LEAP Project: France

Elias Al Jazar
Ellinor Hambraeus
Jenny Hansson
Jürgen Köstlbacher

November 1, 2022
Author Contributions
Student 1: Elias Al Jazar

• Base year sector: Transport

• Projections for sector: Transport and renewable shares

• Initial write-up of section: 2.1 (half), 3.1, 3.6, 4.2, 4.4, 5 (1/4)

• Review of section: All sections

Student 2: Ellinor Hambraeus

• Base year sector: Residential

• Projections for sector: Residential and growth rates in renewables

• Initial write-up of section: 1, 2.1 (half), 2.4, 2.5, 4.1, 5 (1/4)

• Review of section: All sections

Student 3: Jenny Hansson

• Base year sector: Commercial

• Projections for sector: All sectors included in demand side

• Initial write-up of section: 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5

• Review of section: All sections

Student 4: Jürgen Köstlbacher

• Base year sector: Industry, Power Generation

• Projections for sector: Power Generation for all scenarios

• LEAP Modelling: Whole model

• Initial write-up of section: 2.2, 2.3, 4.3, 5 (1/2)

• Review of section: All sections

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Contents
Author Contributions 2

1 Executive Summary 4

2 Background and Literature Review 5

2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Energy Balances of the country . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 Current and future operating technologies in the electricity sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.4 Policies and mitigation plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.5 Aim of study / Research Question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

3 Methodology 15
3.1 Short description of LEAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.2 Model set-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.3 Key assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.4 Data collection - electricity generation technologies and fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.5 Demand projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.6 Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.6.1 Business as usual (BAU) or Reference scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.6.2 Frozen future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.6.3 L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

4 Results and discussion 22

4.1 BAU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4.2 Frozen future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.3 L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.4 Comparison between the scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

5 Conclusion and policy implications 43

References 45

Appendix 49

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1 Executive Summary
France is located in western Europe and has the second largest population in Europe. The country have
100% access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking and have had so during the last decades. France’s
energy mix is dominated by nuclear power but other sources used are thermal power and renewable energy
sources such as hydro power and wind power. France has good potential in increasing the share of wind and
solar in their energy mix in the future which falls in line with SDG 7 of sustainable energy. The increased
share of renewables and a decrease of coal, oil and natural gas presented in the country’s policies will result
in lower CO2 emissions and therefore comply with SDG 13 of combating climate change.

The aim of this study is to analyze the national electrical power sector of France and how national policies
affect it. This is of importance for policy makers to make qualified decisions and see the different impacts
of them. Therefore a model was created in the program LEAP. Three different scenarios were developed,
namely Business as usual, Frozen Future and L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision). The base
year in the model is 2017, and projections are made until 2050. The model in LEAP is built on the four main
sectors in the country: residential, transport, industry and commercial. The different energy sources used
to meet the demand of the country are nuclear power, thermal power (coal, natural gas and biomass), hydro
power, wind power and solar PV.

The results show that the electricity demand is increasing for all three scenarios which is mainly due to
the increasing number of households, an increase of electric vehicles as well as new electrical intensive
technologies. The CO2 emissions are desired to decrease to fulfill France’s own policies as well as global
goals. The results present that the frozen future scenario has a steady increase of CO2 emissions due to the
big share of oil and natural gas in the transport sector. However, in the other two scenarios the emissions
decrease as a result of removing coal, reducing the share of oil and natural gas, and increasing renewable
energy sources.

To conclude, the results of the study illustrate France’s energy sector with various paths for development
depending on policies and investments. To achieve a more sustainable future, the decarbonization of the
transport sector is crucial and requires the utilization of biofuels, hydrogen and electricity from renewable
energy sources. For the latter, France has a huge potential in the implementation of offshore wind to increase
the share of renewable sources in the energy mix.

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2 Background and Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

France is located in western Europe with a total area of 551,695 km2 making it the third largest country
in Europe (WorldAtlas n.d.). France had a population of 67,3 million people in 2020 making it the second
most populous country in Europe. The population is increasing from year to year, however the population
growth has decreased the last few years. In 2007, the population increased around 0,62 percent, with the
corresponding value for 2017 being only 0,37 percent (Statista 2021). The change in population from 2000
to 2020 is presented in figure (1).

Figure 1: Population of France from 2000 to 2020 (Statista 2021)

The gross domestic product, GDP, in France was 2,63 trillion US$ in 2020. In figure (2) it can be seen that
the GDP most certainly got affected by the financial crisis in 2008 as well as in 2015 when the GDP fell
even deeper. The carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions for France are presented in figure (3) where both the total
CO2 emissions as well as the CO2 emissions from the electricity and heating sector are depicted. It shows
that the total CO2 emissions have decreased since year 2000. The CO2 emissions from electricity and heat
have been quite constant since 2000, however it has slightly decreased in the past few years.

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 Figure 2: GDP of France from 2000 to 2020 (The World Bank 2020a)

Figure 3: CO2 emissions from 2000-2020 (IEA 2021)

The electricity in France is mainly produced from nuclear power plants, which accounted for over 70%. The
other 30% come from renewable sources such as hydro, wind and solar, and fossil fuels such as natural gas,
coal and oil (IEA 2021). France’s first nuclear power plant was opened in 1962, and by 2021 the country
has 56 operable reactors (Iskhakov 2014). According to The World Bank, 100% of France’s population have
had access to electricity since 1990 (The World Bank 2019).

In 2015, the United Nations adopted the agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes 17 different
goals to combat and solve many global problems until 2030. France was one of many countries that strongly
support the agenda and set goals for achieving the different sustainable development goals. Although France
has already achieved a high standard of living, healthcare and so on, work is still needed to aim for a more
sustainable living. France has launched initiatives for businesses within the energy transition sector, focusing
on new resources and sustainable cities. This includes for example developing energy smart housing and
retrofitting aiming for improved energy efficiency (United Nations 2016). The French government also

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contributes outside of France to aid other countries with sustainable development. For example, the French
bilateral aid enabled children to go to primary and middle school, gave people access to clean water and
supported small businesses to develop (UN, 2021).

Regarding the seventh goal, affordable and clean energy, France and its neighbouring countries have 100%
access to electricity since 20 years (The World Bank 2019). The share of renewable energy is though not
so high, which can be seen in table (1), and lagging behind EU’s target for a 20% share in 2020 (eurostat
2020). That is why France is planning to increase the share of renewable energy in the country with a stable
financial and incentive framework to achieve 32% by 2030. In 2013, the French government invested 440
million euros in renewable technologies (European Environment Agency 2020 and United Nations 2016).
When it comes to SDG 7.1, France is also contributing with investments in many countries in Africa, helping
to achieve universal access to energy. For example, two billion euros have been pledged in 2020 to the Sub-
Saharan region (Gouvernement.fr n.d.).

Regarding goal number 13, climate action, France set up goals for decreasing the emissions of the country
and one of them is reducing the emission by 40% until 2030. Since France’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-
sions only accounts for 3.5% of the global GDP, it accounts as one of the less intensive countries regarding
greenhouse emissions, and therefore switching to low-carbon economy can be achievable (ibid.). As seen in
table (2), France is emitting more greenhouse gases than the EU average. A total of 21 billion euros have
been dedicated to projects regarding climate since 2006 in France (ibid.).

Table 1: Renewable energy consumption in France and neighboring countries, (The World Bank 2019)

Renewable energy consumption (% of

Country total final energy consumption)
1998 2018
France 9.7 15.25
Spain 8.41 17.38
Italy 4.75 17.07
Germany 3.04 15.79
Belgium 1.292 10.66

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 Table 2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by France and neighboring countries, (GreenMatch 2020)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Country
in tonnes (2017 results)
France 86.6
Germany 74.1
Italy 84.1
Spain 121.8
Belgium 79.7
EU average 78.3

The share of nuclear power is high in France and stands for almost 70% of its current energy mix, followed
by hydro and thermal power with smaller shares. Therefore, this can have an effect on the climate, land
and water sectors. Although France’s nuclear waste management is optimized, errors can occur and lead to
devastating disasters. The radioactivity will destroy the surrounding land and contaminate the water supplies
for many years. The water used in nuclear power plants for cooling the cores can also be contaminated.
This water is later reused or released to close water sources like rivers, lakes or seas. Research shows that
radioactive contaminated water has serious effects on marine life, like for example damaged DNA (Jha
2021). In the long term, this can have a huge impact on biodiversity in water and on land, leading to
serious problems. At the same time, the climate impact is minimal since nuclear power plants have low CO2
emissions and do not contribute to other GHG emissions compared to other energy sources.

Achieving SDG 7 will have an effect on other SDG’s in both good and bad ways. Increasing the share of
renewables will affect SDG 13, 14, 15, since less emissions will be emitted and in the same time the risk of
contaminating the water and land will decrease in France. SDG 9 and 11 will also be affected because more
infrastructure will be needed, especially for the utilization of solar power and integrating it in smart cities.
The investments towards SDG 7 will open the opportunity for promoting economic growth and therefore
increasing chances at the job market as well as achieving SDG 8.5 (Rowling 2021). As a counter effect, the
increase in renewable energy will decrease the other energy production forms, and lead to less jobs in those
areas. Improving the efficiency which is target SDG 7.3, will have an effect on SDG 8.4, which aims to
decouple economic growth from environmental degradation by increasing efficiencies.

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2.2 Energy Balances of the country

In the following section, the energy balance of France is presented. The data for this is extracted from the
IEA World Energy Balance 2019 (IEA 2019b), which presents energy data from over 200 countries including
France for the year 2017. The balance is modelled in LEAP and plotted as a Sankey diagram. The electricity
generation of France is heavily relying on nuclear power as a primary source. Over 85% of the electricity
produced in electricity plants originates from nuclear power. From the generated electricity around 27% are
consumed in the industry sector, 36% are consumed in the residential sector and 32% are consumed in the
commercial sector and in public services. Besides electricity, the demand on fossil fuels like natural gas, oil
and coal in industry and transport is modelled and presented. Figure (4) shows the energy balance of France
in a Sankey diagram.

Figure 4: Energy balance of France in million GJ (2017)

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Further relevant for a country is the relation between domestically extracted and imported fuels. Hence,
table (3) shows how much of each fuel type was imported, extracted and exported in Million tonnes of oil
equivalents in 2017 (IEA 2019b).

Table 3: Fuel use and origin in France’s electricity generation (2017)

Fuel type Imported [Mtoe] Extracted [Mtoe] Exported [Mtoe]

Coal 10.09 0 0
Crude oil 58.99 0.91 -0.1
Oil Products 41.71 0 -20.53
Natural Gas 43.16 0.01 -5.42
Nuclear 0 103.8 0
Hydro 0 4.3 0
Geotherm/Solar/etc 0 3.58 0
Biofuels/waste 1.05 17.2 -0.33

Despite all the nuclear power origins from primary production, the needed uranium oxide concentrate is
imported but further converted and enriched in France. The yearly needed amount of uranium oxide con-
centrate is around 12,400 tonnes in 2020 and is mainly imported from Canada and Niger (World Nuclear
Association 2021).

On the other hand, the final electricity demand and its allocation to the different end-use sector including
electricity exports is relevant and shown in figure (5).

Figure 5: Electricity demand by end-use sector including exports

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2.3 Current and future operating technologies in the electricity sector

In this section we introduce the current technologies in the electricity sector of France, as well as introducing
the concept of cross-border trading for France. Figure (6), (7) and (8) display the current mix of power plant
capacity, current mix of fuel used and the current mix of power generation. In 2016 France imported about
4% of its annual consumption (Worldometer n.d.). However, many times there is also a net-export flow
(RTE 2021), and France can claim the title as Europe’s top net power exporter (Nuclear Newswire 2021).
Future cross-border trading is also planned to be expanded. For example, Abadie and Chamorro highlight
the potential in improving the interconnection between Spain and France (Abadie and Chamorro 2021).

Figure 6: Current mix of power plants by type

Figure 7: Current mix of fuel used in the power sector

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Figure 8: Electricity generated by power plant type

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2.4 Policies and mitigation plans

France has developed an energy and climate policy regarding the energy transition. The aim is to tackle
climate change as well as reinforce energy security and energy independence. In 2015 France introduced
”The Energy Transition for Green Growth Act” with goals set towards 2030 and 2050. The following targets
were set (IEA 2019a; Planète Énergies 2019):

• Greenhouse gas emissions: Reduction of 40% between 1990 and 2030, as well as reduction of 75%
between 1990 and 2050.

• Final energy consumption: Reduction of 20% by 2030 as well as 50% by 2050, with respect to 2012.

• Fossil fuels energy consumption: Reduction of 30% by 2030 with respect to 2012.

• Renewable energy: Increase to 23% share of gross final energy consumption by 2020 as well as 32%
by 2030. Increase to 40% share of total electricity generation by 2030.

• Nuclear energy: Reduce the share of nuclear energy in electricity production by 50% by 2035.

• Buildings energy efficiency performance levels: Should comply with ”low consumption buildings”
norms by 2050.

• Waste: Reduction of 50% of the amount of waste disposed in landfills by 2025.

• Addressing energy poverty issues.

The targets are being implemented through over 150 regulations in the country. Four different paths were
brought up during the National Debate on the Energy Transition (DNTE) and are the following (IEA 2016):

• DEC - decarbonisation through electrification.

• DIV - diversification and moderate efforts for energy efficiency.

• EFF - strong efforts for energy efficiency and diversification.

• SOB - strong efforts for energy efficiency and sobriety and nuclear phase-out.

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France participates in the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 and supports the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
In 2016, France submitted the country’s Voluntary National Review to the UN, to assess the progress made
in terms of sustainable development. France has achieved a high standard of living as well as quality of life.
The country has access to healthcare and basic services and goods, such as water, energy, food and education
(SDG 6, 7, 2 and 4). The country also has developed infrastructures, central in SDG 9. However, there are
certain areas where improvements are needed. A reduction of social and gender inequalities would do good
(SDG 5 and 10). Around one out of seven households live under the poverty line with an income of less than
C960 per month, where around 22% of them are living in a situation of food insecurity. Furthermore, men
earn around 23,5% more than women on average, for the same number of working hours. A reduction of
unemployment among young people (SDG 8) is also needed. The unemployment rate was 10,2% at the end
of 2015, as well as the corresponding value for people under 25 years being 25,9% (UN Report by France
2016).

Countries being a part of the Paris Agreement all have nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with the
goal to reduce national emissions as well as adapting to the impacts of climate change. The 28 member
states of the European Union have a joint NDC, which is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with at least
40% by 2030, compared to 1990 (United Nations: Climate Change 2020).

2.5 Aim of study / Research Question

The aim of this study is to analyze the national electrical power sector of France. Hence, the following
research questions should be answered:

• How do France’s policies affect the electricity demand and the power generation?

• How does an increased share of renewable energy sources and decreased share of fossil fuels affect
the CO2 emissions and social costs of the power generation?

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3 Methodology
This section covers the methodology performed to develop the LEAP model for France. It is divided into sec-
tions explaining the LEAP software, the model set-up, key assumptions, data collection, demand projections
and the respective scenarios.

3.1 Short description of LEAP

In this case study, LEAP has been used to model France’s energy sector. LEAP stands for Low Emissions
Analysis Platform and is a software used around the world, in governmental agencies, consulting companies
and other institutions, for energy system analysis. The LEAP software is also used for climate change
mitigation assessments because of its ability for complex GHG analysis.

3.2 Model set-up

The demand generating sectors included in the LEAP model of France are households, industry, transport,
commercial and other. These were deemed to represent the majority of the energy consuming sectors in
France, and are divided as such in World Energy Balances 2019 from IEA (IEA 2019b). Households were
further divided between urban and rural households. Demand for industry was divided into iron and steel,
chemical and petrochemical, food and tobacco, non-metallic minerals, and other. Demand for transport,
commercial and other was not further aggregated, other than for the actual demand product, i.e., electricity,
natural gas, oil, or biofuels.

A combination of a top-down and bottom-up approach was used for building the model. All of the demanded
products of the sectors were split into shares of each sector, a top-down approach. The total amount of energy
consumed by each sector was then added, also a top-down approach. The total consumed energy, or total
demand, was then derived by these shares and consuming sectors, a bottom-up approach. For sectors only
using one type of energy product, e.g., electricity for households, only a bottom-up approach was used.

The power generating technologies were divided into existing nuclear power, hydro, wind, coal plants,
CCGT, solar PV and biomass plants, which are the generating technologies with the biggest share in France
(IEA 2016). France was deemed to be too large of a country to have specific power plants modelled by them-
selves, and they were instead clumped together to create a generalized power generation and not aggregated
into specific power plants.

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3.3 Key assumptions

The key assumptions that are used in the model are the following:

• The base year of the model is 2017

• Modelling period from 2017 to 2050

• Monetary values are expressed in US$

• Discount rate is chosen as 7%

• Urban and rural households are consuming the same amount of energy as well as having the same fuel
share, due to France having 100% access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (The World Bank
2016)

• Population growth is predicted by using backcasting

• Availability for power generation technologies are assumed values

• Capital cost, variable and fixed O&M cost for wind power is based on off-shore wind costs

• Capital cost, variable and fixed O&M cost for solar power is based on utility scale PV costs

• A carbon dioxide cost of 50 USD/TOE in 2017 interpolated to 80 USD/TOE in 2030 is assumed for
all scenarios (Irena 2016)

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3.4 Data collection - electricity generation technologies and fuels

Table 4, found below, shows data collected for each power generating technology used in the model for
France. As mentioned in section 3.2 the power generating technologies are aggregated for a generalized
power type. For each power technology data was the total capacity, fuel type, capacity factor, efficiency,
availability, average lifetime, capital cost, and variable and fixed operation and maintenance cost. All sources
for each value can be found in the appendix.

Table 4: Technologies and their techno-economic characteristics in France.

Techno- Total Fuel Capacity Effi- Availa- Average Capital Variable Fixed
logy capacity factor ciency bility life- cost O&M O&M
time cost cost
GW Type % USD/ % years USD/ kW USD/ USD/kW-
MWh MWh year
Nuclear 63,1 Nuclear 82,5 33 100 60 7388,074 2,352 144,972
Power
Hydro 25,5 Water 40 90 70 100 2528,249 0 63,26
Power
Wind 16,5 Wind 40 41 70-85 20-25 2858,981 0 118,461
Power
Coal 3 Coal 85 49 90 29 4272,349 10,27 96,2
Power Lignite
Natural 15 Natural 85 61 90 22 2669,879 5,73 65,1
Gas Gas
Solar 10,1 Solar 15 33 95 25-30 1391,159 0 22,888
PV
Biomass 2 Organic 60 35 95 20-30 4345,9 4,792 149,834
material

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3.5 Demand projections

Future projections for household demand for all scenarios were calculated by using a projected increase in
population (The World Bank 2020b). The increase in urban population was calculated using backcasting,
thus using historic values to calculate a future growth rate.

Values for future electricity demand for the frozen future scenario was calculated using backcasting. An
average growth rate was calculated from 2010 to 2017 with data given for each respective fuel in the sectors
from every years respective World Energy Balances from IEA (IEA 2019b): electricity, oil, natural gas,
biofuel and coal included in the sectors households, industry, transport, commercial and other. The growth
rate was then assumed to follow the trends set by the last seven years (2010-2017).

However, the average growth rate calculated for electricity in the ”other” category was deemed to give a false
future. This was because the share, and amount, of this category was very small (around 1 Mtoe) and gave a
very high growth rate because of that. This growth rate was then set by combining all consuming products
and calculating a total growth rate which is not related to a specific consuming product. This assumption
was also made for the growth rate of natural gas in the industry sector.

Future demand projections in the BAU scenario and Own Vision scenario were based on policy implemen-
tations. France has set goals for several sectors and values from these goals have been extracted and used as
inputs for demand projections for BAU scenario and Own Vision scenario.

Since all of these values taken from the yearly Energy Balances were in turn numbers derived from actual
production, the method used for calculating growth rate in the report is a top-down approach. They were
then included in the model with a bottom-up approach where growth rates for each individual input fuel were
included. This was the case for all scenarios.

3.6 Scenarios

For this case study, three different scenarios will be developed to understand how the future can and will
be shaped in France depending on different policies and trends. The first scenario is the reference scenario,
which will be the starting point for the LEAP analysis. The reference scenario, also called Business as
usual (BAU), includes France’s current vision for the future. This concludes France’s GHG policies, share
of renewable energy, efficiency measures and so on. The second scenario is the Frozen future and is used

18
to compare the environmental, social and economical impacts of continuing with no changes in the energy
system to the BAU scenario. In this scenario, the share of fuels used in electricity generation will stay the
same, for example the same percentage of nuclear power used to meet the demand in France, but the demand
will increase based on the current projections. The third and last scenario describes our own vision for
France’s future. This scenario is called ”L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus” and describes a future of
”les bleus” with a high share of renewable energy and strong decarbonization of the transport sector. The
numbers below are used in the LEAP software for all scenarios, representing the current situation of Frances
energy sector as well as general applicable projections like population growth.

• Electricity generated by power plant type (base year):

– Nuclear - 70.6%

– Hydro - 11.2%

– Thermal - 7.9% (Coal power: 3.9% + CCGT: 3.2% + Biomass: 0.8%)

– Wind - 6.3%

– Solar PV - 4.0%

• Development and growth

– Population - 0.614% per year

– GDP - 2.62% per year

– Households - 1.5% per year

– Share of urban households - increase from 80.4% to 86% in 2050

– A carbon dioxide cost of 50 USD/TOE in 2017 interpolated to 80 USD/TOE in 2030 is assumed

for all scenarios (Irena 2016)

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3.6.1 Business as usual (BAU) or Reference scenario

This scenario includes France plans and vision for the future, in case of energy production, consumption
and policies. In France, different policies will be applied to different technologies. For example, reduction
of nuclear power or increased share of renewable energy sources. The different policies used for the LEAP
software, and in the report are mentioned below:

• Reduce share of nuclear in energy mix from 70% to 50% by 2035, (Planète Énergies 2019).

• Close last coal plants by 2022, (ibid.).

• Reducing energy consumption by 7% in 2023, 14% in 2028 and 50% in 2050, (ibid.).

• Reducing fossil fuel consumption 30% in 2030, (Ministère de la Transition Ècologique et Solidaire
n.d.).

• Increase in the share of renewable energy production in the energy mix by 32% by 2030, (ibid.).

3.6.2 Frozen future

In this scenario, the same share of fuels and electricity generation types are used for France’s energy mix.
Referring to figure (8), the energy mix consists of mostly nuclear power in France with almost 71% of the
total electricity generated. Nuclear is followed by hydro power plants for 11.2% of the share of electricity
produced. The fuels share in this scenario will also be frozen. As seen in figure (7), the biggest contributor
to the fuel share in electricity generation is nuclear fuel with 85.4%, followed by natural gas with 3.6% of
the fuel share.

In this scenario, the development and growth rate of population, GDP, energy consumption, etc, will follow
the current available projections. Finally, the frozen scenario will not be connected to France’s energy road
map and therefore all the policies seen in the BAU scenario will be neglected.

3.6.3 L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision)

The goal of this scenario is to maximize France’s share of renewable energy sources and decrease greenhouse
gas emissions drastically until 2050. A steady decrease of nuclear power will also be introduced to the energy
mix. This implementation was chosen because of France’s dependency on nuclear power and the interest in

20
seeing a potential future without this dependency. This implementation is also chosen to see if it would be
possible for France to have an energy mix dominated by renewable energy technologies.

This scenario will also introduce new technologies in the energy mix such as hydrogen as an energy storage
and fuel, used in the transport sector as an additional alternative. Regarding the base load in France, hydro
power and different kinds of energy storage will be enlarged to cover up the decrease of nuclear capacity.

This scenario will also examine the opportunities to decarbonize the transport sector as much as possible.
The share of oil products used in transportation will decrease, while the strong increase of electric, hydro-
gen and biofuel based vehicles should balance the high demand in transportation. The arising challenges
with the increase of renewable energy sources and decarbonization of the transport sector will be discussed
thoroughly in the result section. The main targets and applied numbers in LEAP are summarized below.

• Decrease CO2 emissions with 60% by 2050

• Nuclear share decrease in the energy mix from 70% to almost 0% by 2050

• Introduce biomass energy in the electricity mix - increase from 1% to 20% by 2050

• Introduce domestic hydrogen production to cover the increased demand and balance the availability
of renewable electricity

• Decarbonization of the transport sector by:

– Decrease oil based fuels down to 30% in 2050

– Increase the share of electric cars up to 100% by 2050

– Introduce hydrogen as fuel for transport, - increase from 1% to 20% by 2050

– Balance the energy requirement in the transport sector with biofuels

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4 Results and discussion
In this section the results for the different scenarios are shown and compared to each other. The results will
be analysed and compared to supporting studies. First off is the Business as usual scenario which describes
France’s existing plans for the future, followed by the Frozen future scenario and lastly the Own vision
scenario. Following the presented results a thorough comparison between the different scenarios, analyzing
the synergies and trade-offs, is conducted.

4.1 BAU

The final electricity demand of France is presented in figure (9) where it is clear that the demand is projected
to increase until 2050. The main reasons for this is the growing population, followed by an increase in the
number of households as well as the electrification of the transport and industry sector. The main electricity
consumer today and in the future is the residential sector, followed by the industry sector and commercial
sector. The households and the transport sector have the highest growth rate of electricity demand, whereas
the commercial sector’s demand is slowly decreasing. The reason for growing electricity demand in the
residential sector is the growing number of households, which counteract the decreasing electricity intensity
due to efficiency increases. The rapidly growing demand in the transport sector results from the reduction
of fossil fuels and the strong increase in electric vehicles and the continuing electrification of rail transport.
Further the decrease in the commercial sector can be explained by energy efficiency measures.

Figure 9: BAU - Final electricity demand by sector in France

22
The power generation of France is presented in figure (10) where it once again is clear that nuclear power is
the dominant source today. In the upcoming future, according to the current policies in France, the share of
nuclear will decrease as well as renewable sources such as hydro, wind and solar increase a lot until 2050.
The total power generation will increase around 30% from 2017 to 2050 to cover the increased demand.
Moreover, the capacity of different technologies are presented in figure (11) where it is prominent that the
capacity for renewable sources increases the most in the future which is seen in the capacity rise for wind
and solar. In addition, the capacity of nuclear decreases by step-by-step shutdowns as the renewable energy
sources replace the lost capacity of the nuclear power.

Figure 10: BAU - Power generation by energy source in France

23
 Figure 11: BAU - Installed capacity by technology in France

Figure 12: BAU - Actual availability per power plant in France

24
The majority of the CO2 emissions comes from the transport sector, as seen in figure (13). However, by
following France’s plans and visions for the future, a decrease of the CO2 emissions can seen, but not
reaching the goal of being carbon neutral in 2050. The industry and electricity generation sector account for
a much smaller amount of emissions compared to the transport sector. In total, the CO2 emissions decrease
more than one third from 2017 to 2050, when following France’s current goals and policies.

Figure 13: BAU - CO2 emissions in France

25
The social costs of the Business as usual is presented in figure (14) with the different technologies specified.
The social costs represent the capital cost, the variable and fixed operation and maintenance costs as well as
the negative externality cost caused by CO2 emissions. It is seen that the social costs for nuclear plants are
the biggest in the first years, however it decreases in the future as a result of the decrease of nuclear power in
France’s energy mix according to the policies. In the future, the social cost for wind power will increase the
most, making it the most expensive technology in 2050. Furthermore, solar PV also has a high increase of
social costs, whereas the other technologies are almost constant. This is explained by the planned increase
of renewable sources in France, which increases the wind and solar capacity.

Figure 14: BAU - Social cost of different technologies in France

26
4.2 Frozen future

The results from the Frozen scenario are shown below. The Frozen future consists of the same exact share
of fuels and electricity generation types in France. This can therefore interfere with France’s plans for
complying with the Paris agreement, but also affect many different sustainable development goals. Figure
(15) shows the final electricity demand by sectors in France, and as seen, households have the biggest growth
compared to other sectors.

Figure 15: Frozen future - Final electricity demand by sector in France

Figures (16), (17) and (18) shows installed capacity, power generation and availability of different technolo-
gies in France, regarding the frozen future. As mentioned, nuclear power is the dominating energy source in
France and will continue to be in the frozen future. Looking into the economical aspect of the frozen future,
regarding power generation sources, France has huge potential for nuclear waste. Many studies confirm the
possibility of reusing nuclear waste and therefore France’s chances to decrease imports of nuclear fuel, (Ha,
Navarro Menchavez, and Koo 2010).

27
 Figure 16: Frozen future - Installed capacity by technology in France

Figure 17: Frozen future - Power generation by energy source in France

28
 Figure 18: Frozen future - Actual availability per power plant in France

When it comes to CO2 emissions, the largest growth and share belongs to the transport sector. As seen
in figure (19), the industry and electricity generation have very little impact and increase compared to the
transport sector. One reason for the low increase of emissions in electricity generation is the use of nuclear
power and its very low CO2 emissions.

Finally figure (20) shows the social costs for the different technologies. The social costs slightly increase
over the years and include the capital costs, fixed and variable O&M costs and fuel costs.

29
 Figure 19: Frozen future - CO2 emissions in France

Figure 20: Frozen future - Social cost of different technologies in France

30
4.3 L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision)

The scenario ”L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus” shows the effects of a strong increase of renewable
energy sources in France’s electricity mix and the decarbonation of the transport sector. Figure (21) presents
the final electricity demand by end-use sector and its development until 2050. The development on the
demand side is very similar to the BAU scenario, since no further measures are applied besides the transport
sector. Therefore, the residential electricity demand increases with the households, the transport electricity
demand with the strong deployment of electric vehicles and the industrial demand with new electricity
intensive technologies. As in the BAU scenario, only the commercial electricity demand is projected to
decrease due to efficiency improvements in lighting and heating.

Figure 21: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Final electricity demand by sector in France

31
Additionally to this demand, the deployment of green hydrogen production by electrolysis shows a growing
need for electricity. This is visible in figure (22) and needs to be accumulated with the final electricity
demand. Therefore, the total electricity demand will reach over 700 TWh in 2050.

Figure 22: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Electricity demand of the hydrogen production in France

Stronger differences to the BAU scenario can be seen on the power generation side. Figure (23) represents
the generated power per year and energy source. As targeted in the scenario, the total phase out of fossil
fuels and drastic decrease of nuclear power in the power generation is clearly visible. To cover the growing
demand a strong increase in renewable sources is needed, but also electricity imports will be necessary
(especially after the shutdown of big nuclear power plants). The imports of electricity are shown in figure
(24). As base load replacement for the nuclear power plants, the capacity and electricity output of hydro
power plants and biomass power plants will strongly increase. To deal with the varying availability of wind
and solar power, the flexible hydrogen production should bring more energy security.

32
Figure 23: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Power Generation by Energy Source in France

Figure 24: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Electricity Imports of France

33
Further important is the capacity development, which is shown in figure (25). As targeted, the renewable
power sources will be expanded largely, especially from 2028. On the other hand the capacity of nuclear
power will steadily decrease by shutting down power plants every five years. Until 2022 the last coal power
plants are phased out as in the BAU scenario. Additionally, the CCGT power plants, which run on natural
gas, will be closed down until 2050 and partly replaced by biomass power plants.

Figure 25: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Installed capacity in France

To rate the robustness and functionality of the proposed power generation sector, the actual availability is
a good indicator. As figure (26) shows, some power plants need to run on high availability to cover the
demand. Due to the fast shutdown of nuclear capacity, remaining nuclear power plants need to run on a
100% availability from 2030 on to fulfill the share of produced electricity. Besides that the availability of
the hydro power plants is increasing steadily, because the power generated grows more than the installed
capacity. Due to the hitting of the availability limits of some power plant types, an increase in electricity
imports can be explained.

34
 Figure 26: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Actual Availability per power plant type in France

The efforts made in this scenario are leading to a decrease of around 60% of the total CO2 emissions, see
figure (27). The main contributor to this decrease is the decarbonization of the transport sector, where the
emissions allocated to oil products are cut by two thirds. The phase-out of fossil fuels in the electricity
generation will also contribute and decline to nearly zero CO2 emission in this sector by 2050. Though it
needs to be considered that the growing demand cannot be met with the domestically available electricity
and imports of electricity can add additional CO2 emissions. Therefore, the import of green electricity from
the neighbouring countries needs to be ensured for this scenario with contracts.

Finally, figure (28) shows the social costs of each technology and represents the high costs of the expansion
plans in wind power plant capacity. Despite the decrease in capital and O&M costs of renewable energy
technologies, wind power plants, especially offshore, still have high costs, representing the biggest share
in the figure. The development of a domestic hydrogen production (electrolysis) will also be visible in the
social costs and grow according to the production capacity.

35
Figure 27: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - CO2 emissions in France

Figure 28: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Social costs in France

36
Due to the major changes in the energy system in L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus the feasibility of this
scenario needs to be discussed. Both the phase out of nuclear power and the decarbonization of the transport
sector brings major challenges and problems. Concerning the decrease of oil products in the transport sector,
a fast transformation including the deployment of new transport modes and fuels is challenging. Additionally
to a 100% increase in electric vehicles, an increase in the shares of biofuels and hydrogen up to 38% and
respectively 19% will demand an intensive up-scaling of domestic fuel production and increase in electricity
demand. The development of the fuel shares in the transport sector are shown in figure (29).

Our pictures/Transportsector by Fuel.jpg

Figure 29: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Fuel shares in France’s Transport Sector

37
Even more challenging is the phase-out of nuclear power and fossil-fuel power plants in the electricity
generation. Due to the strong dependence of France on nuclear, the phase-out brings a lot of costs, including
decommissioning costs as well as investments in new renewable power plants and the grid. Since nuclear is
the major contributor to cover France’s base load, a reallocation on the remaining and replacing base load
power plants (hydro power and biomass power plants). As already mentioned, puts the availability of the base
load power plants to its limits and creates a necessity for imports of electricity. This scenario will therefore
negatively affect important criteria of an energy system like energy security and energy independence.

38
4.4 Comparison between the scenarios

In this section, a comparison between the three different scenarios throughout the years is shown. The figures
presented show the installed capacity, CO2 emissions and lastly, the social cost where France’s imports of
resources and externality costs for CO2 emissions are included.

In figure (30) the installed capacity in total is shown. As seen, the installed capacity for the Frozen future
remains the same throughout the years. This can be explained by the fact that France’s already installed
capacity can cover the growing demand of the sectors and therefore no need for new power plants. The
easiest way to cover the demand in the frozen future is with thermal and nuclear power plants. The installed
capacity for the Business as usual and L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision) scenarios are
growing throughout the years because of the increase of renewable energy sources like wind and hydro
power. The reason for the higher increase in BAU scenario is because of different nuclear decommissioning
plans compared to L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision), where the nuclear plants are shut down
completely by 2050.

The increase in installed capacity seen in the scenarios have huge effects regarding the sustainable develop-
ment goals and also the land, water and food nexus in France. The increase of wind and solar farms will
require a vast amount of land, and the hydro power increase will require new construction and have an effect
on water supply, where the potential to disturb water flows might arise. Since France plans for increasing
renewable energy sources mostly focuses on wind, the different types as offshore and onshore will have
different effects. The land usage for onshore wind turbines is very minimal and can be combined with agri-
cultural needs or solar installations and have some synergies between the energy-food nexus. Offshore wind
facilities are larger and need more space in water. This may therefore affect sea activities such as fishing
and have negative effects on food supply. On the other hand, offshore wind facilities have a positive impact
when it comes to marine wildlife, where studies show increasing fish populations because of the wind facility
acting as an artificial reef (ucsusa.org 2013).

When it comes to hydro power development, one important aspect to consider is the land, food and water
nexus. Building new hydro power plants will use a lot of land and affect marine life in the surroundings.
Hydro power reservoirs store the water that can instead be used in other sectors like agriculture. Although
the water is available downstream, the timing between the energy demand and agriculture usage of water
may be hard to achieve (X. Zhang et al. 2018).

39
One important goal to achieve for France in the sustainable development goals is SDG 7, affordable and
clean energy for the country. With the increased capacity in L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own
vision) scenario, the goal will be achieved faster. With the introduction of hydrogen and solar technologies,
SDG 11 will also eventually be achieved. Increased renewables will open up for new jobs and improve the
current situation of SDG 8 and 9.

Figure 30: Comparison of the installed capacity between the three different scenarios presented

Figure (31) shows the different amounts of CO2 emitted in total, by the different scenarios. As seen, the
Frozen future will increase the emissions because of the same usage of fossil fuels and growing rates in
the transport and industry sector. The BAU and Own vision scenarios show decreasing emissions with the
Own vision scenario being the lowest. This is mainly because of the decarbonization of the transport sector.
According to studies, nuclear power has a very low carbon footprint, compared to other energy sources and
even some renewable sources (world-nuclear.org 2021). Introducing other renewable sources will therefore
increase the emissions in some way. The decrease of CO2 will have a huge impact on SDG 13, especially
13.2. Introducing hydrogen and electrifying the transport sector will help achieve SDG target 11.2 where
many improvements for the infrastructure need to occur.

40
 Figure 31: Comparison of the CO2 emissions between the three different scenarios presented

Lastly, figure (32) shows the total social cost in the different scenarios. This includes the capital cost of the
technologies, variable and fixed operational cost and the import costs of France as well as externalities for
CO2 emissions. The figure shows an increase in the social costs for all the scenarios. As seen, the Frozen
future has a higher increase until 2030 and a lower increase until 2050. Since the share of fuels are the same
and the capacity is enough in the frozen future, the explanation for the increase throughout the years is the
externality costs for the CO2 emissions since they are increasing. The Business as usual scenario shows a
general increase in social cost throughout the years but a small decrease in the first years. The decrease can
be explained by the fact that the efficiencies in power plants increases resulting in less operational cost as
well as no need for new power plants until 2022. The sudden increase seen is due to the shutting down of
coal plants as in France’s goals for the future. This leads to a certain demand that will be met with new
investments in renewable sources and therefore increasing the social cost.

41
The social cost for the L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision) scenario also shows a general
increase but with an oscillating pattern. This is due to shutting down nuclear power plants and a resulting
decrease in fuel costs, and the followed building of new plants to cover up the demand. The general increase
is explained due to the high social cost of operating wind power plants, which will have the largest shares
in the energy mix in the two scenarios. The figure shows lower social cost for the L’avenir renouvelable
pour les bleus (Own vision) scenario after 2033 compared to Business as usual. This may be explained by
the improvements in technologies making renewables like wind and hydro cheaper, but also by the larger
decrease of the CO2 emissions which will lower the externality costs. The fuel reduction in the transport
sector will also have a large influence on the decrease in social costs. After 2045, a decrease is shown in
both cases due to decrease in the operational cost for the different renewable technologies and also because
less imports are needed since the demand already can be supplied by the newly built power plants.

Figure 32: Comparison of the total social cost between the three different scenarios presented

42
5 Conclusion and policy implications
France’s goals set by the government enable sustainable development in many sectors. Although, to achieve
a more sustainable future, France needs to focus more on the transport sector and try to decarbonize it as
much as possible as shown in L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision) scenario.

The results obtained in the Business as usual are considered quite realistic since it is based on the current
policies of France and has a smooth transition in comparison to the Own vision. Though it will need strong
efforts of all stakeholders, especially by the policymakers. Particularly the decrease of nuclear power in
the energy mix seems unrealistic based on current post-pandemic developments and new political efforts of
France to include nuclear energy in the list of EU’s favoured green and sustainable investments (Hoare 2021).
On the other hand, the expansion plans for solar PV and especially wind power plants seem achievable.
France’s geographic location at the Atlantic and North Sea offers large potential for large offshore wind
parks, but will need billion dollar investments. Additionally, commercial solar PV can be pushed further by
developing the right legal framework for smart cities and for smart grids.

For the L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision) scenario it could be debated whether it is realistic
and beneficial to cut off the whole share of nuclear and instead be more dependent on imports from other
countries. Also using hydro power as a base load energy source for this scenario needs further investigation
regarding France’s potential and resources. Further the strong decarbonization of the transport sector leads
to a massive demand increase in clean fuels like electricity, biofuels and hydrogen. A domestic production of
these alternative fuels is an important requirement for a sustainable transformation of the transport sector, but
will lead to an even higher electricity demand. Even if these products will be produced in electricity surplus
phases, it will burden the electricity system of the Own vision additionally. The Frozen future scenario is not
considered as an alternative for a sustainable future due to the high share of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions.
Despite the increasing costs of CO2 emissions, this scenario still has the lowest social costs. This results
from neglecting other cost factors e.g. fees for noncompliance to climate goals.

43
Future work could be to further look into the impacts from the different scenarios from an environmental and
socio-economic perspective. Especially in the L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own vision) scenario
where renewables such as hydro, biomass, wind and solar are expected to cover the loss of nuclear power, it
would be of interest to analyze how the plants impact the nearby environment such as biodiversity and local
population. Further a more detailed modelling of the demand side and inclusion of demand side management
and efficiency measures can give interesting insights.

In conclusion, France has huge potential for implementing renewable energy sources like offshore wind
because of its geographical position. Also, new reliable technologies as base load have to be developed and
considered if phasing out nuclear should be an option in the future. With the increasing social pressure on
GHG emission reduction and sustainability in France and other countries, the current policies and presented
scenarios will need to be reconsidered and improved to reach the SDG targets and comply with the Paris
Agreement.

44
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Appendix

Figures

Figures presented for each modelled scenario

Business as Usual

Figure 33: BAU - Final electricity demand by sector in France

Figure 34: BAU - Installed capacity by technology in France

49
Figure 35: BAU - Power generation by energy source in France

Figure 36: BAU - Actual availability per power plant in France

50
 Figure 37: BAU - CO2 emissions in France

Figure 38: BAU - Social cost of different technologies in France

51
Frozen Future

Figure 39: Frozen future - Final electricity demand by sector in France

Figure 40: Frozen future - Installed capacity by technology in France

52
Figure 41: Frozen future - Power generation by energy source in France

Figure 42: Frozen future - Actual availability per power plant in France

53
 Figure 43: Frozen future - CO2 emissions in France

Figure 44: Frozen future - Social cost of different technologies in France

54
L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus (Own Vision)

Figure 45: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Final electricity demand by sector in France

Figure 46: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Installed capacity in France

55
 Figure 47: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Power Generation by Energy Source in France

Figure 48: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Actual Availability per power plant type in France

56
Figure 49: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - CO2 emissions in France

Figure 50: L’avenir renouvelable pour les bleus - Social costs in France

57
Sources

Sources used for values in table 4 presented in section 3.4

Table 5: Table with data for nuclear power, hydro power, and wind power

Data Source
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Nuclear Efficiency International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
power and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Availability Assumption
Average Lifetime International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Hydro Efficiency U.S. Department of the Interior 2005
power Availability Assumption
Average Lifetime U.S. Department of Energy 2003
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021b
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021b
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021b
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Wind Efficiency Center for Sustainable Systems n.d.
power Availability Assumption
Average Lifetime Jacobson 2016
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021c
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National
58 Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021c
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021c
 Table 6: Table with data for coal power, natural gas power, and solar power

Data Source
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Coal Efficiency T. Zhang 2020
power Availability Assumption
Average Lifetime Narayan 2019
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
CCGT
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
(Nat-
Efficiency International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
u-
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
ral
Availability Assumption
gas)
Average Lifetime U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2017
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021a
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Solar Efficiency International Energy Agency (IEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA),
power and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development 2015
Availability Research Gate 2016
Average Lifetime Berg 2018
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021e
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021e
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021e

59
 Table 7: Table with data for biomass power

Data Source
Total capacity IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency 2020
Capacity factor Irena 2012
Efficiency Irena 2012
Biomass Availability Assumption
power Average Lifetime NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory n.d.
Capital cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d
Variable O&M Cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d
Fixed O&M cost NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2021d

60