Hurricane Pali

Formed January 7, 2016

Dissipated January 15, 2016

(Remnant low after January 14)

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 100 mph (155 km/h)

Lowest pressure 978 mbar (hPa); 28.88 inHg

Fatalities None

Damage None
Areas affected None

Part of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Pali was the earliest-forming Pacific hurricane on record, and the first Pacific
hurricane to occur in January since Hurricane Ekeka in 1992. The first tropical cyclone of
the 2016 Pacific hurricane season, Pali originated as an area of low pressure within a
persistent trough, near the equator on January 6, 2016. Deep convection gradually built
up around the center of the disturbance as the system curved northward, before it
organized into a tropical depression on the next day, making the system the earliest
recorded tropical cyclone in the Pacific hurricane basin. The system quickly reached
tropical storm status and was named Pali. For the next couple of days, Pali slowly moved
northward, while slowly curving towards the west, and the storm strengthened
somewhat before weakening, due to the presence of wind shear. On January 10, Pali
slowly turned eastward and proceeded to re-strengthen, as wind shear diminished. On
January 12, Pali strengthened further into a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson
scale (SSWHS), while curving towards the south. On January 13, Pali reached its peak
intensity as a Category 2 hurricane, with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 100
mph (155 km/h)[nb 1] and a minimum central pressure of 978 mbar (hPa; 28.88 inHg).
Afterward, Pali quickly began to weaken, as the storm encountered stronger wind shear,
with the storm falling to Category 1 intensity several hours later, before weakening into
a tropical storm later that day. On January 14, Pali weakened into a tropical depression,
before degenerating into a remnant low by January 15, as conditions became
increasingly hostile. Later that day, Pali's remnants dissipated, near same the location
where the storm had formed roughly a week ago. Pali formed and tracked near the
equator, forming at a latitude of 3.3°N and tracking as low as 2.3°N as a tropical
depression. This made Pali the second-lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the
Western Hemisphere, which was extremely unusual, given the unfavorable conditions
that are usually in place around the equator.
Background and records[edit]

The track of Hurricane Pali (in red), compared to those of the other tropical cyclones in
the NOAA's database, dating from 1842 to 2015

As currently defined, the Pacific hurricane season lasts from May 15 to November 30,
the period in which tropical cyclones are most likely to develop across the basin.
Occasionally, systems develop outside these seasons,[1] most frequently in May or
December, though some off-season storms also develop in January.[2] Activity in
January is extremely rare; only two systems other than Pali have been recorded since
1949: Tropical Storm Winona in 1989 and Hurricane Ekeka in 1992, which became a
Category 3 major hurricane.[3][2] Pali was the earliest tropical cyclone recorded in the
Central Pacific basin, forming on January 7, beating Tropical Storm Winona by six days.
[4] Pali was also the earliest recorded Central Pacific hurricane, reaching hurricane
intensity on January 12, beating the previous record-holder, Hurricane Ekeka, by 19
days.[5]

Pali also formed and tracked closer to the equator than any other storm recorded in the
Pacific hurricane basin.[5][6] Pali became a tropical depression near 3.3°N.[7] During its
final days as a tropical cyclone, Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.3°N as a tropical
depression, making it the second-lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the
Western Hemisphere, just behind Tropical Depression Nine-C, which attained a
minimum latitude of 2.2°N just two weeks prior;[7][8][9] no other tropical cyclone in the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s records in the Central
Pacific had ever ventured that close to the equator, dating back to 1842.[5] Tropical
cyclones usually do not develop that close to the equator, due to the strength of the
Coriolis force at those latitudes, which is too weak to induce the spin necessary to form
tropical cyclones.[5][3] Prior to the storm's dissipation, when Pali curved back towards
the south, some meteorologists speculated that Pali could cross over the equator into
the Southern Hemisphere, given the steering currents in place, which would have been
an extremely rare occurrence had the storm done so.[5][10]
Unrelated to Pali, the formation of Hurricane Alex over the North Atlantic in mid-January
coincided with Pali's development over the Central Pacific. This marked the first
occurrence of simultaneous January tropical cyclones between these two basins.[11]

Meteorological history[edit]

In late December 2015, a long-lived and powerful westerly wind burst—a feature
commonly associated with strong El Niño events—triggered the formation of Tropical
Depression Nine-C in the central North Pacific, along with its twin, Tropical Cyclone Ula,
in the central South Pacific. Tropical Depression Nine-C quickly dissipated by the start of
2016, leaving behind a large area of moisture across the equatorial Pacific.[7][8][9] The
persistent, powerful westerly wind burst spurred cyclogenesis within a persistent, low-
latitude, west-to-east-oriented surface trough that spanned between 1.0°N and 3.0°N
latitude as far east as 155.0°W longitude, resulting in the formation of a weak area of
low pressure on January 6, at the extremely low latitude of 1.9°N.[7] The disturbance
developed in an area of high wind shear, which kept the system from quickly organizing.
The low and the trough drifted northward, as the subtropical ridge spanning the region
was significantly weakened by a passing extratropical storm in the North Pacific. Deep
convection then developed near the low and also along a broad portion of the trough;
however, thunderstorms failed to concentrate around the center of the disturbance.
Fueled by unusually high sea surface temperatures, estimated at 29.5 °C (85.1 °F), deep
convection increased and gradually organized around the low, and the system gradually
coalesced into a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on January 7, at a latitude of 3.3°N.
This marked the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone on record in the Central Pacific,
surpassing 1989's Tropical Storm Winona by six days.[4] A ridge aloft centered directly
above the system enhanced its poleward anticyclonic outflow, enabling the
development of deep convection around its center, and soon afterward, the system
strengthened into a tropical storm, which received the name Pali, becoming the earliest
tropical cyclone recorded in the northeastern Pacific.[7][12]

Pali continued intensifying through the first half of January 8 and nearly reached
Category 1 hurricane strength, with maximum 1-minute sustained winds reaching 70
mph (110 km/h), but easterly vertical wind shear caused by the ridge aloft increased and
disrupted its center, causing the storm to start weakening and curve northwestward.[7]
Steady weakening continued through January 9, as Pali's deep convection was displaced
to the west of its low-level circulation center and intermittently pulsed, later leading to a
sharp decrease in the storm's intensity.[7] By the end of that day, Pali barely maintained
tropical storm strength, with the storm's 1-minute sustained winds registering at 40
mph (65 km/h). The lack of persistent deep convection resulted in Pali being a weaker
system, but this permitted the storm to be more resistant to the easterly wind shear,
causing its forward motion to decrease significantly.[7] The ridge of high pressure
weakened and retreated southward on January 10, which caused the vertical wind shear
to gradually diminish. Afterward, Pali started re-intensifying, with persistent deep
convection redeveloping near its center and within the storm's western quadrant. This
shift in steering currents also caused Pali to slowly turn eastward. Pali almost completely
stalled during this time, due to the absence of significant steering currents.[7] On
January 11, the ridge of high pressure moved directly over Pali, leading to the
reestablishment of poleward outflow above the storm and the eventual development of
southwesterly flow aloft, enabling the storm's convection to slowly increase in coverage
and organization within all quadrants, and also establishing a northeastward movement.
[7] At 00:00 UTC on January 12, light vertical wind shear and high sea surface
temperatures enabled Pali to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the
earliest hurricane on record in the northeast Pacific basin, beating the previous record
set by Hurricane Ekeka in 1992, by 19 days. Around the same time, the storm began
curving towards the southeast, as a deep ridge developed to the north. The storm also
displayed a well-defined eye by 18:00 UTC that day.[7] Pali continued strengthening
while travelling southward, and early on January 13, Pali reached its peak intensity as a
Category 2 hurricane, with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h)
and a minimum central pressure of 978 millibars (28.9 inHg).[7][13]

During the next few days, Pali rapidly weakened while turning back towards the south-
southwest, due to steady increases in southerly vertical wind shear and the loss of
Coriolis force. The storm's weakening trend began on January 13 and accelerated
through the next day, as Pali moved back towards the area from where it had formed.
The storm's eye became indistinguishable by 06:00 UTC on January 13, as the system
continued to weaken.[7] Vertical wind shear exceeded 25 mph (40 km/h) by early
January 14. Further decay in the organization of the storm's deep convection caused Pali
to be downgraded into a remnant low late on January 14, with the system barely being
distinguishable within the surface trough where it had spent its entire life,[7][14] and the
storm's center dissipated by 00:00 UTC on January 15. However, Pali's remnants
continued to persist for a while, before dissipating later that day.[15][16] Pali completed
a broad and looping track, dissipating approximately 50 nmi (58 mi; 93 km) from where
it had initially developed.[7] While weakening, Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.3°N,
making it the second-lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the Western
Hemisphere, behind Tropical Depression Nine-C, which attained a minimum latitude of
2.2°N just two weeks prior.[7][8][9]
Structural evolution of Hurricane Pali from a tropical disturbance into a hurricane

A tropical disturbance with clouds wrapping cyclonically around a center

The precursor disturbance on January 6. Note organization of thunderstorms around

the center of the storm.

A tropical storm with clouds wrapping around the center; wind shear can be seen
eroding the storm from the east

A low-level circulation develops, convection wraps around the center, and winds
increase to tropical storm-force, signifying the system's development into a tropical
storm.

A tropical storm with clouds wrapping around the center; a mass of thunderstorms
can be seen concentrated at the center

Convection concentrates around the center of circulation and increases, indicating the
storm's strengthening trend

A cyclone with banding clouds wrapping cyclonically over its center

Banding features become increasingly defined, and an eye appears, signifying the
storm's intensification into a hurricane

A cyclone with banding clouds wrapping cyclonically over its center; a small eye can
be seen in the center of the storm
 The storm peaks as a Category 2 hurricane, with a small, distinct eye visible in the
center of the storm

See also[edit]

List of off-season Pacific hurricanes

Tropical cyclones in 2016

Hurricane Nina (1957) – A late-season Pacific hurricane that came close to striking
Hawaii in December
Tropical Storm Omeka (2010) – Another off-season tropical cyclone in the Central
Pacific