Commentary For The 2019 Exam Papers

Examiners’ commentaries 2019

ST104b Statistics 2
Important note
This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this course in the
academic year 2018–19. The format and structure of the examination may change in future years,
and any such changes will be publicised on the virtual learning environment (VLE).
Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading

references
Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the subject guide (2014).
You should always attempt to use the most recent edition of any Essential reading textbook, even if
the commentary and/or online reading list and/or subject guide refer to an earlier edition. If
different editions of Essential reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if
none are available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the relevant
section.
General remarks
Learning outcomes
At the end of this half course, and having completed the Essential reading and activities, you should
be able to:
• apply and be competent users of standard statistical operators and be able to recall a
variety of well-known distributions and their respective moments
• explain the fundamentals of statistical inference and apply these principles to justify the use
of an appropriate model and perform tests in a number of different settings
• demonstrate understanding that statistical techniques are based on assumptions and the
plausibility of such assumptions must be investigated when analysing real problems.
Format of the examination
The examination is two hours long and you must answer all four questions.
Question 1, for 40% of the marks, is a compulsory question with several parts. It is designed to test
general knowledge and understanding of the whole syllabus. Here candidates are expected to give
reasoned answers, with some explanation, avoiding one-word responses which will never be given any
marks. More emphasis is given to understanding than to knowledge. Candidates should answer the
first part of this question (true or false statements) either by proving that the statement is true or
false or, in the case of a false statement, providing a counterexample. It is not sufficient to just
provide the correct answer (no credit is given for this); an explanation is required. Furthermore,
when trying to show that a certain statement is true, it is not sufficient to show that the statement
1
ST104b Statistics 2
is true in a very specific case – this does not prove the statement is true, you must show the
statement holds in all circumstances.
The other three questions are also compulsory and account for 20% of the total marks each. They
are meant to test a greater depth of knowledge on parts of the syllabus. They are also longer and
examine the ability to apply general knowledge and concepts to specific problems.
How to prepare for the examination
It is hard to overemphasise that memorising answers to past examination questions is not the best
way to study for this paper. It is important for candidates to understand the material they write
down, and to be able to develop it all from scratch as they write it. Often, there are several ways to
obtain good marks for a question. If you cannot solve a certain section of a question you might still
get full marks for subsequent sections as long as your reasoning is correct.
A very good mathematics background is extremely important. The course can be divided into a
probability and distribution theory part and a statistics part. A mathematics background is
important for both but especially for the probability and distribution theory part.
You should ensure you have an understanding of all parts of the half course. Specialising is a bad
strategy as all questions are compulsory and there is no choice.
The paper is light on computations, as questions are answered with the use of a basic calculator only.
Key steps to improvement
You should understand all parts of the half course without exception. Remember that all questions
in the paper are compulsory. Another reason why you should understand all parts of the course is
that you should not expect to get very similar questions compared to previous years’ papers.
You should be able to write down or discuss definitions or models used in the syllabus.
It is important that you have the necessary mathematical skills. This means that you should
understand your mathematics courses well too.
Routine computations are less important and you should spend more time understanding the
concepts. Understanding concepts means being able to apply them, sometimes even in combined
situations.
As stated earlier, the ST104b Statistics 2 examinations are not heavy in calculations.
Probability is the most important part of the half course as everything else depends on it. You must
have a thorough understanding of all concepts. You should avoid making elementary mistakes which
demonstrate a lack of understanding and are hence heavily penalised by the examiners. These
include the following.
• Calculating probabilities outside the range 0 to 1. Should that happen because of a

calculation mistake, candidates must state that they think a mistake was made.
• Calculating negative variances or sums of squares. Should that happen because of a
calculation mistake, candidates must state that they think a mistake was made.
• Finding a correlation outside the range −1 to 1.
• Confusing independent and mutually exclusive events. You should spend a sufficient amount
of time studying the distinction between these.
You should get familiar with the logical thinking needed to answer the first part of Question 1.
2
When there is no evidence to reject a null hypothesis it does not mean that there is evidence to
accept it.
You should have a clear understanding of conditional probabilities.
Examination revision strategy
Many candidates are disappointed to find that their examination performance is poorer than they
expected. This may be due to a number of reasons, but one particular failing is ‘question
spotting’, that is, confining your examination preparation to a few questions and/or topics which
have come up in past papers for the course. This can have serious consequences.
We recognise that candidates might not cover all topics in the syllabus in the same depth, but you
need to be aware that examiners are free to set questions on any aspect of the syllabus. This
means that you need to study enough of the syllabus to enable you to answer the required number of
examination questions.
The syllabus can be found in the Course information sheet available on the VLE. You should read
the syllabus carefully and ensure that you cover sufficient material in preparation for the
examination. Examiners will vary the topics and questions from year to year and may well set
questions that have not appeared in past papers. Examination papers may legitimately include
questions on any topic in the syllabus. So, although past papers can be helpful during your revision,
you cannot assume that topics or specific questions that have come up in past examinations will
occur again.
If you rely on a question-spotting strategy, it is likely you will find yourself in difficulties
when you sit the examination. We strongly advise you not to adopt this strategy.
3
ST104b Statistics 2

ST104b Statistics 2
Important note

references
section.
Comments on specific questions – Zone A
Candidates should answer all FOUR questions: QUESTION 1 of Section A (40 marks) and all
THREE questions from Section B (60 marks in total). Candidates are strongly advised to
divide their time accordingly.
Section A
Answer all parts of question 1 (40 marks).
Question 1
(a) For each one of the statements below say whether the statement is true or false,
justifying your answer.
i. For any three events A, B and C, if P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A) P (B) P (C) then
A, B and C are independent.
ii. For any two random variables X and Y it holds that:
Var(X − Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ).
iii. The event A is independent of Ac .

iv. The product of two unbiased estimators of the same parameter is also an
unbiased estimator of the same parameter.
v. Two fair dice are thrown and let A = {the sum of the dice is 2, 4 or 5} and
B = {the dice show a total score that is even}. The events A and B are
independent.
(10 marks)
4
Reading for this question

For part i., iii. and v., Section 2.9 of the subject guide discusses independence. For part ii.,
Section 5.10.1 defines variances of sums of random variables. For part iv., Section 7.6 defines
the unbiasedness property of estimators.
Approaching the question
i. False. For (full) independence of A, B and C we also require pairwise independence, i.e.
we must also have that P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B), P (A ∩ C) = P (A) P (C) and
P (B ∩ C) = P (B) P (C).
ii. False. For any two random variables X and Y it holds that:
Var(X − Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ) − 2 × Cov(X, Y ).
iii. False. Since the event:
P (A ∩ Ac ) = P (∅) = 0 6= P (A) P (Ac )
in general, then A and Ac are not independent.

iv. False. Since even in the case of independence E(ST ) = E(S) E(T ) 6= θ in general.
v. True. We have P (A) = 8/36 and P (B) = 1/2, whereas P (A ∩ B) = 4/36 hence A and B
are independent.
(b) Explain why we must consider both bias and variance when judging the
performance of an estimator.
(5 marks)

Section 7.6 of the subject guide discusses the bias and variance of estimators.
It is desirable for an estimator to be on average equal to the parameter being estimated,
hence we prefer the bias to be small. We also prefer an estimator to be precise, meaning
that its variance should ideally be small.
(c) The random variable X has the probability density function given by:
(
kx2 for 0 < x < 1
f (x) =
0 otherwise
where k > 0 is a constant.
i. Find the value of k.

(2 marks)
ii. Compute E(X) and Var(X).
(8 marks)

Section 3.7 of the subject guide considers continuous random variables.
R
i. Since f (x) dx = 1, we have:
1 1
kx3
Z
k
kx2 dx = = =1
0 3 0 3
and so k = 3.
5
ST104b Statistics 2
ii. We have: 1
1 1
3x4
Z Z
3 3
E(X) = x f (x) dx = 3x dx = =
0 0 4 0 4
and: 1
1 1
3x5
Z Z
3
E(X 2 ) = x2 f (x) dx = 3x4 dx = = .
0 0 5 0 5
Hence: 2
3 3 3
Var(X) = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2 = − = = 0.0375.
5 4 80
(d) Suppose that 10 people are seated in a random manner in a row of 10 lecture
theatre seats. What is the probability that two particular people, A and B, will
be seated next to each other?
(5 marks)

Section 2.8 of the subject guide explains classical probability and counting rules.
There are 10

2 ways in which A and B can choose their seats, of which 9 are pairs of
adjacent seats. Therefore, using the total probability formula, the probability that A and B
are adjacent is:
9 1
10 = 5 .

2
(e) A person tried by a three-judge panel is declared guilty if at least two judges
cast votes of guilty (i.e. a majority verdict). Suppose that when the defendant is
in fact guilty, each judge will independently vote guilty with probability 0.9,
whereas when the defendant is not guilty (i.e. innocent), the probability of
voting guilty drops to 0.25. Suppose 70% of defendants are guilty.
i. Compute the probability that judge 1 votes guilty.
(2 marks)
ii. Given that both judge 1 and judge 2 vote not guilty, compute the probability
that judge 3 votes guilty.
(4 marks)

Section 2.9 of the subject guide covers conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem.
i. Judge 1 can either correctly vote guilty a guilty defendant, or incorrectly vote guilty a
not guilty defendant. Therefore, the probability is given by:
0.9 × 0.7 + 0.25 × 0.3 = 0.7050.
ii. This conditional probability is given by:
P (Judge 3 votes guilty | Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)

P (Judge 3 votes guilty, and Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)
=
P (Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)
0.7 × 0.9 × (0.1)2 + 0.3 × 0.25 × (0.75)2
=
0.7 × (0.1)2 + 0.3 × (0.75)2
= 0.2759.
6
(f ) Find P (Y ≥ 2) when Y follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 10

and π = 0.25.
(4 marks)

Section 4.6.3 of the subject guide introduces the binomial distribution.
Since Y ∼ Bin(10, 0.25), then we have:
P (Y ≥ 2) = 1 − P (Y = 0) − P (Y = 1) = 1 − (0.75)10 − 10 × 0.25 × (0.75)9 = 0.7560.
Section B
Answer all three questions from this section.
Question 2
(a) The teams Ajax and Bayern Munich are meeting in an important football
match. Based on previous encounters and current form, the probabilities of the
various scores are given in the table below, where A and B denote the numbers
of goals scored by Ajax and Bayern Munich, respectively. It is believed that the
probabilities of either team scoring 4 or more goals are so small that these can
be considered to be zero.
A
Goals 0 1 2 3
0 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
B 1 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.03
2 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05
3 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.02
i. Determine the marginal distributions of A and B.

(2 marks)
ii. Find the conditional distribution of B given that A = 2.
(3 marks)
iii. What is the probability that the game ends in a draw?
(2 marks)
iv. George places a bet such that he wins £5 if Ajax beats Bayern Munich and
he loses £1 otherwise. Is he expected to make a profit? Justify your answer.
(3 marks)

Sections 5.6 and 5.7 of the subject guide relate to discrete bivariate distributions.
i. Summing the relevant probabilities yields:
A=a 0 1 2 3
P (A = a) 0.40 0.28 0.19 0.13
Similarly:
B=b 0 1 2 3
P (B = b) 0.18 0.28 0.27 0.27
7
ST104b Statistics 2
ii. The conditional distribution of B given A = 2 is given by:

B = b|A = 2 0 1 2 3
P (B = b | A = 2) 4/19 5/19 5/19 5/19
iii. The probability the game ends in a draw is given by:
P (A = 0, B = 0) + P (A = 1, B = 1) + P (A = 2, B = 2) + P (A = 3, B = 3) = 0.21.
iv. George expects to win £5 with probability:
P (A = 1, B = 0) + P (A = 2, B = 0) + P (A = 3, B = 0)
+ P (A = 2, B = 1) + P (A = 3, B = 1) + P (A = 3, B = 2)
= 0.25
and he expects to lose his £1 with probability 0.75. Therefore, he is expected to make a
profit of:
5 × 0.25 − 1 × 0.75 = £0.50.
(b) Suppose that you are given independent observations y1 , y2 and y3 such that:
y1 = α + β + ε 1
y2 = α + 2β + ε2
y3 = α + 4β + ε3 .
The random variables εi , for i = 1, 2, 3, are normally distributed with a mean of

0 and a variance of 1.
i. Find the least squares estimators of the parameters α and β, and verify that
they are unbiased estimators.
(7 marks)
ii. Calculate the variance of the estimator of α.
(3 marks)

Section 7.8 of the subject guide explains least squares estimation, while Sample examination
question 5 in Chapter 7 is a similar question.
i. We have to minimise:
3
X
S= ε2i = (y1 − α − β)2 + (y2 − α − 2β)2 + (y3 − α − 4β)2 .
i=1
We have:
∂S
= −2(y1 − α − β) − 2(y2 − α − 2β) − 2(y3 − α − 4β)
∂α
= 2(3α + 7β − (y1 + y2 + y3 ))
and:
∂S
= −2(y1 − α − β) − 4(y2 − α − 2β) − 8(y3 − α − 4β)
∂β
= 2(7α + 21β − (y1 + 2y2 + 4y3 )).
8
The least squares estimators α

b and βb are the solutions of the equations ∂S/∂α = 0 and
∂S/∂β = 0. Hence:
3b
α + 7βb = y1 + y2 + y3 and 7b
α + 21βb = y1 + 2y2 + 4y3 .
Solving yields:
−4y1 − y2 + 5y3 2y1 + y2 − y3
βb = and α
b= .
14 2
They are unbiased estimators since:
1
E(β)
b = (−4α − 4β − α − 2β + 5α + 20β) = β
14
and:
1
E(b
α) = (2α + 2β + α + 2β − α − 4β) = α.
2
ii. We have, by independence:
2 2
2 1 1 3
Var(b
α) = 1 + + = .
2 2 2
Question 3
(a) Three call centre workers were being monitored for the average number of calls
they answer per daily shift. Worker A answered a total of 187 calls in 4 days.
Worker B answered a total of 347 calls in 6 days. Worker C answered a total of
461 calls in 10 days. Note that these figures
P 2 are total calls, not daily averages.
The sum of the squares of all 20 days, xi , is 50915.
i. Construct a one-way analysis of variance table. (You may exclude the
p-value.)
(7 marks)
ii. Would you say there is a difference between the average daily calls answered
of the three workers? Justify your answer using a 5% significance level.
(3 marks)

Section 10.7 of the subject guide concerns one-way analysis of variance.
i. The sample means are 187/4 = 46.75, 347/6 = 57.83 and 461/10 = 46.1 for A, B and C,
respectively. We will perform one-way ANOVA. We calculate the overall sample mean to
be:
187 + 347 + 461
= 49.75.
20
We can now calculate the sum of squares between workers. This is:
4 × (46.75 − 49.75)2 + 6 × (57.83 − 49.75)2 + 10 × (46.1 − 49.75)2 = 561.27.
The total sum of squares is:
50915 − 20 × (49.75)2 = 1413.75.
Here is the ANOVA table:
Source Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F statistic

Worker 2 561.27 280.64 5.60
Error 17 852.48 50.15
Total 19 1413.75
9
ST104b Statistics 2
ii. At the 5% significance level, the critical value is F0.05, 2, 17 = 3.59. Since 3.59 < 5.60, we
reject H0 : µA = µB = µC and conclude that there is evidence of a difference in the
average daily calls answered of the three workers.
(b) Suppose that one observation is taken from the geometric distribution:
(
(1 − π)x−1 π for x = 1, 2, . . .
p(x; π) =
0 otherwise
to test H0 : π = 0.3 vs. H1 : π > 0.3. The null hypothesis is rejected if x ≥ 4.
i. What is the probability that a Type II error will be committed when the
true parameter value is π = 0.4?
(4 marks)
ii. What is the probability that a Type I error will be committed?
(4 marks)
iii. If x = 4, what is the p-value of the test?
(2 marks)

Section 9.10 of the subject guide defines the different types of errors in hypothesis testing.
i. We have:
P (Type II error) = P (not reject H0 | H1 ) = P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.4)

3
X x−1
= (1 − 0.4) × 0.4
x=1
= 0.784.
ii. We have:
P (Type I error) = P (reject H0 | H0 ) = 1 − P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.3)

3
X x−1
=1− (1 − 0.3) × 0.3
x=1
= 0.343.
iii. The p-value is P (X ≥ 4 | π = 0.3) = 0.343.
Question 4
(a) A random sample {X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn } is drawn from the following probability

distribution: 2
λ2x e−λ
p(x; λ) = , for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
x!
and p(x; λ) = 0 for all other values of x, with λ > 0.
i. Derive the maximum likelihood estimator of λ.

(8 marks)
3
ii. State the maximum likelihood estimator of θ = λ .
(2 marks)
10

Section 7.9 of the subject guide covers maximum likelihood estimation.
i. By independence, the likelihood function is:

n
P
n 2 2 Xi 2
Y λ2Xi e−λ λ i=1 e−nλ
L(λ) = = n .
Xi ! Q
i=1 Xi !
i=1
The log-likelihood function is:

n
! n
!
X Y
l(λ) = ln L(λ) = 2 Xi (ln λ) − nλ2 − ln Xi ! .
i=1 i=1
Differentiating:
n n
Xi − 2nλ2
P P
2 Xi 2
d i=1 i=1
l(λ) = − 2nλ = .
dλ λ λ
Setting to zero, we re-arrange for the estimator:
n
P 1/2
n
X Xi
b2 = 0 b =  i=1 = X̄ 1/2 .
 
2 Xi − 2nλ ⇒ λ  n


i=1
ii. By the invariance principle of maximum likelihood estimators:
b3 = X̄ 3/2 .
θb = λ
(b) X1 , X2 , X3 and X4 are independent random variables and each is normally

distributed with a mean of 0 and a variance of 3. Use the statistical tables
provided to derive the value of k in each of the following:
i. P (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 < k) = 0.99.

(3 marks)
ii. P (X12 + X22 < 99(X32 + X42 )) = k.
(3 marks)
p
iii. P X1 < k X22 + X32 = 0.01.
(4 marks)

Section 6.11 of the subject guide introduces common sampling distributions of statistics.
i. We have (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 )/3 ∼ χ24 , hence:

k
P (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 < k) = P X< = 0.99
3
where X ∼ χ24 . Therefore, k/3 = 13.277, hence k = 39.831.
11
ST104b Statistics 2
ii. We have (Xi2 + Xj2 )/3 ∼ χ22 for i 6= j, hence:
(X12 + X22 )/(3 × 2)

P (X12 + X22 < 99(X32 + X42 )) =P < 99
(X32 + X42 )/(3 × 2)
= P (F < 99)
=k
where F ∼ F2, 2 . Hence k = 0.99.

iii. We have (X22 + X32 )/3 ∼ χ22 , hence:
√ !
√

X1 / 3
q
P X1 < k X22 + X32 = P p < 2k
(X22 + X32 )/(3 × 2)
√
= P (T < 2k)
= 0.01
√
where T ∼ t2 . Therefore, 2k = −6.965, hence k = −4.925.
12

ST104b Statistics 2
Important note

references
section.
Comments on specific questions – Zone B
Candidates should answer all FOUR questions: QUESTION 1 of Section A (40 marks) and all
THREE questions from Section B (60 marks in total). Candidates are strongly advised to
divide their time accordingly.
Section A
Answer all parts of question 1 (40 marks).
Question 1
(a) For each one of the statements below say whether the statement is true or false,
justifying your answer.
i. For any three events A, B and C, if A is independent of B, B is independent
of C and A is independent of C, then the three events are independent.
ii. If A and B are two events with P (A) > 0, P (B) > 0 and such that
P (B | A) > P (B), then it holds that P (A | B) > P (A).
iii. If A, B and C are three events such that A ∩ B ∩ C = ∅ then:
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C).
iv. The average of two unbiased estimators of the same parameter is also an
unbiased estimator of the same parameter.
v. Two fair dice are thrown and let A = {the sum of the dice is 9, 10 or 12}
and B = {the dice show a total score that is odd}. The events A and B are
independent.
(10 marks)
13
ST104b Statistics 2

For part i., ii. and v., Section 2.9 of the subject guide discusses independence and
conditional probability. For part iii., Section 2.7.1 covers mutually exclusive events. For part
iv., Section 7.6 defines the unbiasedness property of estimators.
i. False. For (full) independence of A, B and C we also require
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A) P (B) P (C).
ii. True. If P (B | A) > P (B) we know that P (B ∩ A) > P (A) P (B) and hence:
P (A ∩ B)
P (A | B) = > P (A).
P (B)
iii. False. We have:
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (A ∩ C) − P (B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C).
iv. True. If θ is the parameter to be estimated, then:

S+T E(S) + E(T )
E = = θ.
2 2
v. True. We have P (A) = 8/36 and P (B) = 1/2, whereas P (A ∩ B) = 4/36 hence A and B
are independent.
(b) Briefly describe the concepts of significance level and power of a hypothesis
test. How is the former linked to the p-value of a hypothesis test?
(5 marks)

Section 9.7 of the subject guide discusses significance levels and p-values, while power is
defined in Section 9.10.
The significance level is the probability of making a Type I error (incorrectly rejecting the
correct H0 ) and the power of a hypothesis test is one minus the probability of a Type II
error (not rejecting a false H0 ). We reject H0 when the p-value is less than or equal to the
significance level.
(c) The random variable X has the probability density function given by:
(
kx4 for 0 < x < 1
f (x) =
0 otherwise
where k > 0 is a constant.
i. Find the value of k.

(2 marks)
ii. Compute E(X) and Var(X).
(8 marks)

Section 3.7 of the subject guide considers continuous random variables.
14

R
i. Since f (x) dx = 1, we have:
1 1
kx5
Z
k
kx4 dx = = =1
0 5 0 5
and so k = 5.
ii. We have: 1
1 1
5x6
Z Z
5 5
E(X) = x f (x) dx = 5x dx = =
0 0 6 0 6
and: 1
1 1
5x7
Z Z
2 2 6 5
E(X ) = x f (x) dx = 5x dx = = .
0 0 7 0 7
Hence: 2
5 5
Var(X) = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2 = − = 0.0198.
7 6
(d) Suppose that 20 people are seated in a random manner in a row of 20 lecture
theatre seats. What is the probability that two particular people, A and B, will
be seated next to each other?
(5 marks)

Section 2.8 of the subject guide explains classical probability and counting rules.
There are 20

2 ways in which A and B can choose their seats, of which 19 are pairs of
adjacent seats. Therefore, using the total probability formula, the probability that A and B
are adjacent is:
19 1
20 = 10 .

2
(e) A person tried by a three-judge panel is declared guilty if at least two judges
cast votes of guilty (i.e. a majority verdict). Suppose that when the defendant is
in fact guilty, each judge will independently vote guilty with probability 0.8,
whereas when the defendant is not guilty (i.e. innocent), the probability of
voting guilty drops to 0.15. Suppose 80% of defendants are guilty.
i. Compute the probability that judge 1 votes guilty.
(2 marks)
ii. Given that both judge 1 and judge 2 vote not guilty, compute the probability
that judge 3 votes guilty.
(4 marks)

Section 2.9 of the subject guide covers conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem.
i. Judge 1 can either correctly vote guilty a guilty defendant, or incorrectly vote guilty a
not guilty defendant. Therefore, the probability is given by:
0.8 × 0.8 + 0.15 × 0.2 = 0.67.
15
ST104b Statistics 2
ii. This conditional probability is given by:
P (Judge 3 votes guilty | Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)

P (Judge 3 votes guilty, and Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)
=
P (Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)
0.8 × 0.8 × (0.2)2 + 0.2 × 0.15 × (0.85)2
=
0.8 × (0.2)2 + 0.2 × (0.85)2
= 0.2678.
(f ) Find P (Y ≥ 2) when Y follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 1.

(4 marks)

Section 4.6.3 of the subject guide introduces the binomial distribution.

Since Y ∼ Poisson(1), then we have:
P (Y ≥ 2) = 1 − P (Y = 0) − P (Y = 1) = 1 − e−1 − e−1 = 1 − 2e−1 .
Section B
Answer all three questions from this section.
Question 2
(a) The teams Arsenal and Bournemouth are meeting in an important football
match. Based on previous encounters and current form, the probabilities of the
various scores are given in the table below, where A and B denote the numbers
of goals scored by Arsenal and Bournemouth, respectively. It is believed that
the probabilities of either team scoring 4 or more goals are so small that these
can be considered to be zero.
A
Goals 0 1 2 3
0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.10
B 1 0.02 0.07 0.15 0.13
2 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05
3 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
i. Determine the marginal distributions of A and B.

(2 marks)
ii. Find the conditional distribution of A given that B = 2.
(3 marks)
iii. What is the probability that the game ends in a draw?
(2 marks)
iv. Stephanie places a bet such that she wins £5 if Bournemouth beats Arsenal
and she loses £1 otherwise. Is she expected to make a profit? Justify your
answer.
(3 marks)
16

Sections 5.6 and 5.7 of the subject guide relate to discrete bivariate distributions.
i. Summing the relevant probabilities yields:
A=a 0 1 2 3
P (A = a) 0.10 0.24 0.37 0.29
Similarly:
B=b 0 1 2 3
P (B = b) 0.40 0.37 0.17 0.06
ii. The conditional distribution of A given B = 2 is given by:
A = a|B = 2 0 1 2 3
P (A = a | B = 2) 2/17 5/17 5/17 5/17
iii. The probability the game ends in a draw is given by:
P (A = 0, B = 0) + P (A = 1, B = 1) + P (A = 2, B = 2) + P (A = 3, B = 3) = 0.18.
iv. Stephanie expects to win £5 with probability:
P (B = 1, A = 0) + P (B = 2, A = 0) + P (B = 3, A = 0)
+ P (B = 2, A = 1) + P (B = 3, A = 1) + P (B = 3, A = 2)
= 0.14
and she expects to lose her £1 with probability 0.86. Therefore, she is expected to make
a loss of:
5 × 0.14 − 1 × 0.86 = −£0.16.
(b) Suppose that you are given independent observations y1 , y2 and y3 such that:
y1 = α + 2β + ε1
y2 = α + β + ε 2
y3 = α + 4β + ε3 .
The random variables εi , for i = 1, 2, 3, are normally distributed with a mean of

0 and a variance of 1.
i. Find the least squares estimators of the parameters α and β, and verify that
they are unbiased estimators.
(7 marks)
ii. Calculate the variance of the estimator of α.
(3 marks)

Section 7.8 of the subject guide explains least squares estimation, while Sample examination
question 5 in Chapter 7 is a similar question.
i. We have to minimise:
3
X
S= ε2i = (y1 − α − 2β)2 + (y2 − α − β)2 + (y3 − α − 4β)2 .
i=1
17
ST104b Statistics 2
We have:
∂S
= −2(y1 − α − 2β) − 2(y2 − α − β) − 2(y3 − α − 4β)
∂α
= 2(3α + 7β − (y1 + y2 + y3 ))
and:
∂S
= −4(y1 − α − 2β) − 2(y2 − α − β) − 8(y3 − α − 4β)
∂β
= 2(7α + 21β − (2y1 + y2 + 4y3 )).
The least squares estimators α

b and βb are the solutions of the equations ∂S/∂α = 0 and
∂S/∂β = 0. Hence:
3b
α + 7βb = y1 + y2 + y3 and 7b
α + 21βb = 2y1 + y2 + 4y3 .
Solving yields:
−y1 − 4y2 + 5y3 y1 + 2y2 − y3
βb = and α
b= .
14 2
They are unbiased estimators since:
1
E(β)
b = (−α − 2β − 4α − 4β + 5α + 20β) = β
14
and:
1
E(b
α) = (α + 2β + 2α + 2β − α − 4β) = α.
2
ii. We have, by independence:

2 2
1 1 3
Var(b
α) = + 12 + = .
2 2 2
Question 3
(a) Three call centre workers were being monitored for the average number of calls
they answer per daily shift. Worker A answered a total of 321 calls in 6 days.
Worker B answered a total of 548 calls in 9 days. Worker C answered a total of
354 calls in 8 days. Note that these figures
P 2 are total calls, not daily averages.
The sum of the squares of all 23 days, xi , is 66901.
i. Construct a one-way analysis of variance table. (You may exclude the

p-value.)
(7 marks)
ii. Would you say there is a difference between the average daily calls answered
of the three workers? Justify your answer using a 5% significance level.
(3 marks)

Section 10.7 of the subject guide concerns one-way analysis of variance.
18

i. The sample means are 321/6 = 53.5, 548/9 = 60.89 and 354/8 = 44.25 for A, B and C,
respectively. We will perform one-way ANOVA. We calculate the overall sample mean to
be:
321 + 548 + 354
= 53.17.
23
We can now calculate the sum of squares between workers. This is:
6 × (53.5 − 53.17)2 + 9 × (60.89 − 53.17)2 + 8 × (44.25 − 53.17)2 = 1173.57.
The total sum of squares is:
66901 − 23 × (53.17)2 = 1878.88.
Here is the ANOVA table:
Source Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F statistic

Worker 2 1173.57 586.79 16.64
Error 20 705.31 35.27
Total 22 1878.88
ii. At the 5% significance level, the critical value is F0.05, 2, 20 = 3.49. Since 3.49 < 16.64, we
reject H0 : µA = µB = µC and conclude that there is evidence of a difference in the
average daily calls answered of the three workers.
(b) Suppose that one observation is taken from the geometric distribution:
(
(1 − π)x−1 π for x = 1, 2, . . .
p(x; π) =
0 otherwise
to test H0 : π = 0.4 vs. H1 : π > 0.4. The null hypothesis is rejected if x ≥ 4.
i. What is the probability that a Type II error will be committed when the
true parameter value is π = 0.6?
(4 marks)
ii. What is the probability that a Type I error will be committed?
(4 marks)
iii. If x = 4, what is the p-value of the test?
(2 marks)

Section 9.10 of the subject guide defines the different types of errors in hypothesis testing.
i. We have:
P (Type II error) = P (not reject H0 | H1 ) = P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.6)
3
X x−1
= (1 − 0.6) × 0.6
x=1
= 0.936.
ii. We have:
P (Type I error) = P (reject H0 | H0 ) = 1 − P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.4)
3
X x−1
=1− (1 − 0.4) × 0.4
x=1
= 0.216.
iii. The p-value is P (X ≥ 4 | π = 0.4) = 0.216.
19
ST104b Statistics 2
Question 4
(a) A random sample {X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn } is drawn from the following probability

distribution: 2
λ2x e−λ
p(x; λ) = , for x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
x!
and p(x; λ) = 0 for all other values of x, with λ > 0.
i. Derive the maximum likelihood estimator of λ.

(8 marks)
4
ii. State the maximum likelihood estimator of θ = λ .
(2 marks)

Section 7.9 of the subject guide covers maximum likelihood estimation.
i. By independence, the likelihood function is:
n
P
n 2 2 Xi 2
Y λ2Xi e−λ λ i=1 e−nλ
L(λ) = = n .
Xi ! Q
i=1 Xi !
i=1
The log-likelihood function is:

n
! n
!
X Y
l(λ) = ln L(λ) = 2 Xi (ln λ) − nλ2 − ln Xi ! .
i=1 i=1
Differentiating:
n n
Xi − 2nλ2
P P
2 Xi 2
d
l(λ) = i=1 − 2nλ = i=1
.
dλ λ λ
Setting to zero, we re-arrange for the estimator:
n
P 1/2
n
X Xi
b2 = 0 b =  i=1 = X̄ 1/2 .
 
2 Xi − 2nλ ⇒ λ  n


i=1
ii. By the invariance principle of maximum likelihood estimators:

b4 = X̄ 2 .
θb = λ
(b) X1 , X2 , X3 and X4 are independent random variables and each is normally

distributed with a mean of 0 and a variance of 3. Use the statistical tables
provided to derive the value of k in each of the following:
i. P (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 > k) = 0.05.

(3 marks)
ii. P (X12 + X22 < 19(X32 + X42 )) = k.
(3 marks)
p
iii. P X1 < k X22 + X32 = 0.01.
(4 marks)
20

Section 6.11 of the subject guide introduces common sampling distributions of statistics.
i. We have (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 )/3 ∼ χ24 , hence:

k
P (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 < k) = P X> = 0.05
3
where X ∼ χ24 . Therefore, k/3 = 9.488, hence k = 28.464.

ii. We have (Xi2 + Xj2 )/3 ∼ χ22 for i 6= j, hence:
(X12 + X22 )/(3 × 2)

P (X12 + X22 < 19(X32 + X42 )) =P < 19
(X32 + X42 )/(3 × 2)
= P (F < 19)
=k
where F ∼ F2, 2 . Hence k = 0.95.

iii. We have (X22 + X32 )/3 ∼ χ22 , hence:
√ !
√

X1 / 3
q
P X1 < k X22 + X32 = P p < 2k
(X22 + X32 )/(3 × 2)
√
= P (T < 2k)
= 0.01
√
where T ∼ t2 . Therefore, 2k = −6.965, hence k = −4.925.
21

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Examiners’ commentaries 2019

Examiners’ commentaries 2019

Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading

Format of the examination

How to prepare for the examination

Key steps to improvement

• Calculating probabilities outside the range 0 to 1. Should that happen because of a

You should have a clear understanding of conditional probabilities.

Examination revision strategy

Examiners’ commentaries 2019

Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading

Comments on specific questions – Zone A

Answer all parts of question 1 (40 marks).

Var(X − Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ).

iii. The event A is independent of Ac .

Reading for this question

Var(X − Y ) = Var(X) + Var(Y ) − 2 × Cov(X, Y ).

iii. False. Since the event:

P (A ∩ Ac ) = P (∅) = 0 6= P (A) P (Ac )

in general, then A and Ac are not independent.

Reading for this question

where k > 0 is a constant.

i. Find the value of k.

Reading for this question

Reading for this question

Reading for this question

0.9 × 0.7 + 0.25 × 0.3 = 0.7050.

ii. This conditional probability is given by:

P (Judge 3 votes guilty | Judges 1 and 2 vote not guilty)

(f ) Find P (Y ≥ 2) when Y follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 10

Reading for this question

P (Y ≥ 2) = 1 − P (Y = 0) − P (Y = 1) = 1 − (0.75)10 − 10 × 0.25 × (0.75)9 = 0.7560.

Answer all three questions from this section.

i. Determine the marginal distributions of A and B.

Reading for this question

ii. The conditional distribution of B given A = 2 is given by:

iii. The probability the game ends in a draw is given by:

iv. George expects to win £5 with probability:

The random variables εi , for i = 1, 2, 3, are normally distributed with a mean of

Reading for this question

The least squares estimators α

Reading for this question

4 × (46.75 − 49.75)2 + 6 × (57.83 − 49.75)2 + 10 × (46.1 − 49.75)2 = 561.27.

The total sum of squares is:

50915 − 20 × (49.75)2 = 1413.75.

Here is the ANOVA table:

Source Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F statistic

to test H0 : π = 0.3 vs. H1 : π > 0.3. The null hypothesis is rejected if x ≥ 4.

Reading for this question

P (Type II error) = P (not reject H0 | H1 ) = P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.4)

P (Type I error) = P (reject H0 | H0 ) = 1 − P (X ≤ 3 | π = 0.3)

iii. The p-value is P (X ≥ 4 | π = 0.3) = 0.343.

(a) A random sample {X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn } is drawn from the following probability

i. Derive the maximum likelihood estimator of λ.

Reading for this question

Approaching the question

i. By independence, the likelihood function is:

The log-likelihood function is:

ii. By the invariance principle of maximum likelihood estimators:

(b) X1 , X2 , X3 and X4 are independent random variables and each is normally

i. P (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 < k) = 0.99.

Reading for this question

Approaching the question