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    Biomass Burning in Asia

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    Maria Del Pilar Hurtado Sanchez

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    GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL, 17, NO. 4, 1099, doi:10.1029/200368002040, 2003 Biomass burning in Asia: Annual and seasonal estimates and atmospheric emissions D.G, Streets and K. F. Yarber Division and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Iinos, USA. IeH. Woo and G. R. Carmichael (Clie: for Global and Regional Environmental Resch, Unverity of lowa,lowa City, lowe, USA Ressved 24 Janry’ 200; revised 9 Jone 2003; accepted 7 {i} Estimates of biomass buming in Asia are developed to facilitate the modeling of ‘Asian and global air quality. A survey of national, regional, and intemational publications ‘on biomass buming is conducted to yield consensus estimates of “typical” (i.c., non- -year-specific) estimates of open burning (excluding biofuels). We conclude that 730 Te, ‘of biomass are burned in a typical year from both anthropogenic and natural causes, Forest burning comprises 45% of the total, the burning of crop residues in the field comprises 34%, and 20% comes from the buming of grassland and savanna, China contributes 25% of the total, India 18%, Indonesia 13%, and Myanmar 8%. Regionally, forest burning in Southeast Asia dominates. National, annual totals are converted to daily and monthly estimates at 1° > 1° spatial resolution using distributions based on AVHRR fire counts for 1999-2000. Several adjustment schemes are applied to correct for the Aficiencies of AVHRR data, including the use of moving averages, normalization, TOMS Aerosol Index, and masks for dust, clouds, landcover, and other fire sourc ‘Good agreement between the national estimates of biomass buming and adjusted fire counts is obtained (R? = 0.71-0.78), Biomass burning amounts are converted to taiospheric emissions, yielding the following estimates: 0.37 Tg of S02, 2.8 Tz of NOs, 1100 Tg of COs, 67 Tg of CO, 3.1 Tg of CHs, 12 Tg of NMVOC, 0.45 Tg of BC, 3.3 Tg, of OC, and 0.92 Tg of NH3. Uncertainties in the emission estimates, measured as 95% confidence intervals, range from a low of 65% for CO> emissions in Japan to a high of,+700% for BC emissions in India. INDEX 7£RUS: 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Sinxture: Constituent sources and sinks; 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution — urban ‘snl regional (0305); 0368 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composiion aad shemistry; 9320 Information Relsted to Geographic Region: Asia; KEYWORDS: Asia atmospheric emissions, biomass burning gust 2003; published 15 October 2003, Gitition; Streets, D.G., K. F. Yarber, Hl. Woo, and G.R. Carmichael, Biomass burning in Asia: Annual and seasonal estimates anf atmospheric emissions, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 17(4), 1099, dt:10.1029/2003GB002040, 2003 ‘of “typical” amounts of biomass burning in the countries of | Asia for a recent time period. The inventory is intended to 1. Introduction {2} Biomass burning in Asia is an important contributor to air pollution in the region. We cannot hope to understand thie measured concentrations of some of the key species frond the Asian continent, particularly CO, panicles, and NO, without allowing for emissions from biomass burning, Hoivever, our knowledge of biomass buming is extremely limited. Few long-term surveys of buming practices have been undertaken, nor have emission factors been estimated inthe field. When the extreme interannual and intra-annual Yariability of burning is taken into account, itis clear that the ¢ontribution of biomass burning to regional emissions is ‘exceedingly hard to quantify. This paper develops estimates Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union, ‘og 625008200 B002040812.00 complement a similar database of other anthropogenic emissions (biofuel combustion, fossil-fuel combustion, and non-combustion) in Asia [Streets et al., 2003]. In combination, these inventories are being used to drive atmospheric chemistry and transport models, the results of Which are then compared with observations. This work is primarily intended to support three field campaigns con- ucted in 2001-2002: the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission, the NSF/ NOAA Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), and the NOAA. Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT) mission, [5] This paper documents the development ofa three-part inventory conceming biomass buming in The first part (section 2 of this paper) is the creation of a compre- 10-1 10 STREETS ET AL, hensive database detailing annual burning activity in Asia, ‘The buming is divided into three activity types: forest fires, savanna or grassland fires, and the burning of crop residues in the field. All data are calculated and presented at the country level, and, for China, at the provincial level, using national surveys whenever possible. In the second part (section 3), the spatial and temporal distributions of biomass burning are presented in gridded form for all of Asia, using landcover and satelite data to distribute the national, annual activity levels within a GIS environment. In the third part (ection 4), the activity data are used to create emission estimates for nine pollutant species: SO:, NO,, CO>, CO, (Cg, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and NH. Section 5 discusses some applications of this inventory in interpreta- tion of the revent TRACE-P field observations. [4] There are differences among research publications in the definitions used for “biomass burning.” For the pur- poses of this paper, savanna/grassland burning is defined as the sum ofall burning of grasslands arising from prescribed ‘burning, natural fires, and grassland conversion, Forest buming is likewise defined as all on-site burning of forest biomass through both natural fire and deliberate man-made fires for land clearing or other purposes. Owing to limita: tions in the available data, a few exceptions to these two definitions occur on a country-by-country basis, and these exceptions are noted in the text, Without exception, crop residue buming is defined as any deliberate burning of agricultural residues that occurs on site. No ofFsite burning Co biofuel combustion is included! in these estimates, except for comparison purposes. [s] The biomass burning estimates are not for any specific year, but are intended to represent “typical” annual amounts ‘of vegetation bumed and are characteristic of burning in the 1990s. This is intentional but also necessary, because there is no single data repository that contains estimates for all countries and all types of buming for a single year; our inventory is assembled from data of different vintages. In few cases, we use long-term averages of burning taken from survey data; in most cases, though, we use data for individ ual years that were known to be moderate either in terms of the ‘amount of buming that occurred or in terms of the prevailing meteorological conditions (no prolonged periods ‘of drought or rain), We acknowledge the very large interan nual variability in biomass buming. The values presented here are intended to be used in non-year-specific such as future or generic air quality or climate simulations, For specific historical time periods, other analytical approaches are recommended, including the use of satelite data to identify actual buming amounts and locations. Sub- annual burning, ineluding the periodicity of erop burning in the fields before, during, or after harvest, is treated using satellite observations, as described in section 3. Development of an Activity Inventory for jomass Burning 2.1. Methodology [a] An inventory of biomass buming in Asia is developed using a compilation of data from a wide varity of sources, BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA, ‘The general method used is a bottom-up approach, creat: ing burning estimates based on vegetation cover and burs activity data in each country or region. Burning estimates tend to vary widely among publication sources. A com prehensive search of available data was conducted includ- ing examination of the peer-reviewed literature, individual country communications to the U.N. Framework Conven- tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Global Fire Monitot- ing Center publications, FAO statistics, and govemment! institute reports from individual countries. Information from all sources was collated and compared, and then consensus data were selected for inclusion in this inven- tory or used as a basis for the derivation of new values, Much of the literature on biomass buming, however, concems itself with extreme events, such as the 1997 Indonesian fires [Levine, 1999] and the 1987 fires in northem China and Siberia [Cahoon et al, 1994]: we took care not fo include such estimates in our Survey work, which is aimed at quantifying typical buming amounts. In this sense, our work is not truly @ long-term average of fire events in Asia. With very few exceptions, no data exist to develop such averages. [7] Data in the literature on biomass burning were found in three forms: land area burned, emissions resulting from ‘buming, or mass of biomass burned. When the actual mass of biomass bumed was available, those data could be transferred directly into our inventory. When the daia were in the other two forms, they had to be converted using the ‘methods outlined below. {s] For deriving the quantity of biomass burned from an estimate of the area of land bumed, the following equation was used M=AxDXE, i) where M = mass of dry matter bumed: 4 ~ area burned; D = dry matter density; and £ = fractional bum efficiency. For savanna/grassland buming, two possible dry matter (dei) densities were used, depending on geographical location. For tropical Asia, the value used was 4.9 t dm ha! Untergoverumental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1997), For extratropical Asia, the value used was 8.0 t dm he! (based on work by Lavoué et al. 2000). Likewise, fractional bum efficiency was dependent on geographical location of the grassland, The values used were 0.85 (tropical Asia) and 0,90 (extratropical Asia). These burn efficiencies were based on a combination of the approaches used by the JPCC [1997] and Lavoué et al. {2000}, {o] For forest burning, dry matter densities were taken from the UNFCCC country communication guidelines [JPCC, 1997]. Values were specific to type of forest region (tropical, temperate, and boreal), rainfall/humidity (wet, ‘moist, dry, and montane), and (specific to Asian tropics) whether the forest was on insular or continental Asia, Bum efficiency was 0.6 for all types of forest. This is consistent with other biomass burning studies [Hao and Litt, 1994; Lavoué et al., 2000) to] When emissions from biomass buming in a given country or region were available, they were converted into ‘quantity of biomass bumed by dividing them by an activity specific emission factor from Andreae and Merlet [2001]. tn some cases, however, specific reports included enough information on their own calculation techniques that they ould be used to back-calculate the original quantities of biomass bumed. When this was the case, their methods und emission factors were preferred. 2-1, Grussland/Savanna and Forest Burning fu] Caleulation of the quantities of grassland/savanna and forest bumed used the best deta available for a given region, Most studies were specific to a certain sub-region of Asia (Such as Southeast Asia) oF to a particular county: Consistency across the whole of the continent was impos, sible to obtain, except to the extent that one study, that of Hao and Liu (1994), which covered most of tropical Asin, \Was used where it could be corroborated by other work or where it was the only data available 21.1.1. South and Southeast Asia {12} Burning estimates for forest and grassland fires in South and Southeast Asia have been calculated in previous work by #¥a0 and Liu [1994], These data are considered to be Teliable, though somewhat dated now, They were used as default values where no other estimates could be found. The amounts of biomass burned each year from savanna and forest fires were calculated by Hao and Liu [1994] by ‘multiplying activity data (area of land cleared each year) by aboveground biomass density and bur fraction, Their results were then presented at a spatially and temporally vistributed level on gridded maps. To use these data, t original monthly data presented at a resolution of $° % 5° had to be re-allocated to each country based on relative size and location. Then an annual country value was. back. calculated from the monthly data using their temporal distribution formula, Unfortunately for our purposes. the data of Hao and Liu (1994) are representative of burning in the mid-1970s, whereas our inventory is intended to be for a {ypical year in the mid-1990s. This can be a source of erro in our inventory, because we are sure that burning. practices hhave changed since the mid-1970s. However, this uncertainty may not be as large as it might seem, because we surmise that burning increased with increasing rural population until 1985-1990 and then started to decline due to better land ‘management practices and an awareness of the ecological damnage caused by excessive vegetation buming. This belie! is largely based on aneedotal information, however, because few long-term burning surveys have been conducted and the trends are in any case obscured by interannual variability Data from /fao and Liu (1994) were used in our inventory for the following South and Southeast Asian countries: for forest and savanna buming in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, ‘Sri Lanka, and Thailand: for forest burning (only) in Indonesia and Laos; and for grassland burning (only) in the Philippines and’ Vietnam: In many eases we had corroborative data for more recent years that supported the values of Hao and Liv [1994]; in the interests of inter-regional consistency, however, we adopted the Hao and Liu (1994) values. [4] A second data source was the country communic: tions to the UNFCCC (available at http://unfece int! Fesource/natcom/netable.htm#nonannex!). When these STREETS ET AL.: BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 10-5 values represented a complete description of burning activ: ity, they were considered to be more reliable than the general or dated sources (such as Hao and Liu [1994], because they were compiled for an international body by the ‘countries themselves, who may reasonably be assumed 0 have the best knowledge of local buming practices. These values were often incomplete, though, and so were seldom used in this paper for anything but comparison purposes, unless they eould be corroborated by other ‘sources, Houghton and Ramakrishna [1999] have pointed out some of the problems with countries’ accounting of their carbon sources and sinks in their official communications to the UNFCCC {is]_Relevant values in the UNFCCC reports are non-COs emission estimates for forest and grassland conversion (in the land use change and forestry section), and non-CO; emission estimates for prescribed burning of savanna (in the agriculture section). Only non-CO. emissions were consid- ered, because the IPCC guidelines for COs calculations Subtract an estimate of CO re-absorption through subse- quent vegetation re-growth, and this is incompatible with the needs of an analysis simply of the buming component. Non-CO> emission estimates (such as CHy emissions) wer therefore converted to mass of biomass bumed using the calculation guideline worksheets supplied by the /PCC (1997). Such biomass buming estimates are therefore relic able only to the extent that each country followed the IPCC ruidelines in its own calculations, {ic} For both savanna and forest buming, vatues reported at this level are incomplete for our purposes. Whereas this Paper seeks to quantify all biomass burning (both from natural or accidental fies and deliberate burning), the IPCC calculation guidelines indicate that only deliberate burning need be included in a country communication. We therefore supplemented the IPCC values with additional data from ‘other sources on natural forest fires when possible. This ‘method was used in calculating our reported values for forest fires in Indonesia, Japan, and Laos, and for grassland ‘burning in the Philippines. [09] For Indonesia, a special entry for CO, emissions from naturally occurring forest fires was available in the country communication. From this entry, the mass of dry ‘matter bumed was calculated using the CO, emission factor of Andreae and Merlet (2001). Biomass burning from forest and grassland conversion was back-caleulated from non- CO; emissions and the IPCC calculation workshoet. Dry ‘matter burmed in natural forest fires was added to dry matter ‘burned on-site in forest and grassland conversion to supply ‘ur final forest buing estimate. No bur efficiency fraction ‘was applied because it was assumed to be implicit in the ‘country communication calculation. Lis] Emissions for Laos were calculated similarly to Indonesia, by supplementing burning from forest and grass. Jand conversion with a value for natural forest fires from the Lao PDR Country Repor for the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (available at hitp:/svww.adre.or jp/countryrepor. LAO/LAOeng99/La0%20PDR%2099.him), To this natural burning estimate, a burn efficiency of 0.6 was applied. (2) For the Philippines, the value presented in our inventory was calculated from non-COs emissions for 10-4 STREETS ET AL prescribed savanna buming. No other souree of data for natural or accidental grassland fires was available to supplement the prescribed buming total. Moreover, the Philippines grassland burning estimate of Hao and Liu [1994] is zero, Since it is clear from the country commu nication that some burning does indeed occur, the Hao and Liu estimate was replaced by the value derived from prescribed burning. This may not represent all grassland burning in the Philippines, but it is a more accurate estimate than previously available and is based on the country’s own assessment, [G0]. For comparison purposes, other Asian countries were examined, and non-natural forest and savanna burning estimates were calculated whenever the data were available in country communications. These burning estimates were subsequently compared to our final estimates, and in all ceases they were found to be less than or equal to our calculated values for total burning. It is assumed that the remaining dry matter bumed is due to natural fires, which re not addressed in the country communications. [bu]. Similarto the UNFCCC country communications are the 11 country reports for the ALGAS project of the Asian Development Bank on greenhouse-gas control (available at hitp://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/ALGAS default. asp). These reports present biomass burning emission esti- mates in the same format as the UNFCCC reports, and were treated for this work using the same methodology. The values derived from ALGAS were used mosily for eompar- ison purposes, except for the burning of agricultural residues in Vietnam, for which they were used as the primary source because no other estimate was found (available at hitp:// niweb03.asiandevbank.org/oes00 19p.nsfipages/VIET_ES). [=] A final source examined was the Food and Agricul- ture Organization (FAO) publication [Z40, 1997]. This report provides @ country-by-country summary of the annual change in forest cover between 1990 and 1995. For our purposes, we attributed all change to forest burning, although loss of forest actually has a variety of causes. We converted annual change into mass bumed by multiplying the deforestation rate by biomass density (based on work by the JPCC [1997}) and a 0.6 bum efficieney fraction. This result was then used as an upper bound on total possible forest buming in each country (ie. if all forest loss were due to buming). [e3] All countries examined in our study were represented in the FAO [1997] report, and in most cases the other estimates we obtained fell below that upper bound. That was not the ease, however, for forest buming in Vietnam, ‘which we initially based on work by Hao and Liu {1994}. Hao and Liv [1994] estimate 40.8 Tg dm burned per year, whereas the upper bound based on the FAO [1997] is 15.0 Te dm per year. This lower number was more consistent with other studies, such as the value of 8.2 Tg dm reported for forest and grassland conversion in ALGAS (back-calculated following guidelines in work by the [PCC (1997). Since the value of 8.2 Tg in ALGAS is known 10 only represent a portion of all forest burning, the final value aiven in our inventory for Vietnam is the value derived from work by the £10 [1997]. This estimate is one of the most ‘uncertain in our compilation, BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA. 2.1.1.2, East and Northeast Asi [2s] The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) publishes a series of country reports detailing forest fre news, often of significant fire outbreaks. Many of these Intemational Forest Fire News (IFFN) pub- lications were consulted for this project (available at itp: \www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/fireglobe/iffn/country country. hum) In general, when forest fires are quantified in these publications, they are presented in units of area of land burned per year. For our purposes, these figures were converted to mass of dry matter bumed using equation (1). This method was used as our primary souree of data for forest burning in the Republic of Korea. For other countries, itwas only used for comparison and corroboration purposes [bs]. For the Republic of Korea, a S-year average of forest area bummed (1987—1991) was gathered from the IFFN [United Nations/Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ ECE), 1995]. Area bumed was converted to mass of dry ‘matter burned using a density of 213 dm ha | from the UNFCCC country communication worksheets for temperate broadleaf forests [/PCC, 1997] and a bum efficiency of 0.6 (based on the range of burn efficiencies of Hao and Liu [1994] and Lavoué et al. (2000). [bs]. Reliable data for grassland burning in China are not available due to the remoteness of these ecosystems; how- ver, siatistes on grassland coverage by Chinese provinces is available [National Research Council, 1992]. We deter- mined the area of grassland burned in China by assumin the same percentage of grassland bumed each year as in Mongolia, This resulted in our multiplying China’s cove ‘age area by 0.0297, the quotient of area of grassland burned in Mongolia [Lavoué er ai., 2000] and total grassland coverage in Mongolia (UNECE, 1999]. Once the area burned by province was determined, we used equation (1) to convert the area into mass of dry matter bumed. The grassland coverage area was presented by the National Research Council in two categories: “usable” and “unus- /'“degraded” land, To the usable portion, we applied a of §.0t ha’ and a burn efficiency of 0.6 PCC [1997] and Lavoué et al, [2000] consensus values). For the unusable‘degraded portion, the biomass density was decreased to 2.0 tha ' [/PCC, 1997], The total mass of dry ‘matter burned is the sum of the usable and unusable degraded grassland burned for each pro’ [7] Itis possible that this method overestimates grassland burning in western China, because of differences in climate, vegetation, or soil moisture between Mongolia and the western provinces. However, it should be noted that in the analysis of satelite fire-count data that follows (section 3), biomass buming in this part of Asia appears to be signif icantly underestimated, especially for Xinjiang, Qinghai and Xizang Provinces of China and Mongolia itself Frankly, these grasslands are so remote and un-monitored that any estimates of the extent of buming should be considered speculative at present. Es) China forest-fire data are from Wang er al. (1996). In their original paper, data are compiled for a 42-year period, 1950-1992. The figures presented in this paper are the ‘annual averages for each province during this period. On the basis of work in their paper, an annual deforestation Table 1, Parameters Used in the Calculation of Crop Residue urn iy Mater Bumed inthe Pradcton Fito Tye ot —wReidue Dry Mater South Ret Barn Negettion Ratio" Faction’ Ash" _of Asa’ _etisency! Comm 20 040 0M Oil cops rs Oss oR Rise 136 ORs oR, Rootsubers 0.2 on 7 06s Soybeans 021 on 7 Oa Stoucme 03 or 7 Ok Unless noted otherwise all valu ae frm Koopmans el Kappeln 997) C. Venkatraman, Indian Insitute of Textnology. Bombay, personal “Hand Lis (1994), Shum et a (1997) ‘Le 1993}, ‘Swehler and Sic 1987) estimate (area) was multiplied by a provinee-specitic bio- mass density. The resulting value was then multiplied by a bum efficiency of 0.6. [3] The value for forest buming in Japan was derived from Japan's country communication to the UNFCCC Methane emissions from on-site buming of forest matter afer forest and grassland conversion were used in conjune- tion with the IPCC calculation guidelines (IPCC, 1997] to bback-caleulate mass of dry matter burned in deliberate fies, No additional quantities were added to reflect other types of forest fires, 60] No definitive data are available for fires in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Our value is ca lated from an estimate of 114,000 acres bumed in 1997 (avery dry year) (available at http:/‘vwwaswaternews com archives/areglobal/Tnorkor8 html). This extreme year is converted to an average year using the ratio of average-to- maximum buming (0.1655) for neighboring Heilongjiang Province of China from Wang et al. [1996]. Vegetation tbumed is then calculated using the IPCC vegetation density UPC, 1997] and a 0.6 burn fraction, bi] Forest and grassland buming amounts for Mongolia ‘were taken from Lavoué etal. [2000}, who present estimates of area bumed in Mongolia over a 37-year period (1960 1997), We took an annual average of these data and then converted the area bumed to mass of dry matter. For savanna’ grassland buming, we used a density of 8.0 1 dm hat and bum efficiency of 0.9. For forest fires, the density used was 63.5 t dm ha’ for mixed broadleaficoniferous boreal fovests [JPCC, 1997] and the bur efficiency was 0.6. [fe] ‘The forest area bumed in Taiwan, China, was taken from Lin [1992]. The area burned was converted to mass of | dry matter using a biomass density of 185 t dm ha! appropriate for tropical continental Asia [/PCC, 1997} and a bum efficiency of 0.6. For certain countries, savanna’ wssland buming was assumed to be nonexistent due to the nature of their vegetation coverage. For these counties, namely Japan, the Republic of Korea, DPRK, and Taiwan, STREETS ET AL. BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 0 China, zero values are assigned in the grassland burning category. 2.1.2. Crop Residue Burning [3] Crop residue buming was calculated based on total crop production using the following equation: R=PXNXDKBXE @ Where R = total mass of erop residue bumed in the field: P= ctop production; N = exop-specifie production-10- Table 2. Typical Annual Amounts of Biomass Bumed in Asian Counties, With Biofuel Use Included for Comparison Grassland, Fors Crop, Tol Biot Ci Ty Tg Residues Ty? “Tp Use Tet Bangladesh bo 8s nN 7 Baton oo 07 ob i2 ine oo 0080 a Cambodia 74 a9 6a China so 10 4 Toda 86 “ pity Infoesia By se 140 Sagan 0 ie 39 Kore, DPR 00 09 ® Korea Rep.of 0.0, 17 u Laos 49 a3 22 Malaysia % ost 55 Mongolia 2» wo te Myenmar 19 40 2 Nepal 00 20 Pakistn 29 0 Philippines 02 m Singipore 00 a0 Sa aka 80 02 Taiwas, China 19 03 Thailand 2 t Viet b Asia Toa 150, 01300 “Ene in colar not mud with «footnote a Lagoa "For the general method wsed for cop resis, see text encepions 0 this method are noted in adliona fines below Frm Pa at Lit “Data are fom Sven: etal (2003), including fHekwood, agra resides an dred animal waste “The coverage anc is rm National Reseach Counc {1992}, converted to area bumad using work of UNECE [1] ‘rea bumed is convert t dry mater ing Lav etl (2000) "Valu are fom Wang e a (1996) (Cleulsted using data gathered for the cousry communication to the unrcee Caleulted using county communication wo the UNFCCC and the emission taco rom Andree and Mere [2001] ‘Cacubsted trom 1997 atea bumped (sce text) This extreme year i ‘converted tan average yearning Mang (1996). Negation tne ‘aloud using IPCC vegetation density and burn facta [PCC 197) ‘Area bared is fom CVECE (1995), converte using work of PCC [1907 Hao and Lin 994), and Lave at (200), “Couniry corimunication tothe UNFCCC back-caleulated using IPCC [1997] and Lao PDR Country Report for ADR (ee text, “avorage annual area of savanna and forest burned fo Lavoad eta 2000}, Ave is convened wo dey miter umd sing wrk of Lavoue ea [2900] and 2c 11997), Ars harmed estimate from Lin (1992), conver biomass bum ving work of PCC 1997] "Area caked ftom work of FAO (1997), convened to dry mater using Work of PCC [197 missions data from ALGAS study (se ex), converted dy ster ‘work of PCC 11997) Lovo et el (200) kof IPCC [1997] and 0-6 STREETS ET AL BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA. Vietnam Thailand Taiwan, China Sti Lanka ‘Singapore Philippines Pakistan Nepal Myanmar Mongolia Malaysia Laos Korea, Rep. of Korea, DPR Japan Indonesia Inia China Cambodia Brunei Bhutan | sangocec = | . rn) 100 120-140 «160180200 ‘Amount Burned (Tg dry matter) Figure 1. Estimates of the amounts of vegetation bumed annually, by country and biomass type. residue ratio; D = dry-matter-to-crop ratio; B = the percentage of dry matter residues that aré bumed in the field, and F = the crop-specific burn efficiency ratio. 4] Provincial-level crop production data for China were taken from the China Statistieal Yearbook {China State Statistical Bureau, 2000). For all other countries, data were feathered from the FAO Statistical Database, FAOSTAT [FAO, 2001}, Crops included are com, oil crops, rice, roots/tubers, soybeans, sugarcane, and wheat. These are similar to the crop types chosen by Hao and Liu [1994] In combination, these crops are believed to cover all significant crop-residue burning. Crop-specific production- to-residue ratios are based on work by Koopmans and Koppejan {1997], Lu 1993], and Sirehler and Stitzle [1987]. The corresponding dry matter fractions are taken from Koopmans and Koppejan [1997]. The percentage of Airy matter bumedl in the field is taken for South Asia from Indian experience (C. Venkataraman, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, personal communication, 2001) and from Hao and Liv [1994] for the rest of Asia. This ‘component of the calculation isa large source of uncertainty and points to a need for surveys of farmers’ burning practices. Crop-specific bum efficiency ratios are based on work by Turn et al. [1997]. A complete summary of parameter values used is provided in Table 1 [is] When mote reliable country-specific data were avail- able, we deviated from the methodology above. These exceptions are noted in Table 2. Other sources of data for crop residue buming were the individual country commu- nications to the UNFCCC. When these data were available, they were considered more reliable than data estimated using the methodology outlined above. This is. because the countries themselves compiled them, and itis assumed that these countries have bette information on local burning practices. When emissions data from the buming of agri cultural residues in the field were available at all in country communications, they were included as a subset of the ‘agriculture section. To calculate the quantity of dry matter burned from emissions data in the crop-residue burning section of the country communications, the IPCC work- Tible 3. Typical Annual Amounts of Biomass Burned in the Provinces of China, With Biofuel Use Included for Comparison ee of Chios With Biofuel Use Ineluded for Comparison Grassland, Forest Crop < Proce Ty Te Residues Te! Tp Use Ty ko on 6s Devine a0 03 fae a6 20 Gans 60 3 SGuingdone as a Gem 09 46 Guizhou 6 ty Hien 40 as Hebe, 00 sa Heiongiang 9s “a Henan on ks Hone Kong 00 00 Hates 03 89 Hina 03 3 diag 00 1 diane 03 so iin os 60 Using 1 2 ‘er Mongo! so 27 Ningxia 00 os Ginga Bo 02 Stans o1 23 ‘Shondong 00 aa Sharzha 00 as Shen or 13 Sichuan oF 31 Tenn 00 os Niniang or 6 Xoane 01 ta Yomn 32 28 Dejane a 33 Gin Tot Ho. “Values based on work by ZPCC (1997), LN/ECE [1990], Lavon eta (2000), and National Research Counc (1992) se text). "Wag tal. (196) ‘See text fr th calculation meio used ‘Dain are ftom Soweto” al (2003), inchadng fuelwood, agrisulual Fics, and did ania waste, shiets could not be used. This was because it would fist be ‘necessary to know which types of crops were included in eich country’s study, and the relative production of each 1p (information that is not available). Therefore, for the Purposes of this inventory, emissions data were converted to Mass of dry matter bumed using emission factors. from Andreae and Meriet {2001}, This was used as our source of Sop residue buming data for Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanks, 22, National Estimates of Biomass Burning (os) The resulting estimates of typical annual amounts of biomass bumed in each Asian country ean be found in ‘Table 2 and Figure 1. It can be seen that many estimates g0me from Hao and Liu [1994]. This is because we found that their values agreed well with many of the other stimates we found in national and international statistis, «und their use provided an additional element of consistency cfoss the continent; where we preferred an alternative vilue or method, that is duly noted in Table 2. Table 3 Presents similar information for each province of China, STREETS ET AL: BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 10-7 Figure 2 summarizes the information for four major regions of Asia. We estimate that 730 Ty of biomass are bumed in Asia in a typical year, comprising 330 Tg of forest (45%), 250 Te of erop residue (34%), and 150 Tg of grassland (20%). Our findings indicate that the greatest amount of biomass burning oceurs in Southeast Asia (Figure 2), where 330 Tg of biomass are estimated to be burned in an average yeat: This is in great part because of the large amount of slash-and-burn agriculture and timber harvesting that occurs there. China and South Asia follow with 180 and 170 Tg per year, respectively. Croperesidue burning dominates biomass buming in each of these two regions. Compared to other regions, our Other East Asia region contributes little 10 the total amount of biomass bumed in Asia with 34 Tg bumed in an average year, ‘mostly Mongolian grassland. In this region, there are few forests to burn, and the buming of agricultural residues is largely banned [17] For comparison purposes, we also show in Tables 2 and 3 the amounts of biofuel consumed [Sirvets ct al, 2003]. These are the quantities of fuelwood, agricultural residues, and dried animal waste that are gathered and bummed, largely to provide cooking and space heating needs in residential stoves, Across the Asian continent, we estimate that 79% more biomass is used to generate energy than is bumed in the open (1300 Ty versus 730 Tz). In China, this pereentage is much higher (154%), because litle vegetative material is wasted; rather itis collected and used (460 Tg biofuel versus 180 Tg biomass burned in the open) [bs] There are some significant differences in the values ‘we estimate for regional biomass buming in Asia and those of previous publications on the topic. For China, our Yalues come from forest-fire data caleulated for each of the 31 Chinese provinees by Wang et al. (1996). These regional values yield an annual-average total for China of 25 Tg biomass bumed in forest fires. This is lower than the estimate of 40.5 Tg of Galanter et al. [2000], after adjustment to conform to the regions in our study. Galanter et al. [2000] also calculated adjusted values. for savanna fires in China wo be 9.2 Tg and crop residue buming to be 65.4 Tg, considerably lower than the values we caleulate. We speculate that these shortfalls are due to the fact that significant amounts of biontass burning. are unreported 2] Our values for forest and savanna burning in South and Southeast Asia are very close tothe Hao and Liu [1994] regional estimations of 70 Tg savanna burned and 340 Tg forest biomass burned in “Tropical Asia” (combined South and Southeast Asia). This is not surprising, because we adopted their values for many countries. Our estimate for forest fires in Southeast Asia is similar to that of Galanter et ai, {2000}, but our estimate for savanna and grassland burning is higher than theirs. For Indonesia our value for savanna fires (based on work by Hao and Liu (1994)) is higher than the values listed in country communications for the UNFCCC and ALGAS. We assume that the additional grassland buming can be attributed to natural fires (not included in those other studies) Our value for forest burning, 68 Tz, based on combined values for preseribed and natural 10-8 STREETS FT AL; BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 2so Gren CJ soo | | I Forest _ I Savanna/Grassland 20 — B ao |- : | = 10 100 _ so ° :_| hina Other Eas Asia Southeast Asi South Asa Region Figure 2. Regional comparison of vegetation burned including Taiwan, China); Other Fast Asia (lapan; ‘Taiwan, China); Southeast Asia (Brunei, Cambodia, annually, by biomass type. Regions are China (not Republic of Korea; DPR Korea; Mongolia; and Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, ‘Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam); and South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), fires in the country communication to the UNECCC, is slightly lower than Hav and Liv (1994) (76 Tg), and significantly lower than the total deforestation estimate given by F10 [1997]. This is reasonable since only a portion of deforestation is from biomass buming. Fs South Asia by Galamter et al. [2000] are higher ‘Table 4. Comparison of Estimates of Biomass Bumed (Tx) in Indi’ than ours by slightly more than one third. For India our estimates are similar to those reported by Reddy and Venkataraman [2000] for savanna fires, forest fires [Reddy and Venkataraman, 2002}, and erop-residue burning (C. Venkataraman, Indian institute of Technology, Bombay, personal communication, 2001), It seems to us that certain ———‘epesion Type Tot Sevenna Crop Vegetation County/Repion ___Yeur_Grasnd__Forest__ Residue __Consumed Reference Todia ws 24 10332140 3421 aga 1991) S Asia ne au a5 1566 20 Galaner ea, (2000) India 1985186 Ions Seah 1991), Indias" ws 950 m2 mo 2902 RYevich, Harvard Universi, ‘enon communication, 2001 India 1990) s2 267 ely and Yanktaraman [2000 Ini 1990, ios Tsk S370 236 Ofer era (1996 India 198697 390 ‘Rey and Venkataraman (2002) India 199697 se (C"Vinkataraman, Indian teste of Techology, Bombe, personal cocmunication, 201 India ‘opie ke a a no this work S.Asia ‘spi! i 7 Ho. iso this work “Here n/s = at ape Sjndia” includes Bangladesh, Bt, India, Malives, Myanma, Nepal, Pakistan, and Soi Lanka, STREETS ET AL,: BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA Figure 3. Asian distributions of (a) fire duration from AVHRR; (b) aerosol index duration from TOMS: (©) cloudiness; and (d) precipitable cloud. colher estimates of biomass buming in South Asia (see ‘Table 4) are unreasonably high [see Prasad et al, 2001], such as the values of 342 Tg for India [4lwia, 1991] and (624 Tg for India (South Asia) (Olivier et al, 1996]. Of all the regions in our study, India stands out as urgently in need ‘of a comprehensive survey of biomass burning, duc to the ‘wide variation in published estimates. 3. Spatial and Seasonal Allocation of Biomass Burning [4] Biomass burning is different from anthropos combustion in terms of its causes, locations, and timing. An annual estimate of bumed vegetation cannot be allocated fover time and space in the same way as fuel combustion [Sieets er al, 2003]. The buming of crop residues is strongly correlated with agricultural practices (harvesting cycles, types of crops, ete.). Grassland and forest fires can correlate with both natural causes (lightning, precipitation, Temperature, tc.) and human causes (land clearing for agriculture or habitation, timber harvesting, etc.). Because many of these factors are impossible to ascertain in the developing world, satellite information can play an impor- tant role in detecting and analyzing fire behavior [Duncan et al, 2003; Heald et al., 2003; Woo et al, 2003]. The spatial and temporal variation of biomass burning emissions for this work, therefore, is derived from satellite information. We allocate the annual-regional emission data to daily- ‘gridded form using satellite fire count information, and then ‘aggregate them into monthly, seasonal, and annual gridded emission fields 3 [1] We selected the 2-year period of January 1999 to December 2000 for the allocation procedure, because these 2 years are the closest available data set to the intensive light ‘measurement campaigns (TRACE-P and ACE~Asia) that can help to verify ourmethodology. Also, these 2 years have been. shown to be typical (not excessively dry or wet) in terms of the amounts of burning that occurred. Duncan et al. [2003] presented interannual and intra-annual variation of satellite= ‘derived fire counts using a 22-year record of NASA Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AD data (available at http:/toms.gsfe.nasa,gov/acrosols! acrosols.html) and a 4-year record of Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data (available at hitp!/shark_ .esrin. esa.itionia/FIRE/AFATSR/). In contrast t0 the ENSO-it duced droughts of 1997-1998, which greatly enhanced ‘Asian biomass burning, 1999 and 2000 were shown by Duncan et al. (2003] to be rather typical; the only unusual STREBTS ET AL. BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA ausea Fev Boban oa © Fam Ow Fev an Sonal] e207 perm) feaoge pm) soo] Feooe ota) x Fea057 daa) Re gr5m ge of ona xk la ° A i momo soum—eobon =< wioo=—«o000 ‘eben (00) Bou (0) oT "FE vs. Bioburn (Grassland) = FC va. Bioburn (For R-Oe 0 Fa078 Or) FE = 0:87 (Norm) m = 0.90 (Norm) “ 200 praoao eg) Fe=080 Bowka) Rode (an x * 9001 preosoday z ear Ore) Leer Nr) rere) re (a Figure 4. Correlations between regional biomass buming amounts and AVHRR fire counts in 1999 2000, by” vegetation type (lotal, eropland, grassland, different cumulative adjustment procedures (Normalized, Normalized + Moving Averaged + Al Adjusted). aspects were slightly enhanced burning in India and slightly reduced buming in Indonesia, both in 1999. [2] In our work, NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) fire count data from the World Fire Web (WEW) (available at hisp:/www.avm.jee.ivterwiw/ swfw.htm) and TOMS-AI data (available at http:/toms.gsfe. hasa.gov/aerosols/aerosols.html) are used to provide daily spatialtemporal variability representative of the period, a described below. The AVHRR sensor on board the NOAA series of polar orbiting satelites provides full global daily coverage (I.1 kin x 1,1 km to 2.4 km x 6.9 km resolution) in five visible and infrared channels, and can be used 10 dotect active fires, The WFW uses AVHRR data to map factive fire events using a special contextual algorithm. ‘Additional information about our method of using AVHRR and WEW fire count data can be found elsewhere [Hoo et ‘al, 2003; Stroppiama etal, 2000]. Since AVHRR fire count mages provided from the WFW are a snapshot along the satelite track, the designated overlaps remain in the data set ‘and forest), for the raw data (Original) and three Normalized + Moving Averaged, and (along the track and strip edges). Also, the WFW data se thas two major problems arising from incomplete availa ‘of AVHRR information; cloud interference and limited satellite coverage. [is] To adjust for missing data due to cloud cover and satellite coverage, we apply @ normalization factor 10 the fire count data [IWo0 et al, 2003}, ie. be Sam; = FC, ms Fat cos(lay), "BY where FCouy 1 = adjusted fire count (ith day, j-th. gid FC, ;~ original fire count (-th day, jth grid), Sam, = sah Tite coverage frequency (ith day, jth grid); Cl, = eld coverage frequency (+h day, j-th grid); DCpay = maxim data count of each grid; and cos(lay) = latitude adjuster fo DC (Fadians, jth grid. STREETS ET AL reuj6u9—— “isang ‘Shaan Gina Ningxia Xiang | Hongkong | ‘a Korea, DP Mongot | Taiwan, Ccamboai| Indonesia aoe | Myanmar . i paisnipe ty~ 36 ~ BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA Figure §, Normalized differences between regional biomass buming amounts and AVHRR fire counts for the raw data (Original) and three different cumulative adjustment procedures (Nonmalized, Normalized + Moving Averaged, and Normalized + Moving Averaged + Al adjusted), [44] However this process docs not account for no: data grid cells or for data error conditions. For example, if Sam, ,< Cla, jor Sam, y~ Cl, = 0, then FC) cannot be calculated In this case, we apply lower and upper bounds to the adjusted fire count, In cases where FC, , = 0 and Sam, , = 0, we use 3-day moving averages (only applied to zero fire-count cells), as follows: FC Fot.is3.) Flmn45 = when, FCag.u) $0, where FCoyy 1-1, 7% adjusted fire count (i-th day, j-th grid); and FCay, 1, adjusted fire count (i+1th day, j-th grid. [is] IF there ‘was trouble in the satellite on-board system or at the receiving station, or if elouds persisted for more than several days, the moving average scheme cannot improve the AVHRR fire count data, In this case we use TOMS-AL data as an additional information source. How- ever, the TOMS-AI data must be used with caution because it detects all aerosols, including dust and man-made smoke. ‘Therefore we applied several masks to filter the TOMS-AL signal that may not be caused by biomass burning. These ‘masks include (1) the classification of cloud conditions with STREETS ET AL in using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) daily precipitation fields; (2) landcover maps [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1999) to remove ddust interference; and (3) maps of anthropogenic: smoke sourees, including coal mine fires oil wells, and gas drilling sites [Podiysocki, 2000; Steinshouer et a. 1999]. Figure 3 illustrates the data sets that were used to set the mask eis [Hol Figure 3a shows the maximum number of consecutive days of fire detection within the 2-year period. Xinjiang, Nei Mongol, Liaoning, and Hebei Provinees of China as well as Mongolia and parts of Southeast Asia and South Asia, show high continuous occurrence of fire, The cloudiness image for the same period (Figure 3c) shows that cloud imerference of the AVHRR fire count was lower in South Asia and continental Southeast Asia during this period, whereas the interference was higher in the Southeast Asian island countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines). Fires below clouds eannot be detected by any satellites. One might think there would be litle chance of fire below cloud because of the relatively high chance of rain, higher humid- ity, and lower temperature. However, it is also possible that in some situations there might be a higher chance of fire below cloud, since lightning is a particularly important cause ‘of fire in the world’s boreal forests, Therefore itis important to distinguish between cloud with rain and cloud without rain. The NCEP daily precipitation fields were used to distinguish cloud with rain from eloud without rain (Figure 34). The southern parts of Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines show higher incidence of clouds with precipitation. So, we presumed that the regions with high cloudiness and low precipitable cloud would mean a higher chance of “no-detection” in the AVHRR fire count. In that case, TOMS-AL information ccan help detect fire information that is missing from AVHRR. Figure 36 shows the same kind of duration information as Figure 3a but for TOMS-AI data, It shows high values of Al in Pakistan, Northwest India, and Xinjiang an! Hebei Provinces of China that is not likely to be biomass buming, because the landcover is primarily desert or sparse Superimposed AVHRR average fire counts at 1° 1° resolution and oil/gas field locations in westem China, westen Mongolia, and northem India and Pakistan BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA ‘Table 5. Emission Factors for Biomass Burning (g ky") Vegeiaion Type 50) NO, NMVOC™ CO_BC_OC Ni COs Ci SivannaGnaslind 035 598 973 G5 048 34 Los Topical Fores 057 245° 19.2 104 066 52.13 1580 Exatrpical Forst 146 21.79 107 0369.15 14 1369 47 Crop Residue 04383 157 92069 3313 1515 27 "Source: Andra and Meret 2001) Am emision factor for NMVOC was devve by combini emission fcors of many individual NMVOC species fom Merl (2001 grassland. Most likely it is due to windblown dust. These non-fire Al values are masked out by our landcover mask, because all landeover classes except for cropland, savanna’ jrassland, and forest are exeluded from the procedure, [7] Because of the uncertain factors described above, allocation of emissions based on fire counts is imperfect at best. We tested our fire count adjustment methodologies using correlation analysis between the regional bi burning estimates (from section 2) and the sum of fire ‘counts within each region, We further separated them into the three different buming types (burning of agricultural residue, savanna/grassland, and forest) using landcover classes. Because the spatial resolutions of the landeover ‘and fire count data are very different (0,008° x 0,008° versus 1° x 1°), a single landeover cell eannot effectively represent one fire-count cell, in most cases. Therefore we first developed a procedure to estimate the area fraction of landcover types within each 1° x 1° grid cell u 30 s arid cells. Using the estimated area fra three landeover classes in each 1° > 1° grid cell, we split the fire count of each grid cell by the fractions ‘and then ‘aggregate all fire counts within cach region by buming type. The regional biomass burning amounts by the three different buming types are then calculated using this, equation: Where FC; = the regional sum of fire counts of the ish ‘burning type (agricultural, grassland, and forest) in the k-th region: LC, = the area fraction of i-th landeover within grid i: FC)= the fire count in the j-th grid; and P= the number of irids in the region, [Gs]. The actual amount of biomass bummed in a given grid cell will be influenced by many factors, such as the probability of fire occurrence over a long time period, the type of agricultural waste and regulations pertaining to the burning of it, accumulated biomass prior 0 burning, climatological variation, etc. It is not possible to account for ‘most of these factors over a large geographical area because data sets other than landcover are not available with the necessary detail. Our approach, therefore, should be con- sidered as an initial effort to characterize emissions from different types of burning at continental sea [4] The correlations between regional biomass buming ‘estimates and fire counts by burning types and by the three different adjustment schemes are shown in Figure 4. The STREFTS ET AL. BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 10 ‘Table 6. Total National Emissions From Biomass Burning in Asia Ge Comisy SO, NO, CO; CO_Gik, NMIVOO BC_OC Nii hime 0000 Y6OK) $4270 ay 3700 76 l Kove, Rep. of| 2800 170 3129 eos DPR deo 180 6938 Mongolia 17 18) 52000 2500 97430 Tawa, Chin 02 so $2 200 OT Bie 00 3 0 00} Cimbasa 6162 22000 110057190, Indeocsia 48-310 150000 000 5301600, Liew 13 78 39000 2400 140420, Mslysn 13-57 Sd 2400 150 40 Myanmar 34 160 97000 6300 390 1200 Potigpies 1269 37000 2400 130-40 Smaps 00 00 0 OO Taian’ — 2819) $8000 $200 290 930 Misesm 15130 $3000 2900 150500 Bingldssh 93 '¢3 30000 1900 '88 40 Bown 07-32 “T0078 33s In 7 540 200000 12000. 430 2200 Neral S&S Hom 71029” 0 Pikitn 6061 22000 1200 3921090 Silks 23. 10 “6809 430 27 29 Hs Asis Toai__370 2500 1100000 67000 3100 450 3300 920 ‘adjustment schemes are cumulative, as identified in the caption, For these correlations, we divided India into four sub-regions so as to make its area more comparable with the other regions. Over the 2-year period, the moving ‘erage is the best method to adjust fire count without ‘consideration of buming type (Figure 4, top lefi) in terms ‘of; coefficient of determination (R?). However, the Al adjustment scheme is better for the slope, AIL three fajjustment schemes show much better agreement than tte original fire count (0.25 versus 0.71-0.78), Forest ‘numing (bottom right) shows by far the best agreement forall four cases (R? = 0,780.90). This is the best data ‘set for three reasons: (1) the fires are larger, longer lasting, and more intense, making them easicr to observe from space; (2) forested areas are better defined and less ‘intermingled with human habitation and oil/gas exploration aclivities, which can produce confounding satellite Fesponses; and (3) governments show more concem about tracking and reporting forest fires for reasons of safety, air poltution, and control of timber exploitation, making the biomass burned data more reliable. On the other hand, the data sets on crop burning and grassland burning are much Jess certain. Crop burning may be illegal, is certainly small ‘aid dispersed, and leads to a weaker AVHRR response: sfassland burning occurs in remote regions that are mostly beyond the means and the interest of government to ‘monitor. These uncertainties are reflected in the correla- tions. For croplands, the adjustment schemes lead to values of R? = 0,52-0.62, though in all three cases {treat improvement over the raw data (R? = 0.26). For giasslands, all four sehemes produce lower values of R? = 0137-0.46, (%) I is possible that the grassland case may be further confounded by some differences in the landcover classfi- {ation schemes used in the biomass burning estimations anel the fire count adjustments. Figure 4, bottom left, shows that there are a number of Southeast Asian countries, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, that have estimates of grassland burning but no fire counts assigned to grass- lands. Al these countries have a lot of forest burning. Some ‘of the buming observed fiom space may be occurring in areas that fallin between conventional definitions of forest and grassland, for example, light woodland. When we tested this hypothesis by, transferring 90% of the grassland 10 forest land, the R® values for grassland improved. This suggests the need to include more vegetation types in Future work [si] Figure 5 shows an altemative comparison between biomass buming estimates and fire counts by region. The biomass buming estimates are the standard line (0), and the differences for regional fire eounts for the original data ‘and for each adjustment scheme are presented. The scale of the Y axis is dimensionless because the data are hormalized by the following equation (using fire count as an example: PCL = FC Fw 6) where FCjyn, «= normalized fire count (k-th region); FC, = fire count by adjusted schemes (k-th region); FCnen ‘mean value of fire counts (all regions); and FC, ~ standard deviation of fire counts (all regions). [52] Values greater than zero mean that the fire count is| higher than the estimated biomass burned amount, and ‘values less than zero mean thatthe fire count is lower than the biomass burned amount. In general, the regional biomass burned amounts are well matched with the fire counts after adjustment. The fire counts stil tend to be somewhat lower than expected in Laos, Malaysia, Thai- land, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh: and higher than expected in Mongolia and the Xinjiang and Xizang Prov- inces of China. One possible reason for these disagree- ‘ments may be fire density. Since the satellite pinpoints the Table 7, Regional Emissions From Biomass Buming (Ty) and Share of Total Emissions nisms Ty Region __ 50, NO, CO, CO Ch, NMVOC_BC_OC Ni Chine 008082 280 160S* 37 _o4ro73 023 (noe East Avia A112 084 021 020 nas Southeast Asa 1 032-18 37 021 Least donee os.031 150 99083 16 mosea4s 012 South Ast 019071 270 17081 40 “O11 086 023 India 07 086 200 12042 oss nas 017 ‘Asia tol biomass 037°28 1100 67 3 045 3.3 092 uring Asin other emissions’ 3425 $700 210 100, 21 ta Asin woul emissions? 3477-9900 280 110, 25 10 28 Biomass buming 1.1 111228 29 Ie 3233 share, ‘Emin fom energy, inst, and agris [Shee ea, 2003] Teal anthropogenic emissions, isting biomass baring Dut ex ing raul sourees such as volcanoes, biogenic NMIVOC, and CH from welds [Siete a, 2003) 10-14 STREETS ET AL: BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 600: 3802 700 NOs | ialeery 600 mco CHe 5 500 voc: BC | 400 oc art {95% Confidence Interval, + 8 100: LIER me omer species (295% confidence intervals). Jocation of fies in 1 km x 1 km grid cells, the number of fires generally reflects the intensity of the fires. However, the biomass density in a given area can be different for the diflerent vegetation types. The fires in Southeast Asia are more likely to be the buming of forests and agricultural residue, whereas in Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Xizang the fires are more likely to be grassland fires that have lower vegetation density. Another reason can be interferences, AS shown in Figure 3, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have higher precipitation, but are lower in cloudiness and Al sand therefore have litle chance to be increased by the fire-count adjustment schemes. In contrast to this, Mongolia ‘and Xinjiang have good characteristics to be increased. However, the normalized fire count was decreased after ‘adjustments, in comparison to the original values, bet we applied several masks to exclude “non-biomass buming” fire counts, [ss] We paid special attention to the possiblity of man- rade fires like oil/gas well flares in several regions where ‘exploration and extraction activities are well-known, such as Pakistan, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. As presented in Figure 6, the AVHRR satellite can detect these “non: biomass-buming” fires because their sensing algorithm is highly dependent on temperature, We masked any 1° > 1° grid cells located near known oil/gas fields [Steinshouer er al., 1999) and showing many consecutive days of fire counts, These grid cells are excluded because biomass. for more than one week in a given grid cell. By applying these masking procedures, the fire count shows better agreement with the biomass bummed amount, as shown in Figure 5. Nevertheless, despite all our adjustments to the raw fire count, anoma- lies persist for Xinjiang, Xizang, and Mongolia. These regions may require more in-depth study to pinpoint the sources of the fires seen in the AVHRR data. Also, the centre region in Figure 6 is dry and dusty, whieh provides f severe test to our dust mask in the TOMS-AL adjustment scheme. Of all regions in our Asia domain, itis Xinjia Province that stands out as by far the greatest unexplained anomaly. 4, Atmospheric Emissions [s4] To calculate emissions from biomass burning, the mass of dry matter burned of each type (tropical or extra- tropical forest, savanna/grasstand, or crop residue) is: mul- tiplied by an appropriate emission factor from Andreae and Merlet (2001}, using the equation E=MxF @ Where £ = total emissions of the species: IM = mass of dry matter burned; and F = species- and source-specilic ‘emission factor (see Table 5). [ss]. Table 6 shows that the emissions of biomass burning in Asia contribute 0.37 Tg of SOs, 2.8 Tg of NOs, 1100 Ty of COs, 67 Tg of CO, 3.1 Tg of Cli, 12 Tg of NMVOC, 0.45 Tg of BC, 33 Tg of OC, and 0.92 Ty of NH. The majority of these emissions originate in Southeast Asia, a region responsible for about the same quantity of emissions STREETS BT AL BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA 10-15 Northem China % I yo Ni. "Wim Central China ‘© Mongol, N. China 7 §.China, Taiwan & SA Figure 8. Definition of (top) regions and (bottom) monthly CO emissions (Gg) from biomass buming, egions combined (Table 7). For some species, ‘biomass burning is a major contributor to total anthropogenic: ‘emissions, comprising 20-30% of the total. In Table 7, we show that this is true for four species in pa GO (24%), NMVOC (23%), and BC (18%) [Sereeds et al 2003). In contrast, biomass burning contributes little (<5%) ‘o tolal emissions of SOs, CH, and NH, {s] Estimates of the uncertainties in these emissions have been performed in the broader context of total ‘anthropogenic emissions in Asia [Sireets et al, 2003], where additional details of our uncertainty ‘can be found. We acknowledge that for soi ‘biomass burning in some countries very litte is known, ‘and our choices for this inventory in such cases rely c types of heavily on inferences of activity levels from quite limited ‘and uncertain statistical information and the use of emis- sion factors that are few and often not obtained from fi studies. The uncertainty in our estimates is obtained by combining the coefficients of variation (CYV, or the standard deviation divided by the mean) of the activities and emission factors, each derived separately for the three types of burning. the $2 source regions, and the nine chemical species. We tried wherever possible to use harmonized data across different source types and regions, even though the reporting practices of countries are not always consistent and available [=] ‘Since there is no rigorous way to judge the accuraey of activity estimates, expert judgment was used, classified 10-16 STREETS ET AL BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA ire 9. Spatial distribution (1° x 1° resolution) of seasonal CO emissions (t season~! per grid cell) from biomass buming: (a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, and (d) fal. according to a ten-point scale of CV, which varied for each group of provinces or countries based on the amount of information available and its perceived statistical quality For the CV of emission factors, the uncertainty estimates provided by Andreae and Merlet [2001] were used. We have assumed that the underlying emission factor measure ‘ments are normally distributed [Suutari et al, 2001], but a case can be made for a lognormal distribution of combus- tion emission measurements (T.C. Bond et al., A technol- ogy-based global inventory of black and organic carbon ‘emissions from combustion, manuscript submitted to Jour= nal of Geophysical Research, 2003). {ss} Combining uncertainties requires assumptions about the dependence or independence of parameters. To combine multiplicative, independent random variables such as actiy= ities and emission factors, we used Goodman's formula for the product of variables. The relative 95% confidence intervals for emissions are caleulated as 1.96 times CV. However, combining uncertainties across provinces within a country, for example, is more problematic. When uncertain- ties are independent they can be combined in quadrature; this can be done for different sectors such as industry residential, agriculture, biomass burning, ete, However. since the same emission factors may be used to calculate the emissions from two provinees, for example, these Uncertainties are not independent and should not be added in quadrature, The same is true of two different sources for which an identical emission factor is used. For biomass ‘burning, then, uncertainties are added linearly when the same emission factor is used, and uncertainties in emissions from different provinces are also added lineatly. These aggregated uncertainties are then independent of each other and are combined in quadrature. [0] Figure 7 shows the results for each species for seven prototypical Asian regions. Our general findings are that emissions are known least well in India and the rest of South Asia, Emissions are best known in Japan and the other East ‘Asian countries. Emissions of gases are known better than particles. The overall uncertainty in emissions forall of Asia {sas follows, ranked in increasing order of uncertainty and measured as 95% confidence intervals: +250% (CO), 4280% (SOa), 4280% (CH,), +290% (NO,), #290% (NMVOC), #300% (CO), 310% (NH), +420% (OC), and 450% (BC). So, for example, we are 95% confident that Asian emissions of CO> are within +250% ofthe stated value. As the confidence intervals are usually greater than the mean, ‘our presentation of relative confidence intervals >+100% ‘might suggest that the lower confidence interval is negative, EE STREETS ET AL BIOMASS BURNING IN ASIA. 10-17 Figure 10, Spatial distribution (1° x 1° resolution) of annual CO emissions (t yr”! per grid cell) from biomass burning by vegetation type: (a) agricultural residues, (b) grassland, (€) forest, and (2) total However, the true confidence interval is not symmetric about the mean, because some of the underlying variables are lognormally distributed. A better interpretation of “2400”, for example, might be “within a factor of thatthe confidence interval would be 20-00% of the mean given. 5. Discussion and Conelusions [0] Carbon monoxide is the species most widely studied in regional and global modeling of biomass. burning missions, and good agreement is obtained with another estimate of Asian CO emissions from this source. In a study of Asian outflow to the Pacific Ocean, Bey et al. [2001] used a value of 61 Tg CO yr, in good agreement With our estimate of 67 Tg. However, for TRACE-P analysis, our CO emissions estimate for ‘open vegetation buming’ in March 2001 appears to be about 30% lower than is estimated by Heald et al. (2003] and Palmer et al [2003], ‘The values of Duncan et al. [2003] for Asia are also higher than ours. Their method is a combination Of satellite data analysis and inventory development, similar to ours. For Southeast Asia, including Indonesia ‘and Malaysia, their estimate of CO’ emissions from bio- ‘mass burning is 118 Tg. Theit region includes an unspee- iffed part of China, but even if we include all of China, we only estimate about 45 Tg. Emission factors are very similar The inclusion of the large burning event of 1997-1998 will necessarily raise their long-term average above ours. Much of the literature on amounts of biomass bbuming in Asia, including work by Galanier et al. [2000], Bey et al. {2001}, Duncan et al. [2003], Heald et at [2003], and Palmer et af. (2003), use variants of the same ‘unpublished inventory developed by Logan and Yevich at Harvard University, This means that (I) they all generate similar estimates, and (2) it is not possible to uncover the ccauses of differences with other researchers” estimates. Clearly, there are good reasons to try to resolve inventory discrepancies in the future. A study by Schult [2002] estimated 108 Tg CO for all Asia for the period 1997 2000 from ATSR satellite data, This is closer to our value. Schultz sealed data from Hao and Liu [1994], which we believe is high in some regions of Asia, as we have shown ‘earlier in this paper. [oi] Typical monthly distributions of Asian biomass’ buming emissions have been computed by us from the

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