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Postgrad Med, 2015; 127(4): 359–367


DOI: 10.1080/00325481.2015.1022494

CLINICAL FEATURE
ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Odds ratio vs risk ratio in randomized controlled trials


Haribalakrishna Balasubramanian1,2, Anitha Ananthan1,2, Shripada Rao1,2,3 and Sanjay Patole1,3
1
Department of Neonatology, King Edward Memorial Hospital for women and newborns, Perth, Western Australia, Australia, 2Department of Neonatology,
Princess Margaret Hospital for Children, Perth, Western Australia, Australia, and 3Centre for Neonatal Research and Education, University of Western
Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
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Abstract Keywords
Objective. Use of odds ratio (OR) in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has been criticized Odds ratio, risk ratio, randomized controlled
because it overestimates the effect size, if incorrectly interpreted as risk ratio (RR). To what extent trials, effect size
does this make a difference in the context of clinical research is unclear. We, therefore, aimed to
address this issue considering its importance in evidence-based practice of medicine. Methods. History
We reviewed 580 RCTs published in the New England Journal of Medicine between January
Received 26 November 2014
2004 and June 2014 and identified 107 RCTs that reported unadjusted RR (n = 76) or OR (n = 31)
Accepted 20 February 2015
for the primary outcome. For studies reporting ORs, we calculated RRs, and vice versa, using Stata
Published online 7 March 2015
software. The percentage of divergence between the reported and calculated effect size esti-
mates was analyzed. Results. None of the RCTs showed a statistically significant result becoming
insignificant or vice versa depending on the effect size estimate. OR exaggerated the RR in 62%
of the RCTs. The percentage of overestimation was > 50% in 28 RCTs and > 100% in 13 RCTs. The
For personal use only.

degree of overestimation was positively correlated with the prevalence of outcomes (spearman’s
rho = 0.84 and 0.66, p < 0.001). Conclusion. Use of OR instead of RR in RCTs does not change the
qualitative inference of results. However, the use of OR can markedly exaggerate the effect size
in RCTs if misinterpreted as RR and, hence, has the potential to mislead clinicians.

Introduction Methods
Odds ratio (OR) and risk ratio (RR) are the most common We searched PubMed in June 2014 using the following
measures of effect size used in randomized controlled trials terminologies: “The New England Journal of Medicine” and
(RCTs) to compare the frequency of binary outcomes in the “Randomized controlled trial” and keywords Relative Risk
intervention and control groups [1]. Risk is the “probability or Risk Ratio or Odds Ratio. We restricted the search period
of occurrence of an event,” whereas odds are the “probability to 10 years (2004 – 2014).
of the event occurring divided by the probability of the event To be eligible for inclusion, the RCTs should have reported
not occurring” [2,3]. RR is the “ratio of risk of the outcome the number of participants and events in each group, and the
in the two groups.” OR is the “ratio of the odds of the unadjusted RR or OR. RCTs, where the primary outcome was
outcome in the two groups” [2,3]. continuous or those that reported hazard ratio, relative risk
OR and RR are mathematically not equivalent from the reduction, efficacy rates, absolute risk difference and incidence
point of statistical interpretation [4]. Textbooks on statistics and rate ratio, were excluded. RCTs where only adjusted OR or
epidemiology state that the OR exaggerates the RR, especially RR were given were also excluded. We also excluded nonin-
if the outcome of interest is frequent (> 10%), but this does not feriority trials with one-sided confidence limits. Trials report-
affect the qualitative inference of the results [5,6]. ing RR and those reporting ORs were grouped separately.
Use of OR in RCTs has been criticized because it overesti-
mates the effect size if the OR is incorrectly interpreted as
Statistical analysis
the RR [7-12]. The mathematical truism involving RR and
OR clearly explains the potential for overestimation. To what Statistical analysis was conducted using the Stata 13.1 soft-
extent does this make a difference in real life in the context ware (Statacorp LP, 4905, Lakeway Drive, College Station,
of clinical research is unclear. We, therefore, aimed to address Texas, USA). ORs and RRs were calculated for studies in
this issue considering its importance in evidence-based group 1 and group 2, respectively, using the raw data. Exact
practice of medicine. confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained for the calculated

Correspondence: Haribalakrishna Balasubramanian, Department of Neonatology, King Edward Memorial Hospital for women and newborns, Bagot
Road, Subiaco, Perth, Western Australia 6008, Australia. E-mail: doctorhbk@gmail.com
 2015 Informa UK Ltd.
360 H. Balasubramanian et al. Postgrad Med, 2015; 127(4):359–367

estimates. Logarithmic transformations of the reported and Discussion


calculated effect size estimates were performed to assess the
Our results indicate that qualitative interpretation is not
divergence between the two relative measures of association.
altered by the type of effect size estimate in RCTs, i.e., a sta-
The following formula was used to calculate the percentage
tistically significant result did not become insignificant and
of overestimation: [(ln OR – ln RR)/ln RR]  100. The per-
vice versa. Compared to RR, OR overestimated the effect
centage of overestimation > 10% was considered relevant.
size in 44% of the included RCTs. Larger the treatment effect
The correlation between the extent of overestimation and the
and higher the prevalence of outcome in either groups,
prevalence of outcome, and sample size in the included
greater was the percentage of overestimation.
RCTs was assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation
To our knowledge, this is the first study assessing the
coefficients. p Values < 0.05 were considered statistically
influence of OR vs RR on the qualitative inference of results.
significant. Scatter graphs were created to provide visual
We restricted our analyses to clinical trials and chose to study
impression of the correlation between prevalence of outcome
only primary outcomes since the impact of a trial intervention
and sample size with the percentage of overestimation.
mainly applies for the primary outcome for which the trial is
Wherever logarithmic scales were used, the minimum
powered.
percentage of overestimation was considered as 0.1% to
Conversion of adjusted OR to RR may result in a biased
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avoid plotting errors.


estimate unless the raw data are made available [13-15].
Hence, we used only unadjusted values to conduct head-to-
Results head comparison of OR and RR to detect their true influence
Initial broad search yielded a total of 580 citations. We on effect size.
excluded trials where primary outcome was a measured CIs and p values are the two parameters used to assess sta-
outcome such as mean/median (n = 68). Trials that reported tistical significance of an association. p Value for the effect
hazard ratio (n = 203), absolute risk difference (n = 66), rate size estimate was not reported in 15 trials. We calculated the
ratio (n = 36), relative risk reduction (n = 26), trials reporting p value in those cases from the provided CIs using formulae
no outcomes (n = 3), noninferiority trials with one-sided by Altman and Bland [16]. As the divergence between the
CIs (n = 6), and meta-analyses reporting pooled effect size RR and OR increased, the variability in the width of their
estimates (n = 5) were also excluded. This narrowed the 95% CI also increased. This resulted in a difference in the
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study number to 167, which had reported OR or RR. A total observed p value for the effect size estimates. Despite the
of 46/167 excluded trials reported only adjusted RR (n = 27), difference, there were no conflicts in terms of statistical
or only adjusted OR (n = 19). A total of 121 RCTs were significance. Statistical softwares calculate CIs and p value
eligible for inclusion. Of these, 14 studies were excluded for for OR on the natural log scale, which normalizes the posi-
discrepancies between the reported and calculated estimates. tively skewed distribution of the OR [17]. This could explain
Hence, 107 RCTs (76 reporting unadjusted RR and 31 the minor differences in the p value despite large differences
reporting unadjusted OR) were included in our study (Tables 1 in the value of RR and OR for a particular outcome. Though
and 2). our results did not have any conflict when it comes to statisti-
Majority of the included trials (n = 109, 90%) were multi- cal significance, there is a rare chance that a conflict may
center ones. The sample size in the included trials ranged occur.
from 175 to 62366. The effect size ranged from 0.15 to Percentage of overestimation by OR has been considered
6.1 in those reporting RR and 0.08 – 8.6 in those reporting to be a function of prevalence of outcome and the clinically
OR. important treatment effect [18,19]. The OR is the RR multi-
The phenomenon of a statistically significant result plied by (1-p2)/(1-p1), where the RR = p1/p2. If p1 > p2,
becoming insignificant or vice versa depending on the effect then RR > 1 and (1-p2)/(1-p1) > 1, and so OR > RR > 1.
size estimate was not noted in any of the trials (Tables 1 Thus, the larger p1 is relative to p2, the greater OR is relative
and 2). OR overestimated the effect size in 62% trials to RR. This could mathematically explain the positive corre-
(n = 68). The overestimation was greater than 10% in 68 lation between the degree of overestimation and the preva-
trials, greater than 50% in 28 and greater than 100% in 13 lence of outcomes. Clinical trials involving relatively rare
trials (Tables 1 and 2). outcomes and small treatment effects are designed to have
The percentage of overestimation was positively correlated large sample sizes. This could have resulted in a negative cor-
with the prevalence of the outcome (Spearman relation between sample size and the extent of overestimation
rho = 0.84 and 0.66, p < 0.001, n = 107, Figures 1 and 2) (Figure 3). For a fixed prevalence and treatment effect, the
and negatively correlated with sample size (Spearman’s sample size would not influence the extent of overestimation.
rho = 0.62, p < 0.001, n = 107, Figure3). Prevalence of Researchers prefer reporting OR for various reasons. OR
outcome and sample size had a monotonic relationship with is symmetrical with respect to an outcome. For example, the
percentage of overestimation (Figures 1,2 and 3). OR of outcome “X” is exactly the inverse of the OR of the
The median percentage of overestimation in trials with outcome “not X” [20]. If the baseline risk of the outcome is
statistically significant difference in the primary outcome very common (approximately > 80%) in both the treatment
(n = 57) was 22.7 (range 0 – 986). In trials where these and control groups, OR may be a better estimate than RR in
results were statistically insignificant (n = 50), the median detecting small differences between groups [3]. However, the
percentage of overestimation was 15.8 (range 0 – 296). most important reason for using OR is that it is easy to adjust
DOI: 10.1080/00325481.2015.1022494 Odds ratio vs risk ratio in RCTs 361

Table 1. Calculated odds ratios vs reported risk ratios.


Treatment
group Control group Reported RR Calculated Odds ratio
% of
No Study ID Events Total Events Total RR (confidence interval) p value OR (confidence interval) p value overestimation Ref
1a Allen 2014 14 152 31 148 0.44 (0.24–0.78) 0.006 0.38 (0.2–0.75) 0.005 17.9 [25]
2a Cohen 2013 131 2967 175 3057 0.77 (0.62–0.96) 0.02 0.76 (0.60–0.96) 0.02 5.0 [26]
3a Ferguson 2013 129 275 96 273 1.33 (1.09–1.64) 0.005 1.63 (1.15–2.29) 0.005 71.3 [27]
4a Futier 2013 21 200 55 200 0.38 (0.24–0.61) 0.001 0.31 (0.18–0.53) < 0.001 21.0 [28]
5a Imazio 2013 20 120 45 120 0.44 (0.30–0.72) < 0.001 0.33 (0.18–0.61) < 0.001 35 [29]
6a Shaukat 2013 200 11072 295 10944 0.68 (0.56–0.82) 0.00007c 0.66 (0.55–0.80) < 0.001 7.2 [30]
7a Steg 2013 55 1089 94 1109 0.60 (0.43–0.82) 0.001 0.57 (0.41–0.81) 0.001 10.2 [31]
8a Trehan 2013 137 920 84 923 1.64 (1.27–2.11) < 0.001 1.75 (1.31–2.33) 0.001 13.1 [32]
9a Boonen 2012 9 553 28 574 0.33 (0.16–0.70) 0.002 0.32 (0.15–0.68) 0.002 2.8 [33]
10a Perner 2012 201 398 172 400 1.17 (1.01–1.36) 0.03 1.35 (1.02–1.79) 0.04 91.1 [34]
11a Wei 2012 39 165 85 172 0.48 (0.35–0.65) < 0.001 0.32 (0.20–0.54) < 0.001 55.2 [35]
12a Adzick 2011 53 78 78 80 0.70 (0.58–0.84) < 0.001 0.054 (0–0.21) < 0.001 717.3 [36]
13a Maitland 2011 221 2097 76 1044 1.45 (1.13–1.86) 0.003 1.50 (1.14–1.97) 0.003 9 [37]
14a Decousus 2010 13 1502 88 1500 0.15 (0.08–0.26) < 0.001 0.14 (0.0–0.25) < 0.001 3.6 [38]
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15a Lassen 2010 27 1949 74 1917 0.36 (0.22–0.54) < 0.001 0.35 (0.22–0.54) < 0.001 2.8 [39]
16a Stone 2010 101 2416 81 1195 0.62 (0.46–0.82) 0.001 0.60 (0.44–0.81) 0.001 6.9 [40]
17a Van der Gaag 2010 37 94 75 102 0.54 (0.41–0.71) < 0.001 0.23 (0.13–0.43) < 0.001 137.1 [41]
18a Van Santvoort 2010 17 43 31 45 0.57 (0.38–0.87) 0.006 0.30 (0.12–0.71) 0.009 113.5 [42]
19a Cantor 2009 59 537 90 522 0.64 (0.47–0.87) 0.004 0.59 (0.42–0.84) 0.004 18.2 [43]
20a Connolly SJ 2009 134 6076 199 6022 0.66 (0.53–0.82) < 0.001 0.66 (0.53–0.82) < 0.001 0 [44]
21a Connolly 2 2009 832 3772 924 3782 0.89 (0.81–0.98) 0.01 0.87 (0.79–0.97) 0.01 19.8 [45]
22a Plint 2009 34 200 53 201 0.65 (0.45–0.95) 0.02 0.57 (0.35–0.93) 0.03 30.7 [46]
23a Stone 2008 166 1800 218 1802 0.76 (0.63–0.92) 0.005 0.74 (0.6–0.91) 0.006 9.5 [47]
24a Svilaas 2008 84 490 129 490 0.65 (0.51–0.83) 0.001 0.58 (0.43–0.79) < 0.001 26.4 [48]
25a Black 2007 92 2822 310 2853 0.30 (0.24–0.38) < 0.001 0.28 (0.22–0.35) < 0.001 5.8 [49]
26a Fonseca 2007 24 125 43 125 0.56 (0.36–0.86) 0.007 0.45 (0.25–0.80) 0.01 37.8 [50]
27a MancoJohnson 2007 13 29 2 27 6.1 (1.5–24.4) 0.002 10.2 (2.21–) 0.002 28.4 [51]
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28a Myburgh 2007 71 214 42 206 1.63 (1.17–2.26) 0.003 1.94 (1.25–3.01) 0.004 35.6 [52]
29a Antman 2006 1017 10256 1223 10223 0.83 (0.77–0.90) < 0.001 0.81 (0.74–0.88) < 0.001 13 [53]
30a Freedman 2006 15 107 37 107 0.40 (0.26–0.61) < 0.001 0.31 (0.16–0.60) < 0.001 27.8 [54]
31a Julius 2006 53 391 154 381 0.34 (0.25–0.44) < 0.001 0.23 (0.16–0.33) < 0.001 36.2 [55]
32a Papanikolaou 2006 58 175 41 176 1.42 (1.01–2.00) 0.04 1.63 (1.02–2.61) 0.04 39.4 [56]
33a Stone 2006 466 4612 538 4603 0.86 (0.77–0.97) 0.015 0.85 (0.74–0.97) 0.016 7.7 [57]
34a Bucaneve 2005 243 375 308 363 0.76 0.001 0.33 (0.23–0.47) < 0.001 304.3 [58]
35a Crowther 2005 7 506 23 524 0.32 (0.14–0.73) 0.004 0.30 (0.13–0.70) 0.005 5.6 [59]
36a Cullen 2005 84 781 119 784 0.71 (0.55–0.92) 0.01 0.67 (0.50–0.91) 0.01 16.9 [60]
37a Golden 2005 92 929 121 931 0.76 (0.59–0.98) 0.0338c 0.73 (0.55–0.98) 0.04 14.6 [61]
38a Mestan 2005 17 70 31 68 0.53 (0.33–0.87) 0.01 0.38 (0.19–0.79) 0.01 52.4 [62]
39a Ridker 2005 221 19934 266 19942 0.83 (0.69–0.99) 0.04 0.83 (0.69–0.99) 0.04 0 [63]
40a Landolfi 2004 8 253 21 265 0.40 (0.18–0.91) 0.03 0.38 (0.17–0.86) 0.02 5.6 [64]
41a Senat 2004 17 72 34 70 0.51 (0.07–0.86) 0.002 0.33 (0.16–0.67) 0.003 64.6 [65]
42b Wald 2014 154 846 138 833 1.11 (0.65–1.87) 0.70 1.12 (0.87–1.44) 0.40 8.6 [66]
43b Yealy 2014 173 885 86 456 1.04 (0.82–1.31) 0.83 1.04 (0.8–1.39) 0.83 0.1 [67]
44b Armstrong 2013 116 939 135 943 0.86 (0.68–1.09) 0.21 0.84 (0.65–1.1) 0.22 15.6 [68]
45b Myburgh 2012 597 3315 566 3336 1.06 (0.96–1.18) 0.26 1.07 (0.95–1.22) 0.27 16.1 [69]
46b Ranieri 2012 223 846 202 834 1.09 (0.92–1.28) 0.31 1.12 (0.9–1.4) 0.34 31.5 [70]
47b Thiele 2012 119 300 123 298 0.96 (0.79–1.17) 0.69 0.93 (0.67–1.3) 0.74 77.7 [71]
48b Brocklehurst 2011 686 1759 677 1734 1.00 (0.92–1.08) 1.00c 1.00 (0.87–1.14) 1.00 0.1 [72]
49b Goldhaber 2011 60 2211 70 2284 0.87 (0.62–1.23) 0.44 0.87 (0.62–1.250 0.53 0 [73]
50b Kastrati 2011 94 861 95 860 0.99 (0.74–1.32) 0.94 0.99 (0.73–1.33) 0.94 0 [74]
51b Carlo 2010 513 21992 793 34160 0.99 (0.81–1.22) 0.6 1.00 (0.9–1.12) 0.93 1 [75]
52b Roberts 2010 305 4993 285 4976 1.07 (0.91–1.25) 0.42 1.07 (0.91–1.26) 0.44 0 [76]
53b Azzopardi 2009 74 163 86 162 0.86 (0.68–1.07) 0.17 0.73 (0.47–1.13) 0.18 108.6 [77]
54b Bottiger 2008 77 525 89 525 0.87 (0.65–1.15) 0.36 0.84 (0.60–1.17) 0.35 25.2 [78]
55b Burn 2008 66 350 65 343 1.00 (0.7–1.4) 1.00c 1.00 (0.68–1.45) 1 0 [79]
56b Fergusson 2008 74 780 93 770 0.79 (0.59–1.05) 0.109c 0.76 (0.55–1.05) 0.10 16.4 [80]
57b Gueugniaud 2008 1143 1442 1142 1452 1.01 (0.97–1.05) 0.611c 1.04 (0.87–1.24) 0.71 295.9 [81]
58b Hutchison 2008 32 102 23 103 1.41 (0.89–2.22) 0.142c 1.59 (0.85–2.95) 0.16 34.9 [82]
59b Kastrati 2008 190 2289 199 2281 0.94 (0.77–1.15) 0.57 0.94 (0.77–1.16) 0.63 0.1 [83]
60b Morris 2008 465 902 493 902 0.94 (0.87–1.02) 0.15 0.88 (0.73–1.06) 0.20 106.7 [84]
61b Rouse 2008 118 1041 128 1095 0.97 (0.77–1.23) 0.80 0.96 (0.74–1.26) 0.84 34.0 [85]
62b Rowan 2008 116 363 119 370 0.99 (0.80–1.23) 0.95 0.99 (0.73–1.35) 1 0 [86]
63b Yusuf 2008 1423 8542 1412 8576 1.01 (0.94–1.09) 0.806c 1.01 (0.94–1.1) 0.74 0 [87]
64b Anand 2007 132 1080 144 1081 0.92 (0.73–1.16) 0.48 0.91 (0.70–1.16) 0.48 13.2 [88]
65b Corwin 2007 337 733 351 727 0.95 (0.85–1.06) 0.34 0.91 (0.74–1.12) 0.40 83.8 [89]
66b Rouse 2007 135 325 123 330 1.1 (0.9–1.3) 0.317c 1.2 (0.87–1.63) 0.3 91.3 [90]
67b Bhatt 2006 534 7802 573 7801 0.93 (0.83–1.05) 0.22 0.93 (0.82–1.05) 0.22 0 [91]
68b Kinsella 2006 282 394 295 392 0.95 (0.87–1.03) 0.24 0.83 (0.60–1.13) 0.26 263.2 [92]
362 H. Balasubramanian et al. Postgrad Med, 2015; 127(4):359–367

Table 1. (Continued)
Treatment
group Control group Reported RR Calculated Odds ratio
% of
No Study ID Events Total Events Total RR (confidence interval) p value OR (confidence interval) p value overestimation Ref

69b Lonn 2006 519 2758 547 2764 0.95 (0.84–1.07) 0.41 0.94 (0.82–1.07) 0.37 18.4 [93]
70b Rumbold 2006 56 935 47 942 1.20 (0.82–1.75) 0.57 1.21 (0.82–1.80) 0.36 4.5 [94]
71b De Winter 2005 137 604 126 596 1.07 (0.87–1.33) 0.33 1.09 (0.83–1.44) 0.53 28.3 [95]
72b Fraser 2005 44 986 35 989 1.26 (0.82–1.95) 0.3003c 1.27 (0.81–1.99) 0.30 3.4 [96]
73b Maskell 2005 64 206 60 221 1.14 (0.85–1.54) 0.43 1.21 (0.8–1.83) 0.39 45.5 [97]
74b Finfer 2004 726 3473 729 3460 0.99 (0.91–1.09) 0.87 0.99 (0.88–1.11) 0.88 0 [98]
75b Kastrati 2004 45 1079 43 1080 1.05 (0.69–1.59) 0.829c 1.05 (0.68–1.60) 0.83 0 [99]
76b Prinssen 2004 41 174 31 171 1.3 (0.9–2.0) 0.23 1.4 (0.83–2.34) 0.23 28.2 [100]
a
RCTs with statistically significant results.
b
RCTs with statistically insignificant results.
c
p values not reported in the original study. They were calculated using Altman and Bland formulae.
Abbreviations: OR = Odds ratio; RCT = Randomized controlled trial; RR = Risk ratio.
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the estimate for confounding variables [21]. Logistic regres- Thus, there is no valid reason for not reporting effect size
sion (which produces adjusted OR) is more popular than the using RR in RCTs. Development of user-friendly models for
various models described to adjust the RR (Mantel-Haenszel adjustment of RR could minimize the use of ORs in clinical
RR method, log binomial regression, Poisson regression) trials.
[14,22]. Ideally, randomization should balance the groups Conclusions in RCTs are driven by significance tests, yet,
with respect to covariates and obviate the need for adjusted magnitude of effect is equally important in the assessment of
effect size estimates in RCTs involving large sample sizes. an intervention. In majority of RCTs, in order to achieve a
For personal use only.

Table 2. Calculated risk ratios vs reported odds ratios.


Treatment Control
group group
No Study ID Events Total Events Total Reported OR p value Calculated RR p value % of Over estimation Ref.
a
1 Meyer 2014 13 506 28 499 0.44 (0.23–0.87) 0.02 0.46 (0.24–0.87) 0.02 5.4 [101]
2a Bhatt 2013 257 5472 322 5470 0.79 (0.67–0.93) 0.006 0.79 (0.68–0.93) 0.005 0 [102]
3a Weinstein 2013 38 51 27 65 4.11 (1.85–9.16) 0.00057c 1.79 (1.29–2.5) < 0.001 142.7 [103]
4a Wenzel 2013 3 52 23 52 0.08 (0.02–0.28) < 0.001 0.13 (0.04–0.41) < 0.001 23.8 [104]
5a Von Minckwitz 2012 176 956 144 969 1.29 (1.02–1.65) 0.04 1.23 (1.01–1.51) 0.04 22.7 [105]
6a Cooper 2011 51 73 42 82 2.21 (1.14–4.26) 0.02 1.36 (1.05–1.77) 0.02 158.3 [106]
7a Glauser 2010 81 154 43 146 2.66 (1.65–4.28) < 0.001 1.78 (1.33–2.39) < 0.001 69.8 [107]
8a Kuter 2010 18 157 23 77 0.31 (0.15–0.61) < 0.001 0.38 (0.22–0.67) < 0.001 21.1 [108]
9a Ducharme 2009 43 521 93 526 0.42 (0.29–0.61) 0.00006c 0.47 (0.33–0.65) < 0.001 14.8 [109]
10a Finfer 2009 829 3010 751 3012 1.14 (1.02–1.28) 0.02 1.10 (1.01–1.20) 0.02 37.9 [110]
11a Hacke 2008 219 418 182 403 1.34 (1.02–1.76) 0.04 1.16 (1.01–1.33) 0.04 97.2 [111]
12a Manson 2007 189 537 225 527 0.73 (0.57–0.93) 0.04 0.82 (0.71–0.96) 0.014 58.5 [112]
13a Schmidt 2007 377 937 431 932 0.78 (0.64–0.93) 0.008 0.87 (0.78–0.96) 0.009 78.4 [113]
14a Ullmann 2007 7 291 22 288 0.3 (0.12–0.71) 0.004 0.31 (0.13–0.72) 0.004 2.6 [114]
15a Schmidt 2006 350 963 447 954 0.65 (0.52–0.76) < 0.001 0.77 (0.7–0.86) < 0.001 65.3 [115]
16a Perondi 2004 33 34 27 34 8.6 (1–397) 0.05 1.22 (1.02–1.46) 0.05 985.8 [116]
17b Anderson 2013 719 1382 785 1412 0.87 (0.75–1.01) 0.06 0.94 (0.87–1.01) 0.07 127.8 [117]
18b Barrett 2013 60 2783 52 2782 1.16 (0.77–1.74) 0.49 1.15 (0.8–1.66) 0.5 6.4 [118]
19 b Ciccone 2013 55 181 63 181 0.82 (0.53–1.27) 0.37 0.87 (0.65–1.17) 0.43 42.4 [119]
20b Diegeler 2013 93 1187 99 1207 0.95 (0.71–1.28) 0.74 0.95 (0.73–1.25) 0.76 0 [120]
21b Kirpalani 2013 191 497 180 490 1.07 0.56 1.05 (0.89–1.23) 0.6 39.5 [121]
22b Coleman 2012 49 521 40 529 1.26 (0.82–1.96) 0.303c 1.24 (0.83–1.85) 0.32 7.4 [122]
23 b Carson 2011 351 998 347 1001 1.01 (0.84–1.22) 0.923c 1.01 (0.90–1.14) 0.81 0 [123]
24b Jones 2010 27 58 41 73 0.7 (0.2–1.8) 0.26 0.83 (0.59–1.17) 0.29 91.4 [124]
25b Bellomo 2009 322 721 332 743 1.00 (0.81–1.23) 0.99 1.00 (0.89–1.12) 1.00 0 [125]
26b Bhatt 2009 185 2654 210 2641 0.87 (0.71–1.07) 0.17 0.88 (0.72–1.06) 0.19 8.9 [126]
27b Giugliano 2009 439 4722 469 4684 0.92 (0.80–1.06) 0.23 0.93 (0.82–1.05) 0.25 14.9 [127]
28b Harrington 2009 290 3889 276 3865 1.05 (0.88–1.24) 0.59 1.04 (0.89–1.22) 0.6 24.2 [128]
29b Nguyen 2007 44 217 55 218 0.75 (0.48–1.18) 0.212c 0.80 (0.57–1.14) 0.25 28.9 [129]
30b Scarborough 2007 129 231 120 228 1.14 (0.79–1.64) 0.49 1.06 (0.9–1.25) 0.51 125 [130]
31b Thwaites 2004 121 274 134 271 0.81 (0.58–1.13) 0.22 0.89 (0.75–1.07) 0.23 80.8 [131]
a
RCTs with statistically significant results.
b
RCTs with statistically insignificant results.
c
p values not reported in the original study. They were calculated using Altman and Bland formulae.
Abbreviations: RCT = Randomized controlled trial; RR = Risk ratio.
DOI: 10.1080/00325481.2015.1022494 Odds ratio vs risk ratio in RCTs 363
800
Spearman rho = 0.843
p < 0.001

Percentage of overestimation
600

400

200

0
0 20 40 60 80
Outcome prevalence in intervention group (when RR < 1)
Postgraduate Medicine Downloaded from informahealthcare.com by Nyu Medical Center on 06/24/15

Figure 1. Correlation between prevalence of outcome and percentage of overestimation (when RR < 1).
Abbreviation: RR = Risk ratio.

1000
Spearman rho = 0.664
p < 0.001
Percentage of overestimation

800
For personal use only.

600

400

200

0
0 20 40 60 80
Outcome prevalence in control group (when RR > 1)

Figure 2. Correlation between prevalence of outcome and percentage of overestimation (when RR > 1).
Abbreviation: RR = Risk ratio.

1000
Spearman rho = -0.621
p < 0.001
Percentage of overestimation

800

600

400

200

0
0 20,000 40,000 60,000
Sample size

Figure 3. Correlation between sample size and percentage of overestimation.


364 H. Balasubramanian et al. Postgrad Med, 2015; 127(4):359–367

feasible sample size without sacrificing the power, researchers [10] Katz KA. The (relative) risks of using odds ratios. Arch Derma-
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[21] Simon SD. Understanding the odds ratio and the relative risk.
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Acknowledgments [22] Knol MJ, Le Cessie S, Algra A, Vandenbroucke JP,
Groenwold RH. Overestimation of risk ratios by odds ratios in
S. Rao and S. Patole were responsible for the concept and trials and cohort studies: alternatives to logistic regression.
For personal use only.

design of the study. H. Balasubramanian and A. Ananthan CMAJ 2012;184:895–9.


conducted literature search and analyzed the data. The final [23] Deeks JJ, Higgins JPT, Altman DG (editors). Chapter 9: Analy-
sing data and undertaking meta-analyses. In Deeks JJ,
version of the manuscript was written by H. Balasubramanian Altman DG, eds. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of
and was approved by all the co-authors. interventions. The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011. Available
from www.cochrane-handbook.org.
Declaration of interest [24] Groenwold RH, Moons KG, Peelen LM, Knol MJ, Hoes AW.
Reporting of treatment effects from randomized trials: a plea for
The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involve- multivariable risk ratios. Contemp Clin Trials 2011;32:399–402.
[25] Allen PJ, Gonen M, Brennan MF, Bucknor AA, Robinson LM,
ment with any organization or entity with a financial interest Pappas MM, et al. Pasireotide for postoperative pancreatic fis-
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consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert Rivaroxaban for thromboprophylaxis in acutely ill medical
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