Soer2020 - 04 12 2019

The European environment —
state and outlook 2020

Knowledge for transition to a sustainable Europe
Cover design: EEA
Cover photo: © Simon Hadleigh-Sparks, My City/EEA
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© European Environment Agency, 2019
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Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019
ISBN 978-92-9480-090-9
doi: 10.2800/96749
TH-04-19-541-EN-N
REG.NO. DK- 000244
European Environment Agency

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Contents
Part 1 Part 2
Setting the scene Environment and
climate trends
I. Foreword......................................7 Chapter 00.....................................20 Introduction..................................71

Reporting on
II. Executive summary...................9 the environment in Europe Chapter 03.....................................72
Biodiversity and nature
Chapter 01.....................................32
Assessing the global‑European Chapter 04.....................................92
context and trends Freshwater
Chapter 02.....................................54 Chapter 05...................................112

Europe’s policies and Land and soil
sustainability goals
Chapter 06...................................132
Marine environment
Chapter 07...................................152
Climate change
Chapter 08...................................188
Air pollution
© Simone Manfredi
Part 3 Part 4
Sustainability Conclusions
prospects
Chapter 09....................................210 Chapter 15....................................334 Chapter 18.....................................412

Waste and resources Sustainability through Where do we go from here?
in a circular economy a system lens
Acknowledgements.....................424
Chapter 10....................................230 Chapter 16....................................346
Chemical pollution Understanding References....................................426
sustainability challenges
Chapter 11....................................252
Environmental noise Chapter 17....................................376
Responding to
Chapter 12....................................268 sustainability challenges
Industrial pollution
Chapter 13....................................288
Environmental pressures
and sectors
Chapter 14....................................316
Summary assessment
I.
Foreword
T
he European environment — state and challenges than the ones we have provided over
outlook 2020 (SOER 2020) comes at a the past 40 years. This report aims to inform
crucial time. We face urgent sustainability discussions on Europe’s 2030 policies, including
challenges that require urgent systemic trajectories to 2050 and beyond.
solutions. This is the unambiguous message to
policymakers in Europe and globally. The overarching These future policies must build on existing
challenge of this century is how we achieve responses to our environmental and climate
development across the world that balances societal, challenges — the acquis — and they must also
economic and environmental considerations. respond to the most‑up‑to-date knowledge, which
calls for fundamentally different approaches —
This is the 6th SOER published by the European both in terms of what we need to do, as well as how
Environment Agency (EEA), and this 2020 edition we need to do it.
identifies serious gaps between the state of the
environment and existing EU near- and long-term The message of urgency cannot be overstated.
policy targets. Citizens’ expectations for living in In the last 18 months alone, major global
a healthy environment must be met, and this will scientific reports from the IPCC, IPBES, IRP and
require renewed focus on implementation as a UN Environment (1) have been published, all
cornerstone of EU and national policies. carrying similar messages: current trajectories are
fundamentally unsustainable; these trajectories are
That being said, we do not only have to do more; interconnected and linked to our main systems of
we also have to do things differently. Over the production and consumption; and time is running
next decade, we are going to need very different out to come up with credible responses to bend
answers to the world’s environmental and climate the trend.
(1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on 1.5 °C Global Warming and Climate Change and Land;
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment Report
on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services; International Resource Panel (IRP) Global Resources Outlook report;
UN Environment Global Environment Outlook 6.
SOER 2020/Foreword 7
The call for fundamental sustainability transitions Neither should we ignore the young people of
in the core systems that shape the European Europe. They are increasingly making their voices
economy and modern social life — especially the heard to demand a more ambitious response to
energy, mobility, housing and food systems — is climate change and environmental degradation.
not new. Indeed we made such a call in the 2010 Unless we manage to change current trends within
and 2015 editions of SOER, and in recent years the the next decade, then their sense of fear for the
EU has embedded this thinking in important policy future will prove to be well founded.
initiatives such as the circular and bio-economy
packages, the climate and energy policies for 2030 SOER 2020 does not provide all the answers to
and 2050, and its future research and innovation these complex challenges. Nonetheless, it is the
programme. Furthermore, the EU’s sustainable EEA’s most comprehensive integrated assessment to
finance initiative is the first of its kind to ask serious date, and the first to address rigorously our systemic
questions about the role of the financial system in challenges in the context of the sustainability
driving the necessary change. transitions that we, as a society, must make. It builds
on 25 years of experience with data, analysis and
However, it is one thing to change thinking EU policy, drawing on the knowledge of our unique
and another to bring about actual change. The network of European member countries (Eionet).
focus now must be on scaling up, speeding up,
streamlining and implementing the many solutions We cannot predict the future, but we can create
and innovations — both technological and social it. We are convinced that this report constitutes a
— which already exist, while stimulating additional solid, timely source of knowledge that can guide
research and development, catalysing behavioural discussions on future EU environment and climate
shifts and, vitally, listening to and engaging with policies, and help shape European responses to
citizens. the United Nations Agenda 2030 and Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). Europe must lead the
We cannot underestimate the social dimension. global transition to a healthy environment in a just
There are loud and understandable calls for a and sustainable world. The idea of a European
just transition, in which the potential losers from Green Deal — outlined as the number one priority
the low-carbon economy are given due care and in the Political Guidelines for the next European
attention. The unequal distribution of costs and Commission 2019-2024 — has the potential
benefits arising from systemic changes is now to provide an excellent framework for action,
recognised by policymakers, but requires solid allowing for the kind of systems-based thinking and
understanding, citizen engagement and effective innovation needed to achieve this transition and
responses. create a future we can all be proud of.
Hans Bruyninckx
Executive Director, European Environment Agency
8 SOER 2020/Foreword
II.
Executive summary
SOER 2020 in a nutshell Europe stands at a critical juncture in 2020.
I
Its leaders have opportunities to shape future
n 2020, Europe faces environmental challenges developments that will not be available to their
of unprecedented scale and urgency. Although successors. The coming decade will therefore be
EU environment and climate policies have of decisive importance in determining Europe’s
delivered substantial benefits over recent opportunities in the 21st century.
decades, Europe faces persistent problems in
areas such as biodiversity loss, resource use, These, in short, are the overarching conclusions of
climate change impacts and environmental risks The European environment — state and outlook 2020
to health and well-being. Global megatrends such (SOER 2020). The report provides a comprehensive
as demographic change are intensifying many assessment of Europe’s environment to support
environmental challenges, while rapid technological governance and inform the public. Like all EEA
change brings new risks and uncertainties. reports, it is founded on the work of the European
Environment Information and Observation Network
Recognising these challenges, the EU has committed (Eionet) — a partnership between the EEA and its
to a range of long-term sustainability goals with 33 member countries and six cooperating countries.
the overall aim of ‘living well, within the limits
of our planet’. Achieving these goals will not be Making sense of the European environment’s
possible without a rapid and fundamental shift in state, trends and prospects requires an integrated
the character and ambition of Europe’s responses. approach that acknowledges the complex drivers
Europe needs to find ways to transform the key and implications of environmental change.
societal systems that drive environment and climate SOER 2020 provides just that, presenting the global
pressures and health impacts — rethinking not just context that shapes Europe’s development (Part 1),
technologies and production processes but also European environmental and sectoral trends and
consumption patterns and ways of living. This will outlooks (Part 2) and the factors constraining or
require immediate and concerted action, engaging enabling transformative change (Part 3). It concludes
diverse policy areas and actors across society in in Part 4 with reflections on how Europe can shift its
enabling systemic change. trajectory and achieve a sustainable future.
to grow by almost one third to 10 billion by 2050.
Europe continues to consume more
Globally, resource use could double by 2060, with
resources and contribute more water demand increasing 55 % by 2050 and energy
to environmental degradation demand growing 30 % by 2040.
than other world regions.
The great acceleration has undoubtedly delivered
major benefits, alleviating suffering and enhancing
prosperity in many parts of the world. For example,
SOER 2020 identifies many challenges and barriers. the share of the global population living in extreme
But it also sees reasons for hope. European citizens poverty has decreased sharply — from 42 % in 1981
are increasingly voicing their frustration with the to less than 10 % in 2015. Yet the same developments
shortfalls in environment and climate governance. have also caused widespread damage to ecosystems.
Knowledge about systemic challenges and responses Globally, about 75 % of the terrestrial environment
is growing and is increasingly reflected in EU policy and 40 % of the marine environment are now severely
frameworks. In parallel, innovations have emerged altered. The Earth is experiencing exceptionally rapid
rapidly in recent years, including new technologies, loss of biodiversity, and more species are threatened
business models and community initiatives. Some with extinction now than at any point in human
cities and regions are leading the way in terms of history. Indeed, there is evidence that a sixth mass
ambition and creativity, experimenting with different extinction of biodiversity is under way.
ways of living and working and sharing ideas
across networks. Many of the changes in the global climate
system observed since the 1950s are similarly
All of these developments are important because unprecedented over decades to millennia. They
they create space for governments to bring a new largely result from greenhouse gas emissions
scale of ambition to policies, investments and from human activities, such as burning fossil fuels,
actions. They also help raise awareness, encouraging agriculture and deforestation.
citizens to rethink behaviours and lifestyles. Europe
must seize these opportunities, using every means Both directly and indirectly, these pressures are
available to deliver transformative change in the inflicting tremendous harm on human health
coming decade. and well-being. The global burden of disease
and premature death related to environmental
pollution is already three times greater than that
Europe’s environment in a changing global from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. But
context the continuation of the great acceleration could
create even more far-reaching threats if pressures
The environmental and sustainability challenges trigger the collapse of ecosystems such as the Arctic,
that Europe faces today are rooted in global coral reefs and the Amazon forest. Sudden and
developments stretching back over decades. During irreversible shifts of this sort could severely disrupt
this period, the ‘Great Acceleration’ of social and nature’s ability to deliver essential services such as
economic activity has transformed humanity’s supplying food and resources, maintaining clean
relationship with the environment. Since 1950, water and fertile soils, and providing a buffer against
the global population has tripled to 7.5 billion; the natural disasters.
number of people living in cities has quadrupled
to more than 4 billion; economic output has As a pioneer of industrialisation, Europe has played
expanded 12-fold, matched by a similar increase a pivotal role in shaping these global changes.
in the use of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium Today, it continues to consume more resources
fertilisers; and primary energy use has increased and contribute more to environmental degradation
five-fold. Looking ahead, these global developments than many other world regions. To meet these
look set to continue increasing pressures on the high consumption levels, Europe depends on
environment. The world’s population is projected resources extracted or used in other parts of the
world, such as water, land, biomass and other deliver prosperity and fairness, while also protecting
materials. As a result, many of the environmental ecosystems. The United Nations (UN) Sustainable
impacts associated with European production and Development Goals complement these frameworks,
consumption occur outside Europe. providing a logic for transformative change that
acknowledges the interdependence of social,
Collectively, these realities add up to a profound economic and environmental targets.
challenge for Europe and other world regions.
The current trajectories of social and economic Viewed against Europe’s long-term vision and
development are destroying the ecosystems complementary policy targets, it is clear that Europe
that ultimately sustain humanity. Shifting is not making enough progress in addressing
onto sustainable pathways will require rapid environmental challenges. The messages from
and large‑scale reductions in environmental the SOER 2020 assessment of recent trends and
pressures, going far beyond the current reductions. outlooks is clear: policies have been more effective in
reducing environmental pressures than in protecting
biodiversity and ecosystems, and human health
Europe’s environment in 2020 and well-being. Despite the successes of European
environmental governance, persistent problems
remain and the outlook for Europe’s environment in
As the character and scale of global the coming decades is discouraging (Table ES.1).
environmental and climate challenges has
become clearer, policy frameworks have evolved. It is clear that natural capital is not yet being
Europe’s environmental policy framework — the protected, conserved and enhanced in accordance
environmental acquis — is increasingly shaped with the ambitions of the 7th EAP. Small proportions
by ambitious long-term visions and targets. The of protected species (23 %) and habitats (16 %)
overarching vision for Europe’s environment and assessed are in favourable conservation status and
society is set out in the Seventh Environment Europe is not on track to meet its overall target of
Action Programme (7th EAP), which envisages halting biodiversity loss by 2020. Europe has achieved
that by 2050: its targets for designating terrestrial and marine
protected areas and some species have recovered,
We live well, within the planet’s ecological limits. but most other targets are likely to be missed.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from
an innovative, circular economy where nothing is Policy measures targeted at natural capital have
wasted and where natural resources are managed delivered benefits in some areas, but many problems
sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and persist and some are getting worse. For example,
restored in ways that enhance our society′s resilience. reduced pollution has improved water quality, but
Our low‑carbon growth has long been decoupled the EU is far from achieving good ecological status
from resource use, setting the pace for a safe and for all water bodies by 2020. Land management has
sustainable global society. improved, but landscape fragmentation continues
to increase, damaging habitats and biodiversity.
EU environmental policies are guided by three Air pollution continues to impact biodiversity and
thematic policy priorities in the 7th EAP: (1) to ecosystems, and 62 % of Europe’s ecosystem area
protect, conserve and enhance the EU’s natural is exposed to excessive nitrogen levels, causing
capital; (2) to turn the EU into a resource-efficient,
green and competitive low-carbon economy;
and (3) to safeguard the EU’s citizens from
environment‑related pressures and risks to their SOER 2020 shows that despite
health and well-being. In recent years, the EU has
the success of EU environmental
also adopted a series of strategic framework policies
that focus on transforming the EU economy and policies, the outlook for Europe’s
particular systems (e.g. energy, mobility) in ways that environment is discouraging.
TABLE ES.1 Summary of past trends, outlooks and prospects of meeting policy objectives/targets
Theme Past trends and outlook Prospects of meeting policy

objectives/targets
Past trends Outlook
(10-15 years) to 2030 2020 2030 2050
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Terrestrial protected areas 
Marine protected areas 
EU protected species and habitats 
Common species (birds and butterflies) 
Ecosystem condition and services 
Water ecosystems and wetlands 
Hydromorphological pressures 
State of marine ecosystems and biodiversity 
Pressures and impacts on marine ecosystems 
Urbanisation and land use by agriculture and forestry 
Soil condition 
Air pollution and impacts on ecosystems  
Chemical pollution and impacts on ecosystems 
Climate change and impacts on ecosystems 
Resource-efficient, circular and low-carbon economy
Material resource efficiency 
Circular use of materials 
Waste generation 
Waste management 
Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation efforts   
Energy efficiency   
Renewable energy sources   
Emissions of air pollutants  
Pollutant emissions from industry 
Clean industrial technologies and processes 
Emissions of chemicals 
Water abstraction and its pressures on surface and groundwater 
Sustainable use of the seas 
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health and well-being
Concentrations of air pollutants  
Air pollution impacts on human health and well-being 
Population exposure to environmental noise and impacts on human health  z
Preservation of quiet areas 
Pollution pressures on water and links to human health 
Chemical pollution and risks to human health and well-being 
Climate change risks to society 
Climate change adaptation strategies and plans 
Indicative assessment of past trends (10-15 years) Indicative assessment of prospects of meeting selected
and outlook to 2030 policy objectives/targets
Improving trends/developments dominate Year  Largely on track
Trends/developments show a mixed picture Year  Partially on track
Deteriorating trends/developments dominate Year  Largely not on track
Note: The year for the objectives/targets does not indicate the exact target year but the time frame of the objectives/targets.
EU policies have been more effective But, again, there are persistent problems in some
areas and the outlook is worrying. For example,
in reducing environmental pressures some persistent and mobile chemicals resist even
than in protecting natural capital advanced drinking water treatment. Similarly,
and human health. although emissions of air pollutants have declined,
almost 20 % of the EU’s urban population lives in
areas with concentrations of air pollutants above
at least one EU air quality standard. Exposure to
eutrophication. The impacts of climate change fine particulate matter is responsible for around
on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to 400 000 premature deaths in Europe every year,
intensify, while activities such as agriculture, fisheries, and central and eastern European countries are
transport, industry and energy production continue disproportionately affected.
to cause biodiversity loss, resource extraction and
harmful emissions. Human health and well-being are still affected by
noise, hazardous chemicals and climate change.
Europe has made more progress in relation to Accelerating climate change is likely to bring
resource efficiency and the circular economy. increased risks, particularly for vulnerable groups.
Material consumption has declined and resource Impacts can arise from heat waves, forest fires,
efficiency improved as gross domestic product has flooding and changing patterns in the prevalence of
increased. Greenhouse gas emissions declined infectious diseases. In addition, environmental risks
by 22 % between 1990 and 2017, due to both to health do not affect everyone in the same way, and
policy measures and economic factors. The share there are pronounced local and regional differences
of renewable energy sources in final energy across Europe in terms of social vulnerability and
consumption increased steadily to 17.5 % in 2017. exposure to environmental health hazards. In
Energy efficiency has improved, and final energy general, the outlook for reducing environmental risks
consumption has declined to roughly the level in to health and well-being is uncertain. Systemic risks
1990. Emissions of pollutants to both air and water to health are complex and there are important gaps
have been reduced, while total EU water abstraction and uncertainties in the knowledge base.
decreased by 19 % between 1990 and 2015.
More recent trends are less positive, however. Understanding and responding to systemic
For example, final energy demand has actually challenges
increased since 2014 and, if that continues, the EU’s
2020 target for energy efficiency may not be met. The persistence of major environmental challenges
Harmful emissions from transport and agriculture can be explained by a variety of related factors. First,
have also risen, and production and consumption environmental pressures remain substantial despite
of hazardous chemicals have remained stable. The progress in reducing them. The pace of progress
outlook to 2030 suggests that the current rate has also slowed in some important areas, such as
of progress will not be sufficient to meet 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, industrial emissions,
and 2050 climate and energy targets. In addition, waste generation, energy efficiency and the share
addressing environmental pressures from economic of renewable energy. This implies a need to go
sectors through environmental integration has beyond incremental efficiency improvements and
not been successful, as illustrated by agriculture’s to strengthen the implementation of environmental
continued impacts on biodiversity and pollution of policies to achieve their full benefits.
air, water and soil.
The complexity of environmental systems can also
Europe has achieved some success in protecting mean that there is a considerable time lag between
Europeans from environmental risks to health and reducing pressures and seeing improvements in
well-being. For example, drinking and bathing water natural capital, and human health and well-being.
are generally of high quality throughout Europe. Environmental outcomes, such as biodiversity loss,
Societal systems of production • Interlinkages and feedbacks within systems mean
that change often produces unintended outcomes
and consumption (food, energy or surprises. For example, technology-driven
and mobility) must be transformed gains may be undermined by lifestyle changes,
to achieve Europe’s sustainable, partly because of ‘rebound effects’ when efficiency
low‑carbon future. improvements result in cost savings that enable
increased consumption.
• Production-consumption systems are also linked

are often determined by diverse factors, meaning directly and indirectly, for example through their
that the effectiveness of policy measures and local reliance on a shared natural capital base to provide
management efforts can be offset by external resources and absorb wastes and emissions. This
factors. These include global developments such ‘resource nexus’ means that addressing problems in
as growing populations, economic output and one area can produce unintended harm elsewhere,
resource use, all of which influence the situation in for example deforestation and increases in food
Europe. Looking ahead, concerns are also emerging prices due to biofuel production.
about drivers of change, such as technological
and geopolitical developments that have unclear The systemic character of Europe’s environmental
implications. challenges helps explain the limitations of
established environmental governance approaches
Perhaps the most important factor underlying in delivering needed change. Although signs of
Europe’s persistent environmental and progress have been observed across the food,
sustainability challenges is that they are inextricably energy and mobility systems, environmental
linked to economic activities and lifestyles, in impacts remain high and current trends are not
particular the societal systems that provide in accordance with long-term environmental and
Europeans with necessities such as food, energy sustainability goals.
and mobility. As a result, society’s resource use
and pollution are tied in complex ways to jobs A growing body of research and practice provides
and earnings across the value chain; to major insights into how fundamental systemic change
investments in infrastructure, machinery, skills and can be achieved. Such transitions are long-term
knowledge; to behaviours and ways of living; and to processes that depend critically on the emergence
public policies and institutions. and spread of diverse forms of innovation that
trigger alternative ways of thinking and living — new
The many interlinkages within and between societal social practices, technologies, business models,
systems mean that there are often major barriers nature-based solutions, and so on. It is impossible
to achieving the rapid and far-reaching change to know in advance precisely what innovations will
that is needed to achieve Europe’s long-term emerge, whether or how they will be integrated
sustainability objectives. For example: into lifestyles, and how they will affect sustainability
outcomes. Transitions therefore involve numerous
• Production-consumption systems are uncertainties, conflicts and trade-offs.
characterised by lock-ins and path dependency,
linked to the fact that system elements — This understanding of systemic change has
technologies, infrastructures, knowledge and so important implications for governance. First, the
on — have often developed together over decades. perceived role of government shifts from acting as a
This means that radically altering these systems ‘pilot’, with the knowledge and tools to steer society
is likely to disrupt investments, jobs, behaviours towards sustainability, to a role as an enabler
and values, provoking resistance from affected of society-wide innovation and transformation.
industries, regions or consumers. Top‑down planning still has a role in some contexts.
But governments also need to find ways to leverage Developing more systemic, long-term policy
the powers of citizens, communities and businesses. frameworks and binding targets: The growing
set of strategic policies addressing key systems
Achieving this requires contributions across policy (e.g. energy and mobility) and promoting the
areas and levels of government towards common transformation to a low-carbon and circular economy
goals. Environmental policy tools remain essential. are important tools for stimulating and guiding
But enabling systemic change will require a coherent action across society. But the coverage of
much broader policy mix to promote innovation long-term policy frameworks needs to be extended
and experimentation, to enable new ideas and to other important systems and issues, such as food,
approaches to spread, and to ensure that structural chemicals and land use. Comparable cross‑cutting
economic change produces beneficial and fair strategies are also needed at other levels of
outcomes. The complexity and uncertainty of governance — including countries, regions and cities.
transition processes means that governments Engaging stakeholders in developing transformative
will also need to find ways to coordinate and visions and pathways is important to reflect the
steer actions across society towards long-term diverse realities across Europe and to maximise
sustainability goals and to manage the risks environmental, social and economic co-benefits.
and unintended consequences that inevitably
accompany systemic change. Leading international action towards
sustainability: Europe cannot achieve its
sustainability goals in isolation. Global environmental
Where does Europe go from here? and sustainability problems require global responses.
The EU has significant diplomatic and economic
Taken together, the analysis in Parts 1-3 highlights influence, which it can use to promote the adoption
the persistence, scale and urgency of the challenges of ambitious agreements in areas such as biodiversity
facing Europe. Achieving the EU’s 2050 sustainability and resource use. Full implementation of the UN’s
vision is still possible, but it will require a shift in 2030 agenda for sustainable development in Europe
the character and ambition of actions. That means and active support for implementation in other
both strengthening established policy tools and regions will be essential if Europe is to provide global
building on them with innovative new approaches leadership in achieving sustainability transitions.
to governance. Drawing on the insights from across Using the Sustainable Development Goals as an
the report, Part 4 identifies a variety of important overarching framework for policy development in
areas where action is needed to enable transitions. the next 10 years could provide an important step
towards realising Europe’s 2050 vision.
Strengthening policy implementation,
integration and coherence: Full implementation Fostering innovation throughout society: Changing
of existing policies would take Europe a long trajectory will depend critically on the emergence
way to achieving its environmental goals up and spread of diverse forms of innovation that can
to 2030. Achieving full implementation will trigger new ways of thinking and living. The seeds for
require increased funding and capacity building; this shift already exist. More and more businesses,
engagement of business and citizens; better entrepreneurs, researchers, city administrations and
coordination of local, regional and national local communities are experimenting with different
authorities; and a stronger knowledge base.
Beyond implementation, Europe needs to address
gaps and weaknesses in policy frameworks, for Achieving the EU’s 2050
example in relation to land, soil and chemicals.
Better integration of environmental goals into
sustainability vision is still possible,
sectoral policy is also essential, as is improved but it will require a shift in the
policy coherence. character and scale of actions.
© Ivan Banović, WaterPIX/EEA
regions. Early identification of emerging risks and
Sustainability needs to become
opportunities related to technological and societal
the guiding principle developments needs to be combined with adaptive
for ambitious and coherent policies approaches, based on experimentation, monitoring
and actions across society. and learning.
Linking knowledge with action: Achieving

ways of producing and consuming. In practice, sustainability transitions will require diverse new
however, innovations often encounter major barriers. knowledge, drawing on multiple disciplines and
Public policies and institutions therefore have a vital types of knowledge production. This includes
role in enabling systemic change. Environmental evidence about the systems driving environmental
policies remain essential, but system innovation pressures, pathways to sustainability, promising
requires coherent contributions from diverse policy initiatives and barriers to change. Foresight
areas, ranging from research, innovation, sectoral and methods are an important way of engaging people
industrial policies to education, welfare, trade and in participatory processes to explore possible
employment. futures, outcomes and risks or opportunities.
Generating, sharing and using relevant evidence
Scaling up investments and reorienting finance: to the full may require changes in the knowledge
Although achieving sustainability transitions will system linking science with policy and action,
require major investments, Europeans stand to gain including developing new skills and institutional
hugely – both because of avoided harms to nature structures.
and society, and because of the economic and
social opportunities that they create. Governments
need to make full use of public resources to The next 10 years
support experimentation, invest in innovations and
nature‑based solutions, procure sustainably, and Achieving the goals of the 2030 agenda for
support impacted sectors and regions. They also have sustainable development and the Paris Agreement
an essential role in mobilising and directing private will require urgent action in each of these areas
spending by shaping investment and consumption during the next 10 years. To be clear, Europe will
choices, and engaging the financial sector in not achieve its sustainability vision of ‘living well,
sustainable investment by implementing and building within the limits of our planet’ simply by promoting
on the EU’s Sustainable Finance Action Plan. economic growth and seeking to manage harmful
side-effects with environmental and social policy
Managing risks and ensuring a socially fair tools. Instead, sustainability needs to become the
transition: Successful governance of sustainability guiding principle for ambitious and coherent policies
transitions will require that societies acknowledge and actions across society. Enabling transformative
potential risks, opportunities and trade-offs, and change will require that all areas and levels of
devise ways to navigate them. Policies have an government work together and harness the ambition,
essential role in achieving ‘just transitions’, for example creativity and power of citizens, businesses and
by supporting companies and workers in industries communities. In 2020, Europe has a unique window
facing phase-out via retraining, subsidies, technical of opportunity to lead the global response to
assistance or investments that help negatively affected sustainability challenges. Now is the time to act.
PART 1
Setting
the scene
00.
Reporting on
the environment
in Europe
20
© Lajos Aidu, WaterPIX/EEA
21
PART 1
SOER 2020/Foreword
PART 1
00.
Reporting on the environment
in Europe
A short history public. It draws on the knowledge

base available to the EEA and the
For 25 years, the EEA has operated as European Environment Information and
a knowledge broker at the interface Observation Network (Eionet), which is
between science, policy and society the partnership network between the
in Europe. Today, there is widespread SOER 2020 marks 25 years EEA’s 33 member countries (1) and six
recognition that environmental issues cooperating countries (2). EU policies
of the EEA’s reporting on the
touch on almost all aspects of society do not necessarily directly apply to the
and have implications for the types of
state of the environment EEA’s non-EU member countries and
knowledge needed by policymakers six cooperating countries; nevertheless,
and other stakeholders to underpin many of these countries follow the same
their actions. It is this backdrop that has or similar environmental and climate
guided the logic and contents of this to contribute to achieving long-term policy objectives, so they are included in
report, the sixth in a series of European objectives, notably the 2050 vision the assessment as far as possible.
environment state and outlook reports of ‘living well, within the limits of our
(SOER) produced by the EEA since planet’, as set out in the EU’s Seventh This report, SOER 2020, marks the 25th
1995, as mandated by its governing Environment Action Programme, or anniversary of state of the environment
regulation (EU, 2009). The structure 7th EAP (EU, 2013). reporting at the EEA and more than
and focus of the six reports have 30 years of reporting at the European
reflected and informed the logic of the Like the previous reports, The European level (CEC, 1987). In parallel, state of the
EU’s environmental policy (Table 0.1). environment — state and outlook environment reporting at the national
The reports have informed policy 2020 (SOER 2020) provides relevant, level has evolved rapidly, driven by
implementation by monitoring progress reliable and comparable knowledge the changing nature of environmental
towards established targets, and to support European environmental challenges and policy responses and
identified opportunities for EU policy governance and inform the European the continuous drive for innovation in
(1) The 28 Member States of the EU together with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.
(2) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99
and in line with the International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence).
SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe 23

PART 1
TABLE 0.1 The focus and context of SOERs 1995 to 2020
SOER Focus Input to EU environmental policy
1995 Addressed the Fifth Environment Action Programme (EAP) targets, Report for the mid-term review of the 5th EAP (1993-2000)
focusing on trends and sectoral integration, in the context of a
pan‑European assessment
1999 Addressed trends, outlooks and interconnections Input to the assessment of the 5th EAP (1993-2000)
2005 Addressed trends and outlooks, core indicators, country scorecard Input to the mid-term review of the 6th EAP (2002-2012)
analyses and long-term, flexible policymaking
2010 Addressed 6th EAP priorities, focusing on trends and outlooks, the global Input to the final assessment of the 6th EAP (2002-2012)
context, complex challenges and governance
2015 Addressed 7th EAP priorities, focusing on trends and outlooks, systemic Input to implementing the 7th EAP and a baseline for
challenges, the need for transitions and governance evaluating progress
2020 Addresses 7th EAP priorities and other broad frameworks (including Support to established EU environment policies and
the Sustainable Development Goals), trends and outlooks, systemic framing of future policies and programmes
challenges and sustainability transitions
Source: EEA.
assessment methods. Furthermore, implementation of environment and efficiency gains alone are likely to be
the 1998 United Nations Economic climate policies has delivered substantial sufficient. Such sustainability transitions
Commission for Europe Convention on benefits for the functioning of Europe’s will, by their character, entail profound
Access to Information, known as the ecosystems and human well-being, changes in dominant institutions,
Aarhus Convention, provided a strong the outlook in the coming decades is practices, technologies, policies, lifestyles
incentive to anchor regular state of worrying. Europe faces major challenges and thinking. They will inevitably
the environment reporting in national in addressing persistent environmental involve uncertainties and disruption
legislation in many countries. As a result, problems that are tied in complex — impacting industries, investments,
almost all Eionet countries now publish ways to systems of production and welfare systems and livelihoods. Yet
national state of the environment consumption. At the same time, in they also present major opportunities
reports on a regular basis, and more an ever more interconnected world, to boost Europe’s economy and
than half of the EEA member countries Europe’s ecological and societal employment and to put Europe at the
plan to publish a new edition of their resilience is increasingly affected frontier of science and innovation.
national report in 2019 or 2020 (Box 0.1). by a variety of global megatrends
(EEA, 2015b). Improving the knowledge base for
SOER 2015 conclusions and tackling sustainability transitions
follow‑up On this basis, SOER 2015 concluded in Europe will require a greater
that achieving the EU’s vision for use of anticipatory knowledge and
SOER 2020 builds on the conclusions of 2050, as set out in the 7th EAP, understanding of the changing global
its predecessor published in March 2015. requires fundamental transitions in context, in addition to interdisciplinary
Based on a detailed analysis of the the production-consumption systems and participatory processes. Therefore,
European environment’s state and driving environmental degradation, since the publication of SOER 2015,
trends, the SOER 2015 synthesis report including the food, energy and mobility the EEA and Eionet have collaborated
(EEA, 2015c) presented a mixed picture systems. It also stressed that neither in a range of knowledge co-creation
of policy successes and challenges. environmental policies alone nor activities to bring together evidence from
It demonstrated that, although economic and technology-driven experiences across Europe and to develop
24 SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

PART 1
transdisciplinary knowledge. Two of these assessment approach of SOER 2015

EEA-Eionet cooperation processes are SOER 2020 responds to and includes a range of assessments
briefly introduced in Box 0.2. that support various stages of policy
the environmental challenges
and decision-making. The report is
and the need to support structured into four parts (Figure 0.1).
SOER 2020 — an integrated fundamental transitions
assessment focused on to sustainability. Part 1: ‘Setting the scene’ comprises
sustainability two chapters. Chapter 1 assesses the
global-European context and trends
A plausible future requires a factual that will shape Europe’s efforts to
present (Snyder, 2018). Addressing achieve sustainability in the coming
trends across timescales is one of the decades. Therefore, it mostly relies on
key hallmarks of this report. Two other comprehensive referencing of scientific data and findings from international
hallmarks are (1) bridging geographical findings and an improved approach organisations and processes and
dimensions in recognition that the to appraisal and communication of includes an analysis of global
environment has no borders and aspects of quality and uncertainty, megatrends, European-specific trends
(2) providing integrated analysis across as well as of knowledge gaps. It also and emerging issues. Chapter 2 provides
the many environmental, economic, draws on stakeholders’ knowledge and an overview of Europe’s policies and
social and governance dimensions expertise (see also Section 0.2) and has long-term sustainability goals that
needed to achieve sustainability. been subject to extensive peer review are currently in place to address
(e.g. Eionet, EEA Scientific Committee, environmental and climate challenges.
This report comes at a time when international experts). These steps are
political initiatives are challenged by fundamental for ensuring the relevance, Part 2: ‘Environment and climate
false information and fake news. The credibility and legitimacy of the report, trends’ comprises 12 chapters that
need for sound scientific knowledge particularly when the underpinning assess European trends over the
becomes even more important in knowledge base and assessment past 10 to 15 years and provide an
this context (ESPAS, 2019). Linked characteristics are increasingly moving outlook for the coming 10 to 15 years.
to this, more people in Europe are towards a systemic understanding It provides an assessment of progress
questioning the value of established of problems and possible pathways towards established EU environmental
institutions, public policy and expertise towards sustainability. and climate policy goals, focusing
in ways that undermine confidence particularly on objectives and targets
in such structures and the value of Overall, SOER 2020 responds to the in the 2020‑2030 timeframe. Part 2
the knowledge supporting them challenges presented by an evolving includes 10 thematic assessments
(ESPAS, 2019). This report makes every policy landscape and the need to (Chapters 3 to 12): biodiversity and
effort to acknowledge these realities support fundamental transitions to nature; freshwater; land and soil;
by ensuring transparency through sustainability in Europe. It builds on the marine environment; climate change
FIGURE 0.1 Structure of the SOER 2020 report
PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 PART 4

Setting the scene Environment and climate trends Sustainability prospects Conclusions
2 chapters addressing: 12 chapters addressing: 3 chapters addressing: 1 chapter addressing:

· Assessing the global-European · 10 thematic assessments · Sustainability through a · Overall assessment of
context and trends · Environmental pressures and systems lens outcomes and reflections
· Europe's policies and sectors · Understanding sustainability on implications
sustainability goals · Summary assessment of challenges
progress to 7th EAP objectives · Responding to sustainability
challenges

PART 1
BOX 0.1 State of the environment reporting in Europe at a glance

Cyprus
Bosnia and Herzegovina

18
Montenegro
20
Switzerland
produces a systemic Liechtenstein
challenges and Kosovo (*)
sustainability transitions
focused Croatia
SoE report
17
20
Romania
Flanders (Belgium)
Serbia
produces a
systems-based Spain
SoE report
Albania
08
Lithuania
20
Montenegro
adapts its first
environmental law Italy
with the obligation North Macedonia
to publish a
99
SoE report Malta

19
Sweden
launches the Sweden
environmental
quality objectives, Norway
valid until today
Turkey
99
Slovenia
19
Bulgaria
publishes the
Latvia
quantitative
information Greece
97
in their SoE report

19
The four as open data Slovakia

United Kingdom
countries are made Luxembourg
responsible for all
aspects of the France
environment including Denmark
reporting
95
Czechia
19
The EEA
first SOER addresses Bulgaria
the Fifth Environment
Switzerland
Action Programme
targets Netherlands
88
The Netherlands
19
SoE report Estonia

Concern for
tomorrow Austria
initiates the first Dutch
national Portugal
environmental EEA/EC
policy plan
86
19
The first State of the Hungary

Environment in the
European Community Ireland
report is published as Germany
predecessor of the
72
EEA SOER reports Belgium

19
Finland
publishes the first Poland
national
United Kingdom
SoE report
Finland
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
SoE report published Published in 2019 Scheduled for publishing in 2020
Notes: SoE, state of the environment; (*) Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and in line with the
International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence).
Source: EEA and Eionet.

M Mi
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United Nations milestones

tio En en n 1 fo nt D oc 1 e
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state and outlook 2020 (SOER 2020)
tw ob t i Eu tin lim wo e d r en
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SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

si
ty e e
27
PART 1
PART 1
BOX 0.1 State of the environment reporting in Europe at a glance (cont.)
water & land)

En air,
vir d ia (
o n m enta l me
Themes
Biodiversity Freshwater Land Marine Climate

and nature and soil environment change
Emerging
the
m
es
Air Waste and Chemical Environmental Industrial

pollution resources in a pollution noise pollution
circular economy
Sectors
Agriculture Marine fisheries Forestry Transport Eco-industries

and aquaculture
Systems and sustainability transitions
The food The energy The mobility Sustainability

system system system transitions
mitigation and adaptation; air pollution; also responds to the challenge of

SOER 2020 provides a range waste and resources; chemical pollution; growing knowledge complexity by
environmental noise; and industrial using summary assessments that
of assessments
pollution. In addition, Chapter 13 take a consistent approach across the
that support the different addresses the role of sectors in meeting 10 thematic assessments. The summary
stages of policy environmental policy goals. assessments also include a new element
and decision-making. on robustness to improve transparency
As in 2015, the thematic and sectoral regarding the quality of evidence,
assessments retain a strong focus on uncertainty and knowledge gaps. The
implementation. However, SOER 2020 final chapter of Part 2, Chapter 14,
provides a stronger analysis of the draws on the thematic and sectoral
interlinkages across themes. In assessments to provide a summary
addition, country-level information is assessment of past trends, outlooks
integrated to facilitate improved sharing and progress towards policy objectives
of developments and approaches and targets structured by the objectives
that offer wider potential. Part 2 of the 7th EAP.

PART 1
State of the environment: tools and building blocks
Data Indicators Scoreboards Assessments

from showing environmental giving insight into providing knowledge on
Environmental monitoring Driving forces Environmental trends The state of the environment
Key registers and databases Pressures Policy progress Trends and outlooks
Dedicated data sources States Systemic challenges and responses
and analysis
Impacts
Responses
Advances in national state of the environment reporting

Effective indicators and robust evidence base Open and accessible knowledge Innovative sustainability assessments
that include the monitoring of emerging with an emphasis on digital information that address the challenges and prospects
themes, sustainability transitions, and long and usage of different digital channels, of long term sustainability transitions,
term systemic challenges but also interactive data visualisation and broaden stakeholder participation, indicate
incorporate new data sources. storytelling and provision of open data barriers and levers for participatory solutions
and models. and links assessment knowledge to action.
Part 3: ‘Sustainability prospects’ demand for knowledge on solutions and Translating knowledge into action
comprises three chapters and assesses responses, Chapter 17 complements the requires the involvement of a wide
long-term prospects (2030-2050), analysis of environment, climate and range of stakeholders. In response,
global interactions and opportunities sustainability challenges with a greater the EEA has designed SOER 2020 as
for systemic transitions to achieve emphasis on how Europe can respond. a process, extending over 2019 and
the EU’s sustainability objectives. 2020. The present SOER 2020 report,
Chapter 15 introduces the shift to Part 4: ‘Where do we go from here?’ represents the first component
a broader sustainability and more reflects on the implications of the in this process and provides the
systems‑oriented perspective. Chapter findings of Parts 1, 2 and 3. This foundation for subsequent stakeholder
16 responds to the need for an includes reflections on the current interactions aimed at exploring its
increased focus on understanding state of, trends in and outlook for conclusions and their implications.
and assessing the systemic character Europe´s environment, opportunities The second component will be a set
of today’s environmental challenges, for Europe’s environmental governance, of stakeholder events that will inform
including key production-consumption and broader enabling conditions to put the development of a ‘knowledge
systems such as energy, mobility and Europe on a path to a prosperous and for action’ report that the EEA will
food. Finally, in response to the growing sustainable future. publish in 2020.

PART 1
BOX 0.2 EEA-Eionet cooperation in building anticipatory knowledge for sustainability transitions
E3I Sustainability transitions: now Mapping Europe’s environmental Several countries (or regions) have
for the long term future: understanding the impacts of included the findings of these studies in
global megatrends at the national level their national state of the environment
R ecognising the need to develop

new knowledge to support
environmental governance, the
Drivers of change, including global
megatrends, are likely to bring risks
reports. The global megatrends analysis
for Switzerland (FOEN, 2016) is an
example of clear articulation of these
EEA and Eionet initiated the Eionet and opportunities, whose relative efforts. The study mainly followed the
Improvement and Innovation magnitude largely depends on the logic of the methodological toolkit
Initiative (E3I) after the publication of variability and specificity of local (EEA and Eionet, 2017). One of the
SOER 2015. Focusing initially on the environmental, economic and social key findings used to inform the Swiss
theme of sustainability transitions, E3I conditions. The EEA and the National national state of the environment report
work combined two major functions. Reference Centre for Forward-Looking (Swiss Federal Council, 2018) is that
First, EEA and Eionet partners Information and Services (NRC FLIS) Switzerland’s environmental challenges
engaged in a shared learning process have engaged in a joint activity to are all influenced by global megatrends.
about sustainability transitions and develop a methodological toolkit to For example, the Swiss food production
related knowledge needs. Second, the facilitate analysis of the implications of system is expected to be significantly
work produced empirical evidence global megatrends at the national level affected by climate change, leading to
about transition activities across (EEA and Eionet, 2017). both opportunities and risks. Additional
Europe, providing inputs to EEA work. in-depth studies confirmed that a longer
Many countries or regions in Europe growing season could be beneficial for
The E3I transitions activities were have now investigated how global agricultural production, but it might also
led by a working group of Eionet megatrends and other drivers of lead to water resource conflicts. Heat
national focal points and EEA staff, change may affect their environment waves, new diseases and water scarcity
who gathered case studies and inputs and society (Table 0.2). The majority of could also exert stress on dairy farming
from 26 EEA member countries and these studies were prompted by the and meat production, both being very
five European topic centres. The work EEA’s reporting on global megatrends important economic activities. As only
culminated in the publication of the (EEA, 2010, 2015a, 2015b) as well as 60 % of Swiss food consumption is
first Eionet publication, Sustainability the publication of the methodological accounted for by domestic production, the
transitions: now for the long term toolkit. While differences exist in the country will be vulnerable to future price
(EEA and Eionet, 2016), which used focus and scope of these studies, fluctuations in global food commodities
case studies and interviews to explain climate change has been analysed most triggered by climate change. Developing
and illustrate key concepts and to give frequently, followed by pollution loads, adaptation strategies will therefore be
a sense of the transformative activities population and urbanisation trends, crucial to ensure ecological and societal
already under way at local levels. and economic trends (Table 0.2). resilience in Switzerland. ■

PART 1
TABLE 0.2 Studies on implications of global megatrends at the national/regional scale and their thematic focus
Focus of national/regional study

Environment Resources Environment
and society
EEA global megatrends
(BE) (Flemish Environment Agency, 2014)
(Slovak Environment Agency et al., 2016)
(Valtioneuvoston kanslia, 2017)

(Naturvårdsverket, 2014)
(Naturvårdsverket, 2014)
Northern Europe (a)
Western Balkans
United Kingdom
(ETC/ICM, 2018)
Frequency (%)
(DEFRA, 2017)
Netherlands
(FOEN, 2016)
Switzerland
(PBL, 2013)
(SEA, 2018)
(MA, 2017)
Flanders
Hungary
Slovenia
Slovakia
Sweden
Finland
Social Diverging global population × × × × × × × × × 82
trends
Towards a more urban world × × × × × × × × × 82
Changing disease burdens × × × × × × 55
and risks of pandemics
Technological Accelerating technological change × × × × × × × 64
Economic Continued economic growth? × × × × × × × × × 82

An increasingly multipolar world × × × × × × 55
Intensified global competition × × × × × × × 64
for resources
Environmental Growing pressures on ecosystems × × × × × × × × 73

Increasingly severe consequences × × × × × × × × × × × 100
of climate change
Increasing environmental × × × × × × × × × 82
pollution
Political Diversifying approaches × × × × × x 55

to governance
Note: (a) ‘Northern Europe’ refers to a case study run for Germany and Sweden.
Source: EEA, based on NRC FLIS inputs.

01.
Assessing the
global-European
context and
trends
32
© Sibylle Maus, Sustainably Yours EEA
33
SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe
PART 1
Summary
• The period after the 1950s marks • Through trade, European
a unique period in human history in production and consumption
terms of human-induced global change patterns contribute significantly
and economic activity. This ‘Great to environmental pressures and
Acceleration’ has delivered enormous degradation in other parts of the world.
improvements in living standards and Depending on the type of resource,
well-being for millions of people. the associated total environmental
footprint of European consumption
• In turn, this has caused dramatic that occurs outside Europe is estimated
degradation of ecosystems and to be in the range of 30-60 %.
exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity,
including in Europe. Many of the • In conclusion, Europe, in common
changes observed in the global with other advanced economies,
climate system since the 1950s are has achieved high levels of human
unprecedented over decades to development (‘living well’) but at the
millennia and largely caused by human expense of being not environmentally
activities. In addition, many known sustainable. Europe currently does
pollution problems persist, while new not live up to its 2050 vision of ‘living
ones, such as certain types of chemical within the limits of our planet’. This
pollution, are emerging. calls for fundamental changes in
lifestyles, production and consumption,
• In an increasingly interconnected knowledge and education.
world, Europe is influenced by multiple
drivers of change. These can be
characterised as global megatrends,
more European-specific trends or
emerging trends with potentially
significant impacts. They include an
ageing population in Europe, changing
migration patterns, increasing
inequalities, global competition
for resources, the implications of
accelerating digitalisation and other
technological changes, and changing
lifestyles. Many of these drivers have
important influences on Europe’s
long‑term environmental outlook.

PART 1
01.
Assessing the global-European
context and trends
1.1 economic sectors globally with a total of

The Great Acceleration 1.18 billion international tourism arrivals
in 2015 (UNWTO, 2017).
Many key human achievements —
culture, farming, cities, industrialisation, This exponential trajectory of human
medical advances — have happened Since the 1950s there has activity and economic growth has
during a period in which the Earth’s delivered enormous improvements
been unprecedented and
natural regulatory systems, such as in living standards and well-being for
the climate, have been remarkably
accelerating human-induced hundreds of millions of people, especially
stable. This period spanning the last global change, causing in Europe and other highly industrialised
almost 12 000 years is referred to as tremendous pressures world regions. Other world regions have
the Holocene. However, the onset of also benefited from this growth. For
on Earth.
the Industrial Revolution around 1760 example, the percentage of the world’s
was accompanied by an increasing pace population living in extreme poverty
of change in human development and (i.e. living on under USD 1.90 a day, based
associated environmental degradation more than 4 billion today) (UNDESA, on the US dollar exchange rate of 2011)
and destruction. 2018); economic output in terms of has dropped from 42 % in 1981 to about
gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 10 % in 2013 (World Bank, 2018b). The
In particular, the period after the 1950s 12‑fold between 1950 and 2016 prevalence of stunting among children
marks a unique period in human (Bolt et al., 2018); fertiliser consumption under 5 years old due to malnutrition
history with unprecedented and of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium has dropped from almost 40 % in 1990
accelerating human-induced global increased 12-fold between 1950 and to 22 % in 2017 (World Bank, 2018c).
change, which has become known as 2010 (from 14.5 to 171.5 million tonnes However, at the same time the sheer
‘the Great Acceleration’ (Steffen et al., in 2010); and primary energy use size of the global population and the
2011, 2015b) (Figure 1.1). The global increased by almost a factor of five from intensity of human activities has caused
human population has tripled (from 1950 to 2008 (from 112 to 533 exajoules) tremendous pressures on the Earth’s life
around 2.5 billion to some 7.5 billion (Steffen et al., 2011, 2015b). In addition, support systems through climate change,
today) (UNDESA, 2017c); the number as a result of increased welfare and biodiversity loss and changes in the
of people living in cities has more than prosperity, international tourism is now chemical composition of the atmosphere,
quadrupled (from less than 1 billion to one of the largest and fastest growing oceans and soil, etc. Change is occurring
SOER 2020/Assessing the global-European context and trends 35

PART 1
FIGURE 1.1 Indicators for global socio-economic development and the structure and functioning of the Earth system
World population Real GDP Foreign direct investment

Billion Trillion USD Trillion USD
8 60 2.5
7
50
6 2.0
40
5 1.5
4 30
3 1.0
20
2
10 0.5
1
0 0 0.0
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
50
00
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
Urban population Primary energy use Fertiliser consumption
Billion Exajoule Million tonnes
8 600 200
7 180
500 160
6
140
5 400
120
4 300 100
3 80
200 60
2
100 40
1 20
0 0 0
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
00
50
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
18
18
17
19
19
20
Number of large dams Water use Paper production

Thousand Thousand km3 Million tonnes
35 4.5 450
30 4.0 400
3.5 350
25
3.0 300
20 2.5 250
15 2.0 200
1.5 150
10
1.0 100
5 0.5 50
0 0.0 0
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
Transport Telecommunications International tourism

Million vehicles Billion landlines and subscriptions Million arrivals
1400 7 1000
900
1200 6
800
1000 5 700
800 600
4
500
600 3 400
400 2 300
200
200 1 100
0 0 0
00
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
50
00
50
00
50
20
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
17
18
18
19
19
Note: GDP, gross domestic product.
Source: Steffen et al. (2015b).
36 SOER 2020/Assessing the global-European context and trends

PART 1
Carbon dioxide Nitrous oxide Methane

ppm ppb ppb
390 320 1 800
1 600
360
300 1 400
330 1 200
280 1 000
300
800
270 260 600

50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
19
17
18
18
19
20
Stratospheric ozone Surface temperature Ocean acidification
% ºC nmol kg -1
100 0.6 8.4
8.2
80 0.4 8.0
7.8
0.2
60 7.6
0.0 7.4
40 7.2
-0.2 7.0
20 6.8
-0.4
6.6
0 -0.6 6.4
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
18
17
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
Marine fish capture Shrimp aquaculture Nitrogen to coastal zone
Million tonnes Million tonnes Million tonnes yr-1
8 4.0 100
7 3.5 90
80
6 3.0
70
5 2.5 60
4 2.0 50
3 1.5 40
30
2 1.0
20
1 0.5 10
0 0.0 0
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
50
00
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
17
18
18
19
19
20
Tropical forest loss Domesticated land Terrestrial biosphere degradation

% % %
30 0.50 30
25
20 20
15
0.25
10 10
0 0.00 0
50
00
50
00
50
00
00
00
50
00
50
00
50
50
00
50
00
50
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
20
17
18
18
19
19
17
18
18
19
19

PART 1
1.2 Earth’s natural capital (1) is detrimental

The loss and degradation Unprecedented pressures to human development. Biodiversity
on planet Earth and ecosystems and their services
of our natural capital is
— the benefits people derive from
detrimental to human Human activities have caused nature — are fundamental for the
development. consistent widespread reductions existence of human life on Earth,
in species populations and the through providing food and feed, fibre,
extent and integrity of ecosystems energy, medicines, genetic resources;
(IPBES, 2019; UN Environment, 2019). regulating the quality of air, fresh
The Intergovernmental Platform for water and soils, regulating climate,
at a scale at which human activities Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services pollination, pest control and reducing
have now significantly altered the Earth (IPBES) estimates that 75 % of the the impact of natural hazards; and
system from the stable Holocene to a terrestrial environment and 40 % of the providing inspiration and learning, and
new human-dominated epoch referred marine environment are now severely physical and psychological experiences
to as the Anthropocene (Waters altered globally (IPBES, 2019). The (IPBES, 2019). Currently, degradation of
et al., 2016). Earth has experienced exceptionally the Earth’s land surface through human
rapid loss of biodiversity and more activities is negatively impacting the
Twenty-five years after the first ‘world species are threatened with extinction well-being of at least 3.2 billion people
scientists warning to humanity’, now than at any other point in human (IPBES, 2018). The increasing demand
15 000 scientists recently issued a history (IPBES, 2019). The abundance for more food, energy and materials
second warning, stating that: of wild species has declined drastically, comes at the expense of nature’s
both globally and in Europe (Chapter 3) ability to provide such services in the
Humanity has failed to make sufficient — a phenomenon referred to as the future and frequently undermines
progress in generally solving these ‘Anthropocene defaunation’ (Dirzo many of the services that underpin
foreseen environmental challenges, and et al., 2014; McCauley et al., 2015). almost every aspect of human well-
alarmingly, most of them are getting far The mass of humans today is an order being (IPBES, 2019). That means that
worse. Especially troubling is the current of magnitude higher than that of all humanity is running up an ecological
trajectory of potentially catastrophic wild mammals combined (Bar-On et debt that threatens the Earth system’s
climate change due to rising greenhouse al., 2018). Overall, evidence suggests ability to meet the needs of future
gas (GHG) emissions from burning fossil that the sixth mass extinction of generations and thereby jeopardises
fuels, deforestation, and agricultural Earth’s biota is already under way sustainable development, globally
production — particularly from farming (Leakey and Lewin, 1996; Ceballos and in Europe. In 2020, it is envisaged
ruminants for meat consumption. et al., 2015). Across the oceans, the that an ambitious post-2020 global
Moreover, we have unleashed a mass cumulative impacts of resource biodiversity framework will be adopted
extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 extraction and pollution have increased in the context of the Convention on
million years, wherein many current life causing a decline in the health of Biological Diversity to deal with these
forms could be annihilated or at least marine ecosystems (IPBES, 2019). At challenges.
committed to extinction by the end of this present, 31 % of global fish stocks
century (Ripple et al., 2017, p. 1026). are overfished (FAO, 2016), and Likewise, many of the observed changes
plastic pollution is increasing, with an in the global climate system since the
In the most recent Global risks report estimated 4.8 to 12.7 million tonnes 1950s are unprecedented over decades
2019 by the World Economic Forum, of plastic waste entering the ocean to millennia and largely caused by
environmental risks accounted for annually (Jambeck et al., 2015). human activities such as GHG emissions
three of the top five risks by likelihood from fossil fuel burning, agriculture
and four of the top five by impact In addition to its intrinsic value, this and deforestation (IPCC, 2013a). For
(WEF, 2019). unprecedented loss and degradation of example, atmospheric concentrations
(1) In this report, natural capital is used in line with the definition in the 7th EAP, i.e. it represents ‘biodiversity, including ecosystems that provide
essential goods and services, from fertile soil and multi-functional forests to productive land and seas, from good quality fresh water and clean
air to pollination and climate regulation and protection against natural disasters’. A structured and complete definition of natural capital was
developed under the EU MAES process. This distinguishes more explicitly abiotic natural capital and biotic natural capital (i.e. natural capital in
the 7th EAP) and their respective components (see also Figure 1.1 in EEA (2018)).

PART 1
of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane globally (UNEP, 2017b). In Europe, strong
(CH4) have increased by about 40 % and reductions in air emissions or peak
150 %, respectively, since 1750 and are exposure to ozone have been achieved,
projected to rise further (IPCC, 2013a). but background concentrations of
The Intergovernmental Panel on ozone, mercury and some persistent
Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that it Many known pollution issues organic pollutants are not declining
is extremely likely that these increases persist, while new ones are (UNECE, 2016). These concentrations are
in greenhouse gas concentrations highly influenced by air pollution in other
due to human activities have caused
emerging. parts of the world through long‑range
most of the observed changes in the transport and can be reduced only
climate system (IPCC, 2013a). The through internationally coordinated
global average annual near‑surface action (UNECE, 2016). While air quality
temperature in the period 2006‑2015 in emissions, the goal of achieving a has slowly improved in many of Europe’s
was 0.87 °C higher than the global temperature increase well below cities, many cities and regions still
pre‑industrial average (IPCC, 2018). 2 °C becomes out of reach (IPCC, 2018; experience exceedances of the regulated
The minimum extent of Arctic sea UNEP, 2018). In this context, the recent limits (Chapter 8). In addition, noise
ice has declined by about 40 % since EU strategy for a climate-neutral is an emerging human health issue
1979. In many world regions, including economy by 2050 in Europe (EC, 2018b) (Chapter 11), while climate change,
Europe, increases in the frequency is an important contribution and depletion of stratospheric ozone, loss of
and intensity of extreme climate step forward. biodiversity, etc., also adversely affect
events such as droughts and heavy human health.
precipitation have been observed Apart from continuing ecosystem
(IPCC, 2013b). Europe is also vulnerable destruction and the increasingly severe Moreover, human activities have
to climate change impacts occurring consequences of climate change, many substantially altered biogeochemical
outside Europe. In the coming decades, known pollution issues persist while cycles. For example, the modification
the economic effect on Europe of new ones are emerging. Pollution from of the nitrogen cycle, mainly due to
such impacts could potentially be plastic, electronic waste (e-waste) and fertiliser use in agriculture, is far greater
very high, and Europe can expect chemicals are of increasing concern in magnitude than the modification
to face challenges from increased globally and in Europe (Chapters 9 of the global carbon cycle as a result
climate-induced human migration and and 10). By 2050, there could be as much of GHG emissions (OECD, 2018a).
increased geopolitical and security risks plastic (by weight) as fish in the world’s The release of excessive nitrogen
in neighbouring regions (see EEA (2016) oceans (WEF et al., 2016), and the impact into the environment contributes to
and Chapter 7). of microplastics on the food chain is eutrophication in freshwater bodies
expected to be substantial. E-waste, and coastal areas, and atmospheric
Without drastic emission abatement containing numerous hazardous toxins, emissions of nitrogen pose considerable
measures in the coming two to has a current annual global growth rate human health risks (OECD, 2018a).
three decades, continued global of 3-4 %. In 2016, Europe was the second
warming will increase the likelihood largest generator of e-waste per person Ecosystem degradation and biodiversity
of severe, pervasive and irreversible (16.6 kg) (Baldé et al., 2017). The negative loss, climate change, pollution loads and
consequences such as the collapse of effects of persistent, bioaccumulative other global environmental challenges
natural ecosystems (the Arctic, coral and toxic substances are increasingly are intrinsically interlinked through
reefs, the Amazon forest) (Box 1.1) recognised, but their effects on humans numerous feedback loops at multiple
and the erosion of global food and ecosystems are still not well scales. For example, increasing levels
security or displacement of people understood (Chapter 10). of global warming will exacerbate
at unprecedented scales (Chapter 7). biodiversity loss and further erode the
Pathways reflecting the full A clean environment is essential for resilience of ecosystems. At the same
implementation of current mitigation human health and well-being. Current time, global warming will increase the
ambitions, as submitted by all countries levels of pollution are detrimental to likelihood of extreme climatic events
under the Paris Agreement, imply a human health, and approximately such as droughts and floods, which in
global warming of around 3 °C by 2100. 19 million premature deaths are turn amplify pressures on freshwater
If this ‘emissions gap’ is not closed estimated to occur annually as a result systems. These changes in turn put
by 2030 through strong reductions of pollution of air, soil, water and food pressure on land resources through

PART 1
drivers. In turn, certain systemic change from the perspective of Europe

When will human‑induced responses such as ecosystem‑based and its environment (EEA, forthcoming),
approaches are important for both which goes beyond previous EEA work
pressures exceed
climate change mitigation and on global megatrends (EEA, 2010, 2015)
environmental limits or adaptation as well as increasing to include more European‑specific
tipping points? ecosystem resilience (Chapter 17). trends and emerging trends. Six
broad clusters of drivers of change
have been distinguished (Figure 1.2).
1.3 While aspects related to climate and
aridification or increased loss of forest Drivers of change global environmental degradation
cover, which further contributes (cluster 2) are described in Section 1.3,
to accelerating climate change. Europe has played a pivotal role in the non-environmental clusters are
These multiple interdependencies shaping global changes over the last 50 briefly described below. A more
between environmental systems are to 70 years (Section 1.1) and is today detailed assessment, including
intertwined with societal needs such intertwined with the rest of the world in potential implications on Europe’s
as food production, energy security, numerous ways, for example through environment and society, be will
and freshwater supply, adding an trade, financial flows or geopolitical provided in a forthcoming EEA report
additional layer of complexity. For processes. This means that Europe (EEA, forthcoming).
example, the food system is a major and its environment are influenced by
driver of biodiversity loss, land and multiple drivers of change at various
soil degradation and GHG emissions scales. These can be characterised as
and a polluter of air, freshwater global megatrends — large-scale and
and oceans through eutrophication high-impact trends — (EEA, 2015), more
(UN Environment, 2019). The systemic European-specific trends or emerging
character of environmental challenges trends with potentially significant 1.3.1
and their links to systems of production impacts. Cluster 1: A growing, urbanising and
and consumption such as the food migrating global population
system will be explored further Some of the multiple and highly
in Part 3. interconnected drivers of change The world population exceeded
are environmental and climate 7.5 billion people in 2017, and it is
The continuation of the Great related, others are social, economic, projected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050
Acceleration due to rising consumption technological or political. Many of with most of the projected growth in
levels by a growing population raises the non-environmental drivers of developing countries (UNDESA, 2017c).
the critical questions of whether change have strong impacts on the In Africa, the population is projected
and at what point human-induced environment and climate and are to double from currently 1.3 billion
pressures exceed environmental limits of key importance in determining to 2.5 billion by 2050 (Figure 1.5). On
or tipping points (Box 1.1). Are there Europe’s long-term environmental the contrary, Europe is confronted
certain critical limits — for example outlook. Therefore, drivers of change with ageing populations, albeit with
related to global resource use, levels of are an important part of the context for differences in the projected trends
pollutants and emissions, or ecosystem European environmental policymaking among EU countries (EC, 2017b). In the
degradation — beyond which resilience aimed at developing responses to 28 EU member States (EU-28), almost
is eroded and abrupt changes in today’s systemic environmental 35 % of the population is expected to
the Earth system can no longer be challenges. be 60 or older in 2050 (UNDESA, 2017c).
excluded? In this context, the planetary This raises questions about a shortfall in
boundary framework examines the There are multiple options for working-age adults and poses challenges
tolerance levels of the Earth’s life identifying and grouping drivers of for social stability, (environmental)
support systems and has identified change into overarching thematic taxation and public health systems.
climate change and biodiversity loss clusters, depending on the purpose
as issues of serious concern (Box 1.2). and thematic emphasis. Possible foci Urbanisation and urban sprawl are
Climate change and biodiversity can be technology (OECD/DASTI, 2016), expected to further increase globally,
loss are intrinsically linked, as they economic aspects (WEF, 2017) or with a projected 68 % of the world’s
are influenced by many of the same geopolitics (ESPAS, 2017). This report population living in cities by 2050
indirect and direct socio-economic draws upon a synthesis of drivers of compared with 55 % today (UNDESA,

PART 1
FIGURE 1.2 Clusters of drivers of change
1 2
A growing, urbanising Climate change
and migrating and environmental
global population degradation worldwide
6 3
Diversifying Increasing
values, lifestyles scarcity and global
and governance competition
approaches for resources
5 4
Power shifts in the global Accelerating
economy and geopolitical technological change
landscape and convergence
Source: EEA.
2018). Africa and Asia together are 2000 to 260 million in 2017 (UNDESA,
projected to account for almost 90 % 2017a). Most international migration
of the estimated 2.5 billion increase is voluntary and driven by economic
in global urban population by 2050 opportunities and personal motives,
(UNDESA, 2018). In Europe, urban but forced displacement due to
growth is projected to be slower than armed conflicts or natural disasters 1.3.2
in Asia and Africa, and the share of is increasing. In 2017, Europe hosted Cluster 3: Increasing scarcity and
Europeans living in cities is estimated to about 2.6 million refugees and forced global competition for resources
rise from currently 74 % to around 80 % migrants (UNHCR, 2017). In the coming
in 2050. Most European capital cities decades, environmental degradation Global use of material resources
are expected to see noticeable urban and climate change are expected to increased 10-fold between 1900 and
growth, while other cities might contract become increasingly important drivers 2009 (Krausmann et al., 2009). It has
by up to 30 % (Eurostat, 2016). of migration (Missirian and Schlenker, continued to rise in recent years
2017), However, because of the complex (Figure 1.6) with projections suggesting
Besides, international migration is social, economic and environmental a doubling of demand by 2060
on the rise and increasingly affects factors underlying migration, estimates (IRP, 2019). This raises concerns about
Europe. The number of international of future migration volumes remain access to key primary and secondary
migrants increased from 170 million in highly uncertain (IPCC, 2018). raw materials and poses a challenge to

PART 1
BOX 1.1 Tipping points, critical thresholds and resilience
A tipping point is when a system

reaches a critical threshold at which
a small change in conditions can lead
If a system has been degraded,
e.g. ecosystem degradation through
multiple pressures, its resilience is
so-called ‘tipping elements’ have
been identified (Figure 1.3), which
are large‑scale components of the
to large, abrupt changes in the function reduced, making the system more Earth system, such as the Greenland
and structure of a system, shifting it prone to shifting states. ice sheet or the jet stream (Lenton
from one state to another. The existence et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012;
of tipping points increases the risk of The phenomenon of tipping points, Hansen et al., 2016; Steffen et al.,
such shifts given ongoing environmental critical thresholds and resilience can 2018). The transgression of certain
degradation. These shifts are difficult to be found in many different systems, tipping points for these elements could
reverse and can have drastic negative including natural, socio-ecological, trigger self‑reinforcing feedback loops
impacts on society. and societal systems. An example resulting in continued global warming
is the collapse of the cod fishery in even if human emissions were reduced
Resilience refers to the capacity Newfoundland in the early 1990s, to almost zero. It has been estimated
of a system to absorb disturbance caused by a combination of overfishing that several of these tipping elements
and reorganise while undergoing and regional climatic variability risk collapsing at temperature increases
change so that it retains essentially (Patel et al., 2018). between 2 and 3 °C, although many
the same function, structure, identity uncertainties remain (Schellnhuber
and feedbacks (Walker et al., 2004). In relation to climate change, several et al., 2016; Steffen et al., 2018). ■
FIGURE 1.3 Potential tipping elements and cascades according to estimated thresholds in global
average surface temperature
1-3 ºC Ice sheet

3-5 ºC
Arctic winter sea ice
> 5 ºC
Arctic summer sea ice

Permafrost
Jet stream
Boreal forest
Alpine
glaciers
Thermohaline
circulation
El Niño southern
oscillation
Sahel
Indian summer monsoon
Coral reefs
Amazon rainforest
West Antarctic ice sheet East Antarctic ice sheet
Source: Steffen et al. (2018).

PART 1
BOX 1.2 The planetary boundary framework
T he planetary boundary framework

identified nine processes that
regulate the stability and resilience of the
(6) land system change; (7) freshwater
use; (8) atmospheric aerosol loading; and
(9) introduction of novel entities such as
for climate change) and estimating
specific limits that humanity should stay
within. It is estimated that humanity has
Earth system — ‘planetary life support new substances or modified life forms already overshot the limits that define a
systems’ (Rockström et al., 2009; Steffen (Figure 1.4). Loss of biosphere integrity safe operating space for four planetary
et al., 2015a). The framework proposes relates to the widespread degradation boundaries, namely those for biosphere
precautionary quantitative planetary of biodiversity and ecosystems with integrity, climate change, land system
boundaries within which humanity can associated loss of ecosystem function, as change and biogeochemical flows (Steffen
continue to develop and thrive, also described in Section 1.2. Two boundaries et al., 2015a).
referred to as a ‘safe operating space’. It — climate change and biosphere
suggests that crossing these boundaries integrity — have been identified as core Much uncertainty remains regarding some
increases the risk of generating large‑scale boundaries, meaning that each of these of the control variables, and the limits
abrupt or irreversible environmental has the potential on its own to drive the of the planetary boundaries represent
changes that could turn the Earth system Earth system into a new state should they estimates based on currently available
into states detrimental or catastrophic for be substantially and persistently overshot scientific knowledge. These are likely to be
human development. and that the other boundaries operate further refined as scientific understanding
through their influence on these two core evolves. For example, efforts to further
The nine planetary boundaries are: boundaries (Steffen et al., 2015a). define and quantify biosphere integrity
(1) climate change; (2) change in are ongoing (Mace et al., 2014; Newbold
biosphere integrity; (3) stratospheric Seven of the nine planetary boundaries et al., 2016). The planetary boundary work
ozone depletion; (4) ocean acidification; (5) have been quantified at the global has been disputed by some scientists
biogeochemical flows — interference with scale by identifying control variables (e.g. Montoya et al.’s (2018) and Rockström
phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) cycles; (e.g. atmospheric CO2 concentration et al.’s (2018) responses). ■
FIGURE 1.4 The status of the nine planetary boundaries
Climate change
Beyond zone of uncertainty
Biosphere Genetic
(high risk)
integrity diversity
Novel entities
In zone of uncertainty
(increasing risk) Functional
diversity
?
Below boundary
(safe) ?
Boundary not
yet quantified Land system Stratospheric
change ozone depletion
Atmospheric aerosol
Freshwater
loading
use
Phosphorus
Ocean
Biogeochemical Nitrogen acidification
flows
Note: BII, biodiversity intactness index; E/MSY, extinctions per million species-years.
Source: Steffen et al. (2015a).

PART 1
© Antonio Atanasio Rincón, Sustainably Yours EEA

PART 1
FIGURE 1.5 Trends in total population by world region, 1950-2100
Million people
6 000 Estimates Projections
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Africa Europe Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia Northern America Oceania
Source: UNDESA (2017b).
economies that are highly dependent is projected to be increasingly assuming a continuation of current
on materials from international compromised by the combined policies and socio-economic trends
markets, such as Europe (Alessandrini effects of climate change and soil (OECD, 2012). Today 1.9 billion people
et al., 2017). A list of 27 ‘critical raw degradation (UNCCD, 2017). Since 2000, live in severely water-scarce regions,
materials’ crucial for European industry the growing global competition for and this number could increase to
— in particular green technologies — arable land is reflected in a sharp 5.7 billion by 2050 (UN Water, 2018).
but with particular risks in terms of increase in large‑scale transnational Water scarcity could impact southern
security of supply has been drawn up land acquisitions, primarily in Africa, Europe in particular (Veldkamp
by the EU (EC, 2017a) (Chapter 9). by foreign investors from Europe, et al., 2017). Likewise, global energy
North America, China and the demand could increase by 30 % up
Likewise, global demand for land is Middle East. As a result, large‑scale to 2040, assuming an annual global
projected to continue, in particular monocultures (e.g. for palm oil economic growth rate of 3.4 %
since 25-100 % more food would be production) often replace local access and increasing energy efficiency
required globally by 2050, depending to land and water (UNCCD, 2017; (IEA, 2017). Europe currently imports
on socio-economic and technical IPBES, 018). 54 % of all energy it consumes —
assumptions (Hunter et al., 2017). and it is particularly dependent on
Demand for biofuels is also expected to Similarly, global demand for water is imports of crude oil and natural gas
rise (OECD/FAO, 2018), and agriculture projected to rise by 55 % until 2050, (Eurostat, 2018b).

PART 1
FIGURE 1.6 Trends in global domestic extraction of materials, 1970-2017
Billion tonnes
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Biomass Fossil fuels Metal ores Non-metallic minerals
Source: WU Vienna (2018).
particular challenge for fully exploiting device to the internet’s network of

the potential benefits of key enabling networks — and big data and analytics.
technologies (EC, 2018a). These technologies provide numerous
applications and potential benefits, but
Accelerating technological innovation is they also pose risks and raise ethical
fuelled by the widespread digitalisation concerns, for example in relation to
1.3.3 of economies and societies worldwide. privacy and cybersecurity.
Cluster 4: Accelerating technological While this can increase productivity
change and convergence and energy efficiency, it is not yet clear Widespread digitalisation is also the
whether the energy and materials key enabler of the ‘Fourth Industrial
The global landscape of technological savings are enough to outweigh the Revolution’, which fuses digital
innovation is undergoing rapid negative sustainability impacts of technologies with nanotechnologies,
transformation. Developed economies information and communications biotechnologies and cognitive
are not alone in investing in research technology (ICT) (UN Environment, 2019), sciences — a trend referred to as
and development (R&D). For example, such as its huge demand for critical ‘technology convergence’ (OECD,
China is expected to reach the same raw materials (cluster 3). Apart from 2017b; Schwab, 2017). This is expected
R&D intensity (i.e. R&D as a percentage ICT, other technologies are increasingly to provide opportunities for more
of GDP) as an average Organisation for penetrating societies and economies, integrated and efficient industrial
Economic Co-operation and Development such as artificial intelligence (AI) — processes, personalised production, new
(OECD) member country by 2020 (OECD, the ability of machines and systems jobs and economic growth (EC, 2016;
2018c). In Europe, meanwhile, the stage to acquire and apply knowledge and OECD, 2018d). However, it has been
between the basic discovery research and to simulate intelligent behaviour), suggested that about 14 % of workers
the actual commercialisation — known the internet of things (IoT) — the are at a high risk of having most of their
as the ‘Valley of Death’ — remains a connection over time of almost any existing tasks automated over the next

PART 1
15 years (OECD, 2018d). Concerns also wealth might decline in the coming are already apparent in a shrinking
exist over the implications for human decades, whereas the wealth of the middle class (cluster 5). This may lead to
health (especially from nanotechnologies top 1 % of the global population, which growing social discontent and inequality,
and synthetic biology), and the captured 27 % of total income growth which in turn is one of the highest
implications for the environment are in the period 1980-2016, might increase obstacles to environmental sustainability
largely unknown (UNEP, 2017a). further (WIL, 2017). (UN Environment, 2019).
In addition, geopolitical uncertainties In parallel, new work patterns and

and tensions in the global multilateral lifestyles are emerging. With rapid
system are increasing (ESPAS, 2015). and pervasive technological change,
This is seen in the waning of the more jobs are likely to be automated
consensus on the benefits of (cluster 4) and the demand for highly
globalisation and trade liberalisation, skilled qualifications is expected to rise
1.3.4 resulting in countries turning away (IPPR, 2015). Although this creates new
Cluster 5: Power shifts in the global from multilateral agreements and opportunities, it poses challenges for
economy and geopolitical landscape increasing protectionist measures individuals, such as increasing mobility
(EPSC, 2018). For Europe, where needs, and for governments to prevent
Global economic output increased exports represented more than 50 % mass unemployment and job insecurity.
about 12-fold in the period from 1950 of its GDP in 2018, this is of great Life-long learning is becoming the
to 2016 (Bolt et al., 2018). Since the concern (EPSC, 2018). At the same norm and is increasingly supported
1990s, much of this global growth has time, other non-state actors such by a diversification of educational
been driven by emerging economies, as non-governmental organisations opportunities (OECD, 2017a). At
such as Brazil, China or India, reflecting (NGOs) and multinational businesses, the same time, numerous forms of
a shift in economic power. China’s are increasingly challenging traditional social innovation, such as the sharing
economy grew on average 9.5 % power relations (Ruggie, 2018). economy, community-oriented forms
annually between 1990 and 2017 of living or slow food movements, are
compared with 1.7 % in the euro area emerging. Yet, major lifestyle-related
(World Bank, 2018d). Measured in human health challenges remain, such
purchasing power parity (PPP), which as cardiovascular diseases, obesity
corrects for price differences between and cancer. For example, more than
countries, China’s GDP had already half of the EU’s population in 2014
surpassed the United States’ GDP in was estimated to be overweight
2013 (OECD, 2018b). In contrast, the 1.3.5 (Eurostat, 2018c). These trends are now
EU’s share of the global economy (in Cluster 6: Diversifying values, global, with 71 % of all deaths in 2016
PPP terms) could be halved between lifestyles and governance due to non-communicable diseases
2000 and 2050, dropping from 28 % approaches (WHO, 2018).
to 14 % (OECD, 2018b).
In the last few decades, identities,
Emerging economies have also been values and cultures have changed as 1.4
the main driver of a fast-growing global a consequence of globalisation, trade Europe’s production and
middle class, which reached 3.2 billion liberalisation (cluster 5) and digitalisation consumption
people in 2016 (Kharas, 2017). In (cluster 4). In emerging economies,
contrast, Europe’s middle class has this has led to increasing consumption Global drivers of change have impacts
contracted in most EU countries as (cluster 5) and the adoption of Western on Europe, but, in turn, European
a result of the 2008 financial crisis lifestyles. In contrast, in developed production and consumption patterns
and structural changes in the labour economies such as Europe, ageing also have implications for environmental
market (ILO, 2016). At the same time, populations (cluster 1) in combination pressures and degradation in other
inequalities within countries have with weak economic growth parts of the world. Key production-
been rising in Europe and emerging (cluster 5) and rising national debts consumption systems — for example
economies (OECD, 2015). Therefore, the in the aftermath of the 2008 financial energy, mobility and food — operate
prospects for the global middle class crisis (Eurostat, 2018a) have posed across and beyond European borders.
are highly uncertain, and some studies unprecedented challenges for welfare They contribute to meeting our
suggest that their share of global systems (EPRS, 2018), and the effects fundamental needs, but at the same

PART 1
time they are the root causes of inform EU climate and environmental
environmental and climate pressures Europe’s production and policymaking. The thematic chapters in
both in Europe and abroad. Part 2 (Chapters 3 to 13) primarily take
consumption patterns create
a territorial perspective, as they assess
The European economy has gone environmental degradation in the environment’s state, trends and
through a series of major industrial other parts of the world. prospects on the European territory.
transformations during the past two
and a half centuries. Since the 1950s, Overall European environmental
the structure of the European economy performance also has an influence
has shifted from an industry-intensive beyond the borders of the EU. In
towards a service-oriented economy. total environmental pressures resulting an increasingly globalised world
Alongside this, consumption patterns from consumption, irrespective of where characterised by feedbacks,
have also changed, with proportionally geographically the production of these interdependencies and lock-ins in
decreasing spending on basic needs goods and services has resulted in environmental and socio-economic
— for example food — and relatively environmental pressures. Therefore, the systems, this is of continually
more on ITCs, recreation and health consumption perspective also includes increasing importance (Section 1.4).
(Chapter 16). Overall, European the environmental pressures created Over the last decade or so, substantial
consumption levels are high compared around the world by European domestic scientific progress has been made in
with many other world regions. For consumption. quantifying the environmental footprints
example, the average EU-28 citizen embodied in internationally traded
spends 3.4 times more on goods and Reducing environmental pressures products through approaches such as
services than the global average (World from the territorial perspective is the multiregional input-output databases
Bank, 2018a). In that context, imports primary focus of most EU and national (e.g. Lenzen et al., 2013; Timmer et al.,
are an important component in meeting environmental and climate policies. At 2015; Tukker et al., 2016) or life cycle
final European demand for goods and present, the territorial perspective is the assessment approaches (Frischknecht
services, and trade is fundamentally only method accepted by international et al., 2018; Sala et al., 2019,
important for the European economy. environmental law to account for a forthcoming) Therefore, improved
country’s emissions and mitigation estimations of the environmental
The environmental consequences of efforts. For example, commitments to impacts of consumption in Europe
European production and consumption limit or reduce GHG emissions under are now available, providing a more
systems can be assessed from the Paris Agreement are implemented comprehensive picture of environmental
complementary perspectives (2). through ‘nationally determined performance.
The territorial perspective includes contributions’ (NDCs). In the EU, these
environmental pressures exerted by NDCs have to account for emissions The pressures associated with final
human activities within the European on the territory of each Member State, European consumption are higher than
territory. The production perspective thereby contributing to the collective the world average, and recent research
expands this to include pressures effort to achieve the EU NDC. Similarly, suggests that the EU is indeed a net
arising from production by European such a territorial approach is also the importer of environmental impacts
residents (companies and households), basis for the regulation of pollution (Sala et al., 2019; Wood et al., 2018;
irrespective of where geographically or the protection of ecosystems Beylot et al., 2019). Many internationally
these activities take place, and is the and biodiversity. Consequently, traded goods are produced in world
methodology used in compiling European the territorial and production regions with low production costs
environmental‑economic accounts. The perspectives of Europe’s environmental and weak environmental regulation.
consumption or footprint (3) perspective performance are captured in a large The prices of internationally traded
complements these by relating body of environmental indicators, goods rarely incorporate the costs
environmental pressures to final demand accounts and assessments, providing of environmental externalities, i.e.
for goods and services. It includes the an indispensable knowledge base to the embodied impact of the land and
(2) There are three accounting perspectives: (1) territorial; (2) production; and (3) consumption. Detailed description of the concepts and
methodologies behind these different perspectives can be found in an EEA report (EEA, 2013).
(3) In this report, the term ‘environmental footprint’ indicates environmental pressures or impacts directly and indirectly associated with
consumption of goods and services. It should not be confused with the ‘product environmental footprint’ or the ‘organisation environmental
footprint’, which are specific assessment methodologies (EC, 2013).

PART 1
water used, the GHGs emitted or the challenges and opportunities. The
biodiversity affected. Decision‑makers Depending on the type of characteristics of these challenges and
and consumers in importing countries the opportunities to respond to them
are often not fully aware of these
resource, the associated total are explored further in Part 3.
displacement effects. Focusing solely environmental footprint of
on the environmental impacts within European consumption that
Europe without considering the occurs outside Europe is 1.5
additional environmental impacts Is Europe living within the limits
abroad can result in an overly positive
estimated to be in the range of the planet?
perception of Europe’s sustainability. of 30-60 %.
The EU’s Seventh Environment Action
The volumes of water required for the Programme (7th EAP) sets out the
production of a commodity traded 2050 vision of ‘Living well, within
for consumption in another region the limits of our planet’ (Chapter 2),
is often referred to as ‘virtual water’. the EU’s increasing dependence on recognising that Europe’s economic
Estimates suggest that, for example, Latin America as a main supplier. While development and human well-being
more than 40 % of the water needed to the extent of associated environmental are intrinsically linked to a resilient
produce products consumed in Europe pressures at the places of origin has and healthy natural environment. In
is used outside the EU territory (Tukker not yet been quantified, there is strong general, advanced economies in Europe
et al., 2016). Europe, with only about 7 % scientific consensus that international and elsewhere have achieved high
of the global population, was responsible trade chains contribute to accelerating levels of human development (living
for over 28 % of the imports of virtual habitat degradation and that EU well) but at the expense of not being
water flows globally in 2009 (Serrano consumption exerts considerable environmentally sustainable (i.e. living
et al., 2016). Likewise, the EU countries pressure on many biodiversity within environmental limits; Figure 1.8).
rely heavily on ‘virtual land’ to meet hotspot areas globally (e.g. Moran and Figure 1.8 uses the ecological footprint
their own consumption needs related Kanemoto, 2017). as a proxy for environmental limits, but
to bioenergy and food production. there are other approaches. For example,
Recent estimates suggest that more To summarise, it can be concluded that a recent analysis of seven indicators of
than half of the EU’s land needs (arable Europe is highly dependent on resources national environmental pressures and
land, pastures, forests) are based extracted or used outside Europe, such 11 indicators of social outcomes for over
on land use abroad (Yu et al., 2013; as water, land use products, biomass 150 countries found that no country
Tukker et al., 2016). or other materials, to meet its high meets the basic needs of its citizens at
consumption levels. This means that globally sustainable levels of resource use
Europe’s impact on ecosystems outside a large part of the environmental (O’Neill et al., 2018).
its territory can also be illustrated by impacts associated with European
analysing the origin of biomass products consumption is exerted in other parts Regardless of which proxies and
consumed in Europe, such as food, of the world. In 2011, this ranged from perspectives are used, assessing
fibre or bioenergy. One way to quantify 31 % (energy use) to 61 % (land use) whether a region lives ‘within the limits
the share of products from agriculture (Figure 1.7). Between 1995 and 2011, of our planet’ is challenging. Several
and forestry with non-EU origins is the Europe’s footprint increased across all studies have explored this by applying
‘embodied human appropriation of net resource or impact categories, with the the planetary boundaries framework
primary production’ (eHANPP) approach largest increases being for energy use to examine the environmentally safe
(Haberl et al., 2012). (Kastner et al., 2015) and material use (Figure 1.7). Assessing operating space at sub-global scales:
found that the share of biomass products Europe’s environmental performance one study each for Sweden (Nykvist
with non-EU origins that are consumed in using different but complementary et al., 2013), South Africa (Cole, 2015)
the EU increased from about 29 % in 1986 perspectives provides a more in-depth and Switzerland (Dao et al., 2018) and
to 41 % in 2007. Moreover, this indicates understanding of Europe’s sustainability three studies for the EU (Hoff et al., 2014)

PART 1
FIGURE 1.7 Share of Europe’s final demand footprint exerted outside European borders
Percentage
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2011
Land use (km²) Water consumption (million m³) Material use (kt) Global warming potential (kgCO2e) Energy use (TJ)
Note: Geographical coverage = EU-28 plus Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.
Source: EEA and European Topic Centre on Waste Materials in a Green Economy’s own calculations based on Exiobase 3 (Stadler et al., 2018).
(Boxes 1.3 and 1.4). The first step in idea of equal rights for everyone — allocation approaches, most allocation
such an exercise is to disaggregate and and have found large overshoots of results are lower than the current
allocate the globally defined limits of the the safe operating space for several environmental footprints. Thus, the
planetary boundaries to specific national planetary boundaries. However, authors concluded that the Netherlands
or European ‘allowances’, or ‘shares’, there are alternative ways to define is not living within its safe operating space
and then to measure the actual national a safe operating space for a region (Lucas and Wilting, 2018). Similar results
or European performance against depending on ethical and normative have been found at the EU level based on
such ‘down-scaled’ allowances from a choices regarding aspects of fairness, an assessment of Europe’s environmental
production- and/or consumption‑based (historical) responsibility, capacity to footprint (Box 1.4).
perspective. act, international burden sharing, or
the right to economic development. As The three studies that have applied
Allocation of globally defined limits experiences with climate negotiations planetary boundaries to the European
for planetary boundaries to national have shown, agreeing on allocations can scale (Hoff et al., 2014); Boxes 1.3 and 1.4)
or European allowances is inevitably a be problematic and contentious. also concluded that Europe currently
normative process about responsibility does not live ‘within the limits of our
for responding to and mitigating Only a few attempts have been made planet’. Instead Europe overshoots its
environmental degradation and about to understand how multiple allocation share of the global ‘safe operating space’
fair allocations of the global safe principles will affect estimates of the for several planetary boundaries, even
operating space. Most existing studies safe operating space. A study from the under generous assumptions of what
have applied a simple ‘equal per capita’ Netherlands showed that, despite the Europe’s share of these global boundaries
approach — which assumes the basic large range resulting from multiple might be. The studies also suggest that

PART 1
FIGURE 1.8 Correlation between ecological footprint and human development index
Ecological footprint (hectares per person per year)
10
2
Living within environmental limits
Living well
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Human Development Index
EU Member States World biocapacity Very high human development
Note: The human development index (HDI) is calculated based on indicators of education, life expectancy at birth and wealth. It is expressed
as a value between 0 and 1, from least to most developed countries. HDI scores between 0.8 and 1.0 are categorised as ‘very high
human development’. The ecological footprint measures how much land and water area a population requires to produce the
resources it consumes and to absorb its waste. The world biocapacity is the global productive area available to produce resources and
absorb waste. The HDI and ecological footprint data are from 2014.

PART 1
BOX 1.3 Operationalising the concept of a safe operating space at the EU level — first steps and explorations
A s a first step, the scientific

evidence base for Europe for the
following six planetary boundaries
Europe’s share of the global population
(approximately 7 %). A systematic
compilation of Europe’s current
Transgressions of the limits of
planetary boundaries are generally
higher for the consumption-based
has been analysed: (1) climate change; production- and consumption-based (footprint) perspective, reflecting
(2) biosphere integrity; (3) land performance from scientific studies in that the EU is contributing to
system change; (4) freshwater use; relation to these planetary boundaries environmental pressures beyond its
(5) biogeochemical flows (nitrogen and was used to assess whether the EU own territory due to goods imported
phosphorus); and (6) novel entities appears to be ‘living within the limits of into and consumed in the EU.
(chemical pollution). Subsequently, a our planet’.
simple ‘equal per capita’ disaggregation Trends over time show that
and allocation approach was followed The study concluded that: decreases in Europe’s territorial
for those planetary boundaries for pressures are mostly outweighed
which the global limits are available The EU does not appear to be ‘living by increasing environmental
and can be quantified at the European within the limits of our planet’ for the pressures in other world regions,
scale (climate change, land system majority of the boundaries analysed thereby externalising the
change, freshwater use, nitrogen (based on equal per capita allocation EU’s environmental footprint.
flows and phosphorus flow). ‘Equal approach). As a result, Europe’s total
per capita’ assumes the basic idea of consumption‑based environmental
equal rights for everyone and means Transgressions of the limits of planetary performance does not show an
that the European critical limits were boundaries are generally higher in Europe improving trend for most planetary
calculated simply as a function of than the global average. boundaries. ■
Source: Häyhä et al. (2018).
uncertainty on the limits of the sustainability vision and current overall EU

Fundamental changes in planetary boundaries, numerous environmental performance, which will be
other studies employing input-output examined in much more detail in Part 2.
lifestyles, production and
analysis largely confirm the findings
consumption, knowledge and that EU environmental footprints are This calls for fundamental and deep
education are needed for above sustainable levels (Tukker et al., changes in relation to the functioning
Europe to transition towards 2016; Wood et al., 2018). of Europe’s socio‑economic systems,
lifestyles, education systems and
sustainability.
Overall, this suggests that Europe institutions and to how knowledge is
still consumes more resources and produced and used. Such sustainability
contributes more to ecosystem transitions are inevitably complex
the European overshoots of the limits are degradation, both within and and long term in character, but they
greater than the global average for most beyond its territory, than many other require action now. Given Europe’s
planetary boundaries. world regions. In addition, from a embeddedness in globalised
consumption-based perspective, socio‑economic structures and trade
Other studies have looked at the EU’s Europe is more unsustainable flows, new approaches and innovation
consumption from a life cycle perspective than it is from a production-based will be needed. Part 3 assesses in more
in a planetary boundary context and perspective. In other words, Europe is, detail the challenges and opportunities
similarly conclude that EU consumption to an increasing degree, externalising to enable long-term transitions towards
is environmentally unsustainable and its pressures on key environmental sustainability, as envisaged by the
not within limits of the planet (Sala issues. This suggests that there is still a EU’s 7th EAP and the Sustainable
et al., 2019). While there is considerable substantial gap between the EU’s 2050 Development Goals.

PART 1
BOX 1.4 Assessment of Europe’s environmental footprint based on planetary boundaries
T he study assessed whether Europe’s

environmental footprints are within
the ‘safe operating space’ defined by
of economic throughput, biocapacity and
land availability.
data (Exiobase, version 3) for three
planetary boundaries: (1) land system
change; (2) biogeochemical flows
the planetary boundaries framework by Capability: resource needs according to (phosphorus, nitrogen, addressed
using a ‘basket’ of allocation approaches. wealth and financial capability. separately); and (3) freshwater use.
It explored the implications of using The results largely confirm the findings
four allocation principles proposed The principle of sovereignty results in the from Häyhä et al. (2018). European
in the context of climate negotiations highest European share of the global safe transgressions are substantial for
(e.g. Höhne et al., 2014), in addition to the operating space (median of 12.5 %), while phosphorus and nitrogen, regardless of
equality principle: the principle of rights to development which allocation principle is used. The
results in the lowest share (median of land boundary is transgressed when
Needs: people’s different resource needs 4.1 %). The yellow range in Figure 1.9 applying the equality, needs, rights to
due to age, household size, location of represents the average range across the development and capability principles
residence. five allocation principles, with a median but not when using the economically
of 6.9 %. This yellow range is defined as determined sovereignty principle (not
Rights to development: resource needs the ‘zone of uncertainty’ to reflect the seen in the averaged yellow range in
proportional to development level (more normative process of defining a European Figure 1.9). The freshwater boundary is
resources to less developed countries to safe operating space. not transgressed in Europe as a whole,
enable them to meet their development regardless of which allocation principle
objectives). This basket of allocation approach is applied. However, this does not mean
has been tested at the European scale that there are not severe regional water
Sovereignty: resource needs as a function with consumption-based footprint issues, especially in southern Europe. ■
FIGURE 1.9 European consumption-based performance for selected planetary boundaries

6 2
Land system change (Land cover anthropisation) (10 km )
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nitrogen cycle (Nitrogen losses) (Tg N)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Phosphorus cycle (Phosphorus losses) (Tg P)
0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24

Freshwater use (km )3
0 200 400 600 800 1 000
Within estimated European share of global safe operating space

Zone of uncertainty (increasing risk)
Beyond estimated European share of global safe operating space (high risk)
European footprint in 2011
Notes:
The yellow zone of uncertainty represents the average range across the six principles to allocate a European share of the global safe
operating space.
The study takes a conservative approach, as it calculates the European share based on the lower end values of the global zone of
uncertainty defined by Steen et al. (2015). For example, the global zone of uncertainty for freshwater is defined as 4 000-6 000 km3 in
Steffen et al. (2015). This study uses 4 000 km3 as the basis for calculating the European share. In some cases (indicated in brackets)
slightly different control variables have been used than in Steffen et al. (2015).
Source: EEA and FOEN (forthcoming).

02.
Europe’s
policies and
sustainability
goals
54
© Simone Manfredi
55
PART 1
Summary
• Recognising persistent • Since The European environment
environmental and climate challenges — state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015)
at European and global scales, report was published, significant
European environmental and climate policy developments have occurred
policymaking is increasingly driven around the low-carbon economy and
by long-term sustainability goals, the circular economy frameworks, in
as embedded in the EU’s Seventh particular with the adoption of the
Environment Action Programme 2030 climate and energy framework
(7th EAP) 2050 vision, the 2030 agenda and the 2018 circular economy
for sustainable development and the package, and have been complemented
Paris Agreement on climate change. by an update of the bioeconomy
strategy.
• The current European
environmental and climate policy • Environmental and climate action
landscape reflects a diversity of is also pursued through broader
approaches and instruments adopted institutional arrangements, such as the
since the 1970s. European policies climate-related expenditure accounting
have evolved from targeted regulatory for at least 20 % of the EU’s budget for
interventions on specific issues 2014-2020 and the sustainable finance
to a stronger focus on integrating initiative.
the environmental dimension into
sectoral policies and, more recently, to • European citizens are highly
macro‑integrated policy packages with supportive of environmental protection
a broader sustainability perspective. and climate action, while cities and
other local actors are increasingly
• EU environmental policies are proactive in launching environmental
mainly framed around three 7th EAP and climate initiatives that support the
policy priorities: (1) to protect, achievement of the EU’s objectives and
conserve and enhance the EU’s targets.
natural capital; (2) to turn the EU
into a resource-efficient, green and
competitive low‑carbon economy; and
(3) to safeguard the EU’s citizens from
environment-related pressures and
risks to their health and well-being.

PART 1
02.
Europe’s policies and
sustainability goals
2.1 in many ways (Chapter 1 and Part 3).

Europe’s long-term It builds on the understanding that
sustainability goals how we live, exchange, consume or
produce is deeply interconnected
2.1.1 with our environment through a
The 2050 vision of the Seventh complex web of interrelationships,
Environment Action Programme EU environment policy aims related to what we extract from it
(e.g. natural resources, energy), what
Europe has increasingly recognised
for a Europe that lives well, we release into it (e.g. pollutants,
in its policies the unprecedented within the limits of our planet. chemicals) or what we disrupt in its
pressures caused by human activities functioning (e.g. climate, ecosystems,
on planet Earth and the role played by nutrient cycles). Addressing persistent
the European economy in that regard environmental and climate challenges,
(Chapter 1). In particular, European such as the loss of biodiversity, climate
environmental policy is aimed at ‘living change, the degradation of ecosystems,
well, within the limits of our planet’. In the unsustainable management of
2013, with the adoption of the Seventh restored in ways that enhance our society’s natural resources or the adverse
Environment Action Programme resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long effects of pollution on human health,
(7th EAP), the EU endorsed the above been decoupled from resource use, setting will require fundamental changes in
long‑term sustainability goal and turned the pace for a safe and sustainable global our society and economy (EEA, 2015a).
it into a vision with a horizon of 2050 to society. (EU, 2013a) By setting a distant time horizon, the
guide its environmental action: vision recognises that important and
The vision reflects a greater recognition sustained efforts will be required over
In 2050, we live well, within the planet’s that the prosperity, health and several decades.
ecological limits. Our prosperity and well-being of European citizens are
healthy environment stem from an intrinsically linked to a resilient and The 7th EAP 2050 vision is a true
innovative, circular economy where healthy natural environment in Europe sustainability vision, which goes
nothing is wasted and where natural and also at a planetary scale, as beyond environmental issues per se. It
resources are managed sustainably, environmental degradation elsewhere echoes the founding principles of the
and biodiversity is protected, valued and can have negative effects in Europe international Brundtland Commission
SOER 2020/Europe’s policies and sustainability goals 57

PART 1
long‑term, global sustainability Environmental sustainability is also

European environmental frameworks have been endorsed by sought in relation to agriculture (SDG 2),
the EU and complement the 7th EAP health (SDG 3), water (SDG 6), energy
and climate policy is vision: the 2030 agenda for sustainable (SDG 7), tourism (SDG 8), infrastructure
increasingly driven by development and the Paris Agreement and industry (SDG 9), cities (SDG 11)
long‑term sustainability goals. on climate change. and consumption and production
patterns (SDG 12). Overall, 41 of the
169 targets address the quality of the
2.1.2 physical environment either directly or
on sustainable development (WCED, The 2030 agenda and the indirectly.
1987), reiterated by former United Sustainable Development Goals
Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Instrumental in shaping the 2030
Ki-moon: ‘At its essence, sustainability In 2015, world leaders adopted agenda, the EU has expressed its
means ensuring prosperity and the 2030 agenda for sustainable ambition to play, together with its
environmental protection without development, along with a set of Member States, a leading role in its
compromising the ability of future 17 Sustainable Development Goals implementation (EU, 2018g). In 2016,
generations to meet their needs.’ (Ban (SDGs) and 169 associated targets the European Commission outlined
Ki-moon, 2014). Those principles have (UN, 2015b; Figure 2.1). Universal in its strategic approach and committed
long since been at the heart of the scope, it applies to all countries at itself to integrating the SDGs in both
European project, with sustainable all levels of development, taking into its internal and its external policies
development included in the Treaty of account their ‘different capacities and (EC, 2016b). The first steps included the
Amsterdam as an overarching objective circumstances’. The setting of these mapping of EU policies and actions for
of EU policies (EU, 1997). Article 3 of goals built on the experience of the each SDG (EC, 2016a), the publication of
the Treaty on European Union currently Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), an annual monitoring report on the EU’s
in force states that, ‘[The Union] shall which made an ‘enormous contribution progress towards SDGs on the basis
work for the sustainable development in raising public awareness, increasing of 100 indicators (Eurostat, 2018), and
of Europe based on balanced economic political will and mobilising resources the setting-up of a multi‑stakeholder
growth and price stability, a highly for the fight to end poverty’ (EU, 2018g). platform to support and advise the
competitive social market economy, Following up on the Rio+20 conference European Commission (EC, 2018h).
aiming at full employment and social in 2012, the 2030 agenda expands In January 2019, the European
progress, and a high level of protection the scope of the MDGs to address Commission adopted the reflection
and improvement of the quality of the poverty eradication along with the paper ‘Towards a sustainable Europe
environment’ (EU, 2007). The 7th EAP economic, social and environmental by 2030’ to launch a forward‑looking
is one of the key policy frameworks dimensions of sustainability, as well as debate among EU citizens, Member
to achieve this overall goal for the underlying issues related to institutions, States and other stakeholders on
EU. Beyond setting its 2050 vision, it governance, the rule of law, peace and how to best progress on the SDGs
provides a more concrete overarching international collaboration. In particular, (EC, 2019c).
framework for shorter term objectives the UN has stressed that the agenda
and targets the time horizon 2020/2030 should be viewed as an indivisible Apart from the 2030 agenda, the
(Section 2.3 and Part 2). whole, in which all targets — be they of year 2015 gave rise to several other
an economic, social or environmental international agreements in the field
Besides, the 7th EAP vision is fully nature — are equally important of sustainability, including the Addis
aligned with global objectives, such (Chapter 15). Ababa Action Agenda of the Third
as the global recognition of the International Conference on Financing
importance of protecting biodiversity Many SDGs embed a strong for Development (UN, 2015c), which
and ensuring the provision of the environmental dimension and provides a global framework for
ecosystem services on which human have dedicated targets to progress mobilising public and private resources
societies depend, as reflected in the on core environmental issues. In and investments for sustainable
2020 Aichi biodiversity targets of the particular, SDG 13 promotes climate development, the Sendai Framework
UN Convention on Biological Diversity. action, while SDGs 14 and 15 aim to for Disaster Risk Reduction (UN, 2015a),
Since The European environment — state advance the conservation of marine which sets a new global approach
and outlook 2015 report (SOER 2015) and terrestrial ecosystems and the to disaster risk management policy
was published, two significant, sustainable use of their resources. and operations, and, above all, the
58 SOER 2020/Europe’s policies and sustainability goals

PART 1
FIGURE 2.1 The Sustainable Development Goals
Source: UN.
Paris Agreement on climate change average temperature to well below 2 °C

(UNFCCC, 2015b). The 2030 Agenda for above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase
Sustainable Development
to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’.
2.1.3 and the Paris Agreement are Parties also agreed to ‘[increase] the
The Paris Agreement two examples of ambitious, ability to adapt to the adverse impacts
international agreements on of climate change’ (UNFCCC, 2015b). To
Only a few months after the adoption of accomplish these goals, the Parties aim
sustainability.
the 2030 agenda, the 21st Conference to reach a global peak in greenhouse
of the Parties (COP 21) of the United gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible
Nations Framework Convention on and to achieve net zero emissions in the
Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in second half of this century.
Paris on 12 December 2015. In total, and the planet’ (UNFCCC, 2015a). This
196 countries adopted the first-ever responds in particular to the scientific In contrast to the previous international
universal, legally binding global climate evidence compiled and reviewed by the treaty, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol,
agreement, commonly referred to as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate which covered only about 12 % of
the Paris Agreement, with the aim of Change (IPCC) (Chapter 1). global emissions (UNFCCC, 1997),
strengthening the global response to the all major emitters have adopted the
‘urgent and potentially irreversible threat The Paris Agreement sets the ambitious legally binding obligations of the Paris
[of climate change] to human societies goal to ‘[hold] the increase in the global Agreement. However, in 2017, the

PART 1
United States announced its withdrawal safe drinking water, and the reduction of
from the Paris Agreement, which, in exposure to hazardous chemicals.
practice, may become effective in late
2021 (UNFCCC, 2017). In Europe, as However, by the 1980s, it had become
required by the Agreement, the EU and increasingly clear that such targeted
its Member States have submitted their European environmental policies would be insufficient to address
joint ‘intended nationally determined environmental problems that result
and climate policy
contributions’, which will be renewed from diffuse pressures from various
and upgraded every 5 years. In rests on solid foundations. sources, such as the unsustainable use
addition to existing policies (Section of natural resources, environmental
2.3), the EU supports Member States impacts on human health through
efforts through its European strategic pollution or chemical contamination or
long‑term vision for a prosperous, goals and frameworks were set the loss of biodiversity. At a time when
modern, competitive and climate-neutral up. At first, as reflected in the first Europe had set itself the goal of creating
economy (EC, 2018c). The EU played an two EAPs (1972‑1981), European a single market (EEC, 1987) and when
instrumental role in making the Paris environmental policy consisted mainly the sustainable development concept
Agreement operational during COP 24 of regulatory interventions focusing began to be influential (UNCED, 1992),
(EC, 2018k). on specific issues such as water integrating environmental concerns into
quality, air quality, waste disposal other EU sectoral policies, also known
The 2030 agenda and the Paris or species protection. The adoption as environmental integration, became
Agreement have considerably of the Waste Framework Directive increasingly sought after (Table 2.1). A
raised the ambition of international (EEC, 1975), the Bathing Water Directive key mechanism for implementation in
cooperation on sustainable (EEC, 1976) or the Birds Directive the 5th EAP (1993‑2000), environmental
development. The world, not just (EEC, 1979) represents this approach, integration was formally established
Europe, has recognised the importance based on the premise that targeted as a requirement under the Treaty
and urgency of addressing a range of environmental legislation could lead of Amsterdam (EU, 1997) following a
persistent environmental and climate to significant improvements in a range European Council initiative (known as
challenges in a much more proactive of environmental issues with relatively the Cardiff process). The first five target
and coordinated way. Although direct, well-identified cause‑effect sectors were those contributing the
recognising and agreeing on long-term relationships. Since the 1970s, the most to environmental deterioration:
sustainability goals is essential, Parts 2 replication of this intervention model (1) industry; (2) energy; (3) transport;
and 3 will highlight the challenges led to a body of some 500 directives, (4) agriculture; and (5) tourism. This
faced by Europe in delivering on these regulations and decisions, which today shift in approach was accompanied
commitments, as well as the potential forms the most comprehensive set of by an increasing use of non-legislative
opportunities were its responses environmental standards in the world, instruments, such as financial
to the challenges to evolve more commonly known as the environmental instruments (e.g. investment funds),
fundamentally. acquis. As a result, today European economic instruments (i.e. market-based
environmental policy rests on solid instruments to ‘get the prices right’),
foundations (Box 2.1). horizontal approaches (e.g. information,
2.2 education, research), and more
Europe’s environmental and As documented by the five previous coordination with stakeholders.
climate policy SOERs from 1995 to 2015, this has led
over the years to a measurable and Environmental integration has been
2.2.1 substantial improvement in the level pursued to some extent through policy
The evolution of European of environmental protection in most frameworks such as the common
environmental and climate policy parts of Europe (EEA, 2015a). Notable agricultural policy (CAP), the common
achievements include a significant fisheries policy (CFP), the cohesion
While the 7th EAP 2050 vision, the reduction in emissions of pollutants to policy or the EU’s official development
2030 agenda and the Paris Agreement air, water and soil, the establishment of assistance, for example. Despite the
are today increasingly driving the world’s largest network of protected soundness of this approach, and
European environmental and climate areas under Natura 2000 (EEC, 1992), the although some progress has been made
policymaking, the last dates back far recovery of many species previously on (e.g. in the field of energy policy with
before these long-term sustainability the brink of extinction, the provision of the 2020 climate and energy package),

PART 1
BOX 2.1 Fundamentals of European environmental policy
E nvironmental policy is an area of

shared competence between the
EU and the Member States, with the
environmental legislation should be
adopted to prevent environmental
harm and not as a reaction to
In addition, environmental policy in the
EU is required to respect the Aarhus
Convention (UNECE, 1998), which
principle of subsidiarity determining environmental harm that has already guarantees the right of all European
the most effective level of action. occurred; citizens to access public environmental
The Treaties of the European Union information and to participate in
established that EU environment policy - the principle that environmental damage environmental decision-making as well
should contribute to pursuing the should as a priority be rectified at source, giving them access to justice within the
objectives of ‘preserving, protecting meaning that pollution, for instance, scope of environmental law.
and improving the quality of the should be addressed where it occurs, e.g.
environment, protecting human health, by setting emission limit values; In May 2016, the Commission launched
[promoting] prudent and rational the Environmental Implementation
utilisation of natural resources, [and] - the polluter pays principle, stating Review, a 2-year cycle of analysis and
promoting measures at international that a company causing environmental dialogue with Member States to improve
level […] and […] combating climate damage is to be held financially liable the implementation of existing EU
change’ (EU, 2007). for it and must take the necessary environmental policy and legislation
preventive or remedial action; this (EC, 2017a, 2019a).
EU environmental policy rests on four applies to operators of certain activities,
principles, as enshrined in the Treaties such as transporting dangerous While EU policy frameworks do not
(EU, 2007): substances or managing extractive necessarily directly apply to the
waste (EU, 2004). non-EU member countries of the
- the precautionary principle, which is a European Environment Agency (Iceland,
risk management approach, ‘whereby if EU environmental regulation also Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland,
there is the possibility that a given policy ensures that certain projects likely Turkey) or the cooperating countries
or action might cause harm to the public to have significant effects on the (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
or the environment, and if there is still environment, e.g. the construction of a Kosovo under United Nations Security
no scientific consensus on the issue, the motorway or an airport, are subject to Council Resolution 1244/99, Montenegro,
policy or action in question should not an environmental impact assessment North Macedonia, and Serbia), many
be pursued’ (EU, 2018c); (EIA). Equally, a range of public of these countries have the same or
plans and programmes are subject similar environmental and climate policy
- the principle that preventive action to a similar process called strategic objectives, and they are included in the
should be taken, which means that environmental assessment (SEA). assessment as far as possible. ■
TABLE 2.1 The changing understanding of environmental challenges and the evolution of approaches to policy
and assessment
Characterisation Key features In policy Policy approaches Assessment approaches and

of key challenges since (examples) tools (examples)
Specific Linear cause-effect, 1970s Targeted policies and single-use Data sets, indicators
point source, local instruments
Diffuse Cumulative causes 1990s Policy integration, market-based Data sets, indicators, environmental
instruments, raising public awareness accounts, outlooks
Systemic Systemic causes 2010s Policy coherence, systemic focus Indicators, accounts, practice-based
(e.g. mobility system), long-term and knowledge, systems assessment,
multidimensional goals (e.g. SDGs) stakeholder participation, foresight
Source: EEA.

PART 1
BOX 2.2 The EU’s Seventh Environment Action Programme
S ince 1973, the European Commission

has issued multiannual environment
action programmes (EAPs) setting out
2. to turn the EU into a
resource‑efficient, green and
competitive low-carbon economy;
6. more and wiser investment in
environmental and climate policy;
forthcoming legislative proposals and 7. full integration of environmental

goals for EU environment policy. In 2013, 3. to safeguard the EU’s citizens from requirements and considerations into
environment-related pressures and other policies.
the Council and the European Parliament
risks to their health and well-being.
adopted the 7th EAP for the period
Two further priority objectives focus
up to 2020, under the title ‘Living well, Four priority objectives create an on meeting local, regional and global
within the limits of our planet’. Building enabling framework to help Europe challenges:
on a number of strategic initiatives, the deliver on these goals:
programme identified three key thematic 8. to make the EU’s cities more
objectives: 4. better implementation of sustainable;
legislation;
1. to protect, conserve and 9. to help the EU address international
enhance the EU’s natural capital; 5. better information by improving the environmental and climate challenges
knowledge base; more effectively. ■
Source: Seventh Environment Action Programme (EU, 2013a).
this report indicates that this has led to discussed in the chapters in Part 2).
mixed results, as have previous SOERs. This framework builds on a number
Either environmental considerations of strategic initiatives, directives and
have been insufficiently integrated funding instruments covering almost all
into sectoral policies (e.g. for lack of environmental thematic areas.
incentives) or policy instruments have Environmental integration
failed to deliver significant effects up to into EU policy has had Among them, the EU biodiversity
the scale and urgency of the challenges strategy to 2020 aims, through a
mixed results.
(Chapter 13). set of six targets and 20 actions, to
‘[halt] the loss of biodiversity and the
Since the late 1990s, increased degradation of ecosystem services in
attention has been paid to better the EU by 2020, and [restore] them
understanding the systemic 2.2.2 in so far as feasible, while stepping
interlinkages between the environment, The current and developing EU up the EU contribution to averting
society and the economy and environmental and climate policy global biodiversity loss’ (EC, 2011b).
understanding how policies could landscape The targets are aligned with the
respond to them. This was reflected internationally agreed Aichi biodiversity
in the increasing orientation of the Today, the 7th EAP (2014-2020) plays targets of the Convention on Biological
6th and 7th EAPs (2002-2020) towards a central role and offers a coherent Diversity (CBD, 2013). For the marine
sustainability and in the search for framework for EU environmental environment, the ecosystem-based
more coherence among EU policies. policies. The programme specifies an approach to management is further
This need has been reinforced with ambitious vision for 2050 (Section 2.1), applied through the integrated
the recognition of the importance of sets out nine priority objectives to maritime policy, the CFP and the
climate change, which became the move towards this vision (Box 2.2) Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
subject of a specific goal of the EU with and defines a number of specific A recent development in the field of
the Treaty of Lisbon (EU, 2007). targets to be achieved by 2020 (as nature and biodiversity is the adoption

PART 1
of the EU’s first-ever initiative on (2) the circular economy; and (3) the
pollinators to address their decline in bioeconomy.
Europe and worldwide.
In line with the Paris Agreement, the EU
As regards environment and health, has set for itself ambitious climate- and
one of the purposes of the REACH The 7th EAP establishes a energy-related targets in order to move
Regulation is to ensure a high level of coherent policy framework for towards a low-carbon economy by 2050.
protection of human health and the The long-term objective proposed by the
EU environmental policies.
environment, in particular through European Commission is to achieve a
better and earlier identification of reduction in GHG emissions of 80-95 %
the intrinsic properties of chemical by 2050 compared with 1990 levels
substances (EU, 2013e). This is done (EC, 2011a). In 2018, the European
through the registration, evaluation, Other funding instruments support Commission raised its ambition with the
authorisation and restriction of the implementation of European publication of the European strategic
chemicals (REACH), and the Regulation’s environmental and climate policy. long-term vision for a prosperous,
provisions, which are underpinned by The LIFE programme is the EU’s modern, competitive and climate‑neutral
the precautionary principle. financial instrument supporting economy for 2050, which shows how
environmental, nature conservation Europe could lead the way to climate
Environmental integration is still and climate action projects throughout neutrality while ensuring a socially just
being pursued. For example in the the EU (EU, 2013c). Since 1992, the transition (EC, 2018c). Building on the
agricultural sector, which is responsible LIFE programme has co-financed ‘20-20-20 targets’ set for 2020, the EU
for many environmental pressures almost 5 000 small-scale projects has committed, through its 2030 climate
(Chapter 13), environmental and developing innovative approaches and energy framework, to reduce
climate considerations have been for environment and climate action. GHG emissions to at least 40 % below
increasingly embedded within the For the period 2014‑2020, the LIFE 1990 levels by 2030, while improving
CAP. For the period 2014-2020, programme contributes approximately energy efficiency by at least 32.5 % and
this is being implemented through EUR 3.4 billion (EC, 2016c). EU funding increasing the share of energy from
cross‑compliance conditions for instruments such as the European renewable sources to at least 32 % of
obtaining full direct payments, Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and final consumption (European Council,
greening measures to make farmers the Cohesion Fund provide funding 2014; EU, 2018a, 2018b).
deliver environmental and climate for the protection of the environment,
benefits beyond cross‑compliance although these instruments are EU action relies on the EU Emissions
and voluntary commitments by primarily focused on other policy Trading System (ETS), a ‘cap and trade’
farmers to get additional payments priorities. The European Maritime and mechanism for GHG emissions from
under agri‑environment schemes Fisheries Fund has a strong focus on nearly 11 000 installations (factories,
(EU, 2013d, 2013e). CAP payments for sustainable fish stocks, fuel-efficient power stations, etc.) across the EU, on
agricultural development constitute fishing and reduced environmental the Effort Sharing Regulation (EU, 2018e),
37.8 % of the EU overall budget in impacts, among other priorities. which sets binding annual targets for
the multiannual financial framework reducing GHG emissions for 2030 for
for 2014-2020 (EC, 2013). Under its More recently, the ambition of the each Member State in sectors not
Pillar 2, supporting rural development 7th EAP has been supported by a range covered by the ETS (e.g. road transport,
programmes, Member States have of policy packages, which are more waste, agriculture and buildings), and
to spend at least 30 % of the related integrated at the macro-economic on the LULUCF Regulation (EU, 2018d)
budget on measures related to the level and attempt to better address committing Member States to ensure
environment and climate change the long‑term, systemic interlinkages that GHG emissions from land use, land
mitigation. This represents almost 1 % between the environment, society use change and forestry (LULUCF) are
of the EU budget, or EUR 25 billion for and the economy. In particular, since offset by at least an equivalent removal
the period 2014‑2020, making it a very the publication of the previous SOER, of CO2 from the atmosphere in the
important funding instrument, which significant policy developments have period 2021-2030. These commitments
may potentially influence the trends arisen around three frameworks highly are to be considered within the broader
in environmental pressures from relevant for the environment and perspective of the Energy Union
agriculture (Chapter 13). climate: (1) the low-carbon economy; Strategy (EC, 2015b), which addresses

PART 1
© Bojan Bencec, WaterPIX/EEA

PART 1
environmental and climate dimensions Europe, while paying more attention to

along with issues of security, affordability, Major policy developments ecological limitations (EC, 2018b).
market integration, and research,
have occurred around the
innovation and competitiveness. Overall, the EU environmental and
The Regulation on the Governance of frameworks of the low‑carbon climate policy landscape aims to address
the Energy Union and Climate Action economy, the circular the short-, medium- and long‑term
establishes a unique framework for economy and the bioeconomy. time horizons through a range of
cooperation between Member States policies, strategies and instruments that
and the EU, building on integrated increasingly connect the environmental,
national energy and climate plans, EU social and economic dimensions of
and national long-term strategies, and sustainability (Figure 2.2). However,
integrated reporting, monitoring and data measures in its 2018 circular economy the ambition of the 7th EAP vision and
publication (EU, 2018f). In addition, these package, including a strategy for frameworks such as the low-carbon
mitigation efforts are complemented plastics that sets the goal that ‘by 2030, economy, the circular economy and
by the EU adaptation strategy on all plastics packaging will have to be the bioeconomy is such that it implies
climate change (EC, 2013), which aims reusable or recyclable in an economically fundamental societal transitions to
to make Europe more climate resilient viable manner’, and sets up a monitoring transform key production-consumption
by enhancing the preparedness and framework to record progress towards systems (Part 3). While policy
capacity to respond to the impacts of the circular economy at EU and national interventions can trigger the change
climate change (Chapter 7) and which levels (EC, 2018a, 2018b). needed, such ambition will ineluctably
has recently been evaluated positively question our collective ways of living
(EC, 2018i). The online European While not being an environmental policy and thinking. One positive sign is the
Climate Adaptation Platform, Climate- per se, a third framework of particular increasing awareness and concern
ADAPT, plays a central role in improving relevance to the environment and around environmental and climate
informed decision‑making for climate climate has gained momentum during challenges across society.
change adaptation across Europe the last decade. The EC (2012) defines
(EEA and EC, 2019). the bioeconomy as ‘the production of
renewable biological resources and 2.3
The concept of a circular economy has the conversion of these resources The context of Europe’s
recently gained traction in European and waste streams into value added governance
policymaking as a solutions-oriented products, such as food, feed, bio-based
perspective for achieving economic products and bioenergy’ and states that 2.3.1
development within increasing it aims to optimise the use of biological Environmental and climate
environmental constraints (EEA, 2016). resources for ensuring food security, mainstreaming in EU institutions
A circular economy aims to maximise managing natural resources sustainably,
the value and use of all materials and reducing dependence on non-renewable In addition to adopting policies, the
products, reducing the dependency resources, mitigating and adapting to EU institutions have started to embed
on primary raw GHG emissions, thus climate change, and creating jobs and environmental and climate dimensions
contributing to moving towards a maintaining European competitiveness. in a number of ways, which reflects an
low‑carbon economy. In 2015, the The EU launched its bioeconomy increasing recognition of sustainability
European Commission adopted its strategy in 2012 to stimulate knowledge challenges. For instance, the multiannual
circular economy package, which development, research and innovation, financial framework, the EU’s budget for
includes an EU action plan for the bring together stakeholders, create 2014-2020, had the objective of ensuring
circular economy (EC, 2015a), setting markets, and streamline existing policy that at least 20 % of the EU’s budget is
out a number of initiatives aiming at approaches in this area (e.g. the CAP, allocated to climate‑related expenditure
closing the loop of product life cycles, the CFP, Horizon 2020, the Blue Growth (EU and Euratom, 2013). Based on the
primarily through greater recycling. initiative). Building on the conclusions current trend, climate-related spending
The package also led to the revision of the 2017 review (EC, 2017b), the 2018 is projected to amount to EUR 200
of six waste directives with new waste update of the bioeconomy strategy billion or 19.3 % of the EU’s operational
management targets regarding recycling aims to accelerate the development spending commitments (EC, 2018j),
and preparing for reuse and landfilling of a sustainable circular bioeconomy, and climate change adaptation and
(Chapter 9). In 2018, the European through strengthening, scaling up and mitigation have been integrated into
Commission adopted complementary spreading bio-based innovations across all major EU spending programmes.

PART 1
FIGURE 2.2 The emerging EU environmental and climate policy landscape
SUSTAINABILITY
2050
Long-term EU visions and
targets with a societal
transition perspective
7th EAP Vision
7th EAP Low-Carbon Economy
Core Environmental Directives Climate Neutrality Strategy
2020 Climate & Energy Package 2030 Sustainable Circular Bioeconomy
Climate Adaptation Strategy Emerging EU policy landscape Biodiversity Strategy
Resource Efficiency Roadmap
Biodiversity Strategy Circular Economy
2030 Climate & Energy Framework
Established EU policies Energy Union
Sustainable Development Goals
2020
TIME
Source: EEA.
It remains difficult to monitor the sustainability considerations into its

EU’s budget contribution to other financial policy framework, in particular
environmental areas due to its degree within the context of the Capital Markets
of dispersion. It is, however, estimated Union. Indeed, it estimated that an
that, for example, 8 % will be allocated investment gap of EUR 180 billion per
to protect biodiversity over the period The ambitious EU vision year needs to be filled to achieve the
2014-2020 (EC, 2018j). requires fundamental societal EU’s 2030 targets set out in the Paris
Agreement (EC, 2017d). Following the
EU regional policy, which is the EU’s
transitions. recommendations of a high-level expert
main investment policy with a budget group, the Commission adopted an
of EUR 351.8 billion for the period action plan on sustainable finance in
2014‑2020, contributes to improving March 2018, which was followed by
the environment and moving towards the first set of measures to facilitate
a low‑carbon economy in Europe. number of societal challenges highly sustainable investments (EC, 2018d).
For instance, EUR 40 billion from the related to the environment (EU, 2013b).
ERDF and the Cohesion Fund are It has also established climate action An initiative is also ongoing to ‘green’
to be invested in the transition to a and sustainable development as the European semester. The European
low‑carbon economy in the period cross‑cutting objectives and set expected semester is a mechanism to improve
2014‑2020, twice the amount spent expenditure levels of at least 35 % for the coordination of economic and
in the period 2007-2013. From a climate action and at least 60 % for budgetary policies in EU Member
research and innovation perspective, sustainable development. States. While it was created with the
Horizon 2020 reserves a significant part aim of monitoring the implementation
of its EUR 77 billion of funding available Besides, the European Commission is of the Europe 2020 strategy (EC, 2010),
for the 2014-2020 period to tackle a increasingly looking at how to integrate which includes economic, social and

PART 1
environmental targets, the semester Award, which recognise and reward

has mainly focused on macro-economic European citizens are highly efforts to improve the environment, the
aspects, relying in particular on the economy and the quality of life in cities
supportive of environmental
GDP (gross domestic product) indicator. (EC, 2018g).
Following the integration of key social protection and climate action.
and employment indicators in the Companies are also increasingly
semester scoreboard, the ambition is concerned about environmental
now to embed environmental indicators and climate challenges, because the
to assess the sustainability of the of citizens and local stakeholders in latter can potentially disrupt their
progress made. supporting their actions. supply and value chains (e.g. through
climate-related weather events), their
The EU has also set in motion It is increasingly recognised that ‘cities profit margins can increase thanks
Copernicus, its Earth observation are key players in implementing the to resource and energy efficiency,
programme (EC, 2017d). With seven EU’s goals in terms of a low-carbon eco-innovation creates new markets
dedicated satellites in orbit (so far), economy … and resource efficiency. or they are simply pushed to be
complemented by contributing missions, They are crucial in improving waste more environmentally‑friendly by
in situ sensors, numerical models and management, public transport, water their customers. Several approaches
related services, it aims to provide management and, through integrated supported by the European Commission
full, free and open data daily to public urban planning, the efficient use of help companies that are willing to
and private users to allow a better land.’ (EEA, 2015b). Acknowledging this further integrate the environmental
understanding of and response to key role, the EU is supporting a range dimension into their business models.
environmental and climate challenges. of initiatives fostering networking of For instance, the EU Eco-Management
This includes monitoring of the cities and local authorities, in line with and Audit Scheme (EMAS) is a
atmosphere, the marine environment, the eighth objective of the 7th EAP. management instrument for European
land use and climate change. Ten years after its launch in 2008, companies and other organisations
the Covenant of Mayors for Climate to evaluate, report and improve their
& Energy brings together more than environmental performance. As of
2.3.2 7 700 local and regional authorities April 2018, the EMAS Network counted
Environmental and climate action representing more than 250 million 3 866 organisations and 9 004 sites
across scales of governance citizens across Europe to help meet (EC, 2018f). Through green public
the EU climate and energy objectives procurement, Europe’s public authorities
Environmental and climate action in the (Covenant of Mayors, 2019). The can also strengthen the demand for
EU is not limited to the interventions initiative was embedded in the field more sustainable goods and services,
of EU institutions and Member of climate change adaptation with the and therefore stimulate eco-innovation
States. The scale of environmental setting up of Mayors Adapt, a subset (EC, 2019b). Besides, corporate social
and climate challenges calls for a of the Covenant of Mayors initiative, to responsibility, which refers to companies
whole-of-society approach in which engage cities in taking action to adapt taking responsibility for their impact
all citizens and scales of governance to climate change (Mayors Adapt, 2015). on society, also involves meeting
across the EU have a role to play environmental product requirements
(EEA and Eionet, 2016). As annual Other urban initiatives supported by (EC, 2018e). The UN Global Compact,
Eurobarometer surveys show, support the EU are the urban agenda for the EU, an initiative asking business to actively
for environmental protection from which includes the aim of strengthening address environmental risks and
European citizens has remained high the resilience of urban settings through opportunities, has a strong foothold in
across all Member States over the preventing disaster and climate-related Europe where it has the largest total
years, despite the socio-economic risks, in line with the UN new urban number of participants compared with
impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, agenda (EU, 2016); the Reference other regions (UN Global Compact,
and nearly 9 out of 10 Europeans Framework for European Sustainable 2018). Businesses, industries and
(87 %) agree that they can play a Cities, which seeks to give all European their representatives are also key
role in protecting the environment cities practical support and a network to stakeholders within the Commission‑led
(EC, 2017c). This allows more share information on moving towards multi-stakeholder platform on the
proactive environmental and climate sustainable urban development (RFSC, SDGs, the Circular Economy Stakeholder
interventions by EU institutions and 2018); and the European Green Capital Platform, or the Bioeconomy
Member States and closer engagement Award and European Green Leaf Stakeholders Panel.

2
PART 2
Environment
and climate
trends
3
4 par A
PART 2
Introduction
Part 2, ‘Environment and climate trends’, combination of available evidence and • The assessment of the robustness
provides an overview of the state of and expert judgement, including inputs from of the evidence base also identifies key
outlook for the European environment. stakeholders during their development. gaps and indicates the degree of expert
It assesses progress towards achieving More specifically: judgement used.
established European environment
and climate policy goals and focuses • The assessment of trends is based The summary assessment tables use a
primarily on the 2020-2030 time frame. on available indicators and other range of colour coding and symbols (see
Ten environmental themes are assessed information as observed over the past below) and contain short explanatory
(Chapters 3-12), complemented by a 10-15 years. texts justifying the allocation of the colour
concise assessment of environmental codes and symbols.
pressures and sectors (Chapter 13). • The assessment of outlooks is
Chapter 14 builds on these assessments based on modelled estimates of Each chapter in Part 2 contains a range
to provide an integrated picture of the future developments, where available, of summary assessment tables by
European environment’s state, trends expected developments in drivers of theme, for example the impacts of air
and outlook in relation to the priority change, and expert consideration of the pollution on human health. These are
objectives of the Seventh Environment effects of policies currently in place. then compiled into a headline table
Action Programme (7th EAP). presented at the beginning of each
• The assessment of the prospects chapter, along with the key messages.
Summary assessments are used of meeting selected policy targets and Chapter 14 contains an overall summary
throughout Part 2 to present the objectives is based on distance to target assessment table incorporating these
content in a systematic, concise and assessments where available, and expert and structured in accordance with the
accessible way. These are based on a judgement. priority objectives of the 7th EAP.
Indicative assessment of past trends (10-15 years) Indicative assessment of prospects of meeting selected policy
and outlook to 2030 objectives/targets
Improving trends/developments dominate Year  Largely on track
Trends/developments show a mixed picture Year  Partially on track
Deteriorating trends/developments dominate Year  Largely not on track
Note: The year for the objectives/targets does not indicate the exact target year but the time frame of the objectives/targets.
SOER 2020/Introduction Part 2 71

03.
Biodiversity
and nature
72
© Simona Ilascu, Environment & Me/EEA
73
SOER 2020/Introduction Part 2
PART 2
Key messages
• Biodiversity and nature sustain • There has been progress in some • The broad framework of EU
life on Earth, delivering numerous areas, such as the designation of biodiversity policy remains highly
essential ecosystem services. They protected areas: the EU Natura 2000 relevant and is fit for purpose but the
are a vital element of our cultural network now covers 18 % of the EU’s challenge is urgent and interlinked
heritage and treasured for their land area and almost 9 % of marine with the climate crisis. Targets will
recreational, spiritual and aesthetic waters, making it the world’s largest not be met without more effective
values. As a result, biodiversity loss network of protected areas. implementation and funding of
has fundamental consequences for our existing measures in all European
society, economy and for human health • Europe’s biodiversity and environmental policies, as well as
and well-being. ecosystems face cumulative pressures greater policy coherence with respect
from land use change, natural resource to biodiversity in agricultural and other
• Despite ambitious targets, Europe extraction, pollution, climate change sectoral policies. The wider application
continues to lose biodiversity at and invasive alien species. These have of ecosystem-based and adaptive
an alarming rate and many agreed a severe impact on ecosystem services management in combination with
policy targets will not be achieved. — nature’s benefits to people — as increased public awareness of society’s
Assessments of species and habitats illustrated by the recent alarming loss dependency on biodiversity and nature
protected under the Habitats Directive of insects, especially pollinators. are important steps forward.
show predominantly unfavourable
conservation status at 60 % for species
and 77 % for habitats. Biodiversity loss
is not confined to rare or threatened
species. Long-term monitoring shows
a continuing downward trend in
populations of common birds and
butterflies, with the most pronounced
declines in farmland birds (32 %) and
grassland butterflies (39 %).
Thematic summary assessment

objectives/targets
Past trends (10-15 years) Outlook to 2030 2020
Terrestrial protected areas Improving trends Developments show

 Largely on track
dominate a mixed picture
EU protected species and habitats Trends show a mixed Developments show

 Not on track
picture a mixed picture
Common species (birds and butterflies) Deteriorating trends Deteriorating

 Not on track
dominate developments dominate
Ecosystem condition and services Deteriorating trends Developments show

 Not on track
Note: For the methodology of the summary assessment table, see the introduction to Part 2. The justification for the colour coding is
explained in Section 3.3, Key trends and outlooks (Tables 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 and 3.5).
74 SOER 2020/Introduction Part 2

PART 2
03.
Biodiversity and nature
3.1 security of billions of people has been

Scope of the theme growing at European and global level
over several decades and is exemplified
Biodiversity, or biological diversity, is the by the recent IPBES report (IPBES, 2019)
variety of life on Earth, within species, (Chapter 1). The conclusion is that
between species and of ecosystems The impact of Europe’s destruction and loss of biodiversity
(CBD, 1992). Biodiversity conservation is and nature is as catastrophic as
alarming rate of biodiversity
linked to its intrinsic value as well as the climate change.
recognition that biodiversity and nature
loss is as catastrophic
are a part of the natural capital (EC, 2011; as climate change.
EU, 2013) delivering numerous ecosystem 3.2
services — or nature’s contributions to Policy landscape
people (IPBES, 2018). They are many
and varied and include provision of The targets and commitments within
food, pollination, carbon sequestration, the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020
mitigation of natural disasters, recreation published by the Intergovernmental and the key role played by the nature
and spiritual values, among many others Science‑Policy Platform on Biodiversity directives in their delivery provide a
(EU, 2013; EC, 2015; IPBES, 2018). and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, 2018) means for meeting the requirements set
are land use change, including habitat by a range of international conventions
Europe’s biodiversity has been shaped loss, fragmentation and degradation, and agreements, e.g. the Convention
by human activity more than on any as well as climate change, extraction of on Biological Diversity, or CBD
other continent and is continually natural resources, pollution and invasive (CBD, 1992), and the Bern Convention
under pressure as a result of our use alien species. (Council of Europe, 1979). The strategy
of natural capital driven by human to 2020 reflects the commitments
production and consumption (Chapter 1). The evidence of the negative impacts taken by the EU in 2010 at global level
The main drivers of biodiversity loss of biodiversity loss and the threats that in the scope of the strategic plan for
identified by the regional assessment unsustainable exploitation of our natural biodiversity 2011‑2020, including 20 Aichi
report for Europe and Central Asia world poses for the food and water biodiversity targets.
SOER 2020/Biodiversity and nature 75

PART 2
The 2020 headline target is ‘Halting the reserves, Ramsar and UNESCO World
loss of biodiversity and the degradation Heritage sites. The main goal of the
of ecosystem services and restoring Natura 2000 network is to safeguard
them in so far as feasible, while Europe’s most valuable and threatened
stepping up Europe’s contribution species and habitats, listed under the
to averting global biodiversity loss’. Biodiversity loss has significant Birds and Habitats Directives. Member
This headline target is broken down States have to design and implement
environmental, economic and
into six specific targets that address a the necessary conservation measures
number of critical policy areas including
social consequences. to protect and manage identified sites:
protecting (and restoring) biodiversity Special Areas of Conservation (SACs)
and ecosystem services and greater under the Habitats Directive and
use of green infrastructure; sectors Special Protection Areas (SPAs) under
(agriculture, forestry, fisheries); invasive 3.3 the Birds Directive.
alien species; and EU impacts on global Key trends and outlooks
biodiversity. The Seventh Environment Measuring progress in relation to
Action Programme (7th EAP) fully 3.3.1 designation and management of
embraces the objectives of the EU Terrestrial protected areas Natura 2000 sites is a central part
biodiversity strategy to 2020 and its ►See Table 3.2 of the EU 2020 biodiversity strategy
2050 vision, and it states that, by headline target and 2050 vision as
2020, the loss of biodiversity and the Protected areas benefit species, well as the global Aichi biodiversity
degradation of ecosystem services ecosystems and the environment target 11, which aims to conserve at
should be halted and that by 2050 overall. They provide significant least 17 % of terrestrial and inland
biodiversity is protected, valued and economic and societal benefits, including water areas by 2020 and ensure that
restored in ways that enhance our employment opportunities. In particular, those areas are well connected and
society’s resilience. they contribute to people’s health efficiently managed. Natura 2000 has
and well-being and have significant stimulated a remarkable increase
Other sectoral and territorial policies cultural value. in the area protected in Europe,
also have an important impact, and presently the network covers
e.g. Water Framework Directive, Floods Europe’s protected areas are diverse 18% of the 28 Member States’
Directive, Marine Strategy Framework in character, varying in size, aim and (EU‑28’s) terrestrial area, with
Directive, common fisheries policy (CFP), management approach. They are large around 28 000 sites (EEA, 2018c).
common agricultural policy (CAP), in number but relatively small in size. Together with marine Natura 2000
National Emission Ceilings Directive, Approximately 93 % of sites are less sites, the network encompasses nine
climate change-related policies, Europe’s than 1 000 ha and 78 % are less than terrestrial biogeographical regions
bioeconomy strategy and cohesion 100 ha (EEA, 2018b). This reflects the and five marine regions (Figure 3.1)
policy (Chapters 4-8 and 13). These high pressure on land use, arising (EEA, 2018c).
encompass the marine and freshwater from agriculture, transport and urban
environments as well as terrestrial areas, development. Large-scale nature There are various benefits stemming
and agricultural policy has proved to be reserves occur mostly in countries from Natura 2000. Common
particularly influential in shaping our with low population densities, such as methodology and criteria adopted
European landscapes and the nature Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden across the EU for the establishment
they contain. (EEA, 2018b). of sites ensure better ecological
coherence than if the network were
Biodiversity and ecosystem services The two most important European organised within each Member State
are key elements of the 2030 agenda networks of protected areas are Natura only. This helps, for example, migratory
for sustainable development and 2000 in the EU Member States and species and designation of sites across
several of the Sustainable Development the Emerald network outside the EU, national borders. While the Natura
Goals (SDGs), whereby, in addition to established under the Bern Convention 2000 network targets particular species
‘protecting the planet’ they underpin (Council of Europe, 1979). There are and habitats, other species also benefit
sustainable livelihoods and futures. also other important international from the establishment of sites, in
Table 3.1 presents a selected set of designations, such as UNESCO (United the so-called ‘umbrella effect’ (van der
relevant key policy objectives and targets Nations Educational, Scientific and Sluis et al., 2016). It is estimated that
that are addressed in this chapter. Cultural Organization) biosphere there are between 1.2 and 2.2 billion
76 SOER 2020/Biodiversity and nature

PART 2
TABLE 3.1 Overview of selected policy objectives and targets
Policy objectives and targets Sources Target year Agreement
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides 2050 vision of the EU biodiversity 2050 Non-binding commitment
— its natural capital — are protected, valued and strategy to 2020
appropriately restored for their intrinsic value and
essential contribution to human well-being and
economic prosperity, and so that catastrophic changes
caused by the loss of biodiversity are avoided
Protect species and habitats under the nature directives Birds Directive, Habitats Directive 2020 Legally binding and non-
(EU, national); EU biodiversity strategy binding commitments
to 2020, Target 1; Action plan for nature,
people and the economy
Maintain and restore ecosystems and their services EU biodiversity strategy to 2020, 2020 Non-binding commitment
Target 2; 7th EAP; SDG 15
Achieve more sustainable agriculture and forestry EU biodiversity strategy to 2020, 2020 Non-binding commitment
Target 3; 7th EAP
Make fishing more sustainable and seas healthier EU biodiversity strategy to 2020, 2020 Non-binding commitment
Target 5; 7th EAP;
Combat invasive alien species Regulation on invasive alien species; 2020 Legally binding
EU biodiversity strategy to 2020,
Targets 4, 5 and 6; 7th EAP
Help stop the loss of global biodiversity EU biodiversity strategy to 2020, 2020 Non-binding commitment
Target 6; 7th EAP
Improve knowledge of pollinator decline, its causes and EU pollinators initiative 2020 Non-binding commitment
consequences; tackle the causes of pollinator decline;
raise awareness, engage society at large and promote
collaboration
Integrate green infrastructure (GI) into key policy Green infrastructure — Enhancing 2020 Non-binding commitment
areas, improving the knowledge base and encouraging Europe’s natural capital (GI strategy)
innovation in relation to GI, improving access to finance
including supporting EU-level GI projects.
visitor days to Natura 2000 sites 40 % of the Natura 2000 total area is in particular in areas with natural
each year, generating recreational farmland, and forests make up almost constraints. Natural, old-growth forests
benefits worth between EUR 5 and 50 %. The main objectives within are also subject to management
9 billion per year (Brink et al., 2013). Natura 2000 sites are to avoid activities intensification and their unique
The overall economic benefits of the that could seriously disturb the species biodiversity and structural features
Natura 2000 network stemming from or damage the habitats for which the are irreversibly lost. Management
the provision of various ecosystem site is designated and to take positive of the sites is therefore a decisive
services have been estimated to be in measures, if necessary, to maintain factor in achieving the conservation
the order of EUR 200 to 300 billion/year and restore these habitats and species aims; however, we currently lack
(Brink et al., 2013). to improve conservation. While this comprehensive information on how
approach encourages sustainable efficiently these sites are managed.
An important characteristic is that management, the network can still be Integration of Natura 2000 objectives
Natura 2000 sites are not necessarily subject to significant pressures, such into spatial planning is crucial. In
pristine areas, stripped of human as the intensification or abandonment particular, maintaining or improving
impact. Their aim is not to exclude of traditional, extensive farming connectivity between sites is of utmost
economic activity and, in fact, around practices or even land abandonment, importance. The Joint Research Centre

PART 2
FIGURE 3.1 Area of Natura 2000 sites designated under the EU Habitats and Birds Directives in 2017
Area in km2
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
14
15
16
17
10
11
12
13
06
07
08
09
03
04
05
99
00
01
02
95
96
97
98
93
94
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
Natura 2000 SCI SPA
Note: The Natura 2000 network is composed of SPAs and SCIs. SPAs are Special Protection Areas, designated under the Birds Directive.
SCIs include sites and proposed Sites of Community Importance and Special Areas of Conservation, designated under the Habitats
Directive. Many sites are designated under both directives (as both an SCI and an SPA). The calculation of the Natura 2000 area taking
this overlap into account is available only from 2011 onwards.
Source: EEA (2018c).
of the European Commission (JRC) has and since December 2017 two European
created an indicator of protected area The Natura 2000 network countries have officially adopted Emerald
connectivity (ProtConn) (JRC, 2019b) sites on their territories: Norway and
covers 18 % of the EU’s land
that quantifies how well networks of Switzerland.
protected areas are designed to support
area, with around 28 000 sites.
connectivity and is based on assumed At the end of 2017, 14 Member States
species distances between protected had designated more than 17 % of their
areas (Saura et al., 2018). In the EU, the land area as Natura 2000 sites: Bulgaria,
indicator shows an average value of The Emerald network is an ecological Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary,
more than 18 % and therefore meets the network of areas of special conservation Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal,
connectivity element of Aichi biodiversity interest set up by the Contracting Parties Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
target 11. The ProtConn value varies, to the Bern Convention. It is conceptually (EEA, 2018c). The degree of overlap
however, throughout Europe: it is similar to Natura 2000, but it incorporates between Natura 2000 and national
lowest in the Netherlands (6.7 %), varies a wider group of countries. As the EU is designations illustrates the extent to
between 8 and 12 % in Finland, Ireland, a signatory to the Bern Convention, the which countries have made use of their
Italy, Sweden and the Baltic States and Natura 2000 network is considered the nationally designated areas to underpin
is highest in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, EU Member States’ contribution to the Natura 2000 and to what extent Natura
Germany, Poland and Slovenia (25 % Emerald network. Outside the EU, the 2000 sites extend beyond national
or more) (Saura et al., 2018). Emerald network is still in the early stages, systems (EEA, 2018b) (Figure 3.2).

PART 2
FIGURE 3.2 Country comparison — share of country designated as terrestrial protected area and the overlap
between Natura 2000 or Emerald sites and national designations
% terrestrial area
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
us tia and ni
a
Sw d
Ire n
nd
he nd
D nds
th k
N ia
ay
Cz ly
Fr ia
un e
Po ry
m l
Be ia
g
Ki ria
ov e
m ia
pr
Es ia
ia
G a
oa
Ro ga
ve
an
LI ar
ur
ni
ec
n
ai
Ita
t
n
an
xe gar
tv
ak
ga
iu
do
an
w
al
Cy Po
ed
st
la
la
Cr
u
ua
to
ec
Sp
m
bo
re
o
m
rla
La
N inl
lg
or
Sl
M
rt
er
te Au
ng
l
en
Bu
er
F
itz
Sl
H
G
Sw
et
Lu
ni
U
N2000/Emerald only Overlap between N2000/Emerald and CDDA CDDA only
Note: A ‘nationally designated protected area’ (CDDA) is an area protected by national legislation. If a country has included sites designated
under international agreements such as the EU Birds and Habitats Directives, or the Bern or Ramsar Conventions in its legislation, the
corresponding protected sites, such as the Natura 2000 (N2000), Emerald or Ramsar sites, of this country are included in the CDDA.
Source: EEA (2018b).
TABLE 3.2 Summary assessment — terrestrial protected areas
Past trends and outlook
Past trends There has been a steady increase in the cumulative area of the Natura 2000 network in EU Member States in
(10-15 years) the last 10 years, along with consistent growth in protected areas in all European countries.
Outlook to 2030 Designation of protected areas is not in itself a guarantee of effective biodiversity protection. Establishing
or fully implementing conservation measures and management plans to achieve effectively managed,
ecologically representative and well-connected systems of protected areas are crucially important and remain
a challenge up to 2030.
Prospects of meeting policy objectives/targets
2020 The global Aichi biodiversity target 11 of 17 % of terrestrial areas conserved has been reached in Europe. In
 the EU, the Natura 2000 network already covers 18 % of the land area.
Robustness Long-term data on the coverage of nationally designated protected areas in the EEA member countries and
candidate countries (EEA-39) and consistent data on the Natura 2000 area are available. Information is lacking
on the effectiveness of conservation measures in Europe’s protected areas and how well biodiversity is
protected there. The available outlook information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on
expert judgement.

PART 2
FIGURE 3.3 Trends in conservation status of assessed non-bird species at EU level
Other invertebrates (14)
Fish (304)
Molluscs (99)
Non-vascular plants (99)
Arthropods (415)
Mammals (495)
Reptiles (215)
Amphibians (182)
Vascular plants (842)
0% 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 %
Favourable Unfavourable-unknown trend Unfavourable-stable
Unfavourable-improving Unknown Unfavourable-deteriorating
Note: These are species from the Habitats Directive. The number of assessments is indicated in parenthesis. The total number of
assessments is 2 665.
Source: EEA (2016e), based on conservation status of habitat types and species reporting (Article 17, Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC).
There are different patterns among Natura 2000 sites, along with maintaining
countries and the differences in Designation as a protected or extending nationally designated sites,
approaches reflect the diversity of benefits biodiversity and ecosystems and
area is not a guarantee
historical, geographical, administrative, that Natura 2000 has very significantly
social, political and cultural circumstances of effective biodiversity increased the protected area coverage
(EEA, 2012). protection; hence the need in Europe. The single designation
for management plans and of sites is not enough in itself to
In establishing Natura 2000, countries safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems,
conservation measures.
also have the flexibility to introduce new but it is a pre-condition to prevent species
designation procedures, adapt existing and habitats of European interest being
ones or underpin the designation by other lost forever.
legislation. Some Natura 2000 sites nearly
always overlap with national designations. and Slovakia. In other countries, there is
This is particularly visible in Estonia, Latvia moderate or little overlap, as in Denmark, 3.3.2
and the Netherlands and to a slightly France or Germany. Switzerland has a EU protected species and habitats
lesser extent in Finland, Lithuania and moderate overlap of Emerald sites with ►See Table 3.3
Sweden. Countries that joined the EU most national designations, while in Norway the
recently — Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania overlap is large. The EU Birds and Habitats Directives
— have extended their protected areas constitute the backbone of Europe’s
very significantly by creating Natura 2000 Independently of the scale and extent legislation on nature conservation.
sites, and in the past a similar process took of the complementarity, it is clear, Member States are required to report
place in Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal however, that the process of designing on the status of species and habitats

PART 2
FIGURE 3.4 Trends in conservation status of assessed habitats at EU level
Dunes habitats (67)
Coastal habitats (94)
Grasslands (122)
Bogs, mires and fens (55)
Forests (227)
Freshwater habitats (94)
Heath and scrub (42)
Sclerophyllous scrub (33)
Rocky habitats (70)
0% 25 % 50 % 100 %
75 %
Favourable Unfavourable-unknown trend Unfavourable-stable
Unfavourable-improving Unknown Unfavourable-deteriorating
Note: The number of assessments is indicated in parenthesis. The total number of assessments is 804.
Source: EEA (2016b), based on conservation status of habitat types and species reporting (Article 17, Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC).
covered by the Birds and Habitats 60 % of species assessments are
60 %
Directives. Comprehensive data sets unfavourable. There are still significant
are therefore available in relation to, gaps in knowledge, especially for marine
among others, conservation status, species. Fish, molluscs and amphibians
trends, pressures and threats, and have a particularly high proportion of
conservation measures. Member States of species assessments show species that exhibit a deteriorating trend
report on those directives every 6 years. unfavourable conservation (EEA, 2016e) (Figure 3.3).
The most recent results cover the period
status.
2006‑2012, and the outcomes of the next The conservation status of species varies
round of reporting, 2013-2018, will be considerably from one biogeographic
available in 2020. Detailed information on region to another. At Member State level,
how countries assess the conservation more unfavourable assessments are
status of species and habitats under the a full pan-European perspective on their declining than improving (EEA, 2016e).
Habitats Directive and population status conservation status.
under the Birds Directive is available Only 16 % of the assessments of habitats
on the EEA’s website (EEA, 2015a). A Assessments of species and habitats protected under the Habitats Directive
parallel mechanism for reporting on protected under the Habitats Directive have a favourable conservation status
the conservation status of species and show predominantly unfavourable at the EU level (EEA, 2015b). Bogs, mires
habitats has been developed under the conservation status (EEA, 2015b). and fens have the highest proportion of
Bern Convention — Resolution 8. The first At the EU level, only 23 % of the unfavourable assessments, followed
results from this reporting will also be assessments of species indicate closely by grasslands (EEA, 2016b)
available in 2020, which will contribute to favourable conservation status, while (Figure 3.4). Conservation status trends

PART 2
TABLE 3.3 Summary assessment — EU protected species and habitats
Past trends A high proportion of protected species and habitats are in unfavourable condition, although there have been
(10-15 years) some limited improvements in the last 10 years.
Outlook to 2030 The underlying drivers of biodiversity loss are not changing favourably so, without significant conservation
efforts, current trends will not be reversed and pressures will continue to increase.
2020 The EU is not on track to meet the 2020 target of improving the conservation status of EU protected species
 and habitats and the cumulative pressures remain high.
Robustness Despite the increasing quality of information delivered by the nature directives reporting, data gaps remain,
as a proportion of the assessments report unknown conservation status of species and habitats, unknown
population status of birds and unknown trends for species or habitats assessed as unfavourable. The available
outlook information is limited so the assessment of the outlook relies primarily on expert judgement.
are quite variable across biogeographic legislation, and achieve a significant and
regions; however, more habitats are measurable improvement in their status’.
stable than decreasing in the terrestrial So far, progress towards the 2020 target
regions. There are still significant gaps of improving the conservation status
in knowledge of marine habitat types. of habitats covered by the EU Habitats
At the EU Member State level, the The pressures on and threats Directive has not been substantial since
majority of assessments indicate low to all terrestrial species, 2010. Similarly, there has been little
numbers of habitats with a favourable progress towards the target for bird
habitats and ecosystems
conservation status (EEA, 2016b). populations under the Birds Directive
most frequently reported by in spite of some positive examples
Over half of the bird species in the Member States are associated (Box 3.1). This indicates that significant
Birds Directive are considered to be with agriculture. additional conservation efforts need to be
‘secure’, i.e. they show no foreseeable implemented to reverse current trends.
risk of extinction and have not declined
or been depleted (EEA, 2015b).
However, 17 % of the bird species are 3.3.3
still threatened and another 15 % are by Member States are associated with Common species (birds and
declining or depleted (EEA, 2016e). agriculture (EEA, 2015b). For freshwater butterflies) and interlinkages between
ecosystems, changes in hydrology, the decline of birds and insects
The short-term trends of breeding including overabstraction of water ►Table 3.4
birds in Member States indicate a high (Chapter 4) are most frequently reported
degree of change in their populations. as being important, although ‘loss of Birds and butterflies are sensitive
There is no clear geographic pattern habitat features or prey availability’ is to environmental change and their
discernible in these trends. For wintering frequently reported for species, as is population numbers can reflect changes
bird populations, assessments show ‘pollution to surface waters’ for habitats. in ecosystems as well as in other animal
an increasing trend for a relatively high and plant populations. Trends in bird
proportion of wintering populations The results of the nature directives’ and butterfly populations can, therefore,
(EEA, 2016e). reporting are used to assess progress in be excellent barometers of the health of
implementing the EU biodiversity strategy the environment.
The pressures and threats for all to 2020, specifically, its Target 1, ‘To
terrestrial species, habitats and halt the deterioration in the status of all The status of birds and butterflies
ecosystems most frequently reported species and habitats covered by EU nature has been the subject of long-term

PART 2
BOX 3.1 The recovery of birds of prey in Europe
H istorically many wildlife species in

Europe have suffered dramatic
declines in their numbers and
well‑designed conservation strategies,
which are mainly a combination of
factors: targeted species protection,
para la Transición Ecológica, 2018; BirdLife
International, 2019).
distribution as a consequence of reducing pressures (e.g. poaching The success stories also work alongside
human activity. However, while Europe or chemical pollution), specific site social change and embracing the
keeps losing biodiversity overall, there protection measures at the local interactions between wildlife and
are also some positive examples of level, such as Special Protection Areas people. The recovery of birds of prey
wildlife making a comeback (Deinet in the Natura 2000 network, and and other wildlife is of great importance
et al., 2013). These include birds of targeted funding via LIFE projects. For for ecosystem functioning and its
prey, e.g. red kite, white-tailed eagle, example, with support from the LIFE resilience (Deinet et al., 2013). It also has
peregrine falcon or lesser kestrel. These programme, the Spanish imperial eagle implications for society and the economy:
success stories show that species can population in the Iberian peninsula reconnecting people with nature
be brought back, even from the brink increased from 50 breeding pairs in increases their well-being and boosts local
of extinction. This requires, however, 1995 to 520 pairs in 2017 (Ministerio and regional economies. ■
monitoring in Europe, much of it via reductions observed since 1990 are on

voluntary effort. The current data sets top of decreases occurring before that
have good geographical and temporal year (EEA, 2019a).
coverage and are methodologically well
founded, illustrating trends that can The long-term trends in farmland,
be linked to both policy and practice The long-term trends in many forest and all common bird and
in terms of land use and management bird and butterfly populations grassland butterfly populations
(EBCC, 2019; Eurostat, 2019). Both demonstrate that Europe has
demonstrate that Europe has
species groups resonate strongly with experienced a major decline in
the interested public and are good experienced a major decline biodiversity. This has been primarily
examples of how the power of citizen in biodiversity. due to the loss, fragmentation
science can be released through and degradation of natural and
effective targeting (EEA, 2019a). semi‑natural ecosystems, mainly
caused by agricultural intensification
Long-term trends (over 25 years) from (Donald et al., 2001; Van Dyck
monitoring schemes of common birds et al., 2009; Jeliazkov et al., 2016),
(in particular farmland birds) and plus Norway and Switzerland) over the intensive forest management
grassland butterflies show significant same period (EEA, 2019a). While this (Virkkala, 2016; Fraixedas et al., 2015),
declines and no sign of recovery (EEA, indicator takes 1990 as a starting point, it land abandonment and urban sprawl
2019a). Figure 3.5 shows that, between should be borne in mind that significant (Chapters 5 and 13). For example,
1990 and 2016, there was a decrease decreases had already occurred before through habitat simplification
of 9 % in the index of common birds that date. (e.g. removal of hedgerows and
in the 26 EU Member States that have treelines to make fields larger), loss
bird population monitoring schemes. In spite of year-to-year fluctuations, and fragmentation, birds lose their
This decrease is slightly greater (11 %) which are typical of butterfly nesting sites and food sources,
if figures for Norway and Switzerland populations, the index of grassland which adds to population decline
are included. The decline in numbers of butterflies has declined significantly (Guerrero et al., 2012). Urban sprawl
common farmland bird over the same in the 15 EU Member States where increases anthropogenic light levels
period was much more pronounced, at butterfly population monitoring schemes as well as noise levels, which affects
32 % (EU) and 35 % (EU plus Norway and exist (Figure 3.6). In 2017, the index the behaviour of singing birds and
Switzerland). The common forest bird was 39 % below its 1990 value in those impairs acoustic communication in
index decreased by 3 % (EU) and 5 % (EU countries. As with bird indices, the birds (Chapter 11).

PART 2
FIGURE 3.5 Common birds population index, 1990-2016
Common birds population index Common forest birds in Europe

Population index (1990 = 100) Population index (1990 = 100)
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
All common birds in Europe (168 species)
Unsmoothed trend Confidence limits
Common forest birds in Europe (34 species)
Common farmland birds in Europe (39 species)
All common birds in Europe Common farmland birds in Europe

Population index (1990 = 100) Population index (1990 = 100)
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Unsmoothed trend Confidence limits Unsmoothed trend Confidence limits
Note: The shaded areas represent the confidence limits. Geographical coverage: EU-28 Member States (except Croatia and Malta)
and Norway and Switzerland.
Sources: EEA (2019a), European Bird Census Council, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, BirdLife International and Czech Society
for Ornithology.

PART 2
FIGURE 3.6 Grassland butterflies population index, 1990-2017
Population index (1990 = 100)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Confidence limits EU-28 smoothed indicator (17 species) EU-28 unsmoothed indicator
Note: The shaded area represents the confidence limits. Geographical coverage: Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.
Source: EEA (2019a), Butterfly Conservation Europe, European Butterfly Monitoring Scheme partnership, Assessing Butterflies in Europe (ABLE)
project.
Agricultural intensification can flying insect biomass in protected areas

entail high inputs of agrochemicals, in Germany. Declines concern pollinators
including pesticides. Their too, including butterflies, as discussed
environmental impacts on the earlier, but also honey bees and wild
environment are described in bees (Potts et al., 2010; EC, 2018b). An
Chapter 10. Increased use of Grassland butterfly populations exhaustive global review of 73 reports
pesticides results in reduced insect of insect species declines (Sánchez-Bayo
declined by 39 % in 15 EU
populations and seed production and Wyckhuys, 2019) concluded that
by plants, thereby reducing food for
Member States since 1990. habitat loss by conversion to intensive
birds (Vickery et al., 2009; Musitelli agriculture, followed by urbanisation,
et al., 2016). Apart from being an pollution (mainly pesticides and
important source of food for birds fertilisers), invasive alien species and
and other animals, insects play a climate change (to the least extent in
key role in ecosystem processes and pests, diseases and invasive alien species moderate climatic zones) are the main
provide various ecosystem services regulation (Noriega et al., 2018). drivers of decline. Moreover, there
(Schowalter et al., 2018). Their most is increasing evidence that the use
widely recognised role is pollination Recently, reports of dramatic losses of of pesticides such as neonicotinoid
(Section 3.4.4 and Box 3.2) but they insects have been widely discussed. insecticides has a much wider impact
are also instrumental in developing Hallmann et al. (2017) reported a decline on biodiversity, not only affecting
soil nutrient cycling and providing of more than 75 % over 27 years in total non‑target invertebrate (insect)

PART 2
TABLE 3.4 Summary assessment — common species (birds and butterflies)
Past trends Since 1990 there has been a continuing downward trend in populations of common birds. Although this has
(> 25 years) levelled off since 2000 for some species, no trend towards recovery has been observed. The most pronounced
declines were observed in farmland birds and grassland butterflies.
Outlook to 2030 The underlying drivers of the decline in common species are not changing favourably. Full implementation of
a range of policy measures, including sectoral policies, is required to deliver improvements.
2020  Europe is not on track to meet the 2020 target of halting biodiversity loss.
Robustness Data collection methods are scientifically sound and the methods used by skilled volunteers are harmonised.
However, wide monitoring schemes currently exist for only two species groups. The available outlook
information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on expert judgement.
species but also causing declines in It is difficult to forecast how soon 3.3.4
bird populations. Neonicotinoids are biodiversity, as illustrated by the Ecosystem condition and services
applied as seed dressings to arable abundance of bird and grassland ►See Table 3.5
crops (Goulson, 2014) but only a very butterfly populations, will recover, as
small percentage of this dressing their state is influenced by a complex The ability of ecosystems to deliver
(approximately 5 %) is absorbed by the combination of environmental factors ecosystem services is inherently
growing plant. The rest accumulates and policy measures. Potential positive linked to their condition and provides
in soils and leaches into surface and impacts of CAP reform and the measures an important pivot between their
ground waters. Hallmann et al. (2014) anticipated under the multiannual constituent species and habitats, and
used the Dutch long-term monitoring financial framework 2014‑2020 on their abiotic components. Species and
bird data and measurements of surface common species associated with ecosystems are generally characterised
water quality to check to what extent farmland may become apparent in by a capacity to cope with exploitation
water contamination by the most the period 2020-2030, as long as these and disturbance. Beyond certain limits,
popular neonicotinoid, imidacloprid, policies are implemented thoroughly or a ‘safe operating space’, however,
correlated with bird population trends. and on a large scale throughout the EU species can decline in numbers or
They found that higher concentrations (EEA, 2019a). On the other hand, other diversity and disappear or become
of imidacloprid in surface waters were factors that could adversely impact extinct, and ecosystems can lose
consistently associated with decreases the outlook beyond 2020 include the their capacity to deliver services
in bird numbers. The authors concluded negative impact of climate change on (Birkhofer et al., 2018; Landis, 2017).
that the declines are predominantly biodiversity and ecosystems, particularly Most biodiversity loss is ultimately
linked to changes in the food chain, on those specialist species groups anthropogenic and is driven by human
namely the depletion of insect food that are dependent on non-intensive production and consumption.
resources for birds. It cannot be agriculture and forest ecosystems
excluded, however, that declines in bird (EEA, 2019a). The increased competition The IPBES regional assessment for
populations are also linked to trophic for land could also intensify agricultural Europe and Central Asia concluded (for
accumulation through consuming production in the EU, through land take IPBES sub-regions western Europe and
contaminated invertebrates or ingesting via urbanisation as well as for producing central Europe) that there are decreasing
coated seeds (Hallmann et al., 2014). renewable energy and biofuels. trends (2001-2017) in biodiversity

PART 2
BOX 3.2 EU Pollinators initiative
P ollinators are an integral part of

healthy ecosystems. In Europe,
pollinators are mainly insects such as
In recent decades pollinators have
declined dramatically and many species
are on the verge of extinction (EC,
first‑ever EU initiative on pollinators.
The initiative sets strategic objectives
and a set of actions to be taken by the
bees (domesticated and wild bees), 2018c). Existing evidence suggests that EU and its Member States to address
hoverflies, butterflies, moths and the main drivers of pollinator decline are the decline in pollinators in the EU
beetles. Without them, many plant land use change, intensive agricultural and contribute to global conservation
species would decline and eventually management and pesticide use, efforts. It sets the framework for an
disappear along with the organisms environmental pollution, invasive alien integrated approach to the problem
that depend on them. They are species, diseases and climate change and a more effective use of existing
also important from an economic (IPBES, 2016). Mitigating the decline tools and policies now and in the
perspective: in the EU, around 84 % will require actions across sectors, following years under three priorities:
of crops and 78 % of temperate wild particularly in land management. (1) improving knowledge of pollinator
flowers depend, at least in part, on decline, its causes and consequences;
animal pollination and an estimated Acknowledging the urgent need (2) tackling the causes of pollinator
EUR 15 billion of the EU’s annual to address pollinator decline, on decline; and (3) raising awareness,
agricultural output is directly attributed 1 June 2018, the European Commission engaging society at large and promoting
to insect pollinators (EC, 2018b). adopted a Communication on the collaboration (EC, 2018a, 2018b). ■
status for almost all terrestrial and targets of the strategy, e.g. green
ecosystem types and that the majority Biodiversity targets will not be infrastructure, sustainable agriculture
of non‑provisioning ecosystem services and forestry.
met without wider and more
such as regulation of freshwater quality
or pollination (Box 3.2) show declining effective implementation The final outcomes of the EU-wide
trends (1960‑2017) (IPBES, 2018). of existing policies and assessment will be available by the
stronger societal responses end of 2019. The work done so far has
Although reporting on ecosystem looked at trends in five main categories
to biodiversity loss.
condition and services is a relatively of pressures (Section 3.1) in eight broad
new area and the coverage and MAES ecosystem types in Europe (urban,
availability of data and information cropland, grassland, heathland and
is not comprehensive, it offers the shrub, woodland and forest, wetlands,
potential for applying new technologies freshwater and marine). Habitat change,
and innovation as well as providing an including loss and fragmentation, as
important benchmark with high policy by 2020. Action 5 in Target 2 of the well as pollution, have had the greatest
relevance. EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 calls overall impact and they seem to be
on Member States to map and assess on the increase in more than 60 % of
The EU biodiversity strategy to 2020, ecosystems and their services in their ecosystems assessed (EEA, 2016c). The
the global strategic plan for biodiversity national territory. This mapping and effects of climate change on ecosystems
2011-2020 and many of the Sustainable assessment of ecosystems and their are wide ranging and are considered one
Development Goals put ecosystems services (MAES) process developed a of the key risk factors for biodiversity
at the core of agreed objectives and common analytical framework to carry decline and are projected to increase
targets. Target 2 of the EU biodiversity out the relevant assessment (Maes significantly across all ecosystems. A
strategy explicitly aims to maintain and et al., 2013, 2018). Work at national warming climate is leading to changes
restore ecosystems and their services level is complemented by an EU-wide in species distribution and causing shifts
by including green infrastructure assessment performed by the EEA in their ranges (EEA, 2017) as well as
in spatial planning and restoring at and the JRC, which aims to provide the phenological changes, which may lead to
least 15 % of degraded ecosystems knowledge base for the other actions decreased food availability and increased

PART 2
TABLE 3.5 Summary assessment — ecosystem condition and services
Past trends Deteriorating trends have dominated with continued loss of valuable ecosystems and habitats as a result
(10-15 years) of land use change, particularly grasslands and wetlands, which has a severe impact on biodiversity and
ecosystem services. Agricultural practices continue to have negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem
services such as pollination.
Outlook to 2030 The underlying drivers of biodiversity loss are not changing favourably and increasing pressures from
land use change, pollution, extraction of natural resources, climate change and invasive alien species are
expected to further impact habitat quality and ecosystem condition. Ongoing initiatives triggered by policies,
e.g. green infrastructure investments, the Pollinators initiative and restoration projects, are expected to deliver
improvements.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the 2020 target of maintaining and enhancing ecosystems and their services by
establishing green infrastructure and restoring at least 15 % of degraded ecosystems. While Natura 2000 areas
 have a positive effect on ecosystem condition and biodiversity in surrounding areas, pressures remain high
and the conservation measures undertaken are still insufficient.
Robustness Monitoring systems, models for assessing ecosystem services and data collection methods are scientifically
sound but still improving in terms of completeness and appropriate spatial and temporal resolution.
Significant improvements in data availability are expected, but the interconnection between ecosystem
condition and service capacity still requires more research. Important data and information sources are
natural capital accounting, the Copernicus programme and research initiatives. The available outlook
information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on expert judgement.
competition, and changes in species of euros to the European economy environment (e.g. Microstegium
interlinkages and relationships. Climate and to the health and well‑being of vimineum, Parthenium hysterophorus,
change increases the importance of Europeans every year. The EU Regulation Sciurus niger). More information on
migration corridors between ecosystems on invasive alien species (EU, 2014) invasive alien species is available
and between protected areas. However, provides a set of measures to combat through the European Alien Species
there are many barriers to movement, such species, ranging from prevention, Information Network (EASIN)
and not all species are able to move early detection and rapid eradication to (JRC, 2019c).
fast enough to keep up with the pace of management of invasive alien species.
climate change (EEA, 2017). The outlook for ecosystem condition
The core of the Regulation is the list and services are difficult to assess
Another key pressure on biodiversity and of invasive alien species of Union mainly because of the complexity of
ecosystems is invasive alien species IAS): concern, which is updated regularly the interactions and interdependencies
animals and plants that are introduced and currently includes 49 species between them, for example land use
accidentally or deliberately into a (EU, 2019). Information on their spatial change affects the quantitative as well
natural environment where they are not distribution is now available for each as the qualitative aspects of ecosystem
normally found, with serious negative of the species on the list (JRC, 2019a). services. Overall, various European
consequences (Walther et al., 2009; This will serve as a baseline supporting initiatives and policies aim to counteract
Simberloff et al., 2013; Rabitsch et al., the implementation of the Regulation the deterioration in ecosystem condition
2016). They spread through different and monitoring the evolution of IAS and services. These are, among others,
pathways (Rabitsch et al., 2016), have distribution in Europe. The initial green infrastructure investments, the
a negative impact on ecosystem findings indicate that several species Pollinators initiative, LIFE projects,
services and can increase the incidence are already quite widespread across including rewetting of wetlands,
of livestock diseases. Overall, they the EU (e.g. Impatiens glandulifera, renaturation of rivers and lakes,
represent a major threat to native plants Heracleum mantegazzianum, Ondatra improving the Natura 2000 and Emerald
and animals as well as ecosystems in zibethicus) (JRC, 2019a), while others networks and relevant activities in rural
Europe, causing damage worth billions are not yet established in the European development programmes. However, the

PART 2
effects of many of those initiatives will be Ecosystem services and functions

visible only in the medium or long term. The condition of ecosystems rely on decomposition, which is the
Time lags in ecosystems’ responses to transformation of plant and animal
in Europe is increasingly under
environmental changes due to their residues into nutrients available to
buffering capacities may explain the lack pressure from land use change, plants. This is possible only through
of observed improvements in condition, extraction of natural resources, burying, mixing, digesting and
but they are ambivalent, as they can also pollution, climate change and transforming of residues by soil animals
hide negative impacts due to ongoing including worms, mites, collembolans
invasive alien species.
high pressures. and bacteria. Soil organisms not only
provide stability in the face of stress
and disturbance, they also provide
3.3.5 protection against soil‑borne diseases
Genetic diversity and soil biodiversity (Brussaard et al., 2007).
Genetic diversity is crucial for food The reasons for what is known as One hectare of agricultural soil contains
security, human health and the genetic erosion are similar to the about 3 000 kg of soil organisms (Bloem
adaptation of species and ecosystems to pressures on biodiversity described et al., 2005), involving between 10 000
environmental changes. earlier in this chapter and include and 50 000 species (Jeffery et al.,
in particular the intensification and 2015). According to size and weight,
Apart from diversity of species and industrialisation of animal and plant earthworms dominate, whereas in terms
ecosystems, genetic diversity is the third production, urbanisation, environmental of species richness, bacteria and fungi
key level of biodiversity; it describes degradation and land use change dominate (of which only 0.2-6 % are
the variability within a species, thus (e.g. loss of grazing land). detected) (Orgiazzi et al., 2016).
characterising the genetic pool, which
enables organisms to better use, modify With climate change, the conservation Although soil biodiversity is difficult
and adapt to changing environmental and sustainable use of genetic diversity to investigate, there is evidence that
conditions. Plant and animal genetic has become more critical than ever. For pollution from metal and nanomaterials
resources for food and agriculture example, plants and animals that are significantly reduces diversity
are an essential part of the biological genetically tolerant of high temperatures (Gans et al., 2005), and species-diverse
basis for world food security (Martinez or droughts, or resistant to pests and systems decompose more organic
and Amri, 2008; FAO, 2015) and they diseases, are of great importance in matter and produce more nitrogen
contribute to human health and climate change adaptation, which compounds in the soil than species-poor
dietary diversity (Mouillé, et al., 2010). requires a diverse genetic basis soils (Setälä and McLean, 2004).
In addition to improving the quality of (FAO, 2018). Preserving plant varieties
agricultural products, genetic diversity and rearing endangered breeds is crucial Soil biodiversity is increasingly under
supports ecosystem-specific regulation for that purpose (FAO, 2019). pressure, as a result of erosion,
processes, such as the suppression of contamination and soil sealing,
pests and diseases. In order to properly address the critical which may limit its capacity to deliver
value of genetic diversity, the European ecosystem services (Gardi et al., 2013;
While Europe is home to a large Commission, following an initiative Orgiazzi et al., 2016) (Chapter 5).
proportion of the world’s crop varieties by the European Parliament in 2013,
and domestic livestock breeds, it is also commissioned a preparatory action on
the region with the highest proportion EU plant and animal genetic resources 3.4
of breeds classified as ‘at risk’. At least (EC, 2016b), that aimed to identify Responses and prospects of
130 previously known cattle breeds are the actions needed to conserve and meeting agreed targets and
already classified as ‘extinct’ (Hiemstra sustainably use genetic resources and to objectives
et al., 2010; FAO, 2018). Modern plant valorise the use of neglected breeds and
breeding towards higher yields and varieties in an economically viable way . The recent fitness check of the EU
minimal crop failure have reduced crop nature legislation (EC, 2016a) concluded
genetic diversity (Fu, 2015), and many Soil biodiversity maintains key that, within the framework of broader
traditional crop varieties and wild crop ecosystem processes related to EU biodiversity policy, the legislation
relatives are at risk too or have become carbon and nutrient cycling and soil remains highly relevant and is fit for
extinct already. water balance. purpose. However, full achievement

PART 2
of the objectives of the nature may be of concern when it results in the

directives will depend on substantial Pressures on biodiversity conversion of natural or semi‑natural
improvement in their implementation ecosystems either for producing
and drivers of loss are mainly
in close partnership with local biofuels themselves or for producing
authorities and various stakeholders in linked to a range of economic other crops that have been displaced by
the Member States to deliver practical sectors and sectoral policies. biofuels.
results on the ground for nature,
people and the economy in the EU. While biodiversity in Europe is subject
In response to the fitness check, the to many pressures and threats, the
Commission produced an action plan economic activities of Europe’s nations
for nature, people and the economy in have the potential to cause widespread
2017, including 15 actions to be carried plans or programmes of measures depletion of natural capital and direct
out before 2020 that aim to rapidly (EEA, 2016a, 2018a). and specific damage to habitats and
improve the implementation of the species well beyond Europe’s regional
nature directives (EC, 2017). Financing mechanisms and other boundaries. Europe’s ecological deficit
instruments included in sectoral and is considerable; its total demand for
Other new policy instruments and territorial policies have both direct ecological goods and services exceeds
initiatives, such as the National and indirect impacts on biodiversity what its own ecosystems supply (EEA,
Emission Ceilings Directive, updated and ecosystem services to a very 2019b; Chapter 1). The implementation
bioeconomy strategy, the Regulation significant extent. While some of of Target 6 of the EU 2020 biodiversity
on invasive alien species or the them may contribute to biodiversity strategy, aiming to help stop the loss of
EU Pollinators initiative aim to help conservation, many others affect it global biodiversity, continues to be of
combat pressures and drivers of negatively through lack of coherence utmost importance.
biodiversity loss. and conflicting objectives. For example,
measures introduced in the CAP through Pressures on biodiversity and drivers
Overall, however, policy responses, agri‑environmental schemes to reduce of loss are mainly linked to a range
although successful in some areas, the environmental impact of agriculture of economic sectors and sectoral
have been insufficient to halt have brought some positive outcomes. policies. Economic growth is generally
biodiversity loss and the degradation Overall, however, these have not been not decoupled from environmental
of ecosystem services. Achieving sufficient to halt biodiversity loss. The degradation and such decoupling
significant progress towards 2013 CAP reform introduced a payment would require a transformation
biodiversity targets requires wider for a compulsory set of ‘greening in policies and tax reforms in the
and more effective implementation measures’, accounting for 30 % of the region (IPBES, 2018). Mainstreaming
of existing policies (EFSA, 2016). direct payments budget (EC, 2016c). These biodiversity concerns, in both the public
Improving coherence between measures are intended to enable the and private sectors, and including
different environmental policies, CAP to be more effective in delivering its them in sectoral policies is therefore
such as the EU biodiversity strategy, environmental and climate objectives, crucial, especially for the post‑2020
the Water Framework Directive, the including those for biodiversity, soil biodiversity agenda. These include
Floods Directive and the Marine quality and carbon sequestration, and at trade, agriculture, forestry, fisheries,
Strategy Framework Directive would the same time to ensure the long-term spatial planning, energy, transport,
make a positive contribution. For sustainability of agriculture in the EU. health, tourism and the financial sector,
example, assessments of conservation However, a recent special report from the including insurance.
status and pressures on freshwater European Court of Auditors (2017) found
habitat types under the Habitats the CAP greening measures ineffective, A more integrated approach across
Directive and assessments of the leading to positive changes in farming sectors and administrative boundaries
ecological status of water bodies practices on only 5 % of EU farmland. would entail a wider application
under the Water Framework Directive Moreover, the report concluded that of ecosystem-based management
run in parallel and there are not biodiversity and soil quality continue to be and nature-based solutions. Green
enough synergies between the two under increasing threat. infrastructure, a strategically planned
processes. A coordinated approach network of natural and semi-natural
would result in co‑benefits for both Another example is the production of areas with other environmental
processes and improved management renewable energy and biofuels, which features, is an example of such

PART 2
ecosystem-based management. areas outside Natura 2000. National interviewed are concerned about
Although biodiversity remains at and regional frameworks to promote biodiversity loss and the state of the
the core of green infrastructure, it restoration and green infrastructure natural world (EEA, 2016d; EC, 2019).
is much more than a biodiversity need to be further developed and
conservation instrument. Using a green implemented. Chapter 17 provides Faced with the unprecedented and
infrastructure approach can improve more information on the role of green catastrophic loss of biodiversity and
the connectivity between and within infrastructure in the transition towards degradation of the Earth’s ecosystems
protected areas and surrounding a sustainable society and economy. (IPBES, 2019), further efforts are
non-protected parts of the landscape, needed to increase public awareness
between urban and rural areas, and In addition to policy, societal responses of the importance of biodiversity and
provide many other benefits such as to biodiversity loss and the need ecosystem services for the livelihoods
increasing resilience to climate change, for its conservation also play an and well-being of Europeans, so
improving human health and well‑being important role; these include changes that they may be more prepared to
and flood regulation. The Natura 2000 in the patterns of food consumption make personal efforts. This includes
network, which is a central part of and consumption of other goods influencing decision‑making with
European green infrastructure, is an (Marquardt et al., 2019; Crenna the aims of redefining priorities,
excellent example of existing natural et al., 2019). The results of the 2019 achieving more coherent development
features (Section 3.4.1). There is a need, Eurobarometer survey show that of policies and stronger policy
however, to ensure better protection Europeans’ familiarity with the term implementation, to contribute
and management of the sites (including ‘biodiversity’ has increased and that an to sustainability transitions accepted
their connectivity) and the condition of overwhelming majority of the people by society.

04.
Freshwater
2
© Simone Manfredi
3
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PART 2
Key messages
• Water is an essential resource for • Diffuse pollution and water • It is on the river basin scale
human health, agriculture, energy abstraction pressures are expected that effective solutions for water
production, transport and nature. to continue in response to intensive management can be found and
Securing its sustainable use remains agricultural practices and energy essential knowledge is being developed
a key challenge globally and within production. This requires balancing through the implementation of river
Europe. societal demands for water with basin management plans under
ensuring its availability for nature. the Water Framework Directive.
• Currently only 40 % of Europe’s Climate change is likely to change the Solutions such as natural water
surface water bodies achieve good amount of water available regionally, retention measures, buffer strips,
ecological status and wetlands are increasing the need for either flood smart water pricing, more efficient
widely degraded, as are 80-90 % of protection or drought management irrigation techniques and precision
floodplains. This has a critical impact and making this balance more difficult agriculture will continue to grow in
on the conservation status of wetland to achieve. importance. An ecosystem-based
habitats and the species that depend management approach, considering
on them. Although point source • Improved implementation and multiple environmental objectives and
pollution, nitrogen surpluses and increased coherence between EU co‑benefits to society and the economy,
water abstraction have been reduced, water-related policy objectives and will further support progress.
freshwaters continue to be affected by measures is needed to improve
diffuse pollution, hydromorphological water quality and quantity. Looking
changes and water abstraction. ahead it will also become increasingly
critical to address and monitor the
climate‑water-ecosystem-agriculture
nexus and connection with energy
needs.

objectives/targets
Water ecosystems and wetlands Trends show a mixed Developments show

 Not on track
Hydromorphological pressures Deteriorating trends Developments show

 Not on track
Pollution pressures on water and links Trends show a mixed Developments show
 Not on track
to human health picture a mixed picture
Water abstraction and its pressures Improving trends Developments show

 Not on track
on surface and groundwater dominate a mixed picture
4 par A
PART 2
04.
Freshwater
4.1 4.2
Scope of the theme Policy context
Clean water is an essential resource Europe’s water policy has developed

for human health, agriculture, gradually over the last few decades.
industry, energy production, transport, Europe’s waters are affected The first EU policies aiming to improve
recreation and nature. Ensuring water quality date back to 1991, with
by pressures from pollution,
that enough water of high quality is the adoption of the Urban Waste Water
available for all purposes, including
overabstraction and physical Treatment and Nitrates Directives
for water and wetland ecosystems, changes. (EU, 1991a, 1991b), both targeting
remains a key challenge globally and (among other things) reducing pollution
within Europe. Europe’s waters and pressures on water. In 2000, with the
wetlands remain under pressure from adoption of the Water Framework
water pollution from nutrients and Directive (EU, 2000), an integrated
hazardous substances, overabstraction ecosystem-based approach to managing
of water and physical changes. Climate water was introduced. Public safety
change is expected to exacerbate many agriculture, as well as other human and health objectives were secured
of these pressures, which depending on uses that are economically important, by the Drinking Water, Bathing Water
the pressure, may act on groundwater, but unfortunately also add large and Floods Directives (EU, 1998, 2006,
rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal pressures to the environment. 2007), and presently a proposal on the
waters, as well as the riparian zone and Improving water status will support minimum requirements for water reuse
wetlands. In return, this reduces the improvements in biodiversity (Chapter is under discussion. While the directives
quality of the natural services provided 3) and in the marine environment tend to be very specific, the importance
by those ecosystems (Figure 4.1). (Chapter 6). Finally, Europe indirectly of water in relation to biodiversity and
uses freshwater resources in countries marine policies is pursued through
The remaining challenge is to further outside its boundaries by importing the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020
reduce the many pressures on goods with water-intensive production (EC, 2011a) and the priority objectives
water. These are linked to intensive chains (Chapter 1). of the Seventh Environment Action
SOER 2020/Freshwater 95
PART 2
FIGURE 4.1 Selection of links between drivers, pressures, condition, ecosystem services and policy objectives
Drivers Pressures Condition/Status Ecosystem Policy

(human activities) services objectives
Water Water Ecological Clean water Clean and safe

use abstraction status for all purposes drinking water
Agricultural Nutrient Surface water Nutrient Sustainable use of

production pollution chemical status retention water
Flood Chemical Groundwater Quality of aquatic Good status of

protection pollution chemical status ecosystems surface and
groundwater
Hydromorphological Groundwater Water retention
Hydropower pressures quantitative status and flood control Reduced nitrates
pollution
Water Alien species Drinking Groundwater
storage introduction water quality recharge and Flood protection
water storage
Ports and Floodplain and Protection of
navigation wetland condition species
and habitats
Note: BOD, biological oxygen demand.
Source: Modified from Maes et al. (2018).
Programme, or 7th EAP (EU, 2013a). albeit on a different timeline from the Water Framework Directive’s objectives.
Water quantity remains an area rest of the EU and Norway. Table 4.1 gives an overview of selected
of national competence, although policies on freshwater addressed in
issues linked to overall sustainable Europe’s water policy also contributes this chapter.
water use are of transboundary and to United Nations (UN) Sustainable
thus European interest (EC, 2011b). Development Goal 6 (SDG 6)
EEA member countries that are (UN, 2016) (Table 4.1) and to a range of 4.3
not Member States of the EU also other policies, for example in the areas Key trends and outlooks
implement water policies inspired of biodiversity and nature (Chapter 3),
by the Water Framework and Floods the marine environment (Chapter 6) 4.3.1
Directives. Switzerland has set binding and chemical pollution (Chapter 10). Water ecosystems and wetlands
targets and requirements for its Conversely, another range of policies ►See Table 4.2
water policy and collaborates with its also influences freshwater: air pollution
neighbours to achieve shared objectives policies (Chapter 8), industrial pollution In the context of European policy,
through International Commissions policies (Chapter 12), and sectoral surface water ecosystems are defined as
for the Protection of the Rhine, policies (Chapter 13). An overview of rivers, lakes, and transitional and coastal
Lake Constance and Lake Geneva. environmental pressures stemming from waters. In addition many wetlands such
Turkey developed a national river basin agriculture is covered in Chapter 13. In as floodplains, bogs and mires depend
management strategy for 2014-2023 the context of water it is important to on the availability of water for their
with a view to ensuring the sustainable mention that the common agricultural existence. They are often found in the
management of water resources in line policy (CAP) includes requirements proximity of surface waters or depend on
with EU legislation. Iceland has adopted that support achieving environmental groundwater. These ecosystems provide
the Water Framework Directive, and it objectives. Funding provided under important regulating ecosystem services,
is working towards its implementation, CAP Pillar II potentially supports the such as water purification, carbon capture
96 SOER 2020/Freshwater
PART 2
Water ecosystems and wetlands
Achieve good ecological status of all water bodies in Water Framework Directive 2015 Legally binding
Europe (2000/60/EC) commitment
Protect, conserve and enhance freshwater as well as the 7th EAP, PO 1 (EC, 2013) 2050 Non-binding
biodiversity that supports this natural capital commitment
Protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including SDG 6.6 (UN, 2016) 2020 Non-binding
mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes commitment
Hydromorphological pressures
To assess and manage flood risks, aiming to reduce the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) 2015 Legally binding
adverse consequences for human health, environment commitment
and cultural heritage
Good hydromorphological status (quality element Water Framework Directive 2015 Legally binding
supporting good ecological status) (2000/60/EC) commitment
Pollution pressures on water and links to human health
Achieve good chemical status of all surface and Water Framework Directive 2015 Legally binding
groundwater bodies (2000/60/EC) commitment
Reducing and further preventing water pollution by Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) N/A Legally binding
nitrates from agricultural sources commitment
To protect the environment in the EU from the adverse Urban Waste Water Treatment EU-15: Non-binding
effects of urban waste water through collection and Directive (91/271/EEC) 1998-2005 commitments
treatment of waste water. Implementation period
depends on year of accession EU-13:
2006-2023
To preserve, protect and improve the quality of the Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) 2008 Legally binding
environment and to protect human health commitment
To protect human health from adverse effects of Drinking Water Directive (98/83/EC) 2003 Legally binding
contamination of water for human consumption commitment
Eliminate challenges to human health and well-being, 7th EAP, PO 3 (EC, 2013) 2050 Non-binding commitment
such as water pollution and toxic materials
Improve water quality by reducing pollution SDG 6.3 (UN, 2016) 2030 Non-binding
commitment
Water abstraction and its pressures on surface- and groundwater
Achieve good groundwater quantitative status of all Water Framework Directive 2015 Legally binding
groundwater bodies (2000/60/EC)
Water stress in the EU is prevented or significantly 7th EAP; PO 2 (EC, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
reduced commitment
Water abstraction should stay below 20 % of available Roadmap to a resource efficient 2020
renewable water resources Europe (EC, 2011b)
Substantially increase water use efficiency across all SDG 6.4 (UN, 2016) 2030 Non-binding
sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply commitment
of freshwater
Implement integrated water resources management at SDG 6.5 (UN, 2016) 2030 Non-binding
all levels, including through transboundary cooperation commitment
as appropriate
Note: EU-13, countries joining the EU on or after 1 May 2004; EU-15, countries joining the EU (or its predecessors) before 30 April 2004;
PO, Priority objective; N/A, non-applicable.
PART 2
and storage, and flood protection, in As a consequence, the capacity of
40 %
addition to providing habitats for many floodplains to deliver important and
protected species. Hence, achieving good valuable ecosystem services linked to
status of Europe’s surface waters not flood protection and healthy functioning
only serves the objective of providing of river ecosystems has been reduced,
clean water but also supports the of the surface water bodies ultimately reducing their capacity to
objective of providing better conditions support achieving good ecological and
in Europe have a good
for some of Europe’s most endangered conservation status. The conservation
ecosystems, habitats and species, as listed
ecological status. status of many freshwater habitats and
under the Habitats and Birds Directives. species listed in the Habitats and Birds
Unfortunately, however, both surface Directives is not changing, and it remains
water ecosystems and wetlands are under predominantly unfavourable or bad
considerable pressure. some eastern European and southern (Table 4.2). The habitat group ‘Bogs, mires
river basin districts, where more tend to and fens’ (different wetland types) has
Trends in the ecological status achieve good ecological status (Map 4.1). the highest proportion of unfavourable
of water assessments — almost 75 % (Chapter 3).
The ecological status assessment is based The group ‘Freshwater habitats’ is also
The quality of surface water ecosystems on the ‘one out, all out principle’, i.e. if predominantly unfavourable, as are
is assessed as ecological status under one assessed element of quality fails to assessments of amphibians (Chapter 3).
the Water Framework Directive. achieve good status, the overall result is
The ecological status assessment is less than good status. Thus, the status
performed for 111 000 water bodies in of individual quality elements may be Pressures and driving forces
Europe and it is based on assessments better than the overall status. Overall,
of individual biological quality elements for rivers, 50-70 % of classified water The main reasons for not achieving
and supporting physico-chemical and bodies have high or good status for good ecological status are linked to
hydromorphological quality elements several quality elements, whereas only hydromorphological pressures (40 %),
(definitions can be found in EEA, 2018b 40 % of rivers achieve good ecological diffuse pollution (38 %) and water
and Section 4.3.2). A recent compilation status or better. Since the first river basin abstraction (Section 4.4). The
of national assessments, done as part of management plans, many more individual understanding of the links between
the second river basin management plans quality elements have been monitored, status and pressures has improved
required under the Water Framework improving the confidence of assessments, with the development of river basin
Directive (EEA, 2018b; EC, 2019), shows even if the variability of methods used management plans, and it is expected
that 40 % of Europe’s surface water by Member States remains so large that the implementation of the Water
bodies achieve good ecological status (1). that comparisons have to be made with Framework Directive will increasingly
This is the same share of water bodies caution (Table 4.2). lead to a reduction in the most critical
achieving good status as reported in pressures and thus to improved
the first river basin management plans. ecological status of surface water bodies
Lakes and coastal waters tend to achieve Trends in wetlands (Table 4.2). Freshwater habitats are
better ecological status than rivers and subject to many of the same pressures
transitional waters, and natural water Across Europe, wetlands are being as surface water bodies, and they are
bodies are generally found to have better lost. Between the years 2000 and 2018 often very sensitive to overabstraction
ecological status than the ecological the already small area of wetlands of water. In reporting under the
potential found for heavily modified or decreased further by approximately 1 % Habitats Directive for freshwater
artificial ones. Across Europe, there is a (Chapter 5). Many wetlands are found habitats, changes in hydrology are
difference between river basin districts in in undisturbed floodplains, the areas most frequently reported as being
densely populated central Europe, where next to the river covered by water during important, as is ‘pollution to surface
a high proportion of water bodies do not floods. Scientific estimates suggest that waters’ Chapter 3). In parts of Europe
achieve good ecological status, and those 70-90 % of floodplains are degraded where groundwater abstraction
in northern Scandinavia, Scotland and (Tockner and Stanford, 2002; EEA, 2016). is high, the pressure on wetlands
(1) The WISE WFD database that underlies the WFD visualisation tool is subject to updates. This may lead to values in the visualisation tool differing
from those presented in this chapter. The numbers in the text refer to values available on 1 January 2019. Recently, the database has been
updated by Norway and Ireland, and these updates are captured in Map 4.1 and Map 4.2 but not in the values provided in the text.
PART 2
MAP 4.1 Country comparison — results of assessment under the Water Framework Directive of
ecological status or potential shown by river basin district
Canary-50°
Islands (ES) -40° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 70° 60°
°
30° 30°
Percentage of water bodies,
not in good ecological status
or potential, per river basin
60°
district
0%
Azores Islands (PT)
-30°
40°
-30°
Madeira Island (PT)

-20°
100 %
-20°
No data reported 50°°
20°N Guadeloupe
60°W
and
50°
Martinique Islands (FR) EEA countries not
implementing WFD
Outside coverage
60°W Notes:
Second river basin
management plans
French Guiana (FR)
40°
50°
40°
Mayotte Island (FR)

45°
45°
Réunion Island (FR)

55°
30°
55°
30° -10° 0° 10° 0 500 20° 1000 1500 30°
km 40°
Notes:
Caution is advised when comparing results among Member States as the results are affected by the methods used to collect and
analyse data and often cannot be compared directly.
RBMP, river basin management plan.
Coverage: EU Member States, Norway and Iceland.
Source: EEA (2018e).
PART 2
TABLE 4.2 Summary assessment — water ecosystems and wetlands
Past trends There has been mixed progress with 40 % of Europe’s surface waters in good ecological status and some
(10-15 years) improvements in individual biological quality elements observed in the past 6 years. The conservation
status of freshwater protected habitats and species is not changing, and remains predominantly
unfavourable or bad.
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress is expected as implementation of the Water Framework Directive continues.
Implementation of available provisions within the Water Framework, Floods, Habitats and Birds Directives to
improve the conservation status of water-dependent habitats and species, by increasing the area of natural
floodplains and wetlands, will be required to deliver improvements.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the objective of achieving good ecological status for all surface waters by 2020.
 Europe is not on track to meet the 2020 target of improving the conservation status of protected species and
habitats (bogs, mires, fens, freshwater habitats and amphibians) and the cumulative pressures remain high.
Robustness The EEA has collated EU Member States’ assessments made under the Water Framework Directive. While each
assessment is based on observations and can be considered robust, differences between approaches among
EU Member States make comparisons challenging. The considerable loss of floodplains and wetlands is well
documented. Outlooks are based primarily on expert judgement and assume that management implemented
under EU policies will be effective and lead to some improvement. Knowledge gaps remain large for habitats
and species not directly encompassed by EU legislation.
and freshwater ecosystems can be These pressures occur because both

considerable. If they are designated as the river and its floodplains are subject
Natura 2000 sites, freshwater habitats to a multitude of human uses that have
and wetlands are protected through altered their hydrology, morphology
the associated management plans. An and connectivity as well as catchment
analysis of the share of inland surface Europe is unlikely to achieve land use over centuries. These uses are
water covered by protected areas diverse and include increasing efforts
good ecological status for all
showed that in the majority of European to straighten rivers to make them
countries it is above the 17 % protection surface waters by 2020. navigable, drainage to gain agricultural
level set out in Aichi biodiversity land, urban development, and the
target 11 (Bastin et al., 2019). need for ports, flood protection, water
storage, hydropower and cooling water
(Table 4.3). Transversal structures in
4.3.2 particular (e.g. dams, weirs or locks) act
Hydromorphological pressures are one of the main reasons that as barriers for movement of sediment
►See Table 4.3 surface water bodies fail to achieve and biota. They also hamper the
good ecological status; it is listed as a passage of fish, which is particularly
Hydromorphology is considered a significant pressure for 40 % of surface important for the life cycles of eel,
key parameter, because interaction water bodies (see sheet ‘SWB pressures’ sturgeon or salmon because migration
between water, morphology, sediments in EEA, 2018e). Most of these pressures is part of their reproductive cycles.
and vegetation creates habitats that stem from physical alteration of river Fish are one of the biological quality
determine the river’s ecological status. channels or of the riparian zone or shore elements assessed in rivers under the
Hydromorphological pressures (2) or from dams, locks and other barriers. Water Framework Directive. Lateral
(2) Hydromorphology is the geomorphological and hydrological characteristic of a water body, which is also a condition for its ecosystem.
Hydromorphological pressures are changes in the natural water body due to the human need to control flow, erosion and floods, as well as to
drainage, river straightening and harbour construction.

PART 2
TABLE 4.3 Summary assessment — hydromorphological pressures
Past trends Europe’s water bodies have been subject to hydromorphological pressures for centuries. Although the
(10-15 years) Water Framework Directive has put in place initatives to reduce these pressures, they continue to affect
40 % of water bodies.
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress is expected as implementation of the Water Framework Directive continues. Full
implementation of policies to restore rivers and put in place alternative flood protection methods, based on
natural water retention measures, will be required to deliver improvements. Climate change may increase the
magnitude and frequency of floods, leading to a greater demand for flood protection. It will also increase the
demand for renewable energy generation, which is contributing to the expansion of hydropower in parts of
Europe, resulting in increased hydromorphological pressures.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the objective of achieving good ecological status for all surface waters by 2020,
 and hydromorphological pressures are expected to continue to affect 40 % of Europe’s surface waters.
Robustness Hydromorphological pressures have been assessed by all EU Member States under the Water Framework
Directive. While each assessment is based on observations and can be considered robust, differences in
approaches make comparisons challenging, and a more detailed and comparable analysis at the European
scale is lacking. The available outlook information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on
expert judgement and assumes that management implemented under EU policies will be effective and lead to
some improvement.
connectivity between the river and its bodies. Relevant measures needed plans, planning tools that support river
floodplain is also of critical importance, to achieve good ecological status or restoration initiatives are in place and
enabling floodplains to retain potential are also considered as part of should ensure that more effort is made
water for natural flood protection that work. to restore Europe’s rivers in the future.
(EEA, forthcoming). As restoration projects often involve
using land differently, it is very important
It is difficult to assess trends in Drivers of change and solutions to involve citizens in the planning
hydromorphological pressures based process. The results are, however,
on information reported under the Awareness is increasing of the often seen as providing considerable
Water Framework Directive because important regulating ecosystem added value, both because the resulting
the categorisation of those pressures services provided by surface waters, improved ecosystem services reduce
has changed between the reporting floodplains and wetlands that have management costs and because of
of the first and second river basin maintained their natural state to a high the recreational opportunities that are
management plans, and no alternative degree. Particularly important is the achieved (Chapter 17).
method exists. However, EU Member absence of barriers to fish migration,
States, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey i.e. longitudinal connectivity, and the
are developing methods for assessing ability of floodplains to retain and filter 4.3.3
hydromorphological status (Kampa water and nutrients, i.e. horizontal Pollution pressures on water
and Bussettini, 2018). At present, connectivity (Box 4.1). Fragmentation and links to human health
55 different assessment methods are in of rivers and of riparian habitats also ►See Table 4.4
use across Europe aiming to evaluate has an impact on invertebrates and
the impacts of hydromorphological mammals. With the introduction of Pollution of water with nutrients and
pressures on the status of water river basin and flood risk management harmful chemicals is of concern across

PART 2
BOX 4.1 Examples of solutions to hydromorphological pressures
Removal of barriers Estonia, the Cohesion Fund project River restoration projects reconnecting
‘Restoration of habitats in Pärnu river rivers and floodplains
B arriers support hydropower

production and water storage,
and they may also help to control
basin’, aims to remove seven or eight
dams on the river and its tributaries
between 2015 and 2023, establishing
Because of the multiple benefits provided
by natural floodplains, European policies
floods. They are, however, considered a 3 000 km network of free‑flowing encourage river basin management or
a hydromorphological pressure under water. In particular, removing the Sindi conservation plans to favour restoration
the Water Framework Directive, and dam, located close to the river mouth, based on natural water retention measures,
they are identified as one of the most will make an important contribution as well as conservation of existing natural
common pressures on rivers in river to increasing spawning habitats. Many floodplains. The need to change approaches
basin management plans. Barriers disrupt barriers are linked to hydropower to flood risk management because of the
the river ecosystem: they are not easily production. In Iceland and Norway, most more uncertain future climate is often an
passable, and they alter flow regimes and electricity is supplied by hydropower underlying motivation; solutions based on
sediment loads. The vast majority are (73 % and 95 %, respectively). natural properties are more cost-effective
small barriers, but the cumulative effects However, producing this energy has than structural measures in the long run (EEA,
of many smaller barriers can be very reduced the salmon population in the 2017a). Natural water retention measures
large. affected streams. According to the refer to initiatives in which natural flood
Norwegian Environment Agency, 23 % of protection is provided at the same time as
Many rivers in Europe have plans to Norway’s salmon rivers have been restoring the natural properties and functions
restore populations of salmon, eel and negatively affected by river regulation of the floodplain, including its connection to
sturgeon, which depend on migration schemes, the vast majority of which are the river. The measures can include structural
to their headwaters for spawning. for producing hydropower (NEA, 2018; changes to the river and floodplain and
Several hundred thousand barriers are Orkustofnun, 2018). Initiatives are in changes that involve managing how land is
found in Europe’s rivers, preventing place to reduce the negative impacts, used within the floodplain (EEA, 2018c). Many
migration. In the past, countries have especially in relation to new projects examples of implemented natural water
implemented measures to make (VRL, 2018). Barriers are also linked retention measures can be found on the
barriers passable for fish or to remove to reservoirs storing water between European Natural Water Retention Measures
them altogether (EEA, 2018b, p. 73). In seasons to support crop production. Platform (NWRM, 2019). ■
Europe. The polluting substances stem way, altering substances and creating orthophosphate associated with industrial
from a range of activities linked to multiyear timelags. Polluted water has and urban waste water pollution are
agricultural, industrial and household an impact on human health and aquatic observed in most of Europe’s surface
use. Emissions to water occur through ecosystems. Faecal contamination from waters (EEA, 2019c; Figure 4.2 and Table
both point source and diffuse pathways. sewage is both unsafe and unpleasant, 4.4). A similar decline is also observed
Point sources refers to emissions that excess nutrients lead to eutrophication, for other industrial emissions (Chapter
have a specific discharge location, which causes major disturbance of 12) and nitrogen surplus has decreased
whereas diffuse emissions have many aquatic ecosystems, and chemicals (Chapter 13). However, concentrations
smaller sources spread over a large that are harmful can, when limit values of nitrates are declining much more
area. Emissions into the atmosphere are are exceeded, be a serious threat to slowly in groundwater and in rivers.
spread, sometimes over large distances, both human and ecosystem health These concentrations are more closely
eventually to be deposited on land or the (Chapter 10). linked to agricultural diffuse pollution.
sea surface (Chapter 8). Such pollutants The second river basin management
can be transferred to rivers, lakes, and Trends in nutrient concentrations plans showed that nitrate was the main
transitional, coastal and marine water as pollutant affecting 18 % of the area of
well as groundwaters. Transformation Declining concentrations of groundwater bodies, although 74 % of
and storage may occur along the biological oxygen demand (BOD) and Europe’s groundwater body area achieved

PART 2
FIGURE 4.2 Trends in 5-day biological oxygen demand (BOD5), orthophosphate and nitrates in rivers, and
concentrations of nitrates in groundwater
% mg NO3/l
120 25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0 0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Orthophosphate (756 stations) Nitrate (806 stations) Nitrate (552 groundwater bodies)
BOD5 (470 stations) Ammonium (783 stations)
Note: Country coverage: EEA-39 (33 member countries and six cooperating countries).
good chemical status (EEA, 2018b and and polybrominated diphenyl ethers
38 %
Table 4.4). (PBDEs), which have been used as
flame retardants. While some priority
substances occur naturally, most arise
Trends in priority substances through human activities. To prevent
of the surface water bodies further harm, their emissions must be
In recent decades, legislation has helped reduced. The use of some of the most
in Europe are in good
ensure reduced emissions of certain toxic substances, such as mercury
hazardous substances (EU, 1976, 2000,
chemical status. and persistent organic pollutants,
2010; EEA, 2018b). Under the Water is heavily restricted, through both
Framework Directive, chemical status European legislation and international
is assessed on a list of 33 ‘priority conventions.
substances’ that pose a significant risk the list include selected existing industrial
to or via the aquatic environment, as chemicals, pesticides, biocides, metals In general, there is better knowledge
set out in the Environmental Quality and other groups such as polyaromatic about priority substances than more
Standards Directive (EU, 2008b). The hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are mainly recently identified contaminants of
substances or groups of substances on produced by burning organic matter, concern (Chapters 5, 10, and 12).

PART 2
MAP 4.2 Country comparison — percentage of water bodies not achieving good chemical status
Canary-50°
Islands (ES) -40° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 70° 60°
°
30° 30°
Percentage of water bodies,
not in good chemical status,
with uPBT, per river basin
60°
district
0%
Azores Islands (PT)
-30°
40°
-30°
Madeira Island (PT)

-20°
100 %
-20°
No data reported 50°°
20°N Guadeloupe and
60°W(FR)
50°
Martinique Islands EEA countries not
implementing WFD
Outside coverage
60°W Notes:
Second river basin
management plans
French Guiana (FR)
uPBT: ubiquitous, persistent,
bioaccumulative and toxic
substances
40°
4 0°
50°
40°
Mayotte Island (FR)

45°
45°
Réunion Island (FR)

55°
30°
55°
30° -10° 0° 10° 0 500 20° 1000 1500 30°
km 40°
Note: Assessment units are river basin districts. Caution is advised when comparing results among Member States, as the results are affected
by the methods Member States have used to collect data and often cannot be compared directly.
Coverage: EU Member States, Norway and Iceland.
Source: EEA (2018d, SWB).
Concentrations in the environment of waters; see also Chapter 10 in this report responsible for most of the failures
many ‘legacy substances’ — those that for a broader discussion of chemicals in to achieve good chemical status: in
are no longer manufactured or used — the environment. particular, mercury, PBDE and PAHs
are likely to continue to decline in water are responsible for causing failure
because their use has been phased Priority substances in water were in a large number of water bodies.
out; however, new substances will assessed as part of the second river Overall, 38 % of Europe’s surface water
emerge, and will need to be assessed basin management plans by comparing bodies achieved good chemical status
and monitored for their risk to humans the concentration of substances with (Map 4.2 and Table 4.4) (see also EEA,
and the environment. A 2018 EEA their environmental quality standards. 2018a). The results, however, need to
report (EEA, 2018a) provides further The assessment showed a relatively be interpreted with some caution. EU
information on chemicals in Europe’s small number of substances that are Member States have chosen different

PART 2
strategies for interpreting the results for high ecological integrity have a higher
mercury in their assessments. Mercury potential for sustainable tourism.
and PBDEs are ubiquitous, meaning that
they are found everywhere, but only Concentrations of some priority
some countries have included them substances have decreased in surface
in their assessments. A subset of four While water quality continues waters as a result of improved emission
of the priority substances and groups to improve, Europe is unlikely controls (Chapter 12). However,
of substances, including mercury, is although countries appear to have
defined by the Environmental Quality
to achieve good chemical good knowledge of emissions, much
Standards Directive as ubiquitous. status for all water bodies of this knowledge does not extend
Their concentrations will decline by 2020. to the European level. The EEA has
only very slowly, and their inclusion found that emissions data, especially
in chemical status under the Water on emissions to water, reported under
Framework Directive may mask the the Water Framework Directive or
trends in status of other substances. to the European Pollutant Release
If these ubiquitous substances are with the considerable investments and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) or to
omitted from the chemical assessment, made in improving urban waste the Water Information System for
only 3 % of Europe’s surface waters water treatment as a consequence Europe (WISE), are incomplete and
fail to achieve good chemical status of the Urban Waste Water Treatment inconsistent, so there is no European-
(EEA, 2018a, 2018e). Directive. There are still differences wide overview (EEA, 2018a).
in the degree of urban waste water
According to the information in the treatment among countries, but they Diffuse pollution remains a problem
second river basin management plans, are getting smaller (EEA, 2017b). The in Europe. It is mostly due to excessive
many of the priority substances listed proportion of the population connected emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus
do not exceed safety thresholds in to urban waste water treatment plants to water and to both historical and
the environment, which suggests in northern European countries has current emissions of mercury to the
that restrictions and emission controls, been above 80 % since 1995, and atmosphere and subsequently surface
in particular, have been effective in more than 70 % of urban waste water waters. Chemicals used as pesticides
preventing these substances from receives tertiary treatment. In central are also recognised as a source of
entering the environment. European countries, connection rates diffuse pollution, although those used
The chemical status of surface have increased since 1995 and are as biocides may reach urban waste
waters under the Water Framework now at 97 %, with about 75 % receiving water treatment plants. In the second
Directive is assessed against a tertiary treatment. The proportion of river basin management plans, Member
relatively short list of historically the population connected to urban States identified that diffuse pollution
important pollutants — the priority waste water treatment in southern, is a significant pressure, affecting 38 %
substances. However, this misses south‑eastern and eastern Europe is of surface water bodies and 35 % of the
the thousands of chemicals in daily generally lower than in other parts area of groundwater bodies (Table 4.4).
use. There is a gap in knowledge at of Europe, but it has increased over The use of nitrogen-based fertilisers in
the European level over whether the last 10 years and levels are now agriculture is a primary cause of diffuse
any of these other substances at about 70 % (EEA, 2017b). In spite of pollution (Chapter 13).
present a significant risk to or via the implementation of urban waste
the aquatic environment, either water treatment, 15 % of surface water In recent decades, Europe has
individually or in combination with bodies fail to achieve good status due undertaken to reduce the use of
other substances (EEA, 2018b). This to point source pollution (see sheet mineral fertilisers in agriculture. As a
discussion is further explored in ‘pressures’ in EEA, 2018e). Europe’s consequence, the agricultural nitrogen
Chapters 10 and 12, and in a 2018 bathing waters have also improved. In surplus in the 28 EU Member States
EEA report (EEA, 2018a). 2017, 95 % of bathing sites had good (EU-28) decreased by 18 % between
and excellent bathing water quality 2000 and 2015 (EEA, 2019a) , but
(EEA, 2019b). Water recreation such as fertiliser application rates remain
Drivers of change and solutions beach holidays, swimming, kayaking, high, especially in those countries
canoeing and rafting are of increasing where agriculture is more intensive.
The declining concentrations of BOD and interest to the European public and In contrast, the phosphate surplus in
nutrients in surface waters are associated require safe bathing water. Areas with the EU-28 increased by 14 % in the

PART 2
TABLE 4.4 Summary assessment — pollution pressures on water and links to human health
Past trends Water quality has improved, although concentrations of nutrients in many places are still high and affect the
(10-15 years) status of waters. Drinking and bathing water quality continues to improve and some hazardous pollutants
have been reduced.
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress in improving the chemical status of surface and groundwater is expected as
implementation of the Water Framework Directive continues. Improvements in urban waste water treatment
and industrial pollution will deliver improvements in pollution control, but diffuse pollution is expected to
remain problematic. It is likely that pressures from newly emerging pollutants and mixtures of chemicals will
be identified.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the objective of achieving good chemical status for all surface and groundwater
bodies by 2020, with diffuse pollution expected to continue to affect 38 % of surface water bodies and 35 %
 of the groundwater body area. It is acknowledged that this result reflects that countries have taken differing
approaches to interpreting the results for ubiquitous substances in their chemical status assessments.
Robustness The assessment presented here is based partly on observations reported to the EEA as WISE-SoE data
flows and partly on information provided as part of the Water Framework Directive reporting. While each
assessment is based on observations and can be considered robust, differences in approaches make
comparisons challenging, and a more detailed and comparable analysis at the European scale is lacking.
The available outlook information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on expert
judgement and assumes that management implemented under EU policies will be effective and lead to
some improvement. Countries have taken differing approaches tow interpreting the results for ubiquitous
substances in their chemical status assessments.
shorter period between the reporting four main sectors: (1) household water
95 %
periods 2008-2011 and 2012-2015 use (14 %); (2) industry and mining
(EC, 2018a). Today, Member States are (18 %); (3) cooling water for electricity
implementing a number of measures, production (28 %); and (4) agriculture
many of which are compulsory in (40 %) (Figure 4.3). Geographically there
nitrate vulnerable zones designated of bathing sites in the EU met are, however, large differences in the
under the Nitrates Directive, both good and excellent bathing sectors using more water. In western
to reduce inputs and to reduce Europe public water supply, cooling
water quality standards in 2017.
the impacts of a potential surplus. water and mining are responsible for the
Those measures include farm‑level majority of water abstraction, whereas
nutrient management, standards for efforts to adapt measures to regional in southern Europe and in Turkey
the timing of fertiliser application, pressures are needed (EC, 2018a). agriculture uses the largest share.
appropriate tillage techniques, the
use of nitrogen‑fixing catch crops, Water is abstracted from surface and
crop rotation and buffer strips (3). 4.3.4 groundwater resources (76 % vs 24 %).
Manure, and slurry storage and surplus Water abstraction and its pressures In total, 89 % of European groundwater
management, as well as reducing on surface and groundwater bodies achieve good quantitative
the phosphate content of animal ►See Table 4.5 status. Overall, water abstraction has
feed are also being implemented. In decreased by 19 % (1990-2015), and
spite of these activities, the European Europe’s water abstraction of 243 000 on average abstraction corresponds
Commission has concluded that further million cubic metres can be split among to 13 % of the renewable freshwater
(3) Buffer strips are uncultivated strips along rivers and streams. They are used extensively across Europe as a response to the Nitrates Directive’s
requirement to reduce pollution. They reduce the movement of sediment, nutrients and pesticides from farmed fields. Their width varies
depending on country and the severity of pollution problems.

PART 2
FIGURE 4.3 Water use in Europe by economic sector and by source
Annual water use by sectors Annual freshwater abstraction by source

(%, in 2015) (%, in 2015)
In Europe, around
Service industries 2 Lakes 1
243 000 million cubic
Households 12 Artificial reservoirs 10
metres of water per year
Mining and quarrying, 18 Groundwater 24
are abstracted for different manufacturing, construction
Rivers 65
sectors. Around 60 % of the Electricity 28
water abstracted is returned Agriculture 40
to the environment, but it

has often been polluted in Seasonal (million m3, in 2015) Seasonal (million m3, in 2015)
the process. Water resources Q1 Q1

Q2
and their uses are unevenly Q2
Q3 Q3
distributed across Europe,
Q4 Q4
leading to large differences
0
0
0
in water stress.
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
0
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Water exploitation by river basin
0% > 40 % Data not available

Note: The water exploitation index
(WEI+) is a measure of water Winter, 2015 Summer, 2015
stress. It measures level of
water scarcity by comparing
water use with the renewable
freshwater resource available.
A WEI+ of above 20 % implies
that a river basin is under stress,
and a WEI+ of more than 40 %
indicates severe stress and clearly
unsustainable resource use. In
summer 2015, 19 % of Europe’s
area experienced water stress.
Source: EEA core set indicator 018: the

use of freshwater resources
(EEA, 2018c).

PART 2
© Chris Happel

PART 2
TABLE 4.5 Summary assessment — water abstraction and its pressures on surface and groundwater
Past trends Water abstraction is decreasing and 89 % of Europe’s groundwater bodies achieve good quantitative status.
(10-15 years)
Outlook to 2030 Continued focus on maintaining and improving the quantitative status of groundwater is expected as
implementation of the Water Framework Directive continues. However, water stress remains a concern in
some regions and the future availability of water will be affected by climate change.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the objective of achieving good quantitative status of all groundwater bodies by
 2020. Water abstraction currently exceeds 20 % of the renewable freshwater resource in 19 % of Europe’s area.
Robustness Good quantitative status is based on EU Member State assessments. While each assessment is based on
observations and can be considered robust, differences in approaches make comparisons challenging. Water
abstraction is recorded by Member States, whereas water use is attributed to sectors using a model. Outlook
information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on expert judgement and assumes that
management implemented under EU policies will be effective and lead to some improvement.
resource (Table 4.5). These numbers, Europe is thought to have adequate
89 %
however, mask large geographical water resources, but water scarcity and
variations. Increasingly, in countries with drought is no longer uncommon. In
limited freshwater resources, such as Europe, water scarcity can arise both as
Cyprus, Malta, and Spain, freshwater is a consequence of the water demand for
supplied by desalinating seawater. The of groundwater bodies in the human activities and as a consequence
milestone set in the EU Roadmap to a EU are in good quantitative of reduced meteorological inputs.
resource efficient Europe, namely that Water scarcity is becoming increasingly
status.
water abstraction should stay below 20 % frequent and widespread in Europe, and
of available renewable water resources it is expected to get worse as changing
in Europe, was not achieved in 36 river seasonality precipitation decreases and
basins, corresponding to 19 % of Europe’s is less than the amount abstracted temperatures increase in response to
territory, in summer 2015. Consequently, because some water is returned to the a changing climate. This will also make
around 30 % of the European population environment, water scarcity still occurs in the environmental pressures of water
was exposed to water scarcity in parts of Europe, both in the summer and abstraction worse, and the demand
summer 2015 compared with 20 % in in the winter (Figure 4.3). The underlying to better understand and manage the
2014 (EEA, 2018c). In addition, most causes of water scarcity, expressed by the climate-water‑ecosystem‑agriculture
of the 11 % of groundwater bodies water exploitation index, differ: in western nexus is likely to increase in the future.
that do not achieve good quantitative Europe it is primarily linked to cooling
status are found in Cyprus, Malta, and water needed for energy production
Spain, although in the United Kingdom and industry; in southern Europe water 4.4
good groundwater quantitative status scarcity is linked to agriculture. Responses and prospects of
is not reached for more than 50 % of meeting agreed targets and
groundwater bodies for the Thames and Climate change projections suggest objectives
Anglian districts (EEA, 2018d, groundwater that Europe will face changes in the
quantitative status). In these areas more temperature of water and in precipitation Enough water of good quality is a
than 20 % of the renewable resource may in the future (Chapter 7). Dry parts of fundamental objective of Europe’s
be used. Europe will become drier, wet parts will environmental policy as well as
become wetter, and the seasonality and for achieving the UN Sustainable
Water storage and abstraction intensity of precipitation may change. Development Goals. In Europe this is
places considerable pressure on the Flood frequencies could change in supported through the comprehensive
environment. While the water used response to altered precipitation patterns. policy framework which includes

PART 2
setting legally binding objectives for One of the major successes for water
Europe’s water and for managing and quality has been the reduction of nutrient,
reducing environmental pressures from certain hazardous substance and
hydromorphology, pollution and water microbial pollution in rivers, lakes, and
abstraction. This policy framework will transitional and coastal waters following
also support the delivery of Europe’s Freshwaters remain the implementation of urban waste
contribution to SDG 6 on water. water treatment, industrial emission
significantly affected by diffuse
controls and restrictions of chemicals.
In 2015, the second cycle of developing pollution, hydromorphological Although the Urban Waste Water
river basin management plans was changes and water Treatment Directive in particular is still
finalised. Subsequently, the results were abstraction. not fully implemented in all countries, its
reported to the EU, and a comprehensive effectiveness is clear. Where urban waste
analysis of these results is presented in a water treatment has been implemented,
2018 EEA report (EEA, 2018b). A parallel concentrations of nutrients, hazardous
process for the reporting of the first Already, the process of developing substances and microbial pollution in
flood risk management plans under the river basin management plans has water have been reduced. This also
Floods Directive has also taken place provided a better understanding of supports achieving improved drinking
(EC, 2019). The European Commission the status, the pressures causing water and bathing water quality, which
is also developing a proposal for the failure to achieve good status, and the in return support a high level of human
Drinking Water Directive, to secure better measures implemented to generate health across Europe. Options for
protection of human health and to meet improvement. Member States have increased reuse of urban waste water
SDG 6, and an evaluation of the Urban implemented measures that improve are being considered by the European
Waste Water Treatment Directive, to water quality and reduce pressures Commission (EC, 2018b). The EU supports
align it with other policies to realise the on hydromorphology. This knowledge the development of drinking water,
potential for energy savings. is essential for achieving future urban waste water treatment and flood
improvements. protection infrastructure through the
The Water Framework Directive and European Regional Development Fund
the Floods Directive operate on the The analysis of the river basin and the Cohesion Fund.
scale of river basins. Water within a management plans shows that Europe is
river basin is connected, and hence on the way to achieving good status for In contrast, it has proven much more
any decision that influences water water, but it also shows that the target complex to reduce diffuse pollution. The
quantity or quality in one part of the of achieving good status for water in Nitrates Directive supports reducing
district can influence water in another 2015 was not achieved. An initial analysis diffuse nutrient pollution, which is one
part. Managing water quality and of flood risk management plans also of the most commonly cited pressures
quantity requires detailed knowledge of shows that flood risk in Europe is being on Europe’s surface and groundwater
water abstraction, land use and other reduced and that many countries have bodies. In areas designated as nitrate
pressures on the river basin scale. This plans for implementing natural water vulnerable zones, the Nitrates Directive
knowledge is being developed as part retention measures that will support requires management of fertiliser use,
of the implementation of river basin hydromorphological improvements. and of manure and slurry storage and
management plans under the Water use, with the aim of reducing emissions.
Framework Directive and flood risk In recent decades, legislation has helped Efforts have, however, not yet been
management plans under the Floods to ensure reduced emissions of certain enough to sufficiently reduce diffuse
Directive. It is on this scale that effective hazardous substances (Section 4.4.3). pollution. Reducing diffuse pollution is
solutions for water management can However, there is a very large number of a major societal challenge. It involves
be found for Europe’s 110 000 water chemicals in use (Chapter 10) and only reducing atmospheric pollution and
bodies distributed across 180 river a few are listed as priority substances pollution from multiple small sources,
basins. River basin management under the Water Framework Directive. and it applies to both nutrients and
plans already encompass transitional The watch list, established under the hazardous substances. Altering
and coastal waters; they provide an Priority Substances Directive (EU, 2013b), agricultural diffuse pollution requires
effective means of regulating land- provides a mechanism for gathering steps to be taken at farm level to reduce
based pollution of the sea, especially information on harmful substances for pollution, which requires both farm-level
with regard to nutrient and hazardous which information on concentrations in investments and sometimes accepting
substance pollution. the aquatic environment is lacking. reduced crop yields (Chapter 16). The new

PART 2
CAP reform, which is currently being Furthermore, the freshwater policy supporting the Water Framework
negotiated between the European framework emphasises the integrated Directive, and they need to be adapted to
Commission, Council and Parliament, role of freshwater in achieving both agricultural water abstraction to ensure
contains several elements that could biodiversity and marine environmental efficiency gains such as those that can be
support achieving better progress to policy goals. Improving the status of obtained through optimising irrigation.
this end. For example, the proposed water will also support achieving good It is also important to have a strategy in
CAP reform requires EU Member conservation status of species and place for keeping saved water for the
States to increase their ambition to habitats under the Habitats and Birds environment, rather than for increasing
achieve the objectives of the Water Directives (EEC, 1979, 1992) and the good agricultural production. In parts of Europe,
Framework and Nitrates Directives environmental status of marine waters leakages from the public water supply
compared with the 2014‑2020 under the Marine Strategy Framework system can be as much as 30 %, and
programming period, including by Directive (EU, 2008a), especially for reducing these is an obvious efficiency
stimulating national coordination descriptors of eutrophication and gain. As European policymakers strive to
with environmental authorities. hazardous substances. Many of the develop a sustainable strategy for water
However, the final details of the new habitats and species protected under the management, the development of new
CAP could still change considerably Habitats and Birds Directives depend on reservoirs or transfer of water between
(Chapter 13). the adequate availability of water and on basins is only in line with the Water
good ecological and chemical status of Framework Directive if their ecological
The EU Blueprint to safeguard surface waters. For example, 39 floodplain status has not deteriorated (EU, 2000,
Europe’s water resources (EC, 2012) habitats and 14 bog, mire and fen habitats Article 4.7). Instead, drought management
points to the insufficient use of are listed in Annex I of the Habitats strategies need to be developed, as
economic instruments as one of Directive. In many cases, the availability part of river basin management and in
several reasons for management of surface- or groundwater is critical to response to climate change.
problems not being adequately achieving good conservation status. Thus,
addressed. The fitness check of a clear link exists between the objectives Projected climate change is likely to
the Water Framework and Floods of those directives. Similarly nutrient significantly affect water temperatures
Directives, currently undertaken and chemical pollution in the marine and quantities. Southern Europe is likely
by the European Commission, environment often stems from land- to struggle more with water scarcity
includes the objective of enabling a based activities that need to be managed and drought issues in the coming years,
discussion with all stakeholders. Input through river basin management plans whereas precipitation is projected to
will encompass how the directives under the Water Framework Directive. increase in northern Europe. Thus,
have brought about changes in The Marine Strategy Framework Directive protecting people and their economic
the management of water and common implementation strategy and cultural assets from flooding will
improvements in the state of water has been very explicit on the need to continue to be of major importance.
bodies and in the strategies to reduce develop this link to avoid having separate Improved flood risk management, as
the risk of flooding across the EU. processes for the two directives, and this required by the Floods Directive, in
The fitness check tackles both the was further supported by Commission combination with green infrastructure
functioning and the interactions of Decision (EU) 2017/848 on methodological and nature-based solutions (Chapter 17),
the directives, as well as the costs and standards (EU, 2017). However, while which both reduce flood risk and improve
benefits that the various stakeholders the requirements to link the directives ecosystems, is a tool for achieving
attach to them. are in place, and some coordination is benefits and policy objectives for both
likely to occur within Member States, the people and nature. However, it remains
Chemical pollution remains an issue. explicit outcome of this activity is not unclear whether adaptation is happening
Although legacy contaminants are fully known at the European level. There fast enough to ensure sufficient capacity
declining, little is known about new are few mechanisms in place to insist on to cope with future climatic changes.
substances. The large number of developing cross-policy strategies. As water has a profound influence on
potentially hazardous chemicals ecosystems, it will become increasingly
makes monitoring programmes As it is anticipated that climate change critical to address and monitor the
across Europe highly variable, impacts will increase towards 2030, water climate‑water‑ecosystem-agriculture
and hence it is difficult to make a will also be affected, placing an additional nexus (Chapter 16), including in the
consistent assessment of chemical demand on effective water management light of other uses. It would be a missed
pollution on the European scale tools. Pricing and metering of household opportunity for Europe not to consider
(Chapter 10). water are important instruments the full extent of these links.

05.
Land and soil
2
© Kayhan Guc, Sustainably Yours/EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• Land and its soils are the • Land recycling accounts for only • European policy aims to develop
foundation for producing food, feed 13 % of urban developments in the EU. the bioeconomy but while new uses
and other ecosystem services such as The EU 2050 target of no net land take for biomass and increasing food
regulating water quality and quantity. is unlikely to be met unless annual and fodder consumption require
Ecosystem services related to land use rates of land take are further reduced increasing agricultural output, land
are critical for Europe’s economy and and/or land recycling is increased. for agricultural use has decreased.
quality of life. Competition for land and This leads to growing pressures on
intensive land use affects the condition • Soil degradation is not well the available agricultural land and soil
of soils and ecosystems, altering their monitored, and often hidden, but it is resources which are exacerbated by
capacity to provide these services. It widespread and diverse. Intensive land the impacts of climate change.
also reduces landscape and species management leads to negative impacts
diversity. on soil biodiversity, which is the key • The lack of a comprehensive
driver of terrestrial ecosystems’ carbon and coherent policy framework for
• Land take and soil sealing continue, and nutrient cycling. There is increasing protecting Europe’s land and soil
predominantly at the expense evidence that land and soil degradation resources is a key gap that reduces the
of agricultural land, reducing its have major economic consequences, effectiveness of the existing incentives
production potential. While the annual whereas the cost of preventing damage and measures and may limit Europe’s
rate of land take and consequent is significantly lower. ability to achieve future objectives
habitat loss has gradually slowed, related to development of green
ecosystems are under pressure from infrastructure and the bioeconomy.
fragmentation of peri-urban and rural
landscapes.

objectives/targets
Past trends (10-15 years) Outlook to 2030 2020 2050
Urbanisation and land use by agriculture Deteriorating trends Deteriorating developments

 Not on track
and forestry dominate dominate
Soil condition Deteriorating trends Deteriorating developments

 Not on track
dominate dominate
explained in Section 5.3, Key trends and outlooks (Tables 5.2 and 5.4).
4 par A
PART 2
05.
Land and soil
5.1 gradual decline in the levels of (soil)

Scope of the theme biodiversity (Schneiders et al., 2012;
Tsiafouli et al., 2015).
Productive land and fertile soil are
part of our shared natural capital. The
management of land by owners and Land-use management 5.2
users is therefore fundamental for is vital for sustainable Policy context
sustainable resource use and delivery
resource use and delivery
of ecosystem services. These services Prevention and restoration of land and
include the provision of food, nutrient
of ecosystem services. soil degradation are addressed broadly
cycling, supporting all terrestrial in the European policy framework.
biodiversity, water regulation and Table 5.1 presents an overview of
purification, and mitigating climate selected relevant policy targets and
change by carbon sequestration. While objectives. More details on policies
the demand for food and the pressures from climate change. Shifting spring related to agriculture and forestry are
on land and soil are increasing phenology, droughts, fires, storms available in Chapter 13.
globally, biodiversity is visibly declining and floods impact the condition of
(UNEP, 2014; IPBES, 2018). ecosystems and the food chain. Regarding land and soil policies,
binding targets are lacking at European
Current land use practices and A complex pattern of pressures results level. The Seventh Environment
observed land cover changes put from socio-economic drivers, expressed Action Programme (7th EAP) and
significant pressure on the land system as the need for settlements, transport, the EU Roadmap to a resource
(EC DG AGRI, 2015; EEA, 2018c). The clean water, food and fibre production, efficient Europe promote ‘no net land
condition of land and soils is affected by and tourism. Future scenarios and take’ in the EU by 2050, aiming to
loss of productive land because of land projections point to intensification of mitigate the effect of urban sprawl.
take and the type and intensity of land agriculture in northern and western ‘No net land take’ supports the land
management. Europe’s soils suffer from Europe and extensification and degradation neutrality target of the
sealing, erosion, compaction, pollution, abandonment in the Mediterranean United Nations Convention to Combat
salinisation and carbon loss. Additional region (Holman et al., 2017). More Desertification (UNCCD), aiming to
pressure on the land system comes intensive land use will lead to a maintain the amount and quality of
SOER 2020/Land and soil 115

PART 2
Land and soil
EU policies help to achieve no net land take by 2050 7th EAP (EU) 2050 Non-binding
commitments
Reduce soil erosion, increase soil organic matter, and Roadmap to a resource efficient 2020/2050
promote remedial work on contaminated sites Europe (EU)
Prevent further degradation of soil, preserve its Thematic strategy on the protection N/A Non-binding
functions and restore degraded soil of soil commitment
Integrate soil protection into relevant EU policies
Restore at least 15 % of degraded ecosystems; better EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 2020 Non-binding
integrate biodiversity into agriculture and forestry commitments
Targets 2.4 (food security), 3.9 (soil pollution), Global policies: SDGs, United 2030 Non-binding
15.2 (sustainable agricultural and forest management), Nations Convention to Combat commitments
and 15.3 (land degradation neutrality) Desertification
Combat desertification and mitigate the effects of

drought in countries experiencing serious drought
and/or desertification
Sustainable management of natural resources and Common agricultural policy (CAP) N/A Non-binding
climate action: to ensure the long-term sustainability commitments
and potential of EU agriculture by safeguarding the
natural resources on which agricultural production
depends
Ensure the monitoring of negative impacts of air National Emission Ceilings Directive 2030 Binding
pollution upon ecosystems (Article 9) (includes soils) (Article 9) commitment
Identify and assess sites contaminated by mercury, Minamata Convention on Mercury N/A Non-binding
and address risks (includes soil contamination) (Article 15) commitment
Ensure that emissions do not exceed removals in the LULUCF regulation (2018/841) 2025, 2030 Binding
LULUCF sector (no-debit rule) commitment
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; LULUCF, land use, land use change and forestry; SDGs, Sustainable Development
Goals; N/A, non-applicable.
land resources. Land degradation The EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 calls According to a study by Frelih-Larsen
neutrality is promoted by Target 15.3 for restoring at least 15 % of degraded et al. (2017), 671 policy instruments
of the UN Sustainable Development ecosystems in the EU and to expand related to soil protection exist in
Goals (SDGs), which, by 2030, strives the use of green infrastructure, e.g. to the 28 EU Member States (EU-28),
to combat desertification and to help overcome land fragmentation. and 45 % of them are linked to EU
restore degraded land and soil. SDG 2 The UN Resolution on Soil Pollution policies. For example, the National
(to eliminate hunger) connects soils, (UNEP, 2017) requests countries to set Emission Ceilings Directive aims to
food production and healthy living. norms and standards to prevent, reduce reduce the impact of emissions of
Land and soils are also bound to and manage soil pollution. acidifying substances (Chapter 8); the
goals that address poverty reduction Industrial Emissions Directive seeks to
(SDG 1), health and well-being through Although specific soil protection prevent emissions from entering the
reduced pollution (SDG 3), access to legislation is not in place in the EU, the soil (Chapter 12); several directives
clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), the 2006 soil thematic strategy promotes target avoiding soil contamination
environmental impact of urban sprawl the inclusion of soil protection from waste disposal and chemicals
(SDG 11) and climate change (SDG 13). measures in various policy areas. (Chapters 9 and 10); and the Water
116 SOER 2020/Land and soil

PART 2
Framework Directive seeks to due to conversion to industrial sites and
7.1 %
identify and estimate water pollution in Ireland due to afforestation. Forests
originating from soils (Chapter 4). and transitional woodlands (less than
Nevertheless, binding instruments 0.1 % change) and natural grassland
and targets are mostly lacking, and (less than 0.3 % change) had most stable
not all soil threats and soil functions increase in the area of land cover extents in Europe between
are covered. artificial surfaces between 2000 and 2018.
2000 and 2018.

5.3 5.3.2
Key trends and outlooks Urban expansion and land use
change
5.3.1
Land cover change the period 2000-2018 show that the area Seventy-two per cent of Europe’s
of artificial surfaces has changed the population lives in cities, towns and
Land use modifies the quality and most, increasing by 7.1 % (Figure 5.1). suburbs (Dijkstra et al., 2016). Urban
quantity of ecosystem services Although the latest period, 2012-2018, agglomerations in the EU are expected
(EEA, 2018c) by conditioning the had the lowest increase, during the to grow by 11 % (corresponding to
potential of land and soil to provide entire period 2000-2018, 921 km²/year of 34 million people) by 2050 (Kompil et al.,
these services. Unsustainable land was turned into artificial surfaces. 2015), and artificial surfaces are
agricultural and forestry practices, predicted to increase by 0.71 % by 2050,
urban expansion and climate While the areas of arable land and leading to increasing land take and
change are the main drivers of permanent crops became smaller fragmentation (Lavalle and Barbosa,
land degradation, which according during the period 2000-2018 (by 0.5 %, 2015; Lavalle and Vallecillo, 2015). Urban
to the recent Intergovernmental 402 km²/year), in 2012-2018 there expansion is accompanied by a greater
Science‑Policy Platform on Biodiversity was no significant change in their need for infrastructure (transport, water,
and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) report extents. Firstly, the sprawl of economic waste and electricity), which decreases
(Scholes et al., 2018) have already and commercial sites decreased the long-term availability of productive
resulted in loss of ecosystem services substantially in several countries land resources. Loss of fertile land
in many parts of the world. Accounting (-91 % in Spain, -45 % in Germany, caused by urban development decreases
for the changes in land stocks, and for -35 % in France). Secondly, withdrawal the potential of land to produce
the processes driving these changes, from farming activities decreased bio‑based materials and fuels to support
may shed light on some pressures on (-87 % in Hungary) and so did the a low-carbon bioeconomy.
Europe’s land use (see the interactive conversion from arable land into
land accounts viewer (1)) that are non-tilled agricultural land (-97 %
impacting ecosystem services and our in Germany, -93 % in Czechia, Land take
natural capital. -79 % in Hungary). The small decrease
in pastures and mosaic farmland mainly Land take is the process in which
The 2018 mapping of Europe’s arose from a few countries, such as urban areas and sealed surfaces
land cover by the Copernicus Land in Ireland as a result of afforestation occupy agricultural, forest or other
Monitoring Service, recorded in the and in France, Germany and Spain as a semi‑natural and natural areas
Corine Land Cover (2) data sets, indicates result of sprawl of urban and industrial (EEA, 2017). The increase in artificial
that the proportion of Europe’s main areas. The loss of wetlands amounted to surfaces often impairs or disrupts
land cover types are relatively stable (e.g. around 1 % over the last two decades. valuable ecological functions of soils
25.1 % arable land and permanent crops, During 2012‑2018 the most prominent such as biomass provision, acting as
16.6 % pastures, 34.4 % forests in the decline was observed in Romania and soil biodiversity and a soil carbon pool,
EEA’s member countries and cooperating Finland due to conversion to agriculture, or water infiltration potential. This
countries). The long-term changes over to a lesser extent in the United Kingdom contributes to negative climate change
(1) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/land-cover-and-change-statistics
(2) https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover

PART 2
FIGURE 5.1 Change in six major land cover types in the EEA-39 during the period 2000-2018
km /year
2
Artificial surfaces Arable land and Pastures and mosaic Forests and Natural grassland, Wetlands
permanent crops farmland transitional heathland
woodland shrub sclerophylous
vegetation
1 200 2.78
2.48
1 000
800 1.82
600
400
0.05
200 0.03
0.04
0
0.00 -0.07
-0.29
-200
-0.22
-0.08 -0.35 -0.30
-400 -0.20
-0.25
-600 -0.21 -0.29
-0.27
-800
% of
EEA-39 4.3 25.1 16.6 34.4 8.5 2.5
(2018)
Change
2000-2018 16 577 km2 -7 228 km2 -7 289 km2 69 km2 -467 km2 -4 335 km2
Changes in % of the value in 2000

2000-2006 2006-2012 2012-2018
Note: Open spaces and water bodies are not shown, which is why the percentages do not add up to 100 %.
Source: EEA.
impacts by decreasing the potential for Switzerland, the eastern part of Germany from 922 km²/year in the period
carbon storage and sequestration or or the south of France (Colsaet et al., 2000-2006 to 440 km²/year in the
increasing surface run-off during flooding 2018). In some cases, artificial land period 2012‑2018 (see the interactive
(EC, 2014; Edenhofer et al., 2011). is returned to other land categories Land take data viewer (3)). During
(recultivation). The balance between the period 2000-2018, land take
Population and income growth have taken and recultivated land is net land concentrated around larger urban
been widely reported to drive land take take — the concept behind the EU’s ‘no agglomerations (Map 5.1), with 80 %
(Chapter 1), yet this relationship varies net land take’ target (Map 5.1). of land taken at the expense of arable
greatly across and within countries. land and permanent crops (50 %) and
In most developed countries, the demand Calculated from the Corine Land Cover of pastures and mosaic farmlands
for urbanised land grows faster than data set, annual net land take (see (almost 30 %). Nevertheless, while
the population, or grows even without definition in EEA (forthcoming (a))) in that period some land was
additional population, for example in in the EU-28 continually decreased recultivated in the EU-28, 11 times
(3) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/land-take-and-net-land

PART 2
MAP 5.1 Spatial pattern of net land take in the EEA-39 in the period 2000-2018
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
0°
Spatial pattern of net land
take in the EEA-39 in the
period 2000-2018
Km2
<0
0
0.001-0.5
60°
0.5-2
>2
Outside coverage
50
0
50°
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km

0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Source: EEA.
more land was taken (14 049 km² land Land recycling data viewer (5) — only
take vs 1 269 km² recultivated land). Loss of fertile land to urban 13 % of urban land development
Within functional urban areas (cities addressed the reuse of land in the
and their commuting zones) land
development reduces the period 2006-2012 (EEA, 2018b).
recycling, the reuse of abandoned, potential to produce bio-based
vacant or underused urban land, is materials and fuels to support Figure 5.2 presents land take in the
measured using the Copernicus Urban a low-carbon bioeconomy. EEA-39 during the period 2012-2018, as
Atlas (4) data set. Land recycling is the share of the country’s area, which
still low in most countries (see the allows comparison of countries of
(4) https://land.copernicus.eu/local/urban-atlas
(5) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/land-recycling

PART 2
FIGURE 5.2 Country comparison — land take and land recultivation in the EEA-39 in the period 2012-2018
(as a share of the country’s area)
m²/km2
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
500
1 000
M Cr kia
N nia
te tia
rt ia
Au gro
un ce
ia
ov a
Cz tria
SC um
H G nia
Fi den
er in
go e
Al via
ta
S na
a
m ia
en in
m
Fr hia
te nia
ng s
ch do y
bo s
M rm y
te C urg
U Bel rk
Ire ay
th ly
Lu her key
Po 44)
Sw and
La d
Es gal
Sl land
Bu and
N Tu nd
Sl ani
Ki ru
m d
ze ec
Li ace an
ni
th Ge gar
Po an
ar
an
Ro erb
itz Spa
Li Ita
D ste
al
do
an
a
on oa
xe lan
w
vi
a
t
o
ba
ec
ne
N gi
la
s
d yp
u
er re
12
M
et r
lg
e
ov
u
or
el
nl
t
l
n
Ic
H
Sw
er
ni
d
or
an
U
nd
N
ia
(u
sn
vo
Bo
so
Ko
Land take 2012-2018 Recultivation 2012-2018
Note: Kosovo under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99.
Source: EEA.
different sizes. Land take was highest Landscape fragmentation can be

in Malta, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, A 2.6 % increase in land measured as the number of continuous,
Luxembourg and the Netherlands. The unfragmented areas (i.e. meshes)
fragmentation occurred in the
large proportion of land take in Malta per 1 000 km2 (Moser et al., 2007;
was mainly due to mining and urban EEA-39 territory between 2012 EEA, 2018d). It increased by 6.2 % in
sprawl. In the United Kingdom, Cyprus and 2015, compared to the EEA-39 territory (8) between 2009
and Luxembourg, the main drivers were a 6.2 % increase in the and 2012 but slowed down to a 2.6 %
industrial and commercial activities increase in the period 2012-2015 (EEA,
period 2009-2012.
and construction sites, the latter being forthcoming (b)). Compared with 2009,
the main reason in the Netherlands in 2015 the most rapid increase in
as well. Whereas in Malta there was fragmentation was observed in Poland
no recultivation, and in Cyprus there (18 %) due to construction of motorways.
was very little, in the Netherlands, isolated fragments, leading to habitat Bulgaria, Greece and Hungary also
Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, fragmentation. Fragmentation often showed rapid increases in fragmentation
together with Kosovo (6), recultivation jeopardises the provision of many pressure (around 14 %). In absolute
was the highest in the EEA-39 (see the ecosystem services and affects the terms, indicating the highest density
interactive Land take data viewer (7)). stability and resilience of habitats. of meshes per 1 000 km2, Switzerland
Although the EU biodiversity strategy and the Benelux states became the
to 2020 has a target to ‘restore at most fragmented in Europe (Map 5.2).
Landscape fragmentation least 15 % of degraded ecosystems In both measurement periods, mostly
in the Union and to expand the use uninhabited areas and dispersed rural
The expansion of urban areas and of Green Infrastructure’, there are areas became more fragmented (more
transport networks transforms large only a few signs that pressure of land than a 5 % increase); these are areas
habitat patches into smaller, more fragmentation has reached its peak. with a relatively higher potential to
(6) Under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99.

(7) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/land-take-and-net-land
(8) Excluding Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Iceland, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey because of poor data
coverage for transport infrastructure elements for this period.

PART 2
MAP 5.2 Increase in landscape fragmentation in Europe between 2009 and 2015
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
Fragmentation increase in
Europe during 2009-2015
Percentage of 2009 values
No changes
<2
2-5
60°
5-10
10-20
20-50
> 50
50°
No data
Outside coverage
50°
40°
40°
30°
-20° Canary Is. -30° Azores Is.
30°
40°
30°
Madeira Is. 20° 0 500 30° 1 000 1 500 km 40°

0° 10°
Note: Landscape fragmentation as a result of an expansion in urban and transport infrastructure is monitored using the Copernicus
Imperviousness (9) and the TomTom Multinet EUR (reference years: 2009, 2012, 2015) road network data sets (10). Data for Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Iceland, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey are not available.
Source: EEA.
(9) Under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99.

(10) Excluding Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Iceland, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey because of poor data
coverage for transport infrastructure elements for this period

PART 2
provide ecosystem services because of extensive livestock farming is given

their lower degrees of urbanisation. Urban land take continues, up because of land abandonment or
through conversion to cropland or
consuming mostly agricultural
Fragmentation within Natura 2000 increased fertilisation and mowing
sites increased by 5.9 % in the period
land. There is however a frequencies. The decline in grassland
2009-2012 and slowed down to a slowing trend in urbanisation areas has negative consequences for
1.6 % increase in the period 2012-2015 and the expansion of transport pollinators and other insects as well
(EEA, forthcoming (b)). Urban and road as for birds (Assandri et al., 2019)
infrastructure.
infrastructure expansion may occur (Chapter 3). Semi-natural grasslands
in Natura 2000 sites — depending on, are a core component of high nature
if necessary, an assessment of their value farmland in Europe, representing
impacts in accordance with Article 6 around 30 % of the EU’s agricultural
of the EU Habitats Directive. This and storing and filtering water and land (Paracchini et al., 2008). High
explains why fragmentation pressure nutrients. nature value farmland exemplifies the
was observed in the sites despite pressures on agro-ecosystems from
their protected status. Nevertheless, According to the Copernicus Corine agricultural intensification as well as
in all EU-28 countries, the increase in Land Cover data sets (11), during the land abandonment (e.g. Henle et al.,
fragmentation was lower within Natura period 2000-2018, the largest losses 2008; Renwick et al., 2013).
2000 sites than in areas not protected of arable land and permanent crops
by the EU nature directives. were observed in Czechia, Hungary, The forested area in Europe has
the interior of Spain and southern been largely stable over the last
Portugal (Map 5.3). While in Hungary two decades, and it only expanded
5.3.3 and Portugal the main reason was because of afforestation programmes
Land use by agriculture and forestry withdrawal of farming and subsequent in some European countries and
►See Table 5.2 woodland creation, in Czechia the main through spontaneous regeneration
driver was the extension of non-tilled on abandoned agricultural land.
Sectoral trends (Chapter 13) and high agricultural land and pastures (see the Changes in forest land cover are
societal demand for agriculture and interactive Land accounts viewer (12)). now locally concentrated in a few
forestry outputs lead to pressures In central Spain, the increase in European countries (Forest Europe,
on land and soil. This has a range of construction and industrial sites was 2015). Despite the stable area and
negative environmental impacts, such the main cause. The largest gains were sustainable use of timber resources,
as loss of biodiversity (Chapter 3), observed in northern Portugal, the forest ecosystems are subject to
eutrophication pressures in freshwater Baltic countries (in particular Latvia) pressures (Section 13.4.2 in Chapter 13)
ecosystems (Chapter 4) or air pollution and central Finland. While in Latvia and and changes in their condition, which
(Chapter 8). Loss of arable land due Lithuania arable land was created by raises concern over their long-term
to, for example, land abandonment converting pastures, in central Finland stability and health (EEA, 2016, 2018a).
in many cases causes loss of habitats the gains were due to forest conversion. Although the area of protected forests
for farmland species (Chapter 3). At has slightly increased in the EEA-39
the same time droughts, forest fires Grasslands provide important (EEA, 2019), the fragmentation of
and floods are increasing threats, ecosystem services, such as food forests increased by 8 % between 2009
in particular in southern Europe. provision, enjoyment of landscapes, and 2015 (EEA, forthcoming (b)). In
Sustainable management of our land storage of soil carbon, erosion eastern and southern Europe (Bulgaria,
and soil resources helps to maintain control and flood regulation. They Croatia, Greece, Hungary, and Poland),
agricultural and forest productivity are among the most species-rich the increase in fragmentation of forests
(e.g. Brady et al., 2015) while improving vegetation types in Europe with up to and woodlands was more than 15 %,
the potential of land and soils as a 80 plant species/m2 (Silva et al., 2008). and illegal logging is increasingly
carbon sink, supporting biodiversity Grasslands are generally lost when reported (e.g. in the Carpathian region).
(11) https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover
(12) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/land-cover-and-change-statistics

PART 2
MAP 5.3 Arable land and permanent crop losses and gains during the period 2000-2018
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
0°
Arable land and permanent
crops gains and losses
between 2000 - 2018
ha/km2
Loss ≥ 5
Loss 2-5
Loss < 2
60°
0 (No change)
Gain ≤ 2
Gain > 2
50°
50°
Outside coverage
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1000 1500 km

0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Source: EEA.

PART 2
TABLE 5.2 Summary assessment — urbanisation and land use by agriculture and forestry
Past trends Europe’s land resources are exposed to intensive use at an accelerated rate. Land take continues, mostly
(10-15 years) at the expense of agricultural areas, although the yearly rate shows a tendency to slow down. The rate
of reuse of developed land remains low. Landscape fragmentation has increased, impacting mostly
uninhabited or dispersed rural areas and suburbs — areas with relatively greater potential to supply
ecosystem services.
Outlook to 2030 Land take and resulting landscape fragmentation are projected to increase in forthcoming decades. Farming is
likely to retreat further from marginal, biodiversity-rich areas and the intensive use of productive farmland is
likely to increase, impacting the quality and ecosystem services of agricultural areas. Logging and consumption
of wood for fuel will increase, which, together with increasing droughts, fires and storms, is expected to reduce
forest ecosystem services.
2050 Europe is at risk of not meeting the 7th EAP objective of managing land sustainably and reaching no net land
take by 2050. However, slowing trends in the expansion of urban and transport infrastructure areas indicate
 that, if appropriate measures are taken, the targets could be reached. The increase in landscape fragmentation
is lower within and in the areas surrounding Natura 2000 sites, hence protection policies seem to be effective in
partially reaching the target set by the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 to restore 15 % of degraded ecosystems.
Robustness Data are based on regular and quantitative inventories of the Copernicus Corine Land Cover, Urban Atlas and
Imperviousness data sets, using medium- and high-resolution remote sensing images. Interpretation and
calibration are harmonised and quality assured and controlled by third party experts. While data quality is
subject to sensor performance and weather impacts, and derived data still depend on human interpretation,
remote sensing is the only tool that offers standardised and repeatable measurements on high spatial and
temporal resolutions, at a large spatial scale and with continental to global coverage. The assessment of the
outlook for and prospects of meeting policy objectives relies on models and on expert judgement.
Forest Europe (2015) reports that about increase to maximise the provision of
8 % of the forest area is intensively biomass either from Europe’s forests or
managed plantations. Intensive by importing more biomass (e.g. wood
management operations involve pellets from North America).
clear-cutting, skidding damage to
remaining trees and soil compaction. Competition for land, Climate change, as well as economic
A study by Schelhass et al. (2018) unsustainable practices and and technological change, will continue
underlines that little is known about to drive change in agricultural land
harvesting processes in European
pollution affect soil quality. management in the coming decades.
forests. The current fellings/growth Agricultural productivity in southern
ratio is approximately 60-65 % of the Europe will be particularly affected, and
annual forest increment harvested. this is likely to involve a further retreat
Recent analysis of the wood resource of farming from marginal but often
balance (Camia et al., 2018) shows that carbon accounting (land use, land biodiversity-rich areas as well as intensive
this ratio is expected to be about 12 % use change and forestry, LULUCF) use of productive farmland in central,
larger as a result of underestimation of will influence forest management. western and northern Europe (Holman
reported removals. Energy policies already result in an et al., 2017; Stürck et al., 2018). Europe’s
increased demand for wood products forests overall maintain their function as
and for bioenergy (Levers et al., 2014; a carbon sink, but degradation of forest
The climate targets of the Paris Pricewaterhouse Coopers EU, 2017). ecosystems may increase the risks of
Agreement and the incentives offered As a consequence, the land used for eroding the biodiversity and ecological
under new EU policies, e.g. land-based intensively managed forests may condition of forests and of forest soils

PART 2
due to compaction, loss of nutrients erosion is estimated at 970 million
85 861 km
and loss of forest soils (Bengtsson et al., tonnes per year (Panagos et al., 2016).
2000; Frelich et al., 2018). The sustainable The average annual soil loss by wind
2
management of ecosystems and soils erosion is estimated to be about
under agricultural and forestry land 0.53 t/ha per year (EU-28 arable land,
use will continue to be an important of land in the EEA-39 territory 2001-2010; (Borrelli et al., 2017). Crop
challenge for conserving and enhancing harvesting contributes to significant
was sealed in 2015.
Europe’s natural capital. soil removal. Panagos et al. (2019)
estimate that 4.2 million hectares of
root crops (of 173 million hectares of
5.3.4 utilised agricultural land in the EU)
Soil condition (impervious) artificial material contribute to 14.7 million tonnes of
►See Table 5.4 (e.g. asphalt and concrete), though only soil loss. Although there is a declining
part of the land that is defined as land trend due to a decrease in sugar beet
Pressures on European soils are take is actually sealed. cropping, crop harvesting practices may
increasing, and there is a risk that increase the overall soil loss rate in
they will affect the services provided In 2015, 1.48 % of the total EEA-39 countries such as Belgium, Ireland and
by properly functioning, healthy soils. area was sealed (2.43 % of the EU-28 the Netherlands.
Soil is a finite, non-renewable resource in 2012), totalling 85 861 km2. The
because its regeneration takes longer annual rate of soil sealing seems to The annual cost of agricultural
than a human lifetime. It is a key have decreased since 2012 (annual production (losses in crop yield) due to
component of Europe’s natural capital, sealing rate for the monitoring interval severe erosion in the EU is estimated
and it contributes to basic human 2006-2009: 460 km2; 2009‑2012: to be EUR 1.25 billion (Panagos et al.,
needs by supporting, for example, food 492 km2; 2012-2015: 334 km2). 2018). Existing policy, in particular the
provision and water purification, while In certain densely populated countries cross-compliance requirements of the
acting as a major store for organic with dense infrastructure, such as common agricultural policy (Chapter
carbon and a habitat for extremely Belgium and the Netherlands, almost 13), may have reduced rates of soil
diverse biological communities. ‘Soil 4 % of the national territory is sealed. loss over the past decade (Panagos
formation and protection’ is one of et al., 2015). However, erosion rates
the ecosystem services known to be Erosion describes the loss of soil by can be expected to increase in the
declining in Europe, according to the water (predominantly as rill or gully future as a result of more extreme
recent IPBES assessment (IPBES, 2018). erosion) and by wind and harvest rain events (Panagos et al., 2017), but
losses (i.e. soil adhering to harvested sectoral changes, such as increased
Soils are threatened by increasing crops such as sugar beet and potato). parcel size, heavier machinery and
competition for land, unsustainable Apart from the loss of productivity and increased compaction, also play a
practices and inputs of pollutants, soil function, erosion of agricultural role. Maintaining and/or increasing
causing their degradation in various soils is also critical because of their landscape features may reduce the risk
forms. Exposure to chemicals (mineral proximity to surface waters, leading of soil erosion.
fertilisers, plant protection products, to the transfer of soil material
industrial emissions), tillage and and pollutants into water systems Soil compaction is the result of
compaction, as well as soil loss through (e.g. 55 % of soils in Switzerland have a mechanical stress caused by the
sealing from urban expansion, erosion connection to water bodies, passage of agricultural machinery
and landslides, degrade soils physically, (BAFU, 2017)). and livestock. The consequences are
chemically and biologically. increased soil density, a degradation
Panagos et al. (2015) estimated the of soil structure and reduced porosity
mean soil erosion rate by water to (especially macroporosity). This causes
Physical degradation of soils be about 2.46 t/ha per year in the increased resistance against root
EU (which is 1.6 times higher than penetration and also negatively affects
Soil sealing causes the complete and the average rate of soil formation). soil organisms, as their presence is
irreversible loss of all soil functions. Accordingly, 12.7 % of Europe’s land restricted to sufficiently sized pores
Urban expansion and infrastructure area is affected by moderate to high (Schjønning et al., 2015). Compaction
consume soils by physical removal erosion (soil loss rates > 5 t/ha per is known to be a significant pre-cursor
or covering them with impermeable year). The total soil loss due to water of erosion. Soil compaction may lower

PART 2
crop yields by 2.5-15 %, but it also accumulates in 45 % of agricultural

contributes to waterlogging during There may be as many as soils, mainly in southern Europe where
precipitation events, which not only leaching rates are low due to a low
2.8 million contaminated sites
reduces the accessibility of fields to precipitation surplus (Map 5.4). In 21 %
machinery but also negatively affects in the EU, but only 24 % of agricultural soils, the cadmium
run-off, discharge rate and flooding of the sites are inventoried. concentration in the topsoil exceeds
events (Brus and van den Akker, 2018). the limit for groundwater, 1.0 mg/m3
(used for drinking water). Soils therefore
About 23 % of soils in the EU-28 need accurate monitoring of the fate
are estimated to have critically of accumulating heavy metals in the
high densities in their subsoils, chain, threaten human health and be seepage pathway through the soil to the
indicating compaction (Schjønning toxic to soil-dwelling organisms (FAO groundwater.
et al., 2015). About 43 % of subsoils in and ITPS, 2017). Substances that are not
the Netherlands exhibit compaction readily degradable will eventually leach While copper is an essential
(Brus and van den Akker, 2018). Climate into surface and groundwaters or be micronutrient, excess levels in soils
change (higher precipitation during dispersed by wind erosion are a source of concern. Copper has
the cold seasons), heavier machinery (Silva et al., 2018). been widely used as a fungicide spray,
and increasingly narrow time windows especially in vineyards and orchards.
for field operations are all factors that According to Payá Pérez and Rodríguez Results from the Land Use and
could increase the compaction hazard Eugenio (2018), the dominating Coverage Area Frame Survey (LUCAS)
in the future. Although some countries activities for contamination at local soil sampling 2009-2012 show elevated
have guidelines on access to land when level are municipal and industrial waste copper levels in the soils in the olive
the soil is wet, currently there is no sites (37 %) together with industrial and wine‑producing regions of the
European-level instrument to protect emissions and leakages (33 %). In the Mediterranean (Map 5.4) (Ballabio
soils from severe compaction. EU-28, potentially polluting activities et al., 2018). Animal manure is the
took place on an estimated 2.8 million largest source of copper in grassland,
sites (but only 24 % of the sites are which together with zinc is added to
Chemical degradation of soils under inventoried). Currently, only 28 % of the animal feed and is introduced into the
intensive land use registered sites are investigated, a pre- environment through manure spreading
requisite to deciding whether remediation (De Vries et al., forthcoming).
Soils, with the help of various organisms, is needed or not (Payá Pérez and
filter and buffer contaminants in the Rodríguez Eugenio, 2018). Considering There is also increasing concern about
environment. Industrial activities, the estimated extent of past and current the residence and accumulation of
waste disposal and intensive land pollution, and the uncertainties of reliable pesticide residues and their metabolites
management have led to the dispersal estimates, little progress has been made in soils (e.g. glyphosate and AMPA, or
of contaminants throughout the in the assessment and management of aminomethylphosphonic acid), and
environment and eventually to their contaminated sites. their potential release mechanisms, for
accumulation in soils. Sources of example due to acidification and wind
contaminants include the residues of While diffuse contamination through erosion (Silva et al., 2018). In the case
plant protection products, industrial large-scale atmospheric deposition is of the Netherlands, in one third of the
emissions, mineral fertilisers, biosolids decreasing (lead by 87 % and mercury groundwater abstractions, pesticide
(some composts, manures and sewage by 40 % since 1990, using concentrations concentrations can be found that
sludges), wood preservatives and in mosses as indicators (BAFU, 2017)), exceed 75 % of the pesticide standards.
pharmaceutical products. some metals such as cadmium and Two thirds of the substances found
copper are accumulating in arable are herbicides (Swartjes et al., 2016).
Soil contamination can be diffuse and soils (Map 5.4). Once critical thresholds In Finnish agricultural soils, 43 % of the
widespread or intense and localised are exceeded, human health and samples contained pesticides, while
(contaminated sites). Contaminants ecosystem functioning is impacted, for quality standards were exceeded in
include heavy metals, persistent organic example by the release of substances to 15 % of the groundwater bodies studied
pollutants, residues of plant protection groundwater (De Vries et al., 2007). (Juvonen et al., 2017). In a pilot study with
products and others. Depending on soil LUCAS soil samples, over 80 % of soils
properties and their concentrations, Cadmium — mainly originating from tested contained pesticide residues, with
contaminants in soil may enter the food mineral phosphorus fertilisers — 58 % of samples containing mixtures of

PART 2
MAP 5.4 Copper concentration in EU soils, and accumulation rates of cadmium and copper
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
Copper concentration Copper concentration in
European Union soils
mg/kg
<9
60° 9-16
16-22
22-30
50°
30-39
39-49
49-65
> 65
50°
No data
Outside coverage
40°
40°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km

0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
-30° -20° accumulation

Cadmium -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° -30° -20°
Copper -10° 0°
accumulation10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Accumulation rates of Cadmium (left) and Copper (right), 2010

g/ha/yr g/ha/yr
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
-1
.5
20
00
0
0
0.
-2
10
10
to
to
>
-0
to
No data
<
-1
Outside coverage
to
to
to
to
to
>
.5
0
<
0.
-2
0
-0
00
-1
20
-1
Sources: Ballabio et al. (2018) (top); De Vries et al. (forthcoming) (lower left and lower right).

PART 2
MAP 5.5 Calculated nitrogen surplus (inputs vs outputs) (left) and exceedances of critical nitrogen inputs to
agricultural land in view of adverse impacts on the environment (right)
Nitrogen
-30° -20° surplus
-10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° Nitrogen
-30° -20° total
-10° exceedance
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Nitrogen surplus and exceedances of critical nitrogen inputs to agricultural land in view of adverse impacts on water quality
kg/ha/year kg/ha/year
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
25
50
75
25
50
75
0
10
20
20
15
15
No data
<
Outside coverage
<
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
>
to
>
25
50
25
50
75
75
10
Note: Statistical data refer to 2010 inputs; areas shown in white are non-agricultural soils.
Source: De Vries et al. (forthcoming).
two or more residues in a total of 166 endocrine disruptors, antibiotics and

different pesticide combinations (Silva flame retardants. Another source of
et al., 2019). These results indicate the concern is excessive nutrient inputs to
accumulative effects of pollutants, and soils through fertilisers, which leads
that mixtures of pesticide residues in soils to acidification and eutrophication
Various soil contamination are the rule rather than the exception. (Chapter 1, Box 1.2 and Chapter 13).
Europe is a global nitrogen hotspot
thresholds are already
In conclusion, contamination of soils with high nitrogen export through
exceeded. is widespread, and various thresholds rivers to coastal waters, and 10 % of the
are already exceeded (e.g. cadmium), global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions
indicating that the filtering capacity (Van Grinsven et al., 2013). Exceedance
of soils has been exceeded in of critical loads for nitrogen is linked
some areas. However, the additive to reduced plant species richness in a
effects are still unknown for many broad range of European ecosystems
substances in soils. In future attention (Dise, 2011) (see also Chapter 8,
needs to be paid to monitoring and Box 8.2, for critical loads). For
investigating the effects of emerging approximately 65‑75 % of the EU‑27
contaminants such as microplastics, agricultural soils, nitrogen inputs

PART 2
TABLE 5.3 Soil organic carbon by land use category in the period 2009-2015
Land use category Number of samples Mean SOC (g/kg)
2009 2015
Permanent grassland 2 230 42.0 43.8
Long-term cultivated land 5 018 17.9 17.3
Rice 5 22.8 19.2
Permanent crops 704 15.6 16.4
Natural vegetation 4 167 91.7 90.4
Wetlands 23 432.6 456.5
Source: Hiederer (2018).
through fertiliser, manure, biosolids mainly responsible for nutrient cycling,

and nitrogen‑fixing crops exceed critical The increased intensity which is essential for plant growth.
values beyond which eutrophication
of land use has negatively
can be expected (e.g. critical ammonia, The dynamics of SOC vary according
or NH3, emissions to remain below affected the species richness to land use and specific management
critical loads, or 2.5 mg N/l in run-off to of earthworms, springtails practices. Forest soils currently act as
surface waters) (Map 5.5). On average and mites across Europe. a strong sink for carbon (30-50 % of
across Europe, about a 40 % reduction the current sink by forest biomass)
in nitrogen inputs would be needed to (Luyssaert et al., 2010). In a recent
prevent this exceedance (De Vries et al., assessment covering 2009-2015, carbon
forthcoming). Map 5.5 (left) presents (through erosion, climate change, in mineral cropland soils in the EU-28
the nitrogen surplus, being the drainage of otherwise waterlogged was shown to be broadly stable or
difference between nitrogen inputs and soils) impact the supply of ecosystem slightly declining (albeit at much lower
uptake by plants, which is a measure of services and reduce biodiversity (Stolte levels compared with other land cover
the potential pollution of air and water et al., 2016). Biologically mediated categories) (Table 5.3), while carbon
(De Vries et al., forthcoming). decomposition of organic material is in grasslands showed slight increases
the fundamental process for building (Hiederer, 2018); similar results were
the soil carbon stock, which, together also reported from national soil
Biological degradation and the with clay minerals, are important for monitoring (e.g. Kobza, 2015; Kaczynski
decline in soil organic matter nutrient retention and cycling. et al., 2017). It should be noted that
the LUCAS sampling programme has
Soils deliver key ecosystem services Different forms of soil degradation only recently started, so the currently
such as nutrient provision, water (SOC loss, tillage, pollution, compaction available 6-year interval is relatively
purification, filtering of pollutants and erosion) negatively impact the short to demonstrate significant
and a habitat for soil organisms. habitat available for soil organisms. In changes in SOC stocks.
Non‑degraded soils provide these all regions across Europe, the species
functions simultaneously and to a level richness of earthworms, springtails The largest amounts of SOC are found
needed for ecosystem performance and mites has been negatively affected in organic soils such as peat (Byrne and
(Chapter 3). Two closely connected by increased intensity of land use et al., 2004; spatial extend of peat and
indicators are the basis of soil (Tsiafouli et al., 2015). Healthy soils mires, see Tanneberger et al., 2017).
multifunctionality, the soil organic contain active microbial (bacteria and Cultivation of organic soils causes large
carbon (SOC) pool and soil biodiversity. fungi) and animal (micro to macro carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Such
Carbon is one of the primary sources of fauna) communities (Orgiazzi et al., carbon losses contribute significantly to
energy in food webs; losses of carbon 2016), of which bacteria and fungi are the negative greenhouse gas balance

PART 2
TABLE 5.4 Summary assessment — soil condition
Past trends Land cover change and management intensity significantly affect soil condition and levels of
(10-15 years) contamination. Progress in the remediation of polluted soils is slow. Despite recent reductions in
soil sealing, fertile soils continue to be lost by continued land take. On intensively managed land, soil
biodiversity is endangered. Soil loss as a result of sedimentation through erosion is still significant.
The effects of soil compaction and historical and current losses of soil organic carbon are becoming
increasingly visible under climate change.
Outlook to 2030 The underlying drivers of soil degradation are not projected to change favourably, so the functionality of soils
is under even more pressure. Harmonised, representative soil monitoring across Europe is needed to develop
early warnings of exceedances of critical thresholds and to guide sustainable soil management.
2020 Europe is not on track to protect its soil resources based on the existing strategies. There is a lack of binding
policy targets; and some threats to soil — compaction, salinisation and soil sealing — are not addressed
 in existing European legislation. There is a high risk that the EU will fail some of its own and international
commitments such as land degradation neutrality.
Robustness A consistent set of indicators and representative databases for all soil threats across Europe has not yet
been established. Measurements and monitoring of soil threats are incomplete. For selected indicators, data
on changes in the condition of topsoils can be derived from the LUCAS soil programme (pesticide and soil
biodiversity components are currently being added). The assessment of the outlook for and prospects of
meeting policy objectives relies primarily on expert judgement.
for some countries (Schils et al., 2008), Meeting the 7th EAP objective of no
and they are expected to continue to do net land take by 2050 would require
so in the future: 13-36 % of the current investments in land recycling, as well
soil carbon stock in European peatlands as halting land take. Land recycling is
might be lost by the end of this century one way to ensure that a growing urban
(Gobin et al., 2011). Europe is at risk of not population consumes less land per
meeting the 7th EAP objective capita. Land recycling can be achieved
by constructing between buildings
5.4
of managing land sustainably (densification), by constructing on
Responses and prospects of and reaching no net land brownfield sites (i.e. already used sites,
meeting agreed targets and take by 2050. known as grey recycling) or by converting
objectives developed land into green areas (green
recycling) (EEA, 2018b). Setting up green
Several recent assessments consider infrastructure is an important means of
land and soil critical yet finite natural re-establishing and maintaining unsealed
resources, subject to competing are largely missing at the European areas, thus allowing patches and networks
pressures from urbanisation and level. The European Court of of urban ecosystems to function in more
infrastructure development and Auditors recommends establishing sustainable cities (see Chapters 3 and 17
from increased food, feed, fibre and methodologies and a legal framework for more information on the role of green
fuel production (FAO and ITPS, 2015; to assess land degradation and infrastructure). However, currently there
IPBES, 2018). While many European desertification and to support the is no legal framework or incentive to
and national policies address land Member States to achieve land recycle urban land, despite funding being
and soil to some extent, binding degradation neutrality by 2030 available for land rehabilitation under the
targets, incentives and measures (ECA, 2018). EU cohesion policy.

PART 2
Measures to halt land take vary systems that encompass all processes
considerably throughout European and activities related to the human use
countries. Reducing land take is an of land (EEA, 2018c). A key element of
indicative policy objective in Austria, better land stewardship will be a focus
whereas the target to achieve ‘zero on ecosystem services. However, the
net land take by 2050’ is integrated The absence of suitable services that landowners may supply as
into national policies in France and EU soil legislation an obligation to the common good (land
Switzerland. In Germany, the national and soil) will need clear specifications
sustainable development strategy for
contributes to soil (Bartkowski et al., 2018). The more
2020 sets a goal to limit the use of new degradation within Europe. systemic land systems approach may
areas for settlement and transport, provide a holistic frame, but it needs
whereas in Hungary the 2013 national to be complemented with relevant
spatial plan defines suitability zones governance or legal measures. Technical
for agriculture, nature protection solutions already known to practitioners
and forest. The United Kingdom and still need criteria, thresholds and
Flanders (Belgium) aim to have 60 % of incentives to achieve the societal goal of
urban development on brownfield sites set of practices, implemented in some more sustainable land use and to make
(Science for Environment Policy et al., areas for a limited period of time. its application on the ground part of
2016; Decoville and Schneider, 2016). everyday practice.
However, new housing is needed in Glæsner et al. (2014) concludes
many urban conglomerates, and the that three threats to soil, namely Diverse policies refer to soil pollution
2050 objective of the 7th EAP continues compaction, salinisation and sealing, and the need for data on pollution
to be challenging to meet. are not addressed in existing EU sources (Water Framework Directive,
legislation and that targets to limit Industrial Emissions Directive,
There is currently no European soil threats are hardly defined. A National Emissions Ceiling Directive,
legislation that focuses exclusively coherent coordination of the different Environmental Liability Directive,
on soil. The absence of suitable existing policies could make soil Mercury regulation, Sewage Sludge
soil legislation at the European protection at EU level effective. In Directive); however, there is a lack of
level contributes to the continuous addition, the multifunctionality of binding measures, e.g. to build and
degradation of many soils within Europe soil cannot be properly addressed publish registers of polluted sites or to
(Virto et al., 2014; Günal et al., 2015). through the existing heterogeneous assess and apply harmonised definitions
policy environment. In order to and critical thresholds for contaminants
Vrebos et al. (2017) found 35 different progress, a revision of the existing soil in soils.
EU policy instruments that — mostly thematic strategy (EC, 2006) is urgently
indirectly — affect soil functions, as needed, as well as agreements to With regard to land and soil, how can
suggested in the soil thematic strategy. improve Europe‑wide harmonised soil more sustainable use and proper
Many of them have the potential monitoring and indicator assessments. preservation of the multifunctionality
to address various soil degradative of land be achieved in the absence of
processes (Frelih-Larsen et al., 2017). Societal discussion on soil protection direct policies? The 7th EAP has not
However, their effectiveness is unclear needs to expand beyond economics and been sufficient to create a common
(Louwagie et al., 2011). For example, include the concept of land stewardship. EU vision for sustainable land and soil
some of the common agricultural This would complement the production- use. Progress towards sustainable
policy measures such as creating oriented and biophysical aspects of development in Europe (and globally) is
good agricultural and environmental land management and aim to achieve possible only if land and soil resources
conditions (GAEC) refer to only a specific more systemic solutions, such as land are properly addressed.

06.
Marine
environment
2
© Simone Manfredi
3
par A
Key messages
• Marine life is still under pressure • At the same time, the target of • Looking ahead, the marine
across Europe’s seas. Multiple achieving good environmental status environment is under pressure
pressures affect species and habitats, of European marine waters by 2020 is from the development of the blue
leading to cumulative impacts that unlikely to be achieved in relation to economy and climate change. In the
reduce the overall resilience of marine key pressures such as contaminants, face of this unprecedented amount
ecosystems. eutrophication, invasive alien species of human activities competing to
and marine litter. use the marine environment, the
• Through joint efforts, European outlook for achieving the policy vision
countries have managed to reduce • Changes observed across Europe’s of healthy, clean and productive
selected pressures, and positive effects seas show that not all pressures are European seas is challenging.
are starting to become visible. These addressed adequately or fast enough Transitions in the management of
cover the recovery of some marine and that knowledge of the cumulative the marine environment to improve
species, including commercially effects of pressures remains limited. policy implementation, integration and
exploited fish and shellfish stocks; cooperation are required.
where an increasing number of
these stocks are now being fished at
maximum sustainable yield. The target
for designation of marine protected
areas has been met.

objectives/targets
State of marine ecosystems and biodiversity Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

 Largely not on track
picture developments dominate
Pressures and impacts on marine Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

ecosystems picture developments dominate
Sustainable use of the seas Trends show a mixed Developments show

 Partly on track
Marine protected areas Improving trends Developments show

 Largely on track
4 par A
PART 2
06.
Marine environment
6.1 Past and current human activities,

Scope of the theme and the cumulative pressures they
exert, have reached a level where they
Throughout history, the use of Europe’s not only impact marine species and
seas — spanning from the Baltic Sea habitats but are likely to jeopardise
and North-east Atlantic Ocean to the Marine ecosystems and the essential structures and functions
Mediterranean and Black Seas — has species remain under threat of marine ecosystems pushing against
played a crucial role in people’s lives. the limits for a safe operating space
This comprises the use of marine
as Europe’s seas continue for humankind (Rockström et al., 2009;
natural capital, including marine to be exploited unsustainably. Steffen, et al., 2015) (Chapter 1).
ecosystems and their biological
diversity, which makes ecosystems Such progressive realisation has led to
function and underpins their capacity developing a comprehensive EU policy
to supply ecosystem services, as well self‑renewal and resilience, jeopardising framework covering individual
as the use of natural resources such as the ecosystem services they can supply activities, whole sectors, pressures,
seawater, oil, sand or gravel. and upon which we depend. species/habitats and ecosystems.
The ecosystem-based approach
People depend on the seas for This chapter explores the state of to the management of human
transport, energy, food and income Europe’s seas, the pressures and their activities in the marine environment
as well as for less obvious life-support effects and sustainable use in the (i.e. ecosystem‑based management)
functions, such as the oxygen in the context of ‘living well, within the limits’ is at the centre of this framework
air we breathe and climate regulation. of the sea. (EC 2007; EU 2013; Table 6.1).
How this core resource is managed
is not only essential for the sea but One of the main drivers for healthy,
also to meet people’s basic needs 6.2 clean and productive European seas is
and contribute to their well-being Policy landscape the 2008 Marine Strategy Framework
and livelihoods. As the seas are Directive (MSFD) (EU, 2008a). The MSFD
exploited, multiple pressures arise Earth is a blue planet. The health of aims to protect the marine ecosystems
leading to cumulative impacts on marine the oceans is vital not only for the underpinning the supply of marine
ecosystems, which undermines their planet itself but also for humanity. ecosystem services, upon which
SOER 2020/Marine environment 135

PART 2
people and several maritime activities 18 % of the world’s macroscopic marine
65 % +
depend. It does so by enshrining biodiversity (Bianchi and Morri, 2000).
ecosystem‑based management into In comparison, the Bothnian Bay in the
EU marine policy and requiring that Baltic Sea holds only approximately
EU marine waters achieve good 300 species (Helcom, 2018a).
environmental status by 2020. On of protected seabed
the use of the sea, the EU integrated habitats are in unfavourable There is still much to discover about
maritime policy seeks to provide a Europe’s seas. It is estimated that at
conservation status.
more coherent approach to maritime least 50 % of their total area (within
activities and issues, such as increased 200 nautical miles) is more than 2 000 m
coordination between various policy deep and so in eternal darkness. This
areas, e.g. fisheries and maritime is an environment about which little
transport, in order to promote a selected policy targets and objectives knowledge is available and even less
sustainable blue economy. The work addressed in this chapter. so regarding the impacts of human
is further supported through the activities upon it.
long‑term efforts of the four Regional
Sea Conventions (Helcom, the Baltic 6.3 Recognising such vulnerability as well
Marine Environment Commission; Key trends and outlooks as our dependency on marine and
OSPAR, the Convention for the other ecosystems, the EU has put a
Protection of the Marine Environment Europe’s seas are already influenced by strategic vision in place to halt the loss
of the North-East Atlantic; UNEP-MAP, centuries of human use, including the of biodiversity (EC, 2011). Core elements
the United Nations Environment adverse effects from climate change, of this vision for 2020 are to achieve
Programme Mediterranean action plan; and may have limited, if any, untapped favourable conservation status for
and the Bucharest Convention, known potential to offer. This is unless vulnerable marine species and habitats
in full as the Bucharest Convention on current management and protection as well as good environmental status
the Protection of the Black Sea against measures are improved, coordinated for marine biodiversity and marine
Pollution). and/or enforced. This section provides ecosystems in general (EEC, 1992) (Table
a snapshot of some of the key trends 6.1 and Chapter 3). Unfortunately, no
UN Sustainable Development in the driving forces and the state of progress reporting on the implementation
Goal (SDG) 14 is a global policy initiative Europe’s seas. of either directive has taken place since
raising awareness of the need to The European environment — state and
protect ocean health. It focuses on outlook 2015 (EEA, 2015b), and so other
the conservation of, the reduction of 6.3.1 information sources have been used in
pressures and their impacts upon, and State of marine ecosystems, this assessment.
the sustainable use of seas and oceans. including their biodiversity
The EU has adopted and embraced ►See Table 6.2 Given the need to address many
these goals, which are to be delivered complex issues within a holistic
through a series of EU policies and Europe’s seas, and their associated perspective, it is challenging to come to
legislation pre-dating the adoption marine and coastal ecosystems, are a single conclusion on whether the loss
of SDG 14. Key among them are not very diverse in their geographical of marine biodiversity has been halted
only the MSFD and the integrated extent, structurally and in terms of their and if Europe is on track to achieve
maritime policy but also the Seventh productivity. They range from shallow, healthy, clean and productive seas. It is
Environment Action Programme semi-enclosed seas to vast areas of the possible, however, to look at long-term
(7th EAP) (EU, 2013) and the EU deep ocean, and they include diverse trends in the state of key ecosystem
biodiversity strategy to 2020 (EC, 2011). coastal zones with prolific intertidal components. The trends in the state of
With all these instruments, the EU has areas, lagoons and ancient seagrass widespread or common species show
committed to protecting, conserving beds (EEA, 2015c). mixed developments.
and enhancing marine ecosystems.
Finally, sustainability outcomes are The Mediterranean and Baltic Most of the assessed commercially
influenced by other policies, including Seas illustrate such variation. The exploited fish and shellfish stocks in the
climate change, air pollution and Mediterranean Sea is one of the world’s North-East Atlantic Ocean (62.5 %) and
industrial pollution (Chapters 7, 8, 12). hot spots for biodiversity. Its highly the Baltic Sea (87.5%) were on track for
Table 6.1 presents an overview of diverse ecosystems host around up to meeting at least one of the GES criteria
136 SOER 2020/Marine environment

PART 2

State of marine ecosystems and including their biodiversity
Better protection and restoration of ecosystems and the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 2020 Non-binding commitment
services they provide
Ensuring biodiversity through the conservation of Council Directive 92/43/EEC; N/A Legally binding
natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora Directive 2009/147/EC
The quality and occurrence of habitats and the Directive 2008/56/EC as amended by 2020 Legally binding
distribution and abundance of species are in line with 2017/845 and Decision 2017/848
prevailing physiographical, geographical and climatic
conditions
Minimise and address the impacts of ocean acidification SDG 14.3 2030 Non-binding commitment
Pressures and their impacts
Continuously reducing discharges, emissions and losses Fourth North Sea Ministerial 2020 Non-binding commitment
of hazardous substances and moving towards the target Declaration 1995
of their cessation within one generation
Achieving concentrations in the marine environment Directive 2000/60/EC; SDG 14.1 2028 Legally binding
near background values for naturally occurring
hazardous substances and close to zero for man-made
synthetic substances
Keep concentrations of contaminants at levels not giving Directive 2008/56/EC; Commission 2020 Legally binding
rise to pollution effects Decision 2017/848; SDG 14.1;
Human-induced eutrophication is minimised, especially 2008/56/EC as amended by 2017/845 2020 Legally binding
its adverse effects and Decision 2017/848; Directive
2000/60/EC
Non-indigenous introduced species are at levels that do Directive 2008/56/EC; Commission 2020 Legally binding
not adversely affect the ecosystems Decision 2017/848; EU biodiversity
strategy to 2020
Quantitative reduction of marine litter to a level that Directive 2008/56/EC; Commission 2020 Legally binding
does not cause harm to the marine environment Decision 2017/848; 7th EAP; SDG 14.1
Sustainable use of the seas
Populations of all commercially exploited fish and Directive 2008/56/EC; SDG 14.4 2020 Legally binding
shellfish are within safe biological limits
Achieve maximum sustainable yields for European EU common fisheries policy 2013; 2015-2020 Legally binding
commercially exploited fish and shellfish stocks 7th EAP
Increase marine renewable energy production and EU integrated maritime policy — 2020 Non-binding commitment
exploration the Limassol Declaration
Support the development of a highly diversified and EU integrated maritime policy — 2020 Non-binding commitment
sustainable coastal and maritime tourism in Europe the Limassol Declaration
10 % of coastal and marine areas are conserved through CBD Aichi biodiversity target 11; 2020 Non-binding commitment
systems of protected areas SDG 14.5
Establish necessary measures to achieve or maintain Directive 2008/56/EC as amended 2020 Legally binding
good environmental status in the marine environment by 2017/845 and Decision 2017/848;
Directive 2000/60/EC
Apply an ecosystem-based approach to the Directive 2008/56/EC; 2020 Legally binding

management of human activities Directive 2014/89/EU
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; CBD, Convention on Biological Diversity; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal;
N/A non-applicable.

PART 2
FIGURE 6.1 Mean annual productivity of the white-tailed eagle in the Baltic Proper, Swedish coastal
Productivity
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: The productivity is estimated as the number of nestlings in the Baltic Proper from 1964 to 2014. Productivity is defined as the number
of nestlings per checked territorial pair. The yellow line illustrates the threshold value of the Helcom core indicator.
Source: Helcom (2018a).
in the regions in 2017 due to better been an overall drop of 20 % in seabird Helcom, 2018a). Despite the increase
fisheries management (EEA, 2019c). In populations over the last 25 years for in the population of grey seals in the
contrast, most of the assessed stocks in more than one quarter of the species Baltic Sea, their nutritional condition
the Mediterranean Sea (94%) and Black assessed (OSPAR, 2017b). On a positive and reproductive status is not good
Sea (85.7%) were subject to overfishing note, there are examples of recovery of (Helcom, 2018a). In the Mediterranean
in 2016 (EEA, 2019c). Overall, 40 % of individual species as a result of targeted Sea, the number of monk seals appears
shark and ray species in Europe’s seas management efforts, e.g. the banning of to be stabilising, although this species
show declining populations (Bradai DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) is still at risk because of its small
et al., 2012; Nieto et al., 2015). In and PCB. This includes the white‑tailed population size (Notarbartolo di Sciara
contrast, strong regulation to reduce eagle in parts of the Baltic Sea and Kotomatas, 2016).
fishing mortality has brought another (Helcom, 2018b) (Figure 6.1).
top Mediterranean predator, bluefin Recent studies of populations of killer
tuna, back from the brink of collapse Marine mammals are all protected by whales show adverse effects of PCB on
(in 2005-2007) to achieve sustainable EU legislation or global policy, but their their reproduction, threatening > 50 %
levels of reproductive capacity in 2014 status is not fully understood due to of the global population. This may result
(Fishsource, 2018; based on ICCAT, complexities in monitoring. This has in the disappearance of killer whales
2017a, 2017b). resulted in 72 % of Member States’ from the most contaminated areas
reports on their status (ETC/BD, 2012) within 50 years, despite PCB having been
Average European seabird population and 44 % of the International Union banned for 30 years. This includes areas
trends are either stable or declining. for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in the North-East Atlantic Ocean and
Approximately 33 % are slightly declining assessments being data deficient around the Strait of Gibraltar (Desforges
and another 22 % are regarded as (Temple and Terry, 2007). Some seal et al., 2018; Aarhus University, 2018).
threatened (BirdLife International, 2015). populations are relatively healthy and
In the Norwegian Arctic, the Greater increasing in numbers or reaching Seabed habitats are under significant
North Sea and the Celtic Seas, there has carrying capacity (OSPAR, 2017c; pressure across EU marine regions,

PART 2
TABLE 6.2 Summary assessment — state of marine ecosystems and biodiversity
Past trends A high proportion of marine species and habitats continue to be in unfavourable conservation status or
(10-15 years) declining condition, although management efforts targeting individual species and habitats, or specific
pressures, have led to improvements in their condition. However, this success is only partial, as recovery
is not common to all biodiversity features or to all of Europe’s seas.
Outlook to 2030 Many marine species or species groups still have declining populations or have failed to reach favourable
conservation status. Nevertheless, several have achieved good condition, showing that some management
efforts are working. However, the underlying climatic drivers of marine ecosystem degradation appear
not to be improving, as related pressures are worsening. Legacy hazardous substances and heavy metals,
non‑indigenous species and marine litter will continue to impact marine ecosystems. The use of marine
resources and space is expected to increase. Reaching agreed policy goals for the marine environment across
all policies and mitigating climate change are essential to prevent further damage and/or achieve full recovery
of marine ecosystems, thereby preserving their long-term resilience, if the outlook is to change.
2020 EU marine regions are at risk of achieving neither the Marine Strategy Framework Directive’s good
 environmental status for marine biodiversity nor the Habitats Directive’s favourable conservation status for
protected marine species and habitats by 2020.
Robustness There is large variation in the availability of information on the state of marine species and habitats across
marine regions and gaps in data remain. Formal reporting of progress on the implementation of EU marine
environmental legislation is often delayed and/or inadequate. The available outlook information is limited,
so the assessment of outlook relies primarily on expert judgement.
with over 65 % of protected seabed whelk (Schøyen et al., 2019), assessed 2018a). In addition, ocean warming
habitats reported as being in commercially exploited fish and shellfish (EEA 2016a), acidification (Fabry et al.,
unfavourable conservation status stocks in the North-East Atlantic Ocean 2008; NOAA, 2013) and deoxygenation
20 years after the entry into force of and Baltic Sea (EEA, 2019c), harbour (Carstensen et al., 2014; Breitburg et al.,
the Habitats Directive (EEA, 2015d). In seals in the Kattegat (OSPAR, 2017c; 2018; Schmidtko et al., 2017) continue
another example, 86 % of the seabed Helcom, 2018a), white-tailed eagle in to worsen.
assessed in the Greater North Sea and the Baltic Sea (Helcom, 2018b) and the
Celtic Seas shows evidence of physical Mediterranean bluefin tuna (ICCAT, These last examples indicate that
disturbance by bottom-trawling gear 2017a, 2017b). various trophic levels could be
(OSPAR, 2017a). In the Baltic Sea, only impacted, which implies that the
44 % and 29 % of the soft-bottom Despite these examples, halting marine resilience of Europe’s seas could be
seabed habitat area in coastal waters biodiversity loss remains a great degrading and so significant systemic
and in the open sea were in good challenge. Some marine populations and changes may be under way. Given the
status, respectively (Helcom, 2018a). groups of species are still under threat, sometimes long response time for
However, the common dog whelk is including copepods (UKMMAS, 2010; species to recover, e.g. 25-30 years
recovering on the Norwegian coast Edwards et al., 2016), pteropods (NOAA, for white-tailed eagle (Figure 6.1), or
as a direct response to banning TBT 2013), Atlantic cod (Stiasny et al., 2019), the even longer time taken for some
(tributylin) (see Schøyen et al., 2019, seabirds (BirdLife International, 2015), trends in pressures on the ecosystem
and Chapter 10). assessed commercially exploited fish to reverse, e.g. eutrophication (Murray
and shellfish stocks in the Mediterranean et al., 2019), the outlook for 2020
To summarise, when considering the and Black Seas (EEA, 2019c), sharks remains bleak. Therefore, marine
halting of marine biodiversity loss, there and rays (Bradai, et al., 2012) and ecosystems continue to be at risk, which
are several examples of recovery for killer whales (Desforges et al., 2018). could undermine the sea’s capacity to
some species and groups of species. The same applies to seabed habitats supply the ecosystem services upon
These include the common dog (ETC/BD, 2012; OSPAR, 2017a; Helcom, which humanity depends.

PART 2
6.3.2 around 2200, and two areas may not be

Pressures and their impacts affected by eutrophication at all (Murray
►See Table 6.3 et al., 2019).
Europe’s seas and their ecosystems In the Black Sea, reduced nutrient
are perceived as the last wilderness The impacts of eutrophication inputs have translated into a 15-20 %
with a large potential for increased on the marine environment reduction in primary production
exploitation. In reality, they are under compared with 1992 levels. However,
and its ecosystems remain a
various pressures from multiple human it remains mesotrophic compared with
activities even in remote marine areas. problem in some European the pre-1960s oligotrophic levels, i.e.
Each human activity causes several marine regions. still eutrophic (Yunev et al., 2017).
pressures that often overlap (Jackson
et al., 2001), and these overlapping Coastal water assessments under the
pressures can cause cumulative adverse WFD (EEA, 2018a) indicate that 55 % of
effects on marine ecosystems (Halpern the coastal waters assessed achieve
et al., 2008; Micheli et al., 2013). But efforts to reduce people’s exposure its good ecological status objective
how to deal with these cumulative to such substances (EU, 2000). Other regarding phytoplankton conditions
impacts has not yet been fully captured substances, such as dioxins, have (reflecting eutrophication status) as
in management or planning processes. been recorded in oily fish, such as they are in either high or good status,
herring or salmon, in the Baltic Sea although outcomes vary among
Contaminants (Vuorinen et al., 2012). This has caused EU marine regions. Good or high status
health authorities to advise restricting is observed in the coastal waters of
Hazardous substances above agreed consumption of fish from the affected the Celtic Seas and the Bay of Biscay,
threshold levels are found across all of areas, especially by pregnant women. the Macaronesian and most of the
Europe’s seas. While concentrations of Dioxin can disrupt growth, cause cancer Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, 85 %
specific substances and/or groups of or adversely affect the immune system and 76 % of the coastal waters assessed
substances have declined, some heavy (Livsmedelsverket, 2018). under the WFD in the Black and Baltic
metals and persistent substances are Seas were in less than good status,
still found at elevated levels, at which respectively. Nutrient inputs from point
— in the case of persistent substances, Eutrophication sources have significantly decreased,
such as PCBs, or heavy metals, such as but inputs from diffuse sources
mercury — achieving politically agreed Eutrophication, linked to nutrient have not, and the use of agricultural
targets is jeopardised (Table 6.1). pollution, remains a problem in mineral fertilisers has even increased
Furthermore, new substances are being some European marine regions. in some areas (EEA (forthcoming),
developed and marketed faster than The forthcoming EEA assessment of 2019). Agriculture is the major driver of
before. These may or may not pose a eutrophication indicates that nutrient diffuse pollution with the highest inputs
future threat (EEA, 2019b). levels exceed threshold values in 40 % of nutrients and organic matter into
of the assessed sites. aquatic environments (Chapter 13). The
Contaminants in the marine main driver of point source pollution is
environment can cause adverse effects Nutrient inputs have been reduced, still urban waste water treatment and
on marine species but also potentially but the Baltic Sea and the Black storm overflow (EEA, 2018c).
have an impact on human health Sea remain eutrophic (Andersen, et
(Chapter 10). For example, phthalates al., 2017; Yunev et al., 2017). Thus,
can cause reduced fertility in humans despite significant decreased inputs of Reduced oxygen in seawater
and they have been found in high nitrogen and phosphorus, more than
concentrations in Europe’s seas: from 97 % of the Baltic Sea is still eutrophic Hypoxia is the extreme symptom of
Bergen, Norway, to the German Bight, (Helcom, 2018a) (Figure 6.2). Model eutrophication, and deoxygenation
North Sea (AMAP, 2017). One phthalate results show that one Baltic basin may is an increasing global challenge
(DEHP, or diethylhexyl phthalate) is be non‑eutrophic by 2030 or 2040 and in coastal and open waters
listed as a priority substance under more areas will have joined it by 2090. (Carstensen et al., 2014; Breitburg et al.,
the EU Water Framework Directive The Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea may 2018). It is a severe threat not only to
(WFD), illustrating some of the existing reach good eutrophication status only the living conditions of biota but also for

PART 2
FIGURE 6.2 Long-term trends in eutrophication in the Baltic Sea
Kattegat
Danish Straits
Arkona Basin
Bornholm Basin
Baltic Proper
Gulf of Riga
Gulf of Finland
Bothnian Sea
Bothnian Bay
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Status: High Good Moderate Poor Bad
Note: Long-term spatial and temporal trends are assessed for nine sub-basins of the Baltic Sea for the period 1901-2012 based on the HEAT
multi-metric indicator-based tool and a broad range of in situ measured indicators.
Source: Andersen et al. (2017).
attempts to reverse the eutrophication has been steadily increasing since the fish and shellfish stocks have been
process. Hypoxia in near‑bottom 1950s (Conley et al., 2011). However, overexploited, sometimes to the point
water releases sediment‑bound significant reductions in nutrient loads that it may affect their reproductive
phosphorus in a readily utilisable form into the Baltic Sea in the last couple of capacity and, thus, their potential to
and enhances eutrophication, which decades have slowed the expansion of recover from exploitation. Decreased
may lead to a feedback loop (EEA hypoxia, but the trend has not yet been fishing pressure in the North-East
(forthcoming), 2019). Deoxygenation reversed (Carstensen, 2019). Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea in
may be exacerbated by increases in sea recent years has led to signs of recovery
temperature (Carstensen et al., 2014; In the Greater North Sea, reduced of many stocks, meeting policy targets
Breitburg et al., 2018). oxygen concentrations are observed for fishing mortality or reproductive
mainly at some stations in fjords in capacity or both in 2017 (EEA, 2019c). In
Widespread oxygen depletion occurs Denmark and along the Swedish and contrast, most of the assessed stocks
in the Baltic and Black Seas, although Norwegian coasts. Concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea (93.9 %)
it is partly due to natural conditions decreased at 9 % of the stations and Black Sea (85.7 %) were subject
(stratification) (EEA (forthcoming), during the period 1990-2017, mainly in to overfishing in 2016 (EEA, 2019c;
2019). The lower water layers of the Danish fjords and at some points in the Section 13.3 in Chapter 13). A similar
Black Sea are naturally permanently German Bight (EEA (forthcoming), 2019). pattern is observed by Froese et al.
anoxic, but the depth of the surface (2018)) when looking across 397 stocks
oxygenated layer has decreased from found in the Black Sea, Mediterranean
140 m in 1955 to less than 80 m in Fisheries Sea, Baltic Sea and the North-East Atlantic
2016 (von Schuckmann, et al., 2016; Ocean over the period 2013‑2015.
Capet, et al., 2016). In the Baltic Sea, Commercial fisheries cover large areas The abundance of sensitive species
there was a 10‑fold increase in the of Europe’s seas and are considered one (sharks, rays, and skates) decreased by
perennially hypoxic area during the of the human activities with the highest 69 % in heavily trawled areas (Dureuil
20th century, i.e. from 5 000 km2 to impact on the marine environment et al., 2018). Bycatch of marine mammals,
> 60 000km2 (Carstensen et al., 2014). (Micheli et al., 2013; FAO, 2016; OSPAR, seabirds and non-commercial fish is still
In the Baltic Sea coastal zone, hypoxia 2017b). Historically, many commercial a major threat (OSPAR, 2017b).

PART 2
FIGURE 6.3 Cumulative number of non-indigenous species in Europe’s seas

Number of new NIS introduced
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
1949-1951 1952-1957 1958-1963 1964-1969 1970-1975 1976-1981 1982-1987 1988-1993 1994-1999 2000-2005 2006-2011 2012-2017
Vertebrates Invertebrates Primary producers
Note: Data file: MAR002_Trends in MAS_DATA-METADATA_v2.15.12.18.
Hydromorphological and other urbanisation, port facilities, boating, trawling and by shipping in shallow
physical pressures flood protection infrastructures and waters. Overall, 14 % of Europe’s
land reclamation (EEA, 2019a) . In seabed was trawled at least once
About 28 % of Europe’s coastline addition, about 25 % of the area of the during the period 2011-2016, although
is affected by pressures causing coastal strip (up to 12 nautical miles this figure increases to 32 % when
changes in hydrographic conditions, from shore) is subject to seabed habitat focusing on the coastal area (up to 12
e.g. in seawater movement, loss due to construction of, for example, nautical miles from shore). Up to 86 %
temperature and salinity, according wind farms, oil and gas installations of the Greater North Sea and Celtic
to the hydromorphological pressure and ports, as well as exploitation Seas’ seabeds have been physically
assessments made in coastal waters of, for example, fish, shellfish and disturbed by bottom trawling, of which
under the WFD. Coastal developments minerals. In offshore waters (from 58 % is highly disturbed. Up to 40 % of
modify natural hydrological 12 to 200 nautical miles from shore), seabed habitats in the Baltic Sea are
conditions and impact habitats where less than 3 % of seabed habitats are physically disturbed and this is much
hydrographical pressure is highest in considered lost, although the extent of higher in the sub-basins where bottom
the coastline of the Mediterranean and seabed habitat loss is region specific trawling is practised (OSPAR, 2017b;
Black Seas. Reporting under the WFD and highest in the Baltic Sea, where it Helcom, 2018a). Shipping in shallow
also determined that about 19 % of the affects 14 % of the seabed (ETC/ICM, waters causes pressure from physical
EU coastline is affected by permanent unpublished data). In addition, about disturbance in 10 % of Europe’s seabed
physical alterations in seabed habitats 16 % of Europe’s seabed is under overall, although regional extents can
consistent with pressure from pressure from physical disturbance, be much higher, reaching 57 % in the
physical loss and due to, for example, which is mainly caused by bottom Baltic Sea (ETC/ICM, unpublished data).

PART 2
FIGURE 6.4 Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (running average over 11 years)
SST anomaly (°C)
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Global ocean North Sea Baltic Sea Mediterranean Sea North Atlantic Black Sea
Note: Time series of annual average sea surface temperature (°C), referenced to the average temperature between 1993 and 2012, in the
global ocean and in each of the European seas. Data sources: SST data sets from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service
(Mediterranean Sea) and the Hadley Centre (HADISST1; global and other regional seas).
Non-indigenous species of plastic ends up in the ocean every year
8 million
(EEA, 2018b). Plastic items are the most
All Europe’s seas suffer from the abundant and damaging components of
introduction of non-indigenous species marine litter because of their persistence,
(NISs), with the highest number of accumulation and toxicity, and they can
introductions in the Mediterranean Sea. tonnes of plastic waste ends have physical, chemical and biological
Currently, at least 1 223 marine NISs impacts on marine biodiversity. Plastics
up in the ocean every year
have been recorded. NISs appear to constitute up to 95 % of the waste that
be introduced at a relatively constant
putting pressure on accumulates on shorelines, the sea
rate (Figure 6.3) (EEA, 2019d). The main the marine environment surface and the sea floor. The majority of
pathway of introduction is maritime and its ecosystems. plastic litter items are packaging, fishing
transport, responsible for more than nets and small pieces of unidentifiable
50 % of NIS transfer via ballast water, plastic or polystyrene (Pham et al., 2014).
tank sediments, hull fouling, corridors species; these have the highest invasive Litter pollution harms marine animals
and other vectors (Tsiamis et al., 2018; potential. These invasive alien species are through entanglement, clogging their
EEA, 2019d) . The European sea with found across all of Europe’s seas. digestive systems (following ingestion)
the highest pressure from NISs is the and physiological changes, although the
Mediterranean (Tsiamis et al., 2018). NISs Marine litter effects at population level are still not
are currently established in approximately well investigated. Land-based sources
8 % of Europe’s sea area. Of these, 81 NISs Marine litter puts pressure on all marine contribute the largest proportion of litter,
belong to the group most impacting ecosystems. For example, 8 million tonnes which is mostly transported by rivers or

PART 2
© Bo Eide

PART 2
TABLE 6.3 Summary assessment — pressures and impacts on marine ecosystems
Past trends Where targeted management measures to address well-known pressures have been implemented
(10-15 years) consistently, negative trends are beginning to reverse, e.g. in nutrients and some contaminants.
However, this success is only partial, as many trends in pressures have not changed. The underlying
climatic drivers of marine ecosystem degradation appear not to be improving, as related pressures, such
as sea surface temperature and ocean acidification, are worsening. The same is true of deoxygenation.
Outlook to 2030 Legacy hazardous substances and heavy metals, non-indigenous species, and marine litter will continue
to impact marine ecosystems. Ocean acidification, deoxygenation and sea surface temperature all have
worsening trajectories. The use of marine resources and space is expected to increase. Meeting agreed policy
goals for the marine environment across all policies and mitigating climate change are essential to preventing
further damage and/or achieving full recovery of marine ecosystems, preserving their long-term resilience and
changing the outlook to 2030.
2020 EU marine regions are at risk of not achieving the Marine Strategy Framework Directive’s good
environmental status for key pressures such as those on commercially exploited fish and shellfish stocks
 (in the Mediterranean and Black Seas), introductions of non-indigenous species, eutrophication,
contaminants and marine litter by 2020.
Robustness There is large variation in the availability of pressure-related information across marine regions and gaps
in the data remain. Monitoring of key pressures should be improved and assessment threshold values
established. Formal reporting of progress in the implementation of EU marine environmental legislation is
often delayed and/or inadequate. The available outlook information is limited, so the assessment of outlook
relies primarily on expert judgement.
directly discharged from coastal activities, has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over
e.g. tourism. The main marine sources Achieving the Marine Strategy the industrial era and continues to do
of litter are fisheries, aquaculture and so (EEA, 2016a). Global mean sea level
Framework Directive’s good
shipping (ETC/ICM (forthcoming), 2019). rose by 19.5 cm from 1901 to 2015, at
environmental status across an average rate of 1.7 mm/year, but
Underwater noise all EU marine regions remains with significant decadal variation. The
unlikely by 2020. rise in sea level relative to land along
Underwater noise is a geographically most European coasts is projected to be
widespread pressure. In the absence of a similar to the global average, with the
methodology for operational monitoring exception of the northern Baltic Sea and
and of assessment thresholds, the the northern Atlantic coast (EEA, 2017).
severity of its effects on marine life cannot can affect marine animals, e.g. marine Whole marine ecosystem responses
be determined. Anthropogenic sounds mammals, in various ways, ranging from to these changes are largely unknown,
can lead to continuous underwater changes in behaviour to death (ETC/ICM although effects on individual species
noise (mainly from marine traffic) and (forthcoming), 2019). or species groups have been observed
impulsive underwater noise, which is or projected (Fabry et al., 2008; NOAA,
short pulses with high energy levels Climate change 2013; EEA, 2017). For example, in more
(arising mainly from impact pile driving, acidic and food-limited conditions,
seismic exploration, explosions and Anthropogenic climate change is cod larvae may experience reduced
sonar systems). The sources and spatial a pressure causing changes to, for functionality or impairment of their
distribution of continuous and impulsive example, the temperature and acidity organs as they expend more energy on
underwater noise are starting to be (pH) of Europe’s seas. These have growth and ossification of their skeletal
analysed in order to characterise the all warmed considerably since 1870, elements (Stiasny et al., 2019). Impacts
potential exposure of marine ecosystems and this warming, which has been from seawater warming include the
to this pressure. According to the scientific particularly rapid since the late 1970s, replacement of cold water species with
literature, both types of underwater noise continues (Figure 6.4). Ocean surface pH warm water species, as observed in

PART 2
FIGURE 6.5 Trends in the number of assessed commercially exploited fish and shellfish stocks in the
North‑East Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea since 1945 and in the progress of these stocks towards
achieving the MSFD’s ‘good environmental status’ for descriptor 3, ‘Commercial fish and shellfish’,
on the basis of their mortality and/or reproductive capacity
Metrics relative to GES threshold Number of assessed stocks

12 80
75
11
70
10
65
9 60
55
8
50
7
45
6 40
35
5
30
4
25
3 20
15
2
10
1
5
0 0
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Assessed stocks Fishing mortality Reproductive capacity Precautionary limit
Notes: This figure shows trends in the status of commercially exploited fish and shellfish stocks assessed between 1946 and 2016 expressed
as two metrics: fishing mortality (F) and reproductive capacity (i.e. spawning stock biomass, SSB) relative to the MSFD thresholds for
good environmental status (GES). These thresholds relate to the stocks’ maximum sustainable yield (MSY), i.e. FMSY and MSY Btrigger (the
biomass at the lowest level of the range around SSBMSY able to produce MSY), respectively. For fishing mortality, 1 is the value (F = FMSY)
above which exploitation is unsustainable, while for reproductive capacity a value of 1 is a precautionary limit (SSB ≥ MSY Btrigger) below
which there is a high risk that reproductive capacity will be impaired. The figure is based on 83 fish stocks in the North-East Atlantic
Ocean and Baltic Sea for which F and/or SSB could be calculated against reference points in the period 1946-2016, i.e. stocks for which
adequate information exists at the regional level to calculate one or the other metric or both. Both F/FMSY and SSB/MSY Btrigger could be
calculated only for a maximum of 74 stocks. Note that the value of the metrics is determined by an increasing number of stocks and,
therefore, part of the trend may be explained by new stocks being introduced into the analysis over the years. However, from 2013
onwards, the suite of stocks assessed remained stable.
copepods and fish in the North‑East These assessments indicate that Europe’s seas could be degrading and
Atlantic Ocean (EEA, 2017). Sea level rise targeted management measures can so significant systemic changes may be
and the increased frequency of storm serve to reduce pressures when the under way.
events add to the coastal squeeze and pressure-impact causality is clear and
may have potentially severe effects strong. They also indicate that, overall,
(Gynther et al., 2016). management measures have either 6.3.3
not yet taken effect or are insufficient From the past to the future — Europe
Marine ecosystems affected by climate to prevent, reduce or reverse marine depends on the seas
change may also become more ecosystem impacts or that they are ►See Table 6.4
vulnerable to other anthropogenic not effective in the context of multiple
pressures (ETC/ICM (forthcoming), pressures and cumulative impacts upon Oceans and seas have been the foundation
2019); Breitburg et al., 2018). them. This implies that the resilience of for the development of European societies

PART 2
TABLE 6.4 Summary assessment — sustainable use of the seas
Past trends The use of Europe’s seas continues to increase, with some established sectors declining or stagnating
(10-15 years) while new sectors are emerging. This puts marine ecosystems at risk and could undermine the sea’s
capacity to supply ecosystem services.
Outlook to 2030 It is envisaged that the use of Europe’s seas will continue to increase in the light of the blue economy
objectives. There is a mixed pattern of development for individual sectors. For example, oil and gas extraction
has peaked in the North Sea, but offshore wind is growing. As competition for marine resources and space
increases, coordination among stakeholders and policy integration will be needed to ensure that activities are
sustainable.
2020 Significant progress has been made in reaching maximum sustainable yields for commercially exploited fish
and shellfish stocks in the North-East Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea. However, most assessed stocks in the
 Mediterranean and Black Seas are still overfished. Although commercial fisheries are very widespread and
have a high impact, they represent just one of the uses of the sea. This means that other policy targets could
be at risk from other uses and the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures.
Robustness There is large variation in the availability of sector-related information across sectors and marine regions
and gaps in the data remain. The available outlook information is limited, so the assessment of outlook relies
primarily on expert judgement.
throughout history, and the mutually maximum sustainable yield (FAO, 2018;
93.9 %
supportive relationship between oceans Froese et al., 2018; EEA, 2019c). In fact, in
and humans has never been more widely these seas there is ‘no trend, to indicate
recognised than it is today. any improvement in the exploitation
since the implementation of the 2003
The maritime economy, often referred of assessed commercial reform of the [common fisheries policy]’
to as the ‘blue economy’, is a powerful fish and shellfish stocks in (Jardim et al., 2018, p. 48).
driver of socio-economic growth in
the Mediterranean Sea and
the EU. It is estimated that global Shipping, including maritime transport,
maritime‑related activities have an
85.7 % in the Black Sea are has also been an important maritime
output of EUR 1.3 trillion — a figure set still overfished. activity for centuries. With the rise
to double by 2030 (EC, 2017). Maritime of globalisation and access to new
activities include both traditional markets, shipping traffic soared from
sectors, such as fishing, shipping, the 1950s until the economic crisis in
tourism and extracting resources, and 2008 (WOR, 2010). In 2016, roughly 3 860
emerging sectors, such as offshore over the last couple of decades and have million tonnes of goods and commodities
wind, aquaculture and deep-sea mining had significant impacts on the marine were handled in EU Member State (EU-28)
(EU, 2017, 2014), as well as new ocean environment and coastal communities. ports, while passenger visits amounted
infrastructures, e.g. floating nuclear In recent years, more assessed to over 383 million people (EEA, 2016c;
plants. All of these activities compete commercially exploited fish and shellfish Eurostat, 2017). The sector contributes
with each other for the use of marine stocks have been fished sustainably, i.e. an estimated EUR 70 734 million in
resources and space. One of the solutions at maximum sustainable yield, in the gross value added to Europe’s economy,
for realising the untapped potential of the North-East Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea. employing roughly 1.74 million people
seas will be ensuring that maritime spatial Signs of recovery of the reproductive (COGEA et al., 2017).
planning fully supports the achievement capacity of some of these stocks are also
of good environmental status. being seen (Figure 6.5; Chapter 13). Very Some industries, such as oil and gas
few assessed stocks in the Mediterranean extraction, are stagnating and declining
Of the more traditional uses of the seas, Sea (6.1 %) and Black Sea (14.3 %) are in some regions, while other industries
fisheries have faced significant challenges currently on track to being exploited at are emerging. An example of the latter

PART 2
TABLE 6.5 Summary assessment — marine protected areas
Past trends In the period 2012-2016, the extent of marine protected areas (MPAs) almost doubled within EU marine
(10-15 years) waters to an area equal to that designated in the period 1995-2011.
Outlook to 2030 The challenge to ensure that EU MPA networks are coherent, representative and well-managed remains to
deliver tangible benefits for biodiversity by 2030.
2020 In 2018, the EU had met part of Aichi biodiversity target 11 and Sustainable Development Goal 14.5 relating
 to designating 10 % of its seas within networks of MPAs. Whether the MPA network will deliver measurable
benefits for biodiversity remains to be documented.
Robustness There is good information available on the spatial coverage of MPAs. There is little information available on
how effective management measures are inside MPAs and, thus, whether they are as effective in protecting
marine biodiversity as they could/should be.
is the offshore wind industry’s continued networks of MPAs are a key measure
expansion into marine territory. Europe’s for protecting the marine biodiversity
installed offshore capacity reached of Europe’s seas (EU, 2008a). MPAs
15 780 MW (= 4 149 grid-connected wind are geographically distinct zones for
turbines) in 2017, the year by which which protection objectives are set.
11 European countries had established The EU seas covered by the They constitute a connected system
92 wind farms (including those under network of marine protected for safeguarding biodiversity and
construction). Most of these are found maintaining marine ecosystem health
areas almost doubled
in Denmark, Germany, Sweden and the and the supply of ecosystem services.
United Kingdom (4C Offshore, 2018). from 2012 to 2016. Networks of MPAs operate together
Turkey has announced its intention to at various scales and cover a range of
build first offshore windfarm projects as protection levels, which work towards
candidate renewable energy resource activities generating economic value objectives that individual MPAs cannot
zones in the Aegean Sea, the Sea of as well as social and cultural benefits. achieve (EEA, 2015a, 2018c).
Marmara and the Black sea. As competing activities continue to
increase, so will the cumulative impact on Approximately 75 % of EU MPAs
Similarly, tourism is on the rise. Between ecosystems already affected by centuries are sites designated under the
2006 and 2016, EU-28 (foreign) tourist of use. Such expected growth, combined EU Habitats Directive (EEC 1992;
arrivals increased by approximately with the potentially degrading resilience Chapter 3) and the EU Birds Directive
60 % (Eurostat, 2018). In 2014, Europe’s of the ecosystems of Europe’s seas, (EEC, 1979). These are an important
coastal tourism accounted for 24.5 % highlights the need for ecosystem‑based element of the Natura 2000 network
of the EU’s maritime economy, management more than ever if Europe’s of protected sites — the largest
generating over EUR 86 436 million in seas and their limited resources are to be coordinated network of protected
gross value added (direct and indirect) used in a sustainable manner. areas in the world (EEA, 2018c). The
and employing over 3.1 million people remaining MPAs are sites designated
(COGEA et al., 2017). Such increases in only under national legislation (Agnesi
tourism are dependent upon healthy 6.3.4 et al., 2017). The next step is to make
coastal and marine ecosystems and Marine protected areas — significant the Natura 2000 network coherent
simultaneously put pressure upon them. progress has been made and representative ensuring adequate
►See Table 6.5 coverage of the diversity of the
Overall, the seas provide resources constituent ecosystems, in line with
and space for a wide variety of human Marine protected areas (MPAs) and Article 13 of the MSFD.

PART 2
FIGURE 6.6 The EU part of the regional sea surface area (km2) and the area covered by MPAs in 2016
Baltic Sea 368 720 km2 16.5 % North-East Atlantic Ocean 4 082 719 km2 9.9 %
Celtic Seas Macaronesia

930 900 km2 1 857 164 km2
Black Sea 64 384 km2 14.2 %
Mediterranean Sea 1 274 892 km2 11.7 %
Western Mediterranean Sea

659 989 km2
14.2 %
Greater North Sea

incl. Kattegat and
English Channel
491 305 km2
27.1 %
19.6 %
Bay of Biscay
and the Iberian Coast
Ionian Sea and Central Aegean- 803 350 km2
Mediterranean Sea Levantine
240 068 km2 Sea
190 382 km2
3%
Adriatic Sea
120 069 km2
5.8 % 2.6 % 9.9 % 3.3 %
Note: The quadrants illustrate the relative size of the EU part of each regional sea as well as the proportion of MPAs within them. The dark
shading indicates the area covered by MPAs and the percentages are given in figures.
Sources: Agnesi et al. (2017) and EEA (2018c).

PART 2
From 2012 to 2016, the EU almost across all policies are not sufficient to
doubled its network of MPAs. By 2018 it Knowledge gaps remain achieve the MSFD’s good environmental
had reached Aichi biodiversity target 11 status by 2020. The risk extends to
in relation to the availability
— protecting at least 10 % of its sea area whether they will be able to mitigate
within MPAs (United Nations, 2015) — of quality information the additional adverse effects of the
albeit with some variation between the to evaluate progress. expected increase in maritime activities
marine regions. Five out of 10 regional in forthcoming decades. The risk is
seas are still short of reaching the target compounded by having to achieve
of 10 % coverage of MPAs (EEA, 2018c; both good environmental status and
Figure 6.6). the ambitions of the EU’s blue growth
strategy in a climate change context.
With an entire MPA network emissions of hazardous substances,
designated across the marine to achieve sustainable fisheries, and With many long-term policy
territories of 23 EU countries, the to establish a representative, coherent commitments coming to fruition in the
next step is to ensure that they network of well-managed MPAs. period 2018-2021, now is the time to
deliver the best possible benefits for make the most of the EU marine policy
marine biodiversity. This includes Some targeted management measures, framework, including reflecting on
actions such as accurately measuring or other legal obligations, resulting what should be done differently in the
the degree to which MPAs and the from EU policy have been fully next decade if the EU wants to achieve
network as a whole are achieving their implemented and have been successful its long-term vision for clean, healthy,
intended purpose, including general in reducing, or even removing, some resilient and productive seas.
protection of marine biodiversity well-known marine pressures. Other
(see also EEA (2018c)). It has been measures/obligations have not The implementation of this framework
demonstrated that European MPA been implemented or implemented shows, at best, a mixed picture.
networks are being affected by only in part and/or slowly and with There are several positive examples
commercial fisheries more than limited success. The latter could of recovery of specific biodiversity
unprotected areas, which raises also be because there is a time lag features across Europe’s seas, reversing
questions about the true benefit of the between implementing a strong increasing pressure trends, and
MPA network (Dureuil et al., 2018). pressure‑impact causality measure improved sustainability of some uses
and its having an effect. Furthermore, of the sea. However, these partial
However, the establishment of MPA it could also be because the measures successes seem barely to register
networks in EU waters remains a were not designed to deal with multiple against the observed continued
success story, showing the types of pressures and their cumulative impacts. degradation and the expected increased
achievements that are possible when There are also large differences in use of the sea, as well as the observed
countries work towards a common goal, progress in achieving policy targets and forecast worsening of climate
such as halting the loss of biodiversity. within and between EU marine regions change impacts on Europe’s seas.
However, management efforts need to (e.g. Figure 6.6). Challenges remain
be improved. with regard to the amount and quality Overall, it seems that the knowledge
of information available to evaluate and political vision to facilitate a
progress. For example, no Member change are available, but the question
6.4 State had adequately reported the up- of whether Europe has the necessary
Responses and prospects of to-date state of its marine waters by the resolve to act quickly and effectively
meeting agreed targets and October 2018 deadline required by the enough remains. The root of most
objectives MSFD. In addition, while Member States problems suffered by Europe’s seas
have established a few new measures, is not only the low rate and slow
Overall, EU policy is set for both the long- as well as measures integrating policy speed of policy implementation but
term recovery and the sustainable use of needs across several policies when also because there seems to be poor
Europe’s seas. However, while the policy implementing the MSFD, certain coherence and coordination between
framework is among the most ambitious pressures are still addressed through all the policies aiming to protect
and comprehensive in the world, some fragmented, ineffective approaches. them. Thus, policymakers should all
of its objectives and goals, or variants work towards ensuring that the limits
thereof, have been in place for decades. As a result, there seems to be a risk that to the sustainable use of Europe’s
These include the ambitions to cease the measures currently implemented seas, represented by achieving good

PART 2
FIGURE 6.7 Timelines for achieving good environmental status as reported by Member States
%
02 Non-Indigenous Species
03 Commercial fish and shellfish
04 Eutrophication
07 Hydrographical changes
08 Contaminants
09 Contaminants in seafood
09 Marine litter
011 Underwater noise and energy
01, 4 Birds
01, 4 Fish (and cephalopods)
01, 4 Fish (and reptiles)
01,4 Water column habitats
01,4,6 Seabed habitats
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Already achieved By 2020 After 2020 Reports it cannot estimate Does not report any information
Note: Member States integrated national, EU and international policies during their implementation of the MSFD to identify existing
management measures and gaps in current management. New or additional measures were assigned to fill the gaps identified to
address all relevant pressures on the marine environment. Assessment showed that many pressures had not been addressed in
existing legislation and that additional efforts will be needed to achieve good environmental status. The timelines for achieving good
environmental status therefore vary among topics.
Source: EC (2018a).
environmental status under the MSFD, ineffective approach to tackling the A lot has been achieved since Europe
are respected. Currently, some policies pressure’ (EC, 2018a). first became aware of the effects of
are giving an impetus for growth that pollution on the marine environment,
does not seem to fulfil this premise. In conclusion, there may be less of a on marine biodiversity and on human
need to come up with specific new health. However, ensuring that Europe’s
When assessing the programmes of policies, or legislative initiatives, or to seas keep on supplying the ecosystem
measures established under the MSFD, reiterate existing deadlines to meet services upon which people’s basic needs
the European Commission concluded legislation/policy, but rather a need and well-being, and the economy, depend
that, while EU Member States have to focus efforts on implementing and requires managing the unprecedented
made considerable efforts, it appears integrating existing policies and on amount of human activities that are
unlikely that good environmental status fulfilling the intentions behind several competing to use them — and to do so
will be achieved by 2020 (Figure 6.7), as thematic policy visions. In this respect, in the context of climate change. This
concluded in the present assessment. it seems that Europe is still learning: will entail improved policy integration
One of the reasons is that ‘certain (1) about the limits to the sustainable and a firm commitment to implementing
pressures of transboundary nature, use of its seas; and (2) how to address already existing policies as well as
the lack of regional or EU coordination challenges of a transboundary or increasing cooperation within Europe and
potentially leads to a fragmented and ecosystem-based nature. with its neighbours.

07.
Climate change
2
© Janez Zalaznik, WaterPIX/EEA
3
SOER 2020/Climate Change
PART 2
Key messages
• Climate change is happening. factors. The carbon and energy intensity the European Regional Development
Several climate variables, including of the EU economy is lower now than it Fund and the Cohesion Fund) but not
global and European temperatures was in 1990 because of improvements in others (such as agriculture, rural
and sea level, have repeatedly broken in energy efficiency and the use of development and fisheries).
long‑term records in recent years. less carbon-intensive fuels, especially
Climate change has substantially renewable energy sources. Transport • Looking ahead, a significant step-up
increased the occurrence of climate remains one of the biggest challenges in reductions is needed to achieve the
and weather extremes, including heat ahead to decarbonising the economy. EU’s objective of an 80-95 % reduction
waves, heavy precipitation, floods and in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
droughts, in many regions of Europe. • Climate change adaptation is While the EU is on track to achieve
increasingly mainstreamed in EU its 2020 targets on greenhouse gas
• Climate change is creating risks policies, programmes, strategies and emissions and renewable energy,
to, and in some cases opportunities projects. Most EEA member countries progress on the energy efficiency
for, the environment, the economy now have a national adaptation target remains insufficient. Rising
and people. The adverse impacts and strategy, and an increasing number energy consumption trends and recent
risks are expected to intensify as the of cities are adopting local adaptation greenhouse gas projections from
climate continues to change. Europe strategies. The EU adaptation strategy Member States indicate that the EU
is also affected by indirect climate adopted in 2013 has delivered on is not yet on track towards its 2030
change impacts occurring outside most of its objectives; however, its climate and energy targets.
Europe through various pathways, evaluation also identified areas where
such as trade and migration. To limit further action is needed. • The magnitude and pace of future
the adverse effects of climate change, climate change, and thus the long-term
strong mitigation and adaptation • The EU is broadly on track towards adaptation challenges, depend on the
measures are needed. meeting the target of spending at least success of global mitigation efforts to
20 % of its budget for 2014-2020 on keep the increase in global temperature
• EU greenhouse gas emissions have climate-related measures, but further to well below 2 °C compared with
decreased by about 22 % in the past efforts are needed. This target seems to pre‑industrial levels and to pursue
27 years due to the combined result of have triggered a shift in climate-related efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C,
policies and measures and economic spending in some policy areas (such as as stated in the Paris Agreement.

objectives/targets
Past trends Outlook

(10-15 years) to 2030 2020 2030 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions Improving trends Developments show Largely Largely not Largely not
and mitigation efforts dominate a mixed picture  on track  on track  on track
Energy efficiency Improving trends Developments show Partly Largely not Largely not
dominate a mixed picture  on track  on track  on track
Renewable energy sources Improving trends Developments show Largely Largely not Largely not
dominate a mixed picture  on track  on track  on track
Climate change and Deteriorating trends Deteriorating Largely not

impacts on ecosystems dominate developments dominate  on track
Climate change risks Deteriorating trends Deteriorating Partly

to society dominate developments dominate  on track
Climate change adaptation Improving trends Improving Partly

strategies and plans dominate developments dominate  on track
explained in Section 7.3, Key trends and outlooks (Tables 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.7, 7.8 and 7.9).
4 SOER 2020/Climate Change

PART 2
07.
Climate change
7.1 or to exploit any opportunities that

Scope of the theme may arise. Adaptation comprises a
wide range of measures, including
Climate change is a key environmental, ‘grey adaptation’ (e.g. building coastal
economic and social challenge globally protection infrastructure in response to
and in Europe. On the one hand, most Mitigation and adaptation rising sea levels), ‘green and green-blue
economic activities are contributing to are both necessary to adaptation’ (e.g. planting trees in cities
climate change by emitting greenhouse to reduce the urban heat island effect)
gases or affecting carbon sinks
limit the risks related to and ‘soft adaptation’ (e.g. improving
(e.g. through land use change); on climate change. emergency management to deal with
the other hand, all ecosystems, many natural disasters).
economic activities and human health and
well‑being are sensitive to climate change.
7.2
This chapter gives an overview of is also addressed in this chapter, as it Policy context
the causes of climate change, of past is the key source of greenhouse gases.
and projected changes in the climate Climate change is a global problem, Mitigation and adaptation are both
system and of selected impacts on the which requires global action. The global necessary to limit the risks related to
environment, the economy and people. policy framework comprises the United climate change. However, the measures
Further information on climate change Nations Framework Convention on and policies are rather different.
impacts is available in Chapters 3, 4, 5 Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto
and 6. This chapter also addresses the Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The Mitigation of climate change has a
two fundamental policy areas to limit EU and all EEA member countries have quantitative target that was agreed at
the adverse impacts of climate change: ratified these international treaties, and the global level and is delivered through
mitigation and adaptation. Both policies they are jointly responsible for their a set of climate and energy policies
can be facilitated by targeted financing. implementation. with specific targets and objectives for
2020, 2030 and 2050. The central aim of
Mitigation of climate change means Adaptation to climate change involves the Paris Agreement is to keep the rise
reducing the emissions of greenhouse making adjustments to minimise the in global temperature well below 2 °C
gases and enhancing their sinks. Energy adverse impacts of climate change above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
SOER 2020/Climate change 155

PART 2
Climate change mitigation including energy
Limit human-induced global temperature rise to well below 2 °C Paris Agreement (UN) Permanent Binding
(and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C) above international
pre-industrial levels — building on the UNFCCC Treaty’s ultimate treaty
objective to stabilise GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
20 % cut in GHG emissions (from 1990 levels) EU 2020 climate and energy package 2020 Binding
GHG target
20 % of EU energy from renewable sources
20 % improvement in energy efficiency
To achieve the 20 % target:
EU ETS sectors would have to cut emissions by 21 %

(compared with 2005)
Non-ETS sectors would need to cut emissions by 10 %

(compared with 2005) — this is translated into individual binding
targets for Member States
At least 40 % cuts in GHG emissions (from 1990 levels) EU 2030 climate and energy 2030 Binding
framework GHG target
At least 32% of EU energy from renewable sources
At least 32.5 % improvement in energy efficiency
To achieve the target of at least 40 %:
EU ETS sectors would have to cut emissions by 43 %

(compared with 2005) — to this end, the ETS has been reformed
and strengthened for its next trading period (2021-2030)
Non-ETS sectors would need to cut emissions by 30 %

(compared with 2005) — individual binding targets for Member
States were adopted in May 2018
By 2050, the EU’s objective, in the context of necessary reductions EU 2050 low-carbon roadmap and 2050 Non-binding
by developed countries as a group, according to the IPCC, European Council conclusions commitment
is to reduce GHG emissions by 80-95 % below 1990 levels of 29/30 October 2009
Milestones: 40 % cuts in emissions by 2030 and 60 % by 2040
A climate-neutral economy: net zero GHG emissions by 2050 European Commission strategy: 2050 Non-binding
A Clean Planet for All: a European commitment
strategic long-term vision for a
prosperous, modern, competitive
and climate neutral economy
Overarching objectives: secure, competitive and sustainable energy Energy Union 2030, 2050 EU strategy
Specific objectives: expand security of energy supply; develop a

connected EU energy market; reduce energy demand and improve
energy efficiency; decarbonise the energy mix; and increase research
and development
Climate change adaptation
Decisive progress in adapting to the impact of climate change 7th EAP (EU) (EU, 2013a) 2020 Non-binding
commitment
Strengthen resilience and the capacity to adapt to climate-related SDG target 13.1 (UN); Paris 2030 Non-binding
hazards and natural disasters in all countries Agreement (UN) (UN, 2015; commitment
UNFCCC, 2015b)
Integrate climate change measures into national policies, SDG target 13.1 (UN); Paris 2030 Non-binding
strategies and planning Agreement (UN) (UN, 2015; commitment
UNFCCC, 2015b)
156 SOER 2020/Climate change

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TABLE 7.1 Overview of selected policy objectives and targets (cont.)
Climate change adaptation
All Member States are encouraged to adopt comprehensive EU strategy on adaptation to climate 2017 Non-binding
adaptation strategies change (Commission Communication commitment
and Council Conclusions) (EC, 2013b;
Council of the European Union, 2013)
Climate-proofing EU action: mainstream adaptation measures EU strategy on adaptation to climate N/A Non-binding
into EU policies and programmes change (Commission Communication commitment
and Council Conclusions) (EC, 2013b;
Council of the European Union, 2013)
Climate change finance
Climate action objectives will represent al least 20 % of EU spending EU Multi-annual financial framework 2014- Non-binding
(in the period 2014-2020) (Commission proposal, endorsed by 2020 commitment
Council and Parliament) (EC, 2011;
European Council, 2013)
Developed countries will jointly mobilise USD 100 billion annually Copenhagen Accord (UN), Paris 2020 International
to address the mitigation and adaptation needs of developing Agreement (UN), SDG target 13.4 (UN) treaty
countries (UNFCCC, 2010, 2015b; UN, 2015)
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; ETS, Emissions Trading System; GHG, greenhouse gas; IPCC, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; UN, United Nations; UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change; N/A, non-applicable.
efforts to limit the temperature increase energy and energy efficiency targets climate change. As a result, the policy
to 1.5 °C. These global temperature and objectives for 2020 and 2030 targets for adaptation at the global and
targets correspond directly to remaining were included as headline targets in European levels are less quantifiable,
carbon budgets, i.e. to the amount of the Energy Union strategy (EC, 2015c), and most monitoring activities so far
greenhouse gases that human activities along with minimum targets for focus on the adaptation process rather
can emit without exceeding a given level electricity interconnection (10 % by than on quantitative outcomes. In
of warming. The EU has implemented 2020 and 15 % by 2030), and flanked addition to the adaptation policies and
many legislative acts aiming to reduce by objectives in other dimensions. targets mentioned explicitly in Table 7.1,
the emissions of the most important The Energy Union and Climate Action climate change adaptation also requires
greenhouse gases and to enhance their Regulation of 2018 (EU, 2018b) sets ‘mainstreaming’ — or making part of
sinks (see Table 7.1). One feature of the out the legislative foundation that is everyday practice — in many other EU
EU’s domestic climate legislation is that meant to deliver a reliable, inclusive, policies addressing climate‑sensitive
it has the key objective of delivering cost‑efficient, transparent and issues. Of particular relevance are
on the international commitments predictable governance of the Energy policies for disaster risk reduction (e.g.
agreed by heads of state. The other Union and climate action, for the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, EU
feature is the internal consistency purpose of ensuring that the 2030 and action plan on the Sendai Framework for
between the quantified efforts required long-term objectives and targets of Disaster Risk Reduction), the common
by Member States and the agreed the Energy Union, in line with the 2015 agricultural policy, the common fisheries
international objectives binding the Paris Agreement, are achieved. policy, the Floods Directive, the Water
EU Member States and the EU as a Framework Directive, the forest policy,
whole. Specifically, with regard to the In contrast, there is no single metric for the nature directives, and policies related
provision and use of energy, renewable measuring the success of adaptation to to public health. The effectiveness

PART 2
FIGURE 7.1 Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in the EU-28, 1990-2050
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e)
6 000
5 000
-20 %
-21,7 % -30 %
4 000
-36 %
-40 %
3 000
2 000
2050 goal: -80 %
1 000
2050 goal: -95 %
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Historic greenhouse gas emissions 2020 target

Projections 'with existing measures' 2030 target
Projections 'with additional measures'
Note: The GHG emission trends, projections and target calculations include emissions from international aviation, and exclude emissions
and removals from the LULUCF sector. The ‘with existing measures’ scenario reflects existing policies and measures, whereas the ‘with
additional measures’ scenario considers the additional effects of planned measures reported by Member States.
Source: EEA, based on the final 2019 EU GHG inventory submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and
projections reported by EU Member States under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation.
of adaptation measures often can framework, earmarked financial 7.3

only be assessed after an extreme resources, and targeted information Key trends and outlooks
climate-related event. However, there and knowledge. There are quantified
is increasing evidence globally and in targets for climate change finance at 7.3.1
Europe that well-designed adaptation the global and the European levels Emissions of greenhouse gases and
measures in response to extreme events (see Table 7.1). Interestingly, none of climate change mitigation efforts
have decreased the death toll caused these targets distinguishes between ►See Table 7.4
by subsequent heat waves and the mitigation and adaptation. Further
economic damage from subsequent river support for adaptation measures in Snapshot of the EU’s greenhouse gas
flooding (Fouillet et al., 2006; WMO and Europe is provided by, among others, emission trends and projections
WHO, 2015; Thieken et al., 2016). the Copernicus Climate Change
Service (C3S) and dedicated research Figure 7.1 shows that the total
Mitigation and adaptation are projects (e.g. under Horizon 2020 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
facilitated by a suitable policy JPI Climate). excluding land use, land use change

PART 2
FIGURE 7.2 Greenhouse gas emissions by main sector in the EU-28, 1990-2017
MtCO2e
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200 Energy supply
1 000 Industry
Transport
800
Residential and commercial
600
Agriculture
400
Waste
200 International aviation
0 International shipping
-200 Carbon dioxide from biomass
LULUCF
-400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Note: The sectoral aggregations are:

Energy supply CRF 1A1 (energy industries) + 1B (fugitives); industry CRF 1A2 (manufacturing industries and construction) + CRF 2
(industrial processes); transport CRF 1.A.3; residential and commercial CRF 1A4a (commercial) + CRF 1A4b (residential); agriculture
CRF 1A4c (agriculture, forestry and fishing) + CRF 3 (agriculture); waste CRF 5 (waste); land use, land use change and forestry CRF 4
(LULUCF).
International aviation, international shipping and CO2 biomass are memorandum items according to UNFCCC reporting guidelines and
are not included in national GHG totals. International shipping is not included in any targets under the UNFCCC or the Kyoto Protocol.
International aviation is included in the EU’s 2020 and 2030 GHG targets. CO2 from biomass is reported separately to avoid any
double‑counting of emissions from biomass loss in the LULUCF sector.
Source: EEA.
and forestry (LULUCF) and including will therefore be needed to reach the On an aggregate level, Figure 7.2 shows
international aviation declined by 2030 target and, even more substantial that GHG emissions decreased in the
1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide efforts, to reach the 2050 objective majority of sectors between 1990 and
equivalent (CO2e) between 1990 and (EEA, 2018j). 2017, with the notable exception of
2017. This represents a reduction of domestic and international transport.
22 % in the past 27 years. The EU is the sum of its Member States The largest decrease in emissions in
and most Member States have reduced absolute terms occurred in energy
The reduction in total GHG emissions emissions since 1990 (Table 7.3). About supply and industry, although
since 1990 means that the EU remains 50 % of the EU net-decrease was agriculture, residential and commercial
on track to meet its 2020 target. accounted for by Germany and the United (i.e. buildings), and waste management
However, according to the latest Kingdom. The overall net GHG emission have all contributed to the positive
projections reported by Member States reductions achieved by most Member trend in GHG emissions since 1990. The
(EEA, forthcoming (a)), only the 2020 States were partly offset by higher GHG figure also shows the strong increase
target is within reach. Significant efforts emissions in a few Member States. in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from

PART 2
TABLE 7.2 Trends in EU emission-source categories between 1990 and 2017
Emission source category MtCO2e
Road transportation (CO2 from 1.A.3.b) 170
Refrigeration and air conditioning (HFCs from 2.F.1) 93
Aluminium production (PFCs from 2.C.3) -21
Agricultural soils: direct N2O emissions from managed soils (N2O from 3.D.1) -22
Cement production (CO2 from 2.A.1) -26
Fluorochemical production (HFCs from 2.B.9) -29
Fugitive emissions from natural gas (CH4 from 1.B.2.b) -37
Commercial/institutional (CO2 from 1.A.4.a) -38
Enteric fermentation: cattle (CH4 from 3.A.1) -43
Nitric acid production (N2O from 2.B.2) -46
Adipic acid production (N2O from 2.B.3) -56
Manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries (CO2 from 1.A.1.c) -60
Coal mining and handling (CH4 from 1.B.1.a) -66
Managed waste disposal sites (CH4 from 5.A.1) -73
Residential: fuels (CO2 from 1.A.4.b) -115
Iron and steel production (CO2 from 1.A.2.a +2.C.1) -116
Manufacturing industries (excl. iron and steel) (energy-related CO2 from 1.A.2 excl. 1.A.2.a) -253
Public electricity and heat production (CO2 from 1.A.1.a) -433
Memo items:
International aviation (CO2 from 1.D.1.a) 89
International navigation (CO2 from 1.D.1.b) 35
Total GHGs [excluding LULUCF, excluding international transport] -1 327
Total GHGs [excluding LULUCF, including international aviation] -1 237
Notes: The numbers in the table include the EU-28 and Iceland and show the change in emissions between 1990 and 2017. Only those
emission sources that have increased or decreased by more than 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent are shown in the table.
CH4, methane; CO2, carbon dioxide, N2O, nitrous oxide.
Source: EEA, based on the final 2019 EU GHG inventory submission to the UNFCCC.

PART 2
TABLE 7.3 Country comparison — climate mitigation variables and indicators by country: trends and projections
Total GHG Change in Change in GHG GHG Change in the Change in the
emissions total GHG total GHG emissions per emissions carbon total energy
in 2017 emissions, emissions, GDP in 2017 per capita intensity intensity of the
(MtCO2e) 1990-2017 1990-2017 (PPS, in 2017, of energy economy
(MtCO2e) (%) EU-28=100) (tCO2e 1990-2017 1990-2017
per person) (%) (%)
Austria 84.5 5.0 6.2 87 9.6 -20.0 -18.3
Belgium 119.4 -30.4 -20.3 103 10.5 -29.0 -27.1
Bulgaria 62.1 -40.5 -39.5 204 8.8 -6.1 -54.0
Croatia 25.5 -6.9 -21.3 114 6.2 -13.0 -20.5
Cyprus 10.0 3.6 55.7 156 11.6 2.7 -28.7
Czechia 130.5 -69.3 -34.7 157 12.3 -28.9 -48.4
Denmark 50.8 -21.3 -29.5 79 8.8 -32.9 -35.5
Estonia 21.1 -19.5 -48.0 232 16.0 -14.1 -64.8
Finland 57.5 -14.8 -20.5 109 10.4 -33.2 -24.5
France 482.0 -74.6 -13.4 79 7.2 -21.8 -25.5
Germany 936.0 -327.2 -25.9 105 11.3 -16.3 -40.1
Greece 98.9 -6.7 -6.4 156 9.2 -15.0 -13.0
Hungary 64.5 -29.7 -31.5 111 6.6 -25.5 -38.5
Ireland 63.8 7.3 12.9 84 13.3 -13.1 -66.1
Italy 439.0 -83.1 -15.9 86 7.3 -22.8 -10.8
Latvia 11.8 -14.8 -55.7 104 6.1 -31.4 -54.5
Lithuania 20.7 -27.9 -57.3 107 7.3 -23.6 -68.2
Luxembourg 11.9 -1.2 -9.2 90 20.0 -20.7 -51.0
Malta 2.6 0.3 12.2 65 5.5 -11.6 -63.3
Netherlands 205.8 -20.5 -9.1 107 12.0 -7.3 -34.2
Poland 416.3 -58.7 -12.4 178 11.0 -11.6 -61.7
Portugal 74.6 13.9 22.8 108 7.2 -8.0 -4.0
Romania 114.8 -134.1 -53.9 107 5.9 -18.1 -69.6
Slovakia 43.5 -29.9 -40.8 120 8.0 -35.2 -63.6
Slovenia 17.5 -1.2 -6.2 114 8.5 -19.0 -31.1
Spain 357.3 64.0 21.8 95 7.7 -14.6 -14.3
Sweden 55.5 -17.2 -23.7 52 5.5 -31.0 -39.8
United Kingdom 505.4 -304.4 -37.6 83 7.7 -24.7 -49.3
EU-28 4 483.1 -1 239.8 -21.7 100 8.8 -20.5 -36.3
Iceland 5.9 2.1 54.8 151 17.2 -40.3 13.4
Liechtenstein 0.2 0.0 -15.2 - 5.1 - -
Norway 54.4 2.5 4.9 81 10.3 -10.0 -22.4
Switzerland 52.6 -4.1 -7.3 46 6.2 - -
Turkey 537.4 317.6 144.5 116 6.7 -3.5 -12.8
Notes: The year 1990 is used as the reference year to show trends in GHG emissions on a comparable basis for all Member States and to assess progress
towards the EU 2020 and 2030 targets. These data should not be used to assess the achievement of climate mitigation targets of individual Member
States. GHG data are based on the final 2019 GHG inventory submissions to the UNFCCC (EEA, 2019c). GHG aggregates include international aviation
and exclude the LULUCF sector. The source of GDP data is the European Commission’s AMECO database (EC, 2019a). Where gaps were present, GDP
was estimated based on trends in the data reported to the World Bank (Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Malta and Slovakia) (World Bank, 2019).
Underpinning energy and population data are from Eurostat (Eurostat, 2019a, 2019b). For the Western Balkan countries, there is no requirement
to report GHG inventories annually using the CRF Reporter as Annex I Parties to UNFCCC do. However, climate change information, including GHG
inventories and mitigation actions, is available from the Parties’ biennial update reports (1) to the UNFCCC and from European Commission projects
such as the Environment and Climate Regional Accession Network (ECRAN (2)).
Source: EEA.
(1) https://unfccc.int/BURs
(2) http://www.ecranetwork.org/Climate

PART 2
biomass combustion, incentivised by residential and commercial (buildings),

the EU’s policy on renewables and Greenhouse gas emissions transport, waste, agriculture and the
by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme part of industry not covered by the
decreased in the majority
(EU ETS) (EEA, 2019a). Although net ETS. Of these sectors, improvements
removals from LULUCF increased over
of sectors between 1990 since 2005 have been more visible for
the period, the strong increase in CO2 and 2017. buildings, non-ETS industry and waste
emissions from biomass combustion management. For transport, emissions
highlights the rapidly increasing decreased between 2007 and 2013 but
importance of bioenergy in climate have increased consecutively in the last
and energy responses across the EU. few years for both freight and passenger
The pressures from these sectors are cars. For agriculture, emissions have
relevant not only to climate change but Between 2005 and 2017, emissions increased in the past few years, both
also to other environmental variables covered under the EU ETS decreased from livestock and from soils.
(Chapter 13). more rapidly than those from sectors
not covered by the System. ETS
On a more detailed level, Table 7.2 emissions did increase faster than Analysis of key past and future
shows that the largest emission non‑ETS emissions during the first trends and drivers
reductions ocurred in manufacturing phase of the EU ETS between 2005
industries and construction, electricity and 2007, coinciding with a period of The speed of reduction in GHG
and heat production, and in residential greater consumption of hard coal and emissions observed in the past will not
combustion. The largest decrease in lignite for power generation. Since then, be sufficient to meet the 2030 targets
emissions in relative terms took place however, ETS emissions have decreased unless there are further improvements
in waste management, due to reduced at a faster rate than non-ETS emissions. in both energy efficiency and carbon
and better controlled landfilling. GHG In addition to the improvements intensity (EEA, 2017a).
emissions from hydrofluorocarbons observed in carbon intensity and energy
(HFCs) and from road transportation efficiency in the heat and power sector, Figure 7.3 shows a comparison of key
increased substantially over the period the economic recession that started in drivers underpinning GHG emissions
1990-2017. the second half of 2008 affected ETS in three different periods (1990-2005,
sectors more than those outside the 2005-2015 and 2015-2030), based on
This represents a challenge for Member ETS (EEA, 2014b). The largest industrial information reported by EU Member
States and for achieving the 2030 installations are part of the EU ETS and States.
targets under the EU Effort Sharing the contraction in gross value added
Regulation, as transport accounts for in industry appears to have led to a Overall, the four main findings at EU
about one third of emissions covered by significant reduction in final energy level are:
the sectors in which national mitigation demand and emissions in the sector.
targets apply. When emissions from energy supply 1. Higher gross domestic product
were allocated to the end-user sectors, (GDP) would usually lead to higher
Currently, the EU’s climate mitigation EEA figures showed that the largest GHG emissions, other factors being
policy is based on a distinction between emission reductions in the period equal, because economic growth is still
GHG emissions from large industrial following the economic recession were intrinsically linked to an energy system
sources, which are governed by the largely accounted for by industry as a that remains heavily dependent on
EU ETS (EC, 2019c), and emissions whole (EEA, 2012). fossil fuels in most European countries
from sectors covered by the Effort (EEA, 2014b). Yet, the figure shows that
Sharing Decision (EC, 2019b). For the Of the net EU reduction in total GHG emissions decreased and are expected
ETS, there is an overall cap for the emissions between 2005 and 2017, two to decrease further as GDP increases,
period 2013‑2020, which puts a limit on thirds was accounted for by the ETS, and confirming that attempts to mitigate
emissions from installations by setting one third by the sectors not covered climate change do not necessarily
the maximum amount of emissions under the ETS. The sectors falling under conflict with a growing economy.
allowed during the 8-year period. For the scope of the Effort Sharing Decision In addition, the GHG intensities of
the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing (soon to become the Effort Sharing Member States have both decreased
Decision, there are binding annual Regulation) currently represent about since 1990 and converged (EEA, 2017a).
GHG emission targets for Member 60 % of total greenhouse gas emissions One reason for this convergence is the
States for the period 2013-2020. in the EU, and they broadly include strong growth in the use of renewable

PART 2
FIGURE 7.3 Drivers of reductions in GHG emissions in the EU-28, 1990-2017
Key emission drivers in the EU (%)
40
30
20
Non-energy sectors
Carbon intensity of energy

10
Energy intensity of GDP
0
GDP per capita
-6,3 %
Population
-10
-16,6 % -10,8 %
Total GHG
-20
-30
-40
2005/1990 2015/2005 2030/2015
Note: Based on final GHG inventories to the UNFCCC and projections data reported under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation by
29 May. The decomposition analysis is based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The bar segments show the changes
associated with each factor alone, holding the other factors constant. Projections at EU level have been aggregated based on Member
States’ submissions under EU reporting requirements. GHG emission projections in this figure refer to those in the ‘with existing
measures’ scenario. The EU Reference Scenario 2016 from the European Commission (based on the PRIMES and GAINS models) was
used to gap-fill incomplete reporting for specific Member States’ parameters.
Source: EEA.
energy sources in most Member decoupling between GHG emissions,

States and a clear move towards less energy and economic growth.
carbon‑intensive fuels. Due to this
strong convergence, GHG emissions 2. The lower carbon intensity
per capita and per GDP are more of energy has been a key factor
similar now across Member States Fulfilling the 2030 targets underpinning lower emissions, in
than they were in 1990. Projections by requires further energy spite of a decline in nuclear electricity
Member States suggest a continued production in recent years. This
efficiency and carbon intensity
decoupling of GHG emissions alongside positive trend has been due both to the
higher economic growth for the period
improvements. higher contribution from renewable
2015-2030. However, higher levels energy sources in the fuel mix and to
of renewables in the energy mix will the switch from more carbon‑intensive
be required to achieve complete coal to less carbon-intensive gas.

PART 2
The lower carbon intensity of energy international aviation). When additional
≈80 %
(i.e. fewer emissions from producing measures are included, the gap closes
and using energy) was, and is, to about a 36 % projected reduction
expected to remain an important compared with 1990. Whereas the EU
factor underpinning lower emissions is on track to achieve its 20 % GHG
in the future. According to Member of all EU greenhouse emission reduction target by 2020, more
States’ projections, both an increase gas emissions come from efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be
in renewable energy sources and a needed to achieve its reduction target
fossils fuels.
less carbon-intensive fossil fuel mix, of at least 40 % by 2030 (EEA, 2018j) (4).
with less coal than gas and lower oil These results suggest that efforts should,
consumption, are expected to drive together with lower energy intensity
reductions in emissions in the future. and higher efficiency, concentrate on
further improving the carbon intensity
3. The decrease in the energy of energy production and consumption.
intensity of GDP has been the largest consumption decreased faster than The transport sector remains one of
contributing factor to lower GHG non-energy emissions. Although the the key challenges to decarbonising
emissions from fossil fuel combustion effects of the non-energy sectors the economy, although all sectors of
in the past. The lower energy intensity shown in the decomposition analysis the economy should contribute to the
of economic growth can be explained appear to be modest, the actual emission reductions that are required
by improvements in energy efficiency emission reductions observed in for the EU and Member States to meet
(transformation and end use, including industrial processes, agriculture their mitigation targets.
energy savings) and the strong uptake and waste management have been
of renewables, as well as by changes substantial since 1990. The largest It is worth highlighting that,
in the structure of the economy and emission reductions are projected to notwithstanding the different trends
a higher share attributable to the occur in the energy sector, although all by country and region, warmer winters
services sector than to the more sectors of the economy are expected are another factor contributing to lower
energy-intensive industrial sector (3). to contribute to meeting climate GHG emissions in Europe. In addition,
The decrease in the energy intensity mitigation objectives. there has also been lower fuel use
of GDP is expected to remain a key due to the lower demand for space
factor in the transition to a low-carbon Overall, the same factors driving heating because of better insulation
economy and, potentially, to carbon emission reductions in the past are standards and retrofitting in buildings.
neutrality. This means continued also expected to play a key role in the There is a clear positive correlation
improvements in energy efficiency — future, although to a different degree. between heating degree‑days and
in both transformation and end use. For the EU as whole, the projected fuel use and emissions from the
overall estimates for reductions in residential sector. According to
4. The largest emission reductions GHG emissions by 2030 (with existing Eurostat data (Eurostat, 2019a), the
in the period 1990-2005 occurred policies and measures), as reported current demand for heating in Europe
in the non-energy sectors. In the by Member States, are consistent is below its long-term average (defined
period 2005‑2015, energy-related with a 30 % reduction compared with as 1980‑2004). An EEA analysis on
emissions from both production and 1990 (excluding LULUCF and including heating and cooling showed that
(3) There are various reasons for the lower share of industry in Europe’s economy. Industry can close down, become more efficient and even
relocate. Carbon footprint statistics (consumption-based approach) can be useful for assessing the impact of domestic economic activities
abroad and for analysing emission trends. Yet, the assessment of progress towards GHG mitigation targets used here is consistent with how the
targets have been defined and agreed both domestically and internationally (production-based approach). Also, while Europe may be indirectly
generating some of the emissions elsewhere for final consumption in Europe — via imported products — a share of Europe’s own emissions can
also be linked to final consumption of European goods outside Europe — via EU exports.
(4) In June 2019, the European Commission published its assessment of Member States’ draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs) to
implement the Energy Union objectives and the EU 2030 energy and climate targets. On aggregate, the projected emission reductions submitted
in draft plans appear broadly consistent with the at least 40 % GHG reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement. The significant difference
between the expected emission reductions in the draft NECPs and the 2019 projections reported by Member States under the EU Monitoring
Mechanism Regulation can be explained by the different gap-filling methodologies that have been used when the ‘with additional measures’
(WAM) scenarios were not reported by Member States.

PART 2
TABLE 7.4 Summary assessment — greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation efforts
Past trends The EU has reduced its GHG emissions by 22 % since 1990 primarily as a result of improved energy
(10-15 years) efficiency, higher shares of renewable energy and a less carbon-intensive fossil fuel mix. Other key
factors, such as structural changes in the economy towards the services sector, the effects of the
economic recession, and a lower demand for heat as a result of milder winter conditions and improved
building insulation also played a role.
Outlook to 2030 The projected reductions in GHG emissions by 2030 (with existing policies and measures), as reported by
Member States, are consistent with a 30 % reduction compared with 1990 (excluding LULUCF and including
international aviation). When additional measures are included, the projected reductions would reach about
36 % relative to 1990.
2020  The EU remains on track to achieve its 20 % 2020 targets compared with 1990.
2030  Further mitigation efforts are required to meet the target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40 % by 2030
compared with 1990.
2050  Even faster rates of emissions reductions are required to meet the 2050 objective of a reduction in GHG
emissions of 80-95 %.
Robustness GHG historical data are based on GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU under the EU
Monitoring Mechanism Regulation. Although there is uncertainty in emission estimates, GHG inventories
undergo a thorough quality assurance/quality checking and review process on an annual basis. Outlooks
are based on GHG projections data from Member States, as reported under the EU Monitoring Mechanism
Regulation. The uncertainty in the projections is higher than that in GHG inventories, but the estimates for
2020 and 2030 at EU level are fully consistent with what Member States report to the EU.
heating degree-days have decreased policies in the 1990s, and climate and Finally, in spite of good progress
by about 0.5 % per year between energy policies in the 2000s; in reducing GHG emissions and in
1981 and 2014, and particularly in decarbonising the EU economy, fossil
northern and north‑western Europe. In • the growing use of energy from fuels are still the largest source of energy
parallel, cooling degree-days increased renewable sources; and emissions in the EU. They contribute
on average by almost 2 % per year to roughly 65 % of the EU’s final energy
during the same period, particularly in • the use of less carbon-intensive fossil and to almost 80 % of all EU GHG
southern Europe (EEA, 2019g). Because fuels (e.g. the switch from coal to gas); emissions. There cannot be a complete
temperatures in Europe are projected decoupling of emissions from economic
to increase, the trends towards fewer • improvements in energy efficiency; growth in a fossil fuel-based economy.
heating degree-days and more cooling This is because energy demand, which
degree-days are also expected to • structural changes in the economy, to date is mostly fossil fuel driven,
continue — if not to accelerate. with a higher share of total GDP remains connected to economic growth.
accounted for by services and a lower This also implies that the higher the
In summary, the EU has so far managed share by more energy-intensive industry; contribution from renewables, the
to reduce its GHG emissions since easier it will be to break the link between
1990 due to a combination of factors, • the effects of economic recession; economic growth, energy demand and
including: GHG emissions. Most importantly, the
• the milder winters experienced in more the EU reduces its total energy
• the effects of a number of policies Europe on average since 1990, which has consumption through energy efficiency
(both EU and country-specific), including reduced the demand for energy to heat improvements, the less renewables need
key agricultural and environmental buildings. to be stepped up to replace fossil fuels.

PART 2
FIGURE 7.4 Primary and final energy consumption in the EU, 2005-2017, 2020 and 2030 targets and 2050 scenario
ranges for a climate neutral Europe according to the EU strategic long-term vision for 2050
Mtoe
2 000
2005-2017: -13 Mtoe per year 2017-2030: -29 Mtoe per year 2030-2050: -4 Mtoe to -14 Mtoe per year
1 800
2020 target
1 600 1483 Mtoe
2030 target Long-term vision

1 400 minimum and maximum
1273 Mtoe
average scenario ranges
1 200
1086 Mtoe
956 Mtoe
1 000
800
600
400
200 2005-2017: -6 Mtoe per year 2017-2030: -17 Mtoe per year 2030-2050: -14 to -16 Mtoe per year
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Primary energy consumption Final energy consumption
Linear trajectory PEC 2005 - 2020 target Linear trajectory FEC 2005 - 2020 target
Note: The 2020 target represents energy savings of 20 % from levels projected for 2020 in the Commission’s energy baseline scenario of
2008. The indicative energy efficiency target for 2030 represents an improved energy efficiency of at least 32.5 % compared with
2030 projections in the same energy baseline scenario. The 2050 values represent indicative ranges for primary and final energy
consumption that, combined with very high shares of energy from renewable sources in the energy mix, would allow the EU to reach
carbon neutrality by 2050. The 2050 values are drawn from the carbon neutrality scenarios ‘1.5 TECH’ and ‘1.5 LIFE’ in the in-depth
analysis accompanying the Commission’s recent strategic long-term vision for a climate-neutral economy by 2050.
PEC, primary energy consumption; FEC, final energy consumption.
Sources: EC (2008, 2018c, 2018e); EEA (forthcoming (b), forthcoming (c)); European Council (2014); Eurostat (2019a).
7.3.2 climate change, to regional and local air

Energy efficiency and renewable pollution, the contamination of soils,
energy sources surface waters and ground waters, and
► See Table 7.5 and Table 7.6 damage to sensitive ecosystems. The
environment is showing signs of stress,
Overall, the EU is reducing its Access to energy sustains the provision as our energy consumption gives rise to
energy consumption, but this of key societal services, ranging from the approximately two thirds of all EU GHG
temperature control and illumination of emissions and as air quality declines
trend has reversed since 2014.
buildings to cooking, telecommunication, to dangerous levels in certain areas,
transport, agriculture, farming, mining especially in regions that rely intensively
and manufacturing of the goods we on burning coal.
consume. However, supplying this
energy at all times gives rise to many To make the provision and use of
environmental risks and impacts, from energy more sustainable and climate
global and long-term ones, such as compatible, the EU and its Member

PART 2
FIGURE 7.5 Share of energy from renewable energy sources in the EU’s gross final energy consumption,
2005-2050
Note: Values for 2020 and 2030 represent legally binding targets for the minimum share of renewable energy sources in the EU’s gross final
energy use. The 2050 value represents the indicative share of renewable energy in the EU’s gross final consumption that, combined
with energy efficiency and other climate mitigation measures, would allow the EU to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The 2050 value is
consistent with the carbon neutrality scenarios ‘1.5 TECH’ and ‘1.5 LIFE’ in the in-depth analysis accompanying the Commission’s recent
strategic long-term vision for a climate-neutral economy by 2050. The renewable energy shares in the figure follow the accounting
methodology put forward under Directive 2009/28/EC.
Sources: EC (2013a, 2013d, 2018c, 2018e); EEA (2018b); EU (2009); Eurostat (2019a).
States have agreed to progress towards reversed since 2014 (Figure 7.4).
the energy efficiency and renewable Compared with 2005, the EU’s primary
Energy consumption gives rise
energy headline targets for 2020 energy consumption in 2016 was 10 %
and 2030 that were included in the lower as a result of decreases in final
to approximately 2/3 of EU
Energy Union framework strategy, and energy consumption, changes in the greenhouse gas emissions.
to reform environmentally harmful fuel mix used to produce electricity and
subsidies, such as support for fossil heat (higher penetration of renewables
fuels, limiting the exceptions to and natural gas) and of improved
vulnerable social groups (EC, 2015c). efficiency in the conversion of primary
energy sources (e.g. coal and gas) into
final energy. main drivers of the decrease since
Energy efficiency 2005 were the implementation of
In 2017, final energy consumption in energy efficiency policies, structural
Overall, the EU is reducing its energy the EU was 6 % lower than in 2005 changes in the economy towards less
consumption, but this trend has and 3 % higher than in 1990. The energy-intensive industrial sectors

PART 2
TABLE 7.5 Summary assessment — energy efficiency
Past trends Overall, the EU has been reducing energy consumption and decoupling energy consumption from
(10-15 years) economic growth. However, this trend has reversed since 2014 and final energy consumption is
increasing again, driven in part by economic growth (especially demand from the transport sector) and
more energy use by households.
Outlook to 2030 Further improvements in energy efficiency are expected with implementation of current policies. However, the
increasing trend in energy consumption since 2014 indicates that reversing this trend will require increased
efforts and additional national policies and measures to address energy demand in all sectors, especially
transport. Reducing energy consumption through efficiency improvements is cost-effective and has multiple
health and environmental benefits. It supports meeting the EU’s decarbonisation targets by lowering the
demand for carbon-intensive fuels, making it easier for renewables to be substituted for them.
Despite past progress, the EU is at risk of not meeting the 20 % energy efficiency target for 2020 without new
2020 and renewed efforts. New measures to reduce energy consumption agreed under the recast of the Energy

Efficiency Directive are expected to incentivise ambitious new reductions in the Member States. Without that,
assuming that the current rate of progress continues, the EU is not on track to meet its minimum 32.5 %
energy efficiency target for 2030 or to achieve its decarbonisation objectives for 2050.
2030  Indicative EU energy efficiency targets beyond 2030 have not yet been defined. However, for the EU to
achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, primary and final energy consumption across the EU would have to
decrease by at least 31 % and 43 % by 2050 compared with 2005 levels, and possibly by as much as 42 % and
47 %, respectively, combined with very high shares of energy from renewable sources in the energy mix, in
2050  accordance with the in-depth analysis accompanying the Commission’s recent strategic long-term vision for a
climate-neural economy by 2050.
Robustness Energy indicators are robust, with energy production, consumption and import data being reported to
Eurostat and to the European Commission. GHG and air pollutant emissions linked to energy production
and consumption are well understood and quantified. Other environmental aspects related to energy
efficiency (e.g. multiple social and health benefits) are less well captured. Outlook information is available and
assumptions documented. The assessment of outlooks and the prospects of meeting policy targets also relies
on expert judgement.
Since 2014, levels of primary energy Renewable energy sources
17.5 %
consumption increased again
relative to the previous year. In 2017, In 2016, the EU’s share of energy
primary energy consumption in the from renewable sources (RES) was
EU increased by 1 % compared with 17.0 %, increasing to 17.5 % in 2017.
of the EU’s energy came from 2016, primarily due to increased This gradual increase has occurred
renewable sources in 2017. energy demand in the transport sector despite an increase in energy
and increases in the household and consumption from all sources,
services sectors. As in 2016, in 2017 observed since 2014 across the EU.
both primary energy consumption Steady progress in increasing the
and final energy consumption were RES share indicates the EU has met
above the indicative trajectory towards its indicative trajectory for 2017-
and the 2008 economic downturn. The 2020. This continued increase makes 2018, as set out in the Renewable
biggest contributors to the decrease achieving the 2020 target increasingly Energy Directive (Figure 7.5).
in final energy consumption were the uncertain. Increased efforts are
industrial and household sectors (EEA, needed from Member States to bring In absolute terms, the largest
2018g). Together these are responsible the EU back on track and reverse amount of renewable energy was
for approximately four fifths of the the trend towards increasing energy consumed in the heating and cooling
decrease since 2005. consumption. energy market sector, followed by

PART 2
TABLE 7.6 Summary assessment — renewable energy sources
Past trends The EU has steadily increased the share of energy consumed from renewable sources. However, the
(10-15 years) annual increase has slowed down in recent years, especially due to increases in total final energy
consumption.
Outlook to 2030 Further increases in the use of renewable energy sources are expected with the implementation of current
policies. This requires further progress in energy efficiency and continuous further deployment of renewable
energy sources along with an increase in their uptake in all sectors, especially in transport. Achieving this
needs substantial investment across all sectors, including in industry, transport and the residential sector
(also facilitating decentralised production and empowering renewable energy self-consumers and renewable
energy communities).
The EU is overall on track to meet its 20 % renewable energy target in 2020. However, a continued increase in
2020  energy consumption poses risks for achieving the renewable energy target. The EU is not on track to meet the
10 % target for renewable energy use in transport by 2020. Achieving the minimum target of a 32 % share of
gross final energy consumption from renewable sources by 2030 will require an increased pace of deploying
renewables, together with efforts to tackle energy demand and increase investors’ confidence. While
2030  renewable energy targets beyond 2030 have not yet been defined, achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in
accordance with the in-depth analysis accompanying the Commission’s long-term vision for a climate-neutral
economy would require significant improvements in energy efficiency and the transition to 100 % renewable
energy sources in the energy mix (calculated according to the Renewable Energy Directive).
2050 
Robustness Energy indicators are robust, with energy production, consumption and import data being reported to
Eurostat and to the European Commission. These data allow tracking of energy flows from the production to
the consumption side. GHG and air pollutant emissions linked to energy production and consumption are well
understood. To some extent, they are quantified in relation to renewable energy sources. Outlook information
is available and assumptions documented. The assessment of outlooks and prospects of meeting policy
targets also rely on expert judgement.
the renewable electricity market the uptake of an increased share of
18
sector (where the growth was mainly renewables in several Member States.
driven by wind power and solar These trends pose a risk for achieving
photovoltaic systems). Insufficient the 2020 target.
progress has been achieved so far
towards the EU’s 10 % target for of the 19 warmest years on
renewable energy consumption in 7.3.3 record globally have occurred
the transport sector. In addition, Links between climate change
average year‑on‑year RES growth mitigation and adaptation
since 2000.
across the EU has slowed since
2015, compared with the average The success of global efforts to reduce
annual pace of growth recorded greenhouse gas emissions determines
between 2005 and 2014. With the magnitude and pace of climate and barriers to adaptation. At the
2020 approaching, the trajectories change and consequently the need same time, climate change is already
needed to meet the national targets for adaptation to its impacts in the occurring, and it will continue for many
are becoming steeper. Increasing long term. Ambitious global mitigation decades — and, in the case of sea level
energy consumption, persistent measures are necessary to avoid the rise, many centuries — to come, even
legal/administrative constraints and most dangerous impacts of climate under the most stringent mitigation
further market barriers are hindering change, because there are many limits policies. Therefore, societies need to

PART 2
desalinisation or air conditioning based under the Paris Agreement has

on fossil fuels. already been realised. For the three
highest of the four representative
concentration pathways (RCPs,
7.3.4 loosely known as emissions scenarios)
Since the 1950s, and in Climate change and its impacts on considered by the Intergovernmental
particular after 2000, Europe ecosystems Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the
►See Table 7.7 global mean temperature increase is
has increasingly experienced
projected to exceed 2 °C compared
heat extremes and heat waves. with pre‑industrial levels during the
All ecosystems, many economic 21st century, and most likely in the
activities and human health and 2040s (IPCC, 2013; Vautard et al., 2014).
adapt to the unavoidable impacts of well‑being are sensitive to climate ‘Very deep and rapid global emissions
past and future climate change. In variability and change. This section reductions, requiring far-reaching
summary, the short-term adaptation gives an overview of key changes in the transitions in all sectors of the economy,
challenges are largely independent climate system in the past and future, are necessary to keep the chance of
of mitigation efforts, whereas the and of selected impacts on ecosystems. limiting global mean temperature
long‑term climate challenge, and More detailed information on this topic increase to 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018).’
societies’ ability to adapt to it, are is available in the EEA report Climate
strongly dependent on the success of change, impacts and vulnerability in
global mitigation efforts. Europe 2016 — an indicator based report Heat extremes
(EEA, 2017c). Specific information about
There can be synergies as well as the European climate in a particular Annually averaged land temperatures
trade‑offs between climate change year is available in the European in Europe have increased considerably
mitigation and adaptation objectives. state of the climate reports published faster than global temperatures
One strategy that often brings about annually by the C3S (C3S, 2018a). (see above), and daily maximum
mitigation as well as adaptation benefits temperatures in Europe have increased
is ecosystem-based adaptation. This much faster than annually averaged
is a nature-based solution that uses Average temperature temperatures. This means that a given
ecosystem services as part of an overall increase in global mean temperature is
strategy to increase the resilience and Global average annual near-surface associated with a much larger increase
reduce the vulnerability of communities (land and ocean) temperature in in heat extremes in Europe.
to climate change (Secretariat of the the last decade (2009-2018) was
Convention on Biological Diversity, 2009). about 0.91‑0.96 °C warmer than the Heat extremes and heat waves in
Examples include natural water pre‑industrial average (1850-1899) Europe have increased considerably
retention measures and green (Figure 7.6). The European land area has since the 1950s, and in particular
infrastructure (EC, 2013c; NWRM, 2019). warmed by 1.6-1.7 °C over the same after 2000. Since publication of
Ecosystem‑based adaptation can period, with significant regional and the SOER 2015, all-time national
generate many environmental, social, seasonal differences. Of the 19 warmest temperature records were broken in
economic and cultural benefits years on record globally, 18 have eight EEA member countries (Poland
(EEA, 2017b; EC, 2018b). For further occurred since 2000 (EEA, 2019f). in 2015, Spain in 2017 and Belgium,
information, see the Climate‑ADAPT France, Germany, Luxembourg, the
platform (5). Ecosystem‑based adaptation All UNFCCC member countries Netherlands and the United Kingdom
can also contribute to climate change have agreed on the long-term goal in 2019), several of them with a large
mitigation by reducing emissions caused of keeping the increase in global margin. In the same period, national
by ecosystem degradation and/or by average temperature to well below records for the warmest night, which
enhancing carbon stocks. An example 2 °C compared with pre-industrial is particularly relevant from a human
of trade-offs between adaptation levels and have agreed to aim to limit health perspective, were broken in
and mitigation is energy-intensive the increase to 1.5 °C. About half of nine countries (Austria in 2015, France
the maximum admissible warming and Slovenia in 2017, the Netherlands
(5) https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/eu-adaptation-policy/sector-policies/ecosystem

PART 2
FIGURE 7.6 Average global near-surface temperature since the pre-industrial period
Annual average ˚C
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
HadCRUT4 upper limit HadCRUT4 average HadCRUT4 lower limit ERA5 GISTEMP NOAA Global Temp
Notes: HadCRUT4, Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit; GISTEMP, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; NOAA Global
Temp, National Centers for Environmental Information; ERA5, C3S by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Light
green area: 95 % confidence interval of HadCRUT4 data set. ’Pre-industrial period’ refers to 1850-1899.
Source: EEA (2019f).
and Sweden in 2018 and Belgium, Heat waves are projected to become heat waves are projected for low-
Luxembourg, Norway and the United even more frequent and longer lasting altitude river basins in southern Europe
Kingdom in 2019). Regional and/or in Europe. Under a high-emissions and for the Mediterranean coasts,
monthly temperature records were scenario, very extreme heat waves where many densely populated urban
broken in many more locations. (more severe than the 2003 heat wave centres are located (Fischer and Schär,
Human‑induced climate change made affecting southern and central Europe 2010). The effects of heat waves are
those unprecedented heat events in or the 2010 heat wave affecting eastern exacerbated in large cities due to the
Europe, which already had considerable Europe) are projected to occur as urban heat island effect.
impacts on ecosystems, economic often as every 2 years in the second
activities and human health, much more half of the 21st century (Map 7.1). The
likely (typically around 10 to 100 times) projected frequency of heat waves is Total precipitation
than they would have been in an greatest in southern and south-eastern
unchanged climate (EEA, 2019f; C3S, Europe (Russo et al., 2014). The most Observed and projected changes
2019; WMO, 2019; Vautard et al., 2019). severe economic and health risks from in precipitation vary substantially

PART 2
MAP 7.1 Extreme heat waves in the future under two different forcing scenarios
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
2020–2052 RCP4.5 2068–2100 RCP4.5
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
2020–2052 RCP8.5 2068–2100 RCP8.5

-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Heat wave frequency

Number in 33 years
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
0 1 2 3 4–6 7–12 13–15 16–33 No data Outside coverage
Note: RCP 4.5 corresponds to a medium-emissions scenario, whereas RCP 8.5 refers to a high-emissions scenario. Neither of these scenarios
is compatible with the stabilisation target of the Paris Agreement.
Source: EEA (2019f), adapted from Russo et al. (2014).

PART 2
MAP 7.2 Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
Annual precipitation Summer precipitation
60° 60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Projected change in annual and summer precipitation, 2071-2100

0 500 1000 1500 km
%
ta
da
op de
10 10
30
0
to 0
–1 –10
0 40
10 20
30
–5 5
5 5
–3 –3
–2 o –2
–
to
sc tsi
–4 < –
o
to
to
to
to
>
e
to
N
u
t
O
0
Note: Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared with the baseline period
1971-2000 for the forcing scenario RCP 8.5, which corresponds to a high-emissions scenario, based on the average of a multi-model
ensemble of regional climate models.
Source: EEA (2017e), based on Euro-Cordex data.
across regions and seasons. Annual recent decades, but there is large
precipitation has increased in Heatwaves are projected interannual variability. Various
most parts of northern Europe and European-wide studies project river
to become more frequent
decreased in parts of southern Europe. flooding to become more frequent in
These changes are projected to and to last longer north-western and central-western
exacerbate in the future with continued across Europe. parts of Europe, whereas the results
climate change, and the projected diverge in other regions (Kundzewicz
decrease is greatest in southern Europe et al., 2016, 2018). Pluvial floods and
in the summer (Map 7.2) (EEA, 2017e). flash floods, which are triggered by
particularly strong precipitation events. intense local precipitation events,
Different indices show diverging trends are likely to become more frequent
Heavy precipitation and inland for southern Europe. The intensity throughout Europe (EEA, 2017f).
floods of heavy daily precipitation events is
projected to increase over most of
The intensity of heavy precipitation Europe, most strongly in north-eastern Droughts
events, which can cause floods, has Europe (EEA, 2019h).
increased in summer and winter in Drought conditions have generally
most parts of northern Europe. The The number of very severe flooding increased in southern Europe and
largest increase has been observed for events in Europe has increased in decreased in northern Europe, but

PART 2
MAP 7.3 Projected changes in the frequency of meteorological droughts
Scenario RCP-10°
4.5 0° 10° 70° Scenario RCP-10°
18.5
0 0° 60° 70°
60° 60°
50° 50°
40°
0° 30° 40° 0° 30° 40°

10° 20° 10° 20°
Projected change in meteorological drought frequency between 1981-2010 and 2041-2070 under two climate scenarios
Number of events per 10 years

0 500 1 000 1 500 km
At least two-third of No data Outside scope

.2
.1 1
0
0. 0.1
2
0. 0.3
0. 0.4
5
0. 0.6
7
.
0. 0.
0. 0.
0.
0.
the simulations used

to
-0
-0
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
≥
<
to
agree on the sign of change

-0
5
.2
© European Commission. Source: Joint Research Centre

-0
Note: The maps show projected changes in drought frequency (number of events per decade) by mid-century (2041-2070 relative to
1981‑2010) for two different emissions scenario: RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right). For an explanation of these scenarios, see Map 7.1.
Source: Adapted from Spinoni et al. (2018). Open access under CC BY 4.0.
as well as by rising temperatures, Global and European sea level

which increases evapotranspiration.
This pattern is projected to continue Global mean sea level has increased
in the future (Map 7.3) (EEA, 2019i). by about 20 cm since 1900. The rise
Drought frequency is projected to in global sea level has accelerated
Severe floods have increased increase everywhere in Europe in in recent decades as a result of
in recent decades in Europe, spring and summer, especially over human‑induced climate change.
southern Europe, and less intensely The model simulations used in the
but with large interannual in autumn; winter shows a decrease IPCC Fifth assessment report (AR5)
variability. in drought frequency over northern projected a rise in global sea level over
Europe (Spinoni et al., 2018). The the 21st century that is likely to be
observed and projected increase in the range of 28-98 cm (depending
in drought conditions in southern on the emissions scenario), but
Europe is increasing competition substantially higher increases in sea
there are variations across seasons between different water users, such level were not ruled out. This range
and some differences between various as agriculture, industry, tourism and will be revised in the IPCC special
drought indicators. The increased households. For further information on report, The ocean and cryosphere in
droughts in southern Europe are freshwater systems affected by climate a changing climate, which is due to be
driven by reductions in precipitation change, see Chapter 4. published in September 2019. Several

PART 2
MAP 7.4 Trend in absolute mean sea level across Europe
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
0°
Trend in absolute sea level
across Europe
mm/year
≥6
5
4
3
2
60°
1
0
-1
-2
-3 50°
50°
-4
-5
< -6
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km

0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Note: Observed altimeter sea level trends (mm/year) from January 1993 to May 2017. The data have not been adjusted for glacial isostatic
adjustment.
Source: CS3 (2018b).
recent model-based studies, expert All coastal regions in Europe have global average, with the exception
assessments and national assessments experienced an increase in absolute of the northern Baltic Sea and the
have suggested an upper bound for 21st sea level but with significant regional northern Atlantic coast, which are
century global mean sea level rise in the variation (Map 7.4). Extreme high experiencing considerable land rise
range of 1.5-2.5 m. Further increases by coastal water levels have increased as a consequence of post-glacial
several metres by 2300, and by many at most locations along the European rebound. The increase in sea level
metres by 2500, are possible if the coastline. The rise in sea level relative and coastal flood levels is threatening
stabilisation goal of the Paris Agreement to land along most European coasts coastal ecosystems, water resources,
is not met (EEA, 2019e). is projected to be similar to the settlements, infrastructure and human

PART 2
TABLE 7.7 Summary assessment — climate change and impacts on ecosystems
Past trends Anthropogenic climate change is ongoing and has led to increasing impacts on species and ecosystems.
(10-15 years) In some cases, such as sea level rise, changes have been accelerating.
Outlook to 2030 Climate change will continue in the coming decades, with increasingly severe impacts on species and
ecosystems projected.
2020 While there are no specific targets related to climate change and its impacts on species, habitats and
ecosystems in Europe, the Seventh Environment Action Programme requires the mainstreaming of climate
 change adaptation into key policy initiatives and sectors in order to protect, conserve and enhance natural
capital. Continuing climate change makes it more difficult to achieve other policy targets related to biodiversity
protection, ecosystems and water quality.
Robustness The qualitative and aggregated assessment presented here is based on a multitude of direct observations
and quantitative modelling. It is considered robust, although there are considerable uncertainties for climate
change and its impacts on specific ecosystems at the regional level.
lives (Chapter 6). Available studies altitudes. The migration of many landis particularly strong in southern
project that the economic damage based species is lagging behind the Europe, as exemplified by the extreme
from coastal flooding in Europe would changes in climate, which may lead fires in Portugal in 2017 and in
increase many fold in the absence of to a progressive decline in European Spain and Greece in 2018. However,
adaptation (Ciscar et al., 2018). biodiversity (EEA, 2016b, 2016c). Climate northern Europe can also be affected.
change is also leading to changes in For example, Sweden experienced
the seasonality of biological events, unprecedented forest fires during
Further changes in the climate such as flowering of plants or hatching extreme heat waves combined with
system of birds (EEA, 2016g). Because these droughts in 2014 and again in 2018.
changes are not uniform across species, Climate change is also affecting the
Climate change is also evident some animals no longer find sufficient regional and spatial occurrence of
through melting glaciers (EEA, 2016e), food when they need it. Overall, these forest pests and diseases. Forest insect
decreasing sea ice (EEA, 2018c) changes make it more difficult to achieve pests are projected to increase in
and warming oceans (EEA, 2016h). policy objectives related to preserving most regions of Europe (EEA, 2017c,
Furthermore, the CO2 emissions driving terrestrial and marine biodiversity in Section 4.4.7). These combined impacts
global climate change are making the Europe (Chapters 3 and 6). considerably affect forest structure and
oceans more acidic, which inhibits the the functioning of forest ecosystems
growth of calcifying organisms (EEA, Forest growth is generally projected and their services (Chapter 13).
2016f) (Chapter 6). to increase in northern Europe and
to decrease in southern Europe, but 7.3.5
with substantial regional variation. At Climate change risks to society
Climate change impacts on forests the same time, forest tree species are ►See Table 7.8
and other ecosystems shifting towards higher altitudes and
latitudes as a result of climate change Climate change is affecting human
Climate change has caused widespread (EEA, 2017d). More severe forest fire health and well-being as well as many
changes in the distribution of plant weather and, as a consequence, an economic activities. This section gives
and animal species in Europe, both on expansion of the fire-prone area and an overview of selected climate change
land and in the sea. The migration has longer fire seasons are projected impacts on society. More detailed
generally been northwards and, for across Europe in a warmer climate information on this topic is available
and-based species, upwards to higher (EEA, 2019d). The impact of fire events in a 2017 EEA report (EEA, 2017c).

PART 2
FIGURE 7.7 Economic damage caused by climate-related extreme events in EEA member countries
Billion EUR (2017 values)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Events:
Meteorological Hydrological Climatological
Note: Meteorological events: storms; hydrological events: floods and mass movement; climatological events: cold waves, heat waves,
droughts, forest fires.
Source: Adapted from EEA (2019b), NatCatSERVICE provided by Munich Re.
Health impacts of climate change age, general health and socio‑economic to approximately EUR 453 billion (in 2017
status (EEA, 2019j). euro values) over the period 1980-2017
Heat waves are the most deadly (Figure 7.7). The analysis of historical
climate extremes in Europe. The Climate change is also affecting human trends is difficult, because most of the
2003 summer heat wave alone is health and well-being directly through losses were caused by a small number of
estimated to have caused around floods and indirectly by changing the very severe events (EEA, 2019b). Model
70 000 premature deaths in Europe magnitude, frequency, seasonality simulations performed by the Joint
(Robine et al., 2008). The projected and/or regional distribution of vector-, Research Centre project large increases
substantial increase in the frequency water- and food-borne diseases, in most climate hazards in Europe and
and magnitude of heat waves will pollen allergens and air pollution considerable economic damage. For
lead to a large increase in mortality incidents. For example, extremely example, in a hypothetical scenario
over the next few decades, especially warm water temperatures in the without additional adaptation, impacts
in vulnerable population groups Baltic and North Seas during recent on critical infrastructure could rise 10-fold
(the elderly, children, those in poor heat waves were associated with during the 21st century due to climate
health), unless adaptation measures unprecedented peaks in Vibrio infections change alone (Forzieri et al., 2016, 2018).
are taken. Urban areas are particularly in humans (EEA, 2017c, Section 5.2).
affected due to the combined effects
of higher temperatures as a result Other economic impacts
of the urban heat island effect, the Economic losses from of climate change
frequent combination of heat with air climate‑related extremes
pollution, including ground-level ozone, A changing climate is affecting a
and high population density (EEA, The direct economic losses caused by wide range of economic sectors and
2016d). Different population groups are weather- and climate-related extremes human activities, including agriculture,
affected differently, depending on their in the EEA member countries amounted forestry, fisheries, water management,

PART 2
FIGURE 7.8 Projected welfare impacts of climate change for different EU regions and sectors for two warming
scenarios
Northern Europe United Kingdom Central Europe Central Europe Southern Europe EU
and Ireland North South
High 2 ºC High 2 ºC High 2 ºC High 2 ºC High 2 ºC High 2 ºC
%
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-4.0
-4.5
Energy Agriculture River floods Coastal floods Labour productivity Mortality
Note: The country grouping is as follows. Northern Europe: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden. UK & Ireland: Ireland and
United Kingdom. Central Europe North: Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Poland. Central Europe South: Austria, Czechia,
France, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. Southern Europe: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.
Source: Ciscar et al. (2018).
coastal and flood protection, energy, a percentage of GDP. Welfare losses

transport, tourism, construction, and in southern and central Europe are
human health and wellbeing. Various dominated by health-related impacts,
research projects have assessed the in particular increased mortality from
multi-sectoral social and economic heat waves, but also reduced labour
impacts of climate change across An increase in heat-related productivity. In contrast, welfare losses
Europe or for specific European mortality and vector-and in northern and north-western Europe
regions. The specific estimates depend are dominated by coastal floods.
strongly on the underlying climate
waterborne diseases has been The only sector with (small) positive
scenarios; the sectors considered, observed across Europe. net welfare impacts in the EU is the
including cross-border impacts; the energy sector because of the reduced
assumptions regarding demographic need for heating in a warming climate
and socio-economic developments, (Ciscar et al., 2018).
including adaptation; the treatment
of uncertainties; and the economic welfare loss from climate change in the The Peseta III estimates are based
valuation of non-market impacts EU by the late 21st century at 1.9 % of on a limited number of sectors and
and of impacts further in the future GDP under a high warming scenario climate change impacts. Other studies
(EEA, 2017c, Section 6.3). (RCP 8.5) and at 0.7 % under a 2 °C using different modelling frameworks
scenario (Figure 7.8). Southern and and assumptions have arrived at both
The Peseta III study by the Joint central-southern Europe are projected higher and lower estimates. Many
Research Centre has estimated the net to suffer by far the highest losses as impacts can be significantly reduced

PART 2
TABLE 7.8 Summary assessment — climate change risks to society
Past trends Premature deaths due to heat waves and an increase in the incidence of several vector- and water-borne
(10-15 years) diseases have been observed in Europe. Forest fires facilitated by extreme heat and drought have led to
considerable death tolls in recent years. There are no clear trends in the economic losses from extreme
weather events.
Outlook to 2030 The past trends related to health impacts are projected to continue with ongoing climate change. The overall
economic impacts of climate change on Europe are primarily negative, but there is substantial variation across
regions and economic activities.
2020 There are no specific targets for climate-related health risks, but the Seventh Environment Action Programme
requires decisive progress to be made in adapting to climate change to safeguard from environment-related
 pressures and risks to health. There is some evidence that repeated climatic extremes affecting the same
region (e.g. heat waves) lead to reduced health impacts because of adaptation.
Robustness Data on past climate-sensitive health impacts originate from different sources, including mandatory reporting,
official statistics and attribution analyses. The identification of trends is difficult because the most significant
events are very rare. An overall assessment of the impacts of climate change on health is hampered by the
lack of reliable estimates for cold-related health impacts. Data on economic losses from climate-related events
are derived from insurance data, including estimates of uninsured losses. Attribution of trends is difficult
because of the sparsity of the most costly events as well as concurrent developments in hazards, exposure
and vulnerability.
by appropriate adaptation measures. transport infrastructure following a flood), 7.4

However, adaptation generally comes by prolonged periods of extreme weather Responses and prospects of
at a cost, there may be trade-offs (e.g. an extreme drought that increases meeting agreed targets and
with other policy objectives, and world market prices of agricultural objectives
residual impacts remain (EEA, 2017c, products) or by gradual climate change
Section 6.3; EC, 2018b, Annex XIII). (e.g. flooding of densely populated 7.4.1
coastal areas that triggers internal or Climate change mitigation
international migration). The strongest
Europe’s vulnerability to climate evidence for Europe’s sensitivity to cross- A number of policies have played an
change impacts occurring outside border impacts are the economic effects important role in reducing GHG emissions
Europe of global price volatilities, disruptions over the past 27 years (EEA, 2018e).
to transport networks and changes In addition to the expected mitigation
European societies are also affected by in the Arctic environment. European effects of climate policies, there have
the indirect impacts of climate change vulnerability to cross-border impacts of been positive indirect effects from other
occurring outside Europe through various climate change is expected to increase policies that were not aimed at reducing
pathways, such as international trade in the coming decades, but quantitative GHG emissions.
and migration (Figure 7.9). These ‘cross- projections are not yet available (EEA,
border impacts’ can be triggered by a 2017c, Section 6.4; Ciscar et al., 2018). For instance, key EU polices such as the
single extreme weather event (e.g. a Cross-border effects of climate change Nitrates Directive, the market reform
temporary disruption of global supply can be addressed by a combination of of the common agricultural policy and
chains due to damaged production or domestic and international policies. the Landfill Directive have had a positive

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FIGURE 7.9 Overview of major pathways of indirect climate change impacts for Europe
Trade (non-agricultural commodities) Trade (agricultural commmodities)

- Risks to raw materials supply - Global food price volatilities
- Risks to manufacturing industry - Reliability of supply and distribution
- Improved Arctic sea transport
Infrastructure Human mobility

- Risks to energy supply - Changing tourism flows
- Vulnerable energy infrastructure - Climate-induced migration
- Transport network disruptions - Critical role of Africa
Geopolitical risks Finance

- Climate and armed conflict - Economic repercussions
- Climate and security strategies of extreme events
- Rights and access to Arctic resources - Insurance systems
Source: Adapted from EEA (2017c).
impact on reducing greenhouse gas been able to reduce GHG emissions and
emissions from methane (CH4) and Considerable co-benefits exist air pollution, improve energy efficiency
nitrous oxide (N2O). The Montreal and achieve higher shares of energy
for air pollution and climate
Protocol on ozone-depleting substances from renewable sources and, at the
has been one of the most successful policies. same time, increase economic growth.
multilateral environmental (and indirectly Nevertheless, much remains to be done,
climatic) agreements to date, contributing and considering the co-benefits and
to substantial reductions in GHG stimulate the transition towards a more trade-offs between climate policies and
emissions in Europe and worldwide. This environmentally friendly future, the other policies, including environmental
was because many of the substances European Commission adopted the policies, in the design of new legislation
addressed in the Montreal Protocol circular economy action plan (EC, 2015a). would achieve maximum benefits.
such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are It includes measures covering the entire
also potent GHGs (Velders et al., 2007). cycle from production and consumption In relation to direct effects, and the
The banning of CFCs, however, led to an to waste management. These actions effectiveness of climate and energy
increase in the consumption of substitute should encourage greater recycling policies, EEA analysis (EEA, 2016a) has
gases such as HFCs. In 2016, the Montreal and reuse, and bring benefits for the shown that there is statistical evidence of
Protocol was thus amended in Kigali, environment, the economy and the a long-term relationship between GHG
where countries committed to cutting the climate (Chapter 9). emissions, economic growth and use of
production and consumption of HFCs by energy from fossil fuels, and that GHG
over 80 % over the next 30 years. Moreover, the EU’s Large Combustion emissions can be predicted in the short
Plant Directive has encouraged efficiency term based on these two variables, with
Considerable co-benefits exist for air improvements and fuel switching from some variations due to, for example,
pollution and climate policies, not solid fuels to cleaner fuels and thus particularly cold or warm years. A later
only at national but also at local level, helped reduce emissions, not only of air analysis (EEA, 2017a) also showed
although there are some trade-offs pollutants but also of greenhouse gases that, based on projections reported
as well (Chapter 8). For instance, to (EEA, 2011, 2019a). Indeed, the EU has by Member States, this long‑term

PART 2
relationship becomes weaker as the years Taking a global perspective, although

go by. This would suggest that climate there have been strategies and various
change mitigation policies and measures, policies aimed at reducing GHG
as a package if not individually, are emissions in the EU since 2005, at the
gradually working and are expected to planetary scale the effect of such policies
have a stronger effect over time both in Meeting EU RES targets has been relatively modest. This is
Member States and at EU level. requires better RES because the EU represents 8 % of global
GHG emissions (EEA, 2017a). The 2020
deployment and more uptake,
Indeed, the increased use of energy from EU climate and energy framework was
renewable sources since 2005 allowed notably in transport. partly designed to help the EU achieve
the EU to cut its demand for fossil fuels its international 20 % reduction targets
by over one tenth in 2016 (EEA, 2018h). by 2020 under the UNFCCC as well as its
This is comparable to the fossil fuel 20 % emission reduction target under
consumption of the United Kingdom in Efforts to decommission conventional the Kyoto Protocol. The Paris Agreement,
that year, with coal being the fossil fuel thermal generation (especially coal) signed in 2015, raised the bar for
most substituted across Europe (38 % also need to be intensified, because everyone, with all UNFCCC member
of all avoided fossil fuels), followed by these technologies are by far the largest countries agreeing to keep the increase
natural gas (at 36 %). The growth in sources of climate and environmental in global average temperature to well
the consumption of renewable energy pressures. Under such conditions, clean below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial
after 2005 also helped the EU achieve electricity can increasingly also foster low- levels and aiming to limit the increase to
an estimated gross reduction in CO2 carbon transitions within other sectors, 1.5 °C (UNFCCC, 2015b).
emissions of 9 % in 2016, compared with such as industry, transport and buildings.
a scenario in which RES consumption Yet, to be successful, this transition also In 2014, the European Council adopted
stayed at the 2005 level (EEA, 2018h). needs to be socially fair and inclusive. the 2030 climate and energy framework
This almost corresponds to the annual Not all new technological developments (European Council, 2014), and the related
GHG emissions of France in that year. may ease pressures on the environment legislation was adopted by the European
Most of these changes took place in and challenges linked to deploying and Council and the European Parliament
energy‑intensive industrial sectors under upscaling new infrastructures need to be in 2018. The headline target of at least
the EU ETS, as the increase in renewable duly anticipated and addressed. a 40 % reduction in GHG emissions by
electricity decreased the reliance on fossil 2030 is consistent with the EU’s nationally
fuels and made up roughly three quarters For the EU to remain on track towards determined contribution (NDC) under
of the estimated total EU reductions. its energy efficiency objectives, further the Paris Agreement. It is also consistent
implementation of energy efficiency with the EU’s longer term objective of the
Despite this recent progress, to meet the measures across specific Member States Roadmap for moving to a competitive
EU’s 2030 and 2050 objectives there is a is needed. To stay on track towards its RES low-carbon economy in 2050, agreed by
need to further improve energy efficiency targets, the EU needs to safeguard further the European Council in October 2009, in
and step up the use of renewables to RES deployment and to increase the pace the context of the necessary reductions
reduce carbon intensity and completely of RES uptake in the transport sector. to be made by developed countries as
decouple GHG emissions from energy a group, according to the IPCC, and re-
use and economic growth. A broad range of policies affect energy affirmed thereafter, of reducing its GHG
choices and planning and, as a result, emissions by 80-95 % by 2050 compared
Concerning energy, decarbonisation environmental outcomes. These include with 1990, with milestones of 40 % by
of the EU supply is possible. With full energy security (subsidiarity element), 2030 and 60 % by 2040. The EU ETS has
implementation of current energy finance and taxation, climate and been reformed and strengthened for the
efficiency solutions and the upscaling energy policy at EU and national levels, period 2021-2030 and will ensure that
of low-carbon energy technologies, and science and technology policies. emissions in the sectors covered by the
emissions of GHGs from the EU Competencies are dispersed across system are reduced by 43 % compared
power sector can be reduced by 98 % EU, national, regional and municipal with 2005. For the sectors covered under
or more (EC, 2018c). To make this levels. Greater policy integration would the Effort Sharing Regulation, emissions
possible, significant new investments in improve the rate of progress: this would have to be reduced by 30 %
cost‑efficient solutions, beyond diverting includes continuing the mainstreaming compared with 2005, with individual
former fossil fuel investments to energy of environmental objectives into key EU binding targets for Member States. The
efficiency and renewables, are needed. spending programmes in the energy area. climate change mitigation objectives

PART 2
are also part of the Energy Union Agreement established the global goal
framework strategy, which includes the on adaptation of ‘enhancing adaptive
strategic objectives of reducing energy capacity, strengthening resilience and
demand, improving energy efficiency reducing vulnerability to climate change,
and decarbonising the economy. Finally, with a view to contributing to sustainable
the European Commission published its Climate adaptation is development and ensuring an adequate
strategic long-term vision for reductions increasingly integrated adaptation response in the context of the
of EU GHG emissions in November 2018, global temperature goal’ (UNFCCC, 2015b,
into EU policies, programmes
which embraces the target of net zero Art. 7) and thus linking adaptation and
GHG emissions by 2050 and outlines and strategies. sustainable development. The SFDRR and
feasible pathways for achieving this target SDGs also consider adaptation as crucial,
with current technologies. pointing to possible synergies at the
national level where these frameworks
EU domestic legislation is in place to meet cities have already committed to this goal. need to be implemented. Adaptation
the Paris Agreement’s objectives. It is, Indeed, to address the big challenge and monitoring and evaluation is recognised
however, rather clear that the current prevent the worst impacts from climate as an important step in the process of
NDCs by all signatories to the Paris change, mitigation measures can and adapting to climate change.
Agreement are, to date, not consistent should be implemented at any level of
with the overall UNFCCC objective of government. EU adaptation efforts
avoiding dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system The challenge is big. Three out of four The EU strategy on adaptation to climate
(UNFCCC, 1992), unless the current representative concentration pathways change (EC, 2013b) aims to contribute
emissions gap is closed by 2030. (the global emission scenarios used in to a more climate-resilient Europe by
According to the 2018 Emissions gap the latest IPCC report) exceed 2 °C of enhancing the preparedness and capacity
report by UN Environment (UNEP, 2018), global warming during the 21st century to respond to the impacts of climate
pathways reflecting current NDCs imply and most likely into the 2040s (IPCC, change from a local to a European
global warming of about 3 °C by 2100. 2013; Vautard et al., 2014). Very rapid level. In November 2018, the European
To close the gap, the level of global global reductions in emissions, and Commission published an evaluation of
ambition should increase by 2030. The possibly the large-scale application the EU adaptation strategy (EC, 2018a,
Paris Agreement requires each Party to of bioenergy combined with carbon 2018b, 2018g) based on the REFIT
prepare, communicate and maintain capture and storage technologies, are criteria (EC, 2012a) of the Commission’s
successive NDCs that it intends to achieve necessary to keep the chance of limiting regulatory fitness and performance
and to pursue domestic mitigation global mean temperature increase to programme. In the absence of a specific
measures, with the aim of achieving the 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018). monitoring and evaluation framework,
objectives of such contributions. The EU the eight different actions defined in the
submitted its first NDC in 2015 (UNFCCC, strategy have been evaluated in their
2015a). New or updated NDCs have 7.4.2 own right.
to be submitted by all Parties by 2020. Climate change adaptation
The Talanoa Dialogue and the Global ►See Table 7.9 The evaluation of the EU adaptation
Stocktake in 2023 are the mechanisms strategy shows that each of the actions
to ensure that the global community A number of United Nations (UN) made progress between 2013 and 2018
delivers on its objectives to curb multilateral frameworks with relevance and that they added value to national
emissions to a level consistent with the for climate change adaptation have and sub-national measures. For example,
2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. been adopted since 2015. Apart from climate change adaptation is increasingly
the Paris Agreement on climate change mainstreamed into EU policies,
The Paris Agreement also recognises the (UNFCCC, 2015b), these are the Sendai programmes and strategies; the EU has
role of local and regional stakeholders in Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction co-funded many adaptation‑related
climate change mitigation. The Covenant 2015-2030 (SFDRR; UNISDR, 2015), and projects across Europe through LIFE and
of Mayors for Climate and Energy brings the 2030 Sustainable Development other programmes; most EEA member
together local and regional authorities to Agenda, including the Sustainable countries now have a national adaptation
implement the EU’s climate and energy Development Goals (SDGs; UN, 2017). strategy; an increasing number of cities
objectives on a voluntary basis (Covenant All these agreements have strong links are adopting local adaptation strategies;
of Mayors, 2019b). In Europe, over 7 000 to climate change adaptation. The Paris and the Climate-ADAPT platform

PART 2
facilitates the exchange of knowledge action plans, the information provided by

relevant to adaptation across Europe. Climate‑ADAPT is shifting to knowledge
While the adaptation strategy promoted on the implementation and monitoring
adaptation action plans, it was less of adaptation and the development
effective in implementing, monitoring of appropriate indicator sets, e.g. by
and evaluating those plans. Reflecting Adaptation action plans need improving the Adaptation Support Tool (7).
on lessons learned, the evaluation Climate-ADAPT is branded as a ‘first-
to be effectively implemented,
emphasises the needs for the following: stop shop’ for adaptation information in
monitored and evaluated. Europe, complementary to the national
• applying the knowledge available adaptation portals (EEA, 2018i).
for decision-making under uncertainty,
e.g. through science-policy dialogues; C3S (8) makes an increasing amount
the cohesion policy and the common of data on past and projected climate
• improving the climate resilience fisheries policy, but progress has also change freely available to scientists,
of long-term infrastructure; better been made in mainstreaming into policymakers and stakeholders. Of
integration of the strategy’s actions with disaster risk reduction, water, and urban particular relevance for adaptation
each other and with the international and development cooperation policies decision-makers is the C3S Sectoral
dimension of adaptation; (for a full list of EU policy initiatives Information System, which is currently
where adaptation is mainstreamed, under development.
• better monitoring of the or is being mainstreamed, see EC,
implementation and effectiveness of 2018b, Annex XI). Adaptation is also
national adaptation strategies and plans; mainstreamed in the Energy Union Adaptation efforts of EEA member
and Climate Action Regulation, which countries
• encouraging the establishment of was adopted in December 2018. This
local adaptation strategies in all Member Regulation ensures that the national The effectiveness and efficiency of many
States; energy and climate plans to be submitted national adaptation policies can be
by the Member States in the future assessed only in the long term, and even
• improving the analysis of the include climate adaptation components then an exact assessment is impossible
distributional effects of climate change where applicable (EU, 2018b). A recent due to the lack of a counterfactual
impacts and adaptation measures. report by the European Court of Auditors situation. Consequently, there are no
found that the EU Floods Directive had legally binding quantitative objectives
Areas for improvement include, among positive effects overall but that the and targets regarding adaptation
others, exploiting synergies between implementation of flood prevention at the European level. Apart from
climate change adaptation, climate measures suffers from weaknesses in the requirements for the national
change mitigation and disaster risk allocating funding and that much fuller communications to the UNFCCC, the only
reduction; facilitating ecosystem-based integration of climate change into flood mandatory reporting for EU Member
adaptation; better mainstreaming into risk management is needed (ECA, 2018). States on adaptation comes from the
the EU maritime and fisheries policy; Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (EU,
reinforcing the links between public Another objective of the EU 2013b, Art. 15). From 2021 onwards, as
health and adaptation; and better adaptation strategy is ‘better informed mainstreamed in the Energy Union and
adaptation support to investors and decision‑making’, with a central role for Climate Action Regulation, integrated
insurers, including private investors Climate-ADAPT (6). This is a web portal reporting on adaptation actions will
(EC, 2018g). that aims to provide a common European be submitted every 2 years instead
knowledge base related to adaptation. In of every 4 years, in accordance with
Climate-proofing of EU action mainly April 2019, it contained 2 191 database the requirements agreed upon under
includes mainstreaming adaptation items and 90 case studies and had the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement,
into key vulnerable sectors. The 3 715 subscribers to its newsletter including the Paris rulebook, adopted in
adaptation strategy explicitly refers across Europe. With a growing number December 2018 as part of the Katowice
to the common agricultural policy, of countries implementing adaptation
(6) https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu
(7) https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/adaptation-support-tool
(8) https://climate.copernicus.eu

PART 2
climate package (UNFCCC, 2015b, 2019; as the mountainous part of the Alpine
1 900
EU, 2018b). Space, have been identified as ‘hot
spots’ (Ramieri et al., 2018; EEA, 2018a).
Since 2013, there has been a steady Over Regions with geographically similar
increase in the number of national conditions address similar challenges,
adaptation strategies (NASs) and local authorities in the EEA‑39 and the existence of shared resources
national adaptation action plans (NAPs) typically requires common approaches
countries have committed
being adopted by countries, and several (Rafaelsen et al., 2017; EEA, 2017c,
countries have adopted a revised
to take action to adapt to 2018a).
NAS. To date, 25 EU Member States climate change.
and four other EEA member countries Strategic objectives and actions related
have adopted a NAS; 17 EU Member to adaptation are included in all four
States and two other EEA member cooperation on adaptation issues in EU macro-regional strategies: for the
countries have also developed a NAP the water sector, as required by the Baltic Sea, the Danube, the Adriatic and
(EEA, 2018f; updated based on Eionet, Water Framework Directive (EU, 2000) Ionian, and the Alpine regions (EC, 2010,
2019) (Map 7.5). Almost all of these and the Floods Directive (EU, 2007), and 2012c, 2014, 2015b). Common specific
NASs and NAPs are underpinned by highlighted in the Blueprint to safeguard transnational adaptation strategies or
climate change vulnerability and risk Europe’s water resources (EC, 2012b). action plans have also been developed in
assessments (EEA, 2018d). Progress is For all other sectors, this is limited to the North Sea, Northern Periphery and
expected to continue as the EU Member one or a few countries only (EC, 2018b, Arctic, Baltic Sea, Danube, Alpine Space
States currently lacking a NAS (Bulgaria, Annex IX). and Mediterranean regions, but they
Croatia and Latvia) are in the process have different levels of implementation.
of drafting one. It is also expected A limited number of countries have (Ramieri et al., 2018; EEA, 2018a).
that additional countries will adopt started to monitor and/or evaluate
NAPs and that they will implement adaptation policies and actions
more specific adaptation policies and at national level, using mainly Adaptation efforts in cities
actions in line with their strategies ‘process‑based’ indicators. Some
and plans (EC, 2018b, Annex IX). countries also use ‘output-based’ or Although the European and national
‘outcome‑based’ approaches to assess levels provide the political, legislative
In the Western Balkans, Bosnia and if and how vulnerability has decreased and financial framework for adaptation,
Herzegovina adopted a climate and/or resilience has increased local adaptation actions address the
change adaptation and low-emission (e.g. Austria, Finland, Germany and the specific situation of particular locations.
development strategy in 2013 United Kingdom), but such approaches The development of local adaptation
(Radusin et al., 2017) and is now use complex methodologies and are strategies is increasing throughout
starting work on a NAP (UNDP, 2018). resource intensive (EEA, 2014a; Mäkinen Europe (Aguiar et al., 2018). As of
Serbia is developing a national plan for et al., 2018; EC, 2018b, Annex IX). It April 2019, over 1 900 local authorities
adaptation (Ministry of Environmental will not be possible to determine with in the EEA member and collaborating
Protection, 2017). In addition, a detailed any certainty whether or not decisive countries have made commitments
list of proposed priority adaptation progress in increased resilience at EU related to adaptation within the
measures across sectors is available level has been achieved by 2020. Covenant of Mayors for Climate and
for North Macedonia (Zdraveva Energy. Among those signatories,
et al., 2014). 240 adaptation action plans have been
Adaptation efforts in transnational submitted, and over 100 adaptation
In the EU countries, most vulnerability regions plans are at the monitoring stage
assessments are made and adaptation (Covenant of Mayors, 2019a). Local
options are identified for agriculture, All European transnational regions authorities in Europe also join global
health, biodiversity, forestry and energy. are vulnerable to climate change initiatives relevant to adaptation, such
The main sectors in which national to various degrees. Some of them, as Making Cities Resilient (UN Office
policy instruments promote adaptation such as the Northern Periphery for Disaster Risk Reduction; over 650
are water, agriculture, biodiversity and and Arctic, South West Europe and participating local authorities in EEA
forestry, whereas health and energy Mediterranean regions (which include member and collaborating countries),
are lagging behind. Almost all EU large parts of the Adriatic‑Ionian and 100 Resilient Cities (Rockefeller
Member States include transboundary Balkan‑Mediterranean areas), as well Foundation; 14 European cities)

PART 2
MAP 7.5 Country comparison — overview of national adaptation policies
Status of national adaptation policy
NAS and NAP

NAP
NAS
Neither NAS nor NAP
NAS: National Adaptation Strategy

NAP: National Adaptation Plan
Note: NAS, national adaptation strategy; NAP, national adaptation plan.
Sources: Adapted from EC (2018b) and EEA (2018f).
or C40 cities (8 European cities) Many cities are already putting strategies, cities can take the lead on
(EEA, 2018k) (9). Involvement of cities in adaptation measures in practice. adaptation within countries, as in the case
these initiatives may lead to longer-term Frontrunner cities, such as Copenhagen of Belgrade (Ministry of Environmental
commitment and action. Moreover, or Rotterdam, are exemplars of how Protection, 2017). Conversely, national
events and information platforms urban areas can be transformed to meet leadership can ensure that adaptation
associated with the initiatives facilitate the adaptation challenge (Chapter 17). planning follows the same standards
the exchange of knowledge through Others, such as Helsinki, are exploring in dozens of cities, as in the case of the
sharing of examples and lessons learnt how adaptation can be monitored 44MPA project in Poland (Ministry of the
(EEA, 2018k; Covenant of Mayors, 2019a). (EEA, 2016i). In the absence of national Environment, 2018).
(9) The cities participating in these initiatives are mapped in the Urban vulnerability map viewer within the Climate-ADAPT platform (https://climate-
adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/urban-adaptation).

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© Giulia Soriente, My City/EEA

PART 2
TABLE 7.9 Summary assessment — climate change adaptation strategies and plans
Past trends The consideration of climate change adaptation at the EU level, the national level and in cities has
(10-15 years) increased in recent years. Most EEA member countries now have national adaptation strategies and/or
action plans.
Outlook to 2030 Further action on climate change adaptation is ongoing or planned at European, national and subnational
levels.
2020 Most, but not all, EU Member States currently have a national adaptation strategy. Implementation of
 adaptation is still in its early stages in many countries because of a lack of funding or other barriers. Some
countries have started to monitor the implementation of adaptation activities.
Robustness Process-based information on the planning of adaptation at the national level is available from countries
reporting to the EEA. Information on the implementation of adaptation at different levels is patchy at best. The
assessment of outlooks relies primarily on expert judgement.
7.4.3 and that there has been no significant in financial and economic activity
Climate change finance shift towards climate action in the areas (EC, 2018d).
of agriculture, rural development and
Most measures for mitigating or fisheries. The report also emphasised
adapting to climate change require methodological weaknesses of the International climate change finance
financing, either initially or permanently. current tracking method, including
This section briefly reviews two financial the failure of tracking mitigation and In the Copenhagen Accord under the
targets related to EU domestic spending adaptation spending separately. The UNFCCC, developed countries made the
and to international spending. ECA report also includes a detailed reply collective commitment to jointly mobilise
from the Commission addressing the USD 100 billion annually by 2020 to
ECA’s observations and suggestions (ECA, address the mitigation and adaptation
EU budget targets and further EU 2016). Broadly similar conclusions have needs of developing countries (UNFCCC,
activities been reached, and various suggestions 2010). This commitment was reconfirmed
for improved climate mainstreaming and extended in the Paris Agreement
With the intention of mainstreaming in the next EU multiannual financial (UNFCCC, 2015b). The Organisation for
climate action into the EU budget, the framework (2021‑2027) were made in a Economic Co‑operation and Development
EU has agreed that at least 20 % of its recent study for the Commission (Forster (OECD) has reported that public climate
budget for 2014-2020 should be spent et al., 2017). finance from developed to developing
on climate-related action (EC, 2011; countries increased from USD 37.9
European Council, 2013). Analyses by The revised EU ETS Directive established billion in 2013 to USD 54.5 billion in
the Commission indicate that the EU new low-carbon funding mechanisms, 2017 (OECD, 2016). A submission by
is broadly on track towards the 20 % in particular the Innovation Fund and developed countries and the EU to the
target, but further efforts are needed the Modernisation Fund (EU, 2018a; UNFCCC based on an earlier OECD
(EC, 2016). A report by the European EC, 2018f). The Commission action study projected that aggregated funding
Court of Auditors (ECA) acknowledged plan on sustainable finance intends levels for climate action in developing
that ambitious work was under way to reorient capital flows towards countries would reach more than
and that the target has led to more, and sustainable investment in order to USD 100 billion in 2020 (OECD, 2016;
better focused, climate action in the achieve sustainable and inclusive UNFCCC, 2016). These estimates and
European Regional Development Fund growth, manage financial risks stemming the underlying methodology have been
and the Cohesion Fund. At the same from climate change, environmental criticised for their ambiguity in definitions
time, the report highlighted a serious degradation and social issues, and and lack of transparency in reporting
risk that the 20 % target will not be met foster transparency and long-termism (AdaptationWatch, 2016).

08.
Air pollution
2
© Simone Manfredi
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• Air pollutants are emitted by a • The reduction in emissions has led • To further improve air quality,
large range of economic activities (and to a general improvement in air quality. additional measures are needed
from some natural sources). They can However, there are still exceedances to reduce emissions, especially
affect air quality far away from the of EU air quality health standards for from agriculture, transport and
source, and local effects also depend key pollutants such as particulate domestic heating. The continuing
on local conditions. Air pollution is the matter, nitrogen dioxide and ozone; contribution to poor air quality by
single largest environmental health risk EU vegetation standards for ozone; these sectors is consistent with a
in Europe. World Health Organization (WHO) need for systemic changes in the
health guidelines; and of critical loads food, mobility and energy systems.
• The emissions of most main of nitrogen in many ecosystems. These Because of the transboundary
air pollutants decreased in Europe exceedances are expected to remain character of air pollution, maintaining
between 2000 and 2017. This decrease in 2020. collaboration and coordinated action at
did not happen at the same pace in all international, national and local levels
countries and regions and not in all • With the full implementation of the will be crucial to curb air pollution, in
sectors. For instance, for the 33 EEA current emission abatement policies, coordination with other environmental,
member countries, sulphur oxides from air pollutant concentrations above climate and sectoral policies.
energy production and distribution the WHO guidelines are expected to
decreased by 77 % (2000-2017), while be almost completely eliminated by
ammonia emissions from agriculture 2030. The current number of more than
decreased much less significantly and 400 000 premature deaths attributable
have even increased by about 3 % to air pollution in the 28 EU Member
from 2013 to 2017. Reductions were States is expected to decline by more
comparably less for fine particulate than a half by 2030, while the reduction
matter, the pollutant that poses the in the impacts on ecosystems is
greatest threat to human health. expected to be smaller. Therefore
there is still a need to substantially
reduce the impacts on human health
and ecosystems.

objectives/targets
Emissions of air pollutants Trends show a mixed Trends show a mixed Largely Partly
picture picture  on track  on track
Concentrations of air pollutants Improving trends Trends show a mixed Largely not Largely
dominate picture  on track  on track
Air pollution impacts on human health and Improving trends Trends show a mixed Largely
well-being dominate picture  on track
Air pollution and impacts on ecosystems Trends show a mixed Trends show a mixed Partly Partly
picture picture  on track  on track
4 par A
PART 2
08.
Air pollution
8.1 (modelling data are not considered). The

Scope of the theme assessment focuses on the main, most
harmful pollutants in ambient air and
The air we breathe and live in is a critical does not cover indoor air pollution.
natural resource for humans, plants and
animals. Good air quality is essential Air pollution is the single
to protect not only human health
largest environmental risk 8.2
and natural capital but also the built Policy landscape
environment and therefore part of the
to the health of Europeans.
cultural heritage. Air pollution is a transboundary issue
and therefore needs internationally
Natural sources such as volcanic concerted action to address it. The most
eruptions, sea salt or dust from wind significant international instrument to
erosion can contribute to air pollution. abate transboundary air pollution is
However, most pollutants are released particulate matter (PM), nitrogen the CLRTAP (UNECE, 1979), signed in
as a result of human activities in dioxide (NO2) and ground-level ozone (O3) Geneva in 1979, and its eight protocols
economic sectors such as transport, being the pollutants of greatest concern. to cut emissions of air pollutants. It
agriculture, generation and use of has the overall objective of limiting
energy, industry or waste management This assessment is primarily based on and gradually reducing and preventing
(Chapters 7, 9, 12, and 13). data officially provided by EU Member air pollution including long‑range
States and EEA member and cooperating transboundary air pollution.
Emitted pollutants, once released, countries under the obligations
undergo various physical and chemical of the Convention on Long-range At the EU level, air pollution is a
processes (such as transport, reactions, Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) well‑established environmental policy
absorption, and deposition on vegetation protocols (UNECE, 2019), the National area, which has followed an approach
or with rain water), impacting ambient Emissions Ceilings (NEC) Directive based on three pillars (EC, 2018b):
air quality, which can be analysed by (EU, 2016) and the Ambient Air Quality
measuring pollutant concentrations. Directives (EU, 2004, 2008). In this last 1. it has implemented emission
Air pollution affects human health, case, only measurement data from mitigation controls on national totals (via
vegetation and ecosystems, with monitoring stations have been included the NEC Directive (EU, 2016));
SOER 2020/Air pollution 191

PART 2
FIGURE 8.1 Trends in the main air pollutant emissions and in gross domestic product in the EU-28
Index (% of 2000)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SOx NOx NH3 PM10 PM2.5 NMVOCs CO CH4 BC GDP
Notes: Values for 2000-2017 are expressed as percentages of 2000 levels. Gross domestic product is expressed in chain-linked volumes (2010),
as percentages of the 2000 level.
Methane (CH4) emissions are total emissions (integrated pollution prevention and control sectors 1-7) excluding sector 5, land use,
land use change and forestry. The present emission inventories include only anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compound
(NMVOC) emissions.
BC, black carbon.
2. it has set emission and energy The objective of the most recent emissions of the main air pollutants.
efficiency standards for specific strategic policy directions such as the Table 8.1 presents an overview of
sources or sectors (e.g. the Industrial Seventh Environment Action Programme selected policy objectives and targets on
Emissions Directive, Euro regulations (7th EAP) (EC, 2013b) or the Clean Air air pollution.
for vehicles, the Medium Combustion for Europe Programme (EC, 2013a) is to
Plants Directive, the fuels and products achieve levels of air quality that do not
directives, the Ecodesign Directive give rise to significant negative impacts 8.3
or the Nitrate Directive (EC, 2019b) on, and risks to, human health and the Key trends and outlooks
(Chapters 7, 12, 13)); and environment.
8.3.1
3. the two Ambient Air Quality Finally, the actions taken under other Emissions of air pollutants
Directives (EU, 2004, 2008) have set international environment and climate ►See Table 8.2
legal limits for ambient concentrations strategies, such as the Paris Agreement
of air pollutants and the obligation to (UNFCCC, 2015) or the EU’s Energy Union Figure 8.1 shows total emissions of
implement plans and measures when strategy (EC, 2015), are also expected the main air pollutants in the 28 EU
those limits are exceeded. to have a positive impact in reducing Member States (EU-28), indexed
192 SOER 2020/Air pollution

PART 2
Emissions of air pollutants
Attain emission ceilings and reduction CLRTAP (UNECE, 1979) and protocols Ceilings: 2010, remain Legally binding to
commitments for the main air pollutants SOx, (UNECE, 2019), (particularly the 2012 applicable until 2019 the Parties to the
NOx, NMVOCs, NH3 and primary PM2.5 (for the amended Gothenburg Protocol) Gothenburg Protocol
latter, only reduction commitments) Reduction commitments:
2020 and beyond
SDG 7 (Affordable and clean energy); SDGs 2030

SDG 13 (Climate action)
Attain EU Member State and EU emission NEC Directive (EU, 2016) (transposes Ceilings for 2010, Annex I Legally binding (only
ceilings and reduction commitments for the the reduction commitments for 2020 (and Annex II, environmental Annex I ceilings)
main air pollutants SOx, NOx, NMVOCs, NH3 agreed by the EU and its Member objectives for SOx, NOx and
and primary PM2.5 (for the latter, reduction States under the 2012 amended NMVOCs): remain applicable
commitments only) Gothenburg Protocol (CLRTAP); more until 2019
ambitious reduction commitments
agreed for 2030) Reduction commitments:
2020 and 2030
SDG 7 (Affordable and clean energy);
SDG 13 (Climate action) SDGs 2030
Air quality
Attain limit values for SO2, NO2, C6H6, CO, Pb, Ambient Air Quality Directives 2005/2010/2013/2015/2020 Legally binding
PM10 and PM2.5; achieve target values for PM2.5, (EU, 2004, 2008)
O3, As, Cd, Ni and BaP; the long-term objective
for O3; the national exposure reduction target Clean Air Programme for Europe 2020
and the exposure concentration obligation for (EC, 2013a)
PM2.5; and critical levels for SO2 and NOx SDG 11 (Sustainable cities) SDG 2030
Achieve levels of air quality that do not give rise 7th EAP (EC, 2013b), Clean Air N/A Non-binding
to significant negative impacts on, and risks to, Programme for Europe (EC, 2013a) commitment
human health and the environment (in line with
the WHO air quality guidelines)
Impacts on human health and well-being
By 2030, substantially reduce the number of SDG 3.9 (Ensure healthy lives and 2030 Non-binding
deaths and illnesses from air pollution promote well-being for all at all ages) commitment
By 2030, cut the health impacts of air pollution Clean Air Programme for Europe 2030 Non-binding
(in terms of premature mortality due to PM and (EC, 2013a) commitment
O3) by 52 % compared with 2005
Impacts on ecosystems
No exceedances of the critical loads and levels 7th EAP (EC, 2013b) N/A Non-binding
commitment
By 2030, reduce the ecosystem area exceeding Clean Air Programme for Europe 2030 Non-binding
eutrophication limits to 35 % (EC, 2013a), NEC Directive (indirectly) commitment
(EU, 2016)
Note: As, arsenic; BaP, benzo[a]pyrene; C6H6, benzene; Cd, cadmium; CO, carbon monoxide; NH3, ammonia; Ni, nickel; NMVOCs, non-methane
volatile organic compounds; NO2, nitrogen dioxide; NOx, nitrogen oxides; Pb, lead; PM2.5, fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 µm diameter);
PM10, particulate matter ≤ 10 µm diameter; O3, ozone; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; SO2, sulphur dioxide; SOx, sulphur oxides;
WHO, World Health Organization; N/A, non-applicable.

PART 2
FIGURE 8.2 EU progress towards meeting the 2010 emission ceilings set out in the NEC Directive and the
2020/2030 reduction commitments
Emissions (Gg)
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
17
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
17
17
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17
2010
2011
2012
2013
17
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2014
2015
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
20
20
20
20
20
NOx NMVOCs SO2 NH3 PM2.5
Emissions Emissions (dark blue bars signify manure management (3B) and agricultural soil (3D) from agriculture)
2020 Emission reduction commitment 2030 Emission reduction commitment Annex I emission ceilings
Note: Annex I lists the legally binding ceilings applicable for 2010-2019. To assess future attainment of 2020 and 2030 reduction
commitments, NOx and NMVOC emissions from two main agricultural activities — manure management (3B) and agricultural soils
(3D) — are not considered. The magnitude of these emission sources is indicated by the blue bars on top of the NOx and NMVOC
columns. Only the lower part of the NOx and NMVOC columns should be considered for comparison with the 2020 and 2030 reduction
commitments.
Source: EEA (2019k).
as a percentage of their value in sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions have

the reference year 2000. Emissions While sulphur dioxide emissions decreased by 62 % since the year 2000,
of all primary and precursor while ammonia (NH3) emissions have
declined by 62 % since 2000,
pollutants contributing to ambient decreased only slightly by 4 % but have
air concentrations of the main air ammonia emissions decreased increased in the agriculture sector since
pollutants decreased between the years by only 4 % in the EEA member 2013 by about 3 % (EEA, 2019e).
2000 and 2017 in the EU-28. Generally, countries.
this decline was similar in the 33 EEA The substantial reduction in SO2
member countries (EEA-33), where emissions occurred mainly in the energy

PART 2
production, distribution and use sectors

(Chapter 12). Reductions in nitrogen BOX 8.1
oxides (NOx) emissions, for example, Regions, areas and periods with
high air pollutant emissions
have been achieved primarily as a result
of fitting three-way catalytic converters
I
to petrol-fuelled cars, driven by the More efforts are needed n parts of Europe (particularly eastern
legislative European emission standards for all pollutants to meet Europe and northern Italy) burning
(EEA, 2019d); emissions by economic of wood, coal and other solid fuels
the EU’s 2030 emission
sector are also shown in Chapter 12. in domestic stoves, especially during
reduction commitments. winter time, leads to locally or regionally
In 2017, the total emissions for the EU as high fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
a whole of four important air pollutants emissions. The International Institute
— NOx, non-methane volatile organic road transport, residential households for Applied Systems Analysis estimated
compounds (NMVOCs), SO2 and ammonia or agriculture, emissions in certain that solid fuel combustion in households
(NH3) — were below the respective NEC areas and during certain periods of contributes only about 2.7 % to total
Directive 2010 ceilings, which remain the year also need consideration when energy consumption in the EU-28,
applicable until 2019 (EEA, 2019k). planning regional and local mitigation whereas it is responsible for more than
measures (Box 8.1). 45 % of the total emissions of primary
However, 6 Member States continued to PM2.5, i.e. three times more than road
exceed their national emission ceilings For the EU as a whole, the projections transport (Amann et al., 2018a).
for one or more pollutants in 2017: reported by the Member States in 2019
the Netherlands for NH3 and NMVOCs; for the year 2030 show that additional Moreover, in street canyons with a high
and Austria, Croatia, Germany, Ireland efforts are needed to achieve the 2030 density of buildings and high levels of
and Spain for NH3. No Member State emission reduction commitments for all road traffic, nitrogen oxide emissions
exceeded its NOx or SO2 ceilings. pollutants (EEA, 2019k). This means for can be very high locally, leading to
NOx a reduction of almost 40 % compared exceedances of air quality standards for
Norway and Switzerland have signed with 2017 emissions, for NMVOCs and nitrogen dioxide.
and ratified the Gothenburg Protocol. NH3 around 15 %, and for SO2 as well as
Only Norway still exceeded its NOx PM2.5 more than 30 %. Furthermore, intensively managed
and NH3 ceilings in 2017 (EEA, 2019e). agricultural areas, particularly when
Liechtenstein has signed, but not ratified, The First Clean Air Outlook (EC, 2018c) is animal manure is spread on fields
the Protocol, while Iceland and Turkey underpinned by a detailed study (Amann with no or little vegetation cover, can
have not yet signed it (UNECE, 2018a). et al., 2018b), which includes inter alia a have very high ammonia emissions
scenario analysis considering post-2014 temporarily. This contributes to the
After 2019, new commitments source-oriented regulations for emission formation of high levels of PM in the air,
to reduce emissions for 2020 onwards, controls for medium combustion again contributing to exceedances of air
and later for 2030 onwards, are plants, non-road mobile machinery quality standards for protecting human
applicable under the NEC Directive. Every and domestic solid fuel combustion, as health (Section 8.3.2). ■
second year, Member States must report well as the implementation of the 2016
their emission projections for 2020, 2025 NEC Directive (EU, 2016).
and 2030 for SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOCs,
fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 µm, PM2.5) The resulting emission projections
and, if available, black carbon (BC). from this scenario indicate whether
These officially reported emission the EU Member States are on track to
projections are used to assess whether meet the 2030 reduction commitments
or not Member States are on track to set within the NEC Directive or not and
meet their reduction commitments for to which extent additional measures
2020 and 2030 (EU, 2016). Figure 8.2 will be needed to reach the reduction
summarises the EU’s progress in meeting commitments.
the ceilings and reduction commitments.
The Clean Air Outlook analyses do not
Besides general mitigation of air consider measures to comply with air
pollutant emissions in sectors such as quality limit (and target) values set in

PART 2
FIGURE 8.3 EU-28 emission reductions in 2030 relative to 2005
Reduction (% of 2005 emissions)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC
2017 legislation Remaining emissions Scope for maximum technically feasible reduction
Reduction commitments from the NEC Directive
Notes: Specific developments in each country and sector might emerge differently, particularly due to the flexibility mechanisms built into the
climate and energy package.
The maximum technically feasible reduction reflects full implementation of the technical emission control measures, going beyond
what is required by current legislation.
Source: Amann et al. (2018b).
TABLE 8.2 Summary assessment — emissions of air pollutants
Past trends There were steep declines in emissions of the main air pollutants from 2000 to 2017, although
(10-15 years) improvements slowed down after 2010. The exception is ammonia, for which emissions have increased
since 2013.
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress is expected as implementation of current policies to mitigate air pollutant emissions
continues. However, ammonia emissions are projected to decrease only slightly. Full implementation of
policies is required to deliver improvements, which will also be supported by climate change, energy and
transport legislation.
The EU as a whole is on track to meet the 2020 targets for the main air pollutants, although there are still
2020  issues regarding ammonia in some countries. However, according to reported emission projections, most
Member States are not expected to meet their reduction commitments in 2030. This is largely due to projected
developments in ammonia emissions and local/regional issues with small-scale combustion of solid fuels.
2030  Additional measures on top of current legislation are required.
Robustness Information on air pollutant emissions is robust. It is based on officially reported inventory data under the
National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive (in place since 2001). The European Commission and the Convention
on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution review emissions inventories regularly (including NEC Directive
projections in 2019). Reported emission projections, particularly those for 2030, are more uncertain, and
reporting under the 2016 revised NEC Directive only started in 2017. The emission scenarios were calculated
with the GAINS model, which uses authoritative, sound input data and is regularly used by the European
Commission for impact assessments and projections, and the underlying assumptions are documented.

PART 2
the Air Quality Directives. An example the regulated standards especially for PM,
is local air pollution abatement plans The EU is on track to meet NO2, O3 and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Taking
in cities, such as traffic restrictions that NO2 as an example, Map 8.1 shows
the 2020 emission
aim to reduce NOx and PM emissions concentrations above the annual limit
(Section 8.4). reduction targets value in 2017 all over Europe (in 17 EU-28
for all air pollutants except Member States and four other EEA-39
Figure 8.3 shows the results of the Clean for ammonia emissions countries), especially at traffic stations
Air Outlook analyses for emissions of (EEA, 2019h). This is mainly because the
in some countries.
the five main air pollutants (Amann anticipated reductions in emissions of
et al., 2018b). With legislation fully NOx have not been met in real-world
implemented, including the 2016 NEC driving conditions, and diesel engine
Directive, the EU would not only meet emissions in particular have been bigger
the emission reduction commitments Trend analyses published by the than expected.
for SO2 and NOx but also attain the 2030 EEA (EEA, 2016) showed a significant
commitments for primary PM2.5 and downward trend in annual mean High pollutant concentrations are
volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For concentrations of PM10 at 75 % of the especially serious in urban areas, where
NH3, abatement measures are driven 839 monitoring stations considered. most of the European population lives
by the NEC Directive alone, which lacks Less than 1 % of the stations registered a (Eurostat, 2018). Poor air quality in cities
ambition concerning this pollutant. significant increasing trend. On average, can be mainly attributed to the high
However, if technically feasible reduction the decreases were larger for urban levels of emissions from road traffic (as
measures were applied, the NH3 traffic stations than for those measuring the case of NO2 shows) and residential
emission reduction commitments for the urban background levels. This pattern combustion in urban areas (namely
EU could be achieved (Figure 8.3). was also consistent for PM2.5 (period for PM2.5 and BaP). In some cases the
The situation in single Member States 2006-2014). For O3, trends depend on situation is made worse by conditions
can be different, i.e. according to the the metrics used. For those metrics unfavourable for the dispersion of
scenario analyses it is envisaged that reflecting the highest concentrations, emissions because of topography and
some will surpass their commitments. the trends were decreasing. For the meteorological conditions (Box 8.1).
It is expected that other Member States annual mean, the trend at rural sites
will not reach their national emission was also decreasing, but it was small and If, instead of considering the EU
reduction commitments for one or frequently not significant. In contrast, standards, concentrations of pollutants
several pollutants (e.g. France, Germany, at traffic stations, the annual mean are compared with the WHO air quality
Poland and Spain for NH3 and also showed an upward trend. Finally, the guidelines (WHO, 2006), the picture is
several countries for PM2.5) (Amann annual mean concentrations of NO2 even more negative. Figure 8.4 shows,
et al., 2018b). A number of countries will also showed on average downward per country, a summary of the PM2.5
have to take additional measures, as full trends at all types of the 1 261 stations concentrations registered at all the
implementation of the legislation is not considered, but the trends were stronger stations in that country. While seven
sufficient. Overachievement in some in absolute terms at traffic stations. Member States and three other EEA‑39
Member States reflects the synergies countries reported concentrations
between different policies (air pollution, Even if these trends indicate a reduction above the annual limit value for PM2.5
climate and energy). in concentrations at most of the stations, in 2017 (plus another one in 2016),
there remain persistent exceedances of in only three countries were all the
concentrations reported below the
8.3.2 World Health Organization (WHO) air
Concentrations of air pollutants quality guidelines.
►See Table 8.3
A recurrent issue in recent years is the
In recent years, the air quality standards Exceedances of EU air quality occurrence of episodes of high PM
of some pollutants have only rarely been concentrations. These episodes last for
standards for particulate
exceeded, i.e. for SO2, carbon monoxide several days and can affect large parts of
(CO), benzene (C6H6) or the toxic
matter, nitrogen dioxide, Europe. Residential heating, agriculture,
metals (EEA, 2019b). Nevertheless, full ground-level ozone road transport and, to a lesser extent,
attainment of respective limit and target and benzo[a]pyrene remain. industry have been identified as the
values has not yet been achieved. main sources (Tarrasón et al., 2016;

PART 2
MAP 8.1 Annual mean NO2 concentrations in 2017
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
0°
0° 10° 20° 30° Annual mean NO2
concentrations in 2017
µg/m3
≤ 20
20-30
Svalbard 30-40
40-50
60° > 50
No data
Countries/regions not
included in the data
exchange process
50°
50
0
50°
40°
40°
Canary Is. Azores Is. 30°

-20° -30°
30° 40°
30°
Madeira Is. 0 500 1 000 1 500 km40°

0° 10° 20° 30°
Note: Observed concentrations of NO2 in 2017. Dots in the last two colour categories correspond to values above the EU annual limit value
and the equal WHO air quality guidelines (40 μg/m3). Only stations with > 75 % of valid data have been included in the map. The French
overseas territories’ stations are not shown in the map but can be found at EEA (2019j).
Source: EEA (2019a).

PART 2
FIGURE 8.4 Country comparison — PM2.5 concentrations in 2017
µg/m3
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sw on 7)
Ic en 7)
N nd 4)
)
te or n )
ng al )
D om 3)
itz ar 8)
Lu Sp nd )
m (1 )
u 7)
he a (4)
Li nd (4)
Fr an 6)
m (1 )
y 5)
pr 6)
Be atv (4)
Au m )
H ria )
Cr gar 7)
Sl tia 2)
en 1)
e )
Sl aly (8)
m ia ( )
Cz nia 1)
Bu ia )
)
)
Po rbi )
nd )
ia th 12 ey )
d ac /9 7)
ze n )
M vin (2)
ne )
o
w 10
ni P ela (36
Ki g (9
la (8
xe ain (8
er ce 7
iu (5
st (67
re (4
Ro ak 52
h 2
lg (65
ba (7
2
la a (1
sn or CR rk (97
er o (1
te (5
gr
t 1
ed ia (
el (3
d (1
Sw nm (6
bo 4
u (4
G an ia (
an 4
Cy (18
un (4
oa y (
ov (1
a 3
ec (1
Se ia(
an M 44 (3
d tu d
er k
et M rg
rla lta
L s
lg ia
G ia
It ce
Al ria
H ed 9
go ia
on a
Es d (
or (
ov (2
u
n
Ir y
th s
a
an
a
a
nl
Bo N S Tu
e
FI
N
rU
U
de
un
vo
so
Ko
Notes: The graph is based on annual mean concentration values at the station level. For each country, the number of stations considered (in
brackets), the lowest, highest and average (blue dots) concentrations and the 25th (bottom side of the box) and 75th (top side of the
box) percentiles are shown. At 25 % of the stations, levels are below the 25th percentile; at 25 % of the stations, concentrations are
above the 75th percentile. The limit value set by EU legislation is marked by the upper horizontal line. The WHO air quality guideline is
marked by the lower dashed horizontal line. The country’s situation depends on the number of operational stations. Concentrations
correspond to values measured at stations, without taking into account that, for checking compliance with the Air Quality Directive
(EU, 2008), there is the possibility of subtracting contributions from natural sources and winter road sanding/salting.
Data from Albania, Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99) and Serbia are for 2016.
Hamer et al., 2017). The formation of Clean Air Programme for Europe and 7 % of stations measuring NO2 to
secondary PM also plays an important (EC, 2013a) appears pessimistic. have concentrations above the annual
role. For example, several episodes According to the above-mentioned limit value.
in spring time are mostly due to NH3 analysis (EEA, 2016), if the averaged
coming from the use of fertilisers trend over the period 2000-2014 This outlook has also been confirmed
applied to agricultural fields and to is extrapolated to 2020, 1.6 % of by the information reported by
NOx emissions from urban traffic. In the stations are expected to still European countries as part of their
some cases, dust from the Sahara have concentrations above the plans to improve air quality. Some
also contributes to the increase in annual limit value for PM10 (and countries have indicated that they
PM concentrations. 3 % of stations for PM2.5). Similarly, anticipate achieving compliance with
7 % of stations measuring O3 are PM, NO2 and BaP legal standards
The ambition to achieve the EU legal expected to have concentrations beyond 2020 and in some cases as late
standards by 2020 as specified in the above the European target value as 2026 (EEA, 2019c).

PART 2
TABLE 8.3 Summary assessment — concentrations of air pollutants
Past trends Since 2000 there has been a decrease in concentrations of the main air pollutants.
(10-15 years)
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress is expected and full implementation of current policies would deliver reductions in fine
particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations to levels below the WHO air quality guidelines in almost all of the
EU-28. For nitrogen dioxide, around 3 % of stations are still likely to exceed the limit value (same as the WHO
guideline). For the rest of the European countries where the National Emissions Ceiling Directive is not applied,
the outlook is more uncertain without efforts to implement the Gothenburg Protocol.
Europe is not on track to meet policy objectives by 2020, as there will still be exceedances for most air quality
2020  standards. If current policies are fully implemented, the objective of meeting the WHO air quality guidelines is
expected to be achieved in most areas by 2030.
2030 
Robustness Information on air pollutant concentrations is robust enough, as the Ambient Air Quality Directives have been
in place for more than two decades and have ensured a common and comparable monitoring methodology.
The prospects to 2020 are based on trend analysis and projections of the measured air concentrations and
also on the projections reported by the Member States on their implementation of air quality plans and
measures.
Finally, the outlook to 2030 is based on the calculations of the GAINS model, used for many years for impact
assessments and projections by the European Commission, and the underlying assumptions are documented.
Looking further ahead (Section 8.3.1), premature mortality and morbidity, The fact that in many cases air pollutant
modelled scenarios suggest that the mainly related to respiratory and concentrations remain above the legal
significant decreases in precursor cardiovascular diseases (WHO, 2015). standards implies that the population’s
emissions are expected to reduce Air pollution in general, and PM as a exposure to those pollutants is also
PM2.5 concentrations in almost every separate component of air pollution high. Focusing on people living in
country below the WHO guideline mixtures, have been classified as urban areas, where higher population
by 2030 (Amann et al., 2018b). The carcinogenic (IARC, 2013). densities and high air pollution coincide,
only exceptions are expected to be in Figure 8.5 shows that a considerable
northern Italy and southern Poland. percentage of the EU-28 population is
Regarding NO2, the analysis predicts that still living in areas with concentrations
only 3 % of the almost 2 000 analysed of pollutants above the WHO air quality
monitoring stations are expected to be guidelines. Since 2000, the trend has
above the annual limit value and the been decreasing for all pollutants, with
equivalent WHO guideline by 2030. the exception of O3. That is particularly
evident for PM in the latest 6 years
shown in the figure. Nevertheless, as
8.3.3 95 % of the EU urban the starting point was high, the ambition
Impacts on human health population remain exposed of having none of the population living
and well‑being in areas where the WHO guidelines are
to pollutant concentrations
►See Table 8.4 exceeded seems unachievable by 2020.
above WHO air quality This is especially true for O3, for which
Exposure to air pollution may lead guidelines. exposure above the WHO guidelines
to adverse health impacts, such as has been stable at around 95 % of the

PART 2
FIGURE 8.5 EU urban population exposed to air pollutant concentrations above selected WHO air quality
guidelines
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
PM2.5 PM10 O3 NO2
Source: EEA (2019g).
EU-28 urban population. Considering exposure to PM2.5 is responsible for Map 8.2 shows years of life lost
the EU legal standards, up to almost around 400 000 premature deaths per 100 000 inhabitants (as a way
20 % of the EU‑28 urban population still in Europe every year (EEA, 2019b). of normalising the numbers and
lives in areas where at least one of the Exposure to NO2 and O3 were making countries easily comparable
standards is exceeded (EEA, 2019g). responsible for around 70 000 and independently of their size and
15 000 premature deaths in 2017, population) in 2016 for PM2.5. The
It is anticipated that the commitments respectively. These calculations are largest relative impacts are observed
to reduce air pollutant emissions by made for individual pollutants in the central and eastern European
2030 under the revised NEC Directive without taking into account that countries where the highest
(Figure 8.2) will result in a reduction pollution is a mix of all of them and concentrations are also observed,
in the population exposed to PM2.5 concentrations are in some cases i.e. ordered by relative impacts, Kosovo
concentrations above the WHO guideline correlated. Therefore, the impacts (under UNSCR 1244/99), Serbia,
to around 13 % by 2030, and in most of cannot simply be aggregated, as this Bulgaria, Albania and North Macedonia.
those locations the exceedances will be may result in double counting of The detailed data for each country,
small enough to be addressed by local the effects (EEA, 2019b). The impacts of together with the impacts of NO2 and
measures (Amann et al., 2018b). air pollution may also be expressed in O3, can be found in the EEA’s report on
The latest estimations indicate that terms of years of life lost (1). air quality in Europe (EEA, 2019b).
(1) Years of life lost (YLL) are defined as the years of potential life lost due to premature death. YLL is an estimate of the number of years that people
in a population would have lived had there been no premature deaths. The YLL measure takes into account the age at which deaths occur and
therefore the contribution to the total is greater for a death occurring at a young age than that for a death occurring at an older age (EEA, 2018a).

PART 2
MAP 8.2 Estimated years of life lost per 100 000 population attributable to exposure to PM2.5 in European
countries in 2016
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70°
0°
Years of life lost (YLL) per
100 000 population
attributable to exposure
to PM2.5 in European
countries (2016)
YLL/100 000
< 469
469-552
60°
553-907
908-1 276
> 1 277
50
0
50°
No data
Outside coverage
50°
40°
40°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km

0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
Note: YLL, years of life lost. The classification of values in map legends is quantiles, so one fifth of countries fall in each class. The calculations
are made for all of Europe and they may differ for specific studies at country level.
Source: Based on EEA (2019b).
400 000
A recent study (ETC/ACM et al., 2018) about 60 % in Europe between 1990
assessed the long-term trends in the and 2015.
exposure of the European population
to PM2.5 concentrations from 1990 to Existing scientific evidence (EEA, 2018c)
premature deaths per year 2015 and the associated premature shows that in Europe some groups
in Europe are attributable deaths. The study points to a median are more affected by air pollution
decrease in premature mortality than others because they are also
to exposure to PM2.5 .
attributed to exposure to PM2.5 of more exposed or vulnerable to

PART 2
TABLE 8.4 Summary assessment — air pollution impacts on human health and well-being
Past trends Europe’s air quality is improving and although fine particulate matter (PM2.5) still causes serious impacts
(10-15 years) on health, there has been an estimated 60 % reduction in premature mortality attributed to exposure to
PM2.5 since 1990.
Outlook to 2030 Full implementation of current policies is expected to deliver projected reductions in premature deaths
attributable to PM2.5 of 54 % by 2030. However, 194 000 premature deaths are estimated to occur, which
indicates that there is still a need to substantially reduce the number of premature deaths and illnesses from
air pollution.
2030 The 54 % reduction in premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 anticipated by 2030 goes beyond the 52 %
 objective set by the 2013 Clean Air Programme for Europe.
Robustness Analysis of past trends has used different data sets but a common methodology to estimate the number of
premature deaths. Although the different data sets show a wide range of final results, the median values have
been considered.
The main uncertainty in the health risk assessments is the concentration-response functions used. The
functions recommended by WHO have been used in all calculations. Finally, for prospects, the GAINS model
has again been used and the underlying assumptions are documented.
environmental hazards. Older people, and to invasions of new species. When
54 %
children and those with pre-existing this happens, the so-called critical load
health conditions are more vulnerable, for eutrophication by nitrogen is
while lower socio‑economic groups exceeded (Box 8.2). NH3 and NOx,
tend to be more exposed (Chapter 14). together with SO2, also contribute to
For a ‘business as usual’ (i.e. baseline) of premature deaths from the acidification of soil, lakes and rivers,
emissions scenario, models project PM2.5 in Europe could be causing biodiversity loss.
that the impacts of air pollution are
avoided by 2030 if current
expected to continue decreasing. The cooperative programme for
Beyond 2020, and without further policies are implemented fully. monitoring and evaluation of the
measures, reductions in the impacts on long‑range transmission of air pollutants
health are expected to continue but at in Europe (EMEP) shows that in 2016
a considerably slower rate (Maas and critical loads for eutrophication were
Grennfelt, 2016). According to the EEA exceeded in virtually all European
(EEA, 2015), around 144 000 premature 8.3.4 countries, in about 62 % of the
deaths could be avoided in the EU in Impacts on ecosystems ecosystem area (EMEP, 2018). This
2012, compared with the real situation, ►See Table 8.5 confirms that, although the magnitude
if the WHO air quality guidelines had of critical load exceedances decreased in
been attained. According to Amman Air pollution may directly affect most areas, deposition of atmospheric
et al. (2018b), taking into account vegetation and fauna and the quality of nitrogen remains a threat to ecosystem
the overachievements in reducing water and soils as well as the ecosystem health. In 2016, the highest exceedances
emissions that might result from fully services that they support. The occurred in the Po valley (Italy), on the
implementing EU legislation, premature atmospheric deposition of nitrogen as Dutch‑German-Danish border and
deaths attributable to PM2.5 are expected nitrate and ammonium compounds can in north-eastern Spain. Steps taken
to decline by 54 % from 2005 to 2030 disrupt terrestrial and aquatic to mitigate emissions of nitrogen
(from 418 000 cases to 194 000), ecosystems by introducing excessive compounds have to date been
assuming a constant population amounts of nutrient nitrogen, which insufficient to provide conditions in
between 2005 and 2030. can lead to changes in species diversity which ecosystems can begin to recover

PART 2
TABLE 8.5 Summary assessment — air pollution and impacts on ecosystems
Past trends Lower emissions of air pollutants have contributed to fewer exceedances of acidification and
(10-15 years) eutrophication limits. However, in 2016, the critical loads for eutrophication were still exceeded in over
62 % of the European ecosystem area.
Outlook to 2030 Further progress is expected regarding acidification of forest soils and freshwaters due to reductions in
atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen deposition. A few acidification hot spots are expected to remain in 2030
due to regional ammonia emissions. Furthermore, there is a time lag between reducing emissions and the
recovery of ecosystems. The total area where critical loads for eutrophication are exceeded is projected to be
49 % of European ecosystems, although the magnitude of exceedance is expected to be significantly less than
in 2005 in most areas.
Europe is on track to meet policy targets to reduce the acidification of sensitive ecosystems. However, Europe
2020  is not on track to meet policy targets to reduce eutrophication, which aim to reduce the ecosystem area
exceeding eutrophication limits to 35 % by 2030. Current projections suggest that 49 % of the area is expected
to still be in exceedance of critical loads.
2030 
Robustness Critical loads exceedance modelling requires input from many different sources, and hence it is subject to
uncertainty. Critical loads are based on information provided by the scientific community in the Working
Group on Effects under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. The critical loads concept
has been applied and developed for around four decades.
from eutrophication. Thus, further the area in exceedance to be reduced opening and closing of the stomata
reductions are necessary (Maas and to 35 % (Table 8.1). The outlook under, for example, different conditions
Grennfelt, 2016), particularly of suggests that biodiversity in 58 % of of temperature, humidity and light
NH3 emissions. all Natura 2000 areas is expected to intensity (Mills et al., 2017).
still be at risk in 2030 due to excessive
The Clean Air Outlook analysis suggests atmospheric nitrogen deposition
that achieving compliance with the (Amann et al., 2018b). 8.4
commitments to reduce emissions Responses and prospects
(Section 8.3.1) will not achieve the The percentage of agricultural areas of meeting agreed targets
improvements suggested in the 2013 in the EEA-33 exposed to O3 levels and objectives
European Commission proposal for the above the EU legal concentration
NEC Directive by 2030 (Amann et al., standards has fluctuated between Europe is moving towards the air
2018b). In 2005, 67 % of European 15 and 69 % over the period 2000-2017, pollutant emissions and concentration
ecosystems were exposed to nitrogen with some interannual variations due objectives and targets framed in the EU
deposition exceeding the critical loads to meteorological conditions (EEA, legislation. Effects-based abatement
(78 % of the protected Natura 2000 2019i). How this exposure affects crops measures under the 1979 CLRTAP and
areas). According to the scenario that is uncertain. According to current its protocols, mirrored in EU legislation,
assumes that Member States meet the scientific knowledge, the so-called O3 have led to a sharp decline in emissions,
commitments to reduce emissions, flux-approach is a better indicator especially of SO2. Economic growth
this area would be 49 % in 2030, of O3 damage to vegetation. This and trends in air pollution have been
although the magnitude of exceedance methodology estimates the amount progressively decoupled.
is expected to be significantly less of O3 that actually enters the plant
than in 2005 in most areas. The Clean via small pores (stomata) on the leaf Maas and Grennfelt (2016) estimated
Air for Europe Programme calls for surface. The amount depends on the that, if economic growth and air

PART 2
pollution trends were not decoupled,

exceedance of critical loads for BOX 8.2
acidification in Europe would be
The critical loads concept
30 times higher than currently and
three times higher for eutrophication
caused by airborne nitrogen. Average Economic growth and trends
A critical load is a ‘quantitative
estimate of an exposure to one or
more pollutants below which significant
PM2.5 levels would be similar to levels in in air pollution have been harmful effects on specified sensitive
current European hot spots, with health elements of the environment do not
progressively decoupled.
impacts three times higher, and around occur according to present knowledge’
600 000 more European citizens would (UNECE, 2018b). It represents the upper
have died prematurely. Health impacts limit of one or more pollutants deposited
from O3 would be 70 % higher and O3 on the Earth’s surface that an ecosystem,
damage to crops 30 % higher. Overall, reach the long‑term objectives of such as a lake or a forest, can tolerate
average life expectancy is 12 months achieving levels of air quality that do without its function (e.g. the nutrient
more than in the hypothetical unabated not give rise to significant negative nitrogen cycle) or its structure (e.g. with
world. impacts on, and risks to, human health respect to plant species’ richness) being
and the environment. damaged.
Efficient implementation of EU air quality
standards includes effective action at The reasons are, first, that not all A positive difference between the
various governance levels, i.e. at national, sectors reduced their emissions at deposition loads of acidifying and/or
regional and local levels, and across the same pace (e.g. agriculture). eutrophying airborne pollutants and the
administrative boundaries between Second, integration of air policy critical loads is termed an ‘exceedance’.
public authorities as well as across with other policies such as those on Areas and magnitude of exceedance are
different sectors (EC, 2018c). However, climate has also resulted in trade‑offs. visualised in a map in the EEA indicator
achieving policy coherence across The European Court of Auditors ‘Exposure of ecosystems to acidification,
administrative and governance levels is recommends that the Commission eutrophication and ozone (EEA, 2019i). ■
challenging, as are efforts to generate takes action to better align policies
political and public support for improving that contain elements that can be
air quality beyond the minimum EU detrimental to clean air (e.g. climate
standards (EEA, 2019f). A coherent and energy, transport, industry and
planning approach to reducing air agriculture policies) with the air
pollution includes local air quality plans quality objectives (ECA, 2018). Third,
and urban planning in general, national the various levels of implementation
air pollution control programmes for of measures require coordination of
reducing sectoral emissions and national the international, national, regional
energy and climate plans. The European and local governance levels (see, for
Commission will continue to support example, the implementation of the
countries to achieve clean air goals, for Ambient Air Quality Directives). Finally,
example through clean air dialogue there are some sectors or mechanisms
with EU Member States, the EU urban that may be underestimated in
agenda and the European Structural emissions inventories. Examples
and Investment Funds or by facilitating are resuspension of PM, the
domestic funding schemes that allow condensable fraction of primary
investment in low- and zero-emission PM or international shipping and
mobility (EC, 2018b). aviation. As the relationship between
emitted pollutants and measured
However, for most of the main air concentrations is not linear, the use
pollutants, EU Member States and EEA of models, which include processes
member countries still fail to achieve assessing chemistry, dispersion and
some national emission ceilings, (changes in) meteorology, is essential to
some of the EU air quality standards help understand the relation between
and, especially, the WHO air quality emission sources and concentrations in
guidelines. This makes it difficult to ambient air.

PART 2
FIGURE 8.6 Examples of the main air pollution mitigation measures in place and planned in the pilot cities
Energy-efficient buildings with insulation, renewable energy sources
Relocation of factories/industrial sites out of urban areas
Measures to reduce diffusive dust emissions in ports
Substitution of old, dirty stoves and boilers with clean models
District heating
Fuel conversion in domestic heating
Ban on coal for household heating/cooking
Low-sulphur fuels for shipping fuels in port area
Electric buses, trams, Euro VI or retrofitted buses
Reduced speed limits/congestion charges
Promotion of cycling
Low-emission zone
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of cities
Planned Implemented
Source: EEA (2019f).
8.4.1 Nevertheless, some trade-offs between

Synergies and trade-offs between air Reducing greenhouse gas policies are obvious, for instance in
pollution and climate policies emissions, as well as fuel and transport, promoting the uptake of
diesel vehicles because of their lower
Greenhouse gases (GHG) and air
energy use, not only benefits CO2 emissions entailed higher real-world
pollutants have mostly common energy efficiency and climate emissions of NO2, worsening the air
emission sources. The 2020 climate change but also improves quality situation in cities (see below).
and energy package (Chapter 7) Promoting biomass as a carbon-neutral
air quality.
implies reduced use of fuel and fuel for domestic heating contributes to
energy, reduced GHG and air pollutant a local increase in PM2.5, BaP and black
emissions and thus co-benefits in carbon concentrations (EEA, 2016).
the form of improved air quality. The
European Commission has proposed
a strategy for achieving a climate- Achieving a net-zero GHG emissions 8.4.2
neutral economy by 2050. The EU has economy on top of existing air pollution Air quality management in cities
implemented many legislative acts measures is expected to reduce
aimed at reducing the emissions of premature deaths caused by PM2.5 by In 2018, the EEA undertook a follow-up
the most important GHGs, and several more than 40 % and reduce the cost of of the 2013 air implementation pilot
of those also result in reductions in damage to health by around EUR 200 organised by the EEA in cooperation with
emissions of air pollutants (Chapter 7). billion per year (EC, 2018a). A recent the European Commission (EEA, 2013).
One example is the goal to decarbonise study suggests that worldwide air The follow-up project re-assessed the
European transport by 2050 through quality benefits on morbidity, mortality challenges of implementing EU air
mobility and energy transitions and agriculture could globally offset the quality legislation in 10 European cities.
(Chapter 13). Tackling climate change costs of implementing climate policies All urban authorities stated that the air
requires global mitigation efforts. (Vandyck et al., 2018). quality in their cities had improved since

PART 2
2013, mainly due to implementing EU enforce implementation of measures

policies (EEA, 2019f). Due to the transboundary to improve air quality. The European
Court of Auditors has recommended
nature of air pollution,
Although most abatement measures advancing the deadline for reporting
address emissions from road traffic, action and cooperation at these data from 30 September of
mainly of NOx and PM (EEA, 2019f), global, national and local levels the following year to at least 30 June
other pollutant sources are now being are required. (ECA, 2018). Countries also report
tackled, for example fuel combustion up-to-date data on an hourly basis to
in residential stoves, inland shipping or keep citizens informed about the air
construction and demolition activities, quality situation in ‘near-real time’. This
including emissions from non-road allows the EEA to inform citizens about
mobile machinery (Figure 8.6). to the successful implementation of the air quality situation in the whole
air quality plans established under the of Europe via its up-to‑date viewer (3).
Cities express the need for a more EU’s Ambient Air Quality Directives. The Based on these timely data, the EEA
comprehensive approach across Europe European Court of Auditors recommends in cooperation with the European
to allow an improved and more regular making air quality plans results Commission has developed a tool
exchange of knowledge and experience oriented and reporting to the European to provide more easily understood
of, for example, good practice and Commission on a yearly basis on their information for European citizens:
capacity building. They stress that implementation (ECA, 2018). Overall, the European air quality index (4). This
implementing air quality legislation achieving coherence between control index fulfils the Court of Auditors’
on the local scale would be beneficial programmes and air quality plans, recommendation to seek agreement
if initiatives at the national and/or addressing air pollutants as well as GHG on harmonising air quality indices
EU level were implemented and took emissions, is essential for improving the (ECA, 2018).
effect. Examples are the enforcement of air pollution situation in Europe.
type approval procedures for vehicles Assessment of air quality depends
(e.g. mandatory compliance testing of not only on measurements taken at
vehicles during use), national-/EU-level 8.4.3 monitoring points but also on results
labelling schemes based on real-world Timely information and involving obtained from air quality models. Several
driving emissions or product-specific citizens countries report modelling results, mainly
regulations (ecodesign, energy labelling). as a supplementary assessment method.
The Ambient Air Quality Directives The European Commission aims to
Local transport authorities need to decide have proved to be very efficient streamline environmental reporting, and
on the implementation of low-emission in establishing a strong European one suggestion is to make ‘better use of
zones, urban road tolling systems, Monitoring Network (2) with around data generated through the Copernicus
charging schemes to reduce congestion in 4 000 monitoring stations managed programme’ (EC, 2017). The Copernicus
the city centres or a general reduction in by countries’ competent authorities Atmosphere Monitoring Service
congestion by fostering the development and reporting data annually to the (CAMS, 2018) uses an ensemble of leading
of alternative modes of transport and EEA. These stations measure air European chemical dispersion models,
the use of cleaner, more energy-efficient pollutant concentrations following considering changes in meteorology, to
vehicles. With improved EU guidance, common rules, methodologies and forecast air pollution and to analyse past
urban vehicle access regulation schemes agreed quality controls. Countries pollution episodes (e.g. Tarrasón et al.,
can be a basis for such planning (Ricci officially report concentrations of air 2018). The CAMS approach includes
et al., 2017). pollutants to the EEA to comply with the the use of up-to‑date and validated
requirements of the Directives. First, measurement data reported to the EEA
Under the NEC Directive (EU, 2016), these measurements are validated under the Ambient Air Quality Directives.
Member States are required to draw values, reported on a yearly basis and
up national air pollution control used by the European Commission to A key new element of the Copernicus
programmes, which should contribute check compliance with standards and space component is based on the
(2) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/dashboards/air-quality-statistics
(3) https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/explore-interactive-maps/up-to-date-air-quality-data
(4) https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/air-quality-index/index

PART 2
‘Sentinel missions’. The latest constitutes system, helping to reduce impacts on

a sentinel (5P) with the tropospheric climate change and air quality. By 2030,
monitoring instrument (Tropomi) on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could
board, a state-of-the-art instrument that be between 3.9 % and 13.0 % of new
can map pollutants such as NO2, methane car registrations, depending on the
(CH4), CO, SO2 and PM (ESA, 2019). Citizens are better informed EU-wide fleet average CO2 target levels
Currently, the main use of such satellite about air pollution through set for passenger cars in the future
data is mapping, monitoring and detecting (EEA, 2018b). As the new Regulation on
real time air quality
trends. The potential use of such data CO2 emission performance standards
for improving emission inventories or information. (EU, 2019) requires a reduction of
information on air quality, for example 37.5 % by 2030 compared with 2021,
within CAMS, still needs evaluation. it seems likely that the share will be at
the higher end of this range. However,
Another suggestion from the European the environmental impacts of BEVs,
Commission (EC, 2017) is to ‘promote They contribute significantly not only and their advantages or disadvantages
the wider use of citizen science to to local and regional, but also global relative to vehicles with an internal
complement environmental reporting’. air (and climate) pollution. Each sector combustion engine, are influenced by
More and more European citizens has great potential for change, not a range of key variables associated
wish to measure air quality in their only through technical innovations for with vehicle design, vehicle choice
surroundings themselves using simple effectiveness such as design or changes and use patterns, reuse and recycling
diffusion tubes or so-called low-cost in practices, but also with respect to the and the electricity generation mix.
sensors. This raises peoples’ awareness potential introduction of new or different There is, therefore, an increasing need
regarding air quality problems and can fiscal measures to promote the uptake to understand BEVs from a systems
contribute to changes in behaviour. of cleaner transport technologies and/or perspective. This involves an in-depth
Cooperation with city, regional or changes in societal behaviour. At present consideration of the environmental
national authorities is an opportunity for example, many different types of impact of the product using life cycle
to re-establish trust in the work of subsidies are extended to existing assessment approaches (EEA, 2018b).
these institutions and their official manufacturers, infrastructure providers
measurements. A recent example of a and operators, all of which can inhibit International rather than local
well-planned and coordinated citizen shifting to a more sustainable mobility factors are largely responsible for the
science initiative is the ‘curious noses’ system. Across the different modes, significant demand for transport from
project in Flanders, Belgium, in which unequal forms of fuel taxation can the aviation and shipping sectors,
20 000 people measured the air quality similarly potentially prevent investment driven, for example, by the globalisation
(NO2) near their own houses and near and shifting to more environmentally of trade and often led by consumers
schools during May 2018. The results are friendly types of passenger and freight through tourism and the global supply
also being used to improve a regional transport. chains of certain types of food and
air quality model (CurieuzeNeuzen manufactured goods. This requires
Vlaanderen, 2018). With regard to passenger road implementing international abatement
transport, and especially in cities, measures, which is challenging because
electric vehicles are expected to be a key agreements are only slowly reached
8.4.4 future component of Europe’s mobility (EEA, 2017; Engleryd and Grennfelt,
Europe’s transport sectors have 2018). Examples of measures in place
great potential for positive change are global ship fuel sulphur limits or
sulphur and NOx emission control
The increasing demand for domestic and areas, so far only established in
international road transport, aviation Europe in the Baltic and North Seas.
and shipping services, key components To further improve air quality, Airports have a similar infrastructure
of Europe’s mobility system, also leads additional efforts focused on to that of cities: emissions from the
to increased pressures on human health, the food, mobility and energy numerous ground support services,
the environment and climate (EEA, 2017). such as vehicles operating at or around
These sectors are important sources of
systems are needed runways, airport heating, and transport
NOx, primary and secondary PM, and to reduce emissions. to and from airports by passengers
SOx (the latter in particular for shipping). and freight services all significantly

PART 2
contribute to the emissions of air to introduce additional measures to There are no farm size thresholds in place,
pollutants. Changing local mobility reach the NEC Directive commitments and the current tendency is increasingly
systems is challenging, but it offers to reduce PM2.5 and especially NH3. to establish big industrial-scale farms,
many opportunities to improve local air Regarding primary PM2.5 emissions from particularly in some countries. While the
quality (Section 8.4.2). agriculture, one low-cost measure is to Industrial Emissions Directive (EU, 2010)
ban the open-air burning of agricultural covers big pig and poultry farms, cattle
waste. farms are not regulated.
8.4.5
Technical and non-technical Technical solutions for sustainable Indirectly, reducing food waste or
abatement measures can reduce reductions in NH3 emissions in the increasing overall efficiency in the food
nitrogen emissions agriculture sector are available. They chain will also reduce air pollutant
include low-emission techniques emissions from agriculture. In a Nordic
Agriculture is the economic sector in for spreading manures and mineral Council of Ministers report, Engleryd
which air pollutant emissions have been fertilisers, the measure with the greatest and Grennfelt (2018) raise the possibility
reduced the least. NH3 emissions are potential to reduce NH3 emissions, and of linking agricultural subsidies to
still high and have even increased in animal feeding strategies (EC, 2019a). obligations to reduce emissions as well as
recent years, favouring the formation According to a study by the International producing healthy food. Furthermore, the
of secondary PM in the air, which Institute for Applied Systems Analysis editors of the report suggest including the
contributes to episodes of high PM (IIASA), based on Eurostat data, disposing environment in national and international
concentrations and exceedances of air of manure from livestock farming causes dietary guidance. Such measures,
quality standards (Section 8.3.2). about 78 % of all NH3 emissions in which particularly aim to reduce the
the EU‑28. A total of 80 % of manures consumption of (red) meat would also
High NH3 emissions are the main reason originate from 4 % of farms housing reduce CO2 emissions from agriculture.
why atmospheric nitrogen deposition is more than 50 livestock units (LSU). The In conclusion, Engleryd and Grennfelt
still, and is expected to remain, a major largest farms (with more than 500 LSU), recommend joining up approaches
threat to sensitive ecosystems such as represent about 0.3 % of all farms, across the nitrogen cycle and state that
nutrient-poor grasslands (Chapter 3). and IIASA estimates that they produce an overarching EU nitrogen policy, which
NH3 is also the main reason why a few manure that releases about 22 % of all aims to improve nitrogen resource
hot spots in Europe still exceed the NH3 emissions. Variations across the efficiency and reduce nitrogen waste,
critical loads for ecosystem acidification. Member States are large, reflecting the would have considerable co‑benefits
According to Amman et al. (2018b) different structures of the agricultural for air, climate, water and the economy
several EU Member States will need systems in the EU (Amann et al., 2017). (Chapter 14).

09.
Waste and
resources
in a circular
economy
2
© Erik Forsberg
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• Increasing resource efficiency, • At the other end of the materials • Recently, policies have started to
preventing waste generation and chain, Europe continues to generate improve the framework conditions
using waste as a resource are at the a large amount of waste but is for a circular economy, albeit with
core of the circular economy, and increasingly moving towards more the main focus on waste. In order to
have considerable potential to reduce recycling. However, progress is slow fully realise the potential benefits,
environmental pressures both within and several countries are at risk of not it will be crucial to design materials
Europe and outside Europe’s borders. meeting agreed targets. Waste-related and products in a way that enables
These strategies may also contribute targets and requirements will help durability, reuse, repair and upgrading,
to alleviating the growing concern over Europe to increase recycling, although refurbishment, remanufacturing
Europe’s dependency on imported the prospects for reducing waste and recycling, and that prevents
resources and over securing access to generation are less certain. contamination of material cycles.
critical raw materials, some of which
play a fundamental role in deploying • Overall, the large amounts of
low-carbon, renewable energy resources used and waste generated
technologies. and the rather low contribution of
recycled materials to the material
• Resource use in the economy of the demands of the economy indicate that
28 EU Member States declined over the Europe is still far away from the goal of
last decade, while resource productivity becoming a circular economy.
improved. This was largely due to
trends in overall economic growth
and certain structural changes in the
economy, rather than a result of direct
policy intervention. Resource efficiency
is expected to further improve in
Europe, albeit with increasing levels of
material resource use.

objectives/targets
Circular use of materials Improving trends Developments show a Partly

dominate mixed picture  on track
Material resource efficiency Improving trends Developments show a Largely

dominate mixed picture  on track
Waste generation Trends show a mixed Developments show a Partly

picture mixed picture  on track
Waste management Improving trends Improving developments Partly

dominate dominate  on track
4 par A
PART 2
09.
Waste and resources
in a circular economy
9.1 management, thereby moving towards

Scope of the theme a circular, low-carbon economy and
carbon neutrality. The EU’s circular
Increasing resource efficiency, economy action plan (EC, 2015) provides
preventing waste generation and using a framework of measures towards
waste as a resource are important Resource efficiency, waste achieving these objectives (Chapter 2)
strategies on the road to the circular across the life cycle of materials and
prevention and using waste as
economy (Figure 9.1). They have products. While the revised Waste
considerable potential to reduce the
a resource are at the core Framework Directive (EU, 2008, 2018b)
environmental pressures associated with of the circular economy. and other revised waste directives
Europe’s economic activities (both within introduce a large range of new
Europe and outside), as well as bringing provisions aiming to move waste up
benefits to the economy. Therefore, the waste hierarchy, other measures
they are important environmental goals aim to align other policy areas, such as
in Europe. chemicals, ecodesign and water use,
batteries). While food waste, hazardous with circular economy goals.
The scope of this chapter covers waste, construction and demolition
material resources (including the use of waste, and mining waste are important The EU has not set quantitative
material resources, resource efficiency, waste streams, they have not been targets for the use of resources or for
and security of supply and access assessed in this chapter. improvements in resource productivity,
to critical raw materials) and waste although a few Member States have
(including waste prevention, and waste adopted national targets. In recent years,
generation and management). Total 9.2 policies on ensuring security of supply of
waste, excluding major mineral wastes, Policy landscape raw materials, and in particular access
has been selected as a broad waste type to critical raw materials, increasingly
for the assessment, together with some The overall objectives of EU and address resource use (EC, 2008, 2011b).
subcategories for which specific targets European countries’ policies related For industrial facilities, the Industrial
apply (municipal waste, packaging to waste and resources are to Emissions Directive (EU, 2010) requires
waste, waste electrical and electronic improve resource efficiency, reduce improving material efficiency and
equipment, end-of-life vehicles, waste generation and improve waste reducing waste generation; however,
SOER 2020/Waste and resources in a circular economy 213

PART 2
FIGURE 9.1 Circular economy system diagram States are obliged to take measures
on waste prevention including food
ENERGY waste and plastic bags and to report
on reuse. Most recently, the Single-use
Plastics Directive introduces, inter alia,
a ban on certain plastics items, targets
for separate collection and recycled
PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION
content for plastic bottles and producer
responsibility schemes for cigarette
UTE, REFURB butts and fishing gear (EU, 2019b).
RIB ISH
IST ,R
ED
R
EM
In addition, several of the United Nations

,
IR
AN
PA
ECODESIGN CONSUMPTION 2030 Sustainable Development Goals

UFA
REUSE, RE
AND STOCK (SDGs) address waste and resources,

CTURE
notably SDG 12 on sustainable

consumption.
Biolog
Techni
ical
Table 9.1 presents a selected set of

cal m
ma
relevant policy objectives and targets

ate
te
addressed in this report.

ria
ria
ls
ls
MATERIALS WASTE 9.3

R E C Y C LIN G
Key trends and outlooks
EMISSIONS
9.3.1
Circular use of materials
►See Table 9.2
Minimise The circular economy aims to keep

materials and products in use for as long
as possible, extracting the maximum
value from them while in use and
recycling them at the end of their life
cycle. From a circular and low-carbon
economy perspective, achieving a
more circular use of materials is key
Extraction and import of natural Incineration Landfill to improving resource efficiency and
resources, including energy carriers
helps to reduce the demand for virgin
materials (EEA, 2016a). The European
Commission’s circular economy
monitoring framework (EC, 2018c)
aims to measure progress towards
the circular economy. It focuses on
macroeconomic indicators and waste,
the related best available techniques reuse, recycling and other recovery and reflecting a lack of data on new business
conclusions currently contain no binding finally disposal as the least desirable models, longevity of products, reuse,
provisions in this area (Chapter 12). option (EU, 2008, 2018b). In line with the repair and remanufacturing.
waste hierarchy, EU waste legislation
The waste hierarchy is the overarching includes more than 30 binding targets The road towards a more circular use
principle of EU waste policies in which for the management of waste for the of materials and products starts at
waste prevention has the highest period 2015-2035 but none for waste the very beginning of the life cycle.
priority, followed by preparing for prevention. However, EU Member One of the most important factors is
214 SOER 2020/Waste and resources in a circular economy

PART 2
Resource use and efficiency
Improve resource efficiency 7th EAP (EU, 2013); Roadmap to a 2020 Non-binding
resource efficient Europe (EC, 2011a) commitments
Strive towards an absolute decoupling of economic 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
growth and environmental degradation commitments
Create more with less, delivering greater value 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2050 Non-binding
with less input, using resources in a sustainable way commitments
and minimising their impacts on the environment
Achieve the sustainable management and efficient SDG 12.2 (global, national) 2030 Non-binding
use of natural resources (UN, 2015); 7th EAP (EU, 2013) commitments
Waste generation and management
50 %/55 %/60 %/65 % of municipal waste is prepared Waste Framework Directive 2020/2025/2030/2035 Legally binding
for reuse or recycled (differing calculation method (EU, 2008, 2018b)
for the 50 % target)
Reduce landfill of biodegradable municipal waste Landfill Directive (EU, 1999) 2006/2009/2013 Legally binding
to 75 %/50 %/35 % of the same waste generated
in 1995
Reduce landfill to a maximum of 10 % of Landfill Directive (EU, 1999, 2018a) 2035 Legally binding
municipal waste generated
Specific targets for collection, recycling and/or Waste Framework Directive 2008-2035 Legally binding
recovery of packaging waste, construction and (EU, 2008, 2018b), Packaging Waste
demolition waste, WEEE, end-of-life vehicles, Directive (EU, 1994, 2018c), WEEE
batteries, single-use plastics (incl. market Directive, ELV Directive (EU, 2000),
restrictions and requirements Batteries Directive (EU, 2006);
for recycled content) Single‑use Plastics Directive
(EU, 2019b))
All plastics packaging should be recyclable EU plastics strategy (EC, 2018a) 2030 Non-binding
commitments
Waste generation to decline absolutely and per 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
capita, and reduction and sound management commitments
of hazardous waste
Energy recovery to be limited to non-recyclable 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
waste commitments
Halve per capita global food waste at the retail SDG 12.3 (UN, 2015) 2030 Non-binding
and consumer levels and reduce food losses commitments
along production and supply chains, including
post‑harvest losses
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; ELV Directive, End-of-life Vehicles Directive; WEEE Directive, Waste Electrical and
Electronic Equipment Directive.
the design of materials and products. components for reuse. Avoiding the use contain significant quantities of recycled
Better design can make products last of substances of concern reduces both materials, and reused components can
longer and repairable, easier to be environmental and health hazards as be integrated into new products. The
disassembled at the end of their life and well as waste management costs and design of products and materials heavily
recycled, and hence can help recyclers enables clean material cycles. Moreover, influences the costs of subsequent steps
to recover valuable materials and through better design, products can towards using waste as a resource and

PART 2
FIGURE 9.2 Trends in the circular material use rate, EU-28
Cirular material use rate (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Metal ores (gross ores) Non-metallic minerals Total Biomass Fossil energy materials
Source: Eurostat (2019a).
thus the competitiveness of secondary EU economy (British Geological Survey

materials compared with virgin A more circular use of et al., 2017).
materials.
materials is key to improving
While the CMU rate gives a general
The ‘circular material use’ (CMU) rate resource efficiency and to picture at an aggregated level, the
(EC, 2018c) — one of the indicators in the reducing the demand for contribution of secondary materials
circular economy monitoring framework virgin materials. to material use varies significantly
— measures the contribution of recycled among different materials. The
materials to the overall demand for highest contributions are found for
materials. The higher this rate, the lead (75 %) and silver (55 %). Among
lower the need for extracting primary the critical raw materials, the highest
raw materials. In the period 2004-2016, shares are found for vanadium (44 %),
the CMU rate in the 28 EU Member recycling processes compared with tungsten (42 %) and cobalt (35 %). This
States (EU-28) slowly, but steadily, extracting raw materials and primary is partly a result of materials being
increased from about 8 % to around production (EC, 2018h; OECD, 2019). used in easily collected appliances.
12 %. The CMU rate is highest for metals As the availability and concentrations It is also driven by waste legislation
and metal ores, followed by non-metallic of ores are generally decreasing, the that requires recycling of materials
minerals (Figure 9.2). role of recycling becomes even more and the extraction and recovery of
crucial to guarantee the security of the specific components from products at
Recycling is also key for improving supply of raw materials, especially for the end of life (EC, 2018h). However,
environmental sustainability, due those that are considered critical to the for most low-volume metals and rare
to the generally lower impacts of functioning and competitiveness of the Earth elements, recycling contributes

PART 2
FIGURE 9.3 Trends in materials use by type of material, EU-28
Billion tonnes DMC
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Non-metallic minerals Biomass Fossil energy materials Metal ores (gross ores)
Note: 2017 data are Eurostat estimates.
Source: Eurostat (2019g).
only marginally to meeting the • material quality becoming degraded now identified as substances of concern
demand for materials. This is because during collection and processing pose risks to health (such as phthalates)
primary extraction is often cheaper (downcycling), (Pivnenko et al., 2016) and create a large
than recycling or recovery, as these burden for society, and such legacy
materials are integrated into products • build-up of stocks; materials will have to be managed
in small quantities, making their for many years to come (Chapter 10).
recycling costly. It is worth noting that • product designs that impede Turning waste into a resource requires
demand for these materials in modern recycling; addressing these limiting factors,
technologies such as renewable and several initiatives are under way.
energy systems and communication, • lack of suitable recycling For example, the new recycling targets
are expected to increase rapidly (EC, infrastructure; and related requirements in the revised
2018h) (Box 9.1). waste directives require stepping up
• contamination with hazardous recycling efforts. The European strategy
Many factors currently limit recycling’s substances; and for plastics in a circular economy
potential to meet materials demand, (EC, 2018a) envisages measures to
including (EC, 2018f): • economic factors resulting, improve the economics and quality of
for example, from the need for plastics recycling, and the European
• dissipative material losses during the decontamination and price competition Chemicals Agency is developing a
use phase of a product; with virgin materials. database of hazardous materials
in products (EU, 2008, 2018b). The
• loss of material through improper Materials containing substances that Single‑use Plastics Directive for the first
collection; were previously widely used but are time sets a target for recycled content,

PART 2
TABLE 9.2 Summary assessment — circular use of materials
Past trends The limited available data show a slowly improving trend from a very low baseline.
(10-15 years)
Outlook to 2030 The implementation of policies focused on the circular economy, ensuring security of supply and the
low‑carbon economy and carbon neutrality agenda is expected to foster the circular use of materials.
However, the uncertain outlook for resource use might hamper improvements, and multiple barriers to
exploiting the full potential of reuse, refurbishment, remanufacturing and recycling need addressing.
2030 Europe is partially on track regarding meeting the circular economy objective to keep resources in use for as
long as possible by extracting the maximum value from them while in use, and recycling and regenerating
 products and materials at the end of their life cycles. Existing targets are likely to drive the economy towards
more circularity but the pace of development is currently highly uncertain.
Robustness The methodology to calculate the circular material use rate is reliable, but it is dominated by minerals and
fossil fuels and does not capture qualitative aspects of circular material use and related environmental
impacts. Outlook information is lacking, so the assessment relies primarily on expert judgement.
related to plastic bottles. At the same 13.4 t/capita in 2017). However, much of
BOX 9.1 time, technological developments have this decline was caused by the financial
Renewable energy and critical raw made recycling more effective and can crisis of 2008 and the resulting drop in
materials
be expected to continue doing so. construction activities, accompanied by
a shift in the economy towards a higher
W ind and photovoltaic energy

technologies rely on a variety of
materials. Six of these materials, namely
In the future, the extent to which
demand for materials can be met with
recycled materials depends both on
share of services (Eurostat, 2019f). Prior
to the crisis (the period between 2000
and 2007), material consumption in
neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, developments in materials demand and the EU-28 actually increased steadily
indium, gallium and silicon metal, are on the generation and management of (Figure 9.3), only to drop by 17 %
identified as critical materials and thus waste. The high degree of uncertainty between 2007 and 2017 for total
their supply is at a high risk (EC, 2017b). in these two aspects means an even DMC, and by 28 % for non-metallic
higher uncertainty regarding future minerals. Provisional data for 2018
Europe’s demand for these and trends in circular material use. indicate again an increase for total DMC
other critical materials is expected Nonetheless, the increased policy and (Eurostat, 2019g).
to increase in the future, depending research focus on the circular economy
on the deployment rates of wind and is likely to foster a more circular use of An increasing share of the resource
photovoltaic technologies as well as materials in the future. input to the EU-28 economy comes
developments in the technologies. from abroad (23 % in 2017). Reliance on
If supply of these materials is expected imports is particularly high for metals
to be low, wind and photovoltaic power 9.3.2 and fossil fuels; for the latter category,
may not grow as fast as expected. Material resource efficiency
Nonetheless, the consequences of ►See Table 9.3
a demand/supply imbalance can be
mitigated by incentivising actions that Europe continues to use a large
23 %
support resource efficiency, recycling and amount of material resources, as
substitution of these critical materials measured by domestic material
with other, non-critical, materials. consumption (DMC). Total resource
For instance, rare Earth elements are use in the EU‑28 decreased by 9 %
no longer used in some new generation between 2000 and 2017, from 7.6 billion of the EU’s resource inputs in
wind turbines (EC, 2018h). ■ tonnes DMC to 6.8 billion tonnes (and 2017 came from abroad.
from 15.5 tonnes/capita in 2000 to

PART 2
FIGURE 9.4 Country comparison — resource productivity in Europe
Serbia
Bulgaria
Romania
North Macedonia
Estonia
Latvia
Poland
Lithuania
Turkey
Hungary
Finland
Czechia
Slovakia
Portugal
Cyprus
Croatia
Slovenia
Greece
Malta
Austria
Sweden
Denmark
EU-28
Germany
Norway
Ireland
Belgium
Spain
France
Italy
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Switzerland
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Euro (chain-linked volumes 2010)/kg DMC

2000 2008 2017
Note: For Turkey, 2016 substituted for 2017 data. For Serbia, 2001 substituted for 2000 data. 2017 data include estimates and provisional
data.
Source: Eurostat (2019m).

PART 2
TABLE 9.3 Summary assessment — material resource efficiency
Past trends Material consumption in the EU-28 declined during the last decade, and resource efficiency improved.
(10-15 years) The economic recession contributed to this trend, along with decreasing use of fossil fuels and the
changing structure of the economy.
Outlook to 2030 Most projections and/or scenarios envisage the use of materials increasing globally, and to a lesser extent in
the EU, while resource efficiency is projected to increase. Recent policies on the circular economy as well as on
climate change mitigation can be expected to contribute to improve resource efficiency.
2020 Europe is on track to meet the Seventh Environment Action Programme objective of improving resource
 efficiency by 2020. However, policy objectives are non-binding and without measurable targets or a clear
threshold to indicate when objectives have been achieved.
Robustness Eurostat has compiled a long, reliable time series of data on material flows and resource productivity for more
than 30 European countries. However, material flow-based indicators do not capture important issues such
as impacts of resource use, or environmental burdens related to extraction of imported resources, which can
be significant. Trends shown by material flow-based indicators are also heavily influenced by the high share
of largely inert construction materials. Outlook information for Europe is sparse, thus the outlook assessment
relies partly on expert judgement.
the share of imports is increasing influenced by countries’ differing

continuously (Eurostat, 2019g). economic structures, including the
This results in some shifting of the highly relevant mining sector in Bulgaria,
environmental burden to countries Romania, Estonia and Poland (Eurostat,
outside the EU, whereby pressures 2019i). Within the latter group, the
related to the extraction of resources
Resource efficiency in the EU is improvement in resource efficiency has
occur in the producing country and not expected to improve, albeit with been limited, which means that the gap
where those resources are actually used an increase in material use. between these countries and the most
(Chapters 1 and 16). resource-efficient countries is increasing
(Eurostat, 2019m).
Resource productivity — the ratio
between gross domestic product Some of the countries with the highest
(GDP) and DMC — in the EU as a of 143 % in Ireland and 119 % in Spain resource efficiency also have a high
whole increased by 40 % between to a decline of 18 % in Romania. share of imports in their material
2000 and 2017. However, as shown in input. Replacing domestically extracted
Figure 9.4, there are large differences Notably, the same countries resources with imports may result in an
between individual countries, both (Switzerland, Netherlands, United ‘artificial’ increase in importing countries’
in absolute terms and in trends over Kingdom, Luxembourg and Italy) have resource productivity. To highlight this,
time. For example, within the EU, remained at the top of the resource Eurostat has developed the raw material
resource productivity varies by a productivity rankings in Europe, with consumption indicator, available for
factor of 14 between the Netherlands another group of countries consistently the EU-28 as a bloc. In 2016, the EU’s
and Bulgaria. The change in resource remaining at the bottom (Bulgaria, raw material consumption per capita
productivity in the period between Romania, Estonia, Poland and Lithuania). was about 14.2 tonnes, compared with
2000 and 2017 varied from an increase These differences are strongly 13.4 tonnes of DMC (and largely followed

PART 2
FIGURE 9.5 Trends in waste generation (excluding major mineral wastes), economic development and
population, EEA-33
Index (2016 = 100)

102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP Average population Waste generation (excluding major mineral wastes)

Primary waste generation (excluding major mineral wastes)
Note: Country coverage: EU-28, Iceland, Norway. Waste data for 2011, 2013 and 2015 are interpolated.
Source: EEA, based on data from Eurostat (Eurostat, 2019e, 2019d, 2019l).
the same trend as DMC) (Eurostat, resource efficiency is projected to

2019g, 2019h). increase (IRP, 2019; OECD, 2019).
Closing material loops and increasing
On a positive note, there has been a recovery and recycling of materials
clear, long-term decrease in the use of are necessary steps to decrease our
fossil fuels (down by 19 % between 2000
Waste (excluding major reliance on imports and to reduce
and 2017), mainly due to an increasing mineral wastes) generation environmental pressures. However,
shift to energy from renewable sources increased slightly to 1.8 tonnes there are concerns that continuously
and overall improvements in energy growing demand will increasingly lead
per person in 2016.
efficiency. This positive outlook is to resource extraction in new areas with
expected to continue in the light of potentially high environmental risks,
policy focus on energy efficiency and such as the Arctic or the deep sea.
decarbonisation (Chapter 7). Meanwhile,
the demand for biomass for energy by macroeconomic conditions and the
use is expected to increase in most investment climate. 9.3.3
decarbonisation scenarios (EC, 2018e) Waste generation
and might increase as well as a Globally, most projections indicate ►See Table 9.4
substitute for non-renewable materials continued growth in the extraction
in the framework of Europe’s move and use of resources — a key driver The amount of total waste (excluding
towards a bioeconomy (EC, 2018b). of global environmental change major mineral wastes) has increased in
(Chapter 1), with the highest growth the 33 EEA member countries (EEA‑33)
The outlook for the other two categories expected in developing countries. since 2010 alongside GDP (Figure 9.5).
(i.e. non-metallic minerals and metals) is Material use is still expected to grow This comprises both primary and
difficult to assess, as it is largely driven in EU Member States as well, while secondary waste such as residues from

PART 2
TABLE 9.4 Summary assessment — waste generation
Past trends Generation of waste (primary waste excluding major mineral wastes) has stayed rather stable, and it is
(10-15 years) partially decoupled from economic development and population growth.
Outlook to 2030 While outlook information is sparse, generation of some waste types is projected to increase slightly. The
renewed policy focus on waste prevention measures can be expected to counter growth in waste generation,
but a lack of clear targets as well as many other factors influencing waste generation makes their effects
uncertain.
2020 Prospects for meeting the Seventh Environment Action Programme objective to reduce waste generation
are mixed. Recent data show an increase, along with growth in GDP. While waste prevention programmes
 are expected to reduce the amount of waste generated, many measures are rather weak and their overall
effectiveness has not been evaluated so far on a European level.
Robustness Total waste excluding major mineral wastes was selected to show trends in waste generation, because the
uncertainty for mineral waste is rather high and because it covers a broad range of waste types. The time
series is rather short, as earlier data (2004-2008) are excluded as they are influenced by data consolidation.
Outlook information is very limited and is only available for some smaller waste streams; therefore, outlook
and prospects of meeting the policy objectives are only assessed qualitatively and mainly rely on expert
judgement.
the EU-28 but has been increasing again increase along with expected changes in
Europe is increasingly since 2013 (Eurostat, 2019j). Many factors waste management.
influence waste generation, including
moving towards more recycling
economic development, incomes
but progress is slow. and prices, structural changes in the 9.3.4
economy, consumption and fashion Waste management
trends and technological developments, ►See Table 9.5
as well as policies on waste prevention
and resource efficiency. These factors Waste management in the EU-28
vary strongly by waste type. is improving but rather slowly. In
waste sorting and incineration (about 2016, 53.7 % of total waste, excluding
17 % of total waste). The observed Outlook information for waste generation major mineral wastes, was recycled,
increase is mainly driven by secondary is very sparse and limited to a few waste 23.5 % disposed in landfill and 20.5 %
waste resulting from an increase in types. For example, the generation of incinerated; backfilling and other disposal
waste incineration and waste sorting municipal waste in the EU-28 is projected accounted for the remainder. Although
operations. Meanwhile, developments in to increase by about 2 % over the period the waste hierarchy gives priority to
primary waste have been more stable. 2015-2035 (ETC/WMGE, 2018). End‑of‑life recycling over incineration, shares of
Waste (excluding major mineral wastes) vehicles are expected to increase both recycling and incineration have
generated per inhabitant increased slightly until 2020 (Peck et al., 2017). increased by 2 percentage points each
slightly to 1.8 tonnes per person in Waste electric and electronic equipment since 2010, and landfilling has dropped
2016. This average masks large country (WEEE) and waste batteries have been by 4 percentage points (Eurostat, 2019o).
differences, ranging from less than 1 to increasing continuously since 1995 and These trends are likely to be influenced
more than 3 tonnes per person (Eurostat, 2006, respectively, and that is expected to by the many waste targets and
2019e), partly reflecting the different continue until 2020 (Huisman et al., 2016). requirements, including mandatory
structures of countries’ economies. WEEE generation in the Western Balkans separate collection (Section 9.2).
The generation of municipal waste, is estimated to grow by one third by 2030
representing about 10 % of total waste, (Hogg et al., 2017). Waste incineration Nearly all countries have increased their
decreased between 2007 and 2013 in residues and sorting residues are likely to shares of municipal waste recycled since

PART 2
FIGURE 9.6 Country comparison — recycling rates of municipal waste, EEA-33, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
and Serbia
Recycling rates of municipal waste (%)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ov y
N Au ia
he ria
Sw lgi s
um
m nd
th rg
a
Sw aly
EU n
te en 8
ng k
Fr m
Ire ce
Fi nd
N nd
Cz ay
H chia
Bu ary
Sp d
Ic n
Sl nd
Es ia
Po nia
Cr gal
La a
G ia
Cy ce
m s
Tu ia
M y
S a
go a
na
Po ia
Be nd
Ro u
Sl an
e
Ki ar
ni
ti
i
2
e
n
ai
en
ak
tv
an
er erb
al
do
Li ou
an
e
w
rk
ar
pr
-
oa
vi
ed
et st
xe la
la
la
a
It
u
ua
to
g
d m
re
m
rla
nl
el
or
ov
e
rt
un
Lu tzer
lg
b
er
ze
G
D
i
H
ni
d
an
U
ia
sn
2004 2017
Bo
Notes: The recycling rate is calculated as the percentage of municipal waste generated that is recycled, composted and anaerobically digested,
and it might also include preparing for reuse. Changes in reporting methodology mean that 2017 data are not fully comparable with
2004 data for Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Italy, Norway, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
2005 data were used instead of 2004 data for Poland because of changes in methodology. On account of data availability, instead of
2004 data, 2003 data were used for Iceland, 2007 data for Croatia, 2008 data for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 2006 data for Serbia;
and instead of 2017 data, 2016 data were used for Iceland and Ireland. 2017 data for Cyprus, Germany, France, Luxembourg, Poland,
Slovenia, Switzerland, Spain and Turkey include estimates. The EU-28 data for 2004 are calculated with 2007 data for Croatia.
Sources: EEA, based on Eurostat (2019j) and data from the Czech Ministry of the Environment for Czechia.

PART 2
FIGURE 9.7 Progress towards selected waste management targets, EEA-33
Municipal waste landfill rate and target Municipal waste recycling rate and targets
(%) (%)
2030
max
2020*
2025
2030
2035
2011 2011
2017 2017
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2020*: Different methods of calculation allowed. The figure shows only one.
Plastic packaging waste recycling rate and targets Packaging waste recycling rate and targets
(%) (%)
2025
2030
2008
2030
2008
2025
2011 2011
2016 2016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
WEEE collection rate and targets WEEE recycling and reuse rate and targets
(% of amount put on market in 3 preceding years) (%) (2011: % of treated WEEE; 2016: % of collected WEEE)
2016
2016
2019
2006
2011 2011
2016 2016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
End-of-life vehicles recycling and reuse rate and targets Portable batteries collection rate and targets
(% of generated amounts) (% of amount put on market in current and 2 preceding years)
2012
2016
2015
2006
2011 2012
2016 2017
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Targets
Notes: The boxes show the upper and lower quartiles for all countries, the line in the box shows the median and the dots show countries.
For municipal waste, the calculation methods for compliance with the targets differ from the data shown in the figure. Derogation
periods apply for several countries for some of the targets. Municipal waste and packaging waste: recycling rates calculated as shares
of generated waste. In some cases, WEEE collection rates and packaging recycling rates are overestimated because the amounts put
on the market are underreported (Eurostat, 2017). Gap-filling of data was applied in some cases to increase the comparability of the
trends across data years. Country coverage: EEA-33 (excluding Switzerland and Turkey) for packaging waste, batteries, WEEE and
end‑of-life vehicles, and EEA-33 for municipal waste.
Sources: EEA based on Eurostat (2019c, 2019j, 2019k, 2019n, 2019p). Targets: relevant EU waste directives (EU, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2012,
2018b, 2018a, 2018c).

PART 2
TABLE 9.5 Summary assessment — waste management
Past trends Management of total waste (excluding major mineral wastes) as well as of several specific waste streams
(10-15 years) moves slowly towards recycling and away from landfill, but large differences between countries persist.
Substandard and illegal practices are still of concern.
Outlook to 2030 Waste management is expected to improve further, driven by existing and new waste management targets
and new requirements introduced in the recently revised waste legislation. However, strong implementation
efforts are required. The quality aspects of recycled materials, including substances of concern, need more
attention.
2020 On average, EU Member States are progressing towards the binding waste management targets, but several
 countries are at risk of missing the targets unless efforts are considerably intensified.
Robustness Information on waste management is rather robust, but earlier data are still influenced by data consolidation
issues, and shortcomings in reporting are documented for some countries. Information on illegal waste
activities is extremely limited. Outlook information exists only for a few selected waste streams; therefore,
the assessment of outlooks and prospects of meeting policy targets/objectives is largely based on expert
judgement.
2004, but differences among countries waste recycling. Full implementation

are still high (Figure 9.6). of the targets under the new EU
waste legislation adopted in 2018 is
Across European countries, key expected to result in a 26 percentage
measures that aim to increase recycling point increase by 2035 (ETC/WMGE,
have included bans or restrictions While on average, countries 2019). Outlook information for the
on landfilling, mandatory separate are progressing towards EU management of most other waste
collection; landfill and incineration taxes, types is not available. Key influencing
waste management targets,
and waste collection fees designed to factors include prices for virgin materials
incentivise separate collection (such as several countries are at risk and energy (competing with recycled
pay-as-you-throw schemes) (EEA, 2016b). of not meeting them. materials and energy from waste),
In particular, the targets to reduce developments in sorting and recycling
landfilling of biodegradable municipal technologies and the composition
waste have triggered investments in and recyclability of new products and
incineration and pre-treatment of mixed novel materials, as well as prices and
waste such as mechanical‑biological their municipal waste (ETC/WMGE, 2019), capacities for different types of waste
treatment. While these technologies while Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, treatment, and waste and broader
have lower environmental pressures Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, circular economy policies.
than landfill, high treatment capacities Sweden and Switzerland have dedicated
might discourage separate collection incineration capacities to incinerate On average, countries are moving closer
and waste prevention and can more than 50 % of their municipal waste to the EU’s specific waste management
create lock-ins to less favourable (ETC/WMGE, 2017). targets (Figure 9.7). However, several
waste management options. Latvia, countries are still lagging behind targets
Lithuania, Poland and Spain have Policies adopted before 2018 are (EC, 2018g), and in some countries
mechanical‑biological treatment expected to deliver an increase of improper waste management still
capacities to treat more than 50 % of only 6 percentage points in municipal exists (Box 9.2).

PART 2
© Brendan Killeen

PART 2
BOX 9.2
Substandard and illegal waste activities pose risks to human health and the environment
I mproper waste management, such

as inefficient collection services,
dumping of waste in dumpsites, illegal
also lacks treatment capacity for
hazardous waste, and stockpiled
hazardous wastes are often not stored
profits. The Countering WEEE Illegal
Trade project (Huisman et al., 2015)
found that, in 2012, 4.65 million tonnes
waste disposal activities and littering, appropriately (Hogg et al., 2017). of electronic waste were not properly
still exist in Europe, posing risks to managed or illegally traded within
human health and the environment, According to a report by EnviCrimeNet the EU, and that only 35 % of all such
including soil pollution. In the period and Europol (2015), the waste industry waste reached the official collection
2015-2018, the European Commission is one of the biggest businesses and treatment system. This leads to
has referred Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, targeted by criminal groups, as it potential hazards for human health and
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain offers potentially higher profits than the environment but also represents a
to the European Court of Justice for those from illegal drugs but much loss of valuable materials.
breaching the requirements of the lower sanctions and risks of detection.
EU Landfill Directive (EC, 2019b). The report warns that this situation Littering and dumping of waste on both
Many municipalities in the Western ‘enables organised crime groups to land and sea, as well as improper waste
Balkan countries and Turkey use further infiltrate the legal economy. management systems are important
substandard dumps to dispose of Environmental crimes undermine the sources of marine litter, affecting marine
waste (ETC/WMGE, 2016; Hogg et al., rule of law and damage the reputation ecosystems (Chapter 6). The recently
2017), and Serbia operates one of of the EU and its [Member States].’ adopted EU Directives on single-use
the world’s 50 biggest still active In particular, the illegal disposal of plastics (EU, 2019b) and port reception
dumpsites (D-Waste Environmental asbestos and the illegal export of WEEE facilities (EU, 2019a) aim to prevent
Consultants Ltd., 2014). The region and end-of-life vehicles offer high waste becoming marine litter. ■
9.4 the waste hierarchy for a range of

Responses and prospects of products/materials (Section 9.2).
meeting agreed targets and
objectives
9.4.1
Both resource use and waste generation EU waste policies drive Relevance, effectiveness and
are closely linked to Europe’s patterns recycling but the outlook for coherence of current policies
of production and consumption
(Chapter 16). In the 2015 circular
limiting waste generation is The circular economy policy objectives
economy action plan (EC, 2015), the uncertain. are still rather new and it is therefore
European Commission identified a wide premature to assess their effects.
variety of initiatives to be implemented However, one notable trend is that
across the value chain. A larger several countries and regions/devolved
number of steps have already been administrations have already adopted
taken to implement these initiatives are no concrete targets for resource strategies, action plans or roadmaps
(EC, 2019c). Strategic objectives use, resource efficiency and waste for developing the circular economy
of the 7th EAP include creating ‘a prevention in the EU legislation, (Box 9.3). As of spring 2019, these
resource efficient, competitive, green and only a handful of countries include Belgium (and in addition
low-carbon economy’, reducing the have adopted national targets Flanders and Brussels Capital Region),
generation of waste both in absolute for resource efficiency or waste Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, the
terms and per capita and improving prevention. Meanwhile, many specific Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and
waste management. However, there waste management targets specify Scotland in the United Kingdom. Poland

PART 2
and Spain are on the verge of adopting security of supply of raw materials,
BOX 9.3 such strategies or action plans, whereas and in particular critical raw materials,
National experience of circular several countries are developing them. started to increase the attention given to
economy policies
Others embed the circular economy in secondary raw materials. There is also
A recent EEA review of experience and

lessons learned from developing
circular economy policies (EEA,
climate policy or combinations of waste
and resource policies, e.g. England
in the United Kingdom and Wallonia
growing emphasis on creating synergies
with the low-carbon economy.
forthcoming) shows some common in Belgium (EEA, forthcoming). The At the other end of the material resource
threads in the frontrunner countries. European Commission’s Environmental use chain, generation of waste has
The development of circular economy Implementation Review (EC, 2019a) stabilised at a high level (Section 9.3.3).
policies needs to involve a broad range notes that several EU Member States While no binding EU targets exist,
of stakeholders. In several countries, ‘should better implement circular EU Member States had to adopt waste
the government increasingly plays the economy principles’ and ‘further prevention programmes according to
role of a facilitator and moderator in incentivise resource efficiency the Waste Framework Directive by 2013,
this process, not just a regulator and measures’. and all EU Member States, as well as
enforcer. A number of actions rely on Iceland, Norway and Turkey, have such
voluntary approaches, underpinned Significant increases in resource programmes (EEA, 2019). Recently, the
by a clear business case. Several efficiency that have occurred since revised Waste Framework Directive
governments estimated and promoted 2007/2008 have been in part due to the strengthened the requirements on waste
the benefits for their country’s economy way the economic crisis affected most prevention and obliges Member States
arising from implementing the circular economies and the resulting structural to evaluate waste prevention measures.
economy. Finally, some apply a change (e.g. the sharp decline in In addition, it introduces a reporting
broad definition of ‘resources’ to be construction). Furthermore, the picture obligation for reuse and for food waste
used in closed cycles: raw materials, is also affected by the nature of available for the first time and mandates the
water, space, food and excavated soil indicators, which use a very aggregated European Commission to review the
(e.g. Flanders in Belgium).■ measure of resource consumption. data reported with a view to setting
waste prevention targets. Nevertheless,
It is not possible to conclusively evaluate waste prevention remains a challenge
the effect of policies for material use in all EU Member States (EC, 2017a,
and resource efficiency, partly because 2019a).
policy objectives are formulated rather
vaguely and in part due to the variety of Meanwhile, most waste prevention
driving factors at play (e.g. geography, programmes started operating around
climate, structure of the economy, 2013 or later, so the available data
energy mix, consumption patterns). may not yet reflect the full effects of
Trends vary strongly across individual implementation. Knowledge on the
countries, driven by a complicated effects of specific waste prevention
mix of underlying drivers. The main measures is still limited and requires
driver determining trends in resource disentangling policy effects from
use in recent years seems to be economic and other factors. Such
macroeconomic changes. Furthermore, analysis is not available on a
given such a wide variety of factors at European level so far. The majority of
play it is difficult to demonstrate the policy instruments in the programmes
causality of policy interventions. concern information and awareness
raising, which are generally considered
However, the wave of policy measures weak policy instruments.
stipulated in the 2015 circular economy
action plan and follow-up measures However, the overall economic policy
(Section 9.2) can be expected to goal of continued economic growth
improve resource efficiency in the may conflict with the objective of waste
future. Moreover, policies on ensuring prevention unless strong measures are

PART 2
taken, for example moving towards employment has increased by 79 %

less waste-intensive business models since the year 2000. However, growth
and extending the lifetime of products. in employment in the sector slowed
This illustrates that waste generation is considerably after 2011 (Eurostat,
unlikely to be strongly reduced through 2019b).
waste policies alone. It needs to be Waste and resource
addressed in a systemic way along management provided about Reaping the full potential benefits of
the value chain, by fundamentally enhancing resource efficiency and the
3 million jobs in the EU in 2016.
changing patterns of production and use of waste as resources will require
consumption. For example, preventing more attention to overcome a number
food waste needs to address the drivers of barriers, as illustrated in Section 9.3.1.
of food waste in the whole food system More focus is needed on the longevity
(ECA, 2016; Ciccarese and Vulcano, 2017) of products, the recyclability and uptake
(Chapter 16). and 12), mainly due to the Landfill of recycled materials, preventing
Directive’s technical requirements and contamination with substances of
Waste management trends, as shown the diversion of waste from landfill. concern, and improved waste collection
in Section 9.3.4, indicate that European However, replacing virgin materials and treatment efficiencies. Such barriers
waste management is moving towards with recycled ones in most cases leads are often of a systemic nature and
more recycling, albeit very slowly. This to environmental benefits beyond the need action across policy domains. For
development is certainly driven by EU waste sector itself (OECD, 2019). For example, internalising environmental
waste policies, especially the binding example, taking a life cycle approach, impacts in the prices of materials,
targets. However, waste management municipal waste management has energy and products would create fairer
targets relate to the weight of wastes, already avoided more greenhouse gas markets for these circular solutions.
whereas it is their quality that emissions than it generated directly, Plastics are a good example to illustrate
determines their value as secondary raw and it is estimated that these avoided these aspects (EC, 2018a). Some
materials in the circular economy. emissions (i.e. net environmental shortcomings in EU waste policies are
benefits) will increase steadily in the addressed in the revised waste directives
The prospects of meeting specific waste period 2015-2035 if the new targets are adopted in 2018, but more coherence is
management targets are mixed across achieved (ETC/WMGE, 2019). needed especially between legislation
Europe. Fourteen EU Member States are on waste, products and chemicals (EC,
at risk of missing the 2020 50 % recycling Avoiding generating waste and 2018d).
target for certain waste fractions from decreasing the demand for virgin
households, set in the 2008 Waste materials usually delivers higher There is still a long way to go to turn
Framework Directive (EC, 2018g; environmental benefits than other Europe into a truly ‘circular economy
ETC/WMGE, 2018). Meeting the new options. It reduces both the need where the value of products, materials
targets on recycling and landfilling of to treat the resulting waste and the and resources is maintained in the
municipal waste in combination with pressures from extracting virgin economy for as long as possible’
more stringent calculation methods for resources and producing the products (EC, 2015). The circular economy action
compliance, as well as the collection in the first place. For example, the plan of 2015 and its related initiatives,
targets for batteries and WEEE, will production step is responsible for about and several national circular economy
require considerable additional efforts 73-96 % of greenhouse gas emissions, strategies are positive steps in this
by most countries (Figure 9.7). acidification and eutrophication related direction. In order to reap the highest
to food waste in Europe, while food benefits most efficiently, focusing
processing, distribution, consumption on areas of high resource use, high
9.4.2 and food waste disposal, including resource value and high environmental
Benefits of moving towards a circular composting, together account for the impact seems most appropriate.
economy rest (Scherhaufer et al., 2018). Nonetheless, ‘making the circular
economy a reality will however require
Improving waste management The waste management and resource long-term involvement at all levels, from
contributed to mitigating the EU’s management sectors provided about Member States, regions and cities, to
greenhouse gas emissions (Chapters 7 3 million jobs in the EU in 2016 and businesses and citizens’ (EC, 2017c).

10.
Chemical
pollution
2
© Antonio Atanasio Rincón, Sustainably Yours/EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• European chemical policies have • Current policies mainly address
contributed to improved air and single chemicals and often in separate
surface water quality and reduced policy domains. A shift to a more
related harm to the environment and integrated approach for chemicals
people’s health. Nevertheless, on‑going governance that better fosters
exposure to chemical pollution innovation within Europe is needed.
continues to negatively affect human The current single substance approach
health and the environment. Latent is not fit for assessing and managing
and irreversible damage to human the risks of the large number of
health is of particular concern. chemicals on the European market in
the immediate future. A shift towards
• The projected increase in chemical tackling chemical groups rather than
production and continued emissions single substances offers opportunities
of persistent and hazardous chemicals to accelerate risk management.
suggests that the total chemical burden
on health and the environment is • A transition to chemicals and
unlikely to decrease. products that are safe by design, as
well as using less hazardous chemicals
• The large variety of chemicals used along the entire life cycle of products,
in Europe makes it impossible to carry offers significant opportunities to
out robust risk assessments for each reduce chemical pollution and improve
individual chemical and monitor their circularity and innovation in Europe’s
presence in environmental media economy.
and in people. Significant knowledge
gaps remain regarding the impacts
of chemicals on health and the
environment.

objectives/targets
Emissions of chemicals Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

picture developments dominate
Chemical pollution and impacts Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

on ecosystems picture developments dominate
Chemical pollution and risks to human Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

health and well-being picture developments dominate
explained in Section 10.3, Key trends and outlooks (Tables 10.2, 10.3 and 10.4).
4 par A
PART 2
10.
Chemical pollution
10.1 sources (Figure 10.1). Chemicals

Scope of the theme produced or used in one place may also
spread regionally and globally. While
Society benefits from using chemicals chemical accidents at manufacturing
while aiming to minimise risks to facilities can lead to loss of life and
the environment and human health. Exposure to chemical pollution severe pollution locally, they are outside
Chemicals are widely used in everyday the scope of this report. However, data
negatively impacts human
life and many economic sectors are are available in the eMARS database
dependent on chemicals, such as
health and the environment. (JRC, 2018).
agriculture, manufacturing of consumer
products, infrastructure and technology, Risk assessment is a tool used to inform
and energy. Given this widespread and decision-making. It is based on data
diverse use (Bernhardt et al., 2017; on the chemical’s hazard and level of
Landrigan et al., 2017; Gross and exposure, which combine to provide a
Birnbaum, 2017), this chapter focuses measure of the risk of causing effects
mainly on synthetic chemicals, such and the responses that have been put (Risk = Hazard × Exposure). Hazards
as industrial chemicals, pesticides, in place to deal with key challenges. vary by type and the timescale in which
biocides and chemicals in products, Given the cross-cutting nature of they manifest. An example of an acute
and particularly on the most hazardous chemicals, this chapter complements hazard is pesticide poisoning, whereas
substances or those that accumulate the assessment of pollutants from chronic hazards may develop over time
in humans and the environment. the perspective of specific media and result in diseases such as cancer.
It excludes fertilisers and air pollutants (Chapters 4, 5, 6 and 8) and from the The toxicity of hazardous substances
from combustion processes, which perspective of sources of pollution depends on both the chemical and the
are addressed in other chapters in (Chapters 12 and 13). vulnerability of humans or ecosystems
this report. when exposed. For example, if an
Emissions of chemical pollutants occur organism is exposed during fetal
An overview of the ‘chemical universe’ across various stages of the chemical development, or exposed to multiple
and emissions is presented, along with or product’s life cycle and exposure to stresses, this can increase vulnerability,
an assessment of how chemicals impact chemicals may occur through many meaning that the chemical is hazardous
on human health and the environment routes, including point and diffuse even at low doses.
SOER 2020/Chemical pollution 233

PART 2
FIGURE 10.1 Point and diffuse sources of emissions and the exposure routes for humans and the environment
20
:20
Ecosphere
Technosphere
Housesphere
Source: EEA.
234 SOER 2020/Chemical pollution

PART 2
BOX 10.1 Definitions of key terms
P ersistent chemicals have high

intrinsic molecular stability
and do not easily degrade in the
chemicals occurs in fatty tissues
(e.g. PCBs and dioxins), but chemicals
may also accumulate in the blood and
immunotoxic substances, whereas lead,
organomercury and organophosphate
pesticides are examples of neurotoxic
environment or in living organisms or organs (e.g. PFAS). chemicals.
during technical processing. Persistent
organic pollutants (POPs) is a specific Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) Substances of very high concern
subcategory, with polychlorinated interfere with the development or the (SVHC) is a term used in the EU
biphenyls (PCBs), per‑ and functioning of the hormonal system chemicals regulation REACH (registration,
polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) such as the female sex hormones evaluation, authorisation and restriction
and organomercury being examples. (oestrogens), male sex hormones of chemicals), for single or groups
(testosterone) or thyroid hormones. of chemicals that are subject to
Mobile chemicals are either very water Examples include bisphenol A (BPA) authorisation. EU legislation requires
soluble or very volatile making them and phthalates (e.g. di-(2-ethylexyl) that SVHCs should be substituted with
difficult to remove with abatement and phthalate, DEHP). less harmful alternatives and the REACH
remediation technologies. Regulation provides for risk management
Developmentally toxic chemicals processes to achieve this aim. The SVHC
Accumulation occurs in the damage the development and future criteria target substances that have one
environment or in humans if the rate functioning of the endocrine (hormonal) or more of the following properties:
of input exceeds the rate of removal. system, the immune system or the carcinogenic; mutagenic; toxic for
neurological system (affecting brain reproduction; persistent, bioaccumulative
Bioaccumulation occurs when chemicals development). Critical windows and toxic (PBT); very persistent and very
accumulate in living organisms, typically of exposure are associated with bioaccumulative (vPvB) or giving rise to
due to a long-term intake of food or different stages of the development equivalent levels of concern. Examples
water contaminated with chemicals that of an organism. Organotins (e.g. of the substances causing equivalent
are not efficiently removed from the tributyltin, TBT) and perfluorooctane concern include neurotoxic and
organism. Accumulation of fat‑soluble sulfonate (PFOS) are examples of endocrine-disrupting chemicals. ■
Overall risks result from the combined 10.2

exposure to single chemicals released Policy landscape Risk assessments are not
from various sources but also from possible for every chemical
mixtures of chemicals. High exposure The Seventh Environment Action
used in Europe due
typically happens as a result of repeated Programme (7th EAP) states that Europe
exposures and when chemicals aims to achieve, by 2020, the objective to the large variety of
accumulate in the environment or in that chemicals are produced and used chemicals that exist.
people. Accumulation occurs when in ways that lead to the minimisation
the input of chemicals is greater than of significant adverse effects on human
the rate at which they are degraded or health and the environment (EU, 2013).
excreted from living organisms. This may Policies to deliver this objective include
occur with chemicals produced at high more than 40 pieces of legislation
volume that are continuously released including horizontal legislation, and
into the environment at a rate that legislation covering specific chemical
exceeds the removal rate, as well as with products, consumer products, wastes,
lower volumes of persistent chemicals emissions to the environment and
(see Box 10.1 for definitions). environmental quality standards.

PART 2
Table 10.1 presents an overview of of chemicals that are hazardous and of

selected relevant policy targets and global concern due to the transboundary
objectives. The 7th EAP also established nature of their transport and impacts,
a mandate for the European Commission such as persistent organic pollutants
(Directorate-General for Environment) to (POPs). Typically, policies regulate use,
develop ‘by 2018 a Union strategy for a European chemical policies emissions or occurrences of single
non‑toxic environment that is conducive have contributed to improved substances. Increasingly authorities
to innovation and the development seek to manage the risks of substances
air and surface water quality.
of sustainable substitutes including as groups when those substances
non‑chemical solutions’ (EU, 2013). share similarities in their chemical
characteristics (ECHA, 2018d).
REACH is the Regulation on registration,
evaluation, authorisation and restriction protection products, including pesticides In addition to policies at European level,
of chemicals (EU, 2006b) and is the (EU, 2009d), and pharmaceuticals (EU, several of the Sustainable Development
key piece of horizontal legislation 2001b). Furthermore, policies limit Goals (SDGs) (UN, 2015) address
that aims to protect human health some use and presence of hazardous the risks from chemicals. SDG 12 on
and the environment. The REACH chemicals in consumer products to sustainable consumption and production
Regulation obliges companies to provide ensure consumer safety and protect the patterns calls for the environmentally
information on the properties and environment from diffuse emissions, sound management of chemicals and
hazards of chemicals they manufacture including personal care products, waste throughout their life cycle. SDG 3
and market in the EU and to manage cosmetics, textiles, electronic equipment on ensuring healthy lives and promoting
the associated risks. The regulation also and toys (Amec Foster Wheeler well-being for all at all ages sets the goal
calls for the progressive substitution et al., 2017), as well as food contact of substantially reducing the number
of the most hazardous chemicals plastics (EU, 2011a), food (EU, 2002) and of deaths and illnesses from hazardous
when economically and functional drinking water (EU, 2001a, 2006a). chemicals. Finally, SDG 6 identifies
alternatives have been identified. This the need to minimise releases of
is done by restrictions on their uses, or Efforts to close material cycles under hazardous chemicals to water to achieve
by authorising the chemical uses for the action plan for the circular economy sustainable management of water and
defined purposes. The Classification, have implications for the chemical life sanitation for all. The SDGs’ objectives
Labelling and Packaging (CLP) Regulation cycle, with the potential for recycled on chemicals are supported at the global
(EU, 2008b) aims to protect human material flows to contain and even level by implementation of the Strategic
health and the environment by putting magnify legacy chemicals as well as approach to international chemicals
in place the rules for the classification, other hazardous chemicals that are management, a policy framework to
labelling and packaging of chemicals. In not restricted or authorised (EC, 2015). promote chemical safety (UNEP, 2006).
combination with the REACH Regulation, The circular economy, and its benefits
this ensures that information about of reducing pressures on resources,
the hazards of chemicals and mixtures nature and the climate, could therefore 10.3
of chemicals are communicated down be supported if clean and non-toxic Key trends and outlooks
the supply chain, alerting workers to material cycles were ensured. A 2018
the presence of a hazard and the need Commission communication sets out 10.3.1
for risk management (EU, 2009b). The options for addressing the interface The chemical universe
CLP legislation also protects the aquatic between chemical, product and waste
environment through classification of legislation (EC, 2018c). The chemical universe captures the
some types of chemical hazards in line wide range of chemical products in use
with international standards (Amec European policies also control emissions today: chemicals that are deliberately or
Foster Wheeler et al., 2017). of chemicals to the environment unintentionally emitted from agriculture,
and set maximum thresholds for the industrial processes and urban areas,
Regarding chemical products, the EU has presence of certain chemicals in air and and legacy chemicals that persist in the
directives and regulations in place (with in water bodies. Legislation addresses environment from previous emissions.
amendments) to restrict various uses, point source emissions from industrial Two aspects of this universe create
occurrences and emissions of chemicals. installations and from urban waste concern: the sheer volume of chemicals
Some examples include detergents water treatment plants (Chapter 12). in use and the potential combined
(EU, 2004a), biocides (EU, 2012), plant Legislation also addresses emissions toxicity of these diverse chemicals.

PART 2
Chemical pollution
Improve the protection of human health and the REACH Regulation (EU, 2006b) N/A Binding
environment through registration, evaluation, authorisation
and restriction of chemicals
Develop a strategy for a non-toxic environment 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2018 Non-binding
commitment
Risks for the environment and health associated with the use 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
of hazardous substances, including chemicals in products, commitment
are assessed and minimised
Policy response in place for endocrine disrupters, and for 7th EAP (EU, 2013), EC (2012) 2015 Non-binding
combination effects of mixtures of chemicals commitment
To prevent or, where that is not practicable, to reduce IED (EU, 2010) N/A Non-binding
emissions to air, water and land and to prevent the commitment
generation of waste in order to achieve a high level of
protection of the environment taken as a whole
Develop a strategy on pharmaceuticals in water 2000/60/EC and 2008/105/EC 2015/2017 Binding
The use of plant protection products does not have any 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
harmful effects on human health or unacceptable influence commitment
on the environment, and such products are used sustainably
Minimise the use/emissions of listed POPs, following addition EC 850/2004, EC 96/59, New facilities: 2 years, Binding
of a POP to the list CLRTAP (UNECE, 1979) existing facilities: 8 years
after entry into force
Priority hazardous substances under Directive 2008/105/EC WFD (2000/60/EU) N/A Binding
are eliminated from surface waters in accordance with the
WFD
Contaminants are not at a level giving rise to pollution effects MSFD (2008/56/EC) 2020 Binding
All relevant substances of very high concern, including 7th EAP (EU, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
substances with endocrine-disrupting properties, are placed commitment
on the REACH candidate list
Reduce cancers/deaths from workplace exposures to EU Roadmap on carcinogens N/A Non-binding

chemicals (EU‑OSHA, 2017a), 2009/104/EC commitment
Reduce mercury levels in the environment and human EU Mercury strategy (EC, 2005), N/A Non-binding
exposure and protect human health and the environment Minamata Convention on Mercury commitment
from anthropogenic emissions and releases of mercury and (Council of the European Union, 2013)
mercury compounds
Restriction of the use of certain hazardous substances in RoHS Directive (EU, 2011b) 2019 Binding
electrical and electronic equipment
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; CLRTAP, Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution; IED, Industrial
Emissions Directive; MSFD, Marine Strategy Framework Directive; POP, persistent organic pollutant; RoHS Directive, Directive on
restriction of hazardous substances; WFD, Water Framework Directive; N/A, non-applicable.

PART 2
Between 2000 and 2017, the production 209 million tonnes, were hazardous to
capacity of the global chemical industry Two aspects of the chemical health. The proportions of chemicals
increased from 1.2 to 2.3 billion tonnes hazardous to the environment and/or
(UNEP, 2019). In terms of diversity,
universe create concern: hazardous to health remained stable
22 600 chemical registrations were the sheer volume of chemicals from 2008 to 2017 (Eurostat, 2019).
registered under the REACH legislation in use and the potential
in August 2019. This number omits combined toxicity of these The consumption of industrial chemicals
chemicals on the market at volumes in the EU in 2017 was 304 million tonnes.
of below 1 tonne, as well as polymers,
diverse chemicals. Of these, 22 % were hazardous to the
and those already regulated under environment and 71 % were hazardous
existing regulation such as pesticides to health, similar proportions to those
and pharmaceuticals. The total number for chemical production. The proportion
of synthetic chemicals on the market has of consumed chemicals hazardous
been estimated at 100 000 substances being sufficiently regulated (ECHA, to the environment declined by 5 %
(Milieu Ltd et al., 2017) and 600 000 2019b). Another 10 000 substances from 2008 to 2017, with a decline of
substances can be searched in are considered to have their risks fairly 6 % for chemicals hazardous to health,
toxicological databases (DTU, 2019). well characterised, while limited risk suggesting a downward trend in the
There are also an unknown number of information is available for around overall hazard posed (Eurostat, 2019).
transformation products from chemicals 20 000 substances. The majority, However, the information available on
during their life cycles (Ng et al., 2011). around 70 000 substances have hardly chemical hazards is incomplete and
At the same time, the volume and any information on their hazards or the classification criteria under the
diversity of chemicals continues to exposures. While these may be present CLP Regulation do not effectively capture
increase (CEFIC, 2018). in small volumes, they contribute to certain health impacts, in particular
the overall chemical risk and a fuller long-term developmental toxicities
Thoroughly assessing how the chemical characterisation of hazards may be associated with endocrine disruption,
universe constitutes a risk to human warranted. Given the diversity of neurotoxicity and immunotoxicity, as
health and the environment requires substances, it is however unrealistic well as certain categories of chemicals
information on the toxic (hazardous) in terms of time and resources to hazardous to the environment, such
effects of each substance, its potency comprehensively test all chemicals to as persistent, bioaccumulative and
and the extent to which the environment identify their hazardous properties toxic (PBT) and very persistent, very
and people are exposed to each and to monitor for their presence in bioaccumulative (vPvB) substances.
chemical, whether as a single substance environmental media, in biota and in The approach is based on the hazard
or in mixtures. This in turn requires humans. This suggests that in addition to profile of individual substances and does
an understanding of how chemicals the existing tools, additional regulatory not account for the combined effects of
are used and altered throughout their and other means are required, to enable chemical mixtures. These issues imply
life cycles, how they end up in various effective management of the risks posed that the associated risk to human health
environmental media and how they by chemicals, regardless of their source. and the environment from chemical
combine in the environment. The main In addition, improved information on production and consumption is likely to
challenge in assessing the overall risk, volumes of specific chemicals could also be understated.
is that the majority of substances in enable modelling of exposures.
the chemical universe lack either a full Production and consumption data
hazard characterization and/or exposure To get a rough estimate of how chemical provide a weak proxy for exposure to
estimates across ecosystems and risks are evolving in Europe, trends chemicals for several reasons. Actual
in humans. in the production and consumption exposure is determined by emissions
of chemicals and changes in the during the chemical’s life cycle, including
Different approaches to registering, proportion of chemicals on the market use and waste phases and possible
assessing and monitoring chemicals that are classified as hazardous to the reuse, and not by the tonnage produced
create challenges in estimating how environment and/or human health can or consumed. Certain very hazardous
well chemical risks are assessed. As be evaluated. In the EU, 282 million chemicals are used in closed systems,
shown in Figure 10.2, it is estimated tonnes of industrial chemicals were reducing opportunities for exposure.
that robust information exists for produced in 2017. Of these, 28 %, or Data for industrial chemicals also
about 500 chemicals and by April 2019, 75 million tonnes, were hazardous exclude important chemical sectors,
ECHA considered 450 substances as to the environment and 75 %, or such as pharmaceuticals and pesticides,

PART 2
FIGURE 10.2 The unknown territory of chemical risks
RISKS
~ 100 000 chemicals
on the market
HAZARDS EXPOSURES
~ 500 chemicals
extensively characterised for
their hazards and exposures
~ 10 000 chemicals
fairly well characterised for
a subset of their hazards and exposures
~ 22 600 chemicals
with a use over ~ 20 000 chemicals
1 tonne per year with limited characterisation for
their hazards and exposures
~ 4 700 chemicals
with a use over ~ 70 000 chemicals
with poor characterisation for
100 tonnes per year their hazards and exposures
prioritised in
hazard characterisation
and evaluation
Note: The numbers in the figure do not include impurities, transformation products or structural variants (isomers) of chemicals placed on
the market. ~ 500 chemicals: Chemicals which are considered sufficiently regulated (ECHA, 2019b), typically legacy and well-known
chemicals characterised for most known hazards, which have limit values and are regularly are monitored by quantitative methods in
most media. ~ 10 000 chemicals: Chemicals on EU or national legislation lists which are characterised for some but not for all known
hazards, which have specific limit values, and are monitored quantitatively, but irregularly across time, media or space. ~ 20 000
chemicals: Chemicals with hazards characterised mainly by modelling, or where exposure data are based on qualitative screenings
done occasionally and in few media. ~ 70 000 chemicals: typically low volume chemicals for which usually no or very few hazards
characteristics are available and information on uses and exposure is scarce, not characterised or measured in very few media.
Sources: EEA based on Danish EPA (2019); EC (2009); ECHA (2019a, 2019b, 2019c); EFSA (2012); EU (2009a, 2009c, 2011a, 2015); Geiser (2015);
JRC (2016); Ng et al. (2011); OECD (2018); Sobek et al. (2016); UNEP (2018).

PART 2
in which there are significant emissions • Emissions to water of several

to the environment. In addition, trends groups of hazardous substances,
in the production and consumption including pesticides, metals and
of chemicals in Europe have been metalloids, organic substances and other
affected by the shift in manufacturing of determinants, voluntarily reported to
goods requiring chemical inputs, such Persistent emissions the EEA by member countries under
as textiles and electronics, to outside and expected growth the Water Information System for
the EU (CEFIC, 2018). Chemicals used Europe (WISE) SoE emissions dataflow
in chemical production make
in manufacturing outside Europe are (Chapter 4). The substances reported
imported in finished products and a reduction in the chemical vary for each country.
emissions along the product’s life cycle burden on health
occur in Europe. Emissions outside and the environment unlikely. • Emissions of 26 single and groups
Europe may also be transported long of substances to air reported under
distances, adding to the total burden of the CLRTAP (EEA, 2018c) covering
chemicals in the European environment. estimated volumes from several sources
Finally, any assessment of the chemical (Chapter 8).
burden on the environment must also
account for legacy chemicals already Chemical emissions to air There
present in the environment, held in old have been reductions in emissions to
products still in circulation or present in receiving media (e.g. the Convention air of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)
recycled materials. on Long-range Transboundary and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) — two
Air Pollutants, CLRTAP, and Water groups of POPs — as well as mercury,
Looking ahead, society’s reliance Framework Directive, 2000/60/EC) and with declines of 83 %, 96 % and 72 %,
on chemicals is projected to grow. specific types of chemicals (e.g. the respectively, in the period 1990-2017
In Europe, the consumption of POP Regulation, 850/2004/EC, which is and little improvement over the last
pharmaceuticals is projected to currently being revised). decade (EEA, 2019a). Emissions of
increase as a result of the ageing 23 chemicals from industrial installations
population (Moritz et al., 2017). Global reported to the E-PRTR with sufficient
chemical production is projected to Emission trends data coverage (not including heavy
triple between 2010 and 2050, mainly metals and pollutants formed during
outside Europe (OECD, 2012). European Very few chemicals are regularly combustion) decreased by between
chemical production is also projected monitored in flows of emissions to the 37 % and 93 % in the period 2007‑2016,
to increase up to 2030 (CEFIC, 2018). environment in Europe. The number of with the highest decreases in the
The projected increase in the production substances monitored and reported at first half of this period. Many of them
and consumption of chemicals and the EU level in various emission sources are are SVHCs that should be subject to
complexity of the chemical universe set out below. substitution where there are suitable
creates significant challenges for efforts alternatives. Emissions of toluene and
to reduce the risk to human health • Emissions of 91 single or groups hydrogen cyanide increased by 13‑22 %
and the environment from chemical of substances to water, air and soil (EEA, 2019c), while emissions of seven
pollution. from about 30 000 industrial facilities, heavy metals decreased by more
including waste water treatment plants, than 17 % (Chapter 12). Emissions of
are reported in the European Pollutant ozone‑depleting substances have been
10.3.2 Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) reduced as a result of partial substitution
Emissions of chemical pollutants (Chapter 12; EEA, 2019b). with hydrochlorofluorocarbons, which
to the environment are potent greenhouse gases — an
►See Table 10.2 • Emissions to water of 45 priority example of a regrettable substitution.
substances reported under the Water
Emissions of chemicals into the Framework Directive’s inventory of Chemical emissions to water
environment are governed by emissions, discharges and losses, Emissions of chlorinated substances
legislation addressing specific sources covering both diffuse and point from industrial installations and waste
(e.g. the Industrial Emissions Directive, emissions. Data on industrial emissions water treatment plants showed mixed
2010/75/EU, and Urban Waste Water are drawn from E-PRTR reporting, while trends, while emissions of heavy
Treatment Directive, 91/271/EEC), diffuse emissions are estimated. metals and other organic substances

PART 2
BOX 10.2 Emissions of persistent organic pollutants
P ersistent organic pollutants (POPs)

are persistent, bioaccumulative
and toxic. Certain POPs are targeted
these substances, and there has been
little progress in reducing emissions in
Croatia and Poland since 1990 (Figure
has been one of the more efficient
ways to cut emissions (EEA, 2019a), but
more focus is needed on PCBs in the
by a range of policies. Polychlorinated 10.3). However, in Croatia, leaks from existing stock of buildings. There is some
biphenyls (PCBs) are a group of POPs electrical transformers and capacitors are uncertainty in the data. For example,
whose use has been prohibited since the main sources of emissions, and these emissions from buildings — which can be
2004 (EU, 2004b). However, stocks of are estimated using highly uncertain significant — are not routinely included
PCBs in existing buildings and industrial emission factors (MoEE, 2019). Portugal, in emission inventories, and emissions
facilities continue to result in emissions. Slovenia, the United Kingdom and are calculated using emission factors
In 2017, Croatia, Slovenia and Poland Luxembourg have been very successful in that most probably underestimate the
emitted the highest amounts of PCB per decreasing emissions. Removal of sources actual emissions (BiPro et al., 2017;
capita, associated with the legacy use of such as electrical (capacity) insulators Glüge et al., 2017). ■
FIGURE 10.3 Country comparison — reductions in PCB emissions to air per capita in EEA member countries
mg PCB emissions mg PCB emissions

per capita per capita
300 25
250 20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0 0
Fr ia
La ia
un a
Bu ain
Ic ia
m n
ce
a
Es ria
Ire ce
Cz m
N Cy a
er ia
M a
rla s
Tu ds
Fi rk
Sl atia
th y
ly
G ny
ey
te rt a
m om
N urg
en d
Au d
Sw nd
Be nd
ay
Lu Kin al
he ru
H ani
ni
t
i
Ro de
Li gar
ni Po eni
h
ar
G ak
tv
Ita
D lan
an
al
iu
an
e
a
n
rk
st
a
ug
ua
ec
Sp
to
la
et p
m
re
lg
xe gd
e
m
lg
bo
o
ov
nl
el
or
ov
Po
Cr
Sl
d
U
1990 2017
Note: The figures are at different scales. No data available for Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Emissions reported by Cyprus, Malta and the
Netherlands are close to zero. Turkey did not report data. Main emission sources are the industry, energy and waste sectors as well as
the commercial, institutional and households sector.
decreased in the period 2008-2016 so no picture is available for European

(EEA, 2019b). However, comparable Current EU policies mainly trends in pesticide emissions (EEA,
data are limited to only a few 2018b). Emissions of SVHCs and POPs,
address single chemicals
substances, and emissions reported which have been restricted in their use,
under different reporting mechanisms
and often in separate are likely to have decreased, although
are partly inconsistent, while data on policy domains. these are not directly monitored
emissions from diffuse sources to (EEA, 2017b).
water are largely lacking. Few countries
report pesticide emissions to water, Chemical emissions to soil Some
and for only a few selected pesticides, information on contamination of soils

PART 2
TABLE 10.2 Summary assessment — emissions of chemicals
Past trends There are mixed trends, as emissions to air of a few well-known, regulated, persistent and
(10-15 years) hazardous chemicals (e.g. many substances of very high concern, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs),
hexachlorobenzene, mercury) have decreased whereas emissions to water of selected chlorinated and
organic chemicals from industrial installations and waste water treatment plants remained rather stable.
However, the large majority of chemicals that are emitted are not monitored, including more than 2 500
persistent and mobile chemicals.
Outlook to 2030 Continuous progress is expected regarding emissions of the few chemicals that have been banned or
restricted in use, e.g. PCBs and some pesticides. However, even reduced emissions will still contribute
to further accumulation of persistent chemicals in the environment, presenting challenges regarding
environmentally sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycles. Policies governing emissions
of chemicals lag behind the challenge of addressing the large amount of chemicals of unknown fate and
properties.
2020 Europe is making progress towards the objective to minimise the use and emissions of listed persistent
organic pollutants. However, Europe is not on track to meet the objective to minimise the release of hazardous
 chemicals to air, water and land, given the lack of information about emissions of thousands of persistent
chemicals.
Robustness Emissions data to air, water and soil cover very few chemicals out of the thousands released to the
environment. Monitoring methods and reference chemical substances are lacking for the majority of
chemicals in use. Data on emissions to water from different reporting mechanisms are in many cases
inconsistent, and little information is available on diffuse emissions. Outlook information on emissions
of chemicals is largely absent. The assessment of past trends, outlooks and prospects for meeting policy
objectives relies primarily on expert judgement.
by chemicals is available through the is largely absent. Restrictions on use historical emissions accumulated in the
Land Use and Coverage Area Frame should result in a decrease in emissions. environment (Gabbert and Hilber, 2016;
Survey (LUCAS) soil programme — However, because of accumulated Brack et al., 2017).
mainly heavy metals and in the future stocks in products and the environment,
also pesticide residues (Chapter 5). decreasing emissions will not necessarily
However, data on emissions to soils are result in similar decreasing trends in Emerging concerns
not available at European level because the concentrations in the environment.
of a lack of a common policy regarding Accumulated persistent chemicals may Out of the thousands of industrial
the monitoring and managing of such continue to be released from products chemicals produced and released
emissions. At country and regional and buildings, and stocks in soil, to the environment, emissions are
levels, monitoring of emissions may sediment and ice may be re-mobilised monitored and reported for only a
take place. Mapping and targeted due to storms, ice melting or flooding few. Very limited emissions data are
monitoring of sites contaminated with of contaminated soils (Wöhrnschimmel available at the European level for
past or present industrial activities et al., 2016; Newkirk II, 2017). With the diffuse emissions from pesticides,
using hazardous chemicals can help increasing frequency and magnitude biocides, pharmaceuticals, detergents,
to identify potential risks, such as of such events due to climate change, products and materials present
contamination of drinking water the risk of re‑mobilising hazardous in consumer goods and buildings
(EEA, 2019b). chemicals will increase (Moritz et al., (Bolinius et al., 2018). A group of
2017). Therefore, humans and the persistent, highly water soluble and
Looking ahead, available outlook environment are exposed to emissions mobile chemicals are generating
information on emissions of chemicals from both current activities and increasing concern and have been

PART 2
BOX 10.3 Persistent and mobile chemicals in European surface water
T he European research project on

chemicals in water — PROMOTE
(Helmholtz Centre for Environmental
measured chemicals were found at
least once in the 14 water samples
from three European countries.
1,3-di‑o‑tolylguanidine). Concentrations
ranged from nanograms per litre to
micrograms per litre, raising concerns,
Research, 2018) — found that of Half of the water samples contained as several of these substances
the 14 076 chemicals registered 21 of the substances measured. resist even advanced drinking water
under REACH legislation in 2014, All of the water samples contained treatment processes (Brendel et al.,
2 520 were (very) persistent and (very) five of these substances (melamine, 2018; Arp et al., 2017). However,
mobile. Only 57 of them could be 2-acrylamino-2-methylpropane emissions and occurrences of the
measured, because methods were sulfonate, p-toluenesulfonic 43 substances are not monitored under
lacking for the rest. 75 % (43) of the acid, 1,3-diphenylguanidine, current EU regulations. ■
FIGURE 10.4 Fraction of REACH chemicals that are persistent and mobile and found in water
Chemicals registered under REACH (2014)
Chemicals with PM characteristics
Analysed PM substances
Detected PM substances
Detected PM substances in at least 50 % of the samples
Detected PM substances in 100 % of the samples
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Number of chemicals
Note: The scale is logarithmic, PM substances classified as persistent and mobile.
Sources: Schulze et al. (2018, 2019), Brendel at al. (2018); Arp et al. (2017); Arp and Hale (forthcoming).
found in European freshwaters 10.3.3

(Box 10.3). In response, Germany Impacts of chemical pollution on the
has recently proposed that such environment
chemicals be treated under the ►See Table 10.3
REACH Regulation as chemicals of
equivalent concern to substances A large majority of There is a lack of knowledge of
classified as (very) persistent, (very) emitted chemicals remain the impacts of many individual
bioaccumulative and toxic (Neumann chemicals and chemical mixtures on
unmonitored
and Schliebner, 2017; Arp, 2018). the environment. Not all chemicals
More generally it has been proposed
in the environment. or their transformation products
that persistency itself may be the have been assessed, and ecotoxicity
property to avoid (Cousins et al., 2019) assessments focus on very few species
for chemicals that are safe by design and ecosystems. This means that
(Kümmerer, 2018). knowledge about the presence of

PART 2
chemicals is not enough to explain surface water bodies achieved good

observed effects, while ecological With the increasing frequency chemical status (EEA, 2018d). A
impact information alone is similarly relatively small number of substances
and magnitude of storms,
not sufficient to identify the chemicals are responsible for the failure to
causing that impact. Instead, multiple flooding and ice-melting due achieve good chemical status, with
lines of evidence are needed as well as to climate change, the risk mercury responsible for causing
precautionary approaches (EEA, 2018a). of re‑mobilising hazardous failure in a large number of water
Assessments of environmental impacts bodies (Chapter 4). Brominated flame
chemicals will increase.
based on monitoring data for the retardants (the polybrominated
commonly known legacy pollutants diphenyl ethers, pBDEs), tributyltin,
are likely to underestimate the risks polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and
(Sobek et al., 2016). heavy metals were the most frequently
The use of chemicals can also have found in freshwater in Europe
The EU aims to achieve the objective an impact on ecosystem services, for (EEA, 2018d).
that the use of plant protection products example clean soils for food production.
does not have any harmful effects Chemical pollutants may build up in soil A pioneering study analysing risk from
on human health or unacceptable through the application of pesticides, chemicals used monitoring data on
influence on the environment and that inorganic fertilisers containing chemical concentrations, reported in
such products are used sustainably. metals, and sludge, and manure and the WISE SoE database (Malaj et al.,
Recently, the risks posed by pesticides, waste water for irrigation containing 2014). A total of 223 substances
in particular neonicotinoids and their pharmaceuticals, biocides, detergents monitored in European freshwater
effects on pollinators, have been widely and microplastics. In 2018, it was systems were evaluated, and the
demonstrated. Decades of pesticide use estimated that potentially 2.8 million study found that single chemicals
is also a factor in the substantial decline locally contaminated sites exists in the were likely to exert acute lethal
in insects populations in Europe and in EU-28 Member States, mainly from and chronic long-term effects on
the related decline in insect-feeding birds waste disposal and treatment, and that sensitive fish, invertebrate or algae
(Hallmann et al., 2017, 2014) (Chapter 3). this is a significant environmental hazard species. They reported an acute risk
for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at 14 % and a chronic risk at 42 %
The European Food Safety Authority (Payá Pérez and Rodriguez Eugenio of the sites investigated using an
(EFSA) has recently increased its efforts (2018). Legacy pesticides threaten individual chemical risk assessment
to include environmental risks in drinking water in Denmark and Spain. approach (Map 10.1). Increasing
its risk assessments, for example to Soil pollutants affect both invertebrates chemical risk was associated
understand how using pesticides affects and microbes and decrease their with deterioration in the quality
pollinators and sensitive ecosystems. capacity to break down plant matter to status of fish and invertebrate
A recent EFSA study developed a nutrients, affecting the productivity of communities. Pesticides, tributyltin,
procedure for identifying potential soils (Chapter 5). polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
emerging chemical risks to health via and brominated flame retardants
the food chain due to REACH-registered The Water Framework Directive sets were the major contributors to the
substances. Of the approximately maximum thresholds for a range of chemical risk and were related to
15 000 substances registered under the chemicals in surface and groundwater agricultural and urban areas in the
REACH Regulation at the time of the bodies. In the second river basin upstream catchments (EEA, 2018d).
study, 2 336 unique substances were management plans, 38 % of Europe’s The study also found that the expected
selected for assessment. In terms of risk increases with the availability
emerging risks to health via the food of chemical monitoring data,
chain, 212 chemicals were identified confirming that current monitoring
as being released to the environment underestimates risks. The sources
and/or poorly biodegraded, Significant knowledge gaps of these chemicals are a mixture of
bioaccumulating in food/feed and remain regarding the impacts point source emissions from waste
representing a chronic human health water treatment plants, industrial
of the total burden of
hazard. Carcinogenic/mutagenic facilities, contaminated sites and
substances and surfactants dominated chemicals on human health diffuse emissions from agrochemicals
the top 10 list of substances (Oltmanns and the environment. and sludge (Huber et al., 2016;
et al., 2019). Kümmerer, 2018).

PART 2
MAP 10.1 Acute and chronic chemical risk estimates in European river basins
Acute risk Chronic risk
Chemical risk estimates for European river basins (%)
< 10 10-25 25-50 50-75 75-100 < 6 sites No data
Note: The map displays the fraction of sites where the maximum chemical concentration exceeds the acute risk threshold, and the mean chemical
concentration exceeds the chronic risk threshold for any organism group. The calculations are based on reported chemical monitoring data
and calculated using risk estimates for individual compounds. The colours indicate low chemical risk (light blue) to high chemical risk (dark
blue). Direct comparisons between river systems are potentially biased by the ecotoxicologically relevant compounds analysed and the limit of
quantification of the compounds. See Malaj et al. (2014) for further discussion of potential bias in the data (maps have been adapted).
Source: Malaj et al. (2014).
However, there are no cases in which In the marine environment, the Marine However, success has been achieved
only a single substance occurs in the Strategy Framework Directive’s objective in reducing the levels and effects of
environment. More recently, systematic of achieving good environmental status specific chemicals that are banned
efforts have demonstrated that mixtures for contaminants will not be achieved such as tributyltin, which has been
of chemicals affect ecosystem integrity by 2020, as contaminants continue used in antifouling paint (AMAP, 2018).
in aquatic ecosystems to the extent that to give rise to pollution (Chapter 6). While there has been a reduction
simultaneous exposure to pesticides, in PCB emissions, air levels remain
along with other forms of stress, can high (Wöhrnschimmel et al., 2016),
render aquatic organisms up to 100 times as do PCB levels in fish and other
more vulnerable to pesticides (Liess et marine organisms in the North-East
al., 2016; Posthuma et al., 2016). The The Marine Strategy Atlantic and the Baltic and Black Seas.
EU projects SOLUTIONS and MARS Meanwhile, PCB levels have decreased
Framework Directive
found that on average 20 % of aquatic in northern seas but increased in the
species are lost due to exposure to objective regarding Mediterranean (EEA, 2015). Long-lived
chemical mixtures, with increasing contaminants organisms high up the food chain are
exposure reducing the integrity of aquatic will not be achieved by 2020. particularly vulnerable because of their
ecosystems (Posthuma et al., 2019). high accumulation of POPs. Killer whales

PART 2
TABLE 10.3 Summary assessment — chemical pollution and impacts on ecosystems
Past trends There are mixed trends, as the occurrence of some individual substances and their related impacts on
(10-15 years) ecosystems have decreased. However, the effects of most chemicals in the environment have not been
assessed, and many of them are likely to have substantial impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems.
Outlook to 2030 The accumulation of persistent chemicals and continued emissions of hazardous and persistent chemicals
into the environment mean that it is likely that impacts of chemical pollution on ecosystems will not decrease.
Legacy and emerging pollutants in soil are a particular concern considering the lack of a European policy on
soil. Overall, current policies lag behind in addressing a large number of chemicals, and procedures do not
keep up with the pace of developments, such as increasing production, new chemicals entering the market,
chemicals in imported articles, and gaps in the evidence base.
2020 Europe is not on track to minimise the significant adverse effects of chemicals on the environment by 2020.
 Only 38 % of Europe’s water bodies are in good chemical status, and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
objective regarding contaminants will not be achieved.
Robustness The availability of monitoring data on chemicals in the environment influences the assessment of risk, and
the risks appear higher where information is available than where it is lacking. The risks are likely greatly
underestimated, as only a fraction of chemicals are monitored and assessed, and mixture effects and multiple
stressors are not included in risk assessments. Knowledge of the impacts of chemical pollution on ecosystems
is very scattered, and outlook information is absent; therefore, the assessment of these impacts relies
primarily on expert judgement.
now risk extinction because PCBs are emissions of nanomaterials into the disorders, neurological disorders such as
impairing their reproduction and health environment, which may pose different Parkinson’s disease and autism, immune
(Desforges et al., 2018). and less well-understood risks, is system and cardiovascular disorders,
another area of concern (EEA, 2013; diabetes and cancer. These health
EU, 2013; Hansen, 2018). impacts may shorten life expectancy
Emerging concerns (mortality) and/or may lead to increased
illness (morbidity) over the course
Continuous and high-volume releases 10.3.4 of a lifetime or in later generations
of bioactive biocides, fungicides, plant Human exposure to chemical (WHO, 2016).
protection products, surfactants and pollution and impacts on human
pharmaceuticals into the environment health People are exposed to mixtures
affect ecosystems and pose risks for ►See Table 10.4 of chemicals via their diet, the
the development of wider antibiotic and environment and contact with a wide
fungal resistance. In 2017, the European The overarching policy goal regarding range of consumer products. Some
Commission issued an action plan on the impacts of chemicals on health is to groups of people in society are more
antimicrobial resistance (EC, 2017), minimise significant adverse effects from vulnerable, either because they are
which will complement existing the production and use of chemicals. exposed to higher concentrations of
laws such as the Biocidal Product There is evidence that human exposure hazardous chemicals or to mixtures
Regulation (EU, 2012). A strategy for to a complex mixture of hazardous of chemicals or because their bodies
pharmaceuticals in the environment chemicals via environmental pollution are more sensitive to the impacts of
was adopted in March 2019 (EC, 2019a), generates a range of negative health hazardous chemicals. Workers handling
as called for in the Water Framework outcomes (WHO, 2016; Landrigan et al., chemicals are typically exposed to
Directive and reiterated by a European 2017; Bopp et al., 2018;). The range the highest levels (EU-OSHA, 2017a).
Council decision in December 2016 of chronic diseases associated with Young children and pregnant women
(Council of the European Union, 2016). exposure to hazardous chemicals are particularly sensitive, as exposure
The rapid development and use, and includes allergies, asthma, reproductive to chemicals that cause developmental

PART 2
toxicity to the endocrine, neurological as marlin, swordfish and tuna). It is

and immune systems during fetal estimated that a minority of European
development and early childhood can fish consumers reach mercury levels
result in chronic diseases later in life considered hazardous by the World
or in later generations (Grandjean and Health Organization (WHO) (Castaño et
Bellanger, 2017). Minimising the signficant al., 2015). However, children are more
adverse impacts of chemicals vulnerable, and it has been estimated
There is a lack of robust data on the that every year throughout Europe,
actual exposure of the European
including pesticides nearly 1.8 million babies, approximately
population to hazardous chemicals in Europe by 2020 is unlikely. one third of all births, are born with
to feed into an understanding of methylmercury levels above a safe limit
the risks to human health. In order (Bellanger et al., 2013). Countries with
to better understand exposure to higher levels of large predatory fish
chemicals, human biomonitoring can consumption were estimated to have
be used to measure the concentrations proportionately more babies born with
of chemicals in blood, breast milk, individual substances and in mixtures mercury levels above the limit. The
urine or hair. The European human (Evans et al., 2016). Under the global potential impact on children’s brain
biomonitoring initiative, HBM4EU, is monitoring plan conducted by the development is lifelong and can result
currently gathering human exposure World Health Organization and in significant cognitive impairment with
data for 17 groups of chemicals, as well UN Environment in support of the related economic costs (Grandjean
as mixtures and emerging substances, Stockholm Convention on Persistent and Bellanger, 2017). Pregnant women
and exploring links to health impacts. Organic Pollutants, hundreds of POPs can continue to follow official dietary
The aim of the initiative is to produce have been identified in human breast guidelines and consume fish while
coherent, comparable exposure data milk, including PCBs and brominated avoiding large predatory species to
for the European population in order to flame retardants (Fång et al., 2015), lower mercury intake.
evaluate existing measures and support as well as per- and polyfluorinated
the development of targeted policy alkyl substances, or PFAS (Nyberg et Concerns have been growing
measures to deliver chemical safety. al., 2018; EFSA, 2018). Due to their in Europe for many years
bioaccumulation properties, POPs that regarding the risks to health from
In terms of exposure to pesticide have been phased out continue to be endocrine‑disrupting chemicals,
residues in food, in 2015 more than a significant source of exposure for example bisphenols, phthalates,
97 % of food samples collected across (Evans et al., 2016). benzophenones and some pesticides
the EU contained pesticides within the (Kortenkamp et al., 2012; EC, 2018b).
legal limits, with just over 53 % free Methylmercury is an example of a Endocrine disruptors interfere with
of quantifiable residues (EFSA, 2017). developmental neurotoxicant that natural hormone systems, can have
Concerns remain regarding human affects the brain development of affects at very low doses and can
exposure to neurotoxic pesticides fetuses and young children. The most result in health effects long after the
(Grandjean and Landrigan, 2014; Mie significant route of human exposure exposure has stopped. Exposure to
et al., 2018) and mixtures of pesticides to mercury is diet, with the highest endocrine disruptors in the womb may
(Hass et al., 2017). Regulation blood mercury concentrations found disturb the development of the child
396/2005/EC on the maximum residue in communities that consume lot causing irreversible health effects, and
levels of pesticides in or on food of predatory fish (e.g. species such it can even have consequences for the
and feed of plant and animal origin next generation. Endocrine disruption
highlights the importance of further is also associated with health outcomes
work to develop a methodology to take including lower fertility, obesity and
into account cumulative and mixture diabetes. The increased incidence of
effects. EFSA is undertaking a number People are exposed testicular cancer over a short time
of activities to deliver on this mandate. to mixtures of chemicals via scale has been linked to exposure to
endocrine disruptors (Skakkebaek et al.,
their diet, the environment
Current evidence suggests that POPs 2015). A recent study estimated the
and certain metals are responsible and contact with a wide range cost of health impacts from exposure
for a substantial proportion of the of consumer products. to endocrine disruptors in the EU to
chemical burden on health, both as be EUR 157 billion annually as a result

PART 2
TABLE 10.4 Summary assessment — chemical pollution and risks to human health and well-being
Past trends Despite reduced emissions of some known hazardous substances, concerns remain regarding daily
(10-15 years) human exposure to chemicals and their health effects, including allergies and premature death of
workers. Exposure to legacy pollutants remains a health concern despite emission reductions, as does
exposure to developmentally toxic substances, such as endocrine-disrupting, neuro- and immunotoxic
chemicals.
Outlook to 2030 The impact of accumulated chemicals, and continued emissions of hazardous and persistent chemicals,
suggests that human exposure to complex mixtures of chemicals will continue to increase. Increased imports
of articles and recycling of materials may increase exposure to chemicals of concern. Current policies lag
behind in assessing and regulating the risks of exposure to the large majority of chemicals in use. It is
therefore unlikely that the negative effects of chemicals on human health will decrease.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the objective of minimising risks to health from hazardous chemicals by 2020.
 However, progress has been made, and the REACH Regulation has been successful in identifying a number of
substances of very high concern and putting risk management measures in place.
Robustness There is a lack of data on exposure and toxicity for a large number of chemicals, as well as knowledge gaps
regarding several types of toxicities and mixture toxicity. There are no coherent time trends in exposure data
at European level with which to assess trends, and there are data gaps regarding emerging substances. The
assessment of past trends, outlooks and prospects of meeting policy objectives relies primarily on expert
judgement.
of disease and dysfunction across the et al., 2017), and some are suspected
human life course (Trasande et al., Exposures to hazardous of being endocrine disrupters (Kar et al.,
2016). A number of substances in the 2017; EFSA, 2018).
chemical group phthalates, the most
chemicals and their
widely used plasticisers, have been corresponding health In terms of regulatory control, some
found to have endocrine-disrupting risks are likely to increase PFAS are listed as POPs under the
properties (DEHP, BBP, DBP and in the future. Stockholm Convention and are subject
DiBP). These along with bisphenol A to phasing out. Perfluorooctanoic
are subject to risk management acid (PFOA) is restricted under the
measures under the REACH Regulation REACH legislation, and other PFAS
(EU, 2016, 2018b). are classified as SVHCs under REACH.
Based on new evidence on the harmful
lubricants in consumer products, effects of PFAS on humans, EFSA
Emerging concerns pharmaceuticals, pesticides and has recently provisionally lowered
industrial processes (Scheringer the tolerable intake for PFOA and
There are growing concerns regarding et al., 2014; Ritscher et al., 2018). As a perfluorosulfonic acid (PFOS) in
a large number of emerging substances consequence, PFAS have been found food and water and estimated that a
that are not included in routine everywhere, even in the most remote significant proportion of Europeans are
monitoring at the European level and parts of the world. Those PFAS that exposed above the health-based limits
for which impacts on environment bioaccumulate have been found in high (EFSA, 2018). A recent study estimated
and health are poorly understood. levels in biota and in the blood, organs the annual health-related costs due to
An example is the group of PFAS which and breast milk of humans (Nyberg exposure to PFAS at 2.8‑4.6 billion EUR
includes more than 4 700 chemicals et al., 2018). This generates concern, as for the five Nordic countries and
that are or degrade to very persistent several PFAS have been associated with 52‑84 billion EUR for all EEA countries.
compounds (OECD, 2018). They are decreased immune system function, The costs related to environmental
widely used as surfactants, stain and increased cholesterol levels, and remediation were estimated to be
water repellents, emulsifiers and kidney and testicular cancer (Rappazzo 46 million‑11 billion EUR over the next

PART 2
20 years for the five Nordic countries management measures put in place
up to 70 %
(Nordic Council of Ministers, 2019). through processes that also take
considerable time. In a context in which
Antimicrobial resistance is a worldwide, over 22 600 chemical substances are
increasing threat to human health registered under REACH, many with
(UNEP, 2017). Health and food sectors of REACH registration unknown properties and impacts,
are heavily involved in action to mitigate the current substance-by-substance
dossiers were found to be
the risk (WHO, 2017) but understanding approach involving an extended period
of the significance of the environment
noncompliant. until risk management measures are
as an exposure pathway lags behind put in place is not fit for purpose.
(EEA, 2016, 2018b). Major potential Despite these shortcomings, the REACH
areas for transmission are in discharges Regulation has positioned the EU as a
from industry and urban waste water frontrunner in this area and influenced
treatment plants and in the use of legislation in other countries.
biocides and antibiotics in agriculture for challenges in terms of coherence and
veterinary use. effectiveness, and its relevance is Alongside REACH, the CLP Regulation,
challenged by the frequency with which the POPs Regulation and the Directive
While a range of evidence is presented new chemicals are introduced, the on restriction of hazardous substances
here for substances known to be regulation and monitoring of relatively (RoHS) have contributed significantly
hazardous, there are considerable few and mainly single substances and to managing the risks and reducing
uncertainties regarding the total burden the expansion of our knowledge of the exposure to hazardous chemicals, such
of disease related to chemical exposure risks of chemicals (EEA, 2013). as SVHCs (EC, 2019c). Legislation has,
and it is likely to be underestimated however, not effectively prevented
(Landrigan et al., 2017; Gross and The main drivers for the introduction occupational diseases (EC, 2016;
Birnbaum, 2017; Grandjean and of the REACH legislation (EU, 2006b) EU‑OSHA, 2017b), but a roadmap to
Bellanger, 2017). Looking ahead, the were to address the information reduce occupational cancers in Europe
projected growth in consumption of gap regarding chemicals and to has been developed (EU-OSHA, 2017a).
chemicals, the rather stable proportion accelerate risk assessment and the
of those known to be hazardous implementation of risk management Risk assessments used within chemicals
and the accumulation of persistent for existing chemicals to protect human legislation were reviewed as part of
chemicals together suggest that human health and the environment (EC, the European Commission’s fitness
exposure to hazardous chemicals is 2019c). Some 10 years after its entry check of the most relevant chemicals
likely to increase, with corresponding into force, the REACH Regulation is fully legislation (EC, 2019c). Risk assessment
impacts on health. operational, although progress towards processes require significant amounts
the objectives is lagging behind initial of data as input, but when there are
expectations. The second REACH review gaps in the evidence base it may
10.4 (EC, 2018a) identified shortcomings lead to a trade-off between decision-
Responses and prospects of in its implementation that hamper making in the context of uncertainty or
meeting agreed targets and the achievement of its objectives, delaying decision-making to generate
objectives including up to 70 % of registration more data. When data do not permit
dossiers not being compliant (ECHA, a complete evaluation of the risk but
10.4.1 2018b; BFR, 2018) and the need to the potential risks could be severe,
Relevance, effectiveness and simplify the authorisation process, the Treaty on the Functioning of the
coherence of current policies ensure a level playing field for non-EU European Union, Article 191 (EU,
countries and ensure policy coherence 2008a), allows for the application of the
Chemicals legislation encompasses between REACH and other legislation. precautionary principle. The principle
different policy domains. The REACH In addition, the time required for enables a rapid response through
Regulation addresses industrial substances of potential concern preventive decision‑taking to protect
chemicals, while pesticides, to human health to be evaluated human, animal or plant health (EC,
pharmaceuticals, food contact under the REACH legislation has 2000). However, the precautionary
materials and others are addressed been estimated at 7-9 years, during principle is not used to its full potential,
separately. This complexity of which time exposure continues. Only as is highlighted in the REACH review
chemicals legislation creates some after evaluation is complete are risk (EC, 2018a).

PART 2
10.4.2 10.4.3
Cross-cutting challenges Designing safer chemicals Looking ahead to a non-toxic,
and products for circular use circular economy
Although humans and the environment
are generally exposed to mixtures of
would support the transition The transition to a non-toxic
chemicals, the current approach to risk to a circular economy and a environment will require different
assessment in chemicals legislation is non-toxic environment. approaches to managing hazardous
generally based on single substances. chemicals in products and in the
Understanding of the risks of exposure environment. The systematic
to mixtures is growing, and efforts application of the precautionary
have been made to review available principle, a stronger focus on
methodologies for risk assessment preventing emissions, reducing the use
of mixtures (Bopp et al., 2015, 2016). Looking ahead, this raises concerns of hazardous chemicals in products and
EFSA has prepared guidance on regarding substances currently in regulating groups of substances could
harmonised methodologies for human use or produced that are persistent, all effectively reduce exposure while
and animal health and ecological risk accumulating or mobile. As knowledge keeping up with the rapid introduction
assessment of combined exposure on hazards increases, some of these of new chemicals (EEA, 2018a; EC,
to multiple chemicals (EFSA Scientific substances are likely to be found to 2019c). Establishing inventories of
Committee et al., 2019). The HBM4EU be toxic after they have already been chemicals of concern in products may
project will gather and produce data on released into the environment. As enable more frequent enforcement and
actual human exposure to mixtures of cleaning up is often not feasible or lead to increased levels of compliance
chemicals as a basis for risk assessment. too costly, this calls for a preventive (ECHA, 2018c). Early warning systems
regulatory focus on such substances. to detect mixtures of emerging
Regulating groups of chemicals contaminants in air, water and sensitive
rather than single substances is The 7th EAP calls for safety concerns biota close to emission points could
being considered by the European related to endocrine disruptors support faster action. An important
Commission and the European to be effectively addressed in EU future task is devising better controls
Chemicals Agency (ECHA) as a means legislation by 2020 (EU, 2013). In to prevent banned substances from
of speeding up risk assessment, hazard response, the EU published scientific entering Europe as chemicals or in
assessment and risk management criteria for the identification of active manufactured products (EC, 2019b)
(ECHA, 2018a, 2018b). Recent substances in pesticides (EC, 2018b)
examples include the restriction and biocides (EU, 2017) that have At the same time, Europe aims to
of four phthalates (EU, 2018a) and endocrine‑disrupting properties. The develop into a circular economy
the proposal to have a PFAS group EU is investing in research on endocrine that maximises the value and use of
limit in EU drinking water (European disruptors to produce evidence and products and materials through reuse,
Parliament, 2018). Another argument develop methods to support decision- repair, refurbishment and recycling
for regulating groups of substances making. The Commission will also (Chapter 9). Moving towards a circular
is avoiding regrettable substitutions, launch a comprehensive screening of economy will therefore require a
whereby a banned hazardous chemical the legislation applicable to endocrine high level of traceability and a risk
is replaced by a similar chemical disruptors, which will include a public management approach that deals
subsequently found to be harmful. In consultation (EC, 2018b). with legacy substances and long-term
implementing the REACH legislation, risks (Pivnenko and Fruergaard, 2016;
ECHA now pays increasing attention In the 7th EAP, it was anticipated that EEB, 2017). Risk assessment needs
to the structural similarity between a non-toxic environment strategy to consider not only the first life of a
substances and has also started to would be developed by 2018, which product but also all potential future
consider substances in groups to avoid was intended to address some of these lives and hence different exposure
regrettable substitutions (ECHA, 2018d). cross-cutting challenges. A future scenarios from those considered in a
initiative on sound management of linear economy. One of the key areas
Legacy chemicals that are now chemicals and waste would need for action will be to ensure the safe
strictly regulated but that persist and to link to the broader international disposal of toxic substances at the end
accumulate in the environment, such as policy agenda, including the strategic of the product’s life cycle. Efforts to
PCBs and heavy metals, remain an issue approach to international chemicals clean up material flows can enhance the
for both ecosystems and human health. management and the SDGs. long‑term potential for circularity.

PART 2
Ensuring greater future use of chemicals

and products that are safe and circular by BOX 10.4
design would support the transitions to The NonHazCity project: regional knowledge building and public
procurement to reduce emissions of hazardous chemicals into the
both a circular economy and a non‑toxic
Baltic Sea
environment. Their development requires
education of chemists and material
designers in how to design and develop
safer chemicals and products (Warner
and Ludwig, 2016; Kümmerer, 2018), as
E leven cities in eight countries
(Belarus, Estonia, Finland, Germany,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden)
plants cannot completely remove all
chemicals, implying that emissions
must be tackled at source. In terms
well as targeted and interdisciplinary joined efforts to reduce emissions of of sources, diffuse sources related
innovation support, as highlighted in hazardous chemicals into the Baltic to product emissions, such as indoor
ECHA’s recent strategy (ECHA, 2018d). Sea. The project addresses small-scale dust and laundry waste water, are
Moreover, Best Available Techniques emitters, including municipalities, more important than industrial point
conclusions under the Industrial small and medium-sized enterprises, sources for some chemicals. Old
Emissions Directive (Chapter 12) can and households and aims to reduce products frequently contain higher
promote safe-by-design chemicals. the use and emissions of hazardous levels of hazardous chemicals than
A reduction in material and chemical chemicals. Substances selected from new products.
complexity and a focus on ecodesign and the list of priority substances under
on the function delivered by a product the Water Framework Directive and The project recommended
will help facilitate the transition to clean substances of very high concern under public awareness campaigns
material cycles, with good performance the REACH Regulation were screened and dialogue with small and
and competitive prices compared with in urban waste water and storm medium-sized enterprises to guide
using virgin materials (EEA, 2017a). Their water, in waste water treatment plant purchasing choices and behaviour.
uptake can be speeded up through the influents and effluents and in sewage Municipalities can develop and
use of clean procurement (Box 10.4), sludge. Potential upstream sources implement clean chemicals
and considering essential versus were identified using maps and data strategies and reduce their use
non‑essential uses. While a transition on chemicals in everyday old and new of hazardous chemicals through
to a non-toxic and circular economy products. public procurement. Procurement
based on safer chemicals may not be criteria should include hazardous
simple to achieve, it could nevertheless Hazardous chemicals were widely substances and address compliance
provide systemic solutions, which would detected. Waste water treatment with relevant legislation. ■
support environmental sustainability and
Source: Gercken et al. (2018).
progress towards the SDGs and boost
innovation in Europe.

11.
Environmental
noise
2
© Rayya Kartal, Sustainably Yours/EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• Environmental noise remains a • The number of people exposed
major environmental health problem to high levels of noise since 2012 has
in Europe with at least 20 % of the broadly remained stable. The objective
EU’s population living in areas where of the Seventh Environment Action
noise levels are considered harmful Programme — to significantly reduce
to health. noise pollution in the EU and move
closer to World Health Organization
• Road traffic noise is the most recommended levels by 2020 —
dominant source of environmental will not be achieved.
noise, with an estimated 113 million
people affected by long-term daily • An increase in the numbers
average noise levels of at least exposed to environmental noise
55 dB(A) and 79 million people is projected as a result of future
affected by night‑time noise levels of urban growth and increased mobility
at least 50 dB(A). demands. Therefore reducing noise
pollution will require further efforts.
• Exposure to noise pollution
harms health. Long-term exposure • The implementation of the
is estimated to contribute to 48 000 Environmental Noise Directive,
new cases of heart disease per year introduced in 2002, has not yet
in Europe and to 12 000 premature achieved its full potential. It would
deaths. In addition to this, it is be achieved if Member States
estimated that 22 million people suffer implemented it fully, particularly
severe annoyance, 6.5 million people with respect to completeness,
suffer severe sleep disturbance and comparability and timeliness of
12 500 school children may suffer reporting, as well as implementing
learning impairment due to aircraft action plans that include the
noise. protection of quiet areas.

objectives/targets
Population exposure to environmental Trends show a mixed Deteriorating

noise and impacts on human health picture developments dominate
Preservation of quiet areas Trends show a mixed Developments show a

picture mixed picture
4 par A
PART 2
11.
Environmental
noise
11.1 airports, inside and outside urban areas

Scope of the theme as well as industry inside urban areas.
The results presented in this chapter
Environmental noise is a pervasive show the number of people exposed to
pollutant that adversely affects the health noise levels of 55 dB or higher during
and well-being of Europe’s citizens as well Noise remains a major cause the day-evening-night period, as well
as wildlife. Although noise is a product as to night-time noise levels of 50 dB
of environment-related health
of many human activities, the most or higher for the three rounds of noise
widespread source of environmental
problems in Europe. mapping in 2007, 2012 and 2017 (see
noise is transport. To this effect, noise Box 11.1). Throughout the chapter, and
caused by transport is considered according to the Seventh Environment
to be the second most significant Action Programme (7th EAP), those
environmental cause of ill health in are referred to as ‘high noise levels’.
western Europe, after fine particulate (Jarosińska et al., 2018). Furthermore, However, even levels below these
matter pollution (Hänninen et al., 2014; there is also increasing evidence thresholds have been found to have
WHO and JRC, 2011). According to the regarding the harmful effects of transport negative health effects (WHO, 2009,
World Health Organization (WHO), noise on wildlife (Shannon et al., 2016). 2018). The impact of noise on health is
prolonged exposure to environmental The effects of noise vary depending on assessed in terms of annoyance, sleep
noise is associated with an increased the species, although, in general, noise disturbance, cardiovascular effects,
risk of negative physiological and interferes with animals’ feeding, hunting cognitive impairment in children, and
psychological health outcomes (WHO, and breeding behaviour. annual premature deaths caused by
2018). These include cardiovascular and heart disease.
metabolic effects, reduced cognitive The state of the knowledge presented in
performance in children, and severe this chapter is based on data reported by Identifying and protecting areas
annoyance and sleep disturbance. As the EEA 33 member countries excluding undisturbed by environmental noise
a result of projections of rapid urban Turkey (EEA-33) in accordance with the is also a requirement under the END.
growth and increased demand for Environmental Noise Directive (END) on Therefore, a spatial assessment of noise
transport, a simultaneous increase in a 5-year cycle (EU, 2002) and submitted exposure data combined with land
exposure to noise and the associated up to 1 January 2019. The data cover use cover data for areas potentially
adverse effects can be anticipated noise sources such as roads, railways and unaffected by noise pollution in European
SOER 2020/Environmental noise 255

PART 2
Noise reduction
Significantly reducing noise pollution in the EU moving closer to WHO 7th EAP (EU) 2020 Non-binding commitment
recommended levels.
Implementing measures to reduce noise at source and including 7th EAP (EU) 2020 Non-binding commitment
improvements in city design
Decreasing noise levels below the values specified in the WHO noise WHO (2018) N/A Non-binding commitment
guidelines is strongly recommended
Member States must prepare noise maps every 5 years to determine Directive 2002/49/EC N/A Legally-binding
exposure to environmental noise from transport and industry sources.
These noise maps serve as the basis for adopting action plans
designed to prevent and reduce harmful exposure in areas affected
by noise from roads, railways, airports and industry. The plans should
also aim to protect quiet areas against an increase in noise
Impacts on human health and well-being
By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from SDG 3 2030 Non-binding commitment
non‑communicable diseases through prevention and treatment
and promote mental health and well-being
Note: SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; N/A, non-applicable.
cities is presented for 2012 and 2017. objective, the 7th EAP identified the need
Quiet areas are not only beneficial for to implement an updated EU noise policy Quiet areas are beneficial for
human health but are also consistent aligned with the latest scientific evidence
human health and wildlife.
with the need to protect species as well as measures to reduce noise at
vulnerable to noise and areas of valuable source, including by improving urban
habitat. design.
In the EU, the END is the primary

11.2 legislative tool for achieving noise or their components or by restricting
Policy landscape reduction. The Directive offers a their operation (EEA, 2014).
common approach to avoiding and
The EU 7th EAP (EU, 2013) recognises preventing exposure to environmental Table 11.1 presents an overview of
that a large number of people living noise through the reporting of noise selected policy targets and objectives
in major urban areas are exposed to mapping and action planning, thereby on environmental noise addressed in
high levels of noise at which adverse reducing its harmful effects as well this chapter.
health effects frequently occur. To as preserving quiet areas (EU, 2002).
address this environmental impact, Accompanying the END, there are a Although, as shown in Box 11.2, health
it sets out the objective that by 2020 number of other legislative measures and well-being can be affected at levels
noise pollution in the EU needs to be that aim to address or control noise below the END reporting thresholds,
significantly decreased, moving closer to at source, such as by imposing noise there is a significant lack of data on the
WHO recommended levels. To meet this limits on certain vehicles or equipment number of people exposed to noise
256 SOER 2020/Environmental noise

PART 2
BOX 11.1 BOX 11.2

EU noise indicators The 2018 Environmental noise guidelines for the European region (WHO, 2018)
T he Environmental Noise Directive

(END) defines two important noise
indicators to be used for noise mapping
I n 1999 and 2009 the World Health
Organization (WHO) published
guidelines to protect human health
impairment and tinnitus, adverse birth
outcomes, and quality of life, mental
health and well‑being. These reviews
and action planning: from exposure to community noise are the basis for the development of
and night noise. Since then there has the recommended noise levels above
Lden: Long-term average indicator been a substantial increase in the which negative effects on health begin
designed to assess annoyance and number and quality of studies on according to our best knowledge. ■
defined by the END. It refers to an environmental noise exposure and
A-weighted average sound pressure level health outcomes. Following the Parma
over all days, evenings and nights in a Declaration on Environment and
year with an evening weighting of 5 dB Health, adopted at the Fifth Ministerial
Reducing noise below these levels is
and a night weighting of 10 dB. Conference (2010), the Ministers and recommended (WHO, 2018).
representatives of Member States in
Lnight: Long-term average indicator the WHO European Region requested
defined by the END and designed to WHO to develop updated guidelines Road Rail Aircraft
assess sleep disturbance. It refers to an on environmental noise. To this end,
A-weighted annual average night period WHO commissioned systematic reviews Lden 53 dB 54 dB 45 dB
of exposure. to assess the relationship between
environmental noise and health Lnight 45 dB 44 dB 40 dB
High noise levels are defined in the 7th outcomes such as cardiovascular and
EAP as noise levels above 55 dB Lden and metabolic effects, annoyance, effects
50 dB Lnight. ■ on sleep, cognitive impairment, hearing
levels below 55 dB Lden and 50 dB Lnight, the overall number of people exposed levels considered harmful to human
as reporting at such levels is voluntary. to day-evening-night average sound health has generally remained stable
levels of 55 dB or higher is estimated across most of the noise sources, with
to be 113 million for road traffic noise, the exception of railway noise outside
11.3 22 million for railway noise, 4 million urban areas for which there was a
Key trends and outlooks for aircraft noise and less than 1 million significant increase of 27 %. Efforts to
for noise caused by industry. Similarly, reduce exposure to noise from individual
11.3.1 road traffic is by far the biggest source of sources may be being offset by continuing
Population exposure to environmental noise during night-time, migration to urban areas, which implies a
environmental noise and impacts followed by railway, air and industrial growth in population, activity and traffic.
on human health noise, respectively. These results Increased demand for passenger and
►See Table 11.3 indicate that at least 20 % of Europeans goods transport across cities, regions and
are exposed to long-term average countries can also negatively influence
To support the implementation of day‑evening-night noise levels of 55 dB or efforts to reduce the number of people
the END (EU, 2002), the EEA gathers more and more than 15 % to night‑time exposed to high noise levels. There are
population exposure data from its noise levels of 50 dB or more — levels at regulations related to noise action plans
33 member countries (EEA-33). The which adverse health effects can occur that have come into force recently but
current state of knowledge on noise (Figures 11.1, 11.2, 11.3). that have not yet clearly reduced the
sources and population exposure reported number of people exposed
in Europe is largely based on this Trends between 2012 and 2017 suggest to noise. This is the case, for example,
database. According to the latest data, that the number of people exposed to for Regulation 598/2014 on noise

PART 2
FIGURE 11.1 Number of people exposed to Lden ≥ 55 dB in Europe, based on areas covered by strategic noise maps,
EEA-33 (Turkey not included)
Number of people exposed to Lden ≥ 55 dB (Millions)
Inside urban areas Outside urban areas
Road Rail Air Industry Road Rail Air
80.7 81.7
73.8
34.7
31.0 31.1
10.8 10.7 10.9

8.7 8.6
6.0
2.9 3.1 3.1
1.0 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.1
12
17
07
17
07
12
17
12
17
07
12
17
07
12
17
12
07
12
17
07
07
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Note: There are comparability issues between 2007 and the other reporting years because of different reporting requirements. There may be
comparability issues between 2012 and 2017 because of a lack of common assessment methods or incomplete reporting of exposure
assessments. Due to gaps in the reported data, a gap-filling procedure was used to estimate the number of people exposed to high
noise levels in 2012 and 2017, introducing a degree of uncertainty into the assessment.
management at airports, which calls for caution, as the reporting requirements
20 %
cutting noise levels by deploying modern for urban areas, major roads and railways
aircraft, careful land use planning, in 2007 were different from those in
quieter ground control operations and 2012 and 2017. The 2007 data refer to
restrictions on night‑time flying (EU, 2014). noise in urban areas with more than
of the EU’s population lives 250 000 inhabitants, major roads with
This assessment (2012-2017) takes more than 6 million vehicles a year and
in areas where noise levels
into account gap-filled data from railways with more than 60 000 trains a
are considered harmful urban areas with more than 100 000 year. Therefore, the results from 2007 are
to human health inhabitants as well as major roads with not fully comparable to those from 2012
and well-being. more than 3 million vehicles per year, and 2017.
railways with more than 30 000 trains
per year and airports with more than As shown in Figure 11.3, there is
50 000 movements per year. The data a considerable variability in the
shown for 2007 have to be treated with percentage of the population

PART 2
FIGURE 11.2 Number of people exposed to Lnight ≥ 50 dB in Europe, based on areas covered by strategic noise
maps, EEA-33 (Turkey not included)
Number of people exposed to Lnight ≥ 50 dB (Millions)
57.6 57.5
53.2
23.8
20.4 21.1
9.0
8.3 8.1
6.5 7.1
4.8
0.8 0.9 0.9
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
12
17
17
07
12
17
17
07
12
17
07
12
17
07
12
07
12
07
12
07
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Note: There are comparability issues between 2007 and the other reporting years because of different reporting requirements. There may be
comparability issues between 2012 and 2017 because of a lack of common assessment methods or incomplete reporting of exposure
assessments. Due to gaps in the reported data, a gap-filling procedure was used to estimate the number of people exposed to high
noise levels in 2012 and 2017, introducing a degree of uncertainty into the assessment.
exposed to high noise levels within agglomerations in their territories. For

individual countries — from 9 % of instance, Switzerland may have a high
the population exposed to road traffic percentage of people exposed to road
noise in Slovakia to 54 % in Cyprus. noise inside urban areas, as it reports
The variability between countries 13 agglomerations according to its own
may be due to several factors. One agglomeration criteria. Conversely, Road traffic is the main source
of them is the way in which countries countries with a similar population
of noise with about 113 million
define agglomerations. The END states such as Portugal or Norway report six
that data need to be reported for all and five agglomerations, respectively.
people affected by daily
agglomerations with a population in Another reason may be the density of average noise levels of 55dB
excess of 100 000 and a population transport networks in the country. For or higher.
density such that the Member State instance, in the central part of Europe
considers them urbanised areas. (e.g. Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Therefore, it depends how countries Luxembourg and Switzerland), where
define density and how they delimit the railway network is denser and well

PART 2
FIGURE 11.3 Country comparison — percentage of the total country population exposed to Lden ≥ 55 dB in 2017,
EEA-33 (Turkey not included)
Outside urban areas
Austria 24.2 6.6 0.1 0.1 8.2 5.7 0.1
Belgium 14.0* 1.0* 0.6* 0.2* 8.6 2.2 0.6*
Bulgaria 28.8* 0.6* 0.1* 0.0* 1.5
Croatia 7.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0
Cyprus 49.2* 3.2* 0.9* 1.0* 4.7*
Czechia 16.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 1.8 0.1
Denmark 18.5 0.5* 0.1* 0.0* 5.0 1.5 0.0*
Estonia 22.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5
Finland 8.8 1.6 0.1* 0.0* 2.1 0.6 0.4
France 23.5* 3.6* 0.7* 0.2* 9.8 3.9 0.0*
Germany 6.9* 3.7 0.7 0.1* 3.3 4.0 0.4
Greece 7.9* 1.3* 0.4* 0.1* 0.2* 0.0* 0.0*
Hungary 16.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.9 0.3
Iceland 16.6 0.5* 0.2 0.5
Ireland 14.4 0.6 0.6 4.8 0.3 0.0
Italy 13.7* 0.9* 0.7* 0.1* 12.0* 3.3 0.3*
Latvia 27.0 2.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 0.1
Liechtenstein 11.4*
Lithuania 26.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0
Luxembourg 24.5 1.5 10.1 0.0 11.2 3.3 1.1
Malta 22.4 1.9 0.0 3.7
Netherlands 19.3 1.3 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0
Norway 15.2* 2.2* 0.2* 0.0* 2.6* 0.2 0.1*
Poland 11.6 0.6* 0.1 0.1* 5.7 0.5 0.0
Portugal 5.2 0.4 0.9 0.0 8.6* 1.0 1.3
Romania 13.3* 1.5* 0.2* 1.2* 1.6* 0.1* 0.0*
Slovakia 6.7* 2.4* 0.0* 0.0* 2.9* 2.0*
Slovenia 9.8 1.2 0.0 5.5 1.1
Spain 24.8* 1.1* 0.2* 0.2* 4.2* 0.7* 0.3
Sweden 12.3 2.9 0.2* 0.0 3.3 2.7 0.2
Switzerland 30.6 3.4 1.1 0.2* 5.1 2.4 0.0
United Kingdom 14.5 1.9 1.5 0.2 6.5 0.7 0.2*
* Data totally or partially estimated
0 Percentage of the population exposed to high noise levels (Lden) 50
Note: Based on areas covered by the END.
Sources: EEA (2019b); ETC/ATNI (2019b).

PART 2
TABLE 11.2 Estimated number of people suffering from various health outcomes due to environmental noise in
2017, EEA-33 (Turkey not included)
High High sleep Ischemic heart Premature Cognitive

annoyance disturbance disease mortality impairment in
children
Inside urban areas
Road 12 525 000 3 242 400 29 500 7 600
Rail 1 694 700 795 500 3 100 800
Air 848 300 168 500 700 200 9 500
Industry 87 200 23 400 200 50
Outside urban areas
Road 4 625 500 1 201 000 10 900 2 500
Rail 1 802 400 962 900 3 400 900
Air 285 400 82 900 200 50 2 900
Note: Premature mortality calculated as premature mortality due to ischaemic heart disease.
developed, a higher percentage of new cases of ischaemic heart disease,

people are exposed to railway noise 48 000 new cases of heart and 12 000 premature deaths (Table
outside urban areas than in other 11.2). Aircraft noise has also been
disease and 12 000 premature
countries. associated with a decrease in children’s
deaths are estimated to occur cognitive performance in schools that
Exposure to environmental noise is annually due to long‑term are affected by flight paths. As a result,
associated with an increased risk of exposure to noise pollution. it is estimated that around 12 500
negative physiological and psychological children in Europe aged 7-17 years old
health outcomes. Widespread exposure have a reading impairment as a result
to noise from transport (road traffic, of exposure to aircraft noise.
railway and aircraft) is of major concern,
affecting the health and well-being of In terms of the individual noise
millions of people in Europe. In particular, of noise mapping (EEA, 2019a), sources, road traffic noise, as the most
long‑term exposure to environmental around 22 million adults living in prevalent source of environmental
noise can lead to a number of adverse agglomerations or near major sources noise, not surprisingly has the
health outcomes such as annoyance, with noise levels of 55 dB Lden or more largest contribution to the burden of
sleep disturbance, negative effects on the are estimated to be highly annoyed by disease due to noise (75 %) followed
cardiovascular and metabolic systems, noise from road traffic, railways, aircraft by railways (20 %), aircraft (4 %) and
and cognitive impairment in children. and industry. Moreover, it is estimated industry (0.5 %). The major part of
Sleep disturbance and annoyance, mostly that 6.5 million adults suffer high sleep the burden of disease, including
related to road traffic noise, are the most disturbance due to night-time noise annoyance, sleep disturbance, heart
prevalent effects (Jarosińska et al., 2018). levels of 50 dB Lnight or more. Exposure disease and cognitive impairment due
to environmental noise from road to noise, occurs inside urban areas
Based on the latest health impact traffic, railways, aircraft and industry of more than 100 000 inhabitants
assessment of the 2017 round contributes every year to about 48 000 (EEA, 2019a).

PART 2
FIGURE 11.4 Outlook for 2020 and 2030, EU-28
Number of people exposed to Lden ≥ 55 dB (millions) and estimated percentage change, 2017-2030

83.6 84.3
78.2 +7.8
35.6
32.0
30.6
+16.4
10.3 11.0 11.6 +11.8 10.7 11.1 11.6

+8.7
3.0 3.1 3.0

-0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0
0.7 0.5 -39.6 -3.0
20
30
30
17
20
30
17
20
30
17
20
30
17
20
30
17
20
17
20
17
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Estimated percentage change, 2017-2030

Source: ETC/ATNI (2019a).
Instead of just assessing the number affected at lower noise levels than those are people affected by noise that are
of premature deaths, the WHO (2011) specified under the END (WHO, 2018). not accounted for in the estimations
developed methods to quantify the Currently, there is a lack of data on presented. Although not recently
burden of disease from environmental the number of people exposed below quantified, the associated loss to the
noise using disability-adjusted life-years 55 dB Lden and 50 dB Lnight, meaning population’s health due to noise has an
(DALYs), which combine years of life lost that the health impact of noise is likely economic impact in Europe. Monetary
due to premature mortality and years to be greater than that presented costs can also be related to reduced
of life lost due to time lived in any state in this assessment. Moreover, END house prices, loss of working days and
of less than full health. The DALYs lost data do not cover the full territory reduced potential to develop land for
due to noise-induced health outcomes within countries, and therefore there certain uses (EC, 2000).
were estimated to be equivalent to
437 000 years for sleep disturbance, Noise outlooks for 2020 and 2030
453 000 years for annoyance, have been projected using current
156 000 years for cardiovascular heart information on transport and urban
disease and 75 years for cognitive trends (ETC/ATNI, 2019a) and have
impairment in children (EEA, 2019a). considerable uncertainty, as they are
based primarily on forecast increases in
However, the effects presented here
12 500 school children traffic and on various policy objectives.
may be underestimated, as new may suffer learning impairment
scientific evidence (see Box 11.1) shows due to aircraft noise. The outlook shows that it is unlikely that
that health and well-being can be noise pollution will decrease significantly

PART 2
TABLE 11.3 Summary assessment — population exposure to environmental noise and impacts on human health
Past trends The overall number of people exposed to high levels of noise remained rather stable between 2012 and
(10-15 years) 2017, with the exception of railway noise outside urban areas for which a significant increase occurred.
More than one fifth of the population is exposed to high levels of noise likely to have adverse effects on
health. Noise remains a major environmental health problem in Europe, causing around 12 000 premature
deaths each year.
Outlook to 2030 By 2030, projected estimates show an increase in the number of people affected by noise from the most
prevalent sources (e.g. road and rail). Exposure to air traffic noise is projected to remain relatively stable.
2020 Europe is not on track to meet the Seventh Environment Action Programme objective of significantly reducing
noise pollution by 2020. Efforts to reduce noise are being offset by an increase in the numbers of people living
 in urban areas and increases in traffic. Effective action plans to manage and reduce noise are needed.
Robustness The assessment is based on reported and gap-filled noise data from the 33 EEA member countries. The data
in this report are based on a data set for 2012 that is approximately 92 % complete and a data set for 2017
that is 66 % complete. A gap-filling exercise was carried out to complete the noise data that were not reported.
This introduces some uncertainties into the assessment. There are also some comparability issues between
the first and the subsequent rounds of noise mapping due to the use of different assessment methods. The
health impacts are calculated using the World Health Organization 2018 Environmental noise guidelines for
the European region. The outlook depends on predictions of traffic growth and future policy objectives, and
therefore there are considerable uncertainties.
by 2020, given that road and rail and air Noise outside urban areas will increase respectively), this scenario already takes
transport traffic is forecast to increase, by 2030, in particular for road and rail into account measures to be taken on
as is the number of inhabitants living in traffic, due to an anticipated increase in silent brake retrofitting of freight trains
urban areas. As a result, it is likely that the number of passenger and freight road (ERA, 2018).
the health impacts of environmental and rail vehicles. Although railway noise
noise will be more widespread by 2020 inside and outside urban areas presents a Aviation noise will stabilise only if all the
(Figure 11.4). considerable increase in terms of number anticipated technology improvements
of people exposed (i.e. 12 % and 9 %, stated in the European aviation
In the longer term, even if targets for environmental report are met by 2030.
switching to electric vehicles in cities Even if the number of flight movements
are met, as outlined in the White Paper, is expected to increase, improvements
Roadmap to a single European transport in aircraft design could stabilise but
area: towards a competitive and resource not significantly reduce overall noise
efficient transport system (EC, 2011), the exposure by 2030 (EASA et al., 2016).
number of people exposed to road The noise contribution from industry
traffic noise inside urban areas is still inside urban areas is projected to
Europe is not on track to
set to increase by approximately 8 % in decrease. However, the number of
the period 2017-2030. If the objective
meet the 7th EAP objective people estimated to be exposed to
of halving conventionally fuelled cars in of significantly reducing noise industrial noise is already very small, and
urban areas by 2030 is not achieved, a pollution by 2020. overall the number of people impacted
higher increase can be expected. by this reduction is very low.

PART 2
11.3.2
BOX 11.3 Preservation of quiet areas Quiet areas protect wildlife
Effects of noise on wildlife ►See Table 11.4 and human health
but their designation
A lthough the focus of the
Environmental Noise Directive is on
Noise pollution comes from a variety of
sources and is widely present not only and protection are still
reducing the harmful effects of noise in the busiest urban environments but under development in Europe.
on human health, noise also affects also in natural environments. The END
wildlife. Whether in the terrestrial or recognises the need to preserve areas
the marine environment, many species of good acoustic environmental quality,
rely on acoustic communication for referred as ‘quiet areas’, to protect the
important aspects of life, such as finding European soundscape. Quiet areas offer Cork, Dublin, Hamburg, Lausanne,
food or locating a mate. Anthropogenic reduced sound levels from traffic and Munich and Zurich experienced a
noise can potentially interfere with these provide a respite from environmental significant increase in areas considered
functions and thus adversely affect stress and opportunities for rest and to be potentially ‘quiet’, others, such as
diversity of species, population size and relaxation. Apart from the physical and Vilnius, Valletta, Prague, Copenhagen,
population distribution. mental health benefits for humans, quiet Cologne or Dusseldorf, experienced a
areas are also important for animals loss of quiet areas (Figure 11.5). The
One of the most studied effects of (Box 11.3). increase in quiet areas was mainly in
anthropogenic noise on wildlife is its residential areas while the loss was due
impact on the singing behaviour of birds Although the data reported as part to a decrease in green and ‘blue’ space.
(Gil and Brumm, 2013). A study in the of the END currently contain little Although the reason for these results
forest near Tegel airport in the city of information on how the countries, is not known, local noise action plans,
Berlin found that some songbird species regions and cities define and protect nature conservation plans and measures
started their dawn song earlier than the quiet areas in their territories, there are related to urban planning can have an
same species singing in a nearby forest indications showing an improvement in effect on gains or losses of quiet areas
that was less affected by aircraft noise the definition and designation of quiet in urban settings. However, a change in
(Dominoni et al., 2016). The authors of areas in recent years (EC, 2017; Peris the modelling methodologies used for
the study concluded that the birds in et al., 2019). Most countries have criteria traffic could also lead to changes that
the vicinity of the airport started singing in place to define quiet areas, mainly in are not strictly related to an increase or
earlier in the morning to gain more time urban areas. Quiet areas in cities vary in decrease in noise.
for uninterrupted singing before the their characteristics, such as noise levels,
aircraft noise set in. In addition, it was size of the area and land cover type.
found that during the day, chaffinches However, to date not all of the countries 11.4
avoided singing during aircraft take‑off that have a definition of quiet areas Responses and prospects of
when the noise exceeded a certain in place have designated such areas. meeting agreed targets and
threshold, 78 dB(A), further suggesting Currently, there are at least 15 countries objectives
that airport noise can impair acoustic that have designated some quiet areas
communication in birds. ■ in their territories (ETC/ATNI, 2019c). 11.4.1
Assessment of policies, and
There are currently no data on whether prospects for reaching policy targets
quiet areas in Europe have increased or and objectives
decreased. However, considering their
beneficial health effects, it is important Population exposure to
to identify potential quiet areas in environmental noise and impact on
places with high population density human health
(Shepherd et al., 2013). A combined
spatial assessment of noise exposure, Despite the substantial progress since
land use and land cover data for areas the END introduced data mapping and
potentially unaffected by noise pollution development of noise action plans, the
in selected cities from the EEA-33 shows Directive remains not fully implemented.
a mixed picture (ETC/ATNI, 2019c). While For example, noise exposure data from
some cities, such as Aalborg, Aarhus, the 2012 and 2017 rounds of noise

PART 2
FIGURE 11.5 Change in quiet areas between 2012 and 2017 in selected cities
Aalborg
Aarhus
Bern
Copenhagen
Cork
Dublin
Düsseldorf
Hamburg
Cologne
Lausanne
Munich
Prague
Valletta
Vilnius
Zürich
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 0 5 10 15 20
% Loss of potential quiet areas % Gain of potential quiet areas
Note: The city selection was based on the availability of noise data for 2012 and 2017 for all sources. There may be comparability issues
between cities due to a lack of a common assessment method.
Source: ETC/ATNI (2019c).
TABLE 11.4 Summary assessment — preservation of quiet areas
Past trends Progress has been made in developing definitions of quiet areas as well as in defining selection criteria
(10-15 years) for designating them. However, the designation and protection of quiet areas is underdeveloped. There
is variability between cities in terms of gains and losses of potentially quiet areas.
Outlook to 2030 Further progress is expected as current legislation, which obliges countries to protect areas of good acoustic
quality, is likely to increase the number of action plans designated to protect quiet areas.
2020 The designation and protection of quiet areas in Europe is still under development. There is not a complete
 designation of quiet areas in countries, and areas identified as quiet are not always protected through
action plans.
Robustness This assessment is based on both data reported by EEA member countries, using a questionnaire on the
status of the definition, designation and protection of quiet areas, and on an analysis of land cover data and
noise data in urban areas in selected cities for which data are available.

PART 2
mapping are still incomplete, with improvements stated in the European adopted, the benefits have outweighed
only approximately 92 % and 66 %, aviation environmental report (EASA the costs. However, in the 2017
respectively, of the expected data having et al., 2016) are met by 2030. evaluation of the END, the completeness
been reported. In the 2007, 2012 and of action plans was low, with less than
2017 rounds of noise mapping, there Achieving the 7th EAP objectives of 50 % of required action plans completed
was no common method for mapping in reducing the impacts of noise on people for the second round of noise mapping
place. Therefore, countries may have used would have required more effective in 2012 (EC, 2017).
different assessment methods across the development and implementation of
years. These inconsistencies in the quality noise action plans in areas of concern. It is yet to be seen how national and local
and quantity of reported data make the Although action plans in accordance authorities will respond to the recent
noise situation across Europe difficult with the END should have been drawn introduction of the Environmental noise
to assess. However, there are prospects up for the major transport sources guidelines for the European region (WHO,
for improvement. The EU has developed and the largest urban areas, there is a 2018), which show that levels below
a common method for noise mapping large proportion of countries for which 55 dB Lden and 50 dB Lnight are likely to
(EC, 2019). As a result, it is expected such plans are missing (EC, 2019). The cause health problems. At the moment,
that noise mapping assessments will be 7th EAP states that noise reduction noise reporting and delivering action
harmonised, making it easier to compare should be achieved by implementing plans to combat noise levels below
data across countries. measures to reduce noise at the source, the aforementioned END thresholds
including improvements in urban remains voluntary for countries. National
A considerable number of people are design (Box 11.4). Data on action plans and local noise action plans targeted
still exposed to high noise levels. Despite submitted by countries under the END at levels lower than those outlined
the efforts to achieve a significant show that noise reduction at the source in the END could potentially lead to
reduction in noise pollution, through the (e.g. improving road and rail surfaces, reduced environmental noise levels and
implementation of the END and other air traffic management, reducing speed subsequent benefits for health.
EU noise-related regulations, the overall limits, retrofitting, managing traffic flows)
number of people exposed to high levels is an extensively reported mitigation
of noise remained rather stable between measure for all sources of noise inside Preservation of quiet areas
2012 and 2017. Therefore, the objective and outside urban areas (EEA, 2017).
of the 7th EAP — to significantly reduce Land use and urban planning, which There is a need to preserve areas of good
noise pollution in the EU and move closer are linked to city design (e.g. protecting acoustic quality, namely quiet or tranquil
to WHO recommended levels by 2020 sensitive receivers using street design areas. Noise policy objectives specified
— will not be achieved. What is more, in and providing quiet zones) are also in the 7th EAP can only be achieved if
the light of projections of urban growth reported for all noise sources but measures are taken to reduce exposure
in Europe and an increased demand for represent a small percentage of the to high noise levels, which also implies
transport, an increase in the population mitigation measures generally chosen to preserving areas that are currently
exposed to environmental noise is address noise problems. Other less cost- undisturbed by noise. If areas of good
anticipated by 2020. Similarly, the longer effective mitigation measures employed sound quality are neglected or ignored,
term outlook is not encouraging. For to manage noise are those related to the more people may become exposed
example, even if the objectives outlined path of the noise, such as introducing to noise. Likewise, the number of
in the 2011 White Paper, Roadmap to a noise barriers, or those related to potentially restorative spaces, including
single European transport area: towards a the receiver, such as providing home parks or quiet urban quarters, could also
competitive and resource efficient transport insulation. decrease, resulting in a negative impact
system, of halving conventionally fuelled on well-being.
cars in urban areas by 2030 are achieved, The implementation of such action
the number of people exposed to road plans by countries has proven to be Regarding the END, action plans that
noise, the most prevalent source, is cost-effective. The fitness check on the aim to identify and protect quiet areas
set to increase. Likewise, it is likely that implementation of the END concluded within the strategic noise mapping
noise outside urban areas will increase that the Directive has not yet achieved process enable competent authorities
by 2030, in particular for road and rail its full potential, although estimations to control the sound quality within
traffic, due to an increase in the number show a favourable cost-benefit ratio of them. However, the END does not
of passenger and freight road and rail 1:29 (EC, 2017). In other words, in cases provide a clear definition of quiet areas,
vehicles. Aviation noise will be stabilised in which action plans including measures leaving countries ample opportunity
only if the anticipated technology for noise management have been for interpretation. Therefore, practical

PART 2
BOX 11.4 Implementation of noise action plans in Berlin: a success story
T he use of the noise maps in

accordance with the Environmental
Noise Directive (END) helped many
exposed to night-time noise levels
considered harmful to health. As a
result of these data, and in line with
space for bicycle lanes and pedestrian
islands (Figure 11.6). Pilot projects
were implemented in four main road
cities in Europe detect high noise zones. the END, noise action plans were sections used by approximately 20 000
Berlin, like many other urban areas, is implemented. The mitigation measures motor vehicles per day.
affected by noise pollution, in particular consisted of reducing or narrowing
from road traffic. the roadway to decrease the traffic Implementing noise reduction measures
levels and concentrate traffic in the by redesigning roadways helped to
During the first round of noise middle of the roadway, moving it significantly reduce the number of
mapping in 2007, Berlin found that a away from buildings. The traffic area people exposed to night-time noise
considerable number of people were released by this measure provided levels of 50 dB or higher (Table 11.5). ■
FIGURE 11.6 Redesign of roadways in Berlin to reduce traffic noise: before and after
Before re-design Today

Central reservation
Crossing facility
Bycicle lane
Bycicle lane
Pavement
Pavement
Pavement
Pavement
Parking
Parking
Parking
Parking
Lane
Lane
Lane
Lane
Lane
Lane
Source: Senate Department of Berlin/LK Argus GmbH.
TABLE 11.5 Night-time noise levels in Berlin, 2007 and 2012
Number Lnight dB(A)

of people
>50-55 >55-60 >60-65 >65-70 >70
2007 183 000 146 000 135 300 56 300 1 400
2012 168 200 150 100 121 600 24 300 300
guidance in this area needs to be further an increase in measures to protect given that a quiet area can also be one
developed (EC, 2017) to allow countries quiet areas may be expected in the with a pleasant soundscape, in cities
to fully integrate the protection of future (ETC/ATNI, 2019c). Areas of good quiet areas could also be protected
quiet areas into their action plans. acoustic quality can be preserved by by enhancing positive sounds such as
Countries have indicated that this is implementing measures similar to those from natural features (Matsinos
an area under development, and so those used to reduce noise. Moreover, et al., 2017) (Chapter 17).

12.
Industrial
pollution
2
© Simeon Lazarov, Environment&Me/EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Key messages
• Industry contributes significantly to • The impacts and costs of pollution
the emissions of many pollutants and from industry to the environment and
greenhouse gases into the European human health remain high. Existing
environment. Releases of pollutants policy instruments are expected to
by European industry have generally lead to further reductions in industrial
decreased during the last decade and emissions but current policies do not
are expected to continue to do so. address the full scope of the industrial
pollution load to the environment.
• Environmental policy has been the
main driver of reductions in industrial • Decarbonisation of industry
emissions in the past decade, especially stimulated by climate change
for emissions to air for which the mitigation policies is expected to
reductions are larger than those for be the main driver of reductions in
emissions to water. industrial air pollutant and greenhouse
gas emissions in the medium and
• However only emissions of long term. However there is clear
historically important pollutants are scope for further integration of
reported by industry, and information environmental objectives into the EU’s
on emerging pollutants is lacking. A industrial policy.
lack of robust data does not allow
assessment of progress towards overall
clean production processes.

objectives/targets
Pollutant emissions from industry Improving trends Developments show a

 Partly on track
dominate mixed picture
Clean industrial technologies Improving trends Developments show a

 Partly on track
and processes dominate mixed picture
4 par A
PART 2
12.
Industrial pollution
12.1 2019g), reported under the European

Scope of the theme Monitoring Mechanism Regulation
(MMR; EU/ 525/2013).
Industry is a key component of Europe’s
economy and plays a significant role The assessment covers a range of
in society’s economic well-being. It Industry contributes key industrial air pollutants and
accounts for 17.6 % of gross domestic GHGs, namely those reported to the
significantly to pollutant
product (GDP) (Eurostat, 2018b) and E-PRTR between 2007 and 2011 by at
directly employs 36 million people
emissions into Europe’s least 5 % of all the facilities in each
(Eurostat, 2018a) in the 28 EU Member environment. industrial sector (see Section 12.3.1
States (EU-28). At the same time, and Figure 12.3). Emissions of
industrial activities are a source of GHGs contribute to climate change
pressure on the environment in the (Chapter 7), while air pollutants have
form of emissions to the atmosphere various health and environmental
and water ecosystems, generating impacts (Chapter 8).
waste and consuming resources. This heavy industry (ferrous and non-ferrous
chapter assesses the trends in and metal processing, extractive industry) All reported substances released to
outlooks for these pressures as well and light industry (food and drink, pulp, water are taken into account rather
as the progress towards implementing paper and wood, other manufacturing). than choosing specific key pollutants
clean industrial technologies and (see Section 12.3.1 and Figure 12.5).
processes. The European Pollutant Release The various pollutants in the
and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) overarching pollutant groups can have
This assessment addresses the energy (EEA, 2019h) is the main data source a variety of impacts (Chapters 4 and 6).
supply, extractive and manufacturing for this chapter. It is supplemented Persistent and mobile substances that
industry sectors as well as waste and by the Large Combustion Plant (LCP) cannot be removed by waste water
waste water management. Please refer inventory (EEA, 2018c), the data treatment plants are covered in more
to the EEA’s recent work on mapping reported under the Convention detail in Chapter 10.
emission inventories for more details on Long-Range Transboundary Air
(EEA, 2018b). Here, the extractive and Pollution (CLRTAP) (EEA, 2019f), and the More details on sources as well as the
manufacturing sectors are grouped into Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory (EEA, potential health and environmental
SOER 2020/Industrial pollution 271

PART 2
TABLE 12.1 Selected policy objectives and targets
Industrial Pollution
‘…to prevent or, where that is not practicable, to IED (EU, 2010) Permanent Binding legislation
reduce emissions into air, water and land and
to prevent the generation of waste, in order
to achieve a high level of protection of the
environment taken as a whole’
‘By 2020, […] significantly reduce [the release SDG 12.4 (UN, 2015) 2020 Non-binding
of chemicals] to air, water and soil in order commitment
to minimize their adverse impacts on human
health and the environment’
‘By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit SDG 9.4 (UN, 2015) 2030 Non-binding
industries to make them sustainable, with commitment
increased resource-use efficiency and greater
adoption of clean and environmentally sound
technologies and industrial processes…’
‘…uptake by industry of best available 7th EAP (EC, 2013) 2020 Non-binding
techniques and emerging innovations…’ commitment
Increase resource efficiency of industry IED (EU, 2010) N/A Non-binding

commitment
Note: 7th EAP, Seventh Environment Action Programme; N/A, non-applicable.
impacts of the pollutants covered are detail in Chapter 9. In addition, the EEA established in other policy themes.
also available on the E-PRTR website (1). indicator ‘Industrial waste in Europe’ Today, examples of this include:
provides additional information (EEA,
Not all pollutants released into the 2019d). Industrial pollutant releases to • national pollutant emission ceilings
environment by industry are monitored land (see Chapter 5) and the resulting established by the National Emission
or reported, which limits the scope soil contamination, industrial waste (see Ceiling (NEC) Directive (2016/2284/EU;
of this chapter. For example, more Chapter 9) and industrial accidents are Chapter 8);
than 22 600 chemical substances not covered in this chapter either.
are registered for use under the • the binding commitment to achieve
Regulation on registration, evaluation, good ecological and chemical status of
authorisation and restriction of 12.2 all water bodies in Europe in accordance
chemicals (REACH Regulation; Policy landscape with the Water Framework Directive (WFD,
(EC) No 1907/2006; ECHA, 2019), 2000/60/EC) as well as the requirement
while the European industrial policy Regulation of industrial pollution in the to treat urban waste water under the
requires regular emission reporting EU started in the 1970s, addressing Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive
of only 91 specific pollutants. REACH especially transboundary air pollution (UWWTD; 91/271/EEC; Chapter 4);
and other legislation governing the and aiming to ensure a level playing
use and placing on the market of field in the EU internal market (Hey, • climate change mitigation policy
chemicals are addressed elsewhere 2005). Even at that time, European objectives and targets, for example
(Chapter 10). Likewise, the resource industrial pollution policy was in many in the EU 2020 climate and energy
efficiency of industry is assessed in ways designed to support objectives package (EC, 2009), the EU 2030 climate
(1) https://prtr.eea.europa.eu/#/home
272 SOER 2020/Industrial pollution

PART 2
FIGURE 12.1 Air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions as a percentage of total EEA-33 pollutant emissions
in 2017, by sector
Total greenhouse gases
Heavy metals
Nitrous oxides
Sulphur oxides
Non-methane volatile organic

compounds
Particulate matter (PM10)
Particulate matter (PM2.5)
Carbon monoxide
Ammonia
0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Agriculture Residential, commercial and institutional Road transport Non-road transport

Energy supply Heavy industry Light industry Chemicals Waste management Other
Notes: Heavy metals include arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc and are aggregated by mass. Only those air
pollutants covered by the CLRTAP are included.
Sources: EEA (2019g) for total GHGs and EEA (2019f) for air pollutants.
and energy framework (EC, 2014) or monitor progress regarding industrial separately by the EU emissions trading
the European Commission long-term pollutant emissions and to give the public system (EU ETS; Directive 2003/87/EC)
strategy for a climate neutral economy access to these environmental data, the (see Chapter 7).
(EC, 2018) (Chapter 7); EU established the E-PRTR via the E-PRTR
Regulation (EC) No 166/2006). The IED to-
• the policy framework provided date does not cover all industrial activities 12.3
by the EU circular economy action such as mining and quarrying (which is Key trends and outlooks
plan (EC, 2015), which also relies on covered by the E-PRTR).
sectoral policies to achieve widespread 12.3.1
implementation (Chapter 9). Table 12.1 summarises the most Pollutant emissions from industry
important policy objectives and targets ►See Table 12.2
The Industrial Emissions Directive that relate specifically to industrial
(IED; 2010/75/EU) contributes towards pollution. The EU’s overarching industry Contribution of industry to air
achieving many of these and other policy policy, which covers everything from emissions
objectives and forms the centrepiece access to markets, competitiveness and
of industrial pollution policy. The IED is cybersecurity to circularity and the low- Industry was responsible for more
designed to take the entire environmental carbon economy is also of relevance (EC, than one quarter of nitrogen oxide
performance of industrial installations 2017). The United Nations Sustainable (NOx), particulate matter (here as
into account and introduces a mechanism Development Goals (SDGs; UN, 2015) also particles ≤ 10 µm, PM10) and carbon
that identifies the most cost-effective address industrial pollution, for example monoxide (CO) emissions and more
means of achieving emission reductions via SDG target 9.4 and 12.4. than half of total GHG, sulphur oxide
for a host of different industrial activities (SOx) and non‑methane volatile organic
(so-called best available techniques; Greenhouse gas emissions from industry compound (NMVOC) emissions in 2017
see also Section 12.3.2). In order to on the other hand are addressed (Figure 12.1). The relative importance

PART 2
BOX 12.1 Success in reducing sulphur dioxide emissions across the EU-28
T he acidifying characteristics of
sulphur dioxide (SO2) (as well
as other pollutants such as NOx) led
contributing the most to total emissions
in the EU: coal burning in power plants.
such as Finland, Slovenia, Germany,
Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria,
managed to reduce their already low
to the well-known environmental Figure 12.2 shows SO2 emissions per emission factors further.
problem of ‘acid rain’, which resulted in unit of solid fuel (mostly coal) burned
acidification of soils and freshwaters, (a so-called ‘implied emission factor’) Further significant reductions in
losses of fish stocks and harm to for those EU Member States that have emission factors between 2010 and
forests across many parts of Europe. such power plants. The requirements 2015 in Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia,
This problem was first addressed of the LCP Directive came into force in Greece, France and Italy are likely to be
through policy during the 1970s and 2008 and their effect on SO2 emissions linked to new stipulations coming into
80s by the United Nations Economic is clearly visible in the decrease in the force under the Industrial Emissions
Commission for Europe Convention emission factor between 2005 and 2010. Directive (IED; 2010/75/EU) in 2016.
on Long-range transboundary Air Countries with high emission factors in
Pollution, CLRTAP (UNECE, 1979) and 2005, namely Bulgaria, Romania, Spain, New, binding and more ambitious emission
the first and second sulphur protocols. Greece and Portugal, all experienced a limits were adopted in 2017 under the
The 1999 Gothenburg Protocol under sharp decline during that time (between IED and will need to be reflected in
CLRTAP and the corresponding EU -92 % in Portugal and -36 % in Romania). permits by 2021 at the latest. This is
National Emission Ceilings Directive later more closely examined in Section 12.4.1
introduced binding emission ceilings for Countries with medium-high emission and in an EEA briefing (EEA, 2019a). The
four key pollutants including SO2. The factors for SO2 — such as Poland, environmental performance of power
Large Combustion Plant (LCP) Directive Belgium, Ireland and Italy — also plants can be tracked via the EEA indicator
(2001/80/EC) on the other hand aimed to achieved significant reductions by 2010. on emissions from large combustion
address SO2 emissions from the activity In addition, even the best performers, plants (EEA, 2017a). ■
Sources: UNECE (1979); EEA (2017a, 2018c, 2019c).
of each subsector in the context of and steel manufacturing or cement

pollutant emissions has not changed production. Activities during which
significantly since 2007 (EEA, 2019f, dust is generated also contribute to air
2019g). emissions of, for example, particulate
matter. Solvent use (e.g. during metal
In 2017, over half of CO2 Emissions to air are often associated processing or chemical production) may
emissions came from industry. with the combustion of fossil fuels, lead to emissions of NMVOCs among
which may, for example, result in others.
emissions of SOx, NOx, PM10, heavy
metals including mercury and GHGs
such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and Industrial air emission trends
nitrous oxide (N2O). This obviously
applies to power plants but also to Reported air emissions from industry
many other industrial activities that decreased for all key air pollutants
may have their own electricity or and GHGs in the respective industrial
heat production on site, such as iron sectors over the decade leading up

PART 2
FIGURE 12.2 Implied emission factors (IEFs) for SO2 emissions from power plants burning predominantly solid
fuel in 2005, 2010 and 2015, EU-28
IEF (emissions per unit fuel burned)
Tonnes per terajoule
4 0.5
0.4
3 0.3
0.2
2 0.1
0.0
nd
ce
nd
ly
ry
ia
ria
nd
an
ar
hi
an
Ita
en
ga
iu
do
an
st
la
la
ec
m
m
rla
nl
lg
ov
un
Po
Ire
Au
ng
Fr
en
Cz
Be
er
Fi
he
Sl
H
Ki
et
d
N
te
ni
U
0
ia
ia
ia
al
nd
ce
nd
ly
ry
ia
ria
nd
an
ar
ni
hi
ec
an
ai
Ita
ar
an
ak
ug
en
ga
iu
do
an
st
la
la
Sp
to
ec
m
re
rla
lg
nl
lg
ov
rt
m
ov
un
Po
Ire
Au
ng
Fr
Es
en
Cz
G
Bu
Be
er
Fi
Po
Ro
he
Sl
Sl
H
Ki
D
et
d
N
te
ni
2005 2010 2015

U
Note: Countries listed according to their 2005 rank. Includes only power plants for which solid fuel constitutes more than 95 % of fuel input.
Countries that do not feature have no such power plants. No 2005 and 2010 data available for Sweden and Croatia. United Kingdom
value for 2005 replaced by first reported value from 2007. Slovakia value for 2015 replaced by 2016 value to account for maintenance
work at largest Slovakian coal power plant.
Source: EEA, 2017a
to 2017. Overall SOx emissions have by-products of coal burning, heavy The reduction in methane emissions from
declined by 54 % since 2007, NOx by metals (arsenic, mercury, nickel and the waste management sector reflects the
more than one third and emissions zinc) and to a lesser extent GHGs and decrease in the number of landfill sites
of GHGs from industry by 12 % CO. NMVOC and benzene emissions in operation (Eurostat, 2018c) and waste
(Figure 12.3). largely associated with refineries in the being landfilled (Chapter 9) as well as the
energy supply sector have also been improvements in recovering methane
Each of the industry sectors has seen reduced, albeit less significantly. from these sites (EEA, 2019a).
reductions in emissions of its main
pollutants. Emissions of pollutants Key pollutants in heavy industry also Air pollution and its effects on the
from power plants in the energy tend to relate to fossil fuel combustion environment and humans are addressed
supply sector have all decreased since and were all reduced including zinc (by in detail in Chapter 8 and industry’s
2007, especially for SOx, PM10 (by 80 % almost two thirds), and SOx and NOx role in climate change mitigation in
each) and NOx (by about half). Other (by around half). In the chemical sector, Chapter 7. It should be noted that
emissions were also reduced including both NMVOC (associated with solvent releases of many emerging air pollutants
fluorine (as hydrogen fluoride) and use) and NOx emissions dropped are currently not monitored. Chapter 10
chlorine (as hydrogen chloride), both significantly but CO2 emissions less so. explores this issue in more depth.

PART 2
FIGURE 12.3 Emissions of key industrial air pollutants and GHGs for the EEA-33, 2007-2017, by industry sector
Energy supply Heavy industry

Index (2017=1) Index (2017=1)
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CO2, CH4, N2O (CO2e) NMVOC Benzene NOx/NO2 CO2 Zn SOx /SO2 NOx/NO2 CO
As, Hg, Ni, Zn CO HCl PM10
SOx /SO2 HF
Light industry Chemicals

Index (2017=1) Index (2017=1)
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NMVOC CO2, HCFCs (CO2e) NOx/NO2 NMVOC
Waste management Total industry

Index (2017=1) Index (2017=1)
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CH 4 CO2, CH4 (CO2e) NOx/NO2 SOx /SO2
Notes: The E-PRTR does not contain data for Turkey. As, arsenic; CH4, methane; CO, carbon monoxide; CO2e, carbon dioxide equivalent;
HF, hydrogen fluoride; Hg, mercury; Ni, nickel; NMVOC, non-methane volatile organic compounds; NO2, nitrogen dioxide; N2O, nitrous
oxide; NOx, nitrogen oxides; PM10, particulate matter; SO2, sulphur dioxide; SOx, sulphur oxides; Zn, zinc.
Source: EEA (2019h).
Contribution of industry to water manufacturing to clean equipment

Information is lacking on emissions between batches. In many cases this
results in waste water that is later
emerging pollutants,
There are a host of industrial activities returned to the environment, often after
as industry only reports that use water, for example for the undergoing treatment.
on emissions of pollutants generation of steam in power plants,
of historic importance. in scrubbers to remove pollutants Recent national assessments suggest
from combustion gases or during that 18 % of surface water bodies

PART 2
BOX 12.2 Understanding industrial releases of waste water
D irect releases to water by

industry often require on-site
treatment (Figure 12.4) but may also
FIGURE 12.4 Direct releases by industry versus transfers to waste water
treatment plants
be possible without any treatment

Freshwater catchment
if the waste water is benign to the
receiving water body (e.g. waste water
Drinking water
from process cooling). In many cases, treatment
Industrial
industry transfers waste water to plant Urban
urban waste water treatment plants agglomeration
(UWWTPs). These are in turn not
the original source of pollution and
simply end up releasing part of the
On-site industrial
pollutant load post-treatment (here
waste water
referred to as indirect releases to the treatment plant
environment). It is also important
Urban waste water
to note that UWWTPs receive waste treatment plant
water that may contain pollutants Transfer
Direct release
from other non-industrial sources, from UWWTP
including commercial activities and
households. ■
Direct release Industrial indirect release
in the EU-28 countries are affected polybrominated diphenyl ethers and
18 %
by chemical pollution from point polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
sources (EEA, 2018a). More specifically, Regarding surface waters, these
chemical releases from urban waste substances are largely linked to past
water treatment plants (UWWTPs) industrial activity (e.g. atmospheric
are reported as a pressure for 12 % of surface water bodies in the deposition of mercury), and for ground
and releases from industry for 5 % of water they are linked to past mining
EU are affected by chemical
these water bodies. Industry therefore activity and seepage from contaminated
contributes to the poor ecological status
pollution from point sources. industrial sites (see also EEA, 2018a).
of European waters but to a lesser degree
than other diffuse sources (Chapter 4).
Box 12.2 explains industrial releases Industrial water emission trends
of waste water. The implementation of
waste water treatment can be tracked via to these pressures by industry sectors Reported direct releases of pollutants by
the EEA indicator on urban waste water (see next section below). industry in the EEA-33 have decreased
treatment (EEA, 2017b). (slightly or more significantly) since
Failure to achieve good chemical 2007 for most pollutant groups, while
Data in the E-PRTR (EEA, 2019h) allow an status (Chapter 4), however, is linked indirect releases (i.e. transfers from
assessment of the relative contribution to legacy pollution with mercury, industry to UWWTPs) have marginally

PART 2
FIGURE 12.5 Total pollutant emissions to water and transfers to UWWTPs by industry for the EEA-33, 2007-2017,
by pollutant group
Direct releases by industry Direct releases by UWWTPs

Index (2017=1) Index (2017=1)
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Indirect releases by industry Total reported releases (%)

Index (2017=1) 80
75
3 70
60
2 50
42 44
40 40
35 36 34
30 25
1 22 22
20 19
10 7
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Chorinated organic Heavy metals Inorganic Other organic
substances substances substances
Chlorinated organic substances Heavy metals
Direct releases by industry Direct releases by UWWTPs
Inorganic substances Other organic substances
Indirect releases by industry
Notes: The E-PRTR does not contain data for Turkey. Trends are in some cases strongly influenced by releases reported by individual facilities.
Source: EEA (2019h).
increased (EEA, 2019h). Findings from a environmental pressure. Chlorides,

recent report on industrial waste water for example, may exist at higher levels
(EEA, 2019e) are briefly summarised naturally and large releases (1) may
below and in Figure 12.5: merely be a result of that rather than
industrial processes and (2) may not
• Inorganic substances (and in There has been more have a negative impact on the ecosystem
particular nitrogen and phosphorus) progress in reducing industrial as a result.
account for the large majority of total
emissions to air than to water.
direct and indirect releases of pollutants • Chlorinated organic substances are
overall to surface waters (about 98 % of directly released largely by light industry
the total by mass). Chemical production (pulp, paper and wood in particular)
is responsible for more than half of followed by UWWTPs. They account for
direct inorganic chemical releases in also dominate indirect releases of less than 1 % of total direct releases by
recent years, followed by UWWTPs and inorganic substances. Releases (direct mass. Chemical production on the other
extractive industries (around 20 % each). or indirect) of these substances do hand is responsible for the majority of
Both chemicals and extractive industries not necessarily represent the largest indirect releases of these substances.

PART 2
BOX 12.3 The concept and development of best available techniques
T he concept of best available

techniques (BATs) dates back to
the Integrated Pollution Prevention
information on the techniques and
processes used in a specific industrial
sector in the EU, current emission
various elements that Member States
need to implement, such as limits
on emissions and other stipulations.
and Control Directive (IPPCD, 96/61/EC, and consumption (e.g. water, energy, This constitutes one of the major
replaced by the Industrial Emissions materials) trends, and techniques to improvements introduced through
Directive, IED, in 2010). It stipulated that consider for determining BATs, as the IED with a view to increasing the
industrial installations must be issued well as emerging techniques (see also uptake of clean and environmentally
with integrated permits that take into Evrard et al., 2016, for an analysis of sound technologies and processes.
account emissions to air, water and soil, the whole process). During the time BAT conclusions, however, also include
use of raw materials, energy efficiency, that the IPPCD was in force, Member benchmarks of expected environmental
site restoration, noise and prevention State authorities were able to set performance, for example ratios
of accidents. emission limit values and other permit between process inputs and outputs or
conditions that deviated from what was levels of expected waste generation for
To support authorities in Member recommended in these documents. This specific processes. An up-to-date list of
States in charge of issuing permits, flexibility resulted in notable differences the documents containing the emission
the European Commission created in the emission limits for comparable limit values and other reference values
the European Integrated Pollution industrial processes across the EU-28 for a host of different industrial activities
Prevention and Control Bureau with the (Entec, 2011). can be found on the website of the Joint
task of steering information exchange Research Centre (JRC, 2018).
on BAT. This information‑sharing To guarantee a level playing field and
system remains in place today. The harmonise the emission limits across Some EEA-33 countries go further and
bureau publishes comprehensive European industry, the more recent develop country-specific BATs. This is
reference documents (known as IED has since required the bureau the case in Estonia, where a BAT for
best available technique reference to draw up conclusions for each of the oil shale industry was developed
documents or BREFs) for specific these reference documents (the BAT to address one of the country’s main
industrial activities. They contain conclusions). These conclusions contain emitting sectors. ■
Sources: Entec (2011); Evrard et al. (2016); JRC (2018).
• Other organic substances account (DEHP, used, for example as softeners

for the second largest total of direct in plastic) and fluoranthene (a biomass In many cases, industry
releases (2 %) (2). They are directly combustion residue).
transfers waste water
released predominantly by UWWTPs
and light industry (especially pulp, • Direct releases of heavy metals
to urban waste water
paper and wood). Light industry and can largely be attributed to UWWTPs. treatment plants.
chemical production also indirectly E-PRTR data show that this is at least
release them. Toxic substances that in part the case because an amount
feature more prominently include of heavy metals of the same order of
phenols, nonylphenols and nonylphenol magnitude as total direct releases is
ethoxylates (NP/NPEs, used, for example, transferred to UWWTPs by industry.
in detergents), di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate Some of the prominent heavy metal
(2) Such releases include total organic compounds, which are in fact not pollutants per se but a measure of how much organic matter is being
released.

PART 2
© Andrzej Bochenski, Picture2050/EEA

PART 2
TABLE 12.2 Summary assessment — pollutant emissions from industry
Past trends Improving trends dominate, as industrial emissions to air and water have decreased in the past decade.
(10-15 years) There has been particular progress in reducing emissions to air related to energy supply and emissions
to water related to the metal production and processing sector. However, some industrial emissions
have increased, such as emissions to water of other organic substances by extractive industries. Overall,
progress has been more pronounced for air than for water.
Outlook to 2030 Continued progress is expected as implementation of current policies to mitigate industrial emissions
continues. Full implementation of policies is required to deliver improvements. Importantly, climate change
legislation will play an important role in driving further greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant releases from
industry. However, many emerging pollutants are often not adequately monitored but require increased
attention to address environmental and health risks.
2020 Europe is making progress towards the policy objective of significantly reducing emissions of pollutants.
Although current policies and measures are delivering pollution control, the release of hazardous chemicals
 to air and water remains problematic. Even though current policy addresses major pollutants and GHGs and
many industrial activities, the industrial pollution load to the environment is not covered entirely.
Robustness Information on industrial emissions comes from data reported by countries. These are only available for
a subset of industrial activities and for a limited number of pollutants. Emissions are often estimated or
calculated by industrial facility operators. Outlooks are based on a number of separate assessments in the
energy supply sector, which estimate future emissions and determine the impact of existing (and, therefore,
future) policy measures. The outlooks for water are qualitative in nature with greater uncertainties. The
assessment of outlooks and prospects of meeting policy objectives also rely on expert judgement.
emission trends are driven largely by hazardous substances under the

individual facilities. This is the case Water Framework Directive daughter Decarbonisation of industry
for releases from metal production Directive 2013/39/EU, such as dicofol (a is expected to be a major
and processing. The fact that a large pesticide related to DDT), quinoxyfen (a
driver of air pollutant
aluminium production site in France fungicide) and hexabromocyclododecane
installed abatement technology after (HBCDD, a brominated flame retardant). emission reductions.
2014 is clearly reflected in the overall These substances may be released to
downward trend in releases of heavy European waters by UWWTPs. Please
metals. The trend for heavy metals refer also to Chapters 4 and 10 for
in extractive industries is further further information.
dominated by a Polish mine. Similarly, The number of industrial installations
a large chemical works producing basic covered by best available technique
organic chemicals in Austria dominated 12.3.2 (BAT) reference documents (known as
European transfers of heavy metals to Clean industrial technologies BREFs) and their conclusions (Box 12.3)
UWWTPs during the period 2007-2009. and processes serves as a proxy to assess trends in
Non-industrial sources of heavy metals ►See Table 12.4 establishing clean technologies and
in water that may be sent to UWWTPs processes in industrial activities across
for treatment include run-off from The adoption of clean and Europe. Figure 12.6 shows that BREFs
roads as well as domestic waste water. environmentally sound technologies were developed for the most polluting
and processes features as an objective industrial activities between 2001
An unknown number of emerging water in both SDG 9 and the EU Seventh and 2007 (under the precursor to the
pollutants is currently not reported to Environment Action Programme IED, namely the Integrated Pollution
the E-PRTR. This includes some of the (7th EAP). This section assesses progress Prevention and Control Directive, IPPCD,
pollutants currently treated as priority with respect to this objective. 96/61/EC). These reference documents

PART 2
FIGURE 12.6 Estimated number of installations covered by the IED and by BAT conclusions
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total previously covered by IPPCD BREF
Total previously covered by IED BAT conclusions
2011
Iron and steel production (341)

2012
Manufacture of glass (462)
Cement, lime and magnesium oxide production (543)
2013 Tanning of hides and skins (42) Chlor-alkali production (75)
Refining of mineral oil and gas (245)
2014 Pulp, paper and board production (894)
2015 Wood-based panels production (115)
Non-ferrous metals industry (1 224)

2016 Chemicals waste water and waste gas treatment (1870)
Large volume organic chemicals production (3 140)
2017
Large combustion plants (2 806)
2018 Waste treatment (4 074)
Waste incineration (587)

2019 Food, drink and milk industries (2 812)
Surface treatment using organic solvents (1 116)
2020
Ferrous metals processing industry (3 641)
2021 Textiles industry (360)
Smitheries and foundries industry (1 588)

2022
Slaughterhouses and animal by-products industries (1 378)
2023 Ceramic manufacturing industry (1 605)
2024
2025
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000

Estimated number of IED installations
covered by BAT conclusions
Notes: This overview is based on data from an IPPCD implementation report and thus excludes installations in Croatia. Intensive rearing of
pigs and poultry is also excluded because of how industry is defined in Section 12.1. The number of installations for ‘Production of
chlor-alkali’ and ‘Wood-based panels production’ are based on the respective BREFs rather than the implementation report referenced
in the figure source line. Discrepancies arise because IPPCD and IED activities cannot be mapped entirely and various BAT conclusions
do not cover entire IED activities. There is also overlap in IED activities between different BAT conclusions. As of 2019, new reporting
requirements under the EU Registry on Industrial Sites will provide more accurate data in the near future. Estimates for dates in the
future are based on expert judgement.
Source: AMEC Foster Wheeler (2016b).

PART 2
TABLE 12.3 Examples of references to environmental performance other than emissions in BAT documents
developed under the IED
Area Activities Example measures
Energy efficiency Large combustion plants, cement Relevant BAT conclusions specify associated energy efficiency levels
production and production of milk (BAT-AEELs)
All IED activities Energy efficiency BREF: any industrial activity should include a minimum
standard of energy efficiency management, continuous environmental
improvement and a map of energy efficiency aspects in any given
installation as well as potential for improvement
Material use Sinter production (iron and steel Relevant BAT conclusions establish raw material versus product output
manufacturing), non-ferrous metal ratios
alloy production and recovery, and
paper-making
Production of chlor-alkali BREF bans mercury from the production process
Polymer production Polymer BREF establishes associated environmental performance levels

(BAT-AEPLs) for monomer consumption
Processing of crushed seeds or Food, drink and milk BAT conclusion establishes BAT-AEPLs for hexane
beans consumption
Waste generation Sinter production (iron and steel Relevant BAT conclusions provide amounts of waste typically produced per
manufacturing) and non-ferrous unit of production
metal alloy production
Polymer production Polymer BREF establishes BAT-AEPLs for the amounts of waste produced
Chlorine production Chlor-alkali BAT conclusion establishes BAT-AEPLs for sulphuric acid
residue per unit of chlorine produced
Refineries, tanning of hides and Relevant BAT conclusions provide recommended content of hazardous
skins, and cement production chemicals in final products and/or waste
Source: EEA, based on JRC (2018) and Ricardo Energy & Environment and VITO (2019).
will remain in place until they are revised environmental regulation but are
under the IED, when binding conclusions often tied to scheduled maintenance
are also added (Box 12.3). Most BREFs and technological upgrades that may
will have been revised by 2020 while have occurred regardless of whether
a few are only likely to be developed regulation is introduced or not (Ricardo
by 2025. Environmental policy has led Energy & Environment, 2018).
to reductions in industrial
Figure 12.6 clearly shows that there The environmental performance
emissions in the past decade.
is continued progress with respect benchmarks contained in various BAT
to establishing a regulatory push conclusions provide an important link
to improve the uptake of BATs by to resource efficiency (see also Ricardo
issuing permits to installations, at Energy & Environment and VITO (2019)).
least within the scope of industrial such regulation has improved the The circular economy package (EC, 2015;
activities covered by the IED. The environmental performance of Chapter 9) stipulates the incorporation
examples of large combustion plants, industry regarding pollutant emissions of guidance on energy and resource use
and iron and steel manufacturing in the past. However, decisions on into the BREFs and their conclusions.
installations presented in investment with respect to pollutant Table 12.3 presents selected examples.
Section 12.4.1 further show that abatement are not only driven by Such benchmarks are, however, currently

PART 2
TABLE 12.4 Summary assessment — clean industrial technologies and processes
Past trends An increasing number of industrial facilities are covered by emission limits and other environmental
(10-15 years) requirements. There is evidence that this has led to reductions in emissions of pollutants, but it is less
clear whether this has resulted in improvements in general environmental management in industry.
Outlook to 2030 Further progress is expected regarding the environmental performance of industry. By 2025 more stringent
best available technique (BAT) conclusions are expected to cover all industrial activities currently regulated
by the Industrial Emissions Directive. Industry’s transition to a low-carbon economy is predicted to contribute
further to emission reductions. However, uncertainties remain over whether general environmental
performance beyond air and water pollution abatement will be fully implemented and thus whether the
objective of implementing clean industrial technologies and processes can be achieved. Therefore, industrial
pollution is likely to continue to adversely impact human health and the environment.
2020 Europe is making good progress towards the policy objective of securing industry’s adoption of clean and
 environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes. Although these are delivering pollution control,
release of pollutants remains problematic.
Robustness The scope of the Industrial Emissions Directive is not all-inclusive and a number of industrial processes are
not covered. The number of installations covered by each BAT reference document and BAT conclusion is an
estimate based on reported data, which may be incomplete. The overarching objective of implementing clean
industrial technologies and processes is generic and does not provide a clear target. Therefore, the assessment
of past trends, outlooks and prospects of meeting policy objectives also relies on expert judgement.
not applied systematically or in a context of IED implementation reporting;

harmonised way across the EU, indicating Industrial pollution is likely AMEC Foster Wheeler, 2016a).
considerable potential for improvement
to continue to adversely
and also for contributing to the The European Commission reviews
circular economy and energy efficiency
impact human health and legislation to ensure that it continues to
goals. A comprehensive assessment the environment. be fit for purpose and provides benefits
of the integration of environmental to society. The IED is currently being
performance beyond emissions to air assessed as part of that review process
and water will be possible only once and a conclusion is expected in early
permits become accessible through the 2020. Both its integration with other EU
forthcoming implementation of the EU Other drivers towards more clean and policies and progress on implementing
Registry on Industrial Sites. This registry environmentally sound technologies environmental performance benchmarks
incorporates reporting obligations under include environmental policies and contained in BAT conclusions may be
the IED and the E-PRTR and will be regulations that aim to reduce GHG touched upon during this review.
operational from late 2019 onwards. emissions and thus affect, for example,
the energy mix in the power sector
A number of BAT conclusions also (Chapter 7). The EU Emissions Trading 12.4
attempt to guide operators to think about System (ETS) and the Renewable Energy Responses and prospects of
establishing synergistic relationships with Directive (2009/28/EC) are examples meeting agreed targets and
other industrial stakeholders, for example of this. There may also be additional objectives
by capturing waste materials or surplus incentives for reducing the environmental
energy resulting from processes that impact of industrial installations such as 12.4.1
may be of value to others. This concept cutting energy use and thereby operating Policy responses to tackle industrial
of industrial symbiosis (e.g. Bilsen cost, displaying better corporate pollution
et al., 2015) is enshrined in BAT for social responsibility via voluntary
tanneries with respect to chromium, for green initiatives or taking advantage Industrial pollution has been addressed
solid residues from steel production and of associated governmental funding at the national and regional levels across
for sludge or filter dust from non-ferrous initiatives (e.g. as reported for emerging Europe for decades, and it is beyond the
metal production. technologies by 12 Member States in the scope of this chapter to summarise all of

PART 2
these policy responses. Instead, the IED identifies a number of sector policy
serves as a recent example of increasingly The contribution of the priorities, such as competitiveness,
integrated regulation of industrial cybersecurity and skills, but fails to
Industrial Emissions Directive
pollution at the European level. mention the IED or in fact the topic
to circular and low-carbon of pollution at all. The environmental
economy could be improved. aspects highlighted are limited to
Policy coherence and relevance decarbonisation and resource efficiency.
This underlines that industrial pollution
The IED has been explained in detail considerations need to be further
throughout this chapter (see, for integrated across different policy areas
example, Box 12.3). The Directive also be considered. These pollutants (see also Sanden, 2012) and should
is very much a technical piece of are touched upon in more detail in be considered during the ongoing
legislation that regulates industrial Chapters 4 and 10. Industry releases development of a new industrial policy
point source emissions and aims to thousands of different chemicals into the strategy for the EU.
increase environmental performance European environment and only a small
cost‑effectively through BREFs. The fraction of them are currently monitored. Another good example of this is the
IED already represents an integration Such a revision could also help to better contribution that the IED is intended to
of multiple pieces of legislation align reporting on waste water treatment deliver with respect to the Commission’s
that previously existed side by side. plants under the UWWTD and the E-PRTR. circular economy package. The analysis
Section 12.2 further highlights that, by The presence of reporting thresholds above (Section 12.3.2) shows that,
regulating the industrial sector, the IED in general hampers the interpretation although some BAT conclusions mention
contributes to objectives set by a host of the data reported and therefore best practices for increasing energy
of other policies on air pollution, water complicates sound policymaking. Activity efficiency, improving material use and
quality and the circular economy, to lists and pollutants subject to reporting reducing waste generation, incorporating
name a few. These connections to other under national and regional pollutant these environmental performance
policy arenas are currently not evident release and transfer registers (PRTRs, benchmarks into operating permits varies
in the IED itself due to its age. There is e.g. the E-PRTR) as well as associated across Member States and a fully-fledged
therefore potential to further improve reporting thresholds are currently assessment of their effectiveness is
this integration through the ongoing also being reviewed (see, for example, currently hampered by a lack of data. It is
review of the IED (Section 12.3.2). UNECE, 2018). very likely that the potential contribution
of the IED to the circular and low-carbon
Another important aspect of the IED is It should further be noted that our economy could be improved (Ricardo
that GHG emissions from industry are understanding of the impact of Energy & Environment and VITO, 2019).
not included in its scope. They are instead substances on the environment and This is of particular relevance because
addressed by the EU ETS (for a critique human health is developing over time. a transition from a linear to a circular
of this separation see, for example, This in turn can determine whether or not model of production is required to
Peeters and Oosterhuis, 2014) (see also these impacts are addressed by specific help minimise future emissions and
Section 12.2 and Chapter 7). There is policy instruments and, for example, material throughput. This is evident
nonetheless a clear link between policies monitored. It is therefore currently in the European Commission’s recent
and legislation that aim to establish a possible to assess progress towards long-term strategy for a climate neutral
low‑carbon economy in Europe and reducing industrial pollutant emissions economy (EC, 2018), in which industry
industrial pollution (and industrial air for only the harmful substances for which plays a central role in the transition to
emissions in particular; see, for example, emissions are reported. An assessment a low-carbon and circular economy.
EC, 2018). of whether or not policy is relevant (or Incrementally stricter emission limits
effective) therefore changes over time on their own will not achieve this feat
A 2019 EEA report on industrial waste along with our understanding of the in the long term (Ghisellini et al., 2016).
water (EEA, 2019e) concluded that a substances released by industry. Certain Instead, this transition can take place
revision of the activity and pollutant lists aspects of industrial pollution policy only when resource scarcity implications
and reporting thresholds of the E-PRTR are therefore reactive by definition and economic benefits are as much a
Regulation could help to better monitor (Chapter 10). focus as environmental benefits (see
progress towards controlling pollution also EEA, 2016; Lieder and Rashid, 2016).
from installations covered by the IED. In The 2017 European Commission In addition, the transition to a circular
this context, emerging pollutants should industrial policy strategy (EC, 2017) and low-emission industrial sector in

PART 2
Europe will require additional regulatory by the implementation of renewable

approaches that address new industrial There is clear scope for further energy targets in the Renewable Energy
processes and material cycles. Directive. Stricter emission limit values
integration of environmental
and new BAT conclusions in the IED
The IPPCD had been criticised for being
objectives into the EU’s had probably already had an effect
a soft regulation that relies on industrial industrial policy. on emission reductions up until 2015
as well as regulatory capacities in (see also Box 12.1).
Member States to set permit conditions
that improve the environmental A second recent assessment for
performance of installations rather are not sufficient to properly evaluate the the European Commission (Ricardo
than setting top‑down emission limits effectiveness of policy. Energy & Environment, 2018) analysing
that apply across Europe (Koutalakis the iron and steel sector also found a
et al., 2010). Although some of these An ex post assessment of the Large strong link between BATs published for
perceived shortcomings have been Combustion Plants Directive (LCPD) the sector in 2012 under the IED and
addressed via the IED, some argue (EEA, 2019b) is one example of a policy reductions in air pollutants achieved
that these changes did not go far effectiveness assessment. It identified on the ground. According to the study,
enough to ensure completely effective some of the drivers behind past emission air pollutant emissions reported to the
control of industrial emissions (Lange, releases to air from combustion units E-PRTR by iron and steel manufacturers
2011; Conti et al., 2015; Lee, 2014). in the energy supply sector (i.e. power decreased compared with what they
Permit conditions may therefore still plants), heavy industry (most prominently would have been based on 2016 steel
differ between similar installations in in iron and steel and metal processing), production data and emission factors
similar settings as long as either their light industry (e.g. pulp, paper and wood) from 2012 (per unit of steel produced).
emissions are within the range outlined and waste management (co‑incineration The authors of the study found that
in the BAT conclusion or they are of waste). The assessment found that emissions of SOx had been reduced by
covered by a derogation. past improvements in the relative 29 %, of NOx by 14 %, of PM10 by 25 %
emissions from these units was the and of mercury by 26 %.
A recent report by the European Topic dominant factor in reducing the
Centre for Air Pollution, Transport, Noise emissions of SO2 (such improvements The relatively small contribution
and Industrial Pollution (ETC/ATNI, 2019) alone led to a 71 % reduction between of large industrial point sources to
further shows that, while the level 2004 and 2015), NOx (38 %) and dust overall environmental pressure on
of production in heavy industry has (75 %, which includes PM10). These European surface waters is noted in
remained stable in Europe, emissions improvements in turn are the result of a Section 12.3.2. These point sources
of pollutants to air from that production stricter compliance regime coming into are almost all regulated by the IED.
have decreased as a result of pollution effect in 2008 for existing power plants However, underlying data also suggest
abatement. Additional European demand under the LCPD. In particular, countries that small point sources not regulated
over the past few decades has, however, with previously very high emission by the IED appear to exert greater
been met by production outside Europe, factors for these three air pollutants saw pressure on the quality of surface
resulting in a potential outsourcing of significant reductions around that time. waters (EEA, 2019e).
associated pollutant emissions.
Other factors identified by the In the waste management sector, the
assessment as having an impact on EU Landfill Directive (1999/31/EC) (with
Effectiveness of existing policy emissions from power plants included its provisions on technical requirements
a reduction in the energy intensity on landfill sites and for diverting waste
The effectiveness of policy can only of economic sectors (contributing from landfill), as well as EU waste policies
be assessed properly if its goals and to a 7-9 % reduction for the three (aiming to move waste towards reuse
objectives are clearly defined, measurable pollutants between 2004 and 2015), and recycling), worked hand in hand
and reliable, as well as if relevant data a rise in economic activity (5-6 % with emission control policies, leading
are available for this purpose. These increase) and shifts in the energy mix to reductions in methane emissions
conditions are to a certain extent met (12-15 % decrease) (compare with (Figure 12.3 and Chapter 9).
with respect to pollutant emissions from Figure 12.2 and Figure 12.3). Another
specific industrial sectors that will serve contributing factor was the switch from Such examples as those outlined above
as examples in this section. For many fossil fuels to biomass, which was in show that broadly effective industrial
other industrial sectors, the data available part driven by the EU ETS as well as pollution policy is in place for many large

PART 2
industrial sectors. The example of the this materialises remains to be seen

power plants in particular highlights Existing and incoming EU (EEA, 2019e).
that the introduction of strict, ambitious
policy instruments are
emission limits can be an effective driving Further reductions in industrial
force to reduce pollutant emissions.
expected to further reduce pollution — at least regarding the
More data are needed to assess the industrial emissions. currently reported pollutants — are
effectiveness of current policies to nonetheless likely to be due to the
regulate emissions from other industrial regulation mentioned throughout this
activities (and for other pollutants), chapter. Under the IED regime, a host
including those not yet covered by the IED. associated with combustion processes. A of new BAT conclusions have been or
recent assessment for the EEA (ETC/ACM will be published, with each coming
However, the lack of a comprehensive and Dauwe, 2018) shows that emissions into effect within a 4-year window.
EU industry policy that addresses of SO2 and NOx from power plants could This effectively means that mandatory
environmental performance as an be reduced by at least two thirds by emission limits for industrial activities
integrated aspect of the sector, as well 2030 and dust emissions by more than ranging from pulp, paper and wood to
as the limited scope of existing data on half over the same period as a result refineries, non-ferrous metals, waste
pollutant releases from all industrial of new emission limits for the sector. treatment and chemicals, as well as
activities, indicates potential for further According to the assessment, future power plants, will be lowered further
policy integration. The importance of emission trends in the power sector will overall between now and 2030 (see also
this is underlined by the ongoing costs in particular be driven by EU climate Ricardo Energy & Environment, 2017).
that pollution from the sector imposes and energy policy (Section 12.4.1). It This applies to emissions to both air
on Europe’s society. An earlier study should be noted that, although the and water. Transfers of pollutants
examining the costs of air pollution power sector can arguably meet these to UWWTPs will also be increasingly
from industry in Europe (EEA, 2014) strict new pollutant emission limits by regulated under the IED, which in turn
found that the then levels of emissions retrofitting a number of existing plants may lead to a reduction in the pollutant
caused damage in the order of at least while replacing others with new, more load entering the environment from
EUR 59 billion (or EUR 115 per capita) efficient ones, it will also be necessary UWWTPs. The ongoing European
in 2012. to decommission some of these plants Commission fitness checks of the
to meet EU targets for decarbonisation UWWTD and WFD are also expected to
(Chapter 7) (see EEA, 019c). further address the regulatory gap with
12.4.2 respect to emissions to water.
Prospects for meeting agreed targets While more waste water is now receiving
and objectives some form of treatment before being These findings are reassuring, but there
released into the environment, decreases are a number of important caveats. In the
Incorporating more efficient, clean in pollutant emissions to water have E-PRTR only releases of specific pollutants
technologies and processes within been more modest. Although overall above an accompanying threshold
Europe’s industrial sectors will be reported releases of waste water by have to be reported. Monitoring of
important to ensure continued industry and UWWTPs have decreased concentrations of pollutants in surface
reductions in emissions of pollutants and slightly since 2007, real progress has waters is also limited to a specific list
improved environmental and climate been achieved only with respect to heavy of pollutants (Chapter 4). Chapter 10
performance. metal loads. The current trend to further therefore points to the fact that a
control indirect emissions of pollutants by multitude of emerging pollutants is still
Historical industrial pollutant emissions industry under the IED (i.e. waste water being released into Europe’s environment
have been decreasing, especially with that is treated at UWWTPs before being without being subject to monitoring. Such
respect to emissions to air. Decreases released to the environment) may lead releases may have significant, but as yet
have been most dramatic with respect to reduced pollution of European surface unknown, impacts on the environment
to SO2, NOx and dust (or PM10) emissions waters in the future, but whether or not and human health.

13.
Environmental
pressures
and sectors
2
© Salvatore Petrantoni, WaterPIX/EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Summary
• The EU Seventh Environment • Strengthening environmental • There are benefits from
Action Programme (7th EAP) aims integration into policy areas, such as complementing a sectoral focus and
to ensure that by 2020 the overall agriculture, transport, industry and environmental integration approach
environmental impact of all major energy, and EU spending programmes with a broader systems perspective.
sectors of the economy is significantly is essential, but the overall approach This improves understanding of
reduced and that sectoral policies are of environmental integration has not interactions and enables more
developed and implemented in a way been successful when it comes to coherent and effective policy
that supports environment and climate reducing environmental pressures interventions to reduce environmental
targets and objectives. from economic sectors. pressures along whole value chains.
• Current developments are • Environmental policies create

not in line with policy ambitions. economic opportunities and contribute
Overall, environment and climate to broader social and economic
related concerns are not sufficiently objectives. However, the loss of
integrated into sectoral policies momentum in the development
and implementation requires of eco‑industries indicates that
improvement. It is unlikely that the further efforts are needed to
objective of significantly reducing the realise the 7th EAP's ambitions
overall environmental impact of all of a resource‑efficient, green and
major sectors of the economy by 2020 competitive low-carbon economy.
will be met.
4 par A
PART 2
13.
Environmental pressures
and sectors
13.1 a decision aiming to mainstream climate

Introduction action within all policy areas.
As part of efforts to turn Europe The preceding chapters have highlighted

into a resource-efficient, green and the role of a range of sectors in driving
competitive low-carbon economy, The EU aims to significantly environmental degradation as well as
the EU Seventh Environment Action presenting the contribution of different
reduce the environmental
Programme (7th EAP) aims to ensure sectors to emissions of pollutants.
that by 2020 the overall environmental
impacts of all major sectors This chapter focuses on a smaller number
impact of all major sectors of the of the economy by 2020. of selected sectors, namely agriculture,
economy is significantly reduced and marine fisheries and aquaculture,
that sectoral policies are developed and forestry and transport, given their
implemented in a way that supports important role generating pressures and
relevant environment and climate impacts on natural capital. What follows
related targets and objectives. It also is not a comprehensive assessment
calls for an increase in the market share pursued in primary sectors such as of the environmental impacts of these
of green technologies and enhancing agriculture, through the common sectors, rather it focuses on selected key
the competitiveness of European agricultural policy (CAP), and fisheries, pressures and how well environmental
eco‑industries (EC, 2013c). This dual through the common fisheries policy, considerations have been integrated
focus reflects the fact that well-designed and in the cohesion policy. More into relevant sectoral policies. The extent
and implemented environmental recently, the EU’s integrated maritime to which industry is making progress
policies also create wealth, trade and job policy aims to take a more coherent towards reducing pollutant emissions and
opportunities, contributing to broader approach to maritime issues. It focuses implementing clean and environmentally
social and economic objectives. on issues that do not fall under a sound industrial technologies and
single sector and seeks to improve processes is assessed in Chapter 12.
To date, there has been over two coordination rather than replace This chapter also looks at recent
decades of efforts to mainstream sector-specific policies. The EU has also developments and trends with regard
environmental and climate committed to spending 20 % of the to the economic sector known as the
considerations into other policy areas. EU’s 2014-2020 multiannual financial environmental goods and services sector,
Environmental integration has been framework on climate-related action, also known as eco-industries and the
SOER 2020/Environmental pressures and sectors 291

PART 2
market for environmental technologies. resources and climate action, balanced

In doing so, the chapter provides insights territorial development and viable food
into the role of European environment production. It comprises two main
and climate policies in addressing the pillars: Pillar 1 provides direct payments
environmental pressures from economic to farmers and market interventions;
activities and the wider secondary Providing food is the primary and Pillar 2 supports rural development
socio‑economic benefits that these function of agriculture, but it programmes. An important feature
measures can deliver for society. of the current CAP is the recognition
also provides other essential
that farmers should be rewarded for
functions such as contributing the provision of public goods even
13.2 to rural development and if they do not have a market value:
Agriculture managing landscapes. however, this process has much further
to go (Buckwell et al., 2017). While the
13.2.1 CAP cannot be regarded as providing
Socio-economic relevance of the a framework for a comprehensive
sector and policy landscape food policy, it includes food and food
production-related objectives and
Providing food is the primary function measures, focusing on food security and
of European agriculture, but it also received substantial support under safety and on consumer prices.
provides other essential functions such the main sectoral policy framework,
as contributing to rural development the CAP. The CAP was allocated Agricultural activities and the resulting
and managing landscapes. The relative around 38 % of the overall EU budget environmental outcomes are also
importance of agriculture in the EU for 2014‑2020 and currently has an important factors in achieving policy
economy has been in decline over annual budget of around EUR 59 billion objectives across a range of areas.
the last 50 years. In 2017, the sector (EC, 2013d). The extent of public support These include the objectives of the
contributed 1.2 % of EU gross domestic is indicated by the average share of EU EU nature legislation and the 2020
product (GDP) and, while its relative subsidies in agricultural factor income biodiversity strategy (in particular
economic importance compared of more than 35 % during the period target 3A), objectives related to air
with other economic sectors is low, 2010‑2014 (European Parliament pollution (National Emission Ceilings
it contributed EUR 188.5 billion gross Research Service, 2017). However, this is Directive), greenhouse gas (GHG)
value added (GVA) to the economy, with not distributed equally across the sector. emissions (Effort Sharing Regulation
EUR 57.2 billion invested in agricultural In 2017, 6.5 million out of 10.5 million and the LULUCF Regulation — on land
capital (Eurostat, 2018a). In 2016, about farms received direct payments, and use, land use change and forestry)
9.7 million people worked in agriculture 0.5 % of all beneficiaries obtained and water quality (Water Framework
corresponding to a small and decreasing 16.4 % of total direct payments Directive and Nitrates Directive).
share (4.2 %) of the EU’s total workforce, (DG Agriculture, 2018b, 2018a; Agriculture also has a key role to
with farming remaining a predominantly Eurostat, 2019c). play in achieving the Sustainable
family activity (Eurostat, 2018a). Development Goals (SDGs), particularly
Agriculture remains important in rural The CAP has strongly framed the SDG 2 — zero hunger — and, for
areas as indicated by its higher share in development of the agricultural Europe, SDG 12 — responsible
rural employment (13.5 % in 2014) (1). sector and has had a prevailing production and consumption. The
In addition, as agriculture produces socio‑economic focus. There has been 7th EAP also contains two objectives
raw materials as well as food, it also a shift from a primarily sector-oriented directly relevant to agriculture, namely,
supports employment and GVA creation policy to a more integrated rural to ensure by 2020 (1) that the nutrient
in other sectors. development policy with structural cycle is managed in a more sustainable
and agri-environmental measures. way, and (2) that the use of plant
While contributing to the economy, The CAP 2014-2020 has the general protection products does not harm
the sector is also a large recipient of objectives of contributing to the human health or the environment and
subsidies. The agricultural sector has sustainable management of natural such products are used sustainably.
(1) This refers to the EU-28 and the primary sector as a whole, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (DG Agriculture, 2017a).
292 SOER 2020/Environmental pressures and sectors

PART 2
13.2.2 quality arable land, is decreasing as a

Selected sectoral trends in Europe, consequence of retiring farmers selling
including outlooks land and urbanisation but also because
of afforestation and re‑conversion
The development of the agricultural of cropland to permanent grassland
sector, farming patterns and the The main share of land (OECD/FAO, 2017; Chapter 5). Efforts
environment in Europe is used by to increase production efficiency have
driven increases in arable land parcel
agriculture and the sector
Agriculture across Europe is sizes across Europe, although trends vary
highly diverse, reflecting different depends on the sustainable regionally. This is frequently accompanied
biogeographic, economic, territorial and use of natural resources by a loss of landscape features (ETC ULS,
social conditions. The main share of land and ecosystem services. 2019; Chapter 5). At the same time,
in Europe is used by agriculture, and agricultural land is falling fallow, because
the sector depends on the sustainable farming in marginal areas is being given
use of natural resources and ecosystem up (IEEP, 2010; Terres et al., 2015).
services such as pollination. Farming
structures vary significantly across Although the dominant trend remains
Europe and within countries. towards intensification, around 9 %
(Eurostat, 2016a), and in 2016, 3.3 % of agricultural land is part of Natura
Agricultural production has increased of farms were larger than 100 ha 2000 sites (DG Agriculture, 2017b)
since the 1950s as a result of a mix and operated 53 % of the UAA and around 30 % is classified as high
of European and national policy (Eurostat, 2019c). nature value farmland (Chapter 5).
measures, production-related subsidies, The share of organic production in total
technological innovations and market While agricultural production has agricultural production has also increased
incentives (EEA, 2017c). The EU is broadly increased, the number of farms significantly in the EU and is projected to
self-sufficient in most agricultural (and farmers) has been in decline (from increase further. The area under organic
primary commodities, although 14.5 million farms in 2005 to 10.5 million farming increased by 18.7 % from 2012
this has decreased with increasing in 2016) and is projected to decrease to 2016 and now comprises 6.7 % of UAA
specialisation, and it is the single largest further with ageing farmers not being (Eurostat, 2018d).
exporter of agri-food products globally replaced (Eurostat, 2018a). Among the
(EC, 2016c). At the same time, the sector reasons for these developments are Agricultural production both contributes
is strongly dependent on imports structural and technological changes, to climate change and is affected by
(notably unprocessed raw materials), meaning that production takes place on climate change (Chapter 7; EEA, 2019a).
such as soybeans used for livestock fewer, larger and more capital‑intensive In recent years, the sector has been
feed. Over the last decade energy and farms (EC, 2016c). From 2007 to 2016 increasingly affected by extreme
climate policies have driven an increase there has also been an increase in landless weather events, leading to reduced
in energy crop production as a way (zero-hectare) farms (Eurostat, 2018c). yields (EEA, 2017b). Regionally,
of reducing reliance on fossil fuels In the case of livestock, this type of production in Europe might benefit
(OECD/FAO, 2017). production is less dependent on the from a longer vegetation period,
availability of land and the environmental leading to increasing yields of some
In 2016, two thirds of the EU’s farms impacts are not always local. crops. Adapting production can buffer
were smaller than 5 ha and operating climate‑driven shocks, while affecting
6 % of the utilised agricultural area There have also been changes in the land use and land cover, and the
(UAA). However the general pattern extent and management of agricultural traditional cultural landscape. In addition
of development in the agricultural land. Grass- and cropland together to ozone, other air pollutants also affect
sector has been towards a greater make up 39 % of land cover in the EU. agricultural production.
concentration of agriculture within The proportion of total land accounted
the hands of relatively few large, for by agricultural land is shrinking. Looking ahead, some short-term
often corporately owned, farms The area of cropland, generally good prospects for the sector can be outlined

PART 2
© Leyla Emektar, Sustainably Yours/EEA.

PART 2
based on current trends (based on EC, exceedances of air quality standards

2018a; OECD/FAO, 2017, 2018). Although Agricultural intensification and impacting human health. In
there are regional and crop-related spring time these exceedances are
differences, productivity is projected to
is one of the main causes mostly due to NH3 coming from the
increase further. Steadily growing global of biodiversity loss use of fertilisers and nitrogen oxide
demand for fresh dairy products and and ecosystem degradation (NOx) emissions from urban traffic
affordable feed prices should favour in Europe. (Chapter 8).
the livestock sector. Maize production
is also expected to increase, while there The use of nitrogen-based fertilisers
will be a shift from rapeseed production in agriculture is a primary cause of
to soybeans. This reflects the current diffuse pollution, one of the main
trend towards an agricultural sector less environmental pressures from
oriented to producing biofuels and more EU level, which does not account for agriculture. Excess nitrogen discharges
to extending protein crop production. variation across Europe and between to the environment (soil, air and water)
different types of farming practices. results in systemic environmental
problems such as eutrophication.
Agriculture and environmental For some environmental pressures from Run‑off and leaching from agricultural
pressures agriculture no clear improving trends land has been identified as the main
in absolute figures can be observed, source of nitrogen in surface and
Agricultural activities in Europe have whereas other pressures such as GHG ground water bodies (Chapter 4).
multiple impacts on the environment, and NH3 emissions have increased in Nitrogen losses are captured in the
climate and human health. recent years (Figure 13.1). For instance, nitrogen balance (2), which is used to
Unsustainable farming practices lead pesticide sales have remained relatively assess performance regarding nutrient
to pollution of soil, water, air and food, stable since 2011. While there are emissions by estimating the nitrogen
overexploitation of natural resources limitations to linking trends in sales surplus to the environment. Important
and biodiversity loss and ecosystem with risks to human health and the determinants of nitrogen surplus are
degradation. Agricultural policy has environment, the use of pesticides has the amount of overall fertiliser applied
been particularly influential in shaping far-reaching impacts on food chains, soil to fields and the uptake by grass and
European landscapes and the nature health and biodiversity (Chapters 3, 4, harvested plants, which are influenced
they contain. The pressures and threats 5 and 10). The share of GHG emissions by farm management decisions.
for all terrestrial species, habitats and from agriculture is currently around
ecosystems most frequently reported 10 % and while overall emissions have The nitrogen surplus has decreased
by Member States are associated declined from 1990, in the last few years over the years from very high levels
with agriculture (EEA, 2015). Europe is they have increased from both livestock in the 1990s. From 2000 to 2015, the
experiencing a decline in biodiversity and soils (Chapter 7). gross nitrogen balance improved,
primarily due to the loss, fragmentation although this trend has levelled out
and degradation of natural and Agriculture is the economic sector in since 2010 (Figure 13.2). Over the
semi‑natural ecosystems and agricultural which air pollutant emissions have period 2000-2015, the efficiency of
intensification is one of the main causes been reduced the least and it is the nitrogen use (total nitrogen outputs
(Chapter 3). main source of NH3 emissions. While divided by total nitrogen inputs)
NH3 emissions decreased in the EU also increased, contributing to the
Figure 13.1 presents selected agricultural in the period 1990-2010, they are improving trend in the nitrogen
activities and their related environmental still high and have increased since balance (Figure 13.2) (Eurostat, 2018b).
pressures and impacts including nutrient 2013, driven primarily by livestock However, this efficiency increase did
emissions, ammonia (NH3) and GHG production. This impacts aquatic and not result in significant decreases in
emissions, pesticide and antibiotic terrestrial ecosystems and also favours nutrient losses. The EU as a whole and
use, soil compaction and water use. the formation of secondary particulate some regions in particular still have
Past trends and outlooks are shown at matter in the air, contributing to an unacceptable surplus of nitrogen
(2) For information on the ‘Agricultural land: nitrogen balance’ indicator, references, and country-level information, see www.eea.europa.eu/
airs/2018/natural-capital/agricultural-land-nitrogen-balance.

PART 2
FIGURE 13.1 Pressures and impacts from agriculture on the environment — past trends and outlooks, EU-28
Pressures Nitrogen surplus Phosphorous surplus

49 kg N surplus/ha, i.e. 37 % 1.9 kg P surplus/ha , i.e. 8 %
of the N input of the P input per
Agriculture has Extent of current per ha agricultural land, ha agricultural
agricultural pressure (1) (aver. 2013-15) land (aver. 2010-14)
multiple impacts on the
environment, climate PAST TREND
(10 years)
OUTLOOK
(10 years) ?
and human health. This
figure presents selected
agricultural activities and
se
se
le
se
se
ab
ea
a
their related environmental
re
re
re
St
cr
ec
In
in
de
D
ht
ht
pressures and impacts.

ig
ig
Sl
Sl
Unsustainable farming
practices lead to pollution
of soil, water, air and food
and over-exploitation of Main sources Fertilising
and activities
natural resources. Past
trends and outlooks show
a mixed picture regarding
the environmental
sustainability of the
agriculture sector.
Impacts
Pollution of water bodies

Eutrophication
Biodiversity loss
Notes:
Overexploitation of water resources
Loss of soil fertility/quality
(1) If not stated otherwise, the assessment
period for past trends is around 10 years, Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)
and the outlooks are provided for the Climate change
year 2030. Trends are classified as Air pollution
‘stable’ if changes are not larger than
+- 1 %, as ‘slightly increasing/decreasing’,
if changes are smaller than +/-/= 5 %,
as ‘increasing/ decreasing’ if changes Nitrogen surplus
are larger than 5 %. For the outlooks
projections are referring to scenarios
Agriculture is the main user of nitrogen (N)
with existing policy measures. globally. Over-use of N fertilisers causes
eutrophication of aquatic and terrestrial
(2) Data for 2017 for 27 MS. ecosystems (Chapter 4, 6 and 14).
(3) Data for 16 Member States.
(4) Data for 25 Member States (past Phosphorous surplus

trend), data for 27 Member States If more phosphorus (P) fertiliser is applied
(outlook).
than taken up by plants, it may result in
(5) Based on expert assessment. pollution of e.g. ground and freshwater
and cause eutrophication (Chapter 4).

PART 2
Ammonia emissions (2) GHG emission Pesticide sales (3) Antibiotics use (4) Soil compaction (5) Water use
NH3 emissions from agriculture 438 994 MtCO2e 335 870 t active 72.6 t active 23 % of soils with 29,000 hm3 of water used
3 636 kt, i.e. 92.0 % i.e. 10% of total GHG substance ingredient critically high density by agriculture, i.e. 40%
of total NH3 emissions (2016) emissions (2017) (2016) (2016) of subsoils of total water use (2015)
(2011/16) (2011/16)
? ? n.a. ?
Manure management Cattle Application Veterinary antibiotics Heavy Irrigation

of pesticides used in livestock breeding machines
Ammonia emissions Pesticide sales Soil compaction

Ammonia (NH3) emissions from Agriculture is the main user of pesticides Soil compaction may cause loss of
e.g. manure management result in in most countries. Pesticides have been soil fertility and reduce the capacity of
air pollution and can bring harm linked to impacts on biodiversity and soils to retain water and store carbon
to sensitive ecosystems (Chapter 8). human health (Chapter 10). (Chapter 5).
GHG emission Antibiotics use Water use

GHG emissions from e.g. livestock Sold veterinary antibiotics are mainly Agriculture is a main user of freshwater
farming, agricultural land, fertilizer use used in animal breeding. Over use and resources. Overexploitation may lead to
and enteric fermentation contribute to untailored use (Chapter 10) may cause decreasing groundwater levels, salt water
climate change (Chapter 7). Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). intrusion and loss of wetlands (Chapter 4).

PART 2
FIGURE 13.2 Development of the gross nitrogen balance, nitrogen use efficiency and gross value added, EU-27
Index (2005 = 1.00)
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gross Nitrogen Balance (GNB) Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE) Agri Gross Value Added (GVA Agri)
Notes: GNB, gross nitrogen balance; NUE, nitrogen use efficiency; GVA (agri), agricultural gross value added (agricultural industry). GNB
and NUE are based on Eurostat data (aei_pr_gnb), Eurostat estimates for Estonia (2015), Romania and Croatia (2004-2014) Belgium,
Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta (2004-2015). GVA of the agricultural industry (values at
current prices) based on Eurostat data (tag00056), economic accounts for agriculture — values at current prices.
Source: EEA calculations based on Eurostat data. 2005 = 1.
from agricultural land, and nutrient factors include ambitions to reduce Technological developments have the
levels still exceed nutrient critical loads production costs, policy measures, potential to enable more targeted use
in most of the EU. Looking ahead, the availability and prices of different of inputs. However, such synergies
a decrease of 2.6 % in comparison types of nitrogen fertilisers and between environmental and economic
to 2008 is projected for the average livestock numbers (EC, 2011b; interests do not occur when it comes
nitrogen surplus in the EU by 2030. The Eurostat, 2018b). Efficiency gains to the structure and diversity of
largest fall in the surplus is projected in observed in Europe may have been agricultural landscapes, and soil
regions where a reduction in livestock achieved by adapting nitrogen quality and health. Efforts to increase
herd size is expected (EC, 2017b). management, such as changes in production efficiency and income
fertiliser application techniques or by have resulted in increasing land
Many factors can influence the more targeted selection of varieties parcel sizes, a reduction in landscape
development of the nitrogen balance (Balafoutis et al., 2017; Schrijver, 2016; features and drainage of land. This
and trends vary regionally. These Zarco-Tejada et al., 2014). consolidation, increasing homogeneity

PART 2
and change in the use of agricultural Greening measures were introduced

landscapes has been linked to negative in the period 2014-2020 and target
impacts on biodiversity and soil the majority of farmers receiving
(ETC/ULS, 2019; Chapters 3 and 5). direct payments. They comprise
establishing ecological focus areas, crop
In addition, various pressures from Reducing the environmental diversification schemes and maintaining
agriculture can have combined impacts impact of agriculture permanent grassland. The aim of
on ecosystems and have cumulative greening measures is to make more
would improve progress
effects. For example, in relation farmers deliver environment and climate
to soil, pesticide use can reduce soil across a range of environment benefits, going beyond cross-compliance
biodiversity, irrigation can lead to and climate policy objectives. and acknowledging the provision
salinisation, soil compaction resulting of public goods (EC, 2011b).
from heavy machinery use can reduce
growth and resilience of crops as well as A range of voluntary measures drives
carbon formation and water retention the mainstreaming of environmental
capacity, and the risk of soil erosion is necessarily contribute to the and climate concerns into the CAP.
also increased through compaction as reduction in all types of pressures, Under Pillar 2, Member States have to
well as through increased land parcel especially those related to landscapes, spend at least 30 % of their budgets on
size (Chapter 5). biodiversity and soils. The use of measures related to environment and
more environmentally sustainable climate mitigation. Flexibility is given
farming practices such as organic in selecting measures offered under
13.2.3 agriculture and agroecology offers the national or regional rural development
Responses and prospects of meeting potential to reduce a broader range of programmes. These include area-based
agreed targets and objectives environmental pressures. agri-environmental-climate schemes,
support for organic farming, farming
Reducing the environmental impact of One of the main mechanisms to in areas with natural constraints,
agricultural activities would contribute address environmental pressures from investments in sustainable production
to improved progress towards agriculture has been mainstreaming and providing farm advisory systems
a wide range of environment and of environment and climate objectives covering several environment- and
climate policy objectives. Available into the CAP. There are three main climate-related subjects.
indicators show limited progress mechanisms used: (1) cross-compliance;
regarding the likelihood of achieving (2) greening measures; and (3) a set The share of UAA subject to the different
the sector‑related objectives in the of voluntary measures including regimes provides an indication of
7th EAP, namely that the nutrient cycle agri‑environmental measures. their outreach and their theoretical
is managed in a more sustainable way potential but not of their effectiveness.
and that the use of plant protection Cross-compliance was first introduced In 2016, 83 % of UAA was subject to
products does not harm human in 2003 and is a prerequisite for cross‑compliance; 77 % was subject to at
health or the environment and receiving several types of CAP funds. least one greening obligation and 10 %
such products are used sustainably. It currently comprises (1) statutory was under GAEC (DG Agriculture, 2019).
The Environmental Implementation management requirements selected
Review highlighted NH3 emissions and from existing directives and regulations While environment, climate and public
water pollution from nitrates caused by on environment, food safety, plant concerns are considered within the CAP,
intensive agricultural activities as areas and animal health, which apply to all assessing its environmental and climate
where efforts need to be increased farmers; and (2) additional standards performance is challenging for several
(EC, 2019). for good agricultural and environmental reasons. Firstly, there is a lack of target
conditions (GAEC), which apply only setting at the level of environmental
Emission-related impacts from to CAP beneficiaries and deal with the impacts. Assessing policy performance
agriculture to the environment can be protection of water, soil and carbon on the basis of the extent of area under
reduced to a certain extent through stocks and the maintenance of land and certain management regimes, or budget
more efficient and targeted use of landscape features. Non-compliance allocated, assumes that the measures
inputs to agricultural production and may result in sanctions (based on EC, implemented are effective and there is
innovation and new technologies. 2011b, 2013d; Alliance Environnement, compliance with standards. Secondly,
However, efficiency gains do not 2007; ECA, 2017). while the CAP is a common EU policy,

PART 2
implementation patterns vary among vibrant rural areas; protect food

Member States and the degree of and health quality). The outcomes
Member States’ flexibility has increased. will largely depend on how Member
Thirdly, the environmental performance States use the tools provided at
of the sector does not equal that of European level to tailor ambitious
the CAP, as farmers’ decisions are not Farmers share the aim of action towards those objectives, as the
only influenced by policies. Finally, a sustainable and resilient level of national flexibility will further
responsibilities for mainstreaming food system. increase. Therefore, flexibility has risks
and/or achieving environment and around reduced levels of ambition and
climate objectives related to agriculture compliance as well as opportunities
vary. For instance, the EU 2020 to take an integrated approach
biodiversity strategy explicitly requires that addresses trade-offs between
concrete action in the field of the CAP objectives.
initiated at European and national
level. In contrast, the CAP contributes identified as contributing to a reduction Simultaneously addressing multiple
to climate mitigation and adaptation in GHG emissions from methane and ecosystem services was identified
more generally by offering instruments nitrous oxide (Chapter 7). However, as one factor for increasing the
to enable Member States to achieve the portfolio of CAP instruments can be effectiveness, efficiency and equity
their national targets, and Member used and implemented more effectively of the CAP (IPBES, 2018). As flexibility
States are responsible for achieving for the benefit of the environment may also lead to lower environmental
such targets and deciding on the means and climate mitigation (Brown et al., ambitions, a common set of
of doing so. 2019; ENRD, 2017; Terluin et al., 2017; mandatory minimum conditions and
Zezza, 2017). production standards is required,
Nevertheless, some conclusions such as maintaining landscape
on the CAP’s effectiveness in In general, and in line with features, minimum soil cover and crop
relation to the environment can developments in other sectors, diversification and rotation. Lessons
be made. Cross‑compliance has quantitative and enforceable targets learnt suggest that supplementing
led to some reduction in pressures that go beyond the assessment these with measures that are based on
on the environment, for example of budget spend could stimulate scientific evidence of their effectiveness
nutrient emissions. Yet, there is still more effective and impact‑oriented and tailored to regional needs
non‑compliance by farmers, cases of implementation of the CAP. Although and site‑specific conditions will be
infringement and potential for improving there are some challenges in defining needed to achieve noteworthy nature
implementation at all levels (farmer, such targets, they could include conservation progress (Brown et al.,
national, EU) (ECA, 2016). Greening is environmental pressures directly 2019; Pe’er et al., 2017; EC, 2015b,
commonly considered an inefficient linked to agriculture and captured 2016b; Sutherland et al., 2017).
policy instrument that has not led to in agri‑environment indicators, for
significant changes in farming practices, example NH3 emissions, water quality, Currently, European farmers face
and the degree of flexibility decreases its soil quality, gross nitrogen balance and many pressures and often run their
potential (Alliance Environnement, 2017; impacts on biodiversity as indicated by businesses sandwiched between the
ECA, 2017; Brown et al., 2019). For CAP trends in populations of farmland birds. immense upstream market power of
Pillar 2, the share of 30 % of spending input suppliers and downstream food
on measures related to the environment Looking ahead to the future of the processers and retailers (Buckwell
and climate will be achieved. However, CAP post 2020, current legislative et al., 2017). Yet, the objectives of
Member States’ political wills and proposals aim to make the CAP more the 7th EAP and the SDGs and the
ambitions are key determinants of responsive to current and future long‑term interests of farmers are the
the effective use of Pillar 2. challenges. The nine objectives are same — a sustainable and resilient
economic (ensure a fair income to food system. This highlights the need to
Overall, the integration of farmers; increase competitiveness; think beyond the CAP and take a food
environmental objectives into the CAP rebalance the power in the food systems approach. Doing so expands
does appear to have resulted in some chain); environmental (climate change the focus of attention from producers
reductions in environmental pressures action; environmental care; preserve to other actors and identifies effective
such as nutrient emissions. The market landscapes and biodiversity); and interventions that go beyond a sectoral
reform of the CAP has also been social (support generational renewal; approach (Chapter 16).

PART 2
13.3 the objective of ensuring MSY for all

Marine fisheries and stocks by 2015 where possible, and
aquaculture at the latest by 2020. In addition, the
MSFD also addresses sea floor integrity
13.3.1 in descriptor 6 (7). Sea floor integrity is
Socio-economic relevance of the Fisheries is an important a key compartment for marine life, and
sector and policy landscape sector providing economic some fishing practices such as trawling
and dredging jeopardise it. Also closely
activity and employment in
Fisheries and aquaculture products related to the objectives of the CFP are
are an important source of protein many coastal communities. commitments in the EU 2020 biodiversity
and a crucial component of a healthy strategy, in particular target 4, which
diet. They deliver important ecosystem requires that, by 2015, fishing is
services to society. In the EU, commercial sustainable and that, by 2020, fish
fisheries provided about 152 720 jobs In Europe, fish stocks and fishing stocks are healthy. Fishing must have no
in 2017 (STECF, 2017) and aquaculture fleets are managed by the common significant adverse impacts on species
accounted for about 75 300 jobs in 2016 fisheries policy (CFP) (4). The CFP also and ecosystems, so that all European
(STECF, 2018a). Although relatively small, includes rules on aquaculture, which oceans and seas can be ecologically
the fishing sector plays an important are reinforced by the blue growth diverse and dynamic, as well as clean,
societal role by providing economic agenda component. The CFP applies healthy and productive by 2020.
activity and employment in many coastal to all vessels fishing in European waters
communities. and also to European vessels fishing in In the context of the EU integrated
non-European waters. The scope of the maritime policy, the combination of
The EU fishing fleet is very diverse, with CFP includes the conservation of marine these two key policy instruments (CFP
the vast majority of boats less than biological resources and the sustainable and MSFD), along with biodiversity
12 metres long, a smaller number of management of fisheries targeting conservation measures under the Birds
vessels exceeding 40 metres in length them. To that end, the CFP is adapting and Habitats Directives and the EU
and a still poorly understood number of exploitation rates to ensure that, within a Directive on Maritime Spatial Planning
recreational fishery vessels (3). From an reasonable time frame, the exploitation (2014/89/EU) constitute the basis for
economic perspective, overall the of marine biological resources is the EU to deliver on its commitments
EU fleet is profitable (STECF, 2018b). restored and populations of harvested to achieving healthy and productive
Fisheries depend on healthy seas more stocks are maintained above levels that seas as well as ensuring appropriate
than any other industry, as healthy, can produce the maximum sustainable conservation and sustainable use of the
well-managed oceans are a prerequisite yield (MSY (5)). In parallel, safeguarding European regional seas. Furthermore,
for long-term investments and job healthy commercial fish and shellfish these policy measures contribute to the
creation in fisheries and the broader populations is one of the 11 descriptors overall EU vision defined in the 7th EAP
blue economy. Well-managed fisheries (descriptor 3 (6)) of the Marine Strategy of ‘living well, within the limits of the
result in a cascade of positive outcomes, Framework Directive (MSFD) for planet’ and more recently within the
including increased income to fishers achieving good environmental status global framework on SDGs, in particular
and reduced impacts on the wider (GES). This objective is closely related to the fishing-related targets within SDG 14
environment. the objectives of the CFP, in particular on life below water.
(3) Based on data submitted by Member States under the data collection framework, there were 63 976 active vessels and 20 444 inactive vessels in
2015. Of the active vessels, 74 % were classed as small-scale coastal vessels, 25 % as large-scale vessels and the remaining 1 % as distant-water
vessels (STECF, 2017).
(4) The CFP was first introduced in the 1970s and went through successive updates, the most recent of which took effect on 1 January 2014.
(5) MSY is the maximum catch (in numbers or mass) that, on average, can be removed from a population (or stock) over an indefinite period.
Exploiting fish stocks at or below MSY allows them to be maintained or recovered to healthy levels, providing food for consumers while
contributing to important ecosystem and marine food web functions.
(6) Descriptor 3: populations of all commercially exploited fish and shellfish are within safe biological limits, exhibiting a population age and size
distribution that is indicative of a healthy stock. Three criteria for good environmental status have been identified for the commercial fish and
shellfish: (1) level of exploitation; (2) reproductive capacity; and (3) healthy age and size distribution.
(7) Descriptor 6: sea floor integrity is at a level that ensures that the structure and functions of the ecosystems are safeguarded and that benthic
ecosystems, in particular, are not adversely affected.

PART 2
of Atlantic salmon. Turkish production culture of species at different trophic

consists mainly of trout (inland), levels (e.g. finfish, mussels, algae), with
sea bream and sea bass (marine) one species removing the nutrients
(EEA, 2018c). produced by the other, in a circular loop,
minimising losses to the environment.
The overall use of fish and Concerns over the use of antibiotics
shellfish stocks in Europe Overall impacts have decreased considerably in recent

years because of a drastic reduction
is beyond the limits for Fish stocks are a renewable resource in their use for the top cultured finfish
long‑term sustainability. if exploited in an appropriate manner. species (e.g. salmon), but this still
Overfishing has been historically present remains to be addressed at a wider
in all EU regional seas (Jackson et al., level. A further environmental concern
2001). This causes changes to marine regarding the culture of fed species
food webs affecting species composition comes from fishing for feed, as fisheries
and abundance, and incidental catches are the main source of fishmeal and fish
13.3.2 of non-target species increase the oil. Escapees of any cultured species,
Selected sectoral trends in Europe, magnitude of such change. Other both native and exotic, can compete
including outlooks impacts, for example damage to the with wild stocks for habitat and food.
seabed, are related to fishing methods Fisheries, fish and shellfish farming are
Production of fish and aquaculture and the type of fishing gear used. all also a source of marine litter, and
lost gear can cause additional damage
In the EU, 80 % of production comes from Aquaculture can include the culture to ecosystems by ‘ghost fishing’ and
fisheries and 20 % from aquaculture. of fish, shellfish and algae. Farming is degrading to create microplastics.
In Europe there has been a steady carried out in land-based systems, such
decline in production since 2000 in as recirculating systems, ponds or tanks
both aquaculture (by 16 %) and capture (e.g. trout) or water-based systems in Status of stocks
fisheries (by 17 %; Eurostat, 2017). In coastal (e.g. clams), onshore or offshore
2015, total production of fishery products waters, using structures such as pens The overall use of fish and shellfish
in Europe was an estimated 6.4 million (e.g. salmon) and ropes (e.g. algae, stocks in Europe currently remains
tonnes (live weight equivalent). The EU mussels). Bivalves and algae extract beyond the limit for long-term
is the fourth largest seafood producer food from the water column and do environmental sustainability (Map 13.1).
worldwide, accounting for about 3 % not require feeding in culture. Bivalves The latest available information shows
of global fisheries and aquaculture remove particulate organic matter that around 55% of the assessed fish
production in 2015, compared with and algae remove dissolved inorganic and shellfish stocks in Europe’s seas
China, which produced 39 % (EUMOFA, matter, which provides ecosystem for which sufficient information is
2018). There is a difference between the services such as carbon sequestration available, are in good status when
EEA member countries and cooperating and nutrient removal and has a lower assessing against the level of fishing
countries (EEA-39), where pisces marine environmental impact than the culture mortality, their reproductive capacity,
aquaculture (~60 %) dominates total of fed species. Algae are also farmed in or both criteria. Of the assessed stocks,
aquaculture production, and the EU closed recirculating systems with almost 27 % are in good status according to
Member States (EU-28), where mollusca complete water-recycling rates. both fishing pressure and reproductive
marine aquaculture (~50 %, comprising capacity (i.e. spawning stock biomass),
mussels, oysters and clams) accounts Finfish are cultured in closed systems, and 28.5 % are in good status according
for around half of total production. with minimal impact, and in open to one of the two criteria (Map 13.1).
The countries that contribute the most systems in the natural environment. 45 % of assessed stocks are not in
to European production (EEA-39) are Finfish at higher trophic levels require good status. These percentages vary
Norway (approximately 46 %), followed feeding, leading to impacts on the considerably between EU marine
by Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, benthic ecosystem and surrounding regions — from at least 62‑87.5 % of the
France, Italy and Greece. Together these environment due to the accumulation stocks meeting at least one of the GES
seven countries account for 90 % of of faecal matter and uneaten feed. criteria in the regions in the NE Atlantic
all aquaculture production in Europe. Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture and the Baltic Sea to only two out of 33
Norway’s production is nearly all farming addresses this issue by integrating the (6 %) and one out of 7 (14.3 %) in the

PART 2
MAP 13.1 Status of the assessed European commercial fish and shellfish stocks in relation to good
environmental status per EU marine region, 2015-2017
50° - 70° - 60° - 50° -20° 00 20 ° 50 ° 70 ° 80 ° 90 °

- 30° c e a n
i c O
r ct 27
A
15
r e e n l a nd a nd F
e a, G ar
oe
60 °
i cS 16
nd 12
Is
la
lan
l y d i st r ibut ed
Wide
I ce
11
ds
15
10 20
40°
8 14
52
70 35 8
42
ic Sea
50 °
s
15
32
C
30°
9 Coast
ian 46 Sea
er 47
7 M Ib ck 9 40 °
0 26 la 7
Az
he
18 7
B
a
B i s c a y a nd t
or
s
13
e
18
r
o
n e
Centr 26
Se
a
a
of
te r n M e d i t e r r a n e a n
Se
6
Wes 13
s i a
al
ay
2
n
B
2
ea
20° 13 Ea n
ra
30 °
ste er
r n M e dit
M
it a
ed
er e
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 Km ra nean S
- 20° - 10° 0° 10 ° 20 ° 30 °
- 30°
Status of the assessed European fish and shellfish stocks in relation to Good Environmental Status (GES) per EU Marine Region in 2015-2017
Number of assessed stocks for which adequate information Total number Total number
is available to determine GES (X) of assessed stocks of stocks
Z
Stocks in good status based on both fishing mortality and reproductive capacity Y
X Stocks in good status based on only one of fishing mortality or reproductive capacity
Stocks not in good status based on both fishing mortality and reproductive capacity
Note: This figure shows the status of the assessed European commercially exploited fish and shellfish stocks in relation to ‘good
environmental status’ (GES) per EU marine region in 2017 (2016 data for the Mediterranean and Black seas). Stocks for which adequate
information is available to determine GES for fishing mortality (F) and/or reproductive capacity (spawning stock biomass (SSB)) are
included (where Z, total number of stocks; Y, total number of assessed stocks; and X, number of stocks for which adequate information
is available to determine GES on the basis of these two criteria). A distinction is made between stocks in (1) good status based on both
F and SSB; (2) in good status based on only one criteria, F or SSB (either because one of the two criteria are not in good status or there
is only one available criteria and it is in good status); and (3) not in good status (based on both F and SSB or there is only one criteria
available and it is not in good status). See EEA (2019b) methodology section for further information on how good status is determined.
As assessments are carried out in a multiannual cycle within the Mediterranean Sea, the number of stocks included for this region
depends on the period covered.

PART 2
Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea (EUMOFA, 2018; FAO, 2018) and has
respectively (EEA, 2019b). used this important leverage to drive
a reduction in illegal, unreported and
In addition, the EU faces the dual unregulated (IUU) fishing through
challenge of the need to assess its IUU Regulation, introduced in
more stocks and the need for better Healthy fish populations 2010. The EU’s market leverage in
information on all stocks to inform depend on healthy marine combination with the IUU Regulation
MSY-based stock assessments. Despite can drive improvement in the social
ecosystems.
recent improvements in the North-East and environmental performance of EU
Atlantic, a major step change is required source fisheries worldwide. Although
to reduce both the proportion of total a balance would have to be achieved
allowable catches (TACs) (8) set above between fair market access and social
scientific recommendations and the and environmental performance,
number of TACs set without scientific consolidation and application of
recommendations, as this curtails has contributed to a clear decrease international standards offers a route
opportunities for earlier recovery of in fishing pressure in these two for the EU to facilitate improvement of
stocks. Strong management decisions regional seas. Signs of recovery in the source fisheries to performance levels
and transparent decision-making reproductive capacity of several fish and consistent with the CFP. The upside
processes are required if TACs are to be shellfish stocks have started to appear. of improving fisheries management
brought into line with scientific advice by If these efforts continue, meeting the worldwide has been quantified at up to
2020 (Nimmo and Cappell, 2017). 2020 objective for healthy fish and USD 83 billion, 15 % of which would be
shellfish stocks in the North-East Atlantic gains resulting from applying the CFP in
Ocean and Baltic Sea could be possible, EU fisheries (World Bank, 2017).
13.3.3 based on two of the three MSFD criteria
Responses and prospects of meeting (i.e. fishing mortality and reproductive Ensuring healthy fish and shellfish
agreed targets and objectives capacity) (EEA, 2019b). populations does not depend solely on
fishing at environmentally sustainable
Environmental ambitions and objectives In contrast, there is no sign of levels. Healthy fish populations
are strong policy drivers for fisheries improvement in the Mediterranean depend on healthy marine ecosystems.
management in Europe. Mainstreaming and Black Seas, where about 92 % Attempts to manage Europe’s seas must
of environmental considerations is in of the stocks assessed are fished at account for the global context, multiple
place, and high-level objectives, such biologically unsustainable levels (EEA, interactions between society and the
as the MSFD’s and CFP’s objectives 2019b). These levels require urgent environment, and possible unexpected
related to achieving GES for the action, and success will depend on changes. This will improve system
marine environment, have provided the availability and quality of marine understanding and help identify novel
a basis for policy alignment. Evidence information, the political will to interlinkages and drivers of change,
demonstrates that targeted policy implement scientific recommendations, providing insights into potential future
actions and committed management and adequate uptake of management problems. Europe’s marine ecosystems
efforts can protect and/or restore measures. In addition to improved continue to display symptoms of
species and habitats and can help to scientific information, greater degradation and loss of resilience,
preserve ecosystem integrity. Fisheries accessibility to already available which will be exacerbated by the
management efforts are clear examples information would enable more effects of climate change (Chapter 6).
of positive action and illustrate the effective monitoring of progress Without an integrated approach to
effect of policies on trends in some towards CFP objectives. the management and protection of
long-term pressures in the North-East Europe’s seas, the outlook beyond 2020
Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea (Chapter 6, European policy is also having a wider for productive seas and healthy fish and
Figure 6.5). Since the early 2000s, better impact globally. The EU is by far the shellfish populations will continue to
management of fish and shellfish stocks largest single market for seafood give cause for concern.
(8) Total allowable catches, or fishing opportunities, are catch limits (expressed in tonnes or numbers) that are set for most commercial fish stocks.
The Commission prepares the proposals, based on scientific advice on the stock status from advisory bodies such as the International Council for
the Exploration of the Sea and the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries.

PART 2
13.4 provision of products and ecosystem

Forestry services. According to Corine Land
Cover analyses, the forest area is
13.4.1 overall stable in Europe (EEA, 2018d;
Socio-economic relevance of the Chapter 5). Close to 90 % of European
sector and policy landscape Forests comprise 48 % forests are available for wood supply,
of the Natura 2000 network and they are mostly managed in
According to pan-European statistics, accordance with the principles of SFM.
forests cover more than 40 % of the
and their use for wood Less than 5 % of European forest areas
EEA‑39 region. In addition to wood production is restricted. are considered undisturbed, or natural)
supply, European forest ecosystems (Forest Europe, 2015b), while less than
provide multiple functions. They host 1 % can be considered primary or virgin
a major part of Europe’s biodiversity, forests (Sabatini et al., 2018). Thirty
deliver inputs to other economic million hectares of forests are protected
sectors, and provide forest products as Natura 2000 areas, equalling 48 %
and ecosystem services for society and such as the SDGs (15.2), the Convention of all Natura 2000 protected areas,
human well-being (EEA, 2016b). on Biological Diversity and the United and their use for wood production
Nations Framework Convention on is restricted.
Economically, Europe is one of the world’s Climate Change, where the prevention
biggest roundwood producers (Forest of deforestation receives primary
Europe, 2015a). In 2015, about 420 000 attention through reducing emissions Supply of forest products and
enterprises were active in wood-based from deforestation and degradation. The services
industries across the EU‑28; representing role of forests in mitigating the risks of
20 % of manufacturing enterprises natural disasters is stressed in the Sendai The dominant product provided by
(Eurostat, 2017). The forest‑based Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction forests is wood. Reported roundwood
sector contributes around 7-8 % of the (UN, 2015). production in the EU-28 reached
EU’s manufacturing GDP and employs 458 million m3 in 2016 (Eurostat, 2018a).
over 3.4 million people (Eurostat, European forestry has a long tradition Of this, 21.6 % was used as fuelwood and
2018a). Socially, forests have excellent of developing and applying sustainable the rest was industrial roundwood used
recreational value and are an important forest management (SFM), which has for sawn wood and veneers, pulp and
part of landscape amenities and been monitored since 1998 based paper production. While EU industrial
cultural heritage, and deliver improved on an agreed set of six criteria and roundwood production has remained on
human health and well-being, as well as 52 indicators, capturing the multiple average 45 million m3 lower than in 2007,
employment in rural regions of Europe. productive, social and environmental the production and trade of wood for fuel
functions and services of forests (Forest has grown substantially since 2010, and
Although there is no common European Europe, 2015a). SFM aims to ensure a increasing demand has been driven by
forest policy in terms of a legal framework, range of forest ecosystem services such policy objectives to increase the use of
forests are addressed across a range as the protection and maintenance energy from renewable sources.
of environment and climate policies. of biodiversity, as forests contain the
The ecosystem dimension of forests is greatest variety of species found in Wood products such as pellets and
addressed in the 7th EAP, the Birds and any terrestrial ecosystem, as well as briquettes account for 45 % of the
Habitats Directives and the EU biodiversity protection against landslides, and water EU‑28’s gross inland energy consumption
strategy. The productive role of forests and air purification (EEA, 2016b; Thorsen of renewables, reaching more than
is relevant to the Renewable Energy et al., 2014). 70 % in some countries. Imports of
Directive. The current EU forest strategy wood pellets from outside Europe have
(EC, 2013a) embraces forest‑related doubled reaching 6 billion tonnes in 2015
elements of various strategies and 13.4.2 (Eurostat, 2018a). Timber production is
policies and its implementation relates Selected sectoral trends in Europe, projected to double over the next two
to the bioeconomy strategy (EC, 2018a), including outlooks decades (Bais-Moleman et al., 2018),
circular economy package (EC, 2015a) which may result in challenges for the
and, following the Paris Agreement, the How forest natural capital is managed forest-based sector’s ability to mobilise
LULUCF Regulation. These objectives is decisive for the condition of forest wood. Less than two thirds of Europe’s
are also supported by global initiatives, biodiversity and ecosystems and for the forest growing stock was mobilised in

PART 2
© Boral Kambay, NATURE@work EEA

PART 2
the period from 1990 to 2016 (Forest forest areas, rich in biodiversity, that regions experiencing increased air
Europe, 2015a). This is likely to be due support education and nature-based temperatures have reported large-scale
to the fragmented ownership of forests, sustainable tourism, and recreational insect outbreaks (Pureswaran et al.,
which creates difficulty in accessing and and health related activities. However, 2018). Some species of fungi and pests
mobilising wood resources. About 60 % realising these ecosystem benefits for benefit from milder winters in temperate
of the European forests are privately society requires careful integration of forests, facilitating their spread, such as
owned, of which more than 60 % have an biodiversity considerations into the ash dieback. Despite many uncertainties,
area of less than 1 ha; the average size of forestry sector. There are little available it is generally accepted that there has
holdings is below 5 ha (Schmithüsen and data on the economic value of marketed been an increase in the incidence of pests
Hirsch, 2010). However, recent studies forest ecosystem services, although the and diseases in European forests (FAO,
indicate that reported removals might income from forest ecosystem services 2006; Desprez-Loustau et al., 2007) and a
be underestimated (Camia et al., 2018; exceeds that from timber production shift in the spatial and temporal ranges of
Schelhaas et al., 2018; Chapter 5). in many European countries (Forest insects, as a result of climate change.
Europe, 2015a; Marchetti et al., 2018).
The forest-based sector also supplies Fires cause damage by altering the
non-wood products, such as cork, ecosystem structure, composition and
mushrooms, berries, game, many of Environmental pressures condition. Severe wildfires may remove
which are not marketed, although soil organic matter and result in erosion
their value has been estimated at Only one third of the forest habitats and the loss of nutrients and biodiversity
EUR 723 million, indicating their listed under the EU Habitats Directive (Certini, 2005; Santín and Doerr, 2016).
economic importance (Forest Europe, are in favourable conservation status This may turn forest soils into carbon
2015a). Furthermore, in line with (Chapter 3). For bird populations, sources (Ludwig et al., 2018). Several
the new bioeconomy strategy, the nearly two thirds of the assessments studies suggest that climate change
forest sector is increasingly exploring of woodland and forest species are would lead to a marked increase in the
novel products, such as bioplastics, secured (i.e. they show no foreseeable potential for forest fires in south-eastern,
biocomposites, wood-based textiles risk of extinction and have not declined south-western and, in relative terms,
for clothing, and the use of forests for or depleted). This is better than for other western-central Europe (Khabarov et al.,
climate-smart construction materials. ecosystem types such as agricultural 2016; Bedia et al., 2014). The burnt area in
These new products are expected areas (EEA, 2015). Regarding common southern Europe could more than double
to require low volumes of forest birds, forest birds show less decline than during the 21st century for a reference
biomass while providing high value farmland birds (EEA, 2018a). climate scenario and increase by nearly
(de Jong et al., 2012). 50 % for a 2 °C scenario (Ciscar et al.,
Natural (storms, pests) and human- 2014). Additional adaptation measures
The increased awareness of the induced disturbances (forest fires, would substantially reduce the risk of
multifunctionality of forests and the infrastructure and tourism) are threats forest fires, such as prescribed burning,
many benefits of forest ecosystem to Europe’s forests (Chapter 7). Climate firebreaks and behavioural changes
services for society has promoted change is expected to trigger increased (Khabarov et al., 2016; Chapter 7).
developments in the forest sector frequencies and intensities of natural
that respond to these broader disturbances (Seidl et al., 2017). Storm Forest ecosystems also have to cope
environmental and societal needs. The damage is projected to increase by 15 % with multiple pressures generated
benefits provided by forest ecosystem by 2100, potentially resulting in a 5 % from human-related activities (EEA,
services comprise the above-mentioned annual reduction in carbon sequestration 2016b). These include activities that
provisioning services (e.g. wood and by forests (Gardiner et al., 2013). Boreal directly affect ecosystems and habitats
fibres) and important regulating services such as certain forest management
(e.g. clean air and water, flood and practices. In particular, intensively
erosion control, forest water regulation managed even‑aged forests and
and resource management). Forests biomass production plantations
are also important in climate change Only a third of forest habitats may have a severe impact on whole
mitigation and adaptation as they habitats through clear‑cutting and
sequester and store carbon in the
protected under the EU deadwood removal. Long-term loss of
forest ecosystem and in harvested Habitats Directive show a biodiversity in temperate and boreal
wood products. Cultural services favourable conservation status. forests has been observed under
include accessible and attractive management systems that favour

PART 2
13.4.3 forests for biofuels, are promoted, as
60 %
Responses and prospects of meeting these are not in line with long-term
agreed targets and objectives biodiversity considerations. Recent
scenario analysis (Kändler and Riemer,
The implementation of EU biodiversity 2017) shows that a ‘nature conservation
of forests in the EU-28 are policy still remains a major challenge, preference scenario’ gives the best results
certified compared with and there has been little improvement for both climate change and biodiversity
in the conservation status of forest conservation, in line with other
12 % globally.
habitats and species since 2013 despite nature‑based solutions (Chapter 17).
the implementation of the EU forest
strategy (EC, 2018d). Although there are Certification is a tool to enhance SFM.
no concrete targets for the sustainable The two most widely applied schemes
management of European forests, a are the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)
even‑aged forests and plantations common management objective is and the Programme for the Endorsement
(Sing et al., 2018). Nevertheless, only the need to balance production and of Forest Certification (PEFC). More than
10 % of Europe’s forests have been biodiversity and minimise the impacts 60 % of forests in the EU‑28 are certified,
classified as intensively managed (EEA, described above. SFM provides criteria mostly under the FSC or PEFC or both,
2016b). Forest fragmentation is another and indicators that foster governance, compared with 12 % globally. The area
factor contributing to biodiversity loss, institutional frameworks and indicators under certification has been increasing
illustrating the interlinkages between to measure success in balancing the in recent years, which could reflect an
forestry and other sectors such as production function with ecological increase in the area for which evidence of
transport (Chapter 5). concerns, for example the amounts SFM is available. To date, this is probably
of deadwood and biological and the best way to evaluate the sustainability
Other human-induced pressures genetic diversity. Although SFM does of forest management (EEA, 2016b).
have an indirect impact on the forest not give specific recommendations
ecosystem, for example air pollution, for management regimes, increasing Good governance, science-informed
climate change and invasive alien evidence shows that the ecological content and holistic policies are crucial
species. Deposition of sulphate (SO42-) aspects of SFM would need to embrace to provide the right incentives for
causes the acidification of forest soils management approaches that promote sustainable forest management to
and is reported to be high in central more uneven-aged forests with, build a synergistic relationship between
and southern Europe. Likewise, nitrate for example, long-term irregular or biodiversity and bioeconomy‑related
(NO3-) deposition causes eutrophication small‑scale shelter wood systems or goals. Although some progress has been
and acidification in western Europe even single-tree selective systems, as made, the Environmental Implementation
(Sardans et al., 2016; Petrash et al., in ‘close-to-nature silviculture’, as far as Review states explicitly that some
2019). Although Europe’s forests show this is economically feasible and suitable Member States should improve their
no tendency towards defoliation or for the forest type (Banaś et al., 2018; protection of forests through incentives
forest decline, several studies show Hessenmöller et al., 2018). Systems for foresters following the EU forest
signs of nutrient imbalances in European that ensure structural diversity and strategy and SFM principles (EC, 2019).
forests, such as increasing limitation of small-scale variability in ecosystems and
phosphorus in trees and forest stands habitats have less impact on biodiversity
(Michel and Seidling, 2017; Goswami et (Chaudhary et al., 2016; Puettmann 13.5
al., 2017). Invasive alien species are also et al., 2015). Transport
negatively impacting forest ecosystem
processes leading to reduced forest Under the LULUCF Regulation, forest 13.5.1
condition, biodiversity and productivity. management practices are expected Socio-economic relevance of the
For example, the non‑native black to try to optimise forest functions as sector and policy landscape
cherry (Prunus serotina) is widespread, carbon sinks and as a natural asset
challenging foresters to regenerate their for the bioeconomy. The different Economic competitiveness and social
forests with native forest trees (EEA, objectives of climate policies and welfare depend on an efficient and
2016b). Further global change is likely bioeconomy and biodiversity policies can accessible transport system. Roughly
to increase the presence and spread of result in trade‑offs if high-disturbance 11.5 million people, corresponding to
invasive alien species and the damage management systems, such as intensively 5.2 % of the EU’s total workforce, were
they cause to forest resources. managed plantations and short-rotation employed in the transport sector in

PART 2
2016, contributing EUR 652 billion in GVA on similar requirements for lorries.
to the economy (Eurostat, 2019f, 2019g). In addition, the Clean Vehicles Directive
The sector is a source of government has been reviewed and now includes
revenue through vehicle and fuel taxes, binding minimum targets for clean
and infrastructure charges, but it is also and zero‑emission vehicles in public
a large recipient of subsidies. Transport Transport is one of the main procurement. The revised Renewable
is a key source of environmental sectors responsible for climate Energy Directive (EU, 2018) requires
pressures in Europe, especially of GHGs, a minimum of 14 % renewable energy
air pollutants and noise. It also takes up
change, air pollution and noise in final transport sector energy
large swathes of land and contributes in the EU. consumption by 2030.
to urban sprawl, the fragmentation of
habitats and the sealing of surfaces. European legislation also sets
progressively stricter emission limits
The sector and its environmental impacts for air pollutants from cars and vans
are subject to regulatory, planning and the electricity consumed by transport and for lorries, buses and coaches.
investment decisions at various levels. (e.g. by electric rail transport or electric Known as ‘Euro standards’, these apply
National, regional and local governments cars) is included in the ETS, along with to important air pollutants including
typically play an important role in domestic aviation (within the European NOx and particulate matter (PM) from
transport planning and infrastructure Economic Area). International aviation the tailpipe and also to evaporative
development. The European level is currently excluded, as the Carbon emissions from the fuelling system.
provides the regulatory framework for Offsetting and Reduction Scheme However, the exploitation of weaknesses
many aspects of transport, establishes for International Aviation (CORSIA), in the laboratory-based tests has
common objectives and is also an developed within the ICAO framework, resulted in widespread exceedance of
important source of infrastructure will be introduced in 2021. Under the NOx limits for diesel cars and vans in
funding for many Member States. CORSIA, the process of monitoring, real-world driving conditions. This is one
Because of the cross-border nature of reporting and verification of GHG of the reasons why European air quality
many transport activities, there are also emissions from international aviation requirements are breached in many
numerous international agreements and started in 2019. International shipping is urban areas. To address this situation,
treaties, in particular in the frameworks mainly covered by the IMO. A European a new on-road test now complements
of the United Nations Economic process for monitoring, reporting and laboratory-based testing. This new test
Commission for Europe (UNECE), the verification of carbon dioxide (CO2) is mandatory for all new cars and vans
International Civil Aviation Organization emissions from international shipping as from September 2019. Shipping and
(ICAO) and the International Maritime started in 2018. aviation also have a significant impact on
Organization (IMO). air quality (EEA, 2017a).
To implement the required reduction
Although the transport sector is crucial in the non-ETS sectors, the newly
for achieving the EU’s decarbonisation adopted Effort Sharing Regulation 13.5.2
ambition, there is no specific and established individual national 2030 Selected sectoral trends in Europe,
binding target for reducing GHGs targets. Each Member State is, in including outlooks
in EU legislation or international principle, free to decide where and
commitments for the sector as a whole. how to make reductions, but transport Transport activity in Europe is still
There is, however, a close link between is the dominant source and needs strongly correlated with environmental
transport GHG emissions and the EU’s to be tackled in order to reach the pressures. Although efficiency
pledge under the Paris Agreement to overall target. improvements have had a mitigating
reduce its total GHG emissions by at effect, the growing demand for
least 40 % by 2030 compared with 1990 To this end, increasingly stringent transport still translates into increasing
levels. The EU is planning to deliver requirements to reduce CO2 emissions environmental pressures. GHG
on this pledge by reducing emissions from cars and vans have been emissions increased by roughly one
under the EU Emissions Trading System introduced and recently extended quarter between 1990 and 2016
(ETS) by 43 % and emissions in the until 2030 (see the EU Regulation (including international aviation but
sectors not covered by the ETS by 30 % on post-2020 CO2 emission targets excluding international shipping)
below 2005 levels by 2030. Transport for cars and vans (EU, 2019). In early (Figure 13.3). Transport’s share of the
is a key sector outside the ETS, but 2019, agreement was also reached EU’s total GHG emissions increased

PART 2
FIGURE 13.3 EU GHG emissions in the transport sector, 1990-2017

Evolution of EU GHG emissions (1990 = 100 %)
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
16
17
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
y
ox
National total GHG emissions Transport International aviation
Pr
International navigation Other UNFCCC sectors (aggregated)
Notes: Preliminary data for 2017 (EEA, 2018e). Preliminary data for 2017 are not available for international navigation.
UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Source: EEA.
from 15 % to 24 % during the same decline in the overall volume since

period. This is mainly a result of the A 24 % increase in total EU 1990, but important problems with local
continued reliance of the EU transport air quality due to transport emissions
GHG emissions was noted
system on fossil fuels and of growing persist. Road transport alone was
transport demand. Important new EU
from the transport sector in responsible for 39 % of the EU’s total
legislation has recently been agreed on 2016, compared to 1990. NOx emissions in 2016 and non-road
to reverse this trend, but it remains to transport (aviation, railways, inland
be seen to what extent this can offset waterways etc.) for another 9 %. In the
the expected increase in transport same year, transport in its entirety also
demand. Shipping and aviation are the second accounted for 13 % of PM2.5 (particulate
and third biggest sources of transport matter ≤ 2.5 µm diameter) and 12 %
The road sector is key within the GHG emissions after road transport, and of PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm
transport sector, and in 2016 it international aviation has seen rapid diameter) emissions (EEA, 2018b). Non-
accounted for 72 % of all GHG emissions growth in GHG emissions over the last exhaust emissions (e.g. particles from
from transport (including international two decades. brake and tyre wear) have increased in
aviation and international shipping). importance over time. It is estimated
Passenger cars and vans account for Regarding air pollutant emissions from that they can account for more than
72.5 % of road transport emissions, transport (e.g. NOx, PM, SO2, sulphur half of the total PM10 emissions from
followed by trucks and buses at 26.3 %. dioxide), there has been a strong road transport (EEA, 2016a). The

PART 2
sources and effects of air pollution are biodiversity strategy (EC, 2011a) includes
described in greater detail in Chapter 8. the objective to restore at least 15 % of
degraded ecosystems by 2020, inter alia,
Transport is also the dominant source by establishing green infrastructure. The
of environmental noise in the EU, with green infrastructure strategy (EC, 2013b)
over 113 million people exposed to high Strengthening environmental describes practical ways of reducing
levels of road traffic noise. Road traffic integration into transport fragmentation. Regarding transport
noise makes the largest contribution noise, the Environmental Noise Directive
policy is vital.
to the burden of disease due to requires noise maps and action plans for
noise (80 %) (Chapter 11). Transport major roads, railways and airports but
infrastructures such as roads and does not include targets. The 7th EAP
railway tracks are also a main cause of sets out the broad objective of reducing
landscape fragmentation and they alter the overall environmental impact of
ecological conditions by cutting through production and consumption in the
natural habitats (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). 2030. It sets out the ambition to mobility sector by 2020.
Looking ahead, there are a number of reduce GHG emissions from transport
promising technological developments by at least 60 % by 2050 compared The available data on GHG emissions
and also some signs of changes in with 1990 levels. The EU strategy for from transport and local air pollution do
behaviour that could put the transport low‑emission mobility reiterates this not indicate that the transport sector is
sector on a more sustainable trajectory target and identifies priority areas for already on a trajectory that is compatible
(Chapter 16). However, so far these have action (EC, 2016a). However, the analysis with long-term targets and improved air
not resulted in reduced environmental behind the long-term strategy (EC, quality. However, European Commission
pressures. 2018c) shows that a reduction of more projections that take into account the
than 60 % will be required to achieve expected future effect of agreed policy
the goals of the Paris Agreement. A measures conclude that the target to
13.5.3 transport-related target also exists in reduce GHG emissions will be achieved.
Responses and prospects of meeting the Renewable Energy Directive which An assessment against noise and
agreed targets and objectives requires that at least 10 % of transport landscape fragmentation objectives is
fuels must come from renewable more difficult because of the absence of
The focus of EU transport policy is on sources by 2020. In addition, the Fuel EU-wide targets.
increasing the efficiency of the transport Quality Directive mandates a reduction
system and also on internalising the in the GHG intensity of transport fuels Overall, achieving environmental
economic costs of environmental by a minimum of 6 % by 2020. The targets is complicated by the fact
and health impacts where feasible. proportion of renewable energy used in that transport policy is subject to
It is not a policy objective to curb transport stood at 7.6 % in 2017 and the conflicting objectives, including
mobility. Transport impacts are not just EU trend in the share of renewables in those for economic development,
determined by economic activity and transport remains well below the target territorial cohesion and environmental
technology, however. They are also path required to reach the 2020 goal sustainability. Furthermore, the
linked to land use planning, culture and (Eurostat, 2019i). governance of the transport sector is
lifestyles, which makes a very broad set complex, located at multiple levels,
of policies relevant to transport impacts. European air quality targets are not and policy integration is challenging.
transport specific, but transport plays International negotiations are
There is no EU-level transport strategy a central role as a source of emissions required to effectively address the
setting out specific transport policy under the Ambient Air Quality and environmental effects of the aviation
measures to achieve the 40 % reduction National Emissions Ceilings Directives. and maritime shipping sectors, which
in GHG emissions by 2030 that the EU is It is the main source of NOx and an are responsible for a growing share of
committed to. The 2011 White Paper on important source of particulate matter NOx and GHG emissions (EEA, 2017a).
transport, Roadmap to a single European (PM10 and PM2.5). In particular, the annual
transport area — towards a competitive nitrogen dioxide (NO2) limit values are Although environmental objectives
and resource efficient transport system, exceeded in many European cities, which inform most transport policy decisions,
is the only EU policy document that is directly linked to road transport and this does not always translate into
contains a numerical target for the diesel cars in particular. As to landscape optimal outcomes from an environmental
transport sector (EC, 2011c) beyond fragmentation, target 2 of the EU perspective (especially in the domains of

PART 2
FIGURE 13.4 Value added and employment in the EU-28: total economy versus the EGSS
Normalised to 2000 = 100

(monetary prices are expressed in 2010 prices)
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total employment Gross value added (2010 prices)
Total employment in EGSS Gross value added in EGSS (2010 prices)
Source: EEA, based on Eurostat (2019a, 2019e, 2019h, 2019b, 2019d).
taxation and infrastructure development). environmental policies are substantial in 13.6.1

There appears to be consensus on the Europe. Environmental regulations often Environmental goods and services
importance of integrating environmental create incentives for new economic sector
objectives into all European policies activities that develop less polluting
relevant to transport. This means goods and services. The 7th EAP Since 2000, the EGSS has outperformed
anticipating the impacts on transport of aims to boost the competitiveness the total economy of the EU-28 in terms
policies in other sectors of the economy, of eco‑industries and strengthen the of creating economic prosperity and
in particular of decisions on urban market share of green technologies by employment. From 2000 until 2011,
planning, land management and taxation. 2020. This may contribute to reducing there was a steep increase in GVA,
However, there is limited evidence that environmental pressures as well as but since then the EGSS has displayed
this is happening in a consistent and delivering important socio-economic similar growth rates to the total
effective manner. benefits in terms of wealth, job creation economy (Figure 13.4). Employment in
and trade. The environmental goods the EGSS increased by about 47 % during
and services sector (EGSS) (9), also the period between 2000 and 2015
13.6 called eco‑industries or environmental compared with 6 % in the total economy
Developments in eco-industries industries, produces products and of the EU-28.
services aimed at protecting the
The wider societal benefits of environment and managing natural While the EGSS represents a small share
well-designed and implemented resources. of total economic performance in terms
(9) The EGSS follows a globally agreed statistical standard covering environmental protection and resource management activities (for more
information, see Eurostat (2016b)).

PART 2
of GVA, its economic significance grew chemical industry (9 %) and automotive

from 2000 to 2015, with an increased engineering (3 %) (BMU, 2018).
share of both GVA (from 1.6 % to 2.3 %) Therefore, traditional industries are
and employment (from 1.3 % to 1.8 %). playing a crucial role in progressing
Labour productivity in the EGSS is towards a resource-efficient, green
higher than in the overall economy, The EU environmental and competitive low-carbon economy.
and the EGSS is on average 25 % more economy grew faster than the At the same time, it is essential that
productive than the overall economy. these industries adopt environmentally
overall economy in terms of
One reason for this may relate to the sustainable, resource-efficient and low
fact that industries belonging to the employment and value added carbon production technologies. This
EGSS are more technologically and since 2000. involves aiming for more widespread
capital intensive. application of innovation with
environmental benefits by enterprises
in all sectors of the economy. The EU
13.6.2 undertakes community innovation
Market share of green technologies surveys assessing the uptake of these
The combined share of the eastern innovations in the EU. The results of the
Since 2012, the growth of the market for European countries (Poland, Czechia, last such survey from 2014 reveal that
environmental technologies in Europe Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Latvia and reducing energy use and CO2 emissions,
has lost some momentum, as illustrated Estonia) increased from 3.2 % to 5.9 %. recycling waste or water for own use or
by the trends in the development At the same time China increased its sale, and reducing pollution and material
of the EGSS (Figure 13.4). However export share from 4.6 % to 16.2 %. or water use are the main purposes of
environmental policies, in particular investments in environmentally sound
those encompassing mandatory targets, Europe is improving its role as a provider innovation. The main driver of uptake is
can also stimulate international trade of wind technologies to the world benefits for the company’s reputation
by creating demand for environmental market, with total exports growing and the fact that the benefits of these
and energy technologies. International rapidly from very low levels at the investments apply within the company
trade in green technologies can bring beginning of the current decade up and do not negatively affect end-users
economic benefits for Europe while to about EUR 6.5 billion in 2016. This (Alquézar and Kwiatkowski, 2019).
also providing global benefits through decreased in 2017, which can be partly
the circulation and transfer of green attributed to a slowdown in the creation The importance of traditional industries
technological knowledge across of new capacity globally. Of the top 10 is illustrated by recent research on how
borders (EEA, 2014). The global market producers of wind technologies, five are economies can be transformed so that
for environmental technologies and located in Europe (Germany, Denmark long-term climate protection objectives
resource efficiency is considered to have and Spain), and together they accounted are met while reducing consumption
high growth potential, with a projected for about 49 % of the world market in of natural resources (UBA, 2017). Steel
average annual growth rate of 6.9 % up 2017 (REN21, 2018). Chinese producers production is of great importance when
to 2025 (BMU, 2018). (4 out of the top 10) have an increasing considering the trade-offs between
role in the world market, and trade data climate and natural resource policies
From 2000 to 2015, industries indicate a decline in EU exports to China; and also illustrates well the potential
producing environmental protection however, trade volumes with China are trade-offs between different SGDs
goods performed better, in terms still small. (Chapter 15). The iron and steel sector
of the export growth rate of the is one of the largest energy-consuming
companies producing them, than Developments in green technologies sectors and is responsible for 7 % of
total manufactured goods (Gehrke are not limited to eco-industries, as total global CO2 emissions from fossil
and Schasse, 2017). During the period companies belonging to traditional fuels (IEA, 2018). Fossil fuel combustion
between 2002 and 2015, the share industries have also diversified into in this and other industrial sectors
of global exports of environmental green technology and now account also contributes significantly to air
protection goods of the four largest EU for 43 % of the world market for pollution in Europe (Chapter 12). At
economies (Germany, France, United environmental technology and resource the same time, the steel intensity of
Kingdom and Italy) decreased from efficiency. Mechanical engineering has electricity-generating technologies
33 % to 25 %, a situation comparable the highest share of 18 %, followed differ widely, with some renewable
to that of the United States and Japan. by electrical engineering (13 %), the electricity-generating technologies

PART 2
with fossil fuel electricity prices demonstrating the need for greater
(McKinsey & Company, 2018). ambitions in terms of reducing impacts
of agricultural activities on biodiversity,
Traditional industries are the producers freshwater, marine pollution, GHG and
and suppliers of intermediate inputs for NH3 emissions and soils.
Strengthening environmental the production of green technologies.
integration into sectoral Therefore, the projected growth in The pace of change also differs across
markets for green technologies is heavily sectors. For example, while there have
policies is essential to improve dependent on the economic output of been reductions in GHG emissions
policy implementation. and jobs in traditional industries (BMU, from industry, GHG emissions from
2014). This illustrates the need to assess transport and NH3 emissions from
the whole value chain of environmental agriculture continue to increase. The
technologies and consider the role of current status of many fish stocks
traditional industries, as well as those requires urgent action. For both fisheries
defined as eco-industries, in progressing and forestry, increased political will
having the highest steel requirements. towards a resource-efficient, green and is needed to implement scientific
Therefore, the iron and steel sector, a competitive low-carbon economy. recommendations. It is unlikely that
traditional industrial sector, is crucial the objective of significantly reducing
to any economic transformation, as Advancements in technology and the overall environmental impact of all
it could be technically feasible that an increase in the deployment of major sectors of the economy by 2020
GHG emissions from this sector can be eco‑innovations is crucial for the will be met.
almost completely avoided (UBA, 2017). transition towards a low-carbon,
In addition, increasing the circular resource-efficient and circular economy, The importance of policy coherence and
use of materials could lead to steel but at the same time rebound effects environmental integration has been
production being based on scrap steel may limit the reduction in environmental highlighted in the preceding chapters,
with a corresponding decrease in pollution. The efficiency gains of for example the need for improved
resource extraction. technological improvements may be coherence between the CAP, CFP and
partially offset by a reduction in costs, biodiversity objectives (Chapter 3)
There is considerable technical potential which leads to an increase in demand and between rural development
for decarbonising energy- and material- (EEA, 2013; Sorrell, 2007; Greening et plans under the CAP and the Water
heavy economic sectors, such as al., 2000). Assessing rebound effects is Framework Directive (Chapter 4).
aluminium, plastics, cement and steel, also critical for the sharing economy, as Analysis of the relationships at the
by managing demand through material savings from sharing initiatives can result nexus between agriculture and water
efficiency and circularity. It is projected in increased use of other goods and shows that a more integrated approach
that the CO2 emissions of these sectors services (Skjelvik et al., 2017). The setting is possible (EC, 2019). Environmental
could be reduced by up to 56 % in of absolute and quantifiable reduction objectives have clearly been integrated
European economies by 2050, primarily targets at sectoral or economy-wide level into a range of sectoral policies.
by increasing material efficiency and can reduce such rebound effects. However, there are some challenges
enhancing circularity through improved in assessing how successful this has
product design and new business models been in reducing environmental
(Energy Transition Commission, 2018). 13.7 pressures because of the limited
Conclusions availability of evidence and the fact that
Decarbonisation and reduced environmental outcomes are influenced
consumption of natural resources can The sectors assessed here are major by factors other than policy.
be achieved in parallel, and the global contributors to significant environmental
costs of decarbonising four industrial pressures including climate change, The integration of environmental
sectors — cement, steel, ethylene and biodiversity loss, air pollution and water objectives into the CAP does appear to
NH3 — have been estimated to be pollution. There is a mixed picture in have resulted in a reduction in some
about USD 21 trillion between now terms of past trends and an outlook in environmental pressures such as nutrient
and 2050. However, the costs could which current developments are not in emissions. The market reform of the CAP
be considerably lower, in the range of line with policy ambitions. Agriculture has also been identified as contributing
about USD 11 trillion if zero-carbon in particular has been identified as a to a reduction in GHGs from methane
electricity prices fall further compared key source of environmental pressures, and nitrous oxide (Chapter 7). However,

PART 2
structural changes in the economy momentum in the development of the

have also contributed to a reduction environmental goods and services sector
in environmental pressures linked to indicates that further efforts are needed
economic activities. to realise the 7th EAP ambitions of a
resource-efficient, green and competitive
Looking ahead, it is clear that the policy Policy needs to consider low-carbon economy.
approach of environmental integration environmental, economic,
has not been successful when it In addition, the sectors featured
comes to reducing environmental
social and governance here have to deliver multiple societal
pressures from sectors. In many cases, dimensions and their functions, supporting livelihoods as well
sectoral policies encompass a range synergies and trade-offs. as having a vital role in stewardship
of objectives, governance is complex of the environmental resources they
and policy integration is challenging, ultimately depend on. This means that
and the environment is a lower priority policy interventions need to consider
than other objectives. For example, environmental, economic, social and
the EU industrial policy strategy brings as agriculture, industry and transport, governance dimensions and their
together a wide range of policies at both the framing and execution inherent synergies and trade-offs.
relating to industry (EC, 2017a). stages, is essential to improve policy There are benefits from complementing
However environmental aspects do implementation (EC, 2019). a sectoral focus and environmental
not feature prominently, with the integration approach with a broader
exception of references to achieving Environmental policies create economic systems perspective (Chapter 15). This
a low-carbon and circular economy, opportunities and contribute to places sectoral activities within wider
while industrial pollution is not broader social and economic objectives. production and consumption systems,
mentioned. This highlights the scope Ambitious and fully implemented improving our understanding of
for further environmental integration policies create conditions that stimulate interactions and enabling more coherent
across industrial policy, especially in the development of environmental and effective policy interventions to
the context of the policy objective of technologies, creating new job reduce environmental pressures along
industry having a share of 20 % of GDP opportunities as well as offsetting whole value chains, thereby realising
by 2020. Strengthening environmental potential job losses in other sectors potential co-benefits for human health
integration into key policy areas such of the economy. However, the loss of and well-being.

14.
Summary
assessment
2
© Istvan Kerekes, Sustainably Yours EEA
3
par A
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14.
Summary assessment
14.1 there are considerably more binding

Introduction targets for climate change, air pollution,
waste and chemicals than for biodiversity,
The Seventh Environment Action freshwater and the marine environment
Programme (7th EAP) plays a central role and none for land and soil (Figure 14.1).
in the current European environment Effective implementation Across the 10 environmental themes
and climate policy landscape, providing addressed in The European environment
of the environmental acquis
strategic direction and a framework — state and outlook 2020 (SOER 2020), the
for EU environmental policies. Since its provides the foundation for substantial majority of binding targets
publication, it has underpinned initiatives achieving longer term and non-binding objectives are set for
such as the circular and low-carbon policy objectives. 2020 with a smaller number set for
economy. Over the same period, there 2030. The summary assessment reflects
have been globally driven complementary this, primarily focusing on the 2020 and
policy developments in the form of the 2030 time horizons. It also looks ahead
Paris Agreement on climate change to consider prospects in the context
and the 2030 agenda for sustainable targets. These are brought together of the Sustainable Development Goals
development (Chapter 2). here to provide an overview from the (SDGs), as this comprehensive set of
perspectives of the 7th EAP’s priority sustainability goals and targets can be
The 7th EAP thematic priority objectives objectives. The summary assessments of expected to be increasingly integrated
build on existing environment and climate past trends and prospects are broader throughout future EU policy frameworks.
legislation and policy initiatives and than those found in a series of reports
promote their implementation. Effective published by the EEA, which used a stable
implementation of the environmental set of indicators to monitor the progress 14.2
acquis provides the foundation for of the 7th EAP at action level (EEA, 2016, Summary assessment of past
securing these broader, more strategic 2017, 2018). The summary assessment trends, outlooks and prospects
objectives as well as contributing to the also goes beyond those reports by
2050 sustainability vision of the 7th EAP. providing a longer term outlook to 2030. The overall summary assessment table
The preceding chapters provide an presented below has been compiled
overview of past trends, outlooks and While environmental objectives are from the summary assessments
prospects towards policy objectives and evenly spread across different themes, in Chapters 3-12. It is structured
SOER 2020/Summary assessment 319

PART 2
FIGURE 14.1 Overview of non-binding objectives and binding targets of EU environmental policy, 2015-2050
Number of objectives Number of targets
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
35
38
40
50
29
30
32
30
50
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
15
20
15
16
17
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Biodiversity and nature Freshwater Land and soil Marine environment
Climate change Air pollution Environmental noise Waste and resources
Chemical pollution Industrial pollution Cross-environmental area
Source: Paleari (2019).
by the 7th EAP priority thematic and prospects in relation to the three
While there has been progress objectives to provide an overview at thematic priority objectives and selected
a European level from the following cross-cutting issues.
in many areas, the EU falls cross-cutting perspectives: protecting,
short of achieving a number of conserving and enhancing natural
environmental objectives and capital; resource‑efficient, circular and 14.3
targets for 2020. low‑carbon economy; and safeguarding Protecting, conserving and
from environmental risks to health and enhancing natural capital
well‑being.
Priority objective 1 of the 7th EAP is
The assessments summarised in ‘to protect, conserve and enhance the
Table 14.1 indicate that, although there Union’s natural capital’ (EU, 2013). The
have been improvements in many areas, objective recognises the fundamental
substantial challenges remain and role of natural capital in determining
Europe is not on track to meet policy economic prosperity and social
objectives and targets in many areas. well‑being. The scope of the objective
The following sections assess progress encompasses seven main areas:
320 SOER 2020/Summary assessment

PART 2
TABLE 14.1 Summary of past trends, outlooks and prospects of meeting policy objectives/targets

objectives/targets
Past trends Outlook 2020 2030 2050

(10-15 years) to 2030 2020 2030 2050
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Terrestrial protected areas 
Marine protected areas 
EU protected species and habitats 
Common species (birds and butterflies) 
Ecosystem condition and services 
Water ecosystems and wetlands 
Hydromorphological pressures 
State of marine ecosystems and biodiversity 
Pressures and impacts on marine ecosystems 
Urbanisation and land use by agriculture and forestry 
Soil condition 
Air pollution and impacts on ecosystems  
Chemical pollution and impacts on ecosystems 
Climate change and impacts on ecosystems 
Resource-efficient, circular and low-carbon economy
Material resource efficiency 
Circular use of materials 
Waste generation 
Waste management 
Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation efforts   
Energy efficiency   
Renewable energy sources   
Emissions of air pollutants  
Pollutant emissions from industry 
Clean industrial technologies and processes 
Emissions of chemicals 
Water abstraction and its pressures on surface and groundwater 
Sustainable use of the seas 
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health and well-being
Concentrations of air pollutants  
Air pollution impacts on human health and well-being 
Population exposure to environmental noise and impacts on human health  z
Preservation of quiet areas 

Pollution pressures on water and links to human health 
Chemical pollution and risks to human health and well-being 
Climate change risks to society 
Climate change adaptation strategies and plans 

PART 2
(1) biodiversity and ecosystem services; yield. The target for designation of
13 %
(2) transitional and coastal waters marine protected areas has been met,
and freshwaters; (3) marine waters; but trends in widespread or common
(4) land; (5) the impact of air pollution species are mixed. The target of
on ecosystems and biodiversity; (6) the achieving good environmental status
nutrient cycle; and (7) forests. of urban land consumed, has of European marine waters by 2020 is
been recycled despite urban unlikely to be achieved in relation to
key pressures such as contaminants,
land recycling being key
14.3.1 eutrophication, invasive alien species
Progress and prospects to 2030 to achieving the EU target of and marine litter. Looking ahead, the
(2050) no net land take by 2050. marine environment is under pressure
from the developing blue economy,
The EU’s natural capital is not yet being which includes traditional and emerging
protected, conserved and enhanced in maritime activities such as extraction of
line with the ambitions of the 7th EAP. living and non‑living resources, transport,
A low proportion of the assessed and groundwater bodies continue to energy production and tourism. In the
protected species (23 %) and habitats arise from nutrient and other chemical face of this unprecedented amount of
(16 %) are considered to be in favourable pollution, changes in hydromorphology human activities competing to use the
conservation status, and Europe is and water abstraction. While some marine environment, the outlook for
not on track to meet its overall target pressures such as point source pollution achieving the policy vision of healthy,
of halting biodiversity loss by 2020. and water abstraction have declined, clean and productive European seas is
Significant progress has been made in others have not. Looking ahead, challenging (Chapter 6).
areas such as designation of protected although Europe is on the way to
areas, some species have recovered and achieving good status of its water bodies, Land and soil function together to
action has been taken to address specific river basin management will need to provide a range of ecosystem services
threats, for example the EU initiative on evolve to address the management of including food production, nutrient
pollinators. Policy responses, although water quality and quantity in the context cycling and climate change mitigation
successful in some areas, have been of a changing climate and potentially and adaptation. The proportions of
insufficient to halt biodiversity loss increasing pressures on aquatic Europe’s main land cover types are
and the degradation of ecosystem ecosystems and wetlands. Doing so relatively stable. Annual net land
services. The prospects to 2030 would would also support the achievement of take has decreased from 922 km2 in
be more positive with more effective biodiversity and marine policy objectives the period 2000-2006 to 440 km2 in
implementation of existing policies, (Chapter 4). the period 2012-2018, and there has
effective management of sites and been a decline in the annual rate of
improved policy coherence, especially Turning to the marine environment, loss of land to artificial surfaces. The
for sectoral policies, particularly European countries have, through joint current rate of land recycling is low
agriculture (Chapter 3). efforts, managed to reduce selected (13 % of urban land development),
pressures and positive effects are starting yet this could be key to achieving the
Reduced pollution has improved the to be seen. These include recovery of EU target of no net land take by 2050.
quality of Europe’s water, particularly some fish stocks and species, and an Landscape fragmentation continues
following the implementation of urban increasing number of stocks are now to increase, especially in some rural
waste water treatment. However, the being fished at maximum sustainable and less populated areas, although
objective of achieving good ecological the increase was lower in and around
status for all of Europe’s water bodies Natura 2000 sites than in unprotected
by 2020 will not be met, as currently areas. Soil degradation remains an
only 40 % of surface waters have issue of concern across many parts of
achieved good ecological status and Further efforts are needed Europe, and the loss of soil functions
38 % have achieved good chemical to protect, conserve and impedes sustainable land management
status. The situation is more positive and therefore the 7th EAP objective
enhance the EU’s natural
regarding groundwater bodies, with of achieving this by 2020. Looking
74 % achieving good chemical status and capital in line with the ahead, a review of the challenges facing
89 % achieving good quantitative status. ambitions of the 7th EAP. Europe and developing a coherent
The main pressures on Europe’s surface policy framework would greatly assist

PART 2
BOX 14.1 Challenges, synergies and opportunities — integrated management of nitrogen
T he need for integrated and adaptive

management approaches for natural
capital is clear. Current responses to
groundwater are declining (Chapter 4).
The Nitrates Directive is a key instrument
for reducing water pollution from
These related to agriculture, transport
and industry, waste water treatment
and societal consumption patterns and
complex problems can be characterised nitrates from agricultural sources. A aimed to provide an integrated package
by fragmented approaches, as illustrated recent review concluded that, despite for the development and application
by the case of nitrogen. The 7th EAP some positive progress, nutrient of policy actions. Six years later, the
aims to ensure that by 2020 ‘the nutrient overload from agriculture continues to authors concluded that the European
cycle (nitrogen and phosphorus) is be one of the biggest pressures on the nitrogen assessment resulted in a better
managed in a more sustainable and aquatic environment and that further understanding of the nitrogen cycle
resource-efficient way.’ efforts are needed (EC, 2018b). and increased awareness of the issues,
stimulating further assessments and policy
Diffuse pollution from nutrients, from There are still unacceptable losses development at global and national levels
agriculture in particular, affects the of nitrogen to the environment and (Sutton et al., 2017). They also highlight the
status of terrestrial, freshwater, coastal substantial improvements are needed to important role that food choices play in
and marine ecosystems and biodiversity manage the nitrogen cycle sustainably. influencing nitrogen emissions (Westhoek
(Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6). There have The European nitrogen assessment et al., 2015) and the potential co-benefits
been improvements in the agricultural identified a package of seven key actions of making a closer link between food
nitrogen balance (Chapter 13) and for better management of the European choices and the environment, health and
concentrations of nitrates in rivers and nitrogen cycle (Sutton et al., 2011). well-being (Chapter 16). ■
in achieving the SDG target of land Concentrations in the environment of Europe is not on track to minimise the
degradation neutrality and the longer some individual chemicals targeted significant adverse effects of chemicals on
term 7th EAP ambition of no net land by policy instruments have decreased the environment by 2020 (Chapter 10).
take by 2050, along with slowing trends and can be expected to decline further.
in the expansion of urban areas and However, the effects of most chemicals Climate change is already impacting
transport infrastructure (Chapter 5). on ecosystems have not been assessed. biodiversity and ecosystems. Looking
Accumulation of chemicals and the ahead, climate change impacts are
Air pollution continues to impact continued emission of persistent and expected to intensify and the underlying
biodiversity and ecosystems through hazardous chemicals suggest that drivers of biodiversity loss are expected
the deposition of excessive nitrogen the impacts of chemical pollution on to persist (Chapter 7). This means that
resulting in eutrophication. In ecosystems will not decrease and that the outlook for protecting, conserving
many areas nitrogen inputs from and enhancing natural capital is not
the atmosphere exceed levels that positive. Natural capital will continue to
62 %
ecosystems can tolerate without being be degraded and depleted from habitat
damaged and, in 2016, around 62 % of loss, fragmentation and degradation,
the area of European ecosystems was as well as climate change, natural
exposed to excessive levels. Looking resource extraction, pollution and
ahead, exceedances should decline, but invasive alien species. Socio‑economic
of the area of European
medium-term projections suggest that activities such as agriculture, fisheries,
biodiversity in 58 % of all Natura 2000 ecosystems was exposed to transport, industry and energy
areas will remain at risk from excessive levels of nitrogen beyond that production will continue to exert
atmospheric nitrogen deposition in 2030 which they can safely tolerate. pressures and demands on Europe’s
(Chapter 8). ecosystems. For the forestry and the

PART 2

© Istvan Kerekes, Sustainably Yours EEA
PART 2
BOX 14.2 Challenges, synergies and opportunities — harnessing the co-benefits of mitigation actions
P ursuing the objective of turning

Europe into a resource-efficient,
green and competitive low-carbon
strong co-benefits for air pollution.
Shifts in the energy sector as a
result of EU climate mitigation policy
the Kyoto Protocol, illustrates the need
for policy coherence and integrated
approaches.
economy provides opportunities (e.g. the EU Emissions Trading System
to harness synergies across policy and renewable energy targets) have There are also substantial co-benefits
areas. At the same time, it also poses contributed to reductions in air between measures to promote
challenges in terms of recognising and pollutants. In addition, policies such as renewable energy, energy efficiency
addressing trade-offs. the Nitrates Directive, the market reform and climate mitigation. The additional
of the common agricultural policy and consumption of renewable energy
Climate change mitigation is a useful the Landfill Directive have had positive since 2005 has allowed the EU to cut
example to illustrate these co-benefits effects on reducing non-carbon dioxide its demand for fossil fuels and related
and trade-offs. First of all, recent gases, such as methane and nitrous GHG emissions by about one tenth
decreases in greenhouse gas (GHG) oxide (Chapter 7). In turn, trade-offs (EEA, 2017). Reducing GHG emissions,
emissions in times of economic growth between climate change mitigation and increasing energy efficiency and
in Europe show that climate change air pollution policies need to be carefully increasing the share of renewable
mitigation and economic progress are considered. For example, promoting energy in final energy consumption are
not mutually exclusive. Indeed, since diesel vehicles because of their lower complementary and are part of the 2030
2000 eco-industries have outperformed carbon dioxide emissions and promoting climate and energy framework and the
the total economy of the EU-28 in terms biomass as a carbon-neutral fuel for recent EU strategy for a climate‑neutral
of creating economic prosperity and domestic heating has led to a decline economy by 2050 (EC, 2018a). In
employment. Between 2000 and 2015, in air quality, especially in urban areas addition, actions to protect and restore
employment in eco-industries grew by (Chapter 8). The Montreal Protocol and ecosystems can contribute to mitigation
about 47 % compared with 6 % for the the banning of chlorofluorocarbons and adaptation efforts by reducing
overall economy (Chapter 13). (CFCs), which subsequently caused emissions caused by ecosystem
an increase in the use of substituted degradation and by enhancing
Climate change mitigation also has hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), regulated by carbon stocks. ■
fisheries sectors, projected increases in year (COWI and Eunomia, 2019). The natural capital into accounting systems
demand for biomass/wood and seafood mapping and assessment of ecosystems in order to integrate natural capital
will require the use of integrated and their services (MAES) process and concerns adequately into economic
ecosystem management approaches the EU knowledge innovation project systems and decision-making.
and sustainable forest management to on natural capital accounting (KIP INCA)
ensure sustainable use of natural capital. will strengthen the knowledge base for Particularly in relation to biodiversity,
future actions at European and national when policy objectives and targets are
In conclusion, Europe risks destroying levels, including the incorporation of not met, there is a tendency to reiterate
its natural capital without a full them while extending the time frame.
appreciation of what is being lost. For Retaining ambition is essential but
example, the overall economic benefits current approaches do not address the
of the Natura 2000 network have been Europe risks destroying root cause of most of the pressures
estimated at EUR 200-300 billion per on Europe’s natural capital, which are
its natural capital
year (Brink et al., 2013) and the cost of linked to societal systems of production
not reaching the headline targets of without a full appreciation and consumption. In addition to further
the EU biodiversity strategy to 2020 has of what is being lost. implementation of existing policies,
been estimated at EUR 13 billion per including sectoral policies and increased

PART 2
use of nature-based solutions, between 1990 and 2017 as a result of the

structural changes in these societal combined effect of policies and measures,
systems are needed to sufficiently and economic factors, including shares
reduce pressures on natural capital of energy from renewable sources
and put Europe on track to meeting the increasing steadily to 17.5 % in 2017.
ambitions set out in the 7th EAP and the Past trends for resource Energy efficiency has improved as
EU biodiversity strategy. These aspects efficiency, the circular well, and final energy consumption
are assessed in Part 3. decreased to levels similar to those in
economy, and climate
1990. However, since 2014 an increase in
and energy are encouraging; final energy demand has been observed,
14.4 the outlook is less positive. driven in particular by increased demand
A resource-efficient, circular and from the transport sector. If this trend
low-carbon economy continues, the EU’s 2020 target for energy
efficiency might not be met without
Priority objective 2 of the 7th EAP is ‘to additional efforts (Chapter 7).
turn the Union into a resource-efficient,
green and competitive low‑carbon prospects to 2030 are highly uncertain, The medium and long-term outlook
economy’ (EU, 2013). Therefore, it partly due to the absence of measurable for climate and energy is less positive.
is based on the recognition that the and binding policy targets, while global With existing policies and measures, the
prevailing economic paradigm, based demand for resources is expected to rise estimates reported by Member States
on continuously growing natural strongly (Chapter 9). suggest reductions in GHG emissions of
resource use and harmful emissions, 29 % by 2030 compared with 1990 levels,
cannot be sustained in the long When it comes to waste, past trends show whereas the EU target is at least 40 %.
term (EEA, 2015). The scope of the an increase in the amount of total waste Even faster rates of emission reductions
objective encompasses five main generated in Europe, although there and stronger mitigation efforts will be
areas: (1) resource efficiency; (2) waste; are large differences among countries required to meet the 2050 objective of
(3) climate and energy; (4) sustainable and there has been some decoupling of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 %.
consumption and production; and waste from economic development and Likewise, for the EU to reach its 2030
(5) water efficiency. population growth. The outlook to 2030 is energy targets of 32 % renewables and
less optimistic, as certain types of waste 32.5 % energy efficiency, continuing at
are expected to increase and many waste the current rate of progress will not be
14.4.1 prevention programmes are rather weak sufficient. EU legislation was adopted
Progress and prospects to 2030 and their effectiveness at the European in 2018 in all three areas to ensure
(2050) level is unknown. More encouragingly, stronger climate action to reduce GHG
waste management is improving, with emissions, increase the use of renewables
Concerning resource efficiency and the increasing recycling rates and less and deliver on energy efficiency targets
circular economy, trends since 2000 reliance on landfilling. These positive (Chapter 7). The transformation into
in Europe’s territory are encouraging. waste management trends are expected a low-carbon energy system requires
Material consumption in the EU Member to continue; however, several countries substantial investments across all sectors
States (EU-28) declined during the are expected to miss their binding waste and increased efforts regarding the
last decade, and resource efficiency management targets and the quality implementation of energy efficiency
improved as gross domestic product aspects of recycled materials requires measures and the further deployment of
increased. The circular use of materials increased attention (Chapter 9). renewable energy sources, including their
has also slightly improved since 2004. uptake in the transport sector.
Together, this has led to an increase in The climate and energy targets for
resource productivity of almost 39 % the short (2020), medium (2030) and Transforming Europe into a green and
since 2000, albeit with large differences long term (2050) are a fundamental competitive economy requires adopting
between countries. This indicates pillar for achieving a resource-efficient sustainable patterns of production and
progress in dematerialising economic and low‑carbon economy. Past trends consumption. This involves reducing
output, although these trends do show that the EU has made substantial the overall environmental pollution
not take into account materials used progress in decoupling carbon emissions load and the environmental impact of
and discarded during the production from economic growth. Total greenhouse major economic sectors. Past trends
of imported goods. Looking ahead, gas (GHG) emissions declined by 22 % show a mixed picture in this regard.

PART 2
Encouragingly, there have been strong the objective encompasses seven main
decreases in overall emissions of the areas: (1) air quality; (2) environmental
main air pollutants, although since 2000 noise; (3) drinking and bathing water
the rates of reduction have levelled off quality; (4) hazardous chemicals; (5)
(Chapter 8). Industrial emissions to air pesticides; (6) nanomaterials; and (7)
and water have decreased substantially, Reaching the EU’s long‑term climate change adaptation.
emissions to air of some chemicals policy goals requires
have decreased, and clean industrial
sustainable production and
technologies and processes are 14.5.1
gaining ground (Chapter 12). Likewise, consumption patterns. Progress and prospects to 2030
more sustainable practices have (2050)
emerged in the forestry and maritime
sectors. Other past trends are less Environmental pressures continue
positive. Despite improved efficiencies to contribute significantly to the
overall, environmental pressures on measures to further reduce water overall burden of disease in Europe,
from transport have increased due use by households and agriculture. in particular non-infectious diseases.
to growing demand. Emissions of While emissions of air pollutants have
ammonia from agriculture have recently In conclusion, Europe has been able declined, almost 20 % of the EU-28
increased, and the production and to reduce GHG emissions and air urban population lives in areas with
consumption of chemicals hazardous pollution, improve resource efficiency air pollutant concentrations above at
to health and the environment has and energy efficiency, and achieve least one EU air quality standard and
remained stable. higher shares of renewable energy while up to 95 % lives in areas exceeding
increasing economic growth. However, World Health Organization (WHO) air
Looking ahead, the prospects for moving much remains to be done to improve quality guidelines for ozone. The latest
towards sustainable production and the environmental sustainability of estimates indicate that exposure to
consumption in key sectors are mostly Europe’s production and consumption fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 µm, PM2.5)
mixed or even negative. Air, soil and patterns and to reach long-term policy is responsible for around 400 000
water pollution from agriculture is targets and objectives. This would premature deaths in Europe every
expected to remain high, despite some require consideration of the co-benefits year with the largest relative impacts
regional improvements in relation to the and trade-offs between policy areas, observed in central and eastern
nitrogen balance. GHG emissions, and including climate, resource efficiency European countries. Looking ahead, it
air and water pollutant emissions from and environmental policies, in the is envisaged that the commitments to
industry are expected to further decline. design of new legislation. In addition, reduce air pollutant emissions by 2030
In the transport sector, GHG emissions the assessment of progress does not will result in a decrease in the population
might stabilise, but their high level take into account the full environmental exposed to PM2.5 concentrations above
means that transport sector emissions impacts of production and consumption WHO guidelines. The estimated number
will be a key barrier to the EU’s reaching in Europe exerted outside Europe. These of premature deaths attributable to
its GHG reduction targets. Regarding aspects are assessed in Part 3. PM2.5 should halve, although at 194 000
chemical production, increases are there is still a need to substantially
projected, and hazardous substances in reduce the number. Developments
products coming from outside Europe 14.5 in the transport sector are also not
are of particular concern. Safeguarding people from compatible with objectives for local air
environmental risks to health quality (Chapter 8).
Lastly, water efficiency has improved, and well-being
with decreases in water abstraction Environmental noise continues to
of 19 % from 1990 to 2015 for the Priority objective 3 of the 7th EAP constitute a major environmental health
EU as a whole, but water abstraction is ‘to safeguard the Union’s citizens problem, with at least 20 % of the EU’s
still exceeds 20 % of the renewable from environment-related pressures population living in areas where noise
freshwater resource in 19 % of and risks to health and well-bring’ levels are considered to be harmful to
Europe’s areas (Chapter 4). Looking (EU, 2013). Therefore, it is based on health. It is estimated that long‑term
ahead, climate change is expected to the recognition that human health and exposure to environmental noise
increasingly determine water availability, well-being are intimately linked to the contributes to at least 48 000 new cases
and thus increased focus will be needed state of the environment. The scope of of heart disease each year. Although

PART 2
BOX 14.3 Challenges, synergies and opportunities — addressing inequalities
S afeguarding human health is an

important driver for environmental
policy, but environmental risks to
Groups such as children, the elderly and
those in poor health are more vulnerable
and tend to be more adversely affected
These inequalities are only partially
addressed by current policy and
practice and are likely to continue
health do not affect everyone in the than the general population. The impacts in the future. To address this,
same way. The unequal distribution of noise, air pollution and extreme policies will need to respond to an
of environmental and socio-economic temperatures on health closely reflects ageing and increasingly vulnerable
conditions combined with pervasive socio-economic differences within population concentrated in urban
inequalities affects vulnerability to society. Groups of lower socio-economic areas and to the unequal distribution
multiple environmental pressures, status, for example the unemployed and of costs and benefits across society.
including those related to environment those on low incomes, tend to be more Enhancing coherence between
and climate. negatively affected. This is as a result social and environmental policies
both of greater exposure from living in regarding health, climate change, air
There are pronounced regional inadequate housing or areas with intense pollution and urban design will help
differences in social vulnerability and road traffic and of higher vulnerability tackle inequalities in environmental
exposure to environmental health linked to the ability to avoid or cope with risks and impacts on health and
hazards across Europe (EEA, 2019). environmental health hazards. well‑being. ■
a considerable number of people which have grown in line with more

Human health and well-being are exposed to noise and 6.5 million widespread use of chemicals. Concerns
remain affected by exposure people suffer sleep disturbance, this are also growing in relation to exposure
has remained stable since 2012 despite to neuro- and immunotoxic chemicals,
to air pollution, noise,
efforts to achieve a significant reduction. which impair childhood development and
hazardous chemicals and Looking ahead, the Environmental Noise can result in chronic disease outcomes
climate change. Directive has not yet achieved its full later in life or in successive generations.
potential. Further implementation and Looking ahead, while there is uncertainty
progress in developing quiet areas will around future developments, the
contribute to reducing the health impact accumulation of persistent chemicals
of noise and also benefit biodiversity and continued emissions of hazardous
(Chapter 11). chemicals suggest that human exposure
to complex mixtures of chemicals over
There have been improvements in a lifetime will not decrease and that
drinking and bathing water quality Europe is not on track to meet the
and both are generally of high quality objective of minimising risks to health
throughout Europe, reflecting decades from hazardous chemicals by 2020
of effort and investment. However, (Chapter 10).
some persistent and mobile chemicals
resist even advanced drinking water Climate change presents both direct and
treatment. There is a lack of robust data indirect risks to health and well-being,
on the actual exposure of the European especially for more vulnerable groups
population to hazardous chemicals, as through impacts from heat waves, forest
well as on their toxicity, to inform an fires, flooding and changing patterns in
understanding of the risks to human the prevalence of infectious diseases.
health. Concerns have been increasing Looking ahead, accelerating climate
over endocrine diseases and disorders, change is likely to further increase

PART 2
negative health effects, particularly the assessment. In relation to energy
95 %
mortality from heat waves (Chapter 7). and climate change, the prospects
Responses such as ecosystem-based differ when considering different time
adaptation have potential to reduce the horizons and prospects are better in the
vulnerability of communities to climate short term than in the longer term.
change and when designed, implemented of Europeans live in areas with
and monitored appropriately can deliver ozone pollution that is above A variety of factors contribute to this
multiple benefits, including improved picture, for example:
health and well-being.
WHO guidelines.
• While some pressures from
Looking ahead, the outlook for reducing agriculture, GHG and air pollutant
environmental risks to health and emissions and levels of resource
well‑being is uncertain. The complexity use have decreased, they remain
of systemic risks to health, coupled with some key environmental pressures. substantial.
important gaps and uncertainties in the There are differences in the scope
knowledge base, warrant a precautionary and number of themes included in • The complexity of environmental
approach. Early identification of emerging the summary table in the SOER 2015 systems can cause a considerable
issues can help ensure a higher level (EEA, 2015) and in Table 14.1 that time lag between reducing pressures
of public safety and environmental need to be taken into account in any and improvements in the state of
protection. A recent review of emerging comparison. Overall the summary and prospects for natural capital
health and environment issues table shows a similar picture to that and human health and well-being. In
highlighted a range of risks, including presented in SOER 2015 in that policies addition, legacies from the past, such as
chemicals in recycled materials, have had a clearer impact in reducing hydromorphological changes in rivers,
pharmaceuticals and illicit drugs in waste environmental pressures than in accumulated pollutants and soil sealing,
water and surface waters, and persistent protecting ecosystems and biodiversity, continue to negatively impact on
and mobile chemicals (EC, 2018c). and human health and well-being. natural capital and ecosystem services.
In conclusion, European policies have Reductions in environmental pressures • The pace of progress has slowed in
successfully reduced some risks to have not yet translated into a sufficient relation to, for example GHG emissions,
health and well-being, especially those reduction in environmental impacts, industrial emissions, waste generation,
from air pollution. However, human resulting in an outlook towards 2030 the nitrogen balance, energy efficiency,
health and well-being are still affected that is less positive than past trends the share of renewable energy and
by exposure to air pollution, noise, in many areas, particularly in relation employment in the environmental
hazardous chemicals and increasing risks to natural capital. The outlook for goods and services sector. This indicates
from climate change. Fully implementing most themes reflects a mixed picture the need to go beyond incremental
and strengthening the policies Europe regarding developments across the improvements and address the systemic
has put in place is expected to reduce wide range of factors that determine drivers behind environmental pressures,
these impacts. Developing a stronger environmental outcomes. such as resource-intensive production
framework integrating environment and and consumption patterns, increasing
health is an opportunity to take a more The prospects for meeting policy demand for transport and continuing
holistic approach in which risks to health objectives and targets show that Europe urbanisation, to achieve the scale of
are managed by considering hazard, is either not on track or only partially change needed.
exposure and vulnerability and supported on track to achieve the majority of
by a stronger knowledge base. objectives and targets included in • Environmental outcomes are often
determined by a complex mixture of
factors, as clearly illustrated by the
14.6 wide range of factors that contribute
Understanding state, trends to biodiversity loss. This can limit
and prospects
SOER 2020 shows that Europe the effectiveness of policy measures
is either not on track or only if the impacts of external pressures
Looking across the three priority areas partially on track for the counteract the effects of policy
of the 7th EAP presented in Table 14.1, measures and local management
majority of goals and targets.
Europe has made progress in reducing efforts.

PART 2
• The situation in Europe is also address include the failure to implement

influenced by global developments, as air quality legislation in urban areas,
illustrated by climate change. Europe the need to accelerate reduction of
contributes to global warming — emissions by further reducing emissions
currently 8 % of global GHG emissions from transport and agriculture, and
— while at the same time it is affected The cost of not implementing developing action plans to tackle
by changes in the global climate system. EU environmental policy environmental noise.
This includes direct effects, such as
is at least EUR 55 billion
increased risks of flooding, heat waves In addition, important policy gaps
and droughts, and also possible indirect annually. remain. For example, a coherent policy
effects triggered by climate change to protect Europe’s soils from erosion,
impacts outside Europe, such as global compaction, sealing and contamination
food price volatility or the economic is missing, and policies to curb land
repercussions of extreme weather take and land fragmentation lack clear
events. targets, measures and incentives.
Environmental Implementation Review Current policy frameworks contain few
in 2016 with the aim of improving long-term binding objectives and targets
14.7 implementation by identifying causes of (Figure 14.1), which, combined with
Supporting action — the Seventh gaps in implementation and addressing shorter and medium-term targets, can
Environment Action Programme systemic obstacles to environmental enable progress towards longer term,
enabling framework integration across policy sectors. The more strategic objectives such as the
main challenges and good practices 7th EAP’s vision for 2050.
The 7th EAP enabling framework aims are mapped across countries. A review
to support effective action to achieve undertaken by the European Parliament
the three priority objectives (POs). It on the implementation of the 7th EAP 14.7.2
contains a range of horizontal measures identified a range of issues that need Environmental integration and policy
that also aim to benefit environmental to be addressed (European Parliament, coherence
policy beyond the scope and time 2017). These are coherent with the
frame of the 7th EAP (EU, 2013). The assessments in the preceding chapters, Priority objective 7 of the 7th EAP is
focus here is on three of the key pillars which identify a range of successes and ‘to improve environmental integration
of the enabling framework, with the challenges regarding implementation. and policy coherence’ (EU, 2013).
others, namely securing investment for This reflects the fact that achieving
environment and climate policy (PO 6), Looking across the three thematic environment and climate policy
enhancing the sustainability of cities priority areas, significant gaps in objectives depends not only on effective
(PO 8) and increasing the effectiveness implementation, enforcement, financing implementation but also on integration
of addressing international environment and policy integration are affecting of the environment into other policy
and climate-related challenges (PO 9), efforts to protect European ecosystems areas. Although some progress has
as addressed in Parts 3 and 4. (EC, 2019a). While Europe has reached been made (Chapter 13), overall,
its target regarding designation of environment and climate‑related
protected areas, designation is not a concerns are not sufficiently
14.7.1 guarantee of effective management integrated into other policy areas,
Improving implementation and conservation (Chapters 3 and 6). with the common agricultural policy
However, the situation regarding (CAP) regularly identified as lacking
Priority objective 4 of the 7th EAP is a resource-efficient, circular and coherence with the 7th EAP (European
‘to maximise the benefits of Union low‑carbon economy is more positive. Parliament, 2017). The preceding
environment legislation by improving There is a good level of implementation chapters have also highlighted the
implementation’ (EU, 2013). A recent of climate legislation and the 2020 need for improved coherence between
study estimated that the total costs targets will be met. However, waste the common fisheries policy, the CAP
to society of current gaps in the management and waste prevention and biodiversity objectives (Chapter 3)
implementation of environmental have been identified as problematic and between rural development
policy is at least EUR 55 billion annually issues (EC, 2019a; European Parliament, plans under the CAP and the Water
(COWI and Eunomia, 2019). The 2017). Regarding environmental risks Framework Directive (Chapter 4) and
European Commission launched the to health and well-being, key areas to chemical and waste management

PART 2
policies (Chapter 9). Strengthening as systemic and integrated approaches

environmental integration into policy that address natural capital, climate
areas such as agriculture, transport, change, resource use and environment
industry and energy, and EU spending and health challenges in a broader
programmes is essential, but the overall sustainability context.
approach of environmental integration System transitions are needed
has not been successful when it comes to achieve the EU’s 2050 While the interrelated nature of the
to addressing environmental pressures priority objectives of the 7th EAP
vision of a sustainable,
from economic sectors. provide an opportunity to harness
climate-neutral economy. synergies across policy areas and
scales, this also presents challenges
14.7.3 in terms of addressing issues in an
The knowledge base for integrated way. Gaps remain between
environmental policy ambitions, for example that ‘structural
changes in production, technology and
Priority objective 5 of the 7th EAP is ‘to and modelling of scenarios in relation innovation as well as consumption
improve the knowledge and evidence to climate, energy, air pollutants and patterns and lifestyles have reduced
base for Union environmental policy’ transport. the overall impact of production and
(EU, 2013). The summary assessment consumption in the food, housing
tables in Chapters 3-12 provide and mobility sectors’ and the largely
information on the robustness of the 14.8 thematic and sectoral focus of current
knowledge base underpinning the Looking ahead: the Seventh actions. Indeed, the evaluation of the
assessments in terms of the quality Environment Action Plan vision, 7th EAP highlights that the ecological
of the evidence, uncertainty and the Paris Agreement and the impacts of the mobility sector and food
knowledge gaps across the range of Sustainable Development Goals system remain too high (EC, 2019b).
environmental themes. Regarding
natural capital, important developments The recent evaluation of the 7th EAP A major opportunity exists in relation
such as the MAES process and the highlights its value in providing to the climate-neutral, circular and
EU knowledge innovation project on a framework that has enabled bioeconomy strategies in the EU.
natural capital accounting (KIP INCA) stakeholders to come together These frameworks rely on the same
will strengthen the knowledge base to set priorities and one that has natural resource base; therefore, more
for policy and decision-making. The contributed to greater coherence in and integrated management of natural
knowledge base is improving regarding commitment to EU and national policies resources, including consideration
the impacts of climate change and and actions. The consensus built of potential synergies and trade-offs,
species loss on ecosystem services around the 7th EAP has also helped would enable more effective reduction
(European Parliament, 2017). Regarding European countries speak with one of environmental pressures along
environmental risks to health, voice in the global context in relation the value chain. This would improve
important gaps remain in relation to to the SDGs and the Paris Agreement consistency between producer and
chemicals, particularly the effects of (EC, 2019b). consumer-oriented policy interventions
exposure to mixtures (Chapter 10) and bring a spatial perspective
and the interaction between systemic Efforts over recent decades on policy that respects ecosystem functions,
risks and other health determinants implementation and integration prioritises conservation measures and
(European Parliament, 2017). mean that Europe’s environment is accounts for the dynamics of the wider
in better shape than it would have countryside.
Looking across the three priority areas, been otherwise, providing a solid
there are also differences regarding foundation for future developments. Looking ahead, achieving the 2050
the availability of forward-looking However, the value of this can be vision of the 7th EAP, as well as
information. Outlook information is very expected to decline over time as Europe’s related vision for a sustainable
limited or lacking for many areas related impacts on the climate, ecosystems economy, will require system transitions
to natural capital or environmental risks and human health are expected to supported by new types of knowledge,
to health and well‑being. There is much persist or increase. This points to the policy design and governance
better availability of outlook information, need for further efforts regarding policy arrangements. These aspects are
particularly quantitative projections implementation and integration, as well assessed more fully in Parts 3 and 4.

2
PART 3
Sustainability
prospects
3
15.
Sustainability
through
a system lens
4
© Eszter Barbara Bakó, My City/EEA
5
par A
PART 2
Summary
• The EU has committed to • The Sustainable Development
ambitious, long-term environmental Goals (SDGs) framework exemplifies
and climate goals with the aim the systemic nature of sustainability
of ‘living well, within the limits of issues. Achieving the SDGs and other
our planet’, but current measures are long-term sustainability goals requires
insufficient to achieve these goals. considering their interactions,
including trade-offs, co-benefits
• Many global megatrends continue and transboundary effects between
to intensify persistent environmental Europe and the rest of the world.
problems, while emerging trends Designing policy frameworks that
are increasingly influential in shaping pursue these goals requires systems
environmental outcomes. They embed thinking.
both risks and opportunities
for Europe and its environment, • While many systems perspectives
as illustrated by recent social exist, The European environment — state
and technological innovations. and outlook 2020 (SOER 2020) focuses
on three key systems — those meeting
• Overall, Europe can act on these European demand for food, energy and
drivers of change to shape mobility — while providing relevant
a sustainable future. insights on other societal systems.
• Persistent environmental and

climate problems resist traditional
policy responses. They cannot be fully
resolved without addressing broader
sustainability issues that address
environmental, social, economic
and governance dimensions at the
European and global scales.
6 SOER2020/Sustainability through a system lens

PART 3
15.
Sustainability
through a system lens
15.1 against environmental pressures and

From environment risks to health and well-being (EU, 2013).
to sustainability In line with this vision, the EU and
its Member States have adopted
15.1.1 ambitious environmental and climate
The EU has committed to ambitious ‘Living well, within the limits targets and objectives. These include
environmental and climate goals of our planet’ is the EU’s the legally binding objective to cut GHG
emissions to at least 40 % below 1990
In recent decades, Europe has
sustainability vision for 2050. levels by 2030 (European Council, 2014),
increasingly recognised the significance and the ambition to cut GHG emissions
of many environmental and climate by 80-95 % by 2050 (EC, 2011a). In 2018,
challenges at both European and the European Commission published its
planetary scales. In particular, it has strategic long-term vision for
become aware of the increased risks a prosperous, modern, competitive and
— environmental, social, economic and unprecedented scales. Likewise, it has climate-neutral European economy
geopolitical — for Europe and recognised that accelerated depletion by 2050, which shows how Europe
the world in relation to transgressing and degradation of ecosystems can lead the way to climate neutrality
global ecological limits related to climate, continuously erodes nature’s capacity while ensuring a socially fair and just
resource use, pollution, biodiversity to deliver the services that underpin transition (EC, 2018a).
loss and ecosystem degradation (EU, almost every aspect of human well-being
2013; EC, 2019). For example, it has and thereby jeopardises sustainable Other long-term objectives include
acknowledged that, without strong development (Chapter 1). achieving no net land take by 2050,
measures to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) halting the loss of biodiversity and
emissions, continued global warming Against this backdrop, the EU has set the degradation of ecosystem services,
will substantially increase the likelihood itself an ambitious vision for 2050 with and producing and using chemicals in
of severe, pervasive and irreversible the aim of ‘living well, within the limits ways that minimise significant adverse
consequences such as the collapse of our planet’ and a focus on three key effects on human health and the
of natural ecosystems (Arctic, coral reefs, objectives: (1) protecting natural capital; environment. Recognising that ‘many
Amazon forest), erosion of global food (2) achieving resource efficiency and environmental challenges are global and
security or displacement of people at decarbonisation; and (3) safeguarding can only be fully addressed through
SOER 2020/Sustainability through a system lens 337

PART 3
a comprehensive global approach’ delivered major improvements in living

(EU, 2013), it has also promoted, standards and well-being since the 1950s
shaped and endorsed two major, highly have been the source of unprecedented
significant, long-term global, agreements. environmental degradation in Europe
The United Nations (UN) 2030 agenda and worldwide and of anthropogenic
for sustainable development includes Many long-term EU changes to the climate system.
long-term goals and targets covering all If environmental problems, such as
environment and climate
critical environmental and climate issues, biodiversity loss and climate change, have
while the Paris Agreement establishes
targets will not be met with been resistant to policy interventions
the international goal of limiting global existing policy interventions. over several decades, it is mainly because
warming to well below 2 °C above their underlying causes have been
pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts insufficiently or ineffectively tackled.
to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C
above pre-industrial levels (Chapter 2). Ultimately, the environmental pressures
air pollution, noise, hazardous chemicals related to energy use, extraction
and, increasingly, risks resulting from of natural resources, chemical use,
15.1.2 climate change (Chapter 14). land use, waste generation, and so on,
Despite progress, the EU is not originate from the same production
on track to reach many In fact, some objectives and targets have and consumption processes that
environmental goals been renewed over the years, without provide societal needs such as food,
signs of significant progress. For instance, mobility, heating and shelter (EEA, 2015).
Viewed together, the thematic and the EU first set the target of halting As research and policy increasingly
sectoral assessments in this report biodiversity loss in the EU by 2010. When acknowledge, resolving persistent
(Chapters 3-13) present a worrying this was not achieved, it set the same environmental problems will require
outlook for Europe’s environment target for 2020 (EC, 2006, 2011b). Despite more ambitious, upstream and
in the coming decades. They lead many local conservation successes, comprehensive responses than those
to the conclusion that many long-term EU for instance through the extension provided by past environmental policy
environment and climate targets will not of the Natura 2000 network of protected interventions (Chapter 2). The scale
be met with existing policy interventions areas, the mid-term review of the EU and complexity of the challenge for
if current trends continue (Chapter 14). biodiversity strategy to 2020 reported ‘no governance is augmented by the impacts
This applies, for example, to the EU’s significant progress’ towards the headline of global megatrends on Europe and
ambitious objectives to reduce GHG target (EC, 2015), an assessment further its environment.
emissions. Although these targets are supported by the analysis in Chapter 3.
in line with the global goal set by the
Paris Agreement, the projected pace 15.1.4
of reducing GHG emissions after 2020 15.1.3 Many global megatrends continue to
is clearly insufficient to achieve them Persistent environmental problems intensify environmental problems
(Chapter 7). resist traditional policy responses
There is widespread consensus that
More short-term objectives and While some explanation for these shortfalls many global megatrends — large-scale,
targets will not be met for a range can be found in implementation deficits high‑impact and long-term trends
of environmental issues related to or time lags between implementation — are likely to affect Europe and its
natural capital and environmental and measurable ecological changes environment strongly in the coming
impacts on health and well-being. For (Chapter 14), this diagnosis triggers more decades (EEA (forthcoming), 2020b).
example, Europe will not achieve good fundamental questions. Have we truly A growing global population and the
environmental status for all of its water recognised the scale of change required emergence of an affluent middle class
bodies and regional seas by 2020, nor will to achieve Europe’s environmental goals? across the world, is accelerating global
it achieve sustainable soil management. Have we fully understood the reasons demand for materials, land, water
It is not on track to minimise significant for the persistence of environmental and energy, with cascading effects
adverse effects of chemicals on and climate problems? on ecosystems and climate change
the environment by 2020. The health (Chapter 1). With European industrial
and well-being of European citizens still As emphasised in Chapter 1, the very regions already facing a number of
suffers substantially from exposure to same human activities that have challenges regarding access to both
338 SOER 2020/Sustainability through a system lens

PART 3
primary and secondary raw materials through sufficiency). Similarly, many

(EC, 2017a), these trends put Europe at emerging trends related to technological
further risk of supply shortages. This innovation, such as blockchain
could result in increased pressures technology, synthetic biology, artificial
on natural resources in Europe (EEA meat or drones, bring new opportunities
(forthcoming), 2020b). Global megatrends for Europe and its environment,
are likely to have major as well as new risks (Box 15.1). Amid this
Turning to a technological perspective, uncertainty, one conclusion emerges:
the widespread digitalisation of
impacts on Europe the future is open and it can be shaped.
economies and societies worldwide is and its environment. Europe can either be carried along by
expected to continue shaping European ongoing trends or it can seek to bend
production and consumption profoundly them towards a more sustainable
(Chapter 1). While digitalisation creates trajectory. As agents of change who can
a wide range of opportunities for society, shape or adapt to drivers of change,
the overall implications for the European environment. But other drivers of the EU and European citizens are not
environment are uncertain. Digitalisation change, such as more Europe-specific powerless in their efforts to live well,
can foster product traceability trends and emerging trends, suggest a within the limits of our planet.
(e.g. blockchain — see Box 15.1) and more open and nuanced outlook. For
efficiency gains in production processes. instance, in contrast to many world
However, the exponential increase regions, stagnating population trends 15.1.6
in personal connected devices and in Europe potentially offer a more Environmental issues are inseparable
sensors (e.g. related to the Internet of favourable context for decreasing the from broader sustainability issues
Things) requires increased infrastructure environmental pressures resulting from
deployment and energy consumption, European consumption (Chapter 16). The scale of environmental challenges
leading to additional environmental On the other hand, ageing population and the implications of global
pressures (EEA (forthcoming), 2020b). trends in Europe could lead to higher megatrends together imply the need for
Moreover, the increasingly short lifespan domestic energy demand, for example fundamental and urgent changes in our
of such devices contributes to a rapid due to increased heating and cooking societies and economies, with significant
increase in waste electrical and electronic linked to a higher proportion of smaller consequences for lifestyles, jobs, habits,
equipment (WEEE) and associated households (Bardazzi and Pazienza, and so on. Resolving environmental
problems of recycling and disposal. 2017). They may also bring substantial problems inevitably implies the need to
challenges for fiscal and financial address broader sustainability issues.
From a geopolitical perspective, increased sustainability (EEA (forthcoming), 2020a). It raises questions about ‘how our
volatility and tensions in the global Ultimately, much depends on how much system of prosperity [can] be maintained’
multilateral system (EPSC, 2018; MSC, individual consumption levels within local and global ecological
2019) may jeopardise the implementation and patterns can change in Europe. limits (Hajer, 2011). This presents a
of existing global agreements, such as fundamentally different challenge from
the Paris Agreement, and compromise To assess this, it is essential to pay those of the 1970s or 1980s, when
further concerted international more attention to emerging trends that specific environmental problems could
action on other environmental issues carry the seeds of change. For instance, be tackled with targeted instruments.
(EEA (forthcoming), 2020b). With key promising social innovations originating The complex and systemic character of
countries tempted to turn their backs on from citizens, cities and communities, today’s sustainability challenges requires
multilateral agreements, ‘Europe will have such as collaborative consumption, a different policy response.
to deploy environmental diplomacy in have recently emerged as new ways of
a hitherto unseen way’ (ESPAS, 2019). consuming (EEA, 2015). While these more First, policy interventions must be
sustainable behaviours remain niche designed to consider the environmental,
for the time being, their mainstreaming social, economic and governance
15.1.5 into everyday practice could decrease dimensions of human activities,
Drivers of change embed both risks environmental pressures from which are interconnected in many
and opportunities consumption, particularly if accompanied ways. Significant changes in any one
by changes in product design (EEA, dimension (e.g. environmental) will
Many global megatrends have 2017) and lower standards of material affect the others (e.g. socio-economic)
worrying implications for Europe’s consumption in European lifestyles (e.g. in ways that are sometimes beneficial,

PART 3
BOX 15.1 Emerging trends: four examples related to technological innovation
A ssessing prospects for the

environment in a fast-changing
world requires considering not only
mainstreaming of blockchain also raises
concerns in relation to climate change
mitigation, as the current processes for
(GHG) emissions from livestock, which
account for a significant proportion of
all anthropogenic emissions, i.e. 14.5 %
environmental trends and global transaction verification, or ‘mining’, are according to the United Nations Food
megatrends but also emerging trends. highly energy intensive. and Agriculture Organization’s global
Although fewer data are available to life cycle approach (Gerber et al., 2013).
characterise these societal, technological, Synthetic biology, which involves the Even if the production costs of artificial
economic and geopolitical developments, assembly of entirely new sequences meat decrease in the coming years,
it is crucial to anticipate their potential of DNA and entire genomes, is already its mainstreaming will remain largely
implications as early as possible. In being applied in the pharmaceutical, dependent on its societal acceptance
the field of technological innovation, chemical, agricultural and energy sectors. (e.g. cultural and psychological barriers) as
for instance, there are some rapidly Promising uses for environmental well as on reliable food safety protocols.
emerging trends that are likely to have protection include bioremediation
significant impacts on the environment, of polluted industrial sites, pollution Drones are increasingly used for delivery
as well as on society and the economy detection, protection of species at risk, by e-commerce and the logistics industry,
(EEA and FLIS, 2019). Examples include: and bio-based products (Science for potentially providing a significant
Environment Policy, 2016). Nevertheless, contribution to reducing GHG emissions
Blockchain, which consists of an open, its application to control disease vectors, from the transport sector. Indeed, recent
distributed and public computer-based for example by genetically engineering research shows that delivery drones can
ledger for transactions, illustrates the new mosquitoes to prevent the spread of outperform conventional delivery trucks
opportunities offered by digitalisation. Its malaria, could disrupt ecosystems in (Goodchild and Toy, 2018), diesel vans
applications, such as cryptocurrencies (e.g. unexpected ways and lead to biodiversity (Figliozzi, 2017) and motorcycles (Park
bitcoin) and decentralised autonomous loss (CBD, 2015). et al., 2018) in terms of GHG emissions.
organisations, could radically transform However, an assessment of the whole
existing governance arrangements, Artificial meat, which refers to meat life cycle of drones (including extra
electoral procedures and financial cultivated in vitro from stem cells of warehousing, battery use, etc.) has yet
transactions. Environmental protection living animals, may offer an alternative to be performed. The mainstreaming of
could benefit, for example, from and novel solution to the rising global delivery drones would also bring new
increased traceability and accountability demand for meat consumption threats to wildlife, especially birds, and
in supply chain management (especially in Asia). Its mainstreaming create additional noise and visual impacts
(Kouhizadeh and Sarkis, 2018). However, could help to decrease greenhouse gas in urban environments. ■
sometimes detrimental, and often provokes questions about how policy

The complex nature of uncertain (Chapter 16). can trigger systemic change that engages
society as a whole (Chapter 17).
the sustainability challenge Second, the roots of environmental
requires a new policy degradation and climate change are Third, patterns and mechanisms of
response. so intrinsically linked to the structure consumption and production co‑evolve
and functioning of our societies and with each other not only at the European
economies — in Europe but also in most scale but also internationally through
advanced economies throughout the trade, communication, policy and
world — that our long-term environment knowledge transfers (see Section 15.2).
and climate goals will not be achieved This means that the response to
without fundamental transformations in sustainability issues affecting Europe
the ways we consume and produce. This is generally not just a European

PART 3
response but one that requires strong triggering cascading effects. Box 15.2
coordination among the international Achieving the SDGs implies a outlines a systemic approach that
community. For instance, achieving aims to unpack these interactions in
need to consider
climate neutrality in Europe by 2050 a manner that supports more robust
will have only a limited effect on their interactions, trade-offs implementation strategies (EEA and
climate change mitigation (and its and co-benefits. SEI, 2019).
impacts) if other countries do not take
similar action. The Paris Agreement
and the 2030 agenda for sustainable 15.2.2
development are encouraging signs of The SDGs highlight European-global
this international alignment. as both require the use of agricultural interactions
land, which is an increasingly scarce
resource (Chapter 16). However, there In addition to the interactions between
15.2 is growing recognition of the multiple different SDGs in Europe, the global
The systemic nature of co-benefits that protecting, conserving, character of the SDGs implies the need
sustainability issues enhancing and restoring natural capital to acknowledge interactions with efforts
(SDGs 14 and 15) provide for health to achieve them in other world regions.
15.2.1 and well-being objectives (SDG 3). For In line with the EU’s commitment
The Sustainable Development Goals instance, ecosystem-based approaches, to ‘foster the sustainable economic,
cannot be pursued successfully in such as green infrastructure and social and environmental development
isolation nature-based solutions, can fulfil several of developing countries’ (EU, 2007),
functions on the same piece of land progress towards the SDGs in the EU
The SDGs framework offers the most such as helping to reduce air pollution, should not compromise progress in
comprehensive and widely shared mitigating heat stress, reducing noise other regions but rather support it. This
view of our common sustainability in urban environments and providing focus is at the core of policy coherence
challenges worldwide (see Figure 2.1 opportunities for increased physical for sustainable development, which has
in Chapter 2 for a description of the activity and improved mental health been endorsed by the EU and applied
SDGs). The 2030 agenda for sustainable (Chapters 3, 6 and 17). in some areas. In particular, the EU
development calls on governments has been a frontrunner in ensuring
and other stakeholders to achieve Studying the interactions between coherence between its trade and
17 SDGs and 169 associated targets, different societal goals is not development policies, especially for the
bringing together economic, social and something new. It is at the core of least developed countries (EC, 2018b).
environmental considerations in ways research on sustainability. Indeed, It is increasingly recognised that
that mutually reinforce each other. The policy integration and coherence has achieving the SDGs will now require
UN has stressed that the agenda should been on the agendas of international the mainstreaming of this approach
be viewed as an indivisible whole in organisations (e.g. Organisation (OECD, 2018; EC, 2019).
which all targets are equally important. for Economic Co-operation and
As the goals are closely interlinked, Development, UN Environment) and This endeavour should start with
however, pursuing them concurrently European and national institutions for a better understanding of the
implies the need to consider their some time (Chapter 2). At the EU level, transboundary effects of EU measures
interactions. This brings both challenges all proposed legislation goes through to achieve the SDGs. Transmission
and opportunities for policies and an impact assessment, which needs channels are numerous and include
implementation. to include a description of potential financial flows, imports and exports
environmental, social and economic of goods and services (especially
Some of these interactions are impacts. Although such assessments through global value chains), diffusion
now well known and have been are valuable, they are insufficient to of waste and pollution (e.g. to the EU’s
acknowledged (sometimes after a address sustainability issues, which neighbourhood), migration (e.g. the
delay) by policymakers. For example, require an awareness of the systemic ‘brain drain’) or knowledge transfers
the case of first-generation biofuels has interactions between the societal (OECD, 2017). As regards environment
made it clear that the goal of increasing outcomes pursued by various policies. protection and climate action, the
bioenergy production (SDGs 7 and 13) Indeed, pursuing any single SDG target pursuit of SDG targets in Europe can
can easily enter into conflict with the does not affect other targets in a binary potentially lead to the externalisation
goal of fostering food security (SDG 2), way but rather systemically, potentially of the same environmental problems

PART 3
BOX 15.2 SDG interactions
I n 2016, a framework for mapping and

categorising Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) interactions was proposed,
other SDGs (such as SDGs 1 and 7-11)
potentially involve trade-offs. The
main reason is that increased income
already accounts for about 7 % of global
carbon dioxide emissions, which makes
it the single largest sector in terms of
using a seven-point scale to describe (SDG 1), better access to energy (SDG 7), industrial emissions (Pérez‑Fortes et al.,
the nature of interactions. (Nilsson more economic growth (SDG 8), and 2014). Thus, there is a clear tension with
et al., 2016; Griggs et al., 2017). The industrial and infrastructure investments climate change mitigation (SDG 13). To
methodology was further developed by (SDG 9) tend to increase overall meet the SDGs, the Paris Agreement
the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) consumption and natural resource and EU targets for reducing emissions
to assess SDG interactions in different extraction. They therefore make it from steel production to near zero by
contexts. By adding cross‑impact analysis harder to achieve targets on efficient 2050, while promoting a thriving steel
(Figure 15.1) and using network analysis use of natural resources (target 12.2), industry within the EU, a systemic
techniques, it provides a systemic and better management of chemicals and change all the way from production to
contextual perspective on the SDGs waste (target 12.4), climate mitigation recycling is needed (Åhman et al., 2018).
(Griggs et al., 2017; Weitz et al., 2018). (target 13.2) and protection of terrestrial In Sweden, three companies focusing
The results show, for example, which ecosystems and biodiversity (targets 15.1 on iron ore mining, steel manufacturing
targets are most and least influential for and 15.5). Acknowledging these tensions and power utility have joined forces
making progress on the SDGs, where more explicitly reinforces the call for to develop a novel process for fossil
there are critical trade-offs and synergies, alternative pathways for sustainable fuel-free steel production (Åhman
and where stakeholders have shared development. et al., 2018). Such an initiative moves
or conflicting interests. This is useful to beyond capture and storage of carbon
guide priority‑setting and cross-sector The example of steel can illustrate how dioxide as the approach for limiting
collaboration for implementing the SDGs. important the choice of interventions will climate impacts from heavy industry
be when trying to achieve societal goals to avoiding emissions being generated
When applying the analysis at the EU that are potentially conflicting. Steel is in the first place. It tries to address
scale (EEA and SEI, 2019), the SDG a central component of an industrial fully the trade‑off between SDGs 9 and
framework reveals many synergies. society and thus for progress on SDG 9. 13 through better internalisation of
However, the relationship between The global demand for steel is expected negative effects from industrialisation
SDGs 12-15, crucial for environmental to increase with increasing economic and infrastructure development in the
protection and climate action, and development, and steel production long term. ■
or the creation of other kinds of • environmental pressures • unintended consequences of

challenges in other countries, (e.g. SDGs 6, 7, 12, 14, 15) on resources biofuel subsidies (SDG 7) on food prices
reducing their chances of achieving or conditions in other countries that through competition for land, possibly
those SDGs. This ‘burden shifting’ are attributable to EU consumption impacting the food security of the most
could negatively affect the global (SDGs 8 and 12) (see Chapters 2 and 16 vulnerable households in developing
achievement of the SDGs and could on footprint indicators), for example countries (SDG 2);
also feed back negatively on Europe in deforestation in producing countries
areas relating to the global commons resulting from EU imports (e.g. palm • shifting production abroad as
(e.g. climate change mitigation, oil, soybean, exotic woods); a result of stringent EU policies on
healthy oceans). Key externalities biodiversity conservation, reduced
to be considered in the field of • adverse impacts of EU reliance on use of agricultural inputs or climate
environment and climate action energy-intensive imports (SDG 7) on mitigation (SDGs 2 and 13-15), leading
include (Lucas et al., 2016; OECD, the decarbonisation efforts of other to a potential increase in unsustainable
2017, 2018): countries (SDG 13); agricultural practices and polluting

PART 3
FIGURE 15.1 Visualising SDG interactions
Zoom in on SDGs 12, 13, 14 and 15

GOAL OR TARGET
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12.2 12.4 13.1 13.2 14.2 14.4 15.1 15.5 16 17
SDG 1
SDG 2
SDG 3
SDG 4
SDG 5
SDG 6
SDG 7
SDG 8
SDG 9
SDG 10
SDG 11
Target 12.2
Target 12.4
Target 13.1
Target 13.2
Target 14.2
Target 14.4
Target 15.1
Target 15.5
SDG 16
SDG 17
Cancelling Counteracting Constraining Consistent Enabling Reinforcing Indivisible
Source: EEA and SEI (2019).
industries in those countries (SDGs 2, eastern neighbourhood countries

3, 14, 15); is a good example of the latter
(EEA, 2018a, 2019).
• cross-border impacts of air and
water pollution (SDGs 6 and 12).
15.2.3 The 2030 agenda
There are obviously many positive The 2030 agenda aims for systemic for sustainable development
externalities, especially those transformation
linked to trade, investments, official
embraces the notion
development assistance, diffusion In addition to recognising systemic of transformation.
of innovation and exchange of challenges, the 2030 agenda for
environmental information and sustainable development embraces the
knowledge. The EEA’s cooperation notion of transformation, as expressed
with the EU’s southern and in its main title Transforming our world

PART 3
(UN, 2015). World leaders have declared system, which comprises multiple
that they are ‘determined to take the SOER 2020 focuses on three actors with diverse interests and values,
bold and transformative steps which provides a richer understanding of the
critical societal systems:
are urgently needed to shift the world system and the associated sustainability
onto a sustainable and resilient path’
energy, food and mobility. challenges’ (EEA, 2016). It does so by
(UN, 2015). In recent years, this has been mobilising systems lenses that allow
echoed and expanded on by a large the observation of natural and social
number of international organisations phenomena at the right scale,
and initiatives, which share the ambition by zooming in and out, and looking
of bringing ‘transformative change’, for underlying structures and patterns
‘transitions’ or ‘system transitions’ into activities that either are expected to (Chapter 16). It also complements
the heart of their assessments. Such decline or will have to transform in traditional modes of problem‑solving
assessments include The World in 2050 the future.’ (EC, 2018a). They therefore with more solutions-oriented
(TWI2050, 2018); the IPCC Special Report stress the need for transitions that are approaches (Chapter 17).
Global warming of 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018); socially fair, ‘for the benefit of all, leaving
Future Earth’s work on Transformations no one behind, ensuring equality and As systems are ultimately mental
(Future Earth, 2019); the Global inclusiveness’ (EC, 2019). constructs, a variety of systems lenses
assessment report on biodiversity and can — and should — be used to shed
ecosystem services (IPBES, 2019); and light on sustainability issues, in order to
The Sixth Global Environmental Outlook 15.3 draw on contrasting but complementary
(UN Environment, 2019). For instance, Understanding and responding knowledge. Decades of research in
The World in 2050 highlights the need for to sustainability challenges academic fields such as complexity
‘bold and appropriate changes in values science, ecology, sustainability science,
and deployment of policy instruments’ 15.3.1 evolutionary economics or innovation
to foster six key transformations related Achieving sustainability goals will studies have produced a variety of
to human capacity and demography; require systems thinking relevant systems approaches, providing
consumption and production; insights into the environment, climate
decarbonisation and energy; food, As shown in previous sections and and sustainability challenges and
biosphere and water; smart cities; exemplified by the SDGs, sustainability possible responses. Among them,
and the digital revolution. challenges are systemic in nature and the socio-ecological, socio-technical
require systemic responses. Policies and socio-economic approaches offer
At the European level, the proposed and decisions that take a systemic complementary perspectives on different
long-term climate-neutral strategy view of sustainability issues based on kinds of interactions, as well as on
stresses that the options it proposes ‘will science‑informed analysis have a better different temporal and geographical
radically transform our energy system, chance of long-term success. As stressed scales (EEA, 2018b).
land and agriculture sector, modernise by the European Commission, ‘isolated,
our industrial fabric and our transport piecemeal approaches have proven to
systems and cities, further affecting be ineffective. We need to formulate 15.3.2
all activities of our society’ (EC, 2018a). strategies that are comprehensive and This report focuses on three key
Similarly, the European Commission’s integrated.’ In the EU, this implies, for systems for transformation
reflection paper, Towards a sustainable example, a thorough consideration
Europe by 2030, acknowledges the of the systemic interactions between While the need for societal
need for ‘a transition to a low-carbon, the climate-neutral economy, the transformation is increasingly recognised
climate‑neutral, resource-efficient and circular economy and the bioeconomy in sustainability science and policy, the
biodiverse economy in full compliance frameworks (Chapters 16 and 17). question of which systems need to be
with the United Nations 2030 Agenda and addressed is less settled. Following the
the 17 SDGs’ (EC, 2019). Both documents From a knowledge perspective, conclusions of SOER 2015, The European
emphasise that the various dimensions of adopting a systemic view, also referred environment — state and outlook 2015,
sustainability are inextricably intertwined. to as ‘systems thinking’, helps in the two following chapters focus in
They acknowledge that transitions will approaching and reflecting on the particular on three key systems: those
have difficult implications for a number complex or ‘wicked’ problems facing meeting Europe’s demand for energy,
of sectors and regions, particularly Europe. For example, ‘recognising the food and mobility. These are selected
those ‘whose economies depend on food system as a complex adaptive for attention because of their key role

PART 3
FIGURE 15.2 Ecosystems and production-consumption systems
ECOSYSTEMS
CONSUMPTION
TION- SYS
DUC TE
O Values owledge M
PR Kn S
s
Indu try haviour
Be
Energy Mobility
system system
Resources
Waste and
and ecosystem
emissions
services
Food
system
M arket Te
c h n olo gy
nf r
ras
I
tructu P o li c y
Source: EEA.
in supporting European societies, their which they are understood in relation relate to sustainability challenges.
substantial environmental impacts and to the ecosystems that they depend It emphasises the cross-cutting nature
their prominence on — both as a source of natural of those sustainability challenges,
in EU policy frameworks. The three resources and ecosystem services encompassing environmental, social and
systems also differ in character, and as a sink for waste and emissions economic dimensions, and it reflects on
illustrating contrasting challenges (Figure 15.2). knowledge needs, societal perspectives
and varying degrees of progress in and policy approaches. Drawing on a
achieving transitions (Chapter 16). On this basis, the next two chapters growing body of research and practice
Collectively, they offer valuable insights provide more detailed assessments of increasingly recognised by international
for understanding other important the systemic challenges facing Europe organisations (OECD, 2016; IPCC, 2018),
production-consumption systems, such and how the EU can respond. Chapter Chapter 17 explores how European
as those relating to housing, clothing 16 illustrates how current configurations governments and societies can more
or consumer goods. These of key production-consumption systems broadly address systemic barriers
production-consumption systems are (food, energy and mobility) and Europe’s to change and achieve fundamental
considered within a broader frame, in overall consumption patterns and levels transitions to sustainability.

16.
Understanding
sustainability
challenges
2
© Lorenzo Gaudenzi, My City/EEA
3
par A
PART 3
Summary
• European consumption is tied to • Links between production- • Drivers of change at different
economic growth and living standards consumption systems create additional scales present challenges and
but also drives environmental challenges. Addressing problems also opportunities for transitions.
impacts across the world. Europe’s in one system may shift the burden or Production-consumption systems will
environmental footprint is much produce other trade-offs or unexpected undergo transformations in coming
higher than the global average. outcomes — partly because the systems decades. Europe can either be carried
rely on a shared natural capital base. along by these events or it can actively
• The food, energy, and mobility shape them.
systems account for much of Europe’s • The resource nexus
pressures on the environment and approach can help understand
health, and are linked to many the combined pressures from
dimensions of human well-being. production‑consumption systems,
These systems must be transformed manage system interactions within
to achieve Europe’s sustainability environmental limits and promote
objectives. policy coherence.
• In production-consumption • Production-consumption systems

systems, the co-evolution of system vary greatly across Europe, implying
elements — technologies, regulations, that actions must be tailored to local
infrastructures, behaviours, etc. — realities. Technology-focused measures
creates lock-ins and other barriers should be complemented with
to change. approaches addressing consumption
levels and behaviours.
4 SOER 2020/Understanding sustainability challenges

PART 3
16.
Understanding
sustainability challenges
16.1 Agriculture accounts for only 2 % of

The need to transform European GVA and employment but contributes
consumption and production significantly to environmental pressures
(Chapter 13).
The EU has achieved unprecedented
levels of prosperity and well-being Europe needs to achieve Trade has always been fundamentally
during recent decades, and its social, important for the European economy,
fundamental changes
health and environmental standards reflecting its open character and high
rank among the highest in the world.
in core systems of production dependence on natural resources
These achievements are considerable. and consumption. from around the world (Section 1.5).
Yet, as outlined in Chapter 15, Europe Internationally, the 28 EU Member
today needs to achieve urgent and States (EU-28) represent the second
fundamental changes in its core systems largest exporter and importer of goods,
of production and consumption if it is accounting for 16 % of global exports
to sustain and enhance its progress and 15 % of global imports (extra-EU)
to achieving sustainability goals. Building by value in 2018 (Eurostat, 2019b).
on that assessment, this chapter European economy has progressively In physical terms, the EU imports mainly
provides a more detailed analysis of shifted from an industry-intensive raw products (more than 60 % of total
the need for sustainability transitions structure towards a service economy. imports), such as biomass, metals,
and the challenges that this entails. This shift has been more rapid since non‑metallic minerals and fuels, as
the 1990s, although there is significant inputs to production. It exports primarily
variability between European countries finished goods for final and industrial
16.1.1 (OECD, 2019; Eurostat, 2018g). consumption (more than 50 % of all
Europe’s economy and its The service sector now accounts for physical exports) (Eurostat, 2018j).
environmental implications some three quarters of EU gross
value added (GVA), with agriculture, The EU is highly dependent on metal
Europe has gone through a series of industry and construction accounting ores and fossil fuel resources from
major industrial transformations during for the remainder (Eurostat, 2018g). the rest of the world. Reliable access
the past two and a half centuries. A similar distribution can be observed to critical raw materials has become
In recent decades, the structure of the for employment (Eurostat, 2018c). a growing concern, as many are used
SOER 2020/Understanding sustainability challenges 349

PART 3
in high-tech products and emerging human and ecological toxicity (Beylot

innovations such as information and Europe’s rising levels et al., 2019b).
communications technology (ICT)-related
of affluence drive existing
and renewable energy technologies (EC, Purchases of services (e.g. health,
2018e; Chapter 9). For fossil fuels, the environmental pressures education, restaurant meals and hotels)
heaviest reliance is on oil, hard coal and and create new ones. account for 25 % of EU expenditure
natural gas, making Europe vulnerable (Eurostat, 2018h) and for a significant
to supply and energy price shocks. At share of impacts associated with EU-28
the same time, fossil fuel combustion final consumption. Such services rely
is the major source of greenhouse gas on large inputs of products from other
(GHG) emissions and air pollution, and sectors, such as food, machinery or
it contributes significantly to ecosystem gas and other fuels) (Eurostat, 2019a). electricity. This means that their overall
degradation. In recent years, Europeans have spent environmental footprint (i.e. the direct
relatively less on basic needs such as and indirect environmental pressures
Imported raw and intermediate products food, clothing and furnishings, and more generated by the consumption of
such as iron and steel, rubber and plastics on ICT (a four-fold increase in spending), goods and services) is often higher or
result in emissions of toxic substances, recreation and culture, and health. much higher than that associated with
as well as a significant use of energy manufacturing (EEA, 2014b).
over their production cycle (Nuss and An average European citizen in the
Eckelman, 2014). Overall, they represent EU-28 spends 3.4 times more on goods
the largest contributors to impacts on and services than the world average 16.1.2
human and ecosystem health associated (World Bank, 2018), while energy Environmental footprints, trends
with European imports (Sala et al., consumption per capita is almost twice and decoupling
2019). Imports of solid biomass, biofuels the global average (OECD/IEA, 2014).
and bioliquids contribute directly to In the EU-28, there are more than Taken together, European consumption
deforestation and forest degradation 500 passenger cars for every 1 000 patterns are associated with substantial
(Olesen et al., 2016) and indirectly through inhabitants, which is almost four times environmental footprints. Carbon,
conversion of non-agricultural land the world average (Eurostat, 2018m). water, land and material footprints per
such as forests, wetlands and peatlands capita are between 1.5 and 2.4 times
(EC, 2019d). This mechanism, known As in other regions, Europe’s demand higher in the EU than at the global level
as indirect land use change, could also for goods and services is growing in (Tukker et al., 2016; Wood et al., 2018).
negate some or all of the GHG emission proportion to rising levels of affluence
savings of individual biofuels (EC, 2012). (Sala et al., 2019). These trends For the period 1995-2011, Europe’s
are driving existing environmental environmental footprint showed mixed
European citizens today enjoy high pressures and creating new ones. trends. Pressures such as acidification
material standards of living compared The goods and services purchased and eutrophication decreased
with other world regions. Household in Europe are characterised by significantly, while others such as land,
adjusted disposable income is among very different resource inputs and energy use and GHGs were either
the highest in the world (Eurostat, 2018l). emissions. Increasingly globalised stable or grew. The water use footprint
Although significant differences still occur and complex supply chains mean that grew steadily over the period, while
across countries and regions, the EU-28 consumers have limited awareness material use increased overall, despite
also recorded the highest expenditure on of the full social, economic and a significant reduction around the
social protection, and the lowest poverty environmental implications of their time of the 2008 economic crisis. Early
and inequality rates across G20 regions purchasing decisions (EEA, 2015). estimates for 2012-2015 indicate that
(Eurostat, 2018l). According to recent estimates, food overall environmental footprints have
products, in particular meat and further stabilised or slightly decreased
Despite the 2007-2009 economic crisis, dairy products, are among the largest (NTNU, 2018).
EU household consumption expenditure contributors to environmental impacts
increased by 38 % between 1996 and associated with consumption, in terms The decoupling of economic growth
2016 (Eurostat, 2018f). In 2017, almost of acidification, eutrophication, climate from resource use and environmental
half of EU-28 household consumption change, and land and water use (Beylot impacts remains a priority objective
expenditure related to food, transport et al., 2019a). Manufactured products for EU policy. Overall, the economy
and housing (including water, electricity, and raw materials contribute most to of EEA member countries has grown

PART 3
faster than all environmental footprints 16.1.3 activities, as well as governments and
since the 1990s (Stadler et al., 2018). Food, energy and mobility systems civil society, which set the wider policy
Acidification and eutrophication have and societal contexts (EEA, 2017b).
decoupled in absolute terms, meaning The need to transform Europe’s The main purpose and function of the
that, although GDP has increased, consumption and production is well food system is to provide food and
emissions of pollutants contributing to recognised and is increasingly crystallising nutrition security but, depending on its
acidification and eutrophication have into a focus on particular systems. characteristics, it can either enhance or
decreased. GHG emissions, energy, As indicated in Chapter 15, the analysis degrade ecosystem health.
water and material consumption in the coming sections focuses on three
decoupled from gross domestic product systems in particular — those meeting The food system is characterised
(GDP) only in relative terms during the European demand for food, energy and by considerable diversity in Europe,
same time frame, meaning that they mobility. This selection partly reflects because of variations in climate
grew more slowly than GDP. the key functions that these systems and morphology and diversity of
perform and their related prominence in soils, landscapes and seascapes,
These reductions in emission EU policy. In part, it reflects the findings socio‑economic conditions, technical skills
intensity were primarily the result of scientific studies, which identify and levels of investment. For example,
of regulation‑driven technological consumption categories such as food, the structure of farms varies substantially
improvements in Europe during mobility and housing as key drivers of across countries in terms of physical
the period 1995-2007 (EEA, 2013a, environmental pressures (Tukker et al., and economic size. The proportion of
2014a). Subsequently, the economic 2006, 2010; Ivanova et al., 2016; EEA, the national population dwelling in rural
crisis and consequent structural 2013a, 2014a). Environmental pressures areas in the EU-28 ranges from less than
changes have been the main driver associated with energy use are assigned 1 % to up to 20 % (EC, 2018j). Producing
of reduced consumption and related to the different end use categories, with and processing fish as food in the EU
environmental footprints (EEA, mobility and housing accounting for is still largely dependent on small and
2015). More recently, factors such a large proportion. medium-sized businesses, and this
as macroeconomic changes, shifts sector plays an important role in many
in consumption and trade patterns, coastal communities (EEA, 2017b). While
and eco-efficiency in the production 16.2 the agriculture and fisheries sectors
of goods and services have combined The food system have declined in relative importance
to stabilise some environmental economically over the last 50 years, the
footprints. 16.2.1 wider food and drink industry is one of
The food system at a glance the largest manufacturing sectors in the
Structural change in the European EU in terms of employment, turnover and
economy, such as the shift towards Food systems have evolved greatly in value added.
services and the reduction in some recent centuries from predominantly
industrial activities, has been shown local systems of exchange into complex In addition to meeting various societal
to increase reliance on imports global networks of production, needs, the food system is responsible
of industrial goods, especially consumption and trade (EEA, 2017b; for a vast array of impacts on the
energy‑intensive ones, and consequent UNEP, 2016). They are shaped by many environment through emissions of
outsourcing of harmful emissions factors: economic, environmental, pollutants, depletion of resources,
(Velasco-Fernández et al., 2018; political, technological and social, loss of biodiversity and degradation of
Baumert et al., 2019; Jiborn et al., 2018). including cultural norms and lifestyles. ecosystems in Europe and beyond (IPES
In recent years, material efficiency A food system can be defined as all the Food, 2019). Agricultural production,
trends observed for Organisation elements (environment, people, inputs, processing and logistics are the phases
for Economic Co-operation and processes, infrastructures, institutions, contributing most to environmental
Development (OECD) countries have etc.) and activities that relate to the impacts arising from the food system
been mainly driven by technological production, processing, distribution, (Crenna et al., 2019). Moreover, a
improvements occurring in non- preparation and consumption of significant share of food is wasted in
OECD countries (Ekins et al., 2017; food and to the outputs of those Europe because of inefficiencies across
Wood et al., 2018). Within Europe, activities, including socio-economic the value chain. This leads to significant
the decline of the construction sector and environmental outcomes (HLPE, burdens on the environment (Corrado
after the financial crisis also had an 2014b). Food system actors include and Sala, 2018; Scherhaufer et al., 2018),
influence (Chapter 9). those directly involved in food chain as well as ethical concerns.

PART 3
The European food system Moreover, increased consumption of
88 million
is characterised by wide use of food and drink products ‘on the go’
technologies, high external inputs is expected to contribute further to
(e.g. fossil fuels, fertilisers and littering and leakage of plastic waste
pesticides), low labour inputs, and long — a growing environmental concern
and often complex supply chains tonnes of food is lost along (EC, 2018c).
(EEA, 2017b). It is also diverse, with the supply chain or wasted
many small-scale family-based Overall, food production and
at the household level.
producers operating alongside consumption in Europe has
large, globalised food companies environmental, social and economic
and suppliers. The global dimension impacts beyond European borders,
increasingly influences the food including concerns regarding access to
system in Europe, as international food worldwide. European production
markets, technological developments has particular impacts through imports
and transport systems have made it of feed used in both livestock and
possible to connect food production consumption patterns and levels, aquaculture production. In 2013,
and consumption globally (EEA, 2017b). including diets. Food consumption Europe imported (net) some 27 million
This offers larger market opportunities patterns also vary substantially across tonnes of soybeans and soybean
for EU production and consumption European countries. For example, meat products, largely from South America,
but exposes EU primary production consumption ranges between 100 and the vast majority of which were
to the high price volatility of global 160 g/day, fish and seafood between genetically modified and not permitted
agricultural commodities and strong 10 and 60 g/day and milk and dairy to be cultivated in Europe (EEA, 2017b).
competition. Global financial markets product consumption between 170 and This type of trade has been responsible
are increasingly influencing land 520 g/day (EFSA, 2008). The share of for losses of habitat and biodiversity as
transactions, agricultural production household expenditure attributed to well as land use conflicts (EEA, 2014a).
decisions, rural credit provision, risk food and non-alcoholic beverages in
insurance, commodity pricing, and food the EU-28 varies between 8 % and 28 %
distribution and retail (HLPE, 2014a). (Eurostat, 2018i). 16.2.2
Trends and prospects
Europe is a net exporter of meat, dairy In the EU today, five of the seven
products, cereals and wine. It is a net biggest risk factors for premature Overall, progress towards sustainable
importer of tropical fruits, coffee, tea, death — high blood pressure, outcomes (Figure 16.1) is still limited
cocoa, soybean products, palm oil, and cholesterol and body mass index, in the food system. Unhealthy diets
seafood and fish products. Imports of inadequate fruit and vegetable intake, contribute to increasing levels of
fish and aquaculture products meet and alcohol abuse — relate to how we obesity, and more than half of the
55 % of European demand (EUMOFA, eat and drink (EC, 2014; EEA, 2017b; EU’s population in 2014 was estimated
2015). In 2015, Europe had a negative IPES Food, 2019). Up to 7 % of EU to be overweight (Chapter 1). On
trade balance in physical terms health budgets is spent each year average across the EU-28, 16 % of
(kilograms) (Eurostat, 2016a); the directly on diseases linked to obesity, adults were obese in 2014 (OECD and
difference between trends in volume with additional indirect costs resulting EU, 2018). Agriculture still has high
and in value reflects the relatively from productivity losses (EC, 2014). impacts on the European environment,
low monetary value of some imports, The average European per capita while several fish stocks remain
e.g. soybeans and palm oil, compared consumption of animal protein is now depleted in some European seas as
with the higher value of exports such 50 % higher than in the early 1960s and well as worldwide (Chapter 13). Food
as processed foods, chocolate and double the global average (PBL, 2011). consumption in Europe is generating
wine. Nevertheless, the majority of food The amount of food consumed outside increasing environmental pressures
consumed in the EU is still produced the home has increased, while the abroad (Chapter 1). Food waste is also
within the EU and most EU trade in food amount of time devoted to cooking excessive. Annually in the EU around 88
and drink products takes place between and eating food at home has fallen million tonnes of food is lost along the
EU countries (EEA, 2017b). (Trichopoulou, 2009). There has also supply chain, or simply wasted at the
been a shift towards the consumption household level, with corresponding
How the food system is structured of energy-dense but low-nutrient estimates as high as EUR 143 billion
and organised has implications for processed foods (IPES Food, 2016). (FUSIONS, 2016).

PART 3
FIGURE 16.1 Food system desired outcomes
FOOD AND
NUTRITION SECURITY
Stability in:
Food
utilisation
Nutritional value
Social value
Food safety
Food Food
availability access
Production Affordability
Distribution Allocation
Exchange Preference
ECOSYSTEM SOCIAL
HEALTH WELL-BEING
Income
Employment
Wealth
Resilience Equity
Biodiversity Health
Ecosystem functions Culture
Ecosystem services Ethics
As illustrated in thematic and sectoral and worldwide. Key policy frameworks as well as by climate change impacts,
analyses in Part 2 of this report, such as the EU common agricultural as it relies on relatively stable climatic
current prospects indicate that, without policy and the common fisheries policy and ecological patterns to perform its
fundamental changes in the food have limitations in their effectiveness functions (Chapter 7).
system, the outcomes will not be in regarding environmental outcomes,
line with achieving sustainability goals. such as protecting natural capital There have been warnings of a potential
The food system depends on healthy (Chapter 13). The food system in Europe global collapse of entomofauna
ecosystems and their services in Europe is increasingly threatened by such losses (Hallmann et al., 2017; Sánchez-Bayo and

PART 3
Wyckhuys, 2019). Moreover, in conjunction with lower consumption

an expanding bio-based economy in levels in the EU. The implications of such
Europe is expected to increase demand developments on jobs in the agri-food
for feedstock and shift agricultural sector are not clear.
production from food to non-food crops
as industrial sectors seek substitutes An expanding bio-based The barriers to a more sustainable
for chemicals based on fossil resources. economy in Europe is likely configuration of the European food
Similarly, the demand for bioenergy, system are numerous. They are largely
to increase competition
including new energy crops, is expected due to the interdependence between the
to increase as a result of decarbonisation for land use. food system and many other economic
efforts (EC, 2018g). This could lead, in sectors (e.g. processing, retail), the
turn, to further competition for land concentration of power in large, globally
use, increased use of biomass and risks networked and vertically integrated
of higher exploitation of natural capital companies, and the consequent shift
in Europe, including the use of forests (EC, 2018h; IPES Food, 2019) could in influence from primary producers
and other semi-natural areas in Europe, possibly reduce direct demand for to actors downstream in supply chains
further challenging conservation and fertilisers, pesticides, water, etc., per unit (EEA, 2017b; UNEP, 2016). Sunk costs
protection efforts envisaged by the EU of land or product, but it is also likely to associated with large-scale processing
biodiversity strategy. increase the need for machinery and plants, as well as with investments in
appliances and energy infrastructure, research and development (R&D) and
In response to global developments, potentially generating new environmental advertising — a prominent feature of
such as a growing global middle class burdens. At the same time, the current the European food and drink industry
and increased demand for land, food innovation paradigm in EU policies locks (Galizzi and Venturini, 2012) — may
and bioenergy (Chapter 1), the European the food system into a vicious cycle of create further barriers to change.
food system could develop in different ‘techno-fixes’ and short-termism that
ways — each involving synergies and reinforces ‘trends towards intensive,
trade-offs. If long-term trends continue large-scale monoculture-based 16.2.3
regarding economic growth, technology, production’, despite their demonstrable Towards system change
employment and trade in the harm and trade-offs across environmental
agri-food sector, and without additional and socio-economic issues, (IPES Food, There is a wide range of potential actions
policy interventions, it is likely that 2019). For example, the 2017 renewal to transform the food system to deliver
the food system would be shaped by of the license for glyphosate, was more sustainable outcomes, including
increased competitiveness and export characterised by controversies concerning changes in production practices, dietary
orientation, rather than meeting health, negative effects on soils and water and led changes, improvements in technologies
environmental and economic goals to public reactions against the decision, and management, and reductions in
together. Increased competitiveness as precautionary principle and protection food loss and waste (for the livestock
in the agri-food sector would be likely of human health were perceived to be sector, see Buckwell and Nadeu, 2018;
to increase the trend towards fewer, side-lined against economic interests Springmann et al., 2018).
larger and more capital-intensive farms (see IPES Food, 2019).
(Chapter 13; IPES Food, 2019), lead to Changes in production practices
more nutrient pollution due to surpluses Alternatively, a combination of may create opportunities to reduce
of livestock biowaste and increased use low-input agriculture in Europe and environmental pressures. However,
of fertilisers. increased import dependency could emphasis on increasing yields,
ensure the supply of raw materials productivity and efficiency has led
A move towards increasing export to the food industry and subsequent to negative consequences for the
orientation could further consolidate the export of processed food. In this case, environment (IAASTD, 2009). Instead,
current ‘high volume and low margin’ environmental pressures could be shifting towards practices such as
model, based on high-tech and intensive reduced in Europe, but they are likely precision farming, agroecology, or
agriculture. The increased reliance on to be externalised to other countries low-input and organic agriculture is often
digital technologies and appliances through trade. Another pathway would indicated as a potential way of reducing
(e.g. drones, sensors, satellite images) also see food production systems turn pressures on the environment and
envisaged by the common agricultural towards low-input models, with short human health through reduced inputs
policy and EU research programmes supply chains and reduced imports, and improved management practices.

PART 3
Efficiency gains could, however, lead (EC, 2019a), the revised waste legislative
to lower costs and, in turn, to increased framework and the proposed fertiliser
demand for food products, thereby products regulation (EC, 2016d), are
offsetting environmental benefits. expected to improve the performance
Innovative technologies and processes of the food system in the years to come
often raise concerns regarding their Changing habits and by reducing waste and increasing reuse
ethical and social implications and may behaviour are fundamental and recycling (EC, 2019c).
create new, unexpected and unintended
levers for transforming the
environmental challenges (EEA, 2013c). However, the broad range of policies
Therefore, changes in production food system. relevant for food has to respond to many
practices would be more effective if competing forces and vested interests,
combined with reduced consumption often leading to conflicting goals. For
levels and changes in patterns example, commitments to align policies
of demand. with climate and development goals run
on a diversity of plant-based foods, in parallel with initiatives encouraging
In contrast, it has been demonstrated low amounts of animal source foods, meat and dairy producers to seek new
that following the principles unsaturated rather than saturated export markets (IPES Food, 2018, 2019).
of agroecology and fully recognising fats, and small amounts of refined The main targets of key policy measures
agricultural multifunctionality, e.g. by grains, highly processed foods, and are generally farmers, fishers and
maintaining and enhancing biodiversity added sugars’ (Willett et al., 2019). It consumers. While these food system
within agricultural systems, may reduce has been demonstrated that reducing actors are the largest in numbers (EEA,
the trade-offs between food production animal‑based food, especially beef, can 2017b), they do not necessarily have
and ecosystem health, as well as significantly decrease environmental the most power or influence to bring
creating a more resilient food system pressures (Conijn et al., 2018; Sala et al., about change. Other food system actors
(FAO, 2014; Liere et al., 2017). Production 2019). However, savings associated such as suppliers, retailers and service
processes that require lower inputs with reduced consumption of meat providers actively shape the ‘food
may be associated with reduced yields, and dairy products may lead to a shift environment’ — the physical, social and
however, thus requiring more land to be in expenditure to other goods and economic surroundings that influence
converted to production to fulfil overall services (e.g. transport) or increased what people eat. For example, the 10
demand, unless other measures are resilience on imports with higher biggest retail companies in the EU have
also implemented, such as reduced food production impacts, thus offsetting a combined market share of over 50 %
wastage and use of animal products the environmental benefits associated (Heinrich Böll Stiftung et al., 2017),
(Muller et al., 2017). with dietary change. Apart from health exerting a large influence over both
considerations, a wider set of ethical producers and consumers. Influencing
Changing habits and behaviour are also concerns expressed by citizens and the food environment could be an
fundamental levers for transforming consumers on aspects such as animal important lever for change with regard
the food system. Diets ‘inextricably health and welfare or support for the to dietary composition, reducing food
link human health and environmental local economy, could also contribute to waste and supporting more sustainable
sustainability’ (Willett et al., 2019) and shaping the food system. production (EEA, 2017b).
can act as levers for change. Sustainable
diets have lower environmental impacts There is no overarching policy European policies and initiatives could
and contribute to food and nutrition addressing the food system in Europe; make better use of leverage points in
security as well as to healthy lives rather, there are multiple policies the food system to bring about
for present and future generations. across many different domains. Current fundamental changes in the system as
Achieving a sustainable food system for European policies establish a common a whole (Meadows, 1999, 2008). For
everyone, according to the EAT-Lancet framework for governance and action, example, targeting more actions to
Commission on Food, Planet, Health, define incentives and direct research the food industry, including suppliers,
would require major improvements and innovation (EC, 2016a; EEA, 2017b; retailers and the distribution sector,
in food production practices, reduced IPES Food, 2019). Several actions could help accelerate progress
food waste and substantial shifts included in the circular economy action towards sustainable pathways
towards healthy dietary patterns (Willett plan (EC, 2015), including commitments (EEA, 2017b). Moreover, incentives,
et al., 2019). The latter would entail to reduce food wastage (Chapter 9), the such as direct payments to farmers,
an ‘appropriate caloric intake, based expected ban on ‘single-use’ plastics could be redesigned to better reflect

PART 3
the principles of agroecology and as globally. In Europe, rising awareness

reward provision of public goods The use of fossil fuels of the energy system’s impacts on
(IPES Food, 2019). the planet have led to sustainability
for energy purposes
becoming the third key pillar of EU
The development of a common policy
is the principal cause of energy policies during the 1990s. In
framework for the food system could environmental impacts 2013, the Seventh Environment Action
turn into a fundamental enabler of from the energy system. Programme set the direction for the
system change and promote transitions European energy system of the future,
to sustainability by realigning sectoral with climate change being a particularly
policies across production, processing, relevant driver of system change.
distribution and consumption
(IPES Food, 2019). Developing a infrastructure, carbon intensity and The production and consumption
systemic policy framework for food consumption levels. The choice of of energy creates a wide range of
— connecting across the Sustainable fuel type varies significantly across pressures on the environment and
Development Goals and EU policies Europe; some countries meet their on public health. As half of EU energy
— can also mobilise and guide energy needs by relying on a broad consumption is satisfied through
contributions from many policy areas range of primary sources, including imports (Eurostat, 2018d), pressures
and provide a basis for a broad range renewables and nuclear energy, while arise at both the local level and globally.
of stakeholders to explore pathways for others rely almost exclusively on fossil The use of fossil fuels for energy
the system’s transition. fuels (EEA, 2017d). This influences the purposes remains the principal cause
carbon intensity of electricity production, of environmental impacts across the
with countries registering values from energy system, causing adverse human
16.3 as high as 800 g CO2/kWh to as low health effects and harming crops,
The energy system as 15 g CO2/kWh (EEA, 2018e). The forests, water ecosystems, buildings and
structure of the electricity market shows infrastructures (Chapter 7, 8 and 12).
16.3.1 significant variations too. A handful of Nuclear energy also entails risks to
The energy system at a glance EU Member States are still characterised health and ecosystems, especially
by a complete monopoly, and in five EU nuclear waste management and
The energy system is shaped by countries the largest generator accounts potential accidents. Renewable energy
a multitude of forces related to for at least 70 % of the market. In the technologies are also contributing
the production, conversion, delivery, majority of cases, however, the share of to environmental pressures on land,
and use of energy, including economic the largest incumbent ranges between ecosystems and human health,
and political forces as well as broader 14 % and 50 % (Eurostat, 2018b). Regional and depletion of resources across
societal ones, such as cultural norms diversity can also be seen in the age of their full life cycle, especially if
and lifestyles (Allwood et al., 2014). energy infrastructure (installed capacity) local and regional environmental
The energy system spans all resources, (EEA, 2016d). conditions are insufficiently addressed
infrastructures, activities and actors during the project design and
directly and indirectly involved in Energy use in the household sector implementation phases.
meeting European demand for energy, differs for of a number of reasons:
as well as in the final consumption climatic, structural (e.g. state and age Overall, the EU and its Member States
of energy. It includes the energy of the building stocks), socio-economic are all net importers of energy carriers.
sector (i.e. the sector of the economy and behavioural (e.g. household In absolute terms, the EU is the largest
responsible for extraction, production appliances, heating/cooling and cooking energy importer in the world, with
and distribution of energy carriers), as habits, uptake of energy-efficient imports meeting 54 % of its energy
well as major resource users such as technologies). In 2016, per capita needs in 2016. More specifically, 87 %
buildings and construction, industry energy consumption in the household of all oil products, 70 % of all natural
and households. sector of the EU-28 ranged from gas and 40 % of all coal consumed in
0.2 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) the EU were imported (Eurostat, 2018d).
The energy system is characterised per capita in Malta to 1 toe/capita in The import of solid biomass, biofuels
by significant diversity across Europe Finland (EEA, 2018c). and bioliquids to meet the needs for
and its regions, particularly concerning Europe’s demand for energy carriers,
aspects such as the energy mix, market Access to clean, secure and affordable is associated with significant impacts
liberalisation, the age of the energy energy is a vital service in Europe as well on biodiversity (Section 16.2 and

PART 3
Chapter 1). The EU’s dependence on policy endeavour for several decades.
imports has increased since 1990 The EU is the largest energy A few technologies, in particular wind
as domestic fossil fuel production turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV)
importer in the world,
continues to decline due to depletion panels have seen substantial reductions
of resources and economic factors.
with imports meeting in cost and are expected to become
Despite this, the increase in energy 54 % of its energy needs cost-competitive within a few years in
dependence stabilised around 2005, in 2016. the current EU energy market system.
against the backdrop of increased Renewable energy sources are used
production from sources of renewable most widely in the heating and cooling
energy. Although imported energy is energy market sector, in which the use
essential for the EU’s economy of biomass (in district heating plants and
to function, significant amounts of in small-scale residential boilers and
money leave the EU economy in energy footprint of final consumption stoves) dominates all other renewables.
exchange for energy resources. in Europe is analysed, a metric that In 2016, renewables accounted for the
combines both direct and indirect overwhelming majority (86 %) of new
The call to phase out inefficient use of energy to satisfy final demand EU electricity-generating capacity for the
fuel subsidies and environmentally (e.g. energy embedded in products ninth consecutive year (EEA, 2017c).
harmful subsidies is put forward by consumed in Europe), although the data
organisations, such as the World Bank, are for a shorter time series and of lower
the International Monetary Fund and quality. The transport sector demanded 16.3.2
the OECD, and by the leaders of the G7 most energy, equalling one third of Trends and prospects
and G20 economies as well as by the the total, followed by households and
European Commission (EC, 2011a; EU, industry, accounting for one quarter Trends concerning the energy system
2013). Their elimination ‘could raise each (Eurostat, 2018e). Non-energy uses indicate that progress has been made
government revenue by USD 2.9 trillion of energy resources (fuels used as raw towards reducing energy demand and
(3.6 percent of global GDP), cut global materials in various sectors) represented increasing renewable energy shares.
CO2 emissions by more than 20 percent, only 9 % of the final energy use in 2016 The EU energy system is changing
and cut pre-mature air pollution deaths in the EU (Eurostat, 2018e; Figure 16.2). rapidly, but it is still highly dependent
by more than half’ (Coady et al., 2015). on imports of fossil fuels, heightening
Combustion-based installations the risks to supply and adverse impacts
Overall, energy consumption (1) fell on generating power and producing heat are on climate, biodiversity and health. The
average after the economic crisis and still dominant, but shares electricity sector is currently driving the
has been on the rise since 2014. In 2016, of renewables are growing, driven by change, and other sectors such as heat
gross inland energy consumption in economies of scale, incentives and and cooling, and transport show limited
the EU-28 (1 640 million tonnes of oil technological progress. Much of the EU’s improvements. Europeans also consume
equivalent, Mtoe) was 2 % less than in coal-based power capacity is more than less energy than they did 10 years ago.
1990, and about 10 % less than it was 40 years old and is being operated at or Efficiency gains, structural shifts in the
during the peaks in consumption of near the end of its planned lifetime. In economy towards less energy-intensive
2005 and 2006. Oil, natural gas, and contrast, gas-fired power plants across sectors such as services (EEA, 2018b),
coal together supplied 71 % of the EU’s Europe are younger (EEA, 2016d). Nuclear policy interventions (e.g. targets on
gross energy needs. Equal shares of energy still plays an important role in half energy efficiency — see Chapter 7), and
nuclear energy and renewables met of the EU Member States, but its overall the recession of 2008 have all contributed
the remaining consumption. The final share in electricity generation across to reducing the demand for energy. In
energy consumed by end-users was Europe is declining. The development contrast, the demand for energy from
only 2 % higher in 2016 than in 1990. of low-carbon and low-pollution energy road and air transport has continued to
A similar pattern is observed when the technologies has been a major R&D and increase since 2009 (EEA, 2018b).
(1) It is important to distinguish between ‘final energy consumption’ and ‘gross inland energy consumption’, as they have different meanings and
implications for policy. Final energy consumption covers all energy supplied to the final consumer’s door for all energy uses. In contrast, gross
inland energy consumption is the total energy demand of a country or region and represents the quantity of energy necessary to satisfy the
inland consumption of the country or region under consideration.

PART 3
FIGURE 16.2 Final energy consumption by sector
ktoe
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Industry Road transport Other transport Households Services Other
Source: Eurostat (2018e).
stocks of household appliances and (Murphy, 2014). In the short term, this
Demographic and lifestyle consumer goods (EEA, 2012), and trend may encourage the extraction
personal electronic devices associated of unconventional fuels in Europe
changes may increase with the digitalisation of all aspects of (e.g. Neville et al., 2017). To counter the
demand for energy, land and life. All these trends potentially increase effects of energy price volatility and
infrastructure. the demand for electricity. Projected meet EU and global climate ambitions,
impacts of climate change could have the EU and its Member States aim to
negative effects on the security of accelerate the transition to an efficient,
energy supply (EEA, 2019). renewables-based energy system.
EU governing bodies are expected to
The energy system in Europe is likely introduce stronger policies on energy
to be increasingly exposed to the efficiency, including policies for energy
The future of the European energy effects of price volatility, associated demand management and to incentivise
system will also depend on global and with the risk of disruption in supply the substitution of carbon-intensive
regional drivers of change. Trends in due to potential conflicts and instability fossil fuels technology with renewable
demography and lifestyle changes in exporting countries, trade and energy technologies.
in Europe are likely to entail shifts protectionism (EPSC, 2018), increased
towards smaller households requiring global demand and competition The rise of ‘prosumers’ — private
a higher floor area per individual, as (OECD/DASTI, 2016), and a lower citizens who both consume and produce
well as increased demand for land return on energy investments in newly electricity, often by installing household
and infrastructure (EEA, 2014a), larger discovered oil fields and oil tar sands solar PV panels — is recognised as a

PART 3
rapidly growing phenomenon (Sajn, However, the recently negotiated merely shifted emissions across
2016). This trend could significantly recasts of the Electricity Directive and geographical boundaries, resulting in
change the electricity system towards Electricity Regulation are expected to increasing externalisation of emissions
increased decentralisation as cities enable consumers to participate actively associated with Europe’s demand
and neighbourhoods become more in the move towards a less centralised for goods and services (Chapter 1)
important in making collective decisions energy system (EC, 2019b), to facilitate without reducing GHG emissions at
about energy production, supply and ‘cross‑border trade’, to allow for more the planetary scale.
consumption, which has implications flexibility to accommodate an increasing
for the governance structure of share of renewable energy in the grid and
energy networks. There are still many to ‘drive the investments necessary to 16.3.3
technological barriers and unknowns provide security of supply’ (EC, 2019b). Towards system change
associated with such shifts. Some
renewable energy technologies, such as The future of the European economy and The pace of the EU’s progress towards
solar PV and wind, are characterised by its structure will also play a fundamental climate and energy targets is not fast
intermittent production patterns, which, role in the energy system. Along with enough to meet its commitments
if considered on a small scale and alone, economic development and prosperity to the Paris Agreement (Chapter 7).
will not meet the continuous demand for in Europe, a shift has taken place, Increased efforts are needed to meet
electricity from industry and households away from energy and labour intensive the EU’s climate and energy targets for
given the current infrastructure. For this domestic activities and towards high end 2030, and the scale of change required
reason, renewable electricity supply is production, complex and globalised to reach its 2050 objectives is even
currently backed up by non-renewable supply chains (e.g. the car industry) and greater (EEA, 2018i, 2018h) — all the
energy technologies such as coal and delocalisation of heavy industry (e.g. steel more so to reach the goal of climate
nuclear power plants or natural gas production in China) alongside other neutrality set out by the European
(Smil, 2016). The future development manufacturing sectors (e.g. clothing and Commission in its long-term strategy
of energy storage technologies will be textiles, ICT). (EC, 2018f). Continuing with the current
central to the transformation of the structure of and trends in the energy
energy system (Verzijlbergh et al., 2017). The continuing of this trend in Europe system would not allow the EU to reach
may facilitate the uptake of electricity, either 80-95 % decarbonisation or
Integrating electricity grids would help the hydrogen or e-fuels in industry and climate neutrality by 2050.
EU to achieve a well-functioning, secure manufacturing and may progressively
and climate-compatible electricity market phase out energy and labour intensive Several options have been proposed
with a high share of variable renewable industrial processes for which substitute in the literature, enabling countries to
electricity production. Seventeen Member low-carbon technologies are not readily develop specific strategies that take
States are on track to reach their 10 % available to scale, in this way keeping into account national circumstances
grid connectivity target by 2020 (2) both opportunities and challenges within (IPCC and Edenhofer, 2012; IPCC
(EC, 2017b). In the light of the further certain social and economic domains. et al., 2014; IPCC, 2018; EC, 2018g).
rapid growth expected in renewable Yet, there are several technological These include mitigation options
electricity, continued progress in grid and and economic barriers associated such as combinations of low-carbon
market integration is needed (EEA, 2016d; with deploying such technologies to technologies (e.g. wind power, solar
EC, 2016c; Grossi et al., 2018). Enabling scale, not least their dependence on PV systems, bioenergy for heat and
intermittent energy sources such as large quantities of renewable energy. power, and biofuels), infrastructure
renewables to meet the continuous Moreover, environmental impacts development (e.g. electricity
demand for energy will require additional associated with their life cycles need transmission lines, cross‑border
storage capacity (i.e. batteries). These to be better understood across both interconnections and storage),
investments are not negligible in terms production and consumption phases. increased efficiency and savings
of demand for energy and materials and (e.g. from energy-intensive industries
GHG emissions when considered over From a climate perspective, it would be and final consumption), carbon capture
their life cycles (see Di Felice et al., 2018). a missed opportunity if globalisation and storage, land restoration, changes
(2) In 2014, the European Council called on Member States to aim to achieve interconnection of a minimum 10 % of their installed electricity
generation capacity by 2020.

PART 3
in consumption and lifestyles, and competition for land, it would generate

governance approaches. direct and indirect land use change
in other parts of the world, which has
The European Commission’s proposed potential implications for global loss of
‘long-term vision for a prosperous, biodiversity.
modern, competitive and climate The transition towards
neutral economy’ (EC, 2018f) indicates a low-carbon energy sector Removing CO2 from the atmosphere
that an economy with net-zero GHG by enhancing natural carbon sinks
can itself create new risks
emissions could be achieved by or engineering technologies is also
combining strategic building blocks and dependencies advocated as an option for the
such as maximising energy efficiency, that need to be anticipated. long-term reduction of GHG emissions
including zero-emission buildings; (EC, 2018f). The land use, land use
deploying renewables and electricity change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in
to fully decarbonise Europe’s energy Europe is today a net sink, as forest land
supply; embracing clean, safe and alone compensates for net emissions
connected mobility systems; developing 2015; ECA, 2016). In short, bioenergy — arising from all other land covers;
competitive industry and the circular depending on source and type — can however, its future contribution to
economy; developing a smart network result in a range of trade-offs with other reducing GHG emissions is expected
infrastructure and interconnections; environmental issues, such as land use, to decrease, mainly because of forest
developing the bioeconomy and creating biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, ageing and increased use of forest
and enhancing essential carbon sinks; water, and nutrient and carbon cycles, biomass (EC, 2018f). As recently
and tackling remaining CO2 emissions and can even result in additional GHG indicated by IPBES (2018), land
with carbon capture and storage. It also emissions (EEA, 2013b). To minimise restoration and avoided degradation
suggests an enabling framework for the some of these environmental impacts, of forests, wetlands, grasslands and
long-term transition (Chapter 17). the Renewable Energy Directive croplands could contribute significantly
(EU, 2009) sets sustainability and GHG to the climate mitigation efforts needed
The transition towards a low-carbon emission-saving criteria for biofuels and at the global scale and in a cost-effective
energy sector can itself create new bioliquids, which have subsequently been manner (Seddon et al., 2019).
risks and dependencies that need to complemented by the 2015 Indirect Land
be anticipated. These include new Use Change Directive (EU, 2015). For the Contrary to high-disturbance
raw material dependencies for high- period 2021-2030, the recast Renewable management systems (e.g. monocultures,
tech renewable energy technologies Energy Directive (EU, 2018) strengthens fast-rotation forests), nature-based
and cybersecurity risks as a result of the existing criteria and expands the solutions are expected to contribute
increasing ICT applications (Chapter 9). application of sustainability criteria to all to multiple goals (Sections 13.4.3
Moreover, fundamental changes in how uses of biomass for energy, i.e. also for and 17.3.1). In addition to carbon
energy is produced are likely to reshape heating and power. sequestration and consequent climate
the prevailing set of societal and regulation, protecting natural capital
geopolitical interactions and impacts All the scenarios considered by the would also lead to other important co-
(WEF, 2018b), potential disruption of long‑term vision rely on a substantial use benefits for society, such as improved
the labour market (WEF, 2018a), as of biomass for energy and point towards health and well-being (ten Brink et al.,
well as through new opportunities trade-offs with land use and protection 2016). In contrast, carbon capture and
for employment in growing clean of natural capital in Europe and beyond. storage (CCS) technologies have so far
technology sectors. Overall, substituting fossil fuels with failed to develop at the expected rate,
renewable energy requires an increase even with supportive EU regulation and
Such changes will also lead to trade‑offs in land use for PV panels, wind farms co-funding opportunities (EC, 2018a).
with conservation of natural capital and biofuel production, the extent of No large-scale commercial CCS plant
and likely effects on food and water which depends on the envisaged energy is currently operating in Europe. This
security. Tackling climate change by mix. If the demand for biomass is met technology would need to overcome
upscaling the deployment of bioenergy through production in Europe, it might several economic and social challenges,
without sufficiently strong safeguards entail competition for land and trigger including public acceptance, if it is to
has attracted criticism of its overall energy use by the agricultural sector. be deployed at the continental scale.
sustainability and effects in mitigating Although importing the feedstock from Among other technical challenges,
climate change (European Parliament, outside Europe might ease domestic CCS-equipped power plants are

PART 3
estimated to require approximately system shaped by a multitude of forces

15-25 % more energy, thus needing — including economic and broader
more fuel than conventional plants. societal ones, such as cultural norms
This would lead to increased direct and lifestyles — evolving over long time
emissions of air pollutants from CCS scales. The transport sector addressed
plants, including particulate matter and Policies for achieving net-zero in Chapter 13 is just one of these
nitrogen dioxide (EEA, 2011a). carbon emissions often components, albeit a fundamental one.
focus on technology
Overall, the energy system has the The transport sector is generally
most developed and comprehensive and efficiency gains rather defined as an economic activity (see
EU policy framework, which covers than behaviours and lifestyles. Eurostat, 2018o) and described in
aspects ranging from energy security terms of GVA, employment, number
to the internal market and to climate of enterprises, etc. In contrast, the
and environmental considerations. It mobility system includes aspects that
concerns aspects of both production and go beyond economic activity, such
final consumption. However, options for policy indirectly by mitigating climate as personal mobility and individual
achieving net-zero carbon emissions, and environmental impacts across the behaviour, infrastructures, urban and
such as those envisaged by the energy system, they are just one among regional planning, investments, policy
long-term climate-neutral strategy the many actors influencing citizens’ and regulatory measures, as well as a
(EC, 2018f), largely focus on technology choices and lifestyles. multitude of actors such as producers,
options and expected efficiency gains users, policymakers and civil society.
across all sectors of the economy. There A broader set of actors, such as
is much less focus on other levers such non-governmental organisations, energy For the purpose of this assessment,
as behaviour and lifestyles (e.g. less service companies, grassroots platforms, the boundaries of the system are
carbon-intensive diets and modes think tanks, academia, innovation centres, defined by the geographical focus on
of transport, limited demand for air sponsors and the media, will potentially Europe and its global transport links.
transport, reduced demand for heating enable the conditions for creating policy The specific properties of different
and cooling). Research on climate and converting regulation into practice modes of transport (road, rail, aviation
change tends to focus on mitigation (Backhaus, 2010). Most importantly, they and maritime, walking, cycling), such
and supply-side technological solutions, are well suited to promoting changes in as capacity, speed and infrastructural
while a better understanding of norms, habits and practices in ways that requirements, define the supply side
behaviours and norms that determine can reduce consumption of direct and of transport and have a strong effect
households consumption is often embedded energy. Changes in these on mobility choices. In addition,
overlooked (Creutzig et al., 2018). aspects should be deployed, together mobility-related industries account for
with stronger policy instruments, such as a significant share of the EU’s economy
Achieving change requires engaging taxing unsustainable energy carriers and and employment. For example, the
several actors within the energy their emissions, and removing fossil fuel production of motor vehicles alone
system, as well as taking advantage subsidies. Such measures would promote accounted for 2.4 million jobs in 2015
of multiple leverage points. The EU cross-sectoral and demand-side changes (Eurostat, 2018a).
institutions and Member States define towards a more sustainable configuration
policies, regulate the functioning of of the energy system. The mobility system shows marked
the energy market, ensure security of diversity across Europe, concerning
supply and have the final choice over aspects such as network infrastructure
the national energy mix (EU, 2012). 16.4 and connectivity, modes of transport,
They are also responsible for creating The mobility system share of renewable fuels, car ownership
enabling conditions for new entrants and overall demand (EEA, 2018j;
to the energy market, limiting market 16.4.1 EC, 2018l; Eurostat, 2018n), as well as
dominance and the power of incumbent The mobility systems at a glance socio-economic and geographical
system operators and strengthening the variations. For example, an increase in
rights of individual consumers. Although The mobility system spans all resources, levels of car ownership, resulting in bigger
they promote energy efficiency and structures and activities involved in car fleets, has been observed, particularly
new and renewable forms of energy moving physical objects, including in countries joining the EU since 2004,
production, and also influence energy both people and goods. It is a complex alongside an expansion

PART 3
in the demand for transport in tandem keeps the petrol- and diesel-powered
with a stagnating or declining share of Europe has had limited internal combustion engine the principal
the more environmentally friendly modes source of power for cars.
success in reducing transport
of transport, such as rail transport (EEA,
2018f). This has been indicated as a key
emissions and shifting
reason for increases in the transport towards more sustainable 16.4.2
sector’s GHG emissions (EEA, 2018g). transport modes. Trends and prospects
Mobility is a means of satisfying The mobility system has had limited

fundamental needs, be it for personal success in reducing emissions and
purposes or as part of the economy. shifting towards more sustainable
Most EU citizens make mobility choices transport modes. While other sectors
every day, for example to reach their have already seen a certain reduction
workplace, go shopping and access the The mobility system generates important in emissions, GHG emissions from
social infrastructure such as schools, negative impacts on ecosystems and transport have increased by 26 % since
libraries and hospitals. Lifestyle health. Rising car ownership rates and 1990 (including international aviation
choices and behavioural aspects play the growing road network have led but excluding international shipping).
an important role in determining to dramatic gains in personal mobility, Following a peak in 2007, emissions
the shape and environmental impact but they have also resulted in important decreased for 6 consecutive years.
of the mobility system, as established economic, societal and environmental This largely coincides with a period
patterns are hard to change, even if problems (Geels et al., 2012). of economic contraction, which had a
better, more environmentally friendly The spectrum is broad and ranges from dampening effect on transport demand.
mobility options become available. It well-documented, direct impacts on the However, since 2013 emissions have
has been shown that the shape of the climate and air quality, noise pollution, risen again year on year. This puts the
mobility system partly determines the loss of biodiversity and fragmentation EU’s mobility system in the spotlight.
form of the built environment, and of landscape and habitats to more In future, it will need to run on much
vice versa (Zijlstra and Avelino, 2012). indirect impacts such as urban sprawl less carbon to avoid thwarting the EU’s
Shopping centres outside or on the and invasive alien species entering in the ambitions for mitigating climate change.
fringes of urban areas, suburbanisation ballast water of ships (Chapters 3-13). Within the mobility system, road
and the need for long commutes when Transport also creates indirect impacts transport accounts for the biggest share
working and living areas are separated by stimulating demand in a range of (73 % in 2016), but aviation emissions
can all result in dependence on cars other economic sectors, including have seen the strongest growth
(Guerra and Cervero, 2011). extraction of raw materials, production (Figure 16.3).
of infrastructure and vehicles, electricity
Alongside personal mobility, the system generation, petroleum refining, and The political goal of shifting transport
also plays a central role in production and recycling and disposal of materials. from more polluting modes towards
trade. Europe is a transport hot spot with less polluting modes has not had
a high concentration of infrastructure The EU mobility system is heavily an obvious impact on demand or
by international comparison. It connects dependent on imported oil; thus, it is infrastructure development in the EU.
different world regions through major intrinsically interconnected to the energy Demand for passenger transport in the
airports and sea ports, and plays a central system. Transport accounted for 33 % EU was at a record level of 6.8 trillion
role in global transport of passengers and of the EU’s final energy consumption passenger-kilometres (pkm) in 2016.
goods. Complex logistics chains are the in 2016 (EC, 2018k) and only 7 % of the At 3.7 trillion tonne-kilometres (tkm),
hallmarks of economic globalisation, as final energy used in transport came from demand for freight transport was also
they now connect different production renewable sources (Eurostat, 2018k). The close to its all-time high (EC, 2018k). The
stages within countries, across world remainder was largely made up of oil length of the EU’s motorway network,
regions and even globally. This is especially and petroleum products, of which 87 % for example, has seen uninterrupted
relevant for complex products such as were imported in 2016 (Eurostat, 2018k). growth over the last 25 years (EC,
electronic equipment and the car industry. Liquid fuels from fossil fuel sources 2018k). Simultaneously, car ownership
Raw materials (e.g. iron ore, crude oil and have a high energy density, are relatively rates have kept going up — from
coal) and agricultural products (e.g. wheat, cheap, relatively easy to transport and 342 cars per 1 000 inhabitants in 1990
rice and soybeans) are among the most handle, and are supported by a mature to 507 in 2016 (EC, 2018k). At the same
transport-intensive goods. infrastructure. This creates a lock-in that time, the overall length of the rail

PART 3
FIGURE 16.3 Energy consumption by transport mode
Index = 1990, based on tonnes of oil equivalent
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
International aviation Road Domestic aviation Rail Inland waterways
Source: Eurostat (2018e).
network has been shrinking, although economic power towards developing their populations due to ageing and
more than half of it is now electrified regions and a fast-growing global middle internal EU migration (UNDESA, 2018),
(54 % in 2016). class is also expected to increase trade others are expected to grow further
with emerging economies, potentially (Eurostat, 2016b) and demand more
Current prospects indicate increased requiring additional infrastructure at mobility services, which may also occur
demand for transport and mobility EU ports. In Europe, although some as a result of the large number of
services in Europe and globally. cities are experiencing a decline in infrastructure projects planned for the
According to the European Commission, future (EEA, 2016c).
passenger and freight transport are
expected to have grown by about Another important development is
42 % and 60 %, respectively, by 2050 the rapidly growing role of ICT across
compared with 2010 levels (EC, 2017a). the mobility system. Real-time travel
Given similar trends in most other Demand for transport data, partly automated driving and the
high-income countries and rapid growth push towards autonomous driving can
and mobility services
in demand in low- and middle-income make the system more efficient and
countries, it is likely that more people is projected to grow enable multi-modal, seamless transport
and goods will move around in the world in Europe and globally. services. The ‘mobility as a service’
in future than ever before. The shift in approach seeks to detach mobility from

PART 3
vehicle ownership by bringing together appears to be driven by both markets

all relevant means of transport to and policies, for example the CO2
enable individual trips. It has the emission regulations for cars and vans
potential to reduce car ownership (EU, 2014). However, it mainly takes
rates and improve capacity use across the form of incremental improvements
transport modes. Yet, the overall Achieving EU policy objectives in technology that are insufficient
effect of ICT on the environmental will require urgent to put the mobility system on a
pressures from the mobility system trajectory towards achieving the EU’s
and large-scale change
remains unclear, apart from having sustainability objectives. Incremental
important social implications including in the mobility system. efficiency improvements are often
personal data protection and privacy. offset by growth in demand or negated
The available research findings on by countervailing market trends. For
automated and connected driving example, heavier and less aerodynamic
indicate that the technology can make cars, especially the trend towards
vehicles more efficient and cut their so‑called sport utility vehicles (SUVs),
emissions, but at the societal level it as a result of the difficulty of agreeing are partly offsetting progress in engine
could also lead to additional demand binding rules at the international level. technology (EEA, 2018d). Moreover, the
for transport, longer commutes and Batteries are also not universally suited positive impacts of regulatory measures
rebound effects as a result of improved to all transport modes. For international — even those already implemented —
efficiency and lower costs shipping, and especially for commercial are often apparent only in the medium
(Taiebat et al., 2018). aviation, their low energy density to long term because of the turnover
compared with liquid fuels is still in the vehicle fleet.
Rapid progress in battery, fuel cell, bio- an important disadvantage.
and electrofuel technology is starting The results of research on the life cycle
to affect road transport, although impacts of a typical battery electric
uptake is limited. Regulatory pressure 16.4.3 vehicle in Europe show lower GHG
for more efficient cars and vans has Towards system change emissions compared with conventional
already resulted in a small but rapidly equivalents (EEA, 2018a). This is even
growing share of battery electric vehicles The scale of change in the mobility with the EU’s current electricity mix,
(BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). system required to meet EU objectives which still contains electricity from
However, with a combined share of is large and the timeline is short. coal (EEA, 2018a). Although the results
1.5 %, they represented only a small Changes are required not only to are characterised by uncertainties and
fraction of the new car market in 2017, mitigate climate change but also to overall effects at the system scale,
which is still dominated by petrol and improve air quality, reduce exposure to the benefits are expected to increase
diesel cars (97 %). 2017 was also the traffic noise and address a broad range over time if the carbon intensity
first year that hydrogen cars became of other impacts. Measures concerning of the EU’s electricity mix decreases.
commercially available in Europe with technological options, infrastructure, However, producing an electric vehicle
175 registrations (EEA, 2018a). digital innovation, optimisation and is currently more harmful to the
societal and consumer choices are often environment and human health than
Alternative technologies and fuels are advocated as ways of transforming the producing a conventional one owing
also starting to play a role in sea and air mobility system (see also EC, 2018g). to the extraction and processing of
transport (e.g. ‘advanced’ biofuels and raw materials such as copper and
synthetic fuels (3)), but market‑ready While efficiency gains and new nickel. Potentially strong synergies
technologies are not yet widely technologies offer a range of exist between mitigating CO2 emissions
available and tend to suffer from poor opportunities, their viability and overall in Europe and reducing other local
cost-competitiveness, as well as low environmental and social effects at environmental impacts, such as air
levels of energy efficiency. This is also the system level are often less clear. pollution and exposure to noise. Electric
due to weaker regulatory pressure The drive towards more efficiency vehicles offer benefits for local air
(3) Synthetic fuels (also known as e-fuels) are produced by transforming electricity into synthetic gases (hydrogen, methane or other gases) and
liquids. They can be stored and used in multiple applications, across different economic sectors (EC, 2018g). The technologies underpinning these
processes are also known as ‘power-to-X’ technologies.

PART 3
quality due to zero tailpipe pollution Tackling regulations that drive urban
and less noise. sprawl (e.g. a building permit system BOX 16.1
that requires creating parking space) Tax differentials, petrol versus
diesel — examples of Belgium
The technology-infrastructure-behaviour and changing taxation arrangements
and France
link is of central importance for that make long commutes financially
driving change in the mobility system.
The electrification of road transport
is one example. Although it has gained
feasible could be suitable starting points.
However, positive outcomes ultimately
depend on accessible and attractive
D iesel is taxed at a lower rate than
petrol in EEA Member States with
the exceptions of the United Kingdom,
momentum because of various incentive alternatives to individual motorised where the two energy products have
schemes and increasingly stringent CO2 transport, as well as incentives to been taxed at the same rate since 2000
limits for the new car fleet, so far the substitute physical transport with ICT, (EEA, 2016b), and Switzerland, where
uptake of this technology is still limited. where possible, and to shift demand for the diesel tax rate is higher than that on
The reasons for this are barriers and transport to the most efficient modes. petrol. One of the reasons for the tax
lock-ins that keep the system on its differential was to reduce fuel costs for
current path, including high prices, lack Lifestyle choices and behavioural aspects hauliers, as diesel was mainly used as
of a charging infrastructure, limited play an important role in determining the a fuel by commercial vehicles such as
driving ranges and consumer attitudes shape of the mobility system, its impacts trucks and buses. However, the share
(EEA, 2016e). The fact that the bulk of and its potential for reconfiguration. of diesel-powered passenger vehicles
the traffic and refuelling infrastructure is Decisions with profound environmental has increased over the last two decades
already in place and will remain largely impacts, including car ownership, in Europe. The share of registration of
unchanged for decades because of its choice of vehicle and more generally new diesel-powered passenger cars
long life span, high investment costs and mode of travel are linked to lifestyle. increased from 23.1 % in 1995 to 56.1 %
the overall duration of the infrastructure This insight can, for example, be used in in 2011 in the 15 Member States that
planning cycle impedes systemic change. public service campaigns encouraging joined the EU before 1 May 2014. Since
Moreover, infrastructure development is sustainable transport (Thøgersen, 2018) 2011, the share has dropped to 44.8 %
often subject to conflicting demands, and as a leveraging point to change mobility in 2017 (ACEA, 2018).
environmental concerns do not always behaviour, especially in urban areas.
prevail. This aspect makes the mobility Taxation is an effective instrument Countries such as Belgium and France
system subject to considerable inertia, to stimulate behavioural change, are in the forefront of reducing this tax
and the effects of decisions taken today especially when well designed to take differential. France set its tax on diesel
to reduce its impacts on the environment account of unintended regressive at 71 % of the tax rate levied on petrol
and health will usually take years and effects. Some European countries have in 2010 and that increased to 88 % in
sometimes decades to materialise. announced their intention of reducing 2018 (EC, 2019e). In Belgium, the diesel
the tax differential between petrol tax rate was set at 59 % of the petrol
There is currently too much focus and diesel, as a lower tax on diesel is rate in 2010 but increased by 66 % in
on technology and governance, not justified from an environmental the period up to July 2018. In contrast,
and behavioural aspects tend to be perspective (Harding, 2014; see also the petrol tax rate was reduced by 2.2 %
neglected. The built environment, Box 16.1). However, applying the during the same period, so that the tax
residential areas and the location of principle in practice is often blocked rates on petrol and diesel are now equal.
services are significant conditioning by entrenched interests or by public All changes are calculated based on
factors for how people make everyday concern about equity. nominal prices. ■
mobility choices as well as for what
options might become available At the same time, the public discourse on
(Wegener, 2004). Therefore, the mobility and its environmental effects is
transition of the mobility system changing, as air quality problems linked
is dependent on transitions in the built to emissions from combustion engines,
environment (EEA, 2016e). Spatial and diesel engines in particular, have
planning is a key issue in breaking become a major concern. A number
the infrastructure lock-in. Investing of national governments have recently
more in infrastructure that facilitates announced plans to phase out internal
walking, cycling and public transport combustion engine cars. While
is already driving change towards implementing a phase-out in Europe
more sustainable urban mobility. would probably require a coordinated

PART 3
approach at the level of the single market prominently addressed. A broader Second, Europe’s production and
and a long time horizon, clearly stating understanding of the mobility system consumption systems are very often
the political ambition can give direction and its interactions, and increasing policy dominated by a small number of
to industry and consumers and be integration, is therefore crucial to achieve established actors. Moreover, there are
a leveraging point for achieving change. environmental objectives in Europe. marked differences in the roles and
powers of actors along the value chain,
To date there is no overarching for example between incumbents and
strategy linking the mobility system 16.5 new entrants. Such vested interests
in its entirety to all of the priority Insights across the three contribute to system inertia.
objectives set out in the Seventh systems
Environment Action Programme. Third, achieving sustainability
Nevertheless, with its three ‘Europe The assessment of Europe’s food, objectives is fundamentally dependent
on the move’ packages, the European energy and mobility systems in on individual and societal consumption
Commission ‘has developed a Sections 16.2-16.4 highlights some of choices — encompassing consumption
comprehensive, integrated, and the key challenges that Europe faces in levels, patterns and lifestyles. Local
forward‑looking approach to achieving achieving its long-term environmental initiatives are emerging, offering new
clean, connected and competitive and sustainability goals. Although there models of consuming and producing.
mobility for EU citizens’ (EC, 2018e). are signals of progress in food, energy Yet, the choices made by individuals
Although the need to adopt a systems and mobility, trends in environmental and governments are still largely
perspective to address challenges outcomes are not in line with meeting influenced by the dominant socio-
concerning GHG and air pollutant Europe’s long-term environmental and economic paradigm, which generally
emissions is clearly acknowledged in sustainability goals. Moreover, a wide promotes globalisation, consumerism,
several EU policies (EC, 2011b, 2018e) range of megatrends and emerging individualism and short-termism.
and policy proposals (EC, 2017c, trends are likely to create additional
2018i), the emphasis is generally on challenges (Chapter 1 and Section 15.1). Fourth, it is also important to
technology pathways, efficiency gains acknowledge the local heterogeneity
and optimisation (e.g. digitalisation, Looking across the three systems, it of the food, energy and mobility
automation, batteries), as well as is apparent that progress towards systems. Each differs markedly across
related enabling factors (e.g. research sustainability transitions in production Europe and its regions, in terms
and innovation, industrial leadership, and consumption systems is hindered of economic and infrastructural
multi‑modal transport networks). by a variety of systemic challenges. development and related consumption
The mechanisms that make the systems patterns, behaviours and lifestyles.
Europe is at the forefront of efforts resistant to change are varied in Countries and regions also vary
to tackle the environmental impacts nature, relating to the technological, greatly in terms of their natural
of the mobility system. Policies economic and biophysical elements endowments and related biophysical
seek to maximise benefits for in the systems, as well as feedback limits (e.g. availability of natural
citizens by increasingly addressing mechanisms and cross-system resources, productivity, yields, but also
decarbonisation and promoting the interactions. Several of these challenges technical efficiencies). This implies that
circular economy, safety, innovation, emerge as recurring features, although responses must be tailored to local
jobs and competitiveness (EC, 2018e). their characteristics differ across the realities; there are no ‘one-size-fits-all’
Nevertheless, impacts on natural capital, food, energy and mobility systems. solutions that apply across Europe.
including habitats and biodiversity,
and land and soil, are currently less First, the three systems are Fifth, the three systems are highly
characterised by lock-ins and path interconnected with each other, giving
dependency. In part, this reflects rise to pressures and impacts across
the fact that the system elements varied ecological systems and natural
— technologies, regulations, resources. They are also shaped by
Progress towards sustainability infrastructures, user patterns, and so changes in the fiscal and financial
on — have co-evolved over decades to systems. This interconnectedness
transitions is hindered
form relatively stable configurations. across systems means that system
by a variety of systemic They are also multi‑functional, implying reconfiguration is likely to lead to
challenges. that changes will result in a complex trade-offs among sustainability
mixture of trade-offs. outcomes.

PART 3
Sixth, policies can create enabling The key idea is that the many in upstream extraction (oil and gas rigs,
conditions to facilitate systemic change interlinkages within and between coal mines), conversion (power plants,
towards achieving sustainability complex systems mean that there oil and gas refineries) and infrastructure
objectives. Looking across the three are often strong economic, social and (oil and gas pipelines, electricity grids,
systems, it is evident that thematic psychological incentives that lock society gas grids) are huge, constituting deep
and sectoral policies increasingly into particular ways of meeting its needs. sunk costs that incumbent industries
reflect a systemic understanding of Radically altering these systems is likely are likely to protect. The lifetimes of
sustainability challenges. Several to disrupt established investments, jobs, these assets and infrastructures are in
thematic policies cover aspects ranging consumption patterns and behaviours, the order of decades, further locking in
from production to demand, often knowledge and values, inevitably existing systems.
addressing impacts across the full supply provoking resistance from affected
chain, e.g. through life cycle thinking. industries, regions or consumers. The • Jobs and earnings: Disruptive
Yet, the systems differ in terms of the interactions between these diverse innovations threaten established
ambition and coverage of the main elements also mean that efforts to businesses and can lead to structural
policy frameworks. In contrast to the change complex societal systems can economic change, resulting in job losses
energy and mobility systems, there is often produce unintended outcomes or and even impacting whole regional
currently no overarching policy on the surprises. economies. These effects are likely to
food system in Europe. Moreover, even create major resistance from industry
in the energy and mobility areas, the Looking across the three systems, a groups and trade unions. For example,
new frameworks are not comprehensive. number of important lock-ins stand out, Europe’s energy sector employs close
Although issues such as security of although their relative importance varies to 2.2 million people, spread over
supply, air pollution and climate are between systems: 90 000 enterprises and representing
recognised in full across energy and 2 % of total added value (EC, 2016b).
mobility, other environmental aspects • Emergence of a dominant Some regions are strongly dependent
such as protecting natural capital are design: Production costs for new on particular forms of energy
not sufficiently covered. Governance technologies often drop significantly production. For instance, many of the
responses are likewise oriented towards as output grows due to economies of 180 000 European jobs in coal mining
a limited set of approaches, emphasising scale and learning-by-doing, as well and 60 000 jobs in coal-fired power
technologies and market-based as network effects (Arthur, 1994). As a plants are concentrated in eastern
instruments. result, a technology (e.g. the internal Europe, which creates resistance
combustion engine) can establish to transitions in those areas. These
16.5.1 itself as the ‘dominant design’, realities are a key driver behind calls for
Societal lock-ins and barriers enjoying significant price/performance a ‘just transition’ (ILO, 2015; UNFCCC,
advantages over subsequent 2015).
The complexity and inertia that innovations. A dominant design becomes
characterise Europe’s systems of further entrenched when supply chains • User practices and lifestyles tend
production and consumption arise and industry networks emerge to supply to co-evolve with technologies and
in large part from the co-evolution of inputs, complementary technologies or related infrastructures. Mobility, for
diverse elements over long periods. infrastructure. This greatly increases the example, is a ‘derived demand’, which
For example, the emergence of the car jobs, earnings and investments tied to supports other social practices such
as the dominant form of land-based the dominant design. as leisure, visiting friends, shopping,
transport during the 20th century commuting to work, business travel and
was accompanied by major private • Sunk costs: Public and private taking children to school. For many of
investments in the skills, knowledge and investments in infrastructure — these activities, cars are often the most
infrastructure for producing cars; public particularly transport links and practical form of transport (in terms of
investments in the road infrastructure; urban development — are often travel time, carrying capacity, comfort),
the emergence of industries to very substantial and long lasting which is why many people choose this
manufacture and deliver fuel, tyres (Figure 16.4). Businesses and employees transport mode over others. Car use is
and other accessories; adaptation likewise make major investments in also stabilised by long‑standing positive
of urban design to suit the car; and manufacturing plants, knowledge cultural discourses, which associate
changes in behaviour, expectations and and skills, which are geared towards cars with values such as freedom,
cultural values linked to car ownership particular modes of production. In the individuality, power and success
(Unruh, 2000). energy sector, for example, investments (Sheller, 2004). Cognitive biases such as

© Rosana Grecchi, Sustainably Yours/EEA
PART 3
FIGURE 16.4 Average lifespans for selected energy-related capital stock
Incandescent light bulbs
Fluorescent light bulbs
Consumer electronics
Consumer appliances
Residential water heating
Residential heating/cooling
Cars
Trucks, buses, tractors
Manufacturing equipment
Electricity distribution
Power stations
Building stock
Transport, urban development
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Source: Based on Philibert and Pershing (2002).
loss aversion, status quo bias and the set to include investments to increase
endowment effect — whereby people the back-up capacity and extend
overvalue something simply because grids to allow more trade in electricity
they own it — can further deter lifestyle (van Vuuren and Hof, 2018). Lack of
changes. technological readiness (e.g. carbon
Market prices often capture and storage, large-scale
• Technological readiness and misrepresent the social back-up batteries, power-to-X) is a
infrastructural development play fundamental barrier to decarbonisation.
and environmental costs
fundamental roles too. For example,
the ‘carbon lock-in’ in the energy system of different modes • Biophysical lock-ins are created
(EEA, 2016d) stems from a combination of producing and consuming. by constraining factors, such as
of the mechanisms described above. water availability, soil quality and the
The shift towards a more distributed status of pollinators. These can affect
energy system increasingly reliant on opportunities for transformation,
renewable energy is likely to entail both particularly in the food system (Oliver
stranded assets (e.g. fossil fuel power et al., 2018). For example, it may be
facilities), and expensive investments hard to shift away from intensive
in new infrastructures to ensure a farming practices if heavy reliance
reliable supply of electricity. This looks on specific crops and livestock leads

PART 3
to a loss of genetic diversity in other in the short term but deliver long-term efforts to prevent an environmental or
varieties, or if resulting soil degradation benefits for society. At the broadest socio-economic problem in one location
makes it hard to reduce chemical scale, governments may be locked may result in substitution effects or
inputs. in to the economic growth paradigm relocation of production overseas
that is known to be socially and (known as ‘burden shifting’).
environmentally harmful, partly because
16.5.2 of the need to maintain employment
Political and economic barriers levels and finance the welfare state 16.5.3
(Kemp et al., 2018). Rebound effects
The effects of these lock-ins are often
compounded by additional barriers linked Altering sectoral policies (e.g. relating The effectiveness of policy interventions
to economic and political processes. to standards for products or processes) can also be offset by feedback
The structure and organisation of modern can be difficult because producers within systems. For example,
production-consumption systems has and consumers make choices and technology‑driven gains may be
been influenced to a large extent by investments based on them. undermined by lifestyle changes and
market incentives. Because market The common agricultural policy (CAP), increased consumption and production,
prices often misrepresent the social and for example, is a cornerstone of EU partly because improvements in
environmental costs of different modes policy that has helped to ensure efficiency tend to make a product
of producing and consuming, this has stable access to affordable food for or service cheaper and thus lead to
contributed to systems that are harmful Europeans, supporting livelihoods in increased production and consumption.
and unsustainable. farming, and modernising European This phenomenon is often referred to
agriculture. But it is also criticised for as the ‘rebound effect’.
Unfortunately, governments are often its associated environmental outcomes
constrained in their abilities to impose (ECA, 2018). Attempts to reform it Examples of this challenge can be found
regulations and pricing instruments radically have proven difficult; the across the food, energy and mobility
that are consistent with long-term structural stability of the CAP policy systems. For example, increased
sustainability goals. Groups with vested framework encourages gradual water savings in agriculture have
interests sometimes use corporate adjustment of agricultural practices been associated with an expansion of
political strategies to shape policies in (Chapter 13). irrigated areas, a shift to more intensive
their favour (Hillman and Hitt, 1999; and higher value crops and more
Levy and Egan, 2003). For example, The globalisation of production- frequent irrigation events (Font Vivanco
powerful mobility-related industries consumption systems creates additional et al., 2018). The benefits associated
(particularly the car industry) have been challenges. Consumers and producers with improvements in energy efficiency
quite effective in lobbying against stricter (at different stages) are unaware of in buildings (e.g. thermal insulation,
environmental regulations and ‘gaming’ the socio-economic and environmental efficient boilers and lighting) are often
emission tests (Fontaras et al., 2017). impacts of their choices and have offset at the macroeconomic scale
limited influence over them. These by the resulting savings being spent
Policy interventions that remove same characteristics significantly elsewhere in the economy
environmentally harmful subsidies or put constrain the efficiency of territorially (Font Vivanco et al., 2018).
in place taxes to address externalities will based policy instruments, particularly as
create winners and losers. For example, Improvements in fuel efficiency in
taxing food, energy and mobility can cars have not led to a reduction in
have regressive distributional impacts fuel consumption or GHG emissions
— hitting poor people hardest because because of increased car ownership
they spend a greater proportion of their and the distances driven (Figure 16.5).
income on such necessities (EEA, 2011b). Similarly, the environmental benefits of
It is also likely to have varying effects replacing car journeys with cycling or
on urban and rural populations, young reducing food waste will depend in part
people and the elderly. on whether consumers use the money
Electoral incentives can deter saved to increase their consumption of
Electoral incentives can further governments from acting other goods or services. In addition to
discourage politicians from introducing sustainably. highlighting challenges for governance,
measures that are likely to be unpopular these examples highlight the importance

PART 3
FIGURE 16.5 Fuel efficiency and fuel consumption in private cars, 1990-2015
Index = 1990
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Stock of cars GDP (2010 USD) Total distance travelled by cars Total energy consumption of cars
CO2 emissions of cars Average consumption of cars (l/100 km)
Sources: Enerdata (2019); World Bank (2019).
of focusing on transforming whole In reality, these systems (and others) depend heavily on the source of
systems, rather than seeking to alter are linked in complex ways, creating electricity used to charge vehicles
aspects of production or consumption. further lock-ins, trade-offs and (Figure 16.6). Investment choices in
uncertainties. the electricity sector can therefore
constrain or enable the transition
16.5.4 The food, energy and mobility towards electrical mobility.
System interactions and systems are linked both directly and
the resource nexus indirectly. Relatively simple interactions
occur because the systems overlap The resource nexus
Analysing production-consumption in significant respects, implying
systems in terms of their interlinked that changes in one system have Less direct but very important links
social, economic and environmental implications in others. For example, between the food, energy and mobility
dimensions provides vital insights into the shift to electric vehicles is likely systems arise because of their shared
the barriers to transforming them. to play an important role in reducing reliance on natural systems, both as
Yet, focusing on individual systems transport‑related GHG emissions in a source of resources and as a sink
understates the governance challenge. coming years, but the benefits will for wastes and emissions. As a result,

PART 3
FIGURE 16.6 Life cycle CO2 emissions for different vehicles and fuel types
CO2 emissions (g/km)

100 % coal
350 electricity
(indicative)
300
250 Petrol
Diesel Mixed electricity,

Renewable (based on
200 electricity EU average)
150
Renewable
100 electricity
50
0
Conventional Conventional Plug-in Battery electric Battery electric Battery electric
vehicle vehicle hybrid electric vehicle vehicle vehicle
vehicles
Vehicle production and disposal Fuel production CO2 exhaust emission
Sources: EEA (2016a), drawing on TNO (2015).
addressing problems in one area may that the interlinkages across systems
The concept of the ‘resource simply shift the burden to other systems. are considered and the trade-offs and
co‑benefits identified.
nexus’ recognises that Choices regarding land use affect both
food, energy, water, land, the current outcomes of the food, The concept of the ‘resource nexus’
materials and ecosystems energy and mobility systems and the essentially recognises that food,
are interconnected. potential for sustainability transitions. energy, water, land, materials
Such choices focus in particular on and ecosystems (Figure 16.7) are
how land is used to produce food, interconnected across space and time
fuel and biomass, to sequester carbon (Hoff, 2011). It supports sustainability
and to provide other ecosystem governance by helping to identify how
services. Agriculture, forestry and best to balance socio-economic and
land use are recognised as important environmental concerns. As the World
factors in meeting long-term climate Economic Forum (WEF, 2011) notes,
goals because of the need to achieve ‘any strategy that focuses on one part
negative emissions through carbon of the water‑food‑energy nexus without
sequestration. Achieving this will require considering its interconnections risks

PART 3
FIGURE 16.7 The five-node resource nexus — water, land, energy, materials and ecosystem services — embedded
in natural capital
Energy
Production and Ecos Interdependence among resources

consumption
tal
yste
s
rial
systems Nature's contributions to people

Biot
tic natural capi
te
m
Ma
serv
ic natural capit
Emissions and wastes flows
ices
Human
well-being
Abio
Food, energy, mobility

al
W
at
nd
er
La
Source: EEA.
serious unintended consequences’, such key role as a source of pressures on offers the potential for more integrated
as externalisation of environmental aquatic environments. Nexus thinking management of natural resources.
pressures, burden shifting or does not emerge prominently in policies Yet these frameworks also rely on the
distributional effects. regulating the energy sector, except same resource base, creating potential
in relation to the impact of biofuels synergies and trade-offs, as well
For example, analysis of 50 existing and bioliquids on biodiversity, water as raising questions about whether their
EU policies confirms that policy is resources, water quality and soil quality cumulative impacts are compatible with
normally framed within distinct sectoral (Venghaus and Hake, 2018). protecting natural capital in Europe and
mandates, e.g. for water, agriculture globally. Considering current and future
or energy (Venghaus and Hake, 2018). trends, there is a need to develop more
Interactions between these three The low-carbon, circular, knowledge of synergies and trade‑offs
domains have only recently become bioeconomy nexus and of how to reconcile economic
a focus for attention, primarily through activities, social needs and sustainable
informal statements of intent. The policy The emergence of broader and management of ecosystems (EC, 2018d).
areas in which cross-sectoral thinking is more systemic EU policy frameworks
most advanced are the agricultural and addressing the low-carbon economy, The finite capacity of ecosystems to
water sectors, because of agriculture’s circular economy and bioeconomy supply goods and services can also create

PART 3
biophysical lock-ins, potentially limiting acknowledged in research and

opportunities for sustainability transitions. In complex systems, policy policy. Yet the analysis in this chapter
For example, potential tensions can be highlights the extent of the challenge
interventions can result in ‘risk
expected between the CAP, the low- ahead. In seeking to transform societal
carbon economy, the circular economy
migration’, with successes systems, policymakers and other actors
and the bioeconomy, linked to goals of in one area offset by across society face diverse barriers and
increasing competitiveness and protecting the emergence of new risks lock-ins, as well as substantial trade‑offs
local ecosystems. The EU’s low‑carbon and the likelihood of unintended
elsewhere.
economy, circular economy and outcomes.
bioeconomy policies all target increased
use of biomass to replace fossil fuels, both The analysis of the food, energy
to generate energy and as inputs to the and mobility systems illustrates
chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors. that technology-oriented efficiency
Yet, resource nexus analysis suggests that improvements alone will not be
ecosystems cannot supply biomass and are significant. In a review of four sufficient to achieve the very
assimilate waste and emissions at the rate countries, the OECD found that materials substantial and urgent reductions
needed to meet these policy objectives. management (production of goods and in environmental pressures that
fuel, transport of goods, food production are required. Instead, there is a
Similarly, the need for new infrastructures and storage, waste processing) need to complement incremental
and materials to support the transition accounted for 50-65 % of national GHG improvements to established systems
to a low-carbon economy may be emissions (OECD, 2012). Another study with other measures addressing the
inconsistent with the goal of creating a estimated that implementing simple, scale or patterns of consumption.
more circular economy. A study by the already feasible, design options to
International Resource Panel calculated extend the lifetimes of laptops, printers The ‘avoid-shift-improve’ logic
that low-carbon technologies will and washing machines in the EU could provides a useful framework for
require over 600 million tonnes of metal lead to savings in GHG emissions of guiding policies and actions towards
resources by 2050 to cover additional over 1 million tonnes per year. This is reducing environmental pressures and
infrastructure and wiring requirements. equivalent to taking 477 000 cars off the addressing systemic challenges, as
Battery electric vehicles, for example, road for a year (EEB, 2015). indicated by Creutzig et al. (2018). As
increase metal consumption by around illustrated in Table 16.1 for the mobility,
50 % compared with petrol vehicles (Ekins Finally, in a systemic context, policy energy and food systems, ‘avoid’
et al., 2017). If this demand is not dealt interventions can also result in ‘risk refers to the avoidance of unnecessary
with in a circular manner, this will lead to migration’, in which successes in one demand and overconsumption, ‘shift’
higher GHG emissions. area are offset by the emergence of new refers to moving consumption towards
risks elsewhere. For instance, the circular the mode/device/service with the least
At the same time, there are also economy package aims to minimise impact, and ‘improve’ refers to increasing
important synergies between the extraction of raw materials and energy the environmental performance
frameworks. For example, recycling use by keeping products for longer of the process/product/service
critical raw materials can help secure within the economy and by recycling. (e.g. production, use, end-of-life
the resources, such as rare Earth However, the limited ability to track phases).
metals, needed for renewable energy chemicals in a circular economy could
technologies. More broadly, circular lead to the accumulation of hazardous The resource nexus approach exposes
strategies (e.g. reuse, recycling, substances in recycled materials another key governance challenge,
product‑service systems, sharing) and increase exposure to chemicals highlighting the interdependence
reduce GHG emissions, either directly (EEA, 2017a; Chapters 9 and 10). of production and consumption
(e.g. avoiding transport) or because systems and their cumulative impacts
the strategy requires fewer materials on ecosystems. Transforming
and/or products to meet the same 16.6 production‑consumption systems
needs. This then avoids GHG emissions Challenges for governance inevitably produces trade-offs, as
in the extraction, production, transport well as far‑reaching and uncertain
and waste processing phases of these The need to transform how we impacts. Yet established governance
(avoided) products. The implications produce and consume is now widely and knowledge systems are seldom

PART 3
TABLE 16.1 The ‘avoid-shift-improve’ framework applied to the food, energy and mobility systems
System Avoid Shift Improve
Mobility Compact cities, integrated transport and Shift from car to cycling, walking or Eco-driving, smaller, lightweight
land use planning, teleworking, sharing public transport vehicles
Energy Passive houses or retrofitted, long-lasting Heat pumps, district heating and Condensing boilers, insulation
devices, sharing machinery and appliances cooling, combined heat and power, options, energy-efficient appliances
recycled materials
Food Intake of calories and nutrients according Shift to protein sources other than Fresh instead of processed food,
to daily needs, reducing food waste meat where appropriate product ecolabels
Source: Modified, based on Creutzig et al. (2018).
designed to handle this kind of technologies — including artificial

complexity. Policies and actions at To achieve sustainable intelligence, robotics, 3D printing, the
different levels of governance — Internet of Things, nanotechnology
outcomes, there is a need for
from communities to international and biotechnology — threatens to
organisations — are often developed policies to embrace systems’ disrupt economic and social systems
in silos addressing specific sectors interconnectedness and links in profound ways. According to
or issues (Stirling, 2014; Wallis, 2015; between economic, social and Klaus Schwab, founder of the World
Venghaus and Hake, 2018). Research Economic Forum, ‘We stand on the
environmental goals.
is often similarly compartmentalised brink of a technological revolution that
within disciplinary boundaries, will fundamentally alter the way we
while indicators and knowledge live, work, and relate to one another.
infrastructures are seldom developed In its scale, scope, and complexity, the
and organised in ways that support a transformation will be unlike anything
systemic understanding of challenges interventions should be assessed humankind has experienced before.’
and responses. Collectively, these against multiple criteria. These include (Schwab, 2015).
factors make it hard to achieve feasibility against ecological and
adaptive governance processes that biophysical constraints, their viability The coming transformations are
can respond rapidly to new information for economy and society (e.g. effects likely to be disruptive for industries,
about the barriers, opportunities, on jobs, structure of the economy, investments and labour markets,
trade-offs and co-benefits associated import dependency), and their ability creating major challenges for
with systemic change. to meet multiple sustainability goals societies. Yet, they also present
simultaneously, both inside and opportunities to reshape societal
To achieve sustainable system outside Europe (Giampietro et al., systems in ways that are urgently
outcomes, there is a need for 2009; MAGIC‑NEXUS Project, 2018; needed. Chapter 17 explores these
policies that embrace the inherent Ripa et al., 2018). themes in more detail, examining
interconnectedness of system how Europe’s governments and
components, interactions across Looking ahead, the pressures on societies can respond to sustainability
systems, and links between economic, existing systems are set to increase. challenges by finding ways to change
social and environmental goals. To In addition to global demographic, production and consumption patterns
anticipate potential implications economic and environmental trends, in ways that can create a resilient and
and unintended consequences such the emergence of a cluster of related sustainable future.

17.
Responding
to sustainability
challenges
2
© Catalin Tibuleac, Sustainably Yours /EEA
3
par A
PART 2
Summary
• Responding to the persistent • Public policies and institutions
and emerging challenges facing can promote system innovation,
Europe will require transitions in the including by supporting
production‑consumption systems experimentation, correcting market
driving impacts on the environment failures, facilitating the spread of new
and health. ideas and approaches, and helping
ensure a just transition.
• Sustainability transitions are highly
complex and uncertain processes. • Governments can accelerate
Governments cannot simply plan and systemic change by helping cities to
implement them. Yet, public policies innovate and network, by reorienting
and institutions are essential to financial flows towards sustainable
catalyse and orient systemic changes investments and by developing
in cooperation with businesses and relevant knowledge systems and skills.
civil society.
• Achieving sustainability transitions
• Transitions involve the emergence requires public engagement in
and upscaling of diverse innovations. defining visions and pathways,
There is a need for more emphasis on coherence across policy domains
social innovation, behavioural change and scales, and use of foresight and
and nature-based solutions. adaptive approaches to navigate risks.
Ecosystem-based approaches can help
manage cross-system interactions
within environmental boundaries.
4 par A
PART 3
17.
Responding to sustainability
challenges
17.1 to produce synergies or trade-offs with

From challenges to responses other sustainability objectives.
During the last two decades, the Europe is not alone in needing to achieve
concepts of ‘sustainability transitions’ systemic change. Indeed, Europe cannot
and ‘transformations’ have become Systemic change is necessary achieve its sustainability objectives
increasingly prominent in the academic in isolation. The interconnection of
for the EU to achieve
literature (Köhler et al., 2019). Since the world’s environmental, social and
2015, this trend has been matched
its sustainability objectives. economic systems implies the need
by a growing uptake of the language for concerted international efforts.
and logic of sustainability transitions These are global problems, requiring
in European policy frameworks. As global responses.
noted in Chapter 15, the EU’s long‑term
strategy for a climate-neutral Europe In responding to these challenges,
and the European Commission’s societal actors and creating stakeholder the EU’s economic scale, diplomatic
reflection paper on the 2030 agenda for platforms; and increasing adoption of and trade links, and leadership in
sustainable development (EC, 2018b, system transitions approaches, including environmental governance confer
2019d) adopt the language of transitions particular emphasis on innovation. significant influence. Beyond
systematically. Similarly, EU strategies intergovernmental processes, the
such as the circular economy action As discussed in Chapter 16, the many globalisation of supply chains mean
plan, the Energy Union strategy and interlinkages in societal systems create that European product standards and
the ‘Europe on the move’ agenda a profoundly complex challenge for business practices can have effects well
embrace a systemic rather than a governance. Lock-ins, barriers and beyond Europe’s borders. Similarly, the
sectoral focus, emphasising economic feedbacks mean that interventions consumption choices of Europeans also
transformation towards long-term may encounter resistance or produce have implications for environmental and
targets (EC, 2015a, 2015b, 2017a). They unexpected outcomes, such as social outcomes across the world.
are characterised by multidimensional shifting problems to other locations,
goals, addressing themes such as jobs, rather than tackling them. These Nevertheless, there are clear
competitiveness, fair access to resources interdependencies also mean that constraints on Europe’s ability to shape
and sustainability; a focus on diverse pursuing environmental goals is likely environmental outcomes in other
SOER 2020/Responding to sustainability challenges 379

PART 3
ecology, evolutionary economics, developments include long-term

innovation theory and political economy megatrends (e.g. social, economic,
By embracing transitions,
each focus on different kinds of change environmental) as described in
demonstrating solutions and processes and scales of activity. Yet, Chapter 1, or more sudden shocks
seizing related opportunities this diversity is increasingly coalescing (e.g. a nuclear accident), which disrupt
Europe can lead the global into a broadly shared understanding the regime. Cracks in existing regimes
of sustainability challenges, which may arise from internal problems,
effort for change.
emphasises the barriers to transforming external landscape pressures or
complex systems and the role of drivers bottom-up pressure from niche
of change at the macro and micro levels innovations (Turnheim and Geels, 2012).
in enabling the emergence of new Collectively, this implies that transitions
regions. Decision-making processes ways of living, working and thinking occur through dynamic, multi-level
at the global level are frequently slow (EEA, 2018). interactions between diverse actors,
and produce disappointing outcomes, including businesses, users, researchers,
and enforcement mechanisms are The ‘multi-level perspective’ on transitions policymakers, social movements and
often lacking (EEA, 2015b). With this (Figure 17.1) is a useful model for interest groups.
in mind, Europe’s greatest potential understanding how these interactions
influence may come from global shape the dynamics of change in Figure 17.1 distinguishes three
leadership in embracing the need for production-consumption systems phases within transitions processes:
transformation — demonstrating that (Smith et al., 2010; Markard et al., 2012; the emergence of novel practices or
there are solutions to the problems Geels et al., 2017). It describes transition technologies; their diffusion and uptake
facing countries and regions across the processes as arising from the interplay across society; and the disruption and
world and seizing associated social and of developments at three levels: regime, reconfiguration of established systems.
economic opportunities. niche and landscape. At each phase, innovations face major
barriers, including inadequate funding,
The EU’s emerging strategic policy The regime comprises the diverse uncertainty about technical viability and
frameworks provide an essential factors that structure existing modes consumer responses, incompatibility
foundation but in practice they are just of producing and consuming. As with established regulations or cultural
a start. Major questions remain to be discussed in Section 16.5, these norms, and active resistance from
answered. How, for example, can the EU include technologies, regulations, incumbent businesses.
and its Members States translate their infrastructures, behaviours and cultural
long-term ambitions into coherent and norms, which have co-evolved in ways Transitions are thus fundamentally
relevant actions? How can society‑wide that hinder the emergence of alternative uncertain processes, typified by
systemic change be catalysed and technologies, business models and setbacks and accelerations, surprises
steered towards long-term goals? social practices. In terms of price and unintended consequences. This
And what role do public policies and and performance, for example, novel makes it impossible to know in advance
institutions at different levels have in innovations are likely to struggle against precisely what innovations will emerge,
such processes? This chapter begins to established approaches that have whether or how they will be integrated
respond to those questions. benefited from decades of incremental into lifestyles, and how they will affect
improvements and investments. sustainable outcomes.
17.2 For innovations to alter the dominant Figure 17.2 presents an application
Understanding sustainability system, three things are needed: niches, of the multi-level perspective to the
transitions landscape developments, and cracks food system, including illustrative
in existing regimes (Kemp et al., 1998). examples of landscape trends and
17.2.1 Niches are protected spaces, such important technological, social and
The multi-level perspective as R&D (research and development) organisational innovations. The
on transitions labs or demonstration projects, where multi‑level perspective also provides a
entrepreneurs can experiment and framework for integrating ideas from
The growing body of research develop radical innovations without a range of transitions perspectives
into sustainability transitions and direct exposure to market forces, (e.g. Smith, 2012; Göpel, 2016).
transformations has its roots in diverse consumer preferences, and so on These include insights into how
research fields. Disciplines such as (Smith and Raven, 2012). Landscape social practices change; the role of
380 SOER 2020/Responding to sustainability challenges

PART 3
FIGURE 17.1 The multilevel perspective on sustainability transitions
Landscape
Landscape developments put pressure on existing regime
Consumer
preferences Science
Regime
Skills Culture
Policy Investments
The regime is initially stable Tensions occur in the regime, Multiple adjustments occur
and evolves incrementally creating windows in the regime and a new configuration
of opportunity becomes established
Niches
Small networks of actors support innovation based on

expectations and visions. Experiments and learning take place
Time
Emergence Diffusion Reconfiguration
Source: Based on Geels (2002).
the importance of practices, values, instruments to correct market

worldviews and paradigms (EEA, 2018). failures and using intergovernmental
Sustainability transitions
agreements to address transboundary
are non-linear, issues and global collective action
society‑wide processes 17.2.2 problems such as climate change.
built on innovation and Implications for governance While these tools remain essential,
they also face important constraints.
knowledge creation.
The dynamics and interactions set For example, governments often face
out in the multi-level perspective significant political barriers when
point to the need for new governance seeking to introduce regulations and
communities and cities in enabling approaches to support sustainability pricing instruments consistent with
more polycentric forms of governance, transitions. Historically, societies have long-term sustainability goals. Equally,
founded on bottom-up action by relied on governments to manage the deficiencies of global governance
communities and other groups; the the risks and harms associated processes often mean that negotiated
potential impacts of systemic change with economic growth — primarily targets lack the necessary ambition and
on society and the environment; and employing regulations and pricing enforcement mechanisms.

PART 3
FIGURE 17.2 Applying the multi-level perspective to the food system
Climate change and Digitalisation/robotics Demographic

Landscape trends land degradation developments
Composting/
fermentation
Food system Agricultural Food Food Food Food/organic

production processing retailing consumption waste
Final deposition
Organic Precision In‑vitro Food Community

Niche innovations supported
farming farming meat councils agriculture
Such realities imply that a purely government towards the broader and ensures a fair sharing of costs and
hierarchical, top-down approach concept of governance, which benefits. Urban authorities and city
to achieving Europe’s sustainability emphasises the complementary role of networks have a key role. Public bodies
objectives will not achieve systemic governments, markets and networks are also vital in stimulating needed
change at the scale and pace needed. in organising society (Rhodes, 1997; investment, developing necessary
As Hajer at al. (2015) argue: van Heffen et al., 2000; EEA, 2015b). Such knowledge, providing directionality and
reasoning acknowledges the limitations coherence to activities across society,
The SDGs [Sustainable Development of government power but also and creating mechanisms to anticipate
Goals] … risk falling short of expectations recognises that public authorities have and adapt to new risks and emerging
because of what we call ‘cockpit-ism’: unique capacities, resources and powers issues. These issues are explored in
the illusion that top-down steering by to identify and agree society-wide goals; detail in the remainder of this chapter.
governments and intergovernmental to correct the operation of markets;
organisations alone can address and to stimulate and enable polycentric
global problems. In view of the limited forms of governance, based on social 17.3
effectiveness of intergovernmental efforts interaction and information sharing. Catalysing innovation and
and questions about the capacity of system change
national governments to affect change, For example, stringent environmental
the SDGs need to additionally mobilise regulations and pricing instruments Sustainability transitions are long‑term
new agents of change such as businesses, remain important, but promoting system processes, often extending over
cities and civil society. innovation also requires a policy mix that 25‑50 years or more (Grin et al., 2010)
supports the emergence and diffusion and involving the emergence and
These observations have been of new technologies and practices, upscaling of multiple innovations over
associated with a shift in focus from helps phase out established systems shorter time scales. No single innovation

PART 3
TABLE 17.1 Examples of sustainability innovations in the mobility, food and energy domains
Mobility Food Energy
Incremental technical Fuel-efficient petrol or diesel cars Precision farming, food waste Insulation, energy-efficient
innovation valorisation, integrated pest appliances, efficient gas or
management coal‑fired power plants
Radical technical Battery electric vehicles, electric bikes, Permaculture, no-tillage farming, Renewable electricity, heat
innovation alternative fuels, autonomous vehicles plant-based meat and dairy pumps, passive houses,
products, genetic modification whole‑house retrofitting,
smart meters
Social or behavioural Car sharing, modal shift, Alternative food networks, Decentralised energy
innovation teleconferencing, teleworking, organic food, dietary change, production (‘prosumers’),
internet retail urban farming, food councils community energy, energy
cafes
Business model Mobility services, car sharing, Alternative food networks, Energy service companies,
innovation remanufacturing vehicles, bike sharing organic food back-up capacity,
vehicle‑to‑grid electricity
provision
Infrastructural Intermodal transport systems, Reforms to distribution systems, District heating systems,
innovation compact cities, integrated transport storage provision and better smart grids, bio-methane in
and land use planning food waste management reconfigured gas grid
will hold the key to systemic change. reduce the need for mobility. Such innovations that can drive systemic
Equally, the diversity of local contexts innovations will bring changes in social change. A diversity of ideas and
and challenges means that there are no norms, values and lifestyles. approaches is important, because the
single solutions applicable everywhere. viability and sustainability impacts
While transitions involve changes of individual innovations are very
The electric motor, for example, will across society, governments have a hard to anticipate in advance and will
surely have a role in transforming the key role in stimulating and orienting often vary in different contexts. In the
European mobility system, but it would the direction of change and in reducing energy, food and mobility domains,
still imply substantial resource demands, the many barriers to transitions. This multiple innovations are emerging that
pollution and congestion (Section 16.4). section explores how public policies deviate in one or more dimensions
The fundamental issue is not how to and institutions can provide support at from current modes of consuming and
create a more sustainable car but rather each of the three phases identified in producing (Table 17.1). Sometimes
how to meet society’s need for point- Figure 17.1 — emergence of innovations, these involve reviving or adapting older
to-point mobility and, perhaps more their diffusion and subsequent practices, for example initiatives that
fundamentally, for social interaction and reconfiguration of established systems. facilitate the reuse or repair of products.
access to goods and services. As such, In addition, different forms of innovation
the transition to sustainable mobility often interact. Car sharing and bike
will require numerous changes, ranging 17.3.1 sharing are not just about behavioural
from car-sharing schemes, driverless Promoting sustainability innovation change, but they also represent new
cars and a shift to alternative modes and experimentation business models and new technologies
of transport (e.g. walking, cycling) to (e.g. electronic booking systems,
improved spatial planning and novel Novel social practices, technologies GPS — or global positioning systems,
communication technologies that can and business models are the core smart cars).

PART 3
TABLE 17.2 Changing innovation policy framings
Overarching Key features Era Policy rationale Policy approaches

framing (examples)
Innovation for Science and technology Since the 1950s Responding to market failure: State financing of basic R&D,
growth for growth, promoting public good character of incentives for business R&D
production and innovation necessitates state (e.g. tax breaks, subsidies)
consumption action
National system Importance of Since the 1980s Responding to system failure: Promoting science hubs;
of innovation knowledge systems maintaining competitiviness, incentivising coordination;
in development and coordinating system SMEs; education and
uptake of innovations stakeholders training
Transformative Alignment of social Since the 2010s Promoting transformation: Social challenges (H2020),
change and environmental pathways, coordination SDGs, mission-oriented
challenges with domains, experimentation, approaches to innovation
innovation objectives learning (FP9)
Note: FP9, Framework Programme 9; H2020, Horizon 2020; SMEs, small and medium-sized enterprises.
Source: Based on Schot and Steinmueller (2018).
The character, rationale and extent exemplified by the SDGs (Schot and experimentation and learning, using
of government interventions to Steinmueller, 2018). pilots, demonstration projects and urban
support innovation has developed labs. These provide a means of exploring
over time (Table 17.2). From the This emphasis on the directionality of sustainability outcomes, identifying
mid‑20th century, policy interventions innovation reflects a growing awareness barriers, facilitating social acceptance
focused on addressing market that economic development approaches and building coalitions of actors.
failures, using state investments in that promote all innovation and then Accepting and learning from failures is
R&D to compensate for inadequate seek to tackle harmful consequences essential (Temmes et al., 2014).
private investment. Since the 1980s, through regulation and economic
governments have extended this instruments are unsustainable. In Making innovations work in the
focus to include promoting learning practice, it implies the need not only to real world often requires input
and knowledge circulation within stimulate particular types of innovation from a diverse range of actors with
innovation systems, comprising (e.g. green technologies) but also different kinds of resources, including
diverse actors including universities, for greater emphasis on real-world researchers, businesses, investors,
businesses and government agencies. regulators and users. This point
Both of these framings for innovation is integral to the EU’s concept of
policy remain valid and important Responsible Research and Innovation
today. Europe could certainly do (EC, 2014b). Its importance is also
more to increase investments in basic expressed clearly in the EU’s ‘Lamy
research (Section 17.4.2) and to use report’ on maximising the impact of
education, science, business and tax EU research and innovation programmes
policies to create an environment that (EC, 2017d):
enables and promotes innovation
across society. But recent transitions Fully mobilising and involving stakeholders,
Making innovations work
research also points to the emergence end-users and citizens in the post-2020 EU
of a third generation of innovation
in the real world R&I programme, for instance in defining its
policy that focuses on enabling and requires inputs missions, will not only increase the degree
promoting transformation towards from diverse actors. of co-creation, it will also maximise its
long-term sustainability objectives, as impact and stimulate a stronger demand

PART 3
for innovative products and services as well of creativity and innovation. Indeed, as (AFNs) are food provisioning practices
as a better grasp of social changes. This will Stirling (2015) notes, ‘It is remarkable how based on shorter supply chains and
bring open science and open innovation many current major global industries direct producer-consumer interactions
to the next level and turn Europe into a are building around once-marginal (e.g. farmers markets, direct farm sale,
continental living innovation lab. technologies like wind turbines, ecological weekly box schemes). In addition to
farming, super energy-efficient buildings, reducing transport-related pollution,
In recent years, European innovation or green chemistry. All of these owe AFNs entail more direct interactions with
policy has broadened its focus to key elements in their pioneering origins food producers, potentially fostering a
RD&D (research, development and to early development by grassroots better understanding of environmental
demonstration). It could continue social movements.’ As such, transitions and social impacts of food choices and
further towards promoting real-world policy should build on the groundswell influencing consumer expectations and
demonstrations and experiments, for of bottom-up sustainability initiatives food system norms (Forssell, 2017).
example by providing additional financial and further mobilise the ‘energetic
support for social and grassroots society’ of engaged citizens, professional There are now thousands of community
innovations. In the EU context, the non‑governmental organisations (NGOs) energy initiatives across Europe
establishment of an Innovation Fund, and motivated communities (Hajer, 2011). (Hossain, 2018), some benefiting directly
to distribute financial resources from EU support. Such initiatives
collected under the EU Emissions Social innovations and grassroots are decentralised, small-scale forms
Trading System, is a useful step. The innovations tend to be more radical of energy production (often solar
new fund will support, on a competitive than business-driven greening efforts, photovoltaic (PV) or wind turbines) that
basis, the demonstration of innovative for example in questioning conventional are locally owned and operated, often
technologies and breakthrough consumerism and advocating change engaging civil society groups, such as
innovations in areas such as renewables, in user practices and lifestyles. They social enterprises, schools, businesses,
carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) are often more oriented towards faith groups, local government or utility
and energy storage (EC, 2018j). social justice or alternative economic companies (Seyfang et al., 2014). In
rationales (e.g. community ownership, Germany, more than 700 community
Public authorities can also assist self-sufficiency). They are also highly energy initiatives (mostly citizens in
local projects by facilitating contextual and often developed in cooperatives) account for about 40 % of
networking and knowledge exchange response to real local problems (Seyfang renewable energy capacity (DECC, 2014;
through workshops, innovation or and Smith, 2007). de Vries et al., 2016).
implementation agencies, or by
establishing (digital) platforms. Another In recent years, many European Similarly, there are several hundred
option is to provide exemptions from countries have experienced a surge ‘transition town’ initiatives in Europe.
regulations that hinder particular of bottom-up social and grassroots Transition towns are community
innovations or entrepreneurship. innovations. Several of the promising projects that aim to increase
For example, emulating a government innovations highlighted in Table 17.1 self‑sufficiency to reduce the potential
programme in the Netherlands, the EU’s started as grassroots initiatives. For effects of climate change and economic
circular economy action plan applied example, alternative food networks instability. They do this by stimulating
the concept of ‘innovation deals’, renewable energy production,
which identify and address potential lifestyle change, community housing,
regulatory obstacles for innovators alternative local currencies, repair
(EC, 2018h). Such measures would align cafes and community cafes using food
with the EU’s ambition to ‘stimulate a that would otherwise go to waste.
culture of experimentation and risk There are many similar networking
taking’ (EC, 2018d), while respecting initiatives at international and national
environmental standards and the levels, for example Global Action Plan
precautionary principle. Social innovations and and Switzerland’s ‘Les artisans de la
grassroots innovations are transition’ (ADLT, 2019; GAP, 2019).
Engaging and mobilising society

often more radical than National and European monitoring
business‑driven ‘greening’ of social and grassroots innovations
Citizens, communities and civil society efforts. is difficult and underdeveloped, but
groups represent important sources the total number of initiatives across

PART 3
Europe is likely to number in the tens of extreme events — while also providing
BOX 17.1 thousands. Cumulatively they represent cultural benefits (Raymond et al., 2017).
Climathon: transformative a substantial amount of societal energy
approaches to flood risk adaptation
that policymakers could engage with Compared with grey infrastructure,
more strategically (e.g. Box 17.1). nature-based solutions can perform well
T o support transformative adaptation,

the city of Vejle, Denmark,
co‑organised with Climate-KIC a 24-hour
Although social and grassroots
innovations sometimes receive some
short-term seed money, they are rarely
in financial terms, as well as providing
substantial non-market co-benefits
(Box 17.2). For example, restoring or
Climathon event, to develop innovative the focus of dedicated policy attention creating wetlands on the banks of rivers
ways to adapt to river and coastal flooding and sustained support. upstream can function as watersheds
in Vejle. The event was open to those with that can concurrently mitigate flooding
a desire to create new solutions, including Governments could offer more support downstream, filter contaminated water,
engineers, designers, business people, for civil society innovations, for example increase biodiversity and enhance
software developers, social scientists and by funding citizens’ groups and projects; recreation opportunities. Landscape
legal or financial experts. The attendees providing privileged access to public conservation and restoration measures
pitched their solution to a panel of infrastructure (e.g. vacant land or can function as natural water filtration
experts, including city representatives. offices); facilitating the circulation of plants, replacing conventional water
The winning idea addressed surface knowledge about grassroots projects; treatment technologies. Forests can
flooding by replacing a standard stimulating experimental partnerships reduce or even prevent pollutants from
pavement with a partly glass‑covered with public services (e.g. schools, entering streams that supply fresh water
underground concrete stream: a hospitals); and more publicly displaying to downstream urban areas. Man-made
‘transparent urban waterway’. The support for citizen-led sustainability features such as green walls, green roofs
winning team established the company projects and their positive contribution and sustainable urban drainage systems
Climate Change Consulting DK, meaning to public life locally. This may require can mitigate the impacts of storm water
that the event produced both innovative some institutional change to overcome by slowing the rate of run-off through
solutions and entrepreneurial activity. ■ the potential mismatch between retention, as well as decreasing urban
informal grassroots innovations and heat effects, improving insulation and
Source: ETC/CCA et al. (2018).
formal procedures for policy support providing habitat for a variety of species.
(e.g. proposal writing, organisational
structures, accountability, budgetary Green infrastructure can be implemented
reporting). Intermediary organisations either standalone or in integrated
that connect and support multiple solutions that combine both green and
initiatives (Section 17.3.2) also play a grey infrastructure. Integrating green
valuable role in this area. infrastructure into spatial planning can
In addition to generating
capitalise on the strengths of both grey
financial returns, and green infrastructure to foster resilient
nature-based solutions Nature-based solutions results (Browder et al., 2019). Green
can deliver substantial infrastructure can also be applied on
The EU’s Seventh Environment Action different scales — from green walls and
non-market benefits.
Programme, the biodiversity strategy to roofs on buildings, to green belts through
2020 and the EU’s Horizon 2020 research industrial complexes, to large-scale
and innovation programme each watershed restoration and reforestation,
promote the use of ‘green infrastructure’ in urban, peri-urban, rural and marine
and ‘nature-based solutions’ as responses areas. The co-benefits are diverse. For
to sustainability problems and as an example, evidence from 18 ‘urban labs’
alternative to ‘grey infrastructure’ across Europe shows that high-quality,
(i.e. human-engineered solutions, often biodiversity-rich areas of urban green
employing concrete and steel). Green infrastructure can help address air
infrastructure and nature‑based solutions pollution, noise, climate change impacts,
make use of the capacity of ecosystems heat waves, floods and public health
to deliver highly valuable regulating problems (Maes et al., 2017). Investments
services — such as capturing carbon, can also provide more direct economic
regulating water flows or moderating benefits, such as increasing property

PART 3
values. In designing initiatives and policy mainstream. Economists often favour

interventions, it is important to ensure the use of economy-wide instruments, BOX 17.2
that such benefits are distributed fairly, such as environmental taxes or cap- Non-market benefits of Lisbon’s
street trees
including across localities, regions and and-trade policies, which internalise
income groups. the social and environmental costs of
The relative novelty of nature-based

solutions can mean that they are
production in market prices. Models
suggest that ‘technology-neutral’
instruments of this sort are cost-
A cost-benefit analysis of street
trees in Lisbon (Soares et al., 2011)
showed that for every EUR 1 invested
sometimes expensive in financial effective because they enable market annually by the municipality in tree
terms when compared with grey forces to direct investments towards management, residents receive benefits
infrastructure alternatives, which have the most efficient technologies, and valued at EUR 3.11. Each of Lisbon’s
benefited from decades of investments avoid errors when public authorities trees is estimated to provide annual
and efficiency improvements. As with seek to pick winners. benefits of EUR 4.27 in energy savings,
other innovations, however, wider EUR 0.23 in reduced CO2 emissions,
use of nature-based solutions is likely In addition to shaping the selection EUR 3.75 in reduced air pollutant
to produce economies of scale and environment for new technologies deposition, EUR 33.18 in reduced
learning, leading to cost reductions. For and supporting their diffusion, storm water run-off and as much as
example, the cost of green roofs has broadly focused instruments such EUR 100.40 in increased real estate
fallen substantially in several countries as taxes and regulations can also values. In total, Lisbon’s 41 247 street
during recent years (Nurmi et al., 2013). stimulate innovation. Although it runs trees are calculated to provide
counter to common perceptions, services valued at EUR 5.8 million
there is much evidence to support annually, while EUR 1.3 million is spent
17.3.2 the ‘Porter hypothesis’ that strict maintaining them.
Supporting diffusion of promising environmental policy can stimulate
innovations innovation and job creation, rather Further city case studies can be found
than hindering them (Rayment et al., at the Oppla platform: https://oppla.eu/
For many innovations, moving beyond 2009; OECD, 2010; EEA, 2014, 2016c). nbs/case-studies. ■
experimentation towards wider adoption The European countries with the
occurs via market diffusion, as learning most stringent environmental policies
and expanding production enable a new are generally characterised by high
product or business model to become levels of eco-innovation and economic
more competitive. In other cases, such competitiveness (Figure 17.3; EEA, 2016b).
as local initiatives and social innovations,
the diffusion process may occur through Economic instruments also have some
Environmental policy
replication or adaptation of an idea in a important limitations. First, efforts to
new location. In either case, innovations tax activities in one location may not can often drive innovation
often face major barriers to upscaling, have the desired effect if they cause and job creation,
ranging from upfront costs of switching production to shift to other countries rather than hindering them.
to a new technology and consumer or incentivise businesses to use
uncertainties to the absence of necessary substitute resources (ETC/SCP et al.,
infrastructure or mechanisms for sharing 2015). Second, introducing general
knowledge. Perhaps most fundamentally, economic instruments (e.g. a carbon
incumbents often enjoy a competitive tax) faces major political obstacles
advantage because the social and because the benefits are diffuse, hard
environmental costs of production are to measure, and lie in the future,
not fully represented in market prices. whereas the costs are concentrated and
immediate (Hughes and Urpelainen,
2015). Powerful industries (oil, cars,
‘Levelling the playing field’ utilities, retail) tend to resist their
by fixing market failures introduction and consumers may also
raise opposition, particularly because
Governments have a variety of tools the costs of environmental taxes may
available to help innovations to become fall disproportionately on lower income

PART 3
FIGURE 17.3 Demanding environmental policy is associated with greater competitiveness

and more eco-innovation
Denmark Netherlands
More stringent
United
Kingdom Finland
France Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
Slovakia Germany
Poland Austria
Stri ngency of environmental policies
Italy
Hungary
Belgium
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
Global competitiveness ranking More competitive
Position in EU eco‑innovation rankings

Countries ranked 1‑9 Countries ranked 10‑18 Countries ranked 19‑27 Not applicable
Notes: The figure includes all EEA member countries for which data are available on stringency of environmental policy.
OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
environmental harms, as well as their design and communicate environmental

Environmental tax reforms administrative cost-effectiveness, taxes as part of broader packages of
environmental tax revenues in environmental fiscal reform that ensure
need to ensure
the 28 EU Member States (EU-28) a socially fair distribution of costs and
a socially fair distribution decreased from 2.6 % to 2.4 % of gross benefits. This can include offsetting new
of costs and benefits. domestic product (GDP) between 1995 taxes with reduced taxation of other
and 2017. Nevertheless, revenues from activities (e.g. labour or sustainable
environmental taxes amounted to consumption), as well as direct support
some EUR 370 billion in 2017 — funds for the groups or regions affected.
that could be more clearly directed in
support of sustainability transitions. A third concern with general economic
groups (Chapter 16). This often leads instruments is that empirical studies
to defeat or watering down of the These challenges also point to the suggest that purportedly neutral policy
instrument. It is notable, for example, benefits of coordinating environmental tools inevitably involve an element of
that, despite years of advocacy for a taxation across countries to limit burden selection, as they steer resources to
shift towards increasing taxation of shifting. They also highlight the need to technologies that are currently cheapest

PART 3
but not necessarily those that are most of investments, skills, knowledge,
promising or potentially disruptive. Knowledge sharing organisational structures and
For this reason, technology-specific revenue flows. In some instances, the
is particularly important
instruments may also be needed to drive emergence of innovations may lead to
the development and deployment of
to enable the diffusion the collapse of incumbents; in others,
radically new technologies (Bergek and of grassroots initiatives and established firms may hinder the
Berggren, 2014). social innovations. diffusion of an innovation or shift their
business model towards embracing
it. Policies influence this process of
Promoting specific innovations integration in the business environment
both by stimulating consumer demand
Diffusion of innovations often requires and by facilitating or mandating
targeted measures that reduce the positive stories about renewable energy changes in production. Box 17.3
costs and uncertainties of switching to and green growth and jobs related to illustrates the broad range of measures
new technologies and practices. For German manufacturers of wind turbines that are contributing to diffusion of
example, financial instruments such as and solar panels (Geels et al., 2016). electric vehicles.
purchase subsidies, low-interest loans This narrative was promoted by a green
or feed‑in‑tariffs can help offset price advocacy coalition, which included not
differentials with established products. just environmental groups, solar PV Upscaling local projects and
Non-financial incentives (including and wind associations but also metal grassroots innovations
removing legal barriers, e.g. for food and machine workers, farmer groups
donations) can further increase the and church groups. Governments and The upscaling of sustainability
appeal of initiatives. Public procurement other actors can shape narratives by innovations also depends critically
can create a market for sustainable goods disseminating information (e.g. via on sharing knowledge and insights
and services (e.g. Copenhagen’s public labelling or media campaigns) and gained from experimentation and
sector canteens and food services served framing it in ways that positively affect demonstration projects. In practice,
88 % organic food in 2015 (KK, 2016)). attitudes, beliefs and norms (e.g. social lessons and insights are seldom
Investments in necessary infrastructure marketing or ‘nudging’). Insights from shared widely, which often leads local
are often essential for diffusion of behavioural sciences are increasingly innovators to ‘reinvent the wheel’. The
technologies (e.g. distributed energy applied to policy initiatives across impact of Europe’s many bottom-up
production). And safety regulations and Europe (EC, 2016a). initiatives will be less as long as they
standardisation can generate trust and remain fragmented and short lived
confidence in novel technologies. In view of the recent proliferation (Turnheim et al., 2018).
of initiatives and labels related to
Standards can also influence the environmental and sustainability Knowledge sharing is particularly
diffusion of innovations, including information, it is essential to develop important for grassroots initiatives
beyond Europe’s borders. Standards, standards to increase consumer trust. and social innovations, which rely less
certification schemes and labels In 2013, the European Commission on market forces to drive diffusion. In
often emerge through an interaction published a recommendation on the these cases, scaling can take the form
of different stakeholders, with civil use of the product and organisation of ‘scaling out’ — replicating a social
society organisations proposing new environmental footprint (PEF and innovation in a different location; ‘scaling
benchmarks, and companies promoting OEF) methods (EC, 2013a). This was up’ — influencing laws and policies
their harmonisation and enforcement in followed by collaboration with industry at higher levels; or ‘scaling deep’ —
different regions as a means of reducing to develop and apply methods and developing narratives that resonate
production costs or achieving a level develop approaches to verification and with cultural values (Moore et al., 2015).
playing field with competitors. communication aimed at building a All types of scaling rely on knowledge
single market for green products. transmission.
Diffusion also involves changing
user practices, norms and business Integration of innovations into the Governments can stimulate the
processes. In part, this is about business environment often represents circulation of knowledge and lessons
developing positive narratives. Uptake a challenge, as incumbent businesses learned between social innovation
of renewable technologies in Germany, are often geared towards established projects and pilots, for example
for example, was initially underpinned by technologies and practices — in terms by standardising information and

PART 3
BOX 17.3 Electric vehicle diffusion
E lectric vehicles have started

diffusing, and the total global stock
passed 3 million in 2017 (Figure 17.4).
In all of the countries that are pioneering
the diffusion of electric vehicles, public
policies at national and local levels are
as well as the value of policy support for
electrifying public transport.
Annual sales in 2017 were 54 % higher playing a major role. The most prominent Measures used across Europe include
than in 2016, surpassing 1 million units, are direct consumer incentives such financial support to the electric vehicle
with more than half of those global as vehicle purchase subsidies or tax industry; public investments in charging
sales in China (IEA, 2018b). Only a exemptions. There is a clear correlation infrastructure or subsidies for home
few countries have fairly high market between the strength of financial chargers; public procurement of electric
shares: Norway (39.2 %), Iceland (12 %) incentives and the speed of diffusion vehicles (e.g. for municipal vehicle fleets);
and Sweden (6.3 %). The remainder (Wesseling, 2016). Even with grants, state aid for electric public transport;
have shares under 3 %. In 2017, however, the up-front costs of electric indirect consumer incentives such
members of the International Energy vehicles remain higher than those of other as preferential access to bus lanes,
Agency’s Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) cars. Early adopters are often middle‑aged, free or preferential parking, access to
set the aspirational goal of achieving a well-educated, affluent, urban men, who low‑emission zones, free charging at
30 % market share for electric vehicles are motivated by pro-environmental public stations and road toll exemptions;
in each country by 2030. The EVI attitudes, a desire to save on fuel costs consumer outreach and education
members comprise Canada, China, and an active interest in new technology policies; and regulatory incentives such
Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, (Nilsson and Nykvist, 2016). These factors as sales targets for electric vehicle
Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, point to the importance of complementary manufacturers or bans on sales of internal
Sweden, the United Kingdom and the measures that can shift public perceptions combustion engine vehicles (EEA, 2016a;
United States. and drive changes in business practice, CCC, 2018; EC, 2018i). ■
FIGURE 17.4 Cumulative global fleet of electric vehicles

Million electric vehicles
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China USA Europe Others
Source: IEA (2018a).

PART 3
BOX 17.4 Austrian biomass district heating systems
B iomass district heating (BMDH)

systems (which use pellets and waste
wood from Austria’s forests) emerged in
organisations, such as the Austrian
Biomass Association, were created
to compare experiences, formulate
environment by harmonising the
eligibility, application and payment
procedures for capital grants for BMDH
the late 1970s in rural villages. They were lessons and share insights. Pioneering systems in 1995. In 2000, technical
pioneered by new entrants to the market, provinces launched energy agencies that performance guidelines were introduced
such as sawmill owners, carpenters and provided training, technical advice and and disseminated through seminars
monasteries, who sold heating services financial support for BMDH developers. and training courses. Stable rules
to nearby houses. From the mid-1980s, These activities substantially improved enabled more reliable calculation of
these small- to medium-scale village technical and economic performance in cost-benefits, which in the early 2000s
heat-only systems started to diffuse the 1980s and early 1990s. Collectively, stimulated the involvement of energy
more widely. At this time, farmers, who these changes resulted in a 10-fold utilities and the National Forestry
in Austria often own forests, started increase in the total number of BMDH Agency, which constructed large-scale
building more local BMDH plants to systems in Austria between the BMDH systems to co-generate heat
develop the market for wood products. mid‑1980s and the end of the 1990s. and power. This produced exponential
growth in the period 2000-2010. By 2010,
Recognising opportunities for rural At the national level, the federal Austria had approximately 3 100 BMDH
revitalisation, public authorities began to Environmental Promotion Fund systems, of which about 2 500 were
provide support. Dedicated intermediary streamlined the complex policy village heating systems. ■
Source: Based on Geels and Johnson (2018).
organising workshops. Implementation encompasses more than a thousand

agencies (e.g. energy agencies or local transition initiatives in 43 countries Public institutions and social
innovation agencies) can play a and has developed a guide that
networks have key roles
valuable role as intermediaries, articulates core values and operational
because they engage with multiple principles for setting new initiatives in sharing knowledge
projects, enabling them to compare (TN, 2018). Similarly, Community Power, and lessons learned.
them and extract and codify a network established by Friends of the
general lessons, so that these can Earth Europe to support community
provide insights for new projects or energy, engages in knowledge sharing
policymaking (Geels and Deuten, 2006; and political lobbying for legislative
Kivimaa, 2014). Box 17.4 illustrates the change (EEA, 2018). values (Berkhout, 2006; von Oelreich
role of intermediaries in knowledge and Milestad, 2017).
circulation and aggregation in the Grassroots innovations can take
diffusion of biomass district heating several decades to reach scale
systems in Austria. (e.g. Box 17.5). They can be nurtured 17.3.3
through dedicated efforts such as Managing phase-out, disruption and
Social and grassroots initiatives are providing local finance (e.g. public structural change
often diverse in character and context banks), community building, political
specific, which can make it difficult to lobbying, professionalisation, engaging Deliberate phase-out actions that target
extract lessons and disseminate good with incumbent actors and providing the decline of existing technologies and
practice. Nevertheless, intermediary policy support. Mainstreaming may also practices are necessary to accelerate
organisations or social networks can involve a degree of co-option (e.g. by sustainability transitions. Such actions
play a useful role (EEA, 2018). The big businesses) and divergence from are still quite rare, but they are gaining
Transition Network, for instance, their initial grassroots visions and political salience and include bans

PART 3
BOX 17.5 Mainstreaming organic food
O rganic food was pioneered in

the 1930s by activist farmers
and scientists as a means of recycling
In the 1990s and early 2000s, market
demand for organic food grew
(Figure 17.5), partly in response to
business. Organic farming moved
from niche to mainstream and, in the
process, diverged from some of its
nutrients and organic matter and food scandals. Supermarkets became initial grassroots values such as local
improving human and animal health. interested, encouraging farmers to production and broader sustainability
Between 1970 and 1990, a more convert to organic production, and values (Smith, 2006). Although organic
organised organic food movement policymakers introduced organic farming food has become a profitable and
emerged, advocating small-scale policies and supported research and fast-growing market, it remains more
production and localism. Gradually, technical training. expensive than mainstream food,
associations were created that which means that wider diffusion
developed organic standards to build As big farming businesses entered the beyond affluent consumers or those
consumer trust and engaged in political market, greater pressure to standardise simply willing to pay extra may
advocacy to gain policy support (Smith, production and provide predictable require continued policy support
2006; von Oelreich and Milestad, 2017). outputs drove small farmers out of (Aschemann‑Witzel and Zielke, 2017). ■
FIGURE 17.5 Organic agricultural land coverage in Europe, 1985-2015
Million of hectares of land
16
14
12
10
Sources: FIBL and IFOAM (2016); FIBL (2019).

PART 3
TABLE 17.3 Policy approaches for addressing the negative socio-economic consequences of transitions
for workers, regions and firms
Compensation (defensive, reactive) Structural reorientation (active)
Workers Compensation for losses, e.g. redundancy payments, Skill upgrading and retraining programmes,
early retirement benefits financial assistance to relocate, wage subsidies,
assistance in finding new jobs
Regions, communities Compensation for losses (e.g. increased transfer of Regional assistance for economic diversification,
resources to local policymakers or regions), relocating e.g. direct investments in public goods (e.g.
public agencies to particular regions infrastructure), regional innovation policies,
subsidies or tax incentives to new businesses in
growth sectors, technical assistance
Firms Compensation for lost asset values or ‘grandfathering’ Grants or in-kind assistance to (1) upgrade
of existing assets, state subsidy of company liabilities existing technologies or practices, (2) stimulate
(e.g. pension or site remediation liabilities) reorientation towards new technologies and
markets
Source: Adapted from Spencer et al. (2018).
or regulations, removal of implicit or the local economy and are closely tied and technological skills are at the heart
explicit subsidies, and targeted financial to the local culture and identity. The of building such resilience.’ The most
incentives, which make a technology less historical decline of the old industrial recent update of the EU Emissions
attractive (Kivimaa and Kern, 2016). For regions, dependent on coal, steel or Trading System specifies that revenues
example, the European Commission’s bulk chemicals (e.g. Lorraine in France, from auctioning allowances and from a
2009 phase-out of incandescent Limburg in Belgium and the Midlands in new Modernisation Fund should be used
light‑bulbs accelerated the transition the United Kingdom), disrupted entire to support a just transition, for example
towards compact fluorescent lights (CFLs) communities, creating unemployment through retraining and supporting new
and light emitting diodes (LEDs). In 2015, and other social problems (Baeten et employment opportunities.
Finland, the Netherlands and the United al., 1999; Campbell and Coenen, 2017).
Kingdom decided to phase out coal use Coal and lignite extraction and support Governments can alleviate negative
and in 2017 joined 16 other countries in services still account for more than consequences through compensation
creating the Powering Past Coal Alliance. 5 % of employment in the Polish part measures or actions aimed at
Bans on sales of internal combustion of Silesia (EC, 2018g). Rural economies reorientation, innovation and developing
engine vehicles have been announced may likewise be strongly intertwined skills, as outlined in Table 17.3. The
for 2025 (Norway), for 2030 (Ireland, with established systems of agricultural relatively successful reorientation of
the Netherlands, Austria), and for 2040 production (Chapter 13). the German Ruhr region in the 1980s
(France, United Kingdom) (CCC, 2018). and 1990s involved both kinds of
And the EU’s Energy Union calls for the Such concerns are increasingly reflected policies (Box 17.6).
removal of all environmentally harmful in policymaking. For example, the Paris
subsidies (EC, 2015b). Agreement includes a call for a ‘just EU cohesion policy has already
transition of the workforce and the moved from a focus on social welfare
Governments have an essential role in creation of decent work and quality (transferring funds to less developed
supporting the ‘losers’ from transition jobs’. The renewed EU industrial policy regions) to more active, restructuring
processes and addressing inequities. strategy (EC, 2017c) likewise emphasises approaches. For example, the EU’s
While the ‘creative destruction’ that ‘The benefits of industrial flagship regional innovation approach
associated with structural economic transformation need to be widely spread ‘smart specialisation’ is increasingly
change always creates hardship for and those who lose out must be able to supporting regions in industrial
those in declining sectors, the impacts find opportunities and support to adapt. transition, which can face particular
can be particularly acute in regions Lifelong learning, equal opportunities challenges in accessing regional
where particular sectors dominate and fair access to education, training support mechanisms (EC, 2017b).

PART 3
The European Commission has 17.4.1

BOX 17.6 established a smart specialisation Leveraging the potential of cities
Restructuring the German Ruhr pilot to help regions in acute crisis and city networks
coal region
or falling into decline to transform
and diversify into new, sustainable Almost three quarters of the EU’s
C oal, steel and related industries in

the Ruhr region, which employed
more than half a million people, faced
economic sectors. It also supports
coal regions in transition, and it has
established thematic platforms on
population live in cities, meaning that
much of the production-consumption
dynamics in European society also
economic decline in the 1970s and industrial modernisation, energy and resides there. The density of urban
1980s because of cheaper imports. agri-food, enabling policymakers, populations also creates opportunities
Initial efforts aimed to improve researchers, business and civil society for resource-efficient ways of living and
competitiveness (e.g. subsidies, mergers) to pool experience. means that sustainability initiatives can
but, when this proved insufficient, have considerable impact. The United
controlled mine and plant closures Nations affirms the role of cities with
provided compensation payments, early 17.4 its New Urban Agenda and through
retirement packages and wage subsidies. Key enablers of change: cities, SDG 11 — ‘Make cities inclusive, safe,
By the mid-1980s, the region was also finance and knowledge resilient and sustainable’.
engaged in a proactive industrial policy,
aiming to stimulate ‘sunrise technologies’ Three cross-cutting themes stand out In Europe, the EU’s 2016 Pact of
such as environmental technologies as having particular importance in Amsterdam (establishing the EU urban
(e.g. energy efficiency, renewable energy, enabling change: agenda) arguably marked the start of ‘a
recycling and waste combustion), which new role-redefining phase for cities: one
could build on the region’s existing • Cities are crucial for transitions. in which cities are no longer only the
engineering capabilities. Regional They are hubs of creativity, object of EU policymaking, but now also
diversification succeeded in making the innovation and learning, with the become part of policymaking itself. Since
Ruhr a key centre for environmental capacity to effect systemic change then, cities got a ‘seat at the table’ of EU
industry, technology and research. It also at local scales and to share ideas governance.’ (Potjer and Hajer, 2017).
focused on its ‘industrial culture’, turning through city networks. Urban areas
former mines and steel factories into also face particular vulnerabilities Transformative adaptation is particularly
tourist destinations. that necessitate transformative urgent in cities. This is due to both
adaptation. their physical characteristics (e.g. the
In contrast to the traditional top-down heightened impacts of heat waves
industrial policy, the reorientation • Finance has a key role in either and flooding) and their concentration
strategy was implemented in impeding or enabling sustainability of population and economic/cultural
partnership with municipalities, transitions. Today it tends to do more assets, which often intensifies economic
universities and private actors. of the former. As the United Nations losses and vulnerabilities, especially for
Although policymakers were important Environment Programme (UNEP, those residents with low incomes or
for providing strategic direction, quality 2018) notes, ‘Clearly, some capital is poor health. The dependence of cities
control and funding, their role was also flowing to the new economy that we on their hinterlands and wider areas for
to facilitate ‘dialogue and collaboration need. But far more is continuing to food, water, energy and other essential
between stakeholders that led to the support the old economy.’ supplies means that they are vulnerable
inception of ‘regional development to climate-related impacts both within
coalitions’, i.e. bottom-up co-operation • Knowledge is essential for the city borders and beyond.
between different actors in a local or understanding challenges and
regional setting based on a socially designing responses. The EU has
broad mobilisation and participation’ developed an unrivalled knowledge Supporting urban innovation
(Campbell and Coenen, 2017). ■ system to support the design and
implementation of established Cities also provide good settings for
environmental policies, but the engaging citizens, businesses and
emergence of systemic and local governments in innovating and
transformative policy frameworks co‑creating knowledge and in enabling
creates the need for new knowledge experimentation and learning. For
and competencies. example, local authorities can trial

PART 3
solutions on a relatively small scale promote ‘stakeholder partnerships to

before rolling them out more widely, maximise the learning and economies
or they can experiment with different of scale that arise from a focused,
options in various districts (Heiskanen concentrated approach’ (Climate
and Matchoss, 2018). Cities can support KIC, 2015). Some large cities are actively
social innovation and grassroots Public policies are essential reconfiguring local transport systems
initiatives by providing institutional to offset inequities and (tram, bus, cycling, car sharing), district
support and resources (e.g. facilitation, heating or housing, or developing
facilitate structural change.
access to unused urban space). experimental neighbourhoods and
Stakeholder engagement is often easy urban living labs. Pioneering cities
to achieve because of the proximity are also setting new targets that
of public authorities, businesses sometimes exceed national targets.
and users. For instance, deploying at least 40 % by 2030 and increasing Table 17.4 shows European city targets
modern tramways in French cities resilience to climate change. for renewable energy. Similar urban
involved stakeholder consultations and targets have been set for heat supply
learning processes, leading to ways of (e.g. renewable heat, district heating or
handling grievances about disruptions Transitions at city scale solar thermal heating) and transport
during construction (e.g. through (e.g. bans on petrol and diesel cars in
compensation, dialogue, re-routing) Cities themselves also represent distinct Athens, Madrid or Paris) (IRENA, 2018).
(Turnheim and Geels, 2019). systems that can be transformed.
Urban authorities have strategic agency, At the same time, other cities, towns and
European and national authorities dedicated budgets and responsibilities regions are trailing behind for a variety
can reinforce urban experimentation for providing local services such as of reasons. Larger cities tend to benefit
by providing additional resources, water and sanitation, mobility, energy from scale and special institutional and
increasing local powers, and developing and waste disposal, particularly in regulatory powers compared with smaller
criteria and standards for urban countries benefitting from political cities. Some may be reluctant to promote
sustainability. Maximising the impact decentralisation (e.g. Sweden) or transitions because of the economic
of individual initiatives requires federalism with municipal autonomy importance of local (polluting) industries,
sequences of urban projects to build (e.g. Germany) (Ehnert et al., while others may face challenges in
on each other’s experience. This can 2018). These characteristics create accessing city networks (e.g. because
involve intra-city learning — sharing opportunities to stimulate transitions of language barriers). Perhaps most
knowledge among initiatives within in close interaction with citizens and fundamentally, urban authorities may
a city or region, for example through other actors. lack the competency, resources or
workshops or working groups. It can responsibility to pursue transformational
also take the form of inter-city learning, Cities such as Birmingham, Castellón, approaches. European and national
with flows of knowledge between Frankfurt, Valencia and Wrocław have policymakers can help address these
cities mediated by national, regional begun to implement comprehensive disparities by offering financial, technical
or global networks (e.g. Box 17.7). For urban transition programmes that and administrative support, for example
example, the C40 Climate Leadership through the EU’s URBACT programme.
Group is a network of global megacities
that increasingly sees itself as a key
global actor on climate change rather 17.4.2
75 %
than just a collection of pilot projects. Financing innovation and investment
The International Council for Local
Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Ensuring that public and private
increasingly engages with systemic investments support sustainability goals
local sustainability transformations of Europeans live in cities — is arguably the single most important
(ICLEI, 2015). And the Global Covenant of meaning that much of the challenge. Barriers exist at each stage of
Mayors for Energy and Climate Change innovation — from invention through to
facilitates monitoring and sharing of best
production-consumption broad diffusion of technologies, practices
practices among more than 7 000 cities dynamics in European society and business models. In the earliest
worldwide (primarily European) that also reside there. stages, the public good characteristics
commit to reducing CO2 emissions by of basic research and uncertainty about

PART 3
BOX 17.7 HINKU: towards carbon-neutral municipalities
I n Finland, municipalities are

collaborating to curb their greenhouse
gas emissions beyond the requirements
HINKU municipalities have already
reduced greenhouse gas emissions by
30 %, while creating jobs and improving
Communication and sharing information
and ideas through a common
platform are central to the HINKU
of EU targets and schedules. The energy self‑sufficiency. Finland’s process. A network for frontrunners
project ‘HINKU: towards carbon-neutral climate and energy legislation, based — the HINKU forum — helps create
municipalities’ brings together local on international and EU laws, has innovative solutions and distribute
authorities, businesses, experts and provided a key driver for the HINKU data, experiences and good practices
citizens to find cost-effective ways of process. The programme also enjoys to other localities and stakeholders.
reducing emissions, especially in the support from across the political Experimentation in municipalities is
transport, housing and food sectors. spectrum and at different levels of helping to identify ways of engaging
By 2030, the participants hope to have government. At the national level, the residents and overcoming barriers
reduced emissions by 80 % compared Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) to the uptake of new technologies.
with 2007 levels. coordinates and facilitates the HINKU For example, joint procurement of
process, for example by calculating solar panels enables municipalities
HINKU started in 2008 as a network of annual greenhouse gas emission and households to combine their
five small municipalities with 36 000 inventories for each HINKU municipality, purchasing power and secure lower
inhabitants. By 2018, it had expanded supporting public relations and helping costs. First carried out in 2014, joint
to 42 municipalities totalling more municipalities to access external procurement is now expanding
than 750 000. The results are positive. research funding. in Finland. ■
TABLE 17.4 Selected European city-wide renewable energy targets
Target Year City (country)
100 % renewable energy in total energy mix 2029 Sønderborg (DK)
2030 Frederikshavn (DK), Malmö (SE), Växjö (SE)
2040 The Hague (NL)
2050 Copenhagen (DK), Frankfurt (DE), Hamburg (DE)
100 % renewable energy in electricity mix 2020 Skellefteå (SE)
2025 Munich (DE)
2030 Osnabrück (DE)
2035 Groningen (NL)
Source: IRENA (2018).

PART 3
returns can deter private firms from Beyond research, there are concerns
investing in R&D, implying an important about the availability of finance in
role for public spending. As innovations Europe to support progress towards
move towards commercialisation they commercialisation and bridge the
may struggle to cross the ‘valley of ‘valley of death’. A variety of private
death’ — the funding gap that arises as Achieving sustainability sources of finance can support the
public grants decline, the need for private commercialisation of innovations,
transitions will require much
finance increases, and commercial returns including venture capital, business
remain low. Finally, the sheer scale of more ambitious public angels (wealthy entrepreneurs or
financial resources needed to effect broad investment in innovation. philanthropists), crowdfunding and
diffusion of innovations — in particular, blockchain funding. Yet, it is doubtful
the costs of necessary investments in that these sources alone will ensure
infrastructure (e.g. housing retrofits, the large-scale, long-term and targeted
electricity grids, transport systems) — are investments needed to address the
especially daunting. At each stage, market urgent sustainability challenges facing
failures (e.g. environmental externalities) Europe today (EEA, 2019). This implies a
and policy failures (e.g. erratic shifts in Similar trends are apparent in other key role for governments in stimulating,
incentive structures) deter investment in important sustainability-related orienting and complementing private
sustainability innovations and perpetuate domains. Government spending on investments (Saha and Muro, 2017;
the flow of financial resources towards R&D in the agriculture, environment Sopher, 2017).
unsustainable modes of production and and transport areas has increased
consumption. significantly since the early 2000s Such a role is not without controversy,
in EU countries, with transport in as it runs counter to prevailing
Like other regions, Europe faces particular receiving a boost after the reasoning, which promotes markets
problems in each of these areas. In the financial crisis. However, investment as the primary engine of innovation
research domain, in its Europe 2020 has declined in all three areas during and recommends that public policy
strategy (EC, 2010) the EU committed recent years (Eurostat, 2019; OECD, focus on correcting market failures.
to raise R&D spending to 3 % of GDP by 2019), potentially weakening European Yet, ambitious public investments
2020. Despite improving from 1.76 % competitiveness and opportunities for played foundational roles in many of
since 2008, total R&D investment a broad transition. the most transformative innovations
stood well below the target at 2.03 % during the 20th century (Auerswald and
in 2016. This was substantially below At the same time, there appears to Branscomb, 2003; Mazzucato, 2015).
investment in the United States (2.79 %), be growing recognition of the need Achieving sustainability transitions is
Japan (3.29 %) and South Korea (4.23 %). for much greater public investment likely to require even greater levels of
In 2015, China also surpassed the EU’s in sustainability-oriented R&D. For ambition, engagement and risk-taking
investment in R&D (Eurostat, 2018). example, the EU and 24 countries from the state, accompanied by a
(including some EU Member States), willingness to accept failures alongside
R&D investments in sustainability‑related which together account for 80 % of successes (Mazzucato and Perez, 2015).
domains have fluctuated. Energy R&D global investment in clean energy R&D,
more than doubled between 2001 have pledged to double that spending
and 2010 (Figure 17.6), benefiting to approximately USD 30 billion Financing diffusion
significantly from the stimulus package annually by 2021 as part of the Mission and fixed capital formation
expenditure in 2009, which aimed to Innovation initiative. This increase is
prevent economic collapse after the intended to accelerate significantly the Broader diffusion of innovations and
financial crisis (Grubb et al., 2014). availability of affordable clean energy development of related infrastructure
Spending has also diversified (Mission Innovation, 2018). There is will require huge investments. For
significantly, shifting from a heavy a strong case for extending this level example, the United Nations Conference
(and arguably wasteful) focus on of ambition beyond a narrow focus on Trade and Development (UNCTAD,
nuclear energy in the 1980s towards a on clean energy technologies towards 2014) estimates that achieving the
much broader portfolio of low‑carbon supporting diverse forms of innovation SDGs will require global investments
technologies. Overall, however, spending in other domains such as sustainable of USD 5-7 trillion annually. Simply
has not recovered to its peak in the food and mobility and non-toxic meeting Europe’s 2030 climate change
1980s, and since 2010 it has declined. chemicals. targets will require additional funding

PART 3
FIGURE 17.6 Trends in energy R&D spending in Europe by technology (based on IEA estimates)
Million USD (2017 prices, PPP)
9 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Nuclear Unallocated Hydrogen and fuel cells Other power and storage Other cross‑cutting
Renewables Energy efficiency Fossil fuels (CCS) Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas)
Note: CCS, carbon capture and storage; PPP, purchasing power parity.
Source: IEA (2018c).
of EUR 180 billion annually (EC, 2018e). companies and pension funds are the
Diffusion of clean These vast sums appear broadly main source of external finance for the
attainable when seen in the context European economy and … could provide
technologies and the
of total investment (gross capital the critical mass of investments needed
transformation of whole formation) in the global economy to close the gap for the transition to a
production‑consumption (USD 20.0 trillion in 2017) and in Europe more sustainable economy’ (EC, 2018f).
systems will require huge (USD 3.5 trillion) (World Bank, 2018). But At present, however, financial resources
they will evidently entail a significant primarily consolidate established modes
investments.
reorientation of public and private of production and consumption. For
spending across society. example, pension funds and insurance
companies allocate just 1-2 % of their
Financing socio-technical transitions will assets to ‘green sectors’ compared with
necessarily draw on a diverse array of the 5-10 % distributed to ‘brown’ sectors,
interacting funding sources, including such as oil, gas and coal, and the 20‑25 %
institutional investors. As noted in the put into other high-carbon sectors, such
European Commission’s sustainable as metals, chemicals, transport and
finance action plan, ‘Banks, insurance automobiles (Rademaekers et al., 2017).

PART 3
Public authorities, households and end- signals are robust and stable. Sudden a global issuance of USD 3.4 billion
users (e.g. vehicle owners) also have shifts in policy represent an important in 2012 to USD 161 billion in 2017, in part
a central role in financing transitions, source of risk that can significantly because of the availability of secondary
reflecting the investments needed in undermine investor confidence. markets for investments. However,
demand-side sectors, notably buildings optimism about the rapid growth of
and transport. Rademaekers et al. (2017) Combining investment sources through green bonds needs to be tempered.
estimate, for example, that achieving ‘blended finance’ mechanisms can First, increased transparency is needed
the EU’s 2030 climate and energy targets also increase financial flows (OECD, to ensure that they are not used for
will require more than EUR 1 trillion of 2018b). For example, investments by ‘greenwashing’ (Aldersgate Group,
investments in transport and buildings in development banks or government 2018). Second, despite rapid growth,
the period 2021-2030 compared with less agencies that cover the high-risk tranches green bonds account for less than 1 %
than EUR 80 billion for power generation of investments can stimulate private of the global bond market. The flow of
and the electricity grid. investment. This is the logic behind investment into fossil fuel exploitation
the EU’s European Fund for Strategic continues to dwarf global investments
Collectively, these different public Investments, which aims to catalyse in renewables (OECD, 2018a).
and private actors arguably have the investment of at least EUR 0.5 trillion,
resources to finance transitions, yet a with 40 % targeting innovation and Additional measures could seek to
variety of barriers and market failures infrastructure projects that contribute reformulate institutional rules and
deter such investments. For example, to climate action. formal expectations of financial actors.
many sustainability innovations have For instance, pursuant to its action plan
unattractive risk/return profiles. Another important barrier to investment on financing sustainable growth, the
Concerns about stranded assets may by banks and institutional investors is a European Commission plans to develop
encourage investors to lobby against reported shortage of high-quality and a unified classification system (to better
policies promoting systemic change. sizeable projects that promise stable define what counts as sustainable
Public investments are constrained by investment returns (Rademaekers et al., finance); develop standards and labels
weak economic growth and a continued 2017). Energy efficiency investments, for for sustainable financial products
focus on fiscal consolidation. Many example, are often small and distributed (including green bonds); better integrate
end‑users are prevented from investing across numerous households and sustainability in ratings and research
in cost‑saving efficiency improvements businesses, implying high transaction by credit-rating agencies; change the
by often daunting upfront costs. costs. Responding to this challenge is fiduciary duties of institutional investors
likely to involve developing technical and and asset managers, so that they more
Public policy tools can help create knowledge capacity — for example at systematically consider sustainability
markets for sustainability innovations city level — to help ensure a steady flow factors and risks in investment processes;
by clearly signalling the intended of good-quality projects (OECD, 2018a). strengthen disclosure responsibilities
development pathways, thereby reducing Another useful approach involves and accounting rules, so that companies
risks and stimulating investment. For aggregating small projects into a larger are required to inform investors about
example, the EU is broadly on track pool to attract investment, for example sustainability performance and risks;
to achieve its target of allocating 20 % by securitising green mortgages used and assess the possible negative impact
of its budget to climate action under to finance residential retrofits. As of the Basel III regulatory framework
the Multiannual Financial Framework households will need to provide a on European bank lending, investment
2014-2020. The European Commission substantial proportion of the investment and other activities, which are critical for
proposes to increase this to 25 % in to achieve Europe’s climate targets, sustainable finance.
the 2021-2027 time frame (EC, 2018c). it will be particularly important to find
Furthermore, public procurement of ways to help them meet these costs
goods and services amounts to 16 % of (e.g. Box 17.8). Elaborating government
GDP in the EU (EC, 2017e), implying that guidelines on green securitisation could
it can also provide a major stimulus for support the development of this market
innovation and diffusion. Other tools (Aldersgate Group, 2018). By signalling intended
include taxes and subsidies, feed-in
development pathways,
tariffs, tradable permits and obligations Green bonds provide another mechanism
to use energy from renewable sources. to increase large-scale institutional public policies can reduce
For such interventions to be effective, investments. The green bond market risks and stimulate investment.
however, it is essential that the policy has expanded very rapidly, rising from

PART 3
BOX 17.8 Energiesprong
S hifting to energy-efficient buildings

is a huge challenge. The EU requires
all new houses to be ‘zero energy’
in perspective. Dutch households spend
about EUR 13 billion on energy each
year. If, instead, they were to use the
as a whole also stand to gain from
these big investments, and households
benefit from better insulated homes,
by 2021, meaning that they produce as same money to repay a long-term loan, higher property values and more
much energy as they use on heating, then it would effectively free up about spending power once loans are repaid.
lighting, and so on. However, new EUR 225 million today to invest in the
houses represent only a tiny proportion housing stock, which is equivalent to Experimentation and learning
of the continent’s total housing stock. between EUR 30 000 and EUR 40 000 have played an important role in
As about 40 % of Europe’s CO2 emissions per household. upscaling the programme. A focus
come from heating and lighting in on reducing costs in the initial phase
buildings, retrofitting existing buildings Energiesprong succeeds by resulted in a 30 % improvement in
is crucial for climate change mitigation. coordinating relevant sectors and the price‑performance ratio, greatly
Unfortunately, this requires a substantial identifying ‘win-win’ solutions. Banks improving the initiative’s financial
investment from homeowners. were persuaded to finance energy viability. Reducing the renovation time to
refurbishments because Energiesprong 1 week per dwelling likewise made the
Launched in 2010, the Dutch initiative secured a 30-year energy performance process more appealing to homeowners.
Energiesprong — later expanded warranty on refurbished homes As the programme extends into other
to France, the United Kingdom, and brokered a deal to refurbish countries, economies of scale and
Germany and North America — tackles 111 000 housing association properties. continued innovation should drive
this financial obstacle with a clever shift The building sector and the economy further improvements in performance.■
Investing in natural capital local investment in education and As private actors often have weak
improved livelihoods. Moreover, the incentives to invest, there is often
Investments in green infrastructure value of these benefits is, on average, a significant role for the public
and nature-based solutions enhance 10 times the cost. sector (UN, 2018; Figure 17.7),
ecological resilience and society’s either as the sole source of finance
capacity to transform and adapt, often Nevertheless such investments or in motivating private spending
delivering benefits that far exceed their often face major barriers. These (e.g. through co‑financing or planning
costs. In its landmark study on land include a lack of awareness about requirements). The European
degradation, the Intergovernmental potential benefits, limited design Investment Bank’s Natural Capital
Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and implementation capacities, and Financing Facility exemplifies this
and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, 2018) strong vested interests in developing approach, providing funding to
found that timely action to avoid, grey infrastructure. Whereas grey projects that promote conservation,
reduce and reverse land degradation is infrastructure investments often restoration, management and
essential for achieving the majority of deliver immediate returns, benefits enhancement of natural capital,
the SDGs and would deliver co-benefits from green solutions can take including ecosystem‑based solutions
for nearly all of them. In addition to 10-15 years to realise. Perhaps (EIB, 2019).
enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem most importantly, the benefits of
services, the benefits of restoration investments in nature often have Bottom-up innovations in finance
include increased employment, public good characteristics, meaning provide another potential source of
increased business spending, that they accrue to society generally funding for green infrastructure and
improved gender equity, increased rather than to private actors. nature-based solutions (Toxopeus

PART 3
FIGURE 17.7 The continuum of public and private finance in achieving the SDGs
Financing source Ecosystems Water and Energy Telecom

sanitation
Public/private
balance
Enabling environment Policy, regulatory and institutional frameworks

for finance Technological and systemic issues
Source: UN (2018).
and Polzin, 2017). For example, regulations and economic instruments but it is increasingly clear that they are
crowdfunding provides a mechanism underpinned the widespread use of not sufficient.
for spreading the costs of investments rational analytical approaches, such as
across a large group of people, which modelling, grounded in assumptions Integrated assessment modelling,
corresponds well with the dispersed of mainstream economics about for example, provides many valuable
benefits arising from environmental how people respond to incentives, insights — helping to set agendas and
public goods (see also Box 17.9). individually and collectively. These long-term targets; identify lowest cost
analytical approaches remain essential, pathways and optimal configurations
of technologies; communicate urgency
17.4.3 and costs of delay; and map out
Knowledge and skills to support trade-offs and distributional impacts
transformative policy associated with systemic change
(van Vuuren and Hof, 2018). Like all
The knowledge systems that analytical perspectives, however, it
developed to support environmental has important limitations and blind
governance during the 20th spots, which can lead to it providing
century were well adapted to the misleading guidance if used in isolation.
challenges and thinking of that
Investing in natural capital In particular, it neglects many of
time. Confidence in the capacities often delivers benefits the fundamental characteristics of
of governments to plan and that far exceed costs. transitions, such as the role of shocks,
steer societal development using non-linearities, resistance, radical

PART 3
innovation, actors and institutions,

BOX 17.9 social practices and behavioural shifts.
Crowdfunding bottom-up initiatives
Enabling sustainability
in Ghent
The inherently uncertain, exploratory
transitions will require
and open-ended character of a transformation
T o moderate climate change impacts,

Ghent is seeking to create more
green areas in the city. In keeping with
transitions creates the need for a much
broader range of knowledge to support
governance. This includes a need for
of the knowledge system
supporting governance.
the city’s reputation for being social much better understanding about
and creative, local authorities are complex societal systems, including the
seeking to actively engage citizens in interactions, lock-ins and feedbacks that and with diverse actors across society,
developing bottom-up initiatives. Since influence sustainability outcomes, social making only a limited contribution to
many of these small-scale projects face acceptance and political feasibility. policy and governance. As stated in
difficulties securing finance, Ghent has Identifying the opportunities and risks the Amsterdam Declaration on global
developed a crowdfunding platform associated with systemic change also change (IGBP et al., 2001), ‘A new
that allows citizens to propose and requires better information about system of global environmental science
finance their ideas for the city. Two the impacts of drivers of change and is required. ... It will draw strongly on
projects addressing climate adaptation cross‑system interactions. the existing and expanding disciplinary
have been successfully realised with base of global change science; integrate
the support of the crowdfunding. Ecosystem-based management requires across disciplines, environment and
gent platform. Both promote creating accounting systems that monitor development issues and the natural
green spaces and food production in and assess the cumulative impacts of and social sciences; collaborate across
the city, one by creating mini-gardens environmental pressures from multiple national boundaries on the basis of
on balconies in social housing and the sectors. This can support assessment of shared and secure infrastructure.’
other by transforming stone facades the economic and social risks and costs
into vertical gardens. In addition that arise from continued degradation Supporting sustainability transitions
to providing food, these initiatives of ecosystems. The globalised character will therefore require actions such as
support biodiversity, mitigate extreme of modern production‑consumption pluralising evaluations — combining
temperatures and reduce greenhouse systems implies a need for a multiple analytical approaches and
gas emissions. The projects are small better understanding of Europe’s engaging with different research
compared with global climate change environmental and social footprint communities; engaging with societal
challenges. However, the crowdfunding to help inform the governance concerns — recognising different
platform has proved to be an excellent of transitions. viewpoints and preferences through
instrument for realising small drops interactions with diverse social
of climate mitigation and adaptation The importance of innovation for actors and stakeholders; attending
measures that have the opportunity to transitions necessitates a knowledge to real-world complexities — tracking
generate larger ripple effects. ■ system that enables society to learn developments in existing systems
from successes and failures, replicate and abstracting lessons from (local)
and upscale promising initiatives, initiatives; and co‑creating knowledge
identify unexpected consequences, — ensuring that the knowledge is
and avoid lock-ins to unsustainable relevant, actionable and understandable
innovation pathways. Identifying goals by engaging decision‑makers and
and pathways requires information other stakeholders in knowledge
about the interests and preferences of co‑production. The last point especially
different groups and their visions for the is much easier said than done.
future. And the viability and credibility
of polycentric governance hinges on Developing and using new forms
the presence of robust monitoring and of knowledge often requires that
reporting systems that meet user needs. policymakers and other actors
have access to relevant concepts,
To the extent that it is currently competencies and institutional
available, knowledge about these mechanisms. These include, for
themes resides in multiple disciplines example, the need to develop

PART 3
an understanding of system and have a powerful influence on both state

transitions concepts; the need to and non-state actors. For example, many
Developing shared visions
develop skills in participatory foresight EU Member States have responded to
techniques that enable different actors
for long-term development the EU circular economy strategy by
to explore possible futures; the need can inspire and guide action voluntarily preparing national circular
for stakeholder engagement skills and at different scales economy plans (see Chapter 9). At the
platforms that enable policymakers to sub-national level, regional governments
of governance.
engage with business, NGOs, citizens, and cities are committing to reductions
researchers and others; and the need in greenhouse gas emissions that often
for a governance culture that promotes exceed national targets (Averchenkova
experimentation and acknowledges the governance to manage nature-society et al., 2017; see also Chapter 7). In the
need to accept and learn from failures. interactions within environmental United States, withdrawal from the Paris
limits. Agreement has prompted more than
More broadly, there is a need to create 2 000 American businesses, 280 cities
networks that can tap into, organise and counties, and 340 colleges and
and communicate the knowledge 17.5.1 universities to announce that they are
dispersed across society. Intermediary Setting the direction for transitions still in the Agreement and determined to
organisations that bridge between achieve the United States’ commitment
science, policy and society will have Unlike most past transformations of on emissions (Watts, 2017).
an important role. Similarly, the production-consumption systems,
emergence of ‘platforms of action’ sustainability transitions are purposeful Visions and associated pathways are
(e.g. under the Paris Agreement and and directional. Although the future of inherently normative, as they involve
the EU’s circular economy action plan) society cannot be known in advance, choices, trade-offs and prioritisation of
provide a novel means of collating and the desired outcomes are reasonably certain goals and values over others.
sharing practice‑based evidence among clearly defined — most prominently Societal actors are likely to have very
non-state and public actors. Making in the SDGs but also in the growing different perspectives on how to move
the most of their potential will require body of long‑term visions and targets forwards, even if they agree on the
developing new methods to categorise in instruments such as the Paris overarching sustainability goals. This
and use this kind of knowledge Agreement and the EU’s long-term underlines the need to develop visions
(Steward, 2018). framework policies addressing themes through collaborative processes that
such as climate, energy, mobility and involve state, business and civil society
biodiversity. actors. Achieving this is often difficult
17.5 because stakeholders vary greatly in
Governance of innovation, Developing ambitious macro-level their priorities, resources, values and
innovations in governance visions and goals is an important discourses.
first step in guiding transitions in
In combining state actions across desirable directions. Visions can help in Visioning and other foresight
multiple policy domains with bottom‑up identifying possible alternative ways to approaches can help actors to explore
innovation and experimentation, meet social needs, tackle the problems alternative futures systematically
sustainability transitions involve that need to be solved and define the and collectively. As noted in the EU’s
difficult governance challenges. How, roles of different actors. Perhaps most better regulation toolbox (EC, 2018a),
for example, can such complex, importantly, they provide a shared ‘Foresight and other forward‑looking
dispersed and emergent processes be narrative for actors across society, tools complement quantitative
steered towards multiple, long-term extending beyond electoral cycles and modelling with a system thinking and
sustainability goals? How can societies short-term objectives. This can help long-term approach. … They facilitate
achieve coherence across policy in coordinating activities and steering thinking out-of-the-box. The objective
domains and levels of governance? innovation, learning processes and is to engage with different possible
How can the inevitable risks and investments (Smith et al., 2005; Hekkert futures (e.g. providing alternative
uncertainties associated with systemic et al., 2007). futures) and challenge present
change be managed? This section assumptions thereby broadening the
explores these questions. It concludes In an increasingly complex and policy horizon.’ Such approaches are
with reflections on how regions can fragmented governance context, such not only about cognitive outcomes
combine different approaches to visions and associated narratives can (based on expert judgements), but also

PART 3
about using creative and participatory FIGURE 17.8 Backcasting analysis

processes to foster communication,
learning, agreement and commitment. Sustainable
Visions count for little if they are not term implicati

ort‑ on
translated into actions. It is therefore Sh s
important to involve political actors

(or those with political influence) in
developing them. There is also a need
Goals
to translate visions and goals into
concrete policies and projects, backed Tr
a
up by specific targets, implementing
ns
History
fo
agencies and monitoring frameworks.
rm
ative
Backcasting is often used to translate
future goals into a range of transition Challenge
action
pathways, which can then be used
to develop policy strategies and
programmes (Figure 17.8). Expected trend
Within Europe, the process of

translating visions into targets is well
advanced in some policy areas. For
Time
example, the EU’s 2011 Roadmap for
moving to a competitive low carbon Source: van Vuuren and Hof (2018).
economy in 2050 (EC, 2011) used
modelling and scenario analysis to map
out milestones and sectoral reductions
needed to achieve the EU’s 2050 target
of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
by 80-95 %. Subsequent frameworks common purpose, thereby stimulating 17.5.2
have elaborated much more detailed innovation and investments. As Coherence across policy domains
targets and measures to achieve the outlined by Mazzucato (2018), and levels of governance
long-term goal. targeted missions provide a means of
bridging between macro-level goals or Systemic changes necessarily link
Similarly, the EU’s circular economy challenges and micro-level projects and to a broad range of policy domains,
action plan (EC, 2015a) articulates a experimentation (Figure 17.9). extending well beyond environment and
vision and breaks it down into more sectoral policies, such as energy and
concrete sub-goals and focus areas Like broader visions, missions are agriculture, to embrace cross‑cutting
addressing topics such as plastics, waste intended to be motivational and foster areas such as innovation, competition,
and critical raw materials. In contrast, bottom-up activity, as well as creating a tax, industry, education and welfare
the food domain lacks an overarching frame for target setting and monitoring. (Figure 17.10). Actions in each of these
sustainability vision and long-term However, by shifting the focus from areas contribute to stimulating, orienting
goals, making it hard to develop policies broad challenges to more specific and and facilitating systemic change. In
and targets to support food system ambitious but achievable problems practice, however, the fact that policies
transitions. The SDGs and existing EU (e.g. achieving 100 carbon-neutral cities — at all levels of governance — are often
strategies can provide a foundation for in Europe by 2030) they provide a more developed in departmental silos with
engaging stakeholders and developing a specific focus for research, investment contrasting objectives and expertise
shared vision for the food system. and economic growth. In this way, they means that misalignments and conflicts
aim to promote collaboration between are inevitable (Section 16.6). This
Another mechanism for translating all actors in the innovation ecosystem, incoherence can slow down transition
broad visions into concrete actions including corporations and disruptive processes, creating contradictory
comes in the form of missions that start-ups, public institutions and users signals about the direction of travel and
convey a sense of urgency and (RISE, 2018). deterring investments (OECD, 2015).

PART 3
FIGURE 17.9 From challenges to missions At the EU level, the European

Commission has identified a variety
of barriers that hinder the emergence
Political agenda setting and diffusion of innovation, including
and civic engagement
product market regulation, competition
rules, market fragmentation, risk
aversion and access to seed and
GRAND
CHALLENGES start‑up capital (EC, 2016b, 2017d,
2018d). As a result, ‘Disruptive and
breakthrough innovations are still
too rare in Europe’ (EC, 2018d). More
MISSION MISSION Clear targeted missions
generally, existing policies and rules are
often geared towards established ways
of meeting needs and may actively
support them through subsidies or
Mission Mission
projects projects public procurement. As such, mapping
and reducing barriers — temporarily or
permanently — is an important step in
Mission Portfolio of projects and creating niches for innovation.
projects bottom‑up experimentation
Coordination can be further enhanced

by organisational innovations, such
as super-ministries that combine
Source: Mazzucato (2018). policy domains, political advisers
with cross‑departmental remits,
inter‑ministerial committees or
independent units (OECD, 2015), such
as a transitions unit in the prime
minister’s office. Many examples of
Actions to improve coherence are to transition processes. It is therefore such innovations exist in relation
therefore important. important to achieve effective multi‑level to climate and energy policy, and
and multi‑actor governance, with policy new initiatives are also emerging
At the EU level, measures to enhance actions at each level reinforcing each in some areas, for example Spain’s
coordination include the better other, exploiting opportunities and Circular Economy Inter‑ministerial
regulation agenda and the European overcoming barriers. Committee. There would be benefits
Semester process (EC, 2019a, in developing such mechanisms to
2019c). Both contribute to improved Misalignments can take a variety of address sustainability transitions,
environmental governance, for forms. At the broadest level, policymakers building on the experience of national
example through fitness checks of may be pursuing inherently inconsistent sustainable development committees
environmental legislation and the policy goals (Rogge and Reichardt, 2016; and ministries.
greening of the European Semester Kern et al., 2017). For example, policies
(EC, 2019b). that subsidise renewables to make them City networks represent another useful
more competitive may coexist with institutional mechanism to coordinate
While EU policies can provide an subsidies to fossil fuel-based industries actions across levels of governance.
important impetus for sustainability that aim to support employment. In other For example, the Eurocities network
transitions across Europe, transitions instances, incoherent instruments can specifically aims to reinforce the role
are reliant to a very large degree create barriers to change. In Finland, of local governments in multi-level
on policy decisions and activities at for example, operators of some new governance by helping enable cities to
Member State, regional or local levels. transport services found it extremely deliver on the EU’s strategic priorities.
These different governance levels vary difficult to get the necessary permits to As well as connecting cities directly
not only in their capacities but also in operate, as they could not be classified to EU-level policymaking, it provides
the barriers that they face, implying that as taxis or goods transport (Temmes a platform for knowledge sharing
they each contribute in different ways et al., 2014). among the local governments of more

PART 3
FIGURE 17.10 Policy mixes for sustainability transitions
Emergence Diffusion Reconfiguration
E.g. innovation policies: E.g. environmental, sectoral, E.g. welfare, education,

industrial, fiscal policies: employment, regional policies:
‑ Research, development
‑ Carbon pricing ‑ Phase‑out measures
and demonstration
‑ Strict regulation ‑ Compensating losers
‑ Promoting experiments
‑ Removing harmful subsidies - Offsetting inequities
‑ New entrant support
‑ Market creation ‑ Retraining
‑ Missions
‑ Adoption subsidies ‑ Regional assistance
‑ Network building
‑ Backing winners
Directionality: visions, pathways, long-term targets
Coordination: across policy areas and levels of governance
Source: Adapted from Geels (2006).
2015a, 2018b). As the European 17.5.3

Systemic changes link to Commission has noted in its reflection Avoiding potential harms in
paper on the 2030 sustainability agenda transition processes
a broad range of policies
(EC, 2019d), ‘If we are to succeed, we
including energy, agriculture, must pull in the same direction at all From a risk management perspective,
innovation, competition, levels. It is therefore of the utmost it is essential that societies promote
tax, industry, education importance that all actors in the EU innovations that contribute to
prioritise the sustainability transition. sustainability goals and constrain those
and welfare.
They must further develop the cross- that are harmful. In practice, however,
cutting policy agendas that have been the impacts of new technologies and
adopted at the EU level in recent years.’ ideas are very hard to anticipate because
they depend to a large degree on how
While developing more cross-cutting innovations are used and integrated
than 140 of Europe’s largest cities, frameworks would certainly be valuable, into ways of living and how they interact
accounting for 130 million citizens. it is important to stress that such with other complex systems and drivers
frameworks are likely to be misaligned. of change.
The EU’s strategic policies relating to As emphasised in Section 16.6, this
the circular economy, the low-carbon underlines the need for careful Novel chemicals, for example, can
economy and the bioeconomy represent assessment of synergies and trade- present direct threats to human
key frameworks for coordinating the offs, including those resulting from and environmental health, and the
diverse actions needed to achieve shared reliance on a limited natural accumulation and interaction of
economic transformation (EC, 2011, resource base. such substances in the environment

PART 3
or within organisms can amplify the precautionary principle as a source

uncertainties. Similarly, the interplay Promoting diversity of guidance in situations in which risk
of innovations and social responses assessment tools are inadequate. Rather
in innovation is vital
may produce counter-productive than automatically requiring bans on
outcomes, for example if car-sharing
to increase creativity, mitigate potentially harmful innovation, it opens
schemes cause people to cycle or lock-ins, hedge against up a range of response strategies
walk less (Rademaekers et al., 2018). surprises and enable learning. centred on acknowledging ignorance
Interdependencies between systems can and uncertainty. These include the
produce unexpected harms, such as the need to need to ‘consider alternatives,
deforestation and food price increases explore uncertainties, maximise learning
that accompanied expanded biofuel and promote adaptability in careful,
production in the early 2000s. Structural reversible, step-by-step implementation’
economic change is sure to create techniques include horizon scanning (Stirling, 2015).
winners and losers, potentially affecting to identify and interpret weak signals
whole regions. of potentially important developments Promoting diversity in innovation
(Box 17.10); developing scenarios for is essential because it nurtures
These realities create difficult possible future changes in systems as creativity, mitigates lock-ins, hedges
dilemmas. In many cases, the social a means of identifying potential risks against surprises, enables learning
and environmental consequences of or windows or opportunity; modelling and increases tolerance of failure of
innovations cannot be anticipated; by of pathways to explore impacts and individual innovations. It provides the
the time they do become apparent, trade‑offs, or using agent-based or foundation for shifting to alternative
widespread diffusion and associated system dynamics models to explore innovation pathways in the event of
lock-ins may make the innovation potential changes in systems (EEA, 2018). surprises or unexpected consequences.
very difficult to remove (Collingridge, But achieving this goal requires
1980). Yet, Europe cannot afford not Although potential hazards must be that diversity be complemented
to innovate. Inaction greatly increases identified as early and accurately as with real-world pilots and trialling,
environmental risks and has severe possible, the non-linear and open-ended monitoring and evaluation, learning
human and financial consequences. nature of systemic change (as well as and communication.
the pace and scale of technological
Research and practice point to a innovation) mean that assessing These themes come together in
variety of strategies for responding to and mitigating all risks in advance is adaptive governance approaches such
these dilemmas. First, governments impossible. Societies do not know what as ‘transitions management’, which
and other actors can certainly do innovations will emerge, how they will addresses change in socio-technical
better at exploring and identifying influence and co-evolve with social systems such as energy and mobility, and
potential risks ex ante, building on practices, and what environmental ‘adaptive management’, which focuses
existing impact assessment approaches and social impacts will emerge. These on nature-society interactions. Both
and employing a variety of tools are ‘unknown unknowns’ — issues of acknowledge the risks and uncertainties
and analytical approaches. Such fundamental uncertainty, rather than inherent in transforming complex systems
approaches must go well beyond risks that can be assessed and balanced. and seek to navigate these processes
simple forecasting exercises, based on In such situations, the precautionary through iterative cycles of vision setting,
historical data. Instead, the International principle provides a useful tool to experimentation, monitoring and
Risk Governance Council (IRGC, 2018) support decision-making. evaluation. They put particular emphasis
recommends combining foresight on the importance of social learning
approaches (which employ participatory The precautionary principle stipulates and stakeholder participation, reflecting
approaches to map out possible futures, that, where there are threats of the uncertain and pluralistic nature of
risks and opportunities) with ‘broadsight’ serious or irreversible damage, lack knowledge (Foxon et al., 2008).
approaches that explore outcomes in of full scientific certainty shall not
horizontally interconnected systems. be used as a reason for postponing Applying a precautionary approach
cost-effective measures to prevent ultimately raises questions about the
The ‘resource nexus’ perspective environmental degradation. Although purpose and direction of innovation
employed to explore cross-system this is sometimes interpreted as a — questions that fall outside the
interactions in Chapter 16 exemplifies barrier to technological progress, a focus of narrow forms of risk
the latter approach. Other valuable more nuanced understanding casts assessment and are often brushed

PART 3
BOX 17.10 Identifying emerging risks and opportunities for Europe’s environment and policies
E ven when successful in its original

intended use, innovation can
result in unexpected and harmful
biology, artificial meat), the changing
context in which they operate
(e.g. climate change) or systemic effects
EU foresight system for the systematic
identification of emerging environmental
issues (FORENV) ‘to identify, characterise
consequences for the environment and related to radical transformations and assess emerging issues that may
human health. As numerous historical (e.g. energy systems). Another kind of represent risks or opportunities to
examples illustrate, mitigating harmful challenge is associated with the public’s Europe’s environment’. FORENV adopts
impacts requires identifying potential risk perception, as some technological a systematic and participatory approach
hazards as early and accurately as innovations can be met with more to risk management, building on
possible (EEA, 2001, 2013). In addition to societal protest or controversy than methodologies such as horizon scanning,
enabling interventions to limit impacts, expected (e.g. first-generation biofuels, text mining or media monitoring
early warning can help stimulate the wind turbines, nanotechnologies, (EC, 2017f) and on relevant expertise.
development of substitutes, hence genetically modified organisms), In particular, it links with the Scientific
contributing to sustainable innovation. especially in times of decreasing trust in Committee on Health, Environmental
institutions and experts. and Emerging Risks (SCHEER) and the
The increasing rate and complexity Eionet Forward-Looking Information
of technological and societal change Against this backdrop, the Seventh and Services (FLIS) representatives
(Chapters 1 and 15) means that early Environment Action Programme calls from EEA member countries. The first
warning systems need to anticipate for improvements in ‘the understanding 2018-2019 annual cycle is focusing
risks and opportunities that are not yet of, and the ability to evaluate and on identifying key emerging issues at
observable (Science for Environment manage, emerging environmental the environment‑social interface and
Policy, 2016). Emerging risks can result and climate risks’ (EC, 2013b). In communicating them to policymakers
from the introduction of radically new 2017, the Environment Knowledge and the public at large, encouraging
products or technologies (e.g. synthetic Community (EKC) (1) established the appropriate and timely action. ■
aside by popular discourses about and very much at the heart of depend on governance approaches
the value of innovation. For example, the shift to mission‑oriented and that reflect these interactions and help
Genus and Stirling (2018) argue that transformative innovation policy. ensure that systems operate together
‘Taken as a whole, EU initiatives within environmental limits.
and policies tend to characterise
innovation in an undifferentiated 17.5.4 Ecosystem-based management
way — as a self‑evidently generally Managing system interactions has emerged as a key governance
‘good thing’ irrespective of the within environmental limits approach for addressing the many
specific kind of innovation involved interactions within and between
or the alternatives that might As discussed in Section 16.5, society and nature. Ecosystem-based
thereby be foreclosed.’ A more production‑consumption systems management aims to coordinate the
precautionary approach — including interact in many ways — both with interactions between multiple actors
open, participatory approaches to each other and with ecosystems, and sustainability outcomes in ways
define directionality — is in tune for example through the resource that preserve ecosystem services and
with the EU’s concept of Responsible nexus. Achieving Europe’s long-term ensure that society operates within
Research and Innovation (EC, 2014a), sustainability goals will therefore environmental limits.
(1) The Environment Knowledge Community is an informal platform of five Commission Directorates-General (for Environment, Climate Action and
Research and Innovation, the Joint Research Centre, Eurostat) and the EEA that was set up in 2015 with the objective of improving the generation
and sharing of environmental knowledge for EU policies.

PART 3
In practice, ecosystem-based simple, because it challenges established

management brings together many of knowledge, skills, decision making
the features of innovative governance processes and structures (Voulvoulis
already highlighted in this section. et al., 2017). Perhaps, partly for these
In addition to being a distinctively reasons, Europe still has a long way
‘place-based’ governance approach, Ecosystem-based approaches to go to achieve good status in its
ecosystem‑based management involves help in understanding freshwater and marine ecosystems
(McLeod and Leslie, 2009; NOAA, 2018): (as discussed in Part 2 of this report).
environmental trends and
Nevertheless, adopting ecosystem-
• Engaging multiple actors: Rather coordinating collective action based approaches provides an essential
than addressing individual sectors, to preserve natural capital. starting point for understanding the
ecosystem-based management links between ecological status and
highlights the importance of the diverse pressures imposed by
interactions between stakeholders society and for coordinating collective
in a socio-ecological system and action in ways that preserve Europe’s
their cumulative impacts on the natural capital. As such, there could be
environment. This includes engaging grounded in flexible and innovative significant value in strengthening the
actors at different levels — from local institutions that are highly responsive to implementation of ecosystem-based
to global — in coordinating actions and new information and experiences. management and extending its use in EU
sharing data. environmental policy.
• Multidisciplinarity:
• Actions towards shared Understanding the interactions of Overall, ecosystem-based management
targets: Engaging sectors, public multiple societal and ecological systems provides a natural complement to the
authorities and other actors is achieved requires broad knowledge, including transitions frameworks described in
by defining shared targets linked to ‘synthesizing and applying knowledge this chapter. Whereas the multi-level
ecosystem functioning. For example, from across social and natural sciences, perspective is much stronger than
the Water Framework Directive as well as the humanities’ (Leslie and ecosystem-based management in
requires that water bodies achieve McLeod, 2007). explaining the dynamics of change
good ecological status across a variety in production-consumption systems,
of biological, hydromorphological and Within EU governance, ecosystem- it gives limited consideration to
physico‑chemical characteristics. based management underpins some cross‑system interactions and
of the key environmental policies that environmental impacts and thresholds.
• Focusing on diverse sustainability together contribute to implementing In contrast, ecosystem-based
outcomes: Ecosystem-based the EU biodiversity strategy, notably management addresses precisely these
management captures the full range of the Water Framework Directive and kinds of interlinkages and effects, using
benefits associated with maintaining the Marine Strategy Framework ecological criteria, and exploring them
ecosystem service flows, as well as the Directive. Since their introduction, at the spatial scales most appropriate
trade-offs inherent in reconciling the these tools have enabled a shift in for managing nature-society
activities of multiple sectors and other governance, bringing together sectors interactions, such as a river catchment
actors at a particular spatial scale. and Member States to consider and area or a regional sea spanning multiple
balance their collective interests and administrative boundaries. Considering
• Monitoring and adaptive assess the cumulative pressures that the multi-level perspective and
governance: Recognising that complex they are placing on particular regions ecosystem-based management together
systems are constantly changing in ways (EEA, 2015a). in future policy design could help
that cannot be predicted or controlled, accelerate sustainability transitions in
ecosystem-based management The shift to a systems approach in line with the 2050 vision of the Seventh
embraces an adaptive governance style, EU environmental governance is not Environment Action Programme.

2
PART 4
Conclusions
3
18.
Where do we
go from here?
4
© Daniel Kusak, My City/EEA
5
par A
PART 2
Summary
• Europe faces persistent • Achieving sustainability transitions • Sustainability transitions will
environmental challenges of will depend on coherent contributions require a detailed understanding of
unprecedented scale and urgency. across all policy domains. Beyond full the systems driving environmental
Where there has been progress on implementation of existing policies, challenges and potential pathways to
reducing emissions and impacts on this means embracing the Sustainable sustainability and their implications
human health, the improvements are Development Goals as an overarching across society. New and more inclusive
insufficient to meet the long-term framework for policymaking and modes of knowledge production are
objectives to 2050. Such persistent action. The EU’s new body of systemic, needed, building on big data and
challenges are resistant to traditional transformative policy frameworks will foresight. Developing knowledge
policy responses and could be more also be vital in mobilising and guiding and skills will require investment
fully resolved if they were addressed actions at different levels. However, in research, education and life-long
as broader sustainability issues that important gaps remain, particularly for learning.
cross environmental, social, economic the food system.
and governance dimensions and at • During the forthcoming EU
European and global levels. Addressing • There are opportunities to reorient policy cycle, Europe’s leaders have
them will require policies, investments the financial flows that structure the opportunity to shape future
and knowledge to be brought together Europe’s consumption and production. developments that will not be available
to transform the systems driving Governments have an essential role to their successors. Achieving Europe’s
unsustainability while maximising the in investing in public goods, financing long-term sustainability goals is
environmental, social and economic innovation and experimentation, still possible — but it requires an
co-benefits. and shaping private investment and immediate and fundamental shift in
financial markets. Key tools include Europe’s responses, including more
• Awareness about the fiscal reform and actions to promote concerted international action.
environmental and climate crisis is sustainable finance, alongside adopting
increasing across society. Citizens, metrics to measure progress that go
businesses and communities are ‘beyond gross domestic product (GDP)’.
experimenting with new ways of living
and working. Governments should
harness the energy in these initiatives
and encourage upscaling by supporting
social and technological innovation,
enabling new ways of networking and
engaging stakeholders in participative
governance, and ensuring socially fair
transitions.
6 par A
PART 4
18.
Where do we go from here?
18.1 In response to these challenges,

Critical choices in 2020 Europe will need to achieve a rapid and
2020 fundamental ‘transition to a low-carbon,
The EU and its nearest neighbours climate-neutral, resource-efficient and
stand at a critical juncture. Despite biodiverse economy’ (EC, 2019, p. 14).
progress in reducing some The decade from 2020 That means transforming the key
environmental pressures in recent societal systems driving pressures on the
to 2030 will be of vital
decades, Europe faces environmental environment and climate and impacts
and sustainability challenges of
importance in determining on health — notably energy, food and
unprecedented scale and urgency, Europe’s opportunities in mobility. It also means addressing the
which it cannot successfully address the 21st century. use of resources and chemicals across
alone. Calls for global action are being society and protecting biodiversity and
made across science, policy and society. ecosystems and their services. This
The Intergovernmental Panel on means rethinking not just technologies
Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded and production processes but also
that global CO2 emissions need to governance approaches, consumption
be roughly halved during the coming patterns and lifestyles.
decade to keep global warming to a Overcoming these challenges
maximum of 1.5 °C (IPCC, 2018). Global is possible, but it will require a The food, energy and mobility systems
use of resources is projected to double significant shift in the character and are crucial sources of greenhouse gas
by 2060 compared with current levels scale of Europe’s responses and (GHG) emissions and therefore drivers
(IRP, 2019). The Earth has experienced coordinated actions across society and of climate change. They also contribute
exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity internationally. Despite decades of to diverse forms of pollution, as well
and more species are threatened efforts on sustainable development, as land use change and landscape
with extinction now than at any other humanity’s impact on the environment fragmentation. The food system has
point in human history (IPBES, 2019). and climate is greater than ever before. particularly far-reaching impacts on
Approximately 19 million premature The decade from 2020 to 2030 will natural systems and people’s health
deaths are estimated to occur annually be of vital importance in determining and well-being, for example through
as a result of pollution of the air, soil, Europe’s opportunities in the diffuse nutrient pollution. Chemical
water and food globally (UNEP, 2017). 21st century. use across society also results in
SOER 2020/Where do we go from here? 415

PART 4
widespread environmental harm, slowed in relation to GHG emissions,

and there are few safe-by-design The current rate of progress industrial emissions, energy efficiency
alternatives available yet. and the share of energy from renewable
will not be sufficient to meet
sources. This indicates the need to go
There are considerable barriers to 2030 and 2050 climate and beyond incremental improvements
achieving systemic change at the pace energy targets. and to ensure that technology-driven
and scale required. People have become efficiency gains are not offset by
acclimatised to negative messages on increasing demand. The outlook to 2030
the state of the environment, leading to suggests that the current rate of progress
inadequate or delayed responses. For will not be sufficient to meet 2030 and
many European citizens and politicians, awareness, encouraging European 2050 climate and energy targets. In
the costs of this inaction can feel distant citizens to rethink their behaviours and addition, addressing environmental
and intangible. Moreover, systemic lifestyles. Fundamentally, the choice in pressures from economic sectors through
change inevitably challenges established 2020 is straightforward: to continue on environmental integration has not been
investments, jobs, policies, behaviours a trajectory that puts the environment, successful, as illustrated by agriculture’s
and norms. This can provoke resistance future economic development, well-being impacts on biodiversity and pollution of
from businesses, employees and and social cohesion at risk, or to change the air, water and soil.
society more broadly. Vested interests trajectory, setting Europe on a strong and
are one of the biggest obstacles to credible development pathway to achieve The global burden of disease
necessary change. The drive to maintain a sustainable future. and premature death related to
a competitive advantage can deter environmental pollution is three times
individual countries and businesses from greater than that arising from AIDS
pursuing ambitious environmental goals. 18.2 (acquired immune deficiency syndrome),
Challenges and opportunities tuberculosis and malaria combined
Yet there are also reasons for optimism. (Landrigan et al., 2017). In Europe, human
Some European citizens are becoming 18.2.1 health and well-being are still affected
increasingly vocal in expressing The main findings of SOER 2020 by exposure to air pollution, noise,
their frustration at the shortfalls in hazardous chemicals and increasing risks
environment and climate governance. As demonstrated in Part 2 of this report, from climate change. Environmental risks
Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) nature underpins and sustains human to health do not affect everyone in the
have taken legal action against national health, well-being and livelihoods. same way and there are pronounced
governments for not taking sufficient However, this foundation is deteriorating local and regional differences across
measures to fight climate change. fast. Europe’s success in addressing the Europe in terms of social vulnerability
Young people are becoming increasingly degradation of natural systems has been and exposure to environmental health
engaged and calling on policymakers limited. The majority of EU 2020 targets hazards. Groups of lower socio-economic
to act more decisively (e.g. the school related to protecting, maintaining and status tend to be more negatively
strike for climate campaign). In parallel, enhancing natural capital will not be affected. The outlook to 2030 for
innovations have emerged rapidly in achieved. The overall objective of the reducing environmental risks to health
recent years, for example in the form EU biodiversity strategy to halt the loss and well-being is uncertain. Current
of clean energy technologies and social of biodiversity and ecosystem services trends, coupled with important gaps and
innovations such as community energy, by 2020 will not be met. The outlook for uncertainties in the knowledge base, give
mobility and food initiatives. Some cities 2030 is not encouraging, and achieving rise to concerns.
and regions are leading the way in terms the Sustainable Development Goals
of ambition. Knowledge of systemic (SDGs) dedicated to protecting terrestrial The interrelated nature of Europe’s
challenges and responses is growing and and marine ecosystems (SDGs 14, 15) objectives in relation to natural capital,
is increasingly reflected in key European and other related targets (SDGs 2, 6) transforming the economy and reducing
policy frameworks. is very unlikely. environmental risks to health and
well-being mean that outcomes are
All of these developments are In contrast, Europe has made progress in determined by a complex mix of factors.
important because they create space reducing pressures. GHG emissions and Persistent environmental problems,
for governments to act and bring a new air pollution have been reduced while such as loss of biodiversity, ecosystem
scale of ambition to policy, investments economic growth has been sustained. degradation and climate change, are
and actions. They also help raise However, the pace of progress has intertwined with economic activities and
416 SOER 2020/Where do we go from here?

PART 4
lifestyles. For example, the way food of Europe’s environmental challenges

is produced and consumed influences Full implementation of increasingly highlights the need for
progress across a range of policy new kinds of governance responses.
existing policy would take
areas such as biodiversity and nature Yet established environmental policy
protection, climate change mitigation and the EU a long way towards instruments, such as environmental
adaptation, water quality and quantity, achieving its environmental quality standards, emissions limits
soil protection, the circular economy goals up to 2030. and legally binding targets, remain
and the bioeconomy. The systemic and indispensable tools for changing the
transboundary nature of challenges can trajectory towards sustainability.
limit the effectiveness of policy measures
that do not address the root causes of As demonstrated in Part 2, Europe’s
environmental damage, such as unclean In essence, Europe, along with the rest of environmental policy framework
production, overconsumption and the world, is running out of time to avoid — the environmental acquis — has
ecologically wasteful trade. catastrophic impacts on the economy and reduced some environmental pressures
society from climate change, ecosystem during recent decades while enhancing
Although signs of progress have been degradation and overconsumption of prosperity and well-being. Yet persistent
observed across the food, energy and natural resources. We are running out of weaknesses in policy implementation
mobility systems, environmental impacts time and space to adapt to such impacts. mean that Europe is not realising the
remain high and current trends are not There is an urgent need to mitigate full benefits of existing legislation. It
in line with long-term environmental pressures more rapidly and restore is estimated that 420 existing gaps in
and sustainability goals. Achieving such ecosystems to support sustainability the implementation of environmental
goals involves addressing environmental, objectives. legislation cost society EUR 30-80 billion
economic, social and governance annually (COWI and Eunomia, 2019).
dimensions together, bringing in This has implications for the development
the perspectives of a broad range of and implementation of policy and Full implementation of existing policy
stakeholders, and taking coherent actions governance, investments and knowledge. would take the EU a long way towards
across society. But it also brings opportunities to identify achieving its environmental goals up
more effective interventions. Embracing to 2030. Improving implementation
The conclusions of SOER 2020 are clear. a wider systems perspective enables will depend on increased funding and
Policies have been more effective in the identification of key synergies, capacity building, inclusive governance
reducing environmental pressures trade‑offs, lock-ins and systemic approaches that involve businesses and
than in protecting biodiversity and responses. For example, land use citizens, and better coordination of local,
ecosystems and human health and influences environmental outcomes regional and national authorities. It will
well-being. Despite the achievements across the food, energy and mobility also require actions to strengthen the
of European environmental systems as well as the built environment. knowledge base supporting thematic
governance, the outlook for Europe’s Therefore, land use choices can play a and sectoral policies. SOER 2020 has
environment in the coming decades is critical role in transformation, but the identified knowledge gaps in diverse
discouraging. Even in areas in which interlinkages need to be considered to areas, ranging from marine ecosystems
progress has been made, such as ensure that problems are not simply and environmental tipping points to
climate change mitigation, the scale of shifted elsewhere. drivers of resource consumption and
improvement needs to increase in the the effects of exposure to chemicals.
coming decades. Meanwhile, global
megatrends, such as the continued 18.2.2 Beyond implementation, there is a
growth in the population, economic Strengthening policy need to address gaps and strengthen
output and the demand for resources, implementation, integration some existing policy frameworks. Key
rising atmospheric GHG levels and and coherence gaps relate to land and soil and an
worsening impacts from climate integrated framework for environment
change, are intensifying environmental Since the 1970s, Europe has and health, including chemicals. Binding,
problems. New concerns are also constructed a comprehensive set of European‑wide quantitative targets are
emerging from technological environmental standards, founded on lacking for resource efficiency, resource
developments and geopolitical changes, an unparalleled international system of use, waste prevention and biodiversity.
with implications for the European monitoring, assessment and knowledge Other policy frameworks lack clearly
environment that are not clear. development. A growing understanding defined steps towards long-term goals.

PART 4
Better integration of environmental visions and goals into ambitious and

goals into sectoral policy is also The coverage of long-term EU binding targets and policies. Developing
essential. Integrating climate goals into concrete missions, as planned under
policy frameworks needs to be
energy policy has delivered important Horizon Europe, provides a valuable
progress, although further integration of extended to other important means of mobilising and coordinating
environmental objectives is needed, as systems and issues, such as public and private investments and of
decarbonisation can create significant food, chemicals and land use. engaging coalitions of actors in ways that
pressures on ecosystems. In other can support transformative change.
areas, progress has been weaker. In
the agricultural sector, environmental
integration into key policies such as the 18.2.4
common agricultural policy (CAP) has not to develop a series of systemic, Leading the global response towards
prevented continued loss of biodiversity long‑term policy frameworks that sustainability
and environmental degradation. This address multidimensional sustainability
points to the need for much more outcomes. Some focus on particular Europe cannot achieve its sustainability
ambitious and far-reaching efforts. areas, for example the Energy Union goals in isolation. Global environmental
More broadly, environmental objectives and the ‘Europe on the move’ agenda. and sustainability problems require
could be more fully integrated into Others are more cross-cutting, global responses. The IPCC and UNFCCC
economic decision-making, through, addressing decarbonisation and (United Nations Framework Convention
for example, the EU’s annual ‘European dematerialisation of the economy as on Climate Change) processes that
semester’ policy coordination process a whole. Such instruments include resulted in the Paris Agreement
and improved use of Europe’s system of the EU strategies for a low-carbon, exemplify the kinds of concerted
integrated environmental and economic circular and bio-based economy, as international efforts that are needed
accounting and measures of society‑wide well as the proposed strategy for a in other environmental fields. The EU
progress that go beyond GDP. climate-neutral Europe (EC, 2011, can use all its influence to ensure that
2015, 2018a, 2018b). They complement current Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Improving policy coherence can also established frameworks such as the Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem
enable more progress towards objectives. environment action programmes, Services (IPBES) and Convention on
For instance, large subsidies for fossil which enable stakeholders to come Biological Diversity (CBD) work on
fuel‑based energy persist, despite together to set priorities, contribute to biodiversity results in an ambitious
ambitious climate change and clean stronger commitments and enhance the global agreement in 2020. The EU could
energy objectives. Tackling diffuse coherence of EU and national policies also push for global frameworks on
nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus) pollution and actions. resource use, building on the work of
will likewise require more coherent the International Resource Panel and the
policies for agriculture, transport, industry The new frameworks are essential. EU’s own circular economy approach.
and waste water treatment. It also They signal a new understanding of And it could make full use of Europe’s
requires an integrated approach across sustainability challenges and responses, diplomatic and economic influence to
the land-sea continuum. Embracing a enhancing political commitment and promote the adoption of environmental
wider food system perspective — beyond coherence across policy areas and standards at the global level and
thematic and sectoral policies — would levels of government. Yet they are only their incorporation into international
be particularly beneficial, because diffuse a start. The coverage of long-term EU trade rules.
nutrient pollution is also influenced by frameworks needs to be extended to
society’s consumption patterns, such as other important systems and issues, The EU has an essential role in keeping
in food choices. such as food, chemicals and land use. sustainability at the top of the global
There are already growing calls for the agenda. Being a world leader in terms
EU to develop a ‘common food policy’ of its level of sustainability will benefit
18.2.3 (EESC, 2017; IPES Food, 2018). the European economy, as well as
Developing systemic policy helping preserve peace and security in
frameworks It will also be important to develop Europe, its neighbourhood and beyond.
comparable cross-cutting strategies at If action is not taken, climate change and
Recognising the need for coherent other levels of governance — including global environmental degradation will
action across policy areas and levels national, regional and city (EC, 2019) undoubtedly lead to conflicts and forced
of government, the EU has started — and to translate strategic long-term migration, jeopardising geopolitical

PART 4
stability and the international networks, facilitating interactions

rules‑based system. There are often major barriers and providing financial support. And
they can promote the phasing out of
and lock-ins that hinder the
The United Nations’ 2030 agenda for unsustainable activities.
sustainable development and the emergence and upscaling
SDGs provide an essential framework of innovations. Environmental policies are important,
for steering and coordinating these for example in stimulating innovation
international efforts. Full implementation and shaping the incentives that guide
of the 2030 agenda in Europe and active investment. But system innovation
support for implementation in other requires coherent contributions
regions (e.g. through the EU’s external this shift already exist. More and more from diverse policy areas, including
action, development aid and trade businesses, entrepreneurs, researchers, innovation and research, industry
policies) will be essential if Europe is to city administrations and local and sectors, education, welfare, trade
provide global leadership in achieving communities are experimenting with and employment. Systemic policy
sustainability transitions. Outsourcing new ways of producing and consuming. frameworks can enable sustainability
of unsustainable practices to other This diversity is essential, as it is not transitions by guiding and aligning
regions must be avoided, as this would possible to foresee the viability and actions across policy areas and scales.
undermine the other regions’ efforts appeal of novel ideas or to anticipate
to achieve the SDGs. Instead, the EU their impacts and implications when The challenges of and needs for regional
should foster a level playing field for taken up and used widely. development are highly diverse across
sustainability innovation worldwide Europe. Local settings provide vital
and export the sustainable solutions it In practice, there are often major barriers opportunities for experimenting with
develops. and lock-ins that hinder the emergence novel policy approaches and learning
and upscaling of innovations. Novelties about what works and what does not.
Global responses should also extend may struggle to compete with established Innovation therefore depends heavily
beyond intergovernmental approaches approaches that have benefited from on the enabling environment created
to embrace transnational networks of decades of efficiency improvements. by local and regional governments
civil society organisations, subnational Existing technologies are often tightly in both urban and rural areas. Cities
governments and companies. The EU linked to behaviours, cultural norms and municipalities have a particularly
could also find more ways to connect and values. Policies and market failures important role as hubs of innovation,
more strongly with such networks, may further protect incumbents from often with distinct powers and
not only from a funding perspective competition. And systemic changes, capacities to network and share ideas.
but also to build on their experience such as the shift to renewable energy They are often well ahead of national
and know‑how when setting up new technologies or to plant-based diets, can governments and EU policy in terms of
international initiatives. disrupt whole sectors, leading to stranded ambition and creativity.
assets and job losses. This is likely to
provoke strong resistance from some
18.3 businesses and consumers. 18.3.2
Enabling sustainability Scaling up investments and
transitions These realities point to an essential reorienting finance
role for diverse public policies and
18.3.1 institutions in stimulating the emergence Following the economic and financial
Fostering innovation throughout of bottom-up solutions and facilitating crisis of 2008, governments have
society system innovation. Policies can provide focused on rebuilding public finances
resources and incentives to enable and returning the economy to growth.
Changing trajectory will depend critically experimentation and real-world piloting Although these are understandable
on the emergence and spread of new of new practices. They can stimulate the goals, the potential costs of failing
social practices, technologies, business diffusion of promising innovations by to tackle environmental and climate
models and nature-based solutions correcting market failures, promoting challenges continue to grow. Although
throughout society. Innovations in the diffusion of knowledge or offering achieving sustainability transitions will
these diverse areas hold the potential diverse incentives for their adoption. require major investment, Europeans
to trigger behavioural changes and new They can create an enabling framework stand to gain hugely — as a result
ways of thinking and living. The seeds of for social innovations by creating of both avoided harm to nature and

PART 4
420 © Ieva
SOER Bruneniece,
2020/Where do weMy
go City/EEA
from here?
PART 4
society and the economic and social Engaging the financial sector in
opportunities that such transitions Cumulative savings from sustainable investment is likely to
create. This implies an urgent need to require additional measures, for
reduced imports of fossil
prioritise and upscale investments in example developing robust and
sustainability transitions, even if that fuels are projected to total shared definitions of sustainable
means redirecting public funds from EUR 2-3 trillion in the period investment, increasing transparency
debt reduction in the short term. 2031‑2050. and enhancing reporting requirements
on environmental and sustainability
Estimates of the investment risks. Accelerated implementation of the
required to achieve a climate-neutral EU’s sustainable finance action plan will
Europe illustrate both challenges be essential.
and opportunities (EC, 2018b). in innovation) or accrue to society
Modernising and decarbonising the generally (e.g. investments in public Much more can be done to achieve
EU economy is estimated to require infrastructure or natural capital). existing commitments. The EU has
additional investment in the energy Governments need to be more active made little progress towards its goal
system and related infrastructure of in these areas by creating incentives of increasing R&D (research and
EUR 175‑290 billion each year. But it to stimulate and direct business development) spending to 3 % of GDP
would bring major health benefits, for investment. They can also do more to by 2020. The public sector also needs
example reducing health problems facilitate household investment (e.g. in to ensure that investments promote
related to fine particulate matter retrofitting of housing), which accounts challenge-led research, targeting
by around EUR 200 billion per year. for a substantial proportion of the environment- and climate-friendly
Cumulative savings from reduced spending needed to achieve climate innovations and nature-based solutions.
imports of fossil fuels are projected goals. In these areas, public policies Governments need to become much
to total EUR 2-3 trillion in the period and institutions can help in overcoming more active in stimulating, orienting and
2031-2050. The shift to energy from the high upfront costs for households complementing private investments
renewable sources will also open and high transaction costs for banks at later stages of innovation. This
up new opportunities for European that are currently a barrier to the will necessitate greater levels of
countries in global clean energy necessary investment. ambition, engagement and risk-taking
markets, which are already worth and a willingness to accept failures
EUR 1.3 trillion. Environmental fiscal reform, aimed at alongside successes.
both increasing environmental taxes
Mitigating climate change is only one part and removing harmful subsidies, will
of the investment challenge. Globally, be essential to correct market failures 18.3.3
achieving the SDGs may cost USD 5-7 and achieve cost-effective investment. Managing risks and ensuring a
trillion annually (UNCTAD, 2014). Such Modelling indicates that achieving socially fair transition
investment looks feasible compared with long-term climate targets using
total global investment of approximately pricing measures (e.g. environmental Transition processes are unpredictable
USD 20 trillion (World Bank, 2019). But it taxes, tradable permits) will require and often produce unintended
will require a fundamental reorientation very steep increases in carbon consequences and surprises.
of public and private spending. At prices in the coming years (IEA and Innovations such as novel chemicals
present, much of Europe’s investment IRENA, 2017), implying considerable and materials can present direct
perpetuates unsustainable modes political barriers. This underlines threats to human and environmental
of producing and consuming, guided the need to design environmental health including the risk of causing
by market prices that do not reflect fiscal reforms in ways that offset irreversible harm. The interplay of
environmental and social harms. regressive impacts. It also implies a innovations and social responses may
need for joined-up approaches that produce counter-productive outcomes,
Public investment is essential for combine environmental taxes with as in the case of car-sharing schemes
financing sustainability transitions, tools such as feed-in-tariffs, portfolio causing people to cycle or walk less.
particularly in areas in which market standards, minimum performance Interdependencies between systems
incentives for private investment standards, public procurement and can produce unexpected harm, such
are weak. This is often the case co-financing mechanisms, such as the deforestation and increases in
when returns on expenditure are as the EU’s European Fund for food prices that accompanied expanded
highly uncertain (e.g. investments Strategic Investments. biofuel production in the early 2000s.

PART 4
Equally, however, sustainability society, creates new opportunities

transitions will create diverse new jobs Transitions processes and demands for knowledge. These
and opportunities — often in ways that include detailed evidence about the
can be supported by ensuring
are hard to anticipate in advance. structure, drivers and dynamics of
knowledge is used to empower production‑consumption systems
Successful governance of sustainability action across society. at different scales and evidence
transitions will require societies to that enables societies to learn from
acknowledge the potential risks, successes and failures, to upscale
opportunities and trade-offs and devise promising initiatives and to identify
ways to navigate them. The need to barriers to change and unexpected
ensure that both benefits and costs are consequences. Furthermore, ICT
shared fairly across society is reflected trade-offs and negative cumulative (information and communications
in growing calls for just and socially fair impacts. In practice, however, technology) and AI should be harnessed
transitions. assessing and mitigating all risks in to support decision support tools
advance is impossible. Governance of that help societal stakeholders select
Policies have an essential role here, for sustainability transitions must therefore transition pathways and adapt them as
example in supporting companies and apply precautionary approaches that circumstances and knowledge change.
workers in industries facing phasing out. avoid lock-ins to dangerous pathways
Measures such as retraining, subsidies, by acting on early warnings from Transitions processes also call for
technical assistance or investment can science and society and by promoting more systems-oriented, anticipatory
help negatively affected regions and experimentation, monitoring and and transdisciplinary approaches to
ensure that they secure benefits from adaptive learning. knowledge and action. For example,
systemic change. The growing use of the social sciences can provide vital
EU regional and innovation policy to insights into how to scale up social and
help badly affected regions to transition 18.3.4 grassroots innovations for sustainability
towards sustainable economic sectors Linking knowledge with action (e.g. through practice-based knowledge),
is a welcome development. But there how to overcome lock-ins, conflicts and
is a need for more ambitious and far- To support existing environmental policy vested interests, and how to trigger
reaching action. objectives, there is a clear need to invest individual and societal changes towards
in better in situ monitoring to address sustainable lifestyles (e.g. the link
Democratising information, enabling existing knowledge gaps, for example in between providing information and
local action and empowering the areas of biodiversity and soil. Europe behavioural change).
communities are key prerequisites should seize the major opportunities
for a just transition. There are many that digitalisation offers for knowledge Effective science-society interfaces at
legitimate perspectives on desirable production and communication. It all levels of governance can ensure that
futures and choices on how to reach is now possible to collect, store and knowledge is understood and used to
them. Effective governance requires process ever larger amounts of data, empower action across society. This
participatory processes that enable for example those generated by Earth requires public institutions to collaborate
diverse stakeholders to identify shared observation services (e.g. Copernicus), and combine their knowledge and skills,
visions and goals and credible pathways automated sensors in the environment, as well as developing new capacities and
to reach them. and crowd‑sourced contributions from competencies, for example in relation
citizens. Although ‘big data’ are currently to systems thinking, foresight and
Foresight approaches can help difficult to interpret, new data analytics engaging stakeholders. It also means
stakeholders across society to and artificial intelligence (AI) offer new empowering citizens, for example
share diverse opinions and ideas, means of doing so, providing insights by ensuring that lifelong education
collectively visualise alternative futures, into what is happening and why. increases environmental literacy and
potential pathways to reach them and enables active public participation
options for policy and action. Early The emergence of new sustainability in environmental protection and
identification of emerging risks and challenges and systemic and transitions processes.
opportunities related to technological transformative policy responses,
and societal developments is crucial, coupled with the desire to promote and More than ever, ensuring that relevant
as are approaches that help expose navigate transition processes across and credible knowledge is actually used

PART 4
by decision-makers is a key challenge. In and consumption patterns and lifestyles. and health). Engage stakeholders in
the broader societal context of increased Ensure that diverse policy areas developing transformative visions
distrust of public institutions and experts work together to enable transitions. and pathways that reflect the diverse
and of greater use of more decentralised, Promote the emergence and spread realities across Europe and maximise
less regulated channels of information of diverse ideas and innovations by environmental, social and economic
(e.g. social networks, blogs), knowledge helping bottom-up initiatives to learn co-benefits. Use resource nexus
organisations such as the EEA and Eionet and network. Engage stakeholders and ecosystem-based management
(the European Environment Information in inclusive governance processes to approaches to avoid burden shifting,
and Observation Network) need to reflect open up a broader range of societal respect environmental limits and achieve
on their approaches to gathering, labelling responses. And ensure that transitions integrated management of natural
and communicating their knowledge. are socially fair, particularly for the most resources.
vulnerable in society.
• Reorient public budgets, private
18.4 • Embrace the SDGs as an investments and financial markets
The next 10 years — from overarching framework for towards promoting sustainability
ambition to action policymaking and implementation transitions — by making full use of
— at all scales, and complement them public resources to invest in innovations
Europe has only 30 years to achieve its with additional measures if the goals and nature-based solutions, procure
long-term vision of ‘living well, within could be more ambitious, for example sustainably and support affected sectors
the limits of our planet’. Thirty years on air pollution and impacts on health. and regions. Develop and adopt metrics
may seem like a long time, but it is now Actively support implementation of for measuring society’s progress towards
almost five decades since the Stockholm the SDGs in other regions, in particular sustainability that go beyond GDP.
Declaration on the Human Environment Europe’s neighbourhood. Use Europe’s Mobilise and direct private spending by
(UN, 1972). In that period, many of diplomatic and economic influence shaping investment and consumption
Europe’s sustainability challenges have to promote the adoption of global choices, including through environmental
grown. Achieving the 2050 vision will environmental standards, including in fiscal reform and removing harmful
therefore require an immediate and international trade rules. And avoid subsidies. Engage the financial sector in
fundamental shift in the character and outsourcing unsustainable practices sustainable investment by implementing
scale of Europe’s response. that undermine other countries’ efforts and building on the EU’s sustainable
to achieve the SDGs. finance action plan.
In 2020, Europe’s leaders have
the opportunity to shape future • Realise the unfulfilled potential • Develop knowledge and skills
developments that will not be available of existing environmental policies fit for the 21st century — focusing
to their successors. The 2030 agenda for — by achieving full implementation on understanding the key systems
sustainable development and the Paris across Europe through increased driving sustainability challenges and
Agreement provide clear international funding, capacity building, stakeholder opportunities for change. Build capacity
acknowledgement of the need for urgent engagement and better coordination of to navigate a rapidly changing world by
and far-reaching action. Europe has a local, regional and national authorities. investing in education, life-long learning
unique window of opportunity to lead Increase public awareness of the and R&D programmes focused on
the global response to sustainability co benefits for prosperity, security sustainability. Harness the potential of
challenges. But it faces critical choices. and well-being. Address gaps in policy new digital technologies to generate
What should Europe do differently in and monitoring in areas such as land, and share relevant knowledge that
2020 and the decade that follows? soil and chemicals. And ensure that support all decision-makers to make
integrating environmental goals into choices consistent with pathways to
SOER 2020 points to six key areas in sectoral policies produces significant and sustainability.
which bold action is needed: measurable outcomes.
The extent of the environmental and
• Enable transformative change • Develop systemic policy climate crisis is clear. Calls for action
across Europe — by harnessing the frameworks with binding targets — to have been made across society and
ambition, creativity and power of mobilise and guide actions across society SOER 2020 confirms the urgent need
citizens, businesses and communities (starting with the food system and an for transformative change. Now is the
to shift towards sustainable production integrated framework for environment time to act.

Acknowledgements
SOER 2020 OVERALL COORDINATION Chapter 08: Air pollution
Lead authors: Alberto González Ortiz, Anke Lükewille
Anita Pirc Velkavrh, Jock Martin, Tobias Lung Contributors: Artur Gsella, Evrim Özturk,
Federico Antognazza, Michel Houssiau
Chapter 09: Waste and resources in a circular economy

EEA LEAD AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS Lead authors: Almut Reichel, Pawel Kaźmierczyk
Contributor: Simone Manfredi
Part 1
Coordination and inputs across chapters: Frank Wugt Chapter 10: Chemical pollution
Larsen, Tobias Lung Lead authors: Almut Reichel, Catherine Ganzleben,
Cathy Maguire, Xenia Trier
Chapter 00: Reporting on the environment in Europe
Lead authors: Mike Asquith, Tobias Lung Chapter 11: Environmental noise
Contributors: Cathy Maguire, Kees Schotten, Lorenzo Benini, Lead author: Eulalia Peris
Vincent Viaud
Chapter 12: Industrial pollution
Chapter 01: Assessing the global-European context and trends Lead author: Bastian Zeiger
Lead authors: Frank Wugt Larsen, Tobias Lung
Contributors: Cathy Maguire, Lorenzo Benini, Vincent Viaud Chapter 13: Environmental pressures and sectors
Coordinating lead author: Cathy Maguire
Chapter 02: Europe’s policies and sustainability goals Lead authors: Ana Tejedor Arceredillo, Andreas Unterstaller,
Lead author: Vincent Viaud Annemarie Bastrup-Birk, Doris Marquardt,
Stefan Ulrich Speck
Part 2
Coordination and inputs across chapters: Almut Reichel, Chapter 14: Summary assessment
Cathy Maguire Lead authors: Cathy Maguire, Tobias Lung
Contributor: Almut Reichel
Chapter 03: Biodiversity and nature
Lead author: Katarzyna Biala Part 3
Contributors: Carlos Romao, Eleni Tryfon, Gorm Dige, Coordination and inputs across chapters: Anita Pirc
Markus Erhard, Mette Palitzsch Lund, Rainer Baritz Velkavrh, Jock Martin, Mike Asquith, Tobias Lung,
Vincent Viaud
Chapter 04: Freshwater
Lead author: Trine Christiansen Chapter 15: Sustainability through a systems lens
Contributors: Caroline Whalley, Nihat Zal, Peter Kristensen Lead author: Vincent Viaud
Contributors: Lorenzo Benini, Mike Asquith
Chapter 05: Land and soil
Lead authors: Eva Ivits-Wasser, Rainer Baritz Chapter 16: Understanding sustainability challenges
Contributor: Andrus Meiner, Annemarie Bastrup-Birk, Lead authors: Lorenzo Benini, Mike Asquith
Beate Werner, Doris Marquardt, Jan-Erik Petersen, Contributors: Andreas Unterstaller, Cathy Maguire, Frank Wugt
Katarzyna Biala Larsen, Mihai Tomescu, Tobias Lung, Vincent Viaud
Chapter 06: Marine environment Chapter 17: Responding to sustainability challenges

Lead author: Johnny Reker Lead author: Mike Asquith
Contributors: Eva Gelabert, Monika Peterlin Contributors: Aleksandra Kazmierczak, Cathy Maguire,
Frank Wugt Larsen, Gorm Dige, Mieke De Schoenmakere,
Chapter 07: Climate change Tobias Lung, Vincent Viaud
Lead authors: Hans-Martin Füssel, Mihai Tomescu,
Ricardo Fernandez Part 4
Contributors: Aleksandra Kazmierczak, Blaz Kurnik, Chapter 18: Where do we go from here?
Claire Qoul, Magdalena Jozwicka, Melanie Sporer, Lead authors: Cathy Maguire, Mike Asquith, Tobias Lung,
Sergio Castellari, Wouter Vanneuville Vincent Viaud
424 SOER 2020/Acknowledgements

PRODUCTION AND EDITING SUPPORT • Analytical contributions from the Eionet National
Reference Centres (NRCs) for Forward-Looking Information
Alejandra Bize Lopez, Andy Martin, Brendan Killeen, and Services (FLIS) and State of the Environment
Carsten Iversen, Gaia Russo, Hanne Koch Andersen, Reporting (SOE).
Jim Daniell, Leeanne Galea, Marco Giannini
• Analytical contributions from European Topic Centres
(ETCs): ETC Air pollution and Climate Change Mitigation
(ACM) (until July 2018); ETC Air pollution, Transport, Noise and
EEA ADVISORY GROUP Industrial Pollution (ATNI) (from August 2018); ETC Climate
Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (CCA);
André Jol, Andrus Meiner, Beate Werner, Blaz Kurnik, ETC Climate Mitigation and Energy (CME) (from July 2018);
Catherine Ganzleben, Daniel Martin-Montalvo Álvarez, ETC Biological Diversity (BD); ETC Inland, Coastal and Marine
Francois Dejean, Galina Hristova, Stéphane Isoard waters (ICM); ETC Urban, Land and Soil systems (ULS);
ETC Waste and Materials in a Green Economy (WMGE).
• Analytical contributions from Collingwood Environmental

OTHER INPUTS Planning (CEP), Futureline, German Environment Agency (UBA),
GRID-Geneva, Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW),
• Strategic guidance and discussions with the EEA Scientific Shaping Environmental Action (EA), Stockholm Environment
Committee: Prof. Ana Iglesias (Technical University of Madrid), Institute (SEI), University of Manchester, University of Sussex —
Prof. Andrew Jordan (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU).
University of East Anglia), Dr Angel Borja (AZTI‑Tecnalia),
Prof. Claire Dupont (Ghent University), Prof. Frank Geels • Feedback from and discussions with colleagues from the
(University of Manchester), Prof. Fred Steward (University European Commission: Directorate-General (DG) Environment
of Westminster), Prof. Greet Schoeters (Flemish Institute for (coordination), DG Climate Action, DG Agriculture, Joint
Technological Research — VITO), Hon. Prof. Jean-Louis Weber, Research Centre, Eurostat.
Dr Joachim Spangenberg (Helmholtz Centre for Environment
Research — UFZ), Dr Leonor Tarraon (Norwegian Institute • Feedback from Eionet — via National Focal Points (NFPs)
for Air Research), Prof. Malgorzata Grodzińska-Jurczak and NRCs from the EEA’s 33 member countries and six
(Jagiellonian University), Prof. Per Mickwitz (International cooperating countries.
Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics,
Lund University), Prof. Mikael Skou Andersen (Aarhus • Feedback and guidance from the EEA Management Board.
University), Prof. Philippe Grandjean (University of Southern
Denmark), Prof. Tom Oliver (University of Reading), • Feedback from the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA)
Dr Vincent‑Henri Peuch (European Centre for Medium-Range and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).
Weather Forecasts — ECMWF), Dr Theodoros Zachariadis
(Cyprus University of Technology). • Feedback from EEA colleagues.
SOER 2020 is dedicated to our valued colleagues Pawel Kaźmierczyk and Anca-Diana Barbu,
who sadly passed away during the implementation of the SOER 2020 project, in acknowledgement
of their contributions to several SOER reports, including this one.
SOER 2020/Acknowledgements 425

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The European environment —

state and outlook 2020

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu).

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019

REG.NO. DK- 000244

European Environment Agency

I. Foreword......................................7 Chapter 00.....................................20 Introduction..................................71

Chapter 02.....................................54 Chapter 05...................................112

Chapter 09....................................210 Chapter 15....................................334 Chapter 18.....................................412

SOER 2020 in a nutshell Europe stands at a critical juncture in 2020.

Theme Past trends and outlook Prospects of meeting policy

Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Deteriorating trends/developments dominate Year  Largely not on track

• Production-consumption systems are also linked

Linking knowledge with action: Achieving

A short history public. It draws on the knowledge

SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe 23

TABLE 0.1 The focus and context of SOERs 1995 to 2020

SOER Focus Input to EU environmental policy

24 SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

transdisciplinary knowledge. Two of these assessment approach of SOER 2015

FIGURE 0.1 Structure of the SOER 2020 report

PART 1 PART 2 PART 3 PART 4

2 chapters addressing: 12 chapters addressing: 3 chapters addressing: 1 chapter addressing:

SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe 25

BOX 0.1 State of the environment reporting in Europe at a glance

Bosnia and Herzegovina

SoE report Malta

in their SoE report

The four as open data Slovakia

SoE report Estonia

The ﬁrst State of the Hungary

EEA SOER reports Belgium

SoE report published Published in 2019 Scheduled for publishing in 2020

Source: EEA and Eionet.

26 SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

United Nations milestones

European Union milestones

SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

BOX 0.1 State of the environment reporting in Europe at a glance (cont.)

water & land)

Biodiversity Freshwater Land Marine Climate

Air Waste and Chemical Environmental Industrial

Agriculture Marine ﬁsheries Forestry Transport Eco-industries

Systems and sustainability transitions

The food The energy The mobility Sustainability

mitigation and adaptation; air pollution; also responds to the challenge of

28 SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

State of the environment: tools and building blocks

Data Indicators Scoreboards Assessments

Advances in national state of the environment reporting

SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe 29

R ecognising the need to develop

30 SOER 2020/Reporting on the environment in Europe

Focus of national/regional study

(BE) (Flemish Environment Agency, 2014)

(Slovak Environment Agency et al., 2016)

(Valtioneuvoston kanslia, 2017)

Technological Accelerating technological change × × × × × × × 64

Economic Continued economic growth? × × × × × × × × × 82

Environmental Growing pressures on ecosystems × × × × × × × × 73

Political Diversifying approaches × × × × × x 55

Source: EEA, based on NRC FLIS inputs.