Future possibilities

Present actions

Green growth in Denmark

towards 2050
Four future scenarios

Made by DAMVAD & Kairos Future

1 / 06
Drawn up by
DAMVAD and Kairos Future

Part of the project DK2050

See more about the project at dac.dk/dk2050
Follow the project on twitter @DK2050_DAC
and #DK2050
ISBN 978-87-90668-64-8
2nd edition
If using the material, please credit
The Danish Architecture Centre DK2050 and
DAMVAD/Kairos Future when using graphics.

2 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

Contents
ABOUT THE REPORT. . . . . . . . . . 3
RESUME . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
1. INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . 13
2. THE SCENARIO METHOD
BEHIND DK2050. . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1 Scenario development as a method. . . . . . 17
2.2 Trends and uncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.3 Strategic uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
2.4 The problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.5 Interactive, iterative, qualitative. . . . . . . . .19
2.6 The demarcation of the scenarios. . . . . . . 20
3. DENMARK THEN AND NOW –
THE STARTING POINT FOR THE
FUTURE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.1 The story about green transition. . . . . . . 26
3.2 The development in numbers –
then, now and in the future . . . . . . . . . . 28
4. TRENDS AND STRATEGIC
UNCERTAINTIES . . . . . . . . . 37
4.1 Working with trends and uncertainties . . . . 37
4.2 Trends – safe developments. . . . . . . . . . .37
4.3 Uncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.4 Strategic uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
4.5 Four scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
5. GREEN STATE. . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.1 2050: Green for the state and the
community. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5.2 This is how it happened . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
5.3 Timeline for Green state . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
6. GREEN NETWORKS . . . . . . . . 57
6.1 2050: Goals from above –
action from below . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
6.2 This is how it happened . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.3 Timeline for Green networks . . . . . . . . . 64
MATRIX FOR 10 DANISH CITIES
IN 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
7. GREEN GUERILLA. . . . . . . . . 71
7.1 2050: Market and civilian society are
in control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
7.2 This is how it happened . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
7.3 Timeline for Green guerilla. . . . . . . . . . . 78
8. GREEN COMPROMISES . . . . . 81
8.1 2050: Growth for the state and
the community. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
8.2 This is how it happened . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
8.3 Timeline for Green compromises. . . . . . . 88
MATRIX FOR THE FOUR
SCENARIOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
9. STRATEGIC DILEMMAS
REGARDING
GREEN TRANSITION . . . . . . . 93
LITERATURE LIST . . . . . . . . . . . 97
APPENDIX I –
THE EXPERIENCES OF LARGE CITIES
IN NORTHERN EUROPE. . . . . . . 101
APPENDIX II –
CITY RESEARCH THROUGH
THREE DECADES. . . . . . . . . . . 107
1
About the report
This report, ‘Green growth in Denmark towards
2050 – Four future scenarios’ deals with both
complex and challenging problems concerning
Denmark and the green transition of Danish
cities in a future perspective. Everyone agrees
that a comprehensive green transition in both
industry and society is necessary to lower
CO2 emissions. But what are the conditions
for this and what freedom of action is there?
It cannot impact the growth and quality of
life in denmark. How is that possible? What
developmental trends are indicated for the
green transition for Danish municipalities up
until 2050? In order to be able to answer these
complex problems we use the scenario method.
Firstly, the report gives an introduction to
the scenario method and the large collective
work with trends and uncertainties that have
been ongoing in the project in the last year.
Then there is a historic retrospective on the
events and incidents that condition the future
perspectives at the centre of our attention. As
we can read in the historic events, looking 35
years into the future is not that far. For instance,
it has already been 35 years since DTU and Risø
built ’the world’s largest windmill’ by Ulfborg in
Western Jutland during the oil crisis and with
help from researchers from abroad. And it has
already been 17 years since the fixed connection
over the Great Belt was opened.
In a way scenarios are memories from the past.
Really, memories are qualitative. Therefore
scenarios are not the same as prognoses or
linear projections of the situation today. They
reach further. They demand creative thinking,
discussions and imagination. Still, scenarios can
benefit from relating to the reality of how things
look today and which can be projected 10–15
years using prognoses. Because even though
a lot can change, much will be stable or only
change gradually over time.
Therefore we have put the development
into numbers. With statistical data we show
how Denmark looks today in the area of
energy and environment, transport, business
and economy, and in relation to population
trends etc. The historical retrospect and the
statistical overview are followed by a thorough
description of four different scenarios. For all
four scenarios we review the development
towards 2050 focusing on international and
national development, the development in
different cities and cities of different sizes and
development in the areas of energy, transport,
business, economy, population and society.
In all scenarios we also pay attention to the
events that were the most important stepping
stones leading up to 2050.
Finally the report deals with the strategic
dilemmas that can be drawn up for the green
transition of the future in the light of our four
scenarios. What are the consequences and
what impact do they have for Denmark and the
Danish cities. What do they have to respond to?
What uncertainties are there when they choose
a strategy for the future?
To conclude, we describe the concrete
experience of five large Northern European
cities with specific green transition projects that
we think the Danish cities can learn from. Also,
we have made an overview of how city research
has developed over the last three decades.
The overview shows how different scientific
areas obtain an even larger integration, which
indicates a rising degree of interdisciplinary
research. This may be due to the fact that
researchers have found out that the solutions to
the challenges that the cities are facing cannot
be solved with one-sided efforts but that it
takes a wider foundation to succeed. This is a
picture that is seen in several of the scenarios
and what appears when you build on the green
transition the way we do here.
HAPPY READING AND HAPPY DEBATE.
3
 Strong interaction between politics and
green technology

Individual values GREEN GREEN Collective values

and lifestyles NETWORKS STATE and lifestyles
dominate dominate
how people relate to how people relate to
other groups and to other groups and to
society as a whole society as a whole

GREEN GREEN
GUERILLA COMPROMISES

Weak interaction between politics and

green technology
Resumé
DK2050 is a unique scenario project which is
managed by the Danish Architecture Centre.
The project gathers representatives from
10 larger and smaller municipalities, four
ministries, three regions, funds and private
businesses to further innovative thinking and
set up concrete scenarios for how we can live
in cities and city regions in the future.
DK2050 relates to the possible futures and
directions in which Danish cities and regions
can direct themselves towards in order to
organize healthy and sustainable cities. Which
selections and rejections will cities and regions
have to make in light of the green transition
with the need to reduce CO2 emissions through
to 2050?
The recurring question for the scenario
development process has been:
Which development trends have an effect on
the green transition of Danish municipalities
through to 2050?
The purpose of developing scenarios is not
to deliver one precise picture of the future
but to stimulate reflection and consideration
about what might be the central elements and
variables in the development, which might
affect and shape this future. The purpose of the
scenario development process is to motivate
us to expand our thinking about some of the
circumstances affecting the cities, society
and green transition in a broader sense. The
goal is to further a lively, inspiring and fruitful
discussion about all the possibilities and
challenges that can shape the future for the
cities and the green transition of society over
the next 35 years.
At three camps with the participation of more
than 100 representatives from the above
institutions, a string of trends and changes in
society and the economy have been identified.
These have been the object of in-depth
analysis, tests, gradation and description in
the scenario teams of DAMVAD and Kairos
Future complemented by valuable input and
commentaries from experts within energy,
transport, geography and urban development
in a scientific panel and at the Danish
Architecture Centre. On the background of this
the identified trends have been complemented
and adjusted or deselected. The result is a list
of definite trends and a list with uncertainties
that have consequences for differences in the
development directions in the four developed
scenarios. The uncertainties are particularly
interesting to keep working on for the project
because they are the ones that can give
different development directions shaped by
their different outcomes.
Two uncertainties stand out from this process
as particularly important. Firstly it is uncertain
to which degree collective or individual values
will dominate. Secondly it is an important
uncertainty whether the interaction between
political action and green technology will
work or not. On the basis of the two strategic
uncertainty discussions we have developed
four different scenarios with each making up
a possible description of Denmark in 2050.
The four scenarios and the overall strategic
uncertainties are best illustrated in a scenario
cross shown on the previous Side.
5
 Green state
The first scenario we have chosen to call
Green state. Here we describe how in 2050
the state has had a revival and taken control
of green transition. The strong role of the
state is supported by the return in society
of collective values. The Danes vote left and
green and prioritise collective green solutions
which have been initiated and implemented
by public players and financed through the
common tax and charge system. There is a
strong interaction between the state’s policies
and the green technological development and
implementation.
The international cooperation in the EU, UN
and in the Nordic countries is permeated by
the same collective currents, albeit with some
regional variations. Climate challenges and
green transitions are high on the political
agenda and there is a large consensus amongst
the world’s advanced economies to follow
and common goals for CO2 reductions and
energy optimisation. The frames are binding.
Most countries, with Russia as an important
exception, have signed treaties binding them to
reduce their CO2 emissions year by year.
There is generally a low conflict level
internationally. However, there are regional
tensions and at times armed conflicts, both
in Africa and Eastern Europe where there are
countries with large ethnic minorities. The
conflicts largely only involve local parties.
The USA, EU, Russia, China and India do not
interfere in the conflicts. The tensions between
Russia and the EU concerning Crimea and
Ukraine in the 2010s incited a hitherto unseen
agreement between the EU countries to free
themselves from the dependency of gas from
Russia and focus on renewable energy sources.
6 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
Denmark and the largest Danish cities are
not just participating in but are leading the
international climate cooperation.
In 2050 China and India have become
economic growth and power centres. China’s
GDP is double that of the USA’s in 2050. The
two countries have almost got earlier problems
of poverty, inequality, pollution and corruption
under control. The enormous Chinese and
Indian middle classes drive the demand
and development in mega metropoles. This
furthers innovation and the green transition in
the world stems from China in 2050. Denmark
and the other Western economies heavily
orientate themselves towards these countries.
The climate is high on the agenda in Asia.
Already in 2040 China phased out carbon
energy and focused primarily on sun, water
and wind energy as primary energy sources. It
is also here, in the new Asian mega metropoles
that the new efficient city solutions within
construction, energy, waste and transport are
developed and tested. Quickly afterwards
they are introduced in cities in other parts of
the world.
For the same reason CO2 reduction and green
transition is also high on the national Danish
agenda. The state and the collective are again
in control but now together with the strong
focus on CO2 reduction, renewable energy and
other green transition. Thereby there is also a
prioritisation of energy efficient solutions and
more concentrated population development. As
a consequence, in 2050 Denmark has managed
to become 100% independent of fossil fuels
and has instead become 100% carbon-neutral
and based on renewable energy. This has
further pushed urbanisation and growth in the
four largest city regions, Copenhagen, Aarhus,
Odense and Aalborg.
Amongst the medium-sized cities (the classic
market towns) some manage well and some
less well. The medium-sized cities doing well
are those that are functionally linked to the four
large cities’ employment market and business
development. The small towns and local
communities are generally not prioritised, they
have lost their significance, and the development
has stagnated, with a very few exceptions. The
green transition ambition is generally high
across the cities. The circular economy and the
green GDP goal has become a reality.
Citizens and businesses prioritise green lifestyle,
the climate adaptation is proactive and there
is a high degree of central recycling. There is
green and tall construction. The building mass is
concentrated and becomes more homogenous.
The energy supply for homes and businesses
is based on cross-national large-scale solutions
with a high level of renewable energy and with a
prioritisation of wind and biomass as sources of
supply in particular.
There has been a similar tendency for the
business community to have become more
concentrated. Big business is localised in and
around the largest city regions or in some
cases in the medium-sized cities which are
functionally linked to the larger cities.
Green networks
In the second scenario, Green networks, the
city and societal development in Denmark in
2050 are permeated by values and behaviour
saluting the individual freedom of choice. The
technological development and digitalisation are
supported by ambitious goals of green transition
with a focus on networksing, integration and
functionality across many different green
solutions. Technologies have been likewise
strengthened the opportunities for citizens and
businesses individually and locally to have great
autonomy in making their own choices.
There is an absence of great cross-national
decisions about physical infrastructure which
can link the major cities and the medium-
sized cities in larger functioning regions. But
players and systems are tied together digitally.
There are large differences between the choice
of solutions and how well the cities have
succeeded in maintaining and strengthening
their attractiveness and development ability in
competition with other cities.
Internationally, climate is high on the agenda.
The cooperation in the EU and internationally
happens from common and ambitious goals
for reduction of CO2 emissions and energy
optimisation. But the frames are not binding.
Countries, cities, businesses and citizens have
the opportunity to choose different roads
to green transition based on technological
opportunities, differences in the market and
different traditions, cultures and prospects.
Internationally, several countries and most of
all China have invested enormous resources in
becoming a leader in the field of research and
innovation when it comes to green technologies.
China’s dominating position in 2050 has
great significance for the success of Danish
businesses in the field of cleantech. Building on
the ambitious Danish ventures on green clusters
and the export of green technology in the 10s
and 20s, Danish businesses have had plenty
of time to focus on the development of Danish
strengths on the Chinese market. Thus they are
prepared for the fact that standards and the
direction of the development are largely set by
the Asian market in 2050. The level of conflict
is low internationally. regional conflicts and and
7
wars have become fewer and do not occupy our
minds or the climate agenda.
In Denmark, accordingly, the climate is high
on the agenda. The less binding international
framework is a good match for the Danish
political self-understanding where the particular
role of the state is to unite the nation around
the common goals and let the market and the
citizens deliver and pick solutions that live up
to the overall goals. A green GDP and a circular
economy have been implemented and it is filled
out by a green lifestyle and behaviour amongst
citizens and businesses.
There is a large degree of sorting and recycling
in the area of waste. The energy supply is
diverse but with a high level of renewable
energy. Construction is green, not very tall and
very diverse. The most important thing is that
the new and modified buildings work efficiently
when it comes to energy and are integrated in a
smart way into the ecosystem of the large city.
Urbanisation is roaring ahead. The ambitious
goals for green transition are widely agreed
upon however. There are, though, large
variations and spatial possibilities for the
different kinds of development in cities. Some
will grow vigorously, others will stall and recede.
The liberal frame-setting gives the best
conditions for growth for the four largest
cities and for the small towns. The innovative
possibilities and the market development
is best filled out by the large cities with
their critical mass of innovative businesses,
knowledge institutions and talent. The larger,
the better. Copenhagen and Aarhus are
absolute growth centres. After them the growth
gathers around Odense and Aalborg.
8 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
The development conditions for the small towns
are also good, but dependent on their specific
historical advantages, unique amenity value
and local activists. The logic is that it does not
take a lot to create a success in a small town
under the existing conditions. With these free
boundaries, bottom-up solutions thrive as well
as the individual choices in the small cities that
have the will to do so.
On the other hand many of the medium-sized
town (the traditional market towns) have had
difficulties when it comes to growth in 2050.
With the absence of state interference and
cross-national solutions the the medium-sized
towns are not functionally well linked to the
largest cities and they lack the critical mass of
innovative businesses, knowledge institutions
and talent. At the same time citizens and
businesses expect that the cities can deliver
when it comes to the common goals about
about green transition and attractiveness that
have been expressed overall, even though the
resources for this are not adequate. You could
say that the medium-sized towns are caught in
being too small to be able to take advantage of
the free boundaries to choose their own efficient
solutions and approaches to green transition
and at the same time they are too large to
have the possibilities for local amenity value,
quality of life, local activists etc, that some of the
smallest towns have. There are, however, a few
exceptions amongst the smallest towns that do
well, either because they succeed in focusing on
being unique or because they are very close to a
large city, for instance Høje Taastrup.
The logic is the same for the business
community as for the cities. In this market the
larger businesses have all the preconditions
for taking advantage of the free boundaries
and the more unobtrusive state. The very
small ones are also thriving because their
costs are lower and they face fewer demands.
The medium-sized ones have a hard time
competing with big business and small
business. The business locations happen
primarily in and around the largest cities where
talent and knowledge institutions are localised
with a certain critical mass.
Green guerilla
The third scenario we have named Green
guerilla. In this scenario the green transition in
Denmark is characterised by individual market
players and citizens’ groups take responsibility
themselves and define goals and boundaries.
There is a lack of governmental control and
common overview and coordination. The result
is an enormous variation with thousands of
larger and smaller local projects, each making a
difference, but they are not integrated or related
to anything other than the realisation of their
own goals.
The backdrop for this market dominated
bottom-up approach to green transition is
the prolonged inability to act of the political
system. This both internationally, in the EU and
in Denmark. On the international agenda and in
the EU the climate problem is only discussed
bi-annually and often in connection with how to
react to how to mitigate the consequences of
less stable weather and more climate refugees.
The discussions do not lead to a consensus
on common goals or any kinds of binding
agreements. At the same time the international
agenda is characterised by a high level of
conflict with a string of regional conflicts in
Eastern europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa,
engaging Russia, the EU, China and the USA.   but not always green. The energy supply is
In a world without goals and means for a green
transition and with a focus on other problems
Denmark as a small country does not have
many opportunities to act alone and be more
ambitious than its surroundings. And it is not
the approach Danish politicians have chosen
either. The green leader role of the state phases
out during the 20s and in 2050 lacks both focus
and the ability to act. This has a direct rub-off
effect on business investments and innovation
which start avoiding the cleantech sector. This
means that green technology is not on the list
of the largest Danish export groups in 2050
despite the fact that there is a considerable
demand for green solutions from large city
development projects in countries such as
China, India, Brazil and many of the African
growth economies.
A green GDP and the circular economy are still
discussed but there is no political will to go in
this direction for Denmark as a whole.
The largest cities drive growth but it is not
followed up by high ambitions for green
transition. Congestion, lack of housing, water,
energy and other challenges linked to the
population growth in the largest cities are
sought solved locally and without any large
investments in infrastructure, construction,
water, waste or energy supply. This lessens the
population growth and the economic growth in
business that cannot be absorbed as a result
of the lack of systems thinking in the green
transition. The technological development is
likewise more anarchic and the spread and use
in and outside of Denmark is heterogenous.
Construction is scattered and very varied
large-scale and outdated with a low level
9
 for renewable energy as a result of the
lack of public ambitions. However, it has
created a breeding ground for a smouldering
disaffectation in the shape of independent
initiatives from both the occasional large
businesses and dynamic citizens’ groups.
Special recycling plants linked up to large
businesses locally and small windmills and solar
cells are examples of initiatives coming up from
below. But this happens with no connection
to the existing public energy system and
without governmental funding or economic
incentives. They are solely carried by the wish
amongst the players of the individual projects
of making a difference for the climate and the
environment locally.
Without cross-national solutions in the
transport and energy area the medium-sized
cities are cut off from the growth in the largest
cities and generally lose their significance.
Many of the local initiatives take place in the
progressive quarters in the large cities with
a large proportion of youth and resourceful
talents or in small towns with great amenity
value, local activists and small businesses that
can gather interest and funds for their projects.
The medium-sized cities, the classic market
towns find it hard to compete with both the
large and the small ones and are therefore
seriously hard-pressed.
Green compromises
Finally we have as the fourth scenario described
a society we call Green compromises. Here,
the state is in a strong position in 2050 and is
supported by the return of collective values in
society. The Danes do not see CO2 emissions
and climate changes as a part of the threat
scenario. Instead several decades with low
growth, gradual wealth and welfare reductions
10
and a generally rising international level of
conflict made the Danes come together around
a strong state and cross-national and collective
solutions that prioritise economic development
and growth higher than green transition. The
same trends and patterns can be seen in most
other EU and OECD countries.
Global NGOs attempted again and again to
get the lack of green transition on the agenda
but with no luck since new international and
geopolitical conflicts dominated. The violence
in Russia and Eastern Europe, which began
with Russia’s annexation of the Crimean
Peninsula and the unrest in Ukraine in 2014,
continued long into the 2020s. Not until 2024
was an agenda set for negotiations and political
stability between Russia, the EU and the USA.
As a result of “the Russian crisis” a large
wish arose in most EU countries to become
independent of gas from Russia. As a
consequence the demand for fossil fuels
energy rose and Denmark once again began
investing heavily in extraction. The same
tendency for a new fossil fuel strategy was seen
in other Western countries and the USA was
seen as a model example with its successful
extraction of shale gas.
At the same time the years from 2015–2040
were heavily marked by more and more global
and international crises and conflicts. Several
of these were partly the result of the climate
changes creating migrations and floods of
refugees as well as fights for resources since
large areas were uninhabitable. The reactions
on this in Denmark and other more ‘climate
lucky’ countries was economic support for
the affected areas and help for building up
an emergency preparedness in the countries
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
receiving the refugees. the development is
not seen to be linked politically with climate
changes caused by humans. Other challenges
are considered more important.
With a strong state as well as cross-national
and collective solutions prioritising economic
development in the entire country there is
no focus on green transition. Still, in 2050
Denmark has achieved reducing CO2 emissions
and make itself partly independent of fossil
fuels. This is due to the continued development
and implementation of central energy systems
for the larger cities based on amongst other
things district heating, natural gas, central
combined heat/power stations, windmills on
land and at sea, large-scale solar power and
municipal waste systems.
Now there is a focus on linking the medium-
sized cities on the capital, Aarhus, Odense and
Aalborg so that the possibilities for growth can
reach the whole country. The consequence is
that the urbanisation trend, with the hitherto
large migration to and the growth of the
largest cities loses some of its power. It is not
enough to stop the urbanisation, however.
Thus, the largest cities continue to grow, but
the emigration from t they in turn get migrants
from the small towns which generally recede.
The low ambitions for green transition amongst
politicians is in accordance with the wishes
of the majority of the population in 2050.
Many new buildings are constructed and
construction is scattered, varied and rarely
green. The energy supply is large-scale. The
focus continues to be on burning fossil fuels
and on district heating with a low level of
recycling and renewable energy. The transport
is probably both as public transport and cross-
national but it does not have any advantages
for private car use. Hybrid cars are normal but
the electric car has not had the breakthrough
that was hoped for in the 10s. Danish business
particularly consists of many small businesses
and a few very big ones. They are localised
all over the country but with a tendency to
concentrate in the largest city regions around
the capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.
We have chosen to supply the four scenarios
with data and outlines of important
developments up until today, forecasts and
projections of dates, timelines with possible
important events as well as literature studies
describing the scientific debate in the area.
In continuation of the scenario descriptions
we have tentatively outlined a series of
central strategic challenges and dilemmas in
connection with the choices Danish cities must
make to carry out the green transition.
Of course the strategic changes are very
much revolved about city development and
green transition, but just as much about the
design of the tax and charge system, energy
supply, technology choices, funding of the
welfare state, demography, the adaptation
and competitive power of businesses, types
of transport and the behaviour of citizens and
consumers.
11
1
1. Introduction
Cities have always played a considerable
role in the change of society. But today the
concentration of human resourced, businesses
as well as knowledge and educational institutions
make the cities natural centres for development
more than ever before. This goes for all areas,
not least when it comes to the green transition
of Danish society. The strong trends that have
left their mark on the development of the cities
when it comes to green transition are relatively
easy to read now and in retrospect. This is not
least the case for the heavy urbanisation, where
settlement and growth are concentrated more
and more around the largest cities, the increased
transport and mobility between the city centres
and the technological and digital development
which to a larger and larger degree shapes the
interaction between people in the modern cities.
However, the future is a different and very
uncertain story. We can assume that values will
change but we know very little about how this
will affect the development and the direction
of the change. Similarly the collective political
ability to act can be assumed to be challenged
but how and how much we do not know. We
can also assume that the future will contain
great technological changes but in what areas
and how it will affect us is also uncertain. The
uncertainties are great and many.
The purpose of this project is to study how
the future for Danish cities and the green
transition can unfold over the next 35 years.
In the project DK2050 we develop scenarios
describing possible directions for development
making it possible to identify how the Danish
cities and Denmark will look in the light of the
green transition with reduction of CO2 emissions
towards 2050.
The recurrent question for the scenario
process has been:
Which development trends affect the
green transition of Danish municipalities
up until 2050?
The purpose of developing scenarios is not to
deliver one particular picture of the future but
to stimulate reflection about what could be the
central elements and variables in the evelopment
that can affect and shape this future.
The purpose of the scenario development
process is to motivate us to expand our thinking
about some of the conditions that affect the
cities, society and the green transition in a
broader sense. The goal is to further a lively,
inspiring and productive discussion about every
possibility and challenge that may shape the
future for the green transition of the cities and
society over the next 35 years.
Through discussions on day-long camps and
workshops with the participation of more than
150 representatives from smaller and larger
Danish cities, regions, ministries and private
funds and businesses and through the obtaining
of international knowledge and inspiration
and in-depth analyses of trends, all has been
distilled into four possible scenarios. They
represent different directions of development
for the Danish cities and Danish society as a
whole in light of the green transition. All four
scenarios identify possibilities and risks linked
with the societal development that the cities
must operate in. This goes for transport systems
and mobility, energy and environment, business
community and growth as well as the citizens’
life in the city.
13
 This is what gives the scenario development
process value. The scenarios are meant to
make it possible for the cities to plan their
green transition with a starting point in realistic
but also challenging ideas about possibilities
and threats in the future. Strategies for the
future are only strong if they can handle and
understand the considerable uncertainties that
can affect the development.
The cities as economic engines
for growth
The cities of the world have steadily assumed
a more central role in the global economy.
Countless analyses show that cities are
important for economic growth because they
offer a good framework for development by
acting as meeting places for people, businesses
and economic activity1.
Urbanisation and the appearance of mega
metropoles have led to over 50% of the world’s
population living in cities today. At the same
time it is significant the cities are drivers of
growth and it is estimated that 80% of the
world’s GDP is created in cities and all of 50%
in the 380 largest cities in the Western part of
the world.
1. See e.g. Van den Berg & Van Winden. (2004). Cities
in the knowledge economy. Report to the Ministry of the
Interior and Kingdom Relations; OECD. (2001). Cities and
Regions in the New Learning Economy; OECD. (2006).
Competitive Cities in the Global Economy.
2. Hansen, H. K. & Winther, L. (2010a) The spatial
division of talent in city regions: location dynamics
of business services in Copenhagen, Tijdschrift voor
Economische en Sociale Geografie, 101: 55–72.
14
This is also the case in Denmark where regions
with large cities have dominated the economic
growth and the creation of jobs through the
last decades2, while in small and medium-sized
cities outside of these growth areas have
fought with stagnation or falling employment3.
At the same time the competition to attract
economic activity to the cities in the shape
investments, businesses, labour, tourists
and new citizens has intensified at the same
speed that the state has passed parts of the
responsibility for the municipal and regional
development to the cities themselves.
This calls for new structures for competition,
cooperation and development when the
cities must handle the economic and social
development to a much larger extent4.
The green transition of the cities
A well-functioning city is also a city that
manages to adapt to possibilities and changes
in the global knowledge economy and whose
performance builds on continuous competition
advantages. this means that the growth
strategies for cities must be long-term and
take into consideration the development in the
global knowledge economy.
3. Andersen & Winther, 2010; Hansen, H.K. & Winther,
L. (2012a) The Urban Turn: Cities, talent and knowledge in
Denmark. Aarhus: Aarhus University Press.
4. Andersen, H.T., Samson, J. & Winther, L. (2010)
Kunsten at sælge et sted – stedsidentitet og branding,
Samfundsøkonomen, december 2010(6): 28–32.
5. Andersen, H.T. & Winther, L. (2010) Crisis in the
Resurgent City? The Rise of Copenhagen, International
Journal of Urban and Regional Re-search, 34(3): 693–700.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
It is well-documented that the present way that
humans live is not sustainable in consideration
of the pressure it puts on the resources of
the earth (read more about this in chapter
5). The urgent problem combined with the
rising autonomy of the cities can be viewed
as a unique opportunity for the cities to take
the forefront and create the green city of the
future. The city as a rising force can amongst
other places be seen in the creation of the city
cooperation C40.
The challenge is tangible. There are many
parameters at stake and while the cities
can influence some of them others are less
susceptible to influence. But the cities do
undoubtedly have a historic opening for taking
the challenge and strategically reform the
cities in terms of both infrastructure, business
environment and amenity value for the citizens.
Here political decisions and the implementation
of these play a considerable part since the
change towards a society independent of
fossil fuels requires public regulation. Basically
because ’the market’ is not on its own accord
capable of pricing the value of lasting climate
changed, increased security of supply etc.
Here, the green transition can be the key to
the cities being able to create new jobs when
investments are made in new infrastructure
and to support new competitive industries.
For instance the German government has
estimated that the global green tech markets
look to be more than doubled to 4,400 billion
Euros in 2025.
A green transition has many positive aspects
for the cities. Apart from a green energy supply
this also includes attracting new knowledge
intensive industries, cleaner air, green areas
and other amenity values.
In order to realise such a strategy, brave, long-
term political decisions are needed for the
cities. Brave because in some areas they will
break away from traditional approaches and
methods. Long-term because the change is
long-term and permanent.
It is this green, long-term growth strategy and
change the developed scenarios in this project
are meant to support.
15
2
2. The scenario method
behind DK2050
”Scenarios are memories from the
future”
– David Ingvar
The neurophysiologist David Ingvar believed
that as soon as we thought of a future world,
memory tracks were created in the brain. So if
the imagined future was to happen we would
“remember” as we had previously experienced it
in reality exactly like it is with real events.
Scenarios work exactly like that. They create
notions of future incidents by us “remembering”
them. When they happen we understand what
is wanted from us and we can act appropriately.
Thereby scenarios become a fundamental tool.
2.1 SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT AS
A METHOD
The purpose of scenarios is not to predict the
future but to examine possible developments in
order to help decision-makers in the planning
of what today may seem “unthinkable”. Future
scenarios are about identifying present
developments and find out what they mean to
our society. The scenarios are an important part
of the foundation for discussions and innovation
in our modern society. Thereby scenarios give
us the possibility to move strategic discussions
away from an immediate and present focus to
a more distant future and a focus on the larger
perspectives.
The scenarios in DK2050 comprise different
stories about futures that may be and which
in a thought-provoking way throws new light
on the strategic decisions we are facing. Every
scenario shows a window of possibilities for
what might happen and the scenarios are good
if they provoke the reader to think productively
and in a new way about the challenges that
have to be faced in a near future. Here the
scenarios offer a common language and a
common starting point for a discussion of the
possibilities and challenges of the future.
In order to make the green transition of Danish
society possible several experts have pointed
to the necessity of long-term strategies (i.e.
the Climate Commission, 2011). This makes
scenarios a well-chosen method that contribute
with knowledge to the strategic work of the
decision-makers when we look closer at the
green transition in the cities and Denmark.
The four scenarios in this publication comprise
different portraits of a possible future world.
The scenarios are meant to be a starting point
for discussions and at the same time it is up to
the individual reader or organisation to decide
which scenario provides an attractive future
for Denmark to live in. The scenarios have not
been written with the thought to make ’good’
or ’less good’ scenarios for Denmark’s future.
That depends on your preferences.
2.2 TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTIES
We divide the world into three parts: the
surrounding world, the nearby world and the
inside world, as illustrated in figure 2.1.
The transitions – trends and uncertainties –
that are the most important can be found in
the surrounding world. We are talking about
long-term changes that we have no impact
on but that we have to respond to. Some of
these can be estimated to be certain in the
sense that we can say with great certainty how
they will develop until 2050. Examples of this
are the the world’s population extrapolation,
climate changes etc. These ”safe” udviklinger
developments we call ”trends”.
Other changes are much harder to predict.
These changes until 2050 are estimated to
be very uncertain.
17
 This is for instance the case for human
values, political organisation, the development
of industries etc. These changes we call
”uncertainties” and some of them are of great
strategic significance and are estimated to
be ”strategic uncertainties”. The scenarios,
the images of the future, are comprised of a
combination of trends and uncertainties.
The safe trends are deemed safe towards
2050. They comprise the foundation for a
future development. For example a warmer
climate comprises a safe trend and therefore
this trend is present in all scenarios. There may
be a difference in the details concerning how
much warmer climate the individual scenario
represents.
The uncertainties, however, can be developed
completely differently in the different scenarios.
The chosen strategic uncertainties comprise the
foundation for the scenarios. Other uncertainties
may develop in different directions depending
on how they are related to the strategic
uncertainties.
FIGURE 2.1
Surrounding world – nearby world – inside world
Source: Kairos Future 2014
Surrounding world
Media
Rules
Needs
Distribution
Ecology,
environment
& health EU
Substitute
Technology
Government and
& science Parliament
18
2.3 STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIES
In this project we have based the scenarios on
a ’traditional’ method which involves searching
for the most important factors that may
impact our problem and from those factors we
identify two particularly important ’strategic
uncertainties’ on which we have based our
scenario matrix. The matrix has been described
in literature, see e.g. Heijden (1996) or Lindgren
& Bandhold (2009).
The strategic uncertainties are the basis
for the scenarios – they shape and control
how we interpret possible scenarios towards
the future. The challenge in this scenario
methodology is to find the most suitable
strategic uncertainties. These have to be of
great strategic significance for the problem
and they must be real uncertainties. Also, the
strategic uncertainties must be independent
from one another. Naturally there may be
several different strategic uncertainties and we
have picked the ones that the scenario team
estimated were the most important ones.
Economy &
market
Politics
Nearby world Citizens
Cooperation
Inside world partners
Institutions
Own organisation (structure)
and questions Suppliers
Businesses Social &
lifestyles
Authorities
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
 The chosen strategic uncertainties are
presented in axis in a ’scenario cross’ where
the endpoints of the axis comprise the
extreme possible outcomes of the respective
uncertainties. Therefore each scenario
comprises a combination of the two extreme
outcomes as reflected in the figure below.
FIGURE 2.2
Scenario cross
Uncertainty Y
Outcome Y1
Scenario Scenario
B A
Uncertainty X Uncertainty X
Outcome X1 Outcome X1
Scenario Scenario
C D
Uncertainty Y
Outcome Y2
Source: DAMVAD and Kairos Future 2014
The starting point for scenario A in the figure is
comprised by the fact that X1 and Y1 happen at
the same time while scenario B is based on the
combined outcome of X2 and Y1. Scenarios C
and D are achieved the same way.
2.4 THE PROBLEM
The main question of the project, which
has been decisive in the search for trends,
uncertainties and other factors, is:
Which development trends affect the green
transition of the Danish municipalities up
until 2050?
The question is used as a the common thread
throughout the whole project.
2.5 INTERACTIVE, ITERATIVE,
QUALITATIVE
The scenario process in this project is built
on interaction and participation. By inviting
and involving people from several Danish
municipalities, regions and ministries we have
created a broad starting point for the study of
the future and for understanding what really
affects the problem.
The scenarios are primarily qualitative but in
order to strengthen the story we have added
quantitative data indicating the imagined levels
in different years in the future. Even though a
lot of this data is prognoses it is used here to
illustrate the respective scenarios. The scenario
in itself is no prognosis
Apart from this we have solid fact and data
material showing the positions up until 2014.
The process
Through ”trendspotting” at Camp 0 participants
from several Danish municipalities, regions and
ministries searched for trends and factors in the
surrounding world.
In the scenario team, a smaller analysis group,
this material was gathered and analysed.
The scenario team identified two strategic
uncertainties (see paragraph 5.7) and from this
developed a matrix with four scenarios (see
paragraph 6).
Our analyses and input from the participants
at Camp 0 have contributed to create a list of
criteria describing the decisive functions and
division lines for each scenario (see paragraph
8). each scenario is based on the content of
this criteria list.
For this purpose we have searched statistics
and data in different areas such as transport,
energy, environment etc.
19
 2.6 THE DEMARCATION OF
THE SCENARIOS
Five themes affecting the green future
of the cities
A string of factors play a part for the green
transition in the cities. It could be anything
from new technologies, a change in consumer
behaviour, public regulation of resources etc.
The spectrum is broad.
The choice of themes partly builds on the
input we got from the participating partners in
the project in connection with the camps and
workshops and on the basis of the review of
national and international literature in the field
(see Literature list).
In order to make the themes concrete, in the
following we will describe in short in which
criteria each theme takes its starting point.

When we look towards a Denmark in 2050 Citizens and society

it is therefore also improbable to involve all
the factors that affect the development of
the cities. It is, however, possible to focus on
chosen factors that are critical to our transition
to a green society which is the purpose of this
scenario publication.
Therefore we have focused on five themes
whose significance for the green transition
in the cities is fundamental and which
will be recurring for the report structure.
These themes will create the frame for the
presentation of each of the four scenarios.
The five themes are:
• Citizens and society
• Energy and climate
• Environment
• Business and economy
• Transport and mobility
Green lifestyle and preferences
Our future (green) behaviour has great signifi-
cance for the design of the cities. Our lifestyle
and preferences can for the most part of the
population become a pronounced focus or it
can be pushed to the background by other
preferences.
Construction for housing and businesses
Buildings are long-term investments that
stand for many years and have great
influence on our energy consumption. Thus,
extensive renovation of existing buildings
and the construction of new buildings has
extensive consequences on how our cities
become energy efficient and how they appear
aesthetically.

FIGURE 2.3
The course of the project

Data
Camp 0 collection,
Camp 1 Processing Camp 2 Processing
Identification Mayoral analysis Expert analysis
interviews,
of trends debate & report input & report
scenario
drafts

20 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

Energy and climate
Energy supply
In order to undertake a green transition of the
cities towards 2050, marked changes in our
energy supply must take place. The energy
supply may be structured in a spectrum from
central large-scale solutions to fragmented
solutions.
Renewable energy
The share of renewable energy in our energy
supply is naturally a decisive parameter for
whether the green transitions of the cities will
prove a success towards 2050.
Environment
Waste/resources
Our ability to utilise waste and recycle our
resources are central in a world with a growing
population and limited resources. Here the cities
play an important role since the majority of the
population will live in cities in 2050.
Business and economy
Business structure
The business community plays an important
role for the green transition since this is
where the most considerable part of the CO2
emissions come from.
Business localisation
The localisation of the business community
is closely connected to the localisation of the
work force.
Green economy
The transition to an economy driven by green
services and products is fundamental for
a green transition becoming a reality. The
cities can impact this in many parameters,
for instance through purchase policies and
regulations.
Traffic and mobility
Collective vs. individual
Our transport systems have great impact on
the mobility of the citizens and thereby also on
the job market and where people live.
Cross-national vs. regional/local
It has great significance whether the
infrastructure is planned with cross-national
solutions or more regionally and locally.
City typologies
Danish cities have different prerequisites for
their development towards 2050. Therefore it
is vital that we differentiate between different
types of cities when we look ahead.
There is no harmonised definition of a city but
a lot of analyses have been made in the last few
years focusing on what characterises a city or city
area/city region which we prefer to call it here.
In connection with The City Regions Project
from 2011 drawn up by DAMVAD, a city region
was defined as the total city area comprised
by a centre municipality and the surrounding
area around the city. The analysis operates with
the concept of functional city regions because
they, as opposed to administrative municipal
borders, draw up a more precise image of a city.
The functional city region is where growth is
created. In this context, administrative borders
lose their significance.
OECD has worked to develop a general
definition and method of calculation when it
comes to city regions. OECD views two cities
as attached if more than 15% of the population
in one city commutes to another city, including
towns from the surrounding area being
attached to the centre city.
21
 Here, city regions are city areas with less than
200,000 inhabitants. This means that a large
proportion of the Danish city areas fall outside
of OECD’s definition.
Danish city regions can also be demarcated
in relation to commuting time to and from the
main city. Here a city region is defined by up
to one hour of commuting time. Reports on a
national basis have often used commuting time
as a central factor in the physical planning.
Reports on commuting flows have amongst
other things been a part of creating what we
today call “the Eastern Jutland city stretch”.
The networks of European Metropolitan
Regions and Areas (METREX) has set up the
following characteristics for city regions:
• Large concentration of workforce,
businesses and institutions
• A concentration of knowledge intensive
businesses, research and educational
institutions
• Networks and clusters between
specialised businesses
• A growing critical mass driving job
opportunities, professional and social
inclusion and a higher standard of living
• Investment in soft localisation conditions
such as culture and quality of life
In England they have a well-developed focus on
functional city regions such as these, including
their interaction with the surrounding area. In
2012 centre for cities mapped 31 capitals and
124 other large cities in Europe to show the
significance of cities.
22
The conclusion of the analysis is that
decentralisation and spreading together with
a strong group of larger cities in a country
can contribute to create strong economic
growth. This means that there must be a
balance between investment in capitals and
a country’s larger cities and that there should
be a possibility to link more remote areas
to a positive development in order for the
whole country to be able to contribute to the
economic growth.
In OECD’s publication ”Redefining ’urban’: A
New Way to Measure Metropolitan Areas”
we only find Copenhagen, Aarhus, Aalborg
and Odense as so-called Danish economic
functional city regions characterised by having
a densely populated city core and surrounding
areas (hinterlands) where the job market is
strongly integrated with the city core.
OECD differentiates between four size
categories.
1. Small city regions: between 50,000 and
200,000 inhabitants
2. Medium-sized regions: between 200,000
and 500,000 inhabitants
3. Metropole regions: between 500,000 and
1.5 million inhabitants
4. Large metropole regions: with over
1.5 million inhabitants
With a starting point in the above and with
respect for a Danish context and geography we
have chosen to work with three types of Danish
city areas in which the majority of Danish cities
can be categorised:
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
The large city region
Comprises: The capital  (inc. Høje Taastrup),
Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg

There are functional city regions characterised

by having a densely populated city core and
surrounding areas where the job market is
strongly integrated with the city core. Large
city regions are also characterised by having a
large diversity and international links.

Medium-sized city regions/market towns

Comprises: Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart,
Kalundborg, Ringkjøbing-Skjern

These are small city regions with 50,000–

200,000 inhabitants. These are often called
second-tier cities.

Small city areas

Small Danish towns with less than 50,000
inhabitants.

In the scenarios these three types of cities will

be used to mirror the Danish cities as closely
as possible.

For each city type in each scenario we look at

the degree of growth, green transition ambition
and geographical role (significance in the
geography).

23
3
3. Denmark then and now –
the starting point for the future
How are things with the green transition in
society and the business community and how
has the development been up until now? This
is important to know in order to understand
the starting point for the scenarios for the
future development of the cities and the green
transition in Denmark.
In the following this starting point for the
future is described by first laying out the most
important changes in society that since the
1960s have had an impact on for society today
and possibilities for green transition. Afterwards
we put the development into numbers within
the five main themes estimated to be essential
in order to understand the green transition in
society and which are therefore also recurring
for the scenario analysis, namely:
1) Citizens and society
2) Energy and climate
3) Environment
4) Business and economy
5) Transport and mobility
The starting point for the future
Which starting point does that give for the
future then? Where do we stand today with
the development that has happened up until
now? With all the respect for the big books
being written about the society of today you
have to be careful commenting on the politics
performed today, and since this is merely a
scenrário project we will only, in short, lay
out where we believe the society and green
transition of today is overall and in connection
with the two axes defining the scenarios. With
this the reader can then make up his or her
own mind and read the following scenario
descriptions in this picture.
The historical events, actions and reforms
make up a picture of Denmark as a country
operating with often very ambitious goals and
plans combined with a more liberal bottom-
up approach to how to reach those goals.
Danish politicians have a historical ability
to decide on large reforms and initiatives of
significance for city development and green
transition no matter whether it concerns
infrastructure, energy systems, educational
reforms, business initiatives etc. This historical
ability to support the green technological
development has generally also been high
in Denmark throughout recent decades. In
several of our neighbouring countries, which
are characterised by greater decision inertia,
they admire this collective ability to make
bigger decisions.
However, in Denmark as well, there are
historically several examples that even large
political decisions across the political spectrum
are changed when a new government comes
into power and that determination only
becomes really powerful when there is truly
a negative development or crisis demanding
action. However, Danish economy is also,
as opposed to our neighbouring countries,
characterised by a steeper decline or rising
growth curves, or crises and ascents, if you
prefer. Also, Denmark is historically well-known
for a certain degree of uprising from below, e.g.
with the first large windmill built by Tvind and
Christiania as the best-known historical “Green
guerilla” initiative. For these reasons we place
’Denmark in the year 2014’ as shown on the
next page.
25
 Strong interaction between
politics and green technology 1960s: modern times on their way
üü Continued expansion of the capital area
and motorway extension building on the
so-called ’finger plan’ from 1947
üü Workers move from the cities to the suburbs
Individual GREEN GREEN Collective üü Entry of the detached house and
values and DK 2014
NETWORKS STATE values and
lifestyles lifestyles suburban life
dominate dominate üü Markedly increased job frequency (women)
how people relate to how people relate to
other groups and to other groups and to üü Social housing appears
society as a whole society as a whole
üü Long-term planning begins with National
GREEN GREEN
GUERILLA COMPROMISES üü Comprehensive Plan Committee and the
Zone Plan
Weak interaction between üü Territorial division of the North Sea 1965
politics and green technology üü Monopoly/sole concession is given for
researching and extraction of hydrocarbon
in the Danish underground in 1962
3.1 THE STORY ABOUT THE GREEN üü Awareness of the environmental question
TRANSITION is rising because of Rachel Carson’s book
In analysing the different development roads of “Silent Spring” from 1962
the future it can be interesting to look back on
the development that came before the society 1970s: modern society is established
we have today. What large events, reforms and üü Denmark established the first Ministry for
societal changes helped shape the solutions the Environment in the world (1971)
and behaviour we see today? üü First international climate conference
(Stockholm 1972)
When looking back you will see that 35 years, üü Cooperative housing becomes popular
which is the perspective of this scenario since tenants get the opportunity to
project, is both a very long and a very short buy their property and organise a social
time. It is a long time in the light of the residential community
technological changes and globalisation üü Decision to electrify DSB’s main routes
etc, that we have experienced in the last 35 üü Area planning and conflict of interests
years and up until today. But is is a short time between city and countryside are proven
when you consider the large political and in the country planning
institutional conditions influencing society. üü Perspective plan 1 and 2 about the
When you look at them you find out that many development of the public sector
of the structures and institutions shaping the üü Energy crises in 1973 and 1978 make up
framework in which we can act today were a new agenda
created more than 35 years ago. üü From full employment to high unemploy-
ment in a few years creates new and
Below we have briefly drawn up the most growing social problems in the large cities
important changes with a significance for üü Copenhagen and other cities have to take
today’s society and the possibilities for a green a loan abroad
transition. We begin in the 60s. üü Private construction stagnates – the
primary construction is social housing

26 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

üü First comprehensive energy plan in
Denmark (1976)
üü The Heat Supply Act and obligatory
connection (1979)
üü Decision on the natural gas net (1979)
üü The municipal reform – 275 new
municipalities and 14 counties
üü Last streetcar runs in Copenhagen
1980s: new kinds of balancing acts
üü Support for building private cooperative
housing in the shape of high density/
low-rise housing
üü The natural gas net is opened
üü Ban on electric heat in new buildings
üü Decision on no to nuclear power
üü The report of the Brundtland Commission
(1987) – the concept of ’sustainable
development’ is born
üü The ’Energy 2000’ plan about reduction of
the energy consumption and CO2 emissions
üü The first Danish electric car – “The Ellert”
üü A decision on a fixed link over
The Great Belt
üü Uprising in Eastern Europe
üü Gigantic deficits in Copenhagen as a
result of large social expenditure
üü ’The Capital – what do we want with it?’
Report from an initiative group set up by
the Schlüter government about the
Copenhagen Region. Creates an alliance
between Copenhagen Municipality and
the state and starts a long row of
decisions about public investments in
Copenhagen (1989)
1990s: the golden age of the province
üü Big urban renewal projects in larger cities
üü Restoring Copenhagen: it is decided that
the state should invest in Copenhagen
airports, the Øresund bridge, culture and
educational institutions and Ørestad
üü All of the railways of Greater Copenhagen
are electrified
üü Rules of country planning are introduced
üü International climate conference in
Rio de Janeiro (1992)
üü The Kyoto Agreement and ’Agenda 21’
üü Ban on electrical heating in existing
housing (1994)
üü Heavy extension of wind energy in Denmark
üü Political agreement on extending combined
heat and power, natural gas, biomass etc.
üü Environment and Society – the first status
of Denmark’s environmental state
üü ’The Big H’ completed with the opening of
The Great Belt fixed link (1997/1998)
üü Decision made on a metro in Copenhagen
üü Internet and E-mail spreading
2000s: increasing imbalances
üü Decentral regulatory framework for
combined heat and power is improved
(2002)
üü New climate strategies in 2000 and 2003
üü The government stops the quota system
üü Danish quota system for CO2 is replaced
by a European one in 2005
üü Residential patterns thin out remote
rural areas
üü Widespread city growth around the largest
cities in the country
üü Residence price bubble bursts
üü Economic ascent and descent with crisis
üü Electrification of the main net is given up
and the focus goes to diesel operations
and IC4 trains are purchased
üü The structural reform leads to 94 new
municipalities and 5 regions
üü Country planning is significantly
strengthened with the structural reform
üü National comprehensive plan directive:
’Finger plan 2007’
üü The Eastern Jutland city stretch takes shape
üü The North Sea agreement (2003)
üü Decision on a fixed Femern link (2008)
üü Decision on a metro city ring (2008)
üü First A bus in Copenhagen (2002)
27
 üü Cooperation between Better Place and
DONG about introduction of electric cars
in Denmark
üü Low-price airline companies conquer large
market shares
üü Digitalisation is used for energy optimisation
üü Attempts to reach a global climate
agreement fail
üü A visionary Danish energy policy up until
2025 is formulated (2007)
üü Increased focus on energy efficiency in
building (particularly insulation)
üü The university reform concentrates
institutions in the larger cities
üü The establishment of technical colleges
concentrates institutions in regional centres
üü Raised transport contribution in remoter
municipalities
üü Global financial crisis begins after the
bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008)
2010s: large city areas set the pace
üü Continued economic crisis and slow
recovery
üü The move towards the city is intensified
üü New building political strategy
üü Liberalisation of the Shopping Hours Law
üü Internet trade grows dramatically
üü Togfonden DK – electrification and ’time
model’ between the largest cities
üü National parks appointed
üü Electric buses in the city circle in
Copenhagen
üü Larger experiment with electrical buses in
Copenhagen begun 2014
üü Cars have become dramatically more
energy efficient
üü Electric/hybrid cars have not yet had
their breakthrough
üü EU’s binding climate goals awaiting global
agreements
üü Political agreement on energy politics
leading up to 2020
28
3.2 THE DEVELOPMENT IN NUMBERS –
THEN, NOW AND IN THE FUTURE
In 2050, according to the prognoses we
are 500,000 more inhabitants in Denmark.
Urbanisation has made the large cities grow
markedly and the age distribution has moved
upwards. If this development continues we will
also commute more. But what is the starting
point for this development? In the following
we put the development up until today into
numbers and we present prognoses for the
development of the future within the main
themes and together they give us a starting
point in numbers to help us understand
Denmark’s future green transition.
1) Citizens and society
2) Energy and climate
3) Environment
4) Business and economy
5) Transport and mobility
Citizens and society
In Denmark in 2014 we count over 5.6 million
Danes which is almost half a million more than
30 years ago. This trend is expected to continue
so we will get to 6 million Danes in 2036.
There are becoming more Danes but if we look
at the rate of increase in population globally the
picture is even clearer. Globally it is expected
that in 2050 we will be 9 billion people against
6.1 billion in 2014. 75% of them will live in urban
areas against ’only’ 50% today.
In a green transition perspective this rise makes
great demands on how we use the limited
resources of the Earth in the future and how we
develop our cities.
Strong urbanisation
In the urbanisation of Denmark for the past
30 years, the rate of increase in population
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
has particularly concentrated around Eastern
Jutland and the capital area while Aarhus and
Odense have also experienced a dramatic
growth of citizens in the period. This can be
seen in figure 3.1 where the development is
distributed on the map of Denmark.
Urbanisation is a local trend that is expected to
continue. This puts both the larger cities under
pressure to be able to receive the many new
citizens while areas that are depopulated must
handle this development.
The population development of the
large cities
Urbanisation, which usually takes place towards
the larger cities is not unequivocal however.
If we look slightly outside of the Danish
borders and compare the population growth
in Denmark’s two largest cities with larger
cities close to Denmark, the fluctuations in the
prognoses are obvious.
In figure 3.2 we have juxtaposed the expected
population development for the Capital Area,
FIGURE 3.1
The population development in Denmark from 1986 to
1999 (left) and from 1999 to 2012 (right)
Signature explanation
Change in pct.
Eastern Jutland, Hamburg, Stockholm, Oslo
and Amsterdam. In index form the figure shows
that the population growth for for the Capital
Area, Stockholm and Oslo will be dramatic
while Eastern Jutland and Amsterdam will also
experience a certain population growth up
towards 2040. In contrast to this the prognoses
show a very limited population growth for
Hamburg.
The population is getting older
Apart from the growth in the number of
people and the urbanisation another important
character trait in the population development is
the ageing of the average Dane.
Today, the average age of a Dane is
approximately 40.7 years old. That average is
expected to rise around 2 years towards 2025
to 42.6 years and to 43.4 years in 2040. This
may not sound like a lot but the development
will first and foremost happen by many more
becoming much older than they do today. This
is evident in figure 3.3.
Source: DAMVAD 2014 based on Statistics Denmark.
Note: The transparent population development in the first
period was 4 pct. and in the second period 5.1 pct.
Signature explanation
Change in pct.
29
 FIGURE 3.2
Population development in
selected cities 2015–2040,
index 2015=100

Source: DAMVAD 2014

Index

based on Statistics Denmark,

Stockholm Låns Landsting,
Stastistisk sentralbyrå
(Norge), Planbureau voor de
Leefomgeving (Holland)

Stockholm Amsterdam Capital Area Eastern Oslo Hamburg

Jutland

FIGURE 3.3 1.000 people 1.000 people

Development in age groups
1980–2040

Source: DAMVAD and

Statistics Denmark’s
population projection 2013
Note: 0–17 and 65+ years old
on left axis, 18–64 years old
on right axis

Year
0-17 years old 65+ years old 18-64 years old (right axis)

FIGURE 3.4
Development in the share of
20–64 year olds in selected
cities, index 2014=100

Source: DAMVAD 2014

based on Statistics Denmark,
Stockholm Låns Landsting,
Index

Stastistisk sentralbyrå
(Norge), Planbureau voor
de Leefomgeving (Holland)
Note: Data for Hamburg not
available

Capital Area Eastern Jutland Amsterdam Oslo Stockholm

30 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

This dramatic change in the composition of the FIGURE 3.5
population will make great demands on how we The distribution of Denmark’s energy production, 2012
in the welfare state take into consideration this
rising number of old people. Biomass 10.7%

Renewable energy
Wind power 4.6%
The ageing population is a characteristic
that goes across city regions in and around Heat pumps 1.1%

Denmark, which can be seen by the share of Biogas 0.5%

20–64 year olds falling towards 2040. This can
Solar energy 0.2%
be seen in figure 3.4. Amsterdam is the city
region where the share of 20–64 year olds is Oil 53.6%
Fossil fuel

expected to fall the most while Eastern Jutland

energy

Natural gas 27.2%

is the region where the lowest fall is expected.
Waste 2.1%

Energy and climate 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

One of the biggest threats against the
continued development of human society is
the rise in greenhouse gases (including CO2) Source: DAMVAD based on Energistatistikken 2012
Note: The overall energy production in 2012 made up
in the atmosphere. The production of energy 801.232 TJ
based on fossil fuels is a large source of CO2
emissions and therefore it is increasingly
attempted to utilise sustainable alternatives. Rising share of renewable energy
The Danish government has set a goal that production
Denmark should be independent of fossil The composition of the energy supply has
fuels in 2050. Here we briefly take stock of the over time changed towards a larger share of
Danish energy production. renewable energy in Denmark. Particularly
the production of wind energy has risen
Denmark’s energy production dramatically since the end of the 80s which can
The share of Denmark’s energy production can be seen in the figure below.
be seen in figure 3.8, that shows that more than
15% of the Danish energy production is based
on renewable energy sources while more than
80 pct. of the energy production is based on
fossil fuels in the shape of oil and natural gas.

31
 FIGURE 3.6
Production of renewable energy in Denmark 1980–2012
1980 – 2012 (PJ)
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Wind power Straw
Wood Biogas
Waste, biodegradable Other
Source: Energistatistikken 2012
Economic considerations about energy
Collective energy supply is an advantage when
homes or businesses are close together. In
densely built areas in Denmark, we have built up
a supply based on collectivity. This can be seen
as a kind of lock-in investment and therefore it
will, other things being equal, be connected to
extra expenses and losses if the supply in the
future is to be more individually based. There
will be some who invest in individual supply
first which will increase the fixed costs for the
others connected to the collective supply. This
will create the incentive for more to switch to
individual supply which again will increase the
fixed costs for the rest until there is no-one left
connected to the collective supply.
A further challenge is that even with individual
supply there may be a need to tap into a
collective net in periods when the individual
solution does not cover adequately enough.
Environment
It is well-documented that the population
of the Earth as a whole exerts a pressure on
global resources which is not sustainable. We
eat away at the planet’s resources faster than
they can be reproduced.
Therefore the big question in the 21st century
is how we can keep our standard of living within
the resources that our planet makes available.
You could say that dramatic steps must be
taken when it comes to reducing air pollution
and resource consumption as well as securing
biological diversity if we want to still be able to
draw on the Earth’s resources in the future.
The global imprint is rising
Popularly speaking, today we use the equivalent
of 1½ planets5 a year in relation to the resources
we use and the waste we produce. In other
words it takes earth one year and six months
to regenerate what the population of the Earth
uses in one year. In 1961 the number was 0.7 of a
planet and if we look towards 2050 in a business
as usual projection it is expected that we use the
equivalent of three times the Earth’s resources
every year.
The Danish imprint is pronounced
Where energy production tells one side of the
story our consumption tells the other side. It
has been calculated that every Dane emits
around 19 tons of CO2 every year incl. imported
consumption. If for example the 2 degree goal
is to be met, in 2050 we have to reduce our
consumption by 80–95% in relation to the
consumption in 1990. If we increase our efficiency,
however, there is no direct numerical correlation
between consumption and emissions!

32 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

FIGURE 3.7 scenarios the Danish energy agency has set
The Danish energy consumption distributed in usage areas up with wind, biomass, bio+ and hydrogen, the
fossil fuel solution will be the cheapest. This
with a CO2 price of 245 DKK/hour.

However, there will be a string of gains to be

derived from going from fossil fuels to fossil
fuel free, e.g. in the shape of reduced emission
of nitrogen, SO2, NOX and particles as well as
improved biodiversity. Also, there may be derived
effects by switching to fossil fuel free transport.
t

s
or

es

se

old
sp

sin

es

eh
an

sin
bu

us

Europe’s long-term scenario towards a low

Tr

bu

Ho
n
tio

ice
uc

rv
od

emission society in 2050 can be compared to

se
Pr

nd
ea

the Green networks scenario with approx. 80%

ad
Tr

CO2 reduction in relation to 1990. Here it is

Source: Danish Energy Agency’s energy statistics, 2012
If we delve deeper into the Danish energy
consumption it can be shared out across main
sectors. This shows that the transport sector
has the majority of the energy consumption,
which in 2012 was over 200 PJ closely followed
by households.
expected that the transition to a low emission
society will boost european economy as a
result of increased innovation and low or zero
emission energy.
FIGURE 3.8
Expenses at different scenarios

Economic considerations about carbon-

Bil. DKK a year

neutrality and fossil fuel free society

The expenses in a transition to a carbon-neutral
society very much depends in the development
– partly the price of fossil fuels and partly how
quickly new technologies become ready for the
market and are launched. Therefore, there is also
a broad span between the lowest and highest
ind

o+

en

e l
as

fu
og
Bi
W

om

estimates about expenses.

sil
dr
Bi

s
Hy

Fo

Savings Investments D&V

In Denmark additional costs by having a fossil
fuel free energy supply is estimated to be 6–29 Fuel CO2

billion DKK annually in 2050 (Danish energy

agency, 2014). Here more than half the costs Source: Danish Energy Agency (2014): Energy scenarios
through to 2020, 2035 and 2050
will be in the transport sector. In relation to the

33
 The EU estimates that is takes an extra €270
billion (1.5% of GDP) investment annually, on
average, for the next four decades to reach
that objective. Further, the EU estimates that it
will create up to 1.5 mill. extra jobs as soon as
2020 if national governments use income from
CO2 taxes and auctioning of CO2 quotas for
investments in the sector. If more energy was
produced sustainably and locally in the EU it will
make the EU less dependent on amongst other
things import of oil and thereby also increase
security of supply, on which there is great focus
at the moment. The plan estimates that the EU
on average can save €175–320 bio. annually in
fuel expenses over the next 40 years.
When it comes to cleaner air there will also be
great opportunities to save money: if cleaner
technologies and electrical cars gain ground and
are used more widely air pollution will be reduced
drastically in European cities. This will lead to
fewer people suffering from e.g. asthma and
fewer resources having to be spent on healthcare
and the control of air pollution. In 2050 the EU
can save up to €88 bio. annually in these areas
(EU: low carbon roadmap 2050 (2011)).
FIGURE 3.9
Development in Denmark’s energy consumption, GDP
and energy intensity since 1980
34
For the scenarios aimed at a CO2 reduction
there are more ambitious ones than in our
neighbouring countries and/or the rest of
Europe and this risks becoming more costly
since in these countries other circumstances
will be applicable, which can complicate the
development in Denmark. For example when
it comes to holding on to the competitiveness
of the business community and Danish
workplaces when the conditions in the short
term are expected to worsen in comparison to
other countries.
Business and economy
The key challenge in the green transition is to
make it go hand in hand with economic growth.
Historically it has not been possible
internationally to lower CO2 emissions parallel
to the economy growing. However, in Denmark
we have succeeded in doing this anyway, see
figure 3.9.
Thus, since 1980 the energy intensity (energy
level per GDP) has been declining. Globally
it has been somewhat more difficult to be as
successful as Denmark since there is a rising
Gross domestic product
Gross energy consumption – rectified
Energy intensity/energy consumption (GDP)
Source: Danish Energy Agency’s energy statistics 2012,
Statistics Denmark
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
demand in the economies that are still in FIGURE 3.10
the development stage. Combined with the Form of transport, market shares, minutes per person
per day
expected global population growth it will be
even harder in the coming years since it will
require massive energy consumption unless
more resource efficient production types
become normal or a greener energy production

Min./person/day
becomes reality.

The green Danish economy

In Denmark we have a large number of
businesses delivering “green” products and
services. They comprise the businesses of the
future which are key to the green transition. The
green trade in Denmark was more than 250 bil.
Car driver Car passenger Bicycle
DKK in 2010, the equivalent of 9.2% of Danish
businesses’ total turnover, and in 2010 green Walking Bus Train
products were exported for over 80 bil. DKK, the Other
equivalent of 10.4% of the total Danish export,
and so today is already today an important part Source: DTU Transport, 2013
of the Danish business structure.
While emissions has decreased in many sectors,
Green production can be found in almost all in the field of transport it has risen 31% since
industries and the business spans over a wide 1990 and is still on the rise. Therefore, there
spectrum of goods from solar cell systems, is a great challenge in turning this curve while
particle filters and sewage treatment to the mobility is not impaired. This is particularly
consultancy within environment and climate. important in the light of the urbanisation which
gives serious challenges for mobility in the cities.
Transport and mobility
The energy consumption in the transport
sector comprises a third of Denmark’s energy
consumption, mostly due to fossil fuel. At the
same time transport constitutes our mobility
and has great significance on both business
and individuals. The transition of our transport
sector is therefore key in relation to a greener
society and our mobility.

Today the car is the Danes’ favourite mode of

transport, see figure 3.20 where the respective
shares of the forms of transport have been
calculated.

35
4
4. Trends and strategic uncertainties
4.1 WORKING WITH TRENDS
AND UNCERTAINTIES
In connection with the three camps with the
participation of up to 150 representatives from
municipalities, regions and state authorities
as well as funds, organisations and businesses
a number of trends relevant to society have
been identified. These have been subject to
more thorough analyses, tests, gradation and
descriptions in the scenario team and have been
the subject of discussion in an expert panel. On
the basis of this, the identified trends have been
supplemented and adjusted or rejected.
The result is a list with respectively safe trends
that affect all scenarios in a similar way and a
list with uncertainties that have significance for
the specific development ways in each scenario
Below we explain the most important safe
trends and uncertainties of significance for the
scenarios. To explain all the factors affecting
Denmark’s cities and their green transition
towards 2050 is not possible. The trends are
driven by very comprehensive and long-term
changes such as globalisation, technological
development and demographic changes.   passed the point where more people globally live
4.2 TRENDS – SAFE DEVELOPMENTS
Denmark is internationalised
The power balance of the world has in all
probability changed radically with the emergence
of a new global middle class. Goldman Sachs
predicts that China’s GDP will be double the
USA’s in 2050. It is in the previous “third world”
that we find the consumers and the demand of
the future and all countries and businesses will
compete to reach these markets. This creates a
pressure of globalisation on Denmark and other
Western economies. The dependency on our
surrounding world – particularly Asia – will grow
concurrently with the rise of international trade
and economies are integrated.
Furthermore there will be a parallel revolution
in the field of information technology and we
have only seen the beginning.
Today a third of the world’s population have
access to internet6 and the number is rising
fast. If it continues at the same pace the whole
world will be online in 2050. The exchange of
information is rising and communication across
borders is thereby rendered more effective
which then points to the significance of country
borders will be reduced.7
Internationalisation is not least applicable to
businesses that increasingly operate in other
countries. This creates a more open job market
where Denmark, to a larger degree, will need
expert knowledge from abroad and where
Danes to a larger extent will seek abroad.
Main driving forces: globalisation, technology
development, demographic changes
Denmark is urbanised
For the first time, only a couple of years ago, we
in cities. The UN predicts a strong urbanisation,
particularly in lesser developed parts of the
world towards 2050, which is strongly connected
to the growth of the new global middle class.
But even in the Western world the UN thinks
that the urbanisation will continue. However this
has slightly different causes than for example
China where people move from a poor life as
peasants and to the factories in the city.
In the knowledge economy, human capital and
creativity are the key to innovation and thereby
to growth. In order to be innovative and thereby
competitive, businesses must cooperate with
6
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
6
http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf
37
 knowledge institutions and have access to well-
educated employees who are often found in
the large cities. Well-educated people localise
themselves according to career opportunities.
Regions around the larger cities – regions with
strong institutions – have a great competition
advantage here. The large cities also have a
larger critical mass to make use of digitalisation
and IT, gain resource optimisation and become
smart cities. This attracts the well-educated,
creative and innovative businesses and those
working within the businesses.
How the urbanisation will look is not obvious.
Factors that can counteract urbanisation are
less building of homes, a more decentralised
production as a result of for instance 3D printing
and successful specialisations outside the larger
cities. Even though there are examples of large
cities with very large problems (e.g. Detroit) they
are, however, considerably fewer than the large
cities that grow and thrive.
Main driving forces: technological development,
globalisation and demographic changes
Ageing population
Like the populations in the rest of the Western
world, the Danish population is ageing. The
average lifespan is increased as a result of
reduced immigration, lower birth numbers, better
living conditions and medical progress. The
share of the population at the age 65+ will rise
dramatically in Denmark in the coming years.
The family responsibility is increased with
a higher proportion of elderly and a smaller
proportion of working age people. Fewer
youngsters have to provide for a rising number
of elderly which makes a greater demand
for greater efficiency and possibly a higher
retirement age.
Main driving forces: demographic changes
38
Digitalisation
Digitalisation means that, to a large degree,
the world is translated into digital terms and
that we live a still larger part of our lives
where digital technologies are everywhere.
”Everything that can be digitalised will be
digitalised” (Normann, R. 2001).
The business landscape will be rewritten when
large amounts of information can be moved
and processed in a short time. The internet
and the platforms we use daily to gain the
advantages of digital information become the
medium from which the creation and services
spring. The development leads to hyper
efficient so-called ”smart cities”, mainly in the
large cities. When everything is linked up –
the Internet of Things – there are no longer
any limits to how ”smart cities” or businesses
can be or look like. But it also leads to human
integrity being threatened when everyone can
track data about everything.
Main driving forces: technological development
Climate changes
Climate questions and the environmental
problems of the world have come more into
focus in the last decades. The scientific society
agrees that climate changes happen as a result
of human activity. Economic production leaves
sizeable tracks in the shape of emissions and
the more conventional growth in the world
there is, the larger the climate imprint.
With an increased temperature the sea level at
the coasts will rise gradually and there will be
heavier winds and floods. In order to meet the
challenge of an increased global temperature
it will probably require less emission of
greenhouse gases, an ecologically durable
production of foodstuff and that energy is
produced in a sustainable way. A fundamental
requirement for meeting the climate challenge
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
is therefore not least a green technological
development.
Main driving forces: globalisation, demographic
changes
Green technological development
Technological development is the cornerstone
in green transition for the cities. While existing
technologies are developed and improved there
is an innovative technological development
that can affect the green transition greatly.
Radical technological developments within
energy technology will towards 2050 affect how
energy is produced and consumed and has the
potential to radically change the way in which
we view energy as a resource.
For instance, new technology can make energy
a resource produced locally, for instance on an
individual or household level. With the smart
grid technology houses can be both consumers
and producers of energy. New green energy
resources are developed that can be mass
produced after the same model as the fossil
fuels of today and distributed to where it is
needed. An example of this could be large solar
power plants.
Main driving forces: globalisation, technological
development
Co-Creation
Relationships changing towards being more
personal and less formal and together with new
technological possibilities create co-creation.
This implies that preferences for sharing
and co-ownership are increased. The wish to
cooperate broadly and share knowledge and
resources becomes widespread, e.g. through
crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and collaborative
consumption.
New ”crowd” solutions are strongly driven
forward by both economic and environmental
and resource saving logic. For the green
transition crowd innovation can be something
that both contributes to development and
engagement in the broader population.
Main driving forces: technological development,
globalisation
In the following we describe more detailed
the uncertainties that have arisen from the
scenario process.
4.3 UNCERTAINTIES
Will collective or individual values
dominate?
Since the 1970s the Nordic countries have
changed from having collective and traditional
values toward more individual, postmodern
values (see e.g. World Values Survey). This
has also meant that the diversity had grown
and that the division of powers in society has
changed. For instance, women have gained
more power and influence in both public
(political) connections and in business. Instead
of group identities and traditions setting the
boundaries for humans, individuals have, to a
larger extent, been able to shape and organise
their own lives.
It is possible that individualisation has now
reached a maximum and that there will be a
combination of collective individual values, a
sort of ’Me-We society’ where one shields one’s
own freedom and self-determination but also
responds to the common good. Both World
Values Survey and Kairos Future’s studies point
to a more collective foundation in the future.
39
 In the 2050 perspective it is uncertain to
which degree collective or individual values
will dominate but the result has dramatic
consequences for the societal structure.
What are the Danes’ residential
preferences?
What individuals or families believe is a good
life is not static. There is a big difference
both between cultures, social layers and over
time. Residential preferences change and
vary too. There are great differences between
whether  people want to live centrally, near
work, culture life and much more or whether
lots of space, beautiful nature and familiar
surroundings are more important.
The residential preferences of the individuals
get a much bigger and more independent
significance but it is uncertain which
preferences will dominate the residential
demand in a 2050 perspective.
Political energy or paralysis?
Political decisions set the framework for the
decisions of all players whether it concerns
a regulation of markets, decisions of public
taxes and the use of money or the approval
of visions/guidelines for how society should
develop in the coming years. Even though there
is a considerable knowledge about the need to
stop climate damaging emissions (particular
CO2) in order to avoid continuous global
warming, there is no agreement on an actual
globally binding agreement on a reduction of
climate-damaging emissions.
However, the lack of a global agreement has
not stopped many countries and international
authorities (EU) from passing national
commitments themselves. It is also uncertain
whether, over time, there is enough will in many
40
countries to take on the expenses that others
do not. Also, other factors such as geopolitical
instability (e.g. the Ukraine) can get further
and more wide-ranging consequences so the
political power to act is directed towards other
areas that are prioritised higher
Enough or scarce resources?
The population of the world is growing and
the use of natural resources is increased
simultaneously with new regions creating
growth and striving for increased wealth.
Increasingly, this leads to many natural
resources showing obvious signs of the lack of
availability already today – or that they have
become markedly more expensive to extract.
Despite new methods such as fracking, it is
not certain that resources will rise: ”Peak oil is
more relevant than ever” says Kjell Aleklett for
instance in an interview in European Energy
Review8.
Both the ideological and economical
incitements to further a more resource
efficient production, energy efficiency, better
recycling and smarter consumption are
therefore larger than ever. These incitements
can lead to the scarcity of resources actually
becoming markedly less. For instance waste
will be a growing resource which means less
incineration and more recycling.
Denmark’s economic prerequisites?
It is difficult to speak with certainty about the
competitive power of the Danish economy
towards 2050. In the last year we have seen
a trend that the Danish economy is growing
slower than the economies of others countries.
8
Se http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.
php?id_mailing=509&id=4257
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
 Growth economies are no longer just the
“factories” of the world. They already compete
with knowledge economies such as Denmark
and will continue to do so in the future.
The entire global economy can become
fundamentally different moving towards 2050.
Asia will go from factory to development
laboratory and large parts of Africa can
combine the availability of raw material with
processing businesses. The opportunities and
threats for Denmark are more numerous and
the development is partly dependable on our
own decisions.
Therefore, Denmark’s economy may, to a large
degree, profit from the economic development
in the new countries in the shape of increased
export opportunities, particularly for green
businesses.
More or fewer green businesses and
workplaces in Denmark?
Danish businesses are exposed to tough
global competition and the price for labour is
considerably higher in Denmark than in the
growth economies. This puts the industry today
and in the future under pressure even within
the green businesses.
At the same time we can see today that
knowledge in green areas in Denmark creates
still more workplaces with a growing export
of green solutions. Green businesses become
more productive and there are generally more
skilled workers in green businesses than in
other businesses.
Here the uncertainty concerns how far the
green transition is carried out in Denmark and
how quickly Danish businesses profit from
this development. Businesses can drive the
development and cooperate with the political
development. Otherwise they can lag behind
and lose advantages.
4.4 STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTIES
Scenarios are based on uncertainties. We do
not know how the future will look but we can
create possible future scenarios. Some of the
six uncertainties we have described above are
key for describing the possibilities for a green
transition in Denmark towards 2050.
The two axis indicating the scenarios have
emerged by combining the most important and
critical uncertainties for the green transitions
of the cities.
Strategic uncertainty
– a development (change) in society that
is very uncertain and which is of strategic
significance for the question.
The focus is to which degree there is
interaction between the green technological
development and the political power to act
and whether society is marked by individual or
collective values and lifestyle.
The development of the interaction between
politics and technology also has a fundamental
effect on the green transition. Without a strong
technological development it will be hard to
ensure a green transition just like it will be
hard without political will and control. But it
is not simply about technology or politics but
about the interaction between the two. Here
we can have hopes of the development but
we cannot know how things will turn out – the
development is uncertain.
41
 These two uncertainties are independent of
each other. In the following we will delve further
into the two strategic uncertainties.
Strategic uncertainty 1 – Domineering
values and lifestyles in Denmark 2050
What characterises people’s lifestyles?
What are the dominating value patterns?
Scandinavia, including Denmark, has had
a strong development towards increased
individualisation in recent decades. This is,
however, not a development that is taken
for granted. We also see more signs pointing
to more collective values becoming more
important – many young people, for example,
think that individualisation has gone too
far  (Global Youth, Kairos Future 2013).
Therefore we can imagine two domineering
values and lifestyles in Denmark in 2050: either
reinforced individualisation or a development
going towards more collective and shared
(mutual) values.
Below are the overall lines for a society with
respectively individual or collective values in
2050 laid out.
Individual values and lifestyles – 2050
In 2050 people have become still more
individually-orientated. They have a strong will
to be able to influence their own daily lives and
therefore find it hard to observe the common
overall principles.
The development of society happens from
below – bottom-up – where (new) products
and services are adapted to individual needs.
There is room for great variety and diversity in
lifestyles. There is a tolerance for different types
of behaviour but also for social inequality.
42
Flexible communities are the norm that you
select or deselect according to changing needs
with obvious shifts from tribalisation, not least
via virtual communities that support selective
choices. We see the growth of individualisation
of public and private services. Small businesses
have a considerable chance to influence the
development.
Collective values and lifestyles – 2050
In 2050 the previous strong individual values
have been replaced by more community-
orientated values. When the Millennium
generation grew up they saw that it is
necessary to solve the big society problems
together. They started building a community
again – like in the 1950s and 60s.
People’s lifestyles are based on a top-down
approach with a belief that common solutions
can be created. Products and services are
developed to suit the majority which also
results in few and domineering technologies
making headway.
Uniform public and private services are
developed for all with a continuous loyalty to
the community. Public authorities get great
opportunities to influence the development.
Strategic uncertainties 2 –
Interaction between politics and
green technology
The green technological development will
continue towards 2050. The question is to
what degree the green technology can be
implemented and used in society as a result
of politics with more will to act related to the
green transition.
In the end the issue is whether the interaction
between political action and green technology
is strong or weak.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
Through political initiatives the technological
possibilities can be influenced – before they
are economically profitable, too (research
politics, innovation politics, energy taxes etc.).
At the same time technological development
of businesses and knowledge institutions
influence what possibilities are available
politically. It is uncertain whether politics
and technological development is capable
of creating a synergy and together drive the
development towards a green transition or
whether they will lack support. They could even
end up counteracting one another.
Laid out below are the overall guidelines for
a society with respectively weak or strong
interaction between politics and green
technology in 2050.
green transition. Political instruments support
the introduction of new technology. At the
same time there is a strong will in businesses
and research institutions to develop a green
technology. Research and innovation politics
are strong and prioritised politically with large
grants and thereby supports the development
of green technology. Important climate
technologies become very popular.
Politicians are well-informed about technological
possibilities and have strong will to take well-
informed, long-term technological ventures. A
strong cooperation between different players
gives green technology a breakthrough. For
instance, public-private cooperations are an
important driver for good understanding across
institutions, private and public.

Weak interaction between politics and 4.5 FOUR SCENARIOS

green technology – 2050 Based on the two strategic uncertainty
Politics and technology are out of step: discussions we have developed four possible
when the technology has its breakthrough scenarios which each comprises a possible
the political backup is lacking. A new green description of Denmark in 2050. In the
development is developed but the political following we delve down into each of the four
control does so that the potential is not utilised. scenarios.
There is a lack of political understanding of
how the technological solutions can contribute.
Strong interaction between
politics and green technology
There are many technological solutions but the
politicians make no active choices as to what
solutions should primarily be worked with. Weak
interaction between the different players does
so that green technology does not work through. Individual GREEN GREEN Collective
values and NETWORKS STATE values and
The innovation and research politics do not have lifestyles lifestyles
enough penetration power, amongst other things dominate dominate
how people relate to how people relate to
because not enough funds for developing new other groups and to other groups and to
technology are allocated. society as a whole society as a whole
GREEN GREEN
GUERILLA COMPROMISES
Strong interaction between politics and
green technology –2050 Weak interaction between
Strong interaction between politics and politics and green technology
technology; both work together to drive the

43
5
5. Green state
5.1 2050: GREEN FOR THE STATE
AND THE COMMUNITY
In 2050 the state has had a revival and take
control when it comes to the green transition.
The strong role of the state is supported
by the return of collective values in society.
The Danes vote red-green and prioritise
collective green solutions financed via the
common tax and duty system and started
and implemented by public players. There is
strong interaction between state politics and
the green technological development and
implementation.
Strong interaction between politics
and green technology
Collective values
and lifestyles
dominate
GREEN how people relate to
STATE other groups and to
society as a whole
The international cooperation in the EU,
UN and in Scandinavia are permeated by
the same collective currents although with
regional variations. Climate challenges and
green transition are high on the international
agenda and there is a large consensus between
the advanced economies of the world to
follow common goals for CO2 reductions and
energy optimisation. The frames are binding.
Most countries, with Russia as an important
exception, have signed agreements where
there have committed themselves to reduce
their CO2 emissions year by year.
Generally there is a low conflict level. There
are, however, regional tensions and sometimes
armed conflicts in both Africa and Eastern
Europe where there are countries with large
ethnic minorities. Largely the conflicts only
involve local parties. The USA, the EU, Russia,
China and India do not interfere in the conflicts.
The tensions between Russia and the EU about
the Crimean Peninsula and Ukraine in the 10s
incited a hitherto unseen agreement between
the EU countries of freeing themselves
from the dependency on gas from Russia
and venture into renewable energy sources.
Denmark and the largest Danish cities are
not just active but leading in the international
climate cooperation.
In 2050 China and India have become economic
growth and power centres. China’s GDP is
double the USA’s in 2050. The two countries
almost have control of previous problems like
poverty, inequality, pollution and corruption.
The enormous Chinese and Indian middle class
drives the demand and the development in
the mega metropoles. This furthers innovation
and the green transition in the world springs
from China in 2050. Therefore Denmark
and the other Western economies orientate
themselves heavily towards the two large Asian
countries. The climate is high on the Asian
agenda. Already in 2040 China phased out
coal in the energy supply and focused on solar
power, water and wind as the primary energy
sources. It is also here, in the big Asian mega
metropoles, that the new efficient city solutions
within building, energy waste management and
transport are developed and tested. Quickly
afterwards they are introduced in cities in other
parts of the world.
45
 For the same reason CO2 reduction and green
transition are high on the Danish national
agenda. The state and the community are once
again in control, but now in association with
the strong focus on CO2 reduction, renewable
energy and other green transitions. Thereby
there is also a prioritisation of energy efficient
solutions and a more concentrated population
development. In 2050 Denmark has thereby
achieved becoming 100% independent of fossil
fuels and has instead become 100% carbon-
neutral and based on renewable energy. This
has further pushed urbanisation and growth
in the four largest city regions, Copenhagen,
Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.
Amongst the medium-sized cities (the classic
market towns) some do well and some do less
well.The medium-sized cities that do well are
those that are functionally attached to to the
job market and business development of the
four large cities. The small towns and local
communities are generally not prioritised,
they have lost their significance and the
development has stagnated – with occasional
exceptions. The green transition ambition is
generally high across the cities. The circular
economy and the green GDP goal have become
a reality.
Citizens and businesses prioritise a green
lifestyle, the climate adaption is proactive and
there is a high degree of central recycling.
Construction is green and tall. The building
mass is concentrated and becomes more
homogenous with standardised constructions
are common themes across the cities. The
energy supply for homes and businesses is
based on cross-national large-scale solutions
with a high degree of renewable energy and
with a particular prioritisation of wind and
biomass as sources of supply.
46
There has been a similar trend for the
business community to have become more
concentrated. Big business is localised in and
around the largest city regions or in some
cases in the medium-sized cities that are
functionally attached to the large cities.
5.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED
Disagreements between Russia, the USA and
the EU after the annexation of the Crimea in
2014 and a following destabilisation of several
countries in Central and Eastern Europe with
large Russian majorities from the middle of the
10s and up until 2020 brought the EU member
countries together and gave a new, much-
needed burning platform for the European
project. A main goal in the new common project
was to ensure the supply of renewable energy
which became the starting signal for new,
massive investments in a green energy supply.
This was, amongst other things, to make the EU
independent of gas from Russia, which in 2014
comprised a third of EU’s total consumption.
At the same time the development gave a new
opportunity for binding political agreements
on both a national and European level. The 20s
became a time of upheaval and in 2050 viewed
as the decade when the green transition was
not just discussed but also executed. Several
climate agreements with very ambitious goals
were entered into. Apart from region specific
agreements COP28 was seen as a cornerstone
in the international green transition. The
cooperation across has been an essential driver
for the green transition in 2050 being at a high
level. This goes both across municipal, regional
and national boundaries but also between
public and private organisations.
The world cooperates
Globally the international organisations and
cooperations are strong and well-coordinated.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
FIGURE 5.1
Critical factors, Green state 2050
INTERNATIONAL Climate
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Green economy
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Large-scale
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Cross-national
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Collective
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
Renewable energy
ENERGY AND CLIMATE Large-scale
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of
citizens’ green lifestyle
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY
Degree of diversity/variety
Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 2014
Consensus in the opinions on important
subjects have led to the development of strong
institutions, broad political agreements and a
cooperation orientated global agenda.
After alarming reports in the 10s about the
climate effects and their significance and a
growing recognition that the hourglass was
running out when it came to counteract man-
made global warming, in the beginning of
the 20s the international society reached an
agreement on far-reaching measures.
At the climate conference COP28 in 2022
ambitious quotas were fixed and measures
to minimise the climate consequences were
agreed upon.
agenda
INTERNATIONAL Conflict level
NATIONAL The state’s
interference in the market
NATIONAL Climate agenda
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Degree of urbanisation
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Green transition
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES Growth
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES
Green transition
0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree,
2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree
The economic incitement structures that
have helped drive the transition in Denmark
are derived from EU agreements that have
implemented considerable taxes on fossil fuels,
air travel and usage charge for the motorway
networks for freight transport and private cars
in the whole of the EU and taxes on shipping
transport. The agreement on the common
taxes across the European countries and in
several cases internationally has also helped
get the green transition moving.
The international climate agreements have
also resulted in international cooperation on
the research, development and implementation
of green initiatives. New technology in the
field of energy supply and transport has come
into being by publicly financed research.
47
 This makes the technology freely available
for all businesses. Not least thanks to the
large ventures in the comprehensive research
programme Green 2050, Horizon 2020’s big
brother. It has also resulted in a new generation
of low-price and energy efficient solar cells
dominating in 2050. They are utilised in large-
scale setups.
At the same time there is great international
pressure on the few economies that still have
not undertaken a sufficiently ambitious green
transition. This goes particularly for Russia and
India as well as a few countries in Africa.
Denmark in a greener world
In Denmark the green transition is also high on
the agenda. It is driven by a will for common
solutions and mutual trust. This has led to
Denmark being a pioneering country with
the introduction of a green GDP in 2020. The
model of society ”Danish Sustainable Society
Solutions” quickly became a coveted export
article because it illustrated how long-term
and stable political planning has led to a
well-functioning green eco system where the
various elements support one another and
where warming, transport and production
with fossil fuels are calculated with a higher
expense factor directly corresponding to their
environmental impact.
The ambitious focus on a green transition puts
not least the Danish foodstuff products industry
under heavy pressure. Particularly in the 10s this
resulted in some resistance from the industry.
But when the consumers and politicians
generally stood together about the wish for
a green transition of foodstuff production, it
gradually got large parts of the industry to align
and carry out changes in the content of raw
materials and production processes. As a result
of this, Danish agriculture achieved a first-mover
48
effect and a leading position as a, internationally
speaking, more efficient and environmentally
friendly business. In the 20s and 30s it has once
again become hip to eat Danish bacon although
in very limited amounts.
In Denmark we can also feel that the air traffic
has come under pressure. The producers have
not succeeded in reducing the use of fossil fuels
sufficiently. Together with the introduction of
large taxes on fossil fuels and and air travel, the
domestic and tourism traffic is out for the count
during the 30s. state initiatives and investments
in more efficient train transport between the
four largest cities also contributes to air travel
over shorter distances having become a luxury
only accessible to the few or in special cases.
Many domestic routes and routes between the
Scandinavian countries are completely closed
down as a consequence of this.
Urbanisation is strengthened in the
green transition
Urbanisation has continued through to 2050
but thanks to infrastructure investments and
national unity and efficiency considerations
most medium-sized cities are attached to the
largest cities and therefore also experience a
positive growth as part of the large functional
city regions. In the latter part of the 20s the
minimising of the airplane transport puts the
Northern Jutland area under pressure but this
is only temporary until an adaption in forms of
transport and behaviour has occurred.
The small city areas that are not sufficiently
attached to the large cities are under increased
pressure, particularly because the citizens here
emit more CO2 per inhabitant and because the
large common solutions work best in large city
environments. This is not least the case for the
city public transport, the circular economy and
the efficient district heating.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
The capital and Mid and Eastern Jutland from
Randers to Kolding are growth centres with
strong settlements and business development.
Odense blossoms as a growth centre for
Funen and Southern Denmark, and Aalborg for
Northern Jutland, although on a smaller scale.
Here the priorities have also thought of the
large city as an attractive place to live. In
Odense, for instance, they have successfully
shut off large parts of the centre of town which
has redefined the centre as a place where
people and quality of life comes first. Because
it is very attractive to live in the green centre
of Odense with the many green and cultural
offers, it has also become very expensive.
New green technologies mark the many
thorough renovations of city buildings.
Intelligent green walls, orchards on the roofs
and new streams of water characterise the
cities and have an important function as a taker
of increased quantities of rainwater and the
production of fruit and vegetables in the cities.
The cities have also become calmer after the
electric cars have really taken over the streets.
The city of Fredericia is often visited by foreign
delegations wanting to learn more about how
the long-term green strategy of the city has led
to public buildings and the behaviour of public
servants having a directly positive effect on the
environment.
The Danes prioritise community
and health
The values of the Danes have changed
markedly in the last 35 years. From a society
focused on the individual the community is
now valued and prioritised to a larger extent
above the individual. What started as a reaction
against individualism in small groups has
become mainstream by the end of the 20s.
Materialism still plays a part of our everyday
lives but is has changed radically parallel with
the radical change to circular economy and a
thorough digitalisation. The Danes primarily
identify themselves through participation in
larger communities and we identify ourselves
as a part of a larger whole. The Danish club
life is thriving. It is supported by the digital life
where we share and borrow from one another.
Cooperation takes place all over while the
column divided organisation logic has been
replaced by interdisciplinary entities. Public
private partnerships (PPPs) are the norm and
they create good results for all.
Education and research within green technical
solutions have been strongly developed.
Being an ecology engineer is high status. The
talent is concentrated in and around Aarhus,
Copenhagen, Aalborg and Odense where the
four campuses in relation to the Technical
University of Denmark (DTU) are situated.
The healthy lifestyle is in focus on all levels
of society and it plays well with the collective
focus on green transition. Mass currents
have gone through society and people are
expected to eat healthily, to not smoke and as
a natural connection refrain from burdening the
environment with too much unnecessary flight
and car transport.
The technological development has really
moved into our lives. “The Internet of
Things” has become reality which means
the development of an intelligent physical
infrastructure. In other words our lives have
been digitalised and the physical products have
become intelligent: refrigerators automatically
order your basics, the functions of the home are
monitored and controlled via smartphone; health
and care have been digitalised and so on.
49
 Our digital lives are driven by innovative
businesses that are taking advantage of
the new gigabyte networks which is up to
100 times the speed of the Internet. The
development has been like going from using
the telegraph to the telephone. The power of
innovation is strong and while the appearance
of the Internet radically changed industries
within book sales, music and mail services, the
gigabit networks has turned industries upside
down – such as health services and education
where new video technology dominates. The
gigabit networks has also resulted in dramatic
changes in the energy sector where it has
paved the way for the intelligent smart grid.
The interaction between knowledge institutions
and businesses have reached new heights, not
least thanks to the political focus on long-term
solutions for the climate changes. The good
interaction between the citizens, the public and
private knowledge institutions and businesses
make the Danish businesses leading in the field
of green technologies.
Digitalisation has helped strengthen urbanisation
because the technological opportunities are
best taken advantage of where there is a
concentration of users. At the same time the
greatest demand, and thereby spreading, is in
the large cities.
Energy is planned centrally and
long-term
The Danish and European energy systems
have gone through a large change as a result
of a long-term planning. A cornerstone in the
international climate agreements, entered into
as a result of the climate top meeting COP28
50
in 2022, have been global agreements on
CO2 prices. This has led to a well-functioning
market for the CO2 quotas where the prices
have risen dramatically from the 2014 level. In
2050 the price development has developed
the way it was predicted in a report by the
European Commission in 2013,
A suggestion from the Danish Commission
on Climate Change Policy for a green energy
system, put forward in 2010, has been
implemented. This has created an energy
supply distributed as illustrated in figure 5.3.
Thereby we have become self-sufficient with
green energy in 2050. Enormous windmills at
sea have taken a central role together with
the large energy efficient biomass plants. Heat
pumps and solar energy also contribute to the
green energy supply.
FIGURE 5.2
The development in prices for CO2-quotas, 2015–2050, USD
Source: The European Commission: EU Energy transport
and GHG emissions trends to 2050 reference scenario 2013
In 2045 the energy net in Europe has already
become integrated with the new smart grid.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
FIGURE 5.3
Denmark’s energy sources 2008 vs 2050
Waste Wind Heat pumps, solar heat etc.
Biomass
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
2010
Source: Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy, 2010
This results in an intelligent utilisation of green
energy on a larger scale and when the wind is
not blowing in the North Sea, the enormous
solar cell plants in Southern European and
North African countries supply electricity to
the Danish consumers. The solar cells in the
Sahara under the consortium Deserttec, is
particularly significant since it covers 15% of
Europe’s energy consumption in 2050 and
is being massively extended. The smart grid
solution has been a trailblazer project in Europe
for decades and is a manifestation of the unity
of the European countries and the fact that they
act together when it comes to ensuring a green
energy supply and keeping up the security of
the supply.
The fact that we take a collective responsibility
for the green transition has been a decisive
factor in the fact that it has been possible
politically to pass and carry out green
Heat pumps,
solar heat etc. Biomass
Waste
Wind
2050
reforms. Several sprouting and promising
technologies whose potential was still only
being guessed at in the 2010s have, through
long-term investments from the European and
international research programmes, reached a
stage where we do not talk about whether they
can be implemented but how.
For instance, mega investments in research
have led to the EU consortium DEMO having
the first fusion power plant running in 2030,
and the opening of the first commercial fusion
power plant happened in 20499. Expectations
for the further development are therefore great.
The potential for the global energy supply
is enormous since fusion energy can lead to
another paradigm shift. A shift where energy is
no longer a scarce resource since warm fusion
energy can produce the energy extremely
cheaply and in unlimited quantities.
.
9
www.efda.org/fusion
51

Circular economy
In 2050 the cities have changed to a circular
economy. This means that products are either
degradable and can return to nature without
damaging it or that they can be returned to
the producer who will recycle the products
in the production of new ones. For the cities
this has required a great transition that they
have each gone through in the 2030s. The
cities have focused on making the necessary
infrastructure available in order to support the
business possibilities by making it possible to
sort, obtain and reproduce the degradable or
recyclable products.
The first significant steps towards this had
already been taken in 2013 with the then
parliament’s Resource Strategy 2013. In 2050,
98% of electrical items from households are
recycled. Resource effectivity has in 2050
become a competition parameter that holds
more weight than access to cheap labour, like
in an old paradigm. It is the rising prices of raw
materials in particular that has caused this.
Circular economy is a reality
The green economy has had a breakthrough in
the most advanced countries in 2050. This is
supported by the introduction of a green GDP
where Denmark was a leading country in the
2020s and the transition to a circular economy.
Gradually the circular economy took over ’the
world economy’ while new types of products
became competitive with the traditional and
it became mainstream that we as citizens
prioritised these recyclable or degradable
52
products. The development is technological,
particularly supported by new advanced types
of material that are either 100% degradable or
can be reused by the producers. Therefore a
deposit has now been imposed on many types
of materials and products.
Danish business is dominated by a few
very large businesses that are leading
internationally although competition is tough.
The dominating theme for the businesses is
green solutions and although some of them
employ thousands of employees they are
smaller pieces in the great whole as suppliers
to huge multinational companies. When it
comes to green solutions it is particularly
within wind technology where knowledge
institutions work closely together, that pull
large parts of this export success.
Transport is collective
The collective types of transport have had a
real breakthrough and is used by most people
in 2050. This goes for both the the shorter
trips around the cities, longer trips but very
much also when the trip goes abroad. New
high-speed trains now bind Europe closely. The
DBT Foundation gave their guess for how the
future of personal transport in 2013 is shared
out, though few people believed it. In 2050, this
distribution turned out to hold up, as seen in
figure 5.4.
Traffic is regulated and controlled efficiently
with the aid of digital systems and massive
data. In 2050, air traffic has long been under
pressure from climate requirements and high
prices on fossil fuels and there is less flying
out of the airports of Copenhagen. The other,
lesser airports have had to shut down since
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
FIGURE 5.4
The share of personal transport, km per person – 2010 og 2050

Bicycle/walking

Bicycle/
walking
Public
transport

Car
Car Public
transport

2010 2050
Source: The DBT Foundation

domestic flights in Denmark have ceased after

the implementation of new high-speed trains.
Now the electric car is the preferred type of
individual transport and the standards all over
the EU are the same.

A radical new battery technology, a rearranging

of the taxes and a cooperation between states
and car producers got electrical cars out to the
consumers to a much larger degree during the
20s and the start of the 30s. Fossil fuels are still
available but extremely expensive.

The business community has achieved

remarkable energy optimisations but the
implementation of biomass as fuel for the
heavier vehicle has been a considerable driver
for the transition of the transport sector.
The demand for business transport has also
declined because people buy local produce to a
much greater extent and delivery drones do the
majority of the smaller package deliveries.

53
 5.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN STATE
The timeline for reaching the Green state in
2050 includes a series of stepping stones or
events that each contribute to the result. The
common denominator for these events that
are laid out on here is the strong state control
with a pronounced interaction between politics
and green technology linked with the presence
of collective values marking everything from
politics to human behaviour and societal
development.

Landslide victory for the Nordic Multi-storey

Citizens and People’s Party.
society The newly formed Nordic People’s Party’s
The renovatio
a breeding gro
manifesto includes higher taxes for financing of living in the
collective initiatives. The party wins by a in multi-storey
landslide at both the parliamentary election allowances ma
and municipal elections in Denmark – the same flats.
goes for sister parties in other Scandinavian
countries.

Transport and ’Driving plan for Green Transport’ Usage charge in the large cities Intelligent traffic

mobility The plan from the Ministry of

Transport puts the arrow in the
green direction for Danish transport.
A usage charge in the large cities
is imposed to respond to the
congestion.
Intelligent and adaptable traff
control systems have taken t
scene – it is illegal to drive a
yourself in the cities and on t
motorway.

The circular economy Green GDP The material deposit

Economy and The movement surrounding Denmark acts as a test country A deposit is introduced
circular economy picks up speed. and introduces a green GDP – a on many materials to
business This resonates in the business united EU follows two years later. support the circular
community. economy.

Supply security COP28 in Sydney Green 2040

Russia’s actions in connection COP28 delivers the most The EU research

Energy, climate with Ukraine and other Eastern ambitious climate goal so far: programme GREEN
and environment European countries leads to more
wishes for greater supply security
the agreement is signed by most
countries, including the USA and
2040 allocates
900 billion DKK for
for renewable energy. This becomes China. green research and
an important driver for international development.
climate and energy agreements.
Germany leads the way. Energy taxes

The EU introduces heavy taxes

on fossil fuels and CO2.

54 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

 buildings get a renaissance
on of multi-storey buildings provide
ound for a completely new way
e city – over half the Danes live
y buildings. Taxes and tax-free
akes it more attractive to live in
ffic
the
car
the
Test centre for wave energy
A public private cooperation
about test facilities for wave
energy is launched.
Global Food Council
Global Food Council gets the
authority to control larger parts
of the foodstuff production of
the world.
Urbanisation continues
Nine out of ten live in the large city regions
– the trend is global
Air traffic is scaled down
Copenhagen Airport closes a
terminal. Air traffic is under pressure
due to rising prices on fossil fuels
and taxes on plane travel.
The time of the drones The era of the mega
metropoles
Electric delivery drones have really
had their breakthrough and do 75% of the world’s green GDP is
deliveries of groceries and packages created in 2300 enormous city
for the Danes. regions
The North Sea oil The time of the offshore wind
turbines
The last drop of oil is extracted
from the North Sea – it is not Offshore wind turbines cover
profitable to search for new 70% of the Danish electricity
reserves. supply – this has made
Denmark self-supplying with
green energy.
European smart grid
The European smart grid is fully
integrated.
55
6
6. Green networks
6.1 2050: GOALS FROM ABOVE –
ACTION FROM BELOW
In 2050 the city and society development
in Denmark permeated by values and
behaviour that salute the individual freedom
of choice. The technological development and
digitalisation supported with ambitious goals
of green transition with a focus on networks,
integration and functionality across many
different green solutions have strengthened
the possibilities for citizens and businesses
individually and locally to have great autonomy
to make their own choices.
There is a lack of large cross-national decisions
about infrastructure that can link the large
cities and medium-sized cities functionally in
larger, functioning regions – but players and
systems are linked digitally.
Strong interaction between politics
and green technology
Individual values GREEN
and lifestyles NETWORKS
dominate
how people relate to
other groups and to
society as a whole
There are great differences between the
choice of solutions and how well the cities have
succeeded in upholding and strengthening their
attraction and ability to develop in competition
with the other cities.
Internationally, climate is high on the agenda.
The cooperation in the EU and internationally
takes its starting point in common and ambitious
goals for reduction of carbon emissions and
energy optimisation. But the framework is
not binding. Countries and cities, businesses
and citizens have the opportunity to choose
different ways to do the green transition based
on technological possibilities, differences in the
market and different traditions, cultures and
possibilities. Internationally several countries,
most of all China, have invested enormous
resources in becoming a leader in the field
of research and innovation in new green
technologies. In 2050 China’s dominant position
has great significance for the success of Danish
businesses in the field of cleantech. Based on
ambitious Danish ventures in cleantech clusters
and the export of green technology in the 10s
and 20s Danish businesses have had plenty of
time to focus on the development of Danish
strengths in the Chinese market. Thus they are
prepared for the fact that standards and the
direction of the development are very much set
by the Asian market in 2050.
In Denmark the climate is high on the agenda.
The less binding international frames suit the
Danish political self-perception well – here
the role of the state is particularly to unite the
nation around the common goals and leave
it to the market and citizens to deliver and
choose the solutions that live up to the overall
goals. A green GDP and circular economy have
been implemented and it is filled out by a green
lifestyle and behaviour amongst citizens and
businesses.
57
 There is a high degree of sorting and recycling
in the waste area but it expresses itself through
many different solutions. The energy supply
is diverse but with a high level of renewable
energy. Construction is largely green but also
very diverse and not very high. The most
important thing is that the new or adapted
buildings are energy efficient and are integrated
into the eco system of the large city.
There is agreement on the ambitious goals
for the green transition but there are large
variations and possibilities when it comes to
the different kinds of development in the cities.
Some grow dramatically, others decline.
The liberal framework gives the best
opportunities for growth in the four largest
cities and in the small towns. The innovative
possibilities and the market development
are best filled out by the large cities with
their critical mass of innovative businesses,
knowledge institutions and talent. The bigger,
the better. Copenhagen and Aarhus are
absolute growth centres, after that the growth
centres on Odense and Aalborg.
Aarhus differentiates itself by focusing strongly
on becoming a leading ’smart city’. This attracts
many start-ups globally since Aarhus is the
ideal place to test new smart city technology.
Aarhus is the place for technology’s first
movers – citizens as well as businesses. The
development inspires continuous discussions
about the frameworks for our private lives since
the smart city solutions gather large amounts of
information about the citizens.
The development conditions for the small towns
are also good but dependent on their particular
historical assets, unique amenity value and local
activists. The logic is that it does not take a lot
to create a success in a small town under the
58
existing conditions. Within the free boundaries,
bottom-up solutions and individual choices thrive
in the small town that have the will to succeed.
The medium-sized cities, however (the traditional
market towns) generally experience a stagnated
growth in 2050. Since state intervention and
and cross-national solutions are absent the
medium-sized cities are not sufficiently attached
to the largest cities and they in themselves
lack the critical mass of innovative businesses,
knowledge institutions and talent. At the same
time citizens and businesses expect the cities to
deliver when it comes to the common goals on
green transition and attraction that have been
largely drawn up – but they do not have the
resources. You could say that the medium-sized
cities are caught in being too small to utilise the
free boundaries to choose their own efficient
solutions and approaches to the green transition
while they are too large to have the possibilities
for local amenity value, quality of life, local
activists etc. that some of the smaller towns have.
Middelfart is one of a very few exceptions
amongst the medium-sized cities. With an early
long-term strategy shaped in the 10s the city
goes out of its way to attract smaller green tech
businesses through a green profiling of the
city. In 2050 they have succeeded in doing this
when other medium-sized cities, finding that
their number of inhabitants is falling, try to copy
Middelfart’s model. But it is hard since it has
been built up over several decades.
The logic for the business community is the
same as for the cities. In this market the large
businesses have all the prerequisites for utilising
the free boundaries and the less obtrusive state.
The smallest ones also thrive because they
have lower expenses and face fewer demands.
The medium-sized ones have a rough time in
the competition with big business and small
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
business. The localisation of the businesses
primarily happen in and around the largest cities
where talent and knowledge institutions are
localised with a certain critical mass.
There are, however, a number of small
businesses, particularly in the service sector,
that are localised in small towns and manage
to attract resourceful citizens because of their
unique location and amenity value. At the same
time a few small towns have turned into what is
internationally known as ’Company Cities’. This
means that their development is completely
tied to one large company which for historical
reasons is localised in the town. The outlines for
this as seen already during the 2010s and these
small towns do relatively well because of this.
Billund-LEGO is (still) the best example of this
2050. But there are also examples of an almost
pure Arla town, a Grundfos town and a Velux
town in Jutland in 2050.
FIGURE 6.1
Critical factors, Green networks 2050
INTERNATIONAL Climate
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Green economy
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Large-scale
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Cross-national
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Collective
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
Renewable energy
ENERGY AND CLIMATE Large-scale
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of
citizens’ green lifestyle
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY
Degree of diversity/variety
Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 2014
6.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED
The development came from below
At the end of 20s a breakdown in the
international climate negotiations have been
followed by more market responsive politics
controlling the broad frames and green
economic GDP goals. The development is
driven by the market and the commitment
of citizens’ groups, private businesses and
funds, multinational as well as national. It
is characteristic that the larger political
organisations have good intentions but that
it often takes many years to find a consensus
about actual agreements. For instance, this has
postponed the implementation of the European
smart grid for years. This has consequences for
the efficiency and execution but on the other
hand a society is created which is adaptable
to incorporate new technologies in solving the
challenges of society.
agenda
INTERNATIONAL Conflict level
NATIONAL The state’s
interference in the market
NATIONAL Climate agenda
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Degree of urbanisation
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Green transition
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES Growth
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES
Green transition
0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree,
2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree
59
 There is a good international market climate
for innovation and cooperation which is partly
driven by market pressure from customers
demanding individual solutions that function in
the complex market.
National solutions are challenged
The cross-national agenda has lost its
significance because local interests and
special interests dominate politics. The media
subsidies and license payments have been
abolished because they did not sufficiently
allowed for individual differences. This has
meant the death of the classic national media
which has been replaced by a blossoming of
local media and special interest media as well
as international media, both social and more
commercial ones. There is a great variety and
segmentation when it comes to what people
watch, listen to and read. For several years this
has had a knock-on effect on what people see
as being ’truth’ and ’reality’. The polarisation of
Danish society means that people can choose
their own ’truth’ and source of news.
The society of the individual does nonetheless
have citizens and businesses full of initiative and
the will to act, contributing actively to bottom-
up solutions for the green transition. The many
diverse green solutions have resulted in public
bodies going through dramatic changes in order
to adapt the new society structures.
Urbanisation is for the largest and
the smallest
The urbanisation trend has continued through
to 2050 but has lost its momentum since the
wild 10s and 20s when Copenhagen, Aarhus,
Odense and Aalborg sucked up almost all
economic growth.
Partly because of the challenges the large
cities have absorbed the migration and growth
60
and due to the lack of an efficient attachment
to the medium-sized cities that would
otherwise be able to help, a growing part of the
population wants to realise itself outside of the
largest city regions.
The politicians follow the values of the citizens
and support freedom of choice. Strong
individual wishes arise of having a local sense
of belonging to the life outside of the large
cities and the values of closeness and quality
of life that are valued here. The smallest towns
can offer this alternative, not the medium-sized
cities that struggle to offer the same life as the
largest cities to their citizens.
Therefore several small towns have great
success in branding themselves with unique
offers – the naturally beautiful areas along the
coasts are particularly popular. Others have
succeeded in building up small green societies
where energy, transport and waste solutions
function in a semi-closed cycle. There are,
however, small towns that have not managed
to differentiate themselves or make their own
green transition. They have experienced a lot of
population emigration and actual shutdowns.
The large cities are very aware of what other
large cities are doing and they show each
other what works and what does not. On the
surface the large cities look more and more
alike but when you look at the actual parts of
each city you see an extreme diversity and
multifunctionality with a mix of experiences,
business clusters, vertical foodstuff centres and
farms as well as living quarters side by side and
integrated in the largest cities. Parts of cities,
too, start looking more and more alike across the
large cities, so Østerbro looks like Östermalm in
Stockholm which again looks like Manhattan’s
Upper East Side in New York when it comes to
the solutions that are selected within energy,
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
transport and lifestyle. The communities with a
common interest are strong, not the community
as a whole. To a larger and larger degree we
identify across national borders rather than with
the national state.
The citizens want diversity
In 2050 consumers and citizens expect
individually adapted products and services,
both in the public and private sector. The
individualised behaviour of the citizens
is motivated and made possible by the
technological and digital development.
An enormous diversity of subcultures and
communities of interest are all struggling to
influence the design of society. A certain political
ability to adapt creates diversity in the city space
with many different green solutions rolled out.
It is generally acknowledged that local activists
and local organisations are essential for reaching
a durable green transition.
At the same time it is also accepted that the
varied green transition that is expressed here,
can have different effects on the attractiveness,
competitiveness and and economic wealth
of cities and local areas. For the authorities,
nationally and decentralised, the challenge is to
constantly be able to adapt the infrastructure
so the many solutions work with and not
against each other.
Technology supports diversity
In 2050, development is dictated by advanced
technology utilisation and an intense
digitalisation of all society and business
structures.
Renewable energy technological and
transport technological solutions are based
on technologies that encourage individual
and local adaptations as well as selections
and rejections. Big data, robot technology, 3D
print and innovations in the field of material
technology give new possibilities for local
production in Denmark, new possibilities in the
area of construction as well as transport and
energy supply.
At the same time it is significant for our
behaviour. 3D print has recreated the way we
consume. Smaller consumer goods that we
do not rent or lease are printed in degradable
materials and are often designed by the
consumer herself on interactive websites or
directly in the physical webshops.
The energy system is reorganised
In 2050 the energy supply in Denmark has
gone through a reorganisation and flexible
connections between many different solutions:
wind, biomass, sun, wave energy, hydrogen.
It began when the big Energy Agreement
from 2012 was reopened by the parties who
had agreed on it when falling energy prices
changed the agreement’s prerequisites. On
this background it was decided that the
state’s investments in offshore wind turbine
parks were to be halved. The lack of long-
term predictability resonates in the business
community and society which starts opening
up to several energy sourced as long as they
contribute to the goal of a green transition.
The low oil prices only last for a short time
however. Predictions of rising oil prices from
the International Energy Agency turned out to
hold up which meant an oil price of over 200
USD per barrel already in 2040. This led to
dramatic economic incitements for investing
in the many new energy technologies. Now
the energy is primarily produced decentralised
by citizens, businesses and city regions. It is
constantly a challenge to adapt the energy net
61
 to the development within the different solutions
but on the other hand both the market and the
politics are designed to have great openness
concerning this challenge. In order to make this
change possible there has been a politically
driven marked change of the energy tax system
so it pays to divide energy supply between cities
and businesses and thereby save energy and
choose new and local solutions.
Through the 20s the Danes have taken on
many green energy technologies. This put the
large central energy solutions under pressure
just like the politicians, in the 20s, were
seriously confronted with a tax problem when
a large part of the state’s budget was tied to
taxes on energy.
As early as 2015 a thorough review of the
Danish tax and subsidy system was carried out.
This led to a number of legislation changes
in the area. In 2023 Denmark implemented
an extensive tax reform which, after several
years of negotiations,  was implemented by
the parties behind it. The reform implemented
a simplified tax system which also had clear
incitements to the transitions to a fossil free
energy system.
The reform consisted of a tax divided into
three10
1) A resource tax
2) A tax following the environment and CO2
3) A tax following the national/local supply
security
After reorganising the tax system and by using
a new smart grid technology we have been
successful in establishing a system where
10
Inspirationsource: http://ing.dk/artikel/
fjernvarmedirektoer-og-raadgiver-danske-energiafgifter-
er-fuldstaendig-gakgak-160226
62
surplus energy in a local area can be sold to
other areas via the smart grid net. This system
is a particular advantage to Kalundborg, which
has invested for many years in utilising this.
Through new electricity cables to Sweden
(2025), Norway (2033) and Germany (2029
and 2042) Denmark has become fully
integrated in the European electrical system.
Denmark and Danish cities are thereby
connected to the rest of Europe in the energy
supply area which gives local opportunities to
balance energy and effect needs.
New economic playing rules
In 2050 new technological and digital innovations
as well as new materials have given new power
to the consumer culture. Particularly the 3D
The 3D printer
The 3D printer has constituted the 3rd industrial
revolution. We print everything either our small home
printers, at the local print station printing larger
products or via ordering online and having it delivered
to us.
At home we print toys, kitchenware, tools etc, while
larger appliances and furniture are handled by the
larger 3D printers. This has put pressure on the old
production industries and they are struggling to
reinvent themselves in new business models. This is
the same problem the music industry faced in the 00s.
In the hospitals, human organs are printed. When
larger humanitarian catastrophes occur 3D printers on
a large scale are utilised to print temporary huts but
also to reproduce themselves so that production can
be increased on site.
The 3D printer has also given challenges as in conflict
areas hand weapons are printed as needed.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
printer has made its entry and revolutionised the
production of everything from kitchen ware to
smaller houses. The new technology and new
materials create completely different economic
prerequisites and playing rules.
Public transport under pressure
The large collective and cross-national forms of
transport have been downgraded following the
unobtrusive role of the state and following the
breakthrough in the market for energy efficient
and individual modes of transport. Many different
types of solutions are in demand – electric
cars, hybrid cars, electrical bicycles and sharing
systems work side by side. Driverless vehicles
are also gaining ground. The petrol car is less
profitable as a mode of transport and gradually
gets a smaller and smaller share of the market
in the period through to 2050. At the charging
stations for electrical cars several solutions
exist side by side – different types of charging
technologies and battery change stations.
Electrical cars and buses are also an important
part of the integrated smart grid as they can
store the power when there is a overcapacity on
the energy net.
There is also great focus on being able to walk
and cycle as a mode of transport, particularly
in the large cities. In Copenhagen the new
Nordhavn is a reality as a part of the city without
any private car use whatsoever – and thereby
with no parking possibilities for cars.
When it comes to freight transport the situation
is that fewer goods are produced in countries
far away from Denmark. Robots, 3D printing,
digitalisation and new materials as well as an
increased focus on emission problems linked to
plan and ship freight have created a consumer
wish to buy, repair and share goods locally to
an extent so that considerable global trade and
transport have experienced a decline year by
year since the 30s.
A.P. Møller – Mærsk, which in the 2030s had a
great overcapacity of ships and was threatened
by bankruptcy as a result of the strong decline
in container traffic has through a strategy
process extended their focus to also comprise
passenger transport. In the 40s this change
turned out to be correct because it was realised
at the same time as the air traffic got under
increasing pressure for its large amounts of
carbon emissions. This moved a large proportion
of the long distance passenger transport from
planes to ships. Half of all container ships and
planes are taken out of service and moderne,
fast-going ships are built for passenger transport
and using sun and wind as their primary driving
force. Maersk’s new focus area has lifted the old
company to its previous glory.
Climate and environment in a local and
varied context
There is great prestige in being
environmentally friendly but it has to be done
in your own personal way. It is connected to
social status to produce your own foodstuff and
by cradle to cradle certified products as long
as it is possible to personalise services and
products. Together, the individualised products
and services contribute to the green transition
and obvious environmental improvements.
Large parts of agriculture, too, have managed
the transition and animal stock and the
cultivation of the earth is often organic, not
least to meet demand from the green cities
that do not yet have any local production
of foodstuffs. Most Danish cities have large
farms integrated in the cities, either vertically
or as a part of a plant that also serves other
purposes. Copenhagen, Aarhus and Aalborg
have established central fish and mussel
breeding stations that supply foodstuff for the
populations of the cities.
63
 6.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN NETWORKS
The events that have led Danish cities to
the Green networks society in 2050 are
characterised by coming from below in the
market or civil society. They are made possible
by public politics that has set up ambitious
goals for the green transition but has been just
as eager to give freedom of choice to citizens
and businesses when it comes to choosing
solutions for reaching these goals.

Citizens and Digital services Green roofs

society
Digital consumer and user
orientated services are booming
and their utilisation has really
become synonymous with quality
of life.
The citizens’ initiative ’Green
roofs’ is established as a large
venture subsidised by a fund. The
plan is that 60% of the vegetable
consumption in the cities should be
locally produced in 2035. The cities
support this and make public space
available for this purpose.

Transport and
mobility
Congestion in the large 20,000 electrical Sharing systems boom Driverless ca
cities cars
Shared car, shared flat, Car revolution
The congestion in the capital The small electrical shared tools. We share and the cities. It b
and other large cities limits cars have become rent out material goods like drive a car in
the growth the norm in the cities. never before.

Economy and
business Strong innovation power Build Local Green

Open source, open data, Big data
and free data drive an innovation
revolution where an undergrowth
of small innovative businesses
push out the big multinational
ones in all industries. Small is
beautiful again.
The Build Local Green initiative
with its focus on the use of
sustainable materials and 3D
printing in Danish businesses and
the whole value chain is launched
with great success.

Energy, climate
and environment The Energy Agreement Failed climate Reform of energy taxes
agreement
The Energy Agreement from The energy taxes are simplified
2012 is reopened by the parties A breakdown in order to give the best possible
who had agreed on it when in international conditions for the businesses
falling energy prices change negotiations, large and freedom of choice for the
the agreement’s prerequisites. cities and the market citizens.
Investments in offshore wind take the lead. Individualise
turbine parks are halved. The
lack of long-term predictability Sun, bio plant
resonates in the business and residentia
community. People choos
solutions.

64 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

 Welfare state under pressure
The financing of the welfare state
is under very strong pressure
from lower and lower income
from the North Sea.
ars
n – driverless cars move into
becomes illegal for individuals to
the cities and on motorways.
Bio economy cluster
A bio economy cluster is
established by crowdfunding in
the Scandinavian countries. The
cluster works to make valuable
products from leftover biomass
and organic waste.
ed energy supply
ts, mini windmills
al windmills are a hit.
se not to use central
Fewer m2 per city dweller
People’s demands on the size of
a flat have been minimised. From
an average of 52 m2 per Dane in
2013 to 45 m2 in 2038.
The need for mobility is
reduced
The digital possibilities
reduce the transport needs
of the Danes.
Water cluster
A Danish water cluster pools
resources and investments from
all of Scandinavia – it quickly
attracts scientists and businesses
in the water area from all over the
world.
Oil extraction is stopped
Denmark decides to completely
stop the oil and gas extraction
from the by now very outdated
rigs in the North Sea.
Virtual city sections
The cities are bursting with
diversity. At the same time the
individual subgroupings look
alike across cities globally.
Virtual global city sections are
developed, for instance Østerbro-
Østermalm-Notting Hill.
More jobs
Income statements show that
people’s income often comes
from several jobs and freelance
jobs.
European Smart Grid
The European smart grid is by
now fully integrated.
65
 CITY GREEN STATE
• Strong urbanisation, high growth
• An important hub for Scandinavia to
North Germany (Berlin and Hamburg)
• Much new infrastructure necessary – incl.
66
new trains and lines between metropoles
and large city areas in Denmark
• Development of all new residential and
business areas, small flats
• Location more important than size
• Very specialised business community and
concentration of talents
• Big business dominates but has moved
out of the centre
• Efficiency in pride of place – thus few and
Copenhagen
dominating solutions
• The talent is concentrated in Copenhagen
and often works specialised in large units
• Green transition: high and uniform
• Strong urbanisation, high growth
• With local light rail and fast train to
Copenhagen over Kattegat and to
Hamburg it is efficiently attached to the
surrounding world and an important centre
LARGE CITY REGIONS
for the Mid and Eastern Jutland city stretch
• Competition with Copenhagen about
talent and business is increasing but both
cities are strengthened by the Kattegat
fixed link
• Aarhus Airport is shut down
• Development of all new residential and
business areas in Aarhus, many small flats
• Large parts of central Aarhus kept car free
• Location at the centre and by the harbour
Aarhus
more important than size
• Very specialised business community
(green tech and trade) and a
concentration of talents for the whole of
the Jutland and Funen areas
• Big business dominates
• Efficiency in pride of place – so few and
dominating solutions
• Green transition: high and uniform,
centralised solutions
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
GREEN NETWORKS
• Strong urbanisation, high growth
• Digitalisation reduces the mobility need
and reduces the need for a new transport
infrastructure
• A lot of smart (city) public transport,
shared cars, ride-sharing
• The citizens find many individual solutions
• Existing public buildings (schools,
libraries, municipality) and large industrial
buildings in the city change their function
to flats and common areas
• More people live in small flats
• A lot of new small business (based on big
data, crowdsourcing, micro tasks)
• Green transition: high and varied
• Strong urbanisation, high growth
• Aarhus has the perfect size and mindset
in municipality, citizens and business
community to become an advanced smart
city at the highest level
• In cooperation between municipality,
large and small businesses and research
centres digital solutions are developed
that allow for smart solution for everything
from driverless cars, drones and energy to
water and waste management.
• The digital solutions allow the the citizens
more individual solutions and this makes
possible that the Aarhus area can absorb
the growth without housing crisis or
congestion problems
• Aarhus’ challenge is to create a
development that also gives a synergy
and interaction with the many medium-
sized cities close by that can see that
Aarhus runs away with all the growth or
that people move to small towns to live
• Many flats, primarily small, are built in
Aarhus
• Green transition: high and varied
GREEN GUERILLA
• Medium urbanisation, urban growth
• Less intercity transport
• Existing infrastructure upgraded
slightly
• More focus on cycling and walking
(individual DIY transport)
• The capital becomes multi-
centered and each quarter
develops differently and self-
centred
• Green transition: with great variety
between districts and organisations
• Business community focused on
what is local and user orientated,
many small local clusters
• People with same interests and
values share job and home more
locally
• Medium urbanisation and growth
• Existing infrastructure is not
upgrades and becomes outdated
• Interaction with surrounding cities
decreases. Development happens in
districts and small towns
• No fast train or Kattegat fixed link is
established
• Several large businesses create
their own green projects in the
harbour and in Aarhus East as a
protest against the municipal lack of
ability to realise projects
• Several districts develop
autonomously with many grassroots
and students
• Green transition: medium with a
large variety between districts and
organisations
• Business communities focused on
the local and user-orientated, many
small local clusters
• People with same interests and
values also share jobs and homes
more locally
GREEN COMPROMISES
• Medium urbanisation, medium
growth
• Existing infrastructure upgraded,
mobility increased between large
cities all over the country
• Copenhagen is an extended hub for
plane transport but not train
• Public transport solutions
• Big business dominates around the
capital area, has moved out of the
centre due to congestion
• The talent is spread out of
Copenhagen
• More young people move out of
Copenhagen to gain access to
service and clean air etc.
• Green transition on a low level
• Medium urbanisation, medium
growth
• Existing infrastructure upgraded with
a focus on the road networks
• The Aarhus area is developed for
cars with many parking opportunities
• Mobility between the large cities
increased
• Big business dominates but has
moved out of the centre of Aarhus
due to congestion
• Parts of Aarhus find it hard to
develop and are empty due to lack
of development, the relocation of the
business community and too high
price level for homes
• More youngsters move from Aarhus
to Copenhagen to get a job or to
the surrounding cities to get homes,
access to good service and clean air
• Green transition on a very low level
• Much trade and culture have moved
away from the city and it is hard for
Matrix for 10 Danish cities in 2050
the municipality to make the centre
of the city attractive
 CITY GREEN STATE
• Strong urbanisation and high growth
• Odense’s location is optimal to efficiently
be attached with the other large cities and
Copenhagen with efficient fast train lines
• Odense attracts large state subsidies and makes
a 10 year restoration plan for infrastructure The
mobility in Odense is primarily developed with
public transport and light rail
• Electric buses connect Odense with its
surroundings
• Many of the medium-sized and small towns are
having a hard time. Odense gets most of the growth
• Odense has become the service and trade centre
for all of Funen
Odense
• University of Southern Denmark is renamed
University of Funen and is concentrated in Odense
• The centre of Odense has gone through a big
change and has become more attractive to settle in
• Large businesses dominate and have localised
themselves around Odense and co-operates with
University of Funen and the municipality about
the development of clusters and tests of green
solutions
• The green transition is high and uniform
• Strong urbanisation and high growth
• Aalborg is connected to the rest of the country,
particularly thanks to effective fast train lines, with
electric buses connecting Aalborg to the rest of
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Northern Jutland
• Many of the medium-sized and small towns in
Northern Jutland are in difficulties
• Aalborg airport closes
• Large amounts of state investment and EU
programmes help Aalborg and all of the regions of
Northern Jutland. Aalborg University plays a central
role in green technology development, renewable
energy development and production of biofuels
• It is important to Aalborg that the harbour area is
Aalborg
developed with new smart housing and business
areas
• Big businesses work together with Aalborg
University to develop clusters and tests of green
67
solutions
• The city is in a position to attract state and EU
investment and can create space for new buildings
and businesses
• Green transition is high and uniform
GREEN NETWORKS
• Strong urbanisation and high growth
• With the exception of some small towns Odense is
the centre for practically all settlement and business
development at funen
• Odense gives room for city development where the
mobility is increased with a focus on both walking,
cycling, electric cars, driverless cars, drones and public
transport
• Odense attracts large private investments from funds
and the business community, making possible a
restoration of the city and the infrastructure over a
period of 20 years without burdening public budgets
• Odense experiences a strong business growth in
the foodstuff area, IT and transport solutions with a
blossoming of new small business. The businesses want
to be places near the centre, close to the university
• The Odense area continues to develop broadly to
detached house areas
• There is great focus on being different from Aarhus
and Copenhagen and branding the city on creating
space for individual freedom and the freer settlements
of families
• The level for the green transition is high but very varied
in Odense’s districts and close surroundings
• Strong urbanisation and high growth
• Aalborg, with the exception of some small towns, is
the centre for more or less all habitation and business
development
• Aalborg is the centre for a lot of smart city development
because there is a lot of new construction in the centre
and by the harbour. Digitalisation solves many of the
problems of mobility within the city limits
• Businesses utilise technology and common targets
to be exporters of renewable energy and high quality
foodstuffs.
• Many new small businesses develop into new clusters
(based on big data, crowdsourcing, micro tasks)
• There is a wide variation in the way the people of
Northern Jutland live, but they are connected through
technological solutions
• The Aalborg region is self-sufficient because of
renewable energy
• There is a lot of focus on separating themselves from
Aarhus and create space for individual freedom and
habitation
• The level for green transition is high, but there is much
variation between Aalborg’s regions and surroundings
GREEN GUERILLA
• Medium level for urbanisation and growth
• Odense grows, but the growth is challenged
due to lack of a common goal and
uncoordinated activities. It hampers the
effect of the initiatives.
• Transport between the city and the country
is by individual responsibility
• Congestion slows Odense’s development
and the city is run-down
• A series of large projects from the 10s have
been abandoned
• Citizens’ groups and a few big businesses
have taken responsibility for their own green
transition, but they are uncoordinated and
lack effectiveness other than in the local
area
• Odense region Vollsmose is already carbon-
neutral by 2030 and is a role model for
similar regions in other parts of the country
and across the EU
• Odense grows at the expense of the other
medium-sized towns on Funen, but is itself in
strong competition and loses talent to both
Aarhus and Copenhagen
• Medium level for urbanisation and growth
• Aalborg is growing, but growth is challenged
by lack of a common goal and uncoordinated
activities. It hampers the effect of initiatives.
• Transport between city and countryside is
the individual’s responsibility
• Overcrowding restricts citizens’ groups, and
big businesses have taken responsibility for
green transition.
• Low-lying city and housing areas are flooded
• Aalborg is to a lesser degree connected to
the surrounding towns, and there is major
inequality across sections of the population.
• Aalborg grows at the expense of the
medium-sized towns in Northern Jutland,
but it is itself in close competition and losing
talent to both Aarhus and Copenhagen
GREEN COMPROMISES
• Medium level for urbanisation and growth.
Rural districts and the small towns lose their
population. The medium-sized towns in
Funen stay as they are and their development
occurs in relation to Odense’s
• Strong focus on growth means that all green
transition is pushed to the background
• Odense is just a big Danish city and the city’s
growth is hard pressed by the Kattegat fixed
link and that part of the development goes
outside of the city and is located in the more
scenic parts of Funen or outside of Funen
altogether
• Major emigration of talent to Copenhagen
when studies are completed
• Public transport solutions are made more
effective, but private motoring is prioritised
across Funen
• Technological development is driven by big
businesses and is not pointed towards green
transition and is not financially supported by
public authorities
• Central Odense is hard pressed that trade is
moving out of the city
• Medium level for urbanisation and growth.
Inhabitants emigrate from the country
districts and the small towns. The medium-
sized towns in Northern Jutland hold firm
and their development occurs in conjunction
with Aalborg
• Strong focus on growth means that green
transition is pushed into the background
• Aalborg airport develops into Jutland’s major
junction. This is important for the inhabitants
and business localisation
• Public transport solutions, but private
motoring is prioritised in Northern Jutland
• Technological development is driven by big
business and is not directed towards green
transition and is not supported by public
authorities
• There is major focus on adaptation to climate
change
• Parts of central Aalborg and the area around
the harbour are under pressure from the
trade centres outside of the city.
 68
CITY GREEN STATE
• Under pressure because of its location
and negative population development
• Lacks national prioritising of Sønderborg
and the Southern Jutland region
because of the effectiveness agenda
• Green transition: High
• Stagnation in growth
Sønderborg
• Connects effectively with the Aarhus
region and included in the Eastern
Jutland city stretch and is coping well
• Has prioritised an extreme green
public policy for municipal buildings
amongst other things, that is attracting
international notice
• Green transition: High
Fredericia
• High growth
• Has connected itself to the Eastern
Jutland city stretch and to Odense
• Green transition: High
MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS (MARKET TOWNS)
• Growth
Middelfart
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
GREEN NETWORKS
• Loses significance as a self-sufficient
town in the national and regional city
geography
• Is put under pressure by big city growth
and the small local towns
• Green transition is hard
• Loses its significance as Aarhus and
Odense are taking business and
inhabitants away
• Is challenged by Middelfart, which is
attracting many well-educated citizens
• Green transition: High
• Has focused long-term on green values
that attract well-educated people to the
town
• Has specialised its business community
and attracts smaller, specialised green
tech businesses
• Green transition: Very high
GREEN GUERILLA
• Sønderborg has driven an
underground movement for green
transition
• The town has created its own
green ecosystem with many local
initiatives
• Attracts green idealists
• Green transition: High
• Loses its significance as Aarhus and
Odense are taking business and
inhabitants away
• Has not been able to become
specialised
• Number of inhabitants has fallen
• Green transition: Medium
• Loses its significance as Aarhus and
Odense are taking business and
inhabitants away
• Has not been able to become
specialised
• Number of inhabitants has fallen
• Green transition: Medium
GREEN COMPROMISES
• Connected effectively to Odense
and Aarhus and to Flensburg-
Hamburg by rail and motorway
• The airport develops with help
from big businesses and localised
clusters in the area
• Develops as a town of education
• Green transition is generally low
however
• Connected effectively to Odense
Matrix for 10 Danish cities in 2050
and Aarhus and to Flensburg-
Hamburg by rail and motorway
• Green transition: Low
• Connected effectively to Odense
and Aarhus and to Flensburg-
Hamburg by rail and motorway
• Green transition: Low
 CITY GREEN STATE
• Is connected to Copenhagen and Aarhus
with the new Kattegat fixed link
• The Kattegat fixed link has made
Kalundborg an attractive town for
commuters
• Green transition: High
• Growth
Kalundborg
• Under pressure because of location
and size coupled with lacking effective
connections, not prioritised cross-
nationally
• Green transition is hard
• Stagnation in growth
Ringkøbing-Skjern
• Connected to Copenhagen, but loses its
MEDIUM-SIZED TOWNS (MARKET TOWNS)
significance annually as a self-sufficient
town centre/unit
• Green transition: High
• Growth
Høje-Taastrup
69
GREEN NETWORKS
• When the Kattegat fixed link did not
appear, Kalundborg slowly lost its
significance
• Numbers of inhabitants declining
• Green transition: High
• The town is re-branded as a tourist
destination
• Loses significance as a self-sufficient
town in the national and regional city
geography
• Has difficulty attracting businesses to
the town – Aarhus and Aalborg have
better conditions
• Green transition: High
• Is extremely well-connected to
Copenhagen
• Is a commuter town for people who work
in the capital
• Green transition: High
GREEN GUERILLA
• Has created a carbon-neutral town
by using long-term strategies and
cooperation
• Is an international best practice
example of a modern town with high
quality of life and green awareness
in everything that is done
• The green image attracts both
businesses and inhabitants to
the town
• Green transition: Medium
• Number of inhabitants has fallen
markedly after the new generation
moved to the big cities
• Considering what to do with all the
empty houses, business buildings
and municipal buildings
• Green transition: Low
• Loses significance as a self-
sufficient town in the national and
regional city geography
• Green transition: Medium
GREEN COMPROMISES
• Experiences growth as a commuter
town
• Connects to Aarhus and
Copenhagen and other big city
regions by a combination of bridge
and train connection over Kattegat
• Green transition: Low
• Has managed to attain good traffic
connections to Aarhus in particular
• Grows by attracting the inhabitants
and businesses from the many
smaller towns in the vicinity
• Green transition: Low
• Is even better connected to the
capital region
• Grows by attracting inhabitants and
businesses
• Green transition: Low
7
7. Green guerilla
7.1 2050: MARKET AND CIVILIAN
SOCIETY ARE IN CONTROL
In 2050, green transition in Denmark is
characterised by individual market players
and citizens’ groups taking responsibility
and defining targets and conditions. There
is an absence of state control and common
overview and coordination. The result is an
enormous variety with  thousands of larger and
smaller local projects, which separately make
a difference, but do not integrate or keep to
anything other than realising their own goal.
Individual values
and lifestyles
dominate
how people relate to
other groups and to
society as a whole
GREEN
GUERILLA
Weak interaction between politics
and green technology
The backdrop for this purely market dominated
bottom-up approach to green transition is the
political system’s drawn out inability to act. This
is international, in the EU and in Denmark.
On the international agenda and in the EU,
climate issues are only heard every six months
and often in connection with the proviso of how
to avert the consequences of more unstable
weather and more climate refugees.
The discussions never lead to a consensus on
common targets, let alone any form of binding
agreements. At the same time, the international
agenda is characterised by a high level of
conflict with a series of regional conflicts in
Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa
that engage Russia, the EU, China and the USA.
In a world without targets and means for green
transition, and with focus on other problems,
there is not much of an opportunity for a little
country like Denmark to go it alone and be more
ambitious than the rest of the world. And so, it is
not the approach Danish politicians have chosen.
The state’s leader role phased out during the 20s
and by 2050 it lacks focus and action.
It has an immediate effect on business invest-
ment and innovation which begins avoiding the
cleantech sector. It means that green technology
is not on the list of biggest Danish export
groups in 2050, despite there being substantial
interest from large city development projects in
countries like China, India, Brazil and many of the
African growth economies.
A green GDP and the circular economy is still
something that can be discussed, but there is
no political intention to go in that direction for
Denmark as a whole.
The largest cities attract growth, but it is not
followed by high ambitions for green transition.
Congestion, lack of housing, water, energy
and other challenges linked to with population
growth in the larger cities are tackled poorly
locally and without large public investment in
infrastructure, construction, water, waste or
energy supply.
71
 It diminishes population growth and economic
growth for businesses that cannot be absorbed
due to the lack of thinking about the big picture
in regards to green transition. Technological
development is therefore more anarchistic, and
it is diverse in the way it is distributed and used
both in and outside of Denmark.
Construction is spread out and varied, but not
always green. Energy supply is large-scale and
outdated with a relatively low level of renewable
energy due to a lack of state ambition. It has,
however, created the foundation for a simmering
revolt in the form of independent initiatives
from a few large businesses and active citizens’
groups. Special recycling facilities connected to
large businesses locally and small local windmill
and solar panels are examples of initiatives that
come from the bottom. But it is disconnected
from the existing public energy system and
without state support solutions or economic
incentives. It is carried solely by the wishes of
the market players in the individual projects
that make a difference to the local climate and
environment.
Without cross-national solutions in the areas of
transport and energy, the medium-sized towns
are disconnected from the growth in the big
cities and more or less lose their significance.
Many of the local initiatives find their place in the
progressive quarters of the big cities with a high
ratio of young, resourceful talent or in the small
towns with large amenity value, committed locals
and small businesses who can gather interest in
and capital for their projects. The medium-sized
towns, the classic market towns, find it difficult
competing with both the large cities and the
small towns and they are seriously trapped.
72
7.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED
International development out
of balance
The trends concerning liberalisation,
fragmentation and individualisation that can
be found in Denmark are global. There are
many initiatives for green transition, but the
initiatives are not coordinated. As a result the
development towards green transition is not
consistent or continuous over time.
Some regions of Russia and North Africa are
”global grey holes” with a strong dependency
on fossil fuels. Other regions, including several
in China, are almost carbon-neutral. Regions
in other countries are inspired by these world
leaders and have, in some cases, had success
becoming green. When something is large-
scale, leadership is often lacking when it comes
to transforming the whole country.
After several unsuccessful climate top
meetings, international cooperation concerning
climate and the environment broke down in
the 20s. There is some trade with emissions
rights, which increases the differences between
regions and countries.
Development ”on average” moves slowly
towards a green world, but global warming
continues. Proactive green areas/regions
manage to remain resistant and defy strong
weather and high water levels. Other regions
have emptied of people.
In 2050, there is no clear agenda with clearly
defined questions ordered by common
importance. Instead there are a multitude of
questions that are very important for some, but
irrelevant to others.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
Growth and GDP development are generally
high on the agenda in many countries and
regions as there is strong competition between
different parts of the world, with each one
wanting to protect their own citizens first.
Development cannot be run from
Christiansborg
Even though Danish society is green in certain
areas, it is on a case-basis, where ‘exotic’
examples of local green transition can be
found. This is in regions and quarters that were
previously profiled and specialised in going
green. Green transition is therefore strongly
differentiated. In a few areas a total green
transition and carbon-neutrality happens, but
other regions have more or less stood still since
the 2010s.
Several small towns have come a long way
in their green transition due to strong local
initiative. But in the medium-sized and big
cities there is still a deep dependency on
“black” energy supply and transport forms.
The predominant challenge for Denmark and
most city regions is to protect their economic
competitiveness. There are different ways of
doing this.

FIGURE 7.1
Critical factors, Green guerilla 2050

INTERNATIONAL Climate
agenda
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Green economy INTERNATIONAL Conflict level

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY NATIONAL The state’s

Large-scale interference in the market

TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY

Cross-national NATIONAL Climate agenda

TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY

LARGE CITY REGIONS
Collective
Degree of urbanisation

ENERGY AND CLIMATE LARGE CITY REGIONS

Renewable energy Green transition

ENERGY AND CLIMATE Large-scale MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES Growth

CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES

citizens’ green lifestyle Green transition
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY
Degree of diversity/variety
0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree,
Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 2014 2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree

73
 Diverse cities and regional development
Urbanisation continues strongly but with a
certain amount of ”lifestyle movement” from
the big cities to smaller, sleepy towns. Some
of the medium-sized towns have also had an
increase in population again. Amongst other
things, there is a green wave of former big city
dwellers that have moved out to Denmark’s
carbon-neutral towns Kalundborg and
Sønderborg, that have both worked intensely
to realise and brand themselves as centres
of green transition and quality of life (beyond
growth). In Sønderborg, there has been
success in supporting a green underground
movement, and the town creates its own green
eco-systems with many local initiatives. The
good initiatives are kept within the town’s
boundaries, however.
While the big cities rumble on with all their
advantages, there is a large difference in the
groups of small or medium-sized towns as to
how well they are doing. Some of the small
towns experience growth in line with their
change to a specialised society, where they
have prioritised differently and therefore attract
very different types of people.
Local products are popular in the big city just
like in the smaller towns, and several parts of
the city are self-sufficient when it comes to
foodstuffs. Big city centres are getting bigger
and smaller – at the same time. Whilst more
and more live in the city in general, the bigger
cities tend to divide up into smaller quarters.
These quarters are very different and attract
different sub-cultures.
The capital has become multi-centred, where
different lifestyle groups have each a centre
for ”their” openhagen, and the differing basic
values make their mark on behaviour. Nørrebro
in Copenhagen has prioritised a green
transition course of action and is focused on
74
creating opportunities for ”guerilla gardening”,
while Frederiksberg doesn’t prioritise green
transition to a high degree.
The difference in living standards between the
cities and the quarters continues to widen.
What is in it for me?
After a lengthy period of low economic
growth, many countries in Europe, including
Denmark, decided to introduce comprehensive
privatisation to strengthen competitiveness
and reduce the public expenditure. Common
obligations through a comprehensive welfare
state were generally considered to be
unaffordable in Europe. Instead there was
confidence that individuals and businesses had
the ability to, and would take responsibility for,
creating prosperity for themselves, and through
this also for others.
Society is more individualistic in 2050 than
ever before. Behaviour is marked by an
”anything goes” culture, with many smaller
groups and sub-cultures with completely
different lifestyles. There is a high degree of
tolerance for diversity and variety is extensive.
Denmark is a multicultural country with a high
level of immigrants following the liberalisation
of movement in the EU in the 2020s. There is
vast material inequality between the different
groups as politics is not designed to create
economic parity.
The Danes identify themselves primarily
through taking part in shared interest
communities. Danish club life is practically
non-existent and looks nothing like what it
did in the 10s. instead, people organise things
informally, temporarily and spontaneously
with the motto ”what’s in it for me?”, where
organisations compete with each other for
casual individuals. Big co-operative projects
(public-private cooperation, OPP) are
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
conspicuous by their absence. The party
election system is changed to an individual
election system.
The education system has become fragmented
on all levels with a high occurrence of very
specialised units and prioritising of informal
and self-taught skills. Private schools and
private universities are widespread and offer
different lines of education.
Many people have taken personal responsibility
for their own education and do not take part in
the formal education system.
The many wasted technological
opportunities
Constant technological development and
its diffusion is a powerful driver for the
international economy. Technological
development has many facets and happens
quickly, but the lack of clear political
rules blocks breakthroughs and uniform
technological solutions. Solutions on a smaller
scale are profitable and have many applications,
but larger solutions do not spread as wide.
Land use, in particular local supply, plays
a large role in technical development. But
”cultivation” does not always look the same as
in 2010s.
Small private research institutes, NGOs, towns
and citizens’ networks drive technological
development forward, which means that the
new technology can primarily be used in a few
specific networks, quarters or cities.
Welfare state and job market under
pressure
Advanced robot technology and automation
has revolutionised the economy and world as
a workplace. Many jobs have been digitalised,
and large groups in society are out of the work
market – but new job functions have been
formed.
The welfare society is under great pressure.
Publicly financed and publicly driven
businesses and institutions have been quickly
phased out in line with individualised Danes
feeling less bound to look after their fellow
citizens’ welfare.
Example of decentralised private energy
production – Arla’s biogas facility
Already in 2015, Arla began a biogas facility
close to two production locations in Videbæk.
The facility produced 31 m3 mill. biogas/year,
equivalent to 16.4 m3 mill. natural gas. In other
words, equivalent to the heating usage of
12,000 houses. The facility was a part of Arla’s
strategy that 50% of the company’s energy
usage in 2020 should come from renewable
energy sources.
The facility was expanded in 2031 in order to
double capacity as the demand for biogas was
still rising.
Arla’s initiative illustrates a broader trend that
businesses should take the lead to reach their
own targets on green transition – independent
of the central market’s actions.
Source: http://www.arla.com/da/Baredygtighed/Miljo-
strategi-2020/Biogasanlag/
75
 The Danish business community has many
facets and is a strong entrepreneurial society.
Innovation is strong, but opportunities to create
larger, successful businesses are lacking.
Denmark is in many ways a country with many
small, highly specialised businesses.
Single city regions have cultivated their
own strengths, and they compete in the
marketplace, especially nationwide. Smaller
city regions experience a strong development
thanks to their proximity to businesses and
entrepreneurs.
Divided energy supply
Division of energy supplies marks Denmark in
2050. Parts of the energy supply have reached
total transition, whilst others use old fossil
fuel technologies. The good initiatives driven
by individuals, NGOs and businesses lack
integration with the existing central energy
system. For example, many large businesses
produce their own energy, but it cannot be
integrated with the rest of the energy net,
which has not had the technological upgrades
needed in order to support it.
For those that can afford it or live in the right
region, it is possible for individual households
to be self-sufficient with electricity. In smaller
towns especially, the roofs of the houses are
covered with solar panels that, together with
private wind energy, is enough to make a
household self-sufficient energy-wise.
76
Energy is used based on the individual’s or the
household’s needs without much consideration
for what is sustainable for the country as
a whole. Large sub-cultures have reached
green transition on the basis of better energy
usage with the aim of better existence later
on. They do not, however, try on a larger scale
to influence others to transform their energy
usage.
The car survives, but is challenged
sporadically
The car is the preferred form of transport, but
it can be found in many different versions –
electric, hydrogen, hybrid, amongst others.
These drive side by side, but create big
congestion challenges as integration across
the board is lacking. It goes hand in hand with
the prediction the EU made 35 years ago,
which showed an increase in private motoring
through to 2050. See figure 7.2.
FIGURE 7.2
Passenger transport (g/km)
Public transport Private motoring
Source: EU energy transport and GHG emission trends 2050
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
In the medium-sized and large cities, the
bicycle has taken over the urban landscape.
Parallel with the bicycle are other forms
of individual transport, but because the
infrastructure is neither uniform nor optimal
to support them, they remain used primarily in
sub-groups.

Public transport has not developed since public

investments have not been a priority. In some
city regions profiled on this, normal transport
options can be found, which can be booked
to take groups of people on a custom-made
trip via an booking system. For those that can
afford a private jet, it is the preferred form
of transport. Kastrup has lost its function as
a central airport and has been replaced by
smaller local airports.

Disintegration can also be seen in business

transport, where diesel trucks and the latest
electric cars drive side by side depending on
whether the business is profiled as a ”green”
business or more orientated towards price
competition. A large part of goods transport
that was once done by truck has been replaced
by delivery drones that deliver goods directly
to households. A lack of regulation means that
the drones are more common in some regions
than others.

77
 7.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN GUERILLA
These events that have lead through to the
society we have in 2050 all have the common
feature that they are driven completely by the
market and civil society and practically in revolt
against a state incapable of making decisions.
They are uncoordinated and generally out of
line with each other and with the traditional
solutions that exist for historic reasons.

Citizens and Democratic crisis Local autonomy

society Political inertia and a low Cities raise their self-sufficiency
electoral turnout to general and at the cost of the state. Economic
local elections of under 50% growth is highly prioritised in the
cities.

New transport Challenges in congestion More citizens’ initiatives an

Transport and agreement
As there is a need for integration
business models for transp

mobility The agreement on across the different forms of Car-pooling, car sharing and
TogfondenDK (Train transport, congestion in the cities like are attractive for the citiz
Fund DK) is broken is an increasing problem that It puts the public transport sy
as it is seen to be too slows down mobility and growth. under pressure.
expensive and too
collective and one-sided.

Privatisation wave Strong innovation Public educatio

Economy and after the crisis of
business 2008-2016 Open source, open data, big data
and free data drive the innovation
The dismantling
institutions beca
Denmark lowers revolution where a group of challenges to fin
progressive taxation small innovative businesses put radical change in
and social expenditure pressure on the multinationals Informal qualifica
in order to make in all branches. Small is beautiful
the economy more again.
competitive.

Energy, climate Energy diversity Unsuccessful climate top

and environment The number of solar panels for
private households rises, as does
local wind power. Locals take
even more responsibility for their
own energy supply. This puts the
national energy agreement under
pressure.
meeting
Disagreement between states
leads to a climate top meeting.
They fail to reach a binding
agreement.

78 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

 Social inequality increases Urbanisation

Social inequality increases: large Continued urbanisation but

differences between towns, city an increase in population in
quarters, regions and ethnic certain small towns and rural
groups. districts that have specialised
successfully.

nd Public routes are

port dismantled

the The consequence of a

zens. reduction in passengers on
ystem public transport – private
players take control without
public money.

on under pressure Urban land use in the city Global workforce

of education Some quarters raise production The workforce is global, with

ause of the of their crops. Vertical farming is lots of movement between
nd financing and common. geographical regions and large
n the job market. wage differences.
ations in focus.

Kalundborg, Sønderborg and Energy self-sufficient

Copenhagen carbon-neutral
30% of Danish households are
The cities are carbon-neutral after energy self-sufficient.
many years of effort.

79
8
8. Green compromises
8.1 2050: GROWTH FOR THE STATE
AND THE COMMUNITY
In 2050 the state will be strong, supported
by the return of collective values into society.
The Danes do not see CO2 emissions and
climate change as a threat. Instead, several
decades of low growth, gradual wealth and
welfare reductions and a general rise in the
international conflict level have made the
Danes stand together with a strong state and
nationwide, collective solutions that prioritise
economic development and growth more than
green transition. The same trends and patterns
can be seen in the majority of other EU and
OECD countries, including China.
Collective values
and lifestyles
dominate
how people relate to
other groups and to
society as a whole
GRØNNE
KOMPROMISSER
Weak interaction between politics
and green technology
Through to 2050 global NGOs have tried
again and again to put green transition on the
agenda but with no luck since new international
and geopolitical conflicts formed the agenda.
Unease in Russia and Eastern Europe that
started with Russia’s annexing of Crimea and
the unrest in Ukraine in 2014 continued long
into the 2020s. Not until 2024 were negotiation
and political stability between Russia, EU and
USA finally put on the agenda.
Following this ”Russian crisis”, a widespread
wish arose in the majority of EU countries that
they did not want to be dependent on gas from
Russia. As a consequence of this there was a
rise in the demand for fossil fuels and Denmark
once again began investing heavily in fuel
extraction in the North Sea. The same trend
towards a new fossil fuel strategy was also
seen in other Western countries, and the USA
was seen as role model with their successful
extraction of shale gas.
At the same time, the years from 2015–2040
were heavily influenced by a number of global
and international crises and conflicts. Several
of these were caused by climate change that
caused mass migration and a stream of refugees
together with a battle for resources as large
areas became uninhabitable. The reaction to this
in Denmark and other countries more fortunate
with their climate was economic support to
the affected regions and helping to prepare
other countries for the incoming refugees. The
development is not connected politically with
the man-made climate change. Other challenges
are seen as more important.
With a strong state and cross-national and
collective solutions that prioritise economic
development throughout the country, there is no
focus on green transition. Regardless, by 2050,
Denmark has reached a 60% reduction in CO2
and a 60% independence of fossil fuels. The
reason for this is continued development and
implementation of a central energy system
for the large cities based on district heating,
natural gas, combined heat and power stations,
windmills on land and turbines at sea, large-
scale solar power and municipal waste systems.
81
 There is focus on connecting the medium-sized
and small towns to the capital, Aarhus, Odense
and Aalborg so opportunities for growth can
reach the whole country. The consequence of
this has been that urbanisation trends, with the
until now widespread migration and growth in
the largest cities, lose some of their power. It is
not enough to stop the urbanisation, however.
The largest cities still continue to grow, but
the emigration from the smaller cities is less
dramatic, and they receive the inhabitants from
the small towns, which generally recede.
The low green transition ambition of the
politicians sits well with the wishes of the
majority. Many new buildings are constructed,
spread out, different and rarely green. Energy
supply is large-scale. Focus continues on
burning fuel and distant heating with a low level
FIGURE 8.1
Critical factors, Green compromises 2050
INTERNATIONAL Climate
agenda
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Green economy
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Large-scale
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Cross-national
TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY
Collective
ENERGY AND CLIMATE
Renewable energy
ENERGY AND CLIMATE Large-scale
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY Degree of
citizens’ green lifestyle
CITIZENS AND SOCIETY
Degree of diversity/variety
Source: DAMVAD og Kairos Future, 2014
82
of recycling and renewable energy. Transport
is both public and cross-national, but without
a preference concerning private motorists.
Hybrid cars are normal, but electric cars have
not had the breakthrough that was expected
in the 2010s. The Danish business community
is comprised mainly of small businesses and
the occasional large one. They are located over
the entire country, but with a tendency to be
concentrated in the major regions around the
capital, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg.
8.2 THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED
The international climate agenda is
downgraded
EU, USA and China are the dominant powers
in 2050. Russia has not yet recovered following
the fiasco in Crimea and in Ukraine. The
INTERNATIONAL Conflict level
NATIONAL The state’s
interference in the market
NATIONAL Climate agenda
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Degree of urbanisation
LARGE CITY REGIONS
Green transition
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES Growth
MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES
Green transition
0 = Low degree, 1 = Lesser degree,
2 = Some degree, 3 = High degree
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
occupation of these regions came with a high FIGURE 8.2
price tag and were eventually given up on after Global energy mix 2050
many years of Russian recession. Ukraine –
including Crimea – can now celebrate the 15th
anniversary of their liberation.

Economic growth in line with the GDP target

is at the top of the global agenda along with
conflict management between the major global
powers. NGOs are working globally, as well
as locally, to put the issue of green transition
on the agenda, but time after time new
international and geopolitical conflicts hijack
the agenda. Conflicts and the immediate need
for problem resolution have been partly caused
by climate change, that causes mass migration
and streams of refugees because areas are
beginning to be barren or flooded.
Green transition is an old, persistent dream for
some, but far back in the consciousness for the
majority.
A breakthrough is hindered by a common
feeling that green transition is not cost-
effective. Adaptation is prefered to fundamental
change. Economists agree that it is more
profitable to give up the regions that are no
longer inhabitable.
Therefore, on a global level, no consensus has
been reached about the importance of green
transition. In the OECD’s statement on the
structure of global energy, fossil fuel use is
more than 75%, just like the OECD projected as
early as 2014, see figure 8.2.
Growth – growth and more growth
Green transition is given a lower priority in
Denmark because of the more pressing problem
concerning sustainable economic growth, climate
refugees and payment for public services following
the economic recession, amongst other things.
Fossil RE Nuclear and others
Source: OECD environmental outlook 2050
Conservative and national collective values
dominate citizens’ behaviour and the politics.
Green transition is therefore not a common
focus for citizens and politicians. For many,
other problems are more pressing. Above
all else, the national policy of wanting
to strengthen growth and the economic
development together with fighting rising
unemployment is dominant.
There are some groups that have an interest
in green transition. Following global climate
and environmental disasters, De Grønne (the
Greens) have reached 15% of votes in the two
most recent parliamentary elections. But the
Venstre (Denmark’s LiberaL Party), Dansk
Folkeparti (Danish People’s Party) and De
Radikale (The Danish Social Liberal Party)
govern in a large coalition in order to lift
economic growth. Therefore, the Greens have
relatively little influence.

83
 The big cities grow regardless
It is the larger cities that grow and are the
driving force in economic development, even
though it is nationwide initiatives, support
and redistribution that maintain life in the
small and medium-sized towns. Despite public
initiatives and support systems, people move
for employment and better access to private
services in the bigger cities.
People are also anticipating what will happen
on the weather front and are moving in good
time to regions that can cope with warmer,
wetter and more extreme weather. Outside of
Denmark, there are whole cities that dwindle,
not least those in Southern Europe and
around the Mediterranean. There is pressure
on Scandinavian cities to take a global
responsibility and open borders to immigration,
which part of the population is against.
The largest cities are structured to create
maximum efficiency, but there has been
insufficient foresight to take into account the
climate changes and their effects. There are
opportunities to set some of the larger projects
in motion.
For example, Aalborg has built a new area with
tower block gardens that help with indoor
environments, irrigation systems and supplying
the inhabitants with vegetables.
Denmark for the people
In Denmark, the conservative and often
populist currents have dominated the last
decade. When unrest began to take hold across
the world, stabile growth was what was strived
for more than anything else, not least to meet
the demands of the aging population. Despite
some resistance from certain groups, Denmark
took on a great deal of responsibility by
84
accepting large groups of migrants, primarily as
an opportunity to create population growth in
Denmark and to balance the high percentage
of elderly in its population. What is Danish is
seen as ’right’, and this creates antagonism
between ’old’ and ’new’ Danes.
Denmark has become more centralised and
top-down orientated since the 20th century. A
few large cities and organisations dominate and
control development. International cooperation
within the UN and EU is important, and Denmark
follows central directives to a high degree.
Club activities thrive, especially in the big
organisations, and symbolise our capacity
to lift society as a whole. Occasionally there
are conflicts, for example like when union
LO works primarily for job growth, whilst the
environmental movement works for green
growth and green transition.
The state and big business control the
technology
Large international firms drive technological
development. Above all, development of big
data has resulted in having more control
over the climate changes, in that there is
earlier observation and registration of coming
floods, hurricanes and more. Technological
development also assists protection against
catastrophes, but we have given up trying to
reduce global warming.
Automation has created greater efficiency –
but it has been so strong that large groups
of people are left out of the job market. The
large global businesses have more or less a
monopoly on technological development, which
leads to them dictating which technologies are
used in society. The politicians acknowledge
their dependence on these giants. In particular,
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
Google and the Chinese BiDaiXio dominate FIGURE 8.3
digitalisation. Ray Kurzweil, who as early as Dependence on imported energy in the EU, 2010 – 2050
2005 predicted that the ’singularity’ would
breakthrough in 2045, turned out not to be
right. It is true that people and machines have
moved towards each other with great strides
since the beginning of the century, but people
still have the upper hand.

Continual dependence on fossil fuels

The Danish energy system is a hybrid between
fossil fuels and partially green energy forms.
Offshore wind turbines produce considerable
amounts of power, but a one-sided focus on
this energy source makes energy supplies
vulnerable when there is no wind. Denmark
has had success with its natural gas venture Source: EU energy transport and GHG emission trends
in 2050.
and has replaced most of its coal based power,
though there are still coal plants that support
energy production. Biomass became a scarce Consumer behaviour is controlled by economic
resource internationally and too expensive to assumptions. The majority buy energy where it
burn, especially when the foodstuffs question is cheapest, which in many cases is the black
that followed on from climate change became energy.
important.
Economic growth obstructing green
New extraction methods and new areas transition
with fossil fuels have opened up for several The traditional GDP target is still a leading
centuries of using fossil fuels. But the prices directive for the welfare of a nation. Strong
have risen greatly due to the rise in demand. international competition on price and policy
The huge rise in demand for Danish and initiatives that focus on economic growth,
Norwegian gas that came after the Russian regardless of how it is reached, obstruct
crisis, resulted in even more use of fossil fuels. green transition. A classic understanding of
Russia is no longer the dominant supplier of economics gives shorter economic cycles and
energy that it once was, however. In the EU, more structural crises in OECD countries.
we are now deeply dependent on imported Idea and knowledge economics dominate the
energy from the mega-corporations of North
America that are extracting shale gas in the
Arctic. In that way, the EU’s prediction of our
dependence on imported energy turned out to
be right. For more than 60% of the energy used
in the EU it is the case that we are dependent
on imports from outside the EU.

85
 successful countries. Denmark, too, has to a
large extent become a knowledge economy,
which means that a lot of the industry has
disappeared or become automated. The Danish
companies with distinct international profiles
are successful and create demand with local
subcontractors.
Big city regions are the driving force for
development and growth. A centralised
location means that damage caused by climate
change might be minimised and this creates
an economic drive and development. The
small towns are dependent on the large ones;
indirectly because it is where the users and
authorities are, but also directly because of the
regional redistribution system.
For example, Ringkøbing-Skjern has formed a
tight connection to Aarhus and has managed
to attract many citizens from the smaller
surrounding towns that are closing down.
Now twice as many cars as people
Investment in the infrastructure has primarily
been aimed at public transport. The European
rail networks has been even better integrated
and developed further, so citizens can travel
between cities more quickly and effectively.
An example of this would be Høje-Taastrup,
where the link up to Copenhagen has been
extended so much that Høje-Taastrup is
considered an integrated part of the capital. This
has been good for Høje-Taastrup, which now
86
has a rising number of inhabitants, and more
businesses choosing to move their headquarters
there in part because of the good connection.
A European travel card has been introduced.
Digitalisation has helped make public transport
an effective, relatively cheap form of transport,
throughout the entire country. Two years ago,
King Frederik opened the Kattegat bridge,
which is a combined train and road bridge. The
connection had been talked about since the
beginning of the century, but because of a clear
decision in the Danish parliament 23 years ago,
it has only now been completed. Global private
transport has risen sharply, mostly due to the
dramatic rise in global population.
Business transport is still deeply dependent
on roads for goods delivery as short-sighted
financial considerations have made it difficult to
convert to alternative forms of transport. The
Danish shipping industry contributes greatly to
the Danish economy.
Kastrup is a strong and important junction
for both private and business transport. Air
transport is an important form of transport
where few large companies dominate traffic.
Protection rather than prevention
Climate and environmental questions have a
tendency to be politicians’ bad conscience.
Since the turn of the century there have been
many good intentions, but on the whole our
behaviour is driven by a short-term economic
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
rationale. Green solutions are seen as being
many times more expensive than the black
ones – at least in the beginning. The long-term
political indications and control systems are
lacking, which means that businesses are not
willing to take a risk on green techniques. Green
transition is therefore downgraded and seen as
an ’alternative’ wave – old, but persistent.

Despite this, there is a growing support for a

lasting development, and the Greens now have
15% of the seats in parliament. But we have not
been able to put focus on sustainability, and
Danish society has given up on large parts of the
climate work – instead focusing on protecting
Denmark from the effects of the climate.

There is a low degree of green transition.

Large international conflicts have replaced
green issues on the agenda. Sporadic national
initiatives, though ones without focus and long-
term strategies, have only managed to reduce
greenhouse gases by 50% from the 1990 level
(primarily driven by market forces).

A lot has happened since the start of this century.

Well-developed technology has been introduced
where it is of good use. There is a constant aim
to minimise costs and get new technological
solutions introduced as soon as they prove to
be profitable. So despite there not having been
much focus on green transition, development
continues regardless. The problem is that the
political leadership is too weak, which means that
the resources that can be used are too little too
late. And they are unevenly distributed!

87
 8.3 TIMELINE FOR GREEN
COMPROMISES
The many events that lead us to a Denmark of
Green compromises in 2050 are all characterised
by a high growth ambition and focus on cross-
national problems and collective values. The
green transition ambition is low amongst
politicians, businesses and Danes in general.

Citizens and
society
Focus on growth and Environmental refugees Scrap bonus fo
conflict solving and rural town
The first environmental
International focus on growth refugees are taken into The politicians
and conflict solutions make Denmark bonus for unsel
the challenges of the climate abandoned hou
a low priority issue. makes it attract
down houses

Transport and
Decision on the Kattegat Public transport in
mobility fixed link Europe

Parliament decides to carry An agreement on a

out the Kattegat fixed link better European tra
with a combined train and networks is accepte
road bridge by the EU

Economy and Green industries Finance law 2025 Google buys Apple
business encounter problems
The debate topic for the Google is the world’s largest
Danish green finance law in 2025 is and most powerful business.
industries begin to whether Denmark should Through their acquisition
encounter problems; make further attempts to of Apple, they become
no support from the become a net exporter of the dominant force in the
state gas information market

Energy, climate A boom for Danish fossil gas
and environment Following the embargo against
Russia’s fossil gas, Danish
extraction in the North Sea
reaches new heights
EU sets new targets New large-sc
EU pressures for a reduction in In order to ha
CO2 emissions. The old 20-20-20 the governme
target was reached in 2019, but scale solution
there is no specific new target new power st
until 2023: to reduce CO2 by 50%
through to 2050, the so-called
50-50 target

88 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

or buildings Large coalition Retirement age raised to 75
ns years
After the general election in
pass a scrap 2043, the Social Democrats To ensure growth, retirement
llable and and Venstre (The Danish age is raised to 75 years
uses, which Liberal Party) form a large
tive to pull coalition

n Driverless vehicles I Continued urbanisation Driverless vehicles II The Kattegat fixed link is
opened
The car revolution – driverless Seven out of ten live in the It is forbidden to drive
a vehicles are introduced in larger Danish cities a car. Only driverless King Frederik X opens the
ain cities cars are allowed Kattegat fixed link on June
ed 10th 2048

BiDaiXio sues Google Green accounts disappear

BiDaiXio sues Google in Despite several years of

the EU’s monopoly court. trying, attempts to create an
They claim that Google alternative target for growth
has broken the rules and development are given up
in the Chinese market.
The companies reach a
settlement.

cale ventures Nordic nuclear power

andle the need for energy Denmark opens discussions

ent looks for new large- on nuclear power with
ns, including fossil gas. A Sweden. Environmental
tation opens in Aarhus. groups are furious

89
 90
CRITERIA GREEN STATE GREEN NETWORKS GREEN GUERILLA GREEN COMPROMISES
International Climate agenda Climate agenda Climate agenda Climate agenda
• High on the agenda • High on the agenda • Occasionally on the • Low on the agenda
agenda
International cooperation International cooperation International cooperation
• Common target • Common target International cooperation • No targets
• Obligatory conditions • Non-obligatory conditions • No common targets • Non-obligatory conditions
• Non-obligatory conditions
Level of international conflict Level of international conflict Level of international conflict
• Low • Low Level of international conflict • High
• High

Denmark/National Climate agenda Climate agenda Climate agenda Climate agenda

• High • High • Medium • Low

AND DEVELOPMENT
The state’s green role The state’s green role The state’s green role The state’s green role
• Top-down/controlling/ • Bottom-up, makes targets • Lacks focus and action • Green not prioritised

SOCIAL POLITICAL AGENDA

decides solutions and gives incentives for
free choice

Big city regions Growth Growth Growth Growth

200,000+ • High • High • High • Medium
Green transition ambition Green transition ambition Green transition ambition Green transition ambition
• High • High • Medium • Low

Medium-sized towns Growth Growth Growth Growth

(Market towns) • Medium-sized towns
50,000+ connect to big cities
Green transition ambition
• Medium-sized towns
more or less lose their
significance
• Medium-sized towns • Medium-sized town
more or less lose their connected to the big cities
significance
Green transition ambition
Matrix for the four scenarios

• High Green transition ambition Green transition ambition • Low

• High • Medium

Small towns <50,000 Growth Growth Growth Growth

DEVELOPMENT IN THE CITIES

• Small towns more or less • Some small towns can cope, • Some small towns can • Small towns more or less
lose their significance others can not cope, others can not lose their significance

DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

 CRITERIA GREEN STATE
Citizens and society Green lifestyle and preferences
• High amongst citizens and
businesses
Construction, homes and
business
• Buildings are green
and tall, concentrated and
homogeneous
GREEN NETWORKS
Green lifestyle and preferences
• High amongst citizens and
businesses
Construction, homes and business
• Buildings are green, spread
out and different
GREEN GUERILLA
Green lifestyle and preferences
• Generally low, but high for
a few groups of citizens and
businesses
Construction, homes and
businesses
• Buildings are spread out and
different, not always green
GREEN COMPROMISES
Green lifestyle and preferences
• Low
Construction, homes and
businesses
• Buildings are spread out
and different, rarely green

Energy and climate Energy supply Energy supply Energy supply Energy supply
• Large-scale • Diversified • Large-scale with increasing • Large-scale
agitation and diversification
Renewable energy Renewable energy Renewable energy
• High level • High level Renewable energy • Low level
• Medium level

Transport and Collective Individual Collective Collective

mobility
Cross-national Local, but integrated Local and not integrated Cross-national

Business and Business structure Business structure Business structure Business structure
economy • Big business • Small is beautiful • Big business & small is • Big business
beautiful

SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT
Business localisation
• In and around the big
cities and in the medium-
sized towns connected to
the big cities
Green economy/GDP − (+)
Business localisation
• In big cities and a few small
towns
Green economy/GDP − (+)
Business localisation
Business localisation • More spread out
• In the big cities and a few
Green economy/GDP − (-)
small towns
Green economy/GDP − (-)

91
Environment Waste/resources Waste/resources Waste/resources Waste/resources
• High degree of recycling • High degree of centralised • High degree of • Low degree of recycling
recycling decentralised recycling
9
9. Strategic dilemmas regarding
green transition
The scenarios described in this project are not
intended to show us the choices and directions
we should take in relation to how green areas
should be organised in the future. But they give
a pretty clear idea of the strategic dilemmas
Denmark and Danish cities are facing. A good
strategy for the future should consider the
uncertainties that exist and make decisions
accordingly.
In the following, we have compiled the strategic
dilemmas for green transition in three areas,
and we put forward a number of suggestions as
to what these dilemmas will mean for Denmark
and its cities:
1. Regardless of everything, we must
dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels
through to 2050. How do we do that
without major economical, social and
political consequences?
2. Technological innovation is essential for
green areas, but what support mechanisms
are possible?
3. Quality of life does not just mean economic
growth and technological innovation, but
what are the consequences of choosing
quality of life without, or with reduced,
economic growth?
Use of fossil fuels must be reduced
No matter how the future looks, Denmark
must considerably reduce its fossil fuel usage
through to 2050. It is a challenge it shares
with the rest of the world, and it involves every
Danish city.
If the re-organisation of, in particular, our
energy systems and transport systems is not
planned and implemented with great care, it
can have an enormous economic, social and
political negative impact. Taxes on fossil fuels
are an important public source of income.
They are used to finance everything from the
welfare state, education, pensions, childcare
and business support to new train connections
and roads and new offshore wind farms, indeed,
everything.
When we save on energy or use a larger
amount of renewable energy with lower taxes
or direct subsidies, it affects the state’s income.
The same goes for the biomass that in some
scenarios is planned for as an essential part
of our future’s energy supply. When the global
request for biomass for both energy and
foodstuff production rises, it can put a growing
pressure on the global biomass production,
which will cause prices to rise. Again, with
large consequences for the state’s income
and expenses.
There is not just one way to plan and implement
a successful re-organisation of our energy
supply and transport systems. In the scenario
descriptions we see that society chooses two
radically different economic approaches that
will have a major significance for economic
incentives in society and consequently for all
other choices that are made.
In two of the scenarios, Green guerilla and
Green compromises, choices are made based
on a classic economic growth model. In the
two other scenarios, Green state and Green
networks, the international community has
implemented a new economic model with a
circular economy and a green GNP. Depending
on which values and behaviour come to
dominate and which people come to lead the
changes, the initiatives and organisational
aspects will look very different. The politicians
who will be making the decisions need to be
aware of this.
93
 Green technological innovation is key
Technological innovation has always played an
enormous role in the development of society
and of business. It will do the same for green
transition in the future. New green technology
can easily be thought of as a game changer
for a green transition. For the same reason,
we have green technological development
and interaction with politics as one of the two
strategic axes of uncertainty for the scenarios.
To be able to develop and implement green
technology on a broad scale would therefore
have great impact on the reduction of CO2
emissions and for the green transition.
When it comes to transport that contributes
a fifth of all CO2 emissions, it will make all the
difference for the reduction of CO2 and the
preservation of mobility in and between cities
that technological innovation develops, and
not least is implemented, so the electricity
developed from wind power and solar panels
can be stored and later used effectively in
batteries and electric cars.
Construction is another important area to look
at, especially as buildings are responsible for
40% of Denmark’s energy usage. In order to
achieve the target of drastic CO2 reduction, the
construction industry and its customers must
develop, test and utilise new technologies and
material solutions.
It can be assumed that the developing,
testing and implementation of green
technologies in the future vil have a large
significance to business, and therefore also
societal, economies. Denmark has several
leading business clusters in the area of
green tech. They are based on a strong triple
helix cooperation between the authorities,
businesses and knowledge institutions. These
collaborations are especially strong in the big
94
cities where the talent, the innovative green
tech businesses and the universities are.
The support of new green technology
development and its implementation cannot
usually take place from the top down via
public prioritising and dominant solutions
from big business. If Denmark is to be ready
for transition, we should certainly work on
bottom-up development from decentralised
market operators and local technology clusters.
It can be just as effective to import green
technologies and solutions from abroad than
to try to be market leaders and develop our
own clusters and products themselves. On the
other hand, it means a great deal for business
development and economic growth with what
is generated from green tech development.
We can also expect that green technological
innovation is unevenly distributed between
cities and sections of the population. The
big wave of technological changes will hit
the big cities first, which will face the biggest
challenges by absorbing urbanisation and the
strongest growth and influx of residents. The
new technology will affect everything from
mobility, construction, energy usage and waste
handling. That is: everything that is connected
to the development of smart cities.
In smaller cities or outside of the cities, the chal-
lenges will be different. Here it will be about only
implementing decentralised technologies after
they become available so that mobility, a modern
lifestyle and a good quality of life can be kept.
It will be of great significance which political
support system is set up in regards to taxes,
economic support, rules and targets for
supporting green technological innovation
in the major cities compared to the smaller
towns. At the same time, it is important which
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
autonomy is allowed so that cities, regions and
even individuals can make their own decisions
about technology. As we show in the scenarios,
society’s movement towards collective or
individual choice could be of enormous
significance.
The strategic dilemma is not only about
whether it is necessary to treat big, medium
and smaller cities and towns differently, but
also whether it should maybe be permitted as
it creates a greater boundary between more
or less well-off sections of society, rich or poor.
New green technologies are, to begin with,
attractive to all, but the less well-off will not
have the money to be able to get the most out
of new green technologies. They do not have
the same access to the internet, nor the latest
mobile phones, maybe cannot be approved for
a carpool or for a smart housing concept in the
newest, hottest part of town with a view over
the harbour. Which choices do we make there?
How much will collective vs individual value
dominate and how much top-down vs. bottom-
up will be realised in the upcoming years?
Quality of life is more than just economic
growth
Economic growth and rising CO2 emissions are
historically two sides of the same coin. Even
though we in Denmark have come a long way
in our green transition, and have managed
to maintain a growth in the GDP as well, one
way for society could also be to accept less
material wealth, lower income and therefore a
lower economic growth as a way towards green
transition. Such a way is instead characterised
by happiness and quality of life being measured
by less time pressure and fewer queues to
work, more quality time, more swapping and
sharing and less individual consumption, more
nature and less system, more autonomy and
less collective control.
This choice is described in the section about
the citizens’ groups in Sønderborg in the Green
guerilla scenario. It is not unrealistic, when
you look at the debates that have taken place
whilst considering the scenarios. It is also a
choice that can win wider backing from the
people, especially those in smaller or medium-
sized towns, through to 2050. The greater
focus on quality of life over economic growth
can be connected to age or social standing.
One hypothesis could be that the less a
section of the population is connected to the
job market, businesses or fast technological
development, the more there would be a wish
to prioritise “quality of life” with more quality
time and less consumption. If this hypothesis
holds up, it would also be necessary to look
at the demographic profiles of the Danish
cities and their development. The differences
between Sønderborg and Copenhagen could
be a reflection on what has the backing of the
people and what is realistic.
What you need to be aware of politically in
relation to the quality of life choice is that there
are two possible consequences that some will
accept and some will not. Firstly, that can mean
that technological innovation, and that includes
green transition, becomes delayed because
there is no need for new technology solutions.
It can also mean that improvements are not
undertaken, which would make it a more
expensive option in the long-term.
It must be emphasised that these are dilemmas
heading towards 2050 that we are talking
about. That is to say that it is something that
we will not see the answers to in the next 3–5
years. It takes time. But how much time do we
have? How long should it be allowed to take? 
95
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99
Appendix I – The experiences of
large cities in Northern Europe
We have as inspiration, especially to the larger
cities in Project DK2050, collected examples
of how green is arranged in five major foreign
cities:
• Amsterdam
• Stockholm
• Berlin
• Oslo
• Rotterdam
The starting point for the collection of examples
has given new inspiration to major Danish cities
in areas that they have focused on, but have yet
to create concrete initiatives.
Amsterdam – Smart city
Amsterdam is aiming to become one of
the world’s most sustainable cities in 2040.
To ensure that the city achieves its goal, it
has formed a unique partnership between
businesses, the authorities, research institutes
and the inhabitants of Amsterdam called
Amsterdam Smart City (ASC). A smart city is
when capital investment and communications
infrastructure ignite a sustainable growth and
raise the quality of life in conjunction with the
effective use of natural resources.
Since the founding of ASC in 2009, ASC has
grown to a wider platform with more than 70
partners that are involved in a series of projects
focusing on the organisation of energy and
open cooperation. This ‘bottom-up’ approach
to sustainability promotes the involvement
of citizens and the business community, and
accelerates the integration of new technologies.
Technologies that would otherwise have
struggled to reach the marketplace. ASC tests
innovative products and services and utilises
a collective flow in creating contacts between
partners, thereby creating new local projects.
The best initiatives can then be implemented
on a large scale. Knowledge and experience is
shared on the ASC platform. Interested parties
are supported and included in development
and the testing of projects. That there is the
opportunity to test technologies/products/
services/approaches in concrete areas is one
of ASCs greatest strengths. Furthermore,
everything is ‘open’ – complete information on
all data, innovation, infrastructure, everything.
The goal for Amsterdam is that, due to these
smart, sustainable projects, CO2-emissions
will be reduced, fulfilling local, national
and European emission reduction targets,
while simultaneously ensuring economic
development. For Amsterdam that is a
reduction in CO2-emissions of 40% in 2025 in
comparison to 1990.
There are five central themes that the projects
in Amsterdam Smart City cover: housing,
employment, mobility, public facilities and
open data. Additionally, a wealth of schemes
are shared on ASC’s platform, including
a sustainable platform that simply gives
neighbours and friends the ability to safely loan
their cars to each other.
The ASC project has lead to a huge array
of innovative projects. The projects vary in
scale and stages, and it is difficult to see what
effect they will have on the city’s long-term
sustainability. Nevertheless, it is clear that
Amsterdam Smart City functions as a platform
and an inspiration to small and medium-sized
businesses in their search for sustainable
alternatives, and that alone can help create a
strong foundation for the big change in the way
we think about urban development.
101
 Stockholm – Sustainable Järva
Sustainable Järva is an ambitious pilot project
that aims to upgrade all Stockholm’s buildings
from the 60s and 70s by 2020 – that accounts
for a third of all apartments in the city.The
buildings are a part of Sweden’s ‘Million hem’
(Million Home) program. The program offered
modern, affordable public apartments at a time
when they were needed, but unfortunately
the  tower blocks are not especially energy
efficient and they now need renovating.
The challenge is not just to improve the
buildings’ environmental performance, but also
to lift the quality of life for the residents. Some
of the targets are to half energy usage, improve
conditions for cyclists and create a carpooling
scheme, together with the installation of
10,000m2 of solar panels.
The pilot project Järva tests different
renovation methods. For example, the use of
prefabricated elements, different ventilation
systems and sewage systems.
The project has strongly focused on engaging
and mobilising residents in the affected areas.
‘The Järva dialogue’, for example, holds open
meetings for the residents where they can
voice their opinion and their thoughts about
how they see the project moving forward. In
the individual housing blocks, the residents
also take part in planning the renovation and
have the opportunity to vote on the plans. The
building contractors must also try to create
job opportunities for local residents and the
ambition is to create more than 100 jobs.
The full effect of ‘sustainable Järva’ is hard
to predict, but until now the project has been
successful in reaching its targets, and many
residents have become involved.
102
There are approximately 200 million similar
buildings across Europe faced with the same
challenges. This project can be seen as a good
example, not just for renovation, but also for the
development of sustainable mini-communities
in entire regions.
Berlin – Sunroof exchange
For more than a decade, Berlin has used
solar energy as one of the most important
instruments in raising the use of renewable
energy. One of the key projects is
‘Solardachbörse’ – a sunroof exchange. The
exchange started in 2005 and was aimed at
private investors to develop solar panels on
public buildings – basically using free rooftops
to create renewable energy. The idea is simple:
The municipality adds buildings to an online
database where they indicate the potential
area available for PV panels. Private investors
can then develop the sites and receive an
economic profit from the electricity they sell.
Many municipal buildings around the city, from
schools to hospitals and government buildings,
now have solar panels.
Furthermore, Berlin gives incentives to
households that add solar panels to their
houses. Berlin has Europe’s largest solar
project on residential properties, where
it produces 25,000kWh annually. In 2010,
Berlin developed the so-called ‘Solar Atlas’
in collaboration with Osnabruck University. It
is an online tool that shows every building in
Berlin and demonstrates the potential for solar
energy based on factors such as roof incline
and geographical information. The tool also
takes into account cost and potential savings
in order to indicate if solar panels would be
economically viable. It has shown that 220,000
roofs are suitable for solar panels, but only
9,000 have them at present. The project also
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
estimated that solar energy can produce
100 MWh, which if all suitable, available roof
tops were utilised. This is the equivalent of
two-thirds of the electricity used in private
households.
The initiative is an attempt at effective
utilisation of the available building mass to
create renewable energy. Berlin’s attitude is
that empty rooftops are a wasted resource.
By attempting to make use of these otherwise
empty areas this becomes a very effective
project that involves the private sector in
producing and fitting the solar panels and,
therefore, only requires limited public funding –
and at the same time creates jobs and income
in the private sector. Berlin’s renewable energy
has nearly doubled between 2005–2010 and
the proportion of renewable energy has risen
from 0.8% to 1.4%.
Several of Berlin’s solar initiatives like the ‘Solar
Atlas’ campaign are very innovative pioneering
projects that have afterwards been copied in
other places. The solar industry employs 5,000
people in the region. The development of solar
energy also plays a role in Berlin’s huge energy
and CO2 reduction strategy, where the city has
also been quick with the initiatives needed to
fulfil CO2 targets. In 2010, Berlin had already
met its first target of a 25% reduction in CO2
emissions as compared to 1990. Berlin is aiming
to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
Oslo – Intelligent street lighting
Oslo has reduced energy usage by 70%
and CO2 emissions by 1,440 tons a year by
introducing an innovative and energy efficient
form of street lighting.
The initiative is a joint venture between the
city of Oslo and Hafslund ASA, the largest
electricity distribution company in Norway.
Hafslund has responsibility for the operation
and maintenance  street lighting points in the
Oslo area.
In the project, old inventory that contains
PCB and mercury is being replaced by high
performance, high pressure sodium lights and
an advanced data communications system
that will reduce the need for maintenance. The
system reduces the level of the lights when the
need for them is low, thereby saving energy
and reducing pollution.
The new lamps have electronic equipment in
each light that measures the usage of different
consumers – including private businesses,
public parks and streets. This means that
energy usage can be measured accurately and
taxed accordingly. When users are not charged
for the estimated amount (older systems are
often based on fixed rate fees), but their actual
usage, it creates an incentive, and thereby a
demand for more effective products.
This advanced communication means that
each light can be turned down individually
when traffic and the climatic conditions change.
This lengthens the expected life expectancy
of the lamps and equipment and gives savings
both economically and in CO2 emissions (if the
energy is produced by fossil fuels). In addition,
data is transferred to a GIS database that holds
information on each individual unit, so the
operator can easily identify the lamp that has,
or will soon, burn out. It is estimated that this
technology will increase efficiency by 30%.
The 10,000 intelligent street lights are run
from a central database that watches and
performs commands. The system uses
telecommunications (GPRS technology)
between the central database and the control
box in each street.
103
 The simultaneous distribution to all of the
city’s 250,000 streetlights can raise energy
savings and reduce emissions considerably. An
upscaling of the project is necessary in order to
deliver the scale economy needed to utilise the
optimal economic savings.
Electricity supply in Norway is 98% hydro-
electric. The lighting in Oslo is covered 100% by
hydro-electricity, but if oil was used to generate
the electricity, the city would discharge 1,440
tons of CO2 a year for the 10,000 lamps.
The potential for energy savings has been
estimated at 4.5 GWh/year. There are plans for
a continual replacement of older, ineffective
street lighting.
Rotterdam – Benthemplein Water Square:
”Benthemplein Water Square” is an innovative
way to prevent flooding in Rotterdam. Put
simply, it is a square of water, that holds water
when at a high capacity, for example, during
intensive precipitation or a torrential rain storm.
It relieves the pressure on the sewer system
and prevents flooding in highly urbanised areas.
The concept behind the water square was
mainly for the areas that needed extra space
to store water, but do not have the traditional
means, like canals.
A water square holds rainwater that falls on the
square itself and, at the same time, as a storage
space for the rain that falls on the roofs of the
surrounding buildings.
A water square also functions as an urban
public space – the lower areas designed to hold
water can be used for sport and recreational
activities when it is dry. The Benthemplein
has space for basketball, skateboarding and
104
performance art in the square, and there is
also room for 1.7 million litres of water. The
water is filtered through the ground under the
pavements or pumped out into canals in other
parts of the city.
The Benthemplein water square can store
water from the square’s walkways together
with rainwater from the roofs of surrounding
buildings. As a result, these buildings’
drainpipes have been disconnected from
Rotterdam’s sewer system. This helps flood
prevention and also avoids the expenses
connected to upgrading sewers in the future.
People around Benthemplein are invited to
share their ideas for the water square. For
example, urban sports enthusiasts were quick
to spot alternative uses for the square, and
began removing obstructions from the square
during the weekends even before the building
was finished. That is why Benthemplein is often
used by many different types of sport.
More space for water is necessary throughout
Rotterdam and as Benthemplein has proved to
be a successful and sustainable solution, it will
almost certainly be copied elsewhere.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
105
Appendix II – City research through
three decades
City research through three decades
By searching through the huge amount of
historic academic literature, we have looked
closely at the development within research
related to the arrangement of green areas in
cities. This historic background is important as
it helps to tell the story of a change in focus
on city development and environment through
the years. By documenting this change in focus
it does not just show which research areas
have prevailed in different decades, but also
the cohesion between research disciplines.
An analysis of research focus over time can
be seen as a reflection of the larger societal
debates that have left their mark on their time.
A part of the analysis based on more than
130,000 scientific articles underlines a big
change in focus and cohesion over time, which
is an essential point relating to how we see the
future; we should be aware that research and
societal debate will markedly change over the
coming decades through to 2050. In working
with developing future scenarios, we need to
be ready to see beyond present day societal
debates and think forward to a situation where
other paradigms will influence our research and
societal debates relating to the re-organisation
in the cities. A challenging thought, but still
very realistic. The method behind this co-word
analysis is presented in appendix I, together
with illustrations for two decades. Only the latest
decade is illustrated on the following Side.
How to read the networks cards
Circles
The circles on the cards are keywords that are
used in the chosen decades. The size of the
circles are dependant on how often the words
are found in the articles.
Lines
The lines between the circles state that the
two words joined by the line appear in the
same article. The thickness of the line and how
close the circles are to each other state how
often the keywords appear in the same article.
A thick line stands for more often, a thin line
for less often.
Colour
The colour of the notes matches to the group
the word mostly belongs to. The different colours
are random.
The networks
The networks is generated in regard to an
analysis of which word that appears most often
in the same description of an article compared
to the frequency that the word is used in the
entire data set. The words that appear most
together are placed closer to each other and
have stronger links to each other. With this
as a starting point, we can identify clusters of
words that often appear together, and thereBY
identify themes that are particularly prominent
in this literature that is published in the
relevant decade.
107
 The focus of research has markedly
changed
Analysis shows that there are themes in each
of the three 10 year periods that are prominent
topics of discussion in scientific literature. In
the 80s, in city related research, particular
focus was placed on the social aspects of living
in the city. There was a defined change through
to the 90s, where the primary research focus
was on the environment and pollution relating
to cities. There is a further shift in the 2000s
where town planning relating to urban areas
becomes a central theme that connects to the
larger part of the other focus areas.
108
Additional integration of fields of
research over time
Over time there is an interesting trend that
different scientific areas attain an even wider
integration. Increased publication across topics
can indicate a rise in multidisciplinary research.
A reason for this could be that researchers
have realised that solutions to the challenges
that cities face cannot be solved with one-
sided contributions, but need wider integration
to be resolved.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
FIGURE 0.1
International research relating to cities and reorganisation
of green areas, 1980–1989

Source: DAMVAD 2014

109
 FIGURE 0.2
International research relating to cities and reorganisation
of green areas, 1990–1999

Source: DAMVAD 2014

110 DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD

FIGURE 0.3
International research relating to cities and reorganisation
of green areas, 2000 – 2009

Source: DAMVAD 2014

111
 The method
In order to reflect city related research to the
reorganisation of green areas, five critical areas of
cities development and green area organisation
were chosen. A simple description of search
methods can be see in the figure below.
FIGURE 0.4
Search blocks
Source: DAMVAD 2014
112
As can be seen in the figure, the city and the
urban space is an overlying search criterion
across the five search blocks, which ensures
that the literature searched for has a focus on
the connection between the city and one of the
five search blocks.
With the help of databases11, more than 130,000
scientific articles have been retrieved globally
from the years 1980 to 2009, and are used in
the analysis.
For a closer look at changes over time, the
results are presented in decades, respectively
1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009.
As the available data is enormous, the results
are presented visually as a networks card,
where the focus of research and the cohesion
between research topics for each decade
appear. This has consequently lead to three
interesting networks cards.
11
The Scopus database is used, which is one of the most
reputable international library databases. Scopus indexes
and covers more than 21,000 different international
peer-reviewed publications along with 200,000 different
contributions to conferences.
DK2050 – Green Growth in Denmark towards 2050 – DAMVAD
113
The partnership behind DK2050

Supported by Architects

Co-curator of ”Sustainable
Danish cities and city regions
towards 2050”

Participating municipalities Knowledge panel

Copenhagen, Aarhus , Aalborg, Odense, Ringkøbing-Skjern Professor Katherine Richardson Copenhagen University
Sønderborg, Fredericia, Middelfart, Kalundborg and Høje-Taastrup Professor Mark Lorenzen Copenhagen Business School
Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen Aalborg University
Professor Gertrud Jørgensen Copenhagen University

Participating regions Curator of the biennale exhibition

The Capital Region of Denmark, the Region of Southern Denmark,
North Denmark Region

Analysis partners Project developer