Professional Documents
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Hierarchical systems, modularity, loose and tight coupling, connectedness (e.g. scale-free and small world
networks) high-reliability organization processes, bounded rationality, heuristics on cues from the environment,
strange attractors, and fractals are some other principles in complexity.
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Newton’s second law states that force equals mass times acceleration. Newton’s law of
gravity states that the force of attraction (F) between 2 masses M1 and M2:
F = (-1)*G * (M1 * M2)/ R2
where R is the distance separating the two masses, G is the universal gravitational constant,
and the negative sign signifies a force of attraction (and not a force of repulsion). A similar
equation applies for force of attraction or repulsion between (electrically) charged particles
and poles of magnets2.
2.2. First law of thermodynamics. Matter (or energy) can neither be created nor destroyed;
it can only be transformed from one form to another. This means that sum of matter (or
energy) before a transformation will equal the sum of matter (or energy) after the
transformation.
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The reliance on differentiation entails that the Left Hand Derivative must always equal the Right Hand
derivative. Such a condition cannot be met for phenomena involving irreversibility.
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4.0. So, if models of decision-making based on Newtonian mechanics and first law of
thermodynamics are inappropriate, what further considerations need to be extended by
managers? [i.e. what models should mangers use?]
This is a very broad question. I do not have a complete answer. I suppose no one will ever
have a complete answer to this question. However, we can definitely consider some later
developments in the sciences and strive to build better (more realistic) models for decision-
making.
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For example, drive on one particular side of the road; but, give way to pedestrians and cyclists; AND, be aware
that junior people or seniors or unmindful people may suddenly come in the way, etc.
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5.1.1. What has Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle got to do with management thinking?
Plenty.
Example 1: External entities (financial analysts, consultants, members of the media) often
pressurize managers to measure more and more things, and report metrics therefrom. What
goes under-appreciated is that the very act of attempting to measure something can alter a
phenomenon; the result is that the measurement obtained is different—and possibly more
negatively tilted—from what was the case previously. Consider this question: When would
you feel more comfortable in engaging with your work with heart and soul?
(a) When there is someone looking over you, watching your every move and making mental
notes as to what to report to the Bosses. OR
(b) When you are left in peace, having been conferred sufficient autonomy to carry out a task
to the best of your judgment and ability.
Speaking bluntly, a manager from Hell is one who does not have the ability to create
conditions that enable capable employees realize their potential.
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5.2.2. It is believed that light consists of discrete packets of energy, called quanta or photons.
The amount of energy E, for light having wavelength ν is given by E = h* ν, where h is the
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It may be noted that Quantum Theory has advanced quite a bit, beyond the layman description I provide. In
fact it has been challenged by String Theory, Loop Theory, etc. For our purposes the simple description above
will suffice.
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Planck’s constant. An electron in a specified lower orbit around the (positively charged)
nucleus in an atom may absorb one photon and jump to a specific higher orbit. Likewise, an
electron may emit a photon to jump to a specific lower orbit. Since a photon cannot be
divided, electrons cannot reside in the inter-orbital space. Moreover, an electron gains
potential energy by absorbing photons: possession of this potential energy is the reason that
an electron does not spiral into the positively charged nucleus (as electrodynamic
phenomenon would otherwise require).
5.2.3. What has Quantum Theory got to do with management thinking?
Plenty.
First note the discontinuity introduced by the quantum concept. This is significant
because discontinuous functions do not admit to differentiation and integration5: the
Newtonian straightjacket that all phenomena must meet the demands from a few
differential equations is finally cast away. One eagerly awaits the day when Economics will
do likewise and bring fresh theory, better-grounded in reality!
Managers need to identify discontinuities in their decision-making parameters, and
not rely on equations that fail to provide for discontinuity. For example, fixed costs go up in
steps (for increasing capacity). Moreover, you cannot use half-a-factory. You may split the
cost of a factory with a collaborator, but that will bring in issues regarding decision-rights6. If
your factory can employ a Welder for only part of the day, you may still have to pay a full
day’s wages because the Welder will refuse to come to the factory premises otherwise. Etc.
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Whether piece-wise differentiation / integration will be useful is a function of context. Certain activity like
eating food in a healthy way, building expertise, having a baby etc. need a fixed amount of time, no matter what.
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Consider, for instance the demand from the activist investors behind the Children’s Growth Fund (who owned
~2% stock in Coal India) that Coal India must sell coal to NTPC and others at prices much higher than present.
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moving. This can be experienced: Think of the sound of the siren of a train, when you are
stationary AND
(a) The train is stationary.
(b) The train is moving towards you.
(c) The train is moving in a direction away from you.
You will experience the sound of the siren in three different ways7.
From above we may deduce that, when the trajectories of the two companies C1 and
C2 are different:
If X1 is true to a manager M1 in company C1 with respect to a particular event,
X2 is true with regard to the same event and context (where X2 is different from X1) to a
manager M2 in the other company C2.
Thus, even the brightest of managers may misread competitor moves and take actions
that eventually prove to be disastrous for his/her company. For example, the company C1
may have dropped prices in a particular market to clear inventory and move out. If company
C2 —interpreting C1‘s move as a hostile action—retaliates by dropping prices in the same
(and/or other) market8, a price war may ensue, hurting all industry players. On the other hand
if C2 spent the effort to find out why C1 dropped prices, it would have found little cause for
concern, and avoided the showdown (and monetary losses), directing energy to more
productive areas instead. Sensitivity to concepts of relativity may help here. At the bare
minimum, the cost of finding out C1’s motive should be compared with the cost (revenue
loss) of incorrect interpretation (and other relevant costs), in order to make better decisions.
Thus, the oft-repeated saying in Economics that people (or companies) act self-
interestedly all the time is not just wrong, it is misleading. The fact that managers may be
mistaken in interpreting actions of others is a much bigger problem needing urgent
attention. We may note that, one strand of Western philosophical thought (positivism)
underlying much of conventional business school advocacy that there is one version of truth
applicable in the same way for everybody—in conjunction with Hobbesian premises
articulated in The Leviathan—is partly to blame for this state of affairs9.
Anyway back to relativity theory: At the turn of the 20th century, a new mathematical
transformation was discovered that could preserve the structure of Maxwell’s equations when
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Scientists call this phenomenon the “Doppler Effect”.
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Retaliation by dropping prices is a standard prescription of formulae drawn from the Newtonian paradigm.
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The postmodern school of philosophical thought leads the struggle to free science from the stranglehold of
positivism. In the Iowa Conference (1969) philosophers of science acknowledged that the received view version
of positivism is incorrect and voted for abandoning it. Unfortunately, significant segments of management
research continues to labor fruitlessly under a discredited version of positivism, namely logical empiricism.
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moving from one frame to another, the Lorentz transformation. If taken literally, the Lorentz
transformation implies that time and length do actually change, depending on which frame of
reference you are in.
General relativity was built on Einstein’s special relativity. In 1905 Einstein
postulated the principle of relativity: that all inertial frames are equivalent, the observer’s
motion (with constant velocity) is irrelevant, and that all laws of physics should have the
same form in all inertial frames. Hence time and space are no longer absolute and change
their properties when changing from one inertial frame to another.
Fourth, heat at low temperature is a low quality energy, with limited uses. Electricity
and Mechanical energy (e.g. rotation of a pump by electricity to lift water to a height confers
mechanical or potential energy to the latter) are high quality energy: they can be converted
to other forms of energy with low loss. Chemical energy—as from petrol, or from a fuel cell
running on hydrogen and oxygen—is of intermediate quality. The loss in conversion is a bit
more than the loss when electricity or mechanical energy is converted to other forms. Coal
with lot of ash content would come towards the bottom of the ladder of energy quality, since
a substantial part of the energy has to be rejected as waste heat, when one tries to extract
electrical energy from coal in a thermal power plant. The bottommost rung is heat at close to
room temperature. Also recall Carnot’s principle: if you use up 70 units of electricity to take
water at room temperature (30 degrees Celsius) to 100 degrees Celsius, you will get back
only a tiny fraction (less than 10%) as electricity should you have a machine that takes the
water at 100 degrees as input and extracts electricity, in the process bringing back the
temperature of the water to room temperature10.
5.4.1. What has the second law of thermodynamics got to do with management thinking?
The second law of thermodynamics is at the heart of the discipline of strategic management. I
will provide two indicative examples.
Example 1: According Lachmann (from the Austrian School of Economics) Entrepreneurial
Managers imagine certain future states of the world and commit large amount of resources
and time to have the successful products and services in place in that future date. For
example, looking at the transportation problem in cities, one entrepreneur thinks that the
hyper-loop is the solution. Another innovator may focus on developing flying shoes. A third
may consider zeppelin balloon kind of vehicle. Yet another may favor a network of
underground tunnels (e.g. The Boring Company). The future that will materialize will be the
net of all these innovation actions. Parts of the technology developed by several different
entrepreneurs may go to fashion something entirely unanticipated.
The entrepreneur commits time and resources in order to generate a coherent pool of
negentropy. The entrepreneur believes that once (s)he spends time and effort to fashion that
pool of negentropy, it will pay handsomely. The commitment is largely irreversible. Often it
has only the vision and persuasiveness of the entrepreneur to support it. Once a concept is
proven though, imitators will come in. But they will face time-compression diseconomies:
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The remainder of the energy gets dissipated as waste heat.
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either they have to spend a lot of time carrying out research to reach where the entrepreneur
is, OR they have to pay a steep market price to buy out the entrepreneur11 (and be satisfied
with incremental improvements thereafter).
Example 2. Unlocking (one-time) shareholder value by dissipating negentropy. Intel makes
motherboards and microprocessors. Several times in its chequered career, Intel has received
offers from the financial markets to divide into two separate companies—one focusing on
motherboards, another focusing on microprocessors. Analysts estimate that the value of the
shares of 2 separate companies will be 3X or more! Yet Intel has resisted (helped, in no little
measure, by the US Government, which considers Intel a strategic, national asset). The
synergy between the 2 divisions allows Intel to accomplish many things which standalone
companies cannot. It took many years to build this. Once divided, it may take many years to
build back this synergy, should it be needed (time-compression diseconomy, again). Yet, it is
a fact that one-time shareholder value (in $$) can definitely be unlocked by breaking Intel
into two. However, a short while after the division, Intel A and Intel B will become pale
shadows of their former self. By that time though, the Funds that encouraged Intel to break
up would have pocketed the gains from the temporary rise in share-price and offloaded the
shares of Intel A and B to some unfortunate Pension Fund or Insurance Fund or similar12.
6.1. Critical Mass. Originally it meant to signify the threshold after which a nuclear fission
reaction becomes self-sustaining—i.e. no longer requires bombardment with sub-atomic
particles from outside. In complexity we likewise concern with the first critical point (RC1)
below which Newtonian mechanics applies, and beyond which emergence takes place. For
fluid flow the critical vector is velocity of fluid through the channel. For convection current,
it is the temperature gradient from the earth’s surface to the upper layers of the atmosphere.
The term critical mass is present in Investopedia as well. This refers to the threshold
at which time a company becomes self-sufficient, in the sense that it ceases to require
periodic injection to large amounts of cash in order to carry on13.
Management implication: Don’t go for grabbing the moon* before time: either you
will fall or someone else will take the moon away from your hands. (*going for highly
ambitious projects in your fledgling company). Also note: Some mistakes are forgiven for
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If you come across the case on Nucor in SM-II pay special attention to this point!
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Please see Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s blog to understand how this is done. Involves $2000 wine!
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NN Taleb’s counterview. There are 3 kinds of bankrupt (large) corporations: Cos. (i) that already declared
bankruptcy, (ii) know they are bankrupt but are hiding it, and (iii) that are bankrupt, but they don’t know it yet.
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juveniles, but not of adults. With great power comes great responsibility. The coming into
age of a company (i.e. going past the critical mass) will attract enhanced scrutiny from other
ecosystem players (suppliers, customers, competitors, substitutes, society) and the regulators.
6.2. What was the point of the detailed discussion regarding PV = C(T) and PVγ = C(T)?
This discussion was more philosophy than science. Knowledge is defined as justified true
belief. The justification needs to originate in reliable cognitive processes. This means that,
given a set of (defendable) assumptions, logical deductions by means of mathematical
modeling or computational simulation modeling can serve as statements of theory. Further,
when a theory is seen to hold true for a phenomenon of interest, we can claim to have
obtained some knowledge. Knowing “what”→ data. Knowing “why”→ knowledge!
A constant conjunction (correlation) of events does not qualify as knowledge. For
example, even if we find a thousand times that PV = C(T) for hydrogen, oxygen, ozone, at
100 degrees, at 1000 degrees, on top of a hill on plain ground etc., it will not qualify as
knowledge. The Kinetic Theory of Gases (KTG) articulates the mechanism why pressure (P)
is inversely proportional to volume (V) at constant temperature (T). KTG says that gas
molecules are like tiny spheres in Brownian (random) motion, constantly colliding elastically
with each other and with the walls of a container. For a given extent of kinetic energy
imparted to gas molecules (i.e. for a given temperature), if we shrink the volume of the
container to one-third, the number of collisions per unit area of wall, per unit time, trebles.
This explains why P is inversely proportional to V. Post KTG, PV = C(T) is considered
knowledge.
Later (say upon discovery of the steam engine) when people started working with
cylinders and pistons it was found that PVγ = C(T). Scientists figured that happens because
earlier there was no process for energy transfer from the gas to the surroundings and vice-
versa. For example, work is done to push back the atmosphere when a gas expands in a
cylinder, pushing out the piston. Once scientists incorporated energy transfer processes to
update KTG, PVγ = C(T) could be explained and got the status of knowledge14.
What do managers have to learn from above? Managers must not confuse correlation with
causation. Managers must ask the question why, several times. Hypotheses need to be framed
and tested for confirmatory evidence or otherwise. Moreover, with passage of time, as newer
facets of phenomena come into scope, the answer to the why question will evolve as well.
Example: Leadership theories – transactional, transformational, authentic, servant etc.
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PV = C(T) continues to apply for the cases where the cylinder moves out gently, doing negligible work.