Greener Denmark

Future Possibilities
Present Actions
Partnerships for a greener

Denmark in 2050
About the process and results of the DK2050 project
Developed by the Danish Architecture Centre

1 / 06
Developed by
The Danish Architecture Centre
Part of the DK2050 project

Learn more about the project: Dac.dk/dk2050
Follow the project on Twitter: @DK2050_DAC
and #DK2050
ISBN 978-87-90668-63-1
2nd edition
In order to use this material, you must credit:
The Danish Architecture Centre DK2050, as
well as the photographer when using pictures,
architectural firms when using illustrations and
DAMVAD/Kairos Future when using graphics.
Content
WELCOME TO 2050. . . . . . . . . . . 2 LOCAL DEBATE. . . . . . . . . . . . 40

What will Denmark look like in 2050?. . . . . . . . . 2 The scenarios of local debate . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
WHEN SCENARIOS MEET DEBATE IN VENICE . . . . . . . . . 44

REALITY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 An international perspective on DK2050 . . . . . 44
PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 THE PEOPLE MEETING . . . . . . . 46

Green transition being debated at the
ABOUT THE REPORT. . . . . . . . . . 9 People Meeting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
SHARED VISION OF GOALS . . . . . 10 FUTURE POSSIBILITIES –

The goal of DK2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 PRESENT ACTIONS . . . . . . . . . . 59
Who needs DK2050?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 A new beginning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Two roads open up possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . 11 We want to invest in fishing rods . . . . . . . . . . 60
Be prepared for multiple futures . . . . . . . . . . . 62
WE STAND TOGETHER . . . . . . . . 13 Launching the new map of Denmark. . . . . . . . 64
The participants of the biennale exhibition. . . . . 13
Power planning towards 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . 65
The participants in the development
Ændringer i bymønstret frem mod 2050 . . . . . . 68
of scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
There is no umbilical cord . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Action now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
THE ARCHITECTURE
BIENNALE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Simon Giles: Global challenges for cities
A sterling picture of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 towards 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
With toes deep in the sand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
STRATEGIC DILEMMAS AND
Opening speech by the Danish minister of culture
CHALLENGES TOWARDS 2050 . . . 95
Marianne Jelved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Energy and climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS FOR
DENMARK IN THE YEAR 2050. . . . 23 Business and economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
The four scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Transport and mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Green, greener, greenest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Citizen and society. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Scenarios developed across Denmark. . . . . . . 30
FOUR PERSPECTIVES ON
CAMP 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 DK2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Martin Damm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Trends identified. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Katherine Richardson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
CAMP 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Peter Baltzer Nielsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Mayors on a trip to 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Peter Rathje. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
CAMP 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 APPENDIX 1: PROGRAMME:

Decision-power and wide-set collaboration . . . . 37 THE PEOPLE MEETING 2014. . . . .113
1
Welcome to 2050
WHAT WILL DENMARK LOOK LIKE We hope that the rest of Denmark – businesses,
IN 2050? other municipalities, regions, state and not least
What will Denmark look like in 2050? citizens – will use and participate in DK2050 and
By taking part in DK2050, 10 Danish be inspired and discuss as well as act, in order
municipalities have started the important debate for us to work towards realizing the goals of the
on how Danish cities and urban regions can future – together.
navigate and work towards a well-balanced
Denmark as we reach 2050. Welcome to DK2050.
DK2050 presents a number of qualified ideas

on which way to go and shows the dilemmas
and solutions connected with creating green
growth in Denmark and realizing the goal of a
country free of fossil fuels by 2050. Through four
scenarios we can picture what Denmark and
Danish cities could look like in 2050 – all based
on how we act now.
Frank Jensen, Lord Mayor, Copenhagen Erik Lauritzen, mayor, Sønderborg
Jacob Bundsgaard, mayor, Aarhus Jacob Bjerregaard, mayor, Fredericia
Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor, Aalborg Steen Dahlstrøm, mayor, Middelfart
Anker Boye, mayor, Odense Martin Damm, mayor, Kalundborg
Iver Enevoldsen, mayor, Ringkøbing-Skjern Michael Ziegler, mayor, Høje-Taastrup
2 DK2050 – Sammen om et grønnere Danmark – Dansk Arkitektur Center

DK2050 presents four possible future scenarios for Denmark. These four maps illustrate the possible geographical
consequences of the four scenarios. Illustration: MUTOPIA
3
When scenarios meet reality
In Aalborg, the presentation of the four possible maps of Denmark led to a

debate about the survival of the airport, the role of the university, and about
what Aalborg would look like in the different scenarios for the future. These
scenarios have challenged Aalborg to think ahead and be innovative, but it
has also made it clear what we don’t want the future to be.
Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor of Aalborg

since January 2014, talks to us about his
ideas of what can happen when the scenarios
become reality, and on how the city can use
them in the future.
Which possibilities and dilemmas has

DK2050 contributed to map out and
debate in Aalborg?
The scenarios of DK2050 have really
challenged us to be innovative and think far
ahead. DK2050 has given us some strong
images of what the future could look like. That’s
both a strength and a challenge that you have
Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor of Aalborg, part of to take into consideration. I see a potential
DK2050. danger when negative scenarios have been
written down and drawn up because they
become part of reality and get that much closer
to being a reality than we might actually want
them to be. This works both ways, obviously,
and I think these scenarios have presented
Aalborg with some exciting possibilities too.
How do you see your role and possibilities

of action as a municipality when it comes
to the green transition, and how important
is it to act regionally and nationally?
DK2050 underlines the fact that development
has to come from the urban regions and shows
that it is a huge responsibility to take on. You
could say that that the project shows us where
to focus – both when it comes to threats and
possibilities.
4 Partnerships for a greener Denmark in 2050 – About the process and results of the DK2050 project – Dansk Arkitektur Center
The scenarios present several possible futures other things, the role of the university in the
for Aalborg, They have provided us with a city – which is very central in the future too,
solid foundation for a debate on what we just as several of the scenarios point out.
want – and what we want to work to avoid. It
seems clear to me that we need to think alike What kind of future is realistic and
in urban regions when it comes to things like attractive to Aalborg and the region,
business development and infrastructure, for in your eyes?
example. This is just like we do today with I see more reality in the scenarios that
Business Region North which works as a strong describe Aalborg as a centre for intelligent
business-promoting entity. urban planning and green industry, an area
where we’re already ahead. In my opinion,
Collaborating with the state is important here the scenarios also show that we can’t talk
too. For instance, you could imagine a scenario about a sustainable Denmark without having
where the state commits to developing a a knowledge-based industry in Danish city
strategy for business development in the regions. This is a point of strength for Aalborg,
different regions of Denmark, giving us a which the scenarios also point out, that we
shared point of departure supporting the need to put our money on.
regional work.
A good example is the coming light rail. I’m
The idea of the scenarios has been sure it will contribute – more than many people
developed to create debate. It’s already might expect – to us having a unique position
well on its way in Aalborg. What has when it comes to the green transition and a
been your experience with the debate green and efficient infrastructure in Aalborg.
that stemmed from the scenarios?
There’s been a lot of focus on the parts of the How will the municipality of Aalborg use
scenarios which try to erase us from the history DK2050 and the scenarios in the future?
books. That’s a shame. In reality, there are many We will definitely use them in many ways – in
international flights departing from Aalborg our city planning, in the work with our district
every single day, so we have a hard time plan, our sustainability strategy and not least
picturing the future that one of the scenarios our business strategy. I see the scenarios as a
presents. Copenhagen is not our primary hub solid foundation that can also be used in the
now – we are just as focused on international collaborations working on strengthening green
destinations. Our growth comes from, among growth in the future.
5
Preface
DK2050 – A NEW NATIONAL LAUNCH- DK2050 is an ambitious knowledge project

PAD FOR DISCUSSION on green transition, and takes as its starting
It is scientifically agreed upon that the earth’s point the above-mentioned consensus. The
climate, in the almost five billion years the earth project is initiated and developed by the Danish
has existed, has been altered by cosmic and Architecture Centre in collaboration with a
geological forces. Today, it is also commonly number of major societal players within the
scientifically acknowledged that the activities field of green transition. DK2050 was launched
of humankind throughout the last centuries in 2013, and the project’s objective is to
have affected this development dramatically. produce professional scenarios that can guide
We are now entering a new geological age us in how we must act today, tomorrow and in
called the anthropocentric age. ’Anthropos’ is the long run, if we want to work and live in a
latin for ’human’, and the term has been chosen green society.
on grounds of the realization that activities
created by humankind are now the primary The DK2050 project has unfolded in two
changing force in the climate changes. At this directions. The project has produced four
very moment, in the 21st century, it is we and scenarios for Denmark’s green transition
our way of living that drive the climate changes towards 2050. It has also shaped the official
we are witnessing, and it is the effects from this Danish contribution to the 14th International
way of living we need to address. Architecture Biennale in Venice in 2014:
Renowned Danish landscape architect Stig L.
In an effort to do just this, Denmark set up Andersson offered his – and thus Denmark’s –
the Danish Commission on Climate Change proposition for the ways in which we can use an
Policy in 2008. In 2010, under the leadership of understanding of the past as inspiration to the
professor in biological oceanography Katherine ways we can work with green transition in our
Richardson, the commission published a report, physical surroundings in the future.
which has since laid the foundation for a
remarkable national consensus policy on green Building scenarios is not an exact science. It
conversion of Denmark towards 2050. is a professional knowledge genre, that maps
potential futures and that is based in actual
knowledge and careful considerations on to thank the scientific board consisting of
how tendencies and driving forces in society Katherine Richardson, Copenhagen University,
may develop. Scenarios have the potential to Mark Lorenzen, Copenhagen Business School,
take us out of the comfort zone, that wishful Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg University, and
thinking about the future otherwise often Gertrud Jørgensen, Copenhagen University,
keep us huddled up in. These scenarios as well as the Danish Architecture Centre’s
have the potential to push us towards asking public-private partnership with Realdania and
more qualified questions about the future the Danish Ministry for Business and Growth,
possibilities and today’s actions. In this way, the the Danish Ministry of Culture, the Danish
chances of making wiser decisions – decisions, Ministry of the Environment and the Danish
that cater to the hopes and wishes we have for Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building.
the long-term development – are improved. Furthermore, I would like to thank the Dreyer
Foundation and the jubilee foundation of
I would like to express my thanks to everyone, Danmarks Nationalbank. Finally, thank you to
who has contributed to creating and financing our advisers and analytical partners on this
the DK2050 project and thus helped provide project, DAMVAD and Kairos Future.
a new national launch-pad for the future
discussion on how we best act in the present DK2050 might have been fostered by a couple
in order to best fulfill the potential of tomorrow: hundred people, but is created for all Danes
Realdania, Grundejernes Investeringsfond, alike and for everyone, who has an interest
Rambøll, The Architecture Committee of the in their own as well as our shared future.
Danish Arts Foundation, the Municipalities Therefore, in the years to come, the Danish
of Copenhagen, Aarhus, Aalborg, Odense, Architecture Centre will continue to organize
Fredericia, Middelfart, Ringkøbing-Skjern, debates and other activities, that aim to
Sønderborg, Høje-Taastrup and Kalundborg, encourage a shared reflection on where we
the Capital Region of Denmark, the Region of want to go, and how we want to get there.
Southern Denmark, the North Denmark Region,
and the architecture companies MUTOPIA, Happy reading and welcome to 2050!
SLETH and WE architecture. I would also like
Kent Martinussen,
CEO, the Danish Architecture Centre
7
About the report
In this report, ”Towards a greener Denmark in 2050,” you can read about the
DK2050 project which has gathered a number of players to encourage innovative
thinking and qualify the debate on whether we can realize the green transition
together towards the year 2050.
To begin with, the project’s impetus in a unique THE MATERIAL CONSISTS OF:
sense of agreement along with the many TOWARDS A GREENER DENMARK IN 2050
players who have made the project come alive – About the process and results of the
is described. Then, the two roads contained in DK2050 project
the project are being expanded on: An introduction to the DK2050 project, written
by the Danish Architecture Centre who have
• The Danish contribution to the 14th initaited and developed the DK2050 project.
International Architecture Biennale in
Venice 2014 GREEN GROWTH IN DENMARK
TOWARDS 2050
• The development of scenarios showing – Four future scenarios
four possible futures for the green The scenario report is made by DAMVAD and
transition in Denmark Kairos Future and describes four possible
roads for Denmark and Danish cities and urban
From there, the dilemmas that DK2050 has regions in the green transition towards 2050.
uncovered, which can provide a starting point
for debate and further development, will be METRICS OF GREEN CONVERSION IN
described. DENMARK TOWARDS 2050
– Assessing the effects on transportation,
Finally, four profiles from sectors that shape energy, waste and water
the future Denmark, present their ideas on how This report is developed by Rambøll and
DK2050 can be of use, and how we can meet based on the conclusions from, ”Four future
some of the challenges that a green transition scenarios.”
faces us with.
SUSTAINABLE DANISH CITIES AND CITY
”Towards a Greener Denmark” is part of a REGIONS TOWARDS 2050
larger body of materials that describe four – Architectural solutions for a future Denmark
possible scenarios for Denmark’s green In this report, the scenarios are being worked up
transition through 2050. architecturally by three firms – MUTOPIA, WE
architecture and SLETH, all interpreting the four
scenarios and Rambøll’s results. This publication
collects maps and illustrations displaying
the consequences of these scenarios for cities,
regions and Denmark as a whole in 2050.
9
Shared vision of goals
– but what about getting there?
Across the political spectrum in the Danish parliament, there is a shared vision of
an ambitious goal: creating a green and well-balanced Denmark. The politicians
agree on the goal, but getting there is still a challenge.
Both previous and the present government and zero-energy houses. It’s also about
wish to create a carbon neutral country, free financing the welfare system, about growth
from fossil fuels and with an energy supply possibilities in the Danish business sector,
based on renewable energy sources – that about the development in Danish cities and
also supports growth, welfare and connectivity urban regions in a connected Denmark where
across Denmark. people enjoy living. It’s about creating a well-
balanced Denmark.
The debate about the green transition has
a tendency to get polarized: It’s either green Balancing all of these factors means that we
transition or growth; either windmills or quality have to think ahead more than just one future,
of life, either growth in waterfront Denmark or and that we observe the possibilities we are
in the big cities, either rationality or aesthetics. faced with as an entity. That’s the ambition of
It can be difficult to juggle all the dimensions the DK2050 project; having a nuanced view of
and possibilities of the green transition at the the possibilities of the future in order to qualify
same time. Because it’s not only about organic the actions of the present.
roof-tomatoes, ’smart cities’, selling windmills
”It is the goal of the government that Denmark is free of coal,

oil and gas by 2050. The transition towards an independence
from fossil fuels needs to fulfill two basic goals: Denmark
has to maintain a high level of supply security and secure a
stable power supply that is possible to pay for. (…) Denmark
must contribute to limit global climate changes (…)”
Energy strategy 2050
THE GOAL OF DK2050 TWO ROADS OPEN UP POSSIBILITIES
There’s not just one road, one possibility or one The DK 2050 project contains two roads
player that can lead Denmark’s green transi- highlighting the possibilities and dilemmas we
tion. That’s why one of the goals of DK2050 are faced with when realizing the goal of green
is to qualify the debate on Denmark’s green transitioning:
transition by showing more than one road to
a carbon-neutral Denmark by the year 2050 1. Development of scenarios across sectors
and thereby create a base for doing politics and professions where future scenarios
that lead Denmark towards a more sustainable for the green transition in Denmark
future. and green growth in Danish cities and
urban regions are constantly being
WHO NEEDS DK2050? developed and debated.
DK2050 is created by a couple hundred people
but for all Danes and everyone interested in the 2. Denmark’s official contribution to the 14th
future of their community. DK2050 is created International Architecture Biennale in
for national, regional and local decision-makers, Venice in 2014 which re-introduces
for professionals and interest groups within aesthetics as a necessary reaction to
planning, urban development, energy supply, rationalism, in order for the two
transportation, infrastructure and consultancy approaches to work together when we
about technical total solutions. make decisions about the future.
The future of Denmark is not only relevant to Both roads combine a rational approach
the people involved in DK2050. The ambition is with roots in eg. social sciences and law with
that all Danish – and some foreign – municipali- architects’ professional expertise – creating
ties, city regions and other players use DK2050 images of the future, of something that does
as inspiration, a starting point for further not yet exist.
discussion, and to mobilize the political will ne-
eded to navigate the dilemmas and possibilities By containing both of these approaches,
that DK2050 present us with. DK2050 wishes to contribute to the debate
about how we realize the green transition, and
moves away from fragmented, one-dimensional
thinking. These two approaches complement
each other because the good life and a well-
balanced Denmark are about energy supply
and the built environment as well as how we
can create and enjoy the grown environment.
11
We stand together
Across sectors, fields, geography and communities, a group of central players

have created, participated in and facilitated the realization of DK2050. Together,
they have created a solid foundation for further debate on how we wish to move
forward towards a greener Denmark.
DK2050 is developed and run by the Danish The publication of the exhibition is supported
Architecture Centre (DAC) in a partnership by Dreyers Fond and Nationalbankens
with Realdania and the Danish state Jubilæumsfond.
represented by the Ministry of Culture, the
Ministry of the Environment, the Ministry PLAYERS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
of Business and Growth and the Ministry of SCENARIOS
Climate, Energy and Building. 10 Danish municipalities were chosen for both
their experience working with green transition
THE PLAYERS OF THE BIENNALE and for their combined representation
The Danish contribution to the international on a broad spectrum of urban typologies,
architecture biennale in Venice in 2014 consists geographic locations, location-based qualities
of the exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics. and participation in the development of our
The exhibition is curated by the internationally scenarios. The ten participating municipalities
recognized landscape architect Stig L. who will use the scenarios in their strategic
Andersson, professor and creative director and work are: Aalborg, Aarhus, Ringkøbing-Skjern,
founder of architect firm SLA. Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Odense,
Kalundborg, Høje-Taastrup and Copenhagen.
Kent Martinussen, CEO of the Danish Furthermore, three regions take part in the
Architecture Centre, has been appointed project: the Region of Southern Denmark,
commissary of the official Danish contribution the Region of Northern Jutland and the
to the 14th International Architecture Biennale Capital Region. The project is supported by
in Venice 2014 by the Danish Ministry of Grundejernes Investeringsfond, the Danish Arts
Culture. Foundation and Rambøll.
The Danish contribution to the biennale is As analytic partners, DAMVAD and Kairos
supported by the Ministry of Culture, Realdania Future have prepared scenario report ”Green
and the Danish Arts Foundation. Furthermore growth in Denmark towards 2050.” Rambøll’s
the exhibition has been realized with support work is collected in the report ”Metrics of green
and donations from: OSRAM, SpektraLED, conversion in Denmark towards 2050.”
New Mat, alluVial International, Egen Vinding
& Datter, Bark House, Sibelco Denmark,
Niels Bohr Arkivet, Museum Jorn, Mariebjerg
Kirkegaard, The Hirschsprung Collection,
Thorvaldsens Museum, KØS, Carsten Hoff,
iGuzzini, Lokalhistorisk Arkiv in Gentofte and
G.N. Brandts Haves Venner.
13
Three architecture firms, MUTOPIA, SLETH University, and Professor Gertrud Jørgensen,
and WE architecture, have processed the University of Copenhagen.
scenarios architecturally and illustrated the
possible futures that Denmark and Danish Many voices create a diverse picture
cities could face in the future. Their work is DK2050 is a project with many voices. That’s
collected in the report ”Sustainable Danish its strength. It also means that the different
cities and city regions towards 2050” which perspectives don’t always see the same things,
MUTOPIA has co-curated. but together, they create a diverse picture of
some of the central challenges that we have
Along the way, the scenarios have been further to meet head on during the green transition
qualified in dialogue with a knowledge-panel towards 2050.
consisting of: Professor Katherine Richardson,
University of Copenhagen, Professor Mark
Lorenzen, Copenhagen Business School,
Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg
”The collaboration and ’out-of-box-thinking’ also include

the administration and the political world of the technical,
the housing-related, the sociological, the educational and
the business-related. Across state, regional and municipal
borders. DK2050 shows us that it can be done.”
Mark Lorenzen, professor at CBS
Discussions and meetings between the many players of the community are part of DK2050. In this picture, the mayor of
Høje-Taastrup, Michael Ziegler, is in discussion with architect Matthias Sauerbrunch outside the Danish pavilion in Venice.
15
”Imagine if we can rediscover the particular Danish
complementary way of connecting the aesthetic with
the rational! Imagine if we could combine the values
of those two paradigms in a language and a method
founded on Danish and Nordic cultural history and
thus provide new answers to the question of how
to renew and regenerate our welfare system so it
becomes what we want it to be.”
Stig L. Andersson
The architecture biennale
The exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics is Denmark’s official contribution to

the 14th International Architecture Biennale in Venice. It provides DK2050 with an
aesthetic and artistic contribution to the debate on Denmark’s sustainable future.
The exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics In the Danish pavilion, people are invited to enter
is Denmark’s official contribution to the 14th an aesthetic universe where sounds, smells, light
International Architecture Biennale in Venice. It and materials create experiences and hopefully
provides DK2050 with an aesthetic and artistic inspire thoughts about the aesthetic elements
contribution to the debate on Denmark’s and qualities we wish our future cities, urban
sustainable future. spaces and buildings to possess.
.
Thousands of visitors have seen the Danish
pavilion at the 14th International Architecture A STERLING PICTURE OF THE FUTURE
Biennale in Venice and experienced the Stig L. Andersson’s exhibition seeks to create a
exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics, more sterling picture of the future, an aesthetic
curated by well-known landscape architect and universe pointing towards the vision we have
Professor Stig L. Andersson. He has created a of a sustainable Denmark and Danish cities.
communication project that wishes to recreate He stresses that the aesthetic and the human
the balance between the rational and the are all necessary when thinking about the
aesthetic, between culture and nature, the built future and the values we want to create and/or
environment and the grown environment. maintain in Denmark:
In the hallway of the Danish pavilion, visitors are met by a thousand pages of Danish law. Photo: Jens Lindhe
17
Visitors meet Stig L. Andersson’s selection of objects; from the words of H.C. Ørsted to the thoughts of Asger Jorn.
Photo: Jens Lindhe
”For too long, we have only focused on the the only thing that counts. But there needs to
rational in our argumentation on how to build be an equality between the rational and the
our future. We have not understood that aesthetic”, Stig L. Andersson explains.
aesthetics complement the rational. That
means that we need to invent a new language Stig L. Andersson is also exhibiting previous
to be able to speak of the worth of aesthetics. examples of how Denmark’s biggest capacities
A language where the aesthetic amenity value within eg. natural science and art all through
of a tree is just as important as its usefulness the Danish Modernity in fact managed to link
when it comes to seeping up rainwater, the rational with the aesthetic. This is why
containing CO2 and increasing the prices of people visiting this this exhibition will make the
our homes. I’m not saying that aesthetics are acquaintance of, amongst others, Niels Bohr,
Asger Jorn and Inger Christensen.
”If we don’t understand, accept and use the aesthetic
as a power on its own when deciding how to build our
communities, we only get half a solution. We will have
a nation based on half solutions.”
Stig L. Andersson
WITH TOES DEEP IN THE SAND

As a visitor at the exhibition in the Danish
pavilion, you move along on a thin layer of sand
from Bornholm, and you might wonder what
it means.
As Stig L. Andersson reminds us, the Danes

have been particularly good at remembering
that good solutions are found in the balance
between the rational and the aesthetic.
Empowerment of Aesthetics promotes this
unique Danish approach to an international
audience, and explains how, with DK2050,
Denmark works ambitiously to secure a
sustainable future – with the help of rational
analysis and methods as well as art, poetry and
the senses – through the aesthetic – like the
sand crunching under the visitors’ soles.
Empowerment of Aesthetics provises DK2050

with an aesthetic and artistic contribution to
the debate on Denmark’s sustainable future.
The main point of the exhibition is that the
equality between the rational and the aesthetic
need to be (re)discovered if we want Denmark
to have a sustainable future.
Sand, sound, roots, bark, pine needles and soil invite

visitors to use their senses. Photo: Jens Lindhe
19
DANISH MINISTER OF CULTURE Dear visitors, dear Stig Lennart Andersson.
MARIANNE JELVED’S OPENING SPEECH
The Danish Minister of Culture Marianne It is a great pleasure to welcome you all to the
Jelved spoke at the opening of the Danish opening of the Danish pavilion.
contribution to the architecture biennale in
Venice. This is her speech. Stig Lennart Andersson, first and foremost I
must address my welcome to you: You have
made a very special exhibition. For example,
you argue that the celebrated Danish scientist
H.C. Ørsted could not have conceived of his
amazing discovery of electromagnetism if he
had not also been a poet and a philosopher.
His aesthetic imagination complemented
his scientific imagination. Or his ’thought
experiments’ as he called them.
Perhaps you can’t say that Ørsted’s poem

’The Air Ship’ led directly to his discovery of
electromagnetism. Vice versa,t we can see
why his artistic interests and his scientific
discoveries complemented each other.
The time period that Ørsted made his

discoveries in was also a time where emphasis
was put on both art and science. It was a world
of sensations and emotions and rationality
and calculation. In Denmark we call this period
’The Golden Age’, because it produced brilliant
Minister of Culture Marianne Jelved spoke at the scientists like Ørsted as well as artists and
opening of the exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics. thinkers like Kierkegaard, H.C. Andersen and
Foto: Camerafoto Arte
Grundtvig. You, Stig Lennart Andersson, call it
the ’dynamic modernity’.
It is a modernity that constantly uses both art

and rationality to attain greater knowledge. To
attain enlightenment, so to speak. The dynamic
modernity insisted – like Niels Bohr insisted at
a later date – that art and science are not each
other’s opposites; they complement each other.
Art is not about ’lying’, and science is not about excluding language. It can cut like a knife and
’truth’. They can both give us access to the divide us into insiders and outsiders. It is never
truth – in many different forms and they can totally individual and never totally universal.
both deceive and mislead us. It has to be learned and shared in a specific
community.
You, Stig Lennart Andersson, think that we
have been misled by rationality. We have been The poetic language of art, on the other hand,
misled by the easy answers that come from a is a shared, common language of all humans. It
cost-benefit mindset. does not need to be ’learned’ – but only to be
’awakened’. We only need to pay attention to
We have become calculating machines who it for it to work. The poetic language is at the
divide humans into those who benefit society same time individual – because it is about our
and those who ’cost too much’. We treat society own experience of the world – and universal,
like a business with profit and losses and losers because we all share sensations, emotions and
and winners. experiences that shape us as humans.
But we have forgotten to ask: Why? Why are we That is why art has an important mission in
doing this? Is this really the way we want to go? the world. And that is why architecture has an
What is really the meaning of a society? important mission in the world. And that is why
we need to take this exhibition very seriously.
But in a way we know that meaning can never
come from rationality. Rationality can tell us the We need to renew our attention to the poetic
easiest way to get to a place we want to go. But language of art. In architecture too – and in
it cannot tell us why we are going. And if we Denmark we have taken the first steps with a
have forgotten why, rationality can only lead us new architectural policy that puts emphasis on
further into … nowhere. both people and artistic excellence.
Meaning – on the other hand – can only come I have just presented a new strategy for
from philosophy, from mythology, from religion. children’s meeting with the arts. They must
From art. all from their earliest years be given the
opportunity of meeting art. And they must
Meaning comes from thepoetic language. all be given the opportunity of expressing
Language that finds its vocabulary in our themselves through art.
sensations and emotions, not in a dictionary.
The language that through images and Thank you Stig Lennart Andersson – thank
imagination creates a common bond between you to the Danish Architecture Centre and to
humans because it relates to our shared the Arts Foundation – and thank you to the
experience of time and the world. The ’book sponsors for supporting this exhibition.
language’ of rationality can quickly become an .
21
”Historically, Denmark is a strong reform country. That’s
why we have come further in the green transition process
than most other countries. We also want to be good at green
transitioning in the future, but we need strong decision-
makers who take into account the Danes’ changing values
and technology’s uncertain but vast power of influence.
That’s what defines the action space, and that’s what
DK2050 helps highlight.”
Torben Bundgaard Vad, partner in DAMVAD
Development of scenarios for
Denmark in the year 2050
The development of scenarios for Denmark’s green transition has happened

through a number of activities described in this chapter. This development of
scenarios has resulted in three products; a scenario report, evaluations of the
consequences of transport, energy, resources and water and a number of ideas of
architectural solutions for Denmark and Danish cities in 2050.
The green transition is not just about climate This also means that DK2050 does not
and environment. It’s also about work places, encompass everything. The energy and climate
quality of life, security policy and financing goals in the scenarios are based on a number
the welfare state. Torben Bundgaard Vad, of parameters – independence from fossil
partner in DAMVAD, who has developed the fuels, carbon-neutrality, the share of renewable
scenarios, says: ”It’s hard, maybe impossible, to energy as well as energy efficiency – that can
create a green transition without growth in a all be used to define the extent of the green
society. Many governments, cities, businesses transition in our society.
and organizations have already come to this
conclusion. That’s why it was one premise and By allowing scenario development, estimates
one of the unique aspects of the development of the consequences for transportation, energy,
of scenarios that we try to incorporate and resources and water as well as visualizations
balance both dimensions in something we of possible futures, DK2050 draws up the
call ’green growth’. Thus, the development of possibilities for political action.
scenarios has focused on the narrowly green
(energy, environment and climate) as well as The scenarios are meant to shape,
other important elements of the cities’ growth develop and innovate
systems.” The work with the scenarios and the debate it
has created needs to be useable both locally,
Demarcation regionally and nationally to shape strategies,
For the projects, five central themes have been develop businesses, create debate and political
chosen. Each theme is expanded on in all of the action. For instance, the municipalities must
scenarios: be able to use it in their strategic planning,
in their discussion and shaping of strategic
1. Citizens and society planning, business policy, innovation policy,
2. Energy and climate transport policy and settlement policy. The
3. Environment debate is already happening locally in the
4. Business and economy DK2050 municipalities, eg. in the workshops,
5. Transportation and mobility where citizens, business industry, interest
groups, government officials and politicians
These themes are chosen upon input from the meet to work on the four possible scenarios
participants in the project and based on research for their cities and communities. The scenarios
within the field. Another important demarcation have also created debate nationally – eg. at the
has been the fact that the project seeks to qualify People Meeting in 2014.
the areas where we in Denmark can influence the
national, regional and local development.
23
That’s why DK2050 seeks to uncover a range uncover the dilemmas we need to address in
of central questions: What possibilities do the future, and which can only be answered by
we have? What are the costs? What does a broad field of players and abilities.
the transitioning and transportation, energy
supply, resources and water take? What can the In order to qualify the debate, DK2050 has
consequences of different political actions be? gathered a group of national, regional and
How is it connected to our quality of life? What local players to paint a well-founded picture of
could our cities look like in 2050? How will possible futures for Denmark.
we live? These are some of the questions that
Høje-Taastrup in the year 2050? Pictures of the future can give a strong foundation for debates and decisions about which
decisions are needed to bring Denmark into 2050 in the best way possible. Illustration: WE architecture
THE FOUR SCENARIOS IN DK2050 identified a number of trends, which are sure to
Déjà-vus can be confusing. Have I experienced affect the direction in which Denmark develops
this before? As if a little piece of the future in the future:
has snuck up on the present and now pushes
our understanding of the world. This is how • urbanization
scenarios work: As we gaze into the crystal ball. • ageing population
The scenarios can make us think and act. This • digitalization
is why the project DK2050 uses scenarios as • climate changes
a key tool in creating a qualified debate about • development of green technology
which actions to take in order to realize green • co-creatioN
conversion 2050.
As opposed to this, we have the potential ways
The research-based consultancy DAMVAD in which the future may shape itself, ways that
has, in collaboration with futurologists from again shape the number of options and choices
the consulting and research company Kairos we have, when we want to influence the level of
Future, developed four scenarios predicting green conversion in Denmark.
how Denmark and Danish cities may develop,
the common denominator being green DAMVAD and Kairos Future have developed the
transition. These scenarios are meant to scenarios in DK2050 by taking as starting point
change the focus of the strategic and political two uncertainty axes: One is about whether
discussions from the immediate, present-day individual or collective values dominate in the
one to a focus on future, wider perspectives. future; the other about the level of interplay
between politics and green technology.
Multiple possible futures for Denmark Together, these axes of uncertainty create
The scenarios are made out of both trends that different scenarios, demonstrating what might
are certain, and trends that are still uncertain, propel green conversion in each of the four
possible developments. See overview of the scenarios. The four scenarios are outlined in
four scenarios on the following page. DAMVAD further detail in our scenario study ”Green
and Kairos Future has, in collaboration with growth in Denmark towards 2050: Four future
Danish municipalities, regions and businesses scenarios.”
”The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future, but

to seek out possible developments in order to aid decision-
makers in the planning of what might seem impossible today.
In other words, the scenario method is not an exact science.”
Ulf Boman, partner in Kairos Future
25
The axes of uncertainty create four
scenarios, each involving different major
players and each resulting in different GREEN NETWORKS
consequences for the future Denmark. In this scenario, green conversion is pushed forward by
The four scenarios in DK2050 have been
named in accordance to what drives green networks consisting of cities and businesses. The goals for
conversion in each scenario. green conversion are ambitious, but the international and
Sources: DAMVAD and Kairos Future national political framework within the field are not binding.
Behavioural patterns and values are founded in the notion
of the freedom of the individual. Green technology solutions
are developed with networks in mind and are aimed at being
implemented on a local rather than state level.
The solutions chosen from city to city vary greatly, as does

each city’s level of development. The liberal frame these cities
work within provides the best growth conditions for the four
major cities in Denmark and for smaller towns. The same goes
for businesses; Big businesses and many smaller businesses,
located in either major cities or a few small towns, thrive under
these circumstances.
GREEN GUERILLA
Green conversion in this scenario is managed from the
bottom by citizens’ groups, passionates and businesses,
that each determine their own goals for green conversion.
As a consequence of lacking political will to prioritize
green conversion, even minor green solutions are yet to be
implemented.
Despite problems with congestion and housing shortage, the

major cities manage by coming up with small, local solutions.
Smaller towns with a high amenity value and local solutions
do well. The medium-sized cities are under pressure. Danish
industry is located in major cities and a few smaller towns.
GREEN STATE
In this scenario, green conversion is pushed forward by
the state. On both a national and an international level, the
mindset is community-oriented, and carbon reductions
and green conversion are high on the agenda – for citizens
and businesses as well. Large-scale, community-oriented
solutions, also on a both national and international level,
have been developed, for instance within the areas energy
supply and recycling.
These developments have resulted in increasing

urbanization and growth in the four major city regions,
Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg. The
medium-sized cities, that have plugged into these cities’
developments, also do well. Danish industry is located in
these city regions and primarily consists of big businesses.
GREEN COMPROMISES
In this scenario, green conversion is of secondary
importance in policy-making, and often implemented as
part of a compromise in a powerful state that prioritizes, for
instance, growth and security policy. This tendency is also
prevalent on an international level and in the way citizens
and businesses prioritize.
The ambition is to connect towns and medium-sized cities

to the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg. The level
of urbanization increases, and small towns in particular
depopulate. Danish industry is spread out around the
country and consists of multiple small businesses and a few
big businesses.
27
solvarme, kommunale affaldssystemer mv. ændres fra
En omlægning af det danske energisystem til dag) til at
100% VE er en enorm stor opgave, der kræver, at
alle interessenter (staten, kommunerne, energi- Det er van
forsyningsselskaber, virksomheder, investorer, den grønn
borgerer m.fl.) bliver involveret. Ambitionen om (målt som
uafhængighed er endnu vanskeligere især inden denne er a
for transport, der kræver, at nye teknologier bli- rammefor
ver rullet ud, samt at også vores vaner og adfærd på CO2 ud
GREEN, GREENER, GREENEST

Are all scenarios equally green? That is the
question. The answer is: They can be, but the 100%
probability of them being equally green is
small because the costs of going 100 percent
carbon- neutral are bigger in eg. scenarios 90%
’Green compromises’ and ’Green guerilla’ than
in ’Green networks’ and ’Green state’. It all
depends on economy and the driving forces 80%
behind each scenario, and most of all on
political will and energy.
The scenarios demonstrate different shades of 70%
green and make it clear that not all pale green
roads lead us to a Denmark free of fossil fuels
by 2050. 60%
It’s difficult to know how the development of the
green transition in each scenario will go, since it 50%
depends on national and global frame conditions.
According to Rambøll’s estimates of a possible
development – using the development in carbon 40%
NETVÆRK
reductions as an indicator – the four scenarios
could look like this.
GREEN NETWORKS
30%
STATE
GREEN STAT
20% GRØNNE
GRØN
10%
CO2 Reduktion i 2050

In their study ”Metrics of green conversion in Denmark
Figur 4.1: Et muligt forløb
towardsfor CORambøll
2050”, 2 udledningen i de
has estimated 4 scenarier kan illusteres s
possible
consequences of each of the four scenarios –
here according to the degree of carbon reduction.
In Rambøll’s estimates, ’Green compromises’ is
used as a baseline scenario, where only political
decisions that have already been made, are
carried through towards 2050.
The three other scenarios can be perceived

as three different roads with three different
degrees of green transition. A complete green
transition to 100 percent renewable energy
and independence from fossil fuels, a massive
reduction in energy costs and carbon neutrality
is, according to Rambøll, most realistic in the
’Green state’ scenario.
”Which investments are

smart? Because we can’t
just invest in unprofitable
solutions. The scenarios
instroduce frames that have
GREEN GUERILLA
consequences for, how

COMPROMISES
expensive it will be to realize

the green transition in each
scenario”
GREEN
Nadeem Niwaz, energy planner, Rambøll
29
SCENARIOS DEVELOPED ACROSS
DENMARK The three elements have come about in a
The development of scenarios happened in a process where a number of activities have
process involving citizens, professionals and involved municipalities, citizens, professionals
politicians from all over Denmark. and experts.
The work with the scenarios unfolds in three The illustration beneath shows how the
elements; together they paint a picture of four activities were born into the work developing
possible futures for Denmark. the scenarios and have made the scenarios,
and Denmark’s green transition, a topic of
Then scenarios of DAMVAD and Kairos Future discussion along the way.
have been used as a foundation for Rambøll’s
estimates of how Denmark’s transport, energy, In the following pages, the activities and
resources and water can each develop in the their input to the development of scenarios
four scenarios. The two elements are the basis are expanded on.
on which three architect firms have worked on
and come up with solutions.
Camp 0 Camp 1 Camp 2 Local workshops in Architecture biennale

Trends identified Mayoral debate Expert input DK2050 municipalities in Venice
November 2013 January 2014 May 2014 May 2014 June 2014
Development of scenarios (DAMVAD & Kairos Future)
Field trip to Venice for the
Debate at the architecture People's Meeting Architects in dialogue municipalities participating DK2050 conference
biennale in Venice in Bornholm with municipalities in DK2050
June 2014 June 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014
Estimates of consequences (Rambøll)
Architectural processing (MUTOPIA, WE architecture & SLETH)
31
Camp 0
TRENDS IDENTIFIED regions. This led to the naming of a number

The development of scenarios truly began at of themes which DAMVAD used as a starting
CAMP 0, when the many participants in the point for the ensuing dialogue with all the
project got together at the Danish Architecture municipalities and regions of the project about
Centre to identify trends and uncertainties their specific needs, perspectives and interests.
related to possible developments in Danish city
Players from eg. municipalities, regions, government administrations, ministries, businesses and foundations identify trends
and uncertainties which can impact Danish cities in their green transition.
Using the project’s ambitions as their starting vision, come up with a definition, city regions
point, the participants drew up their wishes for and their future meaning for Denmark, use
what they wanted to obtain by participating in economic models, challenge habitual thinking,
the development of scenarios. The conclusion create concrete pictures and contribute to
was that developing scenarios should create a increase decision-power in the economic-
shared knowledge across the country, a shared political sphere.
33
Camp 1
MAYORS ON A TRIP TO 2050 The scenarios were challenged and qualified by

The first results of the scenario development more than hundred participants from all over
were presented at CAMP 1 in the Danish the country.
Architecture Centre, and mayors from the
participating municipalities begun the national The mayors travelled to the year 2050. They
and local debate about the role that Danish looked back and reflected on the important
cities and urban regions will play in the green initiatives taken by the municipalities had taken
transition towards 2050. since 2014 in order to contribute to making the
national 2050 goal a reality.
”Copenhagen must dare to create collective solutions which

have made everyday life easier for each citizen and have led
to a better quality of life as well as created more jobs for the
people people of the city.”
Frank Jensen, Lord Mayor of Copenhagen
Mayors from the participating municipalities met on January 30, 2014, to discuss how they and their cities can contribute
to the green transition.
”In Kalundborg, it was the focus on recycling and the
courage to be a kind of exploratorium that tested eg. waste
water cleaning with algae which made the difference. On a
larger scale, the service across the Kattegat has made all
of Denmark more connected.”
Martin Damm, mayor of Kalundborg
It was made obvious that national and regional In other words, it became clear that the
infrastructure as well as co-creation were DK2050 mayors favoured a future scenario for
seen as important premises for the cities’ Denmark situated somewhere between ’Green
green transition. Several people stressed that networks’ and ’Green state’.
municipalities would benefit from working
together on dividing tasks and focus areas
between them.
”In Ringkøbing-Skjern, the focus on foodstuffs and tourism

enabled us to maintain production and came to work as a
’demonstratorium’ that many participants of DK2050 find
inspiring. This was all due to the fact that we focused on
productive businesses’ frame conditions, on renewable
energy, and the fact that Ringkøbing K already took a big
step in the 2010s.”
Iver Enevoldsen, mayor of Ringkøbing-Skjern
35
It was clear during the debates and in the • Targeted work with social connectivity
political reflections on green decision that in connection with green transition, so
there is a need for: that citizens become part of the green
development. Urban life and social
• More collaboration across city borders, conditions need to be the to account
if we want to reach our climate goals. It which industries Denmark should
was agreed that a shared planning and focus on in the future, and where they
collaboration between the municipalities is should be located. A driving force of
a necessity. development and one of the core tasks for
• A much larger coherence between national the municipalities is to help break down
goals, the ensuing policies and the negative social inheritance.
strategies o the municipalities. • Focus on education within green
• Bigger investments in stronger, national technology, IT and health – eg. green
infrastructure, since it is closely connected artisans and workmen.
to business development all over the
country. All perspectives were taken into account in the
• A national business strategy – connected following work on the scenarios.
to an export strategy – which proactively
take in.
There was a lively debate about the part played by municipalities in the green transition. The photo shows Hans Henrik
Henriksen, alderman in the Municipality of Aalborg.
Camp 2
DECISION POWER AND COLLABORATION ”I think the four scenarios

All the players of DK2050 got together in reflect reality quite well.
Aarhus for CAMP 2, to be bombarded with
knowledge, pictures and scenarios by experts, ’Green guerilla’ describes
engineers, analysts and architects. The speakers the international reality at
challenged, qualified and discussed the four the moment. There’s nothing
scenarios and the green future of Denmark with
the many participants. big going on politically. But
things grow in other places.
All the lectures had one thing in common: In the I think we need to get to
end, everything depends on political decision
power. Søren Brøndum, president of transport ’Green state’.”
at Rambøll put it like this: ”If we want something Thomas Færgeman,
to happen, we need big political decisions now.” former president of CONCITO
This perspective was discussed further at the
People Meeting, as well as back home in the
participants’ municipalities.
In Aarhus, mayor Jacob Bundsgaard welcomed the participants to a day where they would be presented with a number of
new perspectives and knowledge about the possibilities of green transition. Photo: Mads Krabbe
37
Brian Vad Mathiesen, professor (AAU) put
it like this: ”To reach our goal of a complete
transition, we need efficiency. We can get
there with the same costs on energy and
transportation systems we have today. Most
of the technologies are already available,
but take political will to implement.” In other
words, everyone agreed on the relevance of
the uncertainty axe that DAMVAD and Kairos
Future meant to be one of the two defining
axes in the development of scenarios.
Wide-set collaboration
Another important point that was mentioned
again and again during the day was the need
for a wide-set collaboration, across sectors,
fields and geography, in order for the green
transition to work. Mark Lorenzen, professor
at CBS, stressed that ”collaboration between
cities of different sizes is completely necessary
if we want to avoid many parts of Denmark to
be depopulated. This means that smaller cities
need to collaborate with bigger ones, and that Mark Lorenzen, professor at CBS.
medium-sized cities must work with each other.”
”The collaboration across

generations is one of the can’t realize the green transition without the
biggest challenges, but rest of the country being on board – it is after
also one of the biggest all in the countryside that our food and our
electricity is produced. Our research shows that
opportunities we have for all cities play a part, big ones and small ones,
influencing the development but in different ways.”
and realize the green Thomas Færgemann sees it as essential to
transition.” focus on the way we live: ”If Denmark still wants
Mark Lorenzen, professor at CBS to be a leading country, the most important
thing we can do is to present people with
The importance of cities as well as cities and interesting and attractive ways of living, where
rural areas working together was also stressed the carbon footprint of each individual is
by Brian Vad Mathiesen who said that large actually reduced.”
cities can’t do it on their own: ”Bigger cities
It takes investments
A green transition demands investments and
thinking in synergies between systems. It can also
help create many new jobs, according to Brian Vad
Mathiesen: ”We can make 20,000 jobs towards
2050 if we carry this transition to 100 percent
renewable energy through. It will demand that
we invest locally and that we create synergies
between district heating systems, electricity and
transportation as well as the gas network for
example. By taking advantage of these synergies
between systems and technologies, we create the
cheapest transition.”
”Big, collective investments

are very important. In order
to move 10 percent into
public transportation, we
have to double the current
investments. Togfonden –
the train foundation – which Brian Van Mathiesen, professor at Aalborg University
has already been passed,

only makes us keep up.”
Søren Brøndum,
president of transport at Rambøll
According to Thomas Færgemann, investments

need to be made in wind energy: ”Honestly,
Denmark is made to produce wind energy for
Europe. We can do much more of it.”
Even though there are several possible

futures, we don’t know for certain that eg.
transportation will look much different than
today. It takes time to change our systems.
Søren Brøndum describes it like this: ”If we
climbed up on a roof 35 years ago and go
up there again now, we wouldn’t see a big
difference in the way we get around. It will be
like that in 2050 too.”
Søren Vad Mathiesen, president of transport at Rambøll
39
Local debate
THE SCENARIOS FOR DEBATE LOCALLY In workshops attended by citizens, council men,
In order to contribute to, develop and root the business owners and interest groups who were
debate about green transition locally within the invited by the city themselves, it was discussed
participating municipalities, the scenarios were what life in 2050 could look like locally, and
used as a starting point for a number of events which actions were necessary right now to
all over Denmark. The goal was to challenge create the best conditions for an attractive
and test the potential of the scenarios as development in the municipalities. The points
discussion triggers. of departure were the themes that the cities
had just named as central for the future.
The four scenarios have been discussed locally in the DK2050 municipalities. The photo is taken in Fredericia.
The work resulted in a number of manifestos Locally, the discussions were also used as
from the citizens to their local councils as input for the plan-strategic work. In Odense,
well as to national politicians of ideas on how for instance, where the workshop was part of
we meet the future and the level of transition the city’s development strategic work. One of
locally and nationally in the best possible way. the ideas for the politicians was this one: ”Hold
These manifestos for the local politicians on to the vision of creating a culture where
became the foundation for discussion between everyone collaborates on reaching a shared
citizens and local politicians. goal, and where you dare to make courageous
decisions.”
The strong attendance and lively debate in the municipalities has proven that the citizens are interested in contributing
actively to the cities’ visions and development strategies towards 2050. The photo is from Ringkøbing-Skjern.
Photo: Mads Krabbe
41
In Ringkøbing-Skjern, policians also viewed These discussions and ideas were documented
the day as input for the on-going strategic on digital platform for co-creation and
development work. The messsage from the involvement TAGDEL.dk. Here, the debate
citizens was clear: ”Ringkøbing-Skjern must and involvement can go on in each of the
have a goal of being number one when it comes municipalities in the future, and this tool can be
to energy, foodstuffs and tourism by 2050.” used to involve citizens in the work with urban
plan strategies, architecture policies etc.
The manifestos for the national politicians
at Christiansborg were used as ideas for the
discussion at the People Meeting 2014. One of
the ideas from the citizens was this one: ”Make
better frames, terms and conditions for the
municipalities wishing to create sustainability.”
In Høje-Taastrup, citizens and local businesses discussed the future of the municipality with mayor Michael Ziegler and the
city council.
The local days have shown a thorough need In the scenario report ’Green growth in
to connect Denmark geographically. Several Denmark towards 2050’ it is clearly stated
citizens urged the country’s politicians that cities are facing a historical turning point
to create better infrastructure which can in order to reform the national debate about
help the feeling of connectivity instead of infrastructural solutions. Citizens, businesses
disconnectedness. Better infrastructure and local politicians go started on that all
is directly connected to better growth around Denmark.
opportunities in the country as well as a bigger
room for new patterns of settlement.
The day culminated in a discussion with local politicians in the council hall about which actions and decisions are
needed in order to realize the green transition and create the framework for a good life in each municipality and city.
Photo: Mads Krabbe
43
Debate at the Venice Biennale
AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Among other things, the professionals and

ON DK2050 experts debated which kind of cities we, as
The scenarios for the future of cities and a society, will want to live and work in in the
urban regions were lifted onto an international future. Which values mean something to us,
platform, when – at the Venice biennale 2014 and what should planners, architects and
– Danish as well as international experts and politicians prioritize when developing the cities
professionals discussed how we can plan of the future? Matthias Sauerbruch, partner in
intelligently based on accessible knowledge Sauerbruch Hutton, puts it like this:
and history connected to the development
of cities and city regions all over the world
towards 2050.
Partipants in the debate outside the Danish pavilion in Tina Saabye, professor of energy infrastructure and
Venice: Landscape architect and founder of SLA Stig sustainability at AAU Brian Vad Mathiesen, mayor of Høje-
L. Andersson, Independent futurist at Future Motions, Taastrup Michael Ziegler and architect and partner in
president at Dutch Future Society, analyst at The Hague Sauerbruch Hutton Matthias Sauerbruch. The debate was
Centre for Strategic Studies Freja Van Duijne, architect moderated by the CEO of the Danish Architecture Centre,
and partner in MUTOPIA Serban Cornea, deputy mayor of Kent Martinussen. Photo: Camerafoto Arte
Sønderborg Aase Nyegaard, city architect of Copenhagen
”The challenges for To the citizens, the good urban life is about
architects today are to more than a building, which was underlined
by curator of the Empowerment of Aesthetics
find ways that create in the Danish pavilion Stig L. Andersson: ”We
the emotional ties that ask people what they want today, and they
relates to the history tell us that they want something that is more
aesthetic in the cities, something that the built
and the new demands environment cannot provide today.”
such as sustainability in
the development of the During the debate, it became clear that many
of the same problems and needs arise, whether
future cities.” a planner in a small Danish municipality
Matthias Sauerbruch, partner in Sauerbruch is working on a plan for the city centre, or
someone is working on the plans for a big
A general theme in the debates was how we city abroad. The debate event proved that an
create a better balance between what we build interdisciplinary approach, the development
and what grows naturally – ie. by using our of scenarios and the involvement of citizens
knowledge of history and technology, when we in DK2050 can also serve as inspiration
think green transition into the planning of our internationally in other cities and urban regions.
future cities. The many debaters agreed that
particularly the involvement of citizens and
broad collaboration can contribute to creating
a better balance.
Danish minister of culture Marianne Jelved opened the Danish pavilion at The Architecture Biennale in Venice 2014.
Photo: Camerafoto Arte
45
The People Meeting in Bornholm
GREEN TRANSITION BEING DISCUSSED The debates highlighted a number of themes and
AT THE PEOPLE MEETING areas where we can act right now; from creating
In the DK2050 tent at the People Meeting 2014, more room for more experimental solutions and
citizens were presented with the four future inventing new forms of involvement to carry
scenarios for Denmark’s green transition during the green transition through both politics and
18 debates and workshops with business people, professionalism. Some of the interdisciplinary
politicians, professionals, experts and interest lessons and interesting inputs which came out of
groups. The goal of the many discussions and the DK2050 debates at the People Meeting 2014,
workshops was to put Denmark’s sustainable are described In the following paragraphs.
development and green growth in Danish cities
on the agenda and to inspire further debate and It takes political willpower and courage
action locally, regionally and nationally. One theme that came up during every debate
was the importance of the connection between
Among the themes being vigourously discussed political will, the responsibility of the business
was how energy policy and welfare can co-exist, sector and the motivation of the population.
the homes of the future, innovation, citizen The political will to make long-sighted decisions
involvement, architecture policy, rural districts and plan, like with the Danish so-called five-
and infrastructure. See the full programme in finger-plan and the district heating network,
appendix 1. was highlighted as essential for the green
Debates caught on and were formed by the manifestos from citizens of the DK2050 municiplalities and business owners
and inspired by pictures from the scenarios. Photo: Justine Høgh
transition of Denmark to succeed. As Hanne ”The energy sector is
Christensen, executive director at Rambøll put it: characterized by very long
”We can export quality of life and sustainability.
It demands political choices. Such as the investments. The decisions
investment in the district heating network. We we make now have far-
have to secure some far-sighted solutions. The reaching consequences.
battle has to be fought in the cities – and we
need a long-term plan. If we are to sell anything, We agree in parliament that
it has to be bigger, coherent solutions.” we need to become free of
fossil fuels in Denmark. The
It was underlined again and again that it takes
investments to realize the green transition. challenge is that we have
Lars Goldschmidt, parliamentary candidate politicians who are only
(Socialdemokraterne) and former president of chosen for four years at
the Conferederation of Danish Industry (DI) said
it like this: ”There ARE costs. But if we have a a time.”
long-term plan, we can take the many little steps, Rasmus Helveg Petersen,,
where many people can work to make it happen, minister of climate, energy and building
and we can afford to make mistakes sometimes.
And it doesn’t happen through the market alone.”
Lars Goldschmidt, former president of DI. Rasmus Helveg Petersen, minister of climate, energy and
building. Photo: Anders Beier
47
In other words, the decision power needs to be GreenLab for photonics and lighting: ”What
combined with a flexibility that allows decisions we need is political will and courage. Social
to adapt to the opportunities, the future innovation built on value-based and ideological
presents us with. Architect Lars Jensen from decisions, lead to green transition.”
SLETH used the finger plan as an example:
”The finger plan did not end up the way we Architects make Mrs. Jensen’s dream
expected. That’s why we need to plan in a way come alive
that allows us to be flexible.” The part that architects play in building the
future Denmark was discussed on several
Several people said that the green transition occasions. The architects were criticized for
and the political courage to think far ahead sins of the past, but there was also a general
is also about jobs, export and growth. Tonny belief that they can play a central role as
Johansen, CEO of Rambøll Management translators and dream-makers. One citizen from
Consulting put it like this: ”Denmark is Friland would like to work alongside architects:
important on a global scale when it comes to ”We need an overview – that’s where I could
this. We have some insanely important skills use an architect. If we share our dreams with
which are good business for Denmark. We have them, they can show us the big lines and the
the opportunities – meaning we have a duty. possibilities.” Minister of culture Marianne
This readiness has evolved over a long period Jelved also expressed faith: ”Architects must
of time – since the five-finger-plan.” His view help translate Mrs. Jensen’s needs. We have to
was shared and expanded upon by Flemming build on your expertise.”
Madsen, head of secretariat at DOLL – National
In the tent, visitors could see the four scenarios and take part in debates about the green transition.
”I strongly appeal to the for few seconds, and then it will return even
expertise of the architects, stronger in the dialogue with Mrs. Jensen,
with the landscape and the room between the
because we need it to qualify houses. The art of building is stronger when
the discussion with eg. the we are in it together. Yes, of course we have
citizens when they decide to take people into consideration. It’s a little
embarrassing that it’s that interesting. Good
and share what quality is in architecture has only ever been about that.”
their everyday lives.”
Marianne Jelved, minister of culture The collaboration between citizens and
architects was also addressed by a citizen who
Several architects were very keen on the is member of the local council in Amager: ”In
dialogue with the citizens. As Lars Juel Thiis order to have a real meeting between citizens
from CUBO put it: ”We shouldn’t give home- and architects, we should invite the architects
owners what they ask for, but show them into the local bar and do the drawings together
what the things they dream of could hold. We by the pool table.”
give their dreams wings.” But there is also a
need for guidelines and expectations to align,
stressed Natalie Mossin, president of the Let us build together
Danish Architects’ Association: ”A successful The fact that neither architects, citizens or
involvement is also about being precise so we politicians are facing the challenges of building
make it clear what can be done, and what can’t.” the future Denmark alone was clear during all
of the debates. It’s a task that everyone has to
However, citizens and architects don’t always take part in, said minister of culture Marianne
see eye to eye. Kristine Virén from Bolius Jelved: ”You can’t say that it’s only about the
teased during the debate on the homes of climate, the green transition or the rules that
the future: ”The home-owners’ wishes and need to be changed. That’s why so many need
needs are an architect’s worst nightmare. To to take part in this.”
an architect cosiness is a limiting frame – to
a home-owner it’s the core.” The fact that the Dialogue, co-creation, involvement and
coming together of citizens and architects innovation were highlighted as important
isn’t always smooth sailing is something that tools in the future. Tina Saaby, city architect
Jens Thomas Arnfred, partner in Tegnestuen in Copenhagen, stressed that citizens play an
Vandkunsten, finds interesting too: ”There has important part – and will continue to do so:
to be a conflict in the meeting between quality ”We need to create the city together – and
and civic involvement. The green transition and the citizens must help us prioritize. We need
the longing for more human conditions in the some new structures and formats for dialogue
built environment have been on the agenda between all of us. Between politicians, citizens,
for many years. I dream about architects architects and planners. There is a need for a
daring to push for more radical agendas so paradigm shift. I will take up with co-workers,
we have something to talk about. We must let politicians and citizens how we can have that
our longing run loose, give away our expertise conversation.”
49
Citizens discussing Denmark’s
green future.
51
The important part that the civil society plays city.” But nature outside of the city was a
in the building of Denmark’s future is a central point of focus too. Especially, as a recreational
ambition in the architecture policy which was opportunity. Lars Juel Thiis from CUBO said:
launched in 2014. This is what Serban Cornea, ”We need to talk about a new nature. We need
partner in MUTOPIA, has to say about it: ”It to look at all the nature that people leave behind
inspires you to develop architecture by looking when they move into the cities.”
at synergies. We must carry out the green
transition together. Businesses, municipalities We get together in new communities
and citizens must become a new collective There was a clear sense that communities are
power source.” growing during the debates in the pavilion.
The co-op community, the small village-like
Every single day during the People Meeting, community and little communities in the city
children filled the tent to build the cities and were mentioned again and again as important
houses of the future. It’s important that the driving forces in the green transition. Lars Juul
children of ’generation 2050’ – those who Thiis, CUBO, said: ”A sense of community is
will be grown-up citizens in 35 years – get important. The larger sense of community has
involved as early as possible, according been lost, but it’s coming back. We are getting
to Natalie Mossin, president of the Danish close again.” The small communities in the
Architects’ Association: ”Involvement is also city were mentioned as an important cohesive
sharing a culture when it comes to architecture power and generator for the green transition.
– beginning in primary school.” Minister of culture Marianne Jelved put it
like this: ”Community and perspective. What
Nature in the city children, youngsters and old people need is
Nature and city are not opposites – according community. Together and across generations.
to many debaters and citizens in the DK2050 That’s why we want to design our cities like
tent, together they are the solution to the green villages within the big city, making the sense
transition. ”Why don’t we design cities that we of community a premise for life to function. We
want to spend time in – at the weekend too? So need each other’s hands and knowledge.”
that we don’t jump on the first plane when we
have some time off?” asked Thomas Færgemann,
former president of Concito. He went on: ”We
”It’s important that we
need to build cities that people want to stay in – focus on projects in the
even when they are not working.” civil society: Securing small
communities within the
”We don’t want to make a larger community across
forest in the city, we want to generations. Taking young
create the feeling the forest people’s needs seriously.
gives us.” Support vision and
Rasmus Astrup, project president in SLA community.”
Jannik Nyrop, head of city strategic staff,
Peder Baltzer Nielsen, city architect in Aalborg, municipality of Odense
kept it short: ”We must bring nature into the
During a debate on the homes of the future, a
citizen from Nørrebro in Copenhagen challenged
the debaters: ”I am almost Mrs. Jensen – my
name is Henriksen. I am building a senior house-
share. What we are faced with is the fact that we
can’t afford something that is both beautiful, has
quality and is sustainable. Is good, interesting
architecture only meant for rich people?”
Room for experiments

The wish for more room and will to experiment
was also on the agenda during several debates,
from both citizens and professionals who
dream of a more spacious room for innovation,
testing of new ideas and initiatives as well as
the possibility of experimenting with different
types of buildings. Serban Cornea, partner in firm
of architects MUTOPIA, who has designed the
scenarios for several municipalities in DK2050,
said: ”I’m looking for a project with room for
experiments. Fewer rules. Can we build an entire
neighbourhood where we try out self-building?”
”People must organize it Iver Enevoldsen, mayor of Ringkøbing-Skjern.

themselves – there are too
many rules, and they are old-
fashioned.”
Iver Enevoldsen, mayor of Ringkøbing-Skjern
Tina Saaby, city architect in Copenhagen.
53
Innovation was also on the agenda for Infrastructure must connect us to
Johannes Lundsfryd Jensen, chairman of each other
Socialdemokraterne in the municipality The possibility of moving efficiently and in a
of Middelfart: ”We WANT to make social green fashion – to and from work and across
innovations. Innovation is a creative destruction the country – was one of the manifestos that
where something dies. We have a lot of small the citizens and business communities had
and medium-sized businesses that are good come up with for DK2050. Infrastructure was
when it’s not about quantity, but about transition, also the important subject of an entire debate,
about newness.” where Torben Liborius, business political
head of the Danish Construction Association,
Several people said that the problem is not The said: ”We have a tendency to underestimate
Planning Act – it’s the will to take advantage of the developments. It’s brave to look all the way
the possibilities that are already there. Peder through to 2050. The important thing is to look
Baltzer Nielsen, city architect, Aalborg, said: ”The at the structure, that mobility has to fit into.
frames are good enough. But we don’t use them.” The green transition can only be successful
.
Mayor of Odense Anker Boye participated in the debate ‘Can Denmark and Danish city regions afford to be green
frontrunners?’ at the People Meeting.
if we develop our affluence along with it. Our Bjerregaard, mayor of Fredericia, too: ”We must
demands for individual comfort create a need for create a well-balanced Denmark. This means
new forms of transportation. Our network needs developing our public transportation system –
to be a lot more small-meshed. It needs to be a and not from a centralistic mindset.”
’both and’: Both individual and public means of Changes in our means of transportation are
transportation.” about more than motorways and railroads.
Klaus Bondam, president of the Danish Cyclists’
”We need to think of Federation, urged the government to ”set up a
mobility committee and appoint a minister of
infrastructure in a broader mobility” and furthermore said ”We must levy a
sense – including the tax on consumption. We have one of the oldest
internet. If we don’t get more fleet of cars on Europe because of our tax
structure.”
intensive with infrastructure
on the internet, all of
Denmark is a fringe area” ”We must design city centres
with shopping, activity and
Torben Liborius, business political head
of the Danish Construction Association
happiness – and then move
jobs and businesses to the
The combination of several means of suburbs”
transportation was on the mind of Hans Henrik Jacob Bjerregaard, mayor of Fredericia
Henriksen, alderman in Aalborg, too: ”We need
to create frames where citizens can use many A citizen from Brøndby had an earnest request:
different forms of transportation. The driver and ”To get to Copenhagen, people need to pass
the cyclist are both dead. Long live the mobilist.” through Brøndby. I know how many wait in line
But mobilists have a hard time according to on the motor roads. You need to create huge
citizens from West Fionia: ”They want to close parking spaces in Roskilde. Why are the jobs in
down stations, meaning we can’t bike to the Copenhagen and up north? Move the jobs to
station anymore.” The challenge of connecting where people live.”
all of Denmark was on the mind of Jacob
”Denmark is important on a global scale when it comes to

this. We have some insanely important skills which are good
business for Denmark. We have the opportunities – meaning
we have a duty.”
Tonny Johansen, CEO, Rambøll Management Consulting
55
Torben Liborius, business political head of the
Danish Construction Association.
Lars Aagaard, CEO,

Danish Energy Association.
Tonny Johansen,
CEO, Rambøll
Management
Consulting.
Dan Stubbergaard, founder of design studio Cobe. Marianne Jelved, minister of culture.
Jens Jonathan Steen, head of analysis, Cevea.
Hanne Christensen, executive director,

Rambøll.
Uffe Elbæk, party Natalie Mossin, president of the

founder, Alternativet. Danish Architects’ Association
Thomas Færgemann, former president, Concito.
57
Future possibilities –
present actions
On November 5, 2014, the participants of DK2050 met for the conference

”Future possibilities – present actions” in Rambøll’s home in Copenhagen’s
Ørestad neighbourhood. The four final scenarios for green growth were
presented and discussed here.
The players of the DK2050 project described At the end of the day, a number of debaters
Denmark of the future in words and pictures battled these dilemmas and the possiblities
and debated international perspectives as well. that Denmark faces in a debate called ’A well-
During the conference, DAMVAD and Kairos balanced Denmark – how to best meet our
Future presented their scenarios and discussed ambitions for a tramsitioned green Denmark by
the strategic dilemmas faced by Danish cities 2050’. Journalist Martin Krasnik asked critical
and urban regions. These dilemmas were questions and moderated the discussions
qualified and debated by a number of experts along the way.
and illustrated through the visual work of the
architects and Rambøll on a city level. A NEW BEGINNING
Hanne Christensen, executive director at
Rambøll, welcomed the participants and
”The way I feel about stressed that Danish cities can play an
DK2050 is that there’s important part in the green transition if
both some American they wish to. ”For this to succeed, it’s vital
that we work across sectors, nationally and
optimism about the future internationally. This is the way we create
in the project – but at the coherence and balance in the green transition,”
same time it’s amazing, she said and urged the many participants
to throw themselves into the work and the
because the project shows important debates.
that it’s complex. It goes
where it hurts politically,
where reality creeps in. For
instance – are politicians
ready to ban private
motoring?”
Martin Krasnik,
moderator at the DK2050 conference
The partipants were able to follow the development of

DK2050 in a timeline. This picture shows a collection
of pictures from workshops in the DK2050 municipalities
and from the People Meeting in Bornholm. Photo:
Lars Engelgaard
59
WE WANT TO INVEST IN that we’d rather give people a fishing rod than a
FISHING RODS bucket of fish. This way, they can go out and go
In order to shed light on why a philanthropic for it,” explained Jesper Nygård and elaborated:
organization such as Realdania wants to ”First and foremost, we want to move focus
contribute with both money and knowledge to from projects to problems. Problems that we
a project such as DK2050, CEO Jesper Nygård don’t know how to solve already, and problems
was invited to speak about agenda-creating, characterized by the fact that we can’t solve
problem-driven philanthropy. One of Jesper them individually. We try to facilitate the
Nygård’s important points was that a project like meeting between different parties in order to
DK2050 can move Denmark because it is built collect knowledge and create networks, so that
on strong expertise from a number of different we can identify and create sustainable, far-
sectors and focuses on solutions to complex sighted solutions. We hope that this is a way
challenges that stretch far into the future. to create a national development towards a
sustainable Denmark.” So, it’s about gathering
”What does Realdania feel could come out of the strongest competences and players in a
investing in a project like DK2050?” Martin community and trying to solve the complex
Krasnik asked Jesper Nygård. ”We usually say challenges of our society.
DK2050 contributes to putting Denmark on the world map as a pioneer when it comes to green transition,
said Jesper Nygård. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
Jesper Nygård underlined that future scenarios
as method can work, because they can make
abstract and long-term perspectives seem
relevant. He said: ”A lot of good can come
out of developing future scenarios in the way
DK2050 has already done. It’s a way to make
it concrete and real to all of us. Since the
challenges of the future are multi-facetted, it’s
of vital importance that we think in alternatives.
The four scenarios give us a good idea of the
roads we can take.”
According to Jesper Nygård, the four scenarios

show that there is no simple solution, and
that one of the central uncertainties that we
need to address, is where we will land when it
comes to the connection between politics and
technology in a time where faith in the political
system is at an all-time low. He stressed that
municipalities and regions are important players
in the green transition. ”I think that focus has
shifted enormously in the municipalities and
regions, but there is a lack of money and tools.
(…) I doubt we can fix this by taking small steps,
we need bigger steps – huge chunks.”
”What is standing in the way of this happening,”

asked Martin Krasnik. ”We have many incentive
structures that don’t support far-sighted, big
thinking,” answered Jesper Nygård. DK2050 can
help bare the possibilities we need to act on now
– such as changing incentive structures – and
prepare us to the futures we might be facing.
61
BE PREPARED FOR MULTIPLE the past 10 years, and I conduct two things from
FUTURES that: One is the ability to identify signs; scenarios
The most important thing is to be prepared can improve your ability to identify which signs
for more than one future and keep an eye out to watch out for in order to sense where things
for signs and necessary decisions. This was are going. The other is to identify the actions we
the message from Simon Giles, director global should take no matter what. Eg. investments and
lead of Smart Technology Strategy, Accenture. decisions that will have a positive outcome no
Simon Giles gave – with respect for what matter the future we face.” Simon Giles stressed
history has shown us – the audience a glimpse that scenarios can create a momentum and an
into the trends, certain as well as uncertain – opportunity to act instead of being ’paralyzed by
he foresees. You can read his entire lecture on stagnation’.
pages 84-93.
”But won’t sceptics say that we can’t imagine
Afterwards, Martin Krasnik asked Simon Giles of what the future will bring, today?” asked Martin
it actually makes any sense to work with future Krasnik. ”Yes, and that’s why I make the division
scenarios. ”I believe it does,” said Simon Giles between what we know for relatively sure and
and went on: ”I have worked with scenarios for can act on and what we don’t. 3D printing, for
Participants from all over Denmark and all kinds of sectors listened to Simon Giles’ presentation at the DK2050 conference.
Photo: Lars Engelgaard
instance. We know it will have a huge impact. Finally, Martin Krasnik asked if Simon Giles really
That allows us to position ourselves more thinks it is realistic for Denmark to reach the
efficiently and in a matter that is likely to prove most optimistic scenario, ’Green state’ with 100
economically fruitful. The other thing is agility – percent renewable energy. Even if politicians are
our ability to react. Unless we create possibilities willing to think long-term? Simon Giles stressed
and flexibility for ourselves in the way we look to that technically it is absolutely possible, but
the future, we risk sending many into a big hole,” also said: ”But is it possible economically and
was the answer from Simon Giles. politically? I’m less sure about that. The cause
of my doubt is that the price, a weakening
Thus, Simon Giles explained the necessities and of the Danish competitive power, would be
possibilities he sees in the scenario method that politically unacceptable. So it’s an economic and
DK2050 has been using. ”That’s the point of political question rather than a technological
scenarios – to prepare,” he stated. one. The central question is: How much are the
Danes willing to sacrifice to realize the green
transition?”
”The question is ’are
we preparing our next He developed this view further by pointing out
generation of leaders, that it is possible that the world will act, and
that will make the ’Green state’ scenario less
in both the public and financially inefficient. ”It might become profitable
private sectors, to make to work faster towards the DK2050 goals, since
brave decisions? Are we they can provide business opportunities that will
fuel the transition in Denmark as well as act as
providing them with the a global driving power making other economies
tools and the skills?” jump aboard. To me, this is about creating
Simon Giles, director global lead of Smart opportunities in all four corners of the scenario
Technology Strategy, Accenture cross. That’s why we use scenarios – to not put
all our eggs in one basket, but prepare ourselves
”But how to we handle the schism between the for multiple futures.”
lack of faith in our politicians, eg. in the EU, and
the necessity of making far-sighted political
decisions?”, asked Martin Krasnik. ”That’s exactly
why we need to not only focus on technology
but on social trends as well. I think that in 20
years, we will see a new generation of leaders
who have been raised with a completely different
attitude when it comes to volatility and change.
They have grown up with the climate changes
as part of their lives as well as an increased
financial insecurity. That’s why, when they have
matured politically, they will make decisions that
are more risky and brave,” said Simon Giles.
63
LAUNCHING FOUR NEW MAPS ”Today, Denmark is situated somewhere in the
OF DENMARK middle of the scenarios,” saud Ulf Boman. ”A
There is not just one road to a well-balanced lack of political action will move us towards the
Denmark. That was clear when Torben scenario ’Green compromises’, where the green
Bundgaard Vad, partner and president of transition is not being realized.”
DAMVAD, and Ulf Boman, future strategist at
Kairos Future, presented the four new future Martin Krasnik asked Torben Bundgaard Vad
scenarios for the green transition in Denmark. which scenario he would prefer to live in. ”That
Is it up to the state, local governments, citizens, depends on where in Denmark I’m living. If I’m
businesses or the bottom line to lead this living in a big city, I’d like to live in ’Green state’
transition, and which possibilities and dilemmas or ’Green networks’. If I live in a small city, I’d
is society facing because of it? probably rather live in ’Green guerilla’ or ’Green
compromises,” said Torben Bundgaard Vad. In
The two men presented the main points of other words, there is not one dream scenario
report ’Green growth in Denmark towards 2050’ that would be attractive all over Denmark.
and underlined that that the scenarios showcase However, the scenarios lay bare the possible
possible futures, and that we probably won’t see consequences of different choices – or lack
any one future scenario fully realized. thereof.
There is not just one possible future, said Torben Bundgaard Vad and Ulf Boman and stressed that the scenarios can
contribute to qualifying the debate, but in the end it all depends on political will power. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
POWER PLANNING THROUGH 100 percent renewable energy in Denmark.
TO 2050 This has since been backed up by political
”We need systems to be connected; electricity, initiatives to realize the plans.
heating and transportation systems,” said Brian
Vad Mathiesen, professor at Aalborg University, ”We have worked with power planning
during his talk about the visions for making in Denmark for 40 years,” said Brian Vad
energy use more efficient and catalysing green Mathiesen. ”We have isolated out homes
transition in Denmark. Brian Vad Mathiesen gradually, we have introduced district heating,
used the experiences from 40 years of energy and we have built a lot of windmills. That
planning in Denmark and pointed out a number actually means that we use the same amount
of initiatives needed to make energy use of energy today that we did in the beginning
more efficient and having realized the green of the 1970s. But we are not 100 percent
transition in 40 years’ time. His main conclusion dependent on oil, we depend on a mix of fuels,”
was: We have the technology, we need said the professor and continued: ”That being
political will to co-think our systems. Brian Vad said, there has also been a number failures:
Mathiesen has worked on this transition for 10 Many of the savings from homes and district
years, and along with his colleagues, he has heating systems, have been eaten up by the
demonstrated in 2006, 2009 and 2011 that it’s cars we drive, because oil consumption in the
both technically and politically realistic to have transport sector has kept increasing.”
There were smiles in the audience when Brian Vad Mathiesen noted that conflicts arise when there is a need to decide who
pays the bill. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
65
According to Brian Vad Mathiesen, Denmark ”We need to start looking
has historically gained from our balance of at how the different sectors
payments surplus. This is due, among other
things, to our energy export, and in the work together. We need to
past years it has not only been oil and gas, look at electricity, heating
those have actually decreased, but energy and transportation as
technology, comprising all the components
that make up these kinds of systems. ”What we one entity. That’s why we
can be proud of is that at the same time as we advocate putting huge heat
have done all this, we had seen a huge financial pumps in our district heating
growth. (…) The energy production in Denmark
had been growing for many years, but not it’s systems.”
decreasing. Now, we are starting to feel that the Brian Vad Mathiesen,
advantages of making this part of the budget professor, Aalborg University
and the collective economy are disappearing,”
the professor said. Alongside other scientists, Brian Vad Mathiesen
has looked at how to heat our homes in the
During his talk, Brian Vad Mathiesen, presented future. Are we going to keep the district heating
some ideas on how to handle this challenge in system, how does that fit into a carbon-neutral,
the future. 100 percent renewable energy system, and how
do we get there? The scientists saw a potential
Regarding the existing building mass, he conflict between those providing heat and those
described how Denmark has changed its building houses. How much to isolate, how
power system from being very centralistic to much to produce? Their analyses and estimates
a decentralized system. ”We have moved the showed how far it’s profitable to go when it
production of electricity, windmills and heat comes to home improvements regarding the
and power stations, into rural areas. We have climate with the energy supply in mind. ”There is
done this because we have discovered that a cost connected to heat supply, and you should
it is clever to produce heat and electricity in not move forward if the means could find better
the same place, so that we can heat up homes use somewhere else. The results of what we
where they are. That saves of a lot of fuel.” called ’Heat Plan Denmark’ were that we need
IToday we have more than 39 percent wind much more district heating than we have today.
power, and through to 2050, we must massively We must go from today’s roughly 60 percent of
increase this number. Danish homes to 80-85 percent, and the rest
must get individual heat pumps. If we do that, we
can reduce heat consumption by 50 percent.”
That was the professor’s perspective on finding A transition of the transport sector is possible,
a balance in transitioning the homes of today. ”If too, he says. ”It demands that we prioritize
we do this, our fuel consumption will decrease public and bicycle transportation. But there’s a
along with carbon emissions and costs, and we limit to what you can do with it, and when we
can create more jobs.” reach it, we need to have a lot of electric cars
ready. We need to make sure that we facilitate
Brian Vad Mathiesen and the other scientists the process so it becomes acceptable. But that
and, amongst others, SBI in the Zero Mission is actually possible.”
Building Center have also analysed new
buildings. ”As it turns out, we need to do more or
less the same thing: We have to be careful not
”When you gaze into the
to over-isolate homes with regard to the heat future, 70-80 percent of
supply we have, and we actually have to land the technologies that we
on the same heat consumption that homes we
renovate end up having today. This means that
need are actually already
for both existing homes and those of the future, there. But the remaining 20
we need to think about low-temperature district percent won’t just appear
heating.” Brian Vad Mathiesen and his colleagues
work on the low-temperature district heating of
out of nowhere. The whole
the future in Europe’s biggest research centre point of this work is that
for district heating, 4DH. nothing comes from nothing
– changes in well-known
”The challenge is which cheap technology neither.”
kinds of bio-fuels to put in Brian Vad Mathiesen,
our ships, trucks and planes. professor, Aalborg University
Our research suggests
What it all comes down to is connecting all
that we need to take some systems. This has been done in a big research
electrons from windmills and programme called CEESA. The essence of it
put them into the tanks of is, according to Brian Vad Mathiesen, that it’s
about power. ”The back bone of our energy
these vehicles. Otherwise system is electricity. And we need to prioritize
our bio-mass resources can’t electricity from windmills. We need land-based
cover our needs. It’s actually windmills, and we need to be able to integrate
these things. If we do that, we can actually have
a more mature technology more wind energy than the 39 percent, we can
than many bio-fuels.” get to 50 percent by 2020. It all depends on how
Brian Vad Mathiesen, ambitious we are, and whether it’s something we
professor, Aalborg University really want.”
67
A central aspect of this co-thinking is the ’smart Asked why politicians don’t hurry up and realize
energy systems’ that connect the systems (www. the transition of the energy system when it’s
smartenergysystems.eu). ”The smart energy cost-neutral, the professor said: ”You have to
system is not a meter in an individual household look at the economy you’re talking about. The
meaning that we do one load of laundry at night technology is here, and it’s cost-neutral. But
instead of during the day. That means nothing. when we add up the numbers on this, we don’t
If we introduce new kinds of consumerism such care if it’s owned by you, me, a municipality or
as electric cars and heat pumps, we need them the state. That’s where conflicts arise. Someone
to run at the right time, and this is where we tales the fall even if it’s cost-neutral.” This leads
need smart consumption. The art is connecting to the question of whether we need a stick or a
district heating with the electrical system with carrot to make the transition happen.
big heat pumps and using heat storage, and
then gradually make sure the transport system In the ’Green state’ scenario, it’s plausible that
runs on electricity. Electricity, heat and gas the state has the absolute power over where to
networks must be connected in order to use place land-windmills. According to Brian Vad
every storage option possible. And that’s what Mathiesen, this is a bad idea. There is a need
we call the smart energy system, as opposed to for stable frames, but the ideas and economy
the smart electricity system,” explains Brian Vad for them must be able to arise locally. ”The art
Mathiesen. is to find and develop the combination of state
initiatives and framework and opportunities
According to Brian Vad Mathiesen, a smart locally,” he said.
energy system is not more expensive than
the system we have today. The costs will vary, CHANGES IN CITY PATTERNS
depending on whether we make sure that the THROUGH TO 2050 – BOOM OR BUST
savings in our homes are realized when we Mark Lorenzen, professor at Copenhagen
renovate them, and whether we use all storage Business School, spoke about the maps drawn
possibilities in the smart energy system. ”It by DK2050 of the possible futures. They all
also depends on how ambitious we are when it paint a crooked picture, he said, and explained
comes to transportation. If we keep increasing how the migration of growth and development
road transportation, the connected system will towards cities is an international trend.
be more expensive. But in this future system,
which is based on 100 percent renewable
energy, you don’t drive a car as much as today.
It seems like there are more jobs in a renewable
energy system than in the fossil energy system
we know, and apart from that it has created a
lot of technology that can create more jobs in
export,” he said.
”There are lots of reasons According to the professor, there is still a
why the focus on activities, political room in Denmark to make decisions
that will keep connecting Denmark. ”Politics
people and economic still count for a lot, even if some of the mega
growth is growing bigger in trends that Kairos and DAMVAD introduced
the cities. It has to do with are completely out of Denmark’s reach
economically, environmentally, technologically
globalization, knowledge- and culturally. But there is room to connect
heavy educational Denmark and create a large degree of life
institutions, lots of quality in most cities. Much of the politics
needed are happening at a local and regional
networks, self-realization, level, not just nationally. Municipalities and
entrepreneurship and a regions have a great say when it comes to
number of offerings needing leading cities towards either boom or bust.”
a very large population. Big So, what can you do to get to boom or bust,
cities are increasingly the of you’re a big city, a small city or a medium-
winners.” Mark Lorenzen, professor, CBS sized city? The development in Denmark will,
according to Mark Lorenzen, still be led by
growth in Copenhagen, Aarhus and, to a lesser
There is a tendency to blame politicians for this extent, Odense and Aalborg. He thinks that
imbalance. However, Mark Lorenzen actually Copenhagen and the other big cities need to
stressed that political decisions have meant be watchful of the dangers of constipation,
that the imbalance in Denmark is much smaller meaning high prices, pollution, lack of services,
than it could have been. ”You could say that a public infrastructure and social offerings
if there hadn’t been a lot of initiatives such lacking behind the population growth and
as equalization agreements both regionally become a spoke in the wheel, turning growth
and locally, serious public investments in less qualitative and less green.
transportation, new motorways – even in places
where there wasn’t a large enough population
for it – the map of Denmark might be even
more crooked, and a lot of small cities would be
depopulated by now,” Mark Lorenzen said.
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”Right now we are very about attracting people and businesses
ignorant when it comes that will enjoy living in a small city with that
closeness, and maybe even an attraction, be
to small cities. If we it cultural or natural, and the authenticity only
make the investments in found in small towns. ”It’s not just the usual
transportation descibed story about event economy and tourism you
need to tell as a small city. You can actually
in ’Green state’, we a found a fringe-driven job development on
swallowing the bitter pill a fringe of high-quality settlement,” Mark
of saying that we can’t Lorenzen says.
afford those small towns ”Two of the DK2050

and communities and what scenarios, ’Green state’ and
happens out there. That’s ’Green compromises’, leave
not a desirable situation. (…) many of the small towns out
We are already getting close there naked, and then you
to it as a result of a lack in have to move to the big city,
collaboration.” or else you just take care.
Mark Lorenzen, professor, CBS
One is the result of a top-
Mark Lorensen shared his idea about what the down state action; we can’t
future will look like for Danish small cities: ”The
small town have seen an enormous negative
afford small cities. While the
growth in both jobs and settlement. There is no other one is a continuance
reason to believe that will change, no matter of what’s going on today to
which of the four scenarios – or a fifth or sixth
– for green transition we move towards. But
an even larger extent, but
small towns can still be developed in Denmark.” sped up by the magnetism of
the big cities. The result for
Because of their small economies, small cities
can create positive development based on
small cities will be the same.”
fringe jobs or fringe settlement. Particularly, if Mark Lorenzen, professor, CBS
it’s value-creating jobs or people with a high
income who work in eg. the service industry
or with knowledge production. It’s very much
innovative, flexible and willing to adapt. And
there is actually a possibility of attracting
highly educated workers, because much of the
depopulation of the smaller cities goes directly
to Copenhagen or other big cities. So there is a
challenge in creating cultural activities, lifestyle
activities in these medium-sized cities which
can attract and create a good job market.”
In order to make politics taking advantage of

the development and the opportunities that
present themselves, a collaboration between
politics and strategies on both city and regional
level is necessary. Cities and regions need to
specialize. ”All Danish cities don’t need to have
the same abilities. Not even the medium-sized
or small cities. They don’t need to have the
same business structure, the same professions,
they might not need to have the same public
supplies or public services. As a small town you
have find your niche, go for it, find some groups
and go for the, just like the medium-sized
cities,” the professor said.
There was a time for listening and a time for discussions
at the DK2050 conference. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
In order to find a niche and get specialized,
you need to make an agreement with your
Medium-sized cities can’t survive by surroundings. ”Danish cities must think of
committing to one niche: ”They are too big both the competition, which is healthy, and of
to only depend on one niche, they need a coordination,” said Mark Lorenzen. And that
’real’ business sector. They must have a real collaboration is not only for small and medium-
job market with the kind of labour market sized cities in the region, such as we have seen
economy characterizing a real city.” But they before. It’s an internal collaboration between
are too small to behave like big cities, said small towns in a region that allows them each
Mark Lorenzen. His idea of action in medium- to find their style and niche. According to the
sized cities was: ”You have to develop some professor, it will be a challenge for the medium-
specialized trade groups, supported by the sized cities to create a strong collaboration
local education system as well as by local across regions.
infrastructure and politics, but which are also
71
The collaboration needs to happen across fields ”There has been a large amount of waste in
and professional skills between the public and the politics concerning the crooked Denmark.
private spheres. ”When we talk about building There has been support for regional trades and
homes, business policies, culture policies, shipping that doesn’t exist anymore. Libraries
infrastructure, environment, social policies, traffic and culture houses have been built in cities that
policies, locally and regionally etc., it’s all part of everyone has moved away from. Motorways
the same package. We need a much higher level that no one uses have been built. A lot of
of ambition and collaboration to move towards politicians try to stem the tide of an economic
a boom in 2050. Looking at the people gathered or technological development instead of taking
here, you are all proof that there is a will and an advantage of it, use it or collaborate with it. And,
ambition to work together across geographic, naturally, that’s what we need to do.”
professional and political borders. I think that’s
a beautiful start towards giving as many Danish
cities as possible a boom through to 2050,” Mark
Lorenzen said. And he continued:
THERE IS NO UMBILICAL CORD Katherine Richardson painted a clear picture.
With her background as head of the ”Before the industrial revolution, the demand for
government’s climate commission and part resources was so modest, that we could pretend
of the expert panel of DK2050, Katherine they were limitless, and we did. And we still do
Richardson was able to shed international light today. But the earth has no umbilical cord. And
on DK2050. when there is no umbilical cord, it means that
the resources are limited.”
”The future comes all by itself,” the professor
said and continued: ”But the future that we The positive thing about this statement
actually want our kids to have in 2050 does not being more and more widely recognized is,
– unless we start thinking differently.” It’s not just according to Katherine Richardson, that ”the
about climate and the environment, she stated: environment can no longer be seen as contrary
”The climate is only a proxy for a much bigger to economic interests. And a future development
challenge.” of our society can only happen with a more
efficient use of our resources and/or through a
With the help of graphics which all showed developing of alternatives for the resources that
that man’s use of the earth’s resources has are under pressure.”
accelerated immensely over the past 100 years,
The three professors Brian Vad Mathiesen, Katherine Richardson and Mark Lorenzen all had lots of input for the debate on
the challenges of a green transition.
73
”Our forefathers got it. We ”How do we handle the discord between growth
have to acknowledge that and green transition?” someone in the audience
wanted to know. ”There will be a new kind of
our real currency is our growth which is not founded on resources,”
resources.” Mark Lorenzen answered, and Katherine
Katherine Richardson, professor, Richardson said: ”God knows we need growth.
the University of Copenhagen But on different terms.”
Katherine Richardson concluded her talk by After that, the debate was about the dilemma
stressing that there are many roads to DK2050. of mining coal, financing the welfare state – and
”There is no right way of getting there. Many who it affects. Katherine Richardson answered
roads lead us to DK2050, but the general the question of how we can make sure that we
conditions for the development of society don’t mine all of the coal, like this: ”We could
are changing. Accepting this is an important start by taking away the 600 billion kroner we
premise for making decisions that reach into give to extract fossil fuels.” Brian Vad Mathiesen
the future.” then said: ”But then we need to find taxes
somewhere else in order to finance our welfare.”
Growth on different terms
During the ensuing debate between the three There was more than one answer to the question
scientists, moderated by Martin Krasnik, he of whom the transition will affect. Mark Lorenzen
asked: ”Is this project not meant to advice sees a risk that commuters will be affected. ”It
concrete actions to be taken politically?” The will affect those who commute. There are big
scientists said that they strongly felt that the geographical challenges there. Lots of areas in
strength of the project lies in its ability to Denmark are surviving on grants. They will have
map out a number of possibilities and create to grin and bear it for a while when transitioning.”
ownership; it’s not to point out actual actions. It can prove hard for smaller businesses too,
Mark Lorenzen said: ”At the end of the day, we Brian Vad Mathiesen said. ”Small businesses that
need political decisions, not technocratic ones.” haven’t transitioned will have a hard time. The
According to Brian Vad Mathiesen, though, businesses that will provide for us in the future –
it’s important that climate solutions not only it’s not for certain that they exist yet.”
come from above: ”If you look at the general
international political agreements, they are Martin Krasnik ended the debate by asking
lacking enormously behind what goes on locally if it’s realistic to think that Denmark will have
in Denmark. So it’s also about seeing what it completed the green transition by 2050. ”Yes, it
makes sense to take to that level. You have to is,” said Brian Vad Mathiesen. ”This stop and go
be careful not to think that climate solutions policy is destroying Danish businesses.”
only come from above. The politicians will soon
realize this. We have to develop the markets, it ”In the end, it’s a political question,” said Mark
doesn’t happen by itself.” Lorenzen.
ACTION NOW ”I would make a green
The final debate was about who is in charge transition office with the
of realizing the green transition, how much the
government needs to control, how to involve best people from the central
the citizens, and on the connection between administration who have
growth and green transition. Martin Krasnik experience in this field,
moderated the discussion between:
the best from the research
• Steen Gade, spokesman for energy and community along with the
climate as well as business and growth, SF best from the business
• Katherine Richardson, professor at the
University of Copenhagen industry.”
• Peter Rathje, CEO of ProjectZero in Steen Gade, spokesman for energy and
Sønderborg climate as well as business and growth, SF
• Michel van der Linden, head of
engineering and development in the An activismapproach was presented by Uffe
municipality of Kalundborg Elbæk, MP and leader of the Alternativet Party.
• Peder Baltzer Nielsen, city architect He called for action here and now: ”There is a
in Aalborg lack in action compared to all the words, fancy
• Uffe Elbæk, MP and leader of Alternativet reports and good conferences. There is a lack
of activism on a grassroots, city, regional and
The debaters discussed the central question of national level. It can seem simplified to say this.
whether it’s possible to make Denmark free of But even highprofile researchers from NASA
fossil fuels by 2050. say that we need to become activists – I need
to step out of my regular role to actually make
Activism or top-down management? a difference. But then again – it’s not that black
Steen Gade began by stating that it’s essential and white.”
that the green transition is at the heart of the
political and financial decision-making process, Uffe Elbæk elaborated by describing how he
it’s not an appendix. The way to do this, feels that Christiansborg, himself included,
according to Steen Gade, is to create a green needs to find the guts to imagine a completely
transition office within the Prime Minister’s different future: ”A green transition needs
Department so that the green transition is political leadership. Someone has to facilitate the
governed from the top of Danish politics. dialogue we need to have on all levels. There are
chunks of a solution on all levels – in civil society,
Steen Gade made the argument that in some on city level, regionally, nationally and so forth,
areas we already know what needs to happen: but we need someone to put it on the agenda
”So it’s about making sure that it does happen, and take leadership for it. With the way we have
to place an obligation to do it upon Denmark. put together our society, it is necessary that a
We also need to get moving on a broader green prime minister goes out there and says ’this is
transition, eg. the circular economy. We are only the biggest challenge, let’s talk about it’.”
just getting started there.”
75
Katherine Richardson, professor at the University shape. CEO Peter Rathje explained how it’s all
of Copenhagen, also made a plea for visionary about daring to do the right thing and getting
and brave politicians: ”The first thing we need to the right people on board: ”Today, we have the
do is make Danish politicians read up on Danish support of the politicians for our plan of being
history. Once upon a time, there were some very carbon-neutral by 2029. But the decision was
visionary politicians who made some decisions actually made sooner without involving the
that were more expensive in the short run. They political system, because there were strong
wanted to get oil out of our energy system. forces in both the private and public sectors
It was expensive, but they set the bar high, who wanted it. We agreed that it would be cool if
which means that today, more than 10 percent Sønderborg could both contribute to saving the
of Denmark’s export portfolio lies in energy- world and create a vast amount of jobs locally.
efficiency technology and renewable energy,” It comes at a cost in the short run. But it was
Katherine Richardson said. about proving that it pays to prioritize the green
transition even more. And to dare being wild.
The good examples
With its ProjectZero and ambition to be carbon- Peter Rathje spoke about the attention from
neutral by 2029, Sønderborg is a kind of pioneer abroad on how to make the green transition
municipality for the national ambitions. For a reality. Kalundborg has some experience
ProjectZero, the politicians weren’t first in line with this. The city’s head of engineering and
when the ambitions for a CO2-neutral city took development, Michel van der Linden pointed
The debators and participants spanned over a broad array of subjects when talking about how to achieve the green
transition. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
to ’The Green Symbiosis’ as an example of how The same thing happened when the scenarios
growth and green transition can go hand in were up for debate locally and during the People
hand: ”We do have some practical experience Meeting, where they encouraged responses and
of businesses working in a global market a sharing of visions for Denmark’s future. It’s also
having gone through this transition. So that’s about what it will be like to live in Denmark by
really good. What we need now is far-sighted 2050. It’s a question that DK2050 has addressed
energypolitical discussion,” said Michel van too by making Stig L. Andersson’s exhibition
der Linden. ’The Power of Aesthetics’ a part of the project,
and it came up once again during the debate at
”There is a business in the conference.
Kalundborg which produces

enough heat to feed more ”What kinds of lives are we
than 100,000 homes. But going to live? What kinds of
it gets pumped into the air urban spaces will we have?
instead. That is hopelessly Is there traffic noise? Does it
strange at a time where we smell differently? Will we live
talk about recycling and longer if we achieve these
realizing a green transition. goals? How do we connect
There is a need to us to the energy and CO2 agenda
change the structure of to the health aspects and
incitement.” to quality and lots of other
Michel van der Linden, head of engineering
and development, Kalundborg things? I mean, facilitating
the vision in another way
A strong state and public anchoring as politicians. I long for
According to the scenarios, only a strong state
and strong international collaborations can someone to drop that line,
secure the goal of a 100 percent green transition so it’s not just architects and
to create solutions together. It’s a scenario
that has led to some debate in Aalborg among
advisers putting into words
citizens, politicians and businesses. and emotions how it tastes
and smells.”
Signe Kongebro,
Henning Larsen Architects
77
Steen Gade sees the debate and anchoring as thing is to see what we can do at a national
essential for greater government decisions. ”I level, like ’Green state’, at a local level, like
think we need to invite a lot more people to ’Green compromises’, at an individual level,
take part in this. Because if we know where we like ’Green networks’, and actually at an
want to be by 2050, it will be much easier to international level too in Paris. Rambøll works
get people to participate, businesses as well in Norway where the government has decided
as citizens. And then we can make some hard that all growth in the transport sector must
political decisions, but by then they will be come from public transportation, walking and
well-anchored in society. That doesn’t mean biking. And that all settlement must happen
that everyone will be happy and agree, but from within and from stations where there
it means they will be anchored. I believe that is a need for densification. Those kinds of
a strong government can work alongside a declarations can really change the climate
strong democracy – I actually think that’s what agenda. What kinds of things do we wish to be
we have in this country when we’re at our best,” normal for the development in Denmark?”
Steen Gade explained.
It’s necessary that a lot of players lead the way
Martin Krasnik asked Peter Rathje if that kind in order to realize the green transition. That was
of anchoring has happened in Sønderborg. made very clear during the debate. We need to
work on different sides of this, said Peter Rathje,
”No, it’s not the same thing, but I agree that based on his experiences in Sønderborg. ”We
a strong government is an ideal. But we have solve this problem: We need scientists, engineers
learned that we also have to get guerilla and techicians, and while we work on that, we
movements going – that’s how we see need to work with businesses and citizens.
Sønderborg, actually. While we’re waiting to find The municipalities need to do everything they
the suggestions nationally, let’s put a date on can when it comes to energy and optimization,
it, along with the other cities that have started because it’s all about local players making new
this process. Because we have the dates here connections. We need real estate agents and the
in Denmark, but they don’t have them abroad banks to talk about this in order for it to happen.
yet,” Peter Rathje said. And we don’t need to wait for the other side of
the project. We just have to make sure they meet
Kasper Bach from Rambøll said: ”It will be – and not too far into the future. In Sønderborg
interesting to see what happens after today. it has to be by 2029, that’s our goal. For the
I feel that one thing we have learned from transport too.”
the scenarios is that we can and must do
something at every level. I don’t think the
scenarios are mutually exclusive. The important
The population must ”I’m old enough to have
maintain pressure
A central challenge for the green transition
realized that if not at least
is that it’s not on the primary agenda of the half of the Indians take part
population. That’s why it often loses the battle in the war, it won’t happen.
for politicians’ attention to the creation of jobs
or welfare. This was a clear dilemma throughout
You can’t have an either/or
all the debates, and several speakers situation. Both population
mentioned it. Kasper Benjamin Reimer Hansen and politicians need to get
from WE architecture asked the panel if it isn’t
up to the politicians to anchor this discussion
moving. It’s not top-down or
with the population in order to create a better bottom-up.”
knowledge of it: ”We have talked about the fact Katherine Richardson, professor,
that in the 70’s, politicians made all of these the University of Copenhagen
long-term plans. What happened was actually
that we went out and took down every other In Sønderborg, the realization is that knowledge
street lamp, so it was obvious that there was comes while the green transition is happening,
an oil crisis. That made the Danes go home and that a green transition can actually lead to
and say ’okay, we need to save’. But isn’t it true more jobs. ”The first step is to make it clear to
that today we lack that plan for getting from both politicians and population that a reduction
talking about this at conferences to creating of carbon emissions can actually lead to more
an awareness among citizens that we really do jobs,” said Peter Rathje. He went on: ”After
need to act? Once we get citizens to act, the seven years of ProjectZero, we have realized
right political decisions get made. Isn’t it up to a 25 percent reduction of CO2 emissions, and
the politicians to introduce this at a public level have on average created 800 new jobs. They
– to make room for the guerilla movements that are not here to stay. Someday, all the houses
actually make it visible?” will be isolated, and the district heating system
extended. So it’s not a long-term solution, but
Uffe Elbæk answered: ”There aren’t any easy we do see a clear connection here.” He made
answers, but what I miss is a new kind of the point that you have to start by creating
political leadership. When you look at the Danish a feeling of faith in the project locally and
parliament and on the current government nationally – and then get it done. ”When we
too, the green agenda is only pulled in the last see that it starts to work in Denmark, other
minute before an election. The nature plan, the countries will say ’holy moly, they are grooving
discussion about biodiversity – they’ve only just again’ – because we are actually losing ground
been introduced. It’s like there’s a fear of the at the moment. Only then you can say that the
voters.” industrial wheels have started turning, because
then we’ll be part of a development happening
in China, Africa and Poland too – all faced with
the same development as we are.”
79
Martin Krasnik asked the panel: ”But how do you That’s what we try to do. And I can see that
create awareness in citizens and organizations it’s starting to work. That we don’t have to say
when every second or third year you hear ’this is what your economy looks like, and this
politicians saying ’it’s now or never. If we don’t is what your CSR looks like’, because that’s how
make a decision now or at COP15, we can’t make we think in Sønderborg.”
in a couple of years, it will be too late’? And then
the same thing happens in Mexico a few years Growth and green transition
later, and then again now. You can’t take that Is there a disparity between growth and
seriously.” green transition, one audience member at the
conference wanted to ask the panel. ”No, I feel
”It’s true that we have known this for a long time. like the latest climate report from the UN and
The problem is that it’s happening too slowly, now DK2050 show that it’s not the case, but a
and we haven’t gotten people on board. I have question of ’what do we do – and how?” said
just handed in an enlightenment appropriation Aalborg city architect Peder Baltzer Nielsen.
where people and organizations can apply to
initiate debates about our energy future through
to 2050. (…) We need to do what we did in the
”It means that we have to
70s and 80s where we created a secretariat start imagining what kind of
and involved the entire Danish population in the economy comes after the
transition. That made it possible for us to create
a political transition. It’s actually built on pretty
kind of capitalism we know
strong decisions, eg. an obligatory hook-up to today. If you’re a socialist,
district heating,” Steen Gade said. you’re going to say ’that’s
The CEO of ProjectZero argued that it should
socialism’. Liberal Alliance
also be okay to start with a motivation that will say you need more
makes it worth someone’s while – individually market for that. I don’t know
too. ”It can start by a feeling that it’s actually
profitable for each citizen and business and
what kind of economy is
then end with a feeling of responsibility,” said coming. But something will
Peter Rathje and continued: ”We see the same come. Because we can’t
thing happening in the business world. (…)
I also think it makes a difference that we’re
use more resources than
not all over the country, the EU or the world, the earth is capable of
but can say that this is what we are working regenerating. That’s that.”
on here, in this village, town or municipality. Uffe Elbæk, MP and leader of Alternativet
Steen Gade stressed that ”it can mean ”Perhaps we ought to start
economic growth to behave more sensibly, to
recycle, to put up windmills instead of heating
a discussion about power
up houses with coal. The green transition stations in Copenhagen.
means making sure that the growth we have is Maybe they should be
not founded on overexploitation of resources. A
growth that is based on circular economy and
turned into culture centres
recycling. And we’re only just getting started, or residential homes? In
energy-wise at first, and then tentatively any case, we need to stop
resource-wise. But that’s the project that
makes up the wheels that will turn for the next
heating the country with
20 years.”Uffe Elbæk talked about new types of those two gorgeous, big
growth and said: ”Obviously, there is a parallel buildings. That could be the
between material growth and quality of life.
Naturally, we all want to live in better houses and
key story we need.”
have a bathroom down the hall instead of down Steen Gade, spokesman for energy and
in the courtyard. But it’s interesting to see the climate as well as business and growth, SF
graphs for growth and quality of life respectively.
They have behaved similarly up until the 70s. Where do we take action?
The life quality graph levels out in the 1970s and Participants pointed out several places where
has stayed at that same level ever since. The there is room for action. Some focused on
graph for material growth, however, has been on certain industries, like energy and windmills,
a constant rise. So we don’t become more happy while other took a broader approach. Several
by spending more money.” participants talked about better frame
conditions and fewer regulations as low-
Katherine Richardson made the argument that hanging fruit for a green transition. Kasper
it also has something to say that politicians Benjamin Reimer Hansen from WE architecture
tend to focus on business cases. ”It’s more had a suggestion: ”Eg. by modifying the
interesting when it’s not a business case, regulations that we have today. Local plans
because it means we have made the economic where you could say: ’There is a larger freedom
framework in a wrong way,” she said. here to change the front to make it more
climate friendly. Get green fronts or start
Peder Baltzer Nielsen: ”It’s really important that growing vegetables on roads that aren’t that
we, as municipalities, facilitate the local debate busy. Isn’t it possible to think like that instead
on liveability, a good urban room, and how to of from the top down?”
turn the city green. I actually think we have
every possibility of doing just that – and we can
become even better at it – in respect of the
national decisions being made.”
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”When it comes to transport, important theme in the discussion too – when
we still need to make some you’re discussing the local plans, it’s a never-
ending issue. We take it up every month, if not
decisions. That’s clear. But more often.”
when it comes to energy,
our main challenge is to Per Toppenberg from the North Denmark
Region who was involved when the district heat
store it, to connect the system was growing, made the argument that
different systems, make quick parliamentary decisions are necessary
more connections abroad, when you need to move fast: ”You need to
understand the challenges to do what the
so that we can buy and sell, parliament did during the oil crisis when they
and make the incitement introduced the obligatory hook-up to district
structure work so that this heating in order to secure a quick and socio-
economic extension with natural gas and
actually happens. It’s a huge district heating. That’s one of the main reasons
transition project necessary for the successful and quick transition in
in all countries within the Denmark. To move fast and secure the even
bigger investments it takes to achieve the
next 20-30 years, and Energy 2050 goals, the good experiences from
Denmark can become a hub the first heat plan need to be used.”
for it, if we understand
”It’s much more interesting to talk about how
that this is what we can give we get a more strategic energy planning,” said
the world.” Michel van der Linden and went on: ”Kalundborg
Steen Gade, spokesman for energy and is keen on making sure that we actually have
climate as well as business and growth, SF energy security, because that’s a large part of
the problem. Maybe there isn’t energy security,
Everyone agreed that not one DK2050 and businesses have no idea how to establish or
scenario will be a reality by 2050. Peter Baltzer invest. We actually think that the municipalities
Nielsen said: ”Realistically speaking, it will be a have quite a clever angle which is spotting the
combination of these scenarios. Locally, I think connection between different types of energy.
it’s definitely worth making room for some of How do we create these connections, so that the
the things shown in ’Green guerilla’. We already surplus created in one place can be used by the
see this happening in several cities. That’s an deficit in another?”
We need action now ”Personally, I believe in it.
We are on the right track, but it’s not going And that’s simply because
fast enough, said the panel. We need to act
now. Not just for the climate, but for growth there is a lot of push here,
too, said Katherine Richardson: ”Others are and we are standing on a
running really fast at the moment. China is platform demanding that it
paying Denmark to help making a plan for the
possibility of introducing renewable energy. In happens.”
Denmark, we have start-ups with clients in both Michel van der Linden, head of engineering
China and Japan, but if we don’t keep pushing, and development, Kalundborg
we will fall behind. We have an edge, but if we
let go, I can guarantee that someone will take Uffe Elbæk made the argument that with
over.” she warned. history in mind – from the Soviet Union to the
Arab spring – we must believe that we can
Martin Krasnik asked: ”Do you believe that make quick changes, if the population backs
Denmark will be free of fossil fuels by 2050?” them. He said: ”This is not up to just the prime
and the answer from the panel was that they minister, it’s not just up to the people gathered
all hope and believe, but they don’t know. They here, we need people to start talking to each
agreed that it takes power and will to secure other and say ’oh, but couldn’t it be different?’
that we keep moving in the right direction. That’s why DK2050 is interesting; it shows us
Peder Baltzer Nielsen gave an example of how scenarios so that we can imagine something
tiny elements can delay an entire process: ”The different. So when you say ’can it happen?’, I
windmills are being still now – all of Denmark say ’goddammit, yes, it can happen!’ It depends
is waiting for a statement from the minister of on what each one of us does. Someone like
health. A statement that it costs one million you, Martin Krasnik. What kinds of questions
kroner to make – and we get it in 2017. Why not you ask us on TV, what stories make it into the
throw 10 or 15 million into this project so that papers, what happens in the council halls, what
we can get these 16 megawatt windmills going, happens in our parties. It depends on you!”
like everyone agrees we should?”
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SIMON GILES – GLOBAL CHALLENGES Firstly thank you for having me here today. It’s
FOR CITIES TOWARDS 2050 always a pleasure to be back in Copenhagen.
Simon Giles, director global lead for Smart It seems I’m here every month or two. And it’s
Technology Strategy, Accenture, spoke at nice to be here at the end of the summer, and
the DK2050 conference. His most important I can tell it’s the end of the summer because
message to Denmark and the Danish cities was it’s not 3 degrees and raining it’s 10 degrees
that they need to prepare for more than one and raining. But in a month it’ll just go back
future. This is his full presentation. to 3 degrees and raining and it’ll be beautiful
Copenhagen again.
So, I was asked to come and give an

international perspective on the futures relating
to Danish cities after 2050. But what I would
really like to do is four things.
Firstly back cast; give a little bit of perspective

of what it means between now and 2050. If
we look back to 1980, which is the equivalent
of now to 2050, what did we, and what didn’t
we know in 1980 and how would that actually
relate to how life is now.
The second thing I want to do is forecast;

what are the few things that we know with
some certainty will happen over the coming
years, and what are the things that we know
without any real certainty but could be hugely
disruptive – and if they were to come about
would be complete game changers that we
would need to react to.
Simon Giles urged Denmark and Danish cities to prepare
for more than just one future. A projet such as DK2050
can help you keep an eye on signs of which way it’s going, Then I’d like to look at that within the context
he said. Photo: Lars Engelgaard of ”so what” – all right, so what does that mean
for Danish cities going forwards.
Finally I’d like to talk a little bit about; so what

do you need to do in the next few years as
cities to position yourself as effectively as
possible to be successful in this world. I know
that Nasim Talib, the author, talks about
anti-fragility: The idea that actually people When people went to work in the 1980’s they
can benefit from uncertainty by developing worked on electric type writers. Imagine casting
strategies that adapt – that naturally adapts yourself forward; I remember when I started
to uncertainty. And that can be a strategic and working, we were still printing out acetates
competitive benefit. to present, so I wouldn’t have presented like
this, I would have printed out an acetate and
”I think there’s absolutely would have had an overhead projector. And
that is only 15 years ago. Ok, so, I would have
that opportunity in the coloring in my acetates. But more importantly
context of Denmark to take in 1989 the Berlin wall came down. That’s only
a leading position.” 25 years ago, so if we project that forwards
that’s only 2040. Now before 1989, in those 10
And I think there’s absolutely that opportunity years preceding that we were in the world of
in the context of Denmark to take a leading the cold war. You know, half of the world was
position. And the reason I’m so confident about still under communist rule and yet if we project
that is that if I look back to the 1960’s, 70’s ourselves forward to 2050 can we say with any
and 80’s, the investments that Denmark made certainty that the European Union will exist
in green technologies were miles ahead of in the current form it’s in. I don’t even know
the curve internationally and it is only for that whether in the next year the UK will leave the
reason that you’re in the position you are now EU. There’s probably a quite good probability,
in relation to the green economy compared right. And that can have huge implications in
to everyone else in the world. That forward terms of the balance of power that’s happening
thinking mentality has already happened in the around the world. So all I’m saying is, the one
context of Denmark – and has positioned the thing we know when we project ourselves
country and the cities to take advantage of the forward to 2050 is that we know very little, and
next wave of green growth. But you mustn’t be we have to take that into account when we
complaisant because there’s still a lot that can project forward.
be done to push forward and move to the next
level. So let me move forward. ”Things will move faster and
So, in 1980 this is what a mobile phone looks things will be less certain,
like. Now, I would love to have brought a live and we need to able to react
size replica of a person, but I’m guessing that
it’s bigger than a head. And the implication
to that. And that has huge
of that is; who then would have thought that implications for the way we
not only we have IPhones now, but we have design things and the way
peripheral devices that connects to IPhones
that measure our heart rate or our blood
we design our cities.”
pressure or our blood glucose levels. It is nuts, Ok, so, if we cast forward, from now to 2050
you would never have thought that in 1980.
85
there are some things that we can predict with helping and adapt to these two events, which
some confidence. The United Nations climate again I’ll come back to. Forms of production will
change panel is very clear that the climate change fundamentally and we already know
science suggest that weather patterns will get that because we already seen now in things like
more volatile. And that means more droughts, 3D-printing, we’re right at the bottom end of
more rain, more extreme weather events. And maturity of the curve of 3D-printing right now.
that’s not just in Europe, that’s globally. And the Over the next 10 years we’re going to see a
implications of that it has increased volatility, complete quantum shift in the way that products
and if nothing else in this presentation, the most are produced and delivered. That will change
important thing to take away is, the next 25 to supply change in the cities fundamentally. Our
30 years will be all about more volatility. Things cities are configured for industrial production
will move faster and things will be less certain, and industrial scale. So we created production
and we need to able to react to that. And that facilities close to logistics to be able to do
has huge implications for the way we design very large scale production. Over the next 25
things and the way we design our cities. I’ll come years we will see increased personalization in
back to that and its implications in a second. production and production will move closer
to the center of the city. That’s going to have
”Over the next 10 years we’re massive implications on the way we design
supply chains, logistics, delivery capabilities and
going to see a complete centers of production. And we can anticipate
quantum shift in the way that now, we don’t have to wait, ‘cause we’ve got
that products are produced a fair look of what that’s going to look like.
and delivered.” Geopolitically the one thing we can predict

is that the emerging markets, especially the
The second thing is; resource scarcity will eastern economies are going to continue to
continue to increase. We are not getting any rise. And we know that pretty much for certain
more land, water resources are depleting and and the implication is that global trade routes
we’re producing more waste. Under all these are going to shift significantly over the next 25
scenarios resource constraints will continue to years. And we’ve already seen that if you just
bite, they will bite more in some regions than look at the import-export patterns of Denmark
others – Denmark is relatively lucky compared for the last 15 years, you can see that we’re
to Bangladesh or the South Sea Islands. Right, no longer exporting product at the same level
the impact of climate change and resource as we were then. We are a net importer that
scarcity in those economies will be absolutely will probably continue to increase, but also
game changing. And that is horrendous for them, will continue to export products and services
but a huge opportunity for those companies and I’ll come back to that, because it’s service
and those governments that want to support export that is going to critical to the success.
an economy that is going to be focused on
”But then there are some were need to have more intelligence into the
network systems and we’re able to deal with
things that we don’t know, diurnal storage in a much more effective way
and what we don’t know without only having hydro as the back-up. So the
could really hurt us because combination between hydrogen and increased
battery storage technology reducing marginal
these types of technologies cost of battery storage will have potentially
may or may not emerge over a game changing effect on the way that we
the coming 25 years.” construct our energy systems – and not only
that; the products that we’re delivering on a
But if they do emerge they will fundamentally basis of electrification.
change the world in the same way that the
mobile phone, the computer, machine to Driverless cars will have a massive potential
machine, ubiquitous connectivity od devices are impact id they take off at the scale that we all
changing the world now. So what are some of think or hope that they will do. The way that
those things? Hydrogen: It’s been around as an our transport systems will be configured, the
idea within the green economy for ages, but it intermodality of transportation will completely
has never quite gotten to the point where it has change as a result of the introduction of
taken off. But interestingly everyone had written these cars. It’s not just an infrastructural and
of hydrogen up until five years ago, or from the technological change that’s going to occur;
last five years, but now there seems to be a it will have huge social implications. I was
renaissance. I think the jury is out as to whether dropped off by a taxi driver this morning – it’s
hydrogen is ever going come of age as a storage not a good world for taxi drivers when you’ve
and production mean/mode. But if it does, and got driverless cars. Now, in the context of a
it does scale, it will fundamentally change the city like London, that is upwards of 60.000
way we transport and manage energy around people that are employed in a sector. That will
the networks and especially around storage of have the same kind of disruptive effect on a
energy. And storage is a critical factor because city like London as personal computers and
we already seen battery technology change mobile phones had in terms of changing modes
very rapidly – companies like A123 in the USA of production and the internet has had on the
making huge strides in terms of battery storage printing business. If you were a printer in the
both in terms of the actual capacity and, but early 1980’s, it was a great profession to be
also in terms of the speed of development of in – not so good now. If you’re a taxi driver now
the technology we’re seeing and how they are and driverless cars emerge – not such a good
applied. So if we can get to a position where place to be. What are we going to do about
the marginal cost of the energy storage is low those 60.000 people in London who don’t have
enough then distributed renewables become the training and capability to easily move jobs?
a reality. And distributed renewables in the That has huge social implications.
system as it is currently configured means that
87
Synthetic biology – as a technology, synthetic different to what we can do now. And the level
biology, and the next one that I’m going to of processing power and capability it would
speak to, are quite a long way out there. But introduce would enable us to do some of the
some of the developments we’re seeing in things that I will talk about in a second. Again,
synthetic biology – for those of you who don’t there’s huge uncertainty. But the level of social
know what synthetic biology is; synthetic and economic disruption this will cause is huge.
biology is splicing DNA from different
organisms to create new organisms. Now those So given all this uncertainty, so what, what are
new organisms can do all sorts of things. But qualities that will be premium for Danish cities
within a context of the architectural world, it in both Danish markets, but also internationally.
can develop biological construction techniques What is it that will set Danish cities apart in
– biological façade designs for example. But the same way that the introduction of green
not only that in the context of the energy technologies and green infrastructures made
system, synthetic biology will allow you to Danish cities stand apart in the green debate?
create microorganisms that take us to the third
of fourth level of bioethanol creation. And will
put us in a position where were much more
”Being able to adapt to
effective in the digestion of cellular for example change will be the difference
– and the translation of cellular into ethanol. between whether you
Again, that has huge implications on our energy
systems; the cost of delivery of energy and
succeed or fail as a city
the way that we store and manage energy. in terms of delivering the
But synthetic energy can be applied across expectations of citizens, in
the board: Protein production, building façade
design, organic design. There are already
terms of life style, in terms
people in the visa institute in Harvard who are of job creation, in terms of
full time researchers into the application of economic growth.”
synthetic biology to architecture.
The most important capability to develop as a
Quantum computing: again is one of those city over the next 15 to 25 years is agility. Being
technologies that have been talked about able to adapt to change will be the difference
for a while, but is on the cusp of achieving between whether you succeed or fail as a city in
scale. This is something that is maybe 10, 15, terms of delivering the expectations of citizens,
20 years out yet, but it will have the same in terms of life style, in terms of job creation, in
type of disruption that the introduction of terms of economic growth. The reason Detroit
the microprocessor had in the 1980’s to is where it is today is because it wasn’t an agile
the computing industry. What we can do to city. It wasn’t able to adapt to the change that
computing in a quantum world is fundamentally was staring it in the face over 20-30 years.
Now, don’t get me wrong: I work with the public for success, but we have to continue to invest
sector every day of my life, and it is not easy in the development of design capability
to get politicians to be agile. There’s inherent – the market of design capability and the
conservatism in the process. And whenever application of design capability, globally.
you’re dealing with infrastructure, it’s difficult Because when people look to Denmark from
to create large infrastructure projects that are China, from South America, they’re going in
fundamentally agile. position, what they see, is design, and design
capability. And we need to build on that cause
”But there are things that we build on strong foundations. Partner with
design is innovation. DTU, the University in
you can do in the design Aarhus are great centers of new intellectual
of cities and the design of property creation, but most importantly;
infrastructure that allows applied innovation. Yes, blue sky innovation
is important, it’s very expensive and it’s being
for more agility and more done very well in other economies. I think if
flexibility in the way we you partner together design capability with
design our economic intellectual property creation, the area where
Denmark can really stand aside, is in applied
systems and our social research. How do I take research and apply
systems. Design capability is it in the context of good design and good
one of the key competitive delivery. So thinking about; what are the
institutions, what are capabilities and the skills
factors that Denmark brings that I need to do applied research as opposed
to the table – full stop.” to fundamental research. I’m not saying what
we should not do fundamental research, but in
The heritage of good design going back to terms of the balance of investment, I think it’s
the 1950’s and before, all the way through to more important to focus on the applications
now and going in to the future is what sets of the technology and the commercialization
apart the knowledge economy of Denmark of the technology. Which get me on to
from anywhere else. And if we’re going to entrepreneurs.
deliver green growth over the coming 25
years, the most important thing is to decouple
economic growth from energy consumption.
”Entrepreneurs – the
And that means transitioning the economy to development and fostering
a services based economy and an IP based of small or medium size
economy – an intellectually property based
economy. At the moment Denmark is perfectly
businesses will be the
positioned to do that and have a spring ball engine of growth over the
next 25 years.”
89
Yes, the large corporations will continue to be in an axis and they relate and interrelate with
important and they’ll continue to be engines each other. And unless we understand how
of growths in the economy, but if we want to they relate to each other, it’s really difficult
do job creation, the vast majority of the jobs in to make interventions that make those
the economy come from small or medium size systems more effective. Which then brings
businesses, and we need entrepreneurs to go me back to data – because the only way to
and take the applied research that is happening really understand it is to get some insight,
and coming out of the universities and start and the only way you can get insight to the
thinking about commercialization. How do I interrelationships, is to measure it empirically
make money from this, how do I deliver new and to collect data and to analyze data and
products and services that make life better, then derive insight from that data. But in order
cheaper and faster in our cities, but also that to do that you need people who understand
we can export around the world. So we need to how to manage complexity. The countries and
be friendly to entrepreneurs. the cities and the companies what learn to
harness complexity, will be next Facebooks and
Data will be the commodity. It won’t be a luxury; the next Googles of the world.
it will be an absolute commodity. But without
this commodity we won’t be able to function So what are the specific actions that – whoever
anywhere near as effectively as an economy as you are as city leaders – can go away tomorrow
we would like. And that is true across the board. and start making active decisions to move
So we need to make sure that we are able to forward? So the first is; develop and execute
deal with data and I’ll come in to talk a bit more resilience in integrated resource management
about that in a second, because I think that plans. Coming back to that point about
are a few things that can be specifically done increasing volatility of weather systems and
to make the current urban form more effective resource scarcity, it is imperative that cities
in the creation of data, the collection of data, over the next 2-3 year are just dealing with
the management of data and the application of questions mitigation of climate change, but are
data. And there’s a role for cities in doing that. managing for adaptation.
And then finally; complexity: the world is

getting more complex and it will continue
”So you need to be prepared.
getting more complex. And we need to You need to start planning
understand complexity theory and the for the ’what if’-scenarios,
application of complexity theory, because we
need to understand systems.
and you need to understand;
how do I make my city more
Cities function as systems of systems and we resilient to climate change,
need to understand the interrelation between
those systems – between the energy system,
but also more resilient to
the water system, the food system and the social and economic change.”
waste system. Those four are interconnected
What are the things that would be disruptive you’re dealing with greater flood risks there is
and what are the actions that I can take to no way of soaking up the excess water that is
mitigate against that? But also to predict it; coming through and is going down stream into
what are the four warning signs that I want to the cities. That is critical relationship between
set as sign posts for action going forward. What land management in rural areas and urban
are the things I want to track? This is already risks management and resilience. So we need
happening in Copenhagen, I know in relation the to think about the cities within the context of
water system, I’m sure it’s happening elsewhere its super-urban surrounding and also in terms
in other cities, I’m just not aware of it specifically. of the relationship between the city and the
I do know then I look around the world, the big surrounding villages and small towns that are so
difference in the dialogue that I’m hearing over heavily dependent of the economy of that city.
the last couple of years in relation to climate Understanding those is really important to the
change, is that people are talking less about good social functioning and the social fabric of
mitigation and more about adaptation and Denmark over all. So it’s about the relationship
resilience. And that’s a fact. We just have to deal between Copenhagen and the other cities, the
with that and make sure that we’re prepared. other cities and their surrounding market towns
and those towns of the farming and agricultural
The second thing is; a much more integrated structure. It has to be thought of as a system,
resource planning process between the cities we can’t just think of the city in isolation. It has
and the surrounding hinterland of the city. to be thought within the spatial context within
which it’s at
”The symbiosis; the The second area is reform and governance.
interrelation between the And for me the rules of the game are changing
city and its surrounding rural to government. The next 15 years will see the
areas will be critical.” implication of social media transforming into
governance and urban institutional reform.
We should think about it as a catchment area.
And that is not only in terms of food production
and waste management, but also in terms of
”The barriers between
energy production and energy management. the citizen and the state
And we need to understand how the city relates are breaking down. There
to its surrounding areas. Not just farmers in the
agricultural sector, but also rewinding. In the
will be much more direct
UK there’s a really interesting program that is democracy, participation and
looking at the implications of the deforestation awareness. And the problem
of upland areas and increased flooding events
in cities. Now, the policies that farmers are
is that the institutions of
making in to how they grace their land – if they government – both in cities
chop down trees to make more gracing land for and at national level – still
sheep, there’s increased water run off, so that if reflect the 19th century.”
91
We haven’t seen much institutional, governmental will in the world you have to look back to what
reform since the beginning of the 20th century. happened to corporations in the 1990’s and
Or even before. And yet social norms have 2000’s: There was a fundamentally investment in
changed, economic production have changed. the training and capability development around
We’re now in a world where the information age digital technology that has not caught up in the
has caught up with us and yet the institution public sector. And it needs to be caught up in
and forms of government is still reflecting the the public sector for cities to remain relevant.
industrial economy. That can’t be right. We need We also need to think about how we reform
to make sure that we are reforming government education, because at the moment we aren’t
and it’s not just about public and private. What educating children to be creative. We tend to
is going to happening in that middle ground of educate children – and again this is less stark
public and private? What are the old institutional in Denmark and in the Nordic countries than it
forms that we need to bring back about is elsewhere – but we’re in a situation where our
cooperatives and mutual structures that will education systems are very good at creating
bridge the gap of trust. Because the moment that factory workers for the industrial economy. We
there seems to be a breakdown of trust between tell people how they need to do thing, teachers
individual citizens and the state – now that isn’t tell children how they need to learn and then the
as stark in Denmark as it is elsewhere in the children repeat it back.
world – but if you go to the Middle East, you go
South America, you go to other parts of Europe;
Greece, Spain, Portugal, there is a fundamental
”But we’re not very good at
breakdown of trust between government incentivizing to be creative
institution and the citizen. and to be entrepreneurial.
We need to find a way of bridging that trust
We’re teaching them to be
gap by introducing new governmental forms good factory workers. And
that are somewhere between the public realm if we want to create that
and private realm, but are reinstalling these
capabilities of mutual cooperative structures
carter of good designers and
that directly engage citizens. And engage good entrepreneurs for 2030,
citizens in the co-creation of the city and the 2040 and 2050 it starts now.”
planning of the city.
It starts now with freeing up education to
The second is; cities need to retrain the be much more creative, to develop a broad
employees in the public sector to be aware of section of capabilities that aren’t just about
the digital and information age. It’s woeful as it creating doctors and engineers and lawyers,
currently stands. So no disrespect to Søren and but is about creating good entrepreneurs, good
the team that are working in the city government digital designers, and good architects. And
as it’s currently standing, but with the best that means we fundamentally need to reform
primary, secondary and thirdly education.
And then finally we need to invest in the And finally, we need to invest in digital
underlying infrastructure. And that doesn’t infrastructure. We need to make sure we are able
just mean civil engineering. This is a real to embed sensing and control capabilities into
buck bear of mine. Because when we talk the urban fabric, but we also need to capture the
about infrastructure there is a mental that data that is already out there and use it much
we are talking about; these things; large more effectively. Now the city of Copenhagen and
transportation projects, large water projects, Realdania have taken a huge step forward with
large energy projects. And yes, we need to CCC on developing the big infrastructure project.
continue in infrastructure and replacement It’s truly world leading – lots of people have been
of infrastructure. But we also need to think talking to me about it. That is the first step. We
about digital infrastructure and production need to start capturing that data, we need to
infrastructure. If we want to encourage good think about how we use that data to derive insight
entrepreneurs we need spaces where they can and to develop new applications, products and
work. Where they can come together, share services. But that is an infrastructure development.
ideas, get access to good knowledge and good
ideas and applied research, so that they can go
away and start building their own businesses at
”We don’t think twice about
a low cost. building a 300 million Euro
bridge. But we do think twice
”We need to remove the about a two million dollar
barriers to entrepreneurship, investment in developing
create spaces that give an infrastructure for digital
people capabilities, access to economy.”
tools, access to knowledge Go figure, right. When we’re talking about
and access to capital that making decisions of the future of the economy,
if we’re not investing in this infrastructure,
will allow them to then build how can we expect that we’re going to at the
their own businesses and be forefront of the digital design economy as it
entrepreneurial.” moves forward?
So I’ll leave it there. Hopefully I made think

We also need to build more maker spaces, we a little bit and put out some thoughts. I
need to encourage that transition to the new would love if we have a bit of time to have a
production economy by enabling people to conversation about it. Thank you.
develop digital design capabilities and digital
production capabilities.
93
Strategic dilemmas and
challenges towards 2050
Together, the four scenarios, estimates by Rambøll and the three firm of
architects’ illustrations have bared a number of dilemmas, challenges and
possible solutions. The necessity for Denmark to be prepared for more
than one future is obvious.
The idea of the scenarios is not to show exactly ”In order to succeed with
which choice and which road to take when it this transition, we need
comes to the green transition. They are meant
as a starting point for a qualified discussion on a massive investment in
the development related to a green transition renewable energy and
of our cities and our cities through to 2050.
Denmark, the Danish regions, municipalities,
energy savings.”
businesses and citizens must in their actions Nadeem Niwaz, energy planner, Rambøll
and strategies prepare to navigate multiple
futures. The dilemmas and questions raised here
are founded on reports ’Green growth in
The central question is: How do we create Denmark towards 2050’, ’Metrics of green
a green, well-balanced Denmark? A country conversion in Denmark towards 2050’ and
which both realizes the ambition of being free ’Sustainable Danish cities and city regions
of fossil fuels by 2050 and balances growth, towards 2050’ along with the debate events
welfare, quality of life and connectivity across held in connection with the DK2050 project.
Denmark. Politicians, experts, architects, citizens and
more have contributed to qualify a number of
Decisions need to be made at national, regional the dilemmas and questions that are relevant
and local levels in the future. A large group to our shared future. The essence has been
of different players will contribute with input highlighted, and the list is in no way final. The
and knowledge in order to qualify the debate purpose is to kick-start a debate-generating
and make a foundation for the strategies and dialogue about Denmark’s future based on
political decisions that need to be made. this material.
95
”We should adapt the tax structures – it’s absurd that
electricity taxes are high, while 57 percent of the electricity
bill finances welfare. Unfortunately, that means that the
Danes are encouraged to make the wrong choices. Instead
of an energy-efficient, electrically powered heat pump,
Danes buy wood pellet boilers. The consequence is a bad
use of natural resources and a socio-economic loss. Wrong
taxes are an impediment to the green transition. Only 8
percent of the bill finances the green transition. To reach
our goals, we need the EU to join in with a shared tax
structure which accommodates the green alternatives in
a better way.”
Lars Aagaard, CEO, the Danish Energy Association
ENERGY AND CLIMATE • What does it mean for Denmark if once

Most people agree that the emission of CO2 again the world’s leaders don’t succeed
needs to be reduced for the sake of the climate. in signing a deal about the reduction of
Whatever the future holds, Denmark must – like CO2 emissions?
the rest of the world – reduce its use of fossil
fuels. Denmark can’t stand alone in the fight to • Which degree of green transition do
create a sustainable society since we depend we want, what is a realistic goal by
on the deals made on EU level and globally. 2050, and who should lead the green
transition?
Since COP15, there has been a kind of
standstill when it comes to signing global • Which tasks will the state, the regions
climate agreements. But a new momentum is and the municipalities take on in the
appearing, and in connection with COP21 in future when it comes to implementing
December 2015, there are new possibilities of green solutions?
signing a new global climate agreement as well
as new UN goals for a sustainable development. • Which choices must citizens make when
Which dilemmas does that make us face, and it comes to the green transition?
what kind of questions does it inspire?
ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
We are eating through the resources of the Technological innovation has always played
earth to an extent where it doesn’t have time to a huge part in the development of both
regenerate. The big question of the 21st century society and economic life. It will continue to
is how we can maintain our living standards with do so during the green transition. New green
the resources our planet has to offer. You can technology might very well be a crucial element
say that we need to take some serious steps in the transition. The ability to develop and
when it comes to reducing air pollution and implement green technologies broadly will have
consumption of resources and at the same time big influence on the possibility of reducing
secure biological diversity if we want to continue carbon emissions and for the green transition.
using our natural resources. That’s why our
ability to recycle our resources is more relevant The technological solutions for creating a
than ever in a world with a growing population. 100 percent carbon-neutral society already
Denmark is relatively good at recycling, but the exist, but it will be expensive to implement
challenge is that it’s a task handled by many them. In order to create a society that’s more
people, and it’s up to each city to decide their sustainable than the one we have today, we
level of recycling. Which dilemmas and questions need big investments in both renewable
does this bring forward? energy and energy-efficient solutions. These
investments need to be financed by the state,
• How realistic is it to reduce resource the municipalities, the citizens or business
consumption globally? enterprises. Is Denmark ready for that?
• How can Denmark be more ambitious • How do we finance the green transition
than the government currently dictates in the future and which one should be the
when it comes to recycling? dominating economic model?
• If 100 percent of our garbage is • How do we balance the wish for a higher
to be recycled, we need to have a degree of green transition with the fact
homogeneous garbage collection system that the state’s biggest source of income
all across Denmark, and to intervene comes from fossil fuels? Is that an
in the municipal autonomy. Is Denmark impediment to the green transition?
ready for that?
• Which solutions are best for society in the
• How does each citizen navigate when long run – the central or decentralized
it comes to national and local guidelines ones? And is society ready to prioritize
for the environment and prioritize and invest what it takes?
accordingly?
• What kind of responsibility does the
business community have when it comes
to developing technological solutions
for the cities of the future and the
prioritization of solution choices?
97
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY ”In Denmark, the tax system
It’s a well-known fact that the transport sector
is the biggest emitter of CO2. The energy
is made up in a way that
consumption in the transport sector makes up means that once you have a
a third of Denmark’s energy consumption and car, you must use it.”
is covered mainly by fossil fuels. That makes
the transport sector a particular challenge Søren Brøndum, president
when it comes to reducing CO2 emissions in of transport, Rambøll
both Denmark and globally.
CITIZEN AND SOCIETY
The increase in vehicular traffic has led to a In order to create green, sustainable cities that
number of challenges in Danish municipalities. people want to live and work in, we need all
The pressure on the roads is increasing, and interested parties to get involved – from state,
the bigger cities experience crowding and regions and municipalities to the business
delays in car traffic. At the same time, this leads sector, power companies and all citizens.
to reduced mobility, increased air pollution
and negative consequences for city life, citizen The primary role of the state is to supply
health and the climate. the general political frames in the form
of agreements, strategies, action plans,
Increased urbanization makes it even more instruments and financial incitements to
important to focus on new solutions that can furthering the development. The role of the
improve mobility in and around cities as well municipalities is to make sure that plans of
as contribute to a healthier and better urban action and strategies get implemented in a
environment. close collaboration with the business sector
and the citizens.
• How do we reduce the CO2 emissions
from vehicular traffic, and which The business sector and knowledge institutions
incentives that don’t exist today are hold a responsibility to develop and deliver
necessary? technological solutions and know-how that can
support a green transition by being o top of the
• What does it take to make a collective development.
plan of action for the reduction of CO2
emissions from vehicular traffic? Citizens have a responsibility to actively play
along and make use of the solutions offered
• Which decisions do we need to take now as well as implement the different solutions
in order to reach the government’s goal and possibilities that are necessary to create a
of having a transport sector that’s free of green and sustainable society.
fossil fuels by 2050?
• Which incitements are necessary to make

citizens choose energy-efficient modes
of transportation rather that their car?
Another important aspect in the debate is These dilemmas and questions are central in
quality of life. What quality of life means to each the debate on the green transition and on what
citizen in relation to the green transition and kind of society we want Denmark to have in
increased urbanization can be very subjective. the future. The answers don’t need to come to
That means that quality of life is difficult to us within the next three or five years. It takes
measure. But everyone agrees that cities need time, and politicians, government officials and
to strive to create the best possible frames for the population need to accept this if we want
the good life if they want to survive. to create a well-balanced Denmark. But how
much time do we have? How much time can
The connection between quality of life, pass before we have to make some important
economic growth and green transition makes it decisions about the green transition?
relevant to discuss a number of questions:
• Which choices are we, as individuals,

”We are not facing an
ready to make when it comes to the green energy-technological
transition and our private consumption? challenge. It’s a question of
Do we need to dial it down for the benefit
of the green transition? And is state
political prioritization and
regulation necessary, or will it be up to overcoming the financial,
each citizen to make the choices he or administrative and legal
she wants? obstacles that stand in the
• How do we connect economic growth way of a green transition.”
with green transition and a high quality Nadeem Niwaz, energy planner, Rambøll
of life? Is a job for the state or the
municipalities or for the citizens? The only thing we must do is to make
decisions.
• Whose responsibility is it to make
decisions when it comes to quality of
life? The state or the cities – or is it up to
the citizens themselves?
• Which role should the state play

when it comes to making the
framework and creating incentives
for the implementation of new green
technologies?
99
Four perspectives on DK2050
Four players from sectors contributing to shaping the Denmark of the future talk
about their ideas on how to use DK2050, and how to handle some of the dilemmas
that the green transition faces us with. They talk about which scenarios they find
most attractive, and which one is the most realistic for Denmark in the year 2050.
MARTIN DAMM – NOT ALL SCENARIOS

ARE EQUALLY DESIRABLE
Martin Damm is the mayor of Kalundborg,
part of the DK2050 project. In scenario ’Green
state’, Kalundborg is described as an innovative
municipality. The green transition has happened
because Kalundborg has put focus on green
industry, nature development and capitalization
of the Kattegat connection. But there are other
possible futures for Kalundborg. Here, Martin
Damm talks about how DK2050 can contribute,
and how Kalundborg will use the future
scenarios in their work with green growth.
From your point of view as mayor of

Kalundborg, how have you gotten from
DK2050 that you couldn’t have gotten
somewhere else?
Generally speaking, it has allowed us to be
part of a greater whole – the project is called
Denmark2050 after all. This has been a good
opportunity for us to zoom out and look at
Martin Damm, mayor of the municipality of Kalundborg. our city in a broader perspective. On a day to
Photo: Municipality of Kalundborg day basis, we work with local conditions, and
even if we turn towards the outside world –
both regionally, nationally and internationally
(Kalundborg is the home of several businesses
MARTIN DAMM operating on an international level, ed.) –
• Mayor of Kalundborg (Venstre) DK2050 has made us take further steps out
since 2010. there. DK2050 has provided us with substantial
material – a basis of knowledge we would
• President of Kommunernes not have been able to build on our own. An
Landsforening (Local Government interdisciplinary team of great specialists and
Denmark) since March 2014. experts have explained and let us know how
they see the perspectives for Kalundborg’s
101
long-term development. DK2050 has provided The project has created value for us by
us with a row of interesting strategic dilemmas putting into words and pictures the issues
in the green transition. I note particularly that a we need to address. For instance – will the
focus on development, tests and implementation Kattegat connection make Kalundborg a centre
of green technology is still thought to have for development and growth between the
a huge impact on business, and therefore metropoles, or do we risk become a place that
on the economy, and that this will to a large no one ever visits? Another question raised
extent be based on a strong collaboration by DK2050 is how far we should go in order to
between authorities, businesses and knowledge reach our energy goals. Not all scenarios are
institutions. That connects nicely with the equally desirable, and it’s a good thing to have
mindset we already have and work with, and all solutions out in the open in a democratic
DK2050 has inspired us to keep going. debate. I don’t see the scenarios as done
deals on what reality will look like in 2050, but
How will Kalundborg be able to use the the scenarios can help us view our own local
scenarios in the future? challenges in a larger perspective. We bring
We know from planning strategies and district the strategic challenges described in DK2050
plans, that it can be difficult for citizens to relate into the dialogue and discussion we have with
to development plans reaching eg. 12 years into citizens, associations and businesses about
the future. The 35 years of DK2050 can seem the development of the city. I hope that the
unreal and abstract. It’s difficult to make that beautiful collage by SLETH along with the
mental journey to the year 2050. Does that specific description of the challenges we face
mean that we can’t use the scenarios? No, not in the municipality of Kalundborg will inspire
at all. Kalundborg is a part of DK2050 because more people to join the local debate.
we believe that the challenges that the green
transition faces mean that we need to learn to Which of the four scenarios is the
think far ahead. It doesn’t make any sense to most desirable for Kalundborg, in your
think short-term, especially when we are dealing opinion?
with extensive investments in energy plants In the final report, Kalundborg is placed in
and infrastructure. We will try to describe these ’Green state’, which is the only scenario with a
conditions in our work with strategic energy 100 percent green transition, so that’s positive.
planning and in our upcoming plan strategy. ’Green state’ is also the scenario where the
We will use the DK2050 scenarios as something state takes charge of the green transition. In
that we can bounce our ideas and wishes off my opinion, the picture painted in ’Green state’
of. We have to be brave enough to have that is a little over the top, because we already
discussion and make difficult decisions that have a very strong, local involvement, where
reach far into the future. citizens, associations and businesses work for
the development of the municipality, and where If you could make one wish for the
many results have come from local initiatives. In politicians at Christiansborg, how would
that sense, I see ’Green networks’ as a desirable they make it possible for a municipality
scenario, but preferably combined with the like Kalundborg to contribute in the best
elements from ’Green state’ that have to do way to the green transition through
with solutions on infrastructure, so that the to 2050?
country gets connected and not torn apart. One wish would definitely be to have general
conditions that allow businesses to develop
Which of the four scenarios paints the into something more sustainable. This calls
most realistic picture of the year 2050? for a change in the tax system and legislation
That’s a hard question to answer. DK2050 is so that businesses aren’t punished when they
focused in energy consumption, energy supply try to take better advantage of resources, but
and transport in Denmark, the international are helped to come up with new solutions that
dimension takes up only little space which might even mean more jobs. I can only urge
is a considerable uncertainty factor in these politicians to take note of the experiences
scenarios. But if I were to make a guess, I’d we have made through a number of years in
start by saying something that I’m sure of Kalundborg with the industrial symbiosis.
– that the scenario for 2050 is not an either-
or, but and both-and. By that I mean that we
need all resources to meet the enormous
task that a completely green transition is. A
realistic scenario, to me, is one that balances
between ’Green networks’ and ’Green state’.
According to how the international climate
changes, the scenario will move towards
’Green compromises’. I don’t believe in the
’Green guerilla’ scenario which describes the
political system as being paralyzed. Even if
the political system can seem slow, I feel an
increasing understanding of the necessity
to act, and these years, important political
agreements are being made both in Denmark
and internationally which will influence the
green transition.
103
KATHRINE RICHARDSON Which one of the four scenarios is most
– WE NEED TO THINK LONG-TERM realistic for Denmark in 2050?
Katherine Richardson is part the expert panel I think ’Green networks’ is the one closest
that has contributed to the development of to what we will see, but that doesn’t mean I
DK2050. She has worked with climate research think that Denmark in 2050 will look like the
for many years and has been the head of Denmark of the scenario.
the government’s climate commission. Here,
Katherine Richardson explains how she feels What should the politicians at
DK2050 can be used in the future, and which Christiansborg do in order to realize
scenarios she would like to see in Denmark. the green transition by 2050?
I think it’s very important not to get lost in that
What is the most important contribution, question now. Prices fluctuate a lot. Right now,
DK2050 has made when it comes to oil prices are low, but that doesn’t mean they will
qualifying the debate about green be next year too. Naturally, it’s important to make
transition in Denmark? transitions as cost-efficient as possible, but you
DK2050 targets the people whose decisions should not get lost in short-sighted financial
actually shape Denmark’s future. The goal was calculations when transitioning an energy
to make it clear to local politicians and other system where the investments in infrastructure
decision-makers what their decisions mean will be written off for decades to come! The most
for the future, and I think that goal has been important thing in realizing the green transition
achieved to some degree. is to keep an eye on the long-term goal, I think.
Many countries are jealous of Denmark, because
Which of the four scenarios is most we have actually succeeded in making a long-
desirable for Denmark, in your eyes? term plan for 2050.
Actually, I’m not really attracted to any of them,
but I have the same problem when it comes
to politics. I always find that my views are in-
between two candidates! When it comes to the
scenarios, I think I’m somewhere in-between
’Green state’ and ’Green networks’.
KATHERINE RICHARDSON
• Professor of biological oceanography
and leader of the Sustainability
Science Centre at the University
of Copenhagen.
• Head of the government’s climate
commission from 2008 to 2010.
DK2050 takes a broad approach, but foodstuffs, transport etc.) that are very efficient
it doesn’t encompass everything. How in their consumption of energy and – more
could DK2050 evolve to strengthen the than anything – that you make sure that when
debate on green transition? solving a problem connected to one system,
I think that maybe DK2050 is a little too you don’t create one in another system. So
focused on energy. There is a growing ’the next time’ I’d suggest thinking a little more
acknowledgement of the fact that a sustainable holistically about the development of society
development needs ’systems’ (energy, and not just about energy.
Katherine Richardson spoke at the DK2050 conference. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
105
PEDER BALTZER NIELSEN – more focus on that in the future, and here, we
THE SCENARIOS MAKE US STOP AND have been able to start a discussion with the
TAKE NOTICE other municipalities in our region. A discussion
Peder Baltzer Nielsen is city architect in the about the necessity of a strong collaboration
municipality of Aalborg who is part of DK2050. where we depend on each other, and where
Aalborg’s future looks very different in the four we can have a discussion that’s not just about
scenarios. In ’Green state’, the city’s airport will the four big cities and then ’the fringes’. Where
be closed, while it becomes an important hub we can once and for all let go of the rigorous
in ’Green compromises’. Peder Baltzer warns reminiscences of the old regional plans. A future
against choosing one scenario and talks about sustainable Denmark has to be much more
how he sees the scenarios as an important base dynamic. DK2050 can show the way.
for collaboration, for plan strategies and for
important debates on how we can create a green What are the strengths and weaknesses
future for Denmark. of working with scenarios in order to
develop a foundation for debating how
What is the important thing, Northern Denmark and Danish cities can navigate
Jutland and Aalborg has gotten out of when realizing the green transition?
DK2050 that you wouldn’t have gotten The strength is that we can allow ourselves
otherwise? to make ’pictures’ of the development, based
It’s been interesting to be part of the scenario on good analyses and documented trends.
method. There have been some great analyses I love the kind of maps that force us to stop
and good data that we can use in our future and take notice, protest, wonder and get new
work. Both when it comes to broad urban views on how conditions can change in other
development, about business development, the ways than we thought they would. However,
energy transition and lots more. But also, and this is also the weakness. We have a situation
not least so, when it comes to the debate on where everything needs to be provocative and
city regional collaborations. We have to put a lot therefore translated into a black and white
world. It’s either-or. And everything that could
turn out to be bad, ’comes from Copenhagen’,
in a North Jutland perspective. I’m sick of
that way of thinking, but it’s hard to crush.
PEDER BALTZER NIELSEN So if we don’t treat the further debate on the
• City architect, Aalborg, since 2010. four scenarios with grace, but just ask that
we choose one of them, we lose all the fine
• Previously employed by Realdania details of the discussion. Then you only realize
Arealudvikling (area development) that the airport will close in one scenario and
where he worked with city the university in another. And that makes any
transformations and city development further discussion pretty much impossible.
through public-private partnerships, Especially when the assertions don’t seem to
as well as by the Danish Ministry of be supported qualitatively in the material.
the Environment and several other
parts of the public sector.
Which of the four scenarios is most Which one of the four scenarios is most
desirable to you – and for Denmark? realistic for Denmark in 2050?
Like I said, I don’t think it’s relevant within a I think that ’Green networks’ is the one that
serious work process to choose between the best mirrors which way the development will
scenarios. None of them will be carried out go. Like I said, that doesn’t mean that that
completely. But they let us know that reality scenario will be carried out or is the winner. But
can be influenced, and what we need to take I think it mirrors a reality that’s very Danish.
into consideration in order to make all aspects And in Northern Jutland for sure, it’s a well-
of a future development to come together known type of development. We are used to
in a sustainable development – a broad network collaborations. On a regional level,
sustainability, that is, where the development is where the collaboration between the public
well-balanced, but green. sphere, the business sector and the research
Peder Baltzer Nielsen took part in the DK2050 debate on how to reach our goals of a green transitioned Denmark in the
best way possible. Photo: Lars Engelgaardomstillet Danmark i 2050. Foto: Lars Engelgaard.
107
environment has given Northern Jutland and like that. That would turn the debate from a
Aalborg the strength it has today. And locally, in unnecessary discussion of whether the beach
the cities, we need to strengthen the network protection line, the coast protection or the
collaborations on the city’s, neighbourhoods’ retail trade regulations were too strict or not.
and communities’ sustainable development. Then you could hope for a focus on green
The citizens expect this, and it’s what gives the development with frames for how the local
best results along with a sense of ownership. network (municipalities, citizens, business
sector) should act within the long-term goals.
What should the politicians at
Christiansborg do in order to realize the How will you use DK2050 in
green transition by 2050? Aalborg now?
It would be amazing if we could change the In Aalborg, we will use it as a base for a
debate from ’here and now’ solutions and short- thorough debate on the city’s and city region’s
term goals to solid frameworks and long-term future. Probably as part of a new plan strategy,
goals. I can’t stand the discussion about the but also for a broader debate on how we
Planning Act blocking the development – it’s should collaborate in order to withstand a
been going on for 20 years. Actually, it’s the development that doesn’t happen on its own.
never-ending criticism about the same things We are used to this – that things don’t happen
that prevent us from having a discussion about on their own. But through DK2050 we have
the real perspectives of development. We work been provided with analytic material which
in the municipalities every single day to realize raises some questions and point out some
a green transition within the frames we have development trends which can benefit Aalborg,
been given politically. The problem is that but also some serious problems if we don’t pay
the statements about frames and goals get attention to them. The data is a good and solid
more and more difficult to see – if they’re even basis for the necessary discussion we must
there? Imagine if DK2050 had been a policy have with each other and with the citizens.
declaration from the government for discussion Only through that discussion can we take
such as a ’country plan review’ or something ownership over a green future.
PETER RATHJE – THE BUSINESS The project has created a lot of valuable images
SECTOR IS PART OF THE SOLUTION of the future that we can use in connection with
Peter Rathje is the CEO of ProjectZero in ProjectZero to constantly fine tune solutions and
Sønderborg and has played an active part involvement.
in DK2050. ProjectZero is a public-private
partnership established in 2007 by SE, Bitten We have learned that the future is about
& Mads Clausens Fond, the municipality of daring to make the right decisions in time, that
Sønderborg, DONG Energy and the Nordea solutions are created collaboratively, that the
Foundation. The goal of ProjectZero is to make national framework is central to the country
the Sønderborg area completely CO2-neutral by getting through the transition in a strong
the end of 2029. manner. But also that the price for the ongoing
centralization (focused around Copenhagen)
Here, Peter Rathje talks to us about how he can become unacceptably high for the
thinks Danish municipalities and businesses provincial towns who might want to seek
can use DK2050 in their efforts to realize the alternative scenarios in order to not lose power
green transition locally, and how Sønderborg and development. Thus, the ’Green guerilla’
specifically can use DK2050. scenario has become Sønderborg’s mantra
which kan make sure our energy ambitions can
What is the important thing, Sønderborg be carried through without compromise, in case
has gotten out of DK2050 that you the national efforts lack ambition, energy and
wouldn’t have gotten otherwise? inclusivity.
The DK2050 project has created challenging
scenarios, exciting views for the future as well Which of the four scenarios is most
as debate which have broken down habitual desirable to Sønderborg – and to
thinking, created informal involving discussions, Denmark?
facilitated free debate and generally dealt a I believe in the value of working out solutions
new hand – all of it with massive support from in a collaboration between the country’s 98
the many local participants. Involving many municipalities, and that the scenario ’Green
young people and listening to their ideas and networks’ ideally speaking represents this – for
expectations has opened up new eyes as well as both Sønderborg and Denmark.
opportunities.
Which one of the four scenarios is most
realistic for Denmark in 2050?
DK2050 has made the centralization and its
negative consequences for provincial towns
PETER RATHJE more obvious, and I’m afraid that centralization
will grow through to 2050 with new negative
• CEO of ProjectZero in Sønderborg
consequences for a balanced growth and
since 2007.
development. In that case, Sønderborg should
• Former CEO of Sønderborg hold on to its ambitions and live them out
Havneselskab and a number of through the ’Green guerilla’ scenario.
big and small businesses.
109
Peter Rathje took part in the debate at the DK2050 conference about how to reach the ambitions of a green transitioned
Denmark by 2050. Photo: Lars Engelgaard
How do you view the role and DK2050 has created images of future
possibilities of cities and businesses to Denmark which both reflect global challenges
realize the green transition in Denmark – and address national development trends.
and how can they use DK2050? Many of these images are scary and can be
Cities are the new drivers of this transition seen as wake-up calls for provincial towns. A
both in Denmark and abroad. Why wait for good knowledge of images and scenarios can
international agreements, when visionary mobilize the ’we powers’ and create new local
politicians, along with businesses and citizens, calls for action.
can create local initiatives which both
strengthen the climate efforts and come up
with scalable solutions for growth, and growth.
Luckily, we see lots of examples of this all over
Denmark.
What kind of responsibility does the When we collaborate in Denmark, we don’t
business sector have when it comes to just solve the transition of Danish cities, we
developing technological solutions for also create a foundation for accelerating the
the cities of the future and prioritizing development internationally.
the choice of solutions?
The business sector is both part of the problem What should the politicians at
and part of the solution. Nationally, businesses’ Christiansborg do in order to realize the
manufacturing processes account for roughly 30 green transition by 2050?
percent of our CO2 emissions, but green Danish The green transition ought to be a central point
businesses also hold the components for the on national political agendas, it is necessary to
solutions that can help transition both Danish think further than the four year election period,
and foreign cities. Particularly when it comes to and the transition must be anchored through
energy-efficient buildings, green district heating, involvement. Politicians hold a big responsibility
bio-gas plants, energy from windmills etc. to point out and stick to the direction and
allocate the resources.
Abroad, Denmark is known for green solutions,
’State of Green’, and it makes sense that we How will you use DK2050 in
strengthen our green brand and image, are Sønderborg now?
ambitious and edgy – and even in the cities, all In 2015, Sønderborg will continue the debate
the way, taste our own medicine. in order to further involve local politicians,
leave its mark on the plan strategy, the area’s
There is a need to extend the collaborations ProjectZero thinking, values and education.
through public-private partnerships and This is not a full stop, only a comma …
strengthen the systems working through a
larger involvement of advisers – and in this way
create more robust solutions and an accelerated
transition.
111
Appendix 1: Programme for DK2050
at the People’s Meeting 2014
DEBATE: CAN DENMARK AND Participants:
DANISH REGIONS AFFORD TO BE • Peter Hesseldahl, innovation scientist and
GREEN PIONEERS? writer, Universe Fonden.
Can Denmark and Danish city regions survive • Peter Rathje, CEO, ProjectZero.
the international competition with other • Ulf Boman, partner and future strategist,
countries and regions if we speed up the green Kairos Future.
transition? Do Danish cities and regiosn have • Aase Nygaard, deputy mayor, Sønderborg.
different possibilities of contributing to the • Charlotte Riis Engelbrecht, head of the
green transition towards 2050? Are larger culture, citizens and leisure council,
regional collaborations the way to go? Sønderborg.
Participants: DK2050 SCENARIO WORKSHOP WITH

• Anker Boye, mayor, Odense. MUTOPIA
• Lars Goldschmidt, former president of the Architecture firm MUTOPIA from Copenhagen
Confederation of Danish Industry. discusses the DK2050 scenario ’Green grid’ in
• JJohannes Lundsfryd Jensen, group works and pictures. Join in to draw and discuss
chairman, Socialdemokraterne in Middelfart the framework for a future Denmark, dominated
City Council and head of the environment by individual freedom of choice and faith that
and energy council. market forces can solve the environment
• Tonny Johansen, CEO of Rambøll problems.
Management Consulting.
• Ulf Boman, Kairos Future. Participants:
• Flemming Madsen, head of secretaria, • Serban Cornea, partner, MUTOPIA.
DOLL – National GreenLab for photonics • Kristina Andersen, partner, MUTOPIA.
and lighting. • Ulf Boman, partner, Kairos Future.
CAN THE GREEN TRANSITION CAN IT SUSTAIN? BUILDING

SAVE MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES SUCH WORKSHOP FOR SCHOOLCHILDREN
AS SØNDERBORG? Schoolchildren from Bornholm compete in
In medium-sized provincial towns, the building houses of the future. Will we live high
population decreases, and the cities’ functions and closely in the future, by land or by sea – or
and foundations are undermined. But can green perhaps in new settlements on Mars? Come
transition create local progress and renewal – along and see generation 2050’s ideas on
and this turn dismantling into development? future buildings when they explore and build in
With ProjectZero, Sønderborg is trying to hold ’quirky’ materials. The workshop leaders today
on to its worth. Is that the way to go? are architects Julie Dufour Wiese and Malene
Abildgaard as well as engineer Stig P. Fjording.
Organizer: The Danish Architecture Centre,

IDA, the Architects’ Association and FRI.
113
DEBATE: ARCHITECTURE POLICY AND towards in order to design healthy, sustainable
DENMARK OF THE FUTURE cities. It is DK2050’s mission to encourage real
Man in focus – the influence of architecture innovative thinking when it comes to strategic
policy in 2050. How can local architecture and far-sighted planning of cities, infrastructure,
policies contribute to shaping the world energy, trade and transport across borders
of tomorrow and put green transition on and sectors.
the agenda?
How can local architecture policies support Participants:
long-sighted solutions going further than short- • Lars Aagaard, CEO, Danish Energy
sighted political campaign pledges? How do Association.
we make sure that man is in focus – is citizen • Jens Jonathan Steen, head of analysis,
involvement the way to a better Denmark Cevea.
in 2050? • Uffe Elbæk, party founder, Alternativet.
• Dan Stubbergaard, architect MAA and
Participants: partner, COBE.
• Marianne Jelved, minister of culture, • Poul Erik Lauridsen, president, Gate 21.
Radikale Venstre. • Jane Sandberg, president, Danish
• Natalie Mossin, president, the Danish Architects’ Association.
Architects’ Association.
• Serban Cornea, partner, MUTOPIA. CAN IT SUSTAIN? BUILDING
• Iver Enevoldsen, mayor, the municipality of WORKSHOP FOR YOUNG POLITICIANS
Ringkøbing-Skjern. We need to take care of the earth’s resources.
• Tina Saaby, cirt architect, Copenhagen. There has to be enough for future generations.
Engineers and architects are working on
DEBATE: WELFARE AND GREEN developing and rethinking new and resource-
ENERGY POLICY – HOW DO THEY GO efficient constructions. We challenge young
HAND IN HAND? politicians and people from Bornholm to
How to we secure an ambitious green build high and long with the fewest materials
transition in Denmark and maintain high quality possible. The buildings will be assessed by
in our welfare? architecture and engineering professionals.
The workshop leader today are architect Julie
The Danish Architecture Centre puts the Dufour and engineer Stig P. Fjording.
spotlight on DK2050 – an ambitious programme
which will create a qualified national debate on Organizer: The Danish Architecture Centre,
how we can create a sustainable society and city IDA, the Architects’ Association and FRI.
life by 2050. DK2050 addresses the possible
futures and roads that Danish cities can move
DEBATE: THE HOMES AND DK2050 SCENARIO WORKSHOP WITH
ACCOMMODATION TYPES OF WE ARCHITECTURE
THE FUTURE Progressive architect’s office WE architecture
More smart types of accommodation have been discusses the DK2050 scenario ’State of stuck’
introduced recently. The many functions of a in words and pictures. Join us in constructing
home can now be managed from an intelligent the frames for a future Denmark dominated
interface which enables home owners to by collective values and lifestyle, but where
control heat, water and energy consumption the technological development, especially the
– benefitting both their bank account and green technologies, is more uneven.
the green transition. New technological home
solutions will revolutionize the welfare industry Participants:
as well, where the elderly and the disabled • Julie Schmidt-Nielsen, partner,
can handle more everyday tasks on their WE architecture.
own thanks to smart accommodation types. • Mark Jay, partner, WE architecture.
The market for these solutions is expected
to explode in the coming years, and Danish CAN IT SUSTAIN? BUILDING
research funds and private organizations are WORKSHOP FOR CHILDREN AND
betting all on being first-movers within this YOUNG PEOPLE
development. But what do we want the homes Construction and building for children and
and types of accommodation to look like in the the young at heart – open for all. How high,
future, how do we create the frames for a good how long and how strong can you build? And
life in 2050, and which social relations do we what do you need to consider when you build
wish to encourage in the homes of the future – something beautiful, high or long? Workshop
with or without technology? leaders are architect Julie Dufour Wiese and
engineer Thomas Jensen.
Participants:
• Kristine Virén, magaging editor, Bolius. Organizer: The Danish Architecture Centre,
• Rasmus Astrup, project president, SLA. IDA, the Architects’ Association and FRI.
• Lars Juel Thiis, partner, CUBO.
• Peder Baltzer Nielsen, city architect, DK2050 SCENARIO WORKSHOP
Aalborg. WITH SLETH
• Palle Adamsen, president, BL. Aarhus firm of architects SLETH discusses the
DK2050 scenario ’Green state’ in pictures and
words. Join us in drawing up the frames for a
future Denmark dominated by collective values
and a technological development supported by
a progressive public policy.
Participants:
• Lars Jensen, partner, SLETH.
115
DEBATE: SLIMMING DOWN DEBATE: HOW WILL GENERATION 2050
SKRUMPELEV LIVE IN 2050?
Skrumpelev – perspectives on the The focus point is ’how will generation 2050
depopulation problem in Denmark. After live in 2050?’ It’s about both user-driven
Dansk Byplan Laboratorium’s new report we innovation and involvement of young people
turn the spotlight on the effects of increased in the development of our cities. How do
urbanization on rural areas. Should they be we take their wishes into account? How
dismantled, or is there value in keeping them? can they contribute, and what value does it
The Danish Architecture Centre focuses on have? We ask the minister of culture how the
how to create renewed growth and settlement governments’ architecture policy can help
in the rural areas. Should we dismantle the further local architecture policies which actively
rural municipalities and turn them into farming involve young people? Before the debate, the
industry? Should we just let it happen or go minister of culture will be given ’The charter
for a complete dismantling of the villages? Are for young involvement in city development
there any financial advantages on a national/ and society planning’ that 14 municipalities
regional/local level to (re)investing in ’fringe have signed in connection with the CityLAB
Denmark’? partnership. The charter underlines the
importance of qualifying the built environment
Participants: by taking advice from coming generations –
• Ellen Højgaard, president, The Danish just as the CityLAB partnerships shows new
Town Planning Institute. ways for young people, planners and politicians
• Anne V. Kristensen, deputy chairman, to work together on developing the sustainable
regional council, central Jutland, Venstre. cities of the future.
• Camilla Van Deurs, architect MAA, partner,
Gehl Architects. Participants:
• Charlotte Riis Engelbrecht, chairman of • Marianne Jelved, minister of culture,
the culture, citizens and leisure council, Radikale Venstre.
Sønderborg. • Esben Danielsen, head of innovations,
• Jannek Nyrop, head of city strategic staff, Orange Innovation.
Odense. • Mia Manghezi, development and building
president, Lejerbo.
CAN IT SUSTAIN? BUILDING • Kasper Larsen, business developer,
WORKSHOP Manova.
Construction and building for children and • Jannek Nyrop, head of city strategic staff,
the young at heart – open for all. How high, Odense.
how long and how strong can you build? And
what do you need to consider when you build DEBATE: PLUGGED IN OR PLUGGED
something beautiful, high or long? Workshop OUT? INFRASTRUCTURE IN 2050
leaders are architect Julie Dufour Wiese and The central focus is on the significance of
engineer Thomas Jensen. big, infrastructural constructions such as the
Fehmarn connection, the Kattegat connection
Organizer: The Danish Architecture Centre, and high-speed train for Danish regions. Which
IDA, the Architects’ Association and FRI. new hubs will appear? How do we secure a
continued development of sustainable mobility DK2050 SCENARIO WORKSHOP WITH
solutions such as the Danish bicycle culture? TREDJE NATUR
Can we do better and optimize our green Innovative landscaping and architecture firm
solutions? Tredje Natur (’third nature’) from Copenhagen
discusses DK2050 scenario ’Green guerilla’ in
Participants: pictures and words. Join us in drawing up and
• Klaus Bondam, president, Danish Cyclists’ discussing the frames for a future Denmark
Federation. dominated by individual values and lifestyles.
• Hans Henrik Henriksen, alderman, Aalborg.
• Jacob Bjerregaard, mayor, Fredericia. Participants:
• Torben Liborius, business political head of • Ole Schrøder, partner, Tredje Natur.
the Danish Construction Association. • Flemming Rafn Thomsen, partner,
• Lars Jensen, partner, SLETH Architects. Tredje Natur.

DEBATE: WHY DOES DENMARK HAVE CAN IT SUSTAIN? BUILDING
TO BE A ’GREEN LAB’? WORKSHOP
What possibilities does Denmark have when it Sustainable constructions and buildings for
comes to being a ’green lab’, where solutions children and the young at heart – open to all.
for the rest of the world can be tested and How high, long and strong can you build? And
developed? Is Denmark, Danish cities and what do you have to take into consideration
Danish knowledge good enough to be a when building something that’s not only
global hotspot for the development of green beautiful, tall or long, but also sustainable? And
solutions? With the minister of climate, energy what happens when you build with materials
and building we discuss how we make sure such as steel wire, spaghetti, drinking straws
that the Danish export of green technological and scotch tape? Participate in the competition
solutions remains profitable. In 2050, when to build the most sustainable construction.
we evaluate how we have secured a green Along the way, you can get advice from an
transition through labour and reorganizing the architect and an engineer who can give a few
industrial sector, which efforts/initiatives have pointers when it comes to building something
been the most important on a political level, both beautiful and good. Workshop leaders
nationally and regionally? are architect Julie Dufour Wiese and engineer
Thomas Jensen.
Participants:
• Rasmus Helveg Petersen, minister of climate, Organizer: The Danish Architecture Centre,
energy and building, Radikale Venstre. IDA, the Architects’ Association and FRI.
• Thomas Færgemann, president, Concito.
• Hanne Christensen, executive director,
Rambøll.
• Ole Schrøder, parter, Tredje Natur.
• Kristian Ruby, chief adviser, Operate.
• Flemming Rafn Thomsen, partner,
Tredje Natur.
• Finn Mortensen, president, State of Green.

117
The partnership behind DK2050
DK2050 scenario project supported by The biennale exhibition in Venice 2014 supported by
Participating
Municipalities Analysis partners Commissioner
Copenhagen Kent Martinussen, CEO, the Danish Architecture Centre
Aarhus
Aalborg Curator
Odense Stig L. Andersson, professor, landscape architect as well as
Ringkøbing-Skjern creative director and founder of architect firm SLA
Sønderborg Architects
Fredericia
Middelfart
Kalundborg Co-curator of ”Sustainable
Høje-Taastrup Danish cities and city regions Thanks to
towards 2050k” OSRAM, SpektraLED, New Mat, alluVial International,
Regions Egen Vinding & Datter, Bark House, Sibelco Denmark,
The Capital Region Knowledge panel
Niels Bohr Arkivet, Museum Jorn, Mariebjerg Kirkegaard,
of Denmark, Prof. Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University Den Hirschsprungske Samling, Thorvaldsens Museum, KØS,
the Region of Prof. Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School Carsten Hoff, iGuzzini, Lokalhistorisk Arkiv i Gentofte,
Southern Denmark, Prof. Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University G.N. Brandts Haves Venner.
North Denmark Region Prof. Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University
The catalogue is supported by
Project developer
NATIONALBANKENS JUBILÆUMSFOND
Coordinator in Venice
Arkitekt Troels Bruun, M+B Studio

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Greener Denmark

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Future Possibilities

Partnerships for a greener

Developed by the Danish Architecture Centre

Part of the DK2050 project

WELCOME TO 2050. . . . . . . . . . . 2 LOCAL DEBATE. . . . . . . . . . . . 40

WHEN SCENARIOS MEET DEBATE IN VENICE . . . . . . . . . 44

PREFACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 THE PEOPLE MEETING . . . . . . . 46

SHARED VISION OF GOALS . . . . . 10 FUTURE POSSIBILITIES –

CAMP 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 APPENDIX 1: PROGRAMME:

DK2050 presents a number of qualified ideas

Frank Jensen, Lord Mayor, Copenhagen Erik Lauritzen, mayor, Sønderborg

Jacob Bundsgaard, mayor, Aarhus Jacob Bjerregaard, mayor, Fredericia

Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor, Aalborg Steen Dahlstrøm, mayor, Middelfart

Anker Boye, mayor, Odense Martin Damm, mayor, Kalundborg

Iver Enevoldsen, mayor, Ringkøbing-Skjern Michael Ziegler, mayor, Høje-Taastrup

2 DK2050 – Sammen om et grønnere Danmark – Dansk Arkitektur Center

In Aalborg, the presentation of the four possible maps of Denmark led to a

Thomas Kastrup-Larsen, mayor of Aalborg

Which possibilities and dilemmas has

How do you see your role and possibilities

DK2050 – A NEW NATIONAL LAUNCH- DK2050 is an ambitious knowledge project

”It is the goal of the government that Denmark is free of coal,

Across sectors, fields, geography and communities, a group of central players

”The collaboration and ’out-of-box-thinking’ also include

The exhibition Empowerment of Aesthetics is Denmark’s official contribution to

WITH TOES DEEP IN THE SAND

As Stig L. Andersson reminds us, the Danes

Empowerment of Aesthetics provises DK2050

Sand, sound, roots, bark, pine needles and soil invite

Perhaps you can’t say that Ørsted’s poem

The time period that Ørsted made his

It is a modernity that constantly uses both art

The development of scenarios for Denmark’s green transition has happened

”The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the future, but

The solutions chosen from city to city vary greatly, as does

Despite problems with congestion and housing shortage, the

These developments have resulted in increasing

The ambition is to connect towns and medium-sized cities

GREEN, GREENER, GREENEST

CO2 Reduktion i 2050

The three other scenarios can be perceived

”Which investments are

consequences for, how

expensive it will be to realize

Nadeem Niwaz, energy planner, Rambøll

Camp 0 Camp 1 Camp 2 Local workshops in Architecture biennale

Development of scenarios (DAMVAD & Kairos Future)

Estimates of consequences (Rambøll)

Architectural processing (MUTOPIA, WE architecture & SLETH)

TRENDS IDENTIFIED regions. This led to the naming of a number

MAYORS ON A TRIP TO 2050 The scenarios were challenged and qualified by

”Copenhagen must dare to create collective solutions which

”In Ringkøbing-Skjern, the focus on foodstuffs and tourism

DECISION POWER AND COLLABORATION ”I think the four scenarios

”The collaboration across

”Big, collective investments

has already been passed,

According to Thomas Færgemann, investments

Even though there are several possible

AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Among other things, the professionals and

Room for experiments

”People must organize it Iver Enevoldsen, mayor of Ringkøbing-Skjern.

Tina Saaby, city architect in Copenhagen.