If outcome of a random experiment can be categorized in to two categories of success & failure with probability p and

(1-p), then if the experiment is repeated n-times independently, the probability of k success in n-independent trial is
given by

P(X=k)=nCk pk(1-p)n-k k=0,1,2,3………………n

And, we say random variable X follows normal distribution with parameter n and p.

Now we have a similar situation kind of situation as described above where random selection of hospital may result in a
selection of a rural hospital with probability p=40%=0.40

Further, for n=70, the number of randomly selected hospitals and X=30, the number of rural hospitals selected,

Now, the probability of selecting exactly k rural hospitals will be

P(X=k)=70Ck (0.40)k(1-0.40)70-k…………………………………………………………..(1)

P(Fewer than 30 rural Hospitals)

= P(X<30) =P(X≤29) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)+ P(X=2)+ P(X=3)………………………+ P(X=29)

But using formula (1) for further calculation will be very tedious so instead of using the classical formula (1) we will use
an Excel function to get the desired result as below:

P(Fewer than 30 Rural Hospitals) =P(X<30) =P(X≤29)= BINOM.DIST(29,70,0.4,1)= 0.645299

Thus,

Probability that fewer than 30 rural hospitals = 0.645299

Now, at second instance, we have been given n=150 & X=60

Probability that more than 60 would be rural hospitals =P(X>60)=1-P(X≤60)= =1-BINOM.DIST(60,150,0.4,1)= 0.464613

Thus,

Probability that more than 60 would be rural hospitals = 0.464613

Thus, on comparing results, we can conclude that there is higher chances of getting fewer than 30 rural hospital from a
sample of 70 that the chance of getting more than 60 rural hospitals in a sample of 150.
The Formula View & Data View of Excel sheet used for calculation is below:

Formula View of Excel sheet

Data View of Excel sheet

A set of cards with the numbers 200 to 299 is used in a game. The cards are shuffled and the top card is
turned up. Calculate the expectation and explain its meaning.

The number on turning the card up will be a random variable whose values will range from 200 to 299.
Let us denote this random variable by X,
Then X=200, 201, 202, 203, ……….. 297, 298, 299
Then as there are total 100 cards and one card may appear on the top in one and only one way thus
P(X)=1/100 , X=200, 201, 202, 203, ……….. 297, 298, 299

Now the expectation of X will be given by

 299
200∗1 1∗1 2∗1 98∗1 99∗1
E ( x )= ∑ x . P ( x) = + 20 +20 … … … … ..+2 +2
x=200 100 100 100 100 100
1
E ( x )= ( 200+201+202+… … … … ..299 )
100
Using the formula for sum of the Arithmetic Progression

1
∗100
100
E ( x )= [ 2∗200+ ( 100−1 )∗1 ] =249.5
2
E(x)=249.5

This means that the average of the numbers that appeared on the top will be 249.5 if the experiment is repeated a
sufficiently large number of times.