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From Earthquake Hazard to Loss Estimates

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 Earthquake Scenarios
From Earthquake Hazard to Loss Estimates
D. Fäh
Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zürich

Keywords: earthquake hazard, risk, microzonation, scenarios, damage, loss, site-effects, GIS

Introduction
It is now well known, and widely accepted amongst the earthquake engineering community, that the
effects of surface geology on seismic motion exist and can be large, and that the effect of building
quality is crucial when buildings have to sustain strong ground motion during earthquakes.
Accounting for such effects in seismic regulations, land use planning or design of critical facilities
is therefore a goal of earthquake risk reduction programs. The question that arises is how to achieve
that goal in a both reliable and cost-efficient way. This question has been tackled in many
microzonation, vulnerability and risk studies. A review of the currently used techniques and
practices of zonation and microzonation on a worldwide basis has been compiled by Mayer-Rosa
and Jimenez (1999). Case studies have provided possible approaches. Examples of such studies are
the risk and vulnerability assessments for the cities of Barcelona (Barbat et al., 1996; Jimenez et al.,
1999), Basel (Fäh et al., 1997; Noack et al., 1997; Fäh et al., 1999), Bogota (UPES, 1997), Catania
(Faccioli et al., 1997), Istanbul (Erdik, 1994), Mexico City (Esteva, 1997), Nice (Bard et al., 1995),
Quito (Fernandez et al., 1994), San Francisco (Borcherdt R.D., 1997), and Tokyo (BCCA, 1995).

Beside the more research-oriented case studies there have been two major programs to develop
methodologies for risk and hazard assessment. A number of cities worldwide are engaged in risk
modeling in the international program RADIUS, an initiative of the UN/International Decade for
Natural Disaster Reduction with financial assistance from the Japanese Government
(http://geohaz.org/radius/). It aims to promote worldwide activities for reduction of seismic
disasters in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. The initiative plans to develop
common methodologies for seismic risk assessment of urban areas. Seismic damage scenarios and
risk management plans are being developed as case studies in nine cities worldwide, namely, Addis
Ababa (Ethiopia), Antofagasta (Chile), Bandung (Indonesia), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Izmir (Turkey),
Tashkent (Uzbekistan), Skopje (TFYR Macedonia), Tijuana (Mexico), and Zigong (China). The
second program is organized by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), through
a cooperative agreement with the National Institute of Building Sciences. The agency has developed
a standardized, US-nationally applicable earthquake loss estimation methodology called "HAZUS"
(http://www.fema.gov/hazus/). The methodology estimates the consequences of a scenario
earthquake to a city or region. The resulting loss estimate generally describes the scale and extent of
damage and disruption that may result from potential earthquakes.

This paper provides some aspects of different methodologies and possible difficulties in damage
and loss estimates. It will focus on the seismological aspects and will treat only briefly the aspects
of direct and indirect losses. In the second part an example of a damage scenario for the Basel area
is presented.

1
 Figure 1. Damage and loss estimation methodology

Damage and loss estimation methodology

A comprehensive damage and loss estimation methodology can be organized in modules as shown
in Figure 1. In general, each of the modules is required for a study. As indicated by the arrows in
the figure, the modules are interdependent with the output of one module acting as input to another.
Many different techniques exist for estimating at least some aspects of the required output at each
module. The cost of the methods varies a lot from one to another and the input information they
require has different levels of detail. As a consequence, damage and loss studies require at first a
methodological choice, depending on the available information, budget, and on the actual risk level
of the zone under study. A modular approach permits both estimates based on simplified models
and limited data, as well as refined estimates based on extensive data and detailed analysis.
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are the tool to manage and map the different information
at regional and local scale.

One of the most difficult tasks in earthquake scenario modeling is the treatment of uncertainty. Each
of the modules has an uncertainty and natural variability of the input and output parameters, which
often is not quantified explicitly. A possible way to handle this problem is the modeling with a
systematic variation of the model parameters that allows an evaluation of the parameter sensitivity
and uncertainty.

2
With damage and loss estimation methodologies, engineers and planners can develop strategies for
earthquake hazard mitigation. The most unfavorable site-conditions and areas, as well as the most
vulnerable buildings and lifelines can be identified from the outputs of the different modules. This
allows for actions before an earthquake occurs, for example the retrofitting of buildings and
lifelines, and long-term urban planning. There is also an educational value: earthquake scenarios
can demonstrate possible effects of earthquakes, which help to develop strategies for post-event
response and recovery.

Module 1: Regional ground motion

The methodology starts with the definition of the regional ground motion of a scenario event. This
can be a deterministic scenario event such as the maximum historical earthquake or the maximum
credible earthquake, or it can be an event based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the
region with a given return period. The information needed in this first module includes all the
existing seismological, tectonic and geological information. The scales vary between 1/25000 and
1/500'000, depending on the available existing information. The scenario earthquake is defined
from this information by its location (distance, source depth), size (magnitude, geometry), and the
type of earthquake (source mechanism), as well as the wave attenuation (crustal structure) from the
seismic source to the region under study. A special treatment is required for areas where surface
faulting can occur during large earthquake. Surface faulting is the offset or rupturing of the ground
surface by differential movement across a fault during an earthquake. This phenomenon is typical
limited to a linear zone along the surface. For such zones, expected permanent displacement has to
be mapped on the faults. In most cases, the active faults are not known and the mapping of
permanent displacements remains very hypothetical.

A methodology to estimate regional ground motion can use macroseismic intensities or quantitative
definitions of ground motions. Modern Intensity scales such as the European Macroseismic Scale
EMS98 (Grünthal, 1998) do not describe ground motion but include directly a description of
damage. A qualitative aspect deals with the type of the buildings and its vulnerability; and a
quantitative aspect with the probability of different grades of damage occurring. The advantage of
macroseismic intensities is the possibility to use in a straight-forward way the historical earthquake
descriptions, which define the prominent part of an earthquake catalogue in areas such as
Switzerland with moderate to low seismicity (http://seismo.ethz.ch/products/catalogs/mecos/). The
example in the second part of this paper will be based on this concept.

Quantitative engineering evaluation of single buildings requires the definition of ground shaking.
Different ground motion parameters are used. The most simple parameter is peak ground
acceleration (PGA) which in most cases is not sufficient to account for the duration and complexity
of ground shaking. Advanced methodologies characterize ground shaking using Fourier amplitude
spectra, standard response spectra or complete waveforms. The regional ground motion is generally
defined for rock conditions, without taking into account the effect of unconsolidated soils,
subsurface bedrock topography and surface topography. Depending on the input parameters for the
second module (site-effect), the ground motion is either defined at the free surface (ground motion
on bedrock) or at the baseline between bedrock and soils (incident wave-field).

Ground motion on bedrock can be estimated with two different methods, attenuation relations based
on observed ground motion or quantitative estimation with strong-motion simulations for specific
events. Many attenuation relations exist, and the choice of the appropriate relations should be based
on their applicability to the selected magnitude and mechanism of the scenario event, and to the
bedrock conditions in the region of the study. For Switzerland several relations could be applied,
some of them are those given by Ambraseys and Bommer (1991), Smit (1996), Ambraseys et al.
(1996), and Bay et al. (2000). The spectral method used in Bay et al. (2000) has been developed for
applications in areas of low seismicity, with a dataset of mainly small events. The advantage of the

3
method is the possibility to separate wave attenuation in the earth from the source and the site
effects (Figure 2).

Strong-motion simulation is another way to obtain estimates of ground motion. Appropriate records
can be computed with hybrid schemes that are deterministic at low frequencies and stochastic at
high frequencies. Time histories can be generated whose wave composition, duration, and
frequency content reflect the characteristics of the seismic source and the propagation path.
Computational methods have one important advantage over instrumental methods: there is no need
to wait for an earthquake to obtain the recordings. In many seismic zones such as in Switzerland,
strong earthquakes occur rarely, or the recorded events do not have sufficiently high magnitudes to
allow estimates of expected strong ground motion. There are mainly weak motion records available,
which in their frequency content can scarcely represent a strong event. The major difficulty in such
numerical modeling is the definition of a realistic input model for the source and the path, that allow
a realistic deterministic modeling.

Figure 2. Vertical and horizontal components of broadband and short period data are used to study
ground motion attenuation for the Fourier spectra and peak filtered ground velocities in the
frequency range of 1-10Hz for the area of Switzerland (from Bay et al. (2000)). The wave
attenuation in the crust, shown here, is separated from the source and the site effects.

Module 2: Ground Motion amplification

Dynamic ground shaking is the important factor for buildings and is the output of module 2.
Damage is generally larger over soft surface deposits than on bedrock outcrops. This kind of site
effects is especially worth being accounted for, since most of urbanized areas are generally settled
along river valleys over such young, soft, surface deposits. Damaging effects associated with such

4
soft deposits may lead to local intensity increments as large as 2 to 3 degrees (EMS or MSK scale).
The amplitude of these effects has therefore stimulated many instrumental studies (comparing
seismic records obtained at the sediments surface and in the basement rock underneath or on a
nearby bedrock outcrop), as well as a lot of theoretical and numerical investigations based on the
theory of wave propagation in complex media, both aiming at a better understanding and
quantification of these effects. The extreme engineering importance of such amplification effects
has resulted in several review and state-of-the-art papers (Aki, 1988; Aki and Irikura, 1991;
Faccioli, 1991), which the reader is strongly invited to consult for further information.

The fundamental phenomenon responsible for the amplification of motion over soft sediments is the
trapping of seismic waves due to the impedance contrast between sediments and underlying
bedrock. When the structure is horizontally layered (which will be referred to in the following as
1D structures), this trapping affects body waves, which travel up and down in the surface layers.
When the structure is a 2D or 3D structure, i.e., when lateral heterogeneities are present (such as
thickness variations in sediment-filled valleys), this trapping also affects the surface waves, which
develop on these heterogeneities. The interferences between these trapped waves lead to resonance
patterns, the shape and the frequency of which are related with the geometrical and mechanical
characteristics of the structure: they are very simple in the case of 1D media (vertical resonance of
body waves), and more complex in the case of 2D and 3D structures.

It has been often reported after destructive earthquakes in hilly areas that buildings located at hill
tops suffer much more damage than those located at the base. Theoretical and numerical models
predict a systematic amplification of seismic motion at ridge crests, and, more generally, over
"convex" topographies (such as cliff borders), and a correlative de-amplification over "concave"
parts of surface topography, such as foothills.

The research in the field of site-effects has produced several methods to count for the amplification
of ground motion at the local site. The information for this module should include, in particular, the
thickness, geometry and mechanical properties of surface formations. The scales vary between
1/5000 and 1/25000, depending on the available existing information. Different levels of detail can
be included in this module as shown in Figure 3.

For areas, for which information on local soil conditions is available only on a gross geological
scale, attenuation functions can be used that use simple soil conditions discrimination or soil
dependent amplification factors. This is the lowest level of detail to represent amplification of
ground motion. If more geotechnical information is available, ground motion amplification can be
estimated with numerical techniques. First a detailed mapping of the soil conditions (thickness and
composition of the soils from boreholes, water table depth, geotechnical information) is required.
Then in-situ measurements of the soil properties should be used to estimate parameters (seismic
velocities, soil-bedrock interface, quality factor). Shear-wave propagation velocity is the most
important mechanical property of a material with respect to site effects; therefore, different methods
can be applied in order to determine these velocities, including refraction and reflection
measurements, surface wave techniques, and analysis of seismic ambient vibrations. Of special
interest are passive methods that are based on ambient vibrations or microtremors due to their low
costs. These methods can be applied in urban areas where in general it is not possible to carry out
active measurements due to the lack of space for the experimental setup or the impossibility to use
explosion sources.

5
 Figure 3. Levels for microzonation studies.

The highest level of the geotechnical investigation consists of a 3D model of the physical
parameters (maxima, minima and average values of the seismic velocities, densities, thickness,
damping), given with their respective uncertainties. A check of the model parameter can be
performed by comparison with measured fundamental frequencies of resonance of the
unconsolidated soils (Figure 4).

Numerical modeling techniques allow the variability of ground motion and the expected
amplification effects on different soils to be defined. Depending on the known details of the model,
different levels of numerical modeling can be applied to quantify the influence of local soil
conditions on seismic ground motion. The techniques can be based on methodologies with one- and
two-dimensional wave propagation that take or take not into account the combined effects of the
seismic source and the propagation path. Three-dimensional techniques including the seismic
source and complex wave-propagation paths are still under development, and they are actually
limited in the frequency range and the size of the models.

A microzonation with strong motion data can be applied only in the rare cases where the
distribution of instruments is sufficiently dense. Moreover, in many areas of the world, the problem
is (fortunately) that strong earthquakes at a given site are usually not so frequent. This is
particularly the case for low-seismicity areas such as Northern Europe. As a consequence, given the
investment and maintenance costs of such networks, it will probably take several decades before all
the big cities at threat be equipped. An alternative to a permanent installation are portable
instruments which can be deployed for aftershock measurements after strong earthquakes. The
value of single strong motion recordings is that they can be used to verify microzonation methods.

In Switzerland, several microzonation studies have been carried out with the main purpose to apply
various established methods. Referring to Figure 3 these studies have been at intermediate to low
level of sophistication. Three pilot projects have been conducted, dealing with all aspects of seismic

6
hazard assessment. A pilot project in the Canton Obwalden (Swiss project within the International
Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction; Schindler et al., 1993) focused on the geological correlation
of intensity anomalies with local soil conditions, and the regional hazard assessment in the Canton
Obwalden using a geographical information system. This work was motivated by various empirical
correlations between surface geology and seismic intensity increments and a study for some areas in
Switzerland (Fäh, 1985). The project "Earthquake hazard and microzonation in Switzerland"
(NFP31 "Climate Changes and Natural Hazards", Mayer-Rosa et al., 1997) focused on three test
sites, including the eastern Rhine valley, Basel and the Valais, with the purpose of assessing
regional seismic hazard and seismic microzonation. In the Canton of the City of Basel as well as in
the Valais continuing applications could be initiated during the NFP31 project, which resulted for
example in a qualitative microzonation map of the Canton of the City of Basel (Fäh et al., 1997;
Noack et al., 1997; Noack and Fäh, 1999). The SISVAL-IDNDR project (Wagner et al., 1998)
initiated a microzonation study in the Valais; the results of this study are expected to be published
soon. In 1998, the project "Earthquake scenarios for Switzerland" (Fäh et al., 2000) was initiated.
One of the main tasks is the improvement of microzonation methods, especially with respect to
cheap methods to estimate S-wave velocities of the soils.

Figure 4. For the Basel area, the fundamental resonance frequency of the ground has been
determined at about 300 points (small dots 0.3-0.7Hz, medium dots 0.7-1.5Hz, large dots 2Hz and
higher) from the polarization characteristics of ambient vibrations. This information is further used
to verify a detailed 3D model (Kind et al. (2000)).

7
 Module 3: Ground Failure
Permanent ground movements such as surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, lateral
spreading and compaction are important with regard to extended lifeline systems. There are
different effects of strong earthquakes that must be quantitatively investigated for standard seismic
hazard or loss evaluations. Liquefaction is a physical process generated by vibration during strong
earthquakes and is generally restricted to distinct localities leading to ground failure. Liquefaction
causes lateral spreads, and loss of bearing strength. Landslides can be triggered by low levels of
ground motion during an earthquake if the slope is initially unstable. Important types of earthquake-
induced landslides are rock falls and slides of rock fragments that form on steep slopes. Other
effects that have to be recognized in seismic hazard assessment for specific sites are tilting,
uplifting, fracturing, cracking and fissuring, compacting and subsidence.

Large earthquakes in the Alpine area trigger significant, often catastrophic landslides. The two
largest earthquakes since 1850 in Switzerland took place in the Valais: the 1855 Brig event, and the
1946 Sion event. For both events there is an extensive description of the landslides and rock fall
associated to the earthquakes; many individual sites are mentioned for the 1855 event and the 1946
event (see Figure 5), including a photographic record. As to the author's knowledge, no detailed
study exists that treats the problem of earthquake triggering of landslides and rock-fall for the area
of Switzerland.

Figure 5. Macroseismic Intensity map (in EMS98) of the January 25, 1946 Valais earthquake
(E: landslides and rock-fall, H:, terrain uplift, L: snow avalanges, Q: springs stop and start, R:
cracks and fissures in the ground, T: water made turbid, V: flow of springs and rivers affected)
(Modified from Schibler (2000)).

8
 Module 4: Building and Lifeline Inventory
Once the expected ground shaking is estimated for local site conditions, the next step in assessing
earthquake damage is the convolution of vulnerability descriptions expressing the damage
probability of different types of structures with specified levels of ground shaking (Module 4 in
Figure 1). The infrastructure within the study area must be inventoried and classified by building
type (structural system, material, height, special characteristics such as soft stories and level of
symmetry, etc). The classification by occupancy (residential, commercial, etc.) defines the
importance of the building. Key features of the different components of lifelines must be identified.
This includes the systems for electricity, water and gas distribution, transportation, communication,
fire-fighting, rescue and first aid (hospitals).

For each type of structure the damage grade as a function of the ground motion must be defined.
This can be based on simplified methodologies that make use of macroseismic intensities (see
example below), or it can be based on inelastic building capacity that includes both structural and
nonstructural components. More information on this subject can for example be found in a special
issue of Earthquake Spectra (Volume 13, Number 4, 1997).

Module 5,6 and 7: Direct and Induced Damage, and Loss

The direct damage module (Module 5) provides damage estimates for the area of interest, given the
ground motion and ground failure. Estimates can include loss of function of essential facilities and
lifelines. Once the estimates of direct damage are available, induced damage (Module 6) can be
evaluated. This includes damage caused by fires following an earthquake, inundations caused by
failures of dams, or hazardous material that is released. Both direct and indirect damage can lead to
direct losses (Module 7). Module 7 quantifies the cost of repair and replacement of structures and
lifelines, including structural and nonstructural damage, loss to contents and business inventory,
economic losses, and social losses. Indirect economic losses include long-term implications of the
direct impact of the earthquake.

Example for Basel

Damage scenarios for Basel are presented that are based on a microzonation study and the
distribution of buildings in the different districts of the city. Details to this chapter are given in Fäh
et al. (1999). The damage scenario is computed with the following scheme. We assume two
different scenario earthquakes, the first one corresponds to an event with an intensity between VII
and VIII and with a return period of 475 years (90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years)
(Grünthal and Mayer- Rosa, 1998), and the second event simulates the 1356 Basel earthquake with
an Intensity of IX in the city (Mayer-Rosa and Cadiot, 1979). We compute the expected intensity
variations in the different quarters of the city using the results of a microzonation study (Fäh et al. ,
1997; Noack et al., 1997; Noack and Fäh, 2000]) in which it is assumed that the degree of regional
seismic hazard is already known from the probabilistic hazard maps or for deterministic earthquake
scenarios, and expresses an increased or reduced hazard with respect to a regional average. The
increase or reduction due to local site-effects is given in terms of intensity variations in the range of
+/- 1 intensity degree (Figure 6).

9
 15/ 85/ 0
0/ 60/ 40

0/ 75/ 25

0/ 70/ 30

15/ 85/ 0

15/ 85/ 0
40/ 60/ 0 10/ 90/ 0

35/ 65/ 0
40/ 60/ 0

15/ 85/ 0
15/ 85/ 0
60/ 40/ 0

70/ 30/ 0

40/ 60/ 0
35/ 65/ 0

25/ 75/ 0

10/ 90/ 0
Microzonation and Building Types
65/ 35/ 0

Microzonation as +/- one Intensity

-1 - -0.8

-0.8 - -0.6
45/ 55/ 0 The numbers on the map represent the
65/ 35/ 0 -0.6 - -0.5
estimated percentage of building classes
-0.5 - -0.3
per district.
-0.3 - -0.1

-0.1 - 0.1 Building classes: B/ C/ E from EMS98

0.1 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.5

0.5 - 0.6

0.6 - 0.8 0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 Kilometers

35/ 65/ 0
0.8 - 1

Figure 6. Qualitative microzonation map of the city of Basel (from Noack, Fäh and Kruspan, 1999).
The expected amplification corresponds to plus and minus one intensity degree (EMS-scale) from
an average regional intensity. The distribution of the vulnerability classes in the districts are given
in percent.

Using the differentiation of structures in the EMS98 the buildings are classified and the
corresponding vulnerability class assigned. The vulnerability class assigned is the most likely
vulnerability class considering the well-preserved condition of the buildings. Thus, by visual
inspection, the percentage of each vulnerability class in each quarter of the town could be estimated
(Figure 6). Most buildings in Basel belong either to vulnerability class B or C. This straight-forward
classification seems adequate for most parts of the town except the industrial quarters consisting
mainly of special structures which can not be identified by one of the structure types given in the
EMS98. In a first approximation as steel structures, they are assigned to the vulnerability class E,
which is most probably too favorable.

Using the definitions of intensity degrees in the EMS98 a damage matrix for each building class can
be computed such that for each intensity, the percentage of buildings suffering a certain degree of
damage is given. In the EMS98 the quantity of buildings suffering a certain degree of damage is
expressed by the qualitative terms "few", "many" and "most". These statistical elements are broad
terms expressing a range, but for our purpose a single number is assigned expressing the "mean" of
the given range. Only the quantity of buildings suffering the highest degree of damage at a given
intensity are stated in the EMS98; however, the distribution of damage can be supposed to be
normal with an upper and lower bound. At low intensities the quantity of buildings suffering a

10
higher degree of damage is monotonically decreasing, and at high intensities monotonically
increasing. The vulnerability function for each vulnerability class can then be derived from the
probability matrices as a continuous (Figure 7). In a similar manner functions for the percentage of
buildings suffering damage grade four and five are derived. Damage grade four represents very
severe damage, and damage grade five collapse of the building.

The calculated scenarios are a intensity IX earthquake and one of intensity VII - VIII. These
represent the earthquake that occurred in Basel in 1356, and the earthquake with return period of
475 years, which is generally used in building codes. The results are shown in the Figures 8 and 9.
The detailed scenario in Figures 9 and 8 give damage values from five up to twenty percent for the
intensity VII - VIII scenario, while the intensity IX scenario values range from 28 up to 56 percent.
While these are the mean values for the districts, the local values can be larger or smaller and have
twice the scatter. The Intensity VII-VIII scenario shows only few buildings with damage grades 4
and 5, whereas the 1356 scenario draws a rather dramatic picture for many districts in the city.

Figure 7. Mean damage functions derived from the EMS98 scale (Fäh et al., 1999) compared to the
curves given by Coburn and Spence (1992).

Both, microzonation and building type distribution have an effect on the expected damage. This is
illustrated in Figure 9 for the Intensity VII-VIII scenario. If no microzonation and no building
vulnerability classes would be considered a single mean damage percentage for the whole of the
city of Basel would apply. A scenario, which includes only the distribution of building classes
within the city, expresses the average capacity of the buildings in the districts to resist earthquake
ground motion. For the historical part of the center of Basel maximum damage must be expected.
Other districts with high damage are characterized by a high percentage of buildings of
vulnerability class B. The other way in Figure 9 assumes a homogeneous building distribution

11
(vulnerability class B 26%, class C 71%, class E 3%) for the entire city, and accounts for the effects
of the local soil conditions through the microzonation map. The deviations from the full scenario
are rather striking. A clear effect of the local soil conditions are a significant damage increase in the
north-western part of the city, which is not present in the full scenario due to a high percentage of
buildings of vulnerability class C and E. It has to be mentioned that for these quarters the
approximation of the steel structures to the vulnerability class E is probably too favorable.

For the center of the city, building vulnerability and unfavorable soil conditions accumulate to the
high damage grade. As a consequence of our study we conclude that both the variation in building
types and local ground structure significantly affect the mean damage and should be taken into
account in damage scenario modeling.

N
Kleinhueningen

29/9/1

Riehen

31/7/1
W E
Klybeck

34/10/1
S
St. Johann Nord

30/8/1

St. Johann Sued Hirzbrunnen

50/21/4 Rosental 40/12/2

Matthaeus

43/14/2 40/12/1

Clara

49/19/4
Am Ring Nord
Iselin
39/11/1 Altstadt Kleinbasel
48/18/3 Wettstein
55/24/6
39/11/1

Altstadt Grossbasel

56/26/6
Breite
Gotthelf
Am Ring 40/12/1
47/18/3
45/16/3 Vorstaedte

44/15/2

Scenario of an Intensity IX Earthquake

Bachletten

54/24/5 Based on a qualitative microzonation

St. Alban
and the distribution of building types per district
49/19/4
Gundeldingen

45/16/3
mean building damage in percent The districts are labeled with their names.
25 - 30 Below are the percentages of the mean

30 - 35 damage of the buildings, of buildings with

35 - 40 damage Grade four and of buildings with

40 - 45 damage grade five.

45 - 50 Grade 4 means very severe damage

50 - 55 Grade 5 means collapse

Bruderholz
43/15/2 55 - 60
1 0 1 2 3 Kilometers

Figure 8. Damage scenario in Basel assuming an earthquake like the 1356 Basel earthquake with an
Intensity of IX in the city (Fäh et al., 1999).

The numbers given in these damage scenarios must be taken as indicative numbers and can only be
used as a rough estimate of the damage to buildings. The distribution of building types, the average
soil conditions, the deviations in intensities from the regional mean in the microzonation, and the
vulnerability functions have been approximated for this study. Special soil conditions such as the
railway dams or the filled moats, which today are roads enter into the vulnerability assessment even
if no buildings are located on these structures. Further refinement are foreseen in a current project at
the Swiss Seismological Service, in which detailed damage scenarios will be computed based on a
quantitative microzonation and detailed vulnerability assessment of the buildings in the city of
Basel (Fäh et al., 2000).

12
 Influences of building types and microzonation

mean over districts

microzonation

differentiating
differentiating
building types
building types

microzonation

mean building damage in percent

0 - 2.5

2.5 - 5

5 - 7.5

7.5 - 10

10 - 12.5

12.5 - 15

15 - 17.5

17.5 - 20

Figure 9. Outline of the different steps of a damage scenario in Basel, assuming an earthquake with
a intensity between VII and VIII (Fäh et al., 1999).

References
Aki, K. 1988. Local site effects on strong ground motion. "Earthquake Engineering and Soil
Dynamics II - Recent Advances in Ground Motion Evaluation", June 27-30, Park City,
Utah.
Aki, K. and K. Irikura, 1991. Characterization and mapping of earthquake shaking for seismic
zonation, Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Seismic Zonation, August
25-29, Stanford, California , 1 , 61-110.
Ambraseys, N.N. and J.J. Bommer (1991). Database of European strong ground motion records.
Europ. Earthq. Eng., No 2, 18-37.
Ambraseys, N.N., Simpson, K.A. and J.J.Bommer (1996). Prediction of horizontal response spectra
in Europe. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, Vol.25, 371-400.
Barbat, A.H., Moya, F.Y. and J.A. Canas (1996). Damage scenarios simulation for seismic risk
assessment in urban zones. Earthquake Spectra 12, No.3, 371-394.
Bard, P.-Y., Bour, M., Duval, A.M., Godefroy, P., Martin, Ch., Meneroud, J.P., Mouroux, P.,
Terrier, M., Thibault, Ch., Velkov, P., Vidal, S. (1995). Seismic zonation methodology for
the city of Nice, progress report. Proc. 5th Intern. Conf. on Seismic Zonation, Nice, France.

13
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