physiological and psychological capacities of deep-space astronauts and, consequently, their
performance andeffectiveness of mission (Szocik, Campa, Rappaport, & Corbally, in press a; Szocik, Wójtowicz, Rappaport, &
Corbally, in press b).Consequently, it is possible that the current state of biological knowledge will not be (or will be only
partially) applied to enhanced humans living in space. CRISPR-Cas9 methods of genetic editing are just applied on Earth, and rapid
progress in applied geneticsconnected with progress in human moral thinking may open space for human enhancement in space refuge. Less
probable scenario ofdivergent evolution of humans living in space refuge and on Earth also should be considered, with all possible results
includingbiological (physical and biological supremacy of primary enhanced space settlers; however, living in space is deleterious for
phy-siology including, among others, immune system), cognitive, behavioral, or ethical effectsof divergent evolution within multi-planetary
human species.
4.4. Humans cannot survive by space missions
The“species-survival”argument for space exploration fails when cosmic threats are considered. When the Sun gets too
warm forlife on Earth, neither Earth nor Mars will be safe. Mars and Earth are both exposed to Cosmic Ray Bursts
emitted by neutron stars.Such emission could be responsible for mass extinction on Earth 570 mya (Dar, Laor, & Shaviv, 1998).
Asteroid impact rather does not have potential to destroy immediately the entire life on Earth but such impact initiates long-termdeleterious
perturbations in atmosphere (Napier, 2006;2015) including large scale biomass-burning (Wolbach et al., 2018). Greater risk is caused by
centaurs moving in the solar system from the trans-Neptunian regions. Humanity should focus its attention on moredistant
regions of the solar system (Ćirković& Vukotić, 2016;Napier, Asher, Bailey, & Steel, 2015).
Risk of asteroid impact is higher on Mars than on Earth. Unless humans are not able to travel beyond the solar
system, the betteranti-asteroid strategy is protection on Earth (Stoner, 2017, p. 340).K. SzocikFutures 105 (2019) 54–6659
4.5. There is no risk on Earth sufficient to justify the expense of a space refuge
Space refuge is justified only when there is at least one kind of catastrophe on Earth which will lead to extinction of the entirehuman
species.Baum (2015)and Baum et al. (2015)do not believe that space settlement offers advantage over terrestrial refuge. If terrestrial refuge
(aquatic and/or subterranean) is able to protect against the strongest catastrophes including asteroid impact, th eunique
serious rationale accepted by public opinion for space human mission fails. AsTurchin and Green (2017)show, aquatic
refuges based on adaptation of nuclear submarines may effectively play their role . They may be surface
independent, which is the basic criterion of any refuge (Baum et al., 2015). They are cheaper and easier in engineering
terms when compared with Mars settlement.
A space refuge would not be able to cope with currently-occurring risks, e.g. overpopulation and climate change.
Human overpopulation can be limited only on Earth by terrestrial policy and, if this can be done, no space base is
necessary. If it is not possible, then no space base can solve this problem. For example, space settlement is not able to
alleviate global warming, againstMilligan’s suggestion. The unique way to do that on Earth is to reduce methane emission
and/or to cool Earth by turning sunlight into space, as Solar Radiation Management proposes (Farquhar et al., 2017). There is only
indirect, not direct applicability of spaceexploration. For instance, space technology might be applied to cope with asteroid impact
or increasing the Sun temperature(Crawford). But these exogenous catastrophes caused by cosmic events are unlikely in
lifespan of current and future generations(Tegmark & Bostrom, 2005, p. 754), and for this reason they offer poor incentive
for human space program.
The unique rationale for space refuge mission could be future development of the Sun which will be getting more
and morewarmer in next billions years. But this threat does not justify human space settlement due to its high risk
and high costliness (Jebari,2015).
Nick Beckstead speculates on possible disasters on Earth deleterious also for humans living in shelters, e.g. scenarios that includeinvasion of
aliens, runaway AI, or ecophagy caused by nanotechnology (Beckstead, 2015).9Beckstead rightly adds that the bigchallenge is not only rate of
survival immediately after catastrophe but also chances for survival in long-term scale including collapsein food production and supply chain, and
associated social and political collapse. It is hard to imagine catastrophe which kills the entire Earth population excluding
people living in refuge. In this case, rationale for refuge fails.
2AC---Space Col Bad
Space colonization destroys the universe---war, government failure, super weapons, and
suicide cults
Phil Torres 18, director of the Project for Human Flourishing and the author of Morality, Foresight, and Human
Flourishing: An Introduction to Existential Risks, 5/23/18, “Why We Should Think Twice About Colonizing
Space”, http://nautil.us/blog/why-we-should-think-twice-about-colonizing-space
To be sure, humanity will eventually need to escape Earth to survive, since the sun will make the planet uninhabitable in about 1 billion years.
But for many “space expansionists,” escaping Earth is about much more than dodging the bullet of extinction: it’s about realizing
astronomical amounts of value by exploiting the universe’s vast resources to create something resembling utopia. For example, the
astrobiologist Milan Cirkovic calculates that some 1046 people per century could come into existence if we were to colonize our Local
Supercluster, Virgo. This leads Nick Bostrom to argue that failing to colonize space would be tragic because it would
mean that these potential “worthwhile lives” would never exist, and this would be morally bad.
But would these trillions of lives actually be worthwhile? Or would colonization of space lead to a dystopia?
In a recent article in Futures, which was inspired by political scientist Daniel Deudney’s forthcoming book Dark Skies, I decided to take a closer look at this question.
My conclusion is that in a colonized universe the probability of the annihilation of the human race could actually rise rather than
fall .
The argument is based on ideas from evolutionary biology and i nternational r elations theory, and it assumes that
there aren’t any other technologically advanced lifeforms capable of colonizing the universe (as a recent study suggests is
the case).
Consider what is likely to happen as humanity hops from Earth to Mars, and from Mars to relatively nearby, potentially
habitable exoplanets like Epsilon Eridani b, Gliese 674 b, and Gliese 581 d. Each of these planets has its own unique
environments that will drive Darwinian evolution , resulting in the emergence of novel species over time, just as species
that migrate to a new island will evolve different traits than their parent species. The same applies to the artificial environments of
spacecraft like “O’Neill Cylinders,” which are large cylindrical structures that rotate to produce artificial gravity. Insofar as future beings
satisfy the basic conditions of evolution by natural selection—such as differential reproduction, heritability, and variation of traits across the
population—then evolutionary pressures will yield new forms of life.
But the process of “cyborgization” —that is, of using technology to modify and enhance our bodies and brains—is much more likely
to influence the evolutionary trajectories of future populations living on exoplanets or in spacecraft. The result could
be beings with completely novel cognitive architectures (or mental abilities), emotional repertoires, physical capabilities, lifespans,
and so on.
In other words, naturalselection and cyborgization as humanity spreads throughout the cosmos will result in species
diversification . At the same time, expanding across space will also result in ideological diversification. Space-hopping
populations will create their own cultures, languages, governments, political institutions, religions, technologies, rituals, norms, worldviews, and
so on. As a result, different species will find it increasingly difficult over time to understand each other’s motivations ,
intentions , behaviors , decisions , and so on. It could even make communication between species with alien
languages almost impossible. Furthermore, some species might begin to wonder whether the proverbial “Other” is conscious. This matters
because if a species Y cannot consciously experience pain, then another species X might not feel morally obligated to care about Y. After all, we
don’t worry about kicking stones down the street because we don’t believe that rocks can feel pain. Thus, as I write in the paper, phylogenetic
and ideological diversification will engender a situation in which many species will be “not merely aliens to each
other but, more significantly, alienated from each other.”
But this yields some problems. First, extreme differences like those just listed will undercut trust between species. If you
don’t trust that your neighbor isn’t going to steal from, harm, or kill you, then you’re going to be suspicious of your neighbor. And if you’re
suspicious of your neighbor, you might want an effective defense strategy to stop an attack—just in case one were to happen. But your neighbor
might reason the same way: she’s not entirely sure that you won’t kill her, so she establishes a defense as well. The problem is that, since you
don’t fully trust her, you wonder whether her defense is actually part of an attack plan. So you start carrying a knife around with you, which she
interprets as a threat to her, thus leading her to buy a gun, and so on. Within the field of international relations, this is called the
“security
dilemma,” and it results in a spiral of militarization that can significantly increase the probability of conflict , even in
cases where all actors have genuinely peaceful intentions.
So, how can actors extricate themselves from the security dilemma if they can’t fully trust each other? On the level of individuals, one solution has involved what Thomas Hobbes’ calls the
“Leviathan.” The key idea is that people get together and say, “Look, since we can’t fully trust each other, let’s establish an independent governing system—a referee of sorts—that has a
monopoly on the legitimate use of force. By replacing anarchy with hierarchy, we can also replace the constant threat of harm with law and order.” Hobbes didn’t believe that this happened
historically, only that this predicament is what justifies the existence of the state. According to Steven Pinker, the Leviathan is a major reason that violence has declined in recent centuries.
The point is that if individuals—you and I—can overcome the constant threat of harm posed by our neighbors by establishing a governing
system, then maybe future species could get together and create some sort of cosmic governing system that could similarly guarantee peace
by replacing anarchy with hierarchy. Unfortunately, this looks unpromising within the “cosmopolitical” realm. One reason is that
for states to maintain law and order among their citizens, their various appendages—e.g., law enforcement, courts—need to be properly
coordinated. If you call the police about a robbery and they don’t show up for three weeks, then what’s the point of living in that society? You’d
be just as well off on your own! The question is, then, whether the appendages of a cosmic governing system could be sufficiently well-
coordinated to respond to conflicts and make top-down decisions about how to respond to particular situations. To put it differently: If conflict
were to break out in some region of the universe, could the relevant governing authorities respond soon enough for it to matter, for it to make a
difference?
Probably not, because of the immense vastness of space. For example, consider again Epsilon Eridani b, Gliese 674 b, and Gliese 581 d. These are, respectively, 10.5, 14.8, and 20.4 light-years
from Earth. This means that a signal sent as of this writing, in 2018, wouldn’t reach Gliese 581 d until 2038. A spaceship traveling at one-quarter the cosmic speed limit wouldn’t arrive until
2098, and a message to simply affirm that it had arrived safely wouldn’t return to Earth until 2118. And Gliese 581 is relatively close as far as exoplanets go. Just consider that he Andromeda
Galaxy is some 2.5 million light-years from Earth and the Triangulum Galaxy about 3 million light-years away. What’s more, there are some 54 galaxies in our Local Group, which is about 10
million light-years wide, within a universe that stretches some 93 billion light-years across.
These factsmake it look hopeless for a governing system to effectively coordinate law enforcement activities, judicial
decisions, and so on, across cosmic distances . The universe is simply too big for a government to establish law and order in a
top-down fashion.
But there is another strategy for achieving peace: Future civilizations could use a policy of deterrence to prevent other civilizations from launching first strikes. A policy of this sort, which must
be credible to work, says: “I won’t attack you first, but if you attack me first, I have the capabilities to destroy you in retaliation.” This was the predicament of the US and Soviet Union during the
Cold War, known as “mutually-assured destruction” (MAD).
But could this work in the cosmopolitical realm of space? It seems unlikely. First, consider how many future species there could be: upwards of
many billions. While some of these species would be too far away to pose a threat to each other—although see the qualification below—there
will nonetheless exist a huge number within one’s galactic backyard. The point is that the sheer number would make it incredibly hard to
determine who initiated a first strike, if one is attacked. And without a method for identifying instigators with high reliability, one’s
policy of deterrence won’t be credible. And if one’s policy of deterrence isn’t credible, then one has no such policy!
Second, ponder the sorts of weapons that could become available to future spacefaring civilizations. Redirected asteroids (a.k.a., “ planetoid
bombs ”), “rods from God,” sun guns , laser weapons , and no doubt an array of exceptionally powerful super-weapons that
we can’t currently imagine. It has even been speculated that the universe might exist in a “metastable” state and that a high-powered
particle accelerator could tip the universe into a more stable state. This would create a bubble of total annihilation that spreads in all
directions at the speed of light—which opens up the possibility that a suicidal cult , or whatever, weaponizes a particle
accelerator to destroy the universe.
The question, then, is whether defensive technologies could effectively neutralize such risks. There’s a lot to say here, but for the present
purposes just note that, historically speaking, defensive measures have very often lagged behind offensive measures, thus
resulting in periods of heightened vulnerability. This is an important point because when it comes to existentially dangerous
super-weapons, one only needs to be vulnerable for a short period to risk annihilation.
So far as I can tell, this seriously undercuts the credibility of policies of deterrence. Again, if species A cannot convince species B that if B strikes
it, A will launch an effective and devastating counter strike, then B may take a chance at attacking A. In fact, B does not need to be malicious to
do this: it only needs to worry that A might, at some point in the near- or long-term future, attack B, thus making it rational for B to launch a
preemptive strike (to eliminate the potential danger). Thinking about this predicament in the radically multi-polar conditions of space, it seems
fairly obvious that conflict will be extremely difficult to avoid.
1AR---War!---Planetoid bombs
Combatants will utilize asteroids---causes extinction
Clifford Singer 1, Professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament,
and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign. Spring 2001. “Swords and
Ploughshares.” http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/homepage_docs/pubs_docs/S&P_docs/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm
However the technology to build isolated extraterrestrial settlements naturally brings along with it another potentially
powerful technology–the ability to move sizeable asteroids . Back in 1979 it was shown that this is not as difficult as one might at first
think. The requisite technique is to land a spacecraft on one asteroid, dig up material and throw it the path of another
asteroid that will approach nearby, and perturb the orbit of that asteroid until it passes nearby another large object.
Once an asteroid or comet makes a controlled approach near any planet but Mercury or Pluto, then it can easily be
directed near or at the earth at enormous velocity. Fortunately for our hypothetical descendants here destroying all
human life on earth by asteroid impact would likely require moving objects with a diameter in excess of ten
kilometers. While there are many of these , the required orbit perturbation would require a lot of lead-time and work and could be very
difficult to motivate and conceal. Nevertheless with contributions from this technology a dispute between the earth and a
handful of its fragile far-flung offspring in space that is carried to the extreme could conceivably lead to human
extinction . Only when settlements in space are sufficiently numerous or far flung would such a possibility effectively be ruled out, primarily
by physical considerations.
1AR---War!---Space Col bad
War is likely regardless of actor motivations
Phil Torres 18, director of the Project for Human Flourishing and the author of Morality, Foresight, and Human
Flourishing: An Introduction to Existential Risks, 3/31/18, “Should Humanity Colonize Space?”,
https://medium.com/@philosophytorres/should-humanity-colonize-space-181ca78905fd
There are also biological and nanotech agents that civilizations could launch across the galaxy at each other, martial
von Newman probes that are aided by metamaterial invisibility cloaks , “heliobeams” that concentrate large amounts
of solar radiation on targets, and maybe even “gravity weapons” that use gravitational waves to create black holes
(a speculative idea that appears to fall within the realm of physical possibility). Even more, the universe is teaming with asteroids and
comets that could be catapulted toward planets or spaceships, with more destructive consequences than a swarm of
hydrogen bombs. Some have called these “planetoid bombs,” since asteroids and comets are “planetoids.”
We also shouldn’t overlook the possibility that future civilizations devise entirely novel “weapons of total destruction”
( WTDs ). Just as our Paleolithic ancestors would be dumbstruck by the extraordinary mechanisms of mass death
available to modern humans , so too might we be horrified by the weapons that our spacefaring children invent — say,
WTDs that move at close to lightspeed and wreak galactic- or cosmic-scale hazards.
The cherry on the cake is that even a perfectly peaceable civilization might
have strong incentives to obliterate its
neighbors. For example, imagine two civilizations with radically different political , cultural , and religious traditions .
They can’t even communicate very well because they speak entirely different languages and have evolved, through natural selection and
cyborgization, divergent emotional repertoires and mental categories. They have different internal models of the world, distinct
perceptual and phenomenological experiences, and incompatible “normative” worldviews.
Consequently, neither is able to trust the other. The result is that it would be rational for each to annihilate the other
merely to ensure that the other doesn’t annihilate one first. Worse, if a civilization X believes that a civilization Y is
rational, then X will believe that Y believes that it should annihilate X so that X doesn’t annihilate Y, since X
annihilating Y would be the rational thing to do. (Whew!) This line of reasoning provides X an even stronger reason to annihilate Y,
and therefore Y an even stronger reason to annihilate X — thus yielding a “spiral” of escalating tensions that ultimately
culminates in war , despite both X and Y wishing for peace. Scholars know this as the “Hobbesian trap.”
But civilizations may have an equally strong incentive to destroy their neighbors even if they believe that those
neighbors are irrational (rather than rational). For example, consider a civilization A that is full of irresponsible particle
physicists. Civilization A has no bad intentions, yet it conducts physics experiments that could inadvertently end the
universe. Another civilization B might try to reason with A not to conduct these experiments, but let’s imagine that
A ultimately resists. In order to save A from annihilating the universe by accident, B may thus opt to launch a
preemptive attack against A to avert a cosmic disaster.
Generalizing this case, since any given civilization will have some probability of accidentally destroying the universe , it
would be in every civilization’s self-interest to destroy everyone else merely to obviate accidental cosmic
calamities . This may be especially true if evolutionary adaptive radiation produces numerous species unable to fully
grasp each others’ intentions , cognitive abilities , or moral values . The possibilities for miscommunication here are
immense — and this should worry rather than reassure us.
Colonization cements collective identity problems---increases propensity for conflict
Marko Kovic 18, Social scientist (PhD in political communication, University of Zurich), co-founder and CEO of
the consulting firm ars cognitionis, co-founder and president of the thinktank ZIPAR, the Zurich Institute of Public
Affairs Research, 06/12/18, “Political, moral, and security challenges of space colonization.” ZIPAR.
https://zipar.org/discussion-paper/political-moral-security-challenges-space-colonization/
4.1 Inter-colonial war¶ Violence and war have been decreasing over the course of our civilization’s history45 46 47. The decrease in violent
armed conflict has coincided with an increase in cultural, political, and economic interconnectedness. Even though major armed conflicts are not
yet a thing of the past48, humankind will probably continue on its current trajectory of peace. With space colonization , however, the
trend of growing closer together might reverse because of increasing fragmentation , and with that reversal, peaceful
cooperation might again give way to armed conflict.
Some amount of human fragmentation due to space colonization is almost inevitable . One of the strongest biases we
humans have is the intergroup bias49: We tend to separate people into ingroups and outgroups , and we generally
favor our own ingroup over any outgroup. Our ingroup favoritism is often the source of collective identity : We
identify with our home city and think it is better than other cities; we identify with our favorite football team and think it is better than other
teams; we identify with our country of origin and think it is better than other countries. In a future in which humans have successfully mastered
type I colonization (colonization within our Solar System) and perhaps even type II colonization (intersolar colonization), belonging to one
habitat rather than another will almost certainly also be a source of collective identity . Humans born and raised on Venus
would probably have more positive general attitudes towards Venus than towards Earth. That is not a problem in and of itself, but it can become a
problem: If humankind is very successful at space colonization and manages to establish colonies across the galaxy, the ingroup dynamics within
the perceived benefits of armed conflict increase, and the perceived
colonies and regions of colonies might grow so much that
costs decrease. In part, this might be due to the infrahumanization (or dehumanization) bias50: Our intergroup bias
can have the effect of perceiving members of the outgroup as less human than members of our own ingroup.
The problem of intergroup bias and armed conflict could be compounded by real biological differences in the long-term
future . In the long term, different colonies of humans might adopt different stances on human enhancement technology
and embrace different kinds of enhancement technologies. These differential paths of human enhancement might
result in technology-induced quasi-speciation , whereby different strands of humans have increasingly distinct
biological traits . The ultimate result of such a development might be a strong fragmentation of humankind and an
increasing arms race in order to defend against the outgroup of all the (former) humans that are different from the
ingroup (former) humans51.
Space colonization causes war---social identity theory verifies the Torres argument
Martin Verloop 19, master of science at the University of Amsterdam, 6/19/19, “Space Colonization: The answer
to everything?”, https://www.spiegeloog.amsterdam/space-colonization-the-answer-to-everything/
Thus, a compelling argument can be made for venturing into the skies. Several private corporations, such as SpaceX for example, are looking into
setting up shop on Mars in the next few decades to ‘save humanity.’ Russia aims to establish a lunar outpost by 2030 (The Week, 2018). People
like Elon Musk appear to be in a rush to colonize space and he is not alone in arguing that there is a real urgency to do so. It is striking, however,
that we look for answers in the skies to save humanity instead of taking the time to self-reflect. In fact, Torres (2018a), a scholar specializing in
existential risk, argues that the chances of our species’ survival will fall rather than rise if we colonize space.
According to Torres, we
live in a Darwinian world in which ‘the mechanism of natural selection is constantly tweaking
the genomes of organisms to ensure a satisfactorily good “fit” between the “features” of organisms and the “factors”
of their environments’ (Torres, 2018b). Species that migrate to a new island will evolve into a novel species ( Torres,
2018a). Inhabitable planets are essentially islands in the sky that could potentially result in the evolution of species different from the parent
human species. Additionally, the possibilities that come with eventual future advances in bioengineering may speed up the
evolution process. Different modifications may be made to our bodies and brains across planets depending on what
enhancements are needed to adapt to the environment.
Although private corporations like SpaceX are already trying to establish human settlements on Mars, Cozmuta (2015) estimates that it will take
two to three hundred years before we are able to set up fully fledged colonies outside the bounds of Earth. According to anthropologist Cameron
Smith, it will take another two to three hundred years before we start to see ideological diversification (The Week, 2018). Due to isolation,
space colonies may develop vastly different cultures and languages. Even digital communication would prove to be
difficult with signals potentially taking years, if not decades, to arrive (Torres, 2018a). Thus, not only would colonizing space
result in the diversification of our species, difficulties arising from problems in communication could lead to ideological diversification as well.
Ideological diversification includes the emergence of ‘cultures, languages, governments, political institutions, religions, technologies, rituals,
norms, worldviews’ that may be unique to certain space colonies (Torres, 2018a). Prior to that, however, it is also interesting to think that already,
over the course of some generations, space colonies may want to sever their connections to Earth because they have different interests than Earth
does. A potential conflict of interests could even concern relatively minor matters like disagreements on taxes. We’ve already seen a
similar situation happen here on Earth when the United States, previously a colony of Great Britain, declared
independence because they wanted more economic independence and rejected the idea of ‘taxation without
representation’ (Phillips Erb, 2017).
Decolonization of space colonies could result in highly competitive interplanetary relations . It would be virtually
impossible to set up an interplanetary agency like the United Federation of Planets in Star Trek. The enormity of space would make
effective coordination of law enforcement activities incredibly hard (Torres, 2018a). It would also be difficult to
establish law and order by adopting a m utually a ssured d estruction policy . Such a policy might be successful if there were only a
few colonized planets. Essentially, we’d be looking at an an interplanetary Cold War here, which is ironic if you consider the fact the Space Race
started in an Earth-based Cold War. However, given the immensely high number of potential species, a mutually assured destruction policy may
not work either, because it would be extremely hard to detect who instigated an attack.
Torres (2018a, 2018b) bases his argument on evolutionary biology and international relations theory, but another argument can
potentially be drawn from psychological theory . Think of social identity theory , for example. According to this theory, in-
group members often differentiate themselves by using relevant out-groups as a means for evaluating the in-group as
positively different (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). It is interesting to speculate whether the theory would also generalize to interspecies relations. It
is conceivable that it would. In the case of highly competitive intergroup relations, individuals are likely to devaluate the
out-group. We might even see dehumanization , although that term specifically seems a bit odd to use in the case of the emergence of
novel species. Potentially,
the inability to understand the ‘Other’ due to species diversification may even amplify
‘dehumanization’ of the out-group. Then, what those who dared to dream have optimistically called the ‘final
frontier,’ may just turn into another frontier for war.
2AC---Aliens Turn
Colonization leads to the discovery of aliens---extinction!
Marko Kovic 18, Social scientist (PhD in political communication, University of Zurich), co-founder and CEO of
the consulting firm ars cognitionis, co-founder and president of the thinktank ZIPAR, the Zurich Institute of Public
Affairs Research, 06/12/18, “Political, moral, and security challenges of space colonization.” ZIPAR.
https://zipar.org/discussion-paper/political-moral-security-challenges-space-colonization/
4.2 Extraterrestrial (existential) risks¶ Space colonization will increase the probability of discovering and coming into contact
with extraterrestrial intelligence , either biological or artificial (in the sense of hypothetical advanced artificial general
intelligence52). That prospect poses some moral challenges, as argued in subsection 3.3. However, it might also pose a security
challenge if an extraterrestrial intelligence more technologically advanced than humankind has goals and
preferences that go against the goals and preferences of humankind.
In general, there are three categories of attitudes an extraterrestrial intelligence can have towards humankind53. First, an extraterrestrial
intelligence can be benevolent. A benevolent extraterrestrial intelligence is one that would change its goals and preferences upon learning of
humankind. Humankind is a benevolent intelligence: If we, for example, came into contact with an extraterrestrial civilization, we would
obviously take the goals and preferences of that civilization into account and update our own goals and preferences, since we are morally
advanced enough to do so.
Second, an extraterrestrial intelligence can be apathetic. An apathetic extraterrestrial intelligence is one that does not at all change its goals and
preferences upon learning of humankind. An apathetic intelligence would neither try to accommodate humankind, nor would it react in some non-
friendly way. It would not care at all. The attitude of an apathetic intelligence is similar to the attitude we humans have when it comes to some
random microbial life form on Earth: We might understand that that life form exists, but we do not care either way.
Third, an extraterrestrial intelligence can be hostile. Hostility in a general sense means that an intelligence reacts to
learning of humankind by regarding its own goals and preferences as categorically more important than
humankind’s. A hostile extraterrestrial intelligence is not necessarily a security threat to humankind; hostility in this context does not mean
hostility in the Hollywood kind but hostility in the sense of active disregard of humankind’s goals and preferences. That, however, might still
represent a tremendous security risk. For example, a hostile intelligence might prefer humankind not to exist because
our mere existence is perceived as a slight discomfort to the extraterrestrial intelligence. Hostile extraterrestrial
intelligence thus represents a form of existential risk.
1AR---Aliens---Timeframe
Outweighs on timeframe---the plan’s resource allocation causes contact in 20 years
Matthew John O'Dowd 15, associate professor in the Physics and Astronomy Department at the Lehman College
of the City University of New York and staff scientist at the American Museum of Natural History, 11/5/15, “Why
Haven't We Found Alien Life? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=cJONS7sqi0o
We don't have a telescope to find them yet, but we could soon. These planets will have atmospheres driven by
biotic processes . If we could analyze light passing through these atmospheres, we would see signatures of oxygen ,
ozone , methane , nitrous oxide at concentrations impossible without a biosphere. Properly fund NASA and its
terrestrial planet finder and we could find extraterrestrial life within 20 years . So it's entirely possible that we'll soon
discover that the galaxy is filled with life. But this just makes it weirder that the Milky Way isn't swarming with ancient alien
civilizations. There is a filter, but it's not the genesis of life. The clue might be that the Earth stayed a slimeball for nearly three billion years.
AT: No Aliens
Alien life exists---carbon dating and Earth’s own history prove
Matthew John O'Dowd 15, associate professor in the Physics and Astronomy Department at the Lehman College
of the City University of New York and staff scientist at the American Museum of Natural History, 11/5/15, “Why
Haven't We Found Alien Life? | Space Time | PBS Digital Studios”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=cJONS7sqi0o
Are we alone? Recent amazing discoveries have given us more hope than ever that our universe is full of life. So why
don't we see it? Why don't we see alien civilizations? We've asked this question before here on "Space Time," and if you haven't seen that
episode you should check it out. But today we'd like to go deeper because it really does seem like there should be aliens. The
Kepler Space Observatory has told us there are a couple of hundred billion nice, watery planets in the Milky Way
and probably billions of them are Earth-sized planets around sun-like stars. Many of them have been around long
enough to produce a civilization that could have easily colonized the entire galaxy by now. So why is the Milky Way so
un "Star Warsy?" This genuine oddity is referred to as the Fermi paradox and the resolution for it has to be that there's
some sort of great filter that either makes intelligent life extremely rare in the first place or that wipes out, essentially, all
advanced civilizations before they get to the galactic empire stage, whether by a nuclear war, environmental catastrophe, accidentally making a
black hole that swallows the planet, et cetera. Personally, I'm not buying it . I just don't think that there's an inevitable great filter
still ahead of us. As we saw in a previous episode, we're
not so far from building starships ourselves. Surely, some civilizations
must make it through these growing pains and manage to reach the stars. So where are they? Well, there's another deeply
sad and deeply inspiring possibility. Humanity may be one of the very first interstellar species in the history of the galaxy. But before we get all
emo, let's science this right. We know of exactly one instance of intelligent life happening, the case of Earth. And as if it wasn't hard enough to do
statistics with a sample size of one, we also have to deal with a massive selection bias. Of course we're going to observe at least one instance of
intelligent life happening because we are that one instance. In a way, it doesn't matter how improbable sentience is. As long as it happens once, it
will be there to observe itself. Here we're touching on the anthropic principle, which states that an observer will always observe a universe that
can make observers or a planet that can. We'll talk about the cosmic implications of this more in another episode, but for now we need to
acknowledge that this selection bias allows that life could be extremely rare, or even unique. Given that, can we even begin to assess the
likelihood of life out there? Yeah, we can science anything. So let's dig into whether we should really expect to see a Salarian Empire. Let's take
the knowns. Now, Earth certainly required a number of very special conditions to build life and it's hard to know how essential
each of these was or how frequently these conditions are met through the galaxy. I'm going to avoid details of the biology here because we can
say a lot just based on how much time it took to get through each step on the path to building technological life. We can crudely summarize
the big leaps that lead up to intelligent life as one, assembly of self replicating RNA from organic molecules; two,
RNA based proto-cells ; three, DNA and the first actual cell -- this is the moment of a biogenesis , life from not
life ; four, increasingly complex single cells; five, the first multicellular organisms so plants, animals, et cetera; and six,
the first intelligent life form capable of counting to six on You Tube. Now, the crazy thing, the thing that I find the least intuitive, is that
the first three steps in that chain combined-- the appearance of true cellular life-- happened faster than any of those later steps. so
fast, in fact, that it seems hard to believe. And in fact, so fast that our galaxy probably should be brimming with at least simple
life . Let me explain. See, around four billion years ago, pretty much just after the Earth had first cooled down from being a giant hellish magma
bowl, we think that it totally got pounded by a meteor storm that lasted a couple of hundred million years. This is the late heavy bombardment,
and it probably obliterated the surface. We think we know this because we flew to the moon and found evidence of it. Up until recently, the
earliest known evidence of life dated to roughly 3.5 billion years ago , fossilized blue green algae beds--
stromatolites -- found in Western Australia. The place was covered in this greenish-purple slime that reeked of rotten eggs. Yeah, the
beach was horrible back then. Basically, Earth was once a giant slimeball planet. And it looks like Earth went from magma ball to
slimeball in less than 300 million years . What? That seems crazy fast. But it also suggests that this first step, the genesis of
life , is not the great filter . But wait, the abiogenesis thing gets even weirder. See, nature has provided us with a perfect time
capsule for studying the very early Earth, zircons -- super hard silicate crystals whose formation can be dated precisely by
the ratio of decaying uranium versus lead decay product locked inside. And get this, just recently a zircon was found
containing the possible signature of life and dated at 4.1 billion years ago , from before the late heavy bombardment.
That little crystal contains what looks like biogenic carbon . That's a fancy way of saying there's too little carbon 13 compared to
carbon 12. See, photosynthetic finds C12 a bit yummier, and so it absorbs more of that than the heavier C13. Pretty much all carbon enters the
biosphere from the photosynthesizing bottom of the food chain. Any carbon that's been through living systems will have the same C13 light
isotopic ratio that we see in this zircon. Now, there are other nonbiogenic explanations, but this is extremely suggestive that life was
abundant on Earth remarkably soon after it first coalesced from stardust and that life either survived the late heavy
bombardment or formed again after that or the late heavy bombardment never happened. That's actually a possibility, too.
But either way, it looks like Earth became a slimeball teeming with life in a crazy short amount of time. How on earth did this happen?
Two options. One, given the right conditions the genesis of life happens like that, and two, it didn't happen on Earth--
life was seeded from space, an idea called panspermia . Look, there's no question that lots of rock gets ejected into space after
meteor impacts and can move between planets. We've found plenty of meteorites originally from Mars. A lot of the ejecta from Earth is going to
be swarming in bugs. Could similar bacterial astronauts have once survived an interstellar journey to Earth? Some
bacteria are certainly hardy enough to survive launch and landing. This has been tested. If these bacteria were
frozen solid, they could plausibly survive a very, very long journey and you only need one out of billions to make it .
Maybe the solar wind pushes infested material into interstellar space so that tens of thousands, even millions, of
years later a single bug winds up on a brand new planet and boom, instant slimeball. Questionable, but it would mean
that life only needs to evolve once from scratch in any given galaxy. Now, this should be very testable. Earth was infested fast,
so that means this stuff should be out there. Mars must have been hit when it had water. Did it go slimeball? There should be something like
stromatolite fossils on its ancient surface. We haven't seen them yet, but they'd be hard to spot. These cosmic cooties should be findable in space,
too. So either fast abiogenesis or panspermia , one of them must be true. However, both suggest that the galaxy should be
teeming with slimeball planets filled with life . Now, that's exciting. We don't have a telescope to find them yet, but we could soon. These
planets will have atmospheres driven by biotic processes. If we could analyze light passing through these atmospheres, we would see signatures
of oxygen, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide at concentrations impossible without a biosphere. Properly fund NASA and its terrestrial planet finder
and we could find extraterrestrial life within 20 years. So it's entirely possible that we'll soon discover that the galaxy is filled with life. But this
just makes it weirder that the Milky Way isn't swarming with ancient alien civilizations. There is a filter, but it's not the genesis of life. The clue
might be that the Earth stayed a slimeball for nearly three billion years. The first multicellular organism turned up only 600 to 800
million years ago and life as we know it quickly exploded after that. Was this a random lucky event that we just had to wait for?
No , multicellular life evolved independently dozens of times . It just took a really long time for those single cells to become
complex enough to form large collaborative structures capable of collective reproduction, i.e. plants, animals, a species capable of making the
Kerbal Space Program. And speaking of space programs, technological life took a little while longer, but not really so long on the overall scale
once we had complex life. After the Cambrian Explosion, it was only around half a billion years to go from jellyfish to moon landing. Of course,
maybe the emergence of intelligence is a random and unlikely event, and this one is the hardest to assess. However, it's
worth noting that we do have other species on Earth that seem to be moving down the same big brain path
independently of humans.
We haven’t found aliens because we haven’t looked for them
Dave Mosher 18, senior correspondent for business insider, 10/9/18, “Smart aliens might live within 33,000 light-
years of Earth. A new study explains why we haven't found them yet.”, https://www.businessinsider.com/alien-
signals-search-for-extraterrestrial-intelligence-study-2018-10
The cosmos almost screams with the possibility of intelligent alien life. ¶ Hundreds of billions of galaxies drift through
the visible universe , each one harboring hundreds of billions of stars , and each of those stars in turn shelters roughly
a handful of planets. Even if the trillion-or-so planets in every galaxy aren't habitable , countless water-rich moons
orbiting these lifeless worlds might be.¶ And yet, in spite of these numbers, humans have yet to identify any signals
from intelligent aliens. The prescient question that the physicist Enrico Fermi posed in 1950 — "Where is
everybody?" — remains unanswered.¶ However, a study in The Astronomical Journal, which we learned about from MIT
Technology Review, suggests humanity has barely sampled the skies and thus has no grounds to be cynical .¶ According to
the paper, all searches for extraterrestrial intelligence, or SETI, have examined barely a swimming pool's worth of
water from a figurative ocean of signal space. ¶ "We haven't really looked much," Shubham Kanodia, a graduate student in astronomy
who cowrote the study, said during a NASA "technosignatures" workshop in Houston on September 26.¶ The study suggests that
somewhere in that ocean of space — right now, within the Milky Way galaxy— intelligent aliens may be saying,
"Hello, we are here."¶ But we'd have no way of knowing, at least not yet.¶ Defining a 'cosmic haystack' in the search for aliens¶
Over the past 60 years, multiple SETI projects have looked and continue to look for alien signals. Some scan large swaths of the sky for powerful
signals, while others target individual star systems for weaker signals.¶ Yet aside from a few anomaly signals that never repeated (like the
"Wow!" detection of 1977), these searches have turned up empty-handed.¶ Kanodia and his colleagues at Penn State University
wanted to know how much of the figurative "cosmic haystack" SETI projects had covered and to what extent they
could improve the hunt for the alien "needle."¶ The group agrees with the well-known SETI astronomer Jill Tarter, who said in 2010
that it was silly to conclude intelligent aliens do not exist nearby just because we haven't yet found their beacons.
Even if such signals exist and are aimed right at Earth, her thinking goes, we've scanned so little of the sky and may
not be looking for the right type of signal, or for long enough, to find them.¶ "Suppose I tell you there's a cool thing
happening in Houston right now," Kanodia said during his NASA talk. "I do not tell you where it is. I do not tell you
when it is happening. I do not tell you what it is. Is it in a bookstore? Is it a music concert? I give you absolutely no
priors. It would be a difficult thing to try and find it."¶ He added: "Houston, we have a problem. We do not know what we're looking
for ... and we don't know where to start."¶ In their study, Kanodia and his colleagues built a mathematical model of what
they considered a reasonable-size cosmic haystack.¶ Their haystack is a sphere of space nearly 33,000 light-years in
diameter, centered on Earth. This region captures part of Milky Way's bustling core as well as some giant globular
clusters of stars above and below our home galaxy.¶ They also picked eight dimensions of a search for aliens —
factors like signal transmission frequency , bandwidth , power , location , repetition , polarization , and modulation
(i.e., complexity) — and defined reasonable limits for each one.¶ "This leads to a total 8D haystack volume of 6.4 × 10 116 m 5 Hz 2
s/W," the authors wrote.¶ That is 6.4 followed by 115 zeros — as MIT Technology Review described it, "a space of truly gargantuan
proportions."¶ How much of this haystack have we searched?¶ Kanodia and his colleagues then examined the past 60 years' worth of
SETI projects and reconciled them against their haystack.¶ The researchers determined that humanity's collective search for
Green New Deal solves climate change better than degrowth AND boosts the economy---
mutually exclusive with degrowth
Robert Pollin 18, Professor of Economics and Co-Director of the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) at
the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, 2018, “DE-GROWTH VS A GREEN NEW DEAL,” New Left Review,
https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii112/articles/robert-pollin-de-growth-vs-a-green-new-deal
Job creation and a just transition
Countries at all levels of development will experience significant gains in job creation through clean-energy
investments relative to maintaining their existing fossil-fuel infrastructure . Our research at the Political Economy Research
Institute, cited below, has found this relationship to hold in Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea,
Spain and the United States. For a given level of spending, the percentage increases in job creation range from about 75 per cent in Brazil to 350
per cent in Indonesia. For India, as a specific example, we found that increasing clean-energy investments by 1.5 per cent of
gdp every year for twenty years will generate a net increase of about 10 million jobs per year. This is after factoring in job
losses resulting from retrenchments in the country’s fossil-fuel industries. There is no guarantee that the jobs being generated through clean-
energy investments will provide decent compensation to workers. Nor will they necessarily deliver improved workplace conditions, stronger
union representation or reduced employment discrimination against women, minorities or other under-represented groups. But the fact that new
investments will be occurring will create increased leverage for political mobilization across the board—for improving job quality, expanded
union coverage and more jobs for under-represented groups.
At the same time, workers and communities throughout the world whose livelihoods depend on oil, coal and natural
gas will lose out in the clean-energy transition. In order for the global clean energy project to succeed, it must
provide adequate transitional support for these workers and communities. Brian Callaci and I have developed a ‘just
transition’ policy framework in some detail for the us economy; and Heidi Garrett-Peltier, Jeannette Wicks-Lim and I have developed
more detailed approaches around these issues for the us states of New York and Washington.footnote19 Considering the us as a whole, Callaci
and I estimate that a rough high-end cost for such a programme is a relatively modest $600 million per year, which is
less than 0.2 per cent of the 2018 us Federal budget. This level of funding would provide strong support in three
areas: income , retraining and relocation support for workers facing retrenchments; guaranteeing the pensions for
workers in the affected industries; and mounting effective transition programmes for what are now fossil-fuel
dependent communities. Comparable programmes will need to be implemented in other country settings.
Industrial policies and ownership forms
Increasing clean-energy investment by 1.5 per cent of global gdp will not happen without strong industrial policies . Even though, for
example, energy-efficiency investments generally pay for themselves over three to five years, and the average costs of producing renewable
energy are at rough parity with fossil fuels, it is still the case that some entities—public enterprises, private firms or a combination of both—will
have to advance the initial capital and bear the project risk. Depending on specific conditions within each country, industrial policies will be
needed to promote technical innovation and, more broadly, adaptations of existing clean-energy tech nology. Governments will
need to deploy a combination of policy instruments, including r esearch a n d d evelopment support, preferential tax
treatment for clean-energy investments and stable long-term market arrangements through government-procurement
contracts. Clean-energy industrial policies also need to include emission standards for utilities and transport, and
price regulation for both fossil fuel and clean energy. The widely discussed tool of pricing carbon emissions through
either a carbon tax or a cap on permissible emissions certainly needs to be a major component of the overall
industrial-policy mix. A carbon tax in particular can raise large amounts of revenue that can then be used to help finance clean-
energy investments as well as redistributing funds to lower-income households. Germany’s experience of financing is
valuable here, since it has been the most successful advanced economy in developing its clean-energy economy. According to the International
Energy Agency, a major factor in Germany’s success is that its state-owned development bank, kfw, ‘plays a crucial role by providing loans and
subsidies for investment in energy efficiency measures in buildings and industry, which have leveraged significant private funds.’footnote20 This
Germany development banking approach could be adapted throughout the world.
Another critical measure in supporting clean-energy investments at 1.5 per cent of annual global gdp will be to lower the profitability
requirements for these investments. This in turn raises the issue of ownership of newly created energy enterprises and assets. Specifically: how
might alternative ownership forms—including public ownership, community ownership and small-scale private companies—play a role in
advancing the clean-energy investment agenda? Throughout the world, the energy sector has long operated under a variety of ownership
structures, including public or municipal ownership, and forms of private cooperative ownership as well as private corporations. Indeed, in the oil
and natural-gas industry, publicly owned national companies control approximately 90 per cent of the world’s reserves and 75 per cent of
production, as well as many of the oil and gas infrastructure systems. These national corporations include Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, China
National Petroleum Corporation, the National Iranian Oil Company, Petroleos de Venezuela, Petrobras in Brazil and Petronas in Malaysia. There
is no evidence to suggest that these publicly owned companies are likely to be more supportive of a clean-energy transition than the private
corporations. National development projects, lucrative careers and political power all depend on continuing the flow of fossil-fuel revenues. In
and of itself, public ownership is not a solution.
Clean-energy investments will nevertheless create major new opportunities for alternative ownership forms, including various combinations of
smaller-scale public, private and cooperative ownership. For example, community-based wind farms have been highly successful for nearly two
decades in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the uk. A major reason for their success is that they operate with lower profit requirements than
large-scale private corporations. On this point, my Green New Deal perspective converges with positions supported by degrowth proponents. For
example, Juliet Schor describes in True Wealth (2011) what she calls ‘a prima facie case that the emerging green sector will be powered by small
and medium-size firms, with their agility, dynamism and entrepreneurial determination’. Over time, Schor writes, ‘these entities can become a
sizeable sector of low-impact enterprises, which form the basis of animated local communities and provide livelihood on a wide scale.’footnote
It is one thing to conclude that all countries—or at least those countries with either large gdps or populations—should invest about 1.5 per cent of
gdp per year in energy efficiency and clean renewable investments. But it is another matter to determine what standard of fairness should be
applied in allocating the costs of such investments among the various people, countries and regions of the globe. What would be a fair procedure?
If the global clean-energy investment project sketched here is successful, average per capita co2 emissions will fall within twenty years from its
current level of 4.6 tons to 2.3 tons. This corresponds to a fall in total emissions from 32 to 20 billion tons. Still, at the end of this 20-year
investment cycle, average us emissions will be 5.8 tons per capita, nearly three times the averages for China and the world as a whole, and five
times the average for India. At a basic level, this is unfair—particularly given that, over the past century of the fossil-fuel era, us emissions have
exceeded those in India and China combined by around 400 per cent. As a standard of fairness, one could, with good reason, insist that the United
States and other rich countries be required to bring down per capita co2 emissions to the same level as low-income countries. We could also insist
that high-income people—regardless of their countries of residence—be permitted to produce no more co2 emissions than anyone else.
There is a solid ethical case for such measures. But there is absolutely no chance that they will be implemented. Given the climate-stabilization
imperative facing the global economy, we do not have the luxury to waste time on huge global efforts fighting for unattainable goals. Consider
the us case: on grounds of both ethics and realism, it will be much more constructive to require that, in addition to bringing its own emissions
down to about 6 tons per capita within twenty years, the
us should also provide large-scale assistance to other countries in
financing and bringing to scale their own transformative clean-energy projects.
Problems with degrowth
As I emphasized at the outset, degrowth proponents have made valuable contributions in addressing many of the untenable features of economic
growth. But
on the specific issue of climate change, degrowth does not provide anything like a viable stabilization
framework . Consider some very simple arithmetic. Following the ipcc, we know that global co2 emissions need to fall from their current level
of 32 billion tons to 20 billion tons within twenty years. If we assume that, following a degrowth agenda, global gdp contracts by 10 per cent over
the next two decades, that would entail a reduction of global gdp four times greater than during the 2007–09 financial crisis and Great Recession.
In terms of co2 emissions, the net effect of this 10 per cent gdp contraction, considered on its own, would be to push emissions down by precisely
10 per cent—that is, from 32 to 29 billion tons. It would not come close to bringing emissions down to 20 billion tons by 2040.
Clearly then, even under a degrowth scenario, the overwhelming factor pushing emissions down will not be a
contraction of overall gdp but massive growth in energy efficiency and clean renewable-energy investments—
which, for accounting purposes, will contribute towards increasing gdp —along with similarly dramatic cuts in fossil-fuel production
and consumption, which will register as reducing gdp. Moreover, the immediate effect of any global gdp contraction would be
huge job losses and declining living standards for working people and the poor. During the Great Recession, global
unemployment rose by over 30 million. I have not seen a convincing argument from a degrowth advocate as to how we could avoid a severe rise
in mass unemployment if gdp were to fall by twice as much.
These fundamental problems with degrowth are illustrated by the case of Japan, which has been a slow-growing economy for a generation now,
even while maintaining high per capita incomes. Herman Daly himself describes Japan as being ‘halfway to becoming a steady-state economy
already, whether they call it that or not.’footnote22 Daly is referring to the fact that, between 1996 and 2015, gdp growth in Japan averaged an
anemic 0.7 per cent per year. This compares with an average Japanese growth rate of 4.8 per cent per year for the 30-year period 1966 to 1995.
Nevertheless, as of 2017, Japan remained in the ranks of the large, upper-income economies, with average gdp per capita at about $40,000. Yet
despite the fact that Japan has been close to a no-growth economy for twenty years, its co2 emissions remain among the highest in the world, at
9.5 tons per capita. This is 40 per cent below the figure for the United States, but it is four times higher than the average global level of 2.5 tons
per capita that must be achieved if global emissions are to drop by 40 per cent by 2040. Moreover, Japan’s per capita emissions have not fallen at
all since the mid-1990s. The reason is straightforward: as of 2015, 92 per cent of Japan’s total energy consumption comes
from burning oil, coal and natural gas.
Thus, despite ‘being halfway to becoming a steady-state economy’, Japan has accomplished virtually nothing in
advancing a viable climate-stabilization path. The only way it will make progress is to replace its existing, predominantly fossil-fuel
energy system with a clean-energy infrastructure. At present, hydro power supplies 5 per cent of Japan’s total energy needs, and other renewable
sources only 3 per cent. Overall then, like all large economies—whether they are growing rapidly or not at all—Japan needs to embrace the
Green New Deal.
A green great depression?
The majority of degrowth proponents pay almost no attention to emission levels. Thus the introduction to a special issue of Ecological Economics
focused on degrowth, edited by leading contemporary degrowthers Giorgos Kallis, Christian Kerschner and Joan Martinez-Alier, devoted
precisely one paragraph to the issue. This described a proposal for ‘cap-and-share’ which, the authors explained, would involve placing ‘a
declining annual global cap on the tonnage of co2 emitted by fossil fuels’ and ‘allocating a large part of each year’s tonnage to everyone in the
world on an equal per capita basis’.footnote23 Kallis, Kerschner and Martinez-Alier recognize that the political economy of such a proposal
would be highly complex; but they do not take it upon themselves to examine any of these complexities. In the same issue of Ecological
Economics Peter Victor, author of Managing without Growth (2008), did develop a series of models for evaluating the relationship between
economic growth and co2 emissions for the Canadian economy. Under Victor’s baseline scenario, Canadian gdp would grow by an average of 2.3
per cent between 2005 and 2035, resulting in a doubling of per capita gdp, while co2 emissions would rise by 77 per cent. Victor then presented
both low-growth and degrowth scenarios for the same period. He reports that, under degrowth, greenhouse-gas emissions would fall by 88 per
cent, relative to the 2035 ‘business-as-usual’ growth scenario. But he also concludes that Canada’s per capita gdp under degrowth would fall to
26 per cent of the business-as-usual scenario by 2035.footnote
Victor does not flesh out his results with actual data on the Canadian economy, but it is illuminating to do so. In 2005, Canada’s per capita gdp
was $53,336 (expressed in 2018 Canadian dollars). Thus, under the business-as-usual scenario, per capita gdp rises to about $107,000 as of 2035.
Alternatively, under the degrowth scenario, Canada’s per capita gdp in 2035 would plummet to $28,000. This per capita gdp level for 2035 is
48 per cent below Canada’s actual per capita gdp for 2005. In other words, under Victor’s degrowth scenario, the emissions reduction achieved
over a 30-year period would be only modestly greater than what would be achieved under a clean-energy investment programme at 1.5 per cent
of annual gdp, but with this fundamental difference: under the clean-energy investment project, average incomes would roughly double, while
under degrowth, average incomes would experience a historically unprecedented collapse. Victor doesn’t ask whether an economic depression of
this magnitude under degrowth, in Canada or elsewhere, is either economically or politically viable. He doesn’t examine what impact this loss
of gdp would have in funding for health care, education or, for that matter, environmental protection . Nor does he
explain what policy tools would be deployed to force Canada’s gdp to halve within thirty years. Victor’s article is further remarkable in that, in an
analysis focused on the relationship between economic growth and climate change, it includes only one brief mention of renewable energy and no
reference whatsoever to energy efficiency.
Perhaps the most influential contemporary discussion on the economics of climate change and degrowth is Tim Jackson’s Prosperity without
Growth.footnote25 Jackson begins by emphasizing that a viable climate-stabilization path requires absolute decoupling between growth and
emissions on a global scale, not merely relative decoupling. This point is indisputable. Jackson then reviews data for 1965–2015, showing that
absolute decoupling has not occurred either at a global level or among, respectively, low-, middle- or high-income countries. Again, there is no
disputing this evidence—although, as noted above, several individual countries did achieve absolute decoupling between gdp growth and co2
emissions for 2000–14. In fact, there are only two major issues to debate with Jackson. The first is whether absolute decoupling is a realistic
possibility, moving forward. Jackson is dubious, writing that ‘the evidence that decoupling offers a coherent escape from the dilemma of growth
is, ultimately, far from convincing. The speed at which resource and emissions efficiencies have to improve if we are going to meet carbon targets
are at best heroic, if the economy is growing relentlessly.’footnote26
But is it really the case that absolute decoupling requires ‘heroic’ advances in building a clean-energy economy? It is true that absolute
decoupling on a global scale is a highly challenging project. But we can be fairly precise in measuring the
magnitude of the challenge. As discussed above, it will require an investment level in clean renewables and energy
efficiency at about 1.5–2 per cent of global gdp annually. This amounts to about $1 trillion at today’s global
economy level and $1.5 trillion average over the next twenty years. These are large but realistic investment goals
which could be embraced by economies at all levels of development , in every region of the globe. One reason why this is
a realistic project is that it would support rising average living standards and expanding job opportunities, in low-
income countries in particular. For nearly forty years now, the gains from economic growth have persistently favoured the rich.
Nevertheless, the prospects for reversing inequality in all countries will be far greater when the overall economy is growing than when the rich
are fighting everyone else for shares of a shrinking pie. How sanguine, for example, would we expect affluent Canadians to be over the prospect
of their incomes being cut by half or more in absolute dollars over the next thirty years? In political terms , the attempt to implement a
degrowth agenda would render the global clean-energy project utterly unrealistic .
The second issue to raise with Jackson is still more to the point: does degrowth offer a viable alternative to absolute decoupling
as a climate-stabilization project? As we have seen, the answer is ‘No.’ Jackson himself provides no substantive discussion to
demonstrate otherwise. Indeed, on the issue of climate stabilization, Jackson offers no basis for disputing Herman Daly’s charactization of
degrowth as a slogan in search of a programme. Overall, then, if the left is serious about mounting a viable, global, climate-
stabilization project, it should not be losing time seeking to build an all-purpose, broad-brush degrowth movement—
which, for the reasons outlined, cannot succeed in actually stabilizing the climate . This is even more emphatically
the case when a fair and workable approach to climate stabilization lies right before us, by way of the Green
New Deal .
A. Neg Ground---the rez allows infinite protection mech’s for any possible water
source---States is a necessary check on small, unbeatable affs
2. Defense:
A. Reciprocal---the federal government is an assemblage of branches and actors---no
one actor controls it
B. Predictable---test’s “it’s” in the resolution
C. Federalism advantages solve aff ground
Space CP
1NC---Space CP
CP Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase mining of
coal for use in outer-space exploration.
HOW EARTH LAW STRENGTHENS THE MOVE AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS
Extractive industries have treated nature as limitless property and resource. Only now we are finding out that there are limits,
both to what we can extract as well as what natural ecosystems will bear. Earth Law is the idea that ecosystems have the right to
exist , thrive, and evolve—and that Nature should be able to defend its rights in court, just like people can.
Earth Law gives ecosystems the same rights as people and corporations . This means that people can defend an
ecosystem’s rights in court without having to prove that their own human rights were violated. Under Earth Law, courts
assess monetary awards by looking at the cost of restoring ecosystems to their undamaged natural state. This allows for the defense of Nature in
the courts—not only for the benefit of people, but also for the sake of Nature itself.
As countries and people begin more and more to pursue decarbonization, Earth Law can strengthen and connect people and organizations
working to create a healthier environment. Through Earth Law, people could better hold their governments and companies in
society accountable for their use of fossil fuels, and could urge them to decarbonize and reduce greenhouse gas
emissions through banning fossil fuels. Earth Law can be a framework for countries, businesses and people as they work toward a ban on
the burning and extraction of fossil fuels.
Increasing coal mining is mutually exclusive with the plan---River rights require banning
coal mining because it heavily pollutes waterways---that’s Bellan
{Smith 18, Econ link also says this}
Huge barriers prevent life, even in Earth-like conditions. It’s most likely we’re alone.
Dr. Ethan Siegel 19, Professor at Lewis & Clark College, Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from the University of
Florida, Post-Doc at the University of Arizona, Senior Contributor at Forbes Magazine, Columnist for NASA’s ‘The
Space Place’, “What If It's Just Us?”, Forbes, 4-3, https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2019/04/03/what-
if-its-just-us/#147a88f37d3c
A substantial fraction of stars out there (around 20%) are either K-, G-, or F-class stars, too: Sun-like in mass, luminosity, and lifetime. Putting all
these numbers together, there are around 10^22 potentially Earth-like planets out there in the Universe, with the right
conditions for life on them. In our Milky Way alone, there may be billions of planets with Earth-like chances for life.
Most of the planets we know of that are comparable to Earth in size have been found around cooler, smaller stars than the Sun. This makes sense
with the limits of our instruments; these systems have larger planet-to-star size ratios than our Earth does with respect to the Sun.
But knowing there's a bird in the bush is not the same as having one in your hand. Similarly, having a planet with the
raw ingredients for life and similar conditions to what we had in the early days of Earth doesn't necessarily
guarantee that life will arise on such a planet. Even if life does arise, what are the odds that it will persist , thrive,
and become complex and differentiated? And beyond that, how often does it become intelligent and then
technologically advanced ?
Given all the events and circumstances that have transpired over the past 4.5 billion years — including the evolutionary twists and turns that
occurred as the result of seemingly random processes — it's safe to say that the exact way life unfolded on Earth is cosmologically
unique . But what about life, complex life, or technologically advanced life at all?
The crashed X-Files' alien spaceship, used as a promo for season 10 of the show, represents our hopes and fears concerning making contact with
an intelligent alien species. But we have no evidence for their existence, thus far, anywhere in the galaxy or Universe.
If we demand that we be scientifically honest and scrupulous, and look at the evidence without judgment in either optimistic or
pessimistic directions, this is truly the limit of what we can say as far as the odds of life elsewhere are concerned. Our hopes and fears
about the existence of aliens, of being cosmically alone, or any other point on the spectrum of possibilities have no decisive evidence to support
or refute them.
While it may be exciting to speculate about thousands of spacefaring civilizations in the Milky Way right now, or intelligent aliens
modifying their cosmic backyard or deliberately hiding from Earth, there is simply no evidence for this. Hypothesizing a slew of
possibilities that haven't been ruled out might be a clever exercise that will someday lead to greater knowledge, but we can say nothing definitive
about them today.
Atoms can link up to form molecules, including organic molecules and biological processes, in interstellar space as well as on planets. If the
ingredients for life are everywhere, then life may be ubiquitous, too. It was all seeded by prior generations of stars.
All we know is that, if
a planet was formed similar to Earth in the distant past, there are three big steps that must have
occurred in order to get a recognizably advanced civilization like our own.
1. Life must have somehow arisen from non-life. This is the problem of abiogenesis, or the origin of life from nonliving
precursor molecules. To go from the raw ingredients associated with organic processes to something that's classified as life, which means it has a
metabolism, responds to external stimuli, grows, adapts, evolves, and reproduces, is the first big step.
It occurred at least once, more than 4 billion years ago, on our world. Has it occurred elsewhere in our Solar System? In our galaxy? In
the Universe? We have no idea how frequently, out of the multibillion planetary candidates in our galaxy or out of the 10^22
candidates in the visible Universe, this may have occurred.
Both reflected sunlight on a planet and absorbed sunlight filtered through an atmosphere are two techniques humanity is presently developing to
measure the atmospheric content and surface properties of distant worlds. In the future, this could include the search for organic signatures as
well, and might potentially reveal a surefire sign of an inhabited planet.
2. Life must have thrived and evolved to become multicellular, complex, and differentiated. For billions of years , life
on Earth was single-celled and relatively simple, with copying errors from one generation to the next providing the overwhelming amount
of variation in organisms. Wherever resources abound, the simplest organisms to first make use of them fill that ecological niche. Under most
circumstances, they find a way to persist.
It's only when something changes, such as resource availability, the survivability of the environment, or from competition, that extinctions occur,
leaving open the possibility for a new organism to rise to prominence. Extinction events and selection pressures gave rise to many critical
evolutionary steps on Earth: DNA absorption, eukaryotic organisms, multicellularity, and sexual reproduction, among others. This could be
an inevitable occurrence on a planet with life, or it could be an ultra-rare event that happened to take place many times on Earth. We don't
know.
Alan Chinchar's 1991 rendition of the proposed Space Station Freedom in orbit. Any civilization that creates something like this would definitely
count as scientifically/technologically advanced, but inferring their existence is no more than wishful thinking at this point.
3. Intelligent life must have evolved , with the right traits to also become a technologically advanced civilization.
This may be the step with the greatest uncertainty of all. It's been over 500 million years since the Cambrian
explosion, and it's only over the past few hundred years that life on Earth has achieved the technologically advanced
state that an extraterrestrial observer would recognize as a sign of intelligent life.
We can broadcast our presence to the Universe; we can reach out beyond our home world with space probes and crewed space programs; we can
look and listen for other forms of intelligence in the Universe. But we have no known instances of success on this front in our Universe beyond
our own planet. Life like us could be common, or we
could be the only example within the limits of our observable Universe.
The Drake equation is one way to arrive at an estimate of the number of spacefaring, technologically advanced civilizations in the
galaxy or Universe today. But until we know how to estimate these parameters, we're just guessing at the possible answers.
The notion that we can quantify the odds that a form of intelligent life arises in our Universe based on the scientific knowledge we have today is
old: it goes back to the mid-20th century at least. Enrico Fermi, whom the famous Fermi Paradox is named after, posited that such estimates
led to the notion that intelligent life in the Universe should be common, so, then, where is everyone?
The Drake equation was a famous way to parameterize our ignorance, but we still remain ignorant about the presence of alien life and alien
intelligence. Hypothesized solutions have included:
that they're there, but we aren't listening properly,
that intelligent life self-destructs too quickly to maintain a technologically advanced state for very long,
that intelligent life is common but usually chooses isolation,
that Earth is purposely excluded,
that interstellar transmission or travel is too hard,
or that aliens are already here, but choose to remain hidden from us.
These proposed solutions usually leave out the most obvious option: that one or more of the three big steps is hard, and that when it
comes to intelligent life in all the Universe, it's just us .
Intelligent aliens, if they exist in the galaxy or the Universe, might be detectable from a variety of signals: electromagnetic, from planet
modification, or because they're spacefaring. But we haven't found any evidence for an inhabited alien planet so far. We may
truly be alone in the Universe, but the honest answer is we don't know enough about the relevant probability to say so.
Our scientific discoveries have led us to a remarkable point in the quest for knowledge about our Universe. We know how big the Universe is,
how many stars and galaxies are in it, and what fraction of stars are Sun-like, possess Earth-sized planets, and have planets in orbits that are
potentially habitable. We know the ingredients for life are everywhere, and we know how life evolved, thrived, and gave rise to us here on Earth.
But how did life arise to begin with, and how likely is a planet to develop life from non-life? If life does arise, how likely is it to become
complex, differentiated, and intelligent? And if life achieves all of those milestones, how likely is it that it becomes spacefaring or otherwise
technologically advanced, and how long does such life survive if it arises? The answers may be out there, but we must remember the most
conservative possibility of all. In all the Universe, until we have evidence to the contrary , the only example of life might
be us.
Nuke War Impact
Yes Extinction
1NC/2NC---Nuclear Winter
Yes extinction from nuke winter---smoke blots out the sun for years---best science proves
Alan Robock 19, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University,
7/23/19, "Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole
Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE", Journal of
Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334648599_Nuclear_Winter_Responses_to_Nuclear_War_Between_the_
United_States_and_Russia_in_the_Whole_Atmosphere_Community_Climate_Model_Version_4_and_the_Goddard
_Institute_for_Space_Studies_ModelE
*Tg = Teragram, this study says 150 Tg = US-Russia nuclear war
Since the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the twentieth century, considerable attention has been paid to the impact of a nuc lear war
on society and the environment. Crutzen and Birks (1982), following previous ideas by Lewis (1979), suggested that massive forest fires
ignited by nuclear weapons would rage for weeks after a war, producing a tropospheric pall of smoke that would obscure the Sun and reduce
sunlight at the surface for the duration of the fires. Turco et al. (1983) conducted the first climate modeling using a radiative ‐convective climate
model, showing that a
nuc lear winter could occur from this smoke. In a war where nuclear weapons would be used,
military and industrial centers located in urban areas would be targeted, which contain fuel loading much higher
than forests, thus creating an enormous amount of smoke when burned. Turco et al. (1983) found that urban fires
injecting smoke into the upper troposphere could produce severe climate changes and that urban firestorms could
inject smoke into the stratosphere, leading to rapid interhemispheric transport and a long‐lasting smoke pall , which
has since been affirmed by coupled global climate models (Mills et al., 2008; Mills et al., 2014; Pausata et al., 2016; Robock,
Oman, & Stenchikov, 2007; Robock, Oman, Stenchikov, Toon, et al., 2007). Aleksandrov and Stenchikov (1983) conducted the first three‐
dimensional climate modeling for the injection scenarios of Turco et al. (1983) showing that continental temperature reductions would
be large despite moderation by the oceans . Malone et al. (1985) conducted the first three‐dimensional simulations including smoke
solar heating could cause smoke in the troposphere to rise into the
transport and removal by precipitation, showing that
stratosphere before precipitation removal, greatly prolonging the lifetime of the smoke. The effect of this smoke
entering Earth's upper atmosphere would be to block out sunlight for months to years , decreasing temperatures. In
1986, The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment of the International Council of Scientific Unions published a report describing
the immense biological, ecological, and human impacts of a nuclear war based on the literature at the time (Pittock et al., 1986). The first
simulation with a modern, comprehensive coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate model by Robock, Oman, and Stenchikov (2007) showed that
solar heating would loft smoke deep into the stratosphere . Robock, Oman, and Stenchikov (2007) confirmed that a nuclear
winter would result from the amount of soot that could be produced by a nuclear war between Russia and the United
States with current arsenals (Toon et al., 2008). Later agricultural modeling of a regional nuclear war showed an
increased likelihood of crop failures and global famine due to the climate effects of smoke (Xia & Robock, 2013; Xia et
al., 2015). But climate models have improved since 2007 in terms of horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, and
vertical extent, which is essential for an accurate simulation of smoke lofting . We employ the much higher
resolution WACCM4 model used by Mills et al. (2014) to repeat the nuclear war scenario from Robock, Oman, and Stenchikov
(2007). We incorporate a more sophisticated treatment of stratospheric chemistry compared to Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
ModelE, and aerosol treatment is updated from Mills et al. (2014) by treating the aerosols as fractal particles whose optical
properties evolve over time. Only Pausata et al. (2016) has used a model to study the climate effect of nuclear war, using
a much smaller injection than here, that allowed for the growth of aerosols in the stratosphere, but their model had a limited vertical
resolution and extent (26 levels with a 3‐hPa model top), potentially limiting vertical lofting. Mixing together varying ratios of organic
and black carbon, Pausata et al. (2016) found a shorter stratospheric residence time of the aerosols due to particle growth. The use of a model
with a higher model top and higher vertical resolution here should help to more accurately model the lifetime of
fractal smoke particles generated from mass fires, a key uncertainty in this field of study.
Nuclear winter is scientifically accurate, and the risk is too great to gamble
Rachel Becker 19, Science reporter citing the classic robok and lundquist, 2/8/19, “Nuclear winter is still a hot
topic as a new arms race heats up”, https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/8/18212021/nuclear-war-winter-climate-
changes-russia-north-korea-tactical-nuke-inf-treaty
It’s a subject worth talking about says Richard Turco, a professor emeritus at UCLA and one of the authors of the
1983 scientific paper that first proposed the idea. “Although there is a relatively low probability of nuclear winter
happening, the potential consequences would be catastrophic — namely the destruction of human civilization,”
Turco says in an email to The Verge.
The idea is that a global nuclear war might set entire cities on fire, as Alex Ward describes for Vox. The soot from
the conflagration could waft all the way into a part of the upper atmosphere called the stratosphere. There, the theory
goes, the soot will shade the Earth from the sun — dropping temperatures , destroying crops , drying up the rain ,
and damaging the ozone layer . “It wouldn’t take very long for people to starve to death,” says Alan Robock, a
professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers University who has been studying nuclear winter since the 1980s.
It’s a dark prediction for a post-apocalyptic world, and scientists are still figuring out just how bad it could get. After
all, no one has dropped a nuke on a city since the US bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That means there’s little
real-world data for researchers like Robock to go on. “This theory is not one we want to actually test outdoors,” he
says.
So scientists rely on simulations and events like forest fires and volcanic eruptions to validate their models.
Different models disagree — although Robock doesn’t like to characterize the discrepancies as a debate, calling
them instead an area of active research. For example, Robock and his colleagues estimate that if India and Pakistan
began nuking each other, the conflict could churn out enough soot to make global temperatures plummet. But
another study published in 2018 by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory argues that not enough soot would
make it into the upper atmosphere to cause major shifts in the climate. (The study’s corresponding author did not
respond to multiple requests for comment.)
“Now we come to the scientific issue that’s at the heart of the controversy,” says Kerry Emanuel, a professor of
atmospheric science at MIT who wrote about the concept of a nuclear winter in the 1980s. “Are the fires hot enough,
or big enough to get material up into the stratosphere?”
Robock and Julie Lundquist, an associate professor in the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the
University of Colorado Boulder, are trying to find out. We know that smoke can get into the stratosphere, Lundquist
says. Researchers studying the 2017 wildfires in British Columbia, for example, discovered that storm clouds that
formed because of the smoke, called pyrocumulonimbus clouds, helped deliver soot particles into the stratosphere.
That’s where soot would need to go if it were going to cause long-term climate changes: soot in the lower
atmosphere settles out of the air quickly, often falling to the ground with rain.
But Lundquist and her colleagues don’t know how often those pyrocumulonimbus clouds or their younger siblings,
pyrocumulus clouds, are likely to form over a nuked and burning city. The conditions need to be just right, with
calm winds and enough humidity. Then there’s the amount of smoke likely to rise from a nuked city, which would
vary from city to city depending on the available fuel. That’s another major source of uncertainty: most fire-
modeling studies have focused on wildland fires rather than major urban areas.
That’s something Lundquist is trying to change with her new models. She expects cities to produce more smoke
than, say, a forest fire because of the sheer density of things that can burn. “Think about the carpets, think about
papers, think about books, think about the furniture,” she says. “There’s more combustible stuff per square unit area
in a city or in a suburban area.”
--AT: Rainout
No rainout---smoke gets lifted to the stratosphere---cooling won’t go away
Alan Robock 19, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University,
7/23/19, "Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole
Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE", Journal of
Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334648599_Nuclear_Winter_Responses_to_Nuclear_War_Between_the_
United_States_and_Russia_in_the_Whole_Atmosphere_Community_Climate_Model_Version_4_and_the_Goddard
_Institute_for_Space_Studies_ModelE
4. Conclusions
WACCM4, a state‐of‐the‐art climate model, and GISS ModelE, an older climate model, were used more than a decade apart to simulate the
environmental aftermath of a full nuclear conflict, a near worst case scenario. The models have significant differences in particle microphysics
and spatial resolution, as well as different algorithms for radiative transfer, dynamics, and other modeling approaches. Despite this, the models
agree that a nuclear winter would follow a large‐scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia , a result
previously found by a large number of diverse but much less sophisticated models in the 1980s. Despite differences in sensitivity to shortwave
radiative anomalies, both models exhibit a peak temperature drop of near 9 K below climatological values . The massive size
of the forcing explains many of the similarities in globally averaged values initially, and differences emerge as the aerosols are removed at
different rates. The new model agrees not just in global averages but in spatial patterns for temperature, and
precipitation changes and other climate parameters. Both models highlight the risk of a crash in global surface
temp eratures, but WACCM4 points to a collapse in the summer monsoon , a dramatic shift in El Niño variability,
drastic changes to the Northern Hemisphere winter time circulation, and a climate state that is 0.5 to 1 K below
climatological temperatures from before the war with no sign of further warming. The WACCM4 model finds that the
lifetime of the smoke is greatly enhanced over 1980s models, because it extends to much higher altitudes where the
smoke is more isolated from tropospheric rainfall , a result first found in ModelE by Robock, Oman, and Stenchikov (2007).
However, compared to GISS ModelE, the lifetime of soot in the WACCM4 run is shorter due to the inclusion of particle
coagulation and fractal optics, despite the higher vertical resolution and model top, alleviating the duration of the most extreme climate
effects. Despite this , the cooling for the first few years is more extreme in WACCM4 and temperatures at the end of
the simulation suggest a new colder climate state . The inclusion of additional particle removal processes addresses a long‐standing
uncertainty about the black carbon aerosols released following a nuclear war and allows us to further constrain their e‐folding lifetime. While we
did not consider the effect of organic coatings on top of pure black carbon particles, future work should incorporate more direct calculations of
smoke generation using high‐resolution fuel loading databases and high‐resolution fire modeling of urban landscapes to determine the
distribution, type, and amount of material emitted from nuclear fires. Future work will build upon the results of Yu et al. (2019) to quantify the
role of organic carbon in smoke from pyroCbs and the sensitivity tests of different ratios of organic carbon and black carbon by Pausata et al.
(2016) for a regional nuclear war. Addressing the uncertainty of aerosol composition would further quantify the lifetime of these aerosols and
their effects on chemistry in the stratosphere. The research conducted here supports the results of Turco et al. (1983), Sagan (1984), Pittock et al.
(1986), Robock, Oman, and Stenchikov (2007), Mills et al. (2008), Robock and Toon (2012), and Mills et al. (2014) that a full‐scale nuclear
attack would be suicidal for the country that decides to carry out such an attack. The use of nuclear weapons in this
manner by the United States and Russia would have disastrous consequences globally. To completely remove the
possibility of an environmental catastrophe as a result of a full‐scale nuclear war, decision makers must have a full
understanding of the grave climatic consequences of nuclear war and act accordingly. Ultimately, the reduction of nuclear
arsenals and the eventual disarmament of all nuclear capable parties are needed.
--AT: Islands/Survivors
Nuclear war triggers dozens of indirect extinction scenarios and threatens future-
reproduction
Seth Baum 19, executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, a think tank focused on existential
risk, 4/9/19, “A global disaster such as a nuclear war, a pandemic or runaway AI could have much graver
consequences for humanity’s future than we realise, says catastrophic risk expert Seth Baum.”,
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190408-how-catastrophes-can-change-the-path-of-humanity
To better understand how a catastrophe could shape humanity’s future , let’s consider one example: an all-out nuclear
war that involved all of the world’s nuclear-armed countries: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom
and the US. Only the most expansive war would manage to draw in all of these countries. A more probable scenario would only involve Russia
and the US, which together hold over 90% of the global nuclear arsenal. But for the sake of discussion, let’s consider the worst-case nuclear war.
Even in the worst case, much of the world would presumably be spared from immediate destruction . Africa and Latin
America in particular are full of countries that are neither close allies nor adversaries of any of the nuclear-armed countries. Residents of
these countries would presumably survive the initial nuclear explosions, as would people who live in the targeted countries but
away from the cities and military sites that get bombed.
The harm from nuclear war would spread far beyond the bombed areas
The survivors’ world would instantly be changed. In addition to the social and political turmoil, they would also lose
many important nodes in the global economy. Many global supply chains are designed to be highly efficient under
normal conditions but are fragile to even small disruptions – and this disruption would not be small at all. Within weeks
or even days, communities all over the world could face shortages of consumer goods, replacement parts for critical
industrial infrastructure, and other basics .
Soon after, the global environmental effects would start to kick in. Nuclear explosions are so powerful that they can
send the dust and ash from burning cities all the way into the stratosphere, which is the second layer of the atmosphere, located
7km (4 miles) above the surface at the poles and 20km (12 miles) at the equator. The stratosphere is above the clouds, so anything that gets up
there doesn’t wash out in the rain. Instead, it spreads around the world within a few months and stays aloft for a few years. While aloft, it blocks
incoming sunlight, cooling the surface and reducing precipitation, all of which is bad news for agriculture. (Find out more about how prepared we
are for the impact of nuclear war).
The famine from a worst-case nuclear war would kill many people all around the world, possibly more than would die from the war itself. But it
might not kill everyone. There are some food stockpiles that could keep some people alive until the skies clear. Additional food could be grown
from artificial light or other sources, assuming supplies for that were intact.
The combination of global famine plus the destruction of the war itself would severely strain our modern global
civilisation . It is possible that the survivors could keep life as we know it more or less intact. But with all the pressures they face, it would
be understandable if our civilisation collapsed, just as previous civilisations from Egypt to Easter Island once did (see
“Are we headed for civilisation collapse?”).
People often ask me which risks are the biggest, but this is the wrong way to look at it
What the intersection of famine and destruction following a nuclear war tells us is that catastrophes are often
interconnected . The consequences – and vulnerability – a single catastrophe creates can linger from many years after the
event. A nuclear war isn’t just a nuclear war: it is also an economic recession and an agriculture failure . How well
civilisation endures it may depend a lot on how much it has already been weakened by global warming and other environmental degradation.
The effects of the nuclear war could precipitate additional catastrophes, such as a pandemic (due to weakened public
health infrastructure) or a catastrophic failure of geoengineering (leading to accelerated climate change). This is a
scenario my colleagues and I have called a “double catastrophe”.
Because of all these interconnections, it is important to study catastrophes all together, instead of in isolation . People often
ask me which risks are the biggest, but this is the wrong way to look at it. We face an interconnected system of
catastrophic risk, not a collection of isolated risks. My colleagues and I have developed the concept of “integrated
assessment” of catastrophic risks to study the interconnected risk and develop the best ways of addressing it.
Regardless of what all the catastrophe entails, it raises the question of what happens next. If humanity goes extinct, this question is of course easy
to answer: we’re all dead. But if some people survive, the answer is a subtler matter.
If civilisation ceased functioning, survivors would be largely on their own to keep themselves alive and healthy. Today, most people live in urban
areas and may struggle to grow their food. (Ask yourself: would you know how to survive without civilisation providing you your basic needs?)
Ironically, some of the most well-off people in the post-catastrophe world could be the subsistence farmers who are today considered to be among
the world’s poorest. (Read more about what happens, and how people react, in a food crisis).
One critical task would be reproduction. Survivor populations would need to be large enough and close enough
together in order to produce new generations of humans. Otherwise, the population would die out. Scientists have proposed that as
few as 150 or as many as 40,000 people could be needed to sustain a genetically viable population. The more favourable the conditions, the fewer
people are needed, and the more likely a population is to succeed.
Society would be screwed---even if there are survivors, they’ll die out instead of rebuilding
Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett, 18. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. 4/3/18, Global Catastrophic Risk
Institute Working Paper 18-2 “A Model for the Impacts of Nuclear War” p. 17
https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3155983 Accessed 10/27/19 *content warning for mention of suicide
Finally, there are the effects of human perceptions of ionizing radiation . These are numerous, complex, and in
many cases difficult to predict. A simple effect is the evacuation of populations located in areas perceived to be
exposed to harmful doses of ionizing radiation. Evacuations are a standard procedure for such exposures, as seen
most recently in the evacuation of the Fukushima region following the 2011 nuclear power plant accident.
Evacuations are likely to occur following nuclear detonations to the extent that they are feasible. Depending on the
details of the nuclear war scenario, evacuation could be rendered difficult , for example because of the death or
incapacitation of people or damage to transportation systems .
Evacuations can lessen the harms caused by ionizing radiation by reducing a population’s exposure. However,
evacuations can also cause harms . One potential harm is by depriving populations of hormesis benefits, if there are
any. Another harm comes from the evacuation itself. This was seen in the Fukushima evacuation, which caused an
estimated 1,100 deaths, due mainly to fatigue and in part also due to collapsed medical infrastructure (Saji
2013). Suffice to say, evacuation during or after nuclear war would face considerably different circumstances.
Evacuated territory could be abandoned for an extended duration or even in perpetuity . While Hiroshima and
Nagasaki have been repopulated, the Chernobyl area remains largely abandoned due to concerns about ionizing
radiation. Abandoning territory has both economic and ecological effects. The economic effects derive from the loss
of whatever geographic resources the abandoned territory offered and are thus site-specific. The ecological effects
are generally positive, such as the ecological flourishing now found in the abandoned Chernobyl area (Mulvey
2006).
Perceptions of ionizing radiation can have a strong impact on the mental health of nuclear detonation survivors .
Fear of ionizing radiation can lead to survivors being socially stigmatized (Peters et al. 2004) and can also lead to
survivors having negative attitudes about themselves (e.g., low self-esteem). One recent study of Nagasaki
survivors found poor mental health 50 years after the bombing, due mainly to fears xabout radiation (Kim et al.
2011). There are even some indicators of a radiation exposure causing an increase in suicide rates (Loganovsky
2007). There are some positives to speak of for nuclear detonation survivors. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors
—the hibakusha—have acquired a certain social status. This is seen in them being offered prominent speaking roles
in major events about nuclear weapons (e.g., Thurlow 2014). Comparable opportunities are less available for other
WWII survivors. However, the overall effect from perceptions of ionizing radiation appears to be a significant
negative .
Perceptions of ionizing radiation also impact norms . These impacts are discussed in the shifted norms module.
--AT Small/Limited Nuke War
A limited nuclear war is enough to trigger our impacts
Adam J. Liska 17, associate professor and the George Dempster Smith Chair of Industrial Ecology in the
Departments of Biological Systems Engineering and Agronomy and Horticulture at the University of Nebraska,
7/6/17, “Nuclear Weapons in a Changing Climate: Probability, Increasing Risks, and Perception,”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00139157.2017.1325300
Nuclear Drought: Minimum Thresholds for Nuclear Weapons Use and Carbon Sources
Many currently deployed nuclear weapons, such as air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM), submarine-launched
ballistic missiles (SLBM), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), air-dropped bombs, and land-based missiles,
have explosive yields of 90 KT to 5 megatons (MT), which are 6 to 330 times more powerful than those employed
in previous atmospheric model simulations that primarily assumed multiple 15-KT explosions (Table 2). The use of
only one 5-MT land-based missile deployed by China could burn an area similar in size to that of one hundred 15-
KT explosions. Alternatively, if the U nited States dropped only three 1.2-MT bombs, or used two Trident D5
SLBM (each with four 475-KT warheads), the size of the explosions would exceed the land area required to produce
similar climate impacts. Use of only four 800-KT Russian ICBMs or ten 300-KT French gravity bombs would also
have similar climate impacts. Thus, use of as few as 1 to 10 deployed nuclear weapons, and fewer than 25 of these
prevalent types, from the five official nuclear weapons countries could produce a nuclear drought ; many of the most
prevalent types of strategic nuclear weapons deployed by these countries are shown (Table 2). For these five
countries in total, there are roughly 1,682 warheads deployed that have yields between 100 and 300 KT; ~697
warheads with yields between >300 and 800 KT; and ~41 warheads with yields between 1 and 5 MT. Furthermore,
the use of smaller bombs by any actor could easily escalate into the use of larger weapons, such as any of the major
types that are deployed and shown here, although new U.S. policy suggests the response to any adversarial use of
nuclear weapons would elicit a “proportional” nuclear response by the United S tates.31 Nuclear drought events
could also occur by regional nuclear exchanges between Pakistan and India (~6.6 Tg C), North Korea or Russia
and the United S tates, or Israel and Iran, among many other possible increasing numbers of combinations.32
Vegetation is not required to produce significant climate impacts. Even in the desert Middle East, a single high-
temperature nuclear explosion (e.g., 3,000–7,700°C) could ignite above-ground oil reserves, infrastructures , and
wellheads , and produce significant stratospheric particle dispersion.33 A nuclear explosion could create greater
climate impacts than the Kuwaiti oil field fires of 1991 due to higher altitude smoke dispersion into the stratosphere
and more wellheads potentially being ignited. During the Gulf War in 1991, Kuwaiti oil wells were set on fire in
January and some burned until November, when they were actively extinguished. At a rate of ~3,400 metric tons of
soot emitted per day for approximately 6 months, ~0.6 Tg of black carbon was dispersed into the troposphere from
610 ignited wells.34
A limited nuclear war would destroy strategic stability and deterrence causing World War
III
Norman Friedman 19, PhD, Theoretical Physics, Columbia University, former Deputy Director for National
Security Affairs at the Hudson Institute, former consultant to the US Secretary of the Navy, Sept 2019,
"STRATEGIC SUBMARINES AND STRATEGIC STABILITY : LOOKING TOWARDS THE 2030s", Indo-
Pacific Strategy Series,Undersea Deterrence Project, Australian National University,
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2019-
09/publish_nsc_publication_strategic_submarines_2019_1.pdf
In theory, the basis of strategic stability - of averting World War III - is absolute confidence on the part of all parties that they
cannot destroy their enemies’ strategic weapons in a first strike. The associated assumption is that the effects of a nuc lear or
thermonuclear strike would be so horrific as to be utterly unacceptable ; they would collapse the victims’ entire society.
Fortunately this belief has never been tested but it is worth pointing out that at times rulers have questioned it. In the Cold War, the
Soviet Union made serious attempts to convince people that they could survive strategic attack by various civil defence measures. These attempts
failed, not least because decades of Communist rule had engendered a high degree of cynicism in the Soviet population. Similarly, claims by the
United States about the efficacy of civil defence - for negating the deterrent effect of strategic weapons - often fell completely flat. The present
Russian regime is reportedly again trying to convince its population that nuclear war is winnable and it may be enjoying greater success than
during the Cold War.
It is widely believed that the basis of current strategic stability is that strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) are inherently invulnerable. During
much of the Cold War, however, that was obviously untrue. Although it appears that the Soviets were unable to track US SSBNs until the late
1970s, the US Navy could certainly track their Soviet counterparts using long-range acoustic systems. The Soviets also had other strategic
weapons, mainly land-based missiles, and the US lacked any defence against them. Early in the Cold War the US government actually did have a
first-strike capability in which it believed because for a time the Soviets stored their warheads separately from their weapons - for reasons of
internal security.
If the belief in the absolute destructiveness of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons is the basis for strategic stability, it
seems reasonable to argue that reality cannot quite match what governments believe. It would seem to follow that the single most
revolutionary possible experience of the next three or four decades would be a limited nuc lear war which did not live up
to its advertising. An example might be an India-Pakistan war in which nuclear weapons were used only against army formations. The
impact of any nuclear exchange which did not kill millions of people would do more to kill strategic stability (to the extent
that it is based on deterrence ) than any advance in strategic ASW or in ballistic missile defence.
External Mods/Turns Case
1NC/2NC---Amazon Forest !
Nuclear blast burns down the Amazon and destroy the environment
Michael Mills 14, PhD, NCAR Earth System Laboratory, 2014, “Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented
ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict,”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205
Similarly, the 6% global average drop in precipitation that persists through years 2–6 (Figure 3d) translates into
more significant regional drying (Figure 11). The most evident feature is over the Asian monsoon region, including
the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Broad precipitation reductions of 0.5–1.5 mm/day
would reduce annual rainfall by 20%–80%. Similarly, large relative reductions in rainfall would occur in the
Amazon region of South America, and southern Africa. The American Southwest and Western Australia would be
20%–60% drier. Robock et al. [2007b] predict a broadly wetter Sahel region as a result of a weaker Hadley
circulation. Stenke et al. [2013] do not find such increased precipitation, and nor do we, despite some increase in
precipitation near Morocco.
Following Robock et al. [2007b], we have calculated the change in the frost‐free growing season, defined as the
number of consecutive days in a 1 year period with minimum temperatures above 0°C (Figure 12). Because our
globally averaged surface temperatures continue to cool until year 6, we show the average change in the growing
season over years 2–6. The length of the average growing season is reduced by up to 40 days throughout the world's
agricultural zones over these 5 years. This is similar to the results that Robock et al. [2007b] report for their first
year, with significant regional differences. We find more significant decreases in Russia , North Africa , the Middle
East , and the Himalayas than the previous study, and somewhat smaller effects in the American Midwest and
South America.
The land component in CESM1(WACCM) is CLM4CN, a comprehensive land carbon cycle model [Lawrence et al.,
2011]. CLM4CN is prognostic with respect to carbon and nitrogen state variables in vegetation, litter, and soil
organic matter. Vegetation carbon is affected by temperature, precipitation, solar radiation (and its partitioning into
direct and diffuse radiation), humidity, soil moisture, and nitrogen availability, among other factors. We calculate an
average loss of 11 Pg C from vegetation (2% of the total), which equates to an increase in atmospheric CO2 of about
5 ppmv (5 × 10−6 molec/molec air). We also note a significant (42%–46%) increase in C loss from fires in the
Amazon over the first 8 years in two of our three 50 nm experiment ensemble. The third run showed Amazon fire
loss 13% higher than the control average, but within the variability of the control ensemble. Our runs do not account
for the atmospheric effects of CO2 or smoke emissions from the land component, but the smoke from the Amazon‐
kindled fires would be a positive feedback that would enhance the cooling we have found.
Burning down the amazon causes extinction
Nicole Karlis 19, news writer at Salon, covers health, science, tech and gender politics, 8/22/19, “Can humanity
survive without the Amazon rainforest?”, https://www.salon.com/2019/08/22/can-humanity-survive-without-the-
amazon-rainforest-maybe-not-experts-say/
Massive fires in the Amazon rainforest, a result of far-right policies, call humanity's survival into question
No use worrying about whether you're achieving a Hot Girl Summer . This summer is uncannily hot all
around the world, but especially in the Amazon.
The Amazon rainforest is the world’s largest tropical rainforest and covers much of northwestern Brazil, functioning
as Earth’s "air conditioner," as it helps regulate the planet’s global temperature . This week, a Brazilian research
center called the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reported that the Amazon rainforest has experienced a
77 percent increase in wildfires in the Amazon from the same period in 2018. Multiple news outlets report that more
than 9,000 of those fires have been spotted in the past week. The blazes and smoke, as NASA pointed out, are large
enough to be seen from space.
Unlike in California, where wildfires have mostly been caused by atmospheric conditions and an increase in dead
tree fuel, many of the Amazon’s wildfires have been human-induced. As explained by Amazon Watch, a non-profit
advocating for indigenous rights in the Amazon, the farmers who have started the fires were encouraged by Brazil’s
right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic.
In July alone, the Amazon lost 519 square miles of rainforest, an area more than twice the size of Tokyo, due to
deforestation.
“This devastation is directly related to President Bolsonaro's anti-environmental rhetoric, which erroneously frames
forest protections and human rights as impediments to Brazil's economic growth,” Christian Poirier, Amazon
Watch's Program Director, said in a statement. “Farmers and ranchers understand the president's message as a
license to commit arson with wanton impunity, in order to aggressively expand their operations into the rainforest."
These unprecedented fires are not an isolated issue for South America. The fires happening this summer could
contribute to climate change in an irreversible way, partly because the Amazon rainforest is the only tropical
rainforest we have left.
Scientists say that global warming must be maintained at a maximum of 1.5°C warming in order to prevent the
dangerous effects of climate change. The Paris Climate Agreement pledges to keep temperature increases between
1.5°C and 2°C, but as climate scientists have warned, that half degree could make a big difference in terms of
destruction — which is why conserving a massive rainforest like the Amazon is critical.
Human activity, via burning fossil fuels, coal, oil and natural gas, has pumped massive amounts of carbon into the
air, contributing to Earth’s temperature rising. Of course, trees are a natural way for the planet to filter and
reprocessing the world’s harmful carbon dioxide output.
In the natural process of photosynthesis , trees and plants remove carbon from the air, absorb it, and release oxygen
back into the air. In total, the world’s forests suck up 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon each year. The Amazon
absorbs a quarter of that total.
Romulo Batista, a Forest Campaigner for Greenpeace in Brazil, explained to Salon that every single tree in the
Amazon helps “control the humidity and how the heat is exchanging in different parts of the world.”
“It is the air conditioning of the world,” he said.
However over the last few decades, scientists have warned that the Amazon rainforest is losing its ability to soak up
carbon due to tree loss. According to a 2015 report, through analyzing data through 2011, the rate of tree growth in
the Amazon forest has remained static in the last several years, but a number of trees dying each year is increasing.
The trees of the Amazon rainforest also release water vapor into the air which creates a process known as “flying
rivers” in the atmosphere. These flying rivers help circulate water and weather patterns around the world.
As explained by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, flying rivers are a result of the
process of evapotranspiration, which is when forests replenish the supply of water vapor in the atmosphere.
“As much as 70 percent of the atmospheric moisture generated over land areas comes from plants, which has
important impacts on water availability across landscapes,” the United Nations asserts. “Atmospheric moisture
generated by forests not only affects water availability in the local catchment, it is also transported into other regions
or even continents by prevailing winds.”
When the Amazon rainforest functions as it should, it creates a positive feedback loop. Unfortunately, the reverse is
happening currently, which is bringing the rainforest toward an irreversible tipping point, one that scientists can’t
predict.
“The biggest problem is once we have more of this change of climate in the Amazon, it gets harder , drier , more
fires , and that becomes a cycle that can achieve the tipping point ,” Batista told Salon.
-- T/Warming
Amazon key to prevent broad climate change
Morgan McFall-Johnsen 19, science editorial fellow at Business Insider and INSIDER, Bachelor of Science in
Journalism at Northwestern University, 8/24/19, “Earth is a spaceship, and the Amazon is a crucial part of our life-
support system, creating up to 20% of our oxygen. Here's why we need the world's largest rainforest.”,
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-amazon-rainforest-is-important-life-support-is-burning-2019-8
David Sirota, a political commentator who writes speeches for Bernie Sanders , put the problem like this in a
tweet: "We're all on a spaceship hurtling through a vacuum. The Amazon rainforest is our spaceship's life support
system . Our spaceship's life support system is on fire ."
It's a fitting analogy, since the Amazon plays a major role in many of the processes that make our planet habitable:
water cycles , weather patterns , and the exchange of oxygen and carbon dioxide . The rainforest is also home to
more than 30 million people and over 10% of the world's biodiversity . Scientists see potential for new medicines in
unstudied Amazon plants.
The more than 2.5 million square miles of Amazon rainforest are also one of our greatest buffers against the
climate crisis , since the trees absorb carbon dioxide, thereby keeping it out of the atmosphere.
But deforestation threatens all of that. Humans have cut down nearly 20% of the Amazon in the last 50 years,
according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). If another 20% of the Amazon disappears, that could trigger a
"dieback" scenario in which the forest would dry out and become a savannah . That process would release billions
of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and raise global temperatures .
Here is what's at risk if we lose the Amazon.
The 'lungs of the planet'
The Amazon helps keep the atmosphere's carbon-dioxide levels in check.
Plants and trees take in carbon dioxide and release oxygen back into the air through the process of photosynthesis .
This is why the Amazon is often referred to as the "lungs of the planet" : It produces between 6% and 20% of the
oxygen in Earth's atmosphere. (Estimates vary — climate scientists Michael Mann and Jonathan Foley calculated
the 6% figure, while a report from the nonprofit Amazon Watch estimated it's closer to 20%.)
Researchers have calculated that the Amazon holds up to 140 billion tons of carbon dioxide — the equivalent of 14
decades' worth of human emissions.
"The Amazon is a major bank of carbon," Ruth DeFries, an ecology professor at Columbia University, told Vice.
"When trees gets burned and carbon is released into the atmosphere, that exacerbates our global warming ."
1NC/2NC---Ozone/Water Cycle!
Even a small nuclear war destroys the ozone and water cycling
Alan Robock 19, Distinguished Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University,
7/23/19, "Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole
Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE", Journal of
Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334648599_Nuclear_Winter_Responses_to_Nuclear_War_Between_the_
United_States_and_Russia_in_the_Whole_Atmosphere_Community_Climate_Model_Version_4_and_the_Goddard
_Institute_for_Space_Studies_ModelE
*Tg = Teragram, this study says 150 Tg = US-Russia nuclear war
Volcanic eruption clouds provide a well‐observed analog for particle lifetimes and climate effects. Sulfate aerosols generated from gases injected
into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions cause global cooling due to the reflection of incoming solar radiation back to space, which has been
observed numerous times and modeled successfully (Robock, 2000). Simulations of volcanic clouds including particle growth show that large
volcanic eruptions, such as that of Mt. Pinatubo with 35 Tg of sulfate aerosols, produce clouds with lifetimes of about 1 year, as observed (Barnes
& Hoffman, 1997; Deshler, 2008). However, numerical simulations suggest that larger eruptions, which are not well observed, will produce large
particles with shorter lifetimes (English et al., 2013; Pinto et al., 1989). Volcanic aerosols are not transported as high as black carbon aerosols as
they are only weakly absorptive and do not self‐loft significantly (Robock, Oman, & Stenchikov, 2007). Wildfires pale in comparison to the Mt.
Pinatubo cloud mass, but their aerosols can heat the air enough to be lofted 8 km vertically (Yu et al., 2019). An injection of 150 Tg of black
carbon would be a far greater aerosol loading than wildfire contributions or any volcanic eruptions from the past 100 years (when masses can be
reliably determined) but would be orders of magnitude smaller than injections of black carbon into the atmosphere 66 million years ago when an
asteroid impact caused much of the biomass on Earth's surface to burn, resulting in a mass extinction event (Bardeen et al., 2017; Toon et al.,
2016). Volcanic eruptions and mass fires are both effective methods of injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, but the
black carbon produced by nuclear mass fires , like what is simulated here, results in far more extreme climate
effects per unit mass.
Cooling at the surface is only one of many phenomena that would occur if abundant black carbon aerosols are
injected into the stratosphere. Several modeling studies have shown that stratospheric temperatures would increase
by more than 50 K and stratospheric ozone would undergo global destruction , even for a scenario where 5 Tg of
soot is injected into the stratosphere (Mills et al., 2014; Robock, Oman, Stenchikov, Toon, et al., 2007; Toon et al., 2007). The global
hydrologic cycle would become far less active, with a reduction in summer monsoon precipitation and a
significantly reduced growing season (Robock, Oman, & Stenchikov, 2007; Robock, Oman, Stenchikov, Toon, et al., 2007). The
impacts on human society would be devastating due to ag ricultural losses alone , even from the 5‐Tg scenario (Xia
& Robock, 2013; Xia et al., 2015). Research on the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions has found similar, although usually less severe,
consequences as a result of global cooling due to smaller stratospheric aerosol loadings (Robock, 2000).
for redress to balance an enormously vast array of interrelated interests are ill-suited to the ad hoc and piecemeal
nature of litigation. The p olitical q uestion d octrine prohibits courts from acting where, as here, there are no judicially
manageable standards and any adjudication would inevitably require initial policy decisions reserved to the political
Branches on matters (to name only a few) such as the appropriate level of global emissions, the parties that should bear the costs of limiting
emissions, and foreign policy and economic ramifications of attempting to address global climate change. Indeed, as the United States has explained, “plaintiffs’ common-law nuisance suits
present serious concerns regarding the role of an Article III court under the Constitution’s separation of powers—especially in light of the representative Branches’ ongoing efforts to combat
climate change by formulating and implementing domestic policy and participating in international negotiations.” TVA Br. 13. These matters are not just exceptionally complex or difficult—they
have no “right” jurisprudential answers. Under our Constitution and this Court’s precedents, such matters are reserved for the political Branches.¶ Third, the court of appeals erred in finding that
plaintiffs have Article III standing to maintain this action. That defect provides a threshold basis for dismissing this action. The likelihood of redressability in this suit against a finite and arbitrary
set of carbon-emitting entities is so remote and so speculative that the ruling here would permit literally anyone alleging climate-change based damages to sue any entity or natural person in the
world—an absurd result that highlights once again just how inapt the judicial forum is for addressing such inherently global concerns. Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007), does not
dictate a contrary conclusion. The principles animating that decision—which focused on the ability of Congress to relax the Article III inquiry in the context of a statutory provision for
challenging agency action—are inapplicable in this common-law context. Finding standing in this case would require a significant expansion of Massachusetts and (given the absence of the
congressional action on which this Court relied in Massachusetts to find standing) put the courts well ahead of the democratic process in this area. It would also require the Court to disregard the
prudential limits that the Court itself has imposed on judicial review of “‘generalized grievances more appropriately addressed in the representative branches.’” Elk Grove Unified Sch. Dist. v.
Newdow, 542 U.S. 1, 12 (2004) (quoting Allen v. Wright, 468 U.S. 737, 751 (1984)). ¶ The astounding practical implications of the decision below underscore the separation-of-powers problems
an emerging category of litigation over greenhouse-gas
with allowing this unprecedented common law action to proceed. Especially since Massachusetts,
emissions has developed implicating countless plaintiffs and defendants. If the decision of the Second Circuit is affirmed, this suit—and
the countless others that inevitably follow—will destabilize our economy , undermine our democratic process, and impact sensitive
foreign policy considerations. The debate over the appropriate response to climate change affects every business
concern and implicates virtually every facet of daily life . This complex political dialogue belongs in the political
arena, not the courthouse— much less in scores if not hundreds of different courthouses across America as suits like plaintiffs’ proliferate. Only the
elected Branches are authorized and equipped to develop our nation’s response to climate change and undertake any necessary reforms.
2NC---Econ Impact
Economic decline causes war--- their defense assumes a set of moderating mechanisms
which don’t exist post-economic decline and unconventional monetary policy means this
time is different---feeds great power war even if by accident, especially during periods of
diplomatic tension---that’s Sundaram.
Causes war with China, Russia, Iran, collapses alliances, turns climate change and
democracy
Fitch 19 – Fitch Solutions Macro Research, an affiliate of Fitch Ratings, global leader in financial information
services with operations in more than 30 countries, one of the ‘big three’ credit rating agencies, 8/5/19, “Recession
Risks: The Political And Geopolitical Consequences,” https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-
sovereigns/recession-risks-political-and-geopolitical-consequences-05-08-2019
A global recession could accelerate the current trend towards de-globalisation and regionalisation, although the extent to which this plays
out would be uneven (see ‘Three Scenarios For Globalisation: 2017-2030, November 29, 2016). ‘Globalist’-minded leaders and organisations would blame US
President Donald Trump’s trade protectionism either for triggering or exacerbating the global recession, and argue that further protectionist measures would only do
the world economy more harm. However, given that populism and nationalism are likely to rise amid a future recession , and given that
the world’s major powers are increasingly acting in their self-interests, coordinated multilateral actions by governments
to ‘save the world economy’ are unlikely to be forthcoming (see ‘Liberal International Order’ To Face Growing Strains, With Or Without US’,
March 21, 2019). At the height of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the world’s leading economies (G20) appeared to coordinate a
loosening of monetary policy and eschewed trade protectionism, seemingly recognising the dangers of a return to 1930s-style tariffs. By
contrast, in 2019, the notion of globalisation as positive and irreversible is no longer the prevailing wisdom. Therefore, any coordination
is more likely to come from central banks rather than governments. ‘ Great power’ relations have also deteriorated sharply since 2009, with
China increasing its military presence in the S outh C hina S ea, Russia annexing Crimea, and the US raising tariffs against
China while also withdrawing from both the Iran nuclear deal and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Relations have also
worsened between second-tier powers such as Japan, India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia and some of their neighbours. All these
developments will reduce the appetite for cooperation between G20 states.
Although many of the world’s major economies are still seeking to boost trade ties through new arrangements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement
for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Pacific Alliance, Mercosur, Africa Free Trade Area, and EU-Mercosur pact, progress would likely be uneven and subject to
delays, as domestic considerations and employment are prioritised over trade liberalisation by participating countries.
Greater Political Fragmentation, Policy Paralysis, And Social Unrest
In a number of countries, a new recession would almost certainly lead to greater political fragmentation, as populist parties on the left
and right draw support away from traditional or mainstream parties anchored to the centre. For example, in recent years, Spain’s traditional two-party system has
become a four-party one. The overall result is that it would be harder for a single party or well-established two-party coalition to win a simple majority in elections.
This implies that weaker governments could emerge, with their policy-making abilities significantly constrained by
parliamentary mathematics, leading to frustrations that governments ‘aren’t getting anything done’. Meanwhile, this dynamic could prompt greater street protests, of
the kind experienced in France by the ‘Yellow Vests’ since late 2018.
United States Of America
President Donald Trump would become more vulnerable to losing the November 2020 election, as his approval rating is much lower than his predecessors at this stage
in his term and has struggled to break above the 45-50% range. American voters have often punished the incumbent president or ruling party in elections held at times
of recession or severe economic pain, as was the case with presidents Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Republican candidate John McCain
in 2008. Trump
would likely seek to blame China and the Federal Reserve for the downturn, thus diverting culpability away from himself, and
drumming up a nationalistic discourse at home. Regardless of a recession, Trump will re-emphasise that he is ‘the first president to stand up to
China on trade’, and that his defeat would benefit China. Indeed, he may even seek to accuse China of interfering in the election against him. Overall, we would
anticipate a worsening of Sino-US relations ahead of the US election, as well as further political polarisation in the US.
A new recession would also affect the opposition Democratic Party’s presidential campaign, for it could boost the appeal of the more leftist-populist candidates, or
steer a hitherto centrist figure in that direction. For example, the strong appeal of self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders in the Democrats’ 2016
candidate selection process prompted the eventual nominee Hillary Clinton to oppose the planned Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact. Against this backdrop,
should a Democratic president be elected in 2020, then he or she would likely maintain a high degree of trade protectionism towards China. In addition, there would
likely be more appetite to increase funding towards healthcare, education, and basic services, while potentially raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. This
would further exacerbate political tensions and raise the prospects of fiscal concerns in financial markets.
Europe
A new recession would almost certainly provide a further boost to populism in countries that have hitherto been dominated by establishment parties – although
whether right-wing or left-wing populism prevails would depend on the specifics of the country. Detractors of populism would likely warn that the advent of a
populist government in Italy failed to solve that country’s problems, but this is unlikely to deter disgruntled voters in the hardest-hit countries, who may not
necessarily be aware of or care about Italy’s example, and who are frustrated and looking for change from the establishment that has thus far failed to produce strong
growth and gains for the middle classes.
Italy’s already weak economy would worsen, potentially causing the LN-M5S populist coalition to collapse, and trigger fresh elections, which polls suggest would be
won by LN rather than M5S (the largest party after the 2018 election). However, even if LN were to emerge in a stronger position, it would still struggle to tackle
Italy’s structural economic challenges, which include a heavy debt load, ageing demographics, and weak banking sector.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron would see his popularity wane further, exposing him to more ‘yellow vest’-style protests, and leaving him more vulnerable to a
successful far-right challenge in the April 2022 presidential election – although it is also possible that a far-left candidate could make it to the second round. Either
way, a recession would raise the prospect of Macron becoming France’s third consecutive one-term president after an era in which France had two consecutive two-
term presidents (1981-2007). Importantly, the far right, with its rebranded image and slightly more moderate stance on certain issues could take advantage of rising
dissatisfaction and social tensions to appeal to those disappointed by the establishment and also from Macron’s failure to deliver change.
Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel could face pressure to step down early, well before the autumn 2021 general elections. A recession would likely further reduce
support for both Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition partner, benefiting the right-wing Alternative for
Germany (AfD) and the Greens. A more fragmented Bundestag would further complicate policy-making and governance in Germany. The weakened German
leadership in Berlin could also lead to a political vacuum in the EU, given that Germany, along with France, have long been at the core of the bloc.
The United Kingdom’s first post-Brexit government could also lose support, as many voters would blame Brexit for exacerbating the downturn. Indeed, should the
UK leave the EU without a deal on October 31, 2019, and subsequently suffer from a global recession, then opponents of Brexit would be galvanised to lobby for
closer relations with the EU. Meanwhile, the left-wing main opposition Labour Party could gain further support, if unemployment rose substantially and the
Conservative government was perceived to have mismanaged Brexit and the economy. However, with the UK divided over Brexit and a host of other social issues,
there would be no guarantee that a strong government would emerge from an early election (the next election is officially scheduled for June 2022).
The eurozone’s stability could once again be tested by a recession, raising questions similar to during the 2011-2012 crisis about its long-term
survival. At that time, speculation was rife that Greece, and possibly Italy could leave the eurozone, leading to economic havoc in southern Europe. As many countries
would be forced to focus on domestic challenges, this could lead to a stalling of reform momentum as well as a loss of clout for the eurozone, enabling more countries
to openly criticise the institution and potentially exit the bloc.
China
A global recession would expose President Xi Jinping to greater domestic criticism , given that he has assumed more responsibility for the
economy in recent years from Premier Li Keqiang. Indeed, Xi has also taken charge of trade policy towards the US. However, Xi
would almost certainly seek to
deflect any criticism by blaming Donald Trump’s protectionism for the downturn. Consequently, Xi would adopt a more
nationalistic stance , for example by augment ing China’s military presence in the S outh C hina S ea, or step ping up
pressure against Taiwan , especially if the latter’s anti-mainland president, Tsai Ing-wen, is re-elected in January 2020. Overall, the scene would be
set for greater antagonism between Beijing and Washington , rather than co-ordinated measures to boost global economic growth.
The Greatest Game?
Indo-Pacific Region – Geopolitical Alignments
Despite Xi’s likely promotion of Chinese nationalism, some Communist Party of China (CPC)
officials could use the recession to reduce Xi’s
influence, if not oust him entirely , although the latter outcome is unlikely. Their room for manoeuvre would depend on the severity of the recession and
the level of public unrest. China saw only very limited unrest at the time of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, and the government was able to mitigate the impact
of the recession with a huge fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion. However, the government has much less leeway to enact large-scale stimulus now,
given that China has accumulated considerable debts over the past decade.
Meanwhile, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could be subject to more delays, as there would be less financing available from Beijing. The BRI has already been
delayed by changes of governments in countries along the routes, and growing public scrutiny of the projects’ financing and implementation. A prolonged economic
downturn in China could substantially slow the BRI, but overall we would expect the project to continue at a later date, as increased connectivity across Eurasia
appears to be a megatrend that transcends economic cycles.
Grand Vision Could Temporarily Lose Momentum
Participating Countries In The BRI
Petro-States
The resulting drop in oil prices would hurt oil exporting economies and governments’ ability to ‘buy’ stability through public spending. Countries with relatively large
populations or ones which are suffering from below trend economic growth are most at risk and include Iran, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
Indirectly, Egypt could suffer from reduced financial assistance from Gulf states (although progress with its IMF programme leaves it in better shape that a few years
ago).
Rising economic pressure in Iran could increase anti-government protests, potentially forcing the Iranian regime to seek a new nuclear
deal with the US Trump administration so that sanctions can be eased. Trump is keen for a summit with his Iranian counterpart, but Tehran has rejected this on the
basis that the US’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 proves that it cannot be trusted. However, economic circumstances could steer it towards fresh
talks. Alternatively, economic
pressures could steer the regime towards a more anti-US stance , raising the risk of a
regional conflict .
In Russia, economic weakness could also hurt President Vladimir Putin’s position further, although Russia has thus far successfully weathered
oil price-induced economic downturns in 2008 and 2014. An economic downturn could also have a bearing on whether Putin decides to seek a further six-year term as
president in 2024. He could certainly blame global conditions for the recession and make the case that his strong leadership is necessary to keep Russia stable.
However, his critics could also make the case that fresh leadership is needed. Meanwhile, a recession in Russia could also lead to an exodus of guest workers from the
poorer ex-Soviet republics, and thus reduced remittances, thereby increasing unemployment in the countries of origin of the guest workers. Tajikistan is one such
example, with remittances making up around 30% of GDP, while in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, the figure is around 33% (these proportions are among the highest in
the world). Both countries could experience greater instability, especially Tajikistan, which has become increasingly illiberal in recent years. Indeed, a renewed civil
war in Tajikistan cannot be ruled out, although memories of the 1992-1997 conflict will act as a constraint.
In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro’s regime could finally give way to a coup or renewed uprising, as a result of reduced revenues from lower oil prices, or
reduced support from a weaker Russia. However, even if a new government comes to power, the political and economic outlook in Venezuela would remain dire for
many years to come, given the gradual erosion of the country’s public infrastructure as well as lack of investment in oil capacity, which has caused output to decline
sharply in recent years.
Possible Escalation Of Global Military Tensions
Adverse domestic economic conditions could prompt individual leaders to shore up their support by focusing public
anger against an external adversary or rival. In some cases, this would lead to an increase in military tensions . As noted, US
President Donald Trump could blame China for the recession and step up support for Taiwan or increase the US naval presence
in the S outh C hina S ea, prompting Beijing to respond accordingly. Iran , too, would remain a focus of US geopolitical
pressure. Although none of the leaderships of these three countries favours conflict , there is a risk that this could happen
by miscalc ulation and by policy misstep. Indeed, a mood of rising nationalism could make it harder for self-portrayed ‘tough’
leaders such as Trump, Xi, and Ayatollah Khamenei to back down from a military standoff. Russian President Vladimir Putin ,
too, could resort to more sabre-rattling, if he senses that the West is weakening due to a global recession , although Russia
itself would also be weaker. Although Putin is unlikely to seek to destabilise the Baltic states, owing to their membership of NATO, he could undertake ‘probing’
measures in their vicinity. The Kremlin could also raise pressure on Georgia in order to dissuade it from seeking to join NATO (although this is likely to backfire) and
step up its support for Republika Srpska, the ethnically Serb and pro-Russian entity of Bosnia-Hercegovina that favours secession.
A World Of Worries
Potential Flashpoints For 'Great Power' Conflicts
Global Climate Change Mitigation Efforts Could Ease Temporarily
A global recession could also put on hold efforts to tackle global climate change , as voters turned their attention to more
immediate ‘bread and butter’ concerns. Climate change was a big international issue during the 2000s, but faded somewhat from the public agenda during
the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, before returning to the fore by the mid-2010s. However, in a more de-globalised world system, climate change may be tackled
more on a regional than global basis.
Longer-Term Political Consequences Of The Next Recession
The longer-term political consequences of the next recession would be determined by its severity and the speed of recovery (see part 3, ‘Recession Risks: What Could
The Next Recession Look Like?’, July 29, 2019), but could have the following consequences:
the US
The world would likely become more de-globalised or ‘regionalised’ as a result of greater economic protectionism and geopolitical self-interest. For its part,
would be unlikely to abandon its commitments to NATO and core allies such as Japan and South Korea, but would continue to
pressure them to raise defence spending accordingly, so that they are less reliant on Washington. If they fail to do so, Washington could
reduce its military presence there in retaliation. The US may meanwhile lose interest in more ‘peripheral’ countries it previously prioritised, such
as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. In Europe, the EU could become more decentralised, or bifurcated between a highly integrated core centred on France and Germany,
and a peripheral zone that has opted out of many integrationist initiatives. Consequently, there could be more tensions between the two ‘tiers’ of the EU.
China’s ability to organise itself as a regional or global leader will depend on how it fares during the next recession. A China that experiences a prolonged period of
considerably slower growth and political instability would be ill-positioned to take the initiative in creating new trade blocs such as the Regional Cooperative
Economic Partnership (RCEP) in Asia or a military alliance system based on countries heavily involved in the Belt And Road. Even so, Japan would also be ill-
positioned to take the regional lead, because its own economy would suffer greatly from a global recession and a Chinese slowdown. Meanwhile, it is unlikely that
India can emerge as a regional economic anchor any time soon, due to the relatively small size of its economy and domestic challenges. If on the other hand China
emerges from the next recession relatively unscathed, as was the case after the 2008-2009 global recession (although very unlikely), then Beijing would have the
confidence to position itself as the champion of a new regional order, and of globalisation more broadly. China could also continue to develop a politico-economic
presence in regions far from its shores, such as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, most probably under the auspices of Belt And Road.
A Robust China Could Take A Lead In Regional Trade
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Signatories
There are likely to be growing calls for universal basic income (UBI) in developed states. Rising public anger at growing inequalities, and concerns about future job
losses as a result of many sectors being automated through technological change, could lead to many governments experimenting with minimum guaranteed income
schemes. There could conceivably be backlashes against automation in some countries, but technological advancements are generally difficult to reverse, absent a
revolution by an extreme group such as Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge in 1975 or the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 1996.
More developed states could feel compelled to emulate the ‘Nordic model’ of a stronger welfare state and a greater balance between capitalism and socialism, in order
to mitigate social instability risks. Even the traditionally most neo-liberal economies in the developed world, such as the US and UK, could feel pressured to adopt the
‘Scandinavian model’, perhaps to forestall a larger anti-systemic political shift at a later date. This would entail a higher tax burden on the wealthy, and on big
business, which could also have the long-term effect of stifling competitiveness somewhat.
Inter-generational tensions could become more pronounced in several developed states. The increasingly elderly demographic cohort could generate resentment from
the younger generation, because taxes will rise for the working-age population to support the retirees. The latter would meanwhile be perceived as a ‘lucky generation’
that benefited from considerable wealth accumulation over a much more economically benign era. These schisms could increasingly play out in the political realm;
indeed, there are already generational gaps evident in support for President Trump in the US and Brexit in the UK, with both phenomena drawing greater popularity
among older voters.
Support for liberal democracy could increasingly wane in the developed world, if liberalism is perceived to have ‘failed’ .
While developed states will remain formally democratic, an initial period of political fragmentation described earlier in this article could be followed by public
demands or desires for stronger leadership. Already, US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini,
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are all examples of leaders of developed countries portraying themselves as strong
leaders capable of dealing with ‘unprecedented’ national challenges. Rising
support for ‘strong leaders’ could result in the erosion of
democratic institutions , while economic nationalism could result in less support for internationalist organisations . Other
similar leaders in emerging markets include Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince
Mohammad bin Salman, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Moreover, many
voters in developed states may conclude that they need
strong leaders for the purposes of taking a tougher stance towards Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin
in particular, who are increasingly strengthening bilateral ties to challenge the liberal international order. That said, we do not expect to see a uniform pattern in
political developments in developed and emerging economies. The fortunes of individual leaders will still be determined by their internal dynamics.
Making the economy sustainable requires growth in the short term, but the aff causes an
immediate global jobs crisis that makes energy transformation impossible---de-growth isn’t
fast enough to solve climate change AND desperate attempts to re-start the economy wreck
the environment
Lola Seaton 20, Assistant Editor at New Left Review, 4/24/20, “In the midst of an economic crisis, can 'degrowth'
provide an answer?” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/24/economic-crisis-degrowth-green-
new-deal
Yet there is one important criticism of degrowth that has been decisively bolstered by the sharp reversal in global
economic fortunes resulting from the coronavirus lockdowns : the consequences for jobs . GDP is a notoriously crude and
partial measure of a society’s wellbeing, failing to account for a whole host of indicative factors including equality, access to energy, the quality
of healthcare, education and social support systems. But when GDP falls or slows because workers cannot produce goods or
offer services, unemployment surges . Coronavirus has brought that reality dramatically home.
As the economist and energy adviser Robert Pollin has written: “the immediate effect of any global GDP contraction would be
huge job losses and declining living standards for working people and the poor. During the Great Recession, global
unemployment rose by over 30 million. I have not seen a convincing argument from a degrowth advocate as to how
we could avoid a severe rise in mass unemployment if GDP were to fall by twice as much .”
The twin crises besetting us – the public health emergency and the unfolding economic trauma triggered by the measures to contain it – have laid
bare much about the configuration of our world that we already knew but rarely fully apprehend: its interconnectedness, its fragility, its stark
inequalities. But these crises have also brought into visceral relief the fact that employment is the heart and soul of the economy. As the British
economist James Meadway has argued, the economic depression now upon us threatens “the most fundamental institution of all in capitalism: the
labor market itself”.
Since we have so little time left in which to stabilize the climate, we must be ruthlessly pragmatic in assessing the
limitations of green strategies. Degrowth is no exception. The scale and speed of investment required to completely
renovate the energy and transportation sectors does not seem conceivable without growth continuing, at least for the
time being . Politically , as long as a steadily rising GDP remains an electoral necessity , it is difficult to imagine a recovery
that doesn’t involve desperate efforts to restore growth – and not necessarily through greener means – by politicians
anxious to revive flagging ratings.
2NC---XT: Innovation
Capitalism saves the environment and the aff destroys it.
Ted Nordhaus 2020, executive director of the Breakthrough Institute, “Must Growth Doom the Planet?” The
New Atlantis, No. 61 (Winter 2020), pp. 76-86
For this reason, degrowth offers no guarantee that environmental impacts will decline. This is all the more so as calls for
degrowth are frequently coupled with demands for a return to simpler, less technological, and non-synthetic systems for the provision of food and
energy and for production of material goods and services. Less affluent economies more dependent upon production systems
that use less technology would substantially increase the resource demands associated with consumption , and would
erode or even entirely offset the benefits of lower levels of consumption .
Indeed, all over the world, poor populations dependent on lowproductivity technologies often require surprisingly
large per capita resource footprints to sustain their meager consumption. One 2012 study in PNAS, for instance, found that the
average West African requires the same amount of land as the average Northern European to support a diet that is
much poorer calorically and offers much less dietary protein.
By contrast , over the last two centuries, a virtuous cycle of rising energy and resource productivity has allowed for
unprecedented levels of human wellbeing . With that has come a growing population—not because people are having more children
but because life expectancies are much higher. Greater prosperity has brought rising material consumption—not mainly because of conspicuous
consumption in the wealthiest societies, but rather the agrarian, energy, and demographic transitions that have allowed much of the global
population to escape rural poverty and achieve something approaching modern living standards.
Growing demand for material goods and services by a growing and increasingly affluent global population has
increased the pressure on natural resources . But it has also led to innovation that has raised resource productivity . In
this way, rising resource productivity has allowed for both continuing economic growth and the increasing
environmental efficiency of the global economy.
Reversing those dynamics will not necessarily result in lower resource usage , or lower environmental impacts .
Lowering demand for resources could as easily result in less-productive resource use as in reduced pressure on
resources. The combination of large post-growth human populations, economic stagnation, and increasingly abundant natural resources might
drive human societies toward less-productive technological systems. The end of growth, in this way, may do more harm to the
planet than good .
2NC---Sustainability
No limits to growth---solar energy and the knowledge economy enable clean growth and
solve climate change better than degrowth
Michael Liebreich 18, Visiting Professor at Imperial College’s Energy Future Lab, “The Secret of Eternal
Growth,” 10/29/18,
http://ifreetrade.org/article/the_secret_of_eternal_growth_the_physics_behind_pro_growth_environmentalism
The earth, however, is not an isolated system . It may be nearly closed, exchanging limited matter across the planetary boundary, but it is
far from isolated, as it receives a huge daily flux of energy from the sun and radiates almost as much away to space. In his book,
Georgescu-Roegen even acknowledged the existence of huge solar energy fluxes, but that didn’t stop him from basing his seminal work on a
scientific error. Later in his career, after ruefully acknowledging his mistake, he invented a Fourth Law of Thermodynamics, claiming that
“material entropy” would forever prevent materials from being perfectly recycled. Pure fake science.
Around the same time as Georgescu-Roegen was making up thermodynamic laws, a group of concerned environmentalists calling themselves the
Club of Rome invited one of the doyens of the new field of computer modelling, Jay Forrester, to create a simulation of the world economy and
its interaction with the environment. In 1972 his marvellous black box produced another best-seller, Limits to Growth (iv), which purported
to prove that almost every combination of economic parameters ended up not just with growth slowing, but with an overshoot and collapse. This
finding, so congenial to the model’s commissioners, stemmed entirely from errors in its structure , as pointed out by a then fresh-faced
young economics professor at Yale, William Nordhaus.
A third foundational work in the degrowth canon is Steady State Economics (v) by Herman Daly, later Senior Economist in the Environment
Department of the World Bank. In it he explains that “the economy is an open subsystem of a finite and nongrowing ecosystem. Any subsystem
of a finite nongrowing system must itself at some point also become nongrowing.” It’s a repeat of Georgescu-Roegen’s error. Daly must have
known it too, since he noted that six days’ worth of radiation from the sun contained more useful energy (or exergy, to give it
its correct name) than that embodied in all the fossil fuel reserves known at the time .
The point here is not that solar power is the key to endless growth, though it could well be - nuclear fission and fusion are other strong
contenders. The point is that when you scratch the surface of any of the seminal tracts of the degrowth movement, you find they are based on the
same fake science, right through to the present day.
Jeremy Rifkin’s 1980 Entropy: a New World View (vi) states that “here on earth material entropy is continually increasing and must ultimately
reach a maximum”. In 2009, Professor Tim Jackson , the favourite anti-capitalist of the TED generation, published Prosperity Without
Growth (vii). In it he pays homage to Daly’s “pioneering case for a ‘steady state economy’” and cheerfully recommends it to students
hungering for alternative wisdom – either not understanding or not caring that it is based on a fallacy .
This matters because, for all that the neo-liberal world economy has delivered extraordinary improvements in living standards – in life
span, levels of education, infant survival, maternal health, poverty reduction, leisure, and so on (viii) – it is currently failing to address
severe, systemic environmental challenges, first and foremost among them climate change . Unless the free-trade, pro-
growth, pro-trade right offers a coherent plan, it is ceding the argument to the degrowth, anti-capitalist, anti-trade left.
Climate change is real, serious, and urgent. That recent IPCC 1.5°C report is based on rigorous research. Of course climate change is
being co-opted by the “Academic Grievance Studies” brigade (ix), but that doesn’t make the underlying physical science less real. As the world
continues to burn through its remaining carbon budget, as temperatures continue to rise, as the ‘signal’ of climate damage becomes clearer against
the background ‘noise’ of weather, the demand for dramatic action will only increase.
Limiting the impact of climate change will require the application of technology , both new and yet-to-be-developed, on a
heroic scale. Destroying the ability of the world economy to deliver these solutions is the very opposite of what we
should be doing. And that is where Nordhaus and Romer come in.
Romer’s great contribution was to identify the contribution of knowledge to economic growth. Before his Endogenous
Growth Theory, no one could explain differences in growth rates of as much as 10 percent between countries at a similar stage of development.
Romer’s work is the perfect riposte to those who think that economic growth is the same thing as ever-increasing
physical material use and pollution; it is also the perfect riposte to those who believe that extractive industries can ever deliver long-term
wealth and those who believe the same of agricultural subsidies and import tariffs.
Nordhaus, for his part, was the creator of the first Integrated Assessment Models, bringing together the physics of climate change, its economic
impact, and the functioning of the economy. He was also the first person to suggest that attaching a cost to emissions – low at first but rising –
would squeeze greenhouse gases out of the economy. Nordhaus is no climate fundamentalist, famously diverging from the view propounded in
the Stern Review, that the world needs super-high carbon taxes immediately. Nordhaus accepted that environmental challenges and climate
change will act as a drag on the economy but, unlike others before him, he quantified the drag and showed that it is highly unlikely to reverse
economic growth.
Nordhaus and Romer are not the only Nobel Prize-winners whose work suggests that an open, liberal, trade-friendly economy – though
one pricing in externalities – will do a better job of addressing climate change and other environmental problems than
stalling or reversing economic growth.
Simon Kuznets, who won the 1971 Nobel Prize for Economics (x), described how a variable can get worse in the early phases of a country’s
development, and then improve as growth continues. He focused mainly on inequality, but the Environmental Kuznets Curves has been shown to
govern most forms of local pollution.
Ilya Prigogine won the 1977 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his research into non-equilibrium “dissipative” structures – how a
flow of energy
across closed system can drive the creation of “order out of chaos ” (xi). This is a real scientific expert on entropy proving that
the economy can grow for as long as there is still a sun in the sky (which would give us about another five billion years).
No mindset shift
Freya Matthews 17, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Philosophy at La Trobe University, 5/26/17, “Nature as
the Law Within Us,” https://www.humansandnature.org/nature-as-the-law-within-us
So it seems we are, as environmentalists, inevitably driven towards a definition of “nature” as the rest of life on Earth—the realm of other-
than-human components of the biosphere. It is other-than-human species, beings, communities—trees and grasses, fungi, animals, wetlands,
forests, and so on—that we are seeking to protect.
But to understand nature in this sense and then to declare that we are morally required to acknowledge its entitlement to its own
existence—generally on the grounds that we are not superior to it, inasmuch as it actually shares the mental
properties that dualists attribute exclusively to humans—may be asking too much . For it suggests that as humans we
should assume a minimalist , hands-off position with respect to trees, grasses, ecosystems, etc., leaving them as far
as possible to their own devices. Were we genuinely to embrace such an ethic, we would surely be obliged to cut back our human
population by orders of magnitude and minimize our cultural and technological agency, restricting ourselves to something like
the lifestyle of our primitive hominid ancestors. Whatever the moral merits of such a minimalist conclusion, it has
no hope whatsoever of being accepted by contemporary modern societies .
Degrowth solvency is aspirational, not causal
Mark Hawkins 21, MSc in Environment, Politics and Development from the University of London, January
2021, “Imagining a Post-Development Future: What can the Degrowth and Rights of Nature Debates Offer Each
Other,” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348785651_Imagining_a_Post-
Development_Future_What_can_the_Degrowth_and_Rights_of_Nature_Debates_Offer_Each_Other
A justified question can be now raised: why is there a need for degrowth here ? It is certainly true that there are already strong
post-development ideologies that are closely linked to the RoN in, especially, Latin America. In Bolivia and Ecuador,
the RoN are envisaged as a key way of achieving the aims of Sumak Kawsay (in Kichwa, used in Ecuador's constitution
(Preamble)), Suma Qamaña (in Aymara, used in Bolivia’s constitution (II.7)), both sometimes translated as Buen Vivir (the good
life, or good living in Spanish). In many ways these are similar to degrowth in their aim of moving away from a planet
destroying eco-social system based on constant growth to one based on sufficiency. However , Sumak Kawsay, Suma
Qamaña and Buen Vivir do not constitute a frontal assault on growth and can (and have been) appropriated as
justifications for other political projects reliant on extraction, destructive of the environment and local communities
and aiming at growth. In the same vein the RoN are not themselves sufficient in the long run as a limiter to
environmental woes, the appropriation of land, the dispossession of the vulnerable and so on. A strong challenge to growth itself
thus compliments the RoN in its aims and is arguably necessary for a truly secure transition from forms of
economic and social organization that are ultimately destructive. This becomes evident when we look at some early
challenges faced by the RoN in Bolivia and Ecuador.
1NC---AT: International Leadership
The U.S. isn’t key internationally
Caroline McDonough 19, J.D. Candidate, Villanova Charles Widger School of Law, 2019, “COMMENT: WILL
THE RIVER EVER GET A CHANCE TO SPEAK? STANDING UP FOR THE LEGAL RIGHTS OF NATURE,”
Villanova Environmental Law Journal, 31 Vill. Envtl. L.J. 143
Support for this legal " rights of nature " movement gained an impressive foothold in foreign countries and
continues to make small strides in the U nited S tates as well. 6The movement seeks to confer legal rights, or "legal personhood,"
onto nature in order to bring a claim against governments or individuals who harm the environment. 7Around the world, ecosystem organizations
most commonly [*144] attempt to secure legal rights for rivers and other bodies of water. 8
The highest-profile domestic attempt to secure legal rights for the environment was filed on behalf of the Colorado River in 2017. 9Although this
litigation was stopped in its tracks, the case is emblematic of more successful litigation and regulations that secured legal rights for nature around
the country, albeit on a smaller scale. 10State and town governments in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire have previously contemplated,
or are currently contemplating, enacting laws that would grant legal rights to local ecosystems. 11
While the movement in the United States has progressed slowly, it has enjoyed markedly more success
internationally . 12Almost fifteen years ago, Ecuador drafted a new national constitution explicitly providing legal rights for nature, or
"Pachamama." 13Permitting "all persons, communities, peoples and nations [to] call upon public authorities to enforce the rights of nature,"
Ecuador's constitutional provision has been incorporated into the country's criminal and environmental codes to protect the right of nature. 14
In another noteworthy case, the New Zealand government granted legal rights to the Whanganui River in order to resolve a long-standing
property dispute with the Maori Tribe. 15New Zealand's recognition of the river as a living entity explicitly articulated the rights it possessed.
16Despite the progress in both Ecuador and [*145] New Zealand functioning as a model for countries around the
world who seek to accomplish the same goals, headway in the United States has failed to rise above the grassroots
level and remains an open-ended question in the courts. 17
2NC---AT: International Leadership
Other countries generate momentum and US substantive actions short of legal
transformation solve
Oliver A. Houck 17, Professor of Law, Tulane University, Winter 2017, “ARTICLE: Noah's Second Voyage: The
Rights of Nature As Law,” Tulane Environmental Law Journal, 31 Tul. Envtl. L.J. 1
All of this said, one may fairly conclude from this that the U nited S tates, nevertheless, is farther along toward legal rights in nature
that it knows. Without mentioning the name, it already recognizes and enforces the entitlement of all living things to exist
and has pioneered significant instruments toward this end including impact assessment , citizen suits , and judicial
review . In the meantime, it has also launched major restoration projects for mid-western prairies, southern pine forests,
and ecosystems as large as the Everglades, Gulf Coast wetlands, and the Chesapeake Bay. 125These are all elements
of the rights of nature and in a [*23] bottom-up fashion , by deed if not in word, the U nited S tates is coming on board.
Other countries are following suit, indeed have led the way . As early as 1917 the Russian Federation began the
creation of zapavedniki, nature preserves in which humans themselves are not allowed to enter save as scientific
purposes, creating in effect the largest and most protective wilderness system in the world. 126For its part, Brazil, hosting
one of the largest inventories of rare species on earth, has pledged that all of them will be under conservation
management by 2020, and 20% on their way to recovery. 127Taking a different tack, Germany's constitution has made protection
of "the foundations of nature and animals" a national priority, applicable to government agencies, the legislature and the judiciary
alike. 128In so doing, it eschewed language focused on the foundations of "human" life in favor of "nature and animals,"
an explicit embrace of the ecocentric point of view . 129This provision has been cited in over 700 cases (including one
protecting a rare plant from a major dredging project on the River Elbe), 130which of course does not include the more numerous acts of
compliance that drew no litigation at all.
The E uropean U nion, spurred forward by its Wild Birds and Habitat Directives, 131has approached the same task yet more
comprehensively with Natura 2000. 132Despite the differences of its twenty-eight member countries and the relative paucity of public
lands, a network of more than [*24] 200 protected areas spanning eighty-four "bio-regions" has emerged. 133They are
not wilderness. For the most part they are dotted with towns, roads, and a range of compatible development but managed by member
states with a single bottom line: the viability of species and the habitats on which they and humans alike depend.
134Decisions of the European Court of Justice on challenges to Natura 2000 have been broadly supportive, some obviously written to boost it
forward. 135In a recently completed, two-year "fitness check" (prompted by development interests), the European Commission wound up
endorsing the program as well, perhaps influenced by overwhelming support from the public at large (more than 550,000 comments in favor).
136The pulses of nature in Europe, too, find strong receptors in the human mind.
Another meta-analysis of statistical studies on water wars shows a tiny risk of conflict and
a much higher risk of cooperation
P. Michael Link 16, Research Group on Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography, and Research Unit
on Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Earth System Analysis and Sustainability, University of Hamburg,
“Conflict and cooperation in the water-security nexus: a global comparative analysis of river basins under climate
change,” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, Volume 3, Issue 4, July/August 2016, pp. 495-515
In this paper, we give the reader a comprehensive overview of the current state of research and provide an up-to-date
review of statistical studies on conflict and cooperation around transboundary river basins. Extending previous work, we
conduct a systematic assessment and open the debate for the subsequent presentation of an integrative conceptual framework of the water-
security-conflict nexus, which is exemplarily applied to the cases of the Nile River Basin and the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river systems.
Cross-case studies exploring historical trends in transboundary water conflicts find that conflictive interactions are
rare .4,27,28 Since 1948, supposedly 37 violent conflicts occurred, in which water played a major role. Thirty of these conflicts alone were
fought between Israel and its neighbors. On the other hand, there were 1831 ‘water-related incidents’ in the past 50 years in
TFDD, of which more than two thirds were of a cooperative nature .19 The IRCC database even lists 4797 events in the same time
period but also concludes that most of the recorded events are cooperative .23 De Stefano and others27 find that between 1948 and
1999 and from 2000 until 2008, there have been moves toward less cooperative interactions between some countries. However, most negative
events were rather moderate expressions of discord and hostility with little evidence of violent conflict.
Table 1 summarizes the large-N literature on water and transboundary conflict. Similar to the assessment of Johnson and others,26 we found
strong dissent in this literature. Few studies investigate the links between reduced precipitation or hydropower development and violent intrastate
conflict, and the results are quite ambiguous. By contrast, there is agreement among the four studies conducted that low water availability
increases the risk for interstate disputes, especially between neighboring states. However, when exploring the relationship between adjacent
countries with shared rivers, only five studies claim that a shared river increases the risk for violent conflicts between states, while 12 studies find
robust treaties and institutions can mitigate water-related conflict and facilitate
no support for such a link. Furthermore,
cooperation even under hydrological stress.45,48,49
Despite evidence that water-related interactions are more often cooperative than conflictive, there has been a strong bias in water research on
conflictive events. However, there are studies that find that signing of a
water treaty positively influences future cooperation
between the treaty partners e.g.,50 that water scarcity has a significant and positive relationship with the existence of
river treaties,51 and that water scarcity enhances the incentives for riparians to cooperate.42 When considering nonlinear
relationships, certain studies found a curvilinear relationship between the likelihood of cooperation and water scarcity.52–54 This suggests that
transboundary water cooperation is most likely if water is neither extraordinarily scarce nor abundant. The projected amplification of hydro-
climates55 thus has the potential to reduce international water cooperation.
In sum, research largely indicates that there is little evidence that shared rivers per se increase the risk of violent conflict between riparians. Water
scarcity, by contrast, seems to make violent interactions between states, including those sharing river basins, more likely. However, this
effect can be mitigated via well-designed institutions.56More importantly, water scarcity is empirically more likely to
produce treaties and other forms of cooperation, while water-related interactions in general are more often
cooperative than conflictive . There is no convergence on the conditions and pathways leading to either conflict or cooperation.
Water conflicts are either battles in pre-existing wars or tiny village disputes
Patricia Wouters 13, University of Dundee Center for Water Law, Policy, and Science, “Reframing the Water
Security Dialogue,” 11/25/13, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers2.cfm?abstract_id=2359854
Water stress is real. The question is how serious is the future risk of large-scale water-driven violence? To date, the lessons of history are that the
risk is not great, but this is not a definitive answer. There are documented instances of violence connected to water disputes,
but most of this, especially related to water shortage,30 is localised and short-lived ,31 as demonstrated in the Water Conflict
Chronology maintained by the Pacific Institute.32 The latest version of this work starts with the Sumerian account of a flood to punish the sinful
abuse of the earth and ends with a Hezbollah attack on an Israeli wastewater treatment plant. However, most of the modern serious
incidents involve either the targeting of water facilities during a war ,33 or occur in small village disputes in Asia,
Africa and Latin America. While it might be tempting to analogise water to the two natural resources which have sparked
violent conflicts and regional tensions, (and certainly sensationalises the issue ), we argue that the current concept of water
stress as a source of armed conflict and regional unrest is too broad to draw serious policy conclusions, and, might
prove an unhelpful distraction that diverts from focussing instead on exploring more fully the range of options available to countries to address
water stress.34 The concept of military security is, in its essence, a zero sum game; water resources management (including water law), by
comparison, offers a range of opportunities for balancing interests to meet security needs related to such core issues as availability, access and
addressing conflicts-of-use.35
`Blue gold' or the next oil analogy is problematic conceptually, with several key shortcomings. First, unlike oil (or gold), water is universally,
albeit unequally, distributed throughout the world. Secondly, in contrast to oil, it is not always economically efficient to move water long
distances. The demand for small quantities may not justify the infrastructure. Thirdly, water has economic value, but it does not trade in world
markets. Raw water, running free or stored or diverted, is most likely not a `good' under the GATT.36 The question of who is entitled to secure
access to water, and what the flow should be, within or beyond national boundaries raises issues well beyond the blue gold/next oil context. In
fact, despite serious water stress in some regions , disputes have been avoided in large part , with a burgeoning
number of international agreements setting forth plans for joint management regimes.37 Is this not a more relevant line of
enquiry ± exploring the relevance and role of water law in addressing water security issues and inviting innovative thinking within and beyond
the discipline?
There have been 1,800 interactions on transboundary basins, and only seven have led to
violence---and climate change will cause even more cooperation
Magdalena Mis 15, writer for Reuters, citing Therese Sjomander Magnusson of the Stockholm International Water
Institute, “'Water wars are a myth': expert says many governments eager to cooperate,” 8/24/15,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-water-war-idUSKCN0QT0R120150824
STOCKHOLM (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The doom and gloom predictions of increasing battles around the world over
water are a myth , with only a handful of disagreements over shared waters leading to armed conflict, an expert said.
Competition over water has often been cited as having a potential for turning into conflicts between countries fighting
to secure the limited resource.
While water is fundamental to development and national security and can contribute to hostile situations, " very
few" disagreements have
led to conflict , said Therese Sjomander Magnusson of the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI).
" It is a myth that water leads to war," Sjomander Magnusson, SIWI's director of transboundary water management, told the Thomson
Reuters Foundation late on Sunday on the sidelines of a global water conference in Stockholm.
She said that over the last 50 years, there have been more than 1,800 interactions on transboundary basins - including both
conflict and cooperation.
"Only seven disputes have involved violence," she said. "During the same time, more than 200 agreements and treaties on
transboundary waters have been signed."
According to a United Nations report published in March, the world faces a 40 percent shortfall in water supplies in 15 years due to urbanization,
population growth and increasing demand for water for food production, energy and industry. [ID: nL5N0WC2ZD]
Even though population growth and climate change have led to disagreements over water , conflicts were more
common on national levels – such as between pastoralists and farmers - than between countries, Sjomander Magnusson said.
In fact, she said, many governments are looking into dialogue and cooperation when it comes to water, rather than sending
armies against each other.
"In an insecure world that we are facing right now, with many unstable situations, what we've seen over and over again is
how governments are eager to position themselves as a stable countries open to cooperation," Sjomander Magnusson said.
One unlikely example in which water issues have led to cooperation is discussions between Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian
Territories over the Jordan River, which runs along their borders, she said.
" This is the only platform where these countries have met for the past couple of years."
1NC----I-Law Defense
I-law is redundant and irrelevant
David Glazier 9, Professor of Law at the Loyola Law School Los Angeles, December 2009, "PLAYING BY
THE RULES: COMBATING AL QAEDA WITHIN THE LAW OF WAR" William and Mary Law Review, Lexis
But even the most cursory study of the law of war quickly reveals the fallacy of this view. Virtually every society
that has left a written record has documented legal constraints on the conduct of hostilities. n133 The law of war
constitutes a major portion of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century international law treatises. n134 The explosive
growth of i nternational law in the twentieth century, including the proliferation of multinational organizations and
international courts, as well as the development of such new fields as international environmental and human rights
law, relegated the law of war to relative obscurity . Today, it typically occupies just a single chapter in an
international law text. n135 This is ironic given the equally expansive development of the law of war during this
same era n136 but may explain why expertise on this subject seems so limited among policymakers.
2NC---I-Law Defense
Violations are inevitable in the U.S. and globally, but there’s no impact because i-
law’s toothless
Luke Hiken 12, JD, Attorney Who Has Engaged in the Practice of Criminal, Military, Immigration, and
Appellate Law, and Marti Hiken, Former Associate Director of the Institute for Public Accuracy and Former Chair
of the National Lawyers Guild Military Law Task Force, “The Impotence of International Law”, Foreign Policy in
Focus, 7/17/2012, https://fpif.org/the_impotence_of_international_law/
Whenever a lawyer or historian describes how a particular action “violates international law” many people stop
listening or reading further. It is a bit alienating to hear the words “this action constitutes a violation of international
law” time and time again – and especially at the end of a debate when a speaker has no other arguments available.
The statement is inevitably followed by: “…and it is a war crime and it denies people their human rights.” A
plethora of international law violations are perpetrated by every major power in the world each day , and thus, the
empty invocation of i nternational law does nothing but reinforce our own sense of impotence and helplessness in
the face of international lawlessness.
The U nited S tates, alone, and on a daily basis violates every principle of international law ever
envisioned : unprovoked wars of aggression ; unmanned drone attacks ; tortures and renditions ; assassinations of
our alleged “enemies”; sales of nuclear weapons ; destabilization of unfriendly governments ; creating the largest
prison population in the world – the list is virtually endless .
Obviously one would wish that there existed a body of international law that could put an end to these abuses, but
such laws exist in theory , not in practice . Each time a legal scholar points out the particular treaties being ignored
by the superpowers (and everyone else) the only appropriate response is “so what!” or “they always say that.” If
there is no enforcement mechanism to prevent the violations, and no military force with the power to intervene on
behalf of those victimized by the violations, what possible good does it do to invoke principles of “truth and justice”
that border on fantasy ?
The assumption is that by invoking human rights principles, legal scholars hope to reinforce the importance of and
need for such a body of law. Yet, in reality, the invocation means nothing at the present time, and goes nowhere . In
the real world, it would be nice to focus on suggestions that are enforceable, and have some potential to prevent the
atrocities taking place around the globe. Scholars who invoke international law principles would do well to add to
their analysis, some form of action or conduct at the present time that might prevent such violations from happening.
Alternatively, praying for rain sounds as effective and rational as citing international legal principles to a
lawless president , and his ruthless military .
2NC---LOAC Fails
LOAC can’t solve and there’s no impact – enforcing regulations on tech is
impossible, but there’s not a breakout prolif threat
Kenneth Anderson 12, and Matthew Waxman 11-26-2012 Kenneth Anderson is professor of law at
Washington College of Law, American University Matthew Waxman is a law professor at Columbia Law School,
“Human Rights Watch Report on Killer Robots, and Our Critique” http://www.lawfareblog.com/2012/11/human-
rights-watch-report-on-killer-robots-and-our-critique/
At a more fundamental level than any of these specific differences, though, our view is that autonomy in weapons systems will
develop very incrementally. Instead of some determinate, ascertainable break-point between the human-controlled system
and the machine-controlled one, it is far more likely that the evolution of weapons technology will be gradual, slowly and
indistinctly eroding the role of the human in the firing loop. As to a preemptive prohibition on developing such
systems (distinct from deploying them), even if it were desirable, the technologies at the heart of such weapons are
fundamentally the same as at the heart of a wide variety of civilian or non-weapons military systems, and weapons
systems will frequently be so interwoven into the machine system as a whole that disentangling what’s prohibited and
what’s not, and at what point in the path of weapons development, will not be feasible .