SPHU 3160 – BIOSTATISTICS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

Chapter 11 – Inference About a Mean

11.1 Estimated Standard Error of the Mean

11.2 Student’s t Distribution
11.3 One-Sample t Test
11.4 Confidence Interval for μ
11.5 Paired Samples
11.6 Conditions for Inference

Estimated Standard Error of the Mean ( σ Unknown)

∑ ( x−x )2
S^ E x=
s
√ n , where s is the sample standard deviation
s=
√ n−1

Using s instead of σ adds a source of uncertainty  z procedures no longer apply

 use t procedures instead

x −μ
t=
s
2
x ~N( μ,σ ) ⇒ √ n ~ Student t distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom (df)
Student’s t distributions

• A family of distributions identified by “Student” (William Sealy Gosset) in 1908

• t family members are identified by their degrees of freedom, df.
• t distributions are similar to z distributions but with broader tails
• As df increases → t tails get skinnier → t become more like z

Figure 11.1 t probability density functions with 1, 9, and ∞ degrees of freedom.

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SPHU 3160 – BIOSTATISTICS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

t table (Table C)
• Use Table C to look up t values and probabilities
• Entries  t values
• Rows  df
• Columns  probabilities

Table C. Traditional t table

Cumulative p 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 0.975
Upper-tail p 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025
df = 9 0.703 0.883 1.100 1.383 1.833 2.262
• Let tdf,p ≡ a t value with df degrees of freedom and cumulative probability p.

• For example, t9,.90 = 1.383

Figure 11.3 The 10th and 90th percentiles on t9.

Left tail: Pr(T9 < -1.383) = 0.10 ; Right tail: Pr(T9 > 1.383) = 0.10

One-Sample t Test

A. Hypotheses.
H0: µ = µ0 vs. Ha: µ ≠ µ0 (two-sided)
[ Ha: µ < µ0 (left-sided) or Ha: µ > µ0 (right-sided)]
B. Test statistic.

x̄−μ0
t stat= with df =n−1
s/ √ n
P-value. Convert tstat to P-value [table C or software].

Small P  strong evidence against H0

C. Significance level ().

P –value <  , delete t H0

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Conditions for Inference

 t procedures require these conditions:
 SRS (individual observations or DELTAs)
 Valid information (no information bias)
 Normal population or large sample (central limit theorem)

Example: (Do SIDS babies have lower than average birth weights?)
• We know from prior research that the mean birth weight of the non-SIDs babies in this
population is 3300 grams
• We study n = 10 SIDS babies, determine their birth weights, and x=2890.5 and s =
720.
• Do these data provide significant evidence that SIDs babies have different birth weights
than the rest of the population?

H0: µ = 3300 vs. Ha: µ ≠ 3300

x̄−μ0 2890. 5-3300 −409 . 5

t stat= = = =−1. 799
s 720 227 . 684
Test statistic. √n √10 , df = n-1=9

p-value = 2 Pr( t > 1.799| df = 9)

Table C. Traditional t table

Cumulative p 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 0.975
Upper-tail p 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025
df = 9 0.703 0.883 1.100 1.383 1.833 2.262

Pr( t > 1.833| df = 9) < Pr( t > 1.799| df = 9) < Pr( t > 1.383| df = 9)

.05 < Pr( t > 1.799| df = 9) < .10

.10 < P-value < .20 Do not reject if  = .05

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SPHU 3160 – BIOSTATISTICS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

P-value= 0.1054, via software.

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SPHU 3160 – BIOSTATISTICS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

Confidence Interval for µ

“estimate ± margin of error” formula

(1−α )100% CI for μ ( σ Unknown)

s
x̄±t α⋅
n−1,1−
2√n
CI Example 1: A 95% confidence interval for μ for the birth weight of SIDS babies
α
1−α=. 95 , α=.05 , 1− =. 975 t =2. 262
n=10 , x̄=2890.5 , s=720 .0 , 2 , 9, . 975

s
x̄±t 9, . 975⋅
√n
720
2890 .5±2. 262⋅
√10
2890 .5± 515 . 1

(2375. 4, 3405. 6) grams

CI Example 2: Data are “% of ideal body weight” in 18 diabetics:

{107, 119, 99, 114, 120, 104, 88, 114, 124, 116, 101, 121, 152, 100, 125, 114, 95, 117}.

n=18, x=112.778, s=14 .424 ,

95% CI for μ

s
x̄±t 17 ,. 975⋅
√n
14 .242
112.778±2. 110⋅
√ 18
112 .778 ± 7.083

(105.695, 119. 861)

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SPHU 3160 – BIOSTATISTICS IN PUBLIC HEALTH

Paired Samples: Each point in one sample is matched to a unique point in the other sample

 Pairs be achieved via sequential samples within individuals (e.g., pre-test/post-test), cross-over
trials, and match procedures
 Also called “matched-pairs” and “dependent samples”

Paired t Test
 Similar to one-sample t test
 d = X2 - X1 or d = X1 - X2
o Order of subtraction does not materially effect results, but does change sign of
differences.
 μ0 is usually set to 0, representing “no mean difference”, i.e., H0: μ = 0
d
t stat= with df =n−1
 Test statistic:
sd / √ n

Example: Paired Samples

 Does oat bran reduce LDL cholesterol?
 Cross Over Design: subjects “cross-over” from a cornflake diet to an oat bran diet.
 Half subjects start on CORNFLK, half on OATBRAN
o Two weeks on diet 1
 Measures LDL cholesterol
o Washout period
o Switch diet
o Two weeks on diet 2
 Measures LDL cholesterol

Subject X 1: X2:
CORNFLK OATBRAN d = X2 - X1
1 4.61 3.84 -0.77
2 6.42 5.57 -0.85
3 5.40 5.85 0.45
4 4.54 4.80 0.26
5 3.98 3.68 -0.30
6 3.82 2.96 -0.86
7 5.01 4.41 -0.60
8 4.34 3.72 -0.62
9 3.80 3.49 -0.31
10 4.56 3.84 -0.72
11 5.35 5.26 -0.09
12 3.89 3.73 -0.16

Mean 4.6433 4.2625 -0.3808

Std Dev 0.7903 0.9097 0.4335

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H0: µd = 0 vs. Ha: µd < 0

Test statistic.

d −.3808 −. 3808
t stat= = = =−3 . 04
s d . 4335 .12514
√n √ 12 , df = n-1=11

p-value = Pr( t < - 3.04| df = 11)

Pr( t > 3.106| df = 11) < Pr( t > 3.04| df = 11) < Pr( t > 2.718| df = 11)

.005 < P-value < .01, Reject if  = .05

EXCEL : Pr( t > 3.04| df = 11) = 0.005623

95% Confidence Interval for µd

sd
d±t 11, . 975⋅
√n
.4335
−.3808±2 .201⋅
√ 12
−.3808±( 2 .201 ) ( .12514 )
−.3808±. 27543

(−.65623, -.10537)

SPSS Output: Oat Bran data