Final Assignment By:- Rajendra Kumar Meena

Enroll No:- 20810049

SUMMARY
The course was about the basic python programming, fundamentals of queuing models and simulations.

Learned about various python statements like if, else, elseif, for, while, class and others through various hand-
in sessions. This helps in writing codes for various simulating examples, Monte-Carlo simulation, simulations of
dynamic models and M/M/1 queue simulation.

Simulation
A simulation or modeling is an imitation of the dynamics of a real-world process or system over time. It is to
create an artificial history of a system to draw inferences about its characteristics and workings. It helps in
evaluating various strategies for the operation of the system. Simulation is use to the following: -

• To understand dynamic behaviour of system.

• To quantify the stochastic behaviour.

• To experiment with policies or new designs before implementation.

• To understand system response to changes in inputs, information & environment.

• To verify / reinforce analytic solutions.

The behaviour of any system or process is studied by constructing a simulation model, which usually based on
the set of assumptions about the workings of the system or process. The simulation model can be used for a
variety of tasks, such as:-

• To investigate the behaviour of the system under a number of scenarios. This is also referred to as
"what-if" analysis;
• The Changes to the system, can be seen through simulation before implementation to predict their
impact in real world;
• During the design stage of any system, meaning while it is being built, simulation can be used to guide
its construction.

Computer simulation has been used in a variety of domains, including manufacturing, health care, transport
system, defence and management science.

Generating random variables are the most important ingredient for building a simulation model. In order to
simulate the system, we need to be able to generate instances of Exponential and Normal random variables.
The basic methods used in generating random variables are Inverse-Transform Method and Accept-Reject
Method

Simulation methodology

Monte-Carlo simulation- A Monte Carlo simulation is a model used to predict the probability or possibility of
different outcomes when the intervention of random variables is present in the system. Monte Carlo simulations
helps us to explain the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models. Monte-Carlo
Simulation Examples Estimate value of pi, inventory model, profit forecasting model and others

System dynamics -Useful in modelling complex world. Differential equations often model the dynamics. Like
population dynamics- the rate of change of population of a region is affected by its birth rate and death rate and
the rate of change of the population is proportional to the existing population. Epidemic modelling, vaccination
modelling and others

Discrete event simulation- Discrete event systems (DES) are dynamic systems that evolve in time by events at
possibly irregular time intervals. Examples of DES include traffic systems, flexible manufacturing systems,
computer-communications systems, production lines, coherent lifetime systems, and flow networks
Final Assignment By:- Rajendra Kumar Meena
Enroll No:- 20810049

Queuing Systems
A queuing system consists of the servers and the customers. Waiting line or queues are in the hospitals, schools,
hospitals, bookstores, libraries, post office, banks , petrol pumps etc., all have Queuing related problems.
Queuing system theory is a branch of operations research management because the results are used to make
managerial decisions about the allocation of resources in order to provide efficient service. Many applications
of the queuing system are scheduling (patients in hospitals, jobs on machines, programs on computer), traffic
flow (vehicles, aircraft, people, communications), and facility design (banks, post offices, supermarkets).
Queuing theory examines every component of waiting in line, including the arrival process, service process,
number of servers, number of system places, and the number of customers—which might be people, data
packets, cars, or anything else.

Suitable techniques can be used to decrease the waiting time of an object in the system because waiting time
cannot be eliminated completely. A long waiting line can result in loss of customers to an organization as well
as financial implication. Queueing models are helpful in determining how to operate queuing system in the most
effective way, including trade-off between cost and waiting. The queue discipline includes First-come, first-
served (FCFS), Random selection, some priority procedure, or even last-come, first-served. Queuing model
includes standard queuing models that are M/M/1 & M/M/s models and advanced queuing models that are
M/M/1 & M/M/s queue with only s waiting space.

Simulation of queuing system

Each queuing system is a typical problem of discrete event system, and the computer simulation becomes a
quite effective way for solving the queuing problems and analysing its performances in a feasible manner.

Example

Bank ATMs -In ATM, bank customers arrive randomly and the service time that is the time customer takes to do
transaction in ATM, is also random. Queuing model is used to derive the arrival rate, waiting time in the queue,
service rate, utilisation rate, and the average number of customers in the queue. Queuing can help bank ATM
to increase its quality of service, by anticipating, if there are many customers in the queue

MANAGERIAL INSIGHTS: -

Simulation

The simulation technique observes various outcomes under artificial or hypothetical scenario. Managers of the
organisation try to understand how their decisions will work out under diverse circumstances in the system.
Based on that they finalise on the decision that is likely to be the most beneficial to the organisation.
Understanding outcomes under such simulated environments instead of natural settings reduces risks
drastically.

Queuing systems

It describes how to determine the number of service units that will minimize customer waiting time and service
cost. The managers apply the queuing system where waiting lines are a common situation.

Many organizations routinely use queueing models to help manage and allocate resources in order to respond
to demands in a timely and cost- efficient manner. Managers who look after queueing systems are mainly
concerned with 2 measures of performance:

1. How many customers typically are waiting in the queueing system?

2. How long do these customers typically have to wait?

The queuing analysis aims to predict the system performance such as how many customers get processed per
time step, the average delay a customer endures before being served, and the size of the queue or waiting room
required. The based on the analysis manager takes decision in order to reduce the waiting time which is
beneficial to the organisation in terms of reputation, and financial terms.